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This presages a truly terrible night for the Republicans in November – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,173
edited April 8 in General
This presages a truly terrible night for the Republicans in November – politicalbetting.com

NEW: Donald Trump is underwater with registered voters in **135** GOP-held House and Senate seats. His approval is <45% in 44, including 10 senators. Should be a warning for Republicans in Congress weighing electoral cost of Trump's war and crazy tweets.https://t.co/mk11ZLAxV7</p&gt;

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580
    Scott_xP said:

    Where are the Scottish subsamples?

    I realised I gave PBers two AV threads last week, a Scottish subsamples thread would have been too much of a sugar rush.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,874
    Scott_xP said:

    Where are the Scottish subsamples?

    Scotland.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,159
    Trump and GOP about to meet the FO stage of FAFO.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,922
    It will depend on gas prices in November and I suspect Trump will turn it round slightly but not by much.

    Mind you at some point people are going to talk about Epstein again at which point Cuba will have to come into play..
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342
    It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".

    If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.

    So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.

    There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.

    Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,140
    edited April 8
    Trump Admits Defeat

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCHTWMm44zo
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,874
    Assuming that this deal sticks, how sticky does the economic situation get and for how long? These "bad effects now because of something that happened in the past and is now notionally over" things tend to annoy Mr and Mrs General Public a lot.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,520
    Roger said:

    Trump Admits Defeat

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCHTWMm44zo

    https://x.com/IRanMediaco/status/2041695475070533701?s=20
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    RochdalePioneers said:

    It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".

    If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.

    So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.

    There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.

    Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...

    I suspect it will be Canada, although they may save that for 2028 and Presidential elections. Of course I will be accused of TDS, then when it happens the same people will say well no-one could foresee that happening......
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,513
    Stuartinromford said:

    Assuming that this deal sticks, how sticky does the economic situation get and for how long? These "bad effects now because of something that happened in the past and is now notionally over" things tend to annoy Mr and Mrs General Public a lot.

    Plus governments need to assume any respite will only be temporary and that resources need to be used for enhancing strategic security as opposed to more welfare for the general public.

    Which means the planned increases in fuel duties need to happen.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671
    Taz said:

    Trump and GOP about to meet the FO stage of FAFO.

    Fat ****, **** off ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,863
    Scott_xP said:

    Roger said:

    Trump Admits Defeat

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCHTWMm44zo

    https://x.com/IRanMediaco/status/2041695475070533701?s=20
    That is not real. No way could the real Trump walk downstairs without holding the rail tightly.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,865
    edited April 8
    Stuartinromford said:

    Assuming that this deal sticks, how sticky does the economic situation get and for how long? These "bad effects now because of something that happened in the past and is now notionally over" things tend to annoy Mr and Mrs General Public a lot.

    There is likely to be a burst of high inflation say to 6% by late 2026 both here and in USA even if the ceasefire holds because of the disruption to energy flows which have already taken place. This may abate from end 2026 but will cause unpleasantness for people's pockets in the shorter term and will be a factor in the mid terms.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,159
    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Trump and GOP about to meet the FO stage of FAFO.

    Fat ****, **** off ?
    Fuck Around Find Out

    He’s fucked around. Badly. He has no possible good legacy

    Mid terms he finds out
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,181
    Labour down to 16% with Yougov

    Reform up 1%

    Reform gain is quite incredible

    https://x.com/i/status/2041757210171048042
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,305
    Nigelb said:

    Peltola's campaign slogan - "Fish Family Freedom".

    Pro-Fish Alaska Democratic candidate Mary Peltola has a 59% chance of flipping the Alaska Senate seat from incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan>/i>
    https://x.com/benwfreeman1/status/2040950132674351348

    Being the PR person for Peltola's team would be a great gig, because you can literally just post the word "Fish." and get a million likes.

    She has it in the bag.
    https://x.com/adamscochran/status/2040954558306717829

    Fish.
    https://x.com/MaryPeltola/status/2041698823161131078

    We like sea fish, mamma

    https://youtu.be/AuO_03tYItA?si=917SHGESzQ3ptu4Z
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,159
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Labour down to 16% with Yougov

    Reform up 1%

    Reform gain is quite incredible

    https://x.com/i/status/2041757210171048042

    Reform do seem to be stabilising in a few polls now.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342
    noneoftheabove said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    It was already the case that MAGA was going to lose in November. Now it's going to be a Dem "blowout".

    If that happens then, as Steve Bannon put it, they're all going to jail.

    So why bother? I've been saying for ages There Will Be No Midterms and I stand by that. *But the constitution* - what about it? Says lots of things which Trump ignores and the cowards in Congress accept.

    There will be a crisis - international at first, then domestic. Can't allow elections to be organised by Seditious Traitors (the dem officials) so these elections are suspended.

    Crazy. Mad. Insane. All true. Then again he threatened to *nuke* Iran last night. And they're defending him...

    I suspect it will be Canada, although they may save that for 2028 and Presidential elections. Of course I will be accused of TDS, then when it happens the same people will say well no-one could foresee that happening......
    Reportedly he only pulled out of the Greenland operation because the Tech Billionaires warned him what would happen to their businesses in the general boycott of America which would follow.

    That's no longer a concern as the boycott is on thanks to the Iran debacle.

    What does Trump think happens next? The world learns its lesson and stops trading oil in € and ¥? Europe learns its lesson and orders more General Dynamics kit? The gulf learn their lesson and buy more US Treasuries?

    The *opposite* has already started happening and now accelerates rapidly.

    So there will be no restraint next time. Greenland sure. Why bother with all of Canada when you just need to liberate Alberta?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    Hopefully it's a bad enough njght that they get the message.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,181
    Taz said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Labour down to 16% with Yougov

    Reform up 1%

    Reform gain is quite incredible

    https://x.com/i/status/2041757210171048042

    Reform do seem to be stabilising in a few polls now.
    It doesn't make sense to me
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,520
    What does the Mad King do today to distract the masses from his abject failure?

    Cuba?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    Israel saying that the ceasefire doesn’t include the Lebanon .

    The Pakistani government says it does .
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,134
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Taz said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Labour down to 16% with Yougov

    Reform up 1%

    Reform gain is quite incredible

    https://x.com/i/status/2041757210171048042

    Reform do seem to be stabilising in a few polls now.
    It doesn't make sense to me
    People tend to blame the incumbents for world events, even if the opposition was more in favour of the stuff that led to the bad thing happening.

