How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
(Commented above on the first)
Jerusalem is just scary. I rather like Israel, but not so Jerusalem.
Jerusalem is an amazing place. Even for those without religious belief the old city is a phenomenal site. I walked everywhere there and never felt unsafe in any neighbourhood.
I am glad that I went when I did. There was peace then, albeit a fragile one.
Well if you like a city seething with hostility then it is amazing.
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz
In short, the maximum the Iranian regime is willing to offer does not come close to the minimum the U.S. administration is demanding.
As long as both sides believe they hold the upper hand, and therefore see no need to compromise, the prospects for escalation will outweigh the chances for de-escalation. From the Iranian perspective in particular, there is little indication of a willingness to bend.
Under these conditions, the path forward is far more likely to lead to confrontation than to agreement.
The pipeline to Jask is not, as far as I'm aware, operational. Albeit it probably could be operationalized relatively quickly.
Re: 1
There are nearly no Chinese *flagged* oil tankers. Quite a few Chinese *owned* - but they are mostly registered in the usual countries - Liberia, Panama....
How on earth do you know this?
Firstly, vast swathes of shipping is registered to a handful of tiny countries. For tax reason mostly. Liberia is a shipping titan by registration. Putting your oil tankers at arms length is an old thing. You don't want liability for accidents arriving at your door.
Secondly, you can find out about fleet, registrations etc online. Google is your friend, if you use it right. China is no different than the rest of the world in this.
Ok. Perhaps the question should have been 'Why do you know this?'
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
A Dem President from 2029 would likely be more critical of Israel, a GOP President wouldn't to any significant degree.
Conservative evangelicals are fanatically pro Israel in the USA, even more than US Jews and conservative evangelicals are the GOP core vote now.
The pipeline to Jask is not, as far as I'm aware, operational. Albeit it probably could be operationalized relatively quickly.
Re: 1
There are nearly no Chinese *flagged* oil tankers. Quite a few Chinese *owned* - but they are mostly registered in the usual countries - Liberia, Panama....
Are you sure about Panama?
As I have it, there is currently a major dispute between China and Panama, because of the way Panama chucked Hutchison out of the Panama Canal, and China are targeting Panama-flagged vessels with petty bureaucracy.
That's from shipping reporting specialists. Perhaps they have not moved yet.
Trump: "I could take out Iran in one day. In one hour, I could have their entire energy, everything, every one of their electric generating plants, which is a big deal. I hate to do it because if I do it, it takes you 10 years to rebuild. They'll never be able to. And the other thing you take out are their bridges. I took out one just to show them."
If he had any sense (hmmm) he'd be pointing out that Russia and China are supporting Iran and if people object to what he's doing you are playing into those countries' hands.
Which causes him painful cognitive dissonance because he loves Vlad so much and is quite fond of Xi as well.
The Xi meeting in May is now absolutely fucking crucial. Will it happen? Will Trump postpone again? Will he have to sort the clusterfuck clownshow he has launched in the Middle East in time for his meeting with the Big People who control Rare Earth?
Ornan loses by 55.5% to 37.9% according to exit poll on X.
Orban!
BADENOCH
JENRICK
Bit early to start a "your boys took a hell of a beating" list.
And harsh on Badenoch, if not on Bob.
An excellent result for Kemi surely? If centre right Magyar can beat Orban then maybe she can beat Farage!
I doubt it. Farage is the new leader of the right (albeit one who has been around for a long long time), not an old fart who has run his country for around 20 years total - in a democratic society even the best cannot keep that up forever, they lose their sharpness and how to manage party and the public.
I would contest the idea that Farage isn't an old fart...
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
(Commented above on the first)
Jerusalem is just scary. I rather like Israel, but not so Jerusalem.
Jerusalem is an amazing place. Even for those without religious belief the old city is a phenomenal site. I walked everywhere there and never felt unsafe in any neighbourhood.
I am glad that I went when I did. There was peace then, albeit a fragile one.
Well if you like a city seething with hostility then it is amazing.
It was 2000 when I was there. There were tensions, but not seething with hostility. I was staying with Palestinian Christians, but walked through a Haredi neighbourhood to get to the Old City. There were soldiers at the gates, but mostly bored conscripts chatting rather than a threat.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
The pipeline to Jask is not, as far as I'm aware, operational. Albeit it probably could be operationalized relatively quickly.
Re: 1
There are nearly no Chinese *flagged* oil tankers. Quite a few Chinese *owned* - but they are mostly registered in the usual countries - Liberia, Panama....
Isn't it even often even more complicated where they are flagged in one country, the operator and owner are different again, often shell companies, and perhaps if you do enough leg work, you might get back to the fact that perhaps they are connected to Hong Kong somehow, which doesn't instantly mean China. Mostly likely China, but not 100%.
Yes.
The classic is that you set up a company per tanker. The company is based in a different country to the flag on the tanker. The company owns the tanker, but you load it up with debt. Both countries have essentially no rules on employment, safety etc. Just give them a fee.
So if there are any accidents, all people can do is sue a company that is bankrupt - it probably just lost its only asset - in places where a lawsuit won't work.
That company is owned by another company. Depending how... convoluted your finances are, that leads to a chains of ownership. Which is very. very multinational.
So you have complete immunity to liability, you can pay the crew starvation wages and tax is optional.
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
The prospect of free and fair midterms is remote; the prospect of all significant groups agreeing to act on the basis they were free and fair is remoter. I don't think, unless Trumpworld shifts rapidly, they will happen at all.
I think they will, but there will be serious disruption in advance and many legal challenges from both sides (either to contest GOP losses - if usual midterm woes hit - or Dem losses/failures - if they believe GOP states meddled with the rules).
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
A Dem President from 2029 would likely be more critical of Israel, a GOP President wouldn't to any significant degree.
