I woke up this morning and yawned contentedly and then thought “oh shit” and I rolled over to my phone to see if Trump had, in fact, dropped a nuke on Iran, while I was sleeping
I’d rather not go through that moment again
This needs to be the last such post from this ludicrous individual.
Edit: Donald Trump, I mean.
I’d have left it without the clarification. Let the reader decide…
That would have been easy, given Leon is about eight individuals.
Bush Jr and Trump aren't particularly intelligent or articulate but both are sharp, Bush Jr had a higher SAT score than Kerry though not Gore. Trump I would say has a slightly higher IQ than Biden did, though Hillary Clinton and probably Harris have a higher IQ than Trump
"Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had"
--- William T. Kelley (Penn Wharton)
You don't get to be a billionaire and President of the USA by being completely dumb
PB posters seem to treat intelligence as a holistic thing you either have or don't have. Evidently that is not the case, one of the most intelligent footballers ever was Gazza, incredible spatial awareness and vision, but he was as daft as a brush even before his alcohol problems.
Trump has an uncanny understanding of what people want to hear, how they react to messaging and how to manipulate, combined with a complete lack of interest in any knowledge beyond the superficial. He is exceptionally strong in some small pockets of intelligence, but exceptionally weak in most, just like Gazza.
Perfect skillset to gain power, especially in Presidential elections. Pretty disastrous skillset for someone exercising power.
Not the only example of that in history.
The big issue now is he seems to have lost any sense of object permanence. He can't equate outcomes today with his own actions yesterday.
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
Iran is the enemy of the GCC, and has been for nearly half a century now.
Israel, despite the last couple of years, is now a friend with significant power.
GCC military spending has been pretty high, but the current conflict has drawn them towards countries like Ukraine who understand that you can’t sustainably launch $3m Patriot missiles against $50k drones except as a last resort over O&G facilities.
The most significant shift is likely going to be a distaste of Russia in the GCC, countries that have been pretty much neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict up until now, benefitting from Russian money fleeing Putin.
Purely on the numbers, GCC spend very roughly 4-5% of GDP on defence. Saudi Arabia spends roughly what the UK does - $80 billion, for a GDP 1/3 of the size.
Yup, and well aware since 1979 who was the enemy.
An old family friend was an RAF instructor, spent a lot of time in Saudi Arabia back in the Tornado days.
Bush Jr and Trump aren't particularly intelligent or articulate but both are sharp, Bush Jr had a higher SAT score than Kerry though not Gore. Trump I would say has a slightly higher IQ than Biden did, though Hillary Clinton and probably Harris have a higher IQ than Trump
"Donald Trump was the dumbest goddam student I ever had"
--- William T. Kelley (Penn Wharton)
You don't get to be a billionaire and President of the USA by being completely dumb
It's not about raw IQ. That might be above average, high even. The problem is that he's ignorant, shallow and immature. This leaves him badly out of his depth in the job of US president. Look at how the likes of Putin and Netanyahu run rings around him. Or his sub-ladybird grasp of finance and economics (other than the personal grift aspect of it).
Anthropic's (claims its) new model, Claude Mythos, is so powerful that it is not releasing it to the public.
Instead, it is starting a 40-company coalition, Project Glasswing, to allow cybersecurity defenders a head start in locking down critical software..
..I spoke to Anthropic execs about the new model, which they called a "reckoning" for cybersecurity. They claim it has already found vulnerabilities in every major operating system and web browser, including some that "literally decades of security researchers" didn't find...
..As always, the best stuff is in the system card.
During testing, Claude Mythos Preview broke out of a sandbox environment, built "a moderately sophisticated multi-step exploit" to gain internet access, and emailed a researcher while they were eating a sandwich in the park... https://x.com/kevinroose/status/2041577176915702169
“Our new product is about to break your business model, please pay us milions to avoid that happening…”
Computer scientists have been warning about using memory-unsafe languages since, what, the 60s?
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
Iran is the enemy of the GCC, and has been for nearly half a century now.
Israel, despite the last couple of years, is now a friend with significant power.
GCC military spending has been pretty high, but the current conflict has drawn them towards countries like Ukraine who understand that you can’t sustainably launch $3m Patriot missiles against $50k drones except as a last resort over O&G facilities.
The most significant shift is likely going to be a distaste of Russia in the GCC, countries that have been pretty much neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict up until now, benefitting from Russian money fleeing Putin.
Thanks for the insight.
The GCC countries do have the cash to splash, as it were, to defend the oil and gas infrastructure.
I’d be interested on your thoughts as to how the GCC view China going forward - for now, a significant customer but also seeking to move away from oil dependency.
I do think China has engineered this ceasefire as an act of desperation as they could see the impacts of a prolonged interruption of supply hurting them hard and fast.
China is the big unknown in all of this.
Most of the Gulf exports head East, and the GCC has been trying to thread the needle of neutrality between China and the West with BRICS for several years now, including stuff like oil deals priced in Yuan.
But there’s also suggestions that China has months of supply in storage, more than the West, so I honestly don’t know what to think right now.
A ceasefire with the Straight opened, however, makes a massive difference. As a random example, I can see from my place in Dubai at least three cruise ships which have been stuck in Port Rashid since 28th Feb. getting them out is a priority for the lines who must be losing millions per day they’re not at sea.
Perhaps to no one's great surprise, Washington and Tehran looked over the edge, into the abyss, and didn't much like what they saw.
Should we also note the role of China in all this? The Chinese were set to be big losers from a prolonged disruption of oil supplies or rather from having to buy oil intended for other countries at higher prices.
To save face, China gets its one of its allies to propose the ceasefire but at a point when enough people wanted and needed all this to stop.
And so, it seems, it has - for now and it will be interesting to see if oil prices return to what they were or whether the $90 a barrel world has arrived.
Everyone will claim victory and in a sense everybody has won something - well, not the dead Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese and others but everyone who matters -or at least has won enough to save face in the eyes of the world community and their electorates (delete as applicable).
The longer term implications are the tough ones - the Iranian regime, hated as it is, has endured, seemingly. The hawks have missed their victory but relations between America and the rest of the world and Israel and the rest of the world and perhaps between America and Israel will not be the same.
I suspect when the European media gets back into Iran and is shown the destruction wrought by Washington and Tel Aviv, this will accelerate the increasing estrangement of the Old World (parts of it) from the New (also parts of it).
The missing relationship from your list, is that between Iran and the GCC States which surround it.
These States were not part of any war, until Iran started randomly bombing them on 28th Feb, and are determined to prevent this situation recurring in future.
Until very recently, Qatar was an Iranian ally, and the source of significant funds that ended up funding various Iranian proxies around the region, much to the disdain of their fellow GCC members. The World Cup very nearly didn’t happen, and forced the Qaratis to compromise. Now Iran is very much the enemy of everyone else in the region. Now Qatar has to rebuild significant O&G facilities.
My suspicion is that, if Iran tries to toll the Straight, the GCC will use military force to avoid the tolls.
Iran didn't start "randomly bombing them". The US attacked Iran and Iran bombed countries with US bases (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan) or supporting the US. Iran didn't bomb Yemen!
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz
Putting the “Gains” of the War in Perspective
When assessing the outcomes of the war, one point is worth keeping in mind:
A regime that, just days ago, was seen in Washington as a legitimate target for overthrow, is now one it is negotiating with at the highest level of the administration.
That tells you everything you need to know about the real outcome of the war.
After two weeks of negotiations the US is going to end up with a deal that is no better and likely to be substantially worse than the situation that pertained before Trump and Isreal kicked off this madness would be my prediction.
Still the Aberdeen hotelier will be happy as his aides have told him it is a peace deal for the ages.
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
Iran is the enemy of the GCC, and has been for nearly half a century now.
Israel, despite the last couple of years, is now a friend with significant power.
GCC military spending has been pretty high, but the current conflict has drawn them towards countries like Ukraine who understand that you can’t sustainably launch $3m Patriot missiles against $50k drones except as a last resort over O&G facilities.
The most significant shift is likely going to be a distaste of Russia in the GCC, countries that have been pretty much neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict up until now, benefitting from Russian money fleeing Putin.
Bibi has said after the conflict is over people will be surprised at the new alliances forged and that Israel and the GCC were moving closer
Perhaps to no one's great surprise, Washington and Tehran looked over the edge, into the abyss, and didn't much like what they saw.