    Labour are still on course to have a terrible May, and I suspect the lagging economic indicators will cause them real trouble for the remainder of the year and into next. It’s not entirely fair, but politics often isn’t.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    kle4 said:

    Hopefully it's a bad enough njght that they get the message.

    Unless the Dems gain 20 in the Senate and 100 in the House plus massive gains in state legislatures so they can not only impeach but also start serious modernisation of the Constitution that seems a bit unlikely.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,596
    Israeli opposition laying into Netanyahu for "defeat".
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Hopefully it's a bad enough njght that they get the message.

    Unless the Dems gain 20 in the Senate and 100 in the House plus massive gains in state legislatures so they can not only impeach but also start serious modernisation of the Constitution that seems a bit unlikely.
    If we get fairish elections and the Dems do about two-thirds of that, say 12 Senate gains and 60 house, it will probably be enough to break the Republican party fealty and faith in the Trump project.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,242
    Willie Walsh, now of the IATA, on jet fuel:

    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Jet-Fuel-Shortages-May-Persist-for-Months-After-Hormuz-Reopens.html

    A note of optimism at the end:

    “So there is (refining) capacity available once we get the crude oil flowing, but it'll take a little bit of time, and with the crack spread elevated the way it is, I think that provides an incentive for refineries to increase the production of jet fuel,” Walsh said.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    Stuartinromford said:

    Assuming that this deal sticks, how sticky does the economic situation get and for how long? These "bad effects now because of something that happened in the past and is now notionally over" things tend to annoy Mr and Mrs General Public a lot.

    The Trump-Farage Fuel price hike probably lasts another couple of months if we get back to normal now? But secondary inflation, lower trade and investment makes us (a bit) poorer for at least a couple of years ahead.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Taz said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Labour down to 16% with Yougov

    Reform up 1%

    Reform gain is quite incredible

    https://x.com/i/status/2041757210171048042

    Reform do seem to be stabilising in a few polls now.
    It doesn't make sense to me
    People are desperate. And their desperation will get worse as the Trump Tax effects really start to hurt.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,159
    noneoftheabove said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Hopefully it's a bad enough njght that they get the message.

    Unless the Dems gain 20 in the Senate and 100 in the House plus massive gains in state legislatures so they can not only impeach but also start serious modernisation of the Constitution that seems a bit unlikely.
    If we get fairish elections and the Dems do about two-thirds of that, say 12 Senate gains and 60 house, it will probably be enough to break the Republican party fealty and faith in the Trump project.
    The Trump project is dead. Just a matter of time now. The mid terms will kill it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    Sandpit said:

    Russian troops surrender to Ukraine on the outside border of the city of Kupyansk.

    https://x.com/ristosuomela/status/2041461188651860208

    Not only have the Russians spent hundreds of days and thousands of lives failing to take the city, they’ve now been completely run out of town.

    Serious gains of territory for Ukraine in the past month, not noted by many with everything else that’s going on in the world.

    Ukraine is so massive that it's hard to notice even big gains given the terrible grinding nature of the conflict. If they are able to advance whilst everyone is distracted elsewhere all the better.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    noneoftheabove said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Assuming that this deal sticks, how sticky does the economic situation get and for how long? These "bad effects now because of something that happened in the past and is now notionally over" things tend to annoy Mr and Mrs General Public a lot.

    The Trump-Farage Fuel price hike probably lasts another couple of months if we get back to normal now? But secondary inflation, lower trade and investment makes us (a bit) poorer for at least a couple of years ahead.
    Bit harsh to describe this as Farage fuel price hike. Yes, the stupid sod supported Trump because he not only looks like a toad but has the brains of one, but he's not actually responsible for it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    Taz said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Hopefully it's a bad enough njght that they get the message.

    Unless the Dems gain 20 in the Senate and 100 in the House plus massive gains in state legislatures so they can not only impeach but also start serious modernisation of the Constitution that seems a bit unlikely.
    If we get fairish elections and the Dems do about two-thirds of that, say 12 Senate gains and 60 house, it will probably be enough to break the Republican party fealty and faith in the Trump project.
    The Trump project is dead. Just a matter of time now. The mid terms will kill it
    Sure, if they allow elections. Then they will go to jail (perhaps bar however many Trump can bother to pardon). So will they allow elections or not? We shall find out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    noneoftheabove said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Hopefully it's a bad enough njght that they get the message.

    Unless the Dems gain 20 in the Senate and 100 in the House plus massive gains in state legislatures so they can not only impeach but also start serious modernisation of the Constitution that seems a bit unlikely.
    If we get fairish elections and the Dems do about two-thirds of that, say 12 Senate gains and 60 house, it will probably be enough to break the Republican party fealty and faith in the Trump project.
    12 in the Senate sounds a bit optimistic?

    If it happens the legal challenges will be numerous and intense.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    ydoethur said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Assuming that this deal sticks, how sticky does the economic situation get and for how long? These "bad effects now because of something that happened in the past and is now notionally over" things tend to annoy Mr and Mrs General Public a lot.

    The Trump-Farage Fuel price hike probably lasts another couple of months if we get back to normal now? But secondary inflation, lower trade and investment makes us (a bit) poorer for at least a couple of years ahead.
    Bit harsh to describe this as Farage fuel price hike. Yes, the stupid sod supported Trump because he not only looks like a toad but has the brains of one, but he's not actually responsible for it.
    I've given up being reasonable with these nutters, play em at their own game, at least some of the time.
  • isamisam Posts: 44,230
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Taz said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Labour down to 16% with Yougov

    Reform up 1%

    Reform gain is quite incredible

    https://x.com/i/status/2041757210171048042

    Reform do seem to be stabilising in a few polls now.
    It doesn't make sense to me
    People are desperate. And their desperation will get worse as the Trump Tax effects really start to hurt.
    4% for Restore as well, which is possibly why Reform have been losing VI share
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    kle4 said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Hopefully it's a bad enough njght that they get the message.

    Unless the Dems gain 20 in the Senate and 100 in the House plus massive gains in state legislatures so they can not only impeach but also start serious modernisation of the Constitution that seems a bit unlikely.
    If we get fairish elections and the Dems do about two-thirds of that, say 12 Senate gains and 60 house, it will probably be enough to break the Republican party fealty and faith in the Trump project.
    12 in the Senate sounds a bit optimistic?

    If it happens the legal challenges will be numerous and intense.
    I'm not predicting that at all! I just think that is closer to the threshold for impeachment than 20/100.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    edited April 8
    This will likely ensure Trumps approval won’t be recovering too much if at all .

    Seeking a huge increase in military spending and at the same time cutting things like Medicare .

