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All Eyes Turn to Hungary – politicalbetting.com

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  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,085
    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    I’m not sure Trump has thought this through. So, no surprise there!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,865

    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    Boarded ?
    I'm not entirely sure that the Chinese government would be chill with that.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,138

    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    Boarded ?
    I'm not entirely sure that the Chinese government would be chill with that.
    So what would they do ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,805

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

    If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

    If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories

    Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

    So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
    Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
    Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
    It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
    It's the vibe.

    Many Tories remind them of people they despise in their everyday lives.
    Matter of geography sometimes. I've lived most my life in a deep blue county, with a big slice of LD, so it's hard to see the average member of either as not being fundamentally 'normal', but in other areas they are the wacky local loons or a distant, and national, evil.

    People do vote Labour round here too (at Westminster anyway - me included last time), but they have essentially nil representation, so I sometimes second guess whether I have an inherent suspicion of Labour arising from that atmosphere that affects me without realising it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,849

    @Andy_JS and @williamglenn don’t think Trump is insane. To answer the question.

    See my post on March 13th anticipating this move from Trump.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5485554/#Comment_5485554

    If Trump gets angry about countries cutting deals with Iran to allow their own tankers through the straits, maybe he will start enforcing the blockade instead to make it all or nothing.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,124

    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    Boarded ?
    I'm not entirely sure that the Chinese government would be chill with that.
    So what would they do ?
    Send warships to escort the tankers.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,916
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    Boarded ?
    I'm not entirely sure that the Chinese government would be chill with that.
    So what would they do ?
    Send warships to escort the tankers.
    Warships are not a solution to modern drones - merely an extra target..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956
    edited April 12
    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring.....

    It should also be remembered this is Trump, he was going to bomb Iran into medieval times last week, the week before, the week before that.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363
    edited April 12
    Leon said:

    Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways

    I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes

    Narince, Emir, Sultaniye

    And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine

    You have heard of Sultaniye grapes before and have probably eaten them.

    They have two English names: Thompson seedless for the fresh, edible version as commonly seen in your local supermarket; and Sultana for the dried version.

    The Turks make a neutral but crisp wine with them, and very nice it is too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

    If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

    If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories

    Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

    So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
    Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
    Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
    It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
    It's the vibe.

    Many Tories remind them of people they despise in their everyday lives.
    That was the case, fortunately for the Tories now most of the Alan B'Stard types who were in the party are now in Reform, no names mentioned Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosindell
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,488
    edited April 12
    I wonder how the Foreign Minister of the UAE feels right now.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,566

    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring.....

    It should also be remembered this is Trump, he was going to bomb Iran into medieval times last week, the week before, the week before that.

    As I learned from studies of the Cuban Missile Crisis, there's a lot of difference between a blockade and quarantine, the rules of engagement and the US Navy know that which means things could get very messy and very quickly.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,211

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    You speak as though Trump was in his right mind.

    Obviously, he means that between them, the USA and Iran are go to stop any ships whatsoever from getting through the Strait.
    In Trumps head, the US is an oil producing nation. So cutting off any competitor must be good.
    It must be so echoey in there.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956
    I was supposed to be heading to the Middle East in a few months. I was hoping it would have all quietened down by then.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,566

    I was supposed to be heading to the Middle East in a few months. I was hoping it would have all quietened down by then.....

    I have a romantic break in October in Dubai.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,805

    I was supposed to be heading to the Middle East in a few months. I was hoping it would have all quietened down by then.....

    I'd give it another thousand years, just to be safe.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,244
    MelonB said:

    Leon said:

    Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways

    I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes

    Narince, Emir, Sultaniye

    And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine

    You have heard of Sultaniye grapes before and have probably eaten them.

    They have two English names: Thompson seedless for the fresh, edible version as commonly seen in your local supermarket; and Sultana for the dried version.

    The Turks make a neutral but crisp wine with them, and very nice it is too.
    Could you suggest where we can get some to try? Need something to while away the time until the 25th.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,805
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    You speak as though Trump was in his right mind.

    Obviously, he means that between them, the USA and Iran are go to stop any ships whatsoever from getting through the Strait.
    In Trumps head, the US is an oil producing nation. So cutting off any competitor must be good.
    It must be so echoey in there.
    Actually the problem might be more there's a million random and contradictory things rattling around in a big jumble.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,124
    edited April 12
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    Boarded ?
    I'm not entirely sure that the Chinese government would be chill with that.
    So what would they do ?
    Send warships to escort the tankers.
    Warships are not a solution to modern drones - merely an extra target..
    It’s a signal of intent.

    The Chinese shouldn’t take it lying down. That’s my point and the US are proposing a naval blockade.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858

    I was supposed to be heading to the Middle East in a few months. I was hoping it would have all quietened down by then.....

    I have a romantic break in October in Dubai.
    Well you could get a fantastic fireworks display from your penthouse suite!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,566
    edited April 12
    HYUFD said:

    I was supposed to be heading to the Middle East in a few months. I was hoping it would have all quietened down by then.....

    I have a romantic break in October in Dubai.
    Well you could get a fantastic fireworks display from your penthouse suite!!
    Indeed, I reckon if I cancel and rebook I can get the top suites for a grand a night now at the Burg Khalifa.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,847

    Just going to check on my nuclear bomb shelter down the end of the garden....

    At least living near Faslane, I won’t have to worry about surviving a nuclear holocaust.
    I mean, I'm liking this post, but...!?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,858

    HYUFD said:

    I was supposed to be heading to the Middle East in a few months. I was hoping it would have all quietened down by then.....

    I have a romantic break in October in Dubai.
    Well you could get a fantastic fireworks display from your penthouse suite!!
    Indeed, I reckon if I cancel and rebook I can get the top suite for a grand a night now.
    Yes great value, as long as the chandelier and ceiling don't collapse on the bed post direct hit!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,576

    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring.....

    It should also be remembered this is Trump, he was going to bomb Iran into medieval times last week, the week before, the week before that.

    As I learned from studies of the Cuban Missile Crisis, there's a lot of difference between a blockade and quarantine, the rules of engagement and the US Navy know that which means things could get very messy and very quickly.
    Just thank goodness we had a different US President in charge back then.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,847
    Scott_xP said:

    @abuaardvark.bsky.social‬

    Trump: open the Straits
    Iran: no
    Trump: you are totally destroyed we won
    Iran: we’re good
    Trump: we don’t need the damn Straits
    Iran: ok cool
    Trump: someone help
    World: new phone who dis
    Trump: the Straits will open themselves
    Iran: lol no
    Trump: we will blockade the Straits
    Iran: um ok thanks

    At some point Trump will start nuking stuff if only because he needs to do something else to hide/distract from what an absolute fucking shitshow he's made of all this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,805

    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring.....

