Lol, getting a Trump and fellow cretins may have fucked new world order fantasies vibe.
Somebody actually "liked" your dismally stupid comment about these election victories in hugely migrant impacted French cities. Encouragingly for you, that means there is someone on here who is even fucking stupider than you. Because at least you had the basic nervous system needed to write your vastly imbecilic comment, the other person just numbly, dumbly pressed "like", like some fucking dwarf toad fiercely pooing a tiny pebble
I'm not going to name names, because that's not my style, and I don't like to laugh at the intellectually inadequate, but it was @kinabalu
If I was a Trumpite defence aide, I would think this:
America now has no choice but to
1. Seize Kharg island with actual troops
then
2. Nuke a couple of small Iranian cities, or military bases, with the clear message that the USA will destroy the entire country unless the mullahs submit
That brings a swift victory, which Trump loves, it reopens the Straits, and it sends a brutal message to Putin and Xi
(NB I am personally not in favour of this, but I am trying to see this through the lens of the Trump admin)
Alternatively they could sail a few tankers through Hormuz and see if Iran actually has any capability to stop them.
If Iran can rain down missilies on Israel's nuclear weapons site, I am pretty sure they can hit some massive clumsy tankers a few km off the Iranian coast. Or, at least, come sufficiently close to doing so, that no ship will risk it
This is becoming a final, existential war between Israel and Theocratic Iran. It very possibly ends with one or the other obliterated
So how many ships has Iran sunk so far ?
And how many ships has Iran hit with a missile so far ?
And how many ships has Iran hit with anything in the last ten days ?
For that matter how much damage has Iran managed with the 300+ missiles it has fired at Israel ?
The answers are a mix of zeros and sod alls.
Meanwhile you want to escalate from 13 US military deaths in 23 days to using nuclear weapons without taking any steps in between.
What? I specifically said:
"(NB I am personally not in favour of this, but I am trying to see this through the lens of the Trump admin)"
I am not in favour of any of this, it's a fucking disaster, and is especially menacing to some seriously enjoyable travel plans I had lined up. Really delicious freebies. I'd quite like the war to end tomorrow, with apologies to the poor brave Iranians, who would have to continue their miserable lives enslaved by arguably the nastiest regime on earth
What I am trying to do is EXTRAPOLATE, to war game, and I don't see a way that Trump avoids a fatally wounding defeat which he can't really handwave away as a "victory", unless he commits vast numbers of US ground troops. (which he sensibly will not do), OR he uses the totally dominant US air power to do the ultimate damage and humiliate Tehran, with either total carpet bombing. Or nukes
Meanwhile, Israel is cheering on the USA, and encouraging it to go all out on the Mullahs
But, pray, tell us how YOU see this panning out?
I've no idea but then I'm not one of the egomaniacs having a tantrum in any of the three countries.
I can confidently say though that going from 13 dead in 23 days to use of nuclear weapons without any intervening steps is not something any previous US administration would have ever contemplated or any US military command would have advocated.
"America now has no choice but to
1. Seize Kharg island with actual troops
then
2. Nuke a couple of small Iranian cities, or military bases, with the clear message that the USA will destroy the entire country unless the mullahs submit"
Not sure why you would have to do item 1 if you were doing item 2
AIUI that would give them tactical control of the Straits, making the nuking much more speedily effective; but also please note that I am a slightly drunk flint sex toy knapper, not a professional geopolitical MENA expert
Kharg does not give control of the Straits.
Stick to the drinking.
Yes, in effect, it does. Drink more
"Kharg island: The tiny oil hub in Persian Gulf that Trump could seize in major escalation of war against Iran"
"Kharg island holds 94 per cent of Iran’s oil exports and could choke off the country’s economy for years"
That doesn’t give control of the Strait of Hormuz .
Watch Newsnight on Friday and Tim Marshall explaining how complicated opening that up will be .
Kharg gives control of Iranian exports (although not as much as many news reports cite) but does not give control of the Straits.
If kharg is invaded then there will be even less reason for Iran to give up on fucking the world via the Straits.
It should also on be noted that Iran has gone through a period before, as a result of sanctions, when its oil revenue dropped by around 90%, from 2018 to 2020.
The regime survived that.
It might well make them try something even more stupid.
Impoverishing the populace rarely forces regime change, ask any dictator.
If I was a Trumpite defence aide, I would think this:
America now has no choice but to
1. Seize Kharg island with actual troops
then
2. Nuke a couple of small Iranian cities, or military bases, with the clear message that the USA will destroy the entire country unless the mullahs submit
That brings a swift victory, which Trump loves, it reopens the Straits, and it sends a brutal message to Putin and Xi
(NB I am personally not in favour of this, but I am trying to see this through the lens of the Trump admin)
Alternatively they could sail a few tankers through Hormuz and see if Iran actually has any capability to stop them.
If Iran can rain down missilies on Israel's nuclear weapons site, I am pretty sure they can hit some massive clumsy tankers a few km off the Iranian coast. Or, at least, come sufficiently close to doing so, that no ship will risk it
This is becoming a final, existential war between Israel and Theocratic Iran. It very possibly ends with one or the other obliterated
So how many ships has Iran sunk so far ?
And how many ships has Iran hit with a missile so far ?
And how many ships has Iran hit with anything in the last ten days ?
For that matter how much damage has Iran managed with the 300+ missiles it has fired at Israel ?
The answers are a mix of zeros and sod alls.
Meanwhile you want to escalate from 13 US military deaths in 23 days to using nuclear weapons without taking any steps in between.
What? I specifically said:
"(NB I am personally not in favour of this, but I am trying to see this through the lens of the Trump admin)"
I am not in favour of any of this, it's a fucking disaster, and is especially menacing to some seriously enjoyable travel plans I had lined up. Really delicious freebies. I'd quite like the war to end tomorrow, with apologies to the poor brave Iranians, who would have to continue their miserable lives enslaved by arguably the nastiest regime on earth
What I am trying to do is EXTRAPOLATE, to war game, and I don't see a way that Trump avoids a fatally wounding defeat which he can't really handwave away as a "victory", unless he commits vast numbers of US ground troops. (which he sensibly will not do), OR he uses the totally dominant US air power to do the ultimate damage and humiliate Tehran, with either total carpet bombing. Or nukes
Meanwhile, Israel is cheering on the USA, and encouraging it to go all out on the Mullahs
But, pray, tell us how YOU see this panning out?
I've no idea but then I'm not one of the egomaniacs having a tantrum in any of the three countries.
I can confidently say though that going from 13 dead in 23 days to use of nuclear weapons without any intervening steps is not something any previous US administration would have ever contemplated or any US military command would have advocated.
"America now has no choice but to
1. Seize Kharg island with actual troops
then
2. Nuke a couple of small Iranian cities, or military bases, with the clear message that the USA will destroy the entire country unless the mullahs submit"
Not sure why you would have to do item 1 if you were doing item 2
AIUI that would give them tactical control of the Straits, making the nuking much more speedily effective; but also please note that I am a slightly drunk flint sex toy knapper, not a professional geopolitical MENA expert
Kharg does not give control of the Straits.
Stick to the drinking.
Yes, in effect, it does. Drink more
"Kharg island: The tiny oil hub in Persian Gulf that Trump could seize in major escalation of war against Iran"
"Kharg island holds 94 per cent of Iran’s oil exports and could choke off the country’s economy for years"
That doesn’t give control of the Strait of Hormuz .
Watch Newsnight on Friday and Tim Marshall explaining how complicated opening that up will be .
Kharg gives control of Iranian exports (although not as much as many news reports cite) but does not give control of the Straits.
If kharg is invaded then there will be even less reason for Iran to give up on fucking the world via the Straits.
It should also on be noted that Iran has gone through a period before, as a result of sanctions, when its oil revenue dropped by around 90%, from 2018 to 2020.
The regime survived that.
It might well make them try something even more stupid.
Impoverishing the populace rarely forces regime change, ask any dictator.
Indeed it often reinforces state control as political connections are needed to survive.
In the Solomon vs Spence case, Alan Spence must pay gambling debts totalling more than £840,000 after a judge rejected his argument that the sums were unenforceable due to them being placed with an illegal bookmaker.