Should we also note the role of China in all this? The Chinese were set to be big losers from a prolonged disruption of oil supplies or rather from having to buy oil intended for other countries at higher prices.
To save face, China gets its one of its allies to propose the ceasefire but at a point when enough people wanted and needed all this to stop.
And so, it seems, it has - for now and it will be interesting to see if oil prices return to what they were or whether the $90 a barrel world has arrived.
Everyone will claim victory and in a sense everybody has won something - well, not the dead Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese and others but everyone who matters -or at least has won enough to save face in the eyes of the world community and their electorates (delete as applicable).
The longer term implications are the tough ones - the Iranian regime, hated as it is, has endured, seemingly. The hawks have missed their victory but relations between America and the rest of the world and Israel and the rest of the world and perhaps between America and Israel will not be the same.
I suspect when the European media gets back into Iran and is shown the destruction wrought by Washington and Tel Aviv, this will accelerate the increasing estrangement of the Old World (parts of it) from the New (also parts of it).
The missing relationship from your list, is that between Iran and the GCC States which surround it.
These States were not part of any war, until Iran started randomly bombing them on 28th Feb, and are determined to prevent this situation recurring in future.
Until very recently, Qatar was an Iranian ally, and the source of significant funds that ended up funding various Iranian proxies around the region, much to the disdain of their fellow GCC members. The World Cup very nearly didn’t happen, and forced the Qaratis to compromise. Now Iran is very much the enemy of everyone else in the region. Now Qatar has to rebuild significant O&G facilities.
My suspicion is that, if Iran tries to toll the Straight, the GCC will use military force to avoid the tolls.
Iran didn't start "randomly bombing them". The US attacked Iran and Iran bombed countries with US bases (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan) or supporting the US. Iran didn't bomb Yemen!
But they didn’t target the US bases. They targetted energy and civilian infrastructure.
Target US bases. Fair enough. The US was the aggressor after all. Civilian infrastructure less so, but then the US and Israel does that too.
Anthropic's (claims its) new model, Claude Mythos, is so powerful that it is not releasing it to the public.
Instead, it is starting a 40-company coalition, Project Glasswing, to allow cybersecurity defenders a head start in locking down critical software..
..I spoke to Anthropic execs about the new model, which they called a "reckoning" for cybersecurity. They claim it has already found vulnerabilities in every major operating system and web browser, including some that "literally decades of security researchers" didn't find...
..As always, the best stuff is in the system card.
During testing, Claude Mythos Preview broke out of a sandbox environment, built "a moderately sophisticated multi-step exploit" to gain internet access, and emailed a researcher while they were eating a sandwich in the park... https://x.com/kevinroose/status/2041577176915702169
“Our new product is about to break your business model, please pay us milions to avoid that happening…”
Computer scientists have been warning about using memory-unsafe languages since, what, the 60s?
Yes, but C never huddled in the chip and worked out how to escape into your bank account and email you whilst it's doing it.
Perhaps to no one's great surprise, Washington and Tehran looked over the edge, into the abyss, and didn't much like what they saw.
Should we also note the role of China in all this? The Chinese were set to be big losers from a prolonged disruption of oil supplies or rather from having to buy oil intended for other countries at higher prices.
To save face, China gets its one of its allies to propose the ceasefire but at a point when enough people wanted and needed all this to stop.
And so, it seems, it has - for now and it will be interesting to see if oil prices return to what they were or whether the $90 a barrel world has arrived.
Everyone will claim victory and in a sense everybody has won something - well, not the dead Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese and others but everyone who matters -or at least has won enough to save face in the eyes of the world community and their electorates (delete as applicable).
The longer term implications are the tough ones - the Iranian regime, hated as it is, has endured, seemingly. The hawks have missed their victory but relations between America and the rest of the world and Israel and the rest of the world and perhaps between America and Israel will not be the same.
I suspect when the European media gets back into Iran and is shown the destruction wrought by Washington and Tel Aviv, this will accelerate the increasing estrangement of the Old World (parts of it) from the New (also parts of it).
The missing relationship from your list, is that between Iran and the GCC States which surround it.
These States were not part of any war, until Iran started randomly bombing them on 28th Feb, and are determined to prevent this situation recurring in future.
Until very recently, Qatar was an Iranian ally, and the source of significant funds that ended up funding various Iranian proxies around the region, much to the disdain of their fellow GCC members. The World Cup very nearly didn’t happen, and forced the Qaratis to compromise. Now Iran is very much the enemy of everyone else in the region. Now Qatar has to rebuild significant O&G facilities.
My suspicion is that, if Iran tries to toll the Straight, the GCC will use military force to avoid the tolls.
Iran didn't start "randomly bombing them". The US attacked Iran and Iran bombed countries with US bases (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan) or supporting the US. Iran didn't bomb Yemen!
But they didn’t target the US bases. They targetted energy and civilian infrastructure.
Target US bases. Fair enough. The US was the aggressor after all. Civilian infrastructure less so, but then the US and Israel does that too.
I'm not seeking to justify Iran's actions. I'm just saying Iran's actions were not random. They were largely deliberate and sent a clear message to the GCC and other countries. They (largely) chose what countries to attack and what to attack in those countries.
Anthropic's (claims its) new model, Claude Mythos, is so powerful that it is not releasing it to the public.
Instead, it is starting a 40-company coalition, Project Glasswing, to allow cybersecurity defenders a head start in locking down critical software..
..I spoke to Anthropic execs about the new model, which they called a "reckoning" for cybersecurity. They claim it has already found vulnerabilities in every major operating system and web browser, including some that "literally decades of security researchers" didn't find...
..As always, the best stuff is in the system card.
During testing, Claude Mythos Preview broke out of a sandbox environment, built "a moderately sophisticated multi-step exploit" to gain internet access, and emailed a researcher while they were eating a sandwich in the park... https://x.com/kevinroose/status/2041577176915702169
“Our new product is about to break your business model, please pay us milions to avoid that happening…”
Computer scientists have been warning about using memory-unsafe languages since, what, the 60s?
Yes, but C never huddled in the chip and worked out how to escape into your bank account and email you whilst it's doing it.
Anthropic like making grand claims to make their products look more significant than they are. I would take their account with a large pinch of salt.
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
Iran is the enemy of the GCC, and has been for nearly half a century now.
Israel, despite the last couple of years, is now a friend with significant power.
GCC military spending has been pretty high, but the current conflict has drawn them towards countries like Ukraine who understand that you can’t sustainably launch $3m Patriot missiles against $50k drones except as a last resort over O&G facilities.
The most significant shift is likely going to be a distaste of Russia in the GCC, countries that have been pretty much neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict up until now, benefitting from Russian money fleeing Putin.
Bibi has said after the conflict is over people will be surprised at the new alliances forged and that Israel and the GCC were moving closer
I’d well believe it.
The NYT is reporting that hardline Israeli ministers and the like are furious at Netanyahu for accepting a ceasefire without achieving Israel’s objective of “destroying Iran’s theocratic government”
Given that the only way Israel could achieve that is by persuading America to nuke Iran, endangering the world, I am now at the stage of Fuck Israel. Fuck em
Not least because I am likewise persuaded that Israel dragged a foolish Trump into this war in the first place, as was reported and explained very persuasively last night
Major coordinated sabotage attack against French defense companies supplying Ukraine.
3 attacks against electrical infrastructure in Bourges disrupted production at KNDS & MBDA, affecting Caesar self-propelled howitzers, 155 mm artillery shells & SCALP cruise missiles
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
Iran is the enemy of the GCC, and has been for nearly half a century now.
Israel, despite the last couple of years, is now a friend with significant power.
GCC military spending has been pretty high, but the current conflict has drawn them towards countries like Ukraine who understand that you can’t sustainably launch $3m Patriot missiles against $50k drones except as a last resort over O&G facilities.
The most significant shift is likely going to be a distaste of Russia in the GCC, countries that have been pretty much neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict up until now, benefitting from Russian money fleeing Putin.
Bibi has said after the conflict is over people will be surprised at the new alliances forged and that Israel and the GCC were moving closer
I’d well believe it.
