You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
For those advocating fuel rationing can you explain how it would work ?
It is not the same as rationing for food where everyone needs approximately the same amount per person and per week.
With fuel some people might need 20L per month while others need 100L per week.
Then there is the issue of those who use fuel for work purposes as well as for personal use.
Back in 2000, it was done with things like a £20 limit and attended service, with long queues to get in. I was a 1,000 miles/week IT support guy at the time and spent hours in queues.
IIRC ‘key workers’ (public sector) could jump queues and limits. It was intended for nurses on call, fire trucks etc, but ended up being abused by desk-based civil servants and their families. WFH was mostly not practical at the time.
Albanese swerves on rationing but encourages a switch to public transport and conserving fuel use. Warns economic impact to last many months
So Starmer has called for rationing unilaterally. What a c***!
The situation for each country will be different.
Rationing is not an obviously stupid policy, given what has happened.
We don’t have the import “pipeline” data to tell when the constraints will hit us. But they will.
The biggest problem with announcing rationing is the panic buying that will hit. Needs coordination with the oil companies, the various retailers and the police (public order)
Among other things, expect the justice system to go to “riot mode” - charging offences to the maximum sustainable by the evidence.
➡️ REF UK 30% (+3) 🌳 CON 21% (+1) 🌹 LAB 19% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 12% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-3) ❓OTH 4% (nc) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,003 | 28-30/3| Change w 25/03
That 3% LibDem to Reform shift is interesting!
Tories on 20%+ will help in May. As will a 2% lead over Labour - Labour led them by 5% in 2022...
On those MiC numbers Tory vote is still down 9% on the 30% they got under Boris even in 2022 so plenty of Tory councillors will still be losing their seats to Reform and the LDs sadly. Even if Labour who were on 35% NEV in 2022 lose even more councillors to Reform and the Greens
Your reminder that $4 a US gallon is around 80p a litre, and that still includes a load of tax in most places.
So how much is the UK government going to cut tax on petrol to avert a crisis?
The farmers and the hauliers blockaded Grangemouth and Fawley when the prices hit 80p a litre in 2000.
Which is equivalent to 155p today, so we’re still short of that despite Hormuz closing.
I appreciate the need to keep costs down for essential services, but it does seem a bit mad to me to suppress prices at a time when there is a significant risk of an actual shortage. The market clearing at a very high price is a much better outcome compared with literally running out.
This is a bit like the North Sea - an interesting debate about taxation for the medium and long term, but ultimately irrelevant or, as in this case, has the potential to make things worse in short term.
Worth noting that as fuel duty is fixed, the government has effectively cut taxes on fuel already as a proportion.
Farmers and hauliers aren't running on unleaded. Diesel at 170.9 this morning...
Don't farmers use red (untaxed) diesel?
Only for agricultural use, not haulage, ie. on farms for farm work is ok, but if you were hauling straw bales, and using the main road to get to destination, that would be white diesel (most of that will be done with a commercial lorry anyway).
There are exemptions for roadside hedge cutting and snow clearing on main roads to allow tractors to run on red
For those advocating fuel rationing can you explain how it would work ?
It is not the same as rationing for food where everyone needs approximately the same amount per person and per week.
With fuel some people might need 20L per month while others need 100L per week.
Then there is the issue of those who use fuel for work purposes as well as for personal use.
Back in 2000, it was done with things like a £20 limit and attended service, with long queues to get in. I was a 1,000 miles/week IT support guy at the time and spent hours in queues.
In 1973 my dad was sent tokens from the Ministry of Transport with his car registration number on them. Once you had used your token for the week that was it. Fortunately Ted was a political god, so they were never used.
➡️ REF UK 30% (+3) 🌳 CON 21% (+1) 🌹 LAB 19% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 12% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-3) ❓OTH 4% (nc) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,003 | 28-30/3| Change w 25/03
That 3% LibDem to Reform shift is interesting!
Tories on 20%+ will help in May. As will a 2% lead over Labour - Labour led them by 5% in 2022...
First 'significant' move to Reform in some time in a poll. We will see if its replicated elsewhere. The leadership figures were essentially unmoved from last week
If the Tories can keep within 5% or so in the NEV on May 7th then it shouldnt be 'too' bad a night for them
Your reminder that $4 a US gallon is around 80p a litre, and that still includes a load of tax in most places.
So how much is the UK government going to cut tax on petrol to avert a crisis?
The farmers and the hauliers blockaded Grangemouth and Fawley when the prices hit 80p a litre in 2000.
At least they won't be blockading Grangemouth this time round. *result*
You might have inferred that I am not of the Nationalist persuasion. But when I see what has been done to our petro-chemical industry so some clots in north London can feel better about themselves it is really hard not to be upset. See also regional electricity pricing which is preventing Scotland from having a competitive advantage with AI data centres. Bah.
I agree with your first part, but I am interested in exploring TUD's views on the Grangemouth closure - I would have thought his politics would make him quite comfortable with it.
I'm all for keeping what's left of Scotland's oil reserves in the ground until an elected Scottish government is able to decide how to utilise it. However closing down a refinery (which Labour PROMISED not to do) that specialised in aviation fuel and then subsidise Sir Jim's processing plant in Belgium not to mention infrastructure around a new stadium for his crappy football team seems less than optimum, even from a Unionist pov. Still, one more component of a future independent Scotland removed, so every cloud has a Unionist lining.
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
I doubt watching American bombers leaving British airports to do Hegseths bombing has done Labour much good.. All the other European countries could find the word for 'NO' but not Starmer. I've had it with Labour.
Albanese swerves on rationing but encourages a switch to public transport and conserving fuel use. Warns economic impact to last many months
So Starmer has called for rationing unilaterally. What a c***!
He hasnt called for rationing. Yet
@wooliedyed called it on here earlier. That is good enough for me. Rationing it is and as I can't vote Tory, Nigel gets my vote!
I didnt 'call it' at all. I saiid if the Aussie press rumours were right and Albanese went for it then its likely Starmers conference would be in the same vein. Albanese didnt, so there's no reason to think Starmer now will
Albanese swerves on rationing but encourages a switch to public transport and conserving fuel use. Warns economic impact to last many months
So Starmer has called for rationing unilaterally. What a c***!
The situation for each country will be different.
Rationing is not an obviously stupid policy, given what has happened.
We don’t have the import “pipeline” data to tell when the constraints will hit us. But they will.
The biggest problem with announcing rationing is the panic buying that will hit. Needs coordination with the oil companies, the various retailers and the police (public order)
Among other things, expect the justice system to go to “riot mode” - charging offences to the maximum sustainable by the evidence.
The government uses / wastes too much fuel itself for rationing to be politically sustainable.
Using taxis to take SEND kids to school or asylum seekers to the doctors
➡️ REF UK 30% (+3) 🌳 CON 21% (+1) 🌹 LAB 19% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 12% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-3) ❓OTH 4% (nc) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,003 | 28-30/3| Change w 25/03
That 3% LibDem to Reform shift is interesting!
Tories on 20%+ will help in May. As will a 2% lead over Labour - Labour led them by 5% in 2022...
On those MiC numbers Tory vote is still down 9% on the 30% they got under Boris even in 2022 so plenty of Tory councillors will still be losing their seats to Reform and the LDs sadly. Even if Labour who were on 35% NEV in 2022 lose even more councillors to Reform and the Greens
➡️ REF UK 30% (+3) 🌳 CON 21% (+1) 🌹 LAB 19% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 12% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-3) ❓OTH 4% (nc) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,003 | 28-30/3| Change w 25/03
That 3% LibDem to Reform shift is interesting!
Tories on 20%+ will help in May. As will a 2% lead over Labour - Labour led them by 5% in 2022...
I suspect the poll is reverting to the more "usual" numbers from this pollster and the last Reform and LD numbers were outliers - that'swhy looking at each poll in isolation is absurd and even looking at each poll from a pollster is also strange.
The trend is or isn't your friend and for God's sake, no more ludicrous "averages".
This is also a Westminster VI poll - how it will translate into local election numbers next month is far from clear.
Iran has pretty much no air defences left, with the Warthogs (A10s) and Apaches (helicopter gunships) having being in the air over Iran and the Straight for a couple of weeks now.
What they do still have is attack drones (Shaheds) and a few missiles left. They were throwing cruise missiles at the UAE yesterday, which were all shot down, but it’s indicative of low supplies of the ballistics. Almost every known defence industry factory and fixed launch site in Iran has been bombed, so it’s now a case of whatever they have stored and mobile or hidden launch facilities, plus whatever Russia and China can sneak in.
There’s probably a good chance the Americans can keep the Strait of Hormuz open tomorrow, but they don’t want to do it on their own.
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
➡️ REF UK 30% (+3) 🌳 CON 21% (+1) 🌹 LAB 19% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 12% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-3) ❓OTH 4% (nc) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,003 | 28-30/3| Change w 25/03
That 3% LibDem to Reform shift is interesting!
Tories on 20%+ will help in May. As will a 2% lead over Labour - Labour led them by 5% in 2022...
On those MiC numbers Tory vote is still down 9% on the 30% they got under Boris even in 2022 so plenty of Tory councillors will still be losing their seats to Reform and the LDs sadly. Even if Labour who were on 35% NEV in 2022 lose even more councillors to Reform and the Greens
The LibDems are only up 1% against the Tories on 2022.
Against Reform, it will depend on tactical voting.
The Tories main threat is Reform in May more than the LDs yes though a few seats in Hampshire and Sussex for example the Tories held against the LDs in 2021 may now fall.
Without anti Reform tactical voting Tory councillors face a massacre by Reform on the MiC numbers certainly, as do Labour councillors in Leave voting areas
In case anyone has missed him this is 76 year old Senator Malhuret telling President Trump what we in the UK could only dream that Starmer had the eloquence to match
Iran has pretty much no air defences left, with the Warthogs (A10s) and Apaches (helicopter gunships) having being in the air over Iran and the Straight for a couple of weeks now.
What they do still have is attack drones (Shaheds) and a few missiles left. They were throwing cruise missiles at the UAE yesterday, which were all shot down, but it’s indicative of low supplies of the ballistics. Almost every known defence industry factory and fixed launch site in Iran has been bombed, so it’s now a case of whatever they have stored and mobile or hidden launch facilities, plus whatever Russia and China can sneak in.
There’s probably a good chance the Americans can keep the Strait of Hormuz open tomorrow, but they don’t want to do it on their own.
Hey, America closed it on its own (well, along with Israel).
As they say in Pottery Barn "You break it, you own it".
It really is the action of a toddler, with his smashed toy saying "Mummy fix it!"
In case anyone has missed him this is 76 year old Senator Malhuret telling President Trump what we in the UK could only dream that Starmer had the eloquence to match
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Surely more likely Green.
Mornin' everyone!
10mph speed limits ahoy?
One can dream.
In all seriousness, we really are in a bind here. At short notice very little fuel consumption can be reduced without significant damage to the economy. And a large proportion of that discretionary travel is incurred by those rich enough to absorb the cost - I won’t be cancelling my Easter weekend, and I won’t be doing 40 on the way up.
You can mock as much as you want but the government doesn’t have any other options but to suggest stuff like this. If only we’d made the transition to EVs more quickly.
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Plaid Green government and SNP Green in Scotland
Your worse nightmare is just a few week away
Nope, as I pointed out to you last night the SNP are forecast their worst result since 2007 on the new Holyrood Survation with the SNP projected to lose 8 MSPs.