If I was a Trumpite defence aide, I would think this:
America now has no choice but to
1. Seize Kharg island with actual troops
then
2. Nuke a couple of small Iranian cities, or military bases, with the clear message that the USA will destroy the entire country unless the mullahs submit
That brings a swift victory, which Trump loves, it reopens the Straits, and it sends a brutal message to Putin and Xi
(NB I am personally not in favour of this, but I am trying to see this through the lens of the Trump admin)
Alternatively they could sail a few tankers through Hormuz and see if Iran actually has any capability to stop them.
If Iran can rain down missilies on Israel's nuclear weapons site, I am pretty sure they can hit some massive clumsy tankers a few km off the Iranian coast. Or, at least, come sufficiently close to doing so, that no ship will risk it
This is becoming a final, existential war between Israel and Theocratic Iran. It very possibly ends with one or the other obliterated
So how many ships has Iran sunk so far ?
And how many ships has Iran hit with a missile so far ?
And how many ships has Iran hit with anything in the last ten days ?
For that matter how much damage has Iran managed with the 300+ missiles it has fired at Israel ?
The answers are a mix of zeros and sod alls.
Meanwhile you want to escalate from 13 US military deaths in 23 days to using nuclear weapons without taking any steps in between.
What? I specifically said:
"(NB I am personally not in favour of this, but I am trying to see this through the lens of the Trump admin)"
I am not in favour of any of this, it's a fucking disaster, and is especially menacing to some seriously enjoyable travel plans I had lined up. Really delicious freebies. I'd quite like the war to end tomorrow, with apologies to the poor brave Iranians, who would have to continue their miserable lives enslaved by arguably the nastiest regime on earth
What I am trying to do is EXTRAPOLATE, to war game, and I don't see a way that Trump avoids a fatally wounding defeat which he can't really handwave away as a "victory", unless he commits vast numbers of US ground troops. (which he sensibly will not do), OR he uses the totally dominant US air power to do the ultimate damage and humiliate Tehran, with either total carpet bombing. Or nukes
Meanwhile, Israel is cheering on the USA, and encouraging it to go all out on the Mullahs
But, pray, tell us how YOU see this panning out?
I've no idea but then I'm not one of the egomaniacs having a tantrum in any of the three countries.
I can confidently say though that going from 13 dead in 23 days to use of nuclear weapons without any intervening steps is not something any previous US administration would have ever contemplated or any US military command would have advocated.
"America now has no choice but to
1. Seize Kharg island with actual troops
then
2. Nuke a couple of small Iranian cities, or military bases, with the clear message that the USA will destroy the entire country unless the mullahs submit"
Not sure why you would have to do item 1 if you were doing item 2
AIUI that would give them tactical control of the Straits, making the nuking much more speedily effective; but also please note that I am a slightly drunk flint sex toy knapper, not a professional geopolitical MENA expert
Kharg does not give control of the Straits.
Stick to the drinking.
Yes, in effect, it does. Drink more
"Kharg island: The tiny oil hub in Persian Gulf that Trump could seize in major escalation of war against Iran"
"Kharg island holds 94 per cent of Iran’s oil exports and could choke off the country’s economy for years"
That doesn’t give control of the Strait of Hormuz .
Watch Newsnight on Friday and Tim Marshall explaining how complicated opening that up will be .
Kharg gives control of Iranian exports (although not as much as many news reports cite) but does not give control of the Straits.
If kharg is invaded then there will be even less reason for Iran to give up on fucking the world via the Straits.
It should also on be noted that Iran has gone through a period before, as a result of sanctions, when its oil revenue dropped by around 90%, from 2018 to 2020.
The regime survived that.
It might well make them try something even more stupid.
Just this week, the USA unsanctioned Iranian oil in order to keep prices down. I do not think that stopping Iranian oil exports is a priority for Trump right now, indeed the opposite seems true.
Lol, getting a Trump and fellow cretins may have fucked new world order fantasies vibe.
Somebody actually "liked" your dismally stupid comment about these election victories in hugely migrant impacted French cities. Encouragingly for you, that means there is someone on here who is even fucking stupider than you. Because at least you had the basic nervous system needed to write your vastly imbecilic comment, the other person just numbly, dumbly pressed "like", like some fucking dwarf toad fiercely pooing a tiny pebble
I'm not going to name names, because that's not my style, and I don't like to laugh at the intellectually inadequate, but it was @kinabalu
One other casualty of the Iran war (or whatever this is) might be that those Gulf states that look to Britain for military assistance now reassess that relationship in light of the Royal Navy being down to its last warship and the RAF being a landlord for American planes.
One other casualty of the Iran war (or whatever this is) might be that those Gulf states that look to Britain for military assistance now reassess that relationship in light of the Royal Navy being down to its last warship and the RAF being a landlord for American planes.
You're not suggesting that they're no longer impressed by the British military parading around in fancy dress ?
If I was a Trumpite defence aide, I would think this:
America now has no choice but to
1. Seize Kharg island with actual troops
then
2. Nuke a couple of small Iranian cities, or military bases, with the clear message that the USA will destroy the entire country unless the mullahs submit
That brings a swift victory, which Trump loves, it reopens the Straits, and it sends a brutal message to Putin and Xi
(NB I am personally not in favour of this, but I am trying to see this through the lens of the Trump admin)
Alternatively they could sail a few tankers through Hormuz and see if Iran actually has any capability to stop them.
If Iran can rain down missilies on Israel's nuclear weapons site, I am pretty sure they can hit some massive clumsy tankers a few km off the Iranian coast. Or, at least, come sufficiently close to doing so, that no ship will risk it
This is becoming a final, existential war between Israel and Theocratic Iran. It very possibly ends with one or the other obliterated
So how many ships has Iran sunk so far ?
And how many ships has Iran hit with a missile so far ?
And how many ships has Iran hit with anything in the last ten days ?
For that matter how much damage has Iran managed with the 300+ missiles it has fired at Israel ?
The answers are a mix of zeros and sod alls.
Meanwhile you want to escalate from 13 US military deaths in 23 days to using nuclear weapons without taking any steps in between.
What? I specifically said:
"(NB I am personally not in favour of this, but I am trying to see this through the lens of the Trump admin)"
I am not in favour of any of this, it's a fucking disaster, and is especially menacing to some seriously enjoyable travel plans I had lined up. Really delicious freebies. I'd quite like the war to end tomorrow, with apologies to the poor brave Iranians, who would have to continue their miserable lives enslaved by arguably the nastiest regime on earth
What I am trying to do is EXTRAPOLATE, to war game, and I don't see a way that Trump avoids a fatally wounding defeat which he can't really handwave away as a "victory", unless he commits vast numbers of US ground troops. (which he sensibly will not do), OR he uses the totally dominant US air power to do the ultimate damage and humiliate Tehran, with either total carpet bombing. Or nukes
Meanwhile, Israel is cheering on the USA, and encouraging it to go all out on the Mullahs
But, pray, tell us how YOU see this panning out?
I've no idea but then I'm not one of the egomaniacs having a tantrum in any of the three countries.
I can confidently say though that going from 13 dead in 23 days to use of nuclear weapons without any intervening steps is not something any previous US administration would have ever contemplated or any US military command would have advocated.
"America now has no choice but to
1. Seize Kharg island with actual troops
then
2. Nuke a couple of small Iranian cities, or military bases, with the clear message that the USA will destroy the entire country unless the mullahs submit"
Not sure why you would have to do item 1 if you were doing item 2
AIUI that would give them tactical control of the Straits, making the nuking much more speedily effective; but also please note that I am a slightly drunk flint sex toy knapper, not a professional geopolitical MENA expert
Kharg does not give control of the Straits.
Stick to the drinking.
Yes, in effect, it does. Drink more
"Kharg island: The tiny oil hub in Persian Gulf that Trump could seize in major escalation of war against Iran"
"Kharg island holds 94 per cent of Iran’s oil exports and could choke off the country’s economy for years"
That doesn’t give control of the Strait of Hormuz .
Watch Newsnight on Friday and Tim Marshall explaining how complicated opening that up will be .
Kharg gives control of Iranian exports (although not as much as many news reports cite) but does not give control of the Straits.