    It should also be remembered this is Trump, he was going to bomb Iran into medieval times last week, the week before, the week before that.

    As I learned from studies of the Cuban Missile Crisis, there's a lot of difference between a blockade and quarantine, the rules of engagement and the US Navy know that which means things could get very messy and very quickly.
    Just thank goodness we had a different US President in charge back then.
    Kennedy would be worried by a nuclear war, since that might interfere with his primary objective - getting laid.
  • MelonB said:

    Leon said:

    Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways

    I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes

    Narince, Emir, Sultaniye

    And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine

    You have heard of Sultaniye grapes before and have probably eaten them.

    They have two English names: Thompson seedless for the fresh, edible version as commonly seen in your local supermarket; and Sultana for the dried version.

    The Turks make a neutral but crisp wine with them, and very nice it is too.
    Fantastic. Ta. But I think you’re being a bit peevish with the “neural but crisp” - it’s a lot better than plonk

    Very palatable with fish and I imagine really nice on a hot summer evening, as an aperitif really chilled
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363
    Battlebus said:

    MelonB said:

    Leon said:

    Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways

    I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes

    Narince, Emir, Sultaniye

    And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine

    You have heard of Sultaniye grapes before and have probably eaten them.

    They have two English names: Thompson seedless for the fresh, edible version as commonly seen in your local supermarket; and Sultana for the dried version.

    The Turks make a neutral but crisp wine with them, and very nice it is too.
    Could you suggest where we can get some to try? Need something to while away the time until the 25th.
    Turkish wine? Hard to get decent stuff in English shops, or indeed ethnic shops (unlike Georgian wines which turn up increasingly in Eastern European grocers). Turkish restaurants sell it but they get supplied by wholesalers. And the occasional bottle you’ll get in a Turkish food shop is likely to be overpriced and uninspiring. Best bet by far is to order online from a specialist.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363

    HYUFD said:

    I was supposed to be heading to the Middle East in a few months. I was hoping it would have all quietened down by then.....

    I have a romantic break in October in Dubai.
    Well you could get a fantastic fireworks display from your penthouse suite!!
    Indeed, I reckon if I cancel and rebook I can get the top suites for a grand a night now at the Burg Khalifa.
    On the other hand my ill-timed plan for a family trip to La Palma this Christmas is turning into a remortgage event.

    Winter sun + oil price hikes + Middle East turbulence = Canaries going stratospheric.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363
    Leon said:

    MelonB said:

    Leon said:

    Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways

    I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes

    Narince, Emir, Sultaniye

    And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine

    You have heard of Sultaniye grapes before and have probably eaten them.

    They have two English names: Thompson seedless for the fresh, edible version as commonly seen in your local supermarket; and Sultana for the dried version.

    The Turks make a neutral but crisp wine with them, and very nice it is too.
    Fantastic. Ta. But I think you’re being a bit peevish with the “neural but crisp” - it’s a lot better than plonk

    Very palatable with fish and I imagine really nice on a hot summer evening, as an aperitif really chilled
    Neutral but crisp is one of my favourite styles. Indeed fully 1/3 of my vineyard is planted with the sine qua non of neutral but crisp, Melon de Bourgogne aka Muscadet.

    The other in the triumvirate also being primarily an eating grape, except where vinified by the Swiss: Chasselas.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,196
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

    If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

    If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories

    Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

    So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
    Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
    Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
    It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
    "Unfairly". Did you live between 2010 and 2024?
    Given they had to deal with Brexit, Covid, Ukraine, cost of living crisis, it is looking like a golden age of governance compared to Starmer's Labour!
    Absolutely not. They are the cause of or have worsened almost all of our current problems. They refused to invest in the future (see: nuclear power, infrastructure, defence), let everything else crumble, and most importantly were the cause of Brexit.

    "Unfairly toxic" indeed. The Conservative Party will absolutely never get my vote.
    None so blind as those who won't see.

    For every one of you like that about the Tories, there are currently three like that about Starmer's Labour.

    Labour were voted in with a massive majority to improve on what the Tories had done. Not to make things worse.
    The assertion was the "Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate" and, well, they are. Labour's position really has nothing to do with it.
    But it does explain the polling for Reform, Greens, PC in Wales and SNP in Scotland.

    There's a plurality in this country that wants neither Tories nor Labour, though disagrees what they want instead.

    The similtaneous bloodbath of both Tories and Labour in a FPTP election is going to be chaos. I don't expect it to be possible to form a stable government afterwards.
    We could have a year of two elections and three prime ministers.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,626
    Trump reminds me of a teacher I had who told me "if you want to stay in this classroom you need to get out now".
    Trump: "If you don't open the Strait then I'll close it."
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,516
    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump: "We're putting on a complete blockade. We're not gonna let Iran make money on selling oil to people they like and not people that they don't like. It's gonna be all or none, & that's the way it is. You saw what we did with Venezuela. It'll be something similar to that, but at a higher level."

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mjcjroff6n2c
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,428
    edited April 12
    Leon said:

    Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways

    I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes

    Narince, Emir, Sultaniye

    And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine

    There’s clearly very much that you don’t know; and from each trip you seem to manage, almost inexplicably, to return still not knowing precisely the same amount that you didn’t know before you set off.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,849
    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    He can start with European ones instead.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    Boarded ?
    I'm not entirely sure that the Chinese government would be chill with that.
    So what would they do ?
    Send warships to escort the tankers.
    Warships are not a solution to modern drones - merely an extra target..
    It’s a signal of intent.

    The Chinese shouldn’t take it lying down. That’s my point and the US are proposing a naval blockade.
    Iran is trying to control the Strait over the heads of all the other Gulf countries. Is that acceptable?

    It strikes me that the vast majority of the world should want the Strait opened and all countries of the region to be able to export through it. It's ludicrous to allow Iran de facto sovereignty. Trump is grotesque but people are losing their minds here.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 2,027
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    Boarded ?
    I'm not entirely sure that the Chinese government would be chill with that.
    So what would they do ?
    Send warships to escort the tankers.
    Warships are not a solution to modern drones - merely an extra target..
    It’s a signal of intent.

    The Chinese shouldn’t take it lying down. That’s my point and the US are proposing a naval blockade.
    Joking aside it's not the worst strategy.

