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Over half of Brits wants another EU referendum within the next five years – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,177
edited April 14 in General
Over half of Brits wants another EU referendum within the next five years – politicalbetting.com

?With EU relations and alignment back in the news most Brits say, across a series of areas, they want at least a slightly closer relationship with Europe than the one Britain has at the moment.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 33,928
    Got to ask how much of this is because of the complexity of getting through European border control
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,893
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Consecutive threads on Brexit today, I know how to spoil PBers.

    I was expecting the new thread to feature the milk poll.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    eek said:

    Got to ask how much of this is because of the complexity of getting through European border control

    Ease of travel doesn't stand out as particularly important on that polling. I suspect it is mostly feelz, just like leave was.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Consecutive threads on Brexit today, I know how to spoil PBers.

    I was expecting the new thread to feature the milk poll.
    The tories snatched that away a long, long time ago.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,519
    edited April 14
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2044061036643221807

    image

    His opposition to wind farms is honestly baffling (he's got a point on the oil) but then you oppose wind turbines anyway for some reason, "William Glenn The Third"
    Well, yes.

    The UK North Sea has been horrendously mismanaged. And even if we completely changed course now, a lot of the damage has already have been done. (Not to mention the fact that most large oil and gas companies trust the UK governments promises about as much as... well... I'm not even sure I can think of an analogy.)

    But offshore wind is *fine*. It's not amazing, but it's a lot less expensive than it used to be. (And it's certainly cheaper, faster to market, -and probably will have better uptime- than Hinkley Point C.)

    It's also good to have a mix of generating sources in case, you know, the price of natural gas were to go through the roof for some reason.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,893
    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2044061036643221807

    image

    His opposition to wind farms is honestly baffling (he's got a point on the oil) but then you oppose wind turbines anyway for some reason, "William Glenn The Third"
    Well, yes.

    The UK North Sea has been horrendously mismanaged. And even if we completely changed course now, a lot of the damage would already have been done. (Not to mention the fact that most large oil and gas companies trust the UK governments promises about as much as... well... I'm not even sure I can think of an analogy.)

    But offshore wind is *fine*. It's not amazing, but it's a lot less expensive than it used to be. (And it's certainly cheaper, faster to market, -and probably will have better uptime- than Hinkley Point C.)

    It's also good to have a mix of generating sources in case, you know, the price of natural gas were to go through the roof for some reason.
    In an alternative timeline where Scotland voted for independence in 2014, their leader might be at risk of being Maduroed by Trump.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,519
    On topic, I certainly support closer ties with the EU (and EU and EEA and Swiss national governments) regarding defence.

    For some reason, this has become a bigger issue in the lasty year and a half.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,758
    There are 2 types of mistakes in life. Ones you can correct and ones you have to live with. It's as yet unclear which category Brexit falls into.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,226
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Consecutive threads on Brexit today, I know how to spoil PBers.

    Thats another of those words with more than one meaning! Spoil - to treat someone well or spoil - to decompose...
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,327
    edited April 14
    The interesting figure is the wanting much closer relations in terms of trade at 39% but only 18% want much closer alignment with EU rules and laws .

    So not accepting you can’t really have one without the other .
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,210
    kinabalu said:

    There are 2 types of mistakes in life. Ones you can correct and ones you have to live with. It's as yet unclear which category Brexit falls into.

    Or one you can ameliorate

    Closer friendly ties but not full rejoin
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,838
    kinabalu said:

    There are 2 types of mistakes in life. Ones you can correct and ones you have to live with. It's as yet unclear which category Brexit falls into.

    It would be far better if no one had ever thought of Brexit. Sadly some gurning goon in tweeds did think of it.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,889
    noneoftheabove said:

    eek said:

    Got to ask how much of this is because of the complexity of getting through European border control

    Ease of travel doesn't stand out as particularly important on that polling. I suspect it is mostly feelz, just like leave was.
    The tipping point for Leave-Remain in 2016 was being born in about 1970, wasn't it? Which is also the rough tipping point for "a rejoin referendum soon, please" now.

    It may be coincidence, but that does seem to correlate to "nostalgia for my youth" as a driving force on both sides. Which makes a fair bit of emotional sense, and has certain implications for the future.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,758
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kinabalu said:

    There are 2 types of mistakes in life. Ones you can correct and ones you have to live with. It's as yet unclear which category Brexit falls into.

    Or one you can ameliorate

    Closer friendly ties but not full rejoin
    That's in 'live with' territory.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,238
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Consecutive threads on Brexit today, I know how to spoil PBers.

    Got any Ferrero Roche, Mr Ambassador ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,238
    Just seen Lord Rooker crop up on Twitter talking about women’s rights.

    Got to say, what a lovely accent. It’s great to hear.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,838
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kinabalu said:

    There are 2 types of mistakes in life. Ones you can correct and ones you have to live with. It's as yet unclear which category Brexit falls into.

    Or one you can ameliorate

    Closer friendly ties but not full rejoin
    No point at present, certainly until brave Sir Nigel has been put back in his box. No hokey cokey associate membership thank you.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 8,928
    Let’s hope whoever is in power, if a rejoin referendum is called, learns from Cameron’s error and sits down with the EU to discuss what the terms of rejoining would be - would it be back to the status quo ante before Brexit or would we have to accept the whole shebang of Schengen, Euro, no rebate etc.

    Would allow the voters to maybe have an idea what they are choosing this time.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,238
    noneoftheabove said:

    eek said:

    Got to ask how much of this is because of the complexity of getting through European border control

    Ease of travel doesn't stand out as particularly important on that polling. I suspect it is mostly feelz, just like leave was.
    Realistically how many people does it really affect. Gary and Denise taking little Kade and Lola on holiday once a year probably wouldn’t even register as an issue with them
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,440
    nico67 said:

    The interesting figure is the wanting much closer relations in terms of trade at 39% but only 18% want much closer alignment with EU rules and laws .

    So not accepting you can’t really have one without the other .

    The figure I don't really trust is on the people moving to 'other countries' one. I think you may get a different answer if the question was framed as people moving 'to the UK'.

    Leavers have never questioned their right to retire to Spain, but the other way round......
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    Stuartinromford said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    eek said:

    Got to ask how much of this is because of the complexity of getting through European border control

    Ease of travel doesn't stand out as particularly important on that polling. I suspect it is mostly feelz, just like leave was.
    The tipping point for Leave-Remain in 2016 was being born in about 1970, wasn't it? Which is also the rough tipping point for "a rejoin referendum soon, please" now.