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crr1q4kjvn2o
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    noneoftheabove said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Assuming that this deal sticks, how sticky does the economic situation get and for how long? These "bad effects now because of something that happened in the past and is now notionally over" things tend to annoy Mr and Mrs General Public a lot.

    The Trump-Farage Fuel price hike probably lasts another couple of months if we get back to normal now? But secondary inflation, lower trade and investment makes us (a bit) poorer for at least a couple of years ahead.
    And growth was going to be anemic anyway. Yet more decline on the way, but the good news is we may vote in Greens or Reform, who will turn it all around.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,019
    noneoftheabove said:

    Taz said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Hopefully it's a bad enough njght that they get the message.

    Unless the Dems gain 20 in the Senate and 100 in the House plus massive gains in state legislatures so they can not only impeach but also start serious modernisation of the Constitution that seems a bit unlikely.
    If we get fairish elections and the Dems do about two-thirds of that, say 12 Senate gains and 60 house, it will probably be enough to break the Republican party fealty and faith in the Trump project.
    The Trump project is dead. Just a matter of time now. The mid terms will kill it
    Sure, if they allow elections. Then they will go to jail (perhaps bar however many Trump can bother to pardon). So will they allow elections or not? We shall find out.
    Your question assumes the Trump administration has the ability to cancel or fix the mid-terms. I don't think they do.

    Given their general incompetence I suspect the most they can do is sway some marginal results.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    isam said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Taz said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Labour down to 16% with Yougov

    Reform up 1%

    Reform gain is quite incredible

    https://x.com/i/status/2041757210171048042

    Reform do seem to be stabilising in a few polls now.
    It doesn't make sense to me
    People are desperate. And their desperation will get worse as the Trump Tax effects really start to hurt.
    4% for Restore as well, which is possibly why Reform have been losing VI share
    Are they actually a thing or just an online thing?
  • TresTres Posts: 3,659
    vanilla forums don't like my phone browser of choice no more, gets stuck on infinite cloudfare are you a BOT? loop
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    edited April 8
    kle4 said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Assuming that this deal sticks, how sticky does the economic situation get and for how long? These "bad effects now because of something that happened in the past and is now notionally over" things tend to annoy Mr and Mrs General Public a lot.

    The Trump-Farage Fuel price hike probably lasts another couple of months if we get back to normal now? But secondary inflation, lower trade and investment makes us (a bit) poorer for at least a couple of years ahead.
    And growth was going to be anemic anyway. Yet more decline on the way, but the good news is we may vote in Greens or Reform, who will turn it all around.
    Agreed. The total collapse rather than gradual decline will be impressive.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,159
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Taz said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Labour down to 16% with Yougov

    Reform up 1%

    Reform gain is quite incredible

    https://x.com/i/status/2041757210171048042

    Reform do seem to be stabilising in a few polls now.
    It doesn't make sense to me
    People are desperate. And their desperation will get worse as the Trump Tax effects really start to hurt.
    Yeah, and I explained to Roger yesterday why I was seriously considering Reform and why I think many in my region would do so, appreciate that makes me scum to some people here but that’s life, and what was putting me off them.

    If your life doesn’t improve with the main parties you have little to lose. Also explains Green support to me too and that votes have switched between the two.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580
    edited April 8
    Tres said:

    vanilla forums don't like my phone browser of choice no more, gets stuck on infinite cloudfare are you a BOT? loop

    I'll flag this up to Robert.

    Which browser and OS are you using?
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,159
    isam said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Taz said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Labour down to 16% with Yougov

    Reform up 1%

    Reform gain is quite incredible

    https://x.com/i/status/2041757210171048042

    Reform do seem to be stabilising in a few polls now.
    It doesn't make sense to me
    People are desperate. And their desperation will get worse as the Trump Tax effects really start to hurt.
    4% for Restore as well, which is possibly why Reform have been losing VI share
    Could Restore even field a full slate in 2029 ?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,242
    Tres said:

    vanilla forums don't like my phone browser of choice no more, gets stuck on infinite cloudfare are you a BOT? loop

    Happened last week to me, but is now fixed. Transient?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,140

    Why is there so much support for Israel in the UK?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCnKZg-bFz8
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Russian troops surrender to Ukraine on the outside border of the city of Kupyansk.

    https://x.com/ristosuomela/status/2041461188651860208

    Not only have the Russians spent hundreds of days and thousands of lives failing to take the city, they’ve now been completely run out of town.

    Serious gains of territory for Ukraine in the past month, not noted by many with everything else that’s going on in the world.

    Ukraine is so massive that it's hard to notice even big gains given the terrible grinding nature of the conflict. If they are able to advance whilst everyone is distracted elsewhere all the better.
    Meanwhile, Russian oil export capacity down 50% in the last month.

    https://x.com/realjakebroe/status/2041681333626474765

    One country won’t be reaping the benefits of higher oil prices, as they can’t get the stuff out.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    edited April 8
    kle4 said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Hopefully it's a bad enough njght that they get the message.

    Unless the Dems gain 20 in the Senate and 100 in the House plus massive gains in state legislatures so they can not only impeach but also start serious modernisation of the Constitution that seems a bit unlikely.
    If we get fairish elections and the Dems do about two-thirds of that, say 12 Senate gains and 60 house, it will probably be enough to break the Republican party fealty and faith in the Trump project.
    12 in the Senate sounds a bit optimistic?

    If it happens the legal challenges will be numerous and intense.
    More likely Trump will try to stop the House and Senate from convening. Johnson played that game before and while his days as Speaker are surely pretty much over I can imagine Trump mobilising the pardoned of 6th Jan to block access to the Capitol.

    (I agree incidentally that if the Dems have more than five gains they've had an extraordinarily good night.)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    Benpointer said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Taz said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Hopefully it's a bad enough njght that they get the message.

    Unless the Dems gain 20 in the Senate and 100 in the House plus massive gains in state legislatures so they can not only impeach but also start serious modernisation of the Constitution that seems a bit unlikely.
    If we get fairish elections and the Dems do about two-thirds of that, say 12 Senate gains and 60 house, it will probably be enough to break the Republican party fealty and faith in the Trump project.
    The Trump project is dead. Just a matter of time now. The mid terms will kill it
    Sure, if they allow elections. Then they will go to jail (perhaps bar however many Trump can bother to pardon). So will they allow elections or not? We shall find out.
    Your question assumes the Trump administration has the ability to cancel or fix the mid-terms. I don't think they do.

