Sergio just took a chunk out of the tee box at No. 2, smashed the water cooler, broke the head off his driver. now he's carrying Jon Rahm's bag down the fairway. quite the start....
I am sure many a Sunday golfer can relate.
I used to play cricket with a guy who wasn't a very good batter, but seemed to lose his shit every week when he got out early. He must have gone through 10+ bats a year. His day job, top cancer surgeon.
Looking at the Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county which had the highest Fidesz share in 2022 .
Turnout is the second lowest in the country overall . But if you look at the district voting , the constituency list has 6 districts . These were all won by Fidesz in 2022 . The closest of those was district 1 which is the main city Nyíregyháza.
The overall county turnout is 60.33% however the turnout in that district is 67.73% .
So it’s clear that urban areas are coming out to vote . Tisza does need though to turnout more voters in smaller towns aswell .
I’ll see what I can find there . Overall though very encouraging news for those wanting rid of Orban .
Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways
I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes
Narince, Emir, Sultaniye
And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine
You have heard of Sultaniye grapes before and have probably eaten them.
They have two English names: Thompson seedless for the fresh, edible version as commonly seen in your local supermarket; and Sultana for the dried version.
The Turks make a neutral but crisp wine with them, and very nice it is too.
Could you suggest where we can get some to try? Need something to while away the time until the 25th.
Turkish wine? Hard to get decent stuff in English shops, or indeed ethnic shops (unlike Georgian wines which turn up increasingly in Eastern European grocers). Turkish restaurants sell it but they get supplied by wholesalers. And the occasional bottle you’ll get in a Turkish food shop is likely to be overpriced and uninspiring. Best bet by far is to order online from a specialist.
Had some Georgian wine before. A good robust red to go with a steak.
Armenian wine is a good option too.
I’ve had it before, it’s really nice
It varies. I’ve been there. It can be very good it can also be really really… weird
I’ve actually been to the oldest “winery” in the world - ie the place with the oldest evidence of wine making anywhere. It’s a cave in southern Armenia in a valley known for its wine making even now
Even better you can buy a bottle of wine made from the exact same primitive grape they used back then. It really does have this odd archaic flavour. Like drinking the late Stone Age
What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.
Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.
I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.
Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
It fucks everyone from India to Bangladesh to Japan & SK. This is America alienating every SEasian ally they need against China. China a country with 9 months of oil in reserve. How much oil do we hold? How much jet fuel?
Who benefits from Iran controlling the Strait? There's a theory doing the rounds that the Gulf states wouldn't accept the Iran toll anyway and would instead wait for prices to go up and force the world's hand to act.
Well lets blockade it then! And when they start starving in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan what is going to happen next? You know we import near 50% of our calories, yes?
America is done and we should detach ourselves from the pariah states that inflicted this catastrophe on the world.
Are you happy with Iran having control of the Strait of Hormuz? Do you think that is a situation that can be maintained permanently? What is needed is an international agreement to get it fully opened and a flushing out of those countries (Russia, China?) who are a roadblock to that.
Might be confirmation bias but a lot of drivers sticking to 50mph on the motorway network in the central belt.
Such a weird crisis. Slowly edging into it.
If it’s the M8 between Newhouse and Whitburn, it’s been happening for years. Usually a HGV at 50mph attempting to pass another HGV at 49 mph, with a two mile tailback behind it.
M77, and it’s family-sized cars cruising in the slow lane. I guess Transport Scotland will have good data available on whether habits are changing.
Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways
I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes
Narince, Emir, Sultaniye
And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine
You have heard of Sultaniye grapes before and have probably eaten them.
They have two English names: Thompson seedless for the fresh, edible version as commonly seen in your local supermarket; and Sultana for the dried version.
The Turks make a neutral but crisp wine with them, and very nice it is too.
Could you suggest where we can get some to try? Need something to while away the time until the 25th.
Turkish wine? Hard to get decent stuff in English shops, or indeed ethnic shops (unlike Georgian wines which turn up increasingly in Eastern European grocers). Turkish restaurants sell it but they get supplied by wholesalers. And the occasional bottle you’ll get in a Turkish food shop is likely to be overpriced and uninspiring. Best bet by far is to order online from a specialist.
Had some Georgian wine before. A good robust red to go with a steak.
Armenian wine is a good option too.
I’ve had it before, it’s really nice
It varies. I’ve been there. It can be very good it can also be really really… weird
I’ve actually been to the oldest “winery” in the world - ie the place with the oldest evidence of wine making anywhere. It’s a cave in southern Armenia in a valley known for its wine making even now
Even better you can buy a bottle of wine made from the exact same primitive grape they used back then. It really does have this odd archaic flavour. Like drinking the late Stone Age
Presumably if Orban does get the boot Trump and Vance will regard this as fake news and, no doubt, yet another grievance against Europe. We can only hope that the vote is reasonably fair and that is indeed the outcome.
If Trump gets angry about countries cutting deals with Iran to allow their own tankers through the straits, maybe he will start enforcing the blockade instead to make it all or nothing.
"It’s called all in, and all out... We think that numerous countries are going to be helping us with this also, but we’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like, and not people that they don’t like or whatever it is. It’s going to be all or none."
Starmer's Coalition of the "not very willing to be involved" will be right behind you Donald...
Coalition of the "fine, we'll send a single boat and a senior officer as a token gesture, jeez"
We could send a boat crewed with all the superfluous admirals.
I assume most haven't been on a boat in years, I doubt they'd know port from starboard.
Looking at the Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county which had the highest Fidesz share in 2022 .
Turnout is the second lowest in the country overall . But if you look at the district voting , the constituency list has 6 districts . These were all won by Fidesz in 2022 . The closest of those was district 1 which is the main city Nyíregyháza.
The overall county turnout is 60.33% however the turnout in that district is 67.73% .
So it’s clear that urban areas are coming out to vote . Tisza does need though to turnout more voters in smaller towns aswell .
I’ll see what I can find there . Overall though very encouraging news for those wanting rid of Orban .
Any idea of how quick the Hungarians are with their counting?
Might be confirmation bias but a lot of drivers sticking to 50mph on the motorway network in the central belt.
Such a weird crisis. Slowly edging into it.
