All Eyes Turn to Hungary – politicalbetting.com

System · April 12

All Eyes Turn to Hungary – politicalbetting.com

Polls in Hungary close at 6pm UK time (7pm in Hungary). Vote counting begins immediately, with the first preliminary results expected to start appearing from around 7pm UK time.

Read the full story here

Nigelb · April 12

Looks

eek · April 12

So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran

BatteryCorrectHorse · April 12

So oil price goes straight back up then?

Scott_xP · April 12

@szabolcspanyi.bsky.social‬

Hungary’s turnout is BRUTAL: 37.98% by 11am (2022: 22.77%), pointing to 75–80% or more overall. In such a scenario, Orbán’s chances look slim, and it’s unlikely any party beyond Fidesz and Péter Magyar’s Tisza clears the 5% threshold.

https://bsky.app/profile/szabolcspanyi.bsky.social/post/3mjc2kd3nvs2v

Richard_Tyndall · April 12

If Orban tries to claim he has won in a contested election, or even if he clearly loses, how far do we think he would go to stay in power? I don't really have the measure of the man enough to know what he would likely do in that situation.

nico67 · April 12

The lowest turnout at 11.am is 33.10% in Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county.

That had the highest Fidesz vote share in 2022 .

Scott_xP · April 12

Richard_Tyndall said:
If Orban tries to claim he has won in a contested election, or even if he clearly loses, how far do we think he would go to stay in power? I don't really have the measure of the man enough to know what he would likely do in that situation.

The bigger question/problem is how far Putin and Trump will go to keep him in power

MarqueeMark · April 12

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran

So much winning...

With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.

Clutch_Brompton · April 12

OT - Are we sure the Hungarian vote counting didn't begin and end quite some time before any votes were cast?

I wouldn't bet on elections in the likes of Hungary or Turkey until they are proved 'true events'. I'm not yet sure whether to add the US to that list - November will give us all a pretty good idea.

Roger · April 12

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran

But at least he didn't kill a Pope

FrancisUrquhart · April 12

MarqueeMark said:

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran
So much winning...

With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.

With respect to MarqueeMark, aren't all the eyes on if Rory will blow the Masters later on today?

eek · April 12

Roger said:

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran
But at least he didn't kill a Pope

No the Pope just announced that for "reasons" he won't be visiting the country of his birth and rejected the invite....

MelonB · April 12

MarqueeMark said:

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran
So much winning...

With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.

I’ve been looking at the pump prices - as have billions of people around the world - and marvelling that these extreme, visible illustrations of consumer inflation are down to the ill-thought out decisions of two old men: Trump and Netanyahu. They have a more direct impact on my wallet than Starmer, Reeves or any other British politician.

nico67 · April 12

Richard_Tyndall said:
If Orban tries to claim he has won in a contested election, or even if he clearly loses, how far do we think he would go to stay in power? I don't really have the measure of the man enough to know what he would likely do in that situation.

It’s impossible to say as he’s not been in this position before .

There are things he can do before the seating of the new parliament by further changing the constitution. He could for example change that to make the President more powerful and then get his lapdogs to put him in that post . Yes it sounds outlandish !

It really depends on the margin of victory if Tisza do win . It’s more difficult for Orban if it’s a large win , the country though would descend into chaos with huge civil unrest .

rottenborough · April 12

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034

eek · April 12

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034

Still has the fundamental flaw that he isn't an MP so can't even stand..

Roger · April 12

This looks like fun............

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_BZNstUNDQ

occasionalranter · April 12

MarqueeMark said:

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran
So much winning...

With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.

A few months ago I decided to switch most of my SIPP and ISA from one ETF to another. By complete fluke, I picked 27th February to sell the old ETF. I still haven't bought the replacement ETF, am just sitting in cash (well, some cash, some short term MMF). I think I'll sit tight a little longer...

Richard_Tyndall · April 12

FPT

Mexicanpete said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

IanB2 said:
Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
Rawnsley is right about mistakes that persist in being punishing for years.

Joining the EEC was one such mistake. It took over 40 years of punishment to correct that one.
Richard, I respect your position on sovereignty but I believe you are wrong. The EU was and is a terribly cumbersome and corrupt organisation, designed by the French for the French, but so much good came from the EU, not least war foes operating as trading partners harmonising best social practice across the 28 nation states, until we left.

The mere fact that Putin wanted and wants to further destabilise the EU is testament to a key component of how it has worked since the Treaty of Rome.

Yes there is a lot of rule breaking like Italian steel tariff nonsense, but making it work better from within would have resolved that rather than Farage's Brexit.

The problem with this view is that it has clearly been proved wrong. We tried for more than 40 years to make the EEC/EU an entity that was more aligned with our ethos, not least on abiding by rules. We failed, utterly. The idea that the answer to our issues with the EU was to continue to do just what we had done for the previous 4 decades is clearly ludicrous.

And as I have repeated often before. What kept the peace in Europe for all those years was not the EU but the balance of power created by the Cold War. Neither East nor West were willing to risk an escalation in Europe. Hence the reason that, as soon as that balance ended, we got a war in Europe encouraged in part by members of the EU.

nico67 · April 12

Bear in mind elections in Hungary in the past have been free but not fair .

So although the media has been overwhelmingly towards Fidesz the actual vote count is much more difficult to tamper with as there are observers from the parties as the votes are counted .

FrancisUrquhart · April 12

eek said:

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034
Still has the fundamental flaw that he isn't an MP so can't even stand..

"I have a cunning plan, sir."

viewcode · April 12

FrancisUrquhart said:
Team Burnham Is Getting Organised Ahead Of The May Elections

https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/burnham-bides-his-time

Time to crash the clown car again.

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034

IIUC...

He can't become leader of the Labour Party unless he's a MP
He can't become a MP unless he's a candidate
He can't become a candidate without central Labour Party approval
He can't get central Labour Party approval without Starmer approval
He can't get Starmer approval because Starmer wants to keep his job...

...so Burnham won't get to number 10.

MarqueeMark · April 12

occasionalranter said:

MarqueeMark said:

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran
So much winning...

With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.
A few months ago I decided to switch most of my SIPP and ISA from one ETF to another. By complete fluke, I picked 27th February to sell the old ETF. I still haven't bought the replacement ETF, am just sitting in cash (well, some cash, some short term MMF). I think I'll sit tight a little longer...