In Wales as I also pointed out earlier the new Beaufort poll has Plaid and the Greens combined well short of a Senedd majority, only with Labour support could Plaid form a government in Wales.
Your reminder that $4 a US gallon is around 80p a litre, and that still includes a load of tax in most places.
So how much is the UK government going to cut tax on petrol to avert a crisis?
The farmers and the hauliers blockaded Grangemouth and Fawley when the prices hit 80p a litre in 2000.
At least they won't be blockading Grangemouth this time round. *result*
You might have inferred that I am not of the Nationalist persuasion. But when I see what has been done to our petro-chemical industry so some clots in north London can feel better about themselves it is really hard not to be upset. See also regional electricity pricing which is preventing Scotland from having a competitive advantage with AI data centres. Bah.
I agree with your first part, but I am interested in exploring TUD's views on the Grangemouth closure - I would have thought his politics would make him quite comfortable with it.
I'm all for keeping what's left of Scotland's oil reserves in the ground until an elected Scottish government is able to decide how to utilise it. However closing down a refinery (which Labour PROMISED not to do) that specialised in aviation fuel and then subsidise Sir Jim's processing plant in Belgium not to mention infrastructure around a new stadium for his crappy football team seems less than optimum, even from a Unionist pov. Still, one more component of a future independent Scotland removed, so every cloud has a Unionist lining.
Ok. I knew that whatever the answer would be it would be through a prism of nationalism - I'm still not entirely clear on the politics of it for you. I am positive I've heard you speak warmly of the Greens, but possibly that's just because they are indy-friendly too.
I'm glad to share a desire to re-open Grangemouth even if our reasons are entirely different.
Iran has pretty much no air defences left, with the Warthogs (A10s) and Apaches (helicopter gunships) having being in the air over Iran and the Straight for a couple of weeks now.
What they do still have is attack drones (Shaheds) and a few missiles left. They were throwing cruise missiles at the UAE yesterday, which were all shot down, but it’s indicative of low supplies of the ballistics. Almost every known defence industry factory and fixed launch site in Iran has been bombed, so it’s now a case of whatever they have stored and mobile or hidden launch facilities, plus whatever Russia and China can sneak in.
There’s probably a good chance the Americans can keep the Strait of Hormuz open tomorrow, but they don’t want to do it on their own.
Hey, America closed it on its own (well, along with Israel).
As they say in Pottery Barn "You break it, you own it".
It really is the action of a toddler, with his smashed toy saying "Mummy fix it!"
Not even that. It's more "I hate you, you're not my Mummy, fix it".
Albanese swerves on rationing but encourages a switch to public transport and conserving fuel use. Warns economic impact to last many months
So Starmer has called for rationing unilaterally. What a c***!
The situation for each country will be different.
Rationing is not an obviously stupid policy, given what has happened.
We don’t have the import “pipeline” data to tell when the constraints will hit us. But they will.
The biggest problem with announcing rationing is the panic buying that will hit. Needs coordination with the oil companies, the various retailers and the police (public order)
Among other things, expect the justice system to go to “riot mode” - charging offences to the maximum sustainable by the evidence.
The government uses / wastes too much fuel itself for rationing to be politically sustainable.
Using taxis to take SEND kids to school or asylum seekers to the doctors
Bollocks
1) that is a fart in a thunderstorm of national fuel usage. 2) many taxi drivers are now fully electric.
➡️ REF UK 30% (+3) 🌳 CON 21% (+1) 🌹 LAB 19% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 12% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-3) ❓OTH 4% (nc) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,003 | 28-30/3| Change w 25/03
That 3% LibDem to Reform shift is interesting!
Tories on 20%+ will help in May. As will a 2% lead over Labour - Labour led them by 5% in 2022...
On those MiC numbers Tory vote is still down 9% on the 30% they got under Boris even in 2022 so plenty of Tory councillors will still be losing their seats to Reform and the LDs sadly. Even if Labour who were on 35% NEV in 2022 lose even more councillors to Reform and the Greens
The LibDems are only up 1% against the Tories on 2022.
Against Reform, it will depend on tactical voting.
The Tories main threat is Reform in May more than the LDs yes though a few seats in Hampshire and Sussex for example the Tories held against the LDs in 2021 may now fall.
Without anti Reform tactical voting Tory councillors face a massacre by Reform on the MiC numbers certainly, as do Labour councillors in Leave voting areas
Labour face a massacre in all areas, from Reform, from Greens, from Plaid and even from the Tories in any straight Labour-Tory fights.
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Surely more likely Green.
Mornin' everyone!
10mph speed limits ahoy?
One can dream.
In all seriousness, we really are in a bind here. At short notice very little fuel consumption can be reduced without significant damage to the economy. And a large proportion of that discretionary travel is incurred by those rich enough to absorb the cost - I won’t be cancelling my Easter weekend, and I won’t be doing 40 on the way up.
You can mock as much as you want but the government doesn’t have any other options but to suggest stuff like this. If only we’d made the transition to EVs more quickly.
My primary response will be to do a big shop for those foods my household needs and which might be disrupted or become unavailable. And perhaps some more spirits for the spirit burner.
In case anyone has missed him this is 76 year old Senator Malhuret telling President Trump what we in the UK could only dream that Starmer had the eloquence to match
Do we have any information yet on how many candidates each party is fielding at the May locals?
Wondering how extensive the Reform coverage is going to be.
The declaration of persons nominated is supposed to be released at 4pm on April 10th in Newham and I imagine that's the aim for most councils so that will be an interesting day.
I'm wondering whether there will be as many Conservative candidates as there usually are given the party's decline since 2022.
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Plaid Green government and SNP Green in Scotland
Your worse nightmare is just a few week away
Nope, as I pointed out to you last night the SNP are forecast their worst result since 2007 on the new Holyrood Survation with the SNP projected to lose 8 MSPs.
In Wales as I also pointed out earlier the new Beaufort poll has Plaid and the Greens combined well short of a Senedd majority, only with Labour support could Plaid form a government in Wales.
You just cannot accept the idea independence majority goverments are a very real possibility in Scotland and Wales
Do we have any information yet on how many candidates each party is fielding at the May locals?
Wondering how extensive the Reform coverage is going to be.
Nominations close Thursday.
Though in "straw in the wind" news, one of the Conservative Action Team here in Romford has been unpersoned with the ruthlessness of that photo of Stalin and Yezhov.
Albanese swerves on rationing but encourages a switch to public transport and conserving fuel use. Warns economic impact to last many months
So Starmer has called for rationing unilaterally. What a c***!
The situation for each country will be different.
Rationing is not an obviously stupid policy, given what has happened.
We don’t have the import “pipeline” data to tell when the constraints will hit us. But they will.
The biggest problem with announcing rationing is the panic buying that will hit. Needs coordination with the oil companies, the various retailers and the police (public order)
Among other things, expect the justice system to go to “riot mode” - charging offences to the maximum sustainable by the evidence.
The government uses / wastes too much fuel itself for rationing to be politically sustainable.
Using taxis to take SEND kids to school or asylum seekers to the doctors
Bollocks
1) that is a fart in a thunderstorm of national fuel usage. 2) many taxi drivers are now fully electric.
In among all the Daily Mail propaganda though, there is a valid point. What is private and non-essential? For example, do parents have an exemption to get children to school? Or only for exams (that season starts in earnest on May 9th but there are art, drama and language internal exams beforehand)? And how?
We should remember school buses in many areas have died a death so that's not a straightforward option.
Do I have an exemption for in person teaching, some of which is sixty miles from where I live? It would be exceptionally difficult to move that on line for various reasons, even though the majority of my teaching contact time is from home these days. What about teachers in private schools if exemptions are allowed? How long and how much?
These are going to be awkward questions if we run really short.
➡️ REF UK 30% (+3) 🌳 CON 21% (+1) 🌹 LAB 19% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 12% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-3) ❓OTH 4% (nc) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,003 | 28-30/3| Change w 25/03
That 3% LibDem to Reform shift is interesting!
Tories on 20%+ will help in May. As will a 2% lead over Labour - Labour led them by 5% in 2022...
On those MiC numbers Tory vote is still down 9% on the 30% they got under Boris even in 2022 so plenty of Tory councillors will still be losing their seats to Reform and the LDs sadly. Even if Labour who were on 35% NEV in 2022 lose even more councillors to Reform and the Greens
The LibDems are only up 1% against the Tories on 2022.
Against Reform, it will depend on tactical voting.
The Tories main threat is Reform in May more than the LDs yes though a few seats in Hampshire and Sussex for example the Tories held against the LDs in 2021 may now fall.
Without anti Reform tactical voting Tory councillors face a massacre by Reform on the MiC numbers certainly, as do Labour councillors in Leave voting areas
Labour face a massacre in all areas, from Reform, from Greens, from Plaid and even from the Tories in any straight Labour-Tory fights.
The only places I could really see significant Tory gains from Labour are in West and North and Central London eg Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster and Barnet ie areas Reform will be weak. Otherwise with Reform now leading UK polls straight Labour v Tory fights will be few and far between, mainly confined to posh urban areas which would not vote for Farage's party of oiks but where the LDs don't have much presence either and which are too economically wealthy and centre right to vote Green
Do we have any information yet on how many candidates each party is fielding at the May locals?
Wondering how extensive the Reform coverage is going to be.
Reform have a full slate out in Hillingdon they announced yesterday, but they are struggling in Croydon with resignations etc according to 'inside Croydon' - includimg not apparently yet having anyone for their key target in New Addington. Tories would be delighted with an easier run at taking Croydon outright if so
Your reminder that $4 a US gallon is around 80p a litre, and that still includes a load of tax in most places.
So how much is the UK government going to cut tax on petrol to avert a crisis?
The farmers and the hauliers blockaded Grangemouth and Fawley when the prices hit 80p a litre in 2000.
At least they won't be blockading Grangemouth this time round. *result*
You might have inferred that I am not of the Nationalist persuasion. But when I see what has been done to our petro-chemical industry so some clots in north London can feel better about themselves it is really hard not to be upset. See also regional electricity pricing which is preventing Scotland from having a competitive advantage with AI data centres. Bah.
I agree with your first part, but I am interested in exploring TUD's views on the Grangemouth closure - I would have thought his politics would make him quite comfortable with it.
I'm all for keeping what's left of Scotland's oil reserves in the ground until an elected Scottish government is able to decide how to utilise it. However closing down a refinery (which Labour PROMISED not to do) that specialised in aviation fuel and then subsidise Sir Jim's processing plant in Belgium not to mention infrastructure around a new stadium for his crappy football team seems less than optimum, even from a Unionist pov. Still, one more component of a future independent Scotland removed, so every cloud has a Unionist lining.
Ok. I knew that whatever the answer would be it would be through a prism of nationalism - I'm still not entirely clear on the politics of it for you. I am positive I've heard you speak warmly of the Greens, but possibly that's just because they are indy-friendly too.
I'm glad to share a desire to re-open Grangemouth even if our reasons are entirely different.
Refreshing to hear a view entirely unencumbered by the prism of British nationalism.
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Plaid Green government and SNP Green in Scotland
Your worse nightmare is just a few week away
Nope, as I pointed out to you last night the SNP are forecast their worst result since 2007 on the new Holyrood Survation with the SNP projected to lose 8 MSPs.
In Wales as I also pointed out earlier the new Beaufort poll has Plaid and the Greens combined well short of a Senedd majority, only with Labour support could Plaid form a government in Wales.
