Trump banging on this afternoon about drilling the North Sea and no more windmills.
Too stupid to see that his interventions make Lab minister less likely to do any changes as he is in favour.
Let's hope he comes over to campaign for Farage in the May elections.
For the May elections, we've had 3 letters by Royal Mail from Reform, one Focus leaflet and absolutely nothing from any other party. The incumbent Conservatives either don't have any money or they can't be bothered.
Still two weeks.
But yes it is possible Cons are saving their money as there is no point just burning it.
They have to take their punishment beating.
Printing is dirt cheap, though. You don't even particularly need the special in-house printers that charge suspiciously low rates any more. (One of my favourite campaigns saw a visible decline in print quality as it became more desperate to do another leaflet from a declining budget.)
The much harder bit is finding people to put the bits of paper through letterboxes. St Edward's ward, Romford, probably has about 3000 letterboxes. As they say, you do the maths...
There's a free post though via royal mail? Or is that only GE?
Trump banging on this afternoon about drilling the North Sea and no more windmills.
Too stupid to see that his interventions make Lab minister less likely to do any changes as he is in favour.
Let's hope he comes over to campaign for Farage in the May elections.
For the May elections, we've had 3 letters by Royal Mail from Reform, one Focus leaflet and absolutely nothing from any other party. The incumbent Conservatives either don't have any money or they can't be bothered.
Still two weeks.
But yes it is possible Cons are saving their money as there is no point just burning it.
They have to take their punishment beating.
Printing is dirt cheap, though. You don't even particularly need the special in-house printers that charge suspiciously low rates any more. (One of my favourite campaigns saw a visible decline in print quality as it became more desperate to do another leaflet from a declining budget.)
The much harder bit is finding people to put the bits of paper through letterboxes. St Edward's ward, Romford, probably has about 3000 letterboxes. As they say, you do the maths...
There's a free post though via royal mail? Or is that only GE?
What if you want it to actually arrive, preferably before the election date?
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
The collapse in the leave vote is heavily linked to Covid (and its economic impacts), the war in Ukraine (and its economic impacts) and the general feeling of national decline.
Imagine if Remain had won and then covid and Ukraine had happened. What would Leave be polling now?
Probably much as they are now, because an awful lot of what we've seen is the action of the Grim Reaper. Here's the Ipsos breakdown of the 2016 referendum by age:
Now roll those ages forward a decade. Leaverdom had to run very fast to stand still, and they haven't, because it hasn't been seen as a success. But a lot of what we're seeing looks like an identity thing. It's not that people have changed their minds, it's that the people have changed, and will continue to do so.
(And before anyone starts, this isn't about wishing Leave voters dead, it's just observing that death comes to us all.)
Why did so many incumbent governments get turfed out in the last four years? It wasn’t Brexit as that only applies to us. It was the economic effects of Covid and the war. It’s mad to deny this. For sure 10 years have passed and perhaps some shift can be attributed to that but I stand by my thesis that if remain had won, leave would now be ahead in the polls.
I think Labour being ahead on most seats is probably the most likely outcome of the next GE right now.
For once casino, we are in full agreement.
Labour back up to 30% ish by GE imho
Could be better than that if you are a Labour voter. Looking at all the polls of the last several months most give an aggregate of Labour and Green at between 35-37%. Round and about where they were at the last election.
Reform look like they'll pick up the Tory anti EU vote. Say 30% between them and the rump Tories. I can't see any tactical voting between those two losers so as you were and we'll all live happily ever after.
Obviously the Libs will keep therir seats and Labour/Green will get a new leader with a personality. Possibly a redheaded female
Are you confident the Labour party is ready for a female leader?
Clearly no country is going to sign up to something that you can’t leave . And the EU don’t want another UK psychodrama .
The UK can’t just call another EU referendum without the EU actually agreeing to even contemplate the UK rejoining.
It would be a waste of time to call a referendum and then the EU says sorry no thanks . There has to be a very strong majority in favour in polling and the terms of re-joining laid out clearly .
Even though I’m very pro EU I think it might be better to contemplate EEA membership which comes without the CU, CFP and CAP.
There are more restrictions on FOM within that .
I think that’s more feasible and could happen more quickly .
The EEA has more restrictions on FoM than EU membership? Interesting. Do you have a link?
“More controversially, from the perspective of those who voted ‘leave’ in the referendum, the principle of free movement of persons applies. However, it is a more limited version of free movement, as it is not underpinned by the idea of citizenship of the Union.
It gives rights to those who are economically active (workers, the self-employed) and those semi-economically active (students and persons of independent means) but not to the economically inactive.
There is what might pass as an emergency brake on free movement: Article 112 states that ‘if serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist are arising, a contracting party may unilaterally take appropriate measures’ (subject to further procedures laid down in Article 113).”
EFTA/EEA is the obvious route for us.
As to EU and referenda, SFAICS the only serious option would be to agree everything with the EU for re-entry and the whole package to be put to a referendum at that point. Otherwise the 'pig in a poke' problem is inevitable.
The problem with that is that a referendum where you actually knew the grisly details of the deal and not just metaphysical hand waving (Euro, Schengen, rule taking, FoM, ever closer union, cost) would be hard to win.
Clearly no country is going to sign up to something that you can’t leave . And the EU don’t want another UK psychodrama .
The UK can’t just call another EU referendum without the EU actually agreeing to even contemplate the UK rejoining.
It would be a waste of time to call a referendum and then the EU says sorry no thanks . There has to be a very strong majority in favour in polling and the terms of re-joining laid out clearly .
Even though I’m very pro EU I think it might be better to contemplate EEA membership which comes without the CU, CFP and CAP.
There are more restrictions on FOM within that .
I think that’s more feasible and could happen more quickly .
The EEA has more restrictions on FoM than EU membership? Interesting. Do you have a link?
“More controversially, from the perspective of those who voted ‘leave’ in the referendum, the principle of free movement of persons applies. However, it is a more limited version of free movement, as it is not underpinned by the idea of citizenship of the Union.
It gives rights to those who are economically active (workers, the self-employed) and those semi-economically active (students and persons of independent means) but not to the economically inactive.
There is what might pass as an emergency brake on free movement: Article 112 states that ‘if serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist are arising, a contracting party may unilaterally take appropriate measures’ (subject to further procedures laid down in Article 113).”
EFTA/EEA is the obvious route for us.
As to EU and referenda, SFAICS the only serious option would be to agree everything with the EU for re-entry and the whole package to be put to a referendum at that point. Otherwise the 'pig in a poke' problem is inevitable.
The problem with that is that a referendum where you actually knew the grisly details of the deal and not just metaphysical hand waving (Euro, Schengen, rule taking, FoM, ever closer union, cost) would be hard to win.
An interesting asymmetry: to join, everything must be agreed before the vote; to leave, after the vote.
I think Labour being ahead on most seats is probably the most likely outcome of the next GE right now.
For once casino, we are in full agreement.
Labour back up to 30% ish by GE imho
The Green surge may be real, but it's very sudden even though they've been about for decades. Despite the impressive impact from Polanski they are no different than they were 2 years ago.
So i'd be concerned with their staying power and how firm switchers are.
Their policy on open boarders and drugs kills them stone dead.
It is Corbyn all over again. Popular until the policies actually have a real chance.
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
It is pretty obvious to anyone who goes on holiday or business to the EU that Brexit was folly and that the Europeans have a better life than us, except perhaps in the areas of Britain that voted Remain.
Leavers are still resentful of the failure of their precious, which becomes more obvious over time. No one likes being slapped in the face by their poor choice every time they visit.
It's not obvious at all, and I don't think they do - not a bit of it. Brexit hasn't affected my European experience at all.
You're projecting.
Im still waiting for someone to explain how if the EU was so excellent for our economy how come we have slipped down all the ranking tables since we joined ?
The Government has closed 11 more asylum hotels as more migrants move to military barracks
- Banbury House Hotel - Marine Court Hotel - 15 Citrus Hotel - Holiday Inn Heathrow - Britannia Hotel - Madeley Court Hotel - OYO Lakeside - Crewe Arms Hotel - Sure Hotel by Best Western - The Rock Hotel - Wool Merchant Hotel
I think Labour being ahead on most seats is probably the most likely outcome of the next GE right now.
For once casino, we are in full agreement.
Labour back up to 30% ish by GE imho
The Green surge may be real, but it's very sudden even though they've been about for decades. Despite the impressive impact from Polanski they are no different than they were 2 years ago.
So i'd be concerned with their staying power and how firm switchers are.
Their policy on open boarders and drugs kills them stone dead.
It is Corbyn all over again. Popular until the policies actually have a real chance.
The trouble is that these poll findings are inconsistent and people are poor at predicting their future behaviour.
Well over half don't want closer alignment with EU laws and regulations, which is exactly what Rejoin is.
It's almost as if the header headline is misleading....
It's almost as though you and Casino are in denial over the large shift in public opinion since Brexit.
Not at all. I voted Remain and would be happy with the Euro. I'm just a realist about British public opinion and the EU. The PB bubble flatters to receive.
Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 3h I know we're all looking at oil.
But live cattle just rose above $2.5 per lb for the first time (to an all-time high). The BBQ season in America is going to be rather expensive for flipping burgers.
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
It is pretty obvious to anyone who goes on holiday or business to the EU that Brexit was folly and that the Europeans have a better life than us, except perhaps in the areas of Britain that voted Remain.
Leavers are still resentful of the failure of their precious, which becomes more obvious over time. No one likes being slapped in the face by their poor choice every time they visit.
It's not obvious at all, and I don't think they do - not a bit of it. Brexit hasn't affected my European experience at all.
You're projecting.
Im still waiting for someone to explain how if the EU was so excellent for our economy how come we have slipped down all the ranking tables since we joined ?
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
It is pretty obvious to anyone who goes on holiday or business to the EU that Brexit was folly and that the Europeans have a better life than us, except perhaps in the areas of Britain that voted Remain.
Leavers are still resentful of the failure of their precious, which becomes more obvious over time. No one likes being slapped in the face by their poor choice every time they visit.
It's not obvious at all, and I don't think they do - not a bit of it. Brexit hasn't affected my European experience at all.