Conservative evangelicals are fanatically pro Israel in the USA, even more than US Jews and conservative evangelicals are the GOP core vote now.
But that core is shrinking fast and there’s a whole new cohort of younger republicans who are critical of Israel and some who are violently anti semitic
So Israel’s base of support in the USA is already dwindled on the left and is now briskly dwindling on the right
And imagine this scenario, which is now unfortunately likely. The Iran war continues and it goes bad for the world and for Trump and the GOP. Inflation rockets and gas doubles in price. The midterms are lost big time
Who will republicans blame? Israel. For dragging America into this stupid war - Vance has already been to Jerusalem to shout loudly and angrily at Netanyahu
By 2028 the American right might be even more furious at Israel
The pipeline to Jask is not, as far as I'm aware, operational. Albeit it probably could be operationalized relatively quickly.
Re: 1
There are nearly no Chinese *flagged* oil tankers. Quite a few Chinese *owned* - but they are mostly registered in the usual countries - Liberia, Panama....
How on earth do you know this?
Firstly, vast swathes of shipping is registered to a handful of tiny countries. For tax reason mostly. Liberia is a shipping titan by registration. Putting your oil tankers at arms length is an old thing. You don't want liability for accidents arriving at your door.
Secondly, you can find out about fleet, registrations etc online. Google is your friend, if you use it right. China is no different than the rest of the world in this.
Ok. Perhaps the question should have been 'Why do you know this?'
I used to work for an oil company. They actually owned a few tankers - they were one of the industry holdouts against the race to the bottom (ha!). They had an interesting policy - Captains would retire from the sea to become senior managers in last few years of their careers. So I got to work with some people who had very strong views on the situation.
For those not gripped by Hungarian elections BBC News (231 on my Freeview) has the Scottish Leaders debate.
Obviously only of interest to a PB subsample...
The SNP are going to win easily, the only question is the precise scale, how well Reform do, and maybe how the Greens do. So it's not devoid of any interest, but the outcome is known so not massively interesting.
If he does not, I don't think Hungary will get another chance to get rid of him.
He needs to be comprehensively defeated.
Hungary’s National Assembly has 199 seats, so 100 seats are needed for a simple majority and for a party’s leader to become prime minister. That would be a defeat for Orban.
But 133 seats, a two-thirds majority, which allows constitutional reform, is the comprehensive defeat that is really needed.
133 seats would be ideal and hopefully they clear that significantly, but I would take 100 or 101 so long as Orban goes.
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
(Commented above on the first)
Jerusalem is just scary. I rather like Israel, but not so Jerusalem.
Jerusalem is an amazing place. Even for those without religious belief the old city is a phenomenal site. I walked everywhere there and never felt unsafe in any neighbourhood.
I am glad that I went when I did. There was peace then, albeit a fragile one.
Well if you like a city seething with hostility then it is amazing.
It was 2000 when I was there. There were tensions, but not seething with hostility. I was staying with Palestinian Christians, but walked through a Haredi neighbourhood to get to the Old City. There were soldiers at the gates, but mostly bored conscripts chatting rather than a threat.
30 years ago Jerusalem reminded me very much of the Jerusalem portrayed in Life of Brian, with Romans taking the place of IDF soldiers, and sighing wearily at the extremists on all sides
I’ve been back since and the atmos was notably worse
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
"Literally"?
"Literally" can be a contranym and actually mean "figuratively", but I think he means "actually", figuratively speaking.
No it can't.
It shouldn't. It makes no sense for it to do so. But word usage can shift in unfortunate and fortunate ways, and I think the battle over literally has already been lost.
At least if that is the case hopefully people can also stop being prissy about fewer/less, which in most (not all) cases is not necessary.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
Loving that two people “liked” this sentiment
We all loved lockdown and want to repeat it!
Lockdown for me was fantastic. Loved it.if I’d seen that post I’d have liked it too.
Suspect it will look and feel rather different, even if the economic effect is much the same.
In the Covid lockdowns, you could go places as long as you didn't meet people. And for the first one, I remember the creeping anxiety if you did. (Well that and the combined effect of hand sanitizer and chilly March winds on my skin... ugh).
For this one, persumably we'll be able to meet whoever we like, as long as we don't use any petrol or diesel to do so. Those 15 minute cities are coming for us, no matter what...
I am also one of those who loved lockdown. But I suspect those of us who have that view are from a very privileged minority in terms of work, family, gardens and access to open spaces. We need to be self aware enough to realise that for millions of people it was a very different experience.
Yeah, me, one bed flat, no garden, just divorced, winter alone
Fucking hell, never again
I was living in a nice house with a beautiful garden, with my partner and our new baby boy. It felt lovely, and I work from home anyway
Now I live on my own in the area she wanted to move to but I didn’t, and have genuinely been quite anxious about the prospect of another lockdown.
The pipeline to Jask is not, as far as I'm aware, operational. Albeit it probably could be operationalized relatively quickly.
Re: 1
There are nearly no Chinese *flagged* oil tankers. Quite a few Chinese *owned* - but they are mostly registered in the usual countries - Liberia, Panama....
Are you sure about Panama?
As I have it, there is currently a major dispute between China and Panama, because of the way Panama chucked Hutchison out of the Panama Canal, and China are targeting Panama-flagged vessels with petty bureaucracy.
That's from shipping reporting specialists. Perhaps they have not moved yet.
There's an eternal game played between the Big Countries and Liberia etc.
Because of the way that the Flag Countries are used to get round regulations, laws and any semblance of morality, they get given a shove every now and again.
With 15% in Tisza is now forecast to get 125 seats. Comfortably into majority territory, but not into "change the Constitution"
It's moving in that direction though: 128 : 62 : 8 with 25% counted
I wonder if JD Vance's performance of fairy stories in Hungary this week had a positive or negative impact?
