YouGov’s MRP projection for London, while bad for Labour, isn’t as catastrophic as the Freedman prediction, and is better for the Greens than Reform
Is that a good thing? Or does it just allow an increasingly London centric Labour party with a London centric media to ignore the kicking they took in Scotland and Wales (and probably Birmingham and the Liverpool-West Yorkshire strip).
'We might have gone from first to third in Wales, but at least we held Barking...'
Except that YouGov's MRP has Reform as most likely to win most votes in Barking....
YouGov's London polling still looks pretty catastrophic for Labour to me.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz78x703lrvo Nato says there is no provision for member states to be suspended or expelled from the military alliance after a report said the US could seek to suspend Spain over its Iran war stance. Reuters quoted a US official who said an internal Pentagon email had suggested measures for the US to punish allies it believed had failed to support its campaign. The email also suggested reviewing the US position on the UK's claim to the Falklands islands in the south Atlantic, which are also claimed by Argentina. A Nato official told the BBC that the organisation's founding treaty "does not foresee any provision for suspension of Nato membership, or expulsion". Spain's leader has also dismissed the report. The BBC has contacted the Pentagon and UK government for comment...
Trump seems to have this idea that NATO is the US and a set of minions who are obliged to follow and help his every move.
And that simply isn’t the case NATO is mutual defense if you are attacked by someone - and the closest it’s got recently to a NATO member being attacked is Greenland
Pentagon just told Britain that the Falkland Islands might not be British anymore.
Not because Argentina deserves them. Because Keir Starmer wouldn’t send a warship.
That is where Britain stands today. A nation that once ruled a quarter of the planet, reduced to a country that can have its territories handed to a South American populist as punishment for insufficient loyalty to a man who cannot spell the word alliance.
Trump was invited to meet the King. Full state visit. The works. Red carpet, Buckingham Palace, the ceremonial humiliation of a host nation pretending not to notice that their guest has spent every day since the invitation was extended publicly mocking them. He called the Prime Minister a coward. He called British aircraft carriers toys. He has treated the special relationship like a doormat and wiped his feet on it every single morning before breakfast. And Britain just stood there and took it.
Every time.
His own niece put it better than any analyst ever could. He hates weakness above all else. Not enemies. Weakness. And nothing triggers him faster than a friend who absorbs the punishment and comes back asking for more. Because that is not friendship to him. That is sport.
Starmer still has a phone. He still has a palace on speed dial. And somewhere, buried under layers of diplomatic caution and Foreign Office nervousness, there may still be an actual human being capable of saying enough.
Cancel the visit. Tell the King to stay home. Do not give this man the photograph. Because the moment that picture is taken, he will use it to finish the job.
YouGov’s MRP projection for London, while bad for Labour, isn’t as catastrophic as the Freedman prediction, and is better for the Greens than Reform
Is that a good thing? Or does it just allow an increasingly London centric Labour party with a London centric media to ignore the kicking they took in Scotland and Wales (and probably Birmingham and the Liverpool-West Yorkshire strip).
'We might have gone from first to third in Wales, but at least we held Barking...'
Except that YouGov's MRP has Reform as most likely to win most votes in Barking....
YouGov's London polling still looks pretty catastrophic for Labour to me.
YG gives Labour control of fifteen boroughs - although they concede about half of these are close to call - whereas Freedman and LondonCentric have Labour holding just four. Those are massively different media stories
I don't think some of you get it. There is a buzz around Manchester. And not just the bees on the buses.
A dynamic, thriving economy led by investment and infrastructure. With a pick yourself up and work ethos, combined with pride in your community.
An awful lot of good that the King of the North can bring to the wider UK.
I'll mark you down as a fan, then...
What's his route back to The Commons?
Lord Stringer
Past performance does not guarantee future returns - your investment remains at risk If he's the future, name the seat.
I just did. Graham Stringer retires, promoting a by-election in his Blackley seat. Which he's held since 1997...
As I’ve said I’m on the Burnham train reluctantly.
A Northern MP “who cares about us” is a good start. But he is for controlled immigration?
I expect he will go straight through immigration to prosperity.
People are upset about immigration because they are poor. People are upset about immigration because their town is dying. Get the economy buzzing and fewer people care about immigrants.
I've made this point forever. Lets say Farage becomes PM and deploys the Royal Navy to Stop All Boats.
Great! Are people happy? No. Because their issue hasn't been fixed. How long would we have to wait before they started to complain that they're still poor and their town is still a shithole?
YouGov’s MRP projection for London, while bad for Labour, isn’t as catastrophic as the Freedman prediction, and is better for the Greens than Reform
Is that a good thing? Or does it just allow an increasingly London centric Labour party with a London centric media to ignore the kicking they took in Scotland and Wales (and probably Birmingham and the Liverpool-West Yorkshire strip).
'We might have gone from first to third in Wales, but at least we held Barking...'
Except that YouGov's MRP has Reform as most likely to win most votes in Barking....
YouGov's London polling still looks pretty catastrophic for Labour to me.
It has Reform at less than a 5% lead which is why I picked it as something Labour might realistically celebrate holding.
I don't think some of you get it. There is a buzz around Manchester. And not just the bees on the buses.
A dynamic, thriving economy led by investment and infrastructure. With a pick yourself up and work ethos, combined with pride in your community.
An awful lot of good that the King of the North can bring to the wider UK.
I'll mark you down as a fan, then...
What's his route back to The Commons?
Lord Stringer
Past performance does not guarantee future returns - your investment remains at risk If he's the future, name the seat.
I just did. Graham Stringer retires, promoting a by-election in his Blackley seat. Which he's held since 1997...
As I’ve said I’m on the Burnham train reluctantly.
A Northern MP “who cares about us” is a good start. But he is for controlled immigration?
I expect he will go straight through immigration to prosperity.
People are upset about immigration because they are poor. People are upset about immigration because their town is dying. Get the economy buzzing and fewer people care about immigrants.
I've made this point forever. Lets say Farage becomes PM and deploys the Royal Navy to Stop All Boats.
Great! Are people happy? No. Because their issue hasn't been fixed. How long would we have to wait before they started to complain that they're still poor and their town is still a shithole?
If he gives up the progress Mahmood has made then he’s going to get destroyed. It is impossible to do the kind of change you’re asking for with the economic background and the time he will have.
As we near the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum the peoples verdict will not be decided by academic modelling of alternatives.
It will be determined by their own experience of travelling the UK and EU. Visibly the UK is falling further and further behind our European neighbours, apart from the core Remania parts of London and SE England.
One of the Brexit paradoxes is that the places in the UK that are doing relatively well economically are those that voted to Remain. Leave was voted for by pensioners and areas in economic decline and those areas have continued and even accelerated that decline.
You've made similar comments several times over the years.
But aren't you just posting a 'tourist guide' view ?
Old twee cottages and new skyscrapers might look pretty and affluent but your Remainia is filled with people weighed down with debt, unable to afford their own homes and under threat from globalisation and AI.
Whereas those Leave voting areas often have housing easily affordable to those with a useful skillset.
The ONS used to publish a happiness index map of the UK but seems last one is 2014/5 Coincidence?
I think they replaced it with concepts such as anxiety. I was quite the fan of the concept, tbh: one of the more sensible things Cameron did was to introduce the index but it didn't last.
(Does that imply they think he did it deliberately?)
The crime of murder requires intent to kill or and intent to do serious bodily harm. This of course is rare in motor cases. The fact that someone has been charged means there is some sort of evidence/interpretation of the facts pointing at that possibility. But that is miles away and a long journey from the police station to a murder charge actually appearing on an indictment at a Crown Court trial. It's a high bar at that stage.
It can be used as an encouragement to plead to the lesser offence of manslaughter or death by dangerous driving.
My inference is that it was perhaps a road rage incident - driver takes objection to cyclist and deliberately mows him down. Which is very different to driving dangerously - no matter how dangerously - and the cyclist being an unfortunate casualty. Even the most dangerous of dangerous drivers aren't setting out to cause harm to other road users.
Road rage is a good bet, I think. Since the suspect is of no fixed abode and was driving without insurance I'm presuming they're some kind of bottom feeder, probably drunk or high at the time and decided to mess up that cyclist who got in their way.
While cycling I've been endangered, and physically threatened, by some outwardly quite respectable people, the kids have been deliberately endangered or intimidated as well. Had someone pull out on me, just continued despite a very loud shouted warning, despite my best attempts at avoidance I glanced off the driverside B pillar and fell into the centre hatching of a thankfully wide road. They stopped 300m further down the road, passenger in the car, I presume his wife, otherwise I don't think he'd have stopped. Indignantly told me he was a magistrate and threatened violence if I didn't delete the photo I'd taken of him and the car reg. Not your normal bottom-feeder.
As we near the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum the peoples verdict will not be decided by academic modelling of alternatives.
It will be determined by their own experience of travelling the UK and EU. Visibly the UK is falling further and further behind our European neighbours, apart from the core Remania parts of London and SE England.
One of the Brexit paradoxes is that the places in the UK that are doing relatively well economically are those that voted to Remain. Leave was voted for by pensioners and areas in economic decline and those areas have continued and even accelerated that decline.
The noteworthy thing after ten years is how little investment supporters of Brexit put into making their project work. They should for example be cheering Starmer for trying to ameliorate some of the negative effects without going back into the Single Market, rather than carping from the sidelines.
At most they make a "it isn't as bad as you think" argument. Which doesn't show much confidence in their own project.