The NYT is reporting that hardline Israeli ministers and the like are furious at Netanyahu for accepting a ceasefire without achieving Israel’s objective of “destroying Iran’s theocratic government”
Given that the only way Israel could achieve that is by persuading America to nuke Iran, endangering the world, I am now at the stage of Fuck Israel. Fuck em
Not least because I am likewise persuaded that Israel dragged a foolish Trump into this war in the first place, as was reported and explained very persuasively last night
It is time for America to divorce Israel
If Trump had deployed ground troops he could have removed the regime without nukes but he couldn't be bothered to see through what he started as usual
After two weeks of negotiations the US is going to end up with a deal that is no better and likely to be substantially worse than the situation that pertained before Trump and Isreal kicked off this madness would be my prediction.
Still the Aberdeen hotelier will be happy as his aides have told him it is a peace deal for the ages.
The war has been largely a debacle but I’m not sure we can conclude America is now worse off vis a vis Iran. We don’t know how much America and Israel have degraded Iranian military and infrastructure. It may be very substantial and it’s set back Iran’s nuclear programme by a decade
What we can say is that Trump’s insane behaviour and speech has degraded American standing in the world, and seriously eroded the goodwill of its allies
And again China comes out looking like the more serious and powerful player, enabling peace. As it was apparently China which persuaded Iran to accept the ceasefire and open the Straits
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
Iran is the enemy of the GCC, and has been for nearly half a century now.
Israel, despite the last couple of years, is now a friend with significant power.
GCC military spending has been pretty high, but the current conflict has drawn them towards countries like Ukraine who understand that you can’t sustainably launch $3m Patriot missiles against $50k drones except as a last resort over O&G facilities.
The most significant shift is likely going to be a distaste of Russia in the GCC, countries that have been pretty much neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict up until now, benefitting from Russian money fleeing Putin.
Bibi has said after the conflict is over people will be surprised at the new alliances forged and that Israel and the GCC were moving closer
I’d well believe it.
The NYT is reporting that hardline Israeli ministers and the like are furious at Netanyahu for accepting a ceasefire without achieving Israel’s objective of “destroying Iran’s theocratic government”
Given that the only way Israel could achieve that is by persuading America to nuke Iran, endangering the world, I am now at the stage of Fuck Israel. Fuck em
Not least because I am likewise persuaded that Israel dragged a foolish Trump into this war in the first place, as was reported and explained very persuasively last night
It is time for America to divorce Israel
If Trump had deployed ground troops he could have removed the regime without nukes but he couldn't be bothered to see through what he started as usual
I don’t think that’s true. A ground invasion would have to be enormous to seize and hold Iran. 100,000s of troops. With grotesque casualties
To spell it out, Trump needlessly started a war at the urging of Israel, refused to listen to those experts urging caution, devised a strategy built on a misapprehension of Iran, sparked a ruinous regional conflict, caused the death of thousands of civilians, unhinged the world economy, strengthened, for now, the repressive instincts of the Iranian and Russian governments, left America more discredited & isolated, provoked serious questions about the President’s fitness for public office, laid waste to large parts of Iran and Lebanon, including medical research centres, primary schools and universities, did not resolve Iran’s stockpiles of highly enriched uranium or its future nuclear program, strengthened those in Iran backing possession of a nuclear weapon, and yes ensured Iran and Oman still plan to control and toll the Strait of Hormuz for the first time.
I assume with 2 weeks of ceasefire and open straits we’re going to get a huge flotilla of tankers out of the Gulf, as exporters make up for lost time and ship out as much as humanly possible. Interesting to see to what extent production can be accelerated during this window too.
If the ceasefire then holds and the straits stay open, we’re possibly going to see surplus oil bunkered up in tankers and quite a rapid price drop.
Off out in the sun, but one subcurrent from the Christian Nationalist side.
A fascinating analysis of the structure of the Christian Nationalists, and the rivalry for what comes after Trump. There are three streams:
1 - Hegseth, founded in a Reformed type doctrine. Think South Africa Dutch Reformed Church / Northern Ireland Protestant for the style. They want to build a "Christian Society" on their pattern, over the very long term. Racism, male headship.
2 - Paula White - Trump's faith adviser. Independent charismatic (miracles, prophecy, speaking in tongues) church leaders with many thousands of people, and perhaps a TV programme. Showbusiness and sometimes proven con-trickery. Wanting Christ to return pronto, so keen on the recreation of Israel (as in eg the Book of Revelation). White is Trump's adviser, so controls who gets to see him.
3 - JD Vance. Born again Roman Catholic with his own strange opinions (disagrees with the Pope and the Bishops). Is hankering after Traditionalist Roman Catholicism, as in pre-1960 (clericalism, Latin Mass, perhaps more Papacy if he gets one he likes). Linked to that is a desire for Roman Catholic political power - remember the Papal States and Constantine, which is the 'integralist' angle. This stream has focussed on the Supreme Court via Leonard Leo (Federalist Society). 6 from 9 Scotus Judges are Roman Catholic - compared to 20% of the population.
I'm not entirely with it (I've added a bit of my own to point 3), but it seems to be a sound basic yardstick. That uneasy alliance may break down.
About 10-20 minutes depending how much you follow. Trigger warning: picture of Hegseth tattoos.
After two weeks of negotiations the US is going to end up with a deal that is no better and likely to be substantially worse than the situation that pertained before Trump and Isreal kicked off this madness would be my prediction.
Still the Aberdeen hotelier will be happy as his aides have told him it is a peace deal for the ages.
The war has been largely a debacle but I’m not sure we can conclude America is now worse off vis a vis Iran. We don’t know how much America and Israel have degraded Iranian military and infrastructure. It may be very substantial and it’s set back Iran’s nuclear programme by a decade
What we can say is that Trump’s insane behaviour and speech has degraded American standing in the world, and seriously eroded the goodwill of its allies
And again China comes out looking like the more serious and powerful player, enabling peace. As it was apparently China which persuaded Iran to accept the ceasefire and open the Straits
Agree on China.
Reinforces the Party view that democracy is a flakey system for government.
Not sure we know the nuke programme has been put back a decade?
After two weeks of negotiations the US is going to end up with a deal that is no better and likely to be substantially worse than the situation that pertained before Trump and Isreal kicked off this madness would be my prediction.
Still the Aberdeen hotelier will be happy as his aides have told him it is a peace deal for the ages.
To spell it out, Trump needlessly started a war at the urging of Israel, refused to listen to those experts urging caution, devised a strategy built on a misapprehension of Iran, sparked a ruinous regional conflict, caused the death of thousands of civilians, unhinged the world economy, strengthened, for now, the repressive instincts of the Iranian and Russian governments, left America more discredited & isolated, provoked serious questions about the President’s fitness for public office, laid waste to large parts of Iran and Lebanon, including medical research centres, primary schools and universities, did not resolve Iran’s stockpiles of highly enriched uranium or its future nuclear program, strengthened those in Iran backing possession of a nuclear weapon, and yes ensured Iran and Oman still plan to control and toll the Strait of Hormuz for the first time.
One in eight British residents of the United Arab Emirates has left since Iran launched retaliatory strikes on neighbouring countries in February. Official estimates obtained by the FT show 30,000 British residents — or between 10-15 per cent of the prewar, long-term population — are outside the UAE, raising concerns among school operators banking on growth in student numbers.
The schools are all doing remote learning, quite a few people are taking advantage of this to book time abroad.
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
Iran is the enemy of the GCC, and has been for nearly half a century now.
Israel, despite the last couple of years, is now a friend with significant power.
GCC military spending has been pretty high, but the current conflict has drawn them towards countries like Ukraine who understand that you can’t sustainably launch $3m Patriot missiles against $50k drones except as a last resort over O&G facilities.
The most significant shift is likely going to be a distaste of Russia in the GCC, countries that have been pretty much neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict up until now, benefitting from Russian money fleeing Putin.
Bibi has said after the conflict is over people will be surprised at the new alliances forged and that Israel and the GCC were moving closer
I’d well believe it.