I'm still boggling at him complaining about foreign interference in the election while appearing at a rally for the election.
His confident ability to say nonsense and switch his positions with utter conviction and convincing outrage explains his success in his political career.
Maybe he should have had a career in the church instead.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
"Literally"?
"Literally" can be a contranym and actually mean "figuratively", but I think he means "actually", figuratively speaking.
No it can't.
It shouldn't. It makes no sense for it to do so. But word usage can shift in unfortunate and fortunate ways, and I think the battle over literally has already been lost.
At least if that is the case hopefully people can also stop being prissy about fewer/less, which in most (not all) cases is not necessary.
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
(Commented above on the first)
Jerusalem is just scary. I rather like Israel, but not so Jerusalem.
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
(Commented above on the first)
Jerusalem is just scary. I rather like Israel, but not so Jerusalem.
Jerusalem is an amazing place. Even for those without religious belief the old city is a phenomenal site. I walked everywhere there and never felt unsafe in any neighbourhood.
I am glad that I went when I did. There was peace then, albeit a fragile one.
The pipeline to Jask is not, as far as I'm aware, operational. Albeit it probably could be operationalized relatively quickly.
Re: 1
There are nearly no Chinese *flagged* oil tankers. Quite a few Chinese *owned* - but they are mostly registered in the usual countries - Liberia, Panama....
Isn't it even often even more complicated where they are flagged in one country, the operator and owner are different again, often shell companies, and perhaps if you do enough leg work, you might get back to the fact that perhaps they are connected to Hong Kong somehow, which doesn't instantly mean China. Mostly likely China, but not 100%.
Yes.
The classic is that you set up a company per tanker. The company is based in a different country to the flag on the tanker. The company owns the tanker, but you load it up with debt. Both countries have essentially no rules on employment, safety etc. Just give them a fee.
So if there are any accidents, all people can do is sue a company that is bankrupt - it probably just lost its only asset - in places where a lawsuit won't work.
That company is owned by another company. Depending how... convoluted your finances are, that leads to a chains of ownership. Which is very. very multinational.
So you have complete immunity to liability, you can pay the crew starvation wages and tax is optional.
What's not to like?
I was next to a bloke who was a lifer in the maritime industry on a plane to Asia last year. Some of the stuff he told me, mind boggles. It really is the high seas / wild west.
The other scandal that is brewing is now China doing super sized sea fishing around the world where the fishermen stay out for months / years at a time, and a mega mothership supplies them. They are often fishing in territorial waters of other countries, but nobody can stop them. And the guys on the smaller boats they don't have much of a choice when they go home.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
"Literally"?
"Literally" can be a contranym and actually mean "figuratively", but I think he means "actually", figuratively speaking.
No it can't.
It shouldn't. It makes no sense for it to do so. But word usage can shift in unfortunate and fortunate ways, and I think the battle over literally has already been lost.
At least if that is the case hopefully people can also stop being prissy about fewer/less, which in most (not all) cases is not necessary.
You may think that, but that's just you.
And your contrary view is just you, so I'm not sure what's gained with that stance.
Linguistic rules and usage change all the time, that's fact considering we don't speak like Shakespeare or Chaucer, so people cannot pretend it will remain static forever. Whether certain ones have in fact changed we will only know with the passage of time.
I'm fairly confident that the mere fact that so many people misuse literally is a sign in itself I am right in this prediction.
Viktória Serdült @viktoriaserdult · 1h 🇭🇺Good evening everyone from Tisza press HQ in Budapest. Polling stations have closed in Hungary, weekend polls have just been published, predicting a huge Tisza victory at 54-55, with Fidesz trailing at 38-40%. Only question is whether far right Mi Hazánk will get to Parliament.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
"Literally"?
"Literally" can be a contranym and actually mean "figuratively", but I think he means "actually", figuratively speaking.
No it can't.
It shouldn't. It makes no sense for it to do so. But word usage can shift in unfortunate and fortunate ways, and I think the battle over literally has already been lost.
At least if that is the case hopefully people can also stop being prissy about fewer/less, which in most (not all) cases is not necessary.
You may think that, but that's just you.
Does it ever occur to you that trying to stop language mutating and evolving is pissing in the wind?
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
(Commented above on the first)
Jerusalem is just scary. I rather like Israel, but not so Jerusalem.
Jerusalem is over-rated.
Land of Hope and Glory is better.
Well, when the Russians turn up in their improvised dinghy and take London without a hint of opposition, then that'll be the song.
Viktória Serdült @viktoriaserdult · 1h 🇭🇺Good evening everyone from Tisza press HQ in Budapest. Polling stations have closed in Hungary, weekend polls have just been published, predicting a huge Tisza victory at 54-55, with Fidesz trailing at 38-40%. Only question is whether far right Mi Hazánk will get to Parliament.
MH looks near certain to get in: they're currently at 6.2%, so they would need to do exceptionally poorly with the remainder of the vote not to get to t%.
For those not gripped by Hungarian elections BBC News (231 on my Freeview) has the Scottish Leaders debate.
Obviously only of interest to a PB subsample...
Glanced at it. Looks like a load of middle aged men in dark grey suits shouting over each other.
Edit: Blimey. The camera panned out and it really is an entire pack of males arguing.
One has to wonder if it will shift the voting intention of a single person in Scotland.
They keep changing their Westminster voting intentions over the last 16 years, way more than the rest of the country (even with a couple of contrary landslides), so in theory they are persuadeable, but it seems unlikely at this point.
Most campaigns are not the 2017 GE, and don't shift things massively.
For those not gripped by Hungarian elections BBC News (231 on my Freeview) has the Scottish Leaders debate.
Obviously only of interest to a PB subsample...
Glanced at it. Looks like a load of middle aged men in dark grey suits shouting over each other.
Edit: Blimey. The camera panned out and it really is an entire pack of males arguing.