    In my view Iran is overplaying their hand. If they are blocking the Strait - international water - there's no reason for US can't do the same.

    That means no more toll income and significantly reduced oil income (none by sea, I'm not sure what pipelines they have).

    It's certainly a better response than the previous 'end of civilisation genocide' option that Trump floated before his deadline.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,865
    kle4 said:

    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring.....

    It should also be remembered this is Trump, he was going to bomb Iran into medieval times last week, the week before, the week before that.

    As I learned from studies of the Cuban Missile Crisis, there's a lot of difference between a blockade and quarantine, the rules of engagement and the US Navy know that which means things could get very messy and very quickly.
    Just thank goodness we had a different US President in charge back then.
    Kennedy would be worried by a nuclear war, since that might interfere with his primary objective - getting laid.
    Another disadvantage of the gerontocracy.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,211

    Scott_xP said:

    @abuaardvark.bsky.social‬

    Trump: open the Straits
    Iran: no
    Trump: you are totally destroyed we won
    Iran: we’re good
    Trump: we don’t need the damn Straits
    Iran: ok cool
    Trump: someone help
    World: new phone who dis
    Trump: the Straits will open themselves
    Iran: lol no
    Trump: we will blockade the Straits
    Iran: um ok thanks

    At some point Trump will start nuking stuff if only because he needs to do something else to hide/distract from what an absolute fucking shitshow he's made of all this.
    Let's just hope he's so far gone by then that he retaliates against himself by nuking Mar-a-Lago.
  • IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways

    I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes

    Narince, Emir, Sultaniye

    And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine

    There’s clearly very much that you don’t know; and from each trip you seem to manage, almost inexplicably, to return still not knowing precisely the same amount that you didn’t know before you set off.
    I’m sorry you’re stuck in the Isle of Wight and now your only friend, a dog, has gone for rape counselling
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,342

    The Tories are clearly better than Reform.

    However they need to apologise and accept that austerity is responsible for most of the social problems like shoplifting we now all see on the rise. It was perfectly possible to cut spending and not gut the country in the way they did.

    Spending wasn't cut.

    Cuts in some areas were more than matched by increases in others.

    Now it would be easy for any political party to acknowledge that these spending increases (mostly for the benefit of oldies ** ) were mistakes and promise to reverse them.

    As I'm not aware that any political party is advocating doing that we must assume that they think those spending increases were justifiable and hence the related cuts in others areas were also justifiable.

    ** Another was cutting defence spending to fund an increase in Foreign Aid so that the UK would become an 'Aid Superpower'.
    They cut thousands of police officers. They should apologise.
    Do you think that police numbers are so low that when hundreds of kids are literally filming themselves vandalising and looting stores and posting it on social media, they only have the manpower to make two arrests?

    Or do you think the masterly inactivity might have some other causes.
    It’s not the only cause but cutting them cannot have helped. Surely even you can agree about that.

    What was the point in cutting them in the first place? What did it achieve?
    I am not defending the useless May administration - but wasn't she post-austerity anyway?
    Theresa May cut thousands of police as Home Secretary, under Cameron and Osborne's Plan A austerity.

    Boris's 2019 election ran against this, pledging to recruit thousands of police. Running against your own party's record is a feature of British politics.
    So again I ask, why did we cut them? What on earth were they thinking?
    By coincidence...

    Shoplifting rife, police overwhelmed, an angry public – the trail leads back to one person: Theresa May
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/apr/12/shoplifting-police-public-theresa-may-home-secretary
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,784
    Scott_xP said:

    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump: "We're putting on a complete blockade. We're not gonna let Iran make money on selling oil to people they like and not people that they don't like. It's gonna be all or none, & that's the way it is. You saw what we did with Venezuela. It'll be something similar to that, but at a higher level."

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mjcjroff6n2c

    Imagine if Trey Parker and Matt Stone wrote an episode of Southpark in which Cartman becomes President of the United States...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,463

    Trump reminds me of a teacher I had who told me "if you want to stay in this classroom you need to get out now".
    Trump: "If you don't open the Strait then I'll close it."

    We had a PE teacher who was infamous for telling the class to "get into groups of four and form a triangle." May well have been apocryphal.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,849
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/apr/12/asylum-seeker-hotels-closures-home-office

    The Home Office is due to hold a private event this week, which it describes as an “industry day” for current and potential future providers of asylum accommodation. The department is not disclosing details of the time and venue until the last minute and those attending have to sign an NDA.

    The meeting relates to the re-tendering of asylum contracts from 1 September 2029 until 31 August 2036, with a possible option to extend to 31 August 2039. The new contract, known as Future Asylum Contracts Accommodation, is valued at approximately £10bn and aims to move away from reliance on hotel accommodation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,805

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    Boarded ?
    I'm not entirely sure that the Chinese government would be chill with that.
    So what would they do ?
    Send warships to escort the tankers.
    Warships are not a solution to modern drones - merely an extra target..
    It’s a signal of intent.

    The Chinese shouldn’t take it lying down. That’s my point and the US are proposing a naval blockade.
    Iran is trying to control the Strait over the heads of all the other Gulf countries. Is that acceptable?

    It strikes me that the vast majority of the world should want the Strait opened and all countries of the region to be able to export through it. It's ludicrous to allow Iran de facto sovereignty. Trump is grotesque but people are losing their minds here.
    He's trying to solve a resolve a problem he caused. Obviously the Iranians having de facto control is a terrible idea, but absent the longer term solutions to get around the Hormuz problem are his efforts going to resolve it in the short term? We shall see.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,222

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

    If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

    If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories

    Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

    So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
    Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
    Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
    It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
    "Unfairly". Did you live between 2010 and 2024?
    Given they had to deal with Brexit, Covid, Ukraine, cost of living crisis, it is looking like a golden age of governance compared to Starmer's Labour!
    Austerity was a Conservative Party choice. We are currently reaping the rewards of austerity. Make of that as you will.

    Brexit was an invention of the Conservative Party and considered a price worth paying for a Boris Johnson premiership. We are currently reaping the rewards of Brexit.

    Conservative mismanagement of COViD is off the scale. PPE corruption, and the criminally incompetent and absurdly expensive wage relief schemes will live with us for decades.

    Disastrous Liz Truss, whose Chancellor crashed the economy and created the cost of living crisis was I believe a Conservative creation.