It isn't a "project".
It's a principle.
Brexiteers aren't putting any effort into making their principle work either, in that case.
It's not about Brexiteers, it's about the British people.
This administration has already chosen to do so by applying VAT to private schools, for example.
Ah. I actually agree with you from the other perspective. While Brexit does do some permanent economic damage that isn't the worst thing about it (from my PoV - yours is different obviously).
Having said that, I think most people want to know if they are better off economically in or out and whoever is on the debit side of that assessment will struggle to make the case for other benefits - and Brexiteers aren't trying very hard. And so Brexit fails because most people think it is a failure
I don't think some of you get it. There is a buzz around Manchester. And not just the bees on the buses.
A dynamic, thriving economy led by investment and infrastructure. With a pick yourself up and work ethos, combined with pride in your community.
An awful lot of good that the King of the North can bring to the wider UK.
I'll mark you down as a fan, then...
What's his route back to The Commons?
Lord Stringer
Past performance does not guarantee future returns - your investment remains at risk If he's the future, name the seat.
I just did. Graham Stringer retires, promoting a by-election in his Blackley seat. Which he's held since 1997...
As I’ve said I’m on the Burnham train reluctantly.
A Northern MP “who cares about us” is a good start. But he is for controlled immigration?
I expect he will go straight through immigration to prosperity.
People are upset about immigration because they are poor. People are upset about immigration because their town is dying. Get the economy buzzing and fewer people care about immigrants.
I've made this point forever. Lets say Farage becomes PM and deploys the Royal Navy to Stop All Boats.
Great! Are people happy? No. Because their issue hasn't been fixed. How long would we have to wait before they started to complain that they're still poor and their town is still a shithole?
If he gives up the progress Mahmood has made then he’s going to get destroyed. It is impossible to do the kind of change you’re asking for with the economic background and the time he will have.
I didn't say that. There are things that can be done which are in isolation not enough but cumulatively build into steady progress.
My point is that people don't want to end immigration, they want to be better off and feel like they have a smidge of control in their life. Focus on deporting the darkies and you can't keep people happy - racism is not their aim.
Am I the only PB Labourite who doesn't want Burnham to take over?
Twice failed to win a leadership election.
Twice in recent months has made himself look like a total knob.
Happy to turn his back on the people of Manchester.
Has an air of entitlement to become PM.
Being a professional northerner, man of the people seems to have got plenty of people excited. But not me.
People are putting a lot of hope in him. How much is in part because he's not in Westminster, as obviously if that is the appeal it evaporates swiftly.
I don't think some of you get it. There is a buzz around Manchester. And not just the bees on the buses.
A dynamic, thriving economy led by investment and infrastructure. With a pick yourself up and work ethos, combined with pride in your community.
An awful lot of good that the King of the North can bring to the wider UK.
I'll mark you down as a fan, then...
What's his route back to The Commons?
Lord Stringer
Past performance does not guarantee future returns - your investment remains at risk If he's the future, name the seat.
I just did. Graham Stringer retires, promoting a by-election in his Blackley seat. Which he's held since 1997...
As I’ve said I’m on the Burnham train reluctantly.
A Northern MP “who cares about us” is a good start. But he is for controlled immigration?
I expect he will go straight through immigration to prosperity.
People are upset about immigration because they are poor. People are upset about immigration because their town is dying. Get the economy buzzing and fewer people care about immigrants.
I've made this point forever. Lets say Farage becomes PM and deploys the Royal Navy to Stop All Boats.
Great! Are people happy? No. Because their issue hasn't been fixed. How long would we have to wait before they started to complain that they're still poor and their town is still a shithole?
If he gives up the progress Mahmood has made then he’s going to get destroyed. It is impossible to do the kind of change you’re asking for with the economic background and the time he will have.
I didn't say that. There are things that can be done which are in isolation not enough but cumulatively build into steady progress.
My point is that people don't want to end immigration, they want to be better off and feel like they have a smidge of control in their life. Focus on deporting the darkies and you can't keep people happy - racism is not their aim.
It sounds like to me you think he can get away with just not doing immigration. He can’t.
Not interested in it is fine. And hope and optimism is good. But he’d be utterly mental to sack Mahmood surely?
Labour and the Tories are going to face slaughter in 2 weeks, and to a lesser extent are the Lib Dems. What about the scenario and odds for a situation with Starmer, Badendoch and Davey ALL resigning and 3 new leaders in place by September..
I don't think some of you get it. There is a buzz around Manchester. And not just the bees on the buses.
A dynamic, thriving economy led by investment and infrastructure. With a pick yourself up and work ethos, combined with pride in your community.
An awful lot of good that the King of the North can bring to the wider UK.
I'll mark you down as a fan, then...
What's his route back to The Commons?
Lord Stringer
Past performance does not guarantee future returns - your investment remains at risk If he's the future, name the seat.
I just did. Graham Stringer retires, promoting a by-election in his Blackley seat. Which he's held since 1997...
As I’ve said I’m on the Burnham train reluctantly.
A Northern MP “who cares about us” is a good start. But he is for controlled immigration?
I expect he will go straight through immigration to prosperity.
People are upset about immigration because they are poor. People are upset about immigration because their town is dying. Get the economy buzzing and fewer people care about immigrants.
I've made this point forever. Lets say Farage becomes PM and deploys the Royal Navy to Stop All Boats.
Great! Are people happy? No. Because their issue hasn't been fixed. How long would we have to wait before they started to complain that they're still poor and their town is still a shithole?
If he gives up the progress Mahmood has made then he’s going to get destroyed. It is impossible to do the kind of change you’re asking for with the economic background and the time he will have.
I didn't say that. There are things that can be done which are in isolation not enough but cumulatively build into steady progress.
My point is that people don't want to end immigration, they want to be better off and feel like they have a smidge of control in their life. Focus on deporting the darkies and you can't keep people happy - racism is not their aim.
I'm certainly pro immigration but can still see that we need to make the changes Mahmood is driving. There is more to the issue than racism and Islamophobia although both play their part. The numbers from the Boris wave were too high, certainly without corresponding increases in house building.
Labour and the Tories are going to face slaughter in 2 weeks, and to a lesser extent are the Lib Dems. What about the scenario and odds for a situation with Starmer, Badendoch and Davey ALL resigning and 3 new leaders in place by September..
Davey is a curious one. The Lib Dems should be profiting hugely right now, but aren’t yet. Odd. I guess they don’t have a compelling nationwide offer, sufficient to gain attention. Locally they’ve proven rather good.
X Connor Gillies@ConnorGillies NEW: Police Scotland say a 38 year old prisoner has been arrested and charged after a sexual assault on a woman within HMP Greenock.
For Women Scotland@ForWomenScot When we raised the issue of men in women's prisons last year, the @theSNP gov had a choice. They could have complied with the law and removed these men or fight us in court. They chose the latter.
Labour and the Tories are going to face slaughter in 2 weeks, and to a lesser extent are the Lib Dems. What about the scenario and odds for a situation with Starmer, Badendoch and Davey ALL resigning and 3 new leaders in place by September..
I feel like Davey is safe but I've long thought it is in his interest to go before the next GE. He's been around for some time and exceeding 2024 will be tough, so go out on top.
Labour and the Tories are going to face slaughter in 2 weeks, and to a lesser extent are the Lib Dems. What about the scenario and odds for a situation with Starmer, Badendoch and Davey ALL resigning and 3 new leaders in place by September..
Davey is a curious one. The Lib Dems should be profiting hugely right now, but aren’t yet. Odd. I guess they don’t have a compelling nationwide offer, sufficient to gain attention. Locally they’ve proven rather good.
They don't provide that thrilling anti-establishment rush that disaffected voters crave.
People don't just want alternatives to Labour/Conservative, they want to feel disruptive too. And even though the LDs would be a seusmic shift in that sense, they're still seen as one of the same old gang.
I don't think some of you get it. There is a buzz around Manchester. And not just the bees on the buses.
A dynamic, thriving economy led by investment and infrastructure. With a pick yourself up and work ethos, combined with pride in your community.
An awful lot of good that the King of the North can bring to the wider UK.
I'll mark you down as a fan, then...
What's his route back to The Commons?
Lord Stringer
Past performance does not guarantee future returns - your investment remains at risk If he's the future, name the seat.
I just did. Graham Stringer retires, promoting a by-election in his Blackley seat. Which he's held since 1997...
As I’ve said I’m on the Burnham train reluctantly.
A Northern MP “who cares about us” is a good start. But he is for controlled immigration?
I expect he will go straight through immigration to prosperity.
People are upset about immigration because they are poor. People are upset about immigration because their town is dying. Get the economy buzzing and fewer people care about immigrants.
I've made this point forever. Lets say Farage becomes PM and deploys the Royal Navy to Stop All Boats.
Great! Are people happy? No. Because their issue hasn't been fixed. How long would we have to wait before they started to complain that they're still poor and their town is still a shithole?
Farage would reverse ferret on that as rapidly as his Councils reverse ferreted on the savings they would make, because the claims were fake and meaningless - but the great unwashed fell for the Farage flim-flam.
It just needs the question - so how would the Navy stop the boats, and how would Nigel Bismarck send them back when Paris says "Non!" ?
Labour and the Tories are going to face slaughter in 2 weeks, and to a lesser extent are the Lib Dems. What about the scenario and odds for a situation with Starmer, Badendoch and Davey ALL resigning and 3 new leaders in place by September..
