President Trump says any country supplying weapons to Iran will be “immediately tariffed on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately.”
The only big tariffs he has managed to maintain for any duration are the ones on the island inhabited solely by penguins.
President Trump says any country supplying weapons to Iran will be “immediately tariffed on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately.”
Does that include the ones Trumpsky send to the Irani Kurds?
Perhaps to no one's great surprise, Washington and Tehran looked over the edge, into the abyss, and didn't much like what they saw.
Should we also note the role of China in all this? The Chinese were set to be big losers from a prolonged disruption of oil supplies or rather from having to buy oil intended for other countries at higher prices.
To save face, China gets its one of its allies to propose the ceasefire but at a point when enough people wanted and needed all this to stop.
And so, it seems, it has - for now and it will be interesting to see if oil prices return to what they were or whether the $90 a barrel world has arrived.
Everyone will claim victory and in a sense everybody has won something - well, not the dead Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese and others but everyone who matters -or at least has won enough to save face in the eyes of the world community and their electorates (delete as applicable).
The longer term implications are the tough ones - the Iranian regime, hated as it is, has endured, seemingly. The hawks have missed their victory but relations between America and the rest of the world and Israel and the rest of the world and perhaps between America and Israel will not be the same.
I suspect when the European media gets back into Iran and is shown the destruction wrought by Washington and Tel Aviv, this will accelerate the increasing estrangement of the Old World (parts of it) from the New (also parts of it).
The missing relationship from your list, is that between Iran and the GCC States which surround it.
These States were not part of any war, until Iran started randomly bombing them on 28th Feb, and are determined to prevent this situation recurring in future.
Until very recently, Qatar was an Iranian ally, and the source of significant funds that ended up funding various Iranian proxies around the region, much to the disdain of their fellow GCC members. The World Cup very nearly didn’t happen, and forced the Qaratis to compromise. Now Iran is very much the enemy of everyone else in the region. Now Qatar has to rebuild significant O&G facilities.
My suspicion is that, if Iran tries to toll the Straight, the GCC will use military force to avoid the tolls.
Iran didn't start "randomly bombing them". The US attacked Iran and Iran bombed countries with US bases (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan) or supporting the US. Iran didn't bomb Yemen!
But they didn’t target the US bases. They targeted energy and civilian infrastructure.
Target US bases. Fair enough. The US was the aggressor after all. Civilian infrastructure less so, but then the US and Israel does that too.
If you're talking international law, sure.
But what brought Trump to the ceasefire table was the targeting of the world economy via the Gulf states' energy infrastructure. "Fair" isn't a concept recognised by Iran's regime.
To be fair, why should they under the current circumstances?
This is the point about International Law being a fiction, but a useful one. If you choose to exercise arbitrary power because you can, it's silly to expect others not to respond in kind.
Pass me the sick bag ! More pathetic and desperate Trump arselicking for a capitulation that leaves the Iranian regime in place , the Strait of Hormuz will now have more Iranian control and the US reputation is now completely in the toilet.
We've finally got an answer to the question of whether most of the drop in Reform's support recently has been due to Rupert Lowe's party. The answer seems to be mostly yes according to the new YouGov poll which puts Ref on 24% and Restore on 4%.
Pass me the sick bag ! More pathetic and desperate Trump arselicking for a capitulation that leaves the Iranian regime in place , the Strait of Hormuz will now have more Iranian control and the US reputation is now completely in the toilet.
Elsewhere in the same newspaper today:
"If Iran is the first test in an epic, existential struggle between democracy and autocracy, then at this stage it looks as if autocracy is winning."
Starmer has immediately flown to the Middle East to emphasise his crucial role in the US-Iran ceasefire, which he didn’t broker, didn’t know was coming, didn’t participate in shaping and had absolutely no part in whatsoever
Fake news. The visit was planned beforehand.
I believe you. He likes flying to foreign countries to speak to foreign people about issues he can't control and isn't held responsible for. So much better than working.
I would assume there is going to be a bit of a scramble for shipping priority over the next two weeks? In that he can probably make a difference, at the margins, and probably should be trying to.
Oh, fair point. I was responding to bondegezou's point that the trip had been planned beforehand.
Plus I have to point out that that's the job of the Foreign Secretary, surely. Elsewise what is Yvette Cooper for exactly?
Politico has been reporting that the UK has been involved (possibly leading) discussions amongst other states on how to secure the strait post-conflict. 40-50 countries involved. Seems a bit like the chat about a Coallition of the Wiling for Ukraine (i.e. what do / can we do without USA). To be honest I may be being a soft @rse, but that kind of feels like the sort of thing the UK should be involved in, and fair play if Starmer and the administration can elbow themselves to the front of it. Even if all they are really doing is booking the meeting rooms and arranging the biscuits.
On the broader front does anyone feel it realistic that Trump drops Netanyahu and his Government over all this? If there’s one thing Trump doesn’t seem to like it is looking like a plonker, and he tends to blame anyone that he feels caused that (albeit never seems to blame himself). Is it plausible for this US administration to kick the Israeli Government to the kerb? Seems implausible.
Meanwhile the next big crisis continues to loom on the horizon. The (potential) super El Niño of 2026/7.
The Westerly wind burst continues, and strengthens, thanks to twin cyclones in the Western Pacific.