    So Starmer isn't doing the greatest job of clearing up the mess created by the Conservatives...
    I heard some utter shite posted here before but I've never read a post quite so nakedly spurious that they tried to place the responsibility for the COL crisis on the minibudget kerfuffle. Is there even a sort of twisted logic to how that sort of could have been the truth in another universe or is it just some form of word game? Hats off either way.
    You are in denial. You have been since October 2022.
    Yes, I am in total denial. How could I not see that the minibudget designed to deal with the cost of living crisis was in fact the cause of it, via some form of time travel as yet unidentified?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,805

    Scott_xP said:

    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump: "We're putting on a complete blockade. We're not gonna let Iran make money on selling oil to people they like and not people that they don't like. It's gonna be all or none, & that's the way it is. You saw what we did with Venezuela. It'll be something similar to that, but at a higher level."

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mjcjroff6n2c

    Imagine if Trey Parker and Matt Stone wrote an episode of Southpark in which Cartman becomes President of the United States...
    Wha'ever, I do what I want!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,342
    edited April 12
    Ratters said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    Boarded ?
    I'm not entirely sure that the Chinese government would be chill with that.
    So what would they do ?
    Send warships to escort the tankers.
    Warships are not a solution to modern drones - merely an extra target..
    It’s a signal of intent.

    The Chinese shouldn’t take it lying down. That’s my point and the US are proposing a naval blockade.
    Joking aside it's not the worst strategy.

    In my view Iran is overplaying their hand. If they are blocking the Strait - international water - there's no reason for US can't do the same.

    That means no more toll income and significantly reduced oil income (none by sea, I'm not sure what pipelines they have).

    It's certainly a better response than the previous 'end of civilisation genocide' option that Trump floated before his deadline.
    Better for whom, exactly? Well humanity but will closing the strait benefit Trump's squillionaire mates selling American oil or consumers in the rest of the world (and in America) who get screwed by shortages and higher prices? What was the point of all this?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,222
    Leon said:

    Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways

    I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes

    Narince, Emir, Sultaniye

    And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine

    You can also get your teeth whitened and and your wrinkles dealt with for a song. No refunds.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,244
    MelonB said:

    Battlebus said:

    MelonB said:

    Leon said:

    Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways

    I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes

    Narince, Emir, Sultaniye

    And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine

    You have heard of Sultaniye grapes before and have probably eaten them.

    They have two English names: Thompson seedless for the fresh, edible version as commonly seen in your local supermarket; and Sultana for the dried version.

    The Turks make a neutral but crisp wine with them, and very nice it is too.
    Could you suggest where we can get some to try? Need something to while away the time until the 25th.
    Turkish wine? Hard to get decent stuff in English shops, or indeed ethnic shops (unlike Georgian wines which turn up increasingly in Eastern European grocers). Turkish restaurants sell it but they get supplied by wholesalers. And the occasional bottle you’ll get in a Turkish food shop is likely to be overpriced and uninspiring. Best bet by far is to order online from a specialist.
    Had some Georgian wine before. A good robust red to go with a steak.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    kle4 said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    Boarded ?
    I'm not entirely sure that the Chinese government would be chill with that.
    So what would they do ?
    Send warships to escort the tankers.
    Warships are not a solution to modern drones - merely an extra target..
    It’s a signal of intent.

    The Chinese shouldn’t take it lying down. That’s my point and the US are proposing a naval blockade.
    Iran is trying to control the Strait over the heads of all the other Gulf countries. Is that acceptable?

    It strikes me that the vast majority of the world should want the Strait opened and all countries of the region to be able to export through it. It's ludicrous to allow Iran de facto sovereignty. Trump is grotesque but people are losing their minds here.
    He's trying to solve a resolve a problem he caused. Obviously the Iranians having de facto control is a terrible idea, but absent the longer term solutions to get around the Hormuz problem are his efforts going to resolve it in the short term? We shall see.
    No idea whether it will work. But by controlling the Strait Iran has effectively declared economic war on its neighbours. China needs to be flushed out here.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,448
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
    No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.

    I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.

    Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
    It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,342

    Trump reminds me of a teacher I had who told me "if you want to stay in this classroom you need to get out now".
    Trump: "If you don't open the Strait then I'll close it."

    We had a PE teacher who was infamous for telling the class to "get into groups of four and form a triangle." May well have been apocryphal.
    We had an English teacher who changed the marking scheme to be out of 45 rather than 50 so it was easier to divide into the seven grades available.

    And a German teacher whose answer to staircase congestion was up on the right, down on the left!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,222
    Trump is right to stop other countries' oil getting through. I said this some time ago - it would have been better then but better late than never. Let's see how Iran feels now it knows it's going to be making shit all money from oil and gas from here on in.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,448
    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    Not likely to be a Chinese tanker though
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,805

    Trump reminds me of a teacher I had who told me "if you want to stay in this classroom you need to get out now".
    Trump: "If you don't open the Strait then I'll close it."

    We had a PE teacher who was infamous for telling the class to "get into groups of four and form a triangle." May well have been apocryphal.
    We had an English teacher who changed the marking scheme to be out of 45 rather than 50 so it was easier to divide into the seven grades available.
    Probably apocryphal tale of the teacher who started marking papers out of 120 instead of 100, since people were much happier getting scored a 70 then.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,516
    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump: "I predict they come back and give us everything we want. And I told my people, 'I want everything. I don't want 90%, I don't 95%.' I told them, 'I want everything.' They have no cards."

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mjckfu7nit2c
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,222

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
    No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.

    I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.

    Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
    It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
    This idea is frowned upon by some here who believe it might upset the Chinese.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,449

    Trump reminds me of a teacher I had who told me "if you want to stay in this classroom you need to get out now".
    Trump: "If you don't open the Strait then I'll close it."

    We had a PE teacher who was infamous for telling the class to "get into groups of four and form a triangle." May well have been apocryphal.
    One in the centre, and the other three at the corners. Simples.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956
    Scott_xP said:

    @atrupar.com‬

    Trump: "I predict they come back and give us everything we want. And I told my people, 'I want everything. I don't want 90%, I don't 95%.' I told them, 'I want everything.' They have no cards."

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mjckfu7nit2c

    Cartmanland....
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789

    Trump is right to stop other countries' oil getting through. I said this some time ago - it would have been better then but better late than never. Let's see how Iran feels now it knows it's going to be making shit all money from oil and gas from here on in.

    Key thing is whether Trump has backing of the Gulf states on this? Trouble is he has the inclination to make it all about himself.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,448
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    War between China and the US 👍

    The Chinese should send warships to escort the tankers and if the US engages with them give it them with both barrels.
    I think most tankers have more than 2 barrels onboard
  • Battlebus said:

    MelonB said:

    Battlebus said:

    MelonB said:

    Leon said:

    Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways

    I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes

    Narince, Emir, Sultaniye

    And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine

    You have heard of Sultaniye grapes before and have probably eaten them.