    It may be coincidence, but that does seem to correlate to "nostalgia for my youth" as a driving force on both sides. Which makes a fair bit of emotional sense, and has certain implications for the future.
    As we saw on the earlier thread it is very easy to believe things like the economic argument either way and there is safety in numbers and plenty of "evidence" on both sides. Most people don't pay much attention and of those that do, a lot don't understand it anyway, so imo it is 80% emotional attachment and 20% logical reasoning that drives the polling.

    There is a grass is always greener element too, so if we went back in, after a few years polling would swing against again.....

    If democracy is the least bad form of government it is still not particularly good.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,889
    edited April 14
    nico67 said:

    The interesting figure is the wanting much closer relations in terms of trade at 39% but only 18% want much closer alignment with EU rules and laws .

    So not accepting you can’t really have one without the other .

    "No downisde, only considerable upside" as someone once said.

    And that generalises. What we all want is brilliant stuff that we don't have to pay for. Decent roads, strong defence, good healthcare, reliable pensions... and low taxes. And yes, there are efficiency gains to gradually grind out, and we should look for them and enact them.

    But Wilkins Micawber was right about the need to balance income and expenditure. And we have spent decades (and this includes anyone whose voting record goes Thatcher-Major-Blair-Cameron) voting for governments that have worked on the basis of Micawber's other catchphrase. And things have stopped turning up.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,238
    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kinabalu said:

    There are 2 types of mistakes in life. Ones you can correct and ones you have to live with. It's as yet unclear which category Brexit falls into.

    Or one you can ameliorate

    Closer friendly ties but not full rejoin
    No point at present, certainly until brave Sir Nigel has been put back in his box. No hokey cokey associate membership thank you.
    He’s doing some shit with Crapto now which has, amazingly, triggered the Lib Dims.

    Grifters gonna grift

    Twisters gonna twist.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 649
    I don't want another Brexit Referendum. I just want a corageous Government to take the responsibility, give some leadership and just Rejoin the EU at the earliest opportunity. There should never have been a referendum last time.

    The other thing about Brexit - it's going to get a lot worse before it gets even worse.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,450
    edited April 14
    Mrs C and I were talking to our window cleaner today, as he did some 'inside' cleaning. Pleasant young chap, in, I would say, his mid to late 20's. Uses all sorts of aids; pressure hose and the like, not just a mop and a bucket.
    Didn't ask him how he voted, but, in talking about TV programmes he said he liked programmes about the 50's and 60's 'everything seemed so much more settled then!'
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,440
    nico67 said:

    The interesting figure is the wanting much closer relations in terms of trade at 39% but only 18% want much closer alignment with EU rules and laws .

    So not accepting you can’t really have one without the other .

    Yes. That's the problem with single issue questions when issues are not single. Do you want guns? Yes. Do you want butter? Yes. But do you prioritise guns or butter? Yes. No. Don't know. Both. I'll come back to you on that one.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,199
    Taz said:

    Just seen Lord Rooker crop up on Twitter talking about women’s rights.

    Got to say, what a lovely accent. It’s great to hear.

    Yes I can never understand why people describe the Brummy accent as terrible.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,838
    Taz said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kinabalu said:

    There are 2 types of mistakes in life. Ones you can correct and ones you have to live with. It's as yet unclear which category Brexit falls into.

    Or one you can ameliorate

    Closer friendly ties but not full rejoin
    No point at present, certainly until brave Sir Nigel has been put back in his box. No hokey cokey associate membership thank you.
    He’s doing some shit with Crapto now which has, amazingly, triggered the Lib Dims.

    Grifters gonna grift

    Twisters gonna twist.
    I read that this crypto vehicle is a massive ruse so Musk will be able to legitimately buy into it in order to bankroll the first Farage Government campaign. Luvvly Jubbly!
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,794
    The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,154
    Do we have any PBers who are Reform-voting Remainers or LibDem-voting Leavers?
    "Can you remember where you live, love?" :)
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363
    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2044061036643221807

    image

    His opposition to wind farms is honestly baffling (he's got a point on the oil) but then you oppose wind turbines anyway for some reason, "William Glenn The Third"
    Well, yes.

    The UK North Sea has been horrendously mismanaged. And even if we completely changed course now, a lot of the damage has already have been done. (Not to mention the fact that most large oil and gas companies trust the UK governments promises about as much as... well... I'm not even sure I can think of an analogy.)

    But offshore wind is *fine*. It's not amazing, but it's a lot less expensive than it used to be. (And it's certainly cheaper, faster to market, -and probably will have better uptime- than Hinkley Point C.)

    It's also good to have a mix of generating sources in case, you know, the price of natural gas were to go through the roof for some reason.
    Most of the discussions coming out of this crisis are talking medium to long term fixes so this short term problem doesn’t happen again, but I was wondering what the best really short term mitigations might be.

    Almost all are on the demand destruction side: speed limits (France already seems to have acted on this), work from home mandates, business travel bans (plenty of these already), potentially a big push on retrofit insulation ahead of next winter, if its still going on then.

    On the supply side, most fixes are longer term, whether that’s more wind turbines, further electrification or more drilling. The only really short term thing I can think of is a fiscal boost to domestic and industrial rooftop solar. From past experience that could have an impact counted in months rather than years. Get those panels on those roofs as quickly as possible.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,440
    edited April 14
    OldKingCole said:

    Mrs C and I were talking to our window cleaner today, as he did some 'inside' cleaning. Pleasant young chap, in, I would say, his mid to late 20's. Uses all sorts of aids; pressure hose and the like, not just a mop and a bucket.
    Didn't ask him how he voted, but, in talking about TV programmes he said he liked programmes about the 50's and 60's 'everything seemed so much more settled then!'

    It's all here, in all its glorious subtlety. Larkin of course, who else?:

    Annus Mirabilis

    Sexual intercourse began
    In nineteen sixty-three
    (which was rather late for me) -
    Between the end of the Chatterley ban
    And the Beatles' first LP.

    Up to then there'd only been
    A sort of bargaining,
    A wrangle for the ring,
    A shame that started at sixteen
    And spread to everything.

    Then all at once the quarrel sank:
    Everyone felt the same,
    And every life became
    A brilliant breaking of the bank,
    A quite unlosable game.