The NYT is reporting that hardline Israeli ministers and the like are furious at Netanyahu for accepting a ceasefire without achieving Israel’s objective of “destroying Iran’s theocratic government”
Given that the only way Israel could achieve that is by persuading America to nuke Iran, endangering the world, I am now at the stage of Fuck Israel. Fuck em
Not least because I am likewise persuaded that Israel dragged a foolish Trump into this war in the first place, as was reported and explained very persuasively last night
It is time for America to divorce Israel
If Trump had deployed ground troops he could have removed the regime without nukes but he couldn't be bothered to see through what he started as usual
I don’t think that’s true. A ground invasion would have to be enormous to seize and hold Iran. 100,000s of troops. With grotesque casualties
Even then, not certain to win
It would win and could have restored the son of the Shah but would need commitment of enough US troops to ensure that which Trump was not willing to do
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
Iran is the enemy of the GCC, and has been for nearly half a century now.
Israel, despite the last couple of years, is now a friend with significant power.
GCC military spending has been pretty high, but the current conflict has drawn them towards countries like Ukraine who understand that you can’t sustainably launch $3m Patriot missiles against $50k drones except as a last resort over O&G facilities.
The most significant shift is likely going to be a distaste of Russia in the GCC, countries that have been pretty much neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict up until now, benefitting from Russian money fleeing Putin.
Bibi has said after the conflict is over people will be surprised at the new alliances forged and that Israel and the GCC were moving closer
I’d well believe it.
The NYT is reporting that hardline Israeli ministers and the like are furious at Netanyahu for accepting a ceasefire without achieving Israel’s objective of “destroying Iran’s theocratic government”
Given that the only way Israel could achieve that is by persuading America to nuke Iran, endangering the world, I am now at the stage of Fuck Israel. Fuck em
Not least because I am likewise persuaded that Israel dragged a foolish Trump into this war in the first place, as was reported and explained very persuasively last night
It is time for America to divorce Israel
If Trump had deployed ground troops he could have removed the regime without nukes but he couldn't be bothered to see through what he started as usual
I don’t think that’s true. A ground invasion would have to be enormous to seize and hold Iran. 100,000s of troops. With grotesque casualties
Even then, not certain to win
I think he would have gone nuke rather than do ground invasion.
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
Iran is the enemy of the GCC, and has been for nearly half a century now.
Israel, despite the last couple of years, is now a friend with significant power.
GCC military spending has been pretty high, but the current conflict has drawn them towards countries like Ukraine who understand that you can’t sustainably launch $3m Patriot missiles against $50k drones except as a last resort over O&G facilities.
The most significant shift is likely going to be a distaste of Russia in the GCC, countries that have been pretty much neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict up until now, benefitting from Russian money fleeing Putin.
Bibi has said after the conflict is over people will be surprised at the new alliances forged and that Israel and the GCC were moving closer
I’d well believe it.
The NYT is reporting that hardline Israeli ministers and the like are furious at Netanyahu for accepting a ceasefire without achieving Israel’s objective of “destroying Iran’s theocratic government”
Given that the only way Israel could achieve that is by persuading America to nuke Iran, endangering the world, I am now at the stage of Fuck Israel. Fuck em
Not least because I am likewise persuaded that Israel dragged a foolish Trump into this war in the first place, as was reported and explained very persuasively last night
It is time for America to divorce Israel
If Trump had deployed ground troops he could have removed the regime without nukes but he couldn't be bothered to see through what he started as usual
I think that is far too optimistic
How may ground troops and how many US body bags ?
Other than Kharg Island, ground troops was never a starter
After two weeks of negotiations the US is going to end up with a deal that is no better and likely to be substantially worse than the situation that pertained before Trump and Isreal kicked off this madness would be my prediction.
Still the Aberdeen hotelier will be happy as his aides have told him it is a peace deal for the ages.
The war has been largely a debacle but I’m not sure we can conclude America is now worse off vis a vis Iran. We don’t know how much America and Israel have degraded Iranian military and infrastructure. It may be very substantial and it’s set back Iran’s nuclear programme by a decade
What we can say is that Trump’s insane behaviour and speech has degraded American standing in the world, and seriously eroded the goodwill of its allies
And again China comes out looking like the more serious and powerful player, enabling peace. As it was apparently China which persuaded Iran to accept the ceasefire and open the Straits
Unlike the US though China is unwilling to intervene militarily in the Middle East or indeed anywhere outside of Far East Asia.
China wants global economic power and to export goods and lend funds repaid with interest globally but it has zero interest being the world's policeman as the US was in the 20th century. It might pursue diplomatic paths to settle conflicts but that is it
Perhaps to no one's great surprise, Washington and Tehran looked over the edge, into the abyss, and didn't much like what they saw.
Should we also note the role of China in all this? The Chinese were set to be big losers from a prolonged disruption of oil supplies or rather from having to buy oil intended for other countries at higher prices.
To save face, China gets its one of its allies to propose the ceasefire but at a point when enough people wanted and needed all this to stop.
And so, it seems, it has - for now and it will be interesting to see if oil prices return to what they were or whether the $90 a barrel world has arrived.
Everyone will claim victory and in a sense everybody has won something - well, not the dead Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese and others but everyone who matters -or at least has won enough to save face in the eyes of the world community and their electorates (delete as applicable).
The longer term implications are the tough ones - the Iranian regime, hated as it is, has endured, seemingly. The hawks have missed their victory but relations between America and the rest of the world and Israel and the rest of the world and perhaps between America and Israel will not be the same.
I suspect when the European media gets back into Iran and is shown the destruction wrought by Washington and Tel Aviv, this will accelerate the increasing estrangement of the Old World (parts of it) from the New (also parts of it).
The missing relationship from your list, is that between Iran and the GCC States which surround it.
These States were not part of any war, until Iran started randomly bombing them on 28th Feb, and are determined to prevent this situation recurring in future.
Until very recently, Qatar was an Iranian ally, and the source of significant funds that ended up funding various Iranian proxies around the region, much to the disdain of their fellow GCC members. The World Cup very nearly didn’t happen, and forced the Qaratis to compromise. Now Iran is very much the enemy of everyone else in the region. Now Qatar has to rebuild significant O&G facilities.
My suspicion is that, if Iran tries to toll the Straight, the GCC will use military force to avoid the tolls.
Iran didn't start "randomly bombing them". The US attacked Iran and Iran bombed countries with US bases (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan) or supporting the US. Iran didn't bomb Yemen!
Except that the GCC countries made it explicitly clear that no attacks on Iran were to be launched from their territories.
That Iran chose to start bombing Dubai and Riyadh, is entirely on Iran.
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
Iran is the enemy of the GCC, and has been for nearly half a century now.
Israel, despite the last couple of years, is now a friend with significant power.
GCC military spending has been pretty high, but the current conflict has drawn them towards countries like Ukraine who understand that you can’t sustainably launch $3m Patriot missiles against $50k drones except as a last resort over O&G facilities.
The most significant shift is likely going to be a distaste of Russia in the GCC, countries that have been pretty much neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict up until now, benefitting from Russian money fleeing Putin.
Bibi has said after the conflict is over people will be surprised at the new alliances forged and that Israel and the GCC were moving closer
I’d well believe it.
The NYT is reporting that hardline Israeli ministers and the like are furious at Netanyahu for accepting a ceasefire without achieving Israel’s objective of “destroying Iran’s theocratic government”
Given that the only way Israel could achieve that is by persuading America to nuke Iran, endangering the world, I am now at the stage of Fuck Israel. Fuck em
Not least because I am likewise persuaded that Israel dragged a foolish Trump into this war in the first place, as was reported and explained very persuasively last night
It is time for America to divorce Israel
If Trump had deployed ground troops he could have removed the regime without nukes but he couldn't be bothered to see through what he started as usual
I don’t think that’s true. A ground invasion would have to be enormous to seize and hold Iran. 100,000s of troops. With grotesque casualties
Even then, not certain to win
I think he would have gone nuke rather than do ground invasion.
It’s why I very much hope this isn’t brushed under the carpet by the GOP (what am I saying, of course it will be).
The precedent this has set for a US president to (impliedly or not) mull over taking extreme civilisation ending steps (the bomb or no) on his dratted social media account, should worry us all.
Even if he had precisely zero intent to do it, even implying he would in such a reckless manner is quite possibly the worst thing he has ever done, and that comes from a very long list.
Normalising throwing around such threats is immensely dangerous. If behaviour like that continues someone at some point in the coming years is going to march themselves to the top of the hill and find it very hard to come back down again. And once the genie is out of the bottle, we are in a very different and incredibly dangerous world.