Shame you didn't put it in oil stocks...

SandyRentool · April 12

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034

Am I missing something?

What makes double leadership loser and pre-conference embarrassment Andy Burnham such a political titan that so many want him to be PM?

MarqueeMark · April 12

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034

As my grandpa used to say "Might as well wish in one hand - and shit in the other..."

MarqueeMark · April 12

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran
So much winning...

With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.
With respect to MarqueeMark, aren't all the eyes on if Rory will blow the Masters later on today?

Playing safe yesterday didn't suit him - he'll be out swinging later.

FrancisUrquhart · April 12

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran
So much winning...

With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.
With respect to MarqueeMark, aren't all the eyes on if Rory will blow the Masters later on today?
Playing safe yesterday didn't suit him - he'll be out swinging later.

Hopefully on the course not the Tiger way?

viewcode · April 12

SandyRentool said:

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034
Am I missing something?

What makes double leadership loser and pre-conference embarrassment Andy Burnham such a political titan that so many want him to be PM?

I think it's desperation. Burnham was unimpressive in the leader election he was in (the one he lost to Jeremy Corbyn) and if he has improved it's not known to me (has he?). He's the straw being clutched by the drowning man.

TheScreamingEagles · April 12

Police officer: Why is that alligator driving your car ?

Me: Sorry officer But he has to!

Police officer: Why does he have to?

Me: Because he's my navi-gator, I'd be lost without him!!!

TheScreamingEagles · April 12

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran
So much winning...

With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.
With respect to MarqueeMark, aren't all the eyes on if Rory will blow the Masters later on today?
Playing safe yesterday didn't suit him - he'll be out swinging later.
Hopefully on the course not the Tiger way?

Tiger Woods’s 18 best holes?

FrancisUrquhart · April 12

TheScreamingEagles said:
Police officer: Why is that alligator driving your car ?

Me: Sorry officer But he has to!

Police officer: Why does he have to?

Me: Because he's my navi-gator, I'd be lost without him!!!

That's so bad, it nearly Radiohead Live At Glastonbury bad....lets call it Justin Bieber at Cochella bad?

MattW · April 12

On Popes, here's one I ran across earlier, of the Pope suggesting that Donald Trump is probably not a Christian.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnv6tIRW86A

(This was Pope Francis in February 2016, btw)

Background: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/pope-says-trump-is-not-christian-for-plan-to-build-a-wall-on-u-s-mexico-border

FrancisUrquhart · April 12

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran
So much winning...

With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.
With respect to MarqueeMark, aren't all the eyes on if Rory will blow the Masters later on today?
Playing safe yesterday didn't suit him - he'll be out swinging later.
Hopefully on the course not the Tiger way?
Tiger Wood's 18 best holes?

I was in the North America the other week when he crashed his car. The amount of covering the US media are willing to do for him is quite incredible.

This is the 3rd time this has happened. He is worth a squillion dollars, why these people don't just have a driver I have no idea, especially if you are off your tits on painkillers all the time.

I never understand all the footballers driving them around either. If my job required my legs to be fresh, the last thing I want to be doing is stop starting my incredibly uncomfortable super car in 20-30mph traffic every day. I want to sit in the back of a large executive car and relax.

nico67 · April 12

Something to bear in mind re the diaspora vote and this connects with the Romanian election last year .

It remains to be seen how much impact this might have but it could be an issue .

https://www.barrons.com/news/hungary-s-orban-collateral-damage-in-romania-s-election-ae705be7

FrancisUrquhart · April 12

The status of Britain’s Cypriot military bases is not up for negotiation, the Armed Forces minister has told The Telegraph.
In an exclusive interview, Al Carns insisted that surrendering sovereignty over Akrotiri and Dhekelia would be out of the question during imminent showdown talks with the Cypriot government.
“We have to be really clear on this, the legal status of the sovereign base areas is rock solid,” said the former senior officer in the Royal Marines.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/04/12/uk-military-bases-cyprus-not-up-for-negotiation

Has this been cleared by Lord Hermer against his interpretation of international law?

eek · April 12

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran
So much winning...

With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.
With respect to MarqueeMark, aren't all the eyes on if Rory will blow the Masters later on today?
Playing safe yesterday didn't suit him - he'll be out swinging later.
Hopefully on the course not the Tiger way?
Tiger Wood's 18 best holes?
I was in the North America the other week when he crashed his car. The amount of covering the US media are willing to do for him is quite incredible.

This is the 3rd time this has happened. He is worth a squillion dollars, why these people don't just have a driver I have no idea, especially if you are off your tits on painkillers all the time.

I never understand all the footballers driving them around either. If my job required my legs to be fresh, the last thing I want to be doing is stop starting my incredibly uncomfortable super car in 20-30mph traffic every day. I want to sit in the back of a large executive car and relax.

Most modern cars have automatic stop start crawling built into their adaptive Cruise control.

welshowl · April 12

TheScreamingEagles said:
Police officer: Why is that alligator driving your car ?

Me: Sorry officer But he has to!

Police officer: Why does he have to?

Me: Because he's my navi-gator, I'd be lost without him!!!

I trust the car was a Porsche Cayman?

FrancisUrquhart · April 12

eek said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran
So much winning...

With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.
With respect to MarqueeMark, aren't all the eyes on if Rory will blow the Masters later on today?
Playing safe yesterday didn't suit him - he'll be out swinging later.
Hopefully on the course not the Tiger way?
Tiger Wood's 18 best holes?
I was in the North America the other week when he crashed his car. The amount of covering the US media are willing to do for him is quite incredible.

This is the 3rd time this has happened. He is worth a squillion dollars, why these people don't just have a driver I have no idea, especially if you are off your tits on painkillers all the time.

I never understand all the footballers driving them around either. If my job required my legs to be fresh, the last thing I want to be doing is stop starting my incredibly uncomfortable super car in 20-30mph traffic every day. I want to sit in the back of a large executive car and relax.
Most modern cars have automatic stop start crawling built into their adaptive Cruise control.

Yeah but thats not fun. Doesn't everybody turn off all that shit? The engine cut out thing is the first thing to go for me.

kinabalu · April 12

viewcode said:

SandyRentool said:

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034
Am I missing something?