If it’s the M8 between Newhouse and Whitburn, it’s been happening for years. Usually a HGV at 50mph attempting to pass another HGV at 49 mph, with a two mile tailback behind it.
M77, and it’s family-sized cars cruising in the slow lane. I guess Transport Scotland will have good data available on whether habits are changing.
I was out earlier, and it definitely felt the roads were quieter and slower than normal around Meadowhall in Sheffield.
What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.
Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.
I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.
Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
It fucks everyone from India to Bangladesh to Japan & SK. This is America alienating every SEasian ally they need against China. China a country with 9 months of oil in reserve. How much oil do we hold? How much jet fuel?
Who benefits from Iran controlling the Strait? There's a theory doing the rounds that the Gulf states wouldn't accept the Iran toll anyway and would instead wait for prices to go up and force the world's hand to act.
Well lets blockade it then! And when they start starving in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan what is going to happen next? You know we import near 50% of our calories, yes?
America is done and we should detach ourselves from the pariah states that inflicted this catastrophe on the world.
Are you happy with Iran having control of the Strait of Hormuz? Do you think that is a situation that can be maintained permanently? What is needed is an international agreement to get it fully opened and a flushing out of those countries (Russia, China?) who are a roadblock to that.
I predict a quick shift from "Iran blockading Hormuz is great because it humiliates Trump" to "Trump blockading Hormuz is wicked because of all the people who will die".
What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.
Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.
I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.
Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
This idea is frowned upon by some here who believe it might upset the Chinese.
I frown upon the whole shambles we find ourselves in now.
It’s not like the Chinese economy is linked into the rest of the world, is it?
We’re learning the hard lesson than boring things like trade and international conventions on free passage are, actually, quite important. Might is right only really works when slaughtering civilian populations.
The significant silver lining is that the Chinese will now speed run renewables and EVs even faster than they are already.
What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.
Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.
I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.
Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
It fucks everyone from India to Bangladesh to Japan & SK. This is America alienating every SEasian ally they need against China. China a country with 9 months of oil in reserve. How much oil do we hold? How much jet fuel?
Who benefits from Iran controlling the Strait? There's a theory doing the rounds that the Gulf states wouldn't accept the Iran toll anyway and would instead wait for prices to go up and force the world's hand to act.
Well lets blockade it then! And when they start starving in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan what is going to happen next? You know we import near 50% of our calories, yes?
America is done and we should detach ourselves from the pariah states that inflicted this catastrophe on the world.
Iran hasn't opened the Strait anyway, so there's not a huge amount lost by blockading what Iran is permitting passage to. And I guess we'll see how Iran reacts.
So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.
And if it doesn't stop?
Boarded ?
I'm not entirely sure that the Chinese government would be chill with that.
So what would they do ?
Send warships to escort the tankers.
Warships are not a solution to modern drones - merely an extra target..
It’s a signal of intent.
The Chinese shouldn’t take it lying down. That’s my point and the US are proposing a naval blockade.
Joking aside it's not the worst strategy.
In my view Iran is overplaying their hand. If they are blocking the Strait - international water - there's no reason for US can't do the same.
That means no more toll income and significantly reduced oil income (none by sea, I'm not sure what pipelines they have).
It's certainly a better response than the previous 'end of civilisation genocide' option that Trump floated before his deadline.
I doubt the Iranian regime gives a tinker's cuss about a bit of oil revenue. Yes, allow a few of their friends' tankers through for the divisiveness, but the primary objective is to trash the world economy and have everyone blame it on Trump and Israel. So far they've been playing a blinder.
Mind you, they are playing the tactical equivalent of Spurs.
Trump has only gone and bone spursed it.
Joking aside, I wonder if Trump’s extreme aversion to military service is connected to his dearth of strategic thinking? Even Gefreiter Hitler had a plan which worked for a while, until it didn’t.
What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.
Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.
I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.
Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
It fucks everyone from India to Bangladesh to Japan & SK. This is America alienating every SEasian ally they need against China. China a country with 9 months of oil in reserve. How much oil do we hold? How much jet fuel?
Who benefits from Iran controlling the Strait? There's a theory doing the rounds that the Gulf states wouldn't accept the Iran toll anyway and would instead wait for prices to go up and force the world's hand to act.
Well lets blockade it then! And when they start starving in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan what is going to happen next? You know we import near 50% of our calories, yes?
America is done and we should detach ourselves from the pariah states that inflicted this catastrophe on the world.
Are you happy with Iran having control of the Strait of Hormuz? Do you think that is a situation that can be maintained permanently? What is needed is an international agreement to get it fully opened and a flushing out of those countries (Russia, China?) who are a roadblock to that.
I predict a quick shift from "Iran blockading Hormuz is great because it humiliates Trump" to "Trump blockading Hormuz is wicked because of all the people who will die".
Neither is good, but my immediate reaction would be I'm unclear how this will move the dial that much on resolving things in a permanent way, but for a Trump action it is far from the craziest he's ever done.
What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.
Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.
I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.
Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
This idea is frowned upon by some here who believe it might upset the Chinese.
I frown upon the whole shambles we find ourselves in now.
It’s not like the Chinese economy is linked into the rest of the world, is it?
We’re learning the hard lesson than boring things like trade and international conventions on free passage are, actually, quite important. Might is right only really works when slaughtering civilian populations.
The significant silver lining is that the Chinese will now speed run renewables and EVs even faster than they are already.
The March motor trade sales figures in Ireland show a chunky increase in EV sales. Something to keep an eye on.
Spursy's they are going down aren't they, for real.
I think the following is going to happen.
Spurs avoid relegation and Arsenal win nothing, which means Forest get relegated but win the Europa League and qualify for next season's Champions League.
Forest's fixture's next season will be something like this
Don Tzu: Break an enemy blockade by blockading their blockade.
By all means pour shit on Trump when he's threatening armageddon, but the opposition to what is a simple, sensible and obvious idea - not to mention vital for any sort of negotiation, undermines the anti-Trump side greatly. Proves it's just reflexive. The response would clearly be equally withering if Trump spoke positively about motherhood and apple pie.
Looking at the Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county which had the highest Fidesz share in 2022 .
Turnout is the second lowest in the country overall . But if you look at the district voting , the constituency list has 6 districts . These were all won by Fidesz in 2022 . The closest of those was district 1 which is the main city Nyíregyháza.