    So life was never better than
    In nineteen sixty-three
    (Though just too late for me) -
    Between the end of the Chatterley ban
    And the Beatles' first LP.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 877
    Who are the 7 percent of Leave voters who thought Brexit was never going to work? Did they ask twitter bots
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,438
    Andy_JS said:

    Taz said:

    Just seen Lord Rooker crop up on Twitter talking about women’s rights.

    Got to say, what a lovely accent. It’s great to hear.

    Yes I can never understand why people describe the Brummy accent as terrible.
    It's very singggg-songggg.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,210
    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kinabalu said:

    There are 2 types of mistakes in life. Ones you can correct and ones you have to live with. It's as yet unclear which category Brexit falls into.

    Or one you can ameliorate

    Closer friendly ties but not full rejoin
    No point at present, certainly until brave Sir Nigel has been put back in his box. No hokey cokey associate membership thank you.
    If it is on offer than fine
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,257
    Dopermean said:

    Do we have any PBers who are Reform-voting Remainers or LibDem-voting Leavers?
    "Can you remember where you live, love?" :)

    RochdalePioneers was A LibDem candidate after voting Leave. History does not record if he told them about his Great Sin.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,257
    Monkeys said:

    Who are the 7 percent of Leave voters who thought Brexit was never going to work? Did they ask twitter bots

    Always Eeyores. "Horrible food. And such small portions!"
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,226
    Stark_Dawning said:

    The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?

    The collapse in the leave vote is heavily linked to Covid (and its economic impacts), the war in Ukraine (and its economic impacts) and the general feeling of national decline.

    Imagine if Remain had won and then covid and Ukraine had happened. What would Leave be polling now?
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,238
    Andy_JS said:

    Taz said:

    Just seen Lord Rooker crop up on Twitter talking about women’s rights.

    Got to say, what a lovely accent. It’s great to hear.

    Yes I can never understand why people describe the Brummy accent as terrible.
    Me neither, I think it comes from Barry in Auf Wiedersehen Pet. Although he was more Black Country.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,440
    Monkeys said:

    Who are the 7 percent of Leave voters who thought Brexit was never going to work? Did they ask twitter bots

    Perhaps they are a discerning 7% who think that leaving the EU was not a policy platform but a procedure or a framework or an identity, like the broad concept of liberalism, and that it working or not working is not meaningful. It isn't there to 'work', it can neither work nor not work. It's there to set the frame and limits within which we ask our politicians and government to work.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,705
    edited April 14
    Way offtopic, but might be of interest to some here (or their kids).

    British Airways has applications open, *for one week only*, for a cadet pilot academy scheme, a *fully-funded* air transport pilot’s licence with a very rare job for life at the end of it.

    If you were paying this yourself (to go work EasyJet or Ryanair) it would be somewhere around £250k and it’s not covered by a ‘student loan’.

    https://careers.ba.com/Speedbird-Pilot-Academy-Preparation

    Minimum age 17 on application, 18 at course start, no prior flying experience necessary (but it’s going to be very competitive, and most of the successful applicants probably will have some experience, even if it’s in gliders or air experience flights).

    Closes on 23rd April.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,514
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2044061036643221807

    image

    Not so much the real Donald Trump as a very fake Don Quixote.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,288
    edited April 14
    MelonB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2044061036643221807

    image

    His opposition to wind farms is honestly baffling (he's got a point on the oil) but then you oppose wind turbines anyway for some reason, "William Glenn The Third"
    Well, yes.

    The UK North Sea has been horrendously mismanaged. And even if we completely changed course now, a lot of the damage has already have been done. (Not to mention the fact that most large oil and gas companies trust the UK governments promises about as much as... well... I'm not even sure I can think of an analogy.)

    But offshore wind is *fine*. It's not amazing, but it's a lot less expensive than it used to be. (And it's certainly cheaper, faster to market, -and probably will have better uptime- than Hinkley Point C.)

    It's also good to have a mix of generating sources in case, you know, the price of natural gas were to go through the roof for some reason.
    Most of the discussions coming out of this crisis are talking medium to long term fixes so this short term problem doesn’t happen again, but I was wondering what the best really short term mitigations might be.

    Almost all are on the demand destruction side: speed limits (France already seems to have acted on this), work from home mandates, business travel bans (plenty of these already), potentially a big push on retrofit insulation ahead of next winter, if its still going on then.

    On the supply side, most fixes are longer term, whether that’s more wind turbines, further electrification or more drilling. The only really short term thing I can think of is a fiscal boost to domestic and industrial rooftop solar. From past experience that could have an impact counted in months rather than years. Get those panels on those roofs as quickly as possible.
    Gas storage before next winter?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,838
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kinabalu said:

    There are 2 types of mistakes in life. Ones you can correct and ones you have to live with. It's as yet unclear which category Brexit falls into.

    Or one you can ameliorate

    Closer friendly ties but not full rejoin
    No point at present, certainly until brave Sir Nigel has been put back in his box. No hokey cokey associate membership thank you.
    If it is on offer than fine
    Because in 3 years the gurning fool can take us out again. Then as a nation we will be permanently persona non grata.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,758
    Mexicanpete said:

    kinabalu said:

    There are 2 types of mistakes in life. Ones you can correct and ones you have to live with. It's as yet unclear which category Brexit falls into.

    It would be far better if no one had ever thought of Brexit. Sadly some gurning goon in tweeds did think of it.
    A large subset of the same voters are possibly going to inflict PM Farage upon us. But after that most of them will be gone so it's a matter of 'wait it out' patience. We'll get through it and emerge into better days. Ditto with Trump2. You can feel that waning now. Just got to hang on. It's amazing how resilient we are on the progressive left. We're nobody's softies.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,154
    Stark_Dawning said:

    The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?

    All that money and support for Brexit campaigning from non-Dom media moguls and hedge fund / PE entrepreneurs... was it just about them being able to keep their money from tax authorities?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,249
    Point of order: the oldest baby boomers are 80 now.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,838
    Andy_JS said:

    Taz said:

    Just seen Lord Rooker crop up on Twitter talking about women’s rights.

    Got to say, what a lovely accent. It’s great to hear.

    Yes I can never understand why people describe the Brummy accent as terrible.
    That is because it is terrible.