If kharg is invaded then there will be even less reason for Iran to give up on fucking the world via the Straits.
It should also on be noted that Iran has gone through a period before, as a result of sanctions, when its oil revenue dropped by around 90%, from 2018 to 2020.
The regime survived that.
It might well make them try something even more stupid.
Impoverishing the populace rarely forces regime change, ask any dictator.
Indeed it often reinforces state control as political connections are needed to survive.
Who introduced Leon to Buckfast? I assume that's what he's imbibing to make him even more irrational and belligerent than Trump.
NAE but is not the government gaining a big tax windfall right now on fuel taxes? Why then not cut the tax rate and reduce pump costs as has happened already in Spain for example?
It looks like a few hours ago, three idiots under the impression the IDF is run from Golders Green in North London set fire to some ambulances owned by a Jewish charity.
NAE but is not the government gaining a big tax windfall right now on fuel taxes? Why then not cut the tax rate and reduce pump costs as has happened already in Spain for example?
For every 6 penny increase the Gov't gains 1p. So on diesel the gov't is pretty much getting the full tax hike pencilled in already
Lol, getting a Trump and fellow cretins may have fucked new world order fantasies vibe.
Somebody actually "liked" your dismally stupid comment about these election victories in hugely migrant impacted French cities. Encouragingly for you, that means there is someone on here who is even fucking stupider than you. Because at least you had the basic nervous system needed to write your vastly imbecilic comment, the other person just numbly, dumbly pressed "like", like some fucking dwarf toad fiercely pooing a tiny pebble
I'm not going to name names, because that's not my style, and I don't like to laugh at the intellectually inadequate, but it was @kinabalu
One other casualty of the Iran war (or whatever this is) might be that those Gulf states that look to Britain for military assistance now reassess that relationship in light of the Royal Navy being down to its last warship and the RAF being a landlord for American planes.
You're not suggesting that they're no longer impressed by the British military parading around in fancy dress ?
HMS Queen Elizabeth was anchored in Torbay over the weekend, left yesterday morning, almost in our back garden visually.
Was surprised by how relatively small it was.
Having said that it was adjacent to a fecking massive LPG Tanker that's been sat here for nearly 2 weeks.
One other casualty of the Iran war (or whatever this is) might be that those Gulf states that look to Britain for military assistance now reassess that relationship in light of the Royal Navy being down to its last warship and the RAF being a landlord for American planes.
You're not suggesting that they're no longer impressed by the British military parading around in fancy dress ?
HMS Queen Elizabeth was anchored in Torbay over the weekend, left yesterday morning, almost in our back garden visually.
Was surprised by how relatively small it was.
Having said that it was adjacent to a fecking massive LPG Tanker that's been sat here for nearly 2 weeks.
Torbay gets used a fair bit by unutilised vessels.
Not sure if you were down here for Covid, but there were maybe 6 or 7 of the largest cruise ships sat out there. On Christmas morning 2020, they all fired up their horns. It reverberated around the hills for miles...
Bit of a lost opportunity I thought - rather than a wall of sound, with a bit of effort, they could have made a stab at "I saw three ships come sailing in..."
Lol, getting a Trump and fellow cretins may have fucked new world order fantasies vibe.
Somebody actually "liked" your dismally stupid comment about these election victories in hugely migrant impacted French cities. Encouragingly for you, that means there is someone on here who is even fucking stupider than you. Because at least you had the basic nervous system needed to write your vastly imbecilic comment, the other person just numbly, dumbly pressed "like", like some fucking dwarf toad fiercely pooing a tiny pebble
I'm not going to name names, because that's not my style, and I don't like to laugh at the intellectually inadequate, but it was @kinabalu
Lol, getting a Trump and fellow cretins may have fucked new world order fantasies vibe.
Somebody actually "liked" your dismally stupid comment about these election victories in hugely migrant impacted French cities. Encouragingly for you, that means there is someone on here who is even fucking stupider than you. Because at least you had the basic nervous system needed to write your vastly imbecilic comment, the other person just numbly, dumbly pressed "like", like some fucking dwarf toad fiercely pooing a tiny pebble
I'm not going to name names, because that's not my style, and I don't like to laugh at the intellectually inadequate, but it was @kinabalu
There's no going back now, and we must all face the future, it's going to be rocky, to say the least
I've got Olcie the painter coming in early tomorrow, to do my bathroom, the penultimate big task in my year long refurb, and I have finally decided. YES: it will be Whitstable. I'm going to Whitstable, for two nights. It's all signed sealed delivered. I've booked the flat, near the beach, there is no refund, this is IT
Deep breath. Let's all stay calm
PBers are welcome to join me for oysters at Wheelers, at the Endtimes
I'm looking forward to your reports of Banksie decorating your kitchenette.
NAE but is not the government gaining a big tax windfall right now on fuel taxes? Why then not cut the tax rate and reduce pump costs as has happened already in Spain for example?
For every 6 penny increase the Gov't gains 1p. So on diesel the gov't is pretty much getting the full tax hike pencilled in already
Different tax pot though, so it probably doesn’t count
Lol, getting a Trump and fellow cretins may have fucked new world order fantasies vibe.
Somebody actually "liked" your dismally stupid comment about these election victories in hugely migrant impacted French cities. Encouragingly for you, that means there is someone on here who is even fucking stupider than you. Because at least you had the basic nervous system needed to write your vastly imbecilic comment, the other person just numbly, dumbly pressed "like", like some fucking dwarf toad fiercely pooing a tiny pebble
I'm not going to name names, because that's not my style, and I don't like to laugh at the intellectually inadequate, but it was @kinabalu
There's no going back now, and we must all face the future, it's going to be rocky, to say the least
I've got Olcie the painter coming in early tomorrow, to do my bathroom, the penultimate big task in my year long refurb, and I have finally decided. YES: it will be Whitstable. I'm going to Whitstable, for two nights. It's all signed sealed delivered. I've booked the flat, near the beach, there is no refund, this is IT
Deep breath. Let's all stay calm
PBers are welcome to join me for oysters at Wheelers, at the Endtimes
I'm looking forward to your reports of Banksie decorating your kitchenette.
USA vs Iran is going to be a tricky one for future historians to unravel using the traditional narratives.
American voters eh? Exporting mindless murder for zero gain and at immense cost to the environment.
It’s hard to wish them well.
No it's not, it's going to be dead easy. It's Trump seeking a distraction from his sexual misdemeanours, embarrassment over tariffs and the catastrophes of his immigration policy (including of course multiple murders).
He's not by any means the first US President to do this - Clinton, for example, did something similar, as arguably did McKinley - but I can't think of such an egregious and catastrophic example of it.
A useful reminder that right wing populism is less an organic outburst of popular discontent and more a well funded political project created by a few very rich men.
There's no going back now, and we must all face the future, it's going to be rocky, to say the least
I've got Olcie the painter coming in early tomorrow, to do my bathroom, the penultimate big task in my year long refurb, and I have finally decided. YES: it will be Whitstable. I'm going to Whitstable, for two nights. It's all signed sealed delivered. I've booked the flat, near the beach, there is no refund, this is IT
Deep breath. Let's all stay calm
PBers are welcome to join me for oysters at Wheelers, at the Endtimes
I'm looking forward to your reports of Banksie decorating your kitchenette.
NAE but is not the government gaining a big tax windfall right now on fuel taxes? Why then not cut the tax rate and reduce pump costs as has happened already in Spain for example?
For every 6 penny increase the Gov't gains 1p. So on diesel the gov't is pretty much getting the full tax hike pencilled in already
Yes, that's right.
But for anyone who doesn't know, the Govt only gains VAT. Fuel duty is a fixed number of pence per litre so no gain in Fuel duty.
So if net price up 5p, VAT up 1p (ie 20% of 5p) - so total price up 6p.
However the point is if the public is spending more on petrol they will be spending less on other things, so the VAT take on everything else will go down.
Now some things are zero rated but big picture is Govt may actually gain very little overall.
A useful reminder that right wing populism is less an organic outburst of popular discontent and more a well funded political project created by a few very rich men.
What would really shock you is if that exactly the same is true of the left. Except they expect the taxpayer to fork out for their predilictions too.