The overall county turnout is 60.33% however the turnout in that district is 67.73% .
So it’s clear that urban areas are coming out to vote . Tisza does need though to turnout more voters in smaller towns aswell .
I’ll see what I can find there . Overall though very encouraging news for those wanting rid of Orban .
Any idea of how quick the Hungarians are with their counting?
They’re normally quick and we do get exit polls aswell .
What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.
Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.
I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.
Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
It fucks everyone from India to Bangladesh to Japan & SK. This is America alienating every SEasian ally they need against China. China a country with 9 months of oil in reserve. How much oil do we hold? How much jet fuel?
Who benefits from Iran controlling the Strait? There's a theory doing the rounds that the Gulf states wouldn't accept the Iran toll anyway and would instead wait for prices to go up and force the world's hand to act.
Well lets blockade it then! And when they start starving in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan what is going to happen next? You know we import near 50% of our calories, yes?
America is done and we should detach ourselves from the pariah states that inflicted this catastrophe on the world.
Are you happy with Iran having control of the Strait of Hormuz? Do you think that is a situation that can be maintained permanently? What is needed is an international agreement to get it fully opened and a flushing out of those countries (Russia, China?) who are a roadblock to that.
I predict a quick shift from "Iran blockading Hormuz is great because it humiliates Trump" to "Trump blockading Hormuz is wicked because of all the people who will die".
Do you think Trump has handled the situation well?
Don Tzu: Break an enemy blockade by blockading their blockade.
By all means pour shit on Trump when he's threatening armageddon, but the opposition to what is a simple, sensible and obvious idea - not to mention vital for any sort of negotiation, undermines the anti-Trump side greatly. Proves it's just reflexive. The response would clearly be equally withering if Trump spoke positively about motherhood and apple pie.
I cannot take him and Bibi seriously considering they didn't factor in that as the result of bombing Iran the Iranians would blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
We are talking Liz Truss levels of IQ from the leaders of America and Israel.
Looking at the Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county which had the highest Fidesz share in 2022 .
Turnout is the second lowest in the country overall . But if you look at the district voting , the constituency list has 6 districts . These were all won by Fidesz in 2022 . The closest of those was district 1 which is the main city Nyíregyháza.
The overall county turnout is 60.33% however the turnout in that district is 67.73% .
So it’s clear that urban areas are coming out to vote . Tisza does need though to turnout more voters in smaller towns aswell .
I’ll see what I can find there . Overall though very encouraging news for those wanting rid of Orban .
Any idea of how quick the Hungarians are with their counting?
They’re normally quick and we do get exit polls aswell .
Turnout looks to be incredible .
It’s going to smash the previous record .
As much as I think Orban is a shit, is there a particular reason why the public might have finally had enough of him? What about the last 4 years pushed them beyond breaking, or is it just that the new opposition leader is more Orbany (the bits people liked) than previously on offer?
Don Tzu: Break an enemy blockade by blockading their blockade.
By all means pour shit on Trump when he's threatening armageddon, but the opposition to what is a simple, sensible and obvious idea - not to mention vital for any sort of negotiation, undermines the anti-Trump side greatly. Proves it's just reflexive. The response would clearly be equally withering if Trump spoke positively about motherhood and apple pie.
If it's so simple, sensible and obvious why didn't he do it from the start?
Don Tzu: Break an enemy blockade by blockading their blockade.
By all means pour shit on Trump when he's threatening armageddon, but the opposition to what is a simple, sensible and obvious idea - not to mention vital for any sort of negotiation, undermines the anti-Trump side greatly. Proves it's just reflexive. The response would clearly be equally withering if Trump spoke positively about motherhood and apple pie.
I cannot take him and Bibi seriously considering they didn't factor in that as the result of bombing Iran the Iranians would blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
We are talking Liz Truss levels of IQ from the leaders of America and Israel.
I agree, it was extremely stupid.
However, we are where we are. This action was sensible a week ago (when Trump wasn't doing it), it is still sensible now. Whether it will make the difference, who knows, but it does equalise the negotiations at least somewhat.
Don Tzu: Break an enemy blockade by blockading their blockade.
By all means pour shit on Trump when he's threatening armageddon, but the opposition to what is a simple, sensible and obvious idea - not to mention vital for any sort of negotiation, undermines the anti-Trump side greatly. Proves it's just reflexive. The response would clearly be equally withering if Trump spoke positively about motherhood and apple pie.
Have stayed many times in Gelert House, next to Glaslyn Ices/Pizza and almost opposite the Tanronnen Inn. Playing in the river, jumping off the bridge or floating downstream in cheap dinghies, remembering to get out before the hairier bits of the Aber Glaslyn Pass...
(Well, almost all. If Czar Vladimir Putin is celebrating it today, I hope his disguise slips, in public, so people can see his horns and cloven hooves.)
Looking at the Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county which had the highest Fidesz share in 2022 .
Turnout is the second lowest in the country overall . But if you look at the district voting , the constituency list has 6 districts . These were all won by Fidesz in 2022 . The closest of those was district 1 which is the main city Nyíregyháza.
The overall county turnout is 60.33% however the turnout in that district is 67.73% .
So it’s clear that urban areas are coming out to vote . Tisza does need though to turnout more voters in smaller towns aswell .
I’ll see what I can find there . Overall though very encouraging news for those wanting rid of Orban .
Any idea of how quick the Hungarians are with their counting?
They’re normally quick and we do get exit polls aswell .
Turnout looks to be incredible .
It’s going to smash the previous record .
As much as I think Orban is a shit, is there a particular reason why the public might have finally had enough of him? What about the last 4 years pushed them beyond breaking, or is it just that the new opposition leader is more Orbany (the bits people liked) than previously on offer?
Some voters overlooked the corruption and dismantling of democracy when the economy was doing well . The economy is struggling now . The cost of living has been a big issue in this election . There’s also polling which showed Hungarians wanted a better relationship with the EU so another factor . Magyar is also more likely to get cross over voters from Fidesz .
What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.
Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.
I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.
Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
It fucks everyone from India to Bangladesh to Japan & SK. This is America alienating every SEasian ally they need against China. China a country with 9 months of oil in reserve. How much oil do we hold? How much jet fuel?