Perhaps to no one's great surprise, Washington and Tehran looked over the edge, into the abyss, and didn't much like what they saw.
Should we also note the role of China in all this? The Chinese were set to be big losers from a prolonged disruption of oil supplies or rather from having to buy oil intended for other countries at higher prices.
To save face, China gets its one of its allies to propose the ceasefire but at a point when enough people wanted and needed all this to stop.
And so, it seems, it has - for now and it will be interesting to see if oil prices return to what they were or whether the $90 a barrel world has arrived.
Everyone will claim victory and in a sense everybody has won something - well, not the dead Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese and others but everyone who matters -or at least has won enough to save face in the eyes of the world community and their electorates (delete as applicable).
The longer term implications are the tough ones - the Iranian regime, hated as it is, has endured, seemingly. The hawks have missed their victory but relations between America and the rest of the world and Israel and the rest of the world and perhaps between America and Israel will not be the same.
I suspect when the European media gets back into Iran and is shown the destruction wrought by Washington and Tel Aviv, this will accelerate the increasing estrangement of the Old World (parts of it) from the New (also parts of it).
The missing relationship from your list, is that between Iran and the GCC States which surround it.
These States were not part of any war, until Iran started randomly bombing them on 28th Feb, and are determined to prevent this situation recurring in future.
Until very recently, Qatar was an Iranian ally, and the source of significant funds that ended up funding various Iranian proxies around the region, much to the disdain of their fellow GCC members. The World Cup very nearly didn’t happen, and forced the Qaratis to compromise. Now Iran is very much the enemy of everyone else in the region. Now Qatar has to rebuild significant O&G facilities.
My suspicion is that, if Iran tries to toll the Straight, the GCC will use military force to avoid the tolls.
Iran didn't start "randomly bombing them". The US attacked Iran and Iran bombed countries with US bases (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan) or supporting the US. Iran didn't bomb Yemen!
Except that the GCC countries made it explicitly clear that no attacks on Iran were to be launched from their territories.
That Iran chose to start bombing Dubai and Riyadh, is entirely on Iran.
It is entirely on Iran, yes. But it wasn't random. It was deliberate and sent a specific message.
@Sandpit makes a valuable point - the conflict and its impact on the Gulf States.
It's an inexact parallel (they always are) but the GCC states findthemselves in a place adjacent to that of the European NATO countries.
I don't know the numbers but I suspect the GCC haven't spent as much on defence as you might imagine given the enormous oil wealth flowing in to these states and the current conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in the protection of crucial infrastructure.
Obviously, money is no object to buying up and installing more sophisticated anti-missile and other defence systems but the GCC may now see the virtue of acting autonomously - how they will react to Israel going forward I'm less certain, while the enemy of my enemy is my friend (apparently), I detect a required circumspection (had to write that carefully) in terms of relations with Jerusalem.
Could the GCC emerge as an independent power broker in the region - will they seek a new relationship with a post-NATO Europe which brings in Turkey to the equation? It's a potentially significant and perhaps seismic shift in relationship dynamics across the region.
Could we see more British, French and other European infrastructure in the region as and if America withdraws to its own backyard?
Iran is the enemy of the GCC, and has been for nearly half a century now.
Israel, despite the last couple of years, is now a friend with significant power.
GCC military spending has been pretty high, but the current conflict has drawn them towards countries like Ukraine who understand that you can’t sustainably launch $3m Patriot missiles against $50k drones except as a last resort over O&G facilities.
The most significant shift is likely going to be a distaste of Russia in the GCC, countries that have been pretty much neutral on the Russia-Ukraine conflict up until now, benefitting from Russian money fleeing Putin.
Bibi has said after the conflict is over people will be surprised at the new alliances forged and that Israel and the GCC were moving closer
I’d well believe it.
The NYT is reporting that hardline Israeli ministers and the like are furious at Netanyahu for accepting a ceasefire without achieving Israel’s objective of “destroying Iran’s theocratic government”
Given that the only way Israel could achieve that is by persuading America to nuke Iran, endangering the world, I am now at the stage of Fuck Israel. Fuck em
Not least because I am likewise persuaded that Israel dragged a foolish Trump into this war in the first place, as was reported and explained very persuasively last night
It is time for America to divorce Israel
If Trump had deployed ground troops he could have removed the regime without nukes but he couldn't be bothered to see through what he started as usual
I don’t think that’s true. A ground invasion would have to be enormous to seize and hold Iran. 100,000s of troops. With grotesque casualties
Even then, not certain to win
For all his many faults, Trump doesn’t want to see planeloads of coffins land in the US every week, as happened in Iraq and Afghanistan. He’s always been clear on that point.
Starmer has immediately flown to the Middle East to emphasise his crucial role in the US-Iran ceasefire, which he didn’t broker, didn’t know was coming, didn’t participate in shaping and had absolutely no part in whatsoever
Starmer has immediately flown to the Middle East to emphasise his crucial role in the US-Iran ceasefire, which he didn’t broker, didn’t know was coming, didn’t participate in shaping and had absolutely no part in whatsoever
Off out in the sun, but one subcurrent from the Christian Nationalist side.
A fascinating analysis of the structure of the Christian Nationalists, and the rivalry for what comes after Trump. There are three streams:
1 - Hegseth, founded in a Reformed type doctrine. Think South Africa Dutch Reformed Church / Northern Ireland Protestant for the style. They want to build a "Christian Society" on their pattern, over the very long term. Racism, male headship.
2 - Paula White - Trump's faith adviser. Independent charismatic (miracles, prophecy, speaking in tongues) church leaders with many thousands of people, and perhaps a TV programme. Showbusiness and sometimes proven con-trickery. Wanting Christ to return pronto, so keen on the recreation of Israel (as in eg the Book of Revelation). White is Trump's adviser, so controls who gets to see him.
3 - JD Vance. Born again Roman Catholic with his own strange opinions (disagrees with the Pope and the Bishops). Is hankering after Traditionalist Roman Catholicism, as in pre-1960 (clericalism, Latin Mass, perhaps more Papacy if he gets one he likes). Linked to that is a desire for Roman Catholic political power - remember the Papal States and Constantine, which is the 'integralist' angle. This stream has focussed on the Supreme Court via Leonard Leo (Federalist Society). 6 from 9 Scotus Judges are Roman Catholic - compared to 20% of the population.
I'm not entirely with it (I've added a bit of my own to point 3), but it seems to be a sound basic yardstick. That uneasy alliance may break down.
About 10-20 minutes depending how much you follow. Trigger warning: picture of Hegseth tattoos.
Starmer has immediately flown to the Middle East to emphasise his crucial role in the US-Iran ceasefire, which he didn’t broker, didn’t know was coming, didn’t participate in shaping and had absolutely no part in whatsoever
'Before you cheer for this so called ceasefire, consider this:
As an Iranian, I would genuinely feel much better waking up tomorrow to absolutely no water, no power, and no gas, than waking up to a perfectly functioning grid just to realize we still have the mullahs alongside it.
That is how vile our captors are. We can survive the dark. We cannot survive your "peace."'
The more you look at the world, the more often you realize how much healthier Ukrainian society has become when it comes to coexistence between nationalities and faiths.
We weren’t always like this. We are becoming this now — as the country is being radically transformed by revolution and by the defense against imperial Russia.
We are shedding the weight of so many remnants of the past — really fast.
Thank you, that's inspiring. Nothing like a common enemy for drawing people together.
It’s remarkably similar to what’s been seen in the UAE in recent weeks.
Also the Artemis moon flyby, which briefly united the world (apart from one Guardian hack) in seeing what humanity can do.
Yes, I remember when the Apollo mission was in trouble (was it 13) it was as if the whole world was praying or wishing them a safe return.
Starmer has immediately flown to the Middle East to emphasise his crucial role in the US-Iran ceasefire, which he didn’t broker, didn’t know was coming, didn’t participate in shaping and had absolutely no part in whatsoever
'Before you cheer for this so called ceasefire, consider this:
As an Iranian, I would genuinely feel much better waking up tomorrow to absolutely no water, no power, and no gas, than waking up to a perfectly functioning grid just to realize we still have the mullahs alongside it.
That is how vile our captors are. We can survive the dark. We cannot survive your "peace."'