    When I speak, my mind's ear hears James Mason, everyone else hears Jasper Carrot's "nutter on the bus".
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,210
    edited April 14
    4% of the public heard about oil/ fuel prices and just 2% the Strait of Hormuz

    And Trump [general] 5% !!!!


    https://x.com/i/status/2044078406778704134
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,884
    Stark_Dawning said:

    The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?

    It is pretty obvious to anyone who goes on holiday or business to the EU that Brexit was folly and that the Europeans have a better life than us, except perhaps in the areas of Britain that voted Remain.

    Leavers are still resentful of the failure of their precious, which becomes more obvious over time. No one likes being slapped in the face by their poor choice every time they visit.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,154
    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    The interesting figure is the wanting much closer relations in terms of trade at 39% but only 18% want much closer alignment with EU rules and laws .

    So not accepting you can’t really have one without the other .

    Yes. That's the problem with single issue questions when issues are not single. Do you want guns? Yes. Do you want butter? Yes. But do you prioritise guns or butter? Yes. No. Don't know. Both. I'll come back to you on that one.
    People still not understanding that trade requires regulations and laws, though I suppose not too surprising when they'll happily buy electrical devices off ebay/amazon/etc and burn their house down
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,838
    kinabalu said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    kinabalu said:

    There are 2 types of mistakes in life. Ones you can correct and ones you have to live with. It's as yet unclear which category Brexit falls into.

    It would be far better if no one had ever thought of Brexit. Sadly some gurning goon in tweeds did think of it.
    A large subset of the same voters are possibly going to inflict PM Farage upon us. But after that most of them will be gone so it's a matter of 'wait it out' patience. We'll get through it and emerge into better days. Ditto with Trump2. You can feel that waning now. Just got to hang on. It's amazing how resilient we are on the progressive left. We're nobody's softies.
    Yeah but... time is ticking on.

    At our age if Farage becomes PM in 2029, we will be lumbered for half our remaining lives with that halfwit, and imagine he gets a second term...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,249
    ydoethur said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2044061036643221807

    image

    Not so much the real Donald Trump as a very fake Don Quixote.
    I never liked Trump anyway, but his recent determination to criticise Britain often is really annoying me to a surprising extent. Can he not just piss off and mismanage his own country?

    Also, if Starmer gets a resurgence in popularity as a result of being relentlessly criticised by the odious twit in the White House it will be most unmerited.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,614
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    4% of the public heard about oil/ fuel prices and just 2% the Strait of Hormuz

    And Trump [general] 5% !!!!


    https://x.com/i/status/2044078406778704134

    That’s a bit selective of you, I partook in this poll and said Iran conflict in general when I meant all the stuff like Trump, Hormuz, and fuel prices.

    What news story did Britons hear the most about last week (fieldwork 12-13 April)

    Iran conflict (all): 64%
    - In general: 51%
    - Ceasefire talks: 7%
    - Oil/fuel price increases: 4%
    - Strait of Hormuz: 2%

    Artemis II: 11%
    Trump [general]: 5%
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,450
    kinabalu said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    kinabalu said:

    There are 2 types of mistakes in life. Ones you can correct and ones you have to live with. It's as yet unclear which category Brexit falls into.

    It would be far better if no one had ever thought of Brexit. Sadly some gurning goon in tweeds did think of it.
    A large subset of the same voters are possibly going to inflict PM Farage upon us. But after that most of them will be gone so it's a matter of 'wait it out' patience. We'll get through it and emerge into better days. Ditto with Trump2. You can feel that waning now. Just got to hang on. It's amazing how resilient we are on the progressive left. We're nobody's softies.
    It is to be hoped that Trump a) doesn't manage to fix the November Senate and House elections and b) loses both Chambers. That might confine him to making foolish and/or blasphemous statements on Truth Social but otherwise constrain his ability to do any more damage.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,889
    turbotubbs said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?

    The collapse in the leave vote is heavily linked to Covid (and its economic impacts), the war in Ukraine (and its economic impacts) and the general feeling of national decline.

    Imagine if Remain had won and then covid and Ukraine had happened. What would Leave be polling now?
    Probably much as they are now, because an awful lot of what we've seen is the action of the Grim Reaper. Here's the Ipsos breakdown of the 2016 referendum by age:

    18-24: R75 L25
    25-34: R60 L40
    35-44: R55 L45
    45-54: R44 L56
    55-64: R39 L61
    65-74: R34 L66
    75+: R37 L63

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum

    Now roll those ages forward a decade. Leaverdom had to run very fast to stand still, and they haven't, because it hasn't been seen as a success. But a lot of what we're seeing looks like an identity thing. It's not that people have changed their minds, it's that the people have changed, and will continue to do so.

    (And before anyone starts, this isn't about wishing Leave voters dead, it's just observing that death comes to us all.)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,838
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    4% of the public heard about oil/ fuel prices and just 2% the Strait of Hormuz

    And Trump [general] 5% !!!!


    https://x.com/i/status/2044078406778704134

    That’s a bit selective of you, I partook in this poll and said Iran conflict in general when I meant all the stuff like Trump, Hormuz, and fuel prices.

    What news story did Britons hear the most about last week (fieldwork 12-13 April)

    Iran conflict (all): 64%
    - In general: 51%
    - Ceasefire talks: 7%
    - Oil/fuel price increases: 4%
    - Strait of Hormuz: 2%

    Artemis II: 11%
    Trump [general]: 5%
    Has anyone ever seen BigG and Ted Verity in the same room?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,288
    edited April 14
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    4% of the public heard about oil/ fuel prices and just 2% the Strait of Hormuz

    And Trump [general] 5% !!!!


    https://x.com/i/status/2044078406778704134

    That’s not what the polling shows.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,249
    edited April 14
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    4% of the public heard about oil/ fuel prices and just 2% the Strait of Hormuz

    And Trump [general] 5% !!!!


    https://x.com/i/status/2044078406778704134

    The question is: what news story did you hear about most?
    And the answer with 64% was the Iran conflict, of which the Strait of Hormuz is but one aspect, and consequences for fuel prices another.

    I think you are misunderstanding the question and the responses.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,492
    OldKingCole said:

    Mrs C and I were talking to our window cleaner today, as he did some 'inside' cleaning. Pleasant young chap, in, I would say, his mid to late 20's. Uses all sorts of aids; pressure hose and the like, not just a mop and a bucket.
    Didn't ask him how he voted, but, in talking about TV programmes he said he liked programmes about the 50's and 60's 'everything seemed so much more settled then!'