You just cannot accept the idea independence majority goverments are a very real possibility in Scotland and Wales
They are not. SNP and the Greens combined are forecast to be down on 2021 on the new Survation poll and so Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 even if Swinney requests it.
In the Senedd Plaid are likely to need Labour to govern and Labour would block independence referendum talk in Wales but in any case Plaid unlike the SNP have not even included pushing for independence in their manifesto, at least not for a first time Plaid government
Albanese swerves on rationing but encourages a switch to public transport and conserving fuel use. Warns economic impact to last many months
So Starmer has called for rationing unilaterally. What a c***!
The situation for each country will be different.
Rationing is not an obviously stupid policy, given what has happened.
We don’t have the import “pipeline” data to tell when the constraints will hit us. But they will.
The biggest problem with announcing rationing is the panic buying that will hit. Needs coordination with the oil companies, the various retailers and the police (public order)
Among other things, expect the justice system to go to “riot mode” - charging offences to the maximum sustainable by the evidence.
The government uses / wastes too much fuel itself for rationing to be politically sustainable.
Using taxis to take SEND kids to school or asylum seekers to the doctors
Bollocks
1) that is a fart in a thunderstorm of national fuel usage. 2) many taxi drivers are now fully electric.
In among all the Daily Mail propaganda though, there is a valid point. What is private and non-essential? For example, do parents have an exemption to get children to school? Or only for exams (that season starts in earnest on May 9th but there are art, drama and language internal exams beforehand)? And how?
We should remember school buses in many areas have died a death so that's not a straightforward option.
Do I have an exemption for in person teaching, some of which is sixty miles from where I live? It would be exceptionally difficult to move that on line for various reasons, even though the majority of my teaching contact time is from home these days. What about teachers in private schools if exemptions are allowed? How long and how much?
These are going to be awkward questions if we run really short.
Doesn't that take us back to Eagles's Worst/Best Case Scenario, that there will be such a shortage of fuel that it barely matters what allocation mechanism we use?
Albanese swerves on rationing but encourages a switch to public transport and conserving fuel use. Warns economic impact to last many months
So Starmer has called for rationing unilaterally. What a c***!
The situation for each country will be different.
Rationing is not an obviously stupid policy, given what has happened.
We don’t have the import “pipeline” data to tell when the constraints will hit us. But they will.
The biggest problem with announcing rationing is the panic buying that will hit. Needs coordination with the oil companies, the various retailers and the police (public order)
Among other things, expect the justice system to go to “riot mode” - charging offences to the maximum sustainable by the evidence.
The government uses / wastes too much fuel itself for rationing to be politically sustainable.
Using taxis to take SEND kids to school or asylum seekers to the doctors
Bollocks
1) that is a fart in a thunderstorm of national fuel usage. 2) many taxi drivers are now fully electric.
Every individual's fuel usage is a fart in the thunderstorm of national fuel usage.
And every person's fuel usage is somewhere between important and vital to themselves.
Restrict Peter's usage but not that of Paul and Peter is not going to be happy.
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Plaid Green government and SNP Green in Scotland
Your worse nightmare is just a few week away
Nope, as I pointed out to you last night the SNP are forecast their worst result since 2007 on the new Holyrood Survation with the SNP projected to lose 8 MSPs.
In Wales as I also pointed out earlier the new Beaufort poll has Plaid and the Greens combined well short of a Senedd majority, only with Labour support could Plaid form a government in Wales.
You just cannot accept the idea independence majority goverments are a very real possibility in Scotland and Wales
They are not. SNP and the Greens combined are forecast to be down on 2021 on the new Survation poll and so Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 even if Swinney requests it.
In the Senedd Plaid are likely to need Labour to govern and Labour would block independence referendum talk in Wales but in any case Plaid unlike the SNP have not even included pushing for independence in their manifesto, at least not for a first time Plaid government
You constantly quote polls so read the one I posted that debunks your claim about Wales
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Surely more likely Green.
Mornin' everyone!
10mph speed limits ahoy?
One can dream.
In all seriousness, we really are in a bind here. At short notice very little fuel consumption can be reduced without significant damage to the economy. And a large proportion of that discretionary travel is incurred by those rich enough to absorb the cost - I won’t be cancelling my Easter weekend, and I won’t be doing 40 on the way up.
You can mock as much as you want but the government doesn’t have any other options but to suggest stuff like this. If only we’d made the transition to EVs more quickly.
Once again, I'm confused.
On the one hand, we seem to be, as usual, talking ourselves into a fuel panic and crisis.
From what I can see, we now get very little oil from the Gulf - most of ours comes from the US (I wonder if Trump knows how much leverage that gives him potentially), Norway and Libya according to Statista.
We are nowhere near as dependent on Gulf supplies as China and other countries.
So, while accepting we will pay more for our petrol and especially diesel in the coming weeks and months, is there really any threat of a shortage or are we going to panic ourselves into shortages?
As for the usual suspects calling for the temporary scrapping of fuel duty, I'd again mention the £25 billion the Government gets from said duty each year and set that against the debt interest payments we have to make following the insanity of previous administrations. I'm fine with a temporary relaxation but perhaps we should have a temporary rise in other taxes to offset - I suspect that won't be popular.
Do we have any information yet on how many candidates each party is fielding at the May locals?
Wondering how extensive the Reform coverage is going to be.
The declaration of persons nominated is supposed to be released at 4pm on April 10th in Newham and I imagine that's the aim for most councils so that will be an interesting day.
I'm wondering whether there will be as many Conservative candidates as there usually are given the party's decline since 2022.
Yes, Birmigham is also April 10th, a day we are awaiting with great anticipation.
Albanese swerves on rationing but encourages a switch to public transport and conserving fuel use. Warns economic impact to last many months
So Starmer has called for rationing unilaterally. What a c***!
He hasnt called for rationing. Yet
@wooliedyed called it on here earlier. That is good enough for me. Rationing it is and as I can't vote Tory, Nigel gets my vote!
I didnt 'call it' at all. I saiid if the Aussie press rumours were right and Albanese went for it then its likely Starmers conference would be in the same vein. Albanese didnt, so there's no reason to think Starmer now will
On Today a government minister was asked by Webb if the public should be careful about energy usage - what with there being a war on and all. In answering he took great pains to say no, people should carry on as normal. I found this odd, since of course people should be careful, it's commonsense, and then it struck me the reason for it. They know any other answer translates immediately to "Starmer looks at rationing!" reporting in the usual places.
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Plaid Green government and SNP Green in Scotland
Your worse nightmare is just a few week away
Nope, as I pointed out to you last night the SNP are forecast their worst result since 2007 on the new Holyrood Survation with the SNP projected to lose 8 MSPs.
In Wales as I also pointed out earlier the new Beaufort poll has Plaid and the Greens combined well short of a Senedd majority, only with Labour support could Plaid form a government in Wales.
You just cannot accept the idea independence majority goverments are a very real possibility in Scotland and Wales
They are not. SNP and the Greens combined are forecast to be down on 2021 on the new Survation poll and so Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 even if Swinney requests it.
In the Senedd Plaid are likely to need Labour to govern and Labour would block independence referendum talk in Wales but in any case Plaid unlike the SNP have not even included pushing for independence in their manifesto, at least not for a first time Plaid government
You constantly quote polls so read the one I posted that debunks your claim about Wales
As I said and you ignored, Plaid have NOT included independence in their manifesto for May's Senedd elections, so even if Plaid won 100% of Senedd seats, which they won't, they could not push for a Welsh independence referendum as they would have no mandate for one
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Plaid Green government and SNP Green in Scotland
Your worse nightmare is just a few week away
Nope, as I pointed out to you last night the SNP are forecast their worst result since 2007 on the new Holyrood Survation with the SNP projected to lose 8 MSPs.
In Wales as I also pointed out earlier the new Beaufort poll has Plaid and the Greens combined well short of a Senedd majority, only with Labour support could Plaid form a government in Wales.
You just cannot accept the idea independence majority goverments are a very real possibility in Scotland and Wales
They are not. SNP and the Greens combined are forecast to be down on 2021 on the new Survation poll and so Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 even if Swinney requests it.
In the Senedd Plaid are likely to need Labour to govern and Labour would block independence referendum talk in Wales but in any case Plaid unlike the SNP have not even included pushing for independence in their manifesto, at least not for a first time Plaid government
You constantly quote polls so read the one I posted that debunks your claim about Wales
As I said and you ignored, Plaid have NOT included independence in their manifesto, so even if Plaid won 100% of Senedd seats, which they won't, they could not push for a Welsh independence referendum as they would have no mandate for one
Your reminder that $4 a US gallon is around 80p a litre, and that still includes a load of tax in most places.
So how much is the UK government going to cut tax on petrol to avert a crisis?
The farmers and the hauliers blockaded Grangemouth and Fawley when the prices hit 80p a litre in 2000.
At least they won't be blockading Grangemouth this time round. *result*
You might have inferred that I am not of the Nationalist persuasion. But when I see what has been done to our petro-chemical industry so some clots in north London can feel better about themselves it is really hard not to be upset. See also regional electricity pricing which is preventing Scotland from having a competitive advantage with AI data centres. Bah.
I agree with your first part, but I am interested in exploring TUD's views on the Grangemouth closure - I would have thought his politics would make him quite comfortable with it.
I'm all for keeping what's left of Scotland's oil reserves in the ground until an elected Scottish government is able to decide how to utilise it. However closing down a refinery (which Labour PROMISED not to do) that specialised in aviation fuel and then subsidise Sir Jim's processing plant in Belgium not to mention infrastructure around a new stadium for his crappy football team seems less than optimum, even from a Unionist pov. Still, one more component of a future independent Scotland removed, so every cloud has a Unionist lining.
Ok. I knew that whatever the answer would be it would be through a prism of nationalism - I'm still not entirely clear on the politics of it for you. I am positive I've heard you speak warmly of the Greens, but possibly that's just because they are indy-friendly too.
I'm glad to share a desire to re-open Grangemouth even if our reasons are entirely different.
Refreshing to hear a view entirely unencumbered by the prism of British nationalism.
Britain exists as an independent country now. Things that are in the British national interest are in all our interests now. That's a fairly simple motivation, and I don't pretend for a second that it doesn't inform my views - it informs them all. Nationalism on behalf of a desired future entity is a much more complex phenomenon.
Iran has pretty much no air defences left, with the Warthogs (A10s) and Apaches (helicopter gunships) having being in the air over Iran and the Straight for a couple of weeks now.
What they do still have is attack drones (Shaheds) and a few missiles left. They were throwing cruise missiles at the UAE yesterday, which were all shot down, but it’s indicative of low supplies of the ballistics. Almost every known defence industry factory and fixed launch site in Iran has been bombed, so it’s now a case of whatever they have stored and mobile or hidden launch facilities, plus whatever Russia and China can sneak in.
There’s probably a good chance the Americans can keep the Strait of Hormuz open tomorrow, but they don’t want to do it on their own.
The Houthis proved that it's dangerously easy to keep a shipping lane closed with a bunch of drones, and the US found that you couldn't stop drones being launched with air power alone.
And there were European warships involved trying to protect shipping then, and it still couldn't be done, and a deal had to be done with the Houthis instead.
If the US could reopen the Strait of Hormuz then they would do it. It would leave Iran defeated and impotent. They haven't because they can't.
Albanese swerves on rationing but encourages a switch to public transport and conserving fuel use. Warns economic impact to last many months
So Starmer has called for rationing unilaterally. What a c***!
The situation for each country will be different.
Rationing is not an obviously stupid policy, given what has happened.