'Before you cheer for this so called ceasefire, consider this:
As an Iranian, I would genuinely feel much better waking up tomorrow to absolutely no water, no power, and no gas, than waking up to a perfectly functioning grid just to realize we still have the mullahs alongside it.
That is how vile our captors are. We can survive the dark. We cannot survive your "peace."'
The more you look at the world, the more often you realize how much healthier Ukrainian society has become when it comes to coexistence between nationalities and faiths.
We weren’t always like this. We are becoming this now — as the country is being radically transformed by revolution and by the defense against imperial Russia.
We are shedding the weight of so many remnants of the past — really fast.
Thank you, that's inspiring. Nothing like a common enemy for drawing people together.
It’s remarkably similar to what’s been seen in the UAE in recent weeks.
Also the Artemis moon flyby, which briefly united the world (apart from one Guardian hack) in seeing what humanity can do.
Yes, I remember when the Apollo mission was in trouble (was it 13) it was as if the whole world was praying or wishing them a safe return.
I'm not sure that many people care about Artemis. It's just another rocket when we've become used to watching Elon's launches every few weeks. It will be interesting to see the ratings.
Off out in the sun, but one subcurrent from the Christian Nationalist side.
A fascinating analysis of the structure of the Christian Nationalists, and the rivalry for what comes after Trump. There are three streams:
1 - Hegseth, founded in a Reformed type doctrine. Think South Africa Dutch Reformed Church / Northern Ireland Protestant for the style. They want to build a "Christian Society" on their pattern, over the very long term. Racism, male headship.
2 - Paula White - Trump's faith adviser. Independent charismatic (miracles, prophecy, speaking in tongues) church leaders with many thousands of people, and perhaps a TV programme. Showbusiness and sometimes proven con-trickery. Wanting Christ to return pronto, so keen on the recreation of Israel (as in eg the Book of Revelation). White is Trump's adviser, so controls who gets to see him.
3 - JD Vance. Born again Roman Catholic with his own strange opinions (disagrees with the Pope and the Bishops). Is hankering after Traditionalist Roman Catholicism, as in pre-1960 (clericalism, Latin Mass, perhaps more Papacy if he gets one he likes). Linked to that is a desire for Roman Catholic political power - remember the Papal States and Constantine, which is the 'integralist' angle. This stream has focussed on the Supreme Court via Leonard Leo (Federalist Society). 6 from 9 Scotus Judges are Roman Catholic - compared to 20% of the population.
I'm not entirely with it (I've added a bit of my own to point 3), but it seems to be a sound basic yardstick. That uneasy alliance may break down.
About 10-20 minutes depending how much you follow. Trigger warning: picture of Hegseth tattoos.
The more you look at the world, the more often you realize how much healthier Ukrainian society has become when it comes to coexistence between nationalities and faiths.
We weren’t always like this. We are becoming this now — as the country is being radically transformed by revolution and by the defense against imperial Russia.
We are shedding the weight of so many remnants of the past — really fast.
Thank you, that's inspiring. Nothing like a common enemy for drawing people together.
It’s remarkably similar to what’s been seen in the UAE in recent weeks.
Also the Artemis moon flyby, which briefly united the world (apart from one Guardian hack) in seeing what humanity can do.
Yes, I remember when the Apollo mission was in trouble (was it 13) it was as if the whole world was praying or wishing them a safe return.
Yes Apollo 13, in 1970.
I was born in 1977, only five years after Apollo but might as well have been 50 years given my lack of cultural references to it.
I do however remember the Challenger disaster in 1986, when I was eight years old. John Craven’s Newsround, which was a lot better than the hundreds of thousands of American kids who watched it live in schools thanks to the ‘teacher in space’ programme, that had spent months looking forward to Christina McAuliffe’s lessons from space.
I'm having problems viewing PB on Chrome for Android. This morning there were 0 comments and I had to view on Vanilla, and now that is fixed but I have had problems scrolling for the last couple of days, the site seems "sticky" and I can scroll one or two times and it gets stuck. This may be connected with a recent Android update which caused other problems including deleting all my pinned web shortcuts apart from those that identify as apps
I'm having problems viewing PB on Chrome for Android. This morning there were 0 comments and I had to view on Vanilla, and now that is fixed but I have had problems scrolling for the last couple of days, the site seems "sticky" and I can scroll one or two times and it gets stuck. This may be connected with a recent Android update which caused other problems including deleting all my pinned web shortcuts apart from those that identify as apps
We're having increasing issues with Android. Multiple occasions where apps like Sumup or Shopify abruptly stop working properly on Android tablets but work fine on iPad...
5) Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are already threatening that they will collapse the government if the two-week pause transitions into a permanent arrangement without the full dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
5) Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are already threatening that they will collapse the government if the two-week pause transitions into a permanent arrangement without the full dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Perhaps to no one's great surprise, Washington and Tehran looked over the edge, into the abyss, and didn't much like what they saw.
Should we also note the role of China in all this? The Chinese were set to be big losers from a prolonged disruption of oil supplies or rather from having to buy oil intended for other countries at higher prices.
To save face, China gets its one of its allies to propose the ceasefire but at a point when enough people wanted and needed all this to stop.
And so, it seems, it has - for now and it will be interesting to see if oil prices return to what they were or whether the $90 a barrel world has arrived.
Everyone will claim victory and in a sense everybody has won something - well, not the dead Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese and others but everyone who matters -or at least has won enough to save face in the eyes of the world community and their electorates (delete as applicable).
The longer term implications are the tough ones - the Iranian regime, hated as it is, has endured, seemingly. The hawks have missed their victory but relations between America and the rest of the world and Israel and the rest of the world and perhaps between America and Israel will not be the same.
I suspect when the European media gets back into Iran and is shown the destruction wrought by Washington and Tel Aviv, this will accelerate the increasing estrangement of the Old World (parts of it) from the New (also parts of it).
The missing relationship from your list, is that between Iran and the GCC States which surround it.
These States were not part of any war, until Iran started randomly bombing them on 28th Feb, and are determined to prevent this situation recurring in future.
Until very recently, Qatar was an Iranian ally, and the source of significant funds that ended up funding various Iranian proxies around the region, much to the disdain of their fellow GCC members. The World Cup very nearly didn’t happen, and forced the Qaratis to compromise. Now Iran is very much the enemy of everyone else in the region. Now Qatar has to rebuild significant O&G facilities.
My suspicion is that, if Iran tries to toll the Straight, the GCC will use military force to avoid the tolls.
Iran didn't start "randomly bombing them". The US attacked Iran and Iran bombed countries with US bases (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan) or supporting the US. Iran didn't bomb Yemen!
But they didn’t target the US bases. They targeted energy and civilian infrastructure.
Target US bases. Fair enough. The US was the aggressor after all. Civilian infrastructure less so, but then the US and Israel does that too.
If you're talking international law, sure.
But what brought Trump to the ceasefire table was the targeting of the world economy via the Gulf states' energy infrastructure. "Fair" isn't a concept recognised by Iran's regime.
I can't see how this "ceasefire" holds when all sides have a different view as to what it covers...
They have a shared view of how costly renewed hostilities might be to each of them, though. I can see an uneasy ceasefire holding; it stores up problems for the future, but it also gives time to work out how to address them.
5) Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are already threatening that they will collapse the government if the two-week pause transitions into a permanent arrangement without the full dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
The more you look at the world, the more often you realize how much healthier Ukrainian society has become when it comes to coexistence between nationalities and faiths.
We weren’t always like this. We are becoming this now — as the country is being radically transformed by revolution and by the defense against imperial Russia.
We are shedding the weight of so many remnants of the past — really fast.
Thank you, that's inspiring. Nothing like a common enemy for drawing people together.
It’s remarkably similar to what’s been seen in the UAE in recent weeks.
Also the Artemis moon flyby, which briefly united the world (apart from one Guardian hack) in seeing what humanity can do.
Yes, I remember when the Apollo mission was in trouble (was it 13) it was as if the whole world was praying or wishing them a safe return.
I remember watching the first moon landing in glorious, fuzzy black and white.
Starmer has immediately flown to the Middle East to emphasise his crucial role in the US-Iran ceasefire, which he didn’t broker, didn’t know was coming, didn’t participate in shaping and had absolutely no part in whatsoever
Fake news. The visit was planned beforehand.