    They have two English names: Thompson seedless for the fresh, edible version as commonly seen in your local supermarket; and Sultana for the dried version.

    The Turks make a neutral but crisp wine with them, and very nice it is too.
    Could you suggest where we can get some to try? Need something to while away the time until the 25th.
    Turkish wine? Hard to get decent stuff in English shops, or indeed ethnic shops (unlike Georgian wines which turn up increasingly in Eastern European grocers). Turkish restaurants sell it but they get supplied by wholesalers. And the occasional bottle you’ll get in a Turkish food shop is likely to be overpriced and uninspiring. Best bet by far is to order online from a specialist.
    Had some Georgian wine before. A good robust red to go with a steak.
    Armenian wine is a good option too.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,504
    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    How is that different to a Chinese tanker laden with Saudi oil gets stopped by Iranian threats ?
  • Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways

    I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes

    Narince, Emir, Sultaniye

    And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine

    There’s clearly very much that you don’t know; and from each trip you seem to manage, almost inexplicably, to return still not knowing precisely the same amount that you didn’t know before you set off.
    I’m sorry you’re stuck in the Isle of Wight and now your only friend, a dog, has gone for rape counselling
    I got a flag!

    *air punch in Pamphylia*
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,449
    Battlebus said:

    MelonB said:

    Battlebus said:

    MelonB said:

    Leon said:

    Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways

    I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes

    Narince, Emir, Sultaniye

    And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine

    You have heard of Sultaniye grapes before and have probably eaten them.

    They have two English names: Thompson seedless for the fresh, edible version as commonly seen in your local supermarket; and Sultana for the dried version.

    The Turks make a neutral but crisp wine with them, and very nice it is too.
    Could you suggest where we can get some to try? Need something to while away the time until the 25th.
    Turkish wine? Hard to get decent stuff in English shops, or indeed ethnic shops (unlike Georgian wines which turn up increasingly in Eastern European grocers). Turkish restaurants sell it but they get supplied by wholesalers. And the occasional bottle you’ll get in a Turkish food shop is likely to be overpriced and uninspiring. Best bet by far is to order online from a specialist.
    Had some Georgian wine before. A good robust red to go with a steak.
    Battlebus said:

    MelonB said:

    Battlebus said:

    MelonB said:

    Leon said:

    Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways

    I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes

    Narince, Emir, Sultaniye

    And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine

    You have heard of Sultaniye grapes before and have probably eaten them.

    They have two English names: Thompson seedless for the fresh, edible version as commonly seen in your local supermarket; and Sultana for the dried version.

    The Turks make a neutral but crisp wine with them, and very nice it is too.
    Could you suggest where we can get some to try? Need something to while away the time until the 25th.
    Turkish wine? Hard to get decent stuff in English shops, or indeed ethnic shops (unlike Georgian wines which turn up increasingly in Eastern European grocers). Turkish restaurants sell it but they get supplied by wholesalers. And the occasional bottle you’ll get in a Turkish food shop is likely to be overpriced and uninspiring. Best bet by far is to order online from a specialist.
    Had some Georgian wine before. A good robust red to go with a steak.
    Georgian? That's a very old vintage.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 2,027

    Ratters said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    Boarded ?
    I'm not entirely sure that the Chinese government would be chill with that.
    So what would they do ?
    Send warships to escort the tankers.
    Warships are not a solution to modern drones - merely an extra target..
    It’s a signal of intent.

    The Chinese shouldn’t take it lying down. That’s my point and the US are proposing a naval blockade.
    Joking aside it's not the worst strategy.

    In my view Iran is overplaying their hand. If they are blocking the Strait - international water - there's no reason for US can't do the same.

    That means no more toll income and significantly reduced oil income (none by sea, I'm not sure what pipelines they have).

    It's certainly a better response than the previous 'end of civilisation genocide' option that Trump floated before his deadline.
    Better for whom, exactly? Well humanity but will closing the strait benefit Trump's squillionaire mates selling American oil or consumers in the rest of the world (and in America) who get screwed by shortages and higher prices? What was the point of all this?
    For his negotiating position. It creates sustainable economic pressure that doesn't result in mass murder.

    Obviously walking away from the whole mess with his tail between his legs would have been better. But sadly it seems they've decided against that for now.

    For the rest of the world we're fucked in the short term. Flights booked for the summer I suspect now resemble lottery ticket where the lucky get to go and come home, the unlucky don't get to go, and the really unlucky get to go but can't make it home...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,836
    edited April 12

    Trump reminds me of a teacher I had who told me "if you want to stay in this classroom you need to get out now".
    Trump: "If you don't open the Strait then I'll close it."

    This brings back fond memories of an O Level History lesson where a couple of lads got sent to the Head for discipline, which inspired another couple into objection to the unfairness and got sent to join the first two.

    It then snowballed into an "I am Spartacus" moment until every other pupil joining in until not a single one was left. Of course no one was foolish enough to actually go to the Heads office, we just bunked off to the playing field doubled up with laughter.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,849
    https://x.com/AmbDennisRoss/status/2043325956325069148

    The blockade always made more sense than seizing Kharg Island. It stops Iran’s exports, its revenues, is a counterpoint to their closing the Straits. They may attack Gulf oil facilities but it puts greater pressure on Iran. It also puts great pressure on China to pressure Iran.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,085

    Battlebus said:

    MelonB said:

    Battlebus said:

    MelonB said:

    Leon said:

    Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways

    I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes

    Narince, Emir, Sultaniye

    And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine

    You have heard of Sultaniye grapes before and have probably eaten them.

    They have two English names: Thompson seedless for the fresh, edible version as commonly seen in your local supermarket; and Sultana for the dried version.

    The Turks make a neutral but crisp wine with them, and very nice it is too.
    Could you suggest where we can get some to try? Need something to while away the time until the 25th.
    Turkish wine? Hard to get decent stuff in English shops, or indeed ethnic shops (unlike Georgian wines which turn up increasingly in Eastern European grocers). Turkish restaurants sell it but they get supplied by wholesalers. And the occasional bottle you’ll get in a Turkish food shop is likely to be overpriced and uninspiring. Best bet by far is to order online from a specialist.
    Had some Georgian wine before. A good robust red to go with a steak.
    Armenian wine is a good option too.
    As is Moldovan wine.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,947

    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    How is that different to a Chinese tanker laden with Saudi oil gets stopped by Iranian threats ?
    What!?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,504
    kle4 said:

    The Tories are clearly better than Reform.