We don’t have the import “pipeline” data to tell when the constraints will hit us. But they will.
The biggest problem with announcing rationing is the panic buying that will hit. Needs coordination with the oil companies, the various retailers and the police (public order)
Among other things, expect the justice system to go to “riot mode” - charging offences to the maximum sustainable by the evidence.
The government uses / wastes too much fuel itself for rationing to be politically sustainable.
Using taxis to take SEND kids to school or asylum seekers to the doctors
Bollocks
1) that is a fart in a thunderstorm of national fuel usage. 2) many taxi drivers are now fully electric.
In among all the Daily Mail propaganda though, there is a valid point. What is private and non-essential? For example, do parents have an exemption to get children to school? Or only for exams (that season starts in earnest on May 9th but there are art, drama and language internal exams beforehand)? And how?
We should remember school buses in many areas have died a death so that's not a straightforward option.
Do I have an exemption for in person teaching, some of which is sixty miles from where I live? It would be exceptionally difficult to move that on line for various reasons, even though the majority of my teaching contact time is from home these days. What about teachers in private schools if exemptions are allowed? How long and how much?
These are going to be awkward questions if we run really short.
I suspect panicked civil servants in the DfE are running in circles as we speak. Trying to find the files on what they did in COVID.
I’ve found an upside - if the government fucks ip the A levels like last time, they will force the universities to take the students. Which means a 25% increase in medic graduates…
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Plaid Green government and SNP Green in Scotland
Your worse nightmare is just a few week away
Nope, as I pointed out to you last night the SNP are forecast their worst result since 2007 on the new Holyrood Survation with the SNP projected to lose 8 MSPs.
In Wales as I also pointed out earlier the new Beaufort poll has Plaid and the Greens combined well short of a Senedd majority, only with Labour support could Plaid form a government in Wales.
You just cannot accept the idea independence majority goverments are a very real possibility in Scotland and Wales
They are not. SNP and the Greens combined are forecast to be down on 2021 on the new Survation poll and so Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 even if Swinney requests it.
In the Senedd Plaid are likely to need Labour to govern and Labour would block independence referendum talk in Wales but in any case Plaid unlike the SNP have not even included pushing for independence in their manifesto, at least not for a first time Plaid government
You constantly quote polls so read the one I posted that debunks your claim about Wales
As I said and you ignored, Plaid have NOT included independence in their manifesto, so even if Plaid won 100% of Senedd seats, which they won't, they could not push for a Welsh independence referendum as they would have no mandate for one
You are so naive
No you are the naive one, if you do not have a manifesto pledge for something you have no mandate for it, even if you win the election
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Surely more likely Green.
Mornin' everyone!
10mph speed limits ahoy?
One can dream.
In all seriousness, we really are in a bind here. At short notice very little fuel consumption can be reduced without significant damage to the economy. And a large proportion of that discretionary travel is incurred by those rich enough to absorb the cost - I won’t be cancelling my Easter weekend, and I won’t be doing 40 on the way up.
You can mock as much as you want but the government doesn’t have any other options but to suggest stuff like this. If only we’d made the transition to EVs more quickly.
Once again, I'm confused.
On the one hand, we seem to be, as usual, talking ourselves into a fuel panic and crisis.
From what I can see, we now get very little oil from the Gulf - most of ours comes from the US (I wonder if Trump knows how much leverage that gives him potentially), Norway and Libya according to Statista.
We are nowhere near as dependent on Gulf supplies as China and other countries.
So, while accepting we will pay more for our petrol and especially diesel in the coming weeks and months, is there really any threat of a shortage or are we going to panic ourselves into shortages?
As for the usual suspects calling for the temporary scrapping of fuel duty, I'd again mention the £25 billion the Government gets from said duty each year and set that against the debt interest payments we have to make following the insanity of previous administrations. I'm fine with a temporary relaxation but perhaps we should have a temporary rise in other taxes to offset - I suspect that won't be popular.
If they wanted to make a modest difference without too many problems they could of course put VAT on the price of fuel not the price of fuel+duty. That would cut prices quite significantly and go some way to reducing the volatility.
But I suspect Reeves will be glad to bank the excess.
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Plaid Green government and SNP Green in Scotland
Your worse nightmare is just a few week away
Nope, as I pointed out to you last night the SNP are forecast their worst result since 2007 on the new Holyrood Survation with the SNP projected to lose 8 MSPs.
In Wales as I also pointed out earlier the new Beaufort poll has Plaid and the Greens combined well short of a Senedd majority, only with Labour support could Plaid form a government in Wales.
You just cannot accept the idea independence majority goverments are a very real possibility in Scotland and Wales
They are not. SNP and the Greens combined are forecast to be down on 2021 on the new Survation poll and so Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 even if Swinney requests it.
In the Senedd Plaid are likely to need Labour to govern and Labour would block independence referendum talk in Wales but in any case Plaid unlike the SNP have not even included pushing for independence in their manifesto, at least not for a first time Plaid government
You constantly quote polls so read the one I posted that debunks your claim about Wales
As I said and you ignored, Plaid have NOT included independence in their manifesto, so even if Plaid won 100% of Senedd seats, which they won't, they could not push for a Welsh independence referendum as they would have no mandate for one
You are so naive
No you are the naive one, if you do not have a manifesto pledge for something you have no mandate for it, even if you win the election
And you believe that
I doubt Independence would win in Wales but if Plaid Green do win a majority it will not go away because you want it to
Albanese swerves on rationing but encourages a switch to public transport and conserving fuel use. Warns economic impact to last many months
So Starmer has called for rationing unilaterally. What a c***!
The situation for each country will be different.
Rationing is not an obviously stupid policy, given what has happened.
We don’t have the import “pipeline” data to tell when the constraints will hit us. But they will.
The biggest problem with announcing rationing is the panic buying that will hit. Needs coordination with the oil companies, the various retailers and the police (public order)
Among other things, expect the justice system to go to “riot mode” - charging offences to the maximum sustainable by the evidence.
The government uses / wastes too much fuel itself for rationing to be politically sustainable.
Using taxis to take SEND kids to school or asylum seekers to the doctors
Bollocks
1) that is a fart in a thunderstorm of national fuel usage. 2) many taxi drivers are now fully electric.
In among all the Daily Mail propaganda though, there is a valid point. What is private and non-essential? For example, do parents have an exemption to get children to school? Or only for exams (that season starts in earnest on May 9th but there are art, drama and language internal exams beforehand)? And how?
We should remember school buses in many areas have died a death so that's not a straightforward option.
Do I have an exemption for in person teaching, some of which is sixty miles from where I live? It would be exceptionally difficult to move that on line for various reasons, even though the majority of my teaching contact time is from home these days. What about teachers in private schools if exemptions are allowed? How long and how much?
These are going to be awkward questions if we run really short.
I suspect panicked civil servants in the DfE are running in circles as we speak. (1) Trying to find the files on what they did in COVID.
(2) I’ve found an upside - if the government fucks ip the A levels like last time, they will force the universities to take the students. Which means a 25% increase in medic graduates…
No, wait.
Who have no training places in the NHS. Darn it!
(1) They hit the booze. (And it showed.) That may be why there are no files. HTH Susan, as I'm sure your recollections are a bit hazy.
(2) That's one reason why I can't see exams being cancelled. But then it was impossible to cancel them in 2020, and they did it anyway even though there were I think ways they could have gone ahead, and failed to prepare properly for exams being cancelled in 2021 even though it was obvious from October they wouldn't be happening because of the disruption to learning caused by individual quarantines. So let's not assume sanity will be involved.
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Surely more likely Green.
Mornin' everyone!
10mph speed limits ahoy?
One can dream.
In all seriousness, we really are in a bind here. At short notice very little fuel consumption can be reduced without significant damage to the economy. And a large proportion of that discretionary travel is incurred by those rich enough to absorb the cost - I won’t be cancelling my Easter weekend, and I won’t be doing 40 on the way up.
You can mock as much as you want but the government doesn’t have any other options but to suggest stuff like this. If only we’d made the transition to EVs more quickly.
Once again, I'm confused.
On the one hand, we seem to be, as usual, talking ourselves into a fuel panic and crisis.
From what I can see, we now get very little oil from the Gulf - most of ours comes from the US (I wonder if Trump knows how much leverage that gives him potentially), Norway and Libya according to Statista.
We are nowhere near as dependent on Gulf supplies as China and other countries.
So, while accepting we will pay more for our petrol and especially diesel in the coming weeks and months, is there really any threat of a shortage or are we going to panic ourselves into shortages?
As for the usual suspects calling for the temporary scrapping of fuel duty, I'd again mention the £25 billion the Government gets from said duty each year and set that against the debt interest payments we have to make following the insanity of previous administrations. I'm fine with a temporary relaxation but perhaps we should have a temporary rise in other taxes to offset - I suspect that won't be popular.
I heard that a lot of tankers heading to Europe from the US rerouted to head to Asia, because they were offered higher prices to do so.
I don't think we can assume that all of the 20% cut in supply is going to fall on countries that used to get their oil from the Gulf. Those countries will be looking to buy from the US now too.
Remember those stories about PPE shipments being seized on runways at the start of the pandemic? There's going to be all sorts of competition to secure oil supplies.
➡️ REF UK 30% (+3) 🌳 CON 21% (+1) 🌹 LAB 19% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 12% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-3) ❓OTH 4% (nc) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,003 | 28-30/3| Change w 25/03
That 3% LibDem to Reform shift is interesting!
Tories on 20%+ will help in May. As will a 2% lead over Labour - Labour led them by 5% in 2022...
On those MiC numbers Tory vote is still down 9% on the 30% they got under Boris even in 2022 so plenty of Tory councillors will still be losing their seats to Reform and the LDs sadly. Even if Labour who were on 35% NEV in 2022 lose even more councillors to Reform and the Greens
The LibDems are only up 1% against the Tories on 2022.
Against Reform, it will depend on tactical voting.
The Tories main threat is Reform in May more than the LDs yes though a few seats in Hampshire and Sussex for example the Tories held against the LDs in 2021 may now fall.
Without anti Reform tactical voting Tory councillors face a massacre by Reform on the MiC numbers certainly, as do Labour councillors in Leave voting areas
Labour face a massacre in all areas, from Reform, from Greens, from Plaid and even from the Tories in any straight Labour-Tory fights.
The only places I could really see significant Tory gains from Labour are in West and North and Central London eg Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster and Barnet ie areas Reform will be weak. Otherwise with Reform now leading UK polls straight Labour v Tory fights will be few and far between, mainly confined to posh urban areas which would not vote for Farage's party of oiks but where the LDs don't have much presence either and which are too economically wealthy and centre right to vote Green
There will be some gains though which shoukd ameliorate some of the carnage from Reform. Rural Bradford, Trafford, Kirkless etc for example all have areas where Con should be gaining direct from Labour. No majority council gains likely outside London of course
I haven't been following this story, but is that the case that she is an alleged Chinese spy, and now she's been doing honey-trap stuff with a Trident submariner?
And the Government thinks this country is our ally and we need to be 'working in close consultation' with them.
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Plaid Green government and SNP Green in Scotland
Your worse nightmare is just a few week away
Nope, as I pointed out to you last night the SNP are forecast their worst result since 2007 on the new Holyrood Survation with the SNP projected to lose 8 MSPs.
In Wales as I also pointed out earlier the new Beaufort poll has Plaid and the Greens combined well short of a Senedd majority, only with Labour support could Plaid form a government in Wales.