You're projecting.
Im still waiting for someone to explain how if the EU was so excellent for our economy how come we have slipped down all the ranking tables since we joined ?
36 years of Tory government since Britain joined.
Britain is [mostly] the country Tories made.
But the shit years were Labour...
In the 81 years since the end of WWII, the Tories have been in government for 49 years. 60%. Britain is so happy with how the country turned out that the Tories received a record vote share at the last general election.
A record low vote share.
Might it not be worth a bit of introspection over what went wrong with Tory Britain over the decades?
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
It is pretty obvious to anyone who goes on holiday or business to the EU that Brexit was folly and that the Europeans have a better life than us, except perhaps in the areas of Britain that voted Remain.
Leavers are still resentful of the failure of their precious, which becomes more obvious over time. No one likes being slapped in the face by their poor choice every time they visit.
It's not obvious at all, and I don't think they do - not a bit of it. Brexit hasn't affected my European experience at all.
You're projecting.
Im still waiting for someone to explain how if the EU was so excellent for our economy how come we have slipped down all the ranking tables since we joined ?
What the polling actually shows is that Brits want a closer relationship with Europe but without alignment with EU laws and regulations. Only half of Brits saying they would vote Remain in a rerun EU referendum is not a massive margin for rejoin either and only 51% of Brits wanting another rejoin the EU referendum is not a huge lead either
Clearly no country is going to sign up to something that you can’t leave . And the EU don’t want another UK psychodrama .
The UK can’t just call another EU referendum without the EU actually agreeing to even contemplate the UK rejoining.
It would be a waste of time to call a referendum and then the EU says sorry no thanks . There has to be a very strong majority in favour in polling and the terms of re-joining laid out clearly .
Even though I’m very pro EU I think it might be better to contemplate EEA membership which comes without the CU, CFP and CAP.
There are more restrictions on FOM within that .
I think that’s more feasible and could happen more quickly .
The EEA has more restrictions on FoM than EU membership? Interesting. Do you have a link?
“More controversially, from the perspective of those who voted ‘leave’ in the referendum, the principle of free movement of persons applies. However, it is a more limited version of free movement, as it is not underpinned by the idea of citizenship of the Union.
It gives rights to those who are economically active (workers, the self-employed) and those semi-economically active (students and persons of independent means) but not to the economically inactive.
There is what might pass as an emergency brake on free movement: Article 112 states that ‘if serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist are arising, a contracting party may unilaterally take appropriate measures’ (subject to further procedures laid down in Article 113).”
EFTA/EEA is the obvious route for us.
As to EU and referenda, SFAICS the only serious option would be to agree everything with the EU for re-entry and the whole package to be put to a referendum at that point. Otherwise the 'pig in a poke' problem is inevitable.
The problem with that is that a referendum where you actually knew the grisly details of the deal and not just metaphysical hand waving (Euro, Schengen, rule taking, FoM, ever closer union, cost) would be hard to win.
An interesting asymmetry: to join, everything must be agreed before the vote; to leave, after the vote.
Yes. The asymmetry is real. Under Article 50, as it was understood in 2016 (there was a case on it in 2018 which may have changed things) it isn't possible to agree terms with the EU, hold a referendum and then trigger article 50 if the referendum agrees. You were (or seemed to be) obliged to buy an unknown relationship with the EU in leaving as you can't start discussions until triggering article 50.
However, IMO even so the government in 2016 should have made clear what its intentions were in some detail if we left and published a document outlining its 5-10 year plan for a Brexit world.
Justine Roberts: I’ve got an alternative modern-day question — which is which is your favourite AI chatbot? What do you use?
Rachel Reeves: I don’t use anything.
Justine Roberts: You don't use any? None of the LLMs?
Rachel Reeves: No.
Justine Roberts: It could really help.
Rachel Reeves: Maybe that's where I'm going wrong.
I like her better already.
It’s a hostage to fortune.
It won’t be hard to find tons of documents that have her signature on that were the product of an LLM.
Why? Because the people working for her will be using it non-stop.
Probably my somewhat flippant response is driven by backlash to my work having bought up eleventy squillion Microsoft Copilot licences and then have proceeded to badger us every day about why we're not using it, when their top suggestions of what you can use it for are...summarising an email thread or...writing an email.
Genuinely some of the advice that has been shared is to "consult Copilot before doing anything or writing any email", which sounds like total horseshit to me.
What the polling actually shows is that Brits want a closer relationship with Europe but without alignment with EU laws and regulations. Only half of Brits saying they would vote Remain in a rerun EU referendum is not a massive margin for rejoin either and only 51% of Brits wanting another rejoin the EU referendum is not a huge lead either
Closer relationship means alignment with EU laws and regulations. Maybe except defence where the EU doesn't have a defined position.
The Government has closed 11 more asylum hotels as more migrants move to military barracks
- Banbury House Hotel - Marine Court Hotel - 15 Citrus Hotel - Holiday Inn Heathrow - Britannia Hotel - Madeley Court Hotel - OYO Lakeside - Crewe Arms Hotel - Sure Hotel by Best Western - The Rock Hotel - Wool Merchant Hotel
Mostly moved to private accomodation, actually. Hotel prices go down, rent goes up. Not great.
Clearly no country is going to sign up to something that you can’t leave . And the EU don’t want another UK psychodrama .
The UK can’t just call another EU referendum without the EU actually agreeing to even contemplate the UK rejoining.
It would be a waste of time to call a referendum and then the EU says sorry no thanks . There has to be a very strong majority in favour in polling and the terms of re-joining laid out clearly .
Even though I’m very pro EU I think it might be better to contemplate EEA membership which comes without the CU, CFP and CAP.
There are more restrictions on FOM within that .
I think that’s more feasible and could happen more quickly .
The EEA has more restrictions on FoM than EU membership? Interesting. Do you have a link?
“More controversially, from the perspective of those who voted ‘leave’ in the referendum, the principle of free movement of persons applies. However, it is a more limited version of free movement, as it is not underpinned by the idea of citizenship of the Union.
It gives rights to those who are economically active (workers, the self-employed) and those semi-economically active (students and persons of independent means) but not to the economically inactive.
There is what might pass as an emergency brake on free movement: Article 112 states that ‘if serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist are arising, a contracting party may unilaterally take appropriate measures’ (subject to further procedures laid down in Article 113).”
EFTA/EEA is the obvious route for us.
As to EU and referenda, SFAICS the only serious option would be to agree everything with the EU for re-entry and the whole package to be put to a referendum at that point. Otherwise the 'pig in a poke' problem is inevitable.
The problem with that is that a referendum where you actually knew the grisly details of the deal and not just metaphysical hand waving (Euro, Schengen, rule taking, FoM, ever closer union, cost) would be hard to win.
I suspect the next union will be more defence based with some economic mutual favours attached, rather than a primarily economics based relationship.
Clearly no country is going to sign up to something that you can’t leave . And the EU don’t want another UK psychodrama .
The UK can’t just call another EU referendum without the EU actually agreeing to even contemplate the UK rejoining.
It would be a waste of time to call a referendum and then the EU says sorry no thanks . There has to be a very strong majority in favour in polling and the terms of re-joining laid out clearly .
Even though I’m very pro EU I think it might be better to contemplate EEA membership which comes without the CU, CFP and CAP.
There are more restrictions on FOM within that .
I think that’s more feasible and could happen more quickly .
The EEA has more restrictions on FoM than EU membership? Interesting. Do you have a link?
“More controversially, from the perspective of those who voted ‘leave’ in the referendum, the principle of free movement of persons applies. However, it is a more limited version of free movement, as it is not underpinned by the idea of citizenship of the Union.
It gives rights to those who are economically active (workers, the self-employed) and those semi-economically active (students and persons of independent means) but not to the economically inactive.
There is what might pass as an emergency brake on free movement: Article 112 states that ‘if serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist are arising, a contracting party may unilaterally take appropriate measures’ (subject to further procedures laid down in Article 113).”
EFTA/EEA is the obvious route for us.
As to EU and referenda, SFAICS the only serious option would be to agree everything with the EU for re-entry and the whole package to be put to a referendum at that point. Otherwise the 'pig in a poke' problem is inevitable.
The problem with that is that a referendum where you actually knew the grisly details of the deal and not just metaphysical hand waving (Euro, Schengen, rule taking, FoM, ever closer union, cost) would be hard to win.
An interesting asymmetry: to join, everything must be agreed before the vote; to leave, after the vote.
Yes. The asymmetry is real. Under Article 50, as it was understood in 2016 (there was a case on it in 2018 which may have changed things) it isn't possible to agree terms with the EU, hold a referendum and then trigger article 50 if the referendum agrees. You were (or seemed to be) obliged to buy an unknown relationship with the EU in leaving as you can't start discussions until triggering article 50.
However, IMO even so the government in 2016 should have made clear what its intentions were in some detail if we left and published a document outlining its 5-10 year plan for a Brexit world.
Indeed it should. A pity Mr Cameron knew he didn't need a plan for leaving. It was always pointless expecting a coalition of discontents to draw up detailed plans. They don't have the staff. Contingency plans were a matter for government.
Clearly no country is going to sign up to something that you can’t leave . And the EU don’t want another UK psychodrama .
The UK can’t just call another EU referendum without the EU actually agreeing to even contemplate the UK rejoining.
It would be a waste of time to call a referendum and then the EU says sorry no thanks . There has to be a very strong majority in favour in polling and the terms of re-joining laid out clearly .
Even though I’m very pro EU I think it might be better to contemplate EEA membership which comes without the CU, CFP and CAP.
There are more restrictions on FOM within that .
I think that’s more feasible and could happen more quickly .
The EEA has more restrictions on FoM than EU membership? Interesting. Do you have a link?
“More controversially, from the perspective of those who voted ‘leave’ in the referendum, the principle of free movement of persons applies. However, it is a more limited version of free movement, as it is not underpinned by the idea of citizenship of the Union.
It gives rights to those who are economically active (workers, the self-employed) and those semi-economically active (students and persons of independent means) but not to the economically inactive.
