Skip to content

The high point of the Sir Olly Robbins testimony – politicalbetting.com

24

Comments

  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,446

    Sandpit said:

    Reports of a major incident on Moscow’s underground metro. Possibly a tunnel collapse.

    https://x.com/albafella1/status/2046572560649691200

    Keeping up with the maintenance I see…

    Sokolnicheskaya metro line restored in Moscow
    https://iz.ru/en/node/2082824

    Train malfunction caused a lot of smoke, or something.
    Could have been a great deal worse from the description.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,883
    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2046620413380137397

    EXCLUSIVE

    The next tranche of the Mandelson files will not be released until ***after the King's speech on May 13th***, our podcast The State of It can reveal

    The ISC is currently going through hundreds of files assessing whether content could damage national security or international affairs

    That process is likely to conclude this week but the Cabinet Office has a right of appeal, which will take us beyond the prorogation of Parliament next week
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    Meanwhile...



    The Kobeissi Letter
    @KobeissiLetter
    ·
    19m
    BREAKING: A White House official says VP JD Vance has NOT departed for Iran talks yet.

    JD Vance is supposed to be leading the US delegation for a second round of peace talks in Pakistan.

    Iran has denied that any delegation has arrived in Pakistan for negotiations with the US.


    https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2046621699420884996
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    DavidL said:

    I can't imagine anybody who listened to this morning's meeting would conclude that this is someone who was trying to hide something from his political masters. I think the impression was that this was someone who was operating with exceptional competence and found a way to reconcile Number 10's wishes with the assessment that he was responsible for. And that required him to give Mandelson a pass with mitigations in place to protect the UK Government and indeed Mandelson himself.

    The idea that he should be sacked for this is risible and enormously diminishes Starmer in my eyes. This wasn't a quasi political figure like Sue Gray or Morgan McSweeney. He was a Civil Servant doing his job to the best of his considerable ability. It is, in my view, an even more disgraceful decision than appointing Mandelson in the first place.

    Whilst your points are broadly true, the conclusions seem too over the top for me. Robbins knew the game, and sailed close to the rules to gain power and position. If it had gone well he would kept gaining further power and position. Now its gone badly he will get a healthy six figure payoff for now and likely back in similar roles within a couple of years if he so wishes, or returning to senior roles at Goldmans or similar if he prefers. So yes, he was a scapegoat, but he willingly set himself up for that as it is a win-win scenario for an ambitious civil servant.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    How much sway do these advisers have ?

    Don’t PMs have their own mind and Starmer could have simply said no , not happening .

    He could have made a political appointment from a choice of quite a few candidates who weren’t didn’t have the baggage of Mandelson .

    I’m not a fan of Osborne but he certainly wouldn’t have shamed the country .

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689

    Meanwhile...



    The Kobeissi Letter
    @KobeissiLetter
    ·
    19m
    BREAKING: A White House official says VP JD Vance has NOT departed for Iran talks yet.

    JD Vance is supposed to be leading the US delegation for a second round of peace talks in Pakistan.

    Iran has denied that any delegation has arrived in Pakistan for negotiations with the US.


    https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2046621699420884996

    Brace, Brace.

    Washington is an 18-hour flight from Islamabad, and it’s 10pm in Pakistan now. If he hasn’t left yet, he’s not going to be there for much of tomorrow.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile...



    The Kobeissi Letter
    @KobeissiLetter
    ·
    19m
    BREAKING: A White House official says VP JD Vance has NOT departed for Iran talks yet.

    JD Vance is supposed to be leading the US delegation for a second round of peace talks in Pakistan.

    Iran has denied that any delegation has arrived in Pakistan for negotiations with the US.


    https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2046621699420884996

    Brace, Brace.

    Washington is an 18-hour flight from Islamabad, and it’s 10pm in Pakistan now. If he hasn’t left yet, he’s not going to be there for much of tomorrow.
    Witkoff and Krushner also not on their way.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,866
    edited April 21

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    An epic night for the Greens if true!

    I expect quite a lot of Independents too, of the Gaza variety.
    Me too. Which is why those "other" changes look a bit dodgy.
    I fail to understand how being supportive of the poor people of Gaza qualifies one to deal with rubbish collection in an English city. Being Green yes, I quite understand, and indeed will almost certainly vote for them, the LibDems being invisible here.
    Shokhat Adam elected as Indy in Leicester South (I think he is now sitting with the YP group, though not certain if formally a member of YP). He certainly campaigned on Gaza, but was elected on more than that. In particular he campaigned that the other parties took the local community for granted across the board.

    Gaza is clearly an issue for these communities, but is also a signifier of wider issues, the canary in the coalmine. If the Labour party ignores them over Gaza, it ignores them on other issues too.

    He has since proven to be an excellent constituency MP taking up many local concerns, including of my own church. To depict these as purely sectarian politicians is both to misrepresent and underestimate them. They are rooted in their local communities and hence may have a lot of appeal at council level too.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,965
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reports of a major incident on Moscow’s underground metro. Possibly a tunnel collapse.

    https://x.com/albafella1/status/2046572560649691200

    Keeping up with the maintenance I see…

    Blame it on Ukraine/NATO to justify a full mobilisation?
    That has to be a worry.
    Except reports are it was a train derailment and everything is back to normal
    Did social media get carried away over nothing?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reports of a major incident on Moscow’s underground metro. Possibly a tunnel collapse.

    https://x.com/albafella1/status/2046572560649691200

    Keeping up with the maintenance I see…

    Blame it on Ukraine/NATO to justify a full mobilisation?
    That has to be a worry.
    Except reports are it was a train derailment and everything is back to normal
    Did social media get carried away over nothing?
    Sounds like a few Moscovites thought it was the end of the World.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,965
    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    An epic night for the Greens if true!

    I expect quite a lot of Independents too, of the Gaza variety.
    Me too. Which is why those "other" changes look a bit dodgy.
    I fail to understand how being supportive of the poor people of Gaza qualifies one to deal with rubbish collection in an English city. Being Green yes, I quite understand, and indeed will almost certainly vote for them, the LibDems being invisible here.
    Shokhat Adam elected as Indy in Leicester South (I think he is now sitting with the YP group, though not certain if formally a member of YP). He certainly campaigned on Gaza, but was elected on more than that. In particular he campaigned that the other parties took the local community for granted across the board.

    Gaza is clearly an issue for these communities, but is also a signifier of wider issues, the canary in the coalmine. If the Labour party ignores them over Gaza, it ignores them on other issues too.

    He has since proven to be an excellent constituency MP taking up many local concerns, including of my own church. To depict these as purely sectarian politicians is both to misrepresent and underestimate them. They are rooted in their local communities and hence may have a lot of appeal at council level too.
    He is part of Your Party, but like a majority of the Your Party MPs formally sits as an independent, as opposed to as Your Party, in the Commons, for some convoluted reason.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,547
    edited April 21
    Sandpit said:

    Interesting comment from Peter Hague:

    https://x.com/peterrhague/status/2046485441705074890

    It’s not that Starmer is immoral. I think he is actually amoral. To him there is no right or wrong. There is just “process” and “not process”. He literally can’t understand why people are angry at him. He diligently followed Process so should be getting good outcomes.

    There are a lot of people like this, who essentially gamify life - systems and even people are just mechanisms that give you want you want if you supply the correct input. It’s a sociopathic view of humanity that Starmer shares with the typical scammer or pick up artist.

    Which misses the point of the Process State.

    The idea is that humans are fallible, biased etc. so instead of human discretion, moral compasses etc. a Process is created.