One has to wonder if it will shift the voting intention of a single person in Scotland.
They keep changing their Westminster voting intentions over the last 16 years, way more than the rest of the country (even with a couple of contrary landslides), so in theory they are persuadeable, but it seems unlikely at this point.
Most campaigns are not the 2017 GE, and don't shift things massively.
It was more just a statement about the inevitable low quality of the shouting...I mean...debate.
Viktória Serdült @viktoriaserdult · 1h 🇭🇺Good evening everyone from Tisza press HQ in Budapest. Polling stations have closed in Hungary, weekend polls have just been published, predicting a huge Tisza victory at 54-55, with Fidesz trailing at 38-40%. Only question is whether far right Mi Hazánk will get to Parliament.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
"Literally"?
"Literally" can be a contranym and actually mean "figuratively", but I think he means "actually", figuratively speaking.
No it can't.
It shouldn't. It makes no sense for it to do so. But word usage can shift in unfortunate and fortunate ways, and I think the battle over literally has already been lost.
At least if that is the case hopefully people can also stop being prissy about fewer/less, which in most (not all) cases is not necessary.
You may think that, but that's just you.
And your contrary view is just you, so I'm not sure what's gained with that stance.
Linguistic rules and usage change all the time, that's fact considering we don't speak like Shakespeare or Chaucer, so people cannot pretend it will remain static forever. Whether certain ones have in fact changed we will only know with the passage of time.
I'm fairly confident that the mere fact that so many people misuse literally is a sign in itself I am right in this prediction.
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
A Dem President from 2029 would likely be more critical of Israel, a GOP President wouldn't to any significant degree.
Conservative evangelicals are fanatically pro Israel in the USA, even more than US Jews and conservative evangelicals are the GOP core vote now.
But that core is shrinking fast and there’s a whole new cohort of younger republicans who are critical of Israel and some who are violently anti semitic
So Israel’s base of support in the USA is already dwindled on the left and is now briskly dwindling on the right
And imagine this scenario, which is now unfortunately likely. The Iran war continues and it goes bad for the world and for Trump and the GOP. Inflation rockets and gas doubles in price. The midterms are lost big time
Who will republicans blame? Israel. For dragging America into this stupid war - Vance has already been to Jerusalem to shout loudly and angrily at Netanyahu
By 2028 the American right might be even more furious at Israel
23% of Americans are conservative evangelicals and they voted 82% for Trump in 2024, they will remain far more significant to the GOP for at least the next decade or two than younger Republicans given Trump lost most US voters under 40 to Harris.
If the Iran war is going badly it is because Trump is not following Israel enough, sending in ground troops to remove the Iranian regime, so as a result he has a half way house of strikes and blockades which keep oil prices high but the regime still in place.
Conservative evangelicals won't blame Israel and without the conservative evangelical vote Roman Catholic Vance can't get the GOP nomination, even if he needs to distance himself from them to win more Israel sceptic swing voters in the general election
Viktória Serdült @viktoriaserdult · 1h 🇭🇺Good evening everyone from Tisza press HQ in Budapest. Polling stations have closed in Hungary, weekend polls have just been published, predicting a huge Tisza victory at 54-55, with Fidesz trailing at 38-40%. Only question is whether far right Mi Hazánk will get to Parliament.
MH looks near certain to get in: they're currently at 6.2%, so they would need to do exceptionally poorly with the remainder of the vote not to get to t%.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
"Literally"?
"Literally" can be a contranym and actually mean "figuratively", but I think he means "actually", figuratively speaking.
No it can't.
It shouldn't. It makes no sense for it to do so. But word usage can shift in unfortunate and fortunate ways, and I think the battle over literally has already been lost.
At least if that is the case hopefully people can also stop being prissy about fewer/less, which in most (not all) cases is not necessary.
You may think that, but that's just you.
Does it ever occur to you that trying to stop language mutating and evolving is pissing in the wind?
We can resist what seem to be stupid changes, it might mutate back. Literal also meaning not literal is a rough one. And abandoning any rules or definitions would be sheer anarchy (or poetry).
But if we act like it is impossible to coin neologisms, invent new interpretations for words that already exist, or insist upon a rigid adherence to victorian era abritray rules on grammar, well, that's just a bit silly.
"No, you cannot do that, it is wrong" is not a compelling argument against a shifting tide of real world usage.
F*ck it, I'll end a sentence with a preposition if I want too. Not least as no-one ever taught me the formal definition of a preposition at school.
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
A Dem President from 2029 would likely be more critical of Israel, a GOP President wouldn't to any significant degree.
Conservative evangelicals are fanatically pro Israel in the USA, even more than US Jews and conservative evangelicals are the GOP core vote now.
But that core is shrinking fast and there’s a whole new cohort of younger republicans who are critical of Israel and some who are violently anti semitic
So Israel’s base of support in the USA is already dwindled on the left and is now briskly dwindling on the right
And imagine this scenario, which is now unfortunately likely. The Iran war continues and it goes bad for the world and for Trump and the GOP. Inflation rockets and gas doubles in price. The midterms are lost big time
Who will republicans blame? Israel. For dragging America into this stupid war - Vance has already been to Jerusalem to shout loudly and angrily at Netanyahu
By 2028 the American right might be even more furious at Israel
23% of Americans are conservative evangelicals and they voted 82% for Trump in 2024, they will remain far more significant to the GOP for at least the next decade or two than younger Republicans given Trump lost most US voters under 40 to Harris.
If the Iran war is going badly it is because Trump is not following Israel enough, sending in ground troops to remove the Iranian regime, so as a result he has a half way house of strikes and blockades which keep oil prices high but the regime still in place.