What makes double leadership loser and pre-conference embarrassment Andy Burnham such a political titan that so many want him to be PM?
I think it's desperation. Burnham was unimpressive in the leader election he was in (the one he lost to Jeremy Corbyn) and if he has improved it's not known to me (has he?). He's the straw being clutched by the drowning man.

I don't want Burnham but tbf he has gained charisma and stature since he ran and lost to Corbyn in 2015.

kinabalu · April 12

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran
So much winning...

With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.
With respect to MarqueeMark, aren't all the eyes on if Rory will blow the Masters later on today?
Playing safe yesterday didn't suit him - he'll be out swinging later.

He didn't play safe as much as badly. Still, joint lead with 18 to play. He'd have taken that.

Luckyguy1983 · April 12

TheScreamingEagles said:
Police officer: Why is that alligator driving your car ?

Me: Sorry officer But he has to!

Police officer: Why does he have to?

Me: Because he's my navi-gator, I'd be lost without him!!!

Why is the navigator in the driving seat?

BatteryCorrectHorse · April 12

https://x.com/dailymail/status/2043075314989912197

Gastropub landlady blasts 'tight-fisted' Labour MP for only ordering a starter - and failing to tip

Hilarious and they wonder why pubs are dying

Theuniondivvie · April 12

Luckyguy1983 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Police officer: Why is that alligator driving your car ?

Me: Sorry officer But he has to!

Police officer: Why does he have to?

Me: Because he's my navi-gator, I'd be lost without him!!!
Why is the navigator in the driving seat?

You gonna argue with him?

noneoftheabove · April 12

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
https://x.com/dailymail/status/2043075314989912197

Gastropub landlady blasts 'tight-fisted' Labour MP for only ordering a starter - and failing to tip

Hilarious and they wonder why pubs are dying

She has achieved the impossible! The Daily Mail commentariat are fiercely defending a Labour MP.

I propose we put her in charge of US-Iran negotiations next.

MarqueeMark · April 12

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran
So much winning...

With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.
With respect to MarqueeMark, aren't all the eyes on if Rory will blow the Masters later on today?
Playing safe yesterday didn't suit him - he'll be out swinging later.
Hopefully on the course not the Tiger way?
Tiger Wood's 18 best holes?
I was in the North America the other week when he crashed his car. The amount of covering the US media are willing to do for him is quite incredible.

This is the 3rd time this has happened. He is worth a squillion dollars, why these people don't just have a driver I have no idea, especially if you are off your tits on painkillers all the time.

I never understand all the footballers driving them around either. If my job required my legs to be fresh, the last thing I want to be doing is stop starting my incredibly uncomfortable super car in 20-30mph traffic every day. I want to sit in the back of a large executive car and relax.

Set up a company hiring out Ferraris to top sports stars. You'll get to spend all day talking to them in a top end car. Getting lots of admiring looks from the ladies (well, those that are impressed by that sort of thing...) What's not to love?

MarqueeMark · April 12

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
So oil price goes straight back up then?

No doubt that is what the, er, "Informed" money is backing...

Cookie · April 12

FrancisUrquhart said:

eek said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran
So much winning...

With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.
With respect to MarqueeMark, aren't all the eyes on if Rory will blow the Masters later on today?
Playing safe yesterday didn't suit him - he'll be out swinging later.
Hopefully on the course not the Tiger way?
Tiger Wood's 18 best holes?
I was in the North America the other week when he crashed his car. The amount of covering the US media are willing to do for him is quite incredible.

This is the 3rd time this has happened. He is worth a squillion dollars, why these people don't just have a driver I have no idea, especially if you are off your tits on painkillers all the time.

I never understand all the footballers driving them around either. If my job required my legs to be fresh, the last thing I want to be doing is stop starting my incredibly uncomfortable super car in 20-30mph traffic every day. I want to sit in the back of a large executive car and relax.
Most modern cars have automatic stop start crawling built into their adaptive Cruise control.
Yeah but thats not fun. Doesn't everybody turn off all that shit? The engine cut out thing is the first thing to go for me.

Why? I dislike most innivations in cars since 2007 but I think that's a great feature. I don't want to be sat idling away pointlessly.

rottenborough · April 12

Mystery punter wins £800,000 on National as bookie regrets dangerous bet

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/racing/2026/04/11/grand-national-mystery-punter-wins-800000-bet-bookie-regret/

ydoethur · April 12

rottenborough said:
Mystery punter wins £800,000 on National as bookie regrets dangerous bet

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/racing/2026/04/11/grand-national-mystery-punter-wins-800000-bet-bookie-regret/

If we can keep Hegseth to betting on the gees and not on the next compensatory action of Mushroom Shaped the world will be much safer for all of us.

FrancisUrquhart · April 12

rottenborough said:
Mystery punter wins £800,000 on National as bookie regrets dangerous bet

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/racing/2026/04/11/grand-national-mystery-punter-wins-800000-bet-bookie-regret/

The talk was JP McManus. It can only be a very small number of people, not only the size of the bet, but that a bookie on course would even consider taking it. That is very different from organising a big bet via online.

eek · April 12

MarqueeMark said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
So oil price goes straight back up then?
No doubt that is what the, er, "Informed" money is backing...

Well the talks yesterday didn't seem to have done anything that will allow the strait to open to all the ships waiting to pass through it so it's really only a partial ceasefire which hasn't changed a single part of the issue that will send the world economy into a depression

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn4v0xm9y0kt

OldKingCole · April 12

rottenborough said:
Mystery punter wins £800,000 on National as bookie regrets dangerous bet

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/racing/2026/04/11/grand-national-mystery-punter-wins-800000-bet-bookie-regret/

Sad and miserable bookie as a result of trading? What's not to like!

JohnLilburne · April 12

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
https://x.com/dailymail/status/2043075314989912197

Gastropub landlady blasts 'tight-fisted' Labour MP for only ordering a starter - and failing to tip

Hilarious and they wonder why pubs are dying

I have actually been in the Rat at Anick, back then however it was a bit of a drinkers' pub owned by a semi-retired accountant as a bit of a hobby. And probably to cover expenses while property prices rose.

Omnium · April 12

OldKingCole said:

rottenborough said:
Mystery punter wins £800,000 on National as bookie regrets dangerous bet

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/racing/2026/04/11/grand-national-mystery-punter-wins-800000-bet-bookie-regret/
Sad and miserable bookie as a result of trading? What's not to like!