    However they need to apologise and accept that austerity is responsible for most of the social problems like shoplifting we now all see on the rise. It was perfectly possible to cut spending and not gut the country in the way they did.

    Spending wasn't cut.

    Cuts in some areas were more than matched by increases in others.

    Now it would be easy for any political party to acknowledge that these spending increases (mostly for the benefit of oldies ** ) were mistakes and promise to reverse them.

    As I'm not aware that any political party is advocating doing that we must assume that they think those spending increases were justifiable and hence the related cuts in others areas were also justifiable.

    ** Another was cutting defence spending to fund an increase in Foreign Aid so that the UK would become an 'Aid Superpower'.
    They cut thousands of police officers. They should apologise.
    Did that have any effect ?

    And if you think more should have been spent on the police where should they have made the cuts instead ?
    I suspect there’s no credible way cutting police officers cannot have caused crime to go up.

    There were plenty of other areas they could have cut spending instead.
    That depends on what the police decide to spend their resources on.

    Having even more plods patrolling through the wilds of twatterland would be unlikely to make the streets safer.

    You'd be on stronger ground to argue that more spending on the courts and prison system would have been / would be worthwhile.

    As to having more cuts elsewhere then you have to say where and then find a political party which is advocating them.

    In reality the only other places there could have been cuts would have been health, social care, welfare and the regular favourite of triple lock pensions.

    None of which are currently receiving cuts to fund more spending on the plods.

    If the really big budgets are untouchable, or only minimally touched, other areas take a hit even if not actively reduced, by not increasing as much demand.

    Look at local government - they cannot afford adult social care and SEND increases, to that takes up an ever increasing share of the overall budget, then people get mad that their council doesn't seem to do anything because most people paying don't (yet) use the services that take up most of the budget.
    Indeed.

    For any significant increase in spending in other areas or capital investment or to reduce the deficit there has to be cuts in some combination of health, pensions and welfare.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,196

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
    No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.

    I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.

    Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
    It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
    Yes. It creates pressure on Iran to make concessions in negotiations.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,222
    edited April 12

    The Tories are clearly better than Reform.

    However they need to apologise and accept that austerity is responsible for most of the social problems like shoplifting we now all see on the rise. It was perfectly possible to cut spending and not gut the country in the way they did.

    Spending wasn't cut.

    Cuts in some areas were more than matched by increases in others.

    Now it would be easy for any political party to acknowledge that these spending increases (mostly for the benefit of oldies ** ) were mistakes and promise to reverse them.

    As I'm not aware that any political party is advocating doing that we must assume that they think those spending increases were justifiable and hence the related cuts in others areas were also justifiable.

    ** Another was cutting defence spending to fund an increase in Foreign Aid so that the UK would become an 'Aid Superpower'.
    They cut thousands of police officers. They should apologise.
    Do you think that police numbers are so low that when hundreds of kids are literally filming themselves vandalising and looting stores and posting it on social media, they only have the manpower to make two arrests?

    Or do you think the masterly inactivity might have some other causes.
    It’s not the only cause but cutting them cannot have helped. Surely even you can agree about that.

    What was the point in cutting them in the first place? What did it achieve?
    I am not defending the useless May administration - but wasn't she post-austerity anyway?
    Theresa May cut thousands of police as Home Secretary, under Cameron and Osborne's Plan A austerity.

    Boris's 2019 election ran against this, pledging to recruit thousands of police. Running against your own party's record is a feature of British politics.
    So again I ask, why did we cut them? What on earth were they thinking?
    By coincidence...

    Shoplifting rife, police overwhelmed, an angry public – the trail leads back to one person: Theresa May
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/apr/12/shoplifting-police-public-theresa-may-home-secretary
    'Overwhelmed' - sure overwhelmed somehow by these meet ups, OK. Then after it, when you're not overwhelmed, to make TWO ARRESTS. You can't put that down to being overwhelmed, that is deliberately pulling punches.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,792
    edited April 12
    Ratters said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    Boarded ?
    I'm not entirely sure that the Chinese government would be chill with that.
    So what would they do ?
    Send warships to escort the tankers.
    Warships are not a solution to modern drones - merely an extra target..
    It’s a signal of intent.

    The Chinese shouldn’t take it lying down. That’s my point and the US are proposing a naval blockade.
    Joking aside it's not the worst strategy.

    In my view Iran is overplaying their hand. If they are blocking the Strait - international water - there's no reason for US can't do the same.

    That means no more toll income and significantly reduced oil income (none by sea, I'm not sure what pipelines they have).

    It's certainly a better response than the previous 'end of civilisation genocide' option that Trump floated before his deadline.
    I doubt the Iranian regime gives a tinker's cuss about a bit of oil revenue. Yes, allow a few of their friends' tankers through for the divisiveness, but the primary objective is to trash the world economy and have everyone blame it on Trump and Israel. So far they've been playing a blinder.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,284
    Might be confirmation bias but a lot of drivers sticking to 50mph on the motorway network in the central belt.

    Such a weird crisis. Slowly edging into it.
  • MelonB said:

    Battlebus said:

    MelonB said:

    Leon said:

    Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways

    I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes

    Narince, Emir, Sultaniye

    And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine

    You have heard of Sultaniye grapes before and have probably eaten them.

    They have two English names: Thompson seedless for the fresh, edible version as commonly seen in your local supermarket; and Sultana for the dried version.

    The Turks make a neutral but crisp wine with them, and very nice it is too.
    Could you suggest where we can get some to try? Need something to while away the time until the 25th.
    Turkish wine? Hard to get decent stuff in English shops, or indeed ethnic shops (unlike Georgian wines which turn up increasingly in Eastern European grocers). Turkish restaurants sell it but they get supplied by wholesalers. And the occasional bottle you’ll get in a Turkish food shop is likely to be overpriced and uninspiring. Best bet by far is to order online from a specialist.
    Vivino can probably sort it. I’ll go have a look
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,849

    @Andy_JS and @williamglenn don’t think Trump is insane. To answer the question.