There is what might pass as an emergency brake on free movement: Article 112 states that ‘if serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties of a sectorial or regional nature liable to persist are arising, a contracting party may unilaterally take appropriate measures’ (subject to further procedures laid down in Article 113).”
EFTA/EEA is the obvious route for us.
As to EU and referenda, SFAICS the only serious option would be to agree everything with the EU for re-entry and the whole package to be put to a referendum at that point. Otherwise the 'pig in a poke' problem is inevitable.
The problem with that is that a referendum where you actually knew the grisly details of the deal and not just metaphysical hand waving (Euro, Schengen, rule taking, FoM, ever closer union, cost) would be hard to win.
An interesting asymmetry: to join, everything must be agreed before the vote; to leave, after the vote.
Yes. The asymmetry is real. Under Article 50, as it was understood in 2016 (there was a case on it in 2018 which may have changed things) it isn't possible to agree terms with the EU, hold a referendum and then trigger article 50 if the referendum agrees. You were (or seemed to be) obliged to buy an unknown relationship with the EU in leaving as you can't start discussions until triggering article 50.
However, IMO even so the government in 2016 should have made clear what its intentions were in some detail if we left and published a document outlining its 5-10 year plan for a Brexit world.
But uncertainty is scary. And their job was to scare people.
You questioned the figures in David Turver's table as follows:
He still doesn't explain what the "CFD subsidy" line item is. This all he says about it: £83/MWh or 52% of revenue coming from subsidies in April 2025. It doesn't include constraint payments as these are part of balancing costs, which are a separate line item in his table. CFD subsidies outwith the CFD strike price is not something I have heard of from anyone else slightly knowledgeable about energy generation.
A comment on the Substack thread appears to ask the same thing, and be answered by the author (apologies in advance for the micropic).
In other words, you were correct, the subsidy line was not constraint, it was the cost of subsidising providers up to the average strike price, which appears to be dramatically in excess of what you thought it was.
The Government has closed 11 more asylum hotels as more migrants move to military barracks
- Banbury House Hotel - Marine Court Hotel - 15 Citrus Hotel - Holiday Inn Heathrow - Britannia Hotel - Madeley Court Hotel - OYO Lakeside - Crewe Arms Hotel - Sure Hotel by Best Western - The Rock Hotel - Wool Merchant Hotel
Mostly moved to private accomodation, actually. Hotel prices go down, rent goes up. Not great.
If the Americans close their bases here, there will be plenty of space to accommodate new migrants for a year r two.
Justine Roberts: I’ve got an alternative modern-day question — which is which is your favourite AI chatbot? What do you use?
Rachel Reeves: I don’t use anything.
Justine Roberts: You don't use any? None of the LLMs?
Rachel Reeves: No.
Justine Roberts: It could really help.
Rachel Reeves: Maybe that's where I'm going wrong.
I like her better already.
It’s a hostage to fortune.
It won’t be hard to find tons of documents that have her signature on that were the product of an LLM.
Why? Because the people working for her will be using it non-stop.
Probably my somewhat flippant response is driven by backlash to my work having bought up eleventy squillion Microsoft Copilot licences and then have proceeded to badger us every day about why we're not using it, when their top suggestions of what you can use it for are...summarising an email thread or...writing an email.
Genuinely some of the advice that has been shared is to "consult Copilot before doing anything or writing any email", which sounds like total horseshit to me.
Sure.
But the problem is that no matter what you do, it creeps in.
If you ban LLMs in an office, people email themselves stuff, run it on ChatGPT and send the results back.
Given that security can’t detect people emailing the PMs stuff to Epstein, who thinks that they would notice if half the treasury is putting government policy through an American based LLM?
Justine Roberts: I’ve got an alternative modern-day question — which is which is your favourite AI chatbot? What do you use?
Rachel Reeves: I don’t use anything.
Justine Roberts: You don't use any? None of the LLMs?
Rachel Reeves: No.
Justine Roberts: It could really help.
Rachel Reeves: Maybe that's where I'm going wrong.
I like her better already.
It’s a hostage to fortune.
It won’t be hard to find tons of documents that have her signature on that were the product of an LLM.
Why? Because the people working for her will be using it non-stop.
Probably my somewhat flippant response is driven by backlash to my work having bought up eleventy squillion Microsoft Copilot licences and then have proceeded to badger us every day about why we're not using it, when their top suggestions of what you can use it for are...summarising an email thread or...writing an email.
Genuinely some of the advice that has been shared is to "consult Copilot before doing anything or writing any email", which sounds like total horseshit to me.
Sure.
But the problem is that no matter what you do, it creeps in.
If you ban LLMs in an office, people email themselves stuff, run it on ChatGPT and send the results back.
Given that security can’t detect people emailing the PMs stuff to Epstein, who thinks that they would notice if half the treasury is putting government policy through an American based LLM?
Oh I've no problem if other folk in my office want to use an LLM.
I'm just irritated by the senior management attitude of "we've spent lots of money on this and we're frustrated because it's not turned out to have supercharged our organisation and/or have allowed us to get rid of loads of you yet, so now we're going to badger you to use it for minor shit because 'efficiencies', rather than fixing the bigger issues we actually have"
Justine Roberts: I’ve got an alternative modern-day question — which is which is your favourite AI chatbot? What do you use?
Rachel Reeves: I don’t use anything.
Justine Roberts: You don't use any? None of the LLMs?
Rachel Reeves: No.
Justine Roberts: It could really help.
Rachel Reeves: Maybe that's where I'm going wrong.
I like her better already.
It’s a hostage to fortune.
It won’t be hard to find tons of documents that have her signature on that were the product of an LLM.
Why? Because the people working for her will be using it non-stop.
Probably my somewhat flippant response is driven by backlash to my work having bought up eleventy squillion Microsoft Copilot licences and then have proceeded to badger us every day about why we're not using it, when their top suggestions of what you can use it for are...summarising an email thread or...writing an email.
Genuinely some of the advice that has been shared is to "consult Copilot before doing anything or writing any email", which sounds like total horseshit to me.
Sure.
But the problem is that no matter what you do, it creeps in.
If you ban LLMs in an office, people email themselves stuff, run it on ChatGPT and send the results back.
Given that security can’t detect people emailing the PMs stuff to Epstein, who thinks that they would notice if half the treasury is putting government policy through an American based LLM?
We may as well just cc the CIA into our emails anyway. After all policy is never set based on what they tell the President, but whatever he hears on Fox or Newsmax or will generate the most clicks on TruthSocial.
Justine Roberts: I’ve got an alternative modern-day question — which is which is your favourite AI chatbot? What do you use?
Rachel Reeves: I don’t use anything.
Justine Roberts: You don't use any? None of the LLMs?
Rachel Reeves: No.
Justine Roberts: It could really help.
Rachel Reeves: Maybe that's where I'm going wrong.
I like her better already.
It’s a hostage to fortune.
It won’t be hard to find tons of documents that have her signature on that were the product of an LLM.
Why? Because the people working for her will be using it non-stop.
Probably my somewhat flippant response is driven by backlash to my work having bought up eleventy squillion Microsoft Copilot licences and then have proceeded to badger us every day about why we're not using it, when their top suggestions of what you can use it for are...summarising an email thread or...writing an email.
Genuinely some of the advice that has been shared is to "consult Copilot before doing anything or writing any email", which sounds like total horseshit to me.
Problem seems to be that the better uses for AI are a bit more niche and still require some thought put into what and how to prompt, how to set up automated workflows (that don't break) etc - but senior managers just know that AI is 'the future' and want to see immediate and major changes, even when most of the tasks of their employees are, funnily enough, too mundane to get much use out of a mere summarising and drafting chatbot.
Who was saying there are no more bargains on eBay?
I bought an ambiguous handmade object last week. £60. Something about it intrigued me
I now have it in my hands and after some hours of research I have concluded there is a very real chance it is 4000 years old
1.5p per year! I have had investments like that!
You bought a chlorite funerary kohl vessel from the Bronze Age of the Bactria-Margiana Archaeological Complex?!
Two of us on PB! What are the chances?
You've got me wondering what the oldest human made object is that I own.
Discarded Roman oysters from the garden don't really count, and I've not kept any worked flints, so I've concluded that whatever it is, it probably isn't old enough to be interesting. This needs rectifying.
Justine Roberts: I’ve got an alternative modern-day question — which is which is your favourite AI chatbot? What do you use?
Rachel Reeves: I don’t use anything.
Justine Roberts: You don't use any? None of the LLMs?
Rachel Reeves: No.
Justine Roberts: It could really help.
Rachel Reeves: Maybe that's where I'm going wrong.
I like her better already.
It’s a hostage to fortune.
It won’t be hard to find tons of documents that have her signature on that were the product of an LLM.
Why? Because the people working for her will be using it non-stop.
Probably my somewhat flippant response is driven by backlash to my work having bought up eleventy squillion Microsoft Copilot licences and then have proceeded to badger us every day about why we're not using it, when their top suggestions of what you can use it for are...summarising an email thread or...writing an email.
Genuinely some of the advice that has been shared is to "consult Copilot before doing anything or writing any email", which sounds like total horseshit to me.
Sure.
But the problem is that no matter what you do, it creeps in.
If you ban LLMs in an office, people email themselves stuff, run it on ChatGPT and send the results back.
Given that security can’t detect people emailing the PMs stuff to Epstein, who thinks that they would notice if half the treasury is putting government policy through an American based LLM?
Oh I've no problem if other folk in my office want to use an LLM.
I'm just irritated by the senior management attitude of "we've spent lots of money on this and we're frustrated because it's not turned out to have supercharged our organisation and/or have allowed us to get rid of loads of you yet, so now we're going to badger you to use it for minor shit because 'efficiencies', rather than fixing the bigger issues we actually have"
Like all the other revolutions in technology, it requires investment in time and brains. Not a cheap one off purchase.
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
It is pretty obvious to anyone who goes on holiday or business to the EU that Brexit was folly and that the Europeans have a better life than us, except perhaps in the areas of Britain that voted Remain.
Leavers are still resentful of the failure of their precious, which becomes more obvious over time. No one likes being slapped in the face by their poor choice every time they visit.