You just cannot accept the idea independence majority goverments are a very real possibility in Scotland and Wales
They are not. SNP and the Greens combined are forecast to be down on 2021 on the new Survation poll and so Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 even if Swinney requests it.
In the Senedd Plaid are likely to need Labour to govern and Labour would block independence referendum talk in Wales but in any case Plaid unlike the SNP have not even included pushing for independence in their manifesto, at least not for a first time Plaid government
You constantly quote polls so read the one I posted that debunks your claim about Wales
As I said and you ignored, Plaid have NOT included independence in their manifesto, so even if Plaid won 100% of Senedd seats, which they won't, they could not push for a Welsh independence referendum as they would have no mandate for one
You are so naive
No you are the naive one, if you do not have a manifesto pledge for something you have no mandate for it, even if you win the election
And you believe that
I doubt Independence would win in Wales but if Plaid Green do win a majority it will not go away because you want it to
It is an iron law of politics and of course Starmer would rightly tell Plaid to sod off and rip to pieces any independence referendum request if they had the audacity to send one given they would have zero mandate for one as it was not even in their manifesto.
Many Welsh Unionists who lent their vote to Plaid only to remove Labour would also go back to Labour if Plaid pushed independence, the only reason Plaid have a chance of winning most seats for the first time since the Welsh Assembly was founded 27 years ago is they have dumped pushing independence this Senedd election
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Plaid Green government and SNP Green in Scotland
Your worse nightmare is just a few week away
Nope, as I pointed out to you last night the SNP are forecast their worst result since 2007 on the new Holyrood Survation with the SNP projected to lose 8 MSPs.
In Wales as I also pointed out earlier the new Beaufort poll has Plaid and the Greens combined well short of a Senedd majority, only with Labour support could Plaid form a government in Wales.
You just cannot accept the idea independence majority goverments are a very real possibility in Scotland and Wales
They are not. SNP and the Greens combined are forecast to be down on 2021 on the new Survation poll and so Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 even if Swinney requests it.
In the Senedd Plaid are likely to need Labour to govern and Labour would block independence referendum talk in Wales but in any case Plaid unlike the SNP have not even included pushing for independence in their manifesto, at least not for a first time Plaid government
You constantly quote polls so read the one I posted that debunks your claim about Wales
As I said and you ignored, Plaid have NOT included independence in their manifesto, so even if Plaid won 100% of Senedd seats, which they won't, they could not push for a Welsh independence referendum as they would have no mandate for one
You are so naive
No you are the naive one, if you do not have a manifesto pledge for something you have no mandate for it, even if you win the election
And you believe that
I doubt Independence would win in Wales but if Plaid Green do win a majority it will not go away because you want it to
I don't see that leading for a campaign for independence in the short term, not least because there are divisions within Plaid on the subject. Rather I suspect the Salmond approach would be taken of trying to differentiate Wales from England and sabotage relations with Westminster at every term so it becomes a viable option in the longer term (indeed, I think the referendum happened somewhat before Salmond wanted it - I suspect his goal was for around 2020-25).
The snag is, Wales needs a hell of a lot more work than Scotland to be even considering independence as an option. And I see nothing from any party that they're ready to do that.
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Surely more likely Green.
Mornin' everyone!
10mph speed limits ahoy?
One can dream.
In all seriousness, we really are in a bind here. At short notice very little fuel consumption can be reduced without significant damage to the economy. And a large proportion of that discretionary travel is incurred by those rich enough to absorb the cost - I won’t be cancelling my Easter weekend, and I won’t be doing 40 on the way up.
You can mock as much as you want but the government doesn’t have any other options but to suggest stuff like this. If only we’d made the transition to EVs more quickly.
Once again, I'm confused.
On the one hand, we seem to be, as usual, talking ourselves into a fuel panic and crisis.
From what I can see, we now get very little oil from the Gulf - most of ours comes from the US (I wonder if Trump knows how much leverage that gives him potentially), Norway and Libya according to Statista.
We are nowhere near as dependent on Gulf supplies as China and other countries.
So, while accepting we will pay more for our petrol and especially diesel in the coming weeks and months, is there really any threat of a shortage or are we going to panic ourselves into shortages?
As for the usual suspects calling for the temporary scrapping of fuel duty, I'd again mention the £25 billion the Government gets from said duty each year and set that against the debt interest payments we have to make following the insanity of previous administrations. I'm fine with a temporary relaxation but perhaps we should have a temporary rise in other taxes to offset - I suspect that won't be popular.
If they wanted to make a modest difference without too many problems they could of course put VAT on the price of fuel not the price of fuel+duty. That would cut prices quite significantly and go some way to reducing the volatility.
But I suspect Reeves will be glad to bank the excess.
The above is assuming that shortages won’t hit the UK because our main suppliers are not hit.
At this moment there is a bidding war for those supplies.
Since there is a global shortage at a level, probably, beyond a bit of belt tightening, that bidding war will spiral.
To put it another way. A 20% reduction in supply will mean serious levels of demand destruction to balance.
Incidentally, the optics are going to be fun. Poor countries will run out - especially since they tend to be very road transport dependent. While rich countries grab the supplies they need.
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Plaid Green government and SNP Green in Scotland
Your worse nightmare is just a few week away
Nope, as I pointed out to you last night the SNP are forecast their worst result since 2007 on the new Holyrood Survation with the SNP projected to lose 8 MSPs.
In Wales as I also pointed out earlier the new Beaufort poll has Plaid and the Greens combined well short of a Senedd majority, only with Labour support could Plaid form a government in Wales.
You just cannot accept the idea independence majority goverments are a very real possibility in Scotland and Wales
They are not. SNP and the Greens combined are forecast to be down on 2021 on the new Survation poll and so Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 even if Swinney requests it.
In the Senedd Plaid are likely to need Labour to govern and Labour would block independence referendum talk in Wales but in any case Plaid unlike the SNP have not even included pushing for independence in their manifesto, at least not for a first time Plaid government
You constantly quote polls so read the one I posted that debunks your claim about Wales
As I said and you ignored, Plaid have NOT included independence in their manifesto, so even if Plaid won 100% of Senedd seats, which they won't, they could not push for a Welsh independence referendum as they would have no mandate for one
You are so naive
No you are the naive one, if you do not have a manifesto pledge for something you have no mandate for it, even if you win the election
And you believe that
I doubt Independence would win in Wales but if Plaid Green do win a majority it will not go away because you want it to
I don't see that leading for a campaign for independence in the short term, not least because there are divisions within Plaid on the subject. Rather I suspect the Salmond approach would be taken of trying to differentiate Wales from England and sabotage relations with Westminster at every term so it becomes a viable option in the longer term (indeed, I think the referendum happened somewhat before Salmond wanted it - I suspect his goal was for around 2020-25).
The snag is, Wales needs a hell of a lot more work than Scotland to be even considering independence as an option. And I see nothing from any party that they're ready to do that.
Wales also voted for Brexit like England so rejoining the EU would not be an option for them either
Has Starmer mentioned breakfast clubs yet. The twat mentioned Brexit.
He’s so dull.
He’s like one of Sturgeons marzipan dildos
This EU summit he will give everything away. Fuck him.
I stopped in to listen to this. I’m off to a luxurious little hamlet called Grange Villa for a 10 mile round trip on my bike. Better than listening to SKS.
➡️ REF UK 30% (+3) 🌳 CON 21% (+1) 🌹 LAB 19% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 12% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-3) ❓OTH 4% (nc) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,003 | 28-30/3| Change w 25/03
That 3% LibDem to Reform shift is interesting!
Tories on 20%+ will help in May. As will a 2% lead over Labour - Labour led them by 5% in 2022...
On those MiC numbers Tory vote is still down 9% on the 30% they got under Boris even in 2022 so plenty of Tory councillors will still be losing their seats to Reform and the LDs sadly. Even if Labour who were on 35% NEV in 2022 lose even more councillors to Reform and the Greens
The LibDems are only up 1% against the Tories on 2022.
Against Reform, it will depend on tactical voting.
The Tories main threat is Reform in May more than the LDs yes though a few seats in Hampshire and Sussex for example the Tories held against the LDs in 2021 may now fall.
Without anti Reform tactical voting Tory councillors face a massacre by Reform on the MiC numbers certainly, as do Labour councillors in Leave voting areas
Labour face a massacre in all areas, from Reform, from Greens, from Plaid and even from the Tories in any straight Labour-Tory fights.
The only places I could really see significant Tory gains from Labour are in West and North and Central London eg Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster and Barnet ie areas Reform will be weak. Otherwise with Reform now leading UK polls straight Labour v Tory fights will be few and far between, mainly confined to posh urban areas which would not vote for Farage's party of oiks but where the LDs don't have much presence either and which are too economically wealthy and centre right to vote Green
There will be some gains though which shoukd ameliorate some of the carnage from Reform. Rural Bradford, Trafford, Kirkless etc for example all have areas where Con should be gaining direct from Labour. No majority council gains likely outside London of course
Even in those rural seats Reform will be strong contenders too
I haven't been following this story, but is that the case that she is an alleged Chinese spy, and now she's been doing honey-trap stuff with a Trident submariner?
And the Government thinks this country is our ally and we need to be 'working in close consultation' with them.
An interesting unforgotten dynamic to May Elections.
Voter Registration
Remember that!
Going to be a fair number between 16 and 18 in July 2024 kow eligible.
Most likely to vote Green.
Mostly transient
Doubt they chose to register on 18th birthday.
Will it impact Green vote??
If they're living at home their parents probably registered them if they have any interest in politics (and that would be the group that votes Green).
Again, if they are at uni and politically active, they will probably have registered. If they're not they probably won't have registered but probably wouldn't have voted anyway.
Iran has pretty much no air defences left, with the Warthogs (A10s) and Apaches (helicopter gunships) having being in the air over Iran and the Straight for a couple of weeks now.
What they do still have is attack drones (Shaheds) and a few missiles left. They were throwing cruise missiles at the UAE yesterday, which were all shot down, but it’s indicative of low supplies of the ballistics. Almost every known defence industry factory and fixed launch site in Iran has been bombed, so it’s now a case of whatever they have stored and mobile or hidden launch facilities, plus whatever Russia and China can sneak in.
There’s probably a good chance the Americans can keep the Strait of Hormuz open tomorrow, but they don’t want to do it on their own.
The Houthis proved that it's dangerously easy to keep a shipping lane closed with a bunch of drones, and the US found that you couldn't stop drones being launched with air power alone.
And there were European warships involved trying to protect shipping then, and it still couldn't be done, and a deal had to be done with the Houthis instead.
If the US could reopen the Strait of Hormuz then they would do it. It would leave Iran defeated and impotent. They haven't because they can't.
I actually think the USN could open Hormuz just that it would require a level of commitment, risk and casaulties that would be politically unsupportable.
The RN will be even more windy about going downrange because any ships they are careless enough to lose will not be replaced and the traditional English jingoism will rapidly be displaced by squeamishness once the Gruz 200s start to stack up.
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Plaid Green government and SNP Green in Scotland
Your worse nightmare is just a few week away
Nope, as I pointed out to you last night the SNP are forecast their worst result since 2007 on the new Holyrood Survation with the SNP projected to lose 8 MSPs.
In Wales as I also pointed out earlier the new Beaufort poll has Plaid and the Greens combined well short of a Senedd majority, only with Labour support could Plaid form a government in Wales.
You just cannot accept the idea independence majority goverments are a very real possibility in Scotland and Wales
They are not. SNP and the Greens combined are forecast to be down on 2021 on the new Survation poll and so Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 even if Swinney requests it.