Conservative evangelicals won't blame Israel and without the conservative evangelical vote Roman Catholic Vance can't get the nomination, even if he needs to distance himself from them to win more Israel sceptic swing voters in the general election
“If the Iran war is going badly it is because Trump is not following Israel enough, sending in ground troops to remove the Iranian regime”
With 15% in Tisza is now forecast to get 125 seats. Comfortably into majority territory, but not into "change the Constitution"
It's moving in that direction though: 128 : 62 : 8 with 25% counted
As it currently stands, Fidesz is due to win just 13 out of 105 constituency seats.
That's a an absolute shellacking.
In Spanish, but you will get the gist...
Lo más interesante de las elecciones de Hungría es el derrumbe absoluto de Orbán en las circunscripciones uninominales (a lo británico/estadounidense). El problema del gerrymandering es que, cuando tu porcentaje de voto cae por debajo de cierto nivel, el colapso es total.
Viktória Serdült @viktoriaserdult · 1h 🇭🇺Good evening everyone from Tisza press HQ in Budapest. Polling stations have closed in Hungary, weekend polls have just been published, predicting a huge Tisza victory at 54-55, with Fidesz trailing at 38-40%. Only question is whether far right Mi Hazánk will get to Parliament.
MH looks near certain to get in: they're currently at 6.2%, so they would need to do exceptionally poorly with the remainder of the vote not to get to t%.
Guardian website still declaring Hungary a close race. Actually it's looking like an arse kicking for Urban, Putin and Vance, too.
How will the USA punish Hungary in that case?
Vance might have known a loss was actually possible, but Trump probably gets told (by Orban) how popular Orban is, and so assume any loss cannot be true.
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
"Literally"?
"Literally" can be a contranym and actually mean "figuratively", but I think he means "actually", figuratively speaking.
No it can't.
It shouldn't. It makes no sense for it to do so. But word usage can shift in unfortunate and fortunate ways, and I think the battle over literally has already been lost.
At least if that is the case hopefully people can also stop being prissy about fewer/less, which in most (not all) cases is not necessary.
You may think that, but that's just you.
Does it ever occur to you that trying to stop language mutating and evolving is pissing in the wind?
We can resist what seem to be stupid changes, it might mutate back. And abandoning any rules or definitions would be sheer anarchy (or poetry).
But if we act like it is impossible to coin neologisms, invent new interpretations for words that already exist, or insist upon a rigid adherence to victorian era abritray rules on grammar, well, that's just a bit silly.
"No, you cannot do that, it is wrong" is not a compelling argument against a shifting tide of real world usage.
F*ck it, I'll end a sentence with a preposition if I want too. Not list as no-one ever taught me the formal definition of a preposition at school.
Especially in a world where irony, sarcasm and multiple meanings for words already exists.
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
A Dem President from 2029 would likely be more critical of Israel, a GOP President wouldn't to any significant degree.
Conservative evangelicals are fanatically pro Israel in the USA, even more than US Jews and conservative evangelicals are the GOP core vote now.
But that core is shrinking fast and there’s a whole new cohort of younger republicans who are critical of Israel and some who are violently anti semitic
So Israel’s base of support in the USA is already dwindled on the left and is now briskly dwindling on the right
And imagine this scenario, which is now unfortunately likely. The Iran war continues and it goes bad for the world and for Trump and the GOP. Inflation rockets and gas doubles in price. The midterms are lost big time
Who will republicans blame? Israel. For dragging America into this stupid war - Vance has already been to Jerusalem to shout loudly and angrily at Netanyahu
By 2028 the American right might be even more furious at Israel
23% of Americans are conservative evangelicals and they voted 82% for Trump in 2024, they will remain far more significant to the GOP for at least the next decade or two than younger Republicans given Trump lost most US voters under 40 to Harris.
If the Iran war is going badly it is because Trump is not following Israel enough, sending in ground troops to remove the Iranian regime, so as a result he has a half way house of strikes and blockades which keep oil prices high but the regime still in place.
Conservative evangelicals won't blame Israel and without the conservative evangelical vote Roman Catholic Vance can't get the nomination, even if he needs to distance himself from them to win more Israel sceptic swing voters in the general election
“If the Iran war is going badly it is because Trump is not following Israel enough, sending in ground troops to remove the Iranian regime”
With 15% in Tisza is now forecast to get 125 seats. Comfortably into majority territory, but not into "change the Constitution"
It's moving in that direction though: 128 : 62 : 8 with 25% counted
As it currently stands, Fidesz is due to win just 13 out of 105 constituency seats.
That's a an absolute shellacking.
In Spanish, but you will get the gist...
Lo más interesante de las elecciones de Hungría es el derrumbe absoluto de Orbán en las circunscripciones uninominales (a lo británico/estadounidense). El problema del gerrymandering es que, cuando tu porcentaje de voto cae por debajo de cierto nivel, el colapso es total.
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
A Dem President from 2029 would likely be more critical of Israel, a GOP President wouldn't to any significant degree.
Conservative evangelicals are fanatically pro Israel in the USA, even more than US Jews and conservative evangelicals are the GOP core vote now.
A significant proportion of MAGA / alt-right is anti-Jew.
Which might explain the hostility to Zelensky.
Although another significant proportion of MAGA / alt-right is anti-Muslim.
Guardian website still declaring Hungary a close race. Actually it's looking like an arse kicking for Urban, Putin and Vance, too.
How will the USA punish Hungary in that case?
Vance might have known a loss was actually possible, but Trump probably gets told (by Orban) how popular Orban is, and so assume any loss cannot be true.
More importantly how dies the UK wing of MAGA react.
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
A Dem President from 2029 would likely be more critical of Israel, a GOP President wouldn't to any significant degree.
Conservative evangelicals are fanatically pro Israel in the USA, even more than US Jews and conservative evangelicals are the GOP core vote now.
