How anti-Reform tactical voting could deny the SNP a majority – politicalbetting.com
How anti-Reform tactical voting could deny the SNP a majority – politicalbetting.com
NEW: Scottish Parliament Voting Intention (Constituency Vote)SNP 35% (-2)RFM 19% (+2)LAB 19% (+1)CON 11% (-1)LD 8% (-1)GRN 8% (+2)F/w 16th-23rd March 2026. Changes vs 25/02/2026 Read more: https://t.co/baFIlaY5VR?1/5 pic.twitter.com/86Wc6lVa1F
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https://x.com/geiger_capital/status/2038729125653819515
Yet more evidence that last weekend’s protestors didn’t have a clue what they were actually protesting…
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/31/karl-turner-labour-whip-suspended
Given Damien McBride managed to come back…
The five points are as follows:
China and Pakistan have called for the “immediate cessation of hostilities” and efforts to prevent the conflict from spreading.
Peace talks should begin as soon as possible, while ensuring the sovereignty and security of Iran and Gulf states. The two countries added that they would support all parties in initiating these talks.
Attacks on civilians and non-military targets must end.
The Strait of Hormuz’s shipping lanes must be secured.
A comprehensive peace framework, in line with the UN Charter, must be established.
Can only assume there must be a huge amount of anyone but Labour bad blood in the SNP voting base. But still....
Trump at war:
1. Start war. Do not tell allies.
2. Blow stuff up.
3. Demand regime change.
4. Blow up more stuff.
5. Demand unconditional surrender.
6. Get angry when enemy fights back.
7. Make threats.
8. Back down. Repeat.
9. Demand allies finish war.
10. Walk away.
https://x.com/TerryMoran/status/2038955268491321740?s=20
No Global Superpower has ever lost this hard, this fast.
Less than 6 weeks ago, his exit in 2026 Q2 was trading around 4. It's now 11.5.
Later periods have all shortened to offset the above, but now in the last 10 days 2026 Q3 has gone into reverse and also started drifting - from below 2.5 to now around 2.8.
Every day that goes by it's looking increasingly likely he survives until next year. Quite apart from the war there is the practical issue that the King's speech is immediately after the Local election results making a challenge unrealistic at that time.
I think wanker is a better summary of what SKS is
Sure. He seemed to me to be a guy who has two ways of dealing with people. Charm or fury. You get the charm if you kiss his a** or he needs something from you. And you get the fury if you don't kiss his a*** and challenge him.
The key thing is that in the second case, he wants a fight on his terms. He wants you to take him on at his level of rage and insults and hollering. His tactic is to to tear you apart verbally, wound you, so that your blood boils and you try to fight back on his level, get down in the muck with him.
But what if you're respectful--while still challenging him? What if you treat him in a calm, polite way, while standing up to him? He has no idea what to do with that. He's counting on his opponents to fight on his level.
Think of Mark Carney. Trump hates that guy. Because Carney pushes back--hard. Stands up for himself and his country--very, very calmly. Still very tough. And Trump cannot deal with that.
My goal in that interview was not to fight with him, but to confront him respectfully and forcefully with legitimate questions I thought people would want answered. I could tell it flummoxed him. At one point, Trump threatened to cut off the interview. I gave him no reason to do so. I simply told him we were going to finish. He sagged back in his chair. You can see it in the video; go look.
At he end of the interview, Trump stormed out. ABC had arranged for a walk through the Rose Garden Concrete Patio. "NOT AFTER THAT INTERVIEW!" he barked. Stormed out. Susie Wiles and a Disney VP who was there had to beg him to come back--because ABC had booked an hour of prime time, and we were short. That's when he sat at the Resolute Desk and babbled about the Declaration of Independence. He wouldn't look at me. Still rattled.
In the middle of the interview, as he got angrier and angrier at me, I remember looking into his eyes--narrowed and flashing with his emotion, a little bloodshot from all the makeup--and I thought, he's mean. But he's not tough.
I think that's what we are seeing in this war.
https://x.com/TerryMoran/status/2038983208855859577?s=20
Here's an extended discussion of the Clinton impeachment and trial:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_trial_of_Bill_Clinton
For the record: I think both were guilty, but will let lawyers argue whether they were guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.
https://x.com/karlturnermp/status/2038960901185769693?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://x.com/jdvance/status/2038982807536492876
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/billionaire-hands-250k-tories-despite-26393794
https://unherd.com/newsroom/labour-mps-should-get-rid-of-starmer-before-its-too-late/
(FWIW, the ChiComs are competing with us, and doing the things that lead me to conclude they plan to build a base on the moon.)
If they were to come in at ca 24% NEV ala YG/FoN then there is no way they are winning absolutely everything in the metro North like Wakefield and Sunderland for example, taking the East Anglian counties, making breakthroughs in the likes of Sussex AND taking councils in London whilst storming Wales and making hard progress in Scotland.
Scotland already has a well-developed habit of voting tactically when a party is regarded as beyond the pale or as the principal danger. If Reform come to occupy that space, then anti-Reform consolidation may prove stronger there than in England, where tribal and cultural loyalties may inhibit it more.