Well we actually want them to do amazingly well with the likes of horse racing. Then we can carefully extract our political betting stipends.

BatteryCorrectHorse · April 12

Will Richard Tice be resigning? After all be called for Rayner to resign when she didn’t pay her taxes.

Omnium · April 12

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Will Richard Tice be resigning? After all be called for Rayner to resign when she didn’t pay her taxes.

I know little about the man, but my impression is that he's a dire man selling stale sandwiches.

HYUFD · April 12

Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories

eek · April 12

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Will Richard Tice be resigning? After all be called for Rayner to resign when she didn’t pay her taxes.

Of course not - tax is for little / poorer people. This hasn't even got the technicalities that made Rayner's issue understandable, the rules on REITs are very clear cut if you take the 30 seconds it requires to read them.

BartholomewRoberts · April 12

TheScreamingEagles said:
Police officer: Why is that alligator driving your car ?

Me: Sorry officer But he has to!

Police officer: Why does he have to?

Me: Because he's my navi-gator, I'd be lost without him!!!

When I die, I have just two requests.

I wish to be scattered across my favourite places.

I do not wish to be cremated.

LostPassword · April 12

Richard_Tyndall said:
If Orban tries to claim he has won in a contested election, or even if he clearly loses, how far do we think he would go to stay in power? I don't really have the measure of the man enough to know what he would likely do in that situation.

It's a worrying sign that there is such a disparity between independent pollsters and government-aligned pollsters. That looks like an attempt to provide cover for outright falsifying the election result, or for declaring that it was stolen by the opposition.

The question then is the extent to which state institutions have been subverted by Orban, so that the election can be stolen/annulled within the constitution, which would require a revolution to overthrow.

I only have the vaguest of impressions, which is that the diversion by Orban of the judiciary, etc, has been quite extensive, but also these are all individuals and they have the potential to break with Orban if they are personally discontented - which if the independent pollsters are correct could be quite possible. I don't think the physical intimidation in Hungary is at such a level that people will toe the line out of fear, as they do in Russia, for example.

It may be that Fidesz will feel that they can survive opposition provided the new government doesn't have a two-thirds supermajority (as that will mean the constitutional changes they made will persist), and return to power once the new government fails in office (as is quite likely in economic terms, given the global and European context).

HYUFD · April 12

viewcode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Team Burnham Is Getting Organised Ahead Of The May Elections

https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/burnham-bides-his-time

Time to crash the clown car again.

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034
IIUC...
He can't become leader of the Labour Party unless he's a MP
He can't become a MP unless he's a candidate
He can't become a candidate without central Labour Party approval
He can't get central Labour Party approval without Starmer approval
He can't get Starmer approval because Starmer wants to keep his job...
...so Burnham won't get to number 10.

Starmer has made clear he could see Burnham as an MP at the next general election but not before, so the NEC will block him from a seat until then

eek · April 12

HYUFD said:
Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories

Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.

MelonB · April 12

We were talking basic French routiers cooking earlier. A surprisingly decent lunch at what I assumed would be the tourist trap Terminus just outside the Gare Du Nord today reminded me that Paris brasseries can deliver the goods when well run.

Small platter of fruits de mer and some white Corbieres (some of the best value wine is Southern French white).

And now into the Sunday afternoon chaos of the Eurostar queue.

HYUFD · April 12

viewcode said:

SandyRentool said:

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034
Am I missing something?

What makes double leadership loser and pre-conference embarrassment Andy Burnham such a political titan that so many want him to be PM?
I think it's desperation. Burnham was unimpressive in the leader election he was in (the one he lost to Jeremy Corbyn) and if he has improved it's not known to me (has he?). He's the straw being clutched by the drowning man.

Had Burnham been elected Labour leader in 2015 not Corbyn, Burnham might have beaten May and Labour won most seats not the Tories in 2017. Electing Corbyn not Burnham arguably cost Labour an extra 7 years in opposition and also ensured Boris as PM delivered a harder Brexit in 2019 than Burnham would have negotiated as PM

Fairliered · April 12

JohnLilburne said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
https://x.com/dailymail/status/2043075314989912197

Gastropub landlady blasts 'tight-fisted' Labour MP for only ordering a starter - and failing to tip

Hilarious and they wonder why pubs are dying
I have actually been in the Rat at Anick, back then however it was a bit of a drinkers' pub owned by a semi-retired accountant as a bit of a hobby. And probably to cover expenses while property prices rose.

I was first taken to the Rat in late 1982, and it had a good reputation for food even then. I remember the date, because our daughter had recently been born, and I bought home a decorated goose egg, which had been made by a local artist, for the top of the christening cake. We still have it.

HYUFD · April 12

eek said:

HYUFD said:
Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories
Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.

Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option

Stuartinromford · April 12

HYUFD said:

viewcode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Team Burnham Is Getting Organised Ahead Of The May Elections

https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/burnham-bides-his-time

Time to crash the clown car again.

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034
IIUC...
He can't become leader of the Labour Party unless he's a MP
He can't become a MP unless he's a candidate
He can't become a candidate without central Labour Party approval
He can't get central Labour Party approval without Starmer approval
He can't get Starmer approval because Starmer wants to keep his job...
...so Burnham won't get to number 10.
Starmer has made clear he could see Burnham as an MP at the next general election but not before, so the NEC will block him from a seat until then

The next Manc Mayoral election is 2028, so Andy B is basically tied to that role until then. Potentially, that leaves a teeny-weeny window to enter Parliament in late spring 2028, and run for the leadership shortly afterwards. But it is a teeny-weeny window, and it depends on Starmer lasting that long.

What this might just show is that Team Burnham are really really deluded about the practicalities, and the consequences of this continual gizzajobbing.

LostPassword · April 12

SandyRentool said:

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034
Am I missing something?

What makes double leadership loser and pre-conference embarrassment Andy Burnham such a political titan that so many want him to be PM?

Andy Burnham has a political stature measured in microns, but he's been thought to run Greater Manchester as Mayor reasonably well. Can you say anything as positive about any other Labour politician?

He might not be a political colossus, but there's some substance to thinking he might tower over the alternatives.

My judgement is that he would be well-advised to remain as mayor. He seems to be doing good there. It's probably his level. If he ever became PM he's unlikely to do as well. His political instincts are poor, the job is much more difficult and he's shown no sign of knowing what to do to improve on Starmer.