I believe you. He likes flying to foreign countries to speak to foreign people about issues he can't control and isn't held responsible for. So much better than working.
Starmer has immediately flown to the Middle East to emphasise his crucial role in the US-Iran ceasefire, which he didn’t broker, didn’t know was coming, didn’t participate in shaping and had absolutely no part in whatsoever
Fake news. The visit was planned beforehand.
I believe you. He likes flying to foreign countries to speak to foreign people about issues he can't control and isn't held responsible for. So much better than working.
I would assume there is going to be a bit of a scramble for shipping priority over the next two weeks? In that he can probably make a difference, at the margins, and probably should be trying to.
I assume with 2 weeks of ceasefire and open straits we’re going to get a huge flotilla of tankers out of the Gulf, as exporters make up for lost time and ship out as much as humanly possible. Interesting to see to what extent production can be accelerated during this window too.
If the ceasefire then holds and the straits stay open, we’re possibly going to see surplus oil bunkered up in tankers and quite a rapid price drop.
I suspect we will also now see a glut of new proposed pipeline projects across the Arabian peninsula.
After two weeks of negotiations the US is going to end up with a deal that is no better and likely to be substantially worse than the situation that pertained before Trump and Isreal kicked off this madness would be my prediction.
Still the Aberdeen hotelier will be happy as his aides have told him it is a peace deal for the ages.
9 wars stopped as well, Nobel Peace prize a certainty
After two weeks of negotiations the US is going to end up with a deal that is no better and likely to be substantially worse than the situation that pertained before Trump and Isreal kicked off this madness would be my prediction.
Still the Aberdeen hotelier will be happy as his aides have told him it is a peace deal for the ages.
9 wars stopped as well, Nobel Peace prize a certainty
I feel a Nobel Peace Prize is not enough. Maybe they could create a new Hall of Fame Lifetime Achievement Nobel/FIFA Peace Prize just for him?
The more you look at the world, the more often you realize how much healthier Ukrainian society has become when it comes to coexistence between nationalities and faiths.
We weren’t always like this. We are becoming this now — as the country is being radically transformed by revolution and by the defense against imperial Russia.
We are shedding the weight of so many remnants of the past — really fast.
Thank you, that's inspiring. Nothing like a common enemy for drawing people together.
It’s remarkably similar to what’s been seen in the UAE in recent weeks.
Also the Artemis moon flyby, which briefly united the world (apart from one Guardian hack) in seeing what humanity can do.
Yes, I remember when the Apollo mission was in trouble (was it 13) it was as if the whole world was praying or wishing them a safe return.
I'm not sure that many people care about Artemis. It's just another rocket when we've become used to watching Elon's launches every few weeks. It will be interesting to see the ratings.
the one where they land people on moon will be of great interest for sure.
The White House staff seem rather tetchy. I get that Owen can be a bit irritating but I would have thought that traditionally the WH director of comms should be above screeching obscenities at him.
You have no idea what the fuck you’re talking about you loser. Go back to whatever hole you crawled out of because you clearly can’t read
Starmer has immediately flown to the Middle East to emphasise his crucial role in the US-Iran ceasefire, which he didn’t broker, didn’t know was coming, didn’t participate in shaping and had absolutely no part in whatsoever
Fake news. The visit was planned beforehand.
I believe you. He likes flying to foreign countries to speak to foreign people about issues he can't control and isn't held responsible for. So much better than working.
I would assume there is going to be a bit of a scramble for shipping priority over the next two weeks? In that he can probably make a difference, at the margins, and probably should be trying to.
Oh, fair point. I was responding to bondegezou's point that the trip had been planned beforehand.
Plus I have to point out that that's the job of the Foreign Secretary, surely. Elsewise what is Yvette Cooper for exactly?
After two weeks of negotiations the US is going to end up with a deal that is no better and likely to be substantially worse than the situation that pertained before Trump and Isreal kicked off this madness would be my prediction.
Still the Aberdeen hotelier will be happy as his aides have told him it is a peace deal for the ages.
The war has been largely a debacle but I’m not sure we can conclude America is now worse off vis a vis Iran. We don’t know how much America and Israel have degraded Iranian military and infrastructure. It may be very substantial and it’s set back Iran’s nuclear programme by a decade
What we can say is that Trump’s insane behaviour and speech has degraded American standing in the world, and seriously eroded the goodwill of its allies
And again China comes out looking like the more serious and powerful player, enabling peace. As it was apparently China which persuaded Iran to accept the ceasefire and open the Straits
Has shown that USA are all talk and cannot beat a small middle east country. China must be laughing up their cuffs.
After two weeks of negotiations the US is going to end up with a deal that is no better and likely to be substantially worse than the situation that pertained before Trump and Isreal kicked off this madness would be my prediction.
Still the Aberdeen hotelier will be happy as his aides have told him it is a peace deal for the ages.
The war has been largely a debacle but I’m not sure we can conclude America is now worse off vis a vis Iran. We don’t know how much America and Israel have degraded Iranian military and infrastructure. It may be very substantial and it’s set back Iran’s nuclear programme by a decade
What we can say is that Trump’s insane behaviour and speech has degraded American standing in the world, and seriously eroded the goodwill of its allies
And again China comes out looking like the more serious and powerful player, enabling peace. As it was apparently China which persuaded Iran to accept the ceasefire and open the Straits
Has shown that USA are all talk and cannot beat a small middle east country. China must be laughing up their cuffs.
Israel too are struggling. They wouldn’t commit to boots on the ground in Iran, the US needs to do their bidding.
The White House staff seem rather tetchy. I get that Owen can be a bit irritating but I would have thought that traditionally the WH director of comms should be above screeching obscenities at him.
You have no idea what the fuck you’re talking about you loser. Go back to whatever hole you crawled out of because you clearly can’t read
Had to check it wasnt a parody account, really, this is a WH comms director? May as well just let angry teenage boys take turns as work experience and ask them to be as annoying as possible.
One in eight British residents of the United Arab Emirates has left since Iran launched retaliatory strikes on neighbouring countries in February. Official estimates obtained by the FT show 30,000 British residents — or between 10-15 per cent of the prewar, long-term population — are outside the UAE, raising concerns among school operators banking on growth in student numbers.
The schools are all doing remote learning, quite a few people are taking advantage of this to book time abroad.
it's the teachers I heard that are deciding to leave
President Trump says any country supplying weapons to Iran will be “immediately tariffed on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately.”
Comments
An old family friend was an RAF instructor, spent a lot of time in Saudi Arabia back in the Tornado days.
Most of the Gulf exports head East, and the GCC has been trying to thread the needle of neutrality between China and the West with BRICS for several years now, including stuff like oil deals priced in Yuan.
But there’s also suggestions that China has months of supply in storage, more than the West, so I honestly don’t know what to think right now.
A ceasefire with the Straight opened, however, makes a massive difference. As a random example, I can see from my place in Dubai at least three cruise ships which have been stuck in Port Rashid since 28th Feb. getting them out is a priority for the lines who must be losing millions per day they’re not at sea.
@citrinowicz
Putting the “Gains” of the War in Perspective
When assessing the outcomes of the war, one point is worth keeping in mind:
A regime that, just days ago, was seen in Washington as a legitimate target for overthrow, is now one it is negotiating with at the highest level of the administration.
That tells you everything you need to know about the real outcome of the war.
https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2041799098081190390
After two weeks of negotiations the US is going to end up with a deal that is no better and likely to be substantially worse than the situation that pertained before Trump and Isreal kicked off this madness would be my prediction.
Still the Aberdeen hotelier will be happy as his aides have told him it is a peace deal for the ages.
I’d well believe it.
Target US bases. Fair enough. The US was the aggressor after all. Civilian infrastructure less so, but then the US and Israel does that too.
Yesterday afternoon I was calmly discussing the prospects of the flight with the PR company organising it
“If it’s just a ground invasion then the flight should go ahead..”
“I agree”
“But if they do drop a nuclear bomb surely all flights will be grounded, at least in Eurasia”
“That’s what we think, as well”
Etc etc
Truly surreal
Given that the only way Israel could achieve that is by persuading America to nuke Iran, endangering the world, I am now at the stage of Fuck Israel. Fuck em
Not least because I am likewise persuaded that Israel dragged a foolish Trump into this war in the first place, as was reported and explained very persuasively last night
It is time for America to divorce Israel
Major coordinated sabotage attack against French defense companies supplying Ukraine.