It's not obvious at all, and I don't think they do - not a bit of it. Brexit hasn't affected my European experience at all.
You're projecting.
Im still waiting for someone to explain how if the EU was so excellent for our economy how come we have slipped down all the ranking tables since we joined ?
36 years of Tory government since Britain joined.
Britain is [mostly] the country Tories made.
But the shit years were Labour...
In the 81 years since the end of WWII, the Tories have been in government for 49 years. 60%. Britain is so happy with how the country turned out that the Tories received a record vote share at the last general election.
A record low vote share.
Might it not be worth a bit of introspection over what went wrong with Tory Britain over the decades?
The record over the bulk of that 81 years is sorting Britain out after Labour left it worse than they inherited.
When Labour is next thrown out by the voters, that record will continue.
A bit of introsepction by Labour over their broken business model might be time better spent.
TSE, a load of posters are still on or sneaking back to that undemocratic 'private' setting whereby you can't see their body of work.
Waste of time since it’s all Googleable
I actually wrote a scraper that would take all the PB comments extant and turn them into a data cube - search by all the dimensions you could wish for.
Then I thought it might upset @rcs1000 if I put a site with that on it.
Justine Roberts: I’ve got an alternative modern-day question — which is which is your favourite AI chatbot? What do you use?
Rachel Reeves: I don’t use anything.
Justine Roberts: You don't use any? None of the LLMs?
Rachel Reeves: No.
Justine Roberts: It could really help.
Rachel Reeves: Maybe that's where I'm going wrong.
I like her better already.
It’s a hostage to fortune.
It won’t be hard to find tons of documents that have her signature on that were the product of an LLM.
Why? Because the people working for her will be using it non-stop.
Probably my somewhat flippant response is driven by backlash to my work having bought up eleventy squillion Microsoft Copilot licences and then have proceeded to badger us every day about why we're not using it, when their top suggestions of what you can use it for are...summarising an email thread or...writing an email.
Genuinely some of the advice that has been shared is to "consult Copilot before doing anything or writing any email", which sounds like total horseshit to me.
Sure.
But the problem is that no matter what you do, it creeps in.
If you ban LLMs in an office, people email themselves stuff, run it on ChatGPT and send the results back.
Given that security can’t detect people emailing the PMs stuff to Epstein, who thinks that they would notice if half the treasury is putting government policy through an American based LLM?
Oh I've no problem if other folk in my office want to use an LLM.
I'm just irritated by the senior management attitude of "we've spent lots of money on this and we're frustrated because it's not turned out to have supercharged our organisation and/or have allowed us to get rid of loads of you yet, so now we're going to badger you to use it for minor shit because 'efficiencies', rather than fixing the bigger issues we actually have"
AI makes us more efficient, right? So telling everyone to 'use' Co-Pilot somehow must result in 25% efficiency or productivity gains even though we didn't know what we'd use it for, right?
Its often what is omitted not what is mentioned which is revealing.
Apparently its not the extra spending on the NHS, or the control of EU immigrants or the taking back control which wasn't delivered but some bollox fantasy from Daniel Hannan.
A person 99% of Britons have luckily never heard of.
TSE, a load of posters are still on or sneaking back to that undemocratic 'private' setting whereby you can't see their body of work.
Waste of time since it’s all Googleable
I actually wrote a scraper that would take all the PB comments extant and turn them into a data cube - search by all the dimensions you could wish for.
Then I thought it might upset @rcs1000 if I put a site with that on it.
So I didn’t.
Perhaps you might propose the mods a header where you present some results from a one time scrape of the data?
TSE, a load of posters are still on or sneaking back to that undemocratic 'private' setting whereby you can't see their body of work.
Waste of time since it’s all Googleable
I actually wrote a scraper that would take all the PB comments extant and turn them into a data cube - search by all the dimensions you could wish for.
Then I thought it might upset @rcs1000 if I put a site with that on it.
Justine Roberts: I’ve got an alternative modern-day question — which is which is your favourite AI chatbot? What do you use?
Rachel Reeves: I don’t use anything.
Justine Roberts: You don't use any? None of the LLMs?
Rachel Reeves: No.
Justine Roberts: It could really help.
Rachel Reeves: Maybe that's where I'm going wrong.
I like her better already.
It’s a hostage to fortune.
It won’t be hard to find tons of documents that have her signature on that were the product of an LLM.
Why? Because the people working for her will be using it non-stop.
Probably my somewhat flippant response is driven by backlash to my work having bought up eleventy squillion Microsoft Copilot licences and then have proceeded to badger us every day about why we're not using it, when their top suggestions of what you can use it for are...summarising an email thread or...writing an email.
Genuinely some of the advice that has been shared is to "consult Copilot before doing anything or writing any email", which sounds like total horseshit to me.
Sure.
But the problem is that no matter what you do, it creeps in.
If you ban LLMs in an office, people email themselves stuff, run it on ChatGPT and send the results back.
Given that security can’t detect people emailing the PMs stuff to Epstein, who thinks that they would notice if half the treasury is putting government policy through an American based LLM?
Oh I've no problem if other folk in my office want to use an LLM.
I'm just irritated by the senior management attitude of "we've spent lots of money on this and we're frustrated because it's not turned out to have supercharged our organisation and/or have allowed us to get rid of loads of you yet, so now we're going to badger you to use it for minor shit because 'efficiencies', rather than fixing the bigger issues we actually have"
Also reminds me of reports of all the people working on the Metaverse for Zuckerberg (an idea a child could have told him was never going to work) - tens of billions spent, and supposedly one of the top people had to message the various teams building it to ask why none of them actually used the bloody thing.
Justine Roberts: I’ve got an alternative modern-day question — which is which is your favourite AI chatbot? What do you use?
Rachel Reeves: I don’t use anything.
Justine Roberts: You don't use any? None of the LLMs?
Rachel Reeves: No.
Justine Roberts: It could really help.
Rachel Reeves: Maybe that's where I'm going wrong.
I like her better already.
It’s a hostage to fortune.
It won’t be hard to find tons of documents that have her signature on that were the product of an LLM.
Why? Because the people working for her will be using it non-stop.
Probably my somewhat flippant response is driven by backlash to my work having bought up eleventy squillion Microsoft Copilot licences and then have proceeded to badger us every day about why we're not using it, when their top suggestions of what you can use it for are...summarising an email thread or...writing an email.
Genuinely some of the advice that has been shared is to "consult Copilot before doing anything or writing any email", which sounds like total horseshit to me.
That sounds like a need for a windup by about 2 dozen people or more.
Can't you all ask it for recipes on how to make lots of different kinds of chutney? Or how to deal with STDs?
Justine Roberts: I’ve got an alternative modern-day question — which is which is your favourite AI chatbot? What do you use?
Rachel Reeves: I don’t use anything.
Justine Roberts: You don't use any? None of the LLMs?
Rachel Reeves: No.
Justine Roberts: It could really help.
Rachel Reeves: Maybe that's where I'm going wrong.
I like her better already.
It’s a hostage to fortune.
It won’t be hard to find tons of documents that have her signature on that were the product of an LLM.
Why? Because the people working for her will be using it non-stop.
Probably my somewhat flippant response is driven by backlash to my work having bought up eleventy squillion Microsoft Copilot licences and then have proceeded to badger us every day about why we're not using it, when their top suggestions of what you can use it for are...summarising an email thread or...writing an email.
Genuinely some of the advice that has been shared is to "consult Copilot before doing anything or writing any email", which sounds like total horseshit to me.
Sure.
But the problem is that no matter what you do, it creeps in.
If you ban LLMs in an office, people email themselves stuff, run it on ChatGPT and send the results back.
Given that security can’t detect people emailing the PMs stuff to Epstein, who thinks that they would notice if half the treasury is putting government policy through an American based LLM?
Oh I've no problem if other folk in my office want to use an LLM.
I'm just irritated by the senior management attitude of "we've spent lots of money on this and we're frustrated because it's not turned out to have supercharged our organisation and/or have allowed us to get rid of loads of you yet, so now we're going to badger you to use it for minor shit because 'efficiencies', rather than fixing the bigger issues we actually have"
Also reminds me of reports of all the people working on the Metaverse for Zuckerberg (an idea a child could have told him was never going to work) - tens of billions spent, and supposedly one of the top people had to message the various teams building it to ask why none of them actually used the bloody thing.
What passes for Intellectual MAGA seems quite cross with Zuckerburg, because Facebook has apparently reordered its business systems to comply with the EU Digital Services Act.
If this is correct it sounds like it could be good news.
US reinstated sanctions on Russian oil after letting a waiver expire, targeting revenues from firms like Rosneft and Lukoil despite concerns Moscow can still bypass restrictions.
Trump banging on this afternoon about drilling the North Sea and no more windmills.
Too stupid to see that his interventions make Lab minister less likely to do any changes as he is in favour.
Let's hope he comes over to campaign for Farage in the May elections.
If I could wave a magic wand and make it happen I would absolutely love to see this stone-cold moron interviewed by someone like Paxman and made to explain his mad views about pretty much everything.
As I remember Bob Smithson is an admirer of this inward looking Little American:
Amid historic jumps in gas prices triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran, the California congressman Ro Khanna is to introduce legislation on Tuesday that would ban the export of gasoline during price spikes.
“The country is crying out for a new energy policy,” said Khanna in an interview with the Guardian, “that doesn’t have us subject to the whims of the profits of big oil companies.”
The Iran war has sparked the largest-ever disruption to fuel supply, according to the International Energy Agency, with crude costs topping $100 a barrel so far this week. That has in turn caused the price of gasoline – for which crude is the main input – to rise dramatically, with Americans paying more than $4 a gallon at the pump.
Keeping domestic gasoline supplies at home, Khanna said, could lower the cost of gas for US consumers. During any period when national gas prices average $3.12 a gallon or higher, his proposed legislation would stop US shipments of refined gasoline to other countries.
Local election leaflets for the Newsome & Netherton, Kirklees ward all ups stand at Greens, one leaflet covering all the Huddersfield wards being targeted and one ward specific leaflet, Reform, one national level mailshot. We get a Labour Rose more often than not, but I'm wondering if we may not this time.