But that core is shrinking fast and there’s a whole new cohort of younger republicans who are critical of Israel and some who are violently anti semitic
So Israel’s base of support in the USA is already dwindled on the left and is now briskly dwindling on the right
And imagine this scenario, which is now unfortunately likely. The Iran war continues and it goes bad for the world and for Trump and the GOP. Inflation rockets and gas doubles in price. The midterms are lost big time
Who will republicans blame? Israel. For dragging America into this stupid war - Vance has already been to Jerusalem to shout loudly and angrily at Netanyahu
By 2028 the American right might be even more furious at Israel
23% of Americans are conservative evangelicals and they voted 82% for Trump in 2024, they will remain far more significant to the GOP for at least the next decade or two than younger Republicans given Trump lost most US voters under 40 to Harris.
If the Iran war is going badly it is because Trump is not following Israel enough, sending in ground troops to remove the Iranian regime, so as a result he has a half way house of strikes and blockades which keep oil prices high but the regime still in place.
Conservative evangelicals won't blame Israel and without the conservative evangelical vote Roman Catholic Vance can't get the nomination, even if he needs to distance himself from them to win more Israel sceptic swing voters in the general election
“If the Iran war is going badly it is because Trump is not following Israel enough, sending in ground troops to remove the Iranian regime”
With 15% in Tisza is now forecast to get 125 seats. Comfortably into majority territory, but not into "change the Constitution"
It's moving in that direction though: 128 : 62 : 8 with 25% counted
As it currently stands, Fidesz is due to win just 13 out of 105 constituency seats.
That's a an absolute shellacking.
In Spanish, but you will get the gist...
Lo más interesante de las elecciones de Hungría es el derrumbe absoluto de Orbán en las circunscripciones uninominales (a lo británico/estadounidense). El problema del gerrymandering es que, cuando tu porcentaje de voto cae por debajo de cierto nivel, el colapso es total.
With 15% in Tisza is now forecast to get 125 seats. Comfortably into majority territory, but not into "change the Constitution"
It's moving in that direction though: 128 : 62 : 8 with 25% counted
As it currently stands, Fidesz is due to win just 13 out of 105 constituency seats.
That's a an absolute shellacking.
In Spanish, but you will get the gist...
Lo más interesante de las elecciones de Hungría es el derrumbe absoluto de Orbán en las circunscripciones uninominales (a lo británico/estadounidense). El problema del gerrymandering es que, cuando tu porcentaje de voto cae por debajo de cierto nivel, el colapso es total.
With 15% in Tisza is now forecast to get 125 seats. Comfortably into majority territory, but not into "change the Constitution"
It's moving in that direction though: 128 : 62 : 8 with 25% counted
As it currently stands, Fidesz is due to win just 13 out of 105 constituency seats.
That's a an absolute shellacking.
In Spanish, but you will get the gist...
Lo más interesante de las elecciones de Hungría es el derrumbe absoluto de Orbán en las circunscripciones uninominales (a lo británico/estadounidense). El problema del gerrymandering es que, cuando tu porcentaje de voto cae por debajo de cierto nivel, el colapso es total.
Guardian website still declaring Hungary a close race. Actually it's looking like an arse kicking for Urban, Putin and Vance, too.
How will the USA punish Hungary in that case?
Vance might have known a loss was actually possible, but Trump probably gets told (by Orban) how popular Orban is, and so assume any loss cannot be true.
More importantly how dies the UK wing of MAGA react.
Nige and Kemi will be devastated.
They'll feel more comfortable not commenting or even criticising Orban, since it is not directly a criticism of Trump even if Trump backed him, so he won't get as mad.
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
A Dem President from 2029 would likely be more critical of Israel, a GOP President wouldn't to any significant degree.
Conservative evangelicals are fanatically pro Israel in the USA, even more than US Jews and conservative evangelicals are the GOP core vote now.
But that core is shrinking fast and there’s a whole new cohort of younger republicans who are critical of Israel and some who are violently anti semitic
So Israel’s base of support in the USA is already dwindled on the left and is now briskly dwindling on the right
And imagine this scenario, which is now unfortunately likely. The Iran war continues and it goes bad for the world and for Trump and the GOP. Inflation rockets and gas doubles in price. The midterms are lost big time
Who will republicans blame? Israel. For dragging America into this stupid war - Vance has already been to Jerusalem to shout loudly and angrily at Netanyahu
By 2028 the American right might be even more furious at Israel
23% of Americans are conservative evangelicals and they voted 82% for Trump in 2024, they will remain far more significant to the GOP for at least the next decade or two than younger Republicans given Trump lost most US voters under 40 to Harris.
If the Iran war is going badly it is because Trump is not following Israel enough, sending in ground troops to remove the Iranian regime, so as a result he has a half way house of strikes and blockades which keep oil prices high but the regime still in place.
Conservative evangelicals won't blame Israel and without the conservative evangelical vote Roman Catholic Vance can't get the GOP nomination, even if he needs to distance himself from them to win more Israel sceptic swing voters in the general election
People might love God.
But they love being able to afford to fill up their pick-up truck.
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
A Dem President from 2029 would likely be more critical of Israel, a GOP President wouldn't to any significant degree.
Conservative evangelicals are fanatically pro Israel in the USA, even more than US Jews and conservative evangelicals are the GOP core vote now.
A significant proportion of MAGA / alt-right is anti-Jew.
Yes, the most vocal anti-Trump voices on the right appear to be of that ilk a lot of the time. I guess there's at least one hatred old enough and strong that it can overcome Trump worship.
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
A Dem President from 2029 would likely be more critical of Israel, a GOP President wouldn't to any significant degree.
Conservative evangelicals are fanatically pro Israel in the USA, even more than US Jews and conservative evangelicals are the GOP core vote now.