A useful reminder that right wing populism is less an organic outburst of popular discontent and more a well funded political project created by a few very rich men.
What would really shock you is if that exactly the same is true of the left. Except they expect the taxpayer to fork out for their predilictions too.
Ah, but it’s okay when the left does it because they’re the good guys.
A useful reminder that right wing populism is less an organic outburst of popular discontent and more a well funded political project created by a few very rich men.
What would really shock you is if that exactly the same is true of the left. Except they expect the taxpayer to fork out for their predilictions too.
Ah, but it’s okay when the left does it because they’re the good guys.
Yes, sorry I forgot that. Worth remembering when they turn your country to shit - it's all in a good cause.
We got rid of plastic straws to reduce plastic waste in the Pacific Ocean which has sod all to do with Britain. We could have directed international aid to building waste disposal industries in those countries that do just sling it all in the water, which would create jobs, increase development and, of course, reduce ocean-borne plastic, but we were cutting aid in the name of austerity or something.
NAE but is not the government gaining a big tax windfall right now on fuel taxes? Why then not cut the tax rate and reduce pump costs as has happened already in Spain for example?
For every 6 penny increase the Gov't gains 1p. So on diesel the gov't is pretty much getting the full tax hike pencilled in already
Yes, that's right.
But for anyone who doesn't know, the Govt only gains VAT. Fuel duty is a fixed number of pence per litre so no gain in Fuel duty.
So if net price up 5p, VAT up 1p (ie 20% of 5p) - so total price up 6p.
However the point is if the public is spending more on petrol they will be spending less on other things, so the VAT take on everything else will go down.
Now some things are zero rated but big picture is Govt may actually gain very little overall.
Given that so many of the basics are zero rated and that fuel is an essential for the majority of people, I think you are wrong that the Govt will gain little overall.
A useful reminder that right wing populism is less an organic outburst of popular discontent and more a well funded political project created by a few very rich men.
What would really shock you is if that exactly the same is true of the left. Except they expect the taxpayer to fork out for their predilictions too.
Ah, but it’s okay when the left does it because they’re the good guys.
Yes, sorry I forgot that. Worth remembering when they turn your country to shit - it's all in a good cause.
I'm torn about who to capitulate to in the coming struggle between the radical left and radical right (which PB assures me is inevitable). On the one hand the right would be jollier and I'd have more chance of supping a decent pint whilst watching some mandatory Morris Dancing. On the other, the radical left would have much more use for my services as a faceless bureaucrat to help run the Home Office's Public Control Department.
One other casualty of the Iran war (or whatever this is) might be that those Gulf states that look to Britain for military assistance now reassess that relationship in light of the Royal Navy being down to its last warship and the RAF being a landlord for American planes.
You're not suggesting that they're no longer impressed by the British military parading around in fancy dress ?
HMS Queen Elizabeth was anchored in Torbay over the weekend, left yesterday morning, almost in our back garden visually.
Was surprised by how relatively small it was.
Having said that it was adjacent to a fecking massive LPG Tanker that's been sat here for nearly 2 weeks.
Torbay gets used a fair bit by unutilised vessels.
Not sure if you were down here for Covid, but there were maybe 6 or 7 of the largest cruise ships sat out there. On Christmas morning 2020, they all fired up their horns. It reverberated around the hills for miles...
Bit of a lost opportunity I thought - rather than a wall of sound, with a bit of effort, they could have made a stab at "I saw three ships come sailing in..."
Indeed I was, I'm near Fishcombe and had a view across Torbay and also down the Coast, we can see Portland on a very clear day.
The Cruise Ships were the best bit of Covid
My favourite was when we had 11 in on Armistice Day 11. 11.2020 and at 11am they all sounded their horns.
It was a very still day and incredibly moving and emotional.
We said at the time, this is a one off never be repeated.
The Cruise Ships donated a lot of food to charities and in return got lots of presents off locals.
We got rid of plastic straws to reduce plastic waste in the Pacific Ocean which has sod all to do with Britain. We could have directed international aid to building waste disposal industries in those countries that do just sling it all in the water, which would create jobs, increase development and, of course, reduce ocean-borne plastic, but we were cutting aid in the name of austerity or something.
I would vote for a party that would bring back plastic straws. And pledge never to use paper leaflets to promote their cause in exchange.
We got rid of plastic straws to reduce plastic waste in the Pacific Ocean which has sod all to do with Britain. We could have directed international aid to building waste disposal industries in those countries that do just sling it all in the water, which would create jobs, increase development and, of course, reduce ocean-borne plastic, but we were cutting aid in the name of austerity or something.
I would vote for a party that would bring back plastic straws. And pledge never to use paper leaflets to promote their cause in exchange.
NAE but is not the government gaining a big tax windfall right now on fuel taxes? Why then not cut the tax rate and reduce pump costs as has happened already in Spain for example?
For every 6 penny increase the Gov't gains 1p. So on diesel the gov't is pretty much getting the full tax hike pencilled in already
Yes, that's right.
But for anyone who doesn't know, the Govt only gains VAT. Fuel duty is a fixed number of pence per litre so no gain in Fuel duty.
So if net price up 5p, VAT up 1p (ie 20% of 5p) - so total price up 6p.
However the point is if the public is spending more on petrol they will be spending less on other things, so the VAT take on everything else will go down.
Now some things are zero rated but big picture is Govt may actually gain very little overall.
Increase in taxes may not actually result in as significant (or any) increase in revenue?
Oh what a Laffer that is.
Though given fuel is an essential, and an inelastic one at that, and that other essentials are normally zero rated as fuel should be too, that's not actually true in this instance.
If I was a Trumpite defence aide, I would think this:
America now has no choice but to
1. Seize Kharg island with actual troops
then
2. Nuke a couple of small Iranian cities, or military bases, with the clear message that the USA will destroy the entire country unless the mullahs submit
That brings a swift victory, which Trump loves, it reopens the Straits, and it sends a brutal message to Putin and Xi
(NB I am personally not in favour of this, but I am trying to see this through the lens of the Trump admin)
Alternatively they could sail a few tankers through Hormuz and see if Iran actually has any capability to stop them.
If Iran can rain down missilies on Israel's nuclear weapons site, I am pretty sure they can hit some massive clumsy tankers a few km off the Iranian coast. Or, at least, come sufficiently close to doing so, that no ship will risk it
This is becoming a final, existential war between Israel and Theocratic Iran. It very possibly ends with one or the other obliterated
So how many ships has Iran sunk so far ?
And how many ships has Iran hit with a missile so far ?
And how many ships has Iran hit with anything in the last ten days ?
For that matter how much damage has Iran managed with the 300+ missiles it has fired at Israel ?
The answers are a mix of zeros and sod alls.
Meanwhile you want to escalate from 13 US military deaths in 23 days to using nuclear weapons without taking any steps in between.
24 ships hit in total by Iran since the start of the US/Israeli attacks.
Hit is not sunk.
Did every ship stay in port between 1939 and 1945 for fear of being hit ?
Should Malta have been told to surrender in 1942 rather than accept these casualties:
In 2003, Ian Malcolm listed 160 men killed on Eagle, 132 on Manchester, 52 on Nigeria, 50 on Indomitable, 24 on Cairo, five on Foresight and three men on Kenya. Merchant Navy casualties were 83 on Waimarama, eighteen on Clan Ferguson, seven on Glenorchy, five on Melbourne Star, four on Santa Elisa, one each on Deucalion, Ohio and Brisbane Star.
When the stakes are high then risks need to be taken and losses accepted.
Alternatively we could skip straight to the economic disaster and/or use of nuclear weapons as other PBers are casually discussing.
Actually in WW2 after the initial fights almost all the German ships stayed in port for exactly that reason. Same for the German fleet after Jutland in WW1. Oh and my grandfather was sunk (but survived) during Operation Pedastal. I have posted up a picture of him on here before.
The point being that you are not risking anything. You are asking for others - mostly sailors from countries completely uninvolved in this conflict - to risk their lives on your behalf because a couple of lunatics decided to start a war that no one else wanted.
If Trump is so worried about the Straits of Hormuz then let him send US warships through there guarding US crewed tankers.
You are the perfect example of an armchar warrior happy to send others to die so that you don't get inconvenienced.