    In reality society was changing far more rapidly in the 50s and 60s tha it is today.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,705
    Mexicanpete said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Taz said:

    Just seen Lord Rooker crop up on Twitter talking about women’s rights.

    Got to say, what a lovely accent. It’s great to hear.

    Yes I can never understand why people describe the Brummy accent as terrible.
    That is because it is terrible.

    When I speak, my mind's ear hears James Mason, everyone else hears Jasper Carrot's "nutter on the bus".
    The good news is that almost no-one under 40 knows of Jasper Carrott.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,453
    ydoethur said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2044061036643221807

    image

    Not so much the real Donald Trump as a very fake Don Quixote.
    What has he got against windmills?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,519
    Stuartinromford said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?

    The collapse in the leave vote is heavily linked to Covid (and its economic impacts), the war in Ukraine (and its economic impacts) and the general feeling of national decline.

    Imagine if Remain had won and then covid and Ukraine had happened. What would Leave be polling now?
    Probably much as they are now, because an awful lot of what we've seen is the action of the Grim Reaper. Here's the Ipsos breakdown of the 2016 referendum by age:

    18-24: R75 L25
    25-34: R60 L40
    35-44: R55 L45
    45-54: R44 L56
    55-64: R39 L61
    65-74: R34 L66
    75+: R37 L63

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum

    Now roll those ages forward a decade. Leaverdom had to run very fast to stand still, and they haven't, because it hasn't been seen as a success. But a lot of what we're seeing looks like an identity thing. It's not that people have changed their minds, it's that the people have changed, and will continue to do so.

    (And before anyone starts, this isn't about wishing Leave voters dead, it's just observing that death comes to us all.)
    People become more conservative as they get older, though. So that works against the thesis.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,453
    LostPassword said:

    Point of order: the oldest baby boomers are 80 now.

    I got de-threaded- at the end of the previous thread I said this:
    It would be interesting to see figures on the cost of just pensions to the state, and on when the drop-off of us oldies dying off kicks in, how quickly, and the impact that will have.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,519
    Sandpit said:

    Way offtopic, but might be of interest to some here (or their kids).

    British Airways has applications open, *for one week only*, for a cadet pilot academy scheme, a *fully-funded* air transport pilot’s licence with a very rare job for life at the end of it.

    If you were paying this yourself (to go work EasyJet or Ryanair) it would be somewhere around £250k and it’s not covered by a ‘student loan’.

    https://careers.ba.com/Speedbird-Pilot-Academy-Preparation

    Minimum age 17 on application, 18 at course start, no prior flying experience necessary (but it’s going to be very competitive, and most of the successful applicants probably will have some experience, even if it’s in gliders or air experience flights).

    Closes on 23rd April.

    More for the grandkids I think: I doubt BA will be bringing anyone on board who is older than about 25, and the youngest posters on here are probably in their early 80s.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,249
    AnneJGP said:

    ydoethur said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2044061036643221807

    image

    Not so much the real Donald Trump as a very fake Don Quixote.
    What has he got against windmills?
    His friends make money from coal mines.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,210
    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    4% of the public heard about oil/ fuel prices and just 2% the Strait of Hormuz

    And Trump [general] 5% !!!!


    https://x.com/i/status/2044078406778704134

    That’s a bit selective of you, I partook in this poll and said Iran conflict in general when I meant all the stuff like Trump, Hormuz, and fuel prices.

    What news story did Britons hear the most about last week (fieldwork 12-13 April)

    Iran conflict (all): 64%
    - In general: 51%
    - Ceasefire talks: 7%
    - Oil/fuel price increases: 4%
    - Strait of Hormuz: 2%

    Artemis II: 11%
    Trump [general]: 5%
    Has anyone ever seen BigG and Ted Verity in the same room?
    I posted the whole poll but those specifics were surprising
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,884
    rcs1000 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?

    The collapse in the leave vote is heavily linked to Covid (and its economic impacts), the war in Ukraine (and its economic impacts) and the general feeling of national decline.

    Imagine if Remain had won and then covid and Ukraine had happened. What would Leave be polling now?
    Probably much as they are now, because an awful lot of what we've seen is the action of the Grim Reaper. Here's the Ipsos breakdown of the 2016 referendum by age:

    18-24: R75 L25
    25-34: R60 L40
    35-44: R55 L45
    45-54: R44 L56
    55-64: R39 L61
    65-74: R34 L66
    75+: R37 L63

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum

    Now roll those ages forward a decade. Leaverdom had to run very fast to stand still, and they haven't, because it hasn't been seen as a success. But a lot of what we're seeing looks like an identity thing. It's not that people have changed their minds, it's that the people have changed, and will continue to do so.

    (And before anyone starts, this isn't about wishing Leave voters dead, it's just observing that death comes to us all.)
    People become more conservative as they get older, though. So that works against the thesis.
    Historically that was the case, but it is much less true than it was. Increasingly age cohorts keep their voting preferences through the decades. It is an identity thing.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,257
    Dopermean said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?

    All that money and support for Brexit campaigning from non-Dom media moguls and hedge fund / PE entrepreneurs... was it just about them being able to keep their money from tax authorities?
    https://fullfact.org/online/brexit-not-concealing-offshore-accounts/
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,288
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    4% of the public heard about oil/ fuel prices and just 2% the Strait of Hormuz

    And Trump [general] 5% !!!!


    https://x.com/i/status/2044078406778704134

    That’s a bit selective of you, I partook in this poll and said Iran conflict in general when I meant all the stuff like Trump, Hormuz, and fuel prices.

    What news story did Britons hear the most about last week (fieldwork 12-13 April)

    Iran conflict (all): 64%
    - In general: 51%
    - Ceasefire talks: 7%
    - Oil/fuel price increases: 4%
    - Strait of Hormuz: 2%

    Artemis II: 11%
    Trump [general]: 5%
    Has anyone ever seen BigG and Ted Verity in the same room?
    I posted the whole poll but those specifics were surprising
    You misrepresented the poll, and the specifics were not surprising.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,453
    Stuartinromford said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?

    The collapse in the leave vote is heavily linked to Covid (and its economic impacts), the war in Ukraine (and its economic impacts) and the general feeling of national decline.