And Indonesia is already starting to make plans:
Food Reserves Enhanced to Face El Niño
The government is increasing national food reserves as a precautionary measure against the 2026 dry season, which is expected to be longer and drier due to the El Niño phenomenon.
Pass me the sick bag ! More pathetic and desperate Trump arselicking for a capitulation that leaves the Iranian regime in place , the Strait of Hormuz will now have more Iranian control and the US reputation is now completely in the toilet.
Elsewhere in the same newspaper today:
"If Iran is the first test in an epic, existential struggle between democracy and autocracy, then at this stage it looks as if autocracy is winning."
Meanwhile the next big crisis continues to loom on the horizon. The (potential) super El Niño of 2026/7.
The Westerly wind burst continues, and strengthens, thanks to twin cyclones in the Western Pacific.
And Indonesia is already starting to make plans:
Food Reserves Enhanced to Face El Niño
The government is increasing national food reserves as a precautionary measure against the 2026 dry season, which is expected to be longer and drier due to the El Niño phenomenon.
Pass me the sick bag ! More pathetic and desperate Trump arselicking for a capitulation that leaves the Iranian regime in place , the Strait of Hormuz will now have more Iranian control and the US reputation is now completely in the toilet.
Elsewhere in the same newspaper today:
"If Iran is the first test in an epic, existential struggle between democracy and autocracy, then at this stage it looks as if autocracy is winning."
How many of the pro-U.S. Arab States are autocracies?
The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been been agreed to. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Meanwhile the next big crisis continues to loom on the horizon. The (potential) super El Niño of 2026/7.
The Westerly wind burst continues, and strengthens, thanks to twin cyclones in the Western Pacific.
And Indonesia is already starting to make plans:
Food Reserves Enhanced to Face El Niño
The government is increasing national food reserves as a precautionary measure against the 2026 dry season, which is expected to be longer and drier due to the El Niño phenomenon.
The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been been agreed to. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
If Iran have any sense they will realise that this war has shown they don't actually need a nuclear weapon, their ability to cut off the world economy does the same job and makes the cost of invasion too high for anyone to bother trying.
The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been been agreed to. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been been agreed to. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Chuntering away.
The chuntering will calm down til Sunday, all about the green jacket this weekend.
The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been been agreed to. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Chuntering away.
The chuntering will calm down til Sunday, all about the green jacket this weekend.
Trump wants to watch it uninterrupted by his war, hence a dubious ceasefire
The more you look at the world, the more often you realize how much healthier Ukrainian society has become when it comes to coexistence between nationalities and faiths.
We weren’t always like this. We are becoming this now — as the country is being radically transformed by revolution and by the defense against imperial Russia.
We are shedding the weight of so many remnants of the past — really fast.
Thank you, that's inspiring. Nothing like a common enemy for drawing people together.
It’s remarkably similar to what’s been seen in the UAE in recent weeks.
Also the Artemis moon flyby, which briefly united the world (apart from one Guardian hack) in seeing what humanity can do.
Yes, I remember when the Apollo mission was in trouble (was it 13) it was as if the whole world was praying or wishing them a safe return.
I remember watching the first moon landing in glorious, fuzzy black and white.
I haven't really understood what is so extra specially daring about going round the far side of the moon. Is it any more dangerous just because they're out of contact, or more scary than an unplanned loss of contact, I wonder?
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
Iran is the enemy of the GCC, and has been for nearly half a century now.
Israel, despite the last couple of years, is now a friend with significant power.
GCC military spending has been pretty high, but the current conflict has drawn them towards countries like Ukraine who understand that you can’t sustainably launch $3m Patriot missiles against $50k drones except as a last resort over O&G facilities.
The most significant shift is likely going to be a distaste of Russia in the GCC, countries that have been pretty much neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict up until now, benefitting from Russian money fleeing Putin.
Bibi has said after the conflict is over people will be surprised at the new alliances forged and that Israel and the GCC were moving closer
I’d well believe it.
The NYT is reporting that hardline Israeli ministers and the like are furious at Netanyahu for accepting a ceasefire without achieving Israel’s objective of “destroying Iran’s theocratic government”
Given that the only way Israel could achieve that is by persuading America to nuke Iran, endangering the world, I am now at the stage of Fuck Israel. Fuck em
Not least because I am likewise persuaded that Israel dragged a foolish Trump into this war in the first place, as was reported and explained very persuasively last night
It is time for America to divorce Israel
If Trump had deployed ground troops he could have removed the regime without nukes but he couldn't be bothered to see through what he started as usual
I don’t think that’s true. A ground invasion would have to be enormous to seize and hold Iran. 100,000s of troops. With grotesque casualties
Even then, not certain to win
Leon: [repeatedly thumping the table] "I HAVE BEEN CHEATED OUT OF MY NUCLEAR WAR!"
Will Starmer be waving a piece of paper saying Peace in our Time?
Chamberlain significantly boosted defence spending while working for peace – everything from Spitfires to gas masks. Starmer talked about it once.
He only did so because Churchill forced him.to See Winston Churchill the Wilderness years.. and whatever he did wasn't nearly enough.
To be fair, the issue was the pivot to producing weapons from producing the capacity to make them.
After WWI, the armaments producing industrial system was massively reduced.
Rearmament started before Hitler came to power, when the pocket battleships were laid down.
By 1936 or so, the Treasury was struggling to find armaments capability to spend money on. They were spending on the factories to build stuff for the factories to make armaments.