I'm quite happy for the military to be used in a conflict, that they might have to risk their lives was known when they joined up.
I'm also quite happy for any non-military to be given suitable compensation for any extra risks the situation entails.
What I'm not happy about is the possibility of going straight to the economic catastrophe and/or use of nuclear weapons without anyone trying to do something beforehand.
By the way you're wrong about the German fleet staying in port in the latter halves of the world wars.
The German surface fleet mostly stayed in port (with exceptions such as the Scharnhorst at North Cape) but the German U boat fleets continued to operate aggressively and suffered huge casualties.
One other casualty of the Iran war (or whatever this is) might be that those Gulf states that look to Britain for military assistance now reassess that relationship in light of the Royal Navy being down to its last warship and the RAF being a landlord for American planes.
You're not suggesting that they're no longer impressed by the British military parading around in fancy dress ?
HMS Queen Elizabeth was anchored in Torbay over the weekend, left yesterday morning, almost in our back garden visually.
Was surprised by how relatively small it was.
Having said that it was adjacent to a fecking massive LPG Tanker that's been sat here for nearly 2 weeks.
Torbay gets used a fair bit by unutilised vessels.
Not sure if you were down here for Covid, but there were maybe 6 or 7 of the largest cruise ships sat out there. On Christmas morning 2020, they all fired up their horns. It reverberated around the hills for miles...
Bit of a lost opportunity I thought - rather than a wall of sound, with a bit of effort, they could have made a stab at "I saw three ships come sailing in..."
Indeed I was, I'm near Fishcombe and had a view across Torbay and also down the Coast, we can see Portland on a very clear day.
The Cruise Ships were the best bit of Covid
My favourite was when we had 11 in on Armistice Day 11. 11.2020 and at 11am they all sounded their horns.
It was a very still day and incredibly moving and emotional.
We said at the time, this is a one off never be repeated.
The Cruise Ships donated a lot of food to charities and in return got lots of presents off locals.
I suppose we should be grateful that at a time the US President was demanding we send our Navy into the Gulf, our Government had better priorities: protecting us from the mean streets of Torquay, Paignton and Brixham...
More confidential British data handed over to foreigners.
Not if you read the article. Palantir is processing the data but doesn’t own it
No. All that non-owned data will just be "resting" in their servers 'til the heat death of the Universe...
From the article
The FCA said that the terms of the contract meant Palantir would be a “data processor” not a “data controller” – meaning that it could only act on instruction from the regulator, which said it would retain exclusive control over the encryption keys for the most sensitive files and the data would be hosted and stored solely in the UK. Palantir will have to destroy data after completion of the contract and any intellectual property derived from the data trawling should be retained by the FCA.
We got rid of plastic straws to reduce plastic waste in the Pacific Ocean which has sod all to do with Britain. We could have directed international aid to building waste disposal industries in those countries that do just sling it all in the water, which would create jobs, increase development and, of course, reduce ocean-borne plastic, but we were cutting aid in the name of austerity or something.
I would vote for a party that would bring back plastic straws. And pledge never to use paper leaflets to promote their cause in exchange.
More confidential British data handed over to foreigners.
Not if you read the article. Palantir is processing the data but doesn’t own it
No. All that non-owned data will just be "resting" in their servers 'til the heat death of the Universe...
From the article
The FCA said that the terms of the contract meant Palantir would be a “data processor” not a “data controller” – meaning that it could only act on instruction from the regulator, which said it would retain exclusive control over the encryption keys for the most sensitive files and the data would be hosted and stored solely in the UK. Palantir will have to destroy data after completion of the contract and any intellectual property derived from the data trawling should be retained by the FCA.
Under the terms of the agreement, the scorpion has pledged not to sting the frog.
A useful reminder that right wing populism is less an organic outburst of popular discontent and more a well funded political project created by a few very rich men.
What would really shock you is if that exactly the same is true of the left. Except they expect the taxpayer to fork out for their predilictions too.
Ah, but it’s okay when the left does it because they’re the good guys.
Yes, sorry I forgot that. Worth remembering when they turn your country to shit - it's all in a good cause.
I'm torn about who to capitulate to in the coming struggle between the radical left and radical right (which PB assures me is inevitable). On the one hand the right would be jollier and I'd have more chance of supping a decent pint whilst watching some mandatory Morris Dancing. On the other, the radical left would have much more use for my services as a faceless bureaucrat to help run the Home Office's Public Control Department.
A decent Pint and Morris Dancing: Totalitarian Britain's version of Bread and Circuses.
More confidential British data handed over to foreigners.
Not if you read the article. Palantir is processing the data but doesn’t own it
The question do you trust Palantir enough that it won't sneak some of the data or the results and use it elsewhere...
That’s the question with any commercial contract. But they are probably the best (at present) in analysing data lakes so give us the best ability to identify fraudsters and insider trading.
I suspect Palantir is actually very careful with intellectual property because a bad reputation would completely undermine their business. They will absolutely take any mechanical learnings on how to do it, but won’t retain the data itself.
A useful reminder that right wing populism is less an organic outburst of popular discontent and more a well funded political project created by a few very rich men.
What would really shock you is if that exactly the same is true of the left. Except they expect the taxpayer to fork out for their predilictions too.
Interesting claim. Do you have evidence for the left-wing equivalent of this:
He said more than £130m can be traced to just four entities: Harborne, the hedge fund manager Paul Marshall, the Dubai-based investment firm Legatum and the financier Jeremy Hosking.
NAE but is not the government gaining a big tax windfall right now on fuel taxes? Why then not cut the tax rate and reduce pump costs as has happened already in Spain for example?
For every 6 penny increase the Gov't gains 1p. So on diesel the gov't is pretty much getting the full tax hike pencilled in already
Yes, that's right.
But for anyone who doesn't know, the Govt only gains VAT. Fuel duty is a fixed number of pence per litre so no gain in Fuel duty.
So if net price up 5p, VAT up 1p (ie 20% of 5p) - so total price up 6p.
However the point is if the public is spending more on petrol they will be spending less on other things, so the VAT take on everything else will go down.
Now some things are zero rated but big picture is Govt may actually gain very little overall.
Given that so many of the basics are zero rated and that fuel is an essential for the majority of people, I think you are wrong that the Govt will gain little overall.
Depends on just how severe the depression is.
I think there is an argument for a reduced tax on fuel but the consensus is it’s one of the “best” taxes to levy - unavoidable, simple, inelastic, and on personal transport highly progressive. The only better alternative is probably income tax.
Doing it in a fuel crisis makes sense short term but in the long term it’s a disaster - this sense that the government will always come to the rescue is why we are so vulnerable to crises, and why our debt is so high. £50 billion in 2022 and wr haven’t learnt the lesson.
NEW from @nytimes: Netanyahu embraced a plan by the Mossad chief to ignite a regime change uprising in Iran for a quick victory. He used it to help convince Trump to start the war — despite doubts among some senior US and Israeli officials. It was a critical flaw in war plans. https://x.com/ewong/status/2035824832772702631
There's almost as critical a flaw in that as in my plan to spend a debauched fortnight with Margot Robbie.
A useful reminder that right wing populism is less an organic outburst of popular discontent and more a well funded political project created by a few very rich men.
What would really shock you is if that exactly the same is true of the left. Except they expect the taxpayer to fork out for their predilictions too.
Interesting claim. Do you have evidence for the left-wing equivalent of this:
He said more than £130m can be traced to just four entities: Harborne, the hedge fund manager Paul Marshall, the Dubai-based investment firm Legatum and the financier Jeremy Hosking.
Don't have much time, but this is the obvious hors d'oeuvre.
George Soros's Open Society Foundations (OSF) have provided significant funding to various UK political and advocacy organisations, primarily focused on pro-EU, progressive, and social justice causes. Since the 2016 Brexit referendum, the OSF has been a major financial backer of anti-Brexit campaigns, most notably Best for Britain, which received £800,000 in total from 2017 to 2022, including a £400,000 donation in 2018 and an additional £100,000 pledged to match crowdfunding efforts. A 2024 analysis revealed that Best for Britain received $5.5 million from the OSF between 2017 and 2022.