3 attacks against electrical infrastructure in Bourges disrupted production at KNDS & MBDA, affecting Caesar self-propelled howitzers, 155 mm artillery shells & SCALP cruise missiles
Chairman of the Knesset National Security Committee Tzvika Foghel has just deleted this moments after posting it:
https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3mixzonfsqc2w
Jim Pickard
@pickardje.bsky.social
so the strait - which was open six weeks ago - will reopen and that will be presented as some kind of victory?
https://bsky.app/profile/pickardje.bsky.social/post/3mixw3uezy222
No it will be presented as a triumph to echo down the ages of military history.
What we can say is that Trump’s insane behaviour and speech has degraded American standing in the world, and seriously eroded the goodwill of its allies
And again China comes out looking like the more serious and powerful player, enabling peace. As it was apparently China which persuaded Iran to accept the ceasefire and open the Straits
Even then, not certain to win
To spell it out, Trump needlessly started a war at the urging of Israel, refused to listen to those experts urging caution, devised a strategy built on a misapprehension of Iran, sparked a ruinous regional conflict, caused the death of thousands of civilians, unhinged the world economy, strengthened, for now, the repressive instincts of the Iranian and Russian governments, left America more discredited & isolated, provoked serious questions about the President’s fitness for public office, laid waste to large parts of Iran and Lebanon, including medical research centres, primary schools and universities, did not resolve Iran’s stockpiles of highly enriched uranium or its future nuclear program, strengthened those in Iran backing possession of a nuclear weapon, and yes ensured Iran and Oman still plan to control and toll the Strait of Hormuz for the first time.
https://x.com/patrickwintour/status/2041745653374534028
Yeh, but other than that, it's a triumph right?
If the ceasefire then holds and the straits stay open, we’re possibly going to see surplus oil bunkered up in tankers and quite a rapid price drop.
A fascinating analysis of the structure of the Christian Nationalists, and the rivalry for what comes after Trump. There are three streams:
1 - Hegseth, founded in a Reformed type doctrine. Think South Africa Dutch Reformed Church / Northern Ireland Protestant for the style. They want to build a "Christian Society" on their pattern, over the very long term. Racism, male headship.
2 - Paula White - Trump's faith adviser. Independent charismatic (miracles, prophecy, speaking in tongues) church leaders with many thousands of people, and perhaps a TV programme. Showbusiness and sometimes proven con-trickery. Wanting Christ to return pronto, so keen on the recreation of Israel (as in eg the Book of Revelation). White is Trump's adviser, so controls who gets to see him.
3 - JD Vance. Born again Roman Catholic with his own strange opinions (disagrees with the Pope and the Bishops). Is hankering after Traditionalist Roman Catholicism, as in pre-1960 (clericalism, Latin Mass, perhaps more Papacy if he gets one he likes). Linked to that is a desire for Roman Catholic political power - remember the Papal States and Constantine, which is the 'integralist' angle. This stream has focussed on the Supreme Court via Leonard Leo (Federalist Society). 6 from 9 Scotus Judges are Roman Catholic - compared to 20% of the population.
I'm not entirely with it (I've added a bit of my own to point 3), but it seems to be a sound basic yardstick. That uneasy alliance may break down.
About 10-20 minutes depending how much you follow. Trigger warning: picture of Hegseth tattoos.
https://youtu.be/LFUj105fPhc?t=112
https://x.com/sajwani/status/2041818588307497415
UAE air alarms active this afternoon.
Reinforces the Party view that democracy is a flakey system for government.
Not sure we know the nuke programme has been put back a decade?
25th needed.
How may ground troops and how many US body bags ?
Other than Kharg Island, ground troops was never a starter
China wants global economic power and to export goods and lend funds repaid with interest globally but it has zero interest being the world's policeman as the US was in the 20th century. It might pursue diplomatic paths to settle conflicts but that is it
That Iran chose to start bombing Dubai and Riyadh, is entirely on Iran.
The precedent this has set for a US president to (impliedly or not) mull over taking extreme civilisation ending steps (the bomb or no) on his dratted social media account, should worry us all.
Even if he had precisely zero intent to do it, even implying he would in such a reckless manner is quite possibly the worst thing he has ever done, and that comes from a very long list.
Normalising throwing around such threats is immensely dangerous. If behaviour like that continues someone at some point in the coming years is going to march themselves to the top of the hill and find it very hard to come back down again. And once the genie is out of the bottle, we are in a very different and incredibly dangerous world.
Starmer has immediately flown to the Middle East to emphasise his crucial role in the US-Iran ceasefire, which he didn’t broker, didn’t know was coming, didn’t participate in shaping and had absolutely no part in whatsoever
It’s the way they tell’em
LAB: 20% (+1)
CON: 19% (-2)
GRN: 12% (=)
LDM: 12% (+1)
SNP: 2% (=)
Via
@Moreincommon_
, 2-7 Apr.
Changes w/ 28-30 Mar.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2041791751099187693?s=20
As an Iranian, I would genuinely feel much better waking up tomorrow to absolutely no water, no power, and no gas, than waking up to a perfectly functioning grid just to realize we still have the mullahs alongside it.
That is how vile our captors are. We can survive the dark. We cannot survive your "peace."'
https://x.com/ItsDecado/status/2041747071066165553?s=20
🇾🇪 Yemeni couples are now hiring Trump impersonators for their weddings.🤣🤣🤣🤣
https://x.com/dd_geopolitics/status/2041607191380082793?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
I was born in 1977, only five years after Apollo but might as well have been 50 years given my lack of cultural references to it.
I do however remember the Challenger disaster in 1986, when I was eight years old. John Craven’s Newsround, which was a lot better than the hundreds of thousands of American kids who watched it live in schools thanks to the ‘teacher in space’ programme, that had spent months looking forward to Christina McAuliffe’s lessons from space.
5) Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are already threatening that they will collapse the government if the two-week pause transitions into a permanent arrangement without the full dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
https://x.com/academic_la/status/2041787798437687370
Fuck them
Let them.
@phildstewart
Vance described the situation as a "fragile truce":
https://x.com/phildstewart/status/2041834717394121067
But what brought Trump to the ceasefire table was the targeting of the world economy via the Gulf states' energy infrastructure. "Fair" isn't a concept recognised by Iran's regime.
I can see an uneasy ceasefire holding; it stores up problems for the future, but it also gives time to work out how to address them.
https://x.com/clashreport/status/2041826268392374459
Strikes hit an Iranian oil refinery on Lavan Island today.
Iran is now retaliating with strikes on targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE.
You have no idea what the fuck you’re talking about you loser. Go back to whatever hole you crawled out of because you clearly can’t read
https://x.com/stevencheung47/status/2041672624866996635?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Plus I have to point out that that's the job of the Foreign Secretary, surely. Elsewise what is Yvette Cooper for exactly?
I am not at all sure this ceasefire will hold
There are malign actors in Iran and Israel that seem to want it to fail and continue hostilities
No enrichment of uranium in Iran, Trump says - as he reveals extended 15-point plan
Donald Trump has rejected one of Iran's key points for the ceasefire agreement.
Posting on Truth Social, the Trump says the US will "work closely" with Iran but "There will be no enrichment of Uranium".
One of the features of 10-point peace plan previously reported by Iranian state media was the country's right to enrich.
The US president does agree with some of the other points, however, saying Washington will be "talking Tariff and Sanctions relief" with Tehran.
In a variation to what's been reported already, Trump says many of the "15" points have already been agreed to.
Minutes later, Trump outlines a punishment from the US for supplying Iran with military weapons in a follow-up post
50% tariff on all goods, "effective immediately".
It would be 99.98%
They’re also struggling to go further in Lebanon.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/8GJrkEqAdLY
Trump gambled on Iran and he won
The US president used the wiles of a street fighter to pull a ceasefire deal out of the bag" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/04/08/iran-is-still-too-dangerous-to-accept-a-permanent-ceasefire/
President Trump says any country supplying weapons to Iran will be “immediately tariffed on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately.”
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnobelpeace/nobel-peace-prize/kxnobelpeace-26
Trading at 5-6% chance.