In the Senedd Plaid are likely to need Labour to govern and Labour would block independence referendum talk in Wales but in any case Plaid unlike the SNP have not even included pushing for independence in their manifesto, at least not for a first time Plaid government
You constantly quote polls so read the one I posted that debunks your claim about Wales
As I said and you ignored, Plaid have NOT included independence in their manifesto, so even if Plaid won 100% of Senedd seats, which they won't, they could not push for a Welsh independence referendum as they would have no mandate for one
You are so naive
No you are the naive one, if you do not have a manifesto pledge for something you have no mandate for it, even if you win the election
And you believe that
I doubt Independence would win in Wales but if Plaid Green do win a majority it will not go away because you want it to
I don't see that leading for a campaign for independence in the short term, not least because there are divisions within Plaid on the subject. Rather I suspect the Salmond approach would be taken of trying to differentiate Wales from England and sabotage relations with Westminster at every term so it becomes a viable option in the longer term (indeed, I think the referendum happened somewhat before Salmond wanted it - I suspect his goal was for around 2020-25).
The snag is, Wales needs a hell of a lot more work than Scotland to be even considering independence as an option. And I see nothing from any party that they're ready to do that.
I agree and Independence is a long way off, but it is very possible the Senedd will be led by an independence backing coalition
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Plaid Green government and SNP Green in Scotland
Your worse nightmare is just a few week away
Nope, as I pointed out to you last night the SNP are forecast their worst result since 2007 on the new Holyrood Survation with the SNP projected to lose 8 MSPs.
In Wales as I also pointed out earlier the new Beaufort poll has Plaid and the Greens combined well short of a Senedd majority, only with Labour support could Plaid form a government in Wales.
You just cannot accept the idea independence majority goverments are a very real possibility in Scotland and Wales
They are not. SNP and the Greens combined are forecast to be down on 2021 on the new Survation poll and so Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 even if Swinney requests it.
In the Senedd Plaid are likely to need Labour to govern and Labour would block independence referendum talk in Wales but in any case Plaid unlike the SNP have not even included pushing for independence in their manifesto, at least not for a first time Plaid government
You constantly quote polls so read the one I posted that debunks your claim about Wales
As I said and you ignored, Plaid have NOT included independence in their manifesto, so even if Plaid won 100% of Senedd seats, which they won't, they could not push for a Welsh independence referendum as they would have no mandate for one
You are so naive
No you are the naive one, if you do not have a manifesto pledge for something you have no mandate for it, even if you win the election
And you believe that
I doubt Independence would win in Wales but if Plaid Green do win a majority it will not go away because you want it to
I don't see that leading for a campaign for independence in the short term, not least because there are divisions within Plaid on the subject. Rather I suspect the Salmond approach would be taken of trying to differentiate Wales from England and sabotage relations with Westminster at every term so it becomes a viable option in the longer term (indeed, I think the referendum happened somewhat before Salmond wanted it - I suspect his goal was for around 2020-25).
The snag is, Wales needs a hell of a lot more work than Scotland to be even considering independence as an option. And I see nothing from any party that they're ready to do that.
I agree and Independence is a long way off, but it is very possible the Senedd will be led by an independence backing coalition
For the umpteenth time, independence is NOT in the Plaid manifesto this year!!!!
I haven't been following this story, but is that the case that she is an alleged Chinese spy, and now she's been doing honey-trap stuff with a Trident submariner?
And the Government thinks this country is our ally and we need to be 'working in close consultation' with them.
Her husband was the spy, apparently.
The RN concern seems to have been blackmail.
There is a John Winton novel called 'Polaris' on a similar subject - where a submarine commander starts an affair with a CND activist and is blackmailed over it.
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Plaid Green government and SNP Green in Scotland
Your worse nightmare is just a few week away
Nope, as I pointed out to you last night the SNP are forecast their worst result since 2007 on the new Holyrood Survation with the SNP projected to lose 8 MSPs.
In Wales as I also pointed out earlier the new Beaufort poll has Plaid and the Greens combined well short of a Senedd majority, only with Labour support could Plaid form a government in Wales.
You just cannot accept the idea independence majority goverments are a very real possibility in Scotland and Wales
They are not. SNP and the Greens combined are forecast to be down on 2021 on the new Survation poll and so Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 even if Swinney requests it.
In the Senedd Plaid are likely to need Labour to govern and Labour would block independence referendum talk in Wales but in any case Plaid unlike the SNP have not even included pushing for independence in their manifesto, at least not for a first time Plaid government
You constantly quote polls so read the one I posted that debunks your claim about Wales
As I said and you ignored, Plaid have NOT included independence in their manifesto, so even if Plaid won 100% of Senedd seats, which they won't, they could not push for a Welsh independence referendum as they would have no mandate for one
You are so naive
No you are the naive one, if you do not have a manifesto pledge for something you have no mandate for it, even if you win the election
And you believe that
I doubt Independence would win in Wales but if Plaid Green do win a majority it will not go away because you want it to
It is an iron law of politics and of course Starmer would rightly tell Plaid to sod off and rip to pieces any independence referendum request if they had the audacity to send one given they would have zero mandate for one as it was not even in their manifesto.
Many Welsh Unionists who lent their vote to Plaid only to remove Labour would also go back to Labour if Plaid pushed independence, the only reason Plaid have a chance of winning most seats for the first time since the Welsh Assembly was founded 27 years ago is they have dumped pushing independence this Senedd election
You are wishcasting
It didn't happen in Scotland nor will it in Wales
And your final sentence is simply bunkum as has been commented on by other posters
➡️ REF UK 30% (+3) 🌳 CON 21% (+1) 🌹 LAB 19% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 12% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-3) ❓OTH 4% (nc) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,003 | 28-30/3| Change w 25/03
That 3% LibDem to Reform shift is interesting!
Tories on 20%+ will help in May. As will a 2% lead over Labour - Labour led them by 5% in 2022...
On those MiC numbers Tory vote is still down 9% on the 30% they got under Boris even in 2022 so plenty of Tory councillors will still be losing their seats to Reform and the LDs sadly. Even if Labour who were on 35% NEV in 2022 lose even more councillors to Reform and the Greens
The LibDems are only up 1% against the Tories on 2022.
Against Reform, it will depend on tactical voting.
The Tories main threat is Reform in May more than the LDs yes though a few seats in Hampshire and Sussex for example the Tories held against the LDs in 2021 may now fall.
Without anti Reform tactical voting Tory councillors face a massacre by Reform on the MiC numbers certainly, as do Labour councillors in Leave voting areas
Labour face a massacre in all areas, from Reform, from Greens, from Plaid and even from the Tories in any straight Labour-Tory fights.
The only places I could really see significant Tory gains from Labour are in West and North and Central London eg Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster and Barnet ie areas Reform will be weak. Otherwise with Reform now leading UK polls straight Labour v Tory fights will be few and far between, mainly confined to posh urban areas which would not vote for Farage's party of oiks but where the LDs don't have much presence either and which are too economically wealthy and centre right to vote Green
There will be some gains though which shoukd ameliorate some of the carnage from Reform. Rural Bradford, Trafford, Kirkless etc for example all have areas where Con should be gaining direct from Labour. No majority council gains likely outside London of course
Even in those rural seats Reform will be strong contenders too
In some, yes. Not in all of them. They arent polling 40%, there will be areas they are not a factor
I haven't been following this story, but is that the case that she is an alleged Chinese spy, and now she's been doing honey-trap stuff with a Trident submariner?
And the Government thinks this country is our ally and we need to be 'working in close consultation' with them.
Her husband was the spy, apparently.
The RN concern seems to have been blackmail.
Oh, that's OK then. I am sure she's completely not a spy and very much surprised by her husband's activities, thought he was a trainspotter.
Starmer announces plans for a new UK/EU summit to push closer economic and security partnership with the bloc, saying Brexit did lasting damage to British economy.
You do have to make the extrapolation that Labour's further decline is Starmer having an absolutely shocking war. Trump pretty much declaring war on Starmer is a bad look for Labour.
Plaid would still likely need Labour support to form a government in Wales though on the Beaufort poll
Plaid Green government and SNP Green in Scotland
Your worse nightmare is just a few week away
Nope, as I pointed out to you last night the SNP are forecast their worst result since 2007 on the new Holyrood Survation with the SNP projected to lose 8 MSPs.
In Wales as I also pointed out earlier the new Beaufort poll has Plaid and the Greens combined well short of a Senedd majority, only with Labour support could Plaid form a government in Wales.
You just cannot accept the idea independence majority goverments are a very real possibility in Scotland and Wales
They are not. SNP and the Greens combined are forecast to be down on 2021 on the new Survation poll and so Starmer will easily refuse indyref2 even if Swinney requests it.
In the Senedd Plaid are likely to need Labour to govern and Labour would block independence referendum talk in Wales but in any case Plaid unlike the SNP have not even included pushing for independence in their manifesto, at least not for a first time Plaid government
You constantly quote polls so read the one I posted that debunks your claim about Wales
As I said and you ignored, Plaid have NOT included independence in their manifesto, so even if Plaid won 100% of Senedd seats, which they won't, they could not push for a Welsh independence referendum as they would have no mandate for one
You are so naive
No you are the naive one, if you do not have a manifesto pledge for something you have no mandate for it, even if you win the election
And you believe that
I doubt Independence would win in Wales but if Plaid Green do win a majority it will not go away because you want it to
I don't see that leading for a campaign for independence in the short term, not least because there are divisions within Plaid on the subject. Rather I suspect the Salmond approach would be taken of trying to differentiate Wales from England and sabotage relations with Westminster at every term so it becomes a viable option in the longer term (indeed, I think the referendum happened somewhat before Salmond wanted it - I suspect his goal was for around 2020-25).
The snag is, Wales needs a hell of a lot more work than Scotland to be even considering independence as an option. And I see nothing from any party that they're ready to do that.
Wales also voted for Brexit like England so rejoining the EU would not be an option for them either
Iran has pretty much no air defences left, with the Warthogs (A10s) and Apaches (helicopter gunships) having being in the air over Iran and the Straight for a couple of weeks now.
What they do still have is attack drones (Shaheds) and a few missiles left. They were throwing cruise missiles at the UAE yesterday, which were all shot down, but it’s indicative of low supplies of the ballistics. Almost every known defence industry factory and fixed launch site in Iran has been bombed, so it’s now a case of whatever they have stored and mobile or hidden launch facilities, plus whatever Russia and China can sneak in.
There’s probably a good chance the Americans can keep the Strait of Hormuz open tomorrow, but they don’t want to do it on their own.
The Houthis proved that it's dangerously easy to keep a shipping lane closed with a bunch of drones, and the US found that you couldn't stop drones being launched with air power alone.
And there were European warships involved trying to protect shipping then, and it still couldn't be done, and a deal had to be done with the Houthis instead.
If the US could reopen the Strait of Hormuz then they would do it. It would leave Iran defeated and impotent. They haven't because they can't.
I actually think the USN could open Hormuz just that it would require a level of commitment, risk and casaulties that would be politically unsupportable.
The RN will be even more windy about going downrange because any ships they are careless enough to lose will not be replaced and the traditional English jingoism will rapidly be displaced by squeamishness once the Gruz 200s start to stack up.
The number of tankers that normally transit the Strait is so high, and oil tankers so large and slow, that I think it would be really hard. Plus, of course, Iran could target ships all the way up the Gulf.