Because the 1930s was a period of radical change in aircraft, ships and tanks (to name but a few), timing the pivot from factories to factories making weapons was critical.
The Germans started early building up a big airforce from 1933 onwards. So when war came they had lots of slightly out of date designs.
The U.K. planned to the pivot in 1941 - this was when the Germans would have been approaching being properly ready for war.
But Hitler went early. So the U.K. had, for example a bomber force built around lighter types. The 1941 plan was for 2,000 of the Standard Bombers - vast machines (much bigger than Lancasters) which would cruise at 300 mph and uniform defensive armament of 20mm cannon.
Starmer has immediately flown to the Middle East to emphasise his crucial role in the US-Iran ceasefire, which he didn’t broker, didn’t know was coming, didn’t participate in shaping and had absolutely no part in whatsoever
Fake news. The visit was planned beforehand.
I believe you. He likes flying to foreign countries to speak to foreign people about issues he can't control and isn't held responsible for. So much better than working.
I would assume there is going to be a bit of a scramble for shipping priority over the next two weeks? In that he can probably make a difference, at the margins, and probably should be trying to.
How keen are vessel owners going to be to send them through Hormuz to collect cargos right now? Obviously, everything trapped inside will be heading out laden ASAP, but if I was a ship owner, I'd be quite worried about the risk that the ceasefire collapses whilst my ship is inside, and my ship gets stuck in limbo for months or years as a result.
This morning, I asked President Trump if he’s okay with the Iranians charging a toll for all ships that go through the Strait of Hormuz, he told me there may be a Joint US-Iran venture to charge tolls:
“We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people.”
We've finally got an answer to the question of whether most of the drop in Reform's support recently has been due to Rupert Lowe's party. The answer seems to be mostly yes according to the new YouGov poll which puts Ref on 24% and Restore on 4%.
1) Will Lowe actually manage to get a significant number of candidates nominated to stand. 2) Where there is no Restore candidate, will most of their voters go 'back' to Reform 3) Will Restore voters, where they have a candidate, be willing to vote tactically for Reform instead to get them over the line?
I suspect that the answers to these are 1) No 2) Yes 3)No. If I'm right, they'll do rather less damage to Reform than many people are hoping.
This morning, I asked President Trump if he’s okay with the Iranians charging a toll for all ships that go through the Strait of Hormuz, he told me there may be a Joint US-Iran venture to charge tolls:
“We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people.”
“It’s a beautiful thing”
Puts this in an interesting light;
FT scoop - Iran will demand that shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency for laden oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. One official says it could be equivalent to $1 per barrel of oil.
The more you look at the world, the more often you realize how much healthier Ukrainian society has become when it comes to coexistence between nationalities and faiths.
We weren’t always like this. We are becoming this now — as the country is being radically transformed by revolution and by the defense against imperial Russia.
We are shedding the weight of so many remnants of the past — really fast.
Thank you, that's inspiring. Nothing like a common enemy for drawing people together.
It’s remarkably similar to what’s been seen in the UAE in recent weeks.
Also the Artemis moon flyby, which briefly united the world (apart from one Guardian hack) in seeing what humanity can do.
Yes, I remember when the Apollo mission was in trouble (was it 13) it was as if the whole world was praying or wishing them a safe return.
I remember watching the first moon landing in glorious, fuzzy black and white.
I haven't really understood what is so extra specially daring about going round the far side of the moon. Is it any more dangerous just because they're out of contact, or more scary than an unplanned loss of contact, I wonder?
President Trump says any country supplying weapons to Iran will be “immediately tariffed on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately.”
The only big tariffs he has managed to maintain for any duration are the ones on the island inhabited solely by penguins.
The WSJ have published the Iranian 10 point plan .
What a capitulation by Trump.
For the benefit of us all, I would much rather all pundits and politicians report this as a magnificent victory for Trump. The future will be safer if he thinks he's won bigly, rather than if he's persuaded that he's capitulated.
The WSJ have published the Iranian 10 point plan .
What a capitulation by Trump.
For the benefit of us all, I would much rather all pundits and politicians report this as a magnificent victory for Trump. The future will be safer if he thinks he's won bigly, rather than if he's persuaded that he's capitulated.
I just discovered that my town was the butt of a medieval joke
Walter Map was a Welsh writer and a courtier of Henry II. He wrote about it in his book De nugis curialium (Medieval Latin for "Of the trifles of courtiers")
"There was in service upon the aforesaid king a clerk who hath written these things down for us, whose name is Map. He was dear to the king and found favour in his eyes, not through any merit of his own, but through that of his parents, who had been the king’s loyal supporters both before he had become king and after.
The king had also a son, Geoffrey by name, born, if I may say so, from a bawd whose name was Hikenai, as I have remarked above in passing, and this Geoffrey the king, contrary to the belief and the will of all, adopted as his own. Between him and Map there sometimes arose ready quarrels in the presence of the king himself and also elsewhere.
Through the king Geoffrey was elected to the see of Lincoln, and held that bishopric longer than was lawful, although the Pope often urged that he give it up or be ordained a bishop ; he hesitated a long time, saying yea and saying nay to neither and to both.
The king, therefore, who noted with some worry that much land was covered by such a fig tree, forced him to do one thing or the other ; he chose to resign.
He resigned at Marlborough, where is a spring of which, if one tasteth, they say, he talketh barbarous French ; hence, if one is faulty in his use of this tongue, we say that he speaketh French of Marlborough.