    If the Process is complicated enough it will perfectly cover all possible cases.

    This removes the human event from decision making.

    Follow the process and your action will be legal, hosted and morally pure.

    To question this, is in the sight of its believers, a declaration of anarchic intent.

    The problem is that humans and their world are non-linear. And rules are linear. This means, mathematically, the Process State can’t work.

    We need human decisions.

    And our man Olly enters the picture.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,883
    https://x.com/bbcworldatone/status/2046595442561958179

    "To use the Foreign Office for vanity projects in this way is unforgivable."

    Dame Emily Thornberry criticises No 10, after Sir Olly Robbins claims Downing St wanted to find a diplomatic role for former head of communications Lord Doyle.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    An epic night for the Greens if true!

    I expect quite a lot of Independents too, of the Gaza variety.
    Me too. Which is why those "other" changes look a bit dodgy.
    I fail to understand how being supportive of the poor people of Gaza qualifies one to deal with rubbish collection in an English city. Being Green yes, I quite understand, and indeed will almost certainly vote for them, the LibDems being invisible here.
    Shokhat Adam elected as Indy in Leicester South (I think he is now sitting with the YP group, though not certain if formally a member of YP). He certainly campaigned on Gaza, but was elected on more than that. In particular he campaigned that the other parties took the local community for granted across the board.

    Gaza is clearly an issue for these communities, but is also a signifier of wider issues, the canary in the coalmine. If the Labour party ignores them over Gaza, it ignores them on other issues too.

    He has since proven to be an excellent constituency MP taking up many local concerns, including of my own church. To depict these as purely sectarian politicians is both to misrepresent and underestimate them. They are rooted in their local communities and hence may have a lot of appeal at council level too.
    They shouldn't be underestimated or presumed to be single-issue, but if the thing that binds a disparate group of independents together includes a significant focus on Gazan issues (as a campaigning matter, not merely holding that position), then it also doesn't seem unfair to utilise that as a core label. Pretty much every candidate will say they are rooted in their communities and that other parties take people for granted. If Gaza is the 'signifier of wider' issues as you suggest then it seem pretty apposite to use it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,866

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    An epic night for the Greens if true!

    I expect quite a lot of Independents too, of the Gaza variety.
    Me too. Which is why those "other" changes look a bit dodgy.
    I fail to understand how being supportive of the poor people of Gaza qualifies one to deal with rubbish collection in an English city. Being Green yes, I quite understand, and indeed will almost certainly vote for them, the LibDems being invisible here.
    Shokhat Adam elected as Indy in Leicester South (I think he is now sitting with the YP group, though not certain if formally a member of YP). He certainly campaigned on Gaza, but was elected on more than that. In particular he campaigned that the other parties took the local community for granted across the board.

    Gaza is clearly an issue for these communities, but is also a signifier of wider issues, the canary in the coalmine. If the Labour party ignores them over Gaza, it ignores them on other issues too.

    He has since proven to be an excellent constituency MP taking up many local concerns, including of my own church. To depict these as purely sectarian politicians is both to misrepresent and underestimate them. They are rooted in their local communities and hence may have a lot of appeal at council level too.
    He is part of Your Party, but like a majority of the Your Party MPs formally sits as an independent, as opposed to as Your Party, in the Commons, for some convoluted reason.
    I think by forming a group of five they get more admin support. For a self employed businessman he is quite unusually Corbynite.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,433
    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    An epic night for the Greens if true!

    I expect quite a lot of Independents too, of the Gaza variety.
    Me too. Which is why those "other" changes look a bit dodgy.
    I fail to understand how being supportive of the poor people of Gaza qualifies one to deal with rubbish collection in an English city. Being Green yes, I quite understand, and indeed will almost certainly vote for them, the LibDems being invisible here.
    Shokhat Adam elected as Indy in Leicester South (I think he is now sitting with the YP group, though not certain if formally a member of YP). He certainly campaigned on Gaza, but was elected on more than that. In particular he campaigned that the other parties took the local community for granted across the board.

    Gaza is clearly an issue for these communities, but is also a signifier of wider issues, the canary in the coalmine. If the Labour party ignores them over Gaza, it ignores them on other issues too.

    He has since proven to be an excellent constituency MP taking up many local concerns, including of my own church. To depict these as purely sectarian politicians is both to misrepresent and underestimate them. They are rooted in their local communities and hence may have a lot of appeal at council level too.
    Glad to read that; Independents, if genuine representatives of their community, are something we don't have enough of in Parliament.

    My comment was directed at those who seem to think that they can change something that is happening outside UK from a local Council seat.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 581
    nico67 said:

    How much sway do these advisers have ?

    Don’t PMs have their own mind and Starmer could have simply said no , not happening .

    He could have made a political appointment from a choice of quite a few candidates who weren’t didn’t have the baggage of Mandelson .

    I’m not a fan of Osborne but he certainly wouldn’t have shamed the country .

    The problem is that Starmer is pretty much devoid of any ideas beyond not being a Tory. He won on that basis and from day 1 showed more interest in free suits and footie tickets than anything remotely resembling socialism. I've lived too long to expect much more from Labour. It's always been the 'Animal farm' party.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,399

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    I'd love to see the highs and lows either side of those medians.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,567
    One of the things I enjoyed about that was the little qualifier that Starmer is doing all right on Iran. Which a) made it funnier, and b) made the rest of the diatribe more credible.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,369
    I found out today that the 2017 Tour de France Femmes is starting in Leeds and is coming through my village. I intend to watch them take on what is called The Murder Mile ( actually it is about 3k at 8.4%).
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,704
    scampi25 said:

    nico67 said:

    How much sway do these advisers have ?

    Don’t PMs have their own mind and Starmer could have simply said no , not happening .

    He could have made a political appointment from a choice of quite a few candidates who weren’t didn’t have the baggage of Mandelson .

    I’m not a fan of Osborne but he certainly wouldn’t have shamed the country .

    The problem is that Starmer is pretty much devoid of any ideas beyond not being a Tory. He won on that basis and from day 1 showed more interest in free suits and footie tickets than anything remotely resembling socialism. I've lived too long to expect much more from Labour. It's always been the 'Animal farm' party.
    scampi25 said:

    nico67 said:

    How much sway do these advisers have ?

    Don’t PMs have their own mind and Starmer could have simply said no , not happening .

    He could have made a political appointment from a choice of quite a few candidates who weren’t didn’t have the baggage of Mandelson .

    I’m not a fan of Osborne but he certainly wouldn’t have shamed the country .

    The problem is that Starmer is pretty much devoid of any ideas beyond not being a Tory. He won on that basis and from day 1 showed more interest in free suits and footie tickets than anything remotely resembling socialism. I've lived too long to expect much more from Labour. It's always
    been the 'Animal farm' party.
    "Not being a Tory"

    No he is fine with that its Democratic Socialists he hates.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,399
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reports of a major incident on Moscow’s underground metro. Possibly a tunnel collapse.

    https://x.com/albafella1/status/2046572560649691200

    Keeping up with the maintenance I see…

    Blame it on Ukraine/NATO to justify a full mobilisation?
    That has to be a worry.
    Except reports are it was a train derailment and everything is back to normal
    Did social media get carried away over nothing?
    Sounds like a few Moscovites thought it was the end of the World.
    Moscovites are very much on edge. They are waiting on the big Ukrainian drone barrage on their hospitals, schools, markets, tower blocks.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,357
    nico67 said:

    How much sway do these advisers have ?