Fairliered · April 12

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

viewcode said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Team Burnham Is Getting Organised Ahead Of The May Elections

https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/burnham-bides-his-time

Time to crash the clown car again.

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034
IIUC...
He can't become leader of the Labour Party unless he's a MP
He can't become a MP unless he's a candidate
He can't become a candidate without central Labour Party approval
He can't get central Labour Party approval without Starmer approval
He can't get Starmer approval because Starmer wants to keep his job...
...so Burnham won't get to number 10.
Starmer has made clear he could see Burnham as an MP at the next general election but not before, so the NEC will block him from a seat until then
The next Manc Mayoral election is 2028, so Andy B is basically tied to that role until then. Potentially, that leaves a teeny-weeny window to enter Parliament in late spring 2028, and run for the leadership shortly afterwards. But it is a teeny-weeny window, and it depends on Starmer lasting that long.

What this might just show is that Team Burnham are really really deluded about the practicalities, and the consequences of this continual gizzajobbing.

The best option would be for Manchester to take over London. The country could be run from Manchester, with London as a branch office. Irrespective of personalities, that would ensure better governance.

Andy_JS · April 12

Implied vote shares from the MoreInCommon MRP, (according to the Sunday TImes).

Ref 28%
Con 21%
Lab 20%
LD 13%
Grn 12%
SNP 3%

Malmesbury · April 12

MarqueeMark said:

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran
So much winning...

With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.

I agree with you on the Middle East.

But Hungary not being the blocker in the EU would be a major shift in the politics of Europe

eek · April 12

HYUFD said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:
Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories
Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option

Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).

ydoethur · April 12

HYUFD said:

viewcode said:

SandyRentool said:

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034
Am I missing something?

What makes double leadership loser and pre-conference embarrassment Andy Burnham such a political titan that so many want him to be PM?
I think it's desperation. Burnham was unimpressive in the leader election he was in (the one he lost to Jeremy Corbyn) and if he has improved it's not known to me (has he?). He's the straw being clutched by the drowning man.
Had Burnham been elected Labour leader in 2015 not Corbyn, Burnham might have beaten May and Labour won most seats not the Tories in 2017. Electing Corbyn not Burnham arguably cost Labour an extra 7 years in opposition and also ensured Boris as PM delivered a harder Brexit in 2019 than Burnham would have negotiated as PM

If Burnham had been elected Labour leader in 2015 it's very unlikely Labour would have collapsed by 2017 and tempted May into her ill starred gamble.

It's not impossible the referendum would have gone the other way and Cameron would in 2018 have been succeeded by Osborne.

Taz · April 12

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
https://x.com/dailymail/status/2043075314989912197

Gastropub landlady blasts 'tight-fisted' Labour MP for only ordering a starter - and failing to tip

Hilarious and they wonder why pubs are dying

It’s a ridiculous comment and it’s a great place to eat. Been there a few times. The Sunday Lunch is very good although there are other good places nearby.

I suspect this will harm them in the short term, not the MP.

Stuartinromford · April 12

LostPassword said:

SandyRentool said:

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034
Am I missing something?

What makes double leadership loser and pre-conference embarrassment Andy Burnham such a political titan that so many want him to be PM?
Andy Burnham has a political stature measured in microns, but he's been thought to run Greater Manchester as Mayor reasonably well. Can you say anything as positive about any other Labour politician?

He might not be a political colossus, but there's some substance to thinking he might tower over the alternatives.

My judgement is that he would be well-advised to remain as mayor. He seems to be doing good there. It's probably his level. If he ever became PM he's unlikely to do as well. His political instincts are poor, the job is much more difficult and he's shown no sign of knowing what to do to improve on Starmer.

Part of the moral here is that Metro Mayor is a significantly easier job than anything at Westminster. I would like to see them having more control of both the tax side of the budget, rather then just spending allowances from the centre, but having someone who does stuff in Ourtown seems to get at the malaise of most of our local surroundings being so dismal.

I think the consequence of that is that we should have more of them.

Taz · April 12

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Will Richard Tice be resigning? After all be called for Rayner to resign when she didn’t pay her taxes.

It looks like taxes were paid but incorrectly. Not simply not paid.

LostPassword · April 12

Stuartinromford said:

LostPassword said:

SandyRentool said:

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034
Am I missing something?

What makes double leadership loser and pre-conference embarrassment Andy Burnham such a political titan that so many want him to be PM?
Andy Burnham has a political stature measured in microns, but he's been thought to run Greater Manchester as Mayor reasonably well. Can you say anything as positive about any other Labour politician?

He might not be a political colossus, but there's some substance to thinking he might tower over the alternatives.

My judgement is that he would be well-advised to remain as mayor. He seems to be doing good there. It's probably his level. If he ever became PM he's unlikely to do as well. His political instincts are poor, the job is much more difficult and he's shown no sign of knowing what to do to improve on Starmer.
Part of the moral here is that Metro Mayor is a significantly easier job than anything at Westminster. I would like to see them having more control of both the tax side of the budget, rather then just spending allowances from the centre, but having someone who does stuff in Ourtown seems to get at the malaise of most of our local surroundings being so dismal.

I think the consequence of that is that we should have more of them.

Part of what makes the job of PM so difficult is that the job is too big. One way to fix that is to give parts of the job to other people, so that the PM can concentrate on their core responsibilities.

Devolving more power is not the threat that the centre sees it as. It would actually help the centre to function more effectively.

eek · April 12

Taz said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Will Richard Tice be resigning? After all be called for Rayner to resign when she didn’t pay her taxes.
It looks like taxes were paid but incorrectly. Not simply not paid.

Withholding taxes are simply to understand, they are paid by company 1 because the other party may not be paying them and the point is HMRC gets the money, company 2 then offsets the withheld tax from their final tax payment.

So the REIT that was controlled by Tice didn't pay the withholding tax it was supposed to pay prior to distributing the money elsewhere.

ydoethur · April 12

Taz said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Will Richard Tice be resigning? After all be called for Rayner to resign when she didn’t pay her taxes.
It looks like taxes were paid but incorrectly. Not simply not paid.

How? Does he not have an accountant to explain these things to him?

williamglenn · April 12

MarqueeMark said:

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran
So much winning...