Who benefits from Iran controlling the Strait? There's a theory doing the rounds that the Gulf states wouldn't accept the Iran toll anyway and would instead wait for prices to go up and force the world's hand to act.
Well lets blockade it then! And when they start starving in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan what is going to happen next? You know we import near 50% of our calories, yes?
America is done and we should detach ourselves from the pariah states that inflicted this catastrophe on the world.
Are you happy with Iran having control of the Strait of Hormuz? Do you think that is a situation that can be maintained permanently? What is needed is an international agreement to get it fully opened and a flushing out of those countries (Russia, China?) who are a roadblock to that.
The deeper USA/Israel dig this hole the more countries will start to detach from their orbit. You think the rest of the world don't understand who started this conflict? And you actually think they might join Don in trying to unfuck it?
Its fucking hilarious that America is destroying its strategic alliances because of a small, hyper-belligerent, mess of a country won't stop bombing its neighbours.
Am i happy, no, not that it matters, This is going to push us into a depression and worsen my future but 90% of the world will have to grasp the even shittier end of the stick. And in a years time Iran will still control the strait.
Don Tzu: Break an enemy blockade by blockading their blockade.
By all means pour shit on Trump when he's threatening armageddon, but the opposition to what is a simple, sensible and obvious idea - not to mention vital for any sort of negotiation, undermines the anti-Trump side greatly. Proves it's just reflexive. The response would clearly be equally withering if Trump spoke positively about motherhood and apple pie.
The slight flaw in your logic is that by tomorrow he is likely be threatening to nuke them again. Your error is believing a single thing he says. He's unhinged.
So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.
And if it doesn't stop?
Boarded ?
I'm not entirely sure that the Chinese government would be chill with that.
So what would they do ?
Send warships to escort the tankers.
Warships are not a solution to modern drones - merely an extra target..
It’s a signal of intent.
The Chinese shouldn’t take it lying down. That’s my point and the US are proposing a naval blockade.
Joking aside it's not the worst strategy.
In my view Iran is overplaying their hand. If they are blocking the Strait - international water - there's no reason for US can't do the same.
That means no more toll income and significantly reduced oil income (none by sea, I'm not sure what pipelines they have).
It's certainly a better response than the previous 'end of civilisation genocide' option that Trump floated before his deadline.
It's certainly a better response than armageddon.
But if Iran decides to sit it out, and they will, what next?
Soaring oil prices, stock markets collapse, President Xi plays a strategic move, MAGA in tatters.
I don't know if there's a better outcome for the world now than accepting Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz and paying them a toll until pipelines bypassing the Strait can be built.
If there isn't, then Trump's blockade is a waste of time and will further diminish the US. If there is, then Trump's blockade might be the best way to get us to that better outcome. It's probably better than lobbing some more bombs at Tehran, or taking Kharg island.
A lot of people are comfortable making very confident predictions which seems like it's not been warranted by events. I'm not confident in making any predictions about this at all.
Looking at the Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county which had the highest Fidesz share in 2022 .
Turnout is the second lowest in the country overall . But if you look at the district voting , the constituency list has 6 districts . These were all won by Fidesz in 2022 . The closest of those was district 1 which is the main city Nyíregyháza.
The overall county turnout is 60.33% however the turnout in that district is 67.73% .
So it’s clear that urban areas are coming out to vote . Tisza does need though to turnout more voters in smaller towns aswell .
I’ll see what I can find there . Overall though very encouraging news for those wanting rid of Orban .
Any idea of how quick the Hungarians are with their counting?
They’re normally quick and we do get exit polls aswell .
Turnout looks to be incredible .
It’s going to smash the previous record .
As much as I think Orban is a shit, is there a particular reason why the public might have finally had enough of him? What about the last 4 years pushed them beyond breaking, or is it just that the new opposition leader is more Orbany (the bits people liked) than previously on offer?
Is suspect most Hungarians don’t like Putin’s Russia, so don’t support a leader who does.
Don Tzu: Break an enemy blockade by blockading their blockade.
By all means pour shit on Trump when he's threatening armageddon, but the opposition to what is a simple, sensible and obvious idea - not to mention vital for any sort of negotiation, undermines the anti-Trump side greatly. Proves it's just reflexive. The response would clearly be equally withering if Trump spoke positively about motherhood and apple pie.
Who will blink first? TACO Trump or Xi?
Trump but that’s based on the assumption he gives a damn about the midterms which could be a courageous assumption on my part.
Iran can still export some oil without access to the Strait
Some analysis suggests the Saudis are actually making more money now due to the increase in global prices. As I said they may well have refused to play ball with Iran's toll and waited for global markets to provoke a reaction.
What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.
Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.
I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.
Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
It fucks everyone from India to Bangladesh to Japan & SK. This is America alienating every SEasian ally they need against China. China a country with 9 months of oil in reserve. How much oil do we hold? How much jet fuel?
Who benefits from Iran controlling the Strait? There's a theory doing the rounds that the Gulf states wouldn't accept the Iran toll anyway and would instead wait for prices to go up and force the world's hand to act.
Well lets blockade it then! And when they start starving in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan what is going to happen next? You know we import near 50% of our calories, yes?
America is done and we should detach ourselves from the pariah states that inflicted this catastrophe on the world.
Iran hasn't opened the Strait anyway, so there's not a huge amount lost by blockading what Iran is permitting passage to. And I guess we'll see how Iran reacts.
But this is what they want. They can just squat on the strait and do nothing. So they can't sell their oil neither can the UAE & Saudi. The Qataris can't sell their gas or export their fertiliser. Who do you think is going to outlast the other in this situation. The self-contained state which has little reliance on external imports or literally everyone else in the region.
Now America takes all the heat not only did they cause the blockade they're actually doing it too.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
Don Tzu: Break an enemy blockade by blockading their blockade.
By all means pour shit on Trump when he's threatening armageddon, but the opposition to what is a simple, sensible and obvious idea - not to mention vital for any sort of negotiation, undermines the anti-Trump side greatly. Proves it's just reflexive. The response would clearly be equally withering if Trump spoke positively about motherhood and apple pie.
Who will blink first? TACO Trump or Xi?
Trump but that’s based on the assumption he gives a damn about the midterms which could be a courageous assumption on my part.
I doubt he cares about the midterms. I suspect he cares vary much about how the markets respond when they open Monday.