Therefore, during his speech of resignation, which Map heard him make before the lord Richard of Canterbury, when the Archbishop had asked him, ‘ What sayest'thou ? ’ wishing him to repeat his words for all to hear, and when, since Geoffrey made no reply, the Archbishop had asked him a second time, ‘ What Sayest thou ? ’
Map answered in his stead, ‘ French of Marlborough.’
The others laughed at this, Geoffrey withdrew in anger. "
I just listened to Lewis Goodall on LBC tear this idiot to shreds over this nonsense article. The day before Wallis Simons wrote a completely contrary piece, essentially explaining that Trump had lost.
On reading that piece it did cross my mind has anyone seen @williamglenn and Jake Wallis Simons in the same room?
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
Iran is the enemy of the GCC, and has been for nearly half a century now.
Israel, despite the last couple of years, is now a friend with significant power.
GCC military spending has been pretty high, but the current conflict has drawn them towards countries like Ukraine who understand that you can’t sustainably launch $3m Patriot missiles against $50k drones except as a last resort over O&G facilities.
The most significant shift is likely going to be a distaste of Russia in the GCC, countries that have been pretty much neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict up until now, benefitting from Russian money fleeing Putin.
Bibi has said after the conflict is over people will be surprised at the new alliances forged and that Israel and the GCC were moving closer
I’d well believe it.
The NYT is reporting that hardline Israeli ministers and the like are furious at Netanyahu for accepting a ceasefire without achieving Israel’s objective of “destroying Iran’s theocratic government”
Given that the only way Israel could achieve that is by persuading America to nuke Iran, endangering the world, I am now at the stage of Fuck Israel. Fuck em
Not least because I am likewise persuaded that Israel dragged a foolish Trump into this war in the first place, as was reported and explained very persuasively last night
It is time for America to divorce Israel
If Trump had deployed ground troops he could have removed the regime without nukes but he couldn't be bothered to see through what he started as usual
I don’t think that’s true. A ground invasion would have to be enormous to seize and hold Iran. 100,000s of troops. With grotesque casualties
Even then, not certain to win
Leon: [repeatedly thumping the table] "I HAVE BEEN CHEATED OUT OF MY NUCLEAR WAR!"
I just listened to Lewis Goodall on LBC tear this idiot to shreds over this nonsense article. The day before Wallis Simons wrote a completely contrary piece, essentially explaining that Trump had lost.
On reading that piece it did cross my mind has anyone seen @williamglenn and Jake Wallis Simons in the same room?
While clearly nonsense, I think we'd all be significantly safer if we play along with their "massive overwhelming victory" claims and offer our congratulations KCIII could be dispatched with the highest UK honour, a "Jim'll fix it " badge, bespoke double-sided design, "JIM" on one side "JEFF" on the other.
There has been a massive spike in online attacks against website and infrastructure in the last couple of weeks.
Seems to be a lot of Russian related semi-state groups.
Every thing and everything - the endpoints for the DEFRA water level monitoring were attacked.
Lots of DDOS attacks - that’s where an army of bots are used to send a zillion messages to a website to kill it. They build the army of bots my hacking peoples computers, old routers - anything Internet connected, really. Cheap home automation gadgets are a real problem.
So don’t be surprised if you find anti-robot verification on websites getting very paranoid. People are turning the settings to max.
The WSJ have published the Iranian 10 point plan .
What a capitulation by Trump.
For the benefit of us all, I would much rather all pundits and politicians report this as a magnificent victory for Trump. The future will be safer if he thinks he's won bigly, rather than if he's persuaded that he's capitulated.
Yes. And the final logical step to this way of thinking - set him up in his own AI-generated immersive 'US president experience' where he can happily play without impacting on the analogue flesh and blood world. The technology is good enough now and he's easily gullible enough to think it's all real if nobody tells him otherwise.
Many Contributors on here are so rabidly anti Trump its impossible to see the real truth. The best thing to do is let the dust settle and then see what's what. The rabid will remain but can be discounted.
Many Contributors on here are so rabidly anti Trump its impossible to see the real truth. The best thing to do is let the dust settle and then see what's what. The rabid will remain but can be discounted.
You don't need to be anti-Trump to ask, what was the point?
Many Contributors on here are so rabidly anti Trump its impossible to see the real truth. The best thing to do is let the dust settle and then see what's what. The rabid will remain but can be discounted.
Apologies for being quite upset that a bunch of innocent people are dead, and that world energy supply has taken a nasty hit (with significant long-term consequences) and all for... for... for...
For what, exactly?
The Mullahs are still in control. Hopefully they will be less inclined to meddle in the affairs of others, but I suspect that is wishful thinking. And all while Israel continues to make lives pretty shit for both Palestinians and the inhabitants of Lebanon.
There has been a massive spike in online attacks against website and infrastructure in the last couple of weeks.
Seems to be a lot of Russian related semi-state groups.
Every thing and everything - the endpoints for the DEFRA water level monitoring were attacked.
Lots of DDOS attacks - that’s where an army of bots are used to send a zillion messages to a website to kill it. They build the army of bots my hacking peoples computers, old routers - anything Internet connected, really. Cheap home automation gadgets are a real problem.
So don’t be surprised if you find anti-robot verification on websites getting very paranoid. People are turning the settings to max.
Seriously misleading if the SGP are only standing in six constituencies.