We also have a lamppost postering by-law, so I did my first poster count on a drive that took in Dalton, Crosland Moor and Holme Valley North today, occupied lampposts came in at 9 Labour, 6 Independent and 1 Green. I expect those numbers to fluctuate between now and polling day.
TSE, a load of posters are still on or sneaking back to that undemocratic 'private' setting whereby you can't see their body of work.
Waste of time since it’s all Googleable
I actually wrote a scraper that would take all the PB comments extant and turn them into a data cube - search by all the dimensions you could wish for.
Then I thought it might upset @rcs1000 if I put a site with that on it.
TSE, a load of posters are still on or sneaking back to that undemocratic 'private' setting whereby you can't see their body of work.
Waste of time since it’s all Googleable
I actually wrote a scraper that would take all the PB comments extant and turn them into a data cube - search by all the dimensions you could wish for.
Then I thought it might upset @rcs1000 if I put a site with that on it.
So I didn’t.
Good decision. Most of us have probably posted a lot of silly comments over the years that we'd rather not be reminded of!
TSE, a load of posters are still on or sneaking back to that undemocratic 'private' setting whereby you can't see their body of work.
Waste of time since it’s all Googleable
I actually wrote a scraper that would take all the PB comments extant and turn them into a data cube - search by all the dimensions you could wish for.
Then I thought it might upset @rcs1000 if I put a site with that on it.
So I didn’t.
What language is it written in?
Java
Ouch. Can it be translated into (say) R and still work?
Its often what is omitted not what is mentioned which is revealing.
Apparently its not the extra spending on the NHS, or the control of EU immigrants or the taking back control which wasn't delivered but some bollox fantasy from Daniel Hannan.
A person 99% of Britons have luckily never heard of.
He does mention taking back control, only bit he's close to reality on... That the UK would follow EU regs anyway because they're recognised.
I think Labour being ahead on most seats is probably the most likely outcome of the next GE right now.
For once casino, we are in full agreement.
Labour back up to 30% ish by GE imho
The Green surge may be real, but it's very sudden even though they've been about for decades. Despite the impressive impact from Polanski they are no different than they were 2 years ago.
So i'd be concerned with their staying power and how firm switchers are.
Their policy on open boarders and drugs kills them stone dead.
It is Corbyn all over again. Popular until the policies actually have a real chance.
Make yer mind up, I thought it was their policy on NATO that was going to scupper them at some unspecified point in the future (insofar as NATO will last until some unspecified point in the future)
As I remember Bob Smithson is an admirer of this inward looking Little American:
Amid historic jumps in gas prices triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran, the California congressman Ro Khanna is to introduce legislation on Tuesday that would ban the export of gasoline during price spikes.
“The country is crying out for a new energy policy,” said Khanna in an interview with the Guardian, “that doesn’t have us subject to the whims of the profits of big oil companies.”
The Iran war has sparked the largest-ever disruption to fuel supply, according to the International Energy Agency, with crude costs topping $100 a barrel so far this week. That has in turn caused the price of gasoline – for which crude is the main input – to rise dramatically, with Americans paying more than $4 a gallon at the pump.
Keeping domestic gasoline supplies at home, Khanna said, could lower the cost of gas for US consumers. During any period when national gas prices average $3.12 a gallon or higher, his proposed legislation would stop US shipments of refined gasoline to other countries.
TSE, a load of posters are still on or sneaking back to that undemocratic 'private' setting whereby you can't see their body of work.
Waste of time since it’s all Googleable
I actually wrote a scraper that would take all the PB comments extant and turn them into a data cube - search by all the dimensions you could wish for.
Then I thought it might upset @rcs1000 if I put a site with that on it.
So I didn’t.
What language is it written in?
Java
Ouch. Can it be translated into (say) R and still work?
Not going to use it.
It’s fairly trivial for someone else to write, if they really want.
I think Labour being ahead on most seats is probably the most likely outcome of the next GE right now.
For once casino, we are in full agreement.
Labour back up to 30% ish by GE imho
The Green surge may be real, but it's very sudden even though they've been about for decades. Despite the impressive impact from Polanski they are no different than they were 2 years ago.
So i'd be concerned with their staying power and how firm switchers are.
Their policy on open boarders and drugs kills them stone dead.
It is Corbyn all over again. Popular until the policies actually have a real chance.
Make yer mind up, I thought it was their policy on NATO that was going to scupper them at some unspecified point in the future (insofar as NATO will last until some unspecified point in the future)
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
It is pretty obvious to anyone who goes on holiday or business to the EU that Brexit was folly and that the Europeans have a better life than us, except perhaps in the areas of Britain that voted Remain.
Leavers are still resentful of the failure of their precious, which becomes more obvious over time. No one likes being slapped in the face by their poor choice every time they visit.
It's not obvious at all, and I don't think they do - not a bit of it. Brexit hasn't affected my European experience at all.
You're projecting.
Im still waiting for someone to explain how if the EU was so excellent for our economy how come we have slipped down all the ranking tables since we joined ?
36 years of Tory government since Britain joined.
Britain is [mostly] the country Tories made.
But the shit years were Labour...
In the 81 years since the end of WWII, the Tories have been in government for 49 years. 60%. Britain is so happy with how the country turned out that the Tories received a record vote share at the last general election.
A record low vote share.
Might it not be worth a bit of introspection over what went wrong with Tory Britain over the decades?
The record over the bulk of that 81 years is sorting Britain out after Labour left it worse than they inherited.
When Labour is next thrown out by the voters, that record will continue.
A bit of introsepction by Labour over their broken business model might be time better spent.
In your view then, there's a clear cycle in politics.
1) Conservatives get into power to sort out the mess made by previous Labour Government. 2) Conservatives spend next 10-15 years resolving mess. 3) Believing they will never lose, Conservatives start being silly and people turn on them. 4) Having forgotten how bad Labour were and seeing how bad the Conservatives are, the electorate votes the Conservatives out and Labour in. 5) Labour wins on a promise of sorting out the mess laft by the Conservatives. 6) Labour make matters worse, 7) After a 5-10 year nightmare of disaster and chaos, people remember how much better life was under the Conservatives and vote them back in. 8) Go back to 1) and repeat.
We've been round this loop two or three times, no wonder the electorate are sick of it.
Local election leaflets for the Newsome & Netherton, Kirklees ward all ups stand at Greens, one leaflet covering all the Huddersfield wards being targeted and one ward specific leaflet, Reform, one national level mailshot. We get a Labour Rose more often than not, but I'm wondering if we may not this time.
We also have a lamppost postering by-law, so I did my first poster count on a drive that took in Dalton, Crosland Moor and Holme Valley North today, occupied lampposts came in at 9 Labour, 6 Independent and 1 Green. I expect those numbers to fluctuate between now and polling day.
2 posters in the next street. Both Green. Concerning as this is a LD ward. Don't want Reform sneaking home.
This whole thread is ridiculous, it's not going to happen, for a trillion reasons (which I have spelt out before). This is not a partisan point, just practical
But here is one to be going on with
Why would any British government call something as epochal and dangerous as an EU Rejoin referendum? We all know, and politicans all know, what happened to David Cameron
You would only call it if you were supremely confident of winning, due to governing really well and being really popular. The economy humming along. But then why would you take the risk? Why Rejoin, with all its grave uncertainties, if Britain and the British govt is doing well?
So that won't happen. But maybe you get desperate and the economy is fucked and it's a last throw of the dice, but that means you, the PM, will be really unpopular and the people will punish you by voting against your favoured cause, Rejoin
Lose lose
It's not going to happen. The alignment of ducks required to get us back into the EU is exceptionally unlikely. Not entirely impossible, but right out there
As I remember Bob Smithson is an admirer of this inward looking Little American:
Amid historic jumps in gas prices triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran, the California congressman Ro Khanna is to introduce legislation on Tuesday that would ban the export of gasoline during price spikes.
“The country is crying out for a new energy policy,” said Khanna in an interview with the Guardian, “that doesn’t have us subject to the whims of the profits of big oil companies.”
The Iran war has sparked the largest-ever disruption to fuel supply, according to the International Energy Agency, with crude costs topping $100 a barrel so far this week. That has in turn caused the price of gasoline – for which crude is the main input – to rise dramatically, with Americans paying more than $4 a gallon at the pump.
Keeping domestic gasoline supplies at home, Khanna said, could lower the cost of gas for US consumers. During any period when national gas prices average $3.12 a gallon or higher, his proposed legislation would stop US shipments of refined gasoline to other countries.
Not sure where we are on Iran this evening - oil prices seem to be heading down but more on rumour than an actual basis of fact. The "blockade" of the Straits of Hormuz seems to have had varied success so far - 100% according to the US military but other sources claiming ships have and are transiting.
There may be more talks between the US and the Islamic Republic in a couple of days thought why they should be any more fruitful than the negotiations in Islamabad I'm not sure.
Here in rural Derbyshire, no evidence of any disruption to petrol supplies at this time and the price has stabilised in the past few days albeit at very high levels.
Clearly no country is going to sign up to something that you can’t leave . And the EU don’t want another UK psychodrama .
The UK can’t just call another EU referendum without the EU actually agreeing to even contemplate the UK rejoining.
It would be a waste of time to call a referendum and then the EU says sorry no thanks . There has to be a very strong majority in favour in polling and the terms of re-joining laid out clearly .
Even though I’m very pro EU I think it might be better to contemplate EEA membership which comes without the CU, CFP and CAP.
There are more restrictions on FOM within that .
I think that’s more feasible and could happen more quickly .
A sensible remark. This is what Rejoiners should aim for
TSE, a load of posters are still on or sneaking back to that undemocratic 'private' setting whereby you can't see their body of work.
Waste of time since it’s all Googleable
I actually wrote a scraper that would take all the PB comments extant and turn them into a data cube - search by all the dimensions you could wish for.
Then I thought it might upset @rcs1000 if I put a site with that on it.
So I didn’t.
What language is it written in?
Java
Ouch. Can it be translated into (say) R and still work?
People pick the language they are most comfortable with - for me my go to is C# and previously Perl.