    Imagine if Remain had won and then covid and Ukraine had happened. What would Leave be polling now?
    Probably much as they are now, because an awful lot of what we've seen is the action of the Grim Reaper. Here's the Ipsos breakdown of the 2016 referendum by age:

    18-24: R75 L25
    25-34: R60 L40
    35-44: R55 L45
    45-54: R44 L56
    55-64: R39 L61
    65-74: R34 L66
    75+: R37 L63

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum

    Now roll those ages forward a decade. Leaverdom had to run very fast to stand still, and they haven't, because it hasn't been seen as a success. But a lot of what we're seeing looks like an identity thing. It's not that people have changed their minds, it's that the people have changed, and will continue to do so.

    (And before anyone starts, this isn't about wishing Leave voters dead, it's just observing that death comes to us all.)
    If you're right about it being an identity thing, then we may soon need to factor in the appeal of Restore. Rupert Lowe seems to be speaking particularly to young white men, among others.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,884
    edited April 14
    AnneJGP said:

    ydoethur said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2044061036643221807

    image

    Not so much the real Donald Trump as a very fake Don Quixote.
    What has he got against windmills?
    They spoil the view from his golf course. He really is that petty and narcisstic.

    BBC News - How Trump's loathing for wind turbines started with a Scottish court battle - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c15l3knp4xyo?app-referrer=deep-link
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,453
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Consecutive threads on Brexit today, I know how to spoil PBers.

    I was expecting the new thread to feature the milk poll.
    According to that, I ought to be a Reform voter.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,705
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Way offtopic, but might be of interest to some here (or their kids).

    British Airways has applications open, *for one week only*, for a cadet pilot academy scheme, a *fully-funded* air transport pilot’s licence with a very rare job for life at the end of it.

    If you were paying this yourself (to go work EasyJet or Ryanair) it would be somewhere around £250k and it’s not covered by a ‘student loan’.

    https://careers.ba.com/Speedbird-Pilot-Academy-Preparation

    Minimum age 17 on application, 18 at course start, no prior flying experience necessary (but it’s going to be very competitive, and most of the successful applicants probably will have some experience, even if it’s in gliders or air experience flights).

    Closes on 23rd April.

    More for the grandkids I think: I doubt BA will be bringing anyone on board who is older than about 25, and the youngest posters on here are probably in their early 80s.
    I have to admit it’s a little annoying to be in my 40s and seeing a pilot shortage, a little too late for a change of career in that direction.

    A friend of mine got in aged 18 in 1997, before the whole BA cadet programme went on hiatus for more than a decade.

    It’s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,758
    edited April 14
    Mexicanpete said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    kinabalu said:

    There are 2 types of mistakes in life. Ones you can correct and ones you have to live with. It's as yet unclear which category Brexit falls into.

    It would be far better if no one had ever thought of Brexit. Sadly some gurning goon in tweeds did think of it.
    A large subset of the same voters are possibly going to inflict PM Farage upon us. But after that most of them will be gone so it's a matter of 'wait it out' patience. We'll get through it and emerge into better days. Ditto with Trump2. You can feel that waning now. Just got to hang on. It's amazing how resilient we are on the progressive left. We're nobody's softies.
    Yeah but... time is ticking on.

    At our age if Farage becomes PM in 2029, we will be lumbered for half our remaining lives with that halfwit, and imagine he gets a second term...
    It's a good point. I'm knocking on. I'm actually quite confident of the populist right fading - but if it doesn't, no, that is not the landscape I want for my years of rocking chair contemplation.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?

    The collapse in the leave vote is heavily linked to Covid (and its economic impacts), the war in Ukraine (and its economic impacts) and the general feeling of national decline.

    Imagine if Remain had won and then covid and Ukraine had happened. What would Leave be polling now?
    Probably much as they are now, because an awful lot of what we've seen is the action of the Grim Reaper. Here's the Ipsos breakdown of the 2016 referendum by age:

    18-24: R75 L25
    25-34: R60 L40
    35-44: R55 L45
    45-54: R44 L56
    55-64: R39 L61
    65-74: R34 L66
    75+: R37 L63

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum

    Now roll those ages forward a decade. Leaverdom had to run very fast to stand still, and they haven't, because it hasn't been seen as a success. But a lot of what we're seeing looks like an identity thing. It's not that people have changed their minds, it's that the people have changed, and will continue to do so.

    (And before anyone starts, this isn't about wishing Leave voters dead, it's just observing that death comes to us all.)
    People become more conservative as they get older, though. So that works against the thesis.
    Historically that was the case, but it is much less true than it was. Increasingly age cohorts keep their voting preferences through the decades. It is an identity thing.
    And a wealth/age thing. What is the point of being conservative if you don't get the opportunity to build up wealth to conserve?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,249
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?

    The collapse in the leave vote is heavily linked to Covid (and its economic impacts), the war in Ukraine (and its economic impacts) and the general feeling of national decline.

    Imagine if Remain had won and then covid and Ukraine had happened. What would Leave be polling now?
    Probably much as they are now, because an awful lot of what we've seen is the action of the Grim Reaper. Here's the Ipsos breakdown of the 2016 referendum by age:

    18-24: R75 L25
    25-34: R60 L40
    35-44: R55 L45
    45-54: R44 L56
    55-64: R39 L61
    65-74: R34 L66
    75+: R37 L63

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum

    Now roll those ages forward a decade. Leaverdom had to run very fast to stand still, and they haven't, because it hasn't been seen as a success. But a lot of what we're seeing looks like an identity thing. It's not that people have changed their minds, it's that the people have changed, and will continue to do so.

    (And before anyone starts, this isn't about wishing Leave voters dead, it's just observing that death comes to us all.)
    People become more conservative as they get older, though. So that works against the thesis.
    Historically that was the case, but it is much less true than it was. Increasingly age cohorts keep their voting preferences through the decades. It is an identity thing.
    It's not obvious that being pro/anti the EU is a left/right issue. People now advocate that Labour make it a manifesto commitment to rejoin the EU. Back in 1983 it was a manifesto commitment that a Labour government would leave.

    So people might become more conservative as they age (if they were able to buy a house, etc), but that wouldn't make them anti the EU.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,154
    carnforth said:

    Dopermean said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?