That in turn creates an awkward possibility for the SNP. Reform’s rise could fragment the opposition vote in the abstract, but if in practice it prompts a Labour squeeze among anti-Reform voters, it may actually make SNP majorities harder rather than easier to achieve.
So the key question may not be Reform’s raw vote share so much as whether their presence changes the coordination behaviour of everyone else.
We have to deal with the more likely outcomes of a 25% Ref NEV (in this example)
They are going to do well, but how well? And where?
Those are the defining factors for Reforms narrative May 8th onwards
🚨 JUST IN — IT’S OFFICIAL: Palm Beach International Airport is now Donald J. Trump International Airport, following Gov. Ron DeSantis’ signature on HB919
The name change goes into effect on July 1st.
China plans to build moon base at the lunar south pole by 2035
https://www.space.com/china-moon-base-south-pole-2035
I wish Artemis well too, but I doubt it will ever land astronauts on the moon.
He must be hating the trolling coming out of Tehran.
And I wonder what they will rename it in a couple of years time ?
This is a probability argument as much as anything.
So, Britain votes Now have got 21 Reform first places and 4 LD first places. But they are all up and each ward is returning three councillors. So, every Labour councillor has to come fourth or worse to lose.
This gives the chance of ward splitting, a good Labour councillor might get some votes from people who have sufficiently expressed their displeasure with two crosses elsewhere, Reform have to put up 75 candidates without reverting to anyone who ends up looking like a total bell end.
So, for wards like below in which Labour are 40% chance for the win, the chance of sneaking somebody through must be good.
https://britain.votes.now/local-elections/may-26/sunderland-election/barnes-and-thornhill
Note, this is my assessment for a total wipe out being a tough ask, I'm not for a moment claiming that Labour will do well.
First the coppers abandon Non Hate Crime Incidents, now.... another thing we cannot discuss but is good
Fair's fair. If this is genuine, and not some smokescreen, I heartily applaud and give credit where it is due
I know he tends to get ignored in the whirl of global events, probably very few PBers have even heard of him - and we're political geeks! - but if you drill down he's done some stupid shit recently
TSE says, quite understandably:
One thing I am paying close attention to in May’s local election is the level, if any, of any tactical anti-Reform voting as I think it will be a harbinger for the 2029 general election
However it seems to me that in England people pay little attention to the detail of party politics at the local level in local elections. Being mostly about bins and bollards it is not all that important. Nor is there the sort of scrutiny and granular detail that can help people know what a tactical vote might be - while in 2029 this will be a massive subject.
I expect little tactical voting in England in May, and a tremendous amount in 2029. If I had to guess right now, I think the principal beneficiary in 2029 will be Labour in England (and PC/SNP elsewhere), and that as a result the Left of Centre will get to 325 + seats whatever Reform and the Tories do.
The way it will resolve in England is that there will be masses of complicated discussions, bar charts and graphs and double speak about how to vote 'Not Reform', but that the obvious conclusion will prevail: Labour (and in 75 seats LDs) hold the seat. Labour (or LD) are the first choice for the 'Not Reform' tactical vote.
The evolutionary advantage of side mounted eyes is a wider field of vision, useful for spotting approaching predators.
As such it is likely that any rhino artist would view their subject with one eye, and the horn would not be in the way.
The elephant in the room is how an artistic rhino would hold their paintbrush.
"Excl: German airport hub Frankfurt, along with Delhi, Mumbai, Hong Kong, Manila, Melbourne airports are now ‘high risk’ for jet fuel shortage in April 🚨 - set to declare a jet fuel supply emergency to airlines in April, as US-Israel war on Iran continues."
https://x.com/AlexInAir/status/2038984052921741571?s=20
This could basically end air travel worldwide, very soon, because fuel will be so expensive tickets will triple in price, which no one can afford. So the planes don't fly
The second third and fourth order effects of this STUPID war get progressively worse and wilder, once you think them through. Truly Armageddony shit is possible
London: Where are you staying? And for how long, or is it a day trip?
I've always enjoyed the Double Tree at Canary Wharf which had its own ferry. But that has been replaced by an official electric ferry (shamefully not a bridge! ). My other suggestion would be travel by bus or cycle, not tube, as you get the sights.
But left to my own devices I'd do something mad like cycle the full length of the Thames Path through central London, and do a walk down the route of one of the hidden rivers.
As a first visit taster, I'd probably say ONE of the major museums (I'd go for V&A probably), and the top of one tower (which could be the Shard, or Horizon 22 in Bishopsgate, which is nearly as high, and free). If you are up there then, of course Spitalfields Market, and also consider Dennis Severs' house in Spitalfields which is the Georgian House set to feel and smell as if the family have just left (you need one adult per child under 16, and I'm not sure how their prices work - it may be per time slot).
A less prominent museum worth a try could be the London Transport Museum. Trip on the River?
For quirky history there is Sambourne House and John Soane's House, both with cartoonist associations. Or I hear good things about the Cartoon Museum. There is also Hogarth's House at Chiswick, but I never got to that one.