On seats, the LibDems should do OK - they won more local by-elections last year than any other party, after all. Where they’re not active, they’ll probably lose votes in droves to the Greens, leaving them with a local government vote distributed in a similarly efficient manner to the 2024 GE vote
I don't think some of you get it. There is a buzz around Manchester. And not just the bees on the buses.
A dynamic, thriving economy led by investment and infrastructure. With a pick yourself up and work ethos, combined with pride in your community.
An awful lot of good that the King of the North can bring to the wider UK.
I'll mark you down as a fan, then...
What's his route back to The Commons?
Lord Stringer
Past performance does not guarantee future returns - your investment remains at risk If he's the future, name the seat.
I just did. Graham Stringer retires, promoting a by-election in his Blackley seat. Which he's held since 1997...
As I’ve said I’m on the Burnham train reluctantly.
A Northern MP “who cares about us” is a good start. But he is for controlled immigration?
I expect he will go straight through immigration to prosperity.
People are upset about immigration because they are poor. People are upset about immigration because their town is dying. Get the economy buzzing and fewer people care about immigrants.
I've made this point forever. Lets say Farage becomes PM and deploys the Royal Navy to Stop All Boats.
Great! Are people happy? No. Because their issue hasn't been fixed. How long would we have to wait before they started to complain that they're still poor and their town is still a shithole?
If he gives up the progress Mahmood has made then he’s going to get destroyed. It is impossible to do the kind of change you’re asking for with the economic background and the time he will have.
I didn't say that. There are things that can be done which are in isolation not enough but cumulatively build into steady progress.
My point is that people don't want to end immigration, they want to be better off and feel like they have a smidge of control in their life. Focus on deporting the darkies and you can't keep people happy - racism is not their aim.
It sounds like to me you think he can get away with just not doing immigration. He can’t.
Not interested in it is fine. And hope and optimism is good. But he’d be utterly mental to sack Mahmood surely?
You're not listening.
It isn't about bloody immigration. And who said sack Mahmood? But the government - despite actually achieving stuff - isn't getting credit. Why? Because its not about bloody immigration, its about poverty.
Let's assume he does leave her and the policies alone. That does nothing. What he does is drive a renaissance in community spirit as has happened in Manchester. Our community, our people. Make the streets visibly tidier. Transform local shops as Stockton have done. Pride in who you are and where you're from. Then the cumulative bits on immigration may translate into support.
But nobody wins by just saying deport muslims. Because whether people think muslims are the problem or not, muslims aren't the problem. As we would find out if Rupert the bear Lowe went round and deported 2m of them as threatened. Does Fuck All to help white poor communities, as they would quickly point out.
Am I the only PB Labourite who doesn't want Burnham to take over?
Twice failed to win a leadership election.
Twice in recent months has made himself look like a total knob.
Happy to turn his back on the people of Manchester.
Has an air of entitlement to become PM.
Being a professional northerner, man of the people seems to have got plenty of people excited. But not me.
The problem is: if not Burnham, then who? I can't make a strong case for Burnham, but neither can I make a strong case for any of the other possible contenders. All of them seem to me to be either unlikely to win over the Labour Party to secure the leadership, or unlikely to win over the general public at the ballot box, or both. Whereas Burnham could, potentially, do both. It's quite a conundrum.
Am I the only PB Labourite who doesn't want Burnham to take over?
Twice failed to win a leadership election.
Twice in recent months has made himself look like a total knob.
Happy to turn his back on the people of Manchester.
Has an air of entitlement to become PM.
Being a professional northerner, man of the people seems to have got plenty of people excited. But not me.
The problem is: if not Burnham, then who? I can't make a strong case for Burnham, but neither can I make a strong case for any of the other possible contenders. All of them seem to me to be either unlikely to win over the Labour Party to secure the leadership, or unlikely to win over the general public at the ballot box, or both. Whereas Burnham could, potentially, do both. It's quite a conundrum.
I don't think some of you get it. There is a buzz around Manchester. And not just the bees on the buses.
A dynamic, thriving economy led by investment and infrastructure. With a pick yourself up and work ethos, combined with pride in your community.
An awful lot of good that the King of the North can bring to the wider UK.
I'll mark you down as a fan, then...
What's his route back to The Commons?
Lord Stringer
Past performance does not guarantee future returns - your investment remains at risk If he's the future, name the seat.
I just did. Graham Stringer retires, promoting a by-election in his Blackley seat. Which he's held since 1997...
As I’ve said I’m on the Burnham train reluctantly.
A Northern MP “who cares about us” is a good start. But he is for controlled immigration?
I expect he will go straight through immigration to prosperity.
People are upset about immigration because they are poor. People are upset about immigration because their town is dying. Get the economy buzzing and fewer people care about immigrants.
I've made this point forever. Lets say Farage becomes PM and deploys the Royal Navy to Stop All Boats.
Great! Are people happy? No. Because their issue hasn't been fixed. How long would we have to wait before they started to complain that they're still poor and their town is still a shithole?
If he gives up the progress Mahmood has made then he’s going to get destroyed. It is impossible to do the kind of change you’re asking for with the economic background and the time he will have.
I didn't say that. There are things that can be done which are in isolation not enough but cumulatively build into steady progress.
My point is that people don't want to end immigration, they want to be better off and feel like they have a smidge of control in their life. Focus on deporting the darkies and you can't keep people happy - racism is not their aim.
It sounds like to me you think he can get away with just not doing immigration. He can’t.
Not interested in it is fine. And hope and optimism is good. But he’d be utterly mental to sack Mahmood surely?
You're not listening.
It isn't about bloody immigration. And who said sack Mahmood? But the government - despite actually achieving stuff - isn't getting credit. Why? Because its not about bloody immigration, its about poverty.
Let's assume he does leave her and the policies alone. That does nothing. What he does is drive a renaissance in community spirit as has happened in Manchester. Our community, our people. Make the streets visibly tidier. Transform local shops as Stockton have done. Pride in who you are and where you're from. Then the cumulative bits on immigration may translate into support.
But nobody wins by just saying deport muslims. Because whether people think muslims are the problem or not, muslims aren't the problem. As we would find out if Rupert the bear Lowe went round and deported 2m of them as threatened. Does Fuck All to help white poor communities, as they would quickly point out.
Am I the only PB Labourite who doesn't want Burnham to take over?
Twice failed to win a leadership election.
Twice in recent months has made himself look like a total knob.
Happy to turn his back on the people of Manchester.
Has an air of entitlement to become PM.
Being a professional northerner, man of the people seems to have got plenty of people excited. But not me.
The problem is: if not Burnham, then who? I can't make a strong case for Burnham, but neither can I make a strong case for any of the other possible contenders. All of them seem to me to be either unlikely to win over the Labour Party to secure the leadership, or unlikely to win over the general public at the ballot box, or both. Whereas Burnham could, potentially, do both. It's quite a conundrum.
The problem with the overdone Northern persona is that whilst a positive in some parts of country, it’s at best a neutral elsewhere, in places he has to win. There has to be more to it. As such he needs to be tested. Can he help Labour win outside his backyard?
I don't think some of you get it. There is a buzz around Manchester. And not just the bees on the buses.
A dynamic, thriving economy led by investment and infrastructure. With a pick yourself up and work ethos, combined with pride in your community.
An awful lot of good that the King of the North can bring to the wider UK.
I'll mark you down as a fan, then...
What's his route back to The Commons?
Lord Stringer
Past performance does not guarantee future returns - your investment remains at risk If he's the future, name the seat.
I just did. Graham Stringer retires, promoting a by-election in his Blackley seat. Which he's held since 1997...
As I’ve said I’m on the Burnham train reluctantly.
A Northern MP “who cares about us” is a good start. But he is for controlled immigration?
I expect he will go straight through immigration to prosperity.
People are upset about immigration because they are poor. People are upset about immigration because their town is dying. Get the economy buzzing and fewer people care about immigrants.
I've made this point forever. Lets say Farage becomes PM and deploys the Royal Navy to Stop All Boats.
Great! Are people happy? No. Because their issue hasn't been fixed. How long would we have to wait before they started to complain that they're still poor and their town is still a shithole?
If he gives up the progress Mahmood has made then he’s going to get destroyed. It is impossible to do the kind of change you’re asking for with the economic background and the time he will have.
I didn't say that. There are things that can be done which are in isolation not enough but cumulatively build into steady progress.
My point is that people don't want to end immigration, they want to be better off and feel like they have a smidge of control in their life. Focus on deporting the darkies and you can't keep people happy - racism is not their aim.
It sounds like to me you think he can get away with just not doing immigration. He can’t.
Not interested in it is fine. And hope and optimism is good. But he’d be utterly mental to sack Mahmood surely?
You're not listening.
It isn't about bloody immigration. And who said sack Mahmood? But the government - despite actually achieving stuff - isn't getting credit. Why? Because its not about bloody immigration, its about poverty.
Let's assume he does leave her and the policies alone. That does nothing. What he does is drive a renaissance in community spirit as has happened in Manchester. Our community, our people. Make the streets visibly tidier. Transform local shops as Stockton have done. Pride in who you are and where you're from. Then the cumulative bits on immigration may translate into support.
But nobody wins by just saying deport muslims. Because whether people think muslims are the problem or not, muslims aren't the problem. As we would find out if Rupert the bear Lowe went round and deported 2m of them as threatened. Does Fuck All to help white poor communities, as they would quickly point out.