    Don’t PMs have their own mind and Starmer could have simply said no , not happening .

    He could have made a political appointment from a choice of quite a few candidates who weren’t didn’t have the baggage of Mandelson .

    I’m not a fan of Osborne but he certainly wouldn’t have shamed the country .

    Osborne grifting for donations on a Russian billionaire oligarch's yacht was a bit shameful (as leaked by, erm, Peter Mandelson).
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    edited April 21

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    I'd love to see the highs and lows either side of those medians.
    https://x.com/i/status/2046508616606236754
    Linked here MM

    More in Common Locals Seat Projection Scenarios:

    Low Estimate:
    Reform: +1,273
    Green: +573
    Lib Dem: +148
    Labour: -1,867
    Conservative: -692

    Middle Estimate:
    Reform: +1,437
    Green: +926
    Lib Dem: +327
    Labour: -1,738
    Conservative: -627

    High Estimate:
    Green: +1,741
    Reform: +1,603
    Lib Dem: +503
    Labour: -1,597
    Conservative: -368

    Source:
    @Moreincommon_
    May 7 Briefing

    https://moreincommon.org.uk/media/p43ake24/2026-elections-deck-2.pdf
  • eekeek Posts: 33,922
    edited April 21

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reports of a major incident on Moscow’s underground metro. Possibly a tunnel collapse.

    https://x.com/albafella1/status/2046572560649691200

    Keeping up with the maintenance I see…

    Blame it on Ukraine/NATO to justify a full mobilisation?
    That has to be a worry.
    Except reports are it was a train derailment and everything is back to normal
    Did social media get carried away over nothing?
    Sounds like a few Moscovites thought it was the end of the World.
    Moscovites are very much on edge. They are waiting on the big Ukrainian drone barrage on their hospitals, schools, markets, tower blocks.
    And Ukraine aren’t attacking civilians while there are still economic interests to destroy because Ukraine wants to retain the moral high ground.
  • Starmer should quit.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,354

    There is an argument that suggests Starmer really should do an Amber Rudd and resign on principle.

    Starmer cocked up, Starmer should resign. I think I am more enraged by the knee -jerk sacking of Robbins than by the original appointment of Mandelson.

    Having dug himself into a massive political hole, Starmer is taking out his anger on the person he thinks should have refused to give him a spade.
    Robbins comes out of this terribly.

    He claims that his decision to overrule UK Security Vetting to clear Mandelson had absolutely nothing to do with pressure from "No 10" (i.e. McSweeney), which no-one in their right mind would believe.

    It's bad enough that it's now established he failed to report through his decision to overrule the vetting through to anyone at No 10, but his brazen claim that that was for anything other than the obvious explanation is risible.

    He chose to do everything by private conversation and claims to have never actually read anything, which is also conveniently self serving because there is nothing there to prove he's lying.

    He claims to be confused as to whether or not Mandelson had actually been rejected, as opposed to approved subject to mitigation, when the reports we had previously were all pointing definitively to the former, so he's unconvincingly trying to muddy the waters to save his skin.

    Even worse, months later when the whole vetting process was subject to investigation by the Cabinet Secretary in the wake of Mandelson's sacking, he covered up his actions by still keeping everything under wraps.

    None of that means that Starmer comes out of things much better, even though his initial version of events has been vindicated. Starmer's judgement in wanting to appoint Mandelson was of course suspect. But much worse was his judgement in appointing McSweeney and allowing him to so dominate the political activity at No 10, to such an extent that you wonder whether Starmer was only PM in name.
    Agree - I'm surprised others don't see it the same way. Robbins has admitted he didn't even read the report from security vetting but still overruled their recommendation. And then not told anyone.

    McSweeney comes out terribly also. And Starmer clearly had little idea of what was going on in his name, which is damning in its own way.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    New Senedd Poll from YouGov f/w 6-15 April

    @YouGov have released their latest Senedd election prediction poll with @cardiffuni and @ITVCymruWales:

    Reform UK - 29% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru - 29% (-4)
    Labour - 13% (=)
    Green - 10% (-2)
    Conservatives - 8% (+1)
    Lib Dems - 6% (+1)
    Other - 4% (-1)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,357

    https://x.com/bbcworldatone/status/2046595442561958179

    "To use the Foreign Office for vanity projects in this way is unforgivable."

    Dame Emily Thornberry criticises No 10, after Sir Olly Robbins claims Downing St wanted to find a diplomatic role for former head of communications Lord Doyle.

    Standard practice for the United States to appoint political and celebrity ambassadors.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689
    Cookie said:

    One of the things I enjoyed about that was the little qualifier that Starmer is doing all right on Iran. Which a) made it funnier, and b) made the rest of the diatribe more credible.
    Also the bit at the end, where he says they’re even worse than the last lot because at least he didn’t vote for the last lot.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,596

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    I'd love to see the highs and lows either side of those medians.
    https://x.com/i/status/2046508616606236754
    Linked here MM

    More in Common Locals Seat Projection Scenarios:

    Low Estimate:
    Reform: +1,273
    Green: +573
    Lib Dem: +148
    Labour: -1,867
    Conservative: -692

    Middle Estimate:
    Reform: +1,437
    Green: +926
    Lib Dem: +327
    Labour: -1,738
    Conservative: -627

    High Estimate:
    Green: +1,741
    Reform: +1,603
    Lib Dem: +503
    Labour: -1,597
    Conservative: -368

    Source:
    @Moreincommon_
    May 7 Briefing

    https://moreincommon.org.uk/media/p43ake24/2026-elections-deck-2.pdf
    Jeez. Green have a higher ceiling than Reform.
    Straw in the wind. Only posters I've seen in windows are for the Greens. In a ward they came third in with 13% last time.
  • Starmer clearly decided long ago he has no political ability or knowledge of what he wants to do so he outsourced it all to McSweeney, who wanted Mandelson in.

    Starmer therefore is pointless. He got Labour into government and kept us out of Iran. But we need somebody prepared and with some actual ideas who can actually do something with the majority Labour has.

    The next election is clearly winnable. But not with this leadership.

    I find myself in the odd position of thinking that the only choice is Andy Burnham.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,883
    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2046634650664137066

    NEW: In the last release of Peter Mandelson's vetting files, the then Permanent Secretary of the Foreign Office said Keir Starmer wants to appoint a "small number of political ambassadors"

    It would support Olly Robbins' claim that he was asked to find one for Matthew Doyle
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reports of a major incident on Moscow’s underground metro. Possibly a tunnel collapse.

    https://x.com/albafella1/status/2046572560649691200

    Keeping up with the maintenance I see…

    Blame it on Ukraine/NATO to justify a full mobilisation?
    That has to be a worry.
    Except reports are it was a train derailment and everything is back to normal
    Did social media get carried away over nothing?
    Sounds like a few Moscovites thought it was the end of the World.
    Moscovites are very much on edge. They are waiting on the big Ukrainian drone barrage on their hospitals, schools, markets, tower blocks.
    Indeed.

    They haven’t worked out yet, that while those buildings might be what Russia is targeting in Ukraine, the Ukranian targets in Russia are military bases, O&G facilities, and railway junctions.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,567
    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    One of the things I enjoyed about that was the little qualifier that Starmer is doing all right on Iran. Which a) made it funnier, and b) made the rest of the diatribe more credible.
    Also the bit at the end, where he says they’re even worse than the last lot because at least he didn’t vote for the last lot.
    Yes - I know Pie is a fictional character and his rants a construct, but I found that bit quite thought provoking.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671
    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    It is immensely sad. Sympathy.
  • Rayner has cut a deal with Burnham, I think.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 61,139
    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    That really does suck. Hopefully they catch the buggers that did it.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    edited April 21
    rkrkrk said:

    There is an argument that suggests Starmer really should do an Amber Rudd and resign on principle.

