Ohio? More like Oh No for Trump, Vance, and the Republicans – politicalbetting.com
Ohio? More like Oh No for Trump, Vance, and the Republicans – politicalbetting.com
To quote the great Scooby Doo, it's a "ruh roh" moment for Trump when it comes to Non-College White voters.His net approval is down 34 pts from last year & is now negative in avg. of polls. This decline is putting the Senate race in Ohio (a state Trump's won 3x) in play. pic.twitter.com/5JoV7Yj2iI
1
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
The BBC existed because it used to be the case that getting 'content' to people involved publicly owned airwaves. And there was a need to ensure that everyone's needs were satisfied, rather than just those people who advertisers wanted to target.
That is not the case any more. The internet has radically changed distribution. Having a 'pipe' used to make you unique. Now it's irrelevant.
I'm not sure what benefit the country accrues from there being a publicy owned video distribution platform in an age of streaming, instead the BBC should be in the business of procuring -mostly from the private sector- programming content where there is market failure. I.e., educational content, or Welsh language, for example. I think one can may also make the case for local radio.
But other than that, why is the BBC spending money competing with Netflix, Amazon, ITV and the like in producing light entertainment content?
However, while MAGA still back the conflict with Iran, swing voters don't and that will create problems for him in the general election
Section 4 enables Congress by law to provide an alternative to the Cabinet to support the Veep in ousting the President.
The problem is Congress has not passed any law to do so, and to pass a law to do so requires going through full legislative procedures . . . which could be vetoed by the President.
So would require not just Vance to turn on Trump, but a two thirds majority in the Senate to override a veto too.
If two thirds of the Senate wanted him gone, impeachment would not need Vance.
Trump: Thom Tillis is no longer a senator.
Bartiromo: ...
Trump: Thom Tillis is no longer a senator, right?
https://x.com/HQNewsNow/status/2044413451678658863
*appropriately, autocorrect tried to change this to "performative mess".
Also, Trump never did anything at a high class level.
Holy shit
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/2044410267337994710
Although the US seems to have dispensed with compis mentis as a requirement for its leaders of late.
Vance was notably less critical of the Pope, saying he was entitled to give his views on the issues of the day but should not get too involved in politics. As he knows Roman Catholics are key swing voters in the US, voting for Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 and Trump again in 2024. As well as being Roman Catholic himself he also needs their votes in 2028
YouTube now has a greater real-world monthly reach than the BBC.
Anyway, all Trafford wards have at least five candidates (Con – strangely branded as ‘local conservative’ in wards in the northern half of Trafford – Grn, LD, Lab, Ref), with Advance making it up to six in 6 wards out of 21, a smattering of independents, and the SDP standing a lone candidate, though not in my ward.
There is quiet enjoyment to be had from picturing the candidates from their names alone: Bowdon ward, for example, offers us Ron Hutton of Advance and Ludo Tolhurst-Cleaver of the Lib Dems, while Brooklands offers John Spencer Churchill for Reform and Renate Aspden for the Green Party, all of which are surely names created by AI trying to come up with likely-sounding names for those parties. Similarly the Reform candidates Billy Burke, Bill Sumner and Charles William Oliver Rear, the Green Party’s Centaine Wendy Parker, the Lib Dems’ Will Frass, the Conservative Party’s Rupert Owen Kelly and the Labour Party’s Seth Champion (though AI appears here to be suggesting a candidate for the Labour Party circa 1955).
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/trafford-council-local-elections-2026-33751246
I certainly watch far more YouTube than BBC output and I’m older generation. Far fewer younger people watch it.
Interesting from the BBC call. Hopefully the license fee is not long for this world.
‘ I have now heard audio from the BBC internal call and wanted to clarify Rhodri Talfan Davies' quote. He actually said: "We have a funding model at the moment that is unsustainable and is reaching the end of its sell-by date."’
https://x.com/jake_kanter/status/2044434249537683896?s=61
BBC Sport was the envy of the World, they've slowly lost every major a sport, many popular nice ones and now focus on mind numbing snooker and darts, why, because it cheap and low cost to cocer
BBC Politics and Current Affairs was once the envy of the world the World believed the BBC. It has declined over the past 20 years, especially so over the past 10 years, and is unwatchable under Robbie Gibb
They have neutered local Radio and TV News.
The drama is occasionally still excellent
Specialised Radio Channels listenable.