Downside with Perl is no-one else could ever read someone else’s code and after 3 months even the author had problems reading his shortcuts
Its often what is omitted not what is mentioned which is revealing.
Apparently its not the extra spending on the NHS, or the control of EU immigrants or the taking back control which wasn't delivered but some bollox fantasy from Daniel Hannan.
A person 99% of Britons have luckily never heard of.
He does mention taking back control, only bit he's close to reality on... That the UK would follow EU regs anyway because they're recognised.
You're all very angry about "winning" aren't you.
Losing can be more fun as no responsibility needs to be taken and the opportunities for mockery are always there.
Who was saying there are no more bargains on eBay?
I bought an ambiguous handmade object last week. £60. Something about it intrigued me
I now have it in my hands and after some hours of research I have concluded there is a very real chance it is 4000 years old
1.5p per year! I have had investments like that!
You bought a chlorite funerary kohl vessel from the Bronze Age of the Bactria-Margiana Archaeological Complex?!
Two of us on PB! What are the chances?
You've got me wondering what the oldest human made object is that I own.
Discarded Roman oysters from the garden don't really count, and I've not kept any worked flints, so I've concluded that whatever it is, it probably isn't old enough to be interesting. This needs rectifying.
Mine is pretty hard to beat. A human shucked oyster shell from the Dead Lakes of Willandra. So old it is mineralised. 40,000 years. And I found it myself!
The Dead L:akes of Willandra are genuinely fascinating and important, even if no one has heard of them
This whole thread is ridiculous, it's not going to happen, for a trillion reasons (which I have spelt out before). This is not a partisan point, just practical
But here is one to be going on with
Why would any British government call something as epochal and dangerous as an EU Rejoin referendum? We all know, and politicans all know, what happened to David Cameron
You would only call it if you were supremely confident of winning, due to governing really well and being really popular. The economy humming along. But then why would you take the risk? Why Rejoin, with all its grave uncertainties, if Britain and the British govt is doing well?
So that won't happen. But maybe you get desperate and the economy is fucked and it's a last throw of the dice, but that means you, the PM, will be really unpopular and the people will punish you by voting against your favoured cause, Rejoin
Lose lose
It's not going to happen. The alignment of ducks required to get us back into the EU is exceptionally unlikely. Not entirely impossible, but right out there
Yes of course it's not going to happen anytime soon but to rule it out in perpetuity would be unwise.
In any case, the first stage (which doesn't need a referendum) would be for a Government to hold initial negotiations to see on what terms an application to join could be made.
At the moment, even talking to the EU is seen by some as tantamount to treason but I suspect it happens a lot more than many suspect.
The only question worth asking is whether it would be in Britain's interests to consider joining or re-joining? To say it would now would be foolish, to say it never would would be equally foolish.
As I remember Bob Smithson is an admirer of this inward looking Little American:
Amid historic jumps in gas prices triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran, the California congressman Ro Khanna is to introduce legislation on Tuesday that would ban the export of gasoline during price spikes.
“The country is crying out for a new energy policy,” said Khanna in an interview with the Guardian, “that doesn’t have us subject to the whims of the profits of big oil companies.”
The Iran war has sparked the largest-ever disruption to fuel supply, according to the International Energy Agency, with crude costs topping $100 a barrel so far this week. That has in turn caused the price of gasoline – for which crude is the main input – to rise dramatically, with Americans paying more than $4 a gallon at the pump.
Keeping domestic gasoline supplies at home, Khanna said, could lower the cost of gas for US consumers. During any period when national gas prices average $3.12 a gallon or higher, his proposed legislation would stop US shipments of refined gasoline to other countries.
Export of oil from the US (nearly all) was banned between 1975 and 2015
Also, if I have understood RCS correctly, the US imports crude to refine and then sells the product domestically, while exporting its own crude to be refined elsewhere.
So in practical terms the only thing it would do is mean people couldn't try and buy refined products from the US, which given tanker capacity issues would not necessarily be a bad thing?
You questioned the figures in David Turver's table as follows:
He still doesn't explain what the "CFD subsidy" line item is. This all he says about it: £83/MWh or 52% of revenue coming from subsidies in April 2025. It doesn't include constraint payments as these are part of balancing costs, which are a separate line item in his table. CFD subsidies outwith the CFD strike price is not something I have heard of from anyone else slightly knowledgeable about energy generation.
A comment on the Substack thread appears to ask the same thing, and be answered by the author (apologies in advance for the micropic).
In other words, you were correct, the subsidy line was not constraint, it was the cost of subsidising providers up to the average strike price, which appears to be dramatically in excess of what you thought it was.
Makes sense. I hadn't realised the AR3 and AR4 offshore wind allocations mostly aren't online yet. When they are the average strike price should drop quite a bit
Local election leaflets for the Newsome & Netherton, Kirklees ward all ups stand at Greens, one leaflet covering all the Huddersfield wards being targeted and one ward specific leaflet, Reform, one national level mailshot. We get a Labour Rose more often than not, but I'm wondering if we may not this time.
We also have a lamppost postering by-law, so I did my first poster count on a drive that took in Dalton, Crosland Moor and Holme Valley North today, occupied lampposts came in at 9 Labour, 6 Independent and 1 Green. I expect those numbers to fluctuate between now and polling day.
It seems that some junior doctors should be on £8ph apprentice wage:
We sighed with relief - strikes act like a firebreak."
That was how one hospital boss recalled hearing news of a walkout by resident doctors in England last December.
Now that the latest doctors' strike has ended, some NHS trust leaders who have spoken to BBC News are reflecting again that the system has run more efficiently - with some saying it has been smoother than on non-strike days.
Looking back to previous walkouts they suggest that far from the predicted chaos, there were shorter patient waits, faster decisions and calmer corridors.
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
The collapse in the leave vote is heavily linked to Covid (and its economic impacts), the war in Ukraine (and its economic impacts) and the general feeling of national decline.
Imagine if Remain had won and then covid and Ukraine had happened. What would Leave be polling now?
Probably much as they are now, because an awful lot of what we've seen is the action of the Grim Reaper. Here's the Ipsos breakdown of the 2016 referendum by age:
Now roll those ages forward a decade. Leaverdom had to run very fast to stand still, and they haven't, because it hasn't been seen as a success. But a lot of what we're seeing looks like an identity thing. It's not that people have changed their minds, it's that the people have changed, and will continue to do so.
(And before anyone starts, this isn't about wishing Leave voters dead, it's just observing that death comes to us all.)
Why did so many incumbent governments get turfed out in the last four years? It wasn’t Brexit as that only applies to us. It was the economic effects of Covid and the war. It’s mad to deny this. For sure 10 years have passed and perhaps some shift can be attributed to that but I stand by my thesis that if remain had won, leave would now be ahead in the polls.
This is obviously true.
And, had we been in the EU for the last ten years, then the negative effects of Covid and the war would no doubt have been blamed on the EU. It is -whether we're in or out- the universal scapegoat. We're either hurting 'cause we're in, or we're hurting because we're out.
(When, in the real world, the EU is probably only a fairly marginal contributor -either way- to economic performance. What matters most is global events. And then luck. And then the competence of your national government.)
Local election leaflets for the Newsome & Netherton, Kirklees ward all ups stand at Greens, one leaflet covering all the Huddersfield wards being targeted and one ward specific leaflet, Reform, one national level mailshot. We get a Labour Rose more often than not, but I'm wondering if we may not this time.
We also have a lamppost postering by-law, so I did my first poster count on a drive that took in Dalton, Crosland Moor and Holme Valley North today, occupied lampposts came in at 9 Labour, 6 Independent and 1 Green. I expect those numbers to fluctuate between now and polling day.
2 posters in the next street. Both Green. Concerning as this is a LD ward. Don't want Reform sneaking home.
Isn't the LD way to surge from nowhere to win big when the mood is with them, and to collapse to nothing when it is not?
So it might be a comfortable Green win as soft LDs abandon in droves.
The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
The collapse in the leave vote is heavily linked to Covid (and its economic impacts), the war in Ukraine (and its economic impacts) and the general feeling of national decline.
Imagine if Remain had won and then covid and Ukraine had happened. What would Leave be polling now?
Probably much as they are now, because an awful lot of what we've seen is the action of the Grim Reaper. Here's the Ipsos breakdown of the 2016 referendum by age:
Now roll those ages forward a decade. Leaverdom had to run very fast to stand still, and they haven't, because it hasn't been seen as a success. But a lot of what we're seeing looks like an identity thing. It's not that people have changed their minds, it's that the people have changed, and will continue to do so.
(And before anyone starts, this isn't about wishing Leave voters dead, it's just observing that death comes to us all.)
Why did so many incumbent governments get turfed out in the last four years? It wasn’t Brexit as that only applies to us. It was the economic effects of Covid and the war. It’s mad to deny this. For sure 10 years have passed and perhaps some shift can be attributed to that but I stand by my thesis that if remain had won, leave would now be ahead in the polls.
This is obviously true.
And, had we been in the EU for the last ten years, then the negative effects of Covid and the war would no doubt have been blamed on the EU. It is -whether we're in or out- the universal scapegoat. We're either hurting 'cause we're in, or we're hurting because we're out.
(When, in the real world, the EU is probably only a fairly marginal contributor -either way- to economic performance. What matters most is global events. And then luck. And then the competence of your national government.)
As I remember Bob Smithson is an admirer of this inward looking Little American:
Amid historic jumps in gas prices triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran, the California congressman Ro Khanna is to introduce legislation on Tuesday that would ban the export of gasoline during price spikes.
“The country is crying out for a new energy policy,” said Khanna in an interview with the Guardian, “that doesn’t have us subject to the whims of the profits of big oil companies.”
The Iran war has sparked the largest-ever disruption to fuel supply, according to the International Energy Agency, with crude costs topping $100 a barrel so far this week. That has in turn caused the price of gasoline – for which crude is the main input – to rise dramatically, with Americans paying more than $4 a gallon at the pump.
Keeping domestic gasoline supplies at home, Khanna said, could lower the cost of gas for US consumers. During any period when national gas prices average $3.12 a gallon or higher, his proposed legislation would stop US shipments of refined gasoline to other countries.
Trump banging on this afternoon about drilling the North Sea and no more windmills.