Labour and the Tories are going to face slaughter in 2 weeks, and to a lesser extent are the Lib Dems. What about the scenario and odds for a situation with Starmer, Badendoch and Davey ALL resigning and 3 new leaders in place by September..
Davey is a curious one. The Lib Dems should be profiting hugely right now, but aren’t yet. Odd. I guess they don’t have a compelling nationwide offer, sufficient to gain attention. Locally they’ve proven rather good.
Should they? They are basically a slightly more centre right, slightly more anti Brexit version of Starmer Labour.
If you want a rightwing alternative to Labour which backs Brexit you have the Tories or Reform, if you want a left of Starmer Labour party you have the Greens. Why should the LDs be doing better whoever leads them? Davey got as many seats as the LDs probably ever could in 2024
'India has dismissed as “uninformed” comments shared by President Trump that described the country as a hellhole, saying they were inappropriate and inconsistent with the strong relationship between the two countries.
The remarks were made by the conservative commentator Michael Savage in an episode of The Savage Nation radio show, in reference to immigrants into the US. Trump posted a transcript of the show on his Truth Social account on Thursday without any comments.“A baby here becomes an instant citizen, and then they bring the entire family in from China or India or some other hellhole on the planet,” Savage said, according to the transcript.
“That there’s almost no loyalty to this country amongst the immigrant class coming in today, which was not always the case. No, they’re not like the European Americans of today and their ancestors,” he added.
India’s foreign ministry late on Thursday reacted strongly to the comments, saying they were “obviously uninformed, inappropriate and in poor taste.”
Trump has, it appears, circled back round to complaining about “chain migration”: one person gets citizenship and then brings over family members. Like Melania Trump then bringing her parents over from Slovenia.
Labour and the Tories are going to face slaughter in 2 weeks, and to a lesser extent are the Lib Dems. What about the scenario and odds for a situation with Starmer, Badendoch and Davey ALL resigning and 3 new leaders in place by September..
Davey is a curious one. The Lib Dems should be profiting hugely right now, but aren’t yet. Odd. I guess they don’t have a compelling nationwide offer, sufficient to gain attention. Locally they’ve proven rather good.
Should they? They are basically a slightly more centre right, slightly more anti Brexit version of Starmer Labour.
If you want a rightwing alternative to Labour which backs Brexit you have the Tories or Reform, if you want a left of Starmer Labour party you have the Greens. Why should the LDs be doing better whoever leads them? Davey got as many seats as the LDs probably ever could in 2024
They occupy the position of the Tories when they were a successful party. Before they went all ideological and funny. I would have thought that offer still had appeal out there.
I think it's worth showing the timeseries for total factor productivity. Now clearly the main fulcrum in the graph is the financial crash, and we see that TFP does not recover as quickly as following previous recessions even before Brexit. But I think there is a case to be made that TFP performance is even worse after Brexit, and with no sign of any recovery (latest data point from this source is 2023 at FRED)
The business investment graph is a bit better than I'd assumed, though.
And, er - Covid? Ukraine? What case do you make for them? Or do they not fit your narrative?
I don't think some of you get it. There is a buzz around Manchester. And not just the bees on the buses.
A dynamic, thriving economy led by investment and infrastructure. With a pick yourself up and work ethos, combined with pride in your community.
An awful lot of good that the King of the North can bring to the wider UK.
I'll mark you down as a fan, then...
What's his route back to The Commons?
Lord Stringer
Past performance does not guarantee future returns - your investment remains at risk If he's the future, name the seat.
I just did. Graham Stringer retires, promoting a by-election in his Blackley seat. Which he's held since 1997...
As I’ve said I’m on the Burnham train reluctantly.
A Northern MP “who cares about us” is a good start. But he is for controlled immigration?
I expect he will go straight through immigration to prosperity.
People are upset about immigration because they are poor. People are upset about immigration because their town is dying. Get the economy buzzing and fewer people care about immigrants.
I've made this point forever. Lets say Farage becomes PM and deploys the Royal Navy to Stop All Boats.
Great! Are people happy? No. Because their issue hasn't been fixed. How long would we have to wait before they started to complain that they're still poor and their town is still a shithole?
If he gives up the progress Mahmood has made then he’s going to get destroyed. It is impossible to do the kind of change you’re asking for with the economic background and the time he will have.
I didn't say that. There are things that can be done which are in isolation not enough but cumulatively build into steady progress.
My point is that people don't want to end immigration, they want to be better off and feel like they have a smidge of control in their life. Focus on deporting the darkies and you can't keep people happy - racism is not their aim.
I'm certainly pro immigration but can still see that we need to make the changes Mahmood is driving. There is more to the issue than racism and Islamophobia although both play their part. The numbers from the Boris wave were too high, certainly without corresponding increases in house building.
Also surely the type of immigrant is crucial. They need to be solvent and marketable without dependants who they cannot support.
The Greens are hammering the Lib Dem vote, yesterday at Newquay another glaring example. I would not be surprised to see the Lib Dems showing net LOSSES next month and the opening for a leadership challenge. Presume it will be Daisy Cooper, certainly more charismatic.
The latest prediction I saw had the LibDems gaining something like 114 seats. Net losses seems pretty unlikely!
I don't think some of you get it. There is a buzz around Manchester. And not just the bees on the buses.
A dynamic, thriving economy led by investment and infrastructure. With a pick yourself up and work ethos, combined with pride in your community.
An awful lot of good that the King of the North can bring to the wider UK.
I'll mark you down as a fan, then...
What's his route back to The Commons?
Lord Stringer
Past performance does not guarantee future returns - your investment remains at risk If he's the future, name the seat.
I just did. Graham Stringer retires, promoting a by-election in his Blackley seat. Which he's held since 1997...
As I’ve said I’m on the Burnham train reluctantly.
A Northern MP “who cares about us” is a good start. But he is for controlled immigration?
I expect he will go straight through immigration to prosperity.
People are upset about immigration because they are poor. People are upset about immigration because their town is dying. Get the economy buzzing and fewer people care about immigrants.
I've made this point forever. Lets say Farage becomes PM and deploys the Royal Navy to Stop All Boats.
Great! Are people happy? No. Because their issue hasn't been fixed. How long would we have to wait before they started to complain that they're still poor and their town is still a shithole?
If he gives up the progress Mahmood has made then he’s going to get destroyed. It is impossible to do the kind of change you’re asking for with the economic background and the time he will have.
I didn't say that. There are things that can be done which are in isolation not enough but cumulatively build into steady progress.
My point is that people don't want to end immigration, they want to be better off and feel like they have a smidge of control in their life. Focus on deporting the darkies and you can't keep people happy - racism is not their aim.
One slice of the population is very definitely unhappy with immigration because they want to feel better off.
Another slice is unhappy because they don't like cultural change (often because they're older) and they're wealthy enough that they didn't feel threatened by the economic hit.
And that's the two arms of the Reform coalition. How you please both of them in government, I hope we never find out. Not in a country where I'm living, anyway.
As we near the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum the peoples verdict will not be decided by academic modelling of alternatives.
It will be determined by their own experience of travelling the UK and EU. Visibly the UK is falling further and further behind our European neighbours, apart from the core Remania parts of London and SE England.
One of the Brexit paradoxes is that the places in the UK that are doing relatively well economically are those that voted to Remain. Leave was voted for by pensioners and areas in economic decline and those areas have continued and even accelerated that decline.
The noteworthy thing after ten years is how little investment supporters of Brexit put into making their project work. They should for example be cheering Starmer for trying to ameliorate some of the negative effects without going back into the Single Market, rather than carping from the sidelines.
At most they make a "it isn't as bad as you think" argument. Which doesn't show much confidence in their own project.
It isn't a "project".
It's a principle.
And for some a cult.
I thought that was the EU. Most of its supporters certainly behave like it is.
I don't think some of you get it. There is a buzz around Manchester. And not just the bees on the buses.
A dynamic, thriving economy led by investment and infrastructure. With a pick yourself up and work ethos, combined with pride in your community.
An awful lot of good that the King of the North can bring to the wider UK.
I'll mark you down as a fan, then...
What's his route back to The Commons?
Lord Stringer
Past performance does not guarantee future returns - your investment remains at risk If he's the future, name the seat.
I just did. Graham Stringer retires, promoting a by-election in his Blackley seat. Which he's held since 1997...
As I’ve said I’m on the Burnham train reluctantly.
A Northern MP “who cares about us” is a good start. But he is for controlled immigration?
I expect he will go straight through immigration to prosperity.
People are upset about immigration because they are poor. People are upset about immigration because their town is dying. Get the economy buzzing and fewer people care about immigrants.
I've made this point forever. Lets say Farage becomes PM and deploys the Royal Navy to Stop All Boats.
Great! Are people happy? No. Because their issue hasn't been fixed. How long would we have to wait before they started to complain that they're still poor and their town is still a shithole?
If he gives up the progress Mahmood has made then he’s going to get destroyed. It is impossible to do the kind of change you’re asking for with the economic background and the time he will have.
I didn't say that. There are things that can be done which are in isolation not enough but cumulatively build into steady progress.
My point is that people don't want to end immigration, they want to be better off and feel like they have a smidge of control in their life. Focus on deporting the darkies and you can't keep people happy - racism is not their aim.
I'm certainly pro immigration but can still see that we need to make the changes Mahmood is driving. There is more to the issue than racism and Islamophobia although both play their part. The numbers from the Boris wave were too high, certainly without corresponding increases in house building.