Web page of quirky museums: https://www.artdistance.com/artstravel/quirky-character-house-museums-in-london
For National Trust, I'd suggest Fenton House (antique musical instruments) and 2 Willow Road (modernist), but if you are not members that adds up.
But there's more than enough to pander to their interests and sow seeds for the future. There is also a huge amount of quirky London information online. I think I posted about statues of cats recently. When I lived in London, I had a guide called "London for Free", which is now more than covered online.
Atlas Obscura - London:. 563 things to do.
https://www.atlasobscura.com/things-to-do/london-england
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SsccRkLLzU
Newcastle will be interesting too. I agree.
https://x.com/i/status/2038998931212804355
But it's still going to take weeks for (checks notes) China and Pakistan to sort out..
What's your timeframe ?
for something, anything.
I ran across this at the weekend; it is from an article about Chinatown in the Evening Standard when owned by the 1st Viscount Rothermere:
The Rothermere newspapers promoted a narrative of 'national degeneration'. A typical story in the Evening Standard, headlined in capital letters "WHITE GIRLS 'HYPNOTISED' BY YELLOW MEN", recounted what it called the "alarming facts" of London's Chinatown, warning in lurid detail of "the degradation of young white girls" at the hands of Chinese men: "Englishwomen are selling themselves to Chinamen; they are seeking out Asiatics in the streets where before the war no white women walked. The evil is baffling to the police and social workers. Women who have been 'rescued' and given a fresh start have relapsed and returned to their foreign masters, and have sunk even lower than before. The unmarried mother with a half-caste child is only one of the several problems arising. And obviously this cheapening of the white women among men who go down to the sea in ships must have reactions in the East and in every part of the world where colored and white races dwell side by side".
(That's from his Wikipedia article, I was looking into how the values of the Daily Mail newspapers have changed over the years since 1896 Or not.)
You'd like it higher but that's the price of Trump2.
It's a case of 🤞🤞🤞 and I join you in that.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: Iran's IRGC issues a warning that they will target 18 US technology companies if the US continues "targeted assassinations" of Iranian leaders, beginning on April 1st.
The companies include Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Intel, Oracle, IBM, Meta, Boeing, and others.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2039005890901131532
When Brighton and Brentford are considered trendsetters and forefront of data driven analysis and a colossus like Tottenham (not) are left feeding off their scraps.
If all the Clubs is Endland, what Brentford have achieved is frankly incredible and yet still massively under rated.
Up yours Donald
Close them down.
The gangs have been smashed. It’s over
Reform have stopped making noise about the small boat crossing..why? Because Labour have smashed the gangs.
Illegal Channel crossings have collapsed. See for yourself.
Promise made. Promise delivered. Labour is securing our borders.
https://x.com/ashfordlabour/status/2038919231920558237?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
No flying then no engine maintenance contract payments.
If the war continues, the World Cup will be cancelled, because the world will be in turmoil. No ifs or buts, it just won't happen. Teams will be stranded, countries will boycott the USA, insurance will become impossible, airlines will be grounded, it will be a shitshow
That would be a MASSIVE humiliation for Trump. His own precious tournament, ruined by his own impulsive stupidity
I wonder if someone has sat him down and talked him through all this. Let's hope so
Ilan Goldenberg
@ilangoldenberg
I woke up this morning with a pit in my stomach.
...
In 2019, I worked on war game scenarios with energy and security experts examining what a conflict like this could do to oil markets. Scenarios in which the Strait of Hormuz stayed shut for 4-10 weeks, estimated prices would rise to $185 to $200 per barrel. We are at around $115, but it feels to me like markets are still underreacting and waiting for a near end that isn’t coming.
https://x.com/ilangoldenberg/status/2039001047000080579
Short term it is being in the limelight. Dominating the news. In this he is very successful.
Longer term it is his legacy. The naming, the portraits, the buildings etc.
In this he is not going to be so successful. He will have a legacy but not the one he craves.
Jan. 6 rioter pardoned by Trump gets prison sentence for possessing 'enormous child pornography collection'
Daniel Tocci's attorney had previously argued that the case should be dismissed because “all the evidence" stemmed from his Capitol siege case.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/jan-6-rioter-pardoned-by-trump-sentenced-child-pornography-collection-rcna265963
When he was at OM, we had one good season then it fell apart with thumpings from Brugge and PSG in quick succession that sealed his fate. Having said that, expectations are always sky high at OM and if a manager doesn't win Ligue 1 and the CL while beating PSG home and away on the way then they're a failure.
"UFTHANSA IS THINKING ABOUT GROUNDCING 20 AIRPLANES BECAUSE OF THE WAR IN IRAN, ACCORDING TO HANDELSBLATT."
"Airlines around the world are cancelling thousands of flights after the war in Iran caused jet fuel prices to more than double.
More than one in 20 flights scheduled to take off on Monday was reportedly cancelled ⤵️"
"Excl: Britain’s hub London Heathrow is the *highest-risk* major airport in Europe for jet fuel from April 🚨 as US-Israel war on Iran continues
- Heathrow, with 1,300 flights daily, will struggle ‘the most, & the earliest’ with jet fuel as shortage worsens, & price surges 📈"
And so on, and so forth, and so on, and et cetera