Too stupid to see that his interventions make Lab minister less likely to do any changes as he is in favour.
Let's hope he comes over to campaign for Farage in the May elections.
If I could wave a magic wand and make it happen I would absolutely love to see this stone-cold moron interviewed by someone like Paxman and made to explain his mad views about pretty much everything.
Emily Maitlis did a good job with the Prince Andrew interview.
Trump banging on this afternoon about drilling the North Sea and no more windmills.
Too stupid to see that his interventions make Lab minister less likely to do any changes as he is in favour.
Let's hope he comes over to campaign for Farage in the May elections.
If I could wave a magic wand and make it happen I would absolutely love to see this stone-cold moron interviewed by someone like Paxman and made to explain his mad views about pretty much everything.
Emily Maitlis did a good job with the Prince Andrew interview.
Local election leaflets for the Newsome & Netherton, Kirklees ward all ups stand at Greens, one leaflet covering all the Huddersfield wards being targeted and one ward specific leaflet, Reform, one national level mailshot. We get a Labour Rose more often than not, but I'm wondering if we may not this time.
We also have a lamppost postering by-law, so I did my first poster count on a drive that took in Dalton, Crosland Moor and Holme Valley North today, occupied lampposts came in at 9 Labour, 6 Independent and 1 Green. I expect those numbers to fluctuate between now and polling day.
Keep up the local election updates everyone!
No idea whether this is any indicator about upcoming locals, but I went through part of Exeter last week and was surprised to see a lot of lamppost flags. I thought Exeter was Labour.
It seems that some junior doctors should be on £8ph apprentice wage:
We sighed with relief - strikes act like a firebreak."
That was how one hospital boss recalled hearing news of a walkout by resident doctors in England last December.
Now that the latest doctors' strike has ended, some NHS trust leaders who have spoken to BBC News are reflecting again that the system has run more efficiently - with some saying it has been smoother than on non-strike days.
Looking back to previous walkouts they suggest that far from the predicted chaos, there were shorter patient waits, faster decisions and calmer corridors.
Yes, that is the case for the previous strikes too. Hospital deaths go down too. In part this is because of cancellation of planned activity and in part because senior decision makers (like yours truly) replace the interns normally seeing the Great British Public.
It just shows what can be done by throwing money at the problem.
It seems that some junior doctors should be on £8ph apprentice wage:
We sighed with relief - strikes act like a firebreak."
That was how one hospital boss recalled hearing news of a walkout by resident doctors in England last December.
Now that the latest doctors' strike has ended, some NHS trust leaders who have spoken to BBC News are reflecting again that the system has run more efficiently - with some saying it has been smoother than on non-strike days.
Looking back to previous walkouts they suggest that far from the predicted chaos, there were shorter patient waits, faster decisions and calmer corridors.
As I remember Bob Smithson is an admirer of this inward looking Little American:
Amid historic jumps in gas prices triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran, the California congressman Ro Khanna is to introduce legislation on Tuesday that would ban the export of gasoline during price spikes.
“The country is crying out for a new energy policy,” said Khanna in an interview with the Guardian, “that doesn’t have us subject to the whims of the profits of big oil companies.”
The Iran war has sparked the largest-ever disruption to fuel supply, according to the International Energy Agency, with crude costs topping $100 a barrel so far this week. That has in turn caused the price of gasoline – for which crude is the main input – to rise dramatically, with Americans paying more than $4 a gallon at the pump.
Keeping domestic gasoline supplies at home, Khanna said, could lower the cost of gas for US consumers. During any period when national gas prices average $3.12 a gallon or higher, his proposed legislation would stop US shipments of refined gasoline to other countries.
This whole thread is ridiculous, it's not going to happen, for a trillion reasons (which I have spelt out before). This is not a partisan point, just practical
But here is one to be going on with
Why would any British government call something as epochal and dangerous as an EU Rejoin referendum? We all know, and politicans all know, what happened to David Cameron
You would only call it if you were supremely confident of winning, due to governing really well and being really popular. The economy humming along. But then why would you take the risk? Why Rejoin, with all its grave uncertainties, if Britain and the British govt is doing well?
So that won't happen. But maybe you get desperate and the economy is fucked and it's a last throw of the dice, but that means you, the PM, will be really unpopular and the people will punish you by voting against your favoured cause, Rejoin
Lose lose
It's not going to happen. The alignment of ducks required to get us back into the EU is exceptionally unlikely. Not entirely impossible, but right out there
Yes of course it's not going to happen anytime soon but to rule it out in perpetuity would be unwise.
In any case, the first stage (which doesn't need a referendum) would be for a Government to hold initial negotiations to see on what terms an application to join could be made.
At the moment, even talking to the EU is seen by some as tantamount to treason but I suspect it happens a lot more than many suspect.
The only question worth asking is whether it would be in Britain's interests to consider joining or re-joining? To say it would now would be foolish, to say it never would would be equally foolish.
Yes I agree, Never Say Never
But I would put the chances of a Rejoin referendum happening in the next decade at less than two percent, beyond that is Fantasy Island, as weather geeks have it (ie: who the F knows)
As I remember Bob Smithson is an admirer of this inward looking Little American:
Amid historic jumps in gas prices triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran, the California congressman Ro Khanna is to introduce legislation on Tuesday that would ban the export of gasoline during price spikes.
“The country is crying out for a new energy policy,” said Khanna in an interview with the Guardian, “that doesn’t have us subject to the whims of the profits of big oil companies.”
The Iran war has sparked the largest-ever disruption to fuel supply, according to the International Energy Agency, with crude costs topping $100 a barrel so far this week. That has in turn caused the price of gasoline – for which crude is the main input – to rise dramatically, with Americans paying more than $4 a gallon at the pump.
Keeping domestic gasoline supplies at home, Khanna said, could lower the cost of gas for US consumers. During any period when national gas prices average $3.12 a gallon or higher, his proposed legislation would stop US shipments of refined gasoline to other countries.
Export of oil from the US (nearly all) was banned between 1975 and 2015
You mean when the USA was an oil IMPORTER.
The USA is now an oil EXPORTER.
Now if you ban oil exports and put restrictions on domestic prices can you guess what will happen to US oil production ?
Not to mention different types of oil with some being imported while others are exported.
The US is a massive oil importer.
It's just an even more massive oil exporter.
It imports heavy crude from Canada. And it exports light crude and NGLs from the Permian basin.
And if that oil exporting is stopped then either:
Consumption of that oil within the USA has to increase Production of that oil has to decrease There has to be a massive increase in stocks
It would be monumentally stupid to stop export of that oil, because the US Gulf Coast refining complex is not setup to process it. It would simultaneously discourage production, and probably raise US prices.
Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 3h I know we're all looking at oil.
But live cattle just rose above $2.5 per lb for the first time (to an all-time high). The BBQ season in America is going to be rather expensive for flipping burgers.
If you have a cow now you can sell it for a high price. Or you can get her pregnant and hope that prices in the future are going to be as high. That’s a heck of a bet for farmer to take… result is that the number of starts is declining… which will cause higher prices in future…
Who was saying there are no more bargains on eBay?
I bought an ambiguous handmade object last week. £60. Something about it intrigued me
I now have it in my hands and after some hours of research I have concluded there is a very real chance it is 4000 years old
1.5p per year! I have had investments like that!
You bought a chlorite funerary kohl vessel from the Bronze Age of the Bactria-Margiana Archaeological Complex?!
Two of us on PB! What are the chances?
You've got me wondering what the oldest human made object is that I own.
Discarded Roman oysters from the garden don't really count, and I've not kept any worked flints, so I've concluded that whatever it is, it probably isn't old enough to be interesting. This needs rectifying.
Mine is pretty hard to beat. A human shucked oyster shell from the Dead Lakes of Willandra. So old it is mineralised. 40,000 years. And I found it myself!
The Dead L:akes of Willandra are genuinely fascinating and important, even if no one has heard of them
Who was saying there are no more bargains on eBay?
I bought an ambiguous handmade object last week. £60. Something about it intrigued me
I now have it in my hands and after some hours of research I have concluded there is a very real chance it is 4000 years old
1.5p per year! I have had investments like that!
You bought a chlorite funerary kohl vessel from the Bronze Age of the Bactria-Margiana Archaeological Complex?!
Two of us on PB! What are the chances?
You've got me wondering what the oldest human made object is that I own.
Discarded Roman oysters from the garden don't really count, and I've not kept any worked flints, so I've concluded that whatever it is, it probably isn't old enough to be interesting. This needs rectifying.
Mine is pretty hard to beat. A human shucked oyster shell from the Dead Lakes of Willandra. So old it is mineralised. 40,000 years. And I found it myself!
The Dead L:akes of Willandra are genuinely fascinating and important, even if no one has heard of them
I get the appeal of the human factor but I get a kick from my fossil collection, including the rather fine specimen that is my current avatar. Any one able to name the species?
Consecutive threads on Brexit today, I know how to spoil PBers.
*spoil PB.
I promise no more Brexit threads this month unless something major happen or if there's a truly interesting Brexit poll.
You probably know I'm only messing, I'm basically very happy that someone is willing to put in the effort to originate and shepherd discussions on any current topic
Endorse this comment. I don't how you keep producing threads day after day getting engagement across the political spectrum. Truly wonderful.
It's fun.
For the last 26 years professionally I have to write stuff for wider dissemination, I use that skillset.
To be honest, it's very easy to write threads.
A good thread is like a skirt, long enough to cover the important bits but short enough to grab your attention.
Local election leaflets for the Newsome & Netherton, Kirklees ward all ups stand at Greens, one leaflet covering all the Huddersfield wards being targeted and one ward specific leaflet, Reform, one national level mailshot. We get a Labour Rose more often than not, but I'm wondering if we may not this time.
We also have a lamppost postering by-law, so I did my first poster count on a drive that took in Dalton, Crosland Moor and Holme Valley North today, occupied lampposts came in at 9 Labour, 6 Independent and 1 Green. I expect those numbers to fluctuate between now and polling day.
Keep up the local election updates everyone!
I have heard ..... zilch from anyone.