Not enough to not repeat the bellicose words at the weekend/TACO by Tuesday cycle, but you never know.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways
I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes
Narince, Emir, Sultaniye
And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine
You have heard of Sultaniye grapes before and have probably eaten them.
They have two English names: Thompson seedless for the fresh, edible version as commonly seen in your local supermarket; and Sultana for the dried version.
The Turks make a neutral but crisp wine with them, and very nice it is too.
Could you suggest where we can get some to try? Need something to while away the time until the 25th.
Turkish wine? Hard to get decent stuff in English shops, or indeed ethnic shops (unlike Georgian wines which turn up increasingly in Eastern European grocers). Turkish restaurants sell it but they get supplied by wholesalers. And the occasional bottle you’ll get in a Turkish food shop is likely to be overpriced and uninspiring. Best bet by far is to order online from a specialist.
Had some Georgian wine before. A good robust red to go with a steak.
Armenian wine is a good option too.
I’ve had it before, it’s really nice
It varies. I’ve been there. It can be very good it can also be really really… weird
I’ve actually been to the oldest “winery” in the world - ie the place with the oldest evidence of wine making anywhere. It’s a cave in southern Armenia in a valley known for its wine making even now
Even better you can buy a bottle of wine made from the exact same primitive grape they used back then. It really does have this odd archaic flavour. Like drinking the late Stone Age
I’ve had it at a wine bar in Durham where he selects wines so I’d guess I’m getting the good stuff
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
If Starmer doesn't agree to send minesweepers soon, we can add responsibility for a global famine to his list of crimes against humanity.
Don Tzu: Break an enemy blockade by blockading their blockade.
By all means pour shit on Trump when he's threatening armageddon, but the opposition to what is a simple, sensible and obvious idea - not to mention vital for any sort of negotiation, undermines the anti-Trump side greatly. Proves it's just reflexive. The response would clearly be equally withering if Trump spoke positively about motherhood and apple pie.
So far the pattern seems to be one of the largest increases in turnout where the races were closer last time .
For example the city of Debrecen which has 2 districts of the Hajdú-Bihar County.
District 1 in 2022 at 3PM 53.48% , 2026 68.37%
District 2 in 2022 at 3PM 50.88% , 2026 66.43%
I suppose we could caveat these big increases with a chance that Fidesz voters might be equally motivated as this is the biggest challenge for Orban but the general consensus amongst commentators is a high turnout would help the opposition.
Does anyone have any ideas why my Galaxy S21 phone will load the Politicalbetting site but will not load any comments. This is a recent problem. It used to load OK, I have not changed anything.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
When are we likely to see shortages?
Reasonable case to pursue the USA for reparations.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
If Starmer doesn't agree to send minesweepers soon, we can add responsibility for a global famine to his list of crimes agaisnt humanity.
Spent some of the weekend watching one of our minehunters sweep the Clyde.
Starmer is going to crucified for not providing freebies on energy costs and/or an entirely ineffectual fuel duty cut, even though no one sane could blame him for the actual root cause of this.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
If Starmer doesn't agree to send minesweepers soon, we can add responsibility for a global famine to his list of crimes against humanity.
Don't be ridiculous.
Starmer has about as much influence, and therefore responsibility, as to what happens in this crisis as the Prime Minister of Lesotho.
We are spectators. Spectators about to be punched in the face by both teams playing, but spectators nonetheless.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
When are we likely to see shortages?
Depends on
1) Panic buying ramps up
2) Behavioural changes due the price making it unaffordable for some.
3) When the government launches their rationing for essential services.
I reckon by mid May but the tipping point will be when the airlines run out of jet fuel, which will be soon.
A colleague pointed out that smug EV drivers might get drafted to do deliveries.
Looking at the Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county which had the highest Fidesz share in 2022 .
Turnout is the second lowest in the country overall . But if you look at the district voting , the constituency list has 6 districts . These were all won by Fidesz in 2022 . The closest of those was district 1 which is the main city Nyíregyháza.
The overall county turnout is 60.33% however the turnout in that district is 67.73% .
So it’s clear that urban areas are coming out to vote . Tisza does need though to turnout more voters in smaller towns aswell .
I’ll see what I can find there . Overall though very encouraging news for those wanting rid of Orban .
Any idea of how quick the Hungarians are with their counting?
They’re normally quick and we do get exit polls aswell .
Turnout looks to be incredible .
It’s going to smash the previous record .
Updated turnout at 5pm: 74.23% 2018: 63.21% 2022: 62.92%
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
When are we likely to see shortages?
It's airplane (or should that be aeroplane?) fuel that we'll run short of first I think.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
If Starmer doesn't agree to send minesweepers soon, we can add responsibility for a global famine to his list of crimes against humanity.
Every post you make is more ridiculous than the last.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
If Starmer doesn't agree to send minesweepers soon, we can add responsibility for a global famine to his list of crimes against humanity.
Every post you make is more ridiculous than the last.
I thought that one was obviously satirical. @kinabalu is a reliable judge.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
When are we likely to see shortages?
As far as oil is concerned, we shouldn't as it is sourced (I'm told) from the US, Norway and Libya.
What no one seems able to know or say out loud is what proportion of the oil which was intended for the UK was sold in transit to China, South Korea and other Asian countries whose dependence on Gulf supplies is much greater.
That is more likely to determine if and when we will see any supply issues.
Up here in rural Derbyshire, E10 unleaded is 154.9p at the local garage with diesel at 187.9p per litre.
Presumably if Orban does get the boot Trump and Vance will regard this as fake news and, no doubt, yet another grievance against Europe. We can only hope that the vote is reasonably fair and that is indeed the outcome.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
If Starmer doesn't agree to send minesweepers soon, we can add responsibility for a global famine to his list of crimes against humanity.
Don't be ridiculous.
Starmer has about as much influence, and therefore responsibility, as to what happens in this crisis as the Prime Minister of Lesotho.
We are spectators. Spectators about to be punched in the face by both teams playing, but spectators nonetheless.
William is attempting satire. I think.
He's so deep into MAGA apology it's sometimes hard to tell.
If Trump gets angry about countries cutting deals with Iran to allow their own tankers through the straits, maybe he will start enforcing the blockade instead to make it all or nothing.