Also surely the type of immigrant is crucial. They need to be solvent and marketable without dependants who they cannot support.
We cannot possibly sustain the Boriswave levels even if we wanted to. And the Good News is that we are not. Net migration drops and drops in a significant part due to people departing for more prosperous places like Poland.
I'm sick of seeing everyone drinking lager and watching the shite people are sipping outside all the pubs at lunch today I've decided to bite the bullet.
I've just joined CAMRA. £34 a year. Took 3 minutes.
Labour and the Tories are going to face slaughter in 2 weeks, and to a lesser extent are the Lib Dems. What about the scenario and odds for a situation with Starmer, Badendoch and Davey ALL resigning and 3 new leaders in place by September..
You seem to be confusing rational prediction and fantasy there. The LibDems are going to face slaughter, are they?
NEW: “No one in their right mind would ever train an LLM foundation model in the UK" - Nick Clegg dismisses UK's 'sovereign AI' push as "slightly dishonest" given our "marginal relevance." Full story, @CityAM
Three leaflets today, all from Indy splinter parties. Add the SNP and Greens and that gives 5 parties all supporting independence all wanting the regional vote...
I don't think some of you get it. There is a buzz around Manchester. And not just the bees on the buses.
A dynamic, thriving economy led by investment and infrastructure. With a pick yourself up and work ethos, combined with pride in your community.
An awful lot of good that the King of the North can bring to the wider UK.
I'll mark you down as a fan, then...
What's his route back to The Commons?
Lord Stringer
Past performance does not guarantee future returns - your investment remains at risk If he's the future, name the seat.
I just did. Graham Stringer retires, promoting a by-election in his Blackley seat. Which he's held since 1997...
As I’ve said I’m on the Burnham train reluctantly.
A Northern MP “who cares about us” is a good start. But he is for controlled immigration?
I expect he will go straight through immigration to prosperity.
People are upset about immigration because they are poor. People are upset about immigration because their town is dying. Get the economy buzzing and fewer people care about immigrants.
I've made this point forever. Lets say Farage becomes PM and deploys the Royal Navy to Stop All Boats.
Great! Are people happy? No. Because their issue hasn't been fixed. How long would we have to wait before they started to complain that they're still poor and their town is still a shithole?
If he gives up the progress Mahmood has made then he’s going to get destroyed. It is impossible to do the kind of change you’re asking for with the economic background and the time he will have.
I didn't say that. There are things that can be done which are in isolation not enough but cumulatively build into steady progress.
My point is that people don't want to end immigration, they want to be better off and feel like they have a smidge of control in their life. Focus on deporting the darkies and you can't keep people happy - racism is not their aim.
It sounds like to me you think he can get away with just not doing immigration. He can’t.
Not interested in it is fine. And hope and optimism is good. But he’d be utterly mental to sack Mahmood surely?
You're not listening.
It isn't about bloody immigration. And who said sack Mahmood? But the government - despite actually achieving stuff - isn't getting credit. Why? Because its not about bloody immigration, its about poverty.
Let's assume he does leave her and the policies alone. That does nothing. What he does is drive a renaissance in community spirit as has happened in Manchester. Our community, our people. Make the streets visibly tidier. Transform local shops as Stockton have done. Pride in who you are and where you're from. Then the cumulative bits on immigration may translate into support.
But nobody wins by just saying deport muslims. Because whether people think muslims are the problem or not, muslims aren't the problem. As we would find out if Rupert the bear Lowe went round and deported 2m of them as threatened. Does Fuck All to help white poor communities, as they would quickly point out.
It is about immigration. Labour has to tackle it.
It really isn't.
It is necessary to tackle immigration but not sufficient. So I'm scoring this a 1-1 score draw. Next!
I don't think some of you get it. There is a buzz around Manchester. And not just the bees on the buses.
A dynamic, thriving economy led by investment and infrastructure. With a pick yourself up and work ethos, combined with pride in your community.
An awful lot of good that the King of the North can bring to the wider UK.
I'll mark you down as a fan, then...
What's his route back to The Commons?
Lord Stringer
Past performance does not guarantee future returns - your investment remains at risk If he's the future, name the seat.
I just did. Graham Stringer retires, promoting a by-election in his Blackley seat. Which he's held since 1997...
As I’ve said I’m on the Burnham train reluctantly.
A Northern MP “who cares about us” is a good start. But he is for controlled immigration?
I expect he will go straight through immigration to prosperity.
People are upset about immigration because they are poor. People are upset about immigration because their town is dying. Get the economy buzzing and fewer people care about immigrants.
I've made this point forever. Lets say Farage becomes PM and deploys the Royal Navy to Stop All Boats.
Great! Are people happy? No. Because their issue hasn't been fixed. How long would we have to wait before they started to complain that they're still poor and their town is still a shithole?
If he gives up the progress Mahmood has made then he’s going to get destroyed. It is impossible to do the kind of change you’re asking for with the economic background and the time he will have.
I didn't say that. There are things that can be done which are in isolation not enough but cumulatively build into steady progress.
My point is that people don't want to end immigration, they want to be better off and feel like they have a smidge of control in their life. Focus on deporting the darkies and you can't keep people happy - racism is not their aim.
One slice of the population is very definitely unhappy with immigration because they want to feel better off.
Another slice is unhappy because they don't like cultural change (often because they're older) and they're wealthy enough that they didn't feel threatened by the economic hit.
And that's the two arms of the Reform coalition. How you please both of them in government, I hope we never find out. Not in a country where I'm living, anyway.
Well done - I've been trying to articulate that but you've done more pithily. I'd add that 'cultural change' encompasses a wide range of grumbles, some more widely held than others. Some people simply don't like people who don't look or dress like them. But many object to, for example, local hotels being used to house illegal immigrants. And most object to unpleasant criminality, especially the sort of unpleasant criminality that then doesn't get deported for human rights reasons. None of these complaints go away with rising prosperity.
Three leaflets today, all from Indy splinter parties. Add the SNP and Greens and that gives 5 parties all supporting independence all wanting the regional vote...
I'm sick of seeing everyone drinking lager and watching the shite people are sipping outside all the pubs at lunch today I've decided to bite the bullet.
I've just joined CAMRA. £34 a year. Took 3 minutes.
The fightback begins.
As midlife crises go, you’ve probably picked the best. Safer than a motorbike, less heartbreaking than an affair and no Lycra.
I'm sick of seeing everyone drinking lager and watching the shite people are sipping outside all the pubs at lunch today I've decided to bite the bullet.
I've just joined CAMRA. £34 a year. Took 3 minutes.
The fightback begins.
£9 if you have no shame and use all fifty 50p beer discount vouchers they send you.
Labour and the Tories are going to face slaughter in 2 weeks, and to a lesser extent are the Lib Dems. What about the scenario and odds for a situation with Starmer, Badendoch and Davey ALL resigning and 3 new leaders in place by September..
Davey is a curious one. The Lib Dems should be profiting hugely right now, but aren’t yet. Odd. I guess they don’t have a compelling nationwide offer, sufficient to gain attention. Locally they’ve proven rather good.
Should they? They are basically a slightly more centre right, slightly more anti Brexit version of Starmer Labour.
If you want a rightwing alternative to Labour which backs Brexit you have the Tories or Reform, if you want a left of Starmer Labour party you have the Greens. Why should the LDs be doing better whoever leads them? Davey got as many seats as the LDs probably ever could in 2024
They occupy the position of the Tories when they were a successful party. Before they went all ideological and funny. I would have thought that offer still had appeal out there.
The LDs already won almost all the Remain voting Cameroon loving seats now in Oxfordshire, Surrey, Tunbridge Wells, Sussex, Hertfordshire, Hampshire, Berkshire, Cheltenham and Buckinghamshire, Cambridgeshire, West London etc in 2024 now anyway and on present polls would hold them
I'm sick of seeing everyone drinking lager and watching the shite people are sipping outside all the pubs at lunch today I've decided to bite the bullet.
I've just joined CAMRA. £34 a year. Took 3 minutes.
The fightback begins.
As midlife crises go, you’ve probably picked the best. Safer than a motorbike, less heartbreaking than an affair and no Lycra.
Why are we still discussing Brexit? Brexit was sub optimal for the country. That much was obvious then and it is of course obvious now.
It’s done. Let’s move on (all the poorer). Until a party or leader brings up rejoining the EU, what is the point discussing this?
I don't think we discuss it enough (!) Given we are not going back in any time soon, and most people think it was a mistake, we should be discussing how to make the best of a bad job and what compromises we can accept to make it sort of work.
Having said that, right now we really really should be discussing the oil -, gas -, plastics -, fertiliser - and in some cases food - free cliff we will be falling over in a few weeks time.
Three leaflets today, all from Indy splinter parties. Add the SNP and Greens and that gives 5 parties all supporting independence all wanting the regional vote...
I don't think some of you get it. There is a buzz around Manchester. And not just the bees on the buses.
A dynamic, thriving economy led by investment and infrastructure. With a pick yourself up and work ethos, combined with pride in your community.
An awful lot of good that the King of the North can bring to the wider UK.
Manchester - and as a consequence, Mayor Burnham - got a huge helping hand thought when the IRA blew up the heart of the city. It consequently had to start again.
I wouldn't wish that "regeneration" on other towns.