It's a dinosaur near extinction
The various British museums are putting out some good factual work on low budgets without jetting around the world. The BBC could really learn from them and create more new works at a much lower price point.
I'm quite enamoured with Bonhoeffeur's Theory of Stupidity (and how it is more dangerous than evil). This is from his Letters and Papers from Prison. Someone summarising on Reddit.
Key Points from Bonhoeffer’s Theory of Stupidity:-
▪︎ Stupidity is socially conditioned: It often emerges when people surrender their autonomy to group ideology or power structures, especially under authoritarian regimes.
▪︎ Stupidity resists correction: Logical arguments, facts, and protests are ineffective against it, unlike evil, which can be confronted and exposed.
▪︎ Stupid people believe they are right: They act with the conviction of righteousness, making them immune to self-critique or external critique.
▪︎ Stupidity is not the same as ignorance: It is not a lack of knowledge but the refusal or incapacity to think critically.
Evil vs Stupidity:
• Evil knows it is wrong, creating inner conflict and potential collapse.
• Stupidity believes it is right, shielding itself completely.
▪︎ Slogans replace thought: The stupid person speaks in catchwords and slogans, not from personal reasoning, but from what has “taken possession” of them.
▪︎ Hope for overcoming stupidity: Bonhoeffer believed stupidity can only be overcome by liberation of the inner person and regaining personal responsibility, not by force or argument alone.
Some more: https://www.reddit.com/r/askphilosophy/comments/1lpty5u/bonhoeffer_on_stupidity_evil_still_relevant_today/
True, there are massive gaps in the archive but there is still a colossal amount of good stuff in there.
The ineffable cluelessness of JD.
Vice President JD Vance on Iran:
"I recognize that a lot of young voters don’t love the policy that we have on the Middle East… Don’t disengage because you disagree with the admin on one topic."
https://x.com/amconmag/status/2044185228474740791
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/new-hungarian-pm-says-government-was-funding-cpac-but-won-t-anymore/ar-AA20TFpq
There may be a steady drip-drip of this.
@pickardje.bsky.social
glorious intro from Marina Hyde:
"You hear such a lot from Maga Republicans about how liberals think Trump voters are stupid. But not nearly enough about the far more salient point: that Donald Trump thinks Trump voters are stupid."
https://bsky.app/profile/pickardje.bsky.social/post/3mjkacs3gmk2h
I love BBC Radio 6 but it is less good than it was ten years ago - there has been a degree of dumbing down.
The right falling to the same delusion the left has had for decades - 'we need a progressive alliance, there is a natural left-wing majority' was always the cry and never true
Different parties are different parties for a reason
https://nitter.poast.org/HugoGye/status/2044354065119724018#m
They used to show the BDO but it went to C4, before COVID, before it folded and they showed a seniors comp a few years back, nothing since.
Sky and ITV are the home of darts and very good at it they are too.
It should be actual public service TV, doing what the market won’t.
It's one reason I don't believe doom and gloom about how politics is broken, which shocked a colleague who had pressed me on why I don't think citizen assemblies are a good idea (basically I think outside of particular rare issues things can be dealt with through our current systems, and assemblies presume that system cannot be trusted, which I don't think is true).
On 'Local Conservatives' they were using that one a lot last year too, probably before then.
https://youtu.be/MN_9VqfVQ9c?si=8lUI40VMO7ihrNAV
House Democrats unveiled articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Wednesday, making serious allegations about his handling of the war in Iran and his leadership more broadly.
https://bsky.app/profile/cbsnews.com/post/3mjkdry23lw2u
This problem is not unique to the USA.
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 26% (+1)
GRN: 20% (=)
CON: 17% (=)
LAB: 16% (=)
LDM: 11% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @FindoutnowUK, 15 Apr.
Changes w/ 8 Apr
You're right that impeachment is easier, and I'm sure plenty of high crimes and misdemeanors could be found if they actually wanted to.
Dem candidates should now do what Harris didn't and include them in their electoral campaign contrasting Biden's action with Trump's talk.
🌹 LAB: 32 (-33) — 23%
➡️ RFM: 26 (+26) — 22%
🌳 CON: 25 (+2) — 18%
🔶 LDM: 10 (-2) — 10%
🌍 GRN: 7 (+2) — 16%
👤 IND: 1 (+1) — 11%
https://x.com/i/status/2044445537676529703
Very little in politics is completely outside questions of 'what is right and what is wrong'. The stuff of ethical thinking both religious and secular.