This is from Ipsos:
The SNP lead constituency voting intentions on 39%, up 3 points from March. John Swinney’s approval rating has improved (+4 swing since March).
Labour are down 5 points to 15%, neck and neck with Reform UK (also on 15%).
Reform UK Scotland leader Malcolm Offord’s ratings have worsened (-4.5 swing since March).
Energy policy is among the top 5 issues for the Scottish public for the first time.
Our headline estimate of Holyrood constituency voting intention is:
SNP: 39% (+3 points compared with Ipsos’ previous poll taken 19th – 25th March) Labour: 15% (-5) Reform UK: 15% (-1) Liberal Democrats: 10% (no change) Conservatives: 11% (+2) Scottish Green Party: 7% (no change) Other: 3% (+1) Our headline estimate of Holyrood regional list voting intention is:
SNP: 29% (+3 points) Scottish Green Party: 16% (no change) Reform UK: 16% (+2) Labour: 15% (-4) Conservatives: 13% (+2) Liberal Democrats: 9% (-1) Other: 3% (no change)
The SNP have extended their lead over Labour and Reform UK according to the latest Ipsos Scottish Political Monitor, taken in the first week of the Holyrood election campaigns (26-31 March) and conducted in partnership with STV News.
The poll puts the SNP on 39% of the constituency vote, with a 24-point lead over Labour and Reform UK (both on 15%). if replicated on polling day, this would nonetheless be a weaker performance than at the last Holyrood election in 2021, when the party won 48% of the constituency vote.
While the SNP’s vote share on both constituency and regional list votes is up 3 points compared with Ipsos’ previous poll in March, Scottish Labour’s vote share has weakened by 5 points on the constituency vote and by 4 points on the regional list vote.
Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos in Scotland, commented:
This morning, I asked President Trump if he’s okay with the Iranians charging a toll for all ships that go through the Strait of Hormuz, he told me there may be a Joint US-Iran venture to charge tolls:
“We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people.”
There has been a massive spike in online attacks against website and infrastructure in the last couple of weeks.
Seems to be a lot of Russian related semi-state groups.
Every thing and everything - the endpoints for the DEFRA water level monitoring were attacked.
Lots of DDOS attacks - that’s where an army of bots are used to send a zillion messages to a website to kill it. They build the army of bots my hacking peoples computers, old routers - anything Internet connected, really. Cheap home automation gadgets are a real problem.
So don’t be surprised if you find anti-robot verification on websites getting very paranoid. People are turning the settings to max.
There has been a massive spike in online attacks against website and infrastructure in the last couple of weeks.
Seems to be a lot of Russian related semi-state groups.
Every thing and everything - the endpoints for the DEFRA water level monitoring were attacked.
Lots of DDOS attacks - that’s where an army of bots are used to send a zillion messages to a website to kill it. They build the army of bots my hacking peoples computers, old routers - anything Internet connected, really. Cheap home automation gadgets are a real problem.
So don’t be surprised if you find anti-robot verification on websites getting very paranoid. People are turning the settings to max.
Still a 1% swing from SNP to Labour and a 5.5% swing from SNP to LD on the constituency vote on that poll and a 13% swing from SNP to Reform on the list vote since 2021
The more you look at the world, the more often you realize how much healthier Ukrainian society has become when it comes to coexistence between nationalities and faiths.
We weren’t always like this. We are becoming this now — as the country is being radically transformed by revolution and by the defense against imperial Russia.
We are shedding the weight of so many remnants of the past — really fast.
Thank you, that's inspiring. Nothing like a common enemy for drawing people together.
It’s remarkably similar to what’s been seen in the UAE in recent weeks.
Also the Artemis moon flyby, which briefly united the world (apart from one Guardian hack) in seeing what humanity can do.
Yes, I remember when the Apollo mission was in trouble (was it 13) it was as if the whole world was praying or wishing them a safe return.
I remember watching the first moon landing in glorious, fuzzy black and white.
I haven't really understood what is so extra specially daring about going round the far side of the moon. Is it any more dangerous just because they're out of contact, or more scary than an unplanned loss of contact, I wonder?
I think the importance is that moon orbit and return is an essential step towards a further landing or moonbase.
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
Iran is the enemy of the GCC, and has been for nearly half a century now.
Israel, despite the last couple of years, is now a friend with significant power.
GCC military spending has been pretty high, but the current conflict has drawn them towards countries like Ukraine who understand that you can’t sustainably launch $3m Patriot missiles against $50k drones except as a last resort over O&G facilities.
The most significant shift is likely going to be a distaste of Russia in the GCC, countries that have been pretty much neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict up until now, benefitting from Russian money fleeing Putin.
Thanks for the insight.
The GCC countries do have the cash to splash, as it were, to defend the oil and gas infrastructure.
I’d be interested on your thoughts as to how the GCC view China going forward - for now, a significant customer but also seeking to move away from oil dependency.
I do think China has engineered this ceasefire as an act of desperation as they could see the impacts of a prolonged interruption of supply hurting them hard and fast.
China is the big unknown in all of this.
Most of the Gulf exports head East, and the GCC has been trying to thread the needle of neutrality between China and the West with BRICS for several years now, including stuff like oil deals priced in Yuan.
But there’s also suggestions that China has months of supply in storage, more than the West, so I honestly don’t know what to think right now.