The aspect in the tankers' favour is that the Iranians would put a lot of effort into targeting US warships, but even so.
I haven't been following this story, but is that the case that she is an alleged Chinese spy, and now she's been doing honey-trap stuff with a Trident submariner?
And the Government thinks this country is our ally and we need to be 'working in close consultation' with them.
Her husband was the spy, apparently.
The RN concern seems to have been blackmail.
Oh, that's OK then. I am sure she's completely not a spy and very much surprised by her husband's activities, thought he was a trainspotter.
You find the idea that a husband went behind his wife’s back hard to imagine?
➡️ REF UK 30% (+3) 🌳 CON 21% (+1) 🌹 LAB 19% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 12% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-3) ❓OTH 4% (nc) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,003 | 28-30/3| Change w 25/03
That 3% LibDem to Reform shift is interesting!
Tories on 20%+ will help in May. As will a 2% lead over Labour - Labour led them by 5% in 2022...
On those MiC numbers Tory vote is still down 9% on the 30% they got under Boris even in 2022 so plenty of Tory councillors will still be losing their seats to Reform and the LDs sadly. Even if Labour who were on 35% NEV in 2022 lose even more councillors to Reform and the Greens
The LibDems are only up 1% against the Tories on 2022.
Against Reform, it will depend on tactical voting.
The Tories main threat is Reform in May more than the LDs yes though a few seats in Hampshire and Sussex for example the Tories held against the LDs in 2021 may now fall.
Without anti Reform tactical voting Tory councillors face a massacre by Reform on the MiC numbers certainly, as do Labour councillors in Leave voting areas
Labour face a massacre in all areas, from Reform, from Greens, from Plaid and even from the Tories in any straight Labour-Tory fights.
The only places I could really see significant Tory gains from Labour are in West and North and Central London eg Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster and Barnet ie areas Reform will be weak. Otherwise with Reform now leading UK polls straight Labour v Tory fights will be few and far between, mainly confined to posh urban areas which would not vote for Farage's party of oiks but where the LDs don't have much presence either and which are too economically wealthy and centre right to vote Green
There will be some gains though which shoukd ameliorate some of the carnage from Reform. Rural Bradford, Trafford, Kirkless etc for example all have areas where Con should be gaining direct from Labour. No majority council gains likely outside London of course
Is it the wards elected in 2022 that are up? I've just had a look at Trafford: I can see Tories picking up Ashton on Mersey and Brooklands, simply through antipathy to Labour, and perhaps Davyhulmes East and West - though the Tories have seriously waned in Greater Manchester: the unfashionability of voting Tory even in quite affluent areas which was already firmly entrenched within the M60 appears to have spread outwards over the past fifteen years. More interesting to me are Altrincham ward and Hale Central ward - these are amongst the most affluent wards in Trafford, but were won easily by the Greens last time round largely on a NIMBY issue. I wonder whether momentum here will be maintained? This is very much not natural territory for the far left.
➡️ REF UK 30% (+3) 🌳 CON 21% (+1) 🌹 LAB 19% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 12% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-3) ❓OTH 4% (nc) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,003 | 28-30/3| Change w 25/03
That 3% LibDem to Reform shift is interesting!
Tories on 20%+ will help in May. As will a 2% lead over Labour - Labour led them by 5% in 2022...
On those MiC numbers Tory vote is still down 9% on the 30% they got under Boris even in 2022 so plenty of Tory councillors will still be losing their seats to Reform and the LDs sadly. Even if Labour who were on 35% NEV in 2022 lose even more councillors to Reform and the Greens
The LibDems are only up 1% against the Tories on 2022.
Against Reform, it will depend on tactical voting.
The Tories main threat is Reform in May more than the LDs yes though a few seats in Hampshire and Sussex for example the Tories held against the LDs in 2021 may now fall.
Without anti Reform tactical voting Tory councillors face a massacre by Reform on the MiC numbers certainly, as do Labour councillors in Leave voting areas
Labour face a massacre in all areas, from Reform, from Greens, from Plaid and even from the Tories in any straight Labour-Tory fights.
The only places I could really see significant Tory gains from Labour are in West and North and Central London eg Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster and Barnet ie areas Reform will be weak. Otherwise with Reform now leading UK polls straight Labour v Tory fights will be few and far between, mainly confined to posh urban areas which would not vote for Farage's party of oiks but where the LDs don't have much presence either and which are too economically wealthy and centre right to vote Green
There will be some gains though which shoukd ameliorate some of the carnage from Reform. Rural Bradford, Trafford, Kirkless etc for example all have areas where Con should be gaining direct from Labour. No majority council gains likely outside London of course
Is it the wards elected in 2022 that are up? I've just had a look at Trafford: I can see Tories picking up Ashton on Mersey and Brooklands, simply through antipathy to Labour, and perhaps Davyhulmes East and West - though the Tories have seriously waned in Greater Manchester: the unfashionability of voting Tory even in quite affluent areas which was already firmly entrenched within the M60 appears to have spread outwards over the past fifteen years. More interesting to me are Altrincham ward and Hale Central ward - these are amongst the most affluent wards in Trafford, but were won easily by the Greens last time round largely on a NIMBY issue. I wonder whether momentum here will be maintained? This is very much not natural territory for the far left.
I haven't been following this story, but is that the case that she is an alleged Chinese spy, and now she's been doing honey-trap stuff with a Trident submariner?
And the Government thinks this country is our ally and we need to be 'working in close consultation' with them.
*Two* submariners.
Apparently the officers reported in the FT and the Times are different ones!
Iran has pretty much no air defences left, with the Warthogs (A10s) and Apaches (helicopter gunships) having being in the air over Iran and the Straight for a couple of weeks now.
What they do still have is attack drones (Shaheds) and a few missiles left. They were throwing cruise missiles at the UAE yesterday, which were all shot down, but it’s indicative of low supplies of the ballistics. Almost every known defence industry factory and fixed launch site in Iran has been bombed, so it’s now a case of whatever they have stored and mobile or hidden launch facilities, plus whatever Russia and China can sneak in.
There’s probably a good chance the Americans can keep the Strait of Hormuz open tomorrow, but they don’t want to do it on their own.
The Houthis proved that it's dangerously easy to keep a shipping lane closed with a bunch of drones, and the US found that you couldn't stop drones being launched with air power alone.
And there were European warships involved trying to protect shipping then, and it still couldn't be done, and a deal had to be done with the Houthis instead.
If the US could reopen the Strait of Hormuz then they would do it. It would leave Iran defeated and impotent. They haven't because they can't.
I actually think the USN could open Hormuz just that it would require a level of commitment, risk and casaulties that would be politically unsupportable.
The RN will be even more windy about going downrange because any ships they are careless enough to lose will not be replaced and the traditional English jingoism will rapidly be displaced by squeamishness once the Gruz 200s start to stack up.
It takes the Navy three years to build a ship. It will take three hundred years to build a new tradition.
China will be noting the unwillingness of the USN and USA generally to accept casualties.
Iran has pretty much no air defences left, with the Warthogs (A10s) and Apaches (helicopter gunships) having being in the air over Iran and the Straight for a couple of weeks now.
What they do still have is attack drones (Shaheds) and a few missiles left. They were throwing cruise missiles at the UAE yesterday, which were all shot down, but it’s indicative of low supplies of the ballistics. Almost every known defence industry factory and fixed launch site in Iran has been bombed, so it’s now a case of whatever they have stored and mobile or hidden launch facilities, plus whatever Russia and China can sneak in.
There’s probably a good chance the Americans can keep the Strait of Hormuz open tomorrow, but they don’t want to do it on their own.
The Houthis proved that it's dangerously easy to keep a shipping lane closed with a bunch of drones, and the US found that you couldn't stop drones being launched with air power alone.
And there were European warships involved trying to protect shipping then, and it still couldn't be done, and a deal had to be done with the Houthis instead.
If the US could reopen the Strait of Hormuz then they would do it. It would leave Iran defeated and impotent. They haven't because they can't.
I actually think the USN could open Hormuz just that it would require a level of commitment, risk and casaulties that would be politically unsupportable.
The RN will be even more windy about going downrange because any ships they are careless enough to lose will not be replaced and the traditional English jingoism will rapidly be displaced by squeamishness once the Gruz 200s start to stack up.
The number of tankers that normally transit the Strait is so high, and oil tankers so large and slow, that I think it would be really hard. Plus, of course, Iran could target ships all the way up the Gulf.
The aspect in the tankers' favour is that the Iranians would put a lot of effort into targeting US warships, but even so.
They were talking to the former Captain of the USS Kearsage on Today a few weeks ago. He was saying that transiting the Straits of Hormuz they would move overnight and use a light arrangement on the ship that made it look like a tanker and they would turn off all their military comms and switch to normal civilian channels only. He explained that the IRGC wouldn’t know they were US military but they would get shed loads of abuse and threats anyway over the radio.
➡️ REF UK 30% (+3) 🌳 CON 21% (+1) 🌹 LAB 19% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 12% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-3) ❓OTH 4% (nc) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,003 | 28-30/3| Change w 25/03
That 3% LibDem to Reform shift is interesting!
Tories on 20%+ will help in May. As will a 2% lead over Labour - Labour led them by 5% in 2022...
On those MiC numbers Tory vote is still down 9% on the 30% they got under Boris even in 2022 so plenty of Tory councillors will still be losing their seats to Reform and the LDs sadly. Even if Labour who were on 35% NEV in 2022 lose even more councillors to Reform and the Greens
The LibDems are only up 1% against the Tories on 2022.
Against Reform, it will depend on tactical voting.
The Tories main threat is Reform in May more than the LDs yes though a few seats in Hampshire and Sussex for example the Tories held against the LDs in 2021 may now fall.
Without anti Reform tactical voting Tory councillors face a massacre by Reform on the MiC numbers certainly, as do Labour councillors in Leave voting areas
Labour face a massacre in all areas, from Reform, from Greens, from Plaid and even from the Tories in any straight Labour-Tory fights.
The only places I could really see significant Tory gains from Labour are in West and North and Central London eg Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster and Barnet ie areas Reform will be weak. Otherwise with Reform now leading UK polls straight Labour v Tory fights will be few and far between, mainly confined to posh urban areas which would not vote for Farage's party of oiks but where the LDs don't have much presence either and which are too economically wealthy and centre right to vote Green
There will be some gains though which shoukd ameliorate some of the carnage from Reform. Rural Bradford, Trafford, Kirkless etc for example all have areas where Con should be gaining direct from Labour. No majority council gains likely outside London of course
Is it the wards elected in 2022 that are up? I've just had a look at Trafford: I can see Tories picking up Ashton on Mersey and Brooklands, simply through antipathy to Labour, and perhaps Davyhulmes East and West - though the Tories have seriously waned in Greater Manchester: the unfashionability of voting Tory even in quite affluent areas which was already firmly entrenched within the M60 appears to have spread outwards over the past fifteen years. More interesting to me are Altrincham ward and Hale Central ward - these are amongst the most affluent wards in Trafford, but were won easily by the Greens last time round largely on a NIMBY issue. I wonder whether momentum here will be maintained? This is very much not natural territory for the far left.
Yeah its the 2022 Third up this time
Thanks. Further observation: I'd expect Ref to be competitive in Bucklow St. Martin's, but nowhere else to me looks instinctively favourable for them.
In a rare departure from the DM role, I recently played in a first 40K TTRPG session. It went rather well, though I'm not very familiar with the setting.