But that core is shrinking fast and there’s a whole new cohort of younger republicans who are critical of Israel and some who are violently anti semitic
So Israel’s base of support in the USA is already dwindled on the left and is now briskly dwindling on the right
And imagine this scenario, which is now unfortunately likely. The Iran war continues and it goes bad for the world and for Trump and the GOP. Inflation rockets and gas doubles in price. The midterms are lost big time
Who will republicans blame? Israel. For dragging America into this stupid war - Vance has already been to Jerusalem to shout loudly and angrily at Netanyahu
By 2028 the American right might be even more furious at Israel
23% of Americans are conservative evangelicals and they voted 82% for Trump in 2024, they will remain far more significant to the GOP for at least the next decade or two than younger Republicans given Trump lost most US voters under 40 to Harris.
If the Iran war is going badly it is because Trump is not following Israel enough, sending in ground troops to remove the Iranian regime, so as a result he has a half way house of strikes and blockades which keep oil prices high but the regime still in place.
Conservative evangelicals won't blame Israel and without the conservative evangelical vote Roman Catholic Vance can't get the GOP nomination, even if he needs to distance himself from them to win more Israel sceptic swing voters in the general election
People might love God.
But they love being able to afford to fill up their pick-up truck.
God wants me to be able to rev my engine, alright?
How does Trump possibly hope to win the midterms if gas is ninety five dollars a pint and US inflation hits 10%?
He can’t. He and the GOP will be crushed. He’s probably fucked it already
Plus, I predict the next POTUS - whether Dem or Rep - will be quite seriously critical of Israel, indeed they might cut Israel adrift. The polling all points that way, and it can’t be ignored forever. The Dems are already anti Israel in large part and someone like Vance, an isolationist, will think “fuck Israel”
So this war is a catastrophe for Jerusalem as well
A Dem President from 2029 would likely be more critical of Israel, a GOP President wouldn't to any significant degree.
Conservative evangelicals are fanatically pro Israel in the USA, even more than US Jews and conservative evangelicals are the GOP core vote now.
But that core is shrinking fast and there’s a whole new cohort of younger republicans who are critical of Israel and some who are violently anti semitic
So Israel’s base of support in the USA is already dwindled on the left and is now briskly dwindling on the right
And imagine this scenario, which is now unfortunately likely. The Iran war continues and it goes bad for the world and for Trump and the GOP. Inflation rockets and gas doubles in price. The midterms are lost big time
Who will republicans blame? Israel. For dragging America into this stupid war - Vance has already been to Jerusalem to shout loudly and angrily at Netanyahu
By 2028 the American right might be even more furious at Israel
23% of Americans are conservative evangelicals and they voted 82% for Trump in 2024, they will remain far more significant to the GOP for at least the next decade or two than younger Republicans given Trump lost most US voters under 40 to Harris.
If the Iran war is going badly it is because Trump is not following Israel enough, sending in ground troops to remove the Iranian regime, so as a result he has a half way house of strikes and blockades which keep oil prices high but the regime still in place.
Conservative evangelicals won't blame Israel and without the conservative evangelical vote Roman Catholic Vance can't get the GOP nomination, even if he needs to distance himself from them to win more Israel sceptic swing voters in the general election
People might love God.
But they love being able to afford to fill up their pick-up truck.
This may be true. Probably is.
I have a question though. What are the pick up trucks being filled up with? I can see that it was the model in the past, but now?
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Turn GE in to a closer integration with Europe Poll
Watch Reform and Tories eat each other apart
Watch Tories literally implode.
Put real pressure on Green vote, their core vote will want it but will realise only a Labour led Government can deliver it.
Similar pressure on LDs
By 2029 seriously possible could be 60 : 40 in favour of closer ntegration.
Even higher if Trump stops democratic process in US
"Literally"?
"Literally" can be a contranym and actually mean "figuratively", but I think he means "actually", figuratively speaking.
No it can't.
The English language is an evolving thing that changes as people use it differently. We lost the battle on this one. Literally is now often used simply as an indicator of emphasis, rather than for its prior, literal, meaning.
Watch the vid attached to this and you know straight away why this academic with his fuck off palatial kitchen slugging champagne lost to a plumber in south manchester.
Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ A life moment I will never forget. All I’ve had for two weeks is endless criticism from the establishment.
But last night, we came back from a quiet dinner out and the news came through…
Suicide of a Nation is not just in the Sunday Times bestseller list for the second week running.
Nick Thorpe Central Europe correspondent, in Budapest.
“Just 21.5% of the vote has been counted so far, but as it stands, the far-right Our Homeland party is hovering close to the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. It looks set to be the only minor party in contention for a seat, though it massively trails the two main parties.
The race between Fidesz and Tisza looks close, with only 3 or 4% dividing them - Fidesz leading in some places, Tisza in others.
The count has been fastest in mostly western Hungarian districts.”
Is he drunk ? What a load of nonsense . It’s nowhere near close .
Comments
Conservative evangelicals are fanatically pro Israel in the USA, even more than US Jews and conservative evangelicals are the GOP core vote now.
As I have it, there is currently a major dispute between China and Panama, because of the way Panama chucked Hutchison out of the Panama Canal, and China are targeting Panama-flagged vessels with petty bureaucracy.
That's from shipping reporting specialists. Perhaps they have not moved yet.
eg https://www.reuters.com/world/china/panama-asks-china-respect-after-ship-detentions-tied-ports-ruling-2026-04-08/.
https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026?filter=orszagos
The classic is that you set up a company per tanker. The company is based in a different country to the flag on the tanker. The company owns the tanker, but you load it up with debt. Both countries have essentially no rules on employment, safety etc. Just give them a fee.
So if there are any accidents, all people can do is sue a company that is bankrupt - it probably just lost its only asset - in places where a lawsuit won't work.
That company is owned by another company. Depending how... convoluted your finances are, that leads to a chains of ownership. Which is very. very multinational.
So you have complete immunity to liability, you can pay the crew starvation wages and tax is optional.
What's not to like?