A ceasefire with the Straight opened, however, makes a massive difference. As a random example, I can see from my place in Dubai at least three cruise ships which have been stuck in Port Rashid since 28th Feb. getting them out is a priority for the lines who must be losing millions per day they’re not at sea.
Likely to have business interruption insurance though
Only the brain dead could think this is a victory for Trump .
So that means the MAGA morons will be lapping it up .
There's nothing you would regard as a victory for Trump anyway.
Andy will you please take your head out of Trump’s arsehole for five minutes?
FFS stop with the ad hominems It's boring, you don't need to pull people down to big yourself up. The site should be able to cope with dissent without these silly pile-ons. So playground.
Bush Jr and Trump aren't particularly intelligent or articulate but both are sharp, Bush Jr had a higher SAT score than Kerry though not Gore. Trump I would say has a slightly higher IQ than Biden did, though Hillary Clinton and probably Harris have a higher IQ than Trump
"Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had"
--- William T. Kelley (Penn Wharton)
You don't get to be a billionaire and President of the USA by being completely dumb
I've said it before and I'll repeat it, I do not know anyone personally who appears to be as stupid as Donald Trump. I honestly can't think of anyone I know who plumbs the same depths of ignorance, illogic, and incuriosity.
Beyond the arrogance, perversion, racism, greed, corruption, callousness, and many other flaws he has the reality that Donald Trump is incredibly stupid is the thing that gives me the most trouble.
How can the most powerful person in the world be one of the dumbest?
Still a 1% swing from SNP to Labour and a 5.5% swing from SNP to LD on the constituency vote on that poll and a 13% swing from SNP to Reform on the list vote since 2021
SNP are on the cusp of a majority government as much as you try to downplay it
Bush Jr and Trump aren't particularly intelligent or articulate but both are sharp, Bush Jr had a higher SAT score than Kerry though not Gore. Trump I would say has a slightly higher IQ than Biden did, though Hillary Clinton and probably Harris have a higher IQ than Trump
"Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had"
--- William T. Kelley (Penn Wharton)
You don't get to be a billionaire and President of the USA by being completely dumb
I've said it before and I'll repeat it, I do not know anyone personally who appears to be as stupid as Donald Trump. I honestly can't think of anyone I know who plumbs the same depths of ignorance, illogic, and incuriosity.
Beyond the arrogance, perversion, racism, greed, corruption, callousness, and many other flaws he has the reality that Donald Trump is incredibly stupid is the thing that gives me the most trouble.
How can the most powerful person in the world be one of the dumbest?
He is crude, rude, aggressive and greedy but that doesn't mean he is stupid, he is persuaded nearly 50% of US voters to vote for him 3 times
Still a 1% swing from SNP to Labour and a 5.5% swing from SNP to LD on the constituency vote on that poll and a 13% swing from SNP to Reform on the list vote since 2021
SNP are on the cusp of a majority government as much as you try to downplay it
They aren't, on that poll they will likely lose 1 constituency seat to the LDs at least and another SNP held seat will be neck and neck with Labour and they might also lose Ayr and Banffshire and Buchan coast to Reform.
The SNP will also lose a seat or two to Reform on the list vote
Bush Jr and Trump aren't particularly intelligent or articulate but both are sharp, Bush Jr had a higher SAT score than Kerry though not Gore. Trump I would say has a slightly higher IQ than Biden did, though Hillary Clinton and probably Harris have a higher IQ than Trump
"Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had"
--- William T. Kelley (Penn Wharton)
You don't get to be a billionaire and President of the USA by being completely dumb
I've said it before and I'll repeat it, I do not know anyone personally who appears to be as stupid as Donald Trump. I honestly can't think of anyone I know who plumbs the same depths of ignorance, illogic, and incuriosity.
Beyond the arrogance, perversion, racism, greed, corruption, callousness, and many other flaws he has the reality that Donald Trump is incredibly stupid is the thing that gives me the most trouble.
How can the most powerful person in the world be one of the dumbest?
He is crude, rude, aggressive and greedy but that doesn't mean he is stupid, he is persuaded nearly 50% of US voters to vote for him 3 times
Being successful at being made leader doesn’t make you bright.
Peron was an idiot who fucked Argentina and is still worshipped by a chunk of people
Francisco Solano López declared war on most of South America. From Paraguay. His country fought to the death for him. 70% of the population may have died. Paraguay lost 40% of its lands. The only reason Paraguay exists is that the victors realised that dividing up what was left would probably cause a war between themselves. He is a national hero, today.
Many Contributors on here are so rabidly anti Trump its impossible to see the real truth. The best thing to do is let the dust settle and then see what's what. The rabid will remain but can be discounted.
Apologies for being quite upset that a bunch of innocent people are dead, and that world energy supply has taken a nasty hit (with significant long-term consequences) and all for... for... for...
For what, exactly?
The Mullahs are still in control. Hopefully they will be less inclined to meddle in the affairs of others, but I suspect that is wishful thinking. And all while Israel continues to make lives pretty shit for both Palestinians and the inhabitants of Lebanon.
Any Mullah that doesn't want Iran to get nukes yesterday is brain dead
Many Contributors on here are so rabidly anti Trump its impossible to see the real truth. The best thing to do is let the dust settle and then see what's what. The rabid will remain but can be discounted.
Apologies for being quite upset that a bunch of innocent people are dead, and that world energy supply has taken a nasty hit (with significant long-term consequences) and all for... for... for...
For what, exactly?