    Given their general incompetence I suspect the most they can do is sway some marginal results.
    Fixing is much harder than cancelling imo. Fiddling at the margins by suppressing urban and immigrant turnout is do-able but as you say won't make huge differences. Cancelling/postponing during state of emergencies is not particularly unusual in democracies.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,904
    nico67 said:

    Israel saying that the ceasefire doesn’t include the Lebanon .

    The Pakistani government says it does .

    It looks like Pakistan pretty much pooped out the US version of the ceasefire verbatim, so prsesumably Trump says it includes Lebanon. Would be heartbreaking if Don & Bibi fell out over this.


    ‘ Oh, this is unbelievable. The edit history on this tweet shows that Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif originally copied and pasted everything he was sent, including:

    "*Draft - Pakistan's PM Message on X*"

    Now, obviously, Sharif's own staff don't call him "Pakistan's PM," they would just call him prime minister. The U.S. and Israel, of course, would call him "Pakistan's PM."

    Would be funny if the fate of the world wasn't hanging in the balance.’

    https://x.com/ryangrim/status/2041622790298616241?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,159
    kle4 said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Assuming that this deal sticks, how sticky does the economic situation get and for how long? These "bad effects now because of something that happened in the past and is now notionally over" things tend to annoy Mr and Mrs General Public a lot.

    The Trump-Farage Fuel price hike probably lasts another couple of months if we get back to normal now? But secondary inflation, lower trade and investment makes us (a bit) poorer for at least a couple of years ahead.
    And growth was going to be anemic anyway. Yet more decline on the way, but the good news is we may vote in Greens or Reform, who will turn it all around.
    I may borrow some of Bart’s popcorn he had for last night for the locals in Brum.

    I see a Geeen/Pro Gaza alliance running it.

    At a local level in wealthy rural areas the Greens are just a more NIMBYish version of the Lib Dem’s

    Quite how they’d be in London, it would be different.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,019
    What an opportunity we have missed; we could be waking up to @Leon's ''BEST result for the world".
    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5509347/#Comment_5509347
  • TresTres Posts: 3,659
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tres said:

    vanilla forums don't like my phone browser of choice no more, gets stuck on infinite cloudfare are you a BOT? loop

    I'll flag this up to Robert.

    Which browser and OS are you using?
    Dolphin - some Android variant. Seems to work with Chrome ok.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,019
    noneoftheabove said:

    Benpointer said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Taz said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Hopefully it's a bad enough njght that they get the message.

    Unless the Dems gain 20 in the Senate and 100 in the House plus massive gains in state legislatures so they can not only impeach but also start serious modernisation of the Constitution that seems a bit unlikely.
    If we get fairish elections and the Dems do about two-thirds of that, say 12 Senate gains and 60 house, it will probably be enough to break the Republican party fealty and faith in the Trump project.
    The Trump project is dead. Just a matter of time now. The mid terms will kill it
    Sure, if they allow elections. Then they will go to jail (perhaps bar however many Trump can bother to pardon). So will they allow elections or not? We shall find out.
    Your question assumes the Trump administration has the ability to cancel or fix the mid-terms. I don't think they do.

    Given their general incompetence I suspect the most they can do is sway some marginal results.
    Fixing is much harder than cancelling imo. Fiddling at the margins by suppressing urban and immigrant turnout is do-able but as you say won't make huge differences. Cancelling/postponing during state of emergencies is not particularly unusual in democracies.
    It's unprecedented and simply not legally possible in the US.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    carnforth said:

    Tres said:

    vanilla forums don't like my phone browser of choice no more, gets stuck on infinite cloudfare are you a BOT? loop

    Happened last week to me, but is now fixed. Transient?
    At the moment I keep getting a demand I prove I'm a human.

    As a Time Lord this is causing me much angst. I like humans but I've no intention of being one.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    Benpointer said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Benpointer said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Taz said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Hopefully it's a bad enough njght that they get the message.

    Unless the Dems gain 20 in the Senate and 100 in the House plus massive gains in state legislatures so they can not only impeach but also start serious modernisation of the Constitution that seems a bit unlikely.
    If we get fairish elections and the Dems do about two-thirds of that, say 12 Senate gains and 60 house, it will probably be enough to break the Republican party fealty and faith in the Trump project.
    The Trump project is dead. Just a matter of time now. The mid terms will kill it
    Sure, if they allow elections. Then they will go to jail (perhaps bar however many Trump can bother to pardon). So will they allow elections or not? We shall find out.
    Your question assumes the Trump administration has the ability to cancel or fix the mid-terms. I don't think they do.

    Given their general incompetence I suspect the most they can do is sway some marginal results.
    Fixing is much harder than cancelling imo. Fiddling at the margins by suppressing urban and immigrant turnout is do-able but as you say won't make huge differences. Cancelling/postponing during state of emergencies is not particularly unusual in democracies.
    It's unprecedented and simply not legally possible in the US.
    So is wiping out entire civilisations forever, but that doesn't mean it is not an option for an unchecked mad dictator.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,435
    Sandpit said:

    Russian troops surrender to Ukraine on the outside border of the city of Kupyansk.

    https://x.com/ristosuomela/status/2041461188651860208

    Not only have the Russians spent hundreds of days and thousands of lives failing to take the city, they’ve now been completely run out of town.

    Serious gains of territory for Ukraine in the past month, not noted by many with everything else that’s going on in the world.

    Given the utter disregard of the Russian military for the lives of their troops, and the need for ordinary grunts to pay huge bribes to their officers to avoid being sent on suicide missions, surely the rational Russian soldier would find the earliest opportunity to surrender to the Ukrainians?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342
    isam said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Taz said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Labour down to 16% with Yougov

    Reform up 1%

    Reform gain is quite incredible

    https://x.com/i/status/2041757210171048042

    Reform do seem to be stabilising in a few polls now.
    It doesn't make sense to me
    People are desperate. And their desperation will get worse as the Trump Tax effects really start to hurt.
    4% for Restore as well, which is possibly why Reform have been losing VI share
    Yes, Restore Britain. For the openly racist and openly stupid. They've already topped out, but will continue to damage the fukers as the truly dense in their ranks continue to defect to the right.

    Can't wait until we get the inevitable splinter to the right of Restore. They're already pledged to deport 2m brown people. Perhaps the next splinter ups the ante to 5m and why deport them when there's jobs to be created building gallows?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,687
    edited April 8
    Morning all :)

    Perhaps to no one's great surprise, Washington and Tehran looked over the edge, into the abyss, and didn't much like what they saw.

    Should we also note the role of China in all this? The Chinese were set to be big losers from a prolonged disruption of oil supplies or rather from having to buy oil intended for other countries at higher prices.