With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.

The Americans might see it differently.

https://www.ft.com/content/f201105e-cb6c-49ca-9c40-26eb52b41607

‘Fortress China’ shows cracks as Iran war strains supply chains

https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/2042671181535310235

Very cool seeing the wave of empty tankers heading to the US to pick up some desperately needed crude for Hormuz-starved markets.

All the tankers on the map below are empty VLCCs (~2 million barrel capacity each) currently heading for the US Gulf Coast.

ydoethur · April 12

Stuartinromford said:

LostPassword said:

SandyRentool said:

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034
Am I missing something?

What makes double leadership loser and pre-conference embarrassment Andy Burnham such a political titan that so many want him to be PM?
Andy Burnham has a political stature measured in microns, but he's been thought to run Greater Manchester as Mayor reasonably well. Can you say anything as positive about any other Labour politician?

He might not be a political colossus, but there's some substance to thinking he might tower over the alternatives.

My judgement is that he would be well-advised to remain as mayor. He seems to be doing good there. It's probably his level. If he ever became PM he's unlikely to do as well. His political instincts are poor, the job is much more difficult and he's shown no sign of knowing what to do to improve on Starmer.
Part of the moral here is that Metro Mayor is a significantly easier job than anything at Westminster. I would like to see them having more control of both the tax side of the budget, rather then just spending allowances from the centre, but having someone who does stuff in Ourtown seems to get at the malaise of most of our local surroundings being so dismal.

I think the consequence of that is that we should have more of them.

Exhibit A - A 'Massive' Johnson (AKA Bozza).

HYUFD · April 12

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

viewcode said:

SandyRentool said:

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034
Am I missing something?

What makes double leadership loser and pre-conference embarrassment Andy Burnham such a political titan that so many want him to be PM?
I think it's desperation. Burnham was unimpressive in the leader election he was in (the one he lost to Jeremy Corbyn) and if he has improved it's not known to me (has he?). He's the straw being clutched by the drowning man.
Had Burnham been elected Labour leader in 2015 not Corbyn, Burnham might have beaten May and Labour won most seats not the Tories in 2017. Electing Corbyn not Burnham arguably cost Labour an extra 7 years in opposition and also ensured Boris as PM delivered a harder Brexit in 2019 than Burnham would have negotiated as PM
If Burnham had been elected Labour leader in 2015 it's very unlikely Labour would have collapsed by 2017 and tempted May into her ill starred gamble.

It's not impossible the referendum would have gone the other way and Cameron would in 2018 have been succeeded by Osborne.

Maybe not but even had May waited until 2019 or even 2020 to call a general election Burnham could still have beaten her then and it would have been Burnham who got a Brexit deal through the Commons not Boris and we would therefore likely have had a softer Brexit (remember May's EU Withdrawal Agreement deal would not have got through based on the number of Tory rebels against it on the Commons votes even if she had retained Cameron's majority). I doubt it would have changed the EU referendum result and Burnham would likely have beaten Osborne at the next general election even if it did.

Labour electing Corbyn over Burnham in 2015 was arguably the most consequential party leadership result this century, maybe even since WW2

HYUFD · April 12

eek said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:
Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories
Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).

Based on my canvassing over the weekend there are plenty of 2024 Labour and LD voters who will hold their noses and lend their votes to a Tory incumbent just to beat the even more toxic for them Farage's Reform

nico67 · April 12

Latest Hungarian turnout at 1 PM .

54.14%

2022 40%

2002 which had the original record 42.82%

Budapest county now in the lead , turnout at 56.77% .

Fidesz strongest county from 2022 lagging far behind at 47.6% .

Stuartinromford · April 12

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

viewcode said:

SandyRentool said:

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034
Am I missing something?

What makes double leadership loser and pre-conference embarrassment Andy Burnham such a political titan that so many want him to be PM?
I think it's desperation. Burnham was unimpressive in the leader election he was in (the one he lost to Jeremy Corbyn) and if he has improved it's not known to me (has he?). He's the straw being clutched by the drowning man.
Had Burnham been elected Labour leader in 2015 not Corbyn, Burnham might have beaten May and Labour won most seats not the Tories in 2017. Electing Corbyn not Burnham arguably cost Labour an extra 7 years in opposition and also ensured Boris as PM delivered a harder Brexit in 2019 than Burnham would have negotiated as PM
If Burnham had been elected Labour leader in 2015 it's very unlikely Labour would have collapsed by 2017 and tempted May into her ill starred gamble.

It's not impossible the referendum would have gone the other way and Cameron would in 2018 have been succeeded by Osborne.
Maybe not but even had May waited until 2019 or even 2020 to call a general election Burnham could still have beaten her then and it would have been Burnham who got a Brexit deal through the Commons not Boris and we would therefore likely have had a softer Brexit. I doubt it would have changed the EU referendum result and Burnham would likely have beaten Osborne at the next general election even if it did.

Labour electing Corbyn over Burnham in 2015 was arguably the most consequential party leadership result this century, maybe even since WW2

If we're playing "what if"s, wasn't there a really bonkers bit of the post-referendum wars (2019?) where there was talk of the Commons reconfiguring under a different temporary PM to get a much less drastic Brexit on the books? I'm not just imagining that, am I?

From my memory (though it might be a fever dream, it was hard to tell in those days) one of the rocks that sank that idea was that a) Corbyn was clearly unacceptable to be that temporary PM and b) Corbyn was too vain to let anyone else do it.

IanB2 · April 12

LostPassword said:

Stuartinromford said:

LostPassword said:

SandyRentool said:

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034
Am I missing something?

What makes double leadership loser and pre-conference embarrassment Andy Burnham such a political titan that so many want him to be PM?
Andy Burnham has a political stature measured in microns, but he's been thought to run Greater Manchester as Mayor reasonably well. Can you say anything as positive about any other Labour politician?

He might not be a political colossus, but there's some substance to thinking he might tower over the alternatives.

My judgement is that he would be well-advised to remain as mayor. He seems to be doing good there. It's probably his level. If he ever became PM he's unlikely to do as well. His political instincts are poor, the job is much more difficult and he's shown no sign of knowing what to do to improve on Starmer.
Part of the moral here is that Metro Mayor is a significantly easier job than anything at Westminster. I would like to see them having more control of both the tax side of the budget, rather then just spending allowances from the centre, but having someone who does stuff in Ourtown seems to get at the malaise of most of our local surroundings being so dismal.