➡️ REF UK 30% (+3) 🌳 CON 21% (+1) 🌹 LAB 19% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 12% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-3) ❓OTH 4% (nc) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,003 | 28-30/3| Change w 25/03
That 3% LibDem to Reform shift is interesting!
Tories on 20%+ will help in May. As will a 2% lead over Labour - Labour led them by 5% in 2022...
On those MiC numbers Tory vote is still down 9% on the 30% they got under Boris even in 2022 so plenty of Tory councillors will still be losing their seats to Reform and the LDs sadly. Even if Labour who were on 35% NEV in 2022 lose even more councillors to Reform and the Greens
The LibDems are only up 1% against the Tories on 2022.
Against Reform, it will depend on tactical voting.
The Tories main threat is Reform in May more than the LDs yes though a few seats in Hampshire and Sussex for example the Tories held against the LDs in 2021 may now fall.
Without anti Reform tactical voting Tory councillors face a massacre by Reform on the MiC numbers certainly, as do Labour councillors in Leave voting areas
Labour face a massacre in all areas, from Reform, from Greens, from Plaid and even from the Tories in any straight Labour-Tory fights.
The only places I could really see significant Tory gains from Labour are in West and North and Central London eg Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster and Barnet ie areas Reform will be weak. Otherwise with Reform now leading UK polls straight Labour v Tory fights will be few and far between, mainly confined to posh urban areas which would not vote for Farage's party of oiks but where the LDs don't have much presence either and which are too economically wealthy and centre right to vote Green
There will be some gains though which shoukd ameliorate some of the carnage from Reform. Rural Bradford, Trafford, Kirkless etc for example all have areas where Con should be gaining direct from Labour. No majority council gains likely outside London of course
Is it the wards elected in 2022 that are up? I've just had a look at Trafford: I can see Tories picking up Ashton on Mersey and Brooklands, simply through antipathy to Labour, and perhaps Davyhulmes East and West - though the Tories have seriously waned in Greater Manchester: the unfashionability of voting Tory even in quite affluent areas which was already firmly entrenched within the M60 appears to have spread outwards over the past fifteen years. More interesting to me are Altrincham ward and Hale Central ward - these are amongst the most affluent wards in Trafford, but were won easily by the Greens last time round largely on a NIMBY issue. I wonder whether momentum here will be maintained? This is very much not natural territory for the far left.
Yeah its the 2022 Third up this time
Thanks. Further observation: I'd expect Ref to be competitive in Bucklow St. Martin's, but nowhere else to me looks instinctively favourable for them.
Tories should also take Broadheath. And of course won Hale in a by last year
Comments
https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/welsh_polling/senedd_polling/senedd-2026-seat-calculator
IIRC ‘key workers’ (public sector) could jump queues and limits. It was intended for nurses on call, fire trucks etc, but ended up being abused by desk-based civil servants and their families. WFH was mostly not practical at the time.
Rationing is not an obviously stupid policy, given what has happened.
We don’t have the import “pipeline” data to tell when the constraints will hit us. But they will.
The biggest problem with announcing rationing is the panic buying that will hit. Needs coordination with the oil companies, the various retailers and the police (public order)
Among other things, expect the justice system to go to “riot mode” - charging offences to the maximum sustainable by the evidence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_Kingdom_local_elections
1. Is it actually happening, or is it a piece of online tomfoolery?
2. Do we know if Boring Old Starmer has a Funky New Lectern?
There are exemptions for roadside hedge cutting and snow clearing on main roads to allow tractors to run on red
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_H0C5CNMK8
The leadership figures were essentially unmoved from last week
If the Tories can keep within 5% or so in the NEV on May 7th then it shouldnt be 'too' bad a night for them
Still, one more component of a future independent Scotland removed, so every cloud has a Unionist lining.
Albanese didnt, so there's no reason to think Starmer now will
Using taxis to take SEND kids to school or asylum seekers to the doctors
Against Reform, it will depend on tactical voting.
The trend is or isn't your friend and for God's sake, no more ludicrous "averages".
This is also a Westminster VI poll - how it will translate into local election numbers next month is far from clear.
What they do still have is attack drones (Shaheds) and a few missiles left. They were throwing cruise missiles at the UAE yesterday, which were all shot down, but it’s indicative of low supplies of the ballistics. Almost every known defence industry factory and fixed launch site in Iran has been bombed, so it’s now a case of whatever they have stored and mobile or hidden launch facilities, plus whatever Russia and China can sneak in.
There’s probably a good chance the Americans can keep the Strait of Hormuz open tomorrow, but they don’t want to do it on their own.
Your worse nightmare is just a few week away
Without anti Reform tactical voting Tory councillors face a massacre by Reform on the MiC numbers certainly, as do Labour councillors in Leave voting areas
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=mm.+malheuret#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:17157640,vid:FXPD6bjrlXg,st:0
As they say in Pottery Barn "You break it, you own it".
It really is the action of a toddler, with his smashed toy saying "Mummy fix it!"
A.M.MacJ
@ammacj
·
3h
Very rarely I commend Euan McColm.
But here he was singing the praises of Joani Reid.
‘keep an eye on ‘Joani Reid’👇
https://x.com/ammacj/status/2039217375464038662?s=20
In all seriousness, we really are in a bind here. At short notice very little fuel consumption can be reduced without significant damage to the economy. And a large proportion of that discretionary travel is incurred by those rich enough to absorb the cost - I won’t be cancelling my Easter weekend, and I won’t be doing 40 on the way up.
You can mock as much as you want but the government doesn’t have any other options but to suggest stuff like this. If only we’d made the transition to EVs more quickly.
In Wales as I also pointed out earlier the new Beaufort poll has Plaid and the Greens combined well short of a Senedd majority, only with Labour support could Plaid form a government in Wales.
I'm glad to share a desire to re-open Grangemouth even if our reasons are entirely different.
Wondering how extensive the Reform coverage is going to be.
1) that is a fart in a thunderstorm of national fuel usage.
2) many taxi drivers are now fully electric.
Compared to Pompidou or Giscard, say, Trump is a bungling amateur when it comes to corruption and both of them got away with it.
I'm wondering whether there will be as many Conservative candidates as there usually are given the party's decline since 2022.
https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54394-first-yougov-mrp-of-the-2026-senedd-election-shows-plaid-cymru-on-course-to-be-the-largest-party
Though in "straw in the wind" news, one of the Conservative Action Team here in Romford has been unpersoned with the ruthlessness of that photo of Stalin and Yezhov.
We should remember school buses in many areas have died a death so that's not a straightforward option.
Do I have an exemption for in person teaching, some of which is sixty miles from where I live? It would be exceptionally difficult to move that on line for various reasons, even though the majority of my teaching contact time is from home these days. What about teachers in private schools if exemptions are allowed? How long and how much?
These are going to be awkward questions if we run really short.
In the Senedd Plaid are likely to need Labour to govern and Labour would block independence referendum talk in Wales but in any case Plaid unlike the SNP have not even included pushing for independence in their manifesto, at least not for a first time Plaid government
And every person's fuel usage is somewhere between important and vital to themselves.
Restrict Peter's usage but not that of Paul and Peter is not going to be happy.
On the one hand, we seem to be, as usual, talking ourselves into a fuel panic and crisis.
From what I can see, we now get very little oil from the Gulf - most of ours comes from the US (I wonder if Trump knows how much leverage that gives him potentially), Norway and Libya according to Statista.
We are nowhere near as dependent on Gulf supplies as China and other countries.
So, while accepting we will pay more for our petrol and especially diesel in the coming weeks and months, is there really any threat of a shortage or are we going to panic ourselves into shortages?
As for the usual suspects calling for the temporary scrapping of fuel duty, I'd again mention the £25 billion the Government gets from said duty each year and set that against the debt interest payments we have to make following the insanity of previous administrations. I'm fine with a temporary relaxation but perhaps we should have a temporary rise in other taxes to offset - I suspect that won't be popular.
(Check the date.)
And there were European warships involved trying to protect shipping then, and it still couldn't be done, and a deal had to be done with the Houthis instead.
If the US could reopen the Strait of Hormuz then they would do it. It would leave Iran defeated and impotent. They haven't because they can't.
I’ve found an upside - if the government fucks ip the A levels like last time, they will force the universities to take the students. Which means a 25% increase in medic graduates…
No, wait.
Who have no training places in the NHS. Darn it!
But I suspect Reeves will be glad to bank the excess.
I doubt Independence would win in Wales but if Plaid Green do win a majority it will not go away because you want it to
(2) That's one reason why I can't see exams being cancelled. But then it was impossible to cancel them in 2020, and they did it anyway even though there were I think ways they could have gone ahead, and failed to prepare properly for exams being cancelled in 2021 even though it was obvious from October they wouldn't be happening because of the disruption to learning caused by individual quarantines. So let's not assume sanity will be involved.
I don't think we can assume that all of the 20% cut in supply is going to fall on countries that used to get their oil from the Gulf. Those countries will be looking to buy from the US now too.
Remember those stories about PPE shipments being seized on runways at the start of the pandemic? There's going to be all sorts of competition to secure oil supplies.
And the Government thinks this country is our ally and we need to be 'working in close consultation' with them.
Voter Registration
Remember that!
Going to be a fair number between 16 and 18 in July 2024 kow eligible.
Most likely to vote Green.
Mostly transient
Doubt they chose to register on 18th birthday.
Will it impact Green vote??
Many Welsh Unionists who lent their vote to Plaid only to remove Labour would also go back to Labour if Plaid pushed independence, the only reason Plaid have a chance of winning most seats for the first time since the Welsh Assembly was founded 27 years ago is they have dumped pushing independence this Senedd election
The snag is, Wales needs a hell of a lot more work than Scotland to be even considering independence as an option. And I see nothing from any party that they're ready to do that.
At this moment there is a bidding war for those supplies.
Since there is a global shortage at a level, probably, beyond a bit of belt tightening, that bidding war will spiral.
To put it another way. A 20% reduction in supply will mean serious levels of demand destruction to balance.
Incidentally, the optics are going to be fun. Poor countries will run out - especially since they tend to be very road transport dependent. While rich countries grab the supplies they need.
He’s so dull.
He’s like one of Sturgeons marzipan dildos
This EU summit he will give everything away. Fuck him.
I stopped in to listen to this. I’m off to a luxurious little hamlet called Grange Villa for a 10 mile round trip on my bike. Better than listening to SKS.
I’d sooner listen to my parents humping.
The RN concern seems to have been blackmail.
Again, if they are at uni and politically active, they will probably have registered. If they're not they probably won't have registered but probably wouldn't have voted anyway.
The RN will be even more windy about going downrange because any ships they are careless enough to lose will not be replaced and the traditional English jingoism will rapidly be displaced by squeamishness once the Gruz 200s start to stack up.
It didn't happen in Scotland nor will it in Wales
And your final sentence is simply bunkum as has been commented on by other posters
Starmer announces plans for a new UK/EU summit to push closer economic and security partnership with the bloc, saying Brexit did lasting damage to British economy.
The aspect in the tankers' favour is that the Iranians would put a lot of effort into targeting US warships, but even so.
What does he have to say to the supply issue? Just banging on about workers rights and cutting fuel bills.
Not one attempt to reassure on supply.
Apparently the officers reported in the FT and the Times are different ones!
China will be noting the unwillingness of the USN and USA generally to accept casualties.
"How English-only condolences undid one of Canada's top CEOs"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cyv1q9gz39do
In a rare departure from the DM role, I recently played in a first 40K TTRPG session. It went rather well, though I'm not very familiar with the setting.