    To save face, China gets its one of its allies to propose the ceasefire but at a point when enough people wanted and needed all this to stop.

    And so, it seems, it has - for now and it will be interesting to see if oil prices return to what they were or whether the $90 a barrel world has arrived.

    Everyone will claim victory and in a sense everybody has won something - well, not the dead Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese and others but everyone who matters -or at least has won enough to save face in the eyes of the world community and their electorates (delete as applicable).

    The longer term implications are the tough ones - the Iranian regime, hated as it is, has endured, seemingly. The hawks have missed their victory but relations between America and the rest of the world and Israel and the rest of the world and perhaps between America and Israel will not be the same.

    I suspect when the European media gets back into Iran and is shown the destruction wrought by Washington and Tel Aviv, this will accelerate the increasing estrangement of the Old World (parts of it) from the New (also parts of it).
  • RattersRatters Posts: 2,027
    Sandpit said:

    Russian troops surrender to Ukraine on the outside border of the city of Kupyansk.

    https://x.com/ristosuomela/status/2041461188651860208

    Not only have the Russians spent hundreds of days and thousands of lives failing to take the city, they’ve now been completely run out of town.

    Serious gains of territory for Ukraine in the past month, not noted by many with everything else that’s going on in the world.

    Does Trump's humiliation by Iran give Putin the cover he needs to stop his much more costly war?

    As with Trump he is in a position where the only good move is to stop playing. Drone developments have made the war unwinnable for Russia. And the longer it goes on the higher likelihood the Russian war effort / economy hits breaking point.

    I know some say Putin couldn't survive such a defeat, but equally he has such total control it wouldn't surprise me if he could spin it domestically as winning new territory and ending Ukrainian attacks.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,019
    noneoftheabove said:

    Benpointer said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Benpointer said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Taz said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Hopefully it's a bad enough njght that they get the message.

    Unless the Dems gain 20 in the Senate and 100 in the House plus massive gains in state legislatures so they can not only impeach but also start serious modernisation of the Constitution that seems a bit unlikely.
    If we get fairish elections and the Dems do about two-thirds of that, say 12 Senate gains and 60 house, it will probably be enough to break the Republican party fealty and faith in the Trump project.
    The Trump project is dead. Just a matter of time now. The mid terms will kill it
    Sure, if they allow elections. Then they will go to jail (perhaps bar however many Trump can bother to pardon). So will they allow elections or not? We shall find out.
    Your question assumes the Trump administration has the ability to cancel or fix the mid-terms. I don't think they do.

    Given their general incompetence I suspect the most they can do is sway some marginal results.
    Fixing is much harder than cancelling imo. Fiddling at the margins by suppressing urban and immigrant turnout is do-able but as you say won't make huge differences. Cancelling/postponing during state of emergencies is not particularly unusual in democracies.
    It's unprecedented and simply not legally possible in the US.
    So is wiping out entire civilisations forever, but that doesn't mean it is not an option for an unchecked mad dictator.
    Of course it's possible, I just think that possibility is extremely remote, e.g. <0.1%
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342
    noneoftheabove said:

    Benpointer said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Taz said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Hopefully it's a bad enough njght that they get the message.

    Unless the Dems gain 20 in the Senate and 100 in the House plus massive gains in state legislatures so they can not only impeach but also start serious modernisation of the Constitution that seems a bit unlikely.
    If we get fairish elections and the Dems do about two-thirds of that, say 12 Senate gains and 60 house, it will probably be enough to break the Republican party fealty and faith in the Trump project.
    The Trump project is dead. Just a matter of time now. The mid terms will kill it
    Sure, if they allow elections. Then they will go to jail (perhaps bar however many Trump can bother to pardon). So will they allow elections or not? We shall find out.
    Your question assumes the Trump administration has the ability to cancel or fix the mid-terms. I don't think they do.

    Given their general incompetence I suspect the most they can do is sway some marginal results.
    Fixing is much harder than cancelling imo. Fiddling at the margins by suppressing urban and immigrant turnout is do-able but as you say won't make huge differences. Cancelling/postponing during state of emergencies is not particularly unusual in democracies.
    Exactly. Can't hold elections in these Dem states / cities. The people organising them are Seditious Traitors who already stole one election and now they want to steal this one.

    Let me predict the pivot point. Trump will Federalise the election process. Cue protests. Trump deploys the SA, protests get violent. No possible way to hold these elections until order is restored and the traitors arrested. Fox News hacks demand the dems stop blocking the election and allow new Election Czar Pam Bondi to run them from Washington.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tres said:

    vanilla forums don't like my phone browser of choice no more, gets stuck on infinite cloudfare are you a BOT? loop

    I'll flag this up to Robert.

    Which browser and OS are you using?
    I got one this morning, first time ever, on vf.pb.com

    iPad OS 26.4 beta, with one of those not-physical and not-public networks enabled.

    The same has happened on a number of other websites in recent days, it’s a general Cloudflare thing rather than anything specifically Vanilla-related.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 581
    numbertwelve said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Taz said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Labour down to 16% with Yougov

    Reform up 1%

    Reform gain is quite incredible

    https://x.com/i/status/2041757210171048042

    Reform do seem to be stabilising in a few polls now.
    It doesn't make sense to me
    People tend to blame the incumbents for world events, even if the opposition was more in favour of the stuff that led to the bad thing happening.

    Labour are still on course to have a terrible May, and I suspect the lagging economic indicators will cause them real trouble for the remainder of the year and into next. It’s not entirely fair, but politics often isn’t.
    People really don't care all that much about foreign affairs - on of several ways in which the PB bubble is often misleading.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,659
    Trump shouldn't have been elected in the first place, as prison would make him ineligible and he should be removed now on grounds of incapacity.

    This would actually be upholding democracy.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,961
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tres said:

    vanilla forums don't like my phone browser of choice no more, gets stuck on infinite cloudfare are you a BOT? loop

    I'll flag this up to Robert.

    Which browser and OS are you using?
    I had that this morning
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    Ratters said:

    Sandpit said:

    Russian troops surrender to Ukraine on the outside border of the city of Kupyansk.

    https://x.com/ristosuomela/status/2041461188651860208

    Not only have the Russians spent hundreds of days and thousands of lives failing to take the city, they’ve now been completely run out of town.

    Serious gains of territory for Ukraine in the past month, not noted by many with everything else that’s going on in the world.

    Does Trump's humiliation by Iran give Putin the cover he needs to stop his much more costly war?