I think the consequence of that is that we should have more of them.
Part of what makes the job of PM so difficult is that the job is too big. One way to fix that is to give parts of the job to other people, so that the PM can concentrate on their core responsibilities.

Devolving more power is not the threat that the centre sees it as. It would actually help the centre to function more effectively.

And Burnham’s pitch is now heavily weighted towards pluralism, PR, decentralisation, and working co-operatively across the centre left.

Andy_JS · April 12

eek said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:
Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories
Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).

It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.

MelonB · April 12

williamglenn said:

MarqueeMark said:

eek said:
So Vance will this week

1) have visited the loser of the Hungarian election
2) failed to resolve the forthcoming oil crisis by failing to get a deal with Iran
So much winning...

With respect TSE, Hungary is a side-show. All eyes are now looking at the US taking Kharg Island - for leverage in the next round of talks. Straits closed for the foreseeable - for ALL vessels. Oil prices to go way higher. World recession nailed on, quite possibly a much bigger global financial collapse.

Thanks Donald and your administration of fuckwits. Thanks a bunch.
The Americans might see it differently.

https://www.ft.com/content/f201105e-cb6c-49ca-9c40-26eb52b41607

‘Fortress China’ shows cracks as Iran war strains supply chains

https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/2042671181535310235

Very cool seeing the wave of empty tankers heading to the US to pick up some desperately needed crude for Hormuz-starved markets.

All the tankers on the map below are empty VLCCs (~2 million barrel capacity each) currently heading for the US Gulf Coast.

Trolling aside, this is one of the problems for the world. The primary reason the US economy has outperformed the rest of the West since the late noughties is its hydrocarbons industry. It’s become a massive oil and gas exporter. Easy to have nice GDP numbers when you’re a petro-state.

If it’s going to start an extortion racket, Russia-style, including militarily taking out or arrogating competitors as it’s done in Venezuela and accidentally achieved with Iran, then while that’s probably long term suboptimal for it, short term it can do a lot of damage.

A regime in the early stages of crony-capitalistic rent seeking can be a right pain in the arse.

OldKingCole · April 12

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

viewcode said:

SandyRentool said:

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034
Am I missing something?

What makes double leadership loser and pre-conference embarrassment Andy Burnham such a political titan that so many want him to be PM?
I think it's desperation. Burnham was unimpressive in the leader election he was in (the one he lost to Jeremy Corbyn) and if he has improved it's not known to me (has he?). He's the straw being clutched by the drowning man.
Had Burnham been elected Labour leader in 2015 not Corbyn, Burnham might have beaten May and Labour won most seats not the Tories in 2017. Electing Corbyn not Burnham arguably cost Labour an extra 7 years in opposition and also ensured Boris as PM delivered a harder Brexit in 2019 than Burnham would have negotiated as PM
If Burnham had been elected Labour leader in 2015 it's very unlikely Labour would have collapsed by 2017 and tempted May into her ill starred gamble.

It's not impossible the referendum would have gone the other way and Cameron would in 2018 have been succeeded by Osborne.
Maybe not but even had May waited until 2019 or even 2020 to call a general election Burnham could still have beaten her then and it would have been Burnham who got a Brexit deal through the Commons not Boris and we would therefore likely have had a softer Brexit. I doubt it would have changed the EU referendum result and Burnham would likely have beaten Osborne at the next general election even if it did.

Labour electing Corbyn over Burnham in 2015 was arguably the most consequential party leadership result this century, maybe even since WW2
If we're playing "what if"s, wasn't there a really bonkers bit of the post-referendum wars (2019?) where there was talk of the Commons reconfiguring under a different temporary PM to get a much less drastic Brexit on the books? I'm not just imagining that, am I?

From my memory (though it might be a fever dream, it was hard to tell in those days) one of the rocks that sank that idea was that a) Corbyn was clearly unacceptable to be that temporary PM and b) Corbyn was too vain to let anyone else do it.

There's something like that in my memory. Don't think it's quite the same, but that might easily be me.

Gallowgate · April 12

Andy_JS said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:
Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories
Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.

"Unfairly". Did you live between 2010 and 2024?

MarqueeMark · April 12

Gallowgate said:

Andy_JS said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:
Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories
Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
"Unfairly". Did you live between 2010 and 2024?

Given they had to deal with Brexit, Covid, Ukraine, cost of living crisis, it is looking like a golden age of governance compared to Starmer's Labour!

OldKingCole · April 12

Gallowgate said:

Andy_JS said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:
Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories
Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
"Unfairly". Did you live between 2010 and 2024?

Johnson did a lot of harm to their image by expelling quite a few centrist significant figures.

viewcode · April 12

BartholomewRoberts said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Police officer: Why is that alligator driving your car ?

Me: Sorry officer But he has to!

Police officer: Why does he have to?

Me: Because he's my navi-gator, I'd be lost without him!!!
When I die, I have just two requests.

I wish to be scattered across my favourite places.

I do not wish to be cremated.

(buys a large cheese grater)

Gallowgate · April 12

MarqueeMark said:

Gallowgate said:

Andy_JS said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:
Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories
Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
"Unfairly". Did you live between 2010 and 2024?
Given they had to deal with Brexit, Covid, Ukraine, cost of living crisis, it is looking like a golden age of governance compared to Starmer's Labour!

Absolutely not. They are the cause of or have worsened almost all of our current problems. They refused to invest in the future (see: nuclear power, infrastructure, defence), let everything else crumble, and most importantly were the cause of Brexit.

"Unfairly toxic" indeed. The Conservative Party will absolutely never get my vote.

MarqueeMark · April 12

nico67 said:
Latest Hungarian turnout at 1 PM .

54.14%

2022 40%

2002 which had the original record 42.82%

Budapest county now in the lead , turnout at 56.77% .

Fidesz strongest county from 2022 lagging far behind at 47.6% .

If as seems likely, Fidesz voters are underwhelmed with Orban at best - or think he is toxic at worst - it could give us a read-across to the lack of enthusiasm amongst Republicans in the mid-terms in November

MarqueeMark · April 12

Gallowgate said:

MarqueeMark said:

Gallowgate said:

Andy_JS said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:
Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories
Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
"Unfairly". Did you live between 2010 and 2024?
Given they had to deal with Brexit, Covid, Ukraine, cost of living crisis, it is looking like a golden age of governance compared to Starmer's Labour!
Absolutely not. They are the cause of or have worsened almost all of our current problems. They refused to invest in the future (see: nuclear power, infrastructure, defence), let everything else crumble, and most importantly were the cause of Brexit.