    Starmer cocked up, Starmer should resign. I think I am more enraged by the knee -jerk sacking of Robbins than by the original appointment of Mandelson.

    Having dug himself into a massive political hole, Starmer is taking out his anger on the person he thinks should have refused to give him a spade.
    Robbins comes out of this terribly.

    He claims that his decision to overrule UK Security Vetting to clear Mandelson had absolutely nothing to do with pressure from "No 10" (i.e. McSweeney), which no-one in their right mind would believe.

    It's bad enough that it's now established he failed to report through his decision to overrule the vetting through to anyone at No 10, but his brazen claim that that was for anything other than the obvious explanation is risible.

    He chose to do everything by private conversation and claims to have never actually read anything, which is also conveniently self serving because there is nothing there to prove he's lying.

    He claims to be confused as to whether or not Mandelson had actually been rejected, as opposed to approved subject to mitigation, when the reports we had previously were all pointing definitively to the former, so he's unconvincingly trying to muddy the waters to save his skin.

    Even worse, months later when the whole vetting process was subject to investigation by the Cabinet Secretary in the wake of Mandelson's sacking, he covered up his actions by still keeping everything under wraps.

    None of that means that Starmer comes out of things much better, even though his initial version of events has been vindicated. Starmer's judgement in wanting to appoint Mandelson was of course suspect. But much worse was his judgement in appointing McSweeney and allowing him to so dominate the political activity at No 10, to such an extent that you wonder whether Starmer was only PM in name.
    Agree - I'm surprised others don't see it the same way. Robbins has admitted he didn't even read the report from security vetting but still overruled their recommendation. And then not told anyone.

    McSweeney comes out terribly also. And Starmer clearly had little idea of what was going on in his name, which is damning in its own way.
    The media decided they had a narrative and were going to go with it regardless of what was said today .

    You’d be hard pressed to find any mention that Robbins confirmed Starmer had not been told of any issues . Strangely Robbins was very reluctant to mention any names but was happy to talk about Doyle . There were quite a few convenient memory lapses . The media have been totally biased in their reporting . I’m not defending Starmer but really the BBC in particular has been woeful given its so called remit .
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,160
    Reform PPB

    No AI characters it seems.

    All very upbeat.

    When it came on I said to her magnificence ‘bloody small boats again’

    Nope. Just Bojo style boosterism. A bit ‘Sheffield Rally’ really.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,261

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reports of a major incident on Moscow’s underground metro. Possibly a tunnel collapse.

    https://x.com/albafella1/status/2046572560649691200

    Keeping up with the maintenance I see…

    Blame it on Ukraine/NATO to justify a full mobilisation?
    That has to be a worry.
    Except reports are it was a train derailment and everything is back to normal
    Did social media get carried away over nothing?
    Sounds like a few Moscovites thought it was the end of the World.
    Moscovites are very much on edge. They are waiting on the big Ukrainian drone barrage on their hospitals, schools, markets, tower blocks.
    Muscovites, surely, although maybe we need a new word if people are using it to refer to Russians again.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689

    https://x.com/bbcworldatone/status/2046595442561958179

    "To use the Foreign Office for vanity projects in this way is unforgivable."

    Dame Emily Thornberry criticises No 10, after Sir Olly Robbins claims Downing St wanted to find a diplomatic role for former head of communications Lord Doyle.

    Standard practice for the United States to appoint political and celebrity ambassadors.
    Yes, unlike in the UK, it’s standard in the US for a lot of the high-profile ambassador roles to be given to political appointees whenever there’s a change of President or Sec of State. There’s a lot of cronyism when it comes to some of the plush roles.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,883

    New Senedd Poll from YouGov f/w 6-15 April

    @YouGov have released their latest Senedd election prediction poll with @cardiffuni and @ITVCymruWales:

    Reform UK - 29% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru - 29% (-4)
    Labour - 13% (=)
    Green - 10% (-2)
    Conservatives - 8% (+1)
    Lib Dems - 6% (+1)
    Other - 4% (-1)

    Reform seem to be having a mini peak at just the right time.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    dixiedean said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    I'd love to see the highs and lows either side of those medians.
    https://x.com/i/status/2046508616606236754
    Linked here MM

    More in Common Locals Seat Projection Scenarios:

    Low Estimate:
    Reform: +1,273
    Green: +573
    Lib Dem: +148
    Labour: -1,867
    Conservative: -692

    Middle Estimate:
    Reform: +1,437
    Green: +926
    Lib Dem: +327
    Labour: -1,738
    Conservative: -627

    High Estimate:
    Green: +1,741
    Reform: +1,603
    Lib Dem: +503
    Labour: -1,597
    Conservative: -368

    Source:
    @Moreincommon_
    May 7 Briefing

    https://moreincommon.org.uk/media/p43ake24/2026-elections-deck-2.pdf
    Jeez. Green have a higher ceiling than Reform.
    Straw in the wind. Only posters I've seen in windows are for the Greens. In a ward they came third in with 13% last time.
    Theres an awful lot ofGreen window posters in Norwich now but thats in wards they hold. But they are the only visible game in town (city) there
  • New Senedd Poll from YouGov f/w 6-15 April

    @YouGov have released their latest Senedd election prediction poll with @cardiffuni and @ITVCymruWales:

    Reform UK - 29% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru - 29% (-4)
    Labour - 13% (=)
    Green - 10% (-2)
    Conservatives - 8% (+1)
    Lib Dems - 6% (+1)
    Other - 4% (-1)

    Reform seem to be having a mini peak at just the right time.
    Polls matter when your chosen team goes the right way.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,922
    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/bbcworldatone/status/2046595442561958179

    "To use the Foreign Office for vanity projects in this way is unforgivable."

    Dame Emily Thornberry criticises No 10, after Sir Olly Robbins claims Downing St wanted to find a diplomatic role for former head of communications Lord Doyle.

    Standard practice for the United States to appoint political and celebrity ambassadors.
    Yes, unlike in the UK, it’s standard in the US for a lot of the high-profile ambassador roles to be given to political appointees whenever there’s a change of President or Sec of State. There’s a lot of cronyism when it comes to some of the plush roles.
    I pointed out yesterday it’s an incentive at a certain level to get political donations, fancy being ambassador to France or the UK just give my campaign fund $xm
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,160
    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    Really awful news. Really sorry to read it. There’s no excuse for car drivers not giving us 1.5 metres.

    Life is short and precious and should be valued.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,354

    Rayner has cut a deal with Burnham, I think.

    For what?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/bbcworldatone/status/2046595442561958179

    "To use the Foreign Office for vanity projects in this way is unforgivable."

    Dame Emily Thornberry criticises No 10, after Sir Olly Robbins claims Downing St wanted to find a diplomatic role for former head of communications Lord Doyle.