    As with Trump he is in a position where the only good move is to stop playing. Drone developments have made the war unwinnable for Russia. And the longer it goes on the higher likelihood the Russian war effort / economy hits breaking point.

    I know some say Putin couldn't survive such a defeat, but equally he has such total control it wouldn't surprise me if he could spin it domestically as winning new territory and ending Ukrainian attacks.
    Putin must be very annoyed with the Iranians demanding tolls for ships passing through their waters. The Ukrainian government must be looking at the pipelines crossing their land and doing some sums.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,242
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tres said:

    vanilla forums don't like my phone browser of choice no more, gets stuck on infinite cloudfare are you a BOT? loop

    I'll flag this up to Robert.

    Which browser and OS are you using?
    I got one this morning, first time ever, on vf.pb.com

    iPad OS 26.4 beta, with one of those not-physical and not-public networks enabled.

    The same has happened on a number of other websites in recent days, it’s a general Cloudflare thing rather than anything specifically Vanilla-related.
    You may be right. I remember now I got in a loop trying to access archive.is last week too.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 61,139
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tres said:

    vanilla forums don't like my phone browser of choice no more, gets stuck on infinite cloudfare are you a BOT? loop

    I'll flag this up to Robert.

    Which browser and OS are you using?
    I got one this morning, first time ever, on vf.pb.com

    iPad OS 26.4 beta, with one of those not-physical and not-public networks enabled.

    The same has happened on a number of other websites in recent days, it’s a general Cloudflare thing rather than anything specifically Vanilla-related.
    Likewise, it can be quite annoying sometimes.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    FF43 said:

    Trump shouldn't have been elected in the first place, as prison would make him ineligible and he should be removed now on grounds of incapacity.

    This would actually be upholding democracy.

    Not necessarily. Eugene V Debs ran for office while in prison.

    But I do agree that the judge in New York did rather shirk his duty by not locking him up.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 581
    Taz said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Taz said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Labour down to 16% with Yougov

    Reform up 1%

    Reform gain is quite incredible

    https://x.com/i/status/2041757210171048042

    Reform do seem to be stabilising in a few polls now.
    It doesn't make sense to me
    People are desperate. And their desperation will get worse as the Trump Tax effects really start to hurt.
    Yeah, and I explained to Roger yesterday why I was seriously considering Reform and why I think many in my region would do so, appreciate that makes me scum to some people here but that’s life, and what was putting me off them.

    If your life doesn’t improve with the main parties you have little to lose. Also explains Green support to me too and that votes have switched between the two.
    To be considered "scum" by the likes of Roger is something of a badge of honour. And anyway the site lives and dies by it's willingness to hear a wide spectrum of views.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Russian troops surrender to Ukraine on the outside border of the city of Kupyansk.

    https://x.com/ristosuomela/status/2041461188651860208

    Not only have the Russians spent hundreds of days and thousands of lives failing to take the city, they’ve now been completely run out of town.

    Serious gains of territory for Ukraine in the past month, not noted by many with everything else that’s going on in the world.

    Given the utter disregard of the Russian military for the lives of their troops, and the need for ordinary grunts to pay huge bribes to their officers to avoid being sent on suicide missions, surely the rational Russian soldier would find the earliest opportunity to surrender to the Ukrainians?
    Yup! Don’t know about this particular surrender, but when the NorKs and various African troops started turning up on the Russian side, the Ukranians bombed their positions with leaflets explaining that their PoW camps were warm and safe, with pictures attached and contact details. They even have a website and hotline called ‘I Want To Live’, which co-ordinates Russian soldiers wanting to wave the white flag.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Want_to_Live_(hotline)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,687
    Benpointer said:

    What an opportunity we have missed; we could be waking up to @Leon's ''BEST result for the world".

    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5509347/#Comment_5509347
    Now, now, let's just be happy Armageddon has been postponed for a couple of weeks and the Grand National can take place.

    Perhaps even old Leon Lobanuke can offer a selection...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,659
    Sandpit said:

    Russian troops surrender to Ukraine on the outside border of the city of Kupyansk.

    https://x.com/ristosuomela/status/2041461188651860208

    Not only have the Russians spent hundreds of days and thousands of lives failing to take the city, they’ve now been completely run out of town.

    Serious gains of territory for Ukraine in the past month, not noted by many with everything else that’s going on in the world.

    Could this be a German troops at the end of WW1 scenario? Soldiers surrender en masse when they think their side is losing.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    stodge said:

    Benpointer said:

    What an opportunity we have missed; we could be waking up to @Leon's ''BEST result for the world".

    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5509347/#Comment_5509347
    Now, now, let's just be happy Armageddon has been postponed for a couple of weeks and the Grand National can take place.

    Perhaps even old Leon Lobanuke can offer a selection...
    Actually the timing was perhaps inevitable, it is US Masters week, Trump will want to watch that without interruption for sure!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    Benpointer said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Benpointer said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Benpointer said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Taz said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Hopefully it's a bad enough njght that they get the message.

    Unless the Dems gain 20 in the Senate and 100 in the House plus massive gains in state legislatures so they can not only impeach but also start serious modernisation of the Constitution that seems a bit unlikely.
    If we get fairish elections and the Dems do about two-thirds of that, say 12 Senate gains and 60 house, it will probably be enough to break the Republican party fealty and faith in the Trump project.
    The Trump project is dead. Just a matter of time now. The mid terms will kill it
    Sure, if they allow elections. Then they will go to jail (perhaps bar however many Trump can bother to pardon). So will they allow elections or not? We shall find out.
    Your question assumes the Trump administration has the ability to cancel or fix the mid-terms. I don't think they do.

    Given their general incompetence I suspect the most they can do is sway some marginal results.
    Fixing is much harder than cancelling imo. Fiddling at the margins by suppressing urban and immigrant turnout is do-able but as you say won't make huge differences. Cancelling/postponing during state of emergencies is not particularly unusual in democracies.
    It's unprecedented and simply not legally possible in the US.
    So is wiping out entire civilisations forever, but that doesn't mean it is not an option for an unchecked mad dictator.
    Of course it's possible, I just think that possibility is extremely remote, e.g. 0.1%
    Why do you think they have been actively firing senior military personnel including 20 generals and admirals?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Russian troops surrender to Ukraine on the outside border of the city of Kupyansk.

    https://x.com/ristosuomela/status/2041461188651860208

    Not only have the Russians spent hundreds of days and thousands of lives failing to take the city, they’ve now been completely run out of town.

    Serious gains of territory for Ukraine in the past month, not noted by many with everything else that’s going on in the world.