The Mullahs are still in control. Hopefully they will be less inclined to meddle in the affairs of others, but I suspect that is wishful thinking. And all while Israel continues to make lives pretty shit for both Palestinians and the inhabitants of Lebanon.
Any Mullah that doesn't want Iran to get nukes yesterday is brain dead
After unprovoked attacks by the US and Israel when in peace negotiations with them they’re stupid if they don’t
Comments
https://x.com/i/status/2041835041429303466
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/7804ca951d823406
This is the point about International Law being a fiction, but a useful one. If you choose to exercise arbitrary power because you can, it's silly to expect others not to respond in kind.
https://x.com/Stefan_Boscia/status/2041757210171048042
"If Iran is the first test in an epic, existential struggle between democracy and autocracy, then at this stage it looks as if autocracy is winning."
On the broader front does anyone feel it realistic that Trump drops Netanyahu and his Government over all this? If there’s one thing Trump doesn’t seem to like it is looking like a plonker, and he tends to blame anyone that he feels caused that (albeit never seems to blame himself). Is it plausible for this US administration to kick the Israeli Government to the kerb? Seems implausible.
The Westerly wind burst continues, and strengthens, thanks to twin cyclones in the Western Pacific.
And Indonesia is already starting to make plans:
Food Reserves Enhanced to Face El Niño
The government is increasing national food reserves as a precautionary measure against the 2026 dry season, which is expected to be longer and drier due to the El Niño phenomenon.
Infographic Page #Infografik: antaranews.com/infografik/551…
https://x.com/antaranews/status/2041848551517647125?s=46
See Winston Churchill the Wilderness years.. and whatever he did wasn't nearly enough.
https://x.com/TrumpTruthOnX/status/2041840925501223113
The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been been agreed to. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
But 14 on Friday!
Claiming on Sky 'historic battlefield victory'
And he claims to be a Christian - blasphemous heathen more like
Which moves us to a position that isn't as good as Feb 28th but hey that's a technicality if you only compare today with yesterday..
Starmer traded Wales plus £50Bn to Mauritius for a ceasefire that didn’t work.
After WWI, the armaments producing industrial system was massively reduced.
Rearmament started before Hitler came to power, when the pocket battleships were laid down.
By 1936 or so, the Treasury was struggling to find armaments capability to spend money on. They were spending on the factories to build stuff for the factories to make armaments.
Because the 1930s was a period of radical change in aircraft, ships and tanks (to name but a few), timing the pivot from factories to factories making weapons was critical.
The Germans started early building up a big airforce from 1933 onwards. So when war came they had lots of slightly out of date designs.
The U.K. planned to the pivot in 1941 - this was when the Germans would have been approaching being properly ready for war.
But Hitler went early. So the U.K. had, for example a bomber force built around lighter types. The 1941 plan was for 2,000 of the Standard Bombers - vast machines (much bigger than Lancasters) which would cruise at 300 mph and uniform defensive armament of 20mm cannon.
Obviously, everything trapped inside will be heading out laden ASAP, but if I was a ship owner, I'd be quite worried about the risk that the ceasefire collapses whilst my ship is inside, and my ship gets stuck in limbo for months or years as a result.
Saudi Arabia’s vital east-west oil pipeline that bypassed Hormuz was hit by a drone attack this afternoon.
A pumping station was struck around 1 PM local.
#notawarcrime !
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/2041849113067536897?s=61
‘We got mugged off by Bibi, fucked up, got out and claimed a win’
This morning, I asked President Trump if he’s okay with the Iranians charging a toll for all ships that go through the Strait of Hormuz, he told me there may be a Joint US-Iran venture to charge tolls:
“We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people.”
“It’s a beautiful thing”
1) Will Lowe actually manage to get a significant number of candidates nominated to stand.
2) Where there is no Restore candidate, will most of their voters go 'back' to Reform
3) Will Restore voters, where they have a candidate, be willing to vote tactically for Reform instead to get them over the line?
I suspect that the answers to these are 1) No 2) Yes 3)No. If I'm right, they'll do rather less damage to Reform than many people are hoping.
FT scoop - Iran will demand that shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency for laden oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. One official says it could be equivalent to $1 per barrel of oil.
https://bsky.app/profile/tonytassell.bsky.social/post/3miy7qa62es2q
What a capitulation by Trump.
https://www.itv.com/news/2026-04-07/trump-agrees-to-two-week-ceasefire-with-iran-if-strait-of-hormuz-is-reopened
Walter Map was a Welsh writer and a courtier of Henry II. He wrote about it in his book De nugis curialium (Medieval Latin for "Of the trifles of courtiers")
"There was in service upon the aforesaid king a clerk who hath written these things down for us, whose name is Map. He was dear to the king and found favour in his eyes, not through any merit of his own, but through that of his parents, who had been the king’s loyal supporters both before he had become king and after.
The king had also a son, Geoffrey by name, born, if I may say so, from a bawd whose name was Hikenai, as I have remarked above in passing, and this Geoffrey the king, contrary to the belief and the will of all, adopted as his own. Between him and Map there sometimes arose ready quarrels in the presence of the king himself and also elsewhere.
Through the king Geoffrey was elected to the see of Lincoln, and held that bishopric longer than was lawful, although the Pope often urged that he give it up or be ordained a bishop ; he hesitated a long time, saying yea and saying nay to neither and to both.