And we're not going to have another lockdown. Ignore the hysteria.
So Israel’s base of support in the USA is already dwindled on the left and is now briskly dwindling on the right
And imagine this scenario, which is now unfortunately likely. The Iran war continues and it goes bad for the world and for Trump and the GOP. Inflation rockets and gas doubles in price. The midterms are lost big time
Who will republicans blame? Israel. For dragging America into this stupid war - Vance has already been to Jerusalem to shout loudly and angrily at Netanyahu
By 2028 the American right might be even more furious at Israel
The guy is reverse midas.
That's a an absolute shellacking.
Edit: Blimey. The camera panned out and it really is an entire pack of males arguing.
I’ve been back since and the atmos was notably worse
At least if that is the case hopefully people can also stop being prissy about fewer/less, which in most (not all) cases is not necessary.
Because of the way that the Flag Countries are used to get round regulations, laws and any semblance of morality, they get given a shove every now and again.
This generally goes nowhere.
Remember the P&O Ferry thing?
Oooooh!
Maybe he should have had a career in the church instead.
Wow.
Land of Hope and Glory is better.
That was our experience as well
The other scandal that is brewing is now China doing super sized sea fishing around the world where the fishermen stay out for months / years at a time, and a mega mothership supplies them. They are often fishing in territorial waters of other countries, but nobody can stop them. And the guys on the smaller boats they don't have much of a choice when they go home.
Linguistic rules and usage change all the time, that's fact considering we don't speak like Shakespeare or Chaucer, so people cannot pretend it will remain static forever. Whether certain ones have in fact changed we will only know with the passage of time.
I'm fairly confident that the mere fact that so many people misuse literally is a sign in itself I am right in this prediction.
Viktória Serdült
@viktoriaserdult
·
1h
🇭🇺Good evening everyone from Tisza press HQ in Budapest. Polling stations have closed in Hungary, weekend polls have just been published, predicting a huge Tisza victory at 54-55, with Fidesz trailing at 38-40%. Only question is whether far right Mi Hazánk will get to Parliament.
https://x.com/viktoriaserdult
Tisza is now at 132.
That's almost supermajority level.
Fidasz leading in just 11 of 105 constituencies.
So either a good or a great result. Barring any surprises.
"I knew Jack Kennedy. You are no Jack Kennedy"
etc
Most campaigns are not the 2017 GE, and don't shift things massively.
Though perhaps it will be like our parliament. The system is terrible until you win, at which point it becomes the only sensible way to do things.
In a country led by Orban, what kind of freaks get labelled as far right?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Opinion_polling_and_forecasts
If the Iran war is going badly it is because Trump is not following Israel enough, sending in ground troops to remove the Iranian regime, so as a result he has a half way house of strikes and blockades which keep oil prices high but the regime still in place.
Conservative evangelicals won't blame Israel and without the conservative evangelical vote Roman Catholic Vance can't get the GOP nomination, even if he needs to distance himself from them to win more Israel sceptic swing voters in the general election
Burns having a shocker though.
But if we act like it is impossible to coin neologisms, invent new interpretations for words that already exist, or insist upon a rigid adherence to victorian era abritray rules on grammar, well, that's just a bit silly.
"No, you cannot do that, it is wrong" is not a compelling argument against a shifting tide of real world usage.
F*ck it, I'll end a sentence with a preposition if I want too. Not least as no-one ever taught me the formal definition of a preposition at school.
"I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience."
Actually it's looking like an arse kicking for Urban, Putin and Vance, too.
Classic @HYUFD
I think we can conclude that Orban has lost the election.
Lo más interesante de las elecciones de Hungría es el derrumbe absoluto de Orbán en las circunscripciones uninominales (a lo británico/estadounidense). El problema del gerrymandering es que, cuando tu porcentaje de voto cae por debajo de cierto nivel, el colapso es total.
https://bsky.app/profile/vicvent.bsky.social/post/3mjcyn3iq322n
On my phone. Sorry.
Vance might have known a loss was actually possible, but Trump probably gets told (by Orban) how popular Orban is, and so assume any loss cannot be true.
After 22% of the vote counted, they have 9 votes.
That's 9 votes - across Hungary.
EDIT: After 37% - still 9.
Back the field.
Which might explain the hostility to Zelensky.
Although another significant proportion of MAGA / alt-right is anti-Muslim.
Nige and Kemi will be devastated.
Scorchio.
InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
·
24m
🇭🇺 Hungary Parliament - Results
21.5% reported
🟦 Tisza (Magyar): 49.7%
🟥 Fidesz (Orbán): 42.2%
——
Projected seats
🟦 Tisza (Magyar): 128 seats
🟥 Fidesz (Orbán): 62 seats
100 seats needed for a Majority.
133 seats needed for Supermajority.
Projection up to 135, above the 133 required for the first time.
But they love being able to afford to fill up their pick-up truck.
45.71% counted
I have a question though. What are the pick up trucks being filled up with? I can see that it was the model in the past, but now?
Matt Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
A life moment I will never forget. All I’ve had for two weeks is endless criticism from the establishment.
But last night, we came back from a quiet dinner out and the news came through…
Suicide of a Nation is not just in the Sunday Times bestseller list for the second week running.
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/2043394333814960626
Nick Thorpe Central Europe correspondent, in Budapest.
“Just 21.5% of the vote has been counted so far, but as it stands, the far-right Our Homeland party is hovering close to the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.
It looks set to be the only minor party in contention for a seat, though it massively trails the two main parties.
The race between Fidesz and Tisza looks close, with only 3 or 4% dividing them - Fidesz leading in some places, Tisza in others.
The count has been fastest in mostly western Hungarian districts.”
Is he drunk ? What a load of nonsense . It’s nowhere near close .
I would have assumed that is bad news. But the trend of each update seems to be positive, so not sure how to reconcile that?