I was expecting a Green/Gaza Indy coalition.
Inflation was falling dramatically at the end of his term (and continued to do so for a while after Trump took office).
The Democrats of course but zero credit for that.
It will be no different this time (except the trend is for now upwards, thanks to Iran).
The Daily Mail has now twice reset this poll to zero because people keep voting to rejoin. It now stands at 82% rejoin so expect another reset very soon.
https://x.com/archer_rs/status/2044388754303988202
https://www.northcoastsmokehouse.com/
But the focus should be on radio (transmission + internet) where very high quality is very cheap compared with TV. Radio/sound is where the heart of public service broadcasting should be. Nearly all the vision+ sound stuff is done better by others.
Marina Hyde is one of the only things worth going to the Guardian website for...
Those halcyon days when there was Harry Pearson on sport, decent recipes, Bell and Rowson in tandem and you could leave the saturday magazine in the bathroom without a curious child asking you what polyamory or S&M dungeons are...
Leon appears to be telling you he's on a road to nowhere.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
37m
Sorry, but this poll is complete and utter rubbish. There will not be only be a single Independent councillor in Birmingham after next month's elections. I genuinely can't believe ITV broadcast this.
@DPJHodges
·
20m
It's not difficult. The poll is 100% wrong. There's going to be a major breakthrough by Independents in Birmingham. It's going to be one of the stories of election night. How can you seriously broadcast a poll that predicts Independents will only win a single seat.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2044460821493817534
I wonder if there is a metric somewhere on how likely it is for Independents to be elected based on the number of Independent candidates there are - obviously it depends very much on the nature of the Independent, but if you have lots presumably the chances of some being very plausible increased in a somewhat predictable way. In which case is there a tipping point - like in Cornwall they traditionally have high numbers of Independents.
The weather is better than here in The North East
It's much the Starmer government's theme. Promise today what nobody will notice that you've failed to deliver tomorrow.
To be fair the Tories were great players of this idea too, and most certainly it was a Tory idea stolen and perfected by Starmer.
But, you know, as voters and PB posters* we're not numpties.
(* The list of those PB posters that are numpties has been mislaid in the mail. RM expect to find it before Xmas, although they didn't say which one)
Surely pollsters need to be transparent about their methodology, carry out their polls, and tell us what they say whether it "smells" right or not? If they turn out to be wrong, we can all criticise their methodology later.
Dan Hodges should frankly be delighted about a pollster publishing a poll where he thinks he knows better. If he turns out to be right and the pollster wrong, then I am sure he will loudly let us know how much better an insightful commentator like himself knows than pollsters carrying out surveys from their ivory towers. If the poll wasn't published, he'd not have that opportunity.
But I’d be interested in Feersum’s take and have tagged him.
@christopherjhale.bsky.social
BREAKING: The U.S. bishops’ Committee on Doctrine just issued a formal statement defending Pope Leo XIV's teaching authority on just war doctrine — less than twelve hours after JD Vance told a Turning Point USA crowd the pope should “be careful” talking theology.
https://bsky.app/profile/christopherjhale.bsky.social/post/3mjkezzu7dc2w
@lisaocarroll
Trump says he is opening the Strait of Hormuz for China…. And Xi will hug him
Is it because China accused the US of “dangerous and irresponsible” behaviour re the strait of Hormuz, and has vowed to retaliate against the threat of US tariffs.
https://x.com/lisaocarroll/status/2044462228204638681?s=20
Mind you everyone else is THERE as well, and not here, so it must be pretty crowded there. Sympathies
His third wedding was in a church. Bill and Hillary Clinton were guests. But I don't know of any visits since then.
Theo Bertram
@theobertram
So many new councils are going to be elected on a mandate for Gaza/immigration/getting rid of Starmer/a 10:1 earnings ratio, and then actually be responsible for something completely different, for which they have no clear mandate, namely funding and managing social care.
https://x.com/theobertram/status/2044417534040957143
The BBC if it had grasped the nettle might have had a chance to become a British/European Netflix like enterprise, raking in the cash, making more programmes than ever, able to properly fund news and current affairs, and able to keep UK costs manageable. Fat chance of anything like that happening now.