Other key recipients include:
European Movement UK: Received £182,000. Scientists for EU: Received $42,975. The Green New Deal All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG): Funded by Soros, though now defunct. Platform London: Tasked with promoting a "worker-led energy transition" and phasing out oil and gas in the North Sea. Anti-Corruption and Responsible Tax APPG: Also funded by the OSF. Amnesty International and several UK universities, including the London School of Economics (LSE), Birkbeck, and King’s College London. Soros has also supported broader initiatives such as the Caribbean and African reparations campaign against Britain for slavery and colonialism, with the OSF helping to fund a joint study tour in Barbados in 2023. His foundation continues to fund think tanks like Chatham House and groups advocating for climate action, human rights, and democratic reform.
While UK law bans foreign donations during elections or referendums, the OSF has operated through UK-based entities, drawing criticism from political figures like the Conservatives, who have called for investigations into the funding. Soros has defended his contributions as non-partisan, aimed at public education and democratic engagement.
One other casualty of the Iran war (or whatever this is) might be that those Gulf states that look to Britain for military assistance now reassess that relationship in light of the Royal Navy being down to its last warship and the RAF being a landlord for American planes.
You're not suggesting that they're no longer impressed by the British military parading around in fancy dress ?
HMS Queen Elizabeth was anchored in Torbay over the weekend, left yesterday morning, almost in our back garden visually.
Was surprised by how relatively small it was.
Having said that it was adjacent to a fecking massive LPG Tanker that's been sat here for nearly 2 weeks.
Torbay gets used a fair bit by unutilised vessels.
Not sure if you were down here for Covid, but there were maybe 6 or 7 of the largest cruise ships sat out there. On Christmas morning 2020, they all fired up their horns. It reverberated around the hills for miles...
Bit of a lost opportunity I thought - rather than a wall of sound, with a bit of effort, they could have made a stab at "I saw three ships come sailing in..."
Indeed I was, I'm near Fishcombe and had a view across Torbay and also down the Coast, we can see Portland on a very clear day.
The Cruise Ships were the best bit of Covid
My favourite was when we had 11 in on Armistice Day 11. 11.2020 and at 11am they all sounded their horns.
It was a very still day and incredibly moving and emotional.
We said at the time, this is a one off never be repeated.
The Cruise Ships donated a lot of food to charities and in return got lots of presents off locals.
I suppose we should be grateful that at a time the US President was demanding we send our Navy into the Gulf, our Government had better priorities: protecting us from the mean streets of Torquay, Paignton and Brixham...
We often get Naval vessels in the Bay for 24 to 48 hours.
It generally means they are tracking something going up or down the Channel, most likely Russian Subs or Cargo.
We get a lot of Fishery Protection vessels in too, a German Navy one a few weeks ago, it's also a safe haven in extreme weather.
One other casualty of the Iran war (or whatever this is) might be that those Gulf states that look to Britain for military assistance now reassess that relationship in light of the Royal Navy being down to its last warship and the RAF being a landlord for American planes.
You're not suggesting that they're no longer impressed by the British military parading around in fancy dress ?
HMS Queen Elizabeth was anchored in Torbay over the weekend, left yesterday morning, almost in our back garden visually.
Was surprised by how relatively small it was.
Having said that it was adjacent to a fecking massive LPG Tanker that's been sat here for nearly 2 weeks.
Torbay gets used a fair bit by unutilised vessels.
Not sure if you were down here for Covid, but there were maybe 6 or 7 of the largest cruise ships sat out there. On Christmas morning 2020, they all fired up their horns. It reverberated around the hills for miles...
Bit of a lost opportunity I thought - rather than a wall of sound, with a bit of effort, they could have made a stab at "I saw three ships come sailing in..."
Indeed I was, I'm near Fishcombe and had a view across Torbay and also down the Coast, we can see Portland on a very clear day.
The Cruise Ships were the best bit of Covid
My favourite was when we had 11 in on Armistice Day 11. 11.2020 and at 11am they all sounded their horns.
It was a very still day and incredibly moving and emotional.
We said at the time, this is a one off never be repeated.
The Cruise Ships donated a lot of food to charities and in return got lots of presents off locals.
That's interesting. When I've shot food commercials in the UK we inevitably get crates of whatever food we are advertising and other foodstuffs used used as props and despite protesting every time we are not allowed to give any of it to local charities for reasons of health and safety.
We got rid of plastic straws to reduce plastic waste in the Pacific Ocean which has sod all to do with Britain. We could have directed international aid to building waste disposal industries in those countries that do just sling it all in the water, which would create jobs, increase development and, of course, reduce ocean-borne plastic, but we were cutting aid in the name of austerity or something.
I would vote for a party that would bring back plastic straws. And pledge never to use paper leaflets to promote their cause in exchange.
Can they use plastic leaflets.
Biodegradable ones which decay as quickly as the promises printed on them.
A useful reminder that right wing populism is less an organic outburst of popular discontent and more a well funded political project created by a few very rich men.
What would really shock you is if that exactly the same is true of the left. Except they expect the taxpayer to fork out for their predilictions too.
Interesting claim. Do you have evidence for the left-wing equivalent of this:
He said more than £130m can be traced to just four entities: Harborne, the hedge fund manager Paul Marshall, the Dubai-based investment firm Legatum and the financier Jeremy Hosking.
Don't have much time, but this is the obvious hors d'oeuvre.
George Soros's Open Society Foundations (OSF) have provided significant funding to various UK political and advocacy organisations, primarily focused on pro-EU, progressive, and social justice causes. Since the 2016 Brexit referendum, the OSF has been a major financial backer of anti-Brexit campaigns, most notably Best for Britain, which received £800,000 in total from 2017 to 2022, including a £400,000 donation in 2018 and an additional £100,000 pledged to match crowdfunding efforts. A 2024 analysis revealed that Best for Britain received $5.5 million from the OSF between 2017 and 2022.
Other key recipients include:
European Movement UK: Received £182,000. Scientists for EU: Received $42,975. The Green New Deal All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG): Funded by Soros, though now defunct. Platform London: Tasked with promoting a "worker-led energy transition" and phasing out oil and gas in the North Sea. Anti-Corruption and Responsible Tax APPG: Also funded by the OSF. Amnesty International and several UK universities, including the London School of Economics (LSE), Birkbeck, and King’s College London. Soros has also supported broader initiatives such as the Caribbean and African reparations campaign against Britain for slavery and colonialism, with the OSF helping to fund a joint study tour in Barbados in 2023. His foundation continues to fund think tanks like Chatham House and groups advocating for climate action, human rights, and democratic reform.
While UK law bans foreign donations during elections or referendums, the OSF has operated through UK-based entities, drawing criticism from political figures like the Conservatives, who have called for investigations into the funding. Soros has defended his contributions as non-partisan, aimed at public education and democratic engagement.
AI
So you'll support this, then ?
..The senior MP is calling for urgent reform as part of the government’s elections bill, including a ban on cryptocurrency donations, for media laws to cover digital and social media, and for any significant investment in a media organisation by a donor who also makes political donations to be disclosed to the Electoral Commission..
NEW from @nytimes: Netanyahu embraced a plan by the Mossad chief to ignite a regime change uprising in Iran for a quick victory. He used it to help convince Trump to start the war — despite doubts among some senior US and Israeli officials. It was a critical flaw in war plans. https://x.com/ewong/status/2035824832772702631
There's almost as critical a flaw in that as in my plan to spend a debauched fortnight with Margot Robbie.
In Whitstable.
The flaw is as much in the team of sycophants, fools and straight out loons who surround Trump.
Not one will have said "that's a really stupid plan". Or even given voice to their 'doubts'.
NAE but is not the government gaining a big tax windfall right now on fuel taxes? Why then not cut the tax rate and reduce pump costs as has happened already in Spain for example?
For every 6 penny increase the Gov't gains 1p. So on diesel the gov't is pretty much getting the full tax hike pencilled in already
Yes, that's right.
But for anyone who doesn't know, the Govt only gains VAT. Fuel duty is a fixed number of pence per litre so no gain in Fuel duty.
So if net price up 5p, VAT up 1p (ie 20% of 5p) - so total price up 6p.