But I did see a crocodile of primary school children walking down my lane to the library this morning.
Which will be added to my ammunition for getting a rat-runner filter added to my lane (which has been there for the last 50 years anyway), but requires something to make it effective like a row of bollards.
Comments
As to EU and referenda, SFAICS the only serious option would be to agree everything with the EU for re-entry and the whole package to be put to a referendum at that point. Otherwise the 'pig in a poke' problem is inevitable.
The problem with that is that a referendum where you actually knew the grisly details of the deal and not just metaphysical hand waving (Euro, Schengen, rule taking, FoM, ever closer union, cost) would be hard to win.
Sir Keir sticks around until 2028, Burnham becomes an MP then, runs for leader, wins easily.
Election late 2028 or 2029.
It is Corbyn all over again. Popular until the policies actually have a real chance.
Britain is [mostly] the country Tories made.
The Government has closed 11 more asylum hotels as more migrants move to military barracks
- Banbury House Hotel
- Marine Court Hotel
- 15 Citrus Hotel
- Holiday Inn Heathrow
- Britannia Hotel
- Madeley Court Hotel
- OYO Lakeside
- Crewe Arms Hotel
- Sure Hotel by Best Western
- The Rock Hotel
- Wool Merchant Hotel
Or something like that...
I like her better already.
Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
·
3h
I know we're all looking at oil.
But live cattle just rose above $2.5 per lb for the first time (to an all-time high). The BBQ season in America is going to be rather expensive for flipping burgers.
https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2044069578615992645
A record low vote share.
Might it not be worth a bit of introspection over what went wrong with Tory Britain over the decades?
It won’t be hard to find tons of documents that have her signature on that were the product of an LLM.
Why? Because the people working for her will be using it non-stop.
However, IMO even so the government in 2016 should have made clear what its intentions were in some detail if we left and published a document outlining its 5-10 year plan for a Brexit world.
I bought an ambiguous handmade object last week. £60. Something about it intrigued me
I now have it in my hands and after some hours of research I have concluded there is a very real chance it is 4000 years old
Genuinely some of the advice that has been shared is to "consult Copilot before doing anything or writing any email", which sounds like total horseshit to me.
You questioned the figures in David Turver's table as follows:
A comment on the Substack thread appears to ask the same thing, and be answered by the author (apologies in advance for the micropic).
In other words, you were correct, the subsidy line was not constraint, it was the cost of subsidising providers up to the average strike price, which appears to be dramatically in excess of what you thought it was.
Two of us on PB! What are the chances?
But the problem is that no matter what you do, it creeps in.
If you ban LLMs in an office, people email themselves stuff, run it on ChatGPT and send the results back.
Given that security can’t detect people emailing the PMs stuff to Epstein, who thinks that they would notice if half the treasury is putting government policy through an American based LLM?
I'm just irritated by the senior management attitude of "we've spent lots of money on this and we're frustrated because it's not turned out to have supercharged our organisation and/or have allowed us to get rid of loads of you yet, so now we're going to badger you to use it for minor shit because 'efficiencies', rather than fixing the bigger issues we actually have"
Discarded Roman oysters from the garden don't really count, and I've not kept any worked flints, so I've concluded that whatever it is, it probably isn't old enough to be interesting. This needs rectifying.
When Labour is next thrown out by the voters, that record will continue.
A bit of introsepction by Labour over their broken business model might be time better spent.
I actually wrote a scraper that would take all the PB comments extant and turn them into a data cube - search by all the dimensions you could wish for.
Then I thought it might upset @rcs1000 if I put a site with that on it.
So I didn’t.
Apparently its not the extra spending on the NHS, or the control of EU immigrants or the taking back control which wasn't delivered but some bollox fantasy from Daniel Hannan.
A person 99% of Britons have luckily never heard of.
Can't you all ask it for recipes on how to make lots of different kinds of chutney? Or how to deal with STDs?
Except our comments are better.
US reinstated sanctions on Russian oil after letting a waiver expire, targeting revenues from firms like Rosneft and Lukoil despite concerns Moscow can still bypass restrictions.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/2044133004675633574?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
Amid historic jumps in gas prices triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran, the California congressman Ro Khanna is to introduce legislation on Tuesday that would ban the export of gasoline during price spikes.
“The country is crying out for a new energy policy,” said Khanna in an interview with the Guardian, “that doesn’t have us subject to the whims of the profits of big oil companies.”
The Iran war has sparked the largest-ever disruption to fuel supply, according to the International Energy Agency, with crude costs topping $100 a barrel so far this week. That has in turn caused the price of gasoline – for which crude is the main input – to rise dramatically, with Americans paying more than $4 a gallon at the pump.
Keeping domestic gasoline supplies at home, Khanna said, could lower the cost of gas for US consumers. During any period when national gas prices average $3.12 a gallon or higher, his proposed legislation would stop US shipments of refined gasoline to other countries.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/14/ro-khanna-bill-stop-gas-exports-iran-war
Even Trump has not reached this level of idiocy.
We also have a lamppost postering by-law, so I did my first poster count on a drive that took in Dalton, Crosland Moor and Holme Valley North today, occupied lampposts came in at 9 Labour, 6 Independent and 1 Green. I expect those numbers to fluctuate between now and polling day.
You're all very angry about "winning" aren't you.
It’s fairly trivial for someone else to write, if they really want.
1) Conservatives get into power to sort out the mess made by previous Labour Government.
2) Conservatives spend next 10-15 years resolving mess.
3) Believing they will never lose, Conservatives start being silly and people turn on them.
4) Having forgotten how bad Labour were and seeing how bad the Conservatives are, the electorate votes the Conservatives out and Labour in.
5) Labour wins on a promise of sorting out the mess laft by the Conservatives.
6) Labour make matters worse,
7) After a 5-10 year nightmare of disaster and chaos, people remember how much better life was under the Conservatives and vote them back in.
8) Go back to 1) and repeat.
We've been round this loop two or three times, no wonder the electorate are sick of it.
Concerning as this is a LD ward. Don't want Reform sneaking home.
But here is one to be going on with
Why would any British government call something as epochal and dangerous as an EU Rejoin referendum? We all know, and politicans all know, what happened to David Cameron
You would only call it if you were supremely confident of winning, due to governing really well and being really popular. The economy humming along. But then why would you take the risk? Why Rejoin, with all its grave uncertainties, if Britain and the British govt is doing well?
So that won't happen. But maybe you get desperate and the economy is fucked and it's a last throw of the dice, but that means you, the PM, will be really unpopular and the people will punish you by voting against your favoured cause, Rejoin
Lose lose
It's not going to happen. The alignment of ducks required to get us back into the EU is exceptionally unlikely. Not entirely impossible, but right out there
The USA is now an oil EXPORTER.
Now if you ban oil exports and put restrictions on domestic prices can you guess what will happen to US oil production ?
Not to mention different types of oil with some being imported while others are exported.
Not sure where we are on Iran this evening - oil prices seem to be heading down but more on rumour than an actual basis of fact. The "blockade" of the Straits of Hormuz seems to have had varied success so far - 100% according to the US military but other sources claiming ships have and are transiting.
There may be more talks between the US and the Islamic Republic in a couple of days thought why they should be any more fruitful than the negotiations in Islamabad I'm not sure.
Here in rural Derbyshire, no evidence of any disruption to petrol supplies at this time and the price has stabilised in the past few days albeit at very high levels.
(via Larry the Cat)
https://londongardenstrust.org/whatson/london-open-gardens-2026/10downingstreet/
Downside with Perl is no-one else could ever read someone else’s code and after 3 months even the author had problems reading his shortcuts
The Dead L:akes of Willandra are genuinely fascinating and important, even if no one has heard of them
https://spectator.com/article/australians-are-destroying-our-ancient-past/
In any case, the first stage (which doesn't need a referendum) would be for a Government to hold initial negotiations to see on what terms an application to join could be made.
At the moment, even talking to the EU is seen by some as tantamount to treason but I suspect it happens a lot more than many suspect.
The only question worth asking is whether it would be in Britain's interests to consider joining or re-joining? To say it would now would be foolish, to say it never would would be equally foolish.
So in practical terms the only thing it would do is mean people couldn't try and buy refined products from the US, which given tanker capacity issues would not necessarily be a bad thing?
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9871/CBP-9871.pdf#page=12
We sighed with relief - strikes act like a firebreak."
That was how one hospital boss recalled hearing news of a walkout by resident doctors in England last December.
Now that the latest doctors' strike has ended, some NHS trust leaders who have spoken to BBC News are reflecting again that the system has run more efficiently - with some saying it has been smoother than on non-strike days.
Looking back to previous walkouts they suggest that far from the predicted chaos, there were shorter patient waits, faster decisions and calmer corridors.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp3l2pygnlyo
And, had we been in the EU for the last ten years, then the negative effects of Covid and the war would no doubt have been blamed on the EU. It is -whether we're in or out- the universal scapegoat. We're either hurting 'cause we're in, or we're hurting because we're out.
(When, in the real world, the EU is probably only a fairly marginal contributor -either way- to economic performance. What matters most is global events. And then luck. And then the competence of your national government.)
So it might be a comfortable Green win as soft LDs abandon in droves.
It's just an even more massive oil exporter.
It imports heavy crude from Canada. And it exports light crude and NGLs from the Permian basin.
It just shows what can be done by throwing money at the problem.
So unless I get jelliified and shrunk like the slain Cuban Praetorian Guard around Madaro, no
Consumption of that oil within the USA has to increase
Production of that oil has to decrease
There has to be a massive increase in stocks
But I would put the chances of a Rejoin referendum happening in the next decade at less than two percent, beyond that is Fantasy Island, as weather geeks have it (ie: who the F knows)
So, we're fucked, aren't we?
If you have a cow now you can sell it for a high price. Or you can get her pregnant and hope that prices in the future are going to be as high. That’s a heck of a bet for farmer to take… result is that the number of starts is declining… which will cause higher prices in future…
But I did see a crocodile of primary school children walking down my lane to the library this morning.
Which will be added to my ammunition for getting a rat-runner filter added to my lane (which has been there for the last 50 years anyway), but requires something to make it effective like a row of bollards.