"It’s called all in, and all out... We think that numerous countries are going to be helping us with this also, but we’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like, and not people that they don’t like or whatever it is. It’s going to be all or none."
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has urged the US and Iran "to find a way through", after initial peace talks between Iran and the US finished without an agreement to end the war.
Sir Keir warned against "further escalation" in the Middle East, after the negotiations between the two sides in Pakistan concluded in the early hours of Sunday. Downing Street said the prime minister discussed the talks - which the UK is not involved in - with the Sultan of Oman in a phone call on Sunday.
So you feel humiliated that the Leader of the Free World has decide the British Prime Minister is such a white flag waving coward he is not worth listening to. And as such you believe the white flag waving coward is a shame on our nation in the face of the mighty and brave Donald!
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
When are we likely to see shortages?
As far as oil is concerned, we shouldn't as it is sourced (I'm told) from the US, Norway and Libya.
What no one seems able to know or say out loud is what proportion of the oil which was intended for the UK was sold in transit to China, South Korea and other Asian countries whose dependence on Gulf supplies is much greater.
That is more likely to determine if and when we will see any supply issues.
Up here in rural Derbyshire, E10 unleaded is 154.9p at the local garage with diesel at 187.9p per litre.
Quite a shock to the system arriving home from France today. Over there, E10 at under €2.00 is rare as hen’s teeth, and diesel is up at €2.50. Lots of petrol stations with pumps “hors service” too.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
When are we likely to see shortages?
As far as oil is concerned, we shouldn't as it is sourced (I'm told) from the US, Norway and Libya.
What no one seems able to know or say out loud is what proportion of the oil which was intended for the UK was sold in transit to China, South Korea and other Asian countries whose dependence on Gulf supplies is much greater.
That is more likely to determine if and when we will see any supply issues.
Up here in rural Derbyshire, E10 unleaded is 154.9p at the local garage with diesel at 187.9p per litre.
Quite a shock to the system arriving home from France today. Over there, E10 at under €2.00 is rare as hen’s teeth, and diesel is up at €2.50. Lots of petrol stations with pumps “hors service” too.
After "close to 20 hours" of negotiations "there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS!"
"In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people,"
So he is ready to TACO if Iran gives him an off ramp.
They could give him what they already gave Obama in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and which he tore up, namely:
To significant, verifiable restrictions on its nuclear program to ensure it would remain exclusively peaceful in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.
Key commitments made by Iran included: Uranium Enrichment Limits: Iran agreed to reduce its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98% (to 300 kg) and limit enrichment to 3.67%—a level suitable for civil power but far below the roughly 90% required for a weapon. Centrifuge Reductions: It committed to reducing its operating centrifuges by two-thirds, from nearly 20,000 to 5,060 of its oldest models for 10 years. Plutonium Pathway Block: Iran agreed to redesign the Arak heavy-water reactor toprevent it from producing weapons-grade plutonium and to ship all spent fuel out of the country. Intrusive Monitoring: Iran accepted permanent, robust inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), including 24-hour monitoring of declared sites and a process to grant access to suspicious undeclared sites within 24 days. Weaponisation Prohibitions: It made a permanent commitment not to engage in specific research and development activities necessary for designing a nuclear explosive device.
I'm sure Iran wouldn't be so tactless as to mention Obama. They could say that they are responding to the overwhelming power of the US under Trump's leadership or some similar hocum.
Does anyone have any ideas why my Galaxy S21 phone will load the Politicalbetting site but will not load any comments. This is a recent problem. It used to load OK, I have not changed anything.
Thanks.
No but other people have made the same complaint over the last few days, often with a spontaneous fix.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
When are we likely to see shortages?
As far as oil is concerned, we shouldn't as it is sourced (I'm told) from the US, Norway and Libya.
What no one seems able to know or say out loud is what proportion of the oil which was intended for the UK was sold in transit to China, South Korea and other Asian countries whose dependence on Gulf supplies is much greater.
That is more likely to determine if and when we will see any supply issues.
Up here in rural Derbyshire, E10 unleaded is 154.9p at the local garage with diesel at 187.9p per litre.
Quite a shock to the system arriving home from France today. Over there, E10 at under €2.00 is rare as hen’s teeth, and diesel is up at €2.50. Lots of petrol stations with pumps “hors service” too.
Starmer/ Reeves fans please explain?
I suspect we are but a week behind.
There’s no annual road tax in France for private passenger vehicles so that’s incorporated into the cost of fuel which makes a comparison more difficult.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
If Starmer doesn't agree to send minesweepers soon, we can add responsibility for a global famine to his list of crimes against humanity.
Don't be ridiculous.
Starmer has about as much influence, and therefore responsibility, as to what happens in this crisis as the Prime Minister of Lesotho.
We are spectators. Spectators about to be punched in the face by both teams playing, but spectators nonetheless.
William is attempting satire. I think.
He's so deep into MAGA apology it's sometimes hard to tell.
Take out Trump, Putin and Netanyahu and oh how I wish someone would...
Then very clearly Starmer is one of the 5 most influential leaders on the Planet certainly the most influential in Europe, which is ironic.
Given a two and a half year sentence in 2022 for dealing cocaine and heroin, now suspected of the murder of a 21 yr old in Primrose Hill last week, assuming it is the same Oliuwadamilola Ogunyankinnu.
A man has been charged with the murder of Finbar Sullivan who was fatally stabbed in Primrose Hill. The 21-year-old was found with knife wounds near the viewing point at the north London beauty spot on Tuesday.
The Metropolitan Police said Oliuwadamilola Ogunyankinnu, 27, of Southbury Road in Enfield, had been arrested on Friday. He was charged with murder on Sunday.
Presumably if Orban does get the boot Trump and Vance will regard this as fake news and, no doubt, yet another grievance against Europe. We can only hope that the vote is reasonably fair and that is indeed the outcome.
If Trump gets angry about countries cutting deals with Iran to allow their own tankers through the straits, maybe he will start enforcing the blockade instead to make it all or nothing.
"It’s called all in, and all out... We think that numerous countries are going to be helping us with this also, but we’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like, and not people that they don’t like or whatever it is. It’s going to be all or none."
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz
The escalation now appears increasingly unavoidable, especially as President Trump significantly raises the stakes.