    All that money and support for Brexit campaigning from non-Dom media moguls and hedge fund / PE entrepreneurs... was it just about them being able to keep their money from tax authorities?
    https://fullfact.org/online/brexit-not-concealing-offshore-accounts/
    From your link which, if you're struggling with reading comprehension, confirms that the EU was introducing additional legislation on tax avoidance, but also that the wording of Terry Christian's tweet wasn't accurate.
    "We’ve found two sets of EU laws (relating to tax avoidance and money laundering) that we think he could be referring to, as at least some parts come into place in January 2020. However, neither of these forces the owners of offshore accounts to “come clean” as the tweet describes."
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,288
    edited April 14
    noneoftheabove said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?

    The collapse in the leave vote is heavily linked to Covid (and its economic impacts), the war in Ukraine (and its economic impacts) and the general feeling of national decline.

    Imagine if Remain had won and then covid and Ukraine had happened. What would Leave be polling now?
    Probably much as they are now, because an awful lot of what we've seen is the action of the Grim Reaper. Here's the Ipsos breakdown of the 2016 referendum by age:

    18-24: R75 L25
    25-34: R60 L40
    35-44: R55 L45
    45-54: R44 L56
    55-64: R39 L61
    65-74: R34 L66
    75+: R37 L63

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum

    Now roll those ages forward a decade. Leaverdom had to run very fast to stand still, and they haven't, because it hasn't been seen as a success. But a lot of what we're seeing looks like an identity thing. It's not that people have changed their minds, it's that the people have changed, and will continue to do so.

    (And before anyone starts, this isn't about wishing Leave voters dead, it's just observing that death comes to us all.)
    People become more conservative as they get older, though. So that works against the thesis.
    Historically that was the case, but it is much less true than it was. Increasingly age cohorts keep their voting preferences through the decades. It is an identity thing.
    And a wealth/age thing. What is the point of being conservative if you don't get the opportunity to build up wealth to conserve?
    The Conservatives failed to make any new Conservative voters. If you only focus on those that exist now, they grow older and older until you only represent pensioners.

    What is curious is what happens as the boomers die off (over the next couple of decades or so) and pass on an inheritance. Do those inheritors become Conservatives? Or is the legacy of renting and student fees too deep a wound to heal?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,453
    Stark_Dawning said:

    The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?

    Well, it's done, we left. Only the impetus of outraged feelings can maintain interest. Prior to the vote, there were a lot of outraged feelings that we needed to leave. Now it's done, we left.

    Prior to the vote, the people who wanted to remain weren't truly all that concerned because they believed the vote wouldn't go against them, thus stoking the outrage on the leave side. So now it's the people who wanted to remain who are interested.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,758
    OldKingCole said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    kinabalu said:

    There are 2 types of mistakes in life. Ones you can correct and ones you have to live with. It's as yet unclear which category Brexit falls into.

    It would be far better if no one had ever thought of Brexit. Sadly some gurning goon in tweeds did think of it.
    A large subset of the same voters are possibly going to inflict PM Farage upon us. But after that most of them will be gone so it's a matter of 'wait it out' patience. We'll get through it and emerge into better days. Ditto with Trump2. You can feel that waning now. Just got to hang on. It's amazing how resilient we are on the progressive left. We're nobody's softies.
    It is to be hoped that Trump a) doesn't manage to fix the November Senate and House elections and b) loses both Chambers. That might confine him to making foolish and/or blasphemous statements on Truth Social but otherwise constrain his ability to do any more damage.
    That's my fervent hope and tentative expectation. He becomes a kind of pretend president. Still chuntering, doing press and tv, renaming things, some Beast and Airforce1, lots more grift, the odd rally and wrestling event, etc. But in his box as regards anything consequential. He won't mind if it's handled right. Might not even realise.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,884
    LostPassword said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?

    The collapse in the leave vote is heavily linked to Covid (and its economic impacts), the war in Ukraine (and its economic impacts) and the general feeling of national decline.

    Imagine if Remain had won and then covid and Ukraine had happened. What would Leave be polling now?
    Probably much as they are now, because an awful lot of what we've seen is the action of the Grim Reaper. Here's the Ipsos breakdown of the 2016 referendum by age:

    18-24: R75 L25
    25-34: R60 L40
    35-44: R55 L45
    45-54: R44 L56
    55-64: R39 L61
    65-74: R34 L66
    75+: R37 L63

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum

    Now roll those ages forward a decade. Leaverdom had to run very fast to stand still, and they haven't, because it hasn't been seen as a success. But a lot of what we're seeing looks like an identity thing. It's not that people have changed their minds, it's that the people have changed, and will continue to do so.

    (And before anyone starts, this isn't about wishing Leave voters dead, it's just observing that death comes to us all.)
    People become more conservative as they get older, though. So that works against the thesis.
    Historically that was the case, but it is much less true than it was. Increasingly age cohorts keep their voting preferences through the decades. It is an identity thing.
    It's not obvious that being pro/anti the EU is a left/right issue. People now advocate that Labour make it a manifesto commitment to rejoin the EU. Back in 1983 it was a manifesto commitment that a Labour government would leave.

    So people might become more conservative as they age (if they were able to buy a house, etc), but that wouldn't make them anti the EU.
    Though of course the Conservative party in the Eighties was strongly pro-EU. The Single Market was very much Mrs Thatchers doing, and at the Conservative party conference decorated with EU flags alongside the Union Jack on at least one occasion.
  • occasionalranteroccasionalranter Posts: 939
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Consecutive threads on Brexit today, I know how to spoil PBers.

    *spoil PB.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,154
    AnneJGP said:

    LostPassword said:

    Point of order: the oldest baby boomers are 80 now.

    I got de-threaded- at the end of the previous thread I said this:
    It would be interesting to see figures on the cost of just pensions to the state, and on when the drop-off of us oldies dying off kicks in, how quickly, and the impact that will have.
    It doesn't, from Fidelity
    "The longer-term trend is clear. The Office for Budget Responsibility has forecast that the total pensioner spending could rise to around 8% of GDP by 2072/73 - and potentially even more if the economy continues to suffer weaker and more volatile growth."

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,614
    occasionalranter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Consecutive threads on Brexit today, I know how to spoil PBers.

    *spoil PB.
    I promise no more Brexit threads this month unless something major happen or if there's a truly interesting Brexit poll.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,661
    edited April 14
    kinabalu said:

    There are 2 types of mistakes in life. Ones you can correct and ones you have to live with. It's as yet unclear which category Brexit falls into.

    We should live with the mistake in my view, we are where are and let's make the best of it. But we can't because living with the mistake means accepting suboptimal outcomes - we're poorer than we would otherwise be; have fewer freedoms; have to accept EU rules without a say; be in perpetual negotiation with the EU from a position of relative weakness; have reduced influence to get the things we want; etc.