    Standard practice for the United States to appoint political and celebrity ambassadors.
    Yes, unlike in the UK, it’s standard in the US for a lot of the high-profile ambassador roles to be given to political appointees whenever there’s a change of President or Sec of State. There’s a lot of cronyism when it comes to some of the plush roles.
    I pointed out yesterday it’s an incentive at a certain level to get political donations, fancy being ambassador to France or the UK just give my campaign fund $xm
    Or Barbados, the Maldives…

    Talking of ambassadors, did we ever work out from where Japan found that absolutely brilliant guy they sent to the UK? He’s the most wonderful ambassador of all time!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,305
    Sandpit said:

    Interesting comment from Peter Hague:

    https://x.com/peterrhague/status/2046485441705074890

    It’s not that Starmer is immoral. I think he is actually amoral. To him there is no right or wrong. There is just “process” and “not process”. He literally can’t understand why people are angry at him. He diligently followed Process so should be getting good outcomes.

    There are a lot of people like this, who essentially gamify life - systems and even people are just mechanisms that give you want you want if you supply the correct input. It’s a sociopathic view of humanity that Starmer shares with the typical scammer or pick up artist.

    I don't think it is quite actual sociopathy in Starmer's case. Because of family and medical issues in his childhood, it is a case of having to do the right thing, act the grown up, handle situations from such a young age, that it was done by rote and never with the appreciation that you get by rebelling in your youth and becoming an adult from there.

    He grew up at too young an age, and he is still that preternatural 10 year old grown up.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,261
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reports of a major incident on Moscow’s underground metro. Possibly a tunnel collapse.

    https://x.com/albafella1/status/2046572560649691200

    Keeping up with the maintenance I see…

    Blame it on Ukraine/NATO to justify a full mobilisation?
    That has to be a worry.
    Except reports are it was a train derailment and everything is back to normal
    Did social media get carried away over nothing?
    Sounds like a few Moscovites thought it was the end of the World.
    Moscovites are very much on edge. They are waiting on the big Ukrainian drone barrage on their hospitals, schools, markets, tower blocks.
    Indeed.

    They haven’t worked out yet, that while those buildings might be what Russia is targeting in Ukraine, the Ukranian targets in Russia are military bases, O&G facilities, and railway junctions.
    There's quite a lot of legitimate targets in Moscow. Railway infrastructure, defence installations (it is heavily garrisoned), government offices, factories. They probably won't go for the Kremlin as Russia would follow up on Pechersk Lavra, but even that is a working government building containing an official residence of the President
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,160
    dixiedean said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    I'd love to see the highs and lows either side of those medians.
    https://x.com/i/status/2046508616606236754
    Linked here MM

    More in Common Locals Seat Projection Scenarios:

    Low Estimate:
    Reform: +1,273
    Green: +573
    Lib Dem: +148
    Labour: -1,867
    Conservative: -692

    Middle Estimate:
    Reform: +1,437
    Green: +926
    Lib Dem: +327
    Labour: -1,738
    Conservative: -627

    High Estimate:
    Green: +1,741
    Reform: +1,603
    Lib Dem: +503
    Labour: -1,597
    Conservative: -368

    Source:
    @Moreincommon_
    May 7 Briefing

    https://moreincommon.org.uk/media/p43ake24/2026-elections-deck-2.pdf
    Jeez. Green have a higher ceiling than Reform.
    Straw in the wind. Only posters I've seen in windows are for the Greens. In a ward they came third in with 13% last time.
    I’ve been out and about a few times and not seen any in either Sunderland, Gateshead, Jarra or North Tyneside at all.

    I’m cycling to the coast road tomorrow so will have a look then. It all feels a little apathetic really.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,818

    Starmer clearly decided long ago he has no political ability or knowledge of what he wants to do so he outsourced it all to McSweeney, who wanted Mandelson in.

    Starmer therefore is pointless. He got Labour into government and kept us out of Iran. But we need somebody prepared and with some actual ideas who can actually do something with the majority Labour has.

    The next election is clearly winnable. But not with this leadership.

    I find myself in the odd position of thinking that the only choice is Andy Burnham.

    Other than Greater Manchester Mayor, Burnham's track record is very, very poor. Think of Staffs Hospital Trust. Entirely Burnham's fault.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,399
    rkrkrk said:

    Rayner has cut a deal with Burnham, I think.

    For what?
    Maybe he'll pay her dues to HMRC.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,160
    I’d imagine someone is enjoying SkS’s problems.


  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,818

    New Senedd Poll from YouGov f/w 6-15 April

    @YouGov have released their latest Senedd election prediction poll with @cardiffuni and @ITVCymruWales:

    Reform UK - 29% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru - 29% (-4)
    Labour - 13% (=)
    Green - 10% (-2)
    Conservatives - 8% (+1)
    Lib Dems - 6% (+1)
    Other - 4% (-1)

    Reform seem to be having a mini peak at just the right time.
    You are having a great war?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,305
    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    Shocking. My sympathies to you and all at the school.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,399

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reports of a major incident on Moscow’s underground metro. Possibly a tunnel collapse.

    https://x.com/albafella1/status/2046572560649691200

    Keeping up with the maintenance I see…

    Blame it on Ukraine/NATO to justify a full mobilisation?
    That has to be a worry.
    Except reports are it was a train derailment and everything is back to normal
    Did social media get carried away over nothing?
    Sounds like a few Moscovites thought it was the end of the World.
    Moscovites are very much on edge. They are waiting on the big Ukrainian drone barrage on their hospitals, schools, markets, tower blocks.
    Indeed.

    They haven’t worked out yet, that while those buildings might be what Russia is targeting in Ukraine, the Ukranian targets in Russia are military bases, O&G facilities, and railway junctions.
    There's quite a lot of legitimate targets in Moscow. Railway infrastructure, defence installations (it is heavily garrisoned), government offices, factories. They probably won't go for the Kremlin as Russia would follow up on Pechersk Lavra, but even that is a working government building containing an official residence of the President
    Let the peasants storm the Kremlin.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,818
    edited April 21
    Taz said:

    I’d imagine someone is enjoying SkS’s problems.


    Four years on, innocent of all charges. Ambushed by a cake, or so I read on PB.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363
    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    I'd love to see the highs and lows either side of those medians.
    https://x.com/i/status/2046508616606236754
    Linked here MM

    More in Common Locals Seat Projection Scenarios:

    Low Estimate:
    Reform: +1,273
    Green: +573
    Lib Dem: +148
    Labour: -1,867
    Conservative: -692

    Middle Estimate:
    Reform: +1,437
    Green: +926
    Lib Dem: +327
    Labour: -1,738
    Conservative: -627

    High Estimate:
    Green: +1,741
    Reform: +1,603
    Lib Dem: +503
    Labour: -1,597
    Conservative: -368

    Source:
    @Moreincommon_
    May 7 Briefing

    https://moreincommon.org.uk/media/p43ake24/2026-elections-deck-2.pdf
    Jeez. Green have a higher ceiling than Reform.
    Straw in the wind. Only posters I've seen in windows are for the Greens. In a ward they came third in with 13% last time.
    I’ve been out and about a few times and not seen any in either Sunderland, Gateshead, Jarra or North Tyneside at all.

    I’m cycling to the coast road tomorrow so will have a look then. It all feels a little apathetic really.
    Very invisible in SE London too. A few leaflets through the door. One or two window posters. I think the Greens have a decent chance of getting a plurality of seats in Lewisham though. Lib Dems looking good for 2 (they have zero currently).
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,354

    No 10 denies putting pressure on the FCDO. But admits to repeatedly asking for updates. Which if you have ever worked in the civil service you would understand means pressure.

    (Hell, in the private sector, if the CEO's office kept asking you for updates on a project you were working on, you would regard that as pressure, if not a direct threat)

    Civil servants are supposed to speak truth to power. Good ones stand up to pressure. Apparently Philip Barton did this to insist on vetting.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    edited April 21
    "Just as the NHS is a prime reason for pride in Britain"

    Polly Toynbee - today's Guardian



    "During his evidence on Tuesday, April 21, Dr Malik was asked if he had ever felt pressure to not admit a [acute mental health crisis] patient or to discharge them early because of a lack of the availability of beds.