The king, therefore, who noted with some worry that much land was covered by such a fig tree, forced him to do one thing or the other ; he chose to resign.
He resigned at Marlborough, where is a spring of which, if one tasteth, they say, he talketh barbarous French ; hence, if one is faulty in his use of this tongue, we say that he speaketh French of Marlborough.
Therefore, during his speech of resignation, which Map heard him make before the lord Richard of Canterbury, when the Archbishop had asked him, ‘ What sayest'thou ? ’ wishing him to repeat his words for all to hear, and when, since Geoffrey made no reply, the Archbishop had asked him a second time, ‘ What Sayest thou ? ’
Map answered in his stead, ‘ French of Marlborough.’
The others laughed at this, Geoffrey withdrew in anger. "
https://archive.org/stream/in.ernet.dli.2015.184466/2015.184466.De-Nugis-Curialium_djvu.txt
Astronauts greet Mr Trump with the sound of silence:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmmuJ64bnBE
I only mention this because I can't help reading Hesketh as Emile Heskey, and wondering wtf he's doing involved in this.
On reading that piece it did cross my mind has anyone seen @williamglenn and Jake Wallis Simons in the same room?
(H/T @Stuartinromford )
All confusion swept away in a stroke.
So that means the MAGA morons will be lapping it up .
KCIII could be dispatched with the highest UK honour, a "Jim'll fix it " badge, bespoke double-sided design, "JIM" on one side "JEFF" on the other.
Let’s throw the question back at you - what do you think victory for Trump would look like?
The metric for success is a very simple one based on Trump's own objective.
The judgment of anyone on Pb who supported the war at the start (who have now gone quiet) is terrible.
There has been a massive spike in online attacks against website and infrastructure in the last couple of weeks.
Seems to be a lot of Russian related semi-state groups.
Every thing and everything - the endpoints for the DEFRA water level monitoring were attacked.
Lots of DDOS attacks - that’s where an army of bots are used to send a zillion messages to a website to kill it. They build the army of bots my hacking peoples computers, old routers - anything Internet connected, really. Cheap home automation gadgets are a real problem.
So don’t be surprised if you find anti-robot verification on websites getting very paranoid. People are turning the settings to max.
The best thing to do is let the dust settle and then see what's what. The rabid will remain but can be discounted.
I am aware of the Vanilla / CloudFlare issues and am investigating. My apologies for any issues.
For what, exactly?
The Mullahs are still in control. Hopefully they will be less inclined to meddle in the affairs of others, but I suspect that is wishful thinking. And all while Israel continues to make lives pretty shit for both Palestinians and the inhabitants of Lebanon.
Thanks @Malmesbury
The SNP lead constituency voting intentions on 39%, up 3 points from March. John Swinney’s approval rating has improved (+4 swing since March).
Labour are down 5 points to 15%, neck and neck with Reform UK (also on 15%).
Reform UK Scotland leader Malcolm Offord’s ratings have worsened (-4.5 swing since March).
Energy policy is among the top 5 issues for the Scottish public for the first time.
Our headline estimate of Holyrood constituency voting intention is:
SNP: 39% (+3 points compared with Ipsos’ previous poll taken 19th – 25th March)
Labour: 15% (-5)
Reform UK: 15% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 10% (no change)
Conservatives: 11% (+2)
Scottish Green Party: 7% (no change)
Other: 3% (+1)
Our headline estimate of Holyrood regional list voting intention is:
SNP: 29% (+3 points)
Scottish Green Party: 16% (no change)
Reform UK: 16% (+2)
Labour: 15% (-4)
Conservatives: 13% (+2)
Liberal Democrats: 9% (-1)
Other: 3% (no change)
The SNP have extended their lead over Labour and Reform UK according to the latest Ipsos Scottish Political Monitor, taken in the first week of the Holyrood election campaigns (26-31 March) and conducted in partnership with STV News.
The poll puts the SNP on 39% of the constituency vote, with a 24-point lead over Labour and Reform UK (both on 15%). if replicated on polling day, this would nonetheless be a weaker performance than at the last Holyrood election in 2021, when the party won 48% of the constituency vote.
While the SNP’s vote share on both constituency and regional list votes is up 3 points compared with Ipsos’ previous poll in March, Scottish Labour’s vote share has weakened by 5 points on the constituency vote and by 4 points on the regional list vote.
Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos in Scotland, commented:
This is not a good sign.
This is not a good sign.
It's boring, you don't need to pull people down to big yourself up. The site should be able to cope with dissent without these silly pile-ons. So playground.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/04/08/ben-delo-autism-lying-politicians-reform-farage-donations/
@Andy_JS is as entitled to his views as any of us and it is important there is a wide range of views on this forum
I do not agree with him on Trump who is an unmitigating disaster, but some will and have the right to express their view
Beyond the arrogance, perversion, racism, greed, corruption, callousness, and many other flaws he has the reality that Donald Trump is incredibly stupid is the thing that gives me the most trouble.
How can the most powerful person in the world be one of the dumbest?
The SNP will also lose a seat or two to Reform on the list vote
Peron was an idiot who fucked Argentina and is still worshipped by a chunk of people
Francisco Solano López declared war on most of South America. From Paraguay. His country fought to the death for him. 70% of the population may have died. Paraguay lost 40% of its lands. The only reason Paraguay exists is that the victors realised that dividing up what was left would probably cause a war between themselves. He is a national hero, today.