    Remainers don't accept the suboptimal outcomes because they voted the other way to reject these things, and Leavers also don't accept the outcomes because they didn't vote Leave to have less say and make things worse

    Which is why the argument continues without resolution contrary to everyone's interest.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,814
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Taz said:

    Just seen Lord Rooker crop up on Twitter talking about women’s rights.

    Got to say, what a lovely accent. It’s great to hear.

    Yes I can never understand why people describe the Brummy accent as terrible.
    That is because it is terrible.

    When I speak, my mind's ear hears James Mason, everyone else hears Jasper Carrot's "nutter on the bus".
    The good news is that almost no-one under 40 knows of Jasper Carrott.
    Oh come, he had some absolute classics.

    "I was at a Birmingham City match the other day, and I said to the guy next to me. OI! YOU! YES YOU OVER THERE!"
    "Oi've got a mole, yaw know..."
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,296
    edited April 14
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    occasionalranter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Consecutive threads on Brexit today, I know how to spoil PBers.

    *spoil PB.
    I promise no more Brexit threads this month unless something major happen or if there's a truly interesting Brexit poll.
    Your previous thread says there are 2 more articles to come.

    Lawyer tells lies shock
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,453
    Eabhal said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The collapse in the Leave vote is quite amazing. I always assumed that sheer emotion alone would have kept it around 50%. That this hasn't happened demonstrates the plunging ineptitude of those tasked with making Brexit a success. Or were they only interested in getting the thing over the line and didn't give a hoot about what followed?

    The collapse in the leave vote is heavily linked to Covid (and its economic impacts), the war in Ukraine (and its economic impacts) and the general feeling of national decline.

    Imagine if Remain had won and then covid and Ukraine had happened. What would Leave be polling now?
    Probably much as they are now, because an awful lot of what we've seen is the action of the Grim Reaper. Here's the Ipsos breakdown of the 2016 referendum by age:

    18-24: R75 L25
    25-34: R60 L40
    35-44: R55 L45
    45-54: R44 L56
    55-64: R39 L61
    65-74: R34 L66
    75+: R37 L63

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum

    Now roll those ages forward a decade. Leaverdom had to run very fast to stand still, and they haven't, because it hasn't been seen as a success. But a lot of what we're seeing looks like an identity thing. It's not that people have changed their minds, it's that the people have changed, and will continue to do so.

    (And before anyone starts, this isn't about wishing Leave voters dead, it's just observing that death comes to us all.)
    People become more conservative as they get older, though. So that works against the thesis.
    Historically that was the case, but it is much less true than it was. Increasingly age cohorts keep their voting preferences through the decades. It is an identity thing.
    And a wealth/age thing. What is the point of being conservative if you don't get the opportunity to build up wealth to conserve?
    The Conservatives failed to make any new Conservative voters. If you only focus on those that exist now, they grow older and older until you only represent pensioners.

    What is curious is what happens as the boomers die off (over the next couple of decades or so) and pass on an inheritance. Do those inheritors become Conservatives? Or is the legacy of renting and student fees too deep a wound to heal?
    If there is any inheritance left after care homes fees or similar, seems to me it won't go very far. Maybe for a one-child family, left to the child only. In my own case, however, no children but nieces/nephews and grandnieces/nephews, a modest inheritance split several ways will result in not very much for each.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,453
    Dopermean said:

    AnneJGP said:

    LostPassword said:

    Point of order: the oldest baby boomers are 80 now.

    I got de-threaded- at the end of the previous thread I said this:
    It would be interesting to see figures on the cost of just pensions to the state, and on when the drop-off of us oldies dying off kicks in, how quickly, and the impact that will have.
    It doesn't, from Fidelity
    "The longer-term trend is clear. The Office for Budget Responsibility has forecast that the total pensioner spending could rise to around 8% of GDP by 2072/73 - and potentially even more if the economy continues to suffer weaker and more volatile growth."

    That is very concerning.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,614
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    occasionalranter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Consecutive threads on Brexit today, I know how to spoil PBers.

    *spoil PB.
    I promise no more Brexit threads this month unless something major happen or if there's a truly interesting Brexit poll.
    Your previous thread says there are 2 more articles to come.

    Lawyer tells lies shock
    I meant no more threads by me, Fishing may produce two more articles this month.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,893
    https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/2044045804596346931

    Basically the entire Iran war selloff has been erased
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,296
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    occasionalranter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Consecutive threads on Brexit today, I know how to spoil PBers.

    *spoil PB.
    I promise no more Brexit threads this month unless something major happen or if there's a truly interesting Brexit poll.
    Your previous thread says there are 2 more articles to come.

    Lawyer tells lies shock
    I meant no more threads by me, Fishing may produce two more articles this month.
    Now youre sounding like Starmer making a U turn

    Just accept youre a lawyer and lie for a living.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,661
    occasionalranter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    occasionalranter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Consecutive threads on Brexit today, I know how to spoil PBers.

    *spoil PB.
    I promise no more Brexit threads this month unless something major happen or if there's a truly interesting Brexit poll.
    You probably know I'm only messing, I'm basically very happy that someone is willing to put in the effort to originate and shepherd discussions on any current topic :)
    Endorse this comment. I don't how you keep producing threads day after day getting engagement across the political spectrum. Truly wonderful.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,614
    occasionalranter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    occasionalranter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Consecutive threads on Brexit today, I know how to spoil PBers.

    *spoil PB.
    I promise no more Brexit threads this month unless something major happen or if there's a truly interesting Brexit poll.
    You probably know I'm only messing, I'm basically very happy that someone is willing to put in the effort to originate and shepherd discussions on any current topic :)
    Look on the bright side, with the Holyrood election next month, I think PB will be focussing more on Scottish independence.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,296
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    occasionalranter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    occasionalranter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Consecutive threads on Brexit today, I know how to spoil PBers.

    *spoil PB.
    I promise no more Brexit threads this month unless something major happen or if there's a truly interesting Brexit poll.
    You probably know I'm only messing, I'm basically very happy that someone is willing to put in the effort to originate and shepherd discussions on any current topic :)
    Look on the bright side, with the Holyrood election next month, I think PB will be focussing more on Scottish independence.
    Bring back James Kelly and Stuart Dickson
This discussion has been closed.

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