However the point is if the public is spending more on petrol they will be spending less on other things, so the VAT take on everything else will go down.
Now some things are zero rated but big picture is Govt may actually gain very little overall.
Given that so many of the basics are zero rated and that fuel is an essential for the majority of people, I think you are wrong that the Govt will gain little overall.
Depends on just how severe the depression is.
I think there is an argument for a reduced tax on fuel but the consensus is it’s one of the “best” taxes to levy - unavoidable, simple, inelastic, and on personal transport highly progressive. The only better alternative is probably income tax.
Doing it in a fuel crisis makes sense short term but in the long term it’s a disaster - this sense that the government will always come to the rescue is why we are so vulnerable to crises, and why our debt is so high. £50 billion in 2022 and wr haven’t learnt the lesson.
If the gas plants get comprehensively taken out, then it will make the Covid price rises and subsequent recession look minor.
Government simply doesn't have the capacity to mitigate anything more than a relatively small, temporary price hike.
NAE but is not the government gaining a big tax windfall right now on fuel taxes? Why then not cut the tax rate and reduce pump costs as has happened already in Spain for example?
For every 6 penny increase the Gov't gains 1p. So on diesel the gov't is pretty much getting the full tax hike pencilled in already
Yes, that's right.
But for anyone who doesn't know, the Govt only gains VAT. Fuel duty is a fixed number of pence per litre so no gain in Fuel duty.
So if net price up 5p, VAT up 1p (ie 20% of 5p) - so total price up 6p.
However the point is if the public is spending more on petrol they will be spending less on other things, so the VAT take on everything else will go down.
Now some things are zero rated but big picture is Govt may actually gain very little overall.
Given that so many of the basics are zero rated and that fuel is an essential for the majority of people, I think you are wrong that the Govt will gain little overall.
Depends on just how severe the depression is.
I think there is an argument for a reduced tax on fuel but the consensus is it’s one of the “best” taxes to levy - unavoidable, simple, inelastic, and on personal transport highly progressive. The only better alternative is probably income tax.
Doing it in a fuel crisis makes sense short term but in the long term it’s a disaster - this sense that the government will always come to the rescue is why we are so vulnerable to crises, and why our debt is so high. £50 billion in 2022 and wr haven’t learnt the lesson.
If the gas plants get comprehensively taken out, then it will make the Covid price rises and subsequent recession look minor.
Government simply doesn't have the capacity to mitigate anything more than a relatively small, temporary price hike.
Two ways of reducing demand for something that is unavailable. One is the price mechanism, the other is flat-out rationing.
USA vs Iran is going to be a tricky one for future historians to unravel using the traditional narratives.
American voters eh? Exporting mindless murder for zero gain and at immense cost to the environment.
It’s hard to wish them well.
No it's not, it's going to be dead easy. It's Trump seeking a distraction from his sexual misdemeanours, embarrassment over tariffs and the catastrophes of his immigration policy (including of course multiple murders).
He's not by any means the first US President to do this - Clinton, for example, did something similar, as arguably did McKinley - but I can't think of such an egregious and catastrophic example of it.
Fair.
I’m letting my anger override my kindness. Nevertheless, ‘serial rapist’ is a red flag in most people’s preferences.
Other countries @kinabalu https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493693/#Comment_5493693 You said you were "...particularly interested in how other countries have reached an accepted MO on this. My sense is we're making a bit of a meal of it in the UK. I gather this aspect might be discussed in the appendix material which I haven't yet read but plan to..." It's not in the appendices. The focus of this article was on GB. I can do another article covering Europe broadly defined (EU? EEA? CoE?) and say four to six criteria, so that's 46+1 rows and 6+1 columns. Should take me six months to a year.
Four flashpoints @solarflare https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493754/#Comment_5493754 I take your point about the focus on toilets. There are four points of conflict regarding trans: toilets, hospitals, prisons and sports. The SC Judgment has resolved the issue in the negative: access is dictated by "biological sex", which I think is coterminous with birth sex and does not take GRC/hormones/surgery/present genitals into account. It wasn't the way I would have done it, but the SC did do it and it has the virtue of simplicity.
FTMs in womens' toilets @bondegezou https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493909/#Comment_5493909 You said that "The big that confuses me is… if you are a male-presenting transman, you are not allowed to use the men’s toilets, but you’re also not allowed to use the women’s toilets?" The answer is yes, that is correct. Sections 13.5.5 and 13.5.6 of the interim guidance says this explicitly. See Appendix 12b and worked examples one and two in the article appendices.
UK Census 2020s @bondegezou https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493586#Comment_5493586 Regarding the census figures: the figures have been downgraded at lower levels but the Office for Statistical Regulation (the statistical cops: ONS do the work, OSR are the cops, UKSA holds the reins and the National Statistician is God) still insists the 0.5% figure is valid for GB as a whole, not least because it broadly matches the Canadian census and the Scottish census (the UK census is a combination of three censuses: NI, SCO, E&W). See here and here
Jolyon you're drunk: go home @DavidL https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493594#Comment_5493594 Yes you are right that GLP v EHRC resolved the ambiguity regarding toilets...by confirming service provider and workplace toilets are affected by FWS. Jolyon also was told that GLP did not have standing, and if memory serves the case cited by the judge was the *previous* time he was told GLP does not have standing. So he is making records, albeit not the ones he wants.
Intro This is the latest in a series of articles by me. They fall into three broad camps: the Measurement Series, about how we measure political concepts, the Ideas series, about current political concepts, and the Chronicle of a Bet Foretold series, about the logistics of betting wrt specific election. Some were lost after the reorganisation, but those that are recoverable include the following (the numbers are the number of comments)
Part 1: the war of ideas (tracking the rise and fall of specific terminology over time: see Robert Reilly for warfare examples)
Part 2: a sequel to the History of Gambling article, placing trans in the context of similar concepts (gambling, male homosexuality, drugs) and how these are resolved over time,
Part 3: archetypes, being a discussion of how archetypes (the wealthy sybarite, the overproviding doctor, the jumped-up pantry boy, etc) recur over the centuries.
I thought Part 1 was all sorted out in my head but this twitter - https://x.com/EsquireKin92774 - makes me think the Twitter consensus mangles American and British history into a telepod accident, so the research for that now exceeds a year, so don't expect these any time soon. I'll replace Part 1 (temporarily, honest) with my answers to @kinabalu and @RochdalePioneers' questions above.
Response to comments, part 8: next steps (non-trans)
To-do list
DLC extras: I promised to extend/correct previous articles with suggestions from the comments. It's about time I did
Keminaissance or Kemiabsence: how the timing of poll releases with different hose effects and the use of LOESS curves may have given a misleading impression of Conservative chances since KB became LOTO
Sumption Trilogy. I've completed my read and notes for two of Sumption's books, and I now have to do the third. At least one will be an article
Thank you for all the comments, good and bad. Please do not reply to the "Response to comments" comments, because the use of the "@" will mean that lots of people will be notified.
Comments
I'm not going to name names, because that's not my style, and I don't like to laugh at the intellectually inadequate, but it was @kinabalu
In the Solomon vs Spence case, Alan Spence must pay gambling debts totalling more than £840,000 after a judge rejected his argument that the sums were unenforceable due to them being placed with an illegal bookmaker.
Judgment at https://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/Ch/2026/645.html
Anyway zzzzzz
Goodnight hackneyed reactionary tripe merchant.
American voters eh? Exporting mindless murder for zero gain and at immense cost to the environment.
It’s hard to wish them well.
I assume that's what he's imbibing to make him even more irrational and belligerent than Trump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScnR5CLKkhI
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyj1p49gdpo
It looks like a few hours ago, three idiots under the impression the IDF is run from Golders Green in North London set fire to some ambulances owned by a Jewish charity.
Was surprised by how relatively small it was.
Having said that it was adjacent to a fecking massive LPG Tanker that's been sat here for nearly 2 weeks.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/mar/22/palantir-extends-reach-into-british-state-as-it-gets-access-to-sensitive-fca-data
More confidential British data handed over to foreigners.
Not sure if you were down here for Covid, but there were maybe 6 or 7 of the largest cruise ships sat out there. On Christmas morning 2020, they all fired up their horns. It reverberated around the hills for miles...