If Trump gets angry about countries cutting deals with Iran to allow their own tankers through the straits, maybe he will start enforcing the blockade instead to make it all or nothing.
"It’s called all in, and all out... We think that numerous countries are going to be helping us with this also, but we’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like, and not people that they don’t like or whatever it is. It’s going to be all or none."
Britain could adopt single market rules without MPs’ vote as part of UK-EU reset
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
When are we likely to see shortages?
As far as oil is concerned, we shouldn't as it is sourced (I'm told) from the US, Norway and Libya.
What no one seems able to know or say out loud is what proportion of the oil which was intended for the UK was sold in transit to China, South Korea and other Asian countries whose dependence on Gulf supplies is much greater.
That is more likely to determine if and when we will see any supply issues.
Up here in rural Derbyshire, E10 unleaded is 154.9p at the local garage with diesel at 187.9p per litre.
Quite a shock to the system arriving home from France today. Over there, E10 at under €2.00 is rare as hen’s teeth, and diesel is up at €2.50. Lots of petrol stations with pumps “hors service” too.
Starmer/ Reeves fans please explain?
I suspect we are but a week behind.
There’s no annual road tax in France for private passenger vehicles so that’s incorporated into the cost of fuel which makes a comparison more difficult.
The big comparison is with how pump prices used to be in France. Until a few years ago we’d always fill up on the French side of the channel because fuel - especially diesel - was much cheaper. Now it’s reversed, thanks to repeated duty freezes and one off cuts in the UK. The motorist lobby has had a productive decade and a half.
By contrast, electricity - largely nuclear but with a growing share of renewables - is still substantially cheaper there than here.
Have stayed many times in Gelert House, next to Glaslyn Ices/Pizza and almost opposite the Tanronnen Inn. Playing in the river, jumping off the bridge or floating downstream in cheap dinghies, remembering to get out before the hairier bits of the Aber Glaslyn Pass...
Spent 6 years staying at Coed Gelert the then new 5 property complex in Spring and Autumn from 2012.
Did 2 weeks Christmas and New Year 2015! 2016,NYE they close the bridge and half the village end up in the River.
Was there when old Post Office moved to Stores and my missus who did Post Office Projects was frond of Dilith who had just bought the Main Stores.
Given a two and a half year sentence in 2022 for dealing cocaine and heroin, now suspected of the murder of a 21 yr old in Primrose Hill last week, assuming it is the same Oliuwadamilola Ogunyankinnu.
A man has been charged with the murder of Finbar Sullivan who was fatally stabbed in Primrose Hill. The 21-year-old was found with knife wounds near the viewing point at the north London beauty spot on Tuesday.
The Metropolitan Police said Oliuwadamilola Ogunyankinnu, 27, of Southbury Road in Enfield, had been arrested on Friday. He was charged with murder on Sunday.
Presumably if Orban does get the boot Trump and Vance will regard this as fake news and, no doubt, yet another grievance against Europe. We can only hope that the vote is reasonably fair and that is indeed the outcome.
One thing that hasn't been focused on. How long will it take for the Gulf countries to be able to re-route everything without the SoH?
They won't be able to, as far as I know. They should be able reroute the crude given time, a lot of money and no Iranian bombing. Maybe some of the gas. But the refined products and fertiliser need to go by ship.
Today’s move makes rationing of petrol and a de facto lockdown more likely in the UK which means we’re headed for a massive recession/global depression.
Presumably if Orban does get the boot Trump and Vance will regard this as fake news and, no doubt, yet another grievance against Europe. We can only hope that the vote is reasonably fair and that is indeed the outcome.
Comments
Trump on Iran's nuclear program: "You want to see a stock market that goes down, let a couple of nuclear bombs get dropped on us."
66.01%
In 2022 it was 52.8%
The previous record in 2002 was 53.59%.
Looking at the Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county which had the highest Fidesz share in 2022 .
Turnout is the second lowest in the country overall . But if you look at the district voting , the constituency list has 6 districts . These were all won by Fidesz in 2022 . The closest of those was district 1 which is the main city Nyíregyháza.
The overall county turnout is 60.33% however the turnout in that district is 67.73% .
So it’s clear that urban areas are coming out to vote . Tisza does need though to turnout more voters in smaller towns aswell .
I’ll see what I can find there . Overall though very encouraging news for those wanting rid of Orban .
A few dozen mines off Kharg, Bandar Abbas and Chabahar is all it would take.
I’ve actually been to the oldest “winery” in the world - ie the place with the oldest evidence of wine making anywhere. It’s a cave in southern Armenia in a valley known for its wine making even now
Even better you can buy a bottle of wine made from the exact same primitive grape they used back then. It really does have this odd archaic flavour. Like drinking the late Stone Age
You always pass the port portside.
Don Tzu: Break an enemy blockade by blockading their blockade.
We’re learning the hard lesson than boring things like trade and international conventions on free passage are, actually, quite important. Might is right only really works when slaughtering civilian populations.
The significant silver lining is that the Chinese will now speed run renewables and EVs even faster than they are already.
https://youtu.be/Z_JOGmXpe5I?si=E65cU-SDVVAX8ciY
Joking aside, I wonder if Trump’s extreme aversion to military service is connected to his dearth of strategic thinking? Even Gefreiter Hitler had a plan which worked for a while, until it didn’t.
Trump: "As far as China is concerned, China can send their ships to us. China can send their ships to Venezuela. We told them, 'Buy from Venezuela.'"
Spurs avoid relegation and Arsenal win nothing, which means Forest get relegated but win the Europa League and qualify for next season's Champions League.
Forest's fixture's next season will be something like this
Lincoln (H)
Real Madrid (A)
Stockport County (A)
PSG (H)
Turnout looks to be incredible .
It’s going to smash the previous record .
We are talking Liz Truss levels of IQ from the leaders of America and Israel.
However, we are where we are. This action was sensible a week ago (when Trump wasn't doing it), it is still sensible now. Whether it will make the difference, who knows, but it does equalise the negotiations at least somewhat.
But if Iran decides to sit it out, and they will, what next?
Soaring oil prices, stock markets collapse, President Xi plays a strategic move, MAGA in tatters.
(Well, almost all. If Czar Vladimir Putin is celebrating it today, I hope his disguise slips, in public, so people can see his horns and cloven hooves.)