I don't think some of you get it. There is a buzz around Manchester. And not just the bees on the buses.
A dynamic, thriving economy led by investment and infrastructure. With a pick yourself up and work ethos, combined with pride in your community.
An awful lot of good that the King of the North can bring to the wider UK.
I'll mark you down as a fan, then...
What's his route back to The Commons?
Lord Stringer
Past performance does not guarantee future returns - your investment remains at risk If he's the future, name the seat.
I just did. Graham Stringer retires, promoting a by-election in his Blackley seat. Which he's held since 1997...
As I’ve said I’m on the Burnham train reluctantly.
A Northern MP “who cares about us” is a good start. But he is for controlled immigration?
I expect he will go straight through immigration to prosperity.
People are upset about immigration because they are poor. People are upset about immigration because their town is dying. Get the economy buzzing and fewer people care about immigrants.
I've made this point forever. Lets say Farage becomes PM and deploys the Royal Navy to Stop All Boats.
Great! Are people happy? No. Because their issue hasn't been fixed. How long would we have to wait before they started to complain that they're still poor and their town is still a shithole?
If he gives up the progress Mahmood has made then he’s going to get destroyed. It is impossible to do the kind of change you’re asking for with the economic background and the time he will have.
I didn't say that. There are things that can be done which are in isolation not enough but cumulatively build into steady progress.
My point is that people don't want to end immigration, they want to be better off and feel like they have a smidge of control in their life. Focus on deporting the darkies and you can't keep people happy - racism is not their aim.
One slice of the population is very definitely unhappy with immigration because they want to feel better off.
Another slice is unhappy because they don't like cultural change (often because they're older) and they're wealthy enough that they didn't feel threatened by the economic hit.
And that's the two arms of the Reform coalition. How you please both of them in government, I hope we never find out. Not in a country where I'm living, anyway.
The poor arm mostly aren't racist, they're just poor and they're largely ignorant of how stuff works. People sell them a simple bad guy - brown people - and a simple solution - deport them. "Yeah ok, we've tried everything else"
The old arm are prejudiced, not racist. "Parochial Bigotry" as it was described to me. They don't like change because they see the decline of their town centre and shops closing.
Both are fixed by investment and doing the basics. Pull up the weeds, lick of paint, repossess shops and do free rent for pop-ups etc. Community spirit. And the fear of the darkie goes away...
Why are we still discussing Brexit? Brexit was sub optimal for the country. That much was obvious then and it is of course obvious now.
It’s done. Let’s move on (all the poorer). Until a party or leader brings up rejoining the EU, what is the point discussing this?
I don't think we discuss it enough (!) Given we are not going back in any time soon, and most people think it was a mistake, we should be discussing how to make the best of a bad job and what compromises we can accept to make it sort of work.
Having said that, right now we really really should be discussing the oil -, gas -, plastics -, fertiliser - and in some cases food - free cliff we will be falling over in a few weeks time.
There's a strange silence
Partly people don't believe it will happen (wrongly I believe) and partly they really still don't get the impact. They have had years of being told that oil and gas are the ultimate evil and are having serious problems coming round to the idea that so much of modern life relies upon them. When your own Government persists in trying to limit or end the home grown supply of oil and gas, it is no susprise that peple find it difficult to understand just how important it is.
I don't think some of you get it. There is a buzz around Manchester. And not just the bees on the buses.
A dynamic, thriving economy led by investment and infrastructure. With a pick yourself up and work ethos, combined with pride in your community.
An awful lot of good that the King of the North can bring to the wider UK.
Manchester - and as a consequence, Mayor Burnham - got a huge helping hand thought when the IRA blew up the heart of the city. It consequently had to start again.
I wouldn't wish that "regeneration" on other towns.
Hm. The IRA bomb blew up – happily – some of the most disagreeable bits of post-war urban design in Manchester, it was only really a very small part of the city centre, and regeneration was already underway (e.g. Castlefield). It was probably a net positive for Manchester, but a very small blip compared to the overall scale of regeneration and growth in the last 30 years. It’s also worth noting that most of the shiniest regeneration has happened in the last ten years. The Beetham Tower (roughly 150m), built in about 2003, was the sole 100m+ building in Manchester for about ten years – I remember talking to a planner who now brings forward a lot of these things about 2014, asking her if the Beetham Tower would ever have any other towers to go with it – she concluded sadly not, it was a rare conjunction of circumstances. But two years later, the really big towers started popping up at pace – there are 26 now. The IRA bomb was an emblem, but regeneration and growth would have happened without it.
I'm sick of seeing everyone drinking lager and watching the shite people are sipping outside all the pubs at lunch today I've decided to bite the bullet.
I've just joined CAMRA. £34 a year. Took 3 minutes.
The fightback begins.
Yet more camouflage for your actual age?!
They’ll be thrilled, I am sure, with such a youthful new recruit. They’ll feel like the Tories must when someone actually still in employment applies to join.
Labour and the Tories are going to face slaughter in 2 weeks, and to a lesser extent are the Lib Dems. What about the scenario and odds for a situation with Starmer, Badendoch and Davey ALL resigning and 3 new leaders in place by September..
Davey is a curious one. The Lib Dems should be profiting hugely right now, but aren’t yet. Odd. I guess they don’t have a compelling nationwide offer, sufficient to gain attention. Locally they’ve proven rather good.
Should they? They are basically a slightly more centre right, slightly more anti Brexit version of Starmer Labour.
If you want a rightwing alternative to Labour which backs Brexit you have the Tories or Reform, if you want a left of Starmer Labour party you have the Greens. Why should the LDs be doing better whoever leads them? Davey got as many seats as the LDs probably ever could in 2024
They occupy the position of the Tories when they were a successful party. Before they went all ideological and funny. I would have thought that offer still had appeal out there.
The LDs already won almost all the Remain voting Cameroon loving seats now in Oxfordshire, Surrey, Tunbridge Wells, Sussex, Hertfordshire, Hampshire, Berkshire, Cheltenham and Buckinghamshire, Cambridgeshire, West London etc in 2024 now anyway and on present polls would hold them
I would have thought the pragmatic, small c economically liberal, pro business agenda would get some traction everywhere if it could be expressed in modern terms. Since the Tories bizarrely vacated that ground it could be fertile ground for the LibDems. My hunch is Trump is exhausting the appeal of populist nationalism.
Why are we still discussing Brexit? Brexit was sub optimal for the country. That much was obvious then and it is of course obvious now.
It’s done. Let’s move on (all the poorer). Until a party or leader brings up rejoining the EU, what is the point discussing this?
I don't think we discuss it enough (!) Given we are not going back in any time soon, and most people think it was a mistake, we should be discussing how to make the best of a bad job and what compromises we can accept to make it sort of work.
Having said that, right now we really really should be discussing the oil -, gas -, plastics -, fertiliser - and in some cases food - free cliff we will be falling over in a few weeks time.
There's a strange silence
Partly people don't believe it will happen (wrongly I believe) and partly they really still don't get the impact. They have had years of being told that oil and gas are the ultimate evil and are having serious problems coming round to the idea that so much of modern life relies upon them. When your own Government persists in trying to limit or end the home grown supply of oil and gas, it is no susprise that peple find it difficult to understand just how important it is.
Ed Miliband is Crap is Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero.
Labour and the Tories are going to face slaughter in 2 weeks, and to a lesser extent are the Lib Dems. What about the scenario and odds for a situation with Starmer, Badendoch and Davey ALL resigning and 3 new leaders in place by September..
Davey is a curious one. The Lib Dems should be profiting hugely right now, but aren’t yet. Odd. I guess they don’t have a compelling nationwide offer, sufficient to gain attention. Locally they’ve proven rather good.
Should they? They are basically a slightly more centre right, slightly more anti Brexit version of Starmer Labour.
If you want a rightwing alternative to Labour which backs Brexit you have the Tories or Reform, if you want a left of Starmer Labour party you have the Greens. Why should the LDs be doing better whoever leads them? Davey got as many seats as the LDs probably ever could in 2024
They occupy the position of the Tories when they were a successful party. Before they went all ideological and funny. I would have thought that offer still had appeal out there.
The LDs already won almost all the Remain voting Cameroon loving seats now in Oxfordshire, Surrey, Tunbridge Wells, Sussex, Hertfordshire, Hampshire, Berkshire, Cheltenham and Buckinghamshire, Cambridgeshire, West London etc in 2024 now anyway and on present polls would hold them
Still more for them to win in Gloucestershire, and across Wessex. Not to mention the better heeled parts of Scotland.
Labour and the Tories are going to face slaughter in 2 weeks, and to a lesser extent are the Lib Dems. What about the scenario and odds for a situation with Starmer, Badendoch and Davey ALL resigning and 3 new leaders in place by September..
Davey is a curious one. The Lib Dems should be profiting hugely right now, but aren’t yet. Odd. I guess they don’t have a compelling nationwide offer, sufficient to gain attention. Locally they’ve proven rather good.
Should they? They are basically a slightly more centre right, slightly more anti Brexit version of Starmer Labour.
If you want a rightwing alternative to Labour which backs Brexit you have the Tories or Reform, if you want a left of Starmer Labour party you have the Greens. Why should the LDs be doing better whoever leads them? Davey got as many seats as the LDs probably ever could in 2024
They occupy the position of the Tories when they were a successful party. Before they went all ideological and funny. I would have thought that offer still had appeal out there.