    He said he had not personally made such a decision but was aware of “15, 18, 20 people” waiting for a bed for “days and weeks”.

    This included patients who had been sectioned under the Mental Health Act, he said.

    “People go on the bed list and, if there is no bed, then if they are in an acute hospital they remain there which is not ideal, and if they are in the care home or even in the community they will remain there.

    Dr Malik said there have been times where patients have been sent to places as far away as Scotland but “sometimes there is no bed”. "


    Dr Malik giving evidence to the public inquiry on Calocane killings in Nottingham
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,399

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    I'd love to see the highs and lows either side of those medians.
    https://x.com/i/status/2046508616606236754
    Linked here MM

    More in Common Locals Seat Projection Scenarios:

    Low Estimate:
    Reform: +1,273
    Green: +573
    Lib Dem: +148
    Labour: -1,867
    Conservative: -692

    Middle Estimate:
    Reform: +1,437
    Green: +926
    Lib Dem: +327
    Labour: -1,738
    Conservative: -627

    High Estimate:
    Green: +1,741
    Reform: +1,603
    Lib Dem: +503
    Labour: -1,597
    Conservative: -368

    Source:
    @Moreincommon_
    May 7 Briefing

    https://moreincommon.org.uk/media/p43ake24/2026-elections-deck-2.pdf
    Much appreciated.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    10 year gilt is above 5%
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,818

    Meanwhile...



    The Kobeissi Letter
    @KobeissiLetter
    ·
    19m
    BREAKING: A White House official says VP JD Vance has NOT departed for Iran talks yet.

    JD Vance is supposed to be leading the US delegation for a second round of peace talks in Pakistan.

    Iran has denied that any delegation has arrived in Pakistan for negotiations with the US.


    https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2046621699420884996

    Apparently Trump has been very keen over the last few days to road test the nuclear codes. I suspect he feels he owes himself a dabble.

    https://metro.co.uk/2026/04/21/trump-stopped-accessing-nuclear-codes-furious-row-28064942/amp/
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363
    edited April 21
    rkrkrk said:

    No 10 denies putting pressure on the FCDO. But admits to repeatedly asking for updates. Which if you have ever worked in the civil service you would understand means pressure.

    (Hell, in the private sector, if the CEO's office kept asking you for updates on a project you were working on, you would regard that as pressure, if not a direct threat)

    Civil servants are supposed to speak truth to power. Good ones stand up to pressure. Apparently Philip Barton did this to insist on vetting.
    Sadly that makes them “the blob” in these populist times.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,491
    slade said:

    I found out today that the 2017 Tour de France Femmes is starting in Leeds and is coming through my village. I intend to watch them take on what is called The Murder Mile ( actually it is about 3k at 8.4%).

    You will be amazed at how quickly they climb those slopes.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,527
    rkrkrk said:

    There is an argument that suggests Starmer really should do an Amber Rudd and resign on principle.

    Starmer cocked up, Starmer should resign. I think I am more enraged by the knee -jerk sacking of Robbins than by the original appointment of Mandelson.

    Having dug himself into a massive political hole, Starmer is taking out his anger on the person he thinks should have refused to give him a spade.
    Robbins comes out of this terribly.

    He claims that his decision to overrule UK Security Vetting to clear Mandelson had absolutely nothing to do with pressure from "No 10" (i.e. McSweeney), which no-one in their right mind would believe.

    It's bad enough that it's now established he failed to report through his decision to overrule the vetting through to anyone at No 10, but his brazen claim that that was for anything other than the obvious explanation is risible.

    He chose to do everything by private conversation and claims to have never actually read anything, which is also conveniently self serving because there is nothing there to prove he's lying.

    He claims to be confused as to whether or not Mandelson had actually been rejected, as opposed to approved subject to mitigation, when the reports we had previously were all pointing definitively to the former, so he's unconvincingly trying to muddy the waters to save his skin.

    Even worse, months later when the whole vetting process was subject to investigation by the Cabinet Secretary in the wake of Mandelson's sacking, he covered up his actions by still keeping everything under wraps.

    None of that means that Starmer comes out of things much better, even though his initial version of events has been vindicated. Starmer's judgement in wanting to appoint Mandelson was of course suspect. But much worse was his judgement in appointing McSweeney and allowing him to so dominate the political activity at No 10, to such an extent that you wonder whether Starmer was only PM in name.
    Agree - I'm surprised others don't see it the same way. Robbins has admitted he didn't even read the report from security vetting but still overruled their recommendation. And then not told anyone.

    McSweeney comes out terribly also. And Starmer clearly had little idea of what was going on in his name, which is damning in its own way.
    My summary would be that Robbins was deceptive, and Starmer unwise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    From Twitter

    Projected result for local elections:

    LE2026

    ➡️ Ref: 1,515 (+1,437)
    🟢 Grn: 1,096 (+926)
    🟠 Lib: 990 (+327)
    🔵 Con: 507 (-627)
    🔴 Lab: 458 (-1,738)
    ⚪️ Oth: 448 (-325)

    Median estimate via @Moreincommon_, April '26

    An epic night for the Greens if true!

    I expect quite a lot of Independents too, of the Gaza variety.
    Me too. Which is why those "other" changes look a bit dodgy.
    I fail to understand how being supportive of the poor people of Gaza qualifies one to deal with rubbish collection in an English city. Being Green yes, I quite understand, and indeed will almost certainly vote for them, the LibDems being invisible here.
    Shokhat Adam elected as Indy in Leicester South (I think he is now sitting with the YP group, though not certain if formally a member of YP). He certainly campaigned on Gaza, but was elected on more than that. In particular he campaigned that the other parties took the local community for granted across the board.

    Gaza is clearly an issue for these communities, but is also a signifier of wider issues, the canary in the coalmine. If the Labour party ignores them over Gaza, it ignores them on other issues too.

    He has since proven to be an excellent constituency MP taking up many local concerns, including of my own church. To depict these as purely sectarian politicians is both to misrepresent and underestimate them. They are rooted in their local communities and hence may have a lot of appeal at council level too.
    Glad to read that; Independents, if genuine representatives of their community, are something we don't have enough of in Parliament.

    My comment was directed at those who seem to think that they can change something that is happening outside UK from a local Council seat.
    Yes, I hope for most their international positions is accompanied by a similar love of getting stuck into boring and parochial local concerns - parties often don't delve into that, and you find a lot of people only do one term as it is just not for them, so indies going in you'd hope would already be interested in that stuff and the international stuff is basically just political fun and games. Otherwise they will irritate people.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,271
    Sympathies and condolences to @Cookie.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,527
    On a side issue, where does this leave Lee Anderson?

    He called SKS a liar in the Commons, and it turns out that the details were withheld by Robbins.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809

    "Just as the NHS is a prime reason for pride in Britain"

    Polly Toynbee - today's Guardian



    "During his evidence on Tuesday, April 21, Dr Malik was asked if he had ever felt pressure to not admit a [acute mental health crisis] patient or to discharge them early because of a lack of the availability of beds.

    He said he had not personally made such a decision but was aware of “15, 18, 20 people” waiting for a bed for “days and weeks”.

    This included patients who had been sectioned under the Mental Health Act, he said.