    Could this be a German troops at the end of WW1 scenario? Soldiers surrender en masse when they think their side is losing.
    There appears to be some doubt about this report, so we should suspend judgement.

    However it does look like Russia is facing major problems.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    noneoftheabove said:

    stodge said:

    Benpointer said:

    What an opportunity we have missed; we could be waking up to @Leon's ''BEST result for the world".

    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5509347/#Comment_5509347
    Now, now, let's just be happy Armageddon has been postponed for a couple of weeks and the Grand National can take place.

    Perhaps even old Leon Lobanuke can offer a selection...
    Actually the timing was perhaps inevitable, it is US Masters week, Trump will want to watch that without interruption for sure!
    He's not been invited to play in it?

    Disgraceful.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    Pedro Sánchez welcomes the ceasefire deal but notes: "This momentary relief cannot make us forget the chaos, the destruction, and the lives lost. The Government of Spain will not applaud those who set the world on fire just because they show up with a bucket."

    A very impressive chap. Staying in power for 3 terms, 8 years ongoing in modern western democracies is a rare achievement.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,520
    Sandpit said:

    Russian troops surrender to Ukraine on the outside border of the city of Kupyansk.

    https://x.com/ristosuomela/status/2041461188651860208

    Not only have the Russians spent hundreds of days and thousands of lives failing to take the city, they’ve now been completely run out of town.

    Serious gains of territory for Ukraine in the past month, not noted by many with everything else that’s going on in the world.

    There are hints that that one if fake.

    (I can't tell - Grok says so.)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,928
    Fears of a presidential power grab rise.... in Zimbabwe:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg54zy5dq1yo
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    ydoethur said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    stodge said:

    Benpointer said:

    What an opportunity we have missed; we could be waking up to @Leon's ''BEST result for the world".

    Leon said:

    In all honesty, I think the BEST result for the world now is if Trump nukes the fuck out of Iran, they surrender immediately, and the Straits are reopened in a a few days, and Iran is prevented from wreaking more destruction of MENA infra

    There are no more good options. There are no more bad options. There are only varying degrees of disaster, and the above MIGHT be the least disastrous, if you're not one of the poor people who get melted

    I say this not as a joke, and not to provoke, but as a candid assessment of where we are. It is not good

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5509347/#Comment_5509347
    Now, now, let's just be happy Armageddon has been postponed for a couple of weeks and the Grand National can take place.

    Perhaps even old Leon Lobanuke can offer a selection...
    Actually the timing was perhaps inevitable, it is US Masters week, Trump will want to watch that without interruption for sure!
    He's not been invited to play in it?

    Disgraceful.
    https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/president-trump-gets-bad-news-170723129.html
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,140
    edited April 8
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Perhaps to no one's great surprise, Washington and Tehran looked over the edge, into the abyss, and didn't much like what they saw.

    Should we also note the role of China in all this? The Chinese were set to be big losers from a prolonged disruption of oil supplies or rather from having to buy oil intended for other countries at higher prices.

    To save face, China gets its one of its allies to propose the ceasefire but at a point when enough people wanted and needed all this to stop.

    And so, it seems, it has - for now and it will be interesting to see if oil prices return to what they were or whether the $90 a barrel world has arrived.

    Everyone will claim victory and in a sense everybody has won something - well, not the dead Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese and others but everyone who matters -or at least has won enough to save face in the eyes of the world community and their electorates (delete as applicable).

    The longer term implications are the tough ones - the Iranian regime, hated as it is, has endured, seemingly. The hawks have missed their victory but relations between America and the rest of the world and Israel and the rest of the world and perhaps between America and Israel will not be the same.

    I suspect when the European media gets back into Iran and is shown the destruction wrought by Washington and Tel Aviv, this will accelerate the increasing estrangement of the Old World (parts of it) from the New (also parts of it).

    Israel will never be looked at with affection again. I posted this link earlier and it's quite sad the reputational damage that Israel has suffered and from which it will never recover.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCnKZg-bFz8
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,342
    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    Pedro Sánchez welcomes the ceasefire deal but notes: "This momentary relief cannot make us forget the chaos, the destruction, and the lives lost. The Government of Spain will not applaud those who set the world on fire just because they show up with a bucket."

    Brutal
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,659
    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Russian troops surrender to Ukraine on the outside border of the city of Kupyansk.

    https://x.com/ristosuomela/status/2041461188651860208

    Not only have the Russians spent hundreds of days and thousands of lives failing to take the city, they’ve now been completely run out of town.

    Serious gains of territory for Ukraine in the past month, not noted by many with everything else that’s going on in the world.

    Could this be a German troops at the end of WW1 scenario? Soldiers surrender en masse when they think their side is losing.
    There appears to be some doubt about this report, so we should suspend judgement.

    However it does look like Russia is facing major problems.
    I suspect that too unfortunately, but we can hope.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,883
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Labour down to 16% with Yougov

    Reform up 1%

    Reform gain is quite incredible

    https://x.com/i/status/2041757210171048042

    Reform up despite 4% for Restore looks significant.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 61,689
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Perhaps to no one's great surprise, Washington and Tehran looked over the edge, into the abyss, and didn't much like what they saw.

    Should we also note the role of China in all this? The Chinese were set to be big losers from a prolonged disruption of oil supplies or rather from having to buy oil intended for other countries at higher prices.

    To save face, China gets its one of its allies to propose the ceasefire but at a point when enough people wanted and needed all this to stop.

    And so, it seems, it has - for now and it will be interesting to see if oil prices return to what they were or whether the $90 a barrel world has arrived.

    Everyone will claim victory and in a sense everybody has won something - well, not the dead Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese and others but everyone who matters -or at least has won enough to save face in the eyes of the world community and their electorates (delete as applicable).

    The longer term implications are the tough ones - the Iranian regime, hated as it is, has endured, seemingly. The hawks have missed their victory but relations between America and the rest of the world and Israel and the rest of the world and perhaps between America and Israel will not be the same.

    I suspect when the European media gets back into Iran and is shown the destruction wrought by Washington and Tel Aviv, this will accelerate the increasing estrangement of the Old World (parts of it) from the New (also parts of it).

    The missing relationship from your list, is that between Iran and the GCC States which surround it.

    These States were not part of any war, until Iran started randomly bombing them on 28th Feb, and are determined to prevent this situation recurring in future.

    Until very recently, Qatar was an Iranian ally, and the source of significant funds that ended up funding various Iranian proxies around the region, much to the disdain of their fellow GCC members. The World Cup very nearly didn’t happen, and forced the Qaratis to compromise. Now Iran is very much the enemy of everyone else in the region. Now Qatar has to rebuild significant O&G facilities.