The LDs already won almost all the Remain voting Cameroon loving seats now in Oxfordshire, Surrey, Tunbridge Wells, Sussex, Hertfordshire, Hampshire, Berkshire, Cheltenham and Buckinghamshire, Cambridgeshire, West London etc in 2024 now anyway and on present polls would hold them
Still more for them to win in Gloucestershire, and across Wessex. Not to mention the better heeled parts of Scotland.
And a scattering still to win across the prosperous Home Counties, like Casino’s East Hampshire (LD near miss last time) and East Grinstead (voters couldn’t work out which opposition party stood the best chance)
I don't think some of you get it. There is a buzz around Manchester. And not just the bees on the buses.
A dynamic, thriving economy led by investment and infrastructure. With a pick yourself up and work ethos, combined with pride in your community.
An awful lot of good that the King of the North can bring to the wider UK.
I'll mark you down as a fan, then...
What's his route back to The Commons?
Lord Stringer
Past performance does not guarantee future returns - your investment remains at risk If he's the future, name the seat.
I just did. Graham Stringer retires, promoting a by-election in his Blackley seat. Which he's held since 1997...
As I’ve said I’m on the Burnham train reluctantly.
A Northern MP “who cares about us” is a good start. But he is for controlled immigration?
I expect he will go straight through immigration to prosperity.
People are upset about immigration because they are poor. People are upset about immigration because their town is dying. Get the economy buzzing and fewer people care about immigrants.
I've made this point forever. Lets say Farage becomes PM and deploys the Royal Navy to Stop All Boats.
Great! Are people happy? No. Because their issue hasn't been fixed. How long would we have to wait before they started to complain that they're still poor and their town is still a shithole?
If he gives up the progress Mahmood has made then he’s going to get destroyed. It is impossible to do the kind of change you’re asking for with the economic background and the time he will have.
I didn't say that. There are things that can be done which are in isolation not enough but cumulatively build into steady progress.
My point is that people don't want to end immigration, they want to be better off and feel like they have a smidge of control in their life. Focus on deporting the darkies and you can't keep people happy - racism is not their aim.
One slice of the population is very definitely unhappy with immigration because they want to feel better off.
Another slice is unhappy because they don't like cultural change (often because they're older) and they're wealthy enough that they didn't feel threatened by the economic hit.
And that's the two arms of the Reform coalition. How you please both of them in government, I hope we never find out. Not in a country where I'm living, anyway.
The poor arm mostly aren't racist, they're just poor and they're largely ignorant of how stuff works. People sell them a simple bad guy - brown people - and a simple solution - deport them. "Yeah ok, we've tried everything else"
The old arm are prejudiced, not racist. "Parochial Bigotry" as it was described to me. They don't like change because they see the decline of their town centre and shops closing.
Both are fixed by investment and doing the basics. Pull up the weeds, lick of paint, repossess shops and do free rent for pop-ups etc. Community spirit. And the fear of the darkie goes away...
True, up to a point. But there are also some pretty agreeable bits of Kent, East Anglia etc that are set to turn turquoise. People who only encounter that sort of decay in the pages of the Telegraph.
At least part of what we're seeing is a generation that's used to being young and hot not coming to terms with no longer being so. And that's much harder to fix.
(The other issue remains that many things are shabby as a direct consequence of people's spending and voting decisions.)
I'm sick of seeing everyone drinking lager and watching the shite people are sipping outside all the pubs at lunch today I've decided to bite the bullet.
I've just joined CAMRA. £34 a year. Took 3 minutes.
Why are we still discussing Brexit? Brexit was sub optimal for the country. That much was obvious then and it is of course obvious now.
It’s done. Let’s move on (all the poorer). Until a party or leader brings up rejoining the EU, what is the point discussing this?
I don't think we discuss it enough (!) Given we are not going back in any time soon, and most people think it was a mistake, we should be discussing how to make the best of a bad job and what compromises we can accept to make it sort of work.
Having said that, right now we really really should be discussing the oil -, gas -, plastics -, fertiliser - and in some cases food - free cliff we will be falling over in a few weeks time.
There's a strange silence
Partly people don't believe it will happen (wrongly I believe) and partly they really still don't get the impact. They have had years of being told that oil and gas are the ultimate evil and are having serious problems coming round to the idea that so much of modern life relies upon them. When your own Government persists in trying to limit or end the home grown supply of oil and gas, it is no susprise that peple find it difficult to understand just how important it is.
Indeed. If as reported there will be half normal aviation fuel availability, what limits should be in place now? Who will need to be protected from fuel prices that could increase two or three fold,and who will be left to cope as best they can? What measures need to be put in place to prevent potential famine in places that simply can't afford to bid for fertiliser? etc
Just heard Hegseth on WatO - perhaps Europe should take him at his word and force the Straights of Hormuz open. Including against the US if necessary. Yes, I know we couldn't if we wanted to but sadly I've come to the conclusion that we have to build up our forces so we could do so at least in conjunction with another middle-sized power. Where the money comes from I have no idea.
I'm sick of seeing everyone drinking lager and watching the shite people are sipping outside all the pubs at lunch today I've decided to bite the bullet.
I've just joined CAMRA. £34 a year. Took 3 minutes.
NEW: “No one in their right mind would ever train an LLM foundation model in the UK" - Nick Clegg dismisses UK's 'sovereign AI' push as "slightly dishonest" given our "marginal relevance." Full story, @CityAM
He's right. Up thread there's a post claiming Facebook's AI budget for this year is the equivalent of 100 billion GBP. Or 160% of our Defence budget. We can't afford to play with the big boys.
Just heard Hegseth on WatO - perhaps Europe should take him at his word and force the Straights of Hormuz open. Including against the US if necessary. Yes, I know we couldn't if we wanted to but sadly I've come to the conclusion that we have to build up our forces so we could do so at least in conjunction with another middle-sized power. Where the money comes from I have no idea.
We have more power than you might think. Scotch whisky, for example: just imagine if we cut off supplies to Pete Hegseth. That would soon bring him to his knees, begging us to get round the negotiating table.
Why are we still discussing Brexit? Brexit was sub optimal for the country. That much was obvious then and it is of course obvious now.
It’s done. Let’s move on (all the poorer). Until a party or leader brings up rejoining the EU, what is the point discussing this?
I don't think we discuss it enough (!) Given we are not going back in any time soon, and most people think it was a mistake, we should be discussing how to make the best of a bad job and what compromises we can accept to make it sort of work.
Having said that, right now we really really should be discussing the oil -, gas -, plastics -, fertiliser - and in some cases food - free cliff we will be falling over in a few weeks time.
There's a strange silence
Partly people don't believe it will happen (wrongly I believe) and partly they really still don't get the impact. They have had years of being told that oil and gas are the ultimate evil and are having serious problems coming round to the idea that so much of modern life relies upon them. When your own Government persists in trying to limit or end the home grown supply of oil and gas, it is no susprise that peple find it difficult to understand just how important it is.
Indeed. If as reported there will be half normal aviation fuel availability, what limits should be in place now? Who will need to be protected from fuel prices that could increase two or three fold,and who will be left to cope as best they can? What measures need to be put in place to prevent potential famine in places that simply can't afford to bid for fertiliser? etc
I se Lufthansa have been thinking ahead and have cancelled 20,000 flights between now and October. We should maybe be looking at limiting internal flights where there is an alternative (even if less convenient) and prioritising lang haul where there really isn't an alternative. Diesel needs to be prioritised for public service vehicles (emergency etc ) and road haulage.
As we near the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum the peoples verdict will not be decided by academic modelling of alternatives.
It will be determined by their own experience of travelling the UK and EU. Visibly the UK is falling further and further behind our European neighbours, apart from the core Remania parts of London and SE England.
One of the Brexit paradoxes is that the places in the UK that are doing relatively well economically are those that voted to Remain. Leave was voted for by pensioners and areas in economic decline and those areas have continued and even accelerated that decline.
The noteworthy thing after ten years is how little investment supporters of Brexit put into making their project work. They should for example be cheering Starmer for trying to ameliorate some of the negative effects without going back into the Single Market, rather than carping from the sidelines.
At most they make a "it isn't as bad as you think" argument. Which doesn't show much confidence in their own project.
It isn't a "project".
It's a principle.
And for some a cult.
I thought that was the EU. Most of its supporters certainly behave like it is.
Odd, then, that so many who voted for Brexit have changed their minds.
Why are we still discussing Brexit? Brexit was sub optimal for the country. That much was obvious then and it is of course obvious now.
It’s done. Let’s move on (all the poorer). Until a party or leader brings up rejoining the EU, what is the point discussing this?
I don't think we discuss it enough (!) Given we are not going back in any time soon, and most people think it was a mistake, we should be discussing how to make the best of a bad job and what compromises we can accept to make it sort of work.
Having said that, right now we really really should be discussing the oil -, gas -, plastics -, fertiliser - and in some cases food - free cliff we will be falling over in a few weeks time.
There's a strange silence
Partly people don't believe it will happen (wrongly I believe) and partly they really still don't get the impact. They have had years of being told that oil and gas are the ultimate evil and are having serious problems coming round to the idea that so much of modern life relies upon them. When your own Government persists in trying to limit or end the home grown supply of oil and gas, it is no susprise that peple find it difficult to understand just how important it is.
The home grown supply of oil and gas is finite. It can be used just once. The only question is whether we take it all out of the ground as fast as possible, or at a much more measured pace while switching away to lean more on renewable and nuclear sources. If the latter, there will be more oil and gas left for future generations, at a point when you and I are pushing up the daisies and the planet might actually be able to cope with the more measured rate of use.