Its fucking hilarious that America is destroying its strategic alliances because of a small, hyper-belligerent, mess of a country won't stop bombing its neighbours.
Am i happy, no, not that it matters, This is going to push us into a depression and worsen my future but 90% of the world will have to grasp the even shittier end of the stick. And in a years time Iran will still control the strait.
(And afterwards became an American. You can decide for yourself whether that was a reward, or punishment, back then.)
If there isn't, then Trump's blockade is a waste of time and will further diminish the US. If there is, then Trump's blockade might be the best way to get us to that better outcome. It's probably better than lobbing some more bombs at Tehran, or taking Kharg island.
A lot of people are comfortable making very confident predictions which seems like it's not been warranted by events. I'm not confident in making any predictions about this at all.
Now America takes all the heat not only did they cause the blockade they're actually doing it too.
Not enough to not repeat the bellicose words at the weekend/TACO by Tuesday cycle, but you never know.
I’d like to try the late Stone Age stuff.
For example the city of Debrecen which has 2 districts of the Hajdú-Bihar County.
District 1 in 2022 at 3PM 53.48% , 2026 68.37%
District 2 in 2022 at 3PM 50.88% , 2026 66.43%
I suppose we could caveat these big increases with a chance that Fidesz voters might be equally motivated as this is the biggest challenge for Orban but the general consensus amongst commentators is a high turnout would help the opposition.
Thanks.
Starmer is going to crucified for not providing freebies on energy costs and/or an entirely ineffectual fuel duty cut, even though no one sane could blame him for the actual root cause of this.
Starmer has about as much influence, and therefore responsibility, as to what happens in this crisis as the Prime Minister of Lesotho.
We are spectators. Spectators about to be punched in the face by both teams playing, but spectators nonetheless.
1) Panic buying ramps up
2) Behavioural changes due the price making it unaffordable for some.
3) When the government launches their rationing for essential services.
I reckon by mid May but the tipping point will be when the airlines run out of jet fuel, which will be soon.
A colleague pointed out that smug EV drivers might get drafted to do deliveries.
https://www.oxfordstudent.com/2026/02/20/peter-magyar-they-are-eating-the-ducks/
Péter Magyar: they are eating the ducks!
2018: 63.21%
2022: 62.92%
So higher than last time with 2 hours left to go.
What no one seems able to know or say out loud is what proportion of the oil which was intended for the UK was sold in transit to China, South Korea and other Asian countries whose dependence on Gulf supplies is much greater.
That is more likely to determine if and when we will see any supply issues.
Up here in rural Derbyshire, E10 unleaded is 154.9p at the local garage with diesel at 187.9p per litre.
74.23%. That’s already passed the final turnout in 2022 of 69.59%.
In 2022 62.90% .
We don’t have a comparable figure with the previous record in 2002 as that data point was at 5.30PM , that showed 67.87% .
I think.
He's so deep into MAGA apology it's sometimes hard to tell.
Right on Nige!
I suspect we are but a week behind.
After "close to 20 hours" of negotiations "there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS!"
"In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people,"
So he is ready to TACO if Iran gives him an off ramp.
They could give him what they already gave Obama in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and which he tore up, namely:
To significant, verifiable restrictions on its nuclear program to ensure it would remain exclusively peaceful in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.
Key commitments made by Iran included:
Uranium Enrichment Limits: Iran agreed to reduce its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98% (to 300 kg) and limit enrichment to 3.67%—a level suitable for civil power but far below the roughly 90% required for a weapon.
Centrifuge Reductions: It committed to reducing its operating centrifuges by two-thirds, from nearly 20,000 to 5,060 of its oldest models for 10 years.
Plutonium Pathway Block: Iran agreed to redesign the Arak heavy-water reactor toprevent it from producing weapons-grade plutonium and to ship all spent fuel out of the country.
Intrusive Monitoring: Iran accepted permanent, robust inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), including 24-hour monitoring of declared sites and a process to grant access to suspicious undeclared sites within 24 days.
Weaponisation Prohibitions: It made a permanent commitment not to engage in specific research and development activities necessary for designing a nuclear explosive device.
I'm sure Iran wouldn't be so tactless as to mention Obama.
They could say that they are responding to the overwhelming power of the US under Trump's leadership or some similar hocum.
Problem solved.
Then very clearly Starmer is one of the 5 most influential leaders on the Planet certainly the most influential in Europe, which is ironic.
Is 30 months long enough for dealing Heroin?
https://westbridgfordwire.com/two-jailed-for-drug-dealing-conspiracy-in-nottinghamshire/
A man has been charged with the murder of Finbar Sullivan who was fatally stabbed in Primrose Hill.
The 21-year-old was found with knife wounds near the viewing point at the north London beauty spot on Tuesday.
The Metropolitan Police said Oliuwadamilola Ogunyankinnu, 27, of Southbury Road in Enfield, had been arrested on Friday. He was charged with murder on Sunday.
https://x.com/bbcbreaking/status/2043315730033033484?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
3 minutes later....
Oh Gawd. Just realised!!!
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
@citrinowicz
The escalation now appears increasingly unavoidable, especially as President Trump significantly raises the stakes.
https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2043319416939528668
Brace.
Exclusive: Ministers planning new legislation for alignment without full parliamentary scrutiny if in national interest
Ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the European Union, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.
In a major development in the prime minister’s push for closer ties with the continent in after the Iran war, the Guardian understands ministers are bracing to face down opposition to “dynamic alignment” with the EU from those who “scream treason” over the powers in a new EU-UK reset bill.
After weeks of Donald Trump’s war with Iran that have exposed the fragility of the UK’s damaged special relationship with the US, ministers argue the move will add billions to the UK economy and to help temper the cost of the conflict and boost sluggish productivity.
A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/apr/12/britain-single-market-rules-uk-eu-reset
By contrast, electricity - largely nuclear but with a growing share of renewables - is still substantially cheaper there than here.
Did 2 weeks Christmas and New Year 2015! 2016,NYE they close the bridge and half the village end up in the River.
Was there when old Post Office moved to Stores and my missus who did Post Office Projects was frond of Dilith who had just bought the Main Stores.
I’d take this as a sign they think they’ve lost and are preparing the ground to do a Trump .