    “People go on the bed list and, if there is no bed, then if they are in an acute hospital they remain there which is not ideal, and if they are in the care home or even in the community they will remain there.

    Dr Malik said there have been times where patients have been sent to places as far away as Scotland but “sometimes there is no bed”. "


    Dr Malik giving evidence to the public inquiry on Calocane killings in Nottingham

    I just don't understand the NHS being the prime reason for pride - I like to have it, but it doesn't seem to be particularly excellent as far as Western health systems go? If others have better outcomes what is the best way to copy that?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Reports of a major incident on Moscow’s underground metro. Possibly a tunnel collapse.

    https://x.com/albafella1/status/2046572560649691200

    Keeping up with the maintenance I see…

    Blame it on Ukraine/NATO to justify a full mobilisation?
    That has to be a worry.
    Except reports are it was a train derailment and everything is back to normal
    Did social media get carried away over nothing?
    Sounds like a few Moscovites thought it was the end of the World.
    Moscovites are very much on edge. They are waiting on the big Ukrainian drone barrage on their hospitals, schools, markets, tower blocks.
    Indeed.

    They haven’t worked out yet, that while those buildings might be what Russia is targeting in Ukraine, the Ukranian targets in Russia are military bases, O&G facilities, and railway junctions.
    There's quite a lot of legitimate targets in Moscow. Railway infrastructure, defence installations (it is heavily garrisoned), government offices, factories. They probably won't go for the Kremlin as Russia would follow up on Pechersk Lavra, but even that is a working government building containing an official residence of the President
    Oh indeed, but from the Ukranian perspective they might as well use their limited ammunition on totally undefended oil refineries, rather than anything inside fortress Moscow.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    MattW said:

    On a side issue, where does this leave Lee Anderson?

    He called SKS a liar in the Commons, and it turns out that the details were withheld by Robbins.

    He got his social media clip and proved how 'tough' and 'no-nonsense' he is, why would he care about that?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    MattW said:

    On a side issue, where does this leave Lee Anderson?

    He called SKS a liar in the Commons, and it turns out that the details were withheld by Robbins.

    You’d be hard pressed to realize that from today’s media coverage. It’s been all about the so called pressure on the foreign office. The original charge against Starmer has been forgotten because Robbins gave an answer the media didn’t like .
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,818
    MattW said:

    rkrkrk said:

    There is an argument that suggests Starmer really should do an Amber Rudd and resign on principle.

    Starmer cocked up, Starmer should resign. I think I am more enraged by the knee -jerk sacking of Robbins than by the original appointment of Mandelson.

    Having dug himself into a massive political hole, Starmer is taking out his anger on the person he thinks should have refused to give him a spade.
    Robbins comes out of this terribly.

    He claims that his decision to overrule UK Security Vetting to clear Mandelson had absolutely nothing to do with pressure from "No 10" (i.e. McSweeney), which no-one in their right mind would believe.

    It's bad enough that it's now established he failed to report through his decision to overrule the vetting through to anyone at No 10, but his brazen claim that that was for anything other than the obvious explanation is risible.

    He chose to do everything by private conversation and claims to have never actually read anything, which is also conveniently self serving because there is nothing there to prove he's lying.

    He claims to be confused as to whether or not Mandelson had actually been rejected, as opposed to approved subject to mitigation, when the reports we had previously were all pointing definitively to the former, so he's unconvincingly trying to muddy the waters to save his skin.

    Even worse, months later when the whole vetting process was subject to investigation by the Cabinet Secretary in the wake of Mandelson's sacking, he covered up his actions by still keeping everything under wraps.

    None of that means that Starmer comes out of things much better, even though his initial version of events has been vindicated. Starmer's judgement in wanting to appoint Mandelson was of course suspect. But much worse was his judgement in appointing McSweeney and allowing him to so dominate the political activity at No 10, to such an extent that you wonder whether Starmer was only PM in name.
    Agree - I'm surprised others don't see it the same way. Robbins has admitted he didn't even read the report from security vetting but still overruled their recommendation. And then not told anyone.

    McSweeney comes out terribly also. And Starmer clearly had little idea of what was going on in his name, which is damning in its own way.
    My summary would be that Robbins was deceptive, and Starmer unwise.
    Starmer would appear not to have technically lied but the sacking of Robbins makes him look utterly desperate, not to mention self-serving.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    edited April 21
    rkrkrk said:

    No 10 denies putting pressure on the FCDO. But admits to repeatedly asking for updates. Which if you have ever worked in the civil service you would understand means pressure.

    (Hell, in the private sector, if the CEO's office kept asking you for updates on a project you were working on, you would regard that as pressure, if not a direct threat)

    Civil servants are supposed to speak truth to power. Good ones stand up to pressure. Apparently Philip Barton did this to insist on vetting.
    Politicians and the media hate it when civil servants do such a thing.

    It's one of those things which people agree is a good idea, until it is applied to them. And it can go wrong as either they operate their own agendas under the guise of speaking truth, or don't even bother because it'll just get them yelled at.

    That's one reason having good processes is both important and positive, but can be turned to ill ends as well, as we know all too well, and then people seek to dismantle even the useful processes as hindrances to their will. I've seen that kind of happen many times, with direct accusations made when even an actual legally required process is put in the way of 'democratic' will.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671
    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/bbcworldatone/status/2046595442561958179

    "To use the Foreign Office for vanity projects in this way is unforgivable."

    Dame Emily Thornberry criticises No 10, after Sir Olly Robbins claims Downing St wanted to find a diplomatic role for former head of communications Lord Doyle.

    Standard practice for the United States to appoint political and celebrity ambassadors.
    Yes, unlike in the UK, it’s standard in the US for a lot of the high-profile ambassador roles to be given to political appointees whenever there’s a change of President or Sec of State. There’s a lot of cronyism when it comes to some of the plush roles.
    Until Trump, it wasn't the practice to appoint family member convicted felons, though.

    Imagine if Biden had made Hunter ambassador to Paris.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,146
    Pro_Rata said:

    Cookie said:

    Hello pb. Today I am feeling sad and angry because the headteacher of my daughter's school - an excellent, approachable head, who knew and liked and valued my daughter, who runs a very happy, very effective school, who seems universally liked, who has dedicated, I think, over a decade of his life to turning his school into the sort of school he'd always dreamed of - but who, a few years off retirement was not resting on his laurels, and always looking for new improvements to make, so that when my youngest starts there next September it will be even better - after diligently staying late putting in prep for approaching GCSEs - was knocked off his bike and killed on his way home to his wife and family by a car which then failed to stop for police (though arrests were subsequently made).
    I am sad and angry for him and his family that a good man has had his life taken from him, and sad and angry for the kids at that school - including, selfishly, my own - that they have had a truly great headmaster taken from them. No doubt he also had other aspects to his life which are now suddenly poorer without him.

    This isn't an issue relevant to the wider world but I have a lot of offloading to do. Thanks for being a listening ear.

    Shocking. My sympathies to you and all at the school.
    Sincere condolences to all affected and it is a relevant issue to the wider world, at times we are all vulnerable road users, if not cyclists then pedestrians

    Sadly hit and run of vulnerable road users is all too common
    https://road.cc/news/zero-arrests-from-106-hit-and-runs-on-cyclists-in-london-last-year-as-cycling-campaigners-slam-completely-unacceptable-figures
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,923
    MattW said:

    On a side issue, where does this leave Lee Anderson?

    He called SKS a liar in the Commons, and it turns out that the details were withheld by Robbins.

    MattW said:

    On a side issue, where does this leave Lee Anderson?