    See my post on March 13th anticipating this move from Trump.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5485554/#Comment_5485554

    If Trump gets angry about countries cutting deals with Iran to allow their own tankers through the straits, maybe he will start enforcing the blockade instead to make it all or nothing.
    https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2043332533803209016

    "It’s called all in, and all out... We think that numerous countries are going to be helping us with this also, but we’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like, and not people that they don’t like or whatever it is. It’s going to be all or none."
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,085
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways

    I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes

    Narince, Emir, Sultaniye

    And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine

    There’s clearly very much that you don’t know; and from each trip you seem to manage, almost inexplicably, to return still not knowing precisely the same amount that you didn’t know before you set off.
    I’m sorry you’re stuck in the Isle of Wight and now your only friend, a dog, has gone for rape counselling
    I got a flag!

    *air punch in Pamphylia*
    Ok, you got a flag. Now can you go back to your Turkish travelogue. It was much more interesting.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,124

    kle4 said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    Boarded ?
    I'm not entirely sure that the Chinese government would be chill with that.
    So what would they do ?
    Send warships to escort the tankers.
    Warships are not a solution to modern drones - merely an extra target..
    It’s a signal of intent.

    The Chinese shouldn’t take it lying down. That’s my point and the US are proposing a naval blockade.
    Iran is trying to control the Strait over the heads of all the other Gulf countries. Is that acceptable?

    It strikes me that the vast majority of the world should want the Strait opened and all countries of the region to be able to export through it. It's ludicrous to allow Iran de facto sovereignty. Trump is grotesque but people are losing their minds here.
    He's trying to solve a resolve a problem he caused. Obviously the Iranians having de facto control is a terrible idea, but absent the longer term solutions to get around the Hormuz problem are his efforts going to resolve it in the short term? We shall see.
    No idea whether it will work. But by controlling the Strait Iran has effectively declared economic war on its neighbours. China needs to be flushed out here.
    Why do they ?

    What have they done wrong ? Nothing here. Trump and Bibi started this while in the middle of negotiations with Iran and it’s a disaster.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,463

    Trump reminds me of a teacher I had who told me "if you want to stay in this classroom you need to get out now".
    Trump: "If you don't open the Strait then I'll close it."

    We had a PE teacher who was infamous for telling the class to "get into groups of four and form a triangle." May well have been apocryphal.
    One in the centre, and the other three at the corners. Simples.
    I have always wondered if that's what he meant. Although I think more likely the story was made up. It was certainly the kind of thing one could easily imagine him saying, which makes it more likely to have been fabricated by some smart arse kid.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956

    @Andy_JS and @williamglenn don’t think Trump is insane. To answer the question.

    See my post on March 13th anticipating this move from Trump.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5485554/#Comment_5485554

    If Trump gets angry about countries cutting deals with Iran to allow their own tankers through the straits, maybe he will start enforcing the blockade instead to make it all or nothing.
    https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2043332533803209016

    "It’s called all in, and all out... We think that numerous countries are going to be helping us with this also, but we’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like, and not people that they don’t like or whatever it is. It’s going to be all or none."
    Starmer's Coalition of the "not very willing to be involved" will be right behind you Donald...
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,085

    Ratters said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    Boarded ?
    I'm not entirely sure that the Chinese government would be chill with that.
    So what would they do ?
    Send warships to escort the tankers.
    Warships are not a solution to modern drones - merely an extra target..
    It’s a signal of intent.

    The Chinese shouldn’t take it lying down. That’s my point and the US are proposing a naval blockade.
    Joking aside it's not the worst strategy.

    In my view Iran is overplaying their hand. If they are blocking the Strait - international water - there's no reason for US can't do the same.

    That means no more toll income and significantly reduced oil income (none by sea, I'm not sure what pipelines they have).

    It's certainly a better response than the previous 'end of civilisation genocide' option that Trump floated before his deadline.
    I doubt the Iranian regime gives a tinker's cuss about a bit of oil revenue. Yes, allow a few of their friends' tankers through for the divisiveness, but the primary objective is to trash the world economy and have everyone blame it on Trump and Israel. So far they've been playing a blinder.
    Mind you, they are playing the tactical equivalent of Spurs.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,504

    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    How is that different to a Chinese tanker laden with Saudi oil gets stopped by Iranian threats ?
    What!?
    You may not have noticed but Iran has been impeding shipping from the Gulf countries by making threats.

    Trump has now made threats to impede shipping from Iran.

    Same coin, opposite side.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,805

    @Andy_JS and @williamglenn don’t think Trump is insane. To answer the question.

    See my post on March 13th anticipating this move from Trump.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5485554/#Comment_5485554

    If Trump gets angry about countries cutting deals with Iran to allow their own tankers through the straits, maybe he will start enforcing the blockade instead to make it all or nothing.
    https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2043332533803209016

    "It’s called all in, and all out... We think that numerous countries are going to be helping us with this also, but we’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like, and not people that they don’t like or whatever it is. It’s going to be all or none."
    Starmer's Coalition of the "not very willing to be involved" will be right behind you Donald...
    Coalition of the "fine, we'll send a single boat and a senior officer as a token gesture, jeez"
  • I take it back, even Vivino cannot supply a Turkish white wine

    They offer white wine from Belarus, Canada, Korea, Azerbaijan and Indonesia (seriously). But no white wine from Turkey

    I shall bring a few home for PB-ers
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,947

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
    No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.

    I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.

    Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
    It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
    It fucks everyone from India to Bangladesh to Japan & SK. This is America alienating every SEasian ally they need against China. China a country with 9 months of oil in reserve. How much oil do we hold? How much jet fuel?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,504
    kle4 said:

    @Andy_JS and @williamglenn don’t think Trump is insane. To answer the question.

    See my post on March 13th anticipating this move from Trump.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5485554/#Comment_5485554

    If Trump gets angry about countries cutting deals with Iran to allow their own tankers through the straits, maybe he will start enforcing the blockade instead to make it all or nothing.
    https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2043332533803209016

    "It’s called all in, and all out... We think that numerous countries are going to be helping us with this also, but we’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like, and not people that they don’t like or whatever it is. It’s going to be all or none."
    Starmer's Coalition of the "not very willing to be involved" will be right behind you Donald...
    Coalition of the "fine, we'll send a single boat and a senior officer as a token gesture, jeez"
    We could send a boat crewed with all the superfluous admirals.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,085
    Eabhal said:

    Might be confirmation bias but a lot of drivers sticking to 50mph on the motorway network in the central belt.

    Such a weird crisis. Slowly edging into it.

    If it’s the M8 between Newhouse and Whitburn, it’s been happening for years. Usually a HGV at 50mph attempting to pass another HGV at 49 mph, with a two mile tailback behind it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,805

    kle4 said:

    @Andy_JS and @williamglenn don’t think Trump is insane. To answer the question.