And as those finite oil and gas supplies run out worldwide, such that the cost of extraction increases and prices are pushed up further due to limits on supply, the fact that fields such as Rosebank are available to bring onstream in 50 years time will make them far more valuable as a national resource then than they are now.
Trump really seems to have it in for Britain at the moment.
- The Falklands nonsense. - Threatening a massive tariff again over the digital services tax. - Claiming to speak more for Britain than Prince Harry after the Duke chided the US for not standing by their commitment to Ukraine made when Ukraine gave up it's nuclear weapons.
Trump really seems to have it in for Britain at the moment.
- The Falklands nonsense. - Threatening a massive tariff again over the digital services tax. - Claiming to speak more for Britain than Prince Harry after the Duke chided the US for not standing by their commitment to Ukraine made when Ukraine gave up it's nuclear weapons.
Trump really seems to have it in for Britain at the moment.
- The Falklands nonsense. - Threatening a massive tariff again over the digital services tax. - Claiming to speak more for Britain than Prince Harry after the Duke chided the US for not standing by their commitment to Ukraine made when Ukraine gave up it's nuclear weapons.
I do wish he'd piss off.
Ignore him. He will do what he does regardless.
Just pity the King who is going to have to listen to him while nodding for the next few days
NEW: “No one in their right mind would ever train an LLM foundation model in the UK" - Nick Clegg dismisses UK's 'sovereign AI' push as "slightly dishonest" given our "marginal relevance." Full story, @CityAM
He's right. Up thread there's a post claiming Facebook's AI budget for this year is the equivalent of 100 billion GBP. Or 160% of our Defence budget. We can't afford to play with the big boys.
But Liz Kendall has just promised a fortune to Barnsley to make that an AI hub. So we’re getting there.
Comments
Any good the government has done is not from him.
YouGov's London polling still looks pretty catastrophic for Labour to me.
I will refrain from reposting it for a while.
Whoever is next needs a decent runway to save the U.K. from a Farage or Badenoch catastrophe.
A lot at stake. Look at the US and the Harris screwup. We don’t want that.
People are upset about immigration because they are poor. People are upset about immigration because their town is dying. Get the economy buzzing and fewer people care about immigrants.
I've made this point forever. Lets say Farage becomes PM and deploys the Royal Navy to Stop All Boats.
Great! Are people happy? No. Because their issue hasn't been fixed. How long would we have to wait before they started to complain that they're still poor and their town is still a shithole?
Should see it this weekend.
Make me liquid, Andy
Had someone pull out on me, just continued despite a very loud shouted warning, despite my best attempts at avoidance I glanced off the driverside B pillar and fell into the centre hatching of a thankfully wide road. They stopped 300m further down the road, passenger in the car, I presume his wife, otherwise I don't think he'd have stopped. Indignantly told me he was a magistrate and threatened violence if I didn't delete the photo I'd taken of him and the car reg.
Not your normal bottom-feeder.
Having said that, I think most people want to know if they are better off economically in or out and whoever is on the debit side of that assessment will struggle to make the case for other benefits - and Brexiteers aren't trying very hard. And so Brexit fails because most people think it is a failure
Who is the safe choice against the chaos of Farage or Badenoch?
Who can pull us back from the brink? Tough gig.
Twice failed to win a leadership election.
Twice in recent months has made himself look like a total knob.
Happy to turn his back on the people of Manchester.
Has an air of entitlement to become PM.
Being a professional northerner, man of the people seems to have got plenty of people excited. But not me.
My point is that people don't want to end immigration, they want to be better off and feel like they have a smidge of control in their life. Focus on deporting the darkies and you can't keep people happy - racism is not their aim.
Not interested in it is fine. And hope and optimism is good. But he’d be utterly mental to sack Mahmood surely?
What about the scenario and odds for a situation with Starmer, Badendoch and Davey ALL resigning and 3 new leaders in place by September..
Connor Gillies@ConnorGillies
NEW: Police Scotland say a 38 year old prisoner has been arrested and charged after a sexual assault on a woman within HMP Greenock.
@SkyNews
understands the alleged offender is a transgender inmate who was born male & now identifies as female.
https://x.com/ConnorGillies/status/2047391376774496482
____
For Women Scotland@ForWomenScot
When we raised the issue of men in women's prisons last year, the @theSNP gov had a choice. They could have complied with the law and removed these men or fight us in court. They chose the latter.
This is on them.
https://x.com/ForWomenScot/status/2047594772798263736
People don't just want alternatives to Labour/Conservative, they want to feel disruptive too. And even though the LDs would be a seusmic shift in that sense, they're still seen as one of the same old gang.
It just needs the question - so how would the Navy stop the boats, and how would Nigel Bismarck send them back when Paris says "Non!" ?
It isn't about bloody immigration. And who said sack Mahmood? But the government - despite actually achieving stuff - isn't getting credit. Why? Because its not about bloody immigration, its about poverty.
Let's assume he does leave her and the policies alone. That does nothing. What he does is drive a renaissance in community spirit as has happened in Manchester. Our community, our people. Make the streets visibly tidier. Transform local shops as Stockton have done. Pride in who you are and where you're from. Then the cumulative bits on immigration may translate into support.
But nobody wins by just saying deport muslims. Because whether people think muslims are the problem or not, muslims aren't the problem. As we would find out if Rupert the bear Lowe went round and deported 2m of them as threatened. Does Fuck All to help white poor communities, as they would quickly point out.
It's quite a conundrum.
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2047638215461388618
NEW: No 10 says Keir Starmer will be Prime Minister for years to come
“The Prime Minister will continue to lead the Government throughout this Parliament and beyond”
It’s done. Let’s move on (all the poorer). Until a party or leader brings up rejoining the EU, what is the point discussing this?
Next week Barton is expected to enforce Robbins testimony of the pressure no 10 put on the FCDO
If you want a rightwing alternative to Labour which backs Brexit you have the Tories or Reform, if you want a left of Starmer Labour party you have the Greens. Why should the LDs be doing better whoever leads them? Davey got as many seats as the LDs probably ever could in 2024
They'll lose it, though, if the economy totally toilets -that's the scenario where Badenoch could clip most seats.
Name names with links.
Another slice is unhappy because they don't like cultural change (often because they're older) and they're wealthy enough that they didn't feel threatened by the economic hit.
And that's the two arms of the Reform coalition. How you please both of them in government, I hope we never find out. Not in a country where I'm living, anyway.
Dan Hannan takes over from David Frost as Director General of the IEA from 1 June
https://news.sky.com/story/starmer-put-a-nuclear-bomb-under-mandelson-row-by-sacking-olly-robbins-13535602
I'm sick of seeing everyone drinking lager and watching the shite people are sipping outside all the pubs at lunch today I've decided to bite the bullet.
I've just joined CAMRA. £34 a year. Took 3 minutes.
The fightback begins.
NEW: “No one in their right mind would ever train an LLM foundation model in the UK" - Nick Clegg dismisses UK's 'sovereign AI' push as "slightly dishonest" given our "marginal relevance." Full story, @CityAM
I'd add that 'cultural change' encompasses a wide range of grumbles, some more widely held than others. Some people simply don't like people who don't look or dress like them. But many object to, for example, local hotels being used to house illegal immigrants. And most object to unpleasant criminality, especially the sort of unpleasant criminality that then doesn't get deported for human rights reasons. None of these complaints go away with rising prosperity.
Isn't regularly posting here the best?
Having said that, right now we really really should be discussing the oil -, gas -, plastics -, fertiliser - and in some cases food - free cliff we will be falling over in a few weeks time.
There's a strange silence
I wouldn't wish that "regeneration" on other towns.
The old arm are prejudiced, not racist. "Parochial Bigotry" as it was described to me. They don't like change because they see the decline of their town centre and shops closing.
Both are fixed by investment and doing the basics. Pull up the weeds, lick of paint, repossess shops and do free rent for pop-ups etc. Community spirit. And the fear of the darkie goes away...
It’s also worth noting that most of the shiniest regeneration has happened in the last ten years. The Beetham Tower (roughly 150m), built in about 2003, was the sole 100m+ building in Manchester for about ten years – I remember talking to a planner who now brings forward a lot of these things about 2014, asking her if the Beetham Tower would ever have any other towers to go with it – she concluded sadly not, it was a rare conjunction of circumstances. But two years later, the really big towers started popping up at pace – there are 26 now.
The IRA bomb was an emblem, but regeneration and growth would have happened without it.
They’ll be thrilled, I am sure, with such a youthful new recruit. They’ll feel like the Tories must when someone actually still in employment applies to join.
At least part of what we're seeing is a generation that's used to being young and hot not coming to terms with no longer being so. And that's much harder to fix.
(The other issue remains that many things are shabby as a direct consequence of people's spending and voting decisions.)
And as those finite oil and gas supplies run out worldwide, such that the cost of extraction increases and prices are pushed up further due to limits on supply, the fact that fields such as Rosebank are available to bring onstream in 50 years time will make them far more valuable as a national resource then than they are now.
- The Falklands nonsense.
- Threatening a massive tariff again over the digital services tax.
- Claiming to speak more for Britain than Prince Harry after the Duke chided the US for not standing by their commitment to Ukraine made when Ukraine gave up it's nuclear weapons.
I do wish he'd piss off.