    He called SKS a liar in the Commons, and it turns out that the details were withheld by Robbins.

    Lee will get net votes out of it so it leaves him fine
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,242
    MattW said:

    On a side issue, where does this leave Lee Anderson?

    He called SKS a liar in the Commons, and it turns out that the details were withheld by Robbins.

    As did Zarah Sultana. They deserve each other.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 6,056
    kle4 said:

    "Just as the NHS is a prime reason for pride in Britain"

    Polly Toynbee - today's Guardian



    "During his evidence on Tuesday, April 21, Dr Malik was asked if he had ever felt pressure to not admit a [acute mental health crisis] patient or to discharge them early because of a lack of the availability of beds.

    He said he had not personally made such a decision but was aware of “15, 18, 20 people” waiting for a bed for “days and weeks”.

    This included patients who had been sectioned under the Mental Health Act, he said.

    “People go on the bed list and, if there is no bed, then if they are in an acute hospital they remain there which is not ideal, and if they are in the care home or even in the community they will remain there.

    Dr Malik said there have been times where patients have been sent to places as far away as Scotland but “sometimes there is no bed”. "


    Dr Malik giving evidence to the public inquiry on Calocane killings in Nottingham

    I just don't understand the NHS being the prime reason for pride - I like to have it, but it doesn't seem to be particularly excellent as far as Western health systems go? If others have better outcomes what is the best way to copy that?
    I think the best way to copy it is to pick a random grab-bag of ideas after a short fact-finding visit, pick a few, realise you don't have the money, then randomly shoe-horn them in piece-meal and make things worse overall.

    Repeat that a few times and you'll get a comfy seat in the Lords.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    Cyclefree said:

    From my experience far too many people treat procedures and processes as a substitute for judgment rather than as an aid to it. Big mistake.

    Judgment is like a muscle. If you don't use it every day, it won't be there when you most need it. As we can see with Starmer.

    As ever you hit the nail on the head very well. Procedures and processes are very useful indeed, lack of them causes many problems, but it will still arrive at a point where leadership and judgement is needed.

    As a somewhat tangential point, this is one reason I don't like it when it is presumed that taking things out of the hands of politicians and into the hands of some Quango is inherently better, as it is treated as though politicians applying judgement must by definition be wrong, whereas some quango...applying judgement, but less democratically, will inherently be better. It can be, particularly technical matters, but it's not automatic.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    kle4 said:

    "Just as the NHS is a prime reason for pride in Britain"

    Polly Toynbee - today's Guardian



    "During his evidence on Tuesday, April 21, Dr Malik was asked if he had ever felt pressure to not admit a [acute mental health crisis] patient or to discharge them early because of a lack of the availability of beds.

    He said he had not personally made such a decision but was aware of “15, 18, 20 people” waiting for a bed for “days and weeks”.

    This included patients who had been sectioned under the Mental Health Act, he said.

    “People go on the bed list and, if there is no bed, then if they are in an acute hospital they remain there which is not ideal, and if they are in the care home or even in the community they will remain there.

    Dr Malik said there have been times where patients have been sent to places as far away as Scotland but “sometimes there is no bed”. "


    Dr Malik giving evidence to the public inquiry on Calocane killings in Nottingham

    I just don't understand the NHS being the prime reason for pride - I like to have it, but it doesn't seem to be particularly excellent as far as Western health systems go? If others have better outcomes what is the best way to copy that?
    Exactly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    edited April 21
    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    "Just as the NHS is a prime reason for pride in Britain"

    Polly Toynbee - today's Guardian



    "During his evidence on Tuesday, April 21, Dr Malik was asked if he had ever felt pressure to not admit a [acute mental health crisis] patient or to discharge them early because of a lack of the availability of beds.

    He said he had not personally made such a decision but was aware of “15, 18, 20 people” waiting for a bed for “days and weeks”.

    This included patients who had been sectioned under the Mental Health Act, he said.

    “People go on the bed list and, if there is no bed, then if they are in an acute hospital they remain there which is not ideal, and if they are in the care home or even in the community they will remain there.

    Dr Malik said there have been times where patients have been sent to places as far away as Scotland but “sometimes there is no bed”. "


    Dr Malik giving evidence to the public inquiry on Calocane killings in Nottingham

    I just don't understand the NHS being the prime reason for pride - I like to have it, but it doesn't seem to be particularly excellent as far as Western health systems go? If others have better outcomes what is the best way to copy that?
    I think the best way to copy it is to pick a random grab-bag of ideas after a short fact-finding visit, pick a few, realise you don't have the money, then randomly shoe-horn them in piece-meal and make things worse overall.

    Repeat that a few times and you'll get a comfy seat in the Lords.
    With that level of insight you must be earning 7 figures in a consultancy firm. :)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,141
    I can't think of many things more dishonourable than sacking an underling for your incompetence. Not unknown in the whacky world of advertising I have to admit but it always left an indelible black mark on the person who did it.

    As a long time Labour voter could I suggest to Keir Starmer that the best way of keeping what's left of his integrity intact is to resign with immediate effect and with a huge apology to Olly Robbins.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    Cyclefree said:

    Sympathies and condolences to @Cookie.

    Yes indeed. Life can be incomprehensibly cruel and arbitary at times.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809

    https://x.com/bbcworldatone/status/2046595442561958179

    "To use the Foreign Office for vanity projects in this way is unforgivable."

    Dame Emily Thornberry criticises No 10, after Sir Olly Robbins claims Downing St wanted to find a diplomatic role for former head of communications Lord Doyle.

    Standard practice for the United States to appoint political and celebrity ambassadors.
    Yes, a rather obvious and open bit of corruption (and one which firmly predates Trump), where big donors get an ambassadorship.

    Quite why they want one I am not really clear, but I suppose they cannot fork out cash for a knighthood so have to get something instead.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,923

    New Senedd Poll from YouGov f/w 6-15 April

    @YouGov have released their latest Senedd election prediction poll with @cardiffuni and @ITVCymruWales:

    Reform UK - 29% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru - 29% (-4)
    Labour - 13% (=)
    Green - 10% (-2)
    Conservatives - 8% (+1)
    Lib Dems - 6% (+1)
    Other - 4% (-1)

    Reform seem to be having a mini peak at just the right time.

    New Senedd Poll from YouGov f/w 6-15 April

    @YouGov have released their latest Senedd election prediction poll with @cardiffuni and @ITVCymruWales:

    Reform UK - 29% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru - 29% (-4)
    Labour - 13% (=)
    Green - 10% (-2)
    Conservatives - 8% (+1)
    Lib Dems - 6% (+1)
    Other - 4% (-1)

    Reform seem to be having a mini peak at just the right time.
    I think they are still 4 to 1 to win most seats
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    rkrkrk said:

    No 10 denies putting pressure on the FCDO. But admits to repeatedly asking for updates. Which if you have ever worked in the civil service you would understand means pressure.

    (Hell, in the private sector, if the CEO's office kept asking you for updates on a project you were working on, you would regard that as pressure, if not a direct threat)

    Civil servants are supposed to speak truth to power. Good ones stand up to pressure. Apparently Philip Barton did this to insist on vetting.
    Insisting on vetting was silly, all parties knew Mandelson couldn't pass unless vetting was either incompetent or dodgy itself. So if its that important just insist Mandelson can't be appointed or you will resign and make it an issue.

    Perhaps the correct thing would have been for the FO to simply publicly confirm the appointment was political, owned fully by Starmer and not subject to vetting.
This discussion has been closed.