    See my post on March 13th anticipating this move from Trump.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5485554/#Comment_5485554

    If Trump gets angry about countries cutting deals with Iran to allow their own tankers through the straits, maybe he will start enforcing the blockade instead to make it all or nothing.
    https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2043332533803209016

    "It’s called all in, and all out... We think that numerous countries are going to be helping us with this also, but we’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like, and not people that they don’t like or whatever it is. It’s going to be all or none."
    Starmer's Coalition of the "not very willing to be involved" will be right behind you Donald...
    Coalition of the "fine, we'll send a single boat and a senior officer as a token gesture, jeez"
    We could send a boat crewed with all the superfluous admirals.
    I assume most haven't been on a boat in years, I doubt they'd know port from starboard.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,947

    Scott_xP said:

    So a Chinese tanker laden with Iranian oil is going to get stopped by US ships.

    And if it doesn't stop?

    How is that different to a Chinese tanker laden with Saudi oil gets stopped by Iranian threats ?
    What!?
    You may not have noticed but Iran has been impeding shipping from the Gulf countries by making threats.

    Trump has now made threats to impede shipping from Iran.

    Same coin, opposite side.
    Can you not see the difference between Iran impeding Chinese tankers and the USN doing so?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,791

    @Andy_JS and @williamglenn don’t think Trump is insane. To answer the question.

    See my post on March 13th anticipating this move from Trump.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5485554/#Comment_5485554

    If Trump gets angry about countries cutting deals with Iran to allow their own tankers through the straits, maybe he will start enforcing the blockade instead to make it all or nothing.
    https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2043332533803209016

    "It’s called all in, and all out... We think that numerous countries are going to be helping us with this also, but we’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like, and not people that they don’t like or whatever it is. It’s going to be all or none."
    Starmer's Coalition of the "not very willing to be involved" will be right behind you Donald...
    There are some Irish farmers who are quite good at this sort of thing ...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,448

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
    No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.

    I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.

    Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
    It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
    This idea is frowned upon by some here who believe it might upset the Chinese.
    I can see they could have a gripe about oil they have already paid for. Anything else, nah.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
    No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.

    I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.

    Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
    It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
    It fucks everyone from India to Bangladesh to Japan & SK. This is America alienating every SEasian ally they need against China. China a country with 9 months of oil in reserve. How much oil do we hold? How much jet fuel?
    Who benefits from Iran controlling the Strait? There's a theory doing the rounds that the Gulf states wouldn't accept the Iran toll anyway and would instead wait for prices to go up and force the world's hand to act.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,085
    kle4 said:

    @Andy_JS and @williamglenn don’t think Trump is insane. To answer the question.

    See my post on March 13th anticipating this move from Trump.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5485554/#Comment_5485554

    If Trump gets angry about countries cutting deals with Iran to allow their own tankers through the straits, maybe he will start enforcing the blockade instead to make it all or nothing.
    https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/2043332533803209016

    "It’s called all in, and all out... We think that numerous countries are going to be helping us with this also, but we’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like, and not people that they don’t like or whatever it is. It’s going to be all or none."
    Starmer's Coalition of the "not very willing to be involved" will be right behind you Donald...
    Coalition of the "fine, we'll send a single boat and a senior officer as a token gesture, jeez"
    Starmer to Trump. “You supply the warships. We’ll supply the admirals.”
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956
    edited April 12
    Sergio just took a chunk out of the tee box at No. 2, smashed the water cooler, broke the head off his driver. now he's carrying Jon Rahm's bag down the fairway. quite the start....

    I am sure many a Sunday golfer can relate.

    I used to play cricket with a guy who wasn't a very good batter, but seemed to lose his shit every week when he got out early. He must have gone through 10+ bats a year. His day job, top cancer surgeon.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,504
    Of course Trump doesn't need to actually physically stop any third party shipping.

    Destroying and/or mining any Iranian harbours would have the same effect.

    Alternatively any shipping to Iran could be stopped unless it paid a massive toll to the Gulf States (with Trump getting a secret slice of the action).

  • TazTaz Posts: 28,124

    Battlebus said:

    MelonB said:

    Battlebus said:

    MelonB said:

    Leon said:

    Turkey is so weirdly unexplored, and unappreciated in some ways

    I’m now in an agreeable fish restaurant having a late lunch with my guides and we’re drinking a very palatable white wine called Cankaya which is made of these grapes

    Narince, Emir, Sultaniye

    And I’ve never heard of any of them. In fact I didn’t even know Turkey now makes jolly good white wine

    You have heard of Sultaniye grapes before and have probably eaten them.

    They have two English names: Thompson seedless for the fresh, edible version as commonly seen in your local supermarket; and Sultana for the dried version.

    The Turks make a neutral but crisp wine with them, and very nice it is too.
    Could you suggest where we can get some to try? Need something to while away the time until the 25th.
    Turkish wine? Hard to get decent stuff in English shops, or indeed ethnic shops (unlike Georgian wines which turn up increasingly in Eastern European grocers). Turkish restaurants sell it but they get supplied by wholesalers. And the occasional bottle you’ll get in a Turkish food shop is likely to be overpriced and uninspiring. Best bet by far is to order online from a specialist.
    Had some Georgian wine before. A good robust red to go with a steak.
    Armenian wine is a good option too.
    I’ve had it before, it’s really nice
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,124

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
    No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.

    I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.

    Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
    It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
    This idea is frowned upon by some here who believe it might upset the Chinese.
    I frown upon the whole shambles we find ourselves in now.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,947

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    What would be mean by a blockade? Surely they want ships to come through, so I assume they mean they'll be taking over securing passage.

    Currently I believe the only ships going through the Strait are Chinese ships taking Iranian oil to China...
    No, there are more than that, quite a few to India.

    I suspect fewer transiting into the Gulf. No one wants to be stuck there.

    Blockading the Strait is an interesting approach to opening the strait!
    It prevents Iran benefiting from selective passage
    It fucks everyone from India to Bangladesh to Japan & SK. This is America alienating every SEasian ally they need against China. China a country with 9 months of oil in reserve. How much oil do we hold? How much jet fuel?
    Who benefits from Iran controlling the Strait? There's a theory doing the rounds that the Gulf states wouldn't accept the Iran toll anyway and would instead wait for prices to go up and force the world's hand to act.
    Well lets blockade it then! And when they start starving in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan what is going to happen next? You know we import near 50% of our calories, yes?

    America is done and we should detach ourselves from the pariah states that inflicted this catastrophe on the world.
This discussion has been closed.