"Unfairly toxic" indeed. The Conservative Party will absolutely never get my vote.

None so blind as those who won't see.

For every one of you like that about the Tories, there are currently three like that about Starmer's Labour.

Labour were voted in with a massive majority to improve on what the Tories had done. Not to make things worse.

Gallowgate · April 12

MarqueeMark said:

Gallowgate said:

MarqueeMark said:

Gallowgate said:

Andy_JS said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:
Hungary looks like a clear contest between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the centre right TISZA opposition, with social democratic DK trailing well behind.

If Fidesz win it will provide a boost therefore to Farage and Reform, Trump and Vance and other nationalist right parties as well as Putin.

If TISZA win though that will boost the EU, Democrats and Zelensky and arguably even be encouraging to the UK Tories
Um no it's a vote between the nationalist right governing Fidesz of PM Orban and the only person who has a chance of beating him attached to the winner takes all voting system that everyone finally understands after what happened in 2022.

So the position of the opposition isn't that important, it's the anti Orban option fronted by a centre right leader.
Nonetheless, if a centre right party beats the Orban party as the main anti Orban option that will encourage centre right UK Tories trying to present themselves as the main anti Farage option
Problem is the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate and I say this sat in a constituency where we will have a Tory MP at the next election (he's well remembered and liked so will win the not Labour again vote).
It's true the Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate, but unfairly so in my opinion. A lot of the left-of-centre electorate seem to regard the Tories as extremely right-wing when in reality most of them are just centre-right.
"Unfairly". Did you live between 2010 and 2024?
Given they had to deal with Brexit, Covid, Ukraine, cost of living crisis, it is looking like a golden age of governance compared to Starmer's Labour!
Absolutely not. They are the cause of or have worsened almost all of our current problems. They refused to invest in the future (see: nuclear power, infrastructure, defence), let everything else crumble, and most importantly were the cause of Brexit.

"Unfairly toxic" indeed. The Conservative Party will absolutely never get my vote.
None so blind as those who won't see.

For every one of you like that about the Tories, there are currently three like that about Starmer's Labour.

Labour were voted in with a massive majority to improve on what the Tories had done. Not to make things worse.

The assertion was the "Tories are toxic to a lot of the electorate" and, well, they are. Labour's position really has nothing to do with it.

Theuniondivvie · April 12

nico67 said:
Latest Hungarian turnout at 1 PM .

54.14%

2022 40%

2002 which had the original record 42.82%

Budapest county now in the lead , turnout at 56.77% .

Fidesz strongest county from 2022 lagging far behind at 47.6% .

They’ve turned the mayors against us!

This Fidesz mayor at the village of Bócsa, Bács-Kiskun county (aka Orange County due to its large Fidesz electorate) announced voting for Tisza in a surprise Facebook post. Unbelievable!

https://x.com/tothcsabatibor/status/2043239468631486578?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

nico67 · April 12

MarqueeMark said:

nico67 said:
Latest Hungarian turnout at 1 PM .

54.14%

2022 40%

2002 which had the original record 42.82%

Budapest county now in the lead , turnout at 56.77% .

Fidesz strongest county from 2022 lagging far behind at 47.6% .

If as seems likely, Fidesz voters are underwhelmed with Orban at best - or think he is toxic at worst - it could give us a read-across to the lack of enthusiasm amongst Republicans in the mid-terms in November

It’s possible we’ll still see increased turnout in those stronger Orban areas but they’ll fail to match the increases in other areas .

The final turnout figure in 2022 for Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg was 65.4% . And also it’s likely that any increase would be proportionality more opposition leaning .

HYUFD · April 12

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

viewcode said:

SandyRentool said:

rottenborough said:

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
NEW: Team Burnham’s plan to get him into No 10

— The figures behind that Rayner speech on immigration rules & the soft left’s conclusion that they need to wait for Burnham
— How Burnham has started organising properly, meeting with MPs & unions
— Miliband, Haigh, Nandy now considered by allies to be on board the Burnham train
– He has moved from 50-odd potential nominees in the PLP to triple figures, says a backer

& more 👇

https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2043252891389989034
Am I missing something?

What makes double leadership loser and pre-conference embarrassment Andy Burnham such a political titan that so many want him to be PM?
I think it's desperation. Burnham was unimpressive in the leader election he was in (the one he lost to Jeremy Corbyn) and if he has improved it's not known to me (has he?). He's the straw being clutched by the drowning man.
Had Burnham been elected Labour leader in 2015 not Corbyn, Burnham might have beaten May and Labour won most seats not the Tories in 2017. Electing Corbyn not Burnham arguably cost Labour an extra 7 years in opposition and also ensured Boris as PM delivered a harder Brexit in 2019 than Burnham would have negotiated as PM
If Burnham had been elected Labour leader in 2015 it's very unlikely Labour would have collapsed by 2017 and tempted May into her ill starred gamble.

It's not impossible the referendum would have gone the other way and Cameron would in 2018 have been succeeded by Osborne.
Maybe not but even had May waited until 2019 or even 2020 to call a general election Burnham could still have beaten her then and it would have been Burnham who got a Brexit deal through the Commons not Boris and we would therefore likely have had a softer Brexit. I doubt it would have changed the EU referendum result and Burnham would likely have beaten Osborne at the next general election even if it did.

Labour electing Corbyn over Burnham in 2015 was arguably the most consequential party leadership result this century, maybe even since WW2
If we're playing "what if"s, wasn't there a really bonkers bit of the post-referendum wars (2019?) where there was talk of the Commons reconfiguring under a different temporary PM to get a much less drastic Brexit on the books? I'm not just imagining that, am I?

From my memory (though it might be a fever dream, it was hard to tell in those days) one of the rocks that sank that idea was that a) Corbyn was clearly unacceptable to be that temporary PM and b) Corbyn was too vain to let anyone else do it.

Reinforcing the significance of Corbyn's election as Labour leader to the Brexit outcome

All Eyes Turn to Hungary – politicalbetting.com

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