    My suspicion is that, if Iran tries to toll the Straight, the GCC will use military force to avoid the tolls.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    Pedro Sánchez welcomes the ceasefire deal but notes: "This momentary relief cannot make us forget the chaos, the destruction, and the lives lost. The Government of Spain will not applaud those who set the world on fire just because they show up with a bucket."

    Brutal
    He could have made it more brutal by saying, 'including a bucketful of warm piss in Budapest.'
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,140
    Will Hegseth survive the day? Any odds?

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    RochdalePioneers said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Benpointer said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Taz said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Hopefully it's a bad enough njght that they get the message.

    Unless the Dems gain 20 in the Senate and 100 in the House plus massive gains in state legislatures so they can not only impeach but also start serious modernisation of the Constitution that seems a bit unlikely.
    If we get fairish elections and the Dems do about two-thirds of that, say 12 Senate gains and 60 house, it will probably be enough to break the Republican party fealty and faith in the Trump project.
    The Trump project is dead. Just a matter of time now. The mid terms will kill it
    Sure, if they allow elections. Then they will go to jail (perhaps bar however many Trump can bother to pardon). So will they allow elections or not? We shall find out.
    Your question assumes the Trump administration has the ability to cancel or fix the mid-terms. I don't think they do.

    Given their general incompetence I suspect the most they can do is sway some marginal results.
    Fixing is much harder than cancelling imo. Fiddling at the margins by suppressing urban and immigrant turnout is do-able but as you say won't make huge differences. Cancelling/postponing during state of emergencies is not particularly unusual in democracies.
    Exactly. Can't hold elections in these Dem states / cities. The people organising them are Seditious Traitors who already stole one election and now they want to steal this one.

    Let me predict the pivot point. Trump will Federalise the election process. Cue protests. Trump deploys the SA, protests get violent. No possible way to hold these elections until order is restored and the traitors arrested. Fox News hacks demand the dems stop blocking the election and allow new Election Czar Pam Bondi to run them from Washington.
    Only Congress can act in that regard . Unless they change the filibuster rules then the SAVE act isn’t getting passed.

    Trump can spew out as many election related Executive Orders as he likes . The courts will just continue to strike them down .

  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 581
    Sandpit said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Perhaps to no one's great surprise, Washington and Tehran looked over the edge, into the abyss, and didn't much like what they saw.

    Should we also note the role of China in all this? The Chinese were set to be big losers from a prolonged disruption of oil supplies or rather from having to buy oil intended for other countries at higher prices.

    To save face, China gets its one of its allies to propose the ceasefire but at a point when enough people wanted and needed all this to stop.

    And so, it seems, it has - for now and it will be interesting to see if oil prices return to what they were or whether the $90 a barrel world has arrived.

    Everyone will claim victory and in a sense everybody has won something - well, not the dead Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese and others but everyone who matters -or at least has won enough to save face in the eyes of the world community and their electorates (delete as applicable).

    The longer term implications are the tough ones - the Iranian regime, hated as it is, has endured, seemingly. The hawks have missed their victory but relations between America and the rest of the world and Israel and the rest of the world and perhaps between America and Israel will not be the same.

    I suspect when the European media gets back into Iran and is shown the destruction wrought by Washington and Tel Aviv, this will accelerate the increasing estrangement of the Old World (parts of it) from the New (also parts of it).

    The missing relationship from your list, is that between Iran and the GCC States which surround it.

    These States were not part of any war, until Iran started randomly bombing them on 28th Feb, and are determined to prevent this situation recurring in future.

    Until very recently, Qatar was an Iranian ally, and the source of significant funds that ended up funding various Iranian proxies around the region, much to the disdain of their fellow GCC members. The World Cup very nearly didn’t happen, and forced the Qaratis to compromise. Now Iran is very much the enemy of everyone else in the region. Now Qatar has to rebuild significant O&G facilities.

    My suspicion is that, if Iran tries to toll the Straight, the GCC will use military force to avoid the tolls.
    It's high time that means we're found to avoid using the Straits.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,961
    Roger said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Perhaps to no one's great surprise, Washington and Tehran looked over the edge, into the abyss, and didn't much like what they saw.

    Should we also note the role of China in all this? The Chinese were set to be big losers from a prolonged disruption of oil supplies or rather from having to buy oil intended for other countries at higher prices.

    To save face, China gets its one of its allies to propose the ceasefire but at a point when enough people wanted and needed all this to stop.

    And so, it seems, it has - for now and it will be interesting to see if oil prices return to what they were or whether the $90 a barrel world has arrived.

    Everyone will claim victory and in a sense everybody has won something - well, not the dead Iranian, Israeli, Lebanese and others but everyone who matters -or at least has won enough to save face in the eyes of the world community and their electorates (delete as applicable).

    The longer term implications are the tough ones - the Iranian regime, hated as it is, has endured, seemingly. The hawks have missed their victory but relations between America and the rest of the world and Israel and the rest of the world and perhaps between America and Israel will not be the same.

    I suspect when the European media gets back into Iran and is shown the destruction wrought by Washington and Tel Aviv, this will accelerate the increasing estrangement of the Old World (parts of it) from the New (also parts of it).

    Israel will never be looked at with affection again. I posted this link earlier and it's quite sad the reputational damage that Israel has suffered and from which it will never recover.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCnKZg-bFz8
    If you said It Roger it has to be wrong.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,671
    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    Israel saying that the ceasefire doesn’t include the Lebanon .

    The Pakistani government says it does .

    Israel will do all it can to perpetuate this illegal conflict even though they’re grinding to a halt in Lebanon
    This is possibly more important.

    • 60% of American adults now have an unfavorable view of Israel 🇮🇱.

    • That’s up from 53% last year and 42% in 2022.

    • In both political parties, a majority of adults under age 50 view Israel negatively. (84% of Democrats, 57% of Republicans)
    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/2041692065424404671

    Without the support of the US, Israel's military will face severe constraints.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,874
    williamglenn said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Labour down to 16% with Yougov

    Reform up 1%

    Reform gain is quite incredible

    https://x.com/i/status/2041757210171048042

    Reform up despite 4% for Restore looks significant.
    Figures for the leading five;

    RFM 24% (+1)
    CON 19% (=)
    LAB 16% (-2)
    GRN 16% (-3)
    LDEM 13% (+1)

    Interesting that the Greens are down as well, for all I know that poll-to-poll changes are generally bobbins. But you have to wonder how many of that 4% could pick out Restore in an identity parade.
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