Bit of a lost opportunity I thought - rather than a wall of sound, with a bit of effort, they could have made a stab at "I saw three ships come sailing in..."
City hall veteran beats rightwinger Rachida Dati in French capital, while far-right RN fails to win Marseille and Toulon in French local elections
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/22/paris-mayoral-race-socialist-emmanuel-gregoire-projected-to-win
And your weekend away in Goole.
He's not by any means the first US President to do this - Clinton, for example, did something similar, as arguably did McKinley - but I can't think of such an egregious and catastrophic example of it.
Expect more of this.
Not great for the planet but at least we have got rid of plastic straws in the UK
https://x.com/javierblas/status/2035855056419901612?s=61
A useful reminder that right wing populism is less an organic outburst of popular discontent and more a well funded political project created by a few very rich men.
But for anyone who doesn't know, the Govt only gains VAT. Fuel duty is a fixed number of pence per litre so no gain in Fuel duty.
So if net price up 5p, VAT up 1p (ie 20% of 5p) - so total price up 6p.
However the point is if the public is spending more on petrol they will be spending less on other things, so the VAT take on everything else will go down.
Now some things are zero rated but big picture is Govt may actually gain very little overall.
The Cruise Ships were the best bit of Covid
My favourite was when we had 11 in on Armistice Day 11. 11.2020 and at 11am they all sounded their horns.
It was a very still day and incredibly moving and emotional.
We said at the time, this is a one off never be repeated.
The Cruise Ships donated a lot of food to charities and in return got lots of presents off locals.
Oh what a Laffer that is.
Though given fuel is an essential, and an inelastic one at that, and that other essentials are normally zero rated as fuel should be too, that's not actually true in this instance.
The FCA said that the terms of the contract meant Palantir would be a “data processor” not a “data controller” – meaning that it could only act on instruction from the regulator, which said it would retain exclusive control over the encryption keys for the most sensitive files and the data would be hosted and stored solely in the UK. Palantir will have to destroy data after completion of the contract and any intellectual property derived from the data trawling should be retained by the FCA.
I suspect Palantir is actually very careful with intellectual property because a bad reputation would completely undermine their business. They will absolutely take any mechanical learnings on how to do it, but won’t retain the data itself.
NEW THREAD
He said more than £130m can be traced to just four entities: Harborne, the hedge fund manager Paul Marshall, the Dubai-based investment firm Legatum and the financier Jeremy Hosking.
I think there is an argument for a reduced tax on fuel but the consensus is it’s one of the “best” taxes to levy - unavoidable, simple, inelastic, and on personal transport highly progressive. The only better alternative is probably income tax.
Doing it in a fuel crisis makes sense short term but in the long term it’s a disaster - this sense that the government will always come to the rescue is why we are so vulnerable to crises, and why our debt is so high. £50 billion in 2022 and wr haven’t learnt the lesson.
In Whitstable.
Other key recipients include:
European Movement UK: Received £182,000.
Scientists for EU: Received $42,975.
The Green New Deal All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG): Funded by Soros, though now defunct.
Platform London: Tasked with promoting a "worker-led energy transition" and phasing out oil and gas in the North Sea.
Anti-Corruption and Responsible Tax APPG: Also funded by the OSF.
Amnesty International and several UK universities, including the London School of Economics (LSE), Birkbeck, and King’s College London.
Soros has also supported broader initiatives such as the Caribbean and African reparations campaign against Britain for slavery and colonialism, with the OSF helping to fund a joint study tour in Barbados in 2023. His foundation continues to fund think tanks like Chatham House and groups advocating for climate action, human rights, and democratic reform.
While UK law bans foreign donations during elections or referendums, the OSF has operated through UK-based entities, drawing criticism from political figures like the Conservatives, who have called for investigations into the funding. Soros has defended his contributions as non-partisan, aimed at public education and democratic engagement.
AI
It generally means they are tracking something going up or down the Channel, most likely Russian Subs or Cargo.
We get a lot of Fishery Protection vessels in too, a German Navy one a few weeks ago, it's also a safe haven in extreme weather.
..The senior MP is calling for urgent reform as part of the government’s elections bill, including a ban on cryptocurrency donations, for media laws to cover digital and social media, and for any significant investment in a media organisation by a donor who also makes political donations to be disclosed to the Electoral Commission..
Not one will have said "that's a really stupid plan". Or even given voice to their 'doubts'.
Government simply doesn't have the capacity to mitigate anything more than a relatively small, temporary price hike.
No, I don't like those ideas either.
I’m letting my anger override my kindness. Nevertheless, ‘serial rapist’ is a red flag in most people’s preferences.
Thank complimentors
@DavidL, @bondegezou, @Richard_Tyndall, @MattW, @Theuniondivvie, @Casino_Royale, @stodge, @Cicero, @Sunil_Prasannan, @DecrepiterJohnL, @noneoftheabove, @malmesbury, @Stuartinromford, @MoonRabbit , @StillWaters, @rottenborough, @Mexicanpete, @AnneJGP, @Luckyguy1983,
Thank you for the complimentary comments. Other comments or questions are dealt with below. Apologies to anybody I missed.
Answered questions
Some of you (@Richard_Tyndall, @Taz, @Nigelb) asked questions that I answered in the comments
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493640/#Comment_5493640
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493647/#Comment_5493647
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493654/#Comment_5493654
Ensurgeried individuals
@RochdalePioneers, @malcolmg, @Luckyguy1983
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493636/#Comment_5493636
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493699/#Comment_5493699
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493748/#Comment_5493748
You expressed a belief that MTF transsexuals who have had their genitals removed and reconfigured should be allowed to use women's toilets. I agree, but IIUC the law post-FWS states that this is not allowed. Women's toilets are reserved to "biological women" and that phrase is used as coterminous with birth sex and does not take GRC/hormones/surgery/present genitals into account. It may be that future case or legislative law may alter that, but I'm really not betting on it. I can't re-read the SC judgement, the Interim Guidance, GLPvsEHRC and the three tribunals quickly, so I'll reread them over the next month or two and if I've made a mistake I will tell you.
Other countries
@kinabalu
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493693/#Comment_5493693
You said you were "...particularly interested in how other countries have reached an accepted MO on this. My sense is we're making a bit of a meal of it in the UK. I gather this aspect might be discussed in the appendix material which I haven't yet read but plan to..."
It's not in the appendices. The focus of this article was on GB. I can do another article covering Europe broadly defined (EU? EEA? CoE?) and say four to six criteria, so that's 46+1 rows and 6+1 columns. Should take me six months to a year.
Crossing (2024)
@Xtrain
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493631#Comment_5493631
Thank you for mentioning "Crossing". I don't do arthouse these days but I'm sure somebody will like it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossing_(2024_film)
Four flashpoints
@solarflare
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493754/#Comment_5493754
I take your point about the focus on toilets. There are four points of conflict regarding trans: toilets, hospitals, prisons and sports. The SC Judgment has resolved the issue in the negative: access is dictated by "biological sex", which I think is coterminous with birth sex and does not take GRC/hormones/surgery/present genitals into account. It wasn't the way I would have done it, but the SC did do it and it has the virtue of simplicity.
Word limit
@StillWaters
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493738/#Comment_5493738
I take your point that the "must" in section 2 should have been "must as the law stands", but I was really banging up against the word limit.
Comment uncertain
@algarkirk
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5494061/#Comment_5494061
Thank you for your comment but I'm not sure how the article can be changed to accomodate it
FTMs in womens' toilets
@bondegezou
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493909/#Comment_5493909
You said that "The big that confuses me is… if you are a male-presenting transman, you are not allowed to use the men’s toilets, but you’re also not allowed to use the women’s toilets?"
The answer is yes, that is correct. Sections 13.5.5 and 13.5.6 of the interim guidance says this explicitly. See Appendix 12b and worked examples one and two in the article appendices.
UK Census 2020s
@bondegezou
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493586#Comment_5493586
Regarding the census figures: the figures have been downgraded at lower levels but the Office for Statistical Regulation (the statistical cops: ONS do the work, OSR are the cops, UKSA holds the reins and the National Statistician is God) still insists the 0.5% figure is valid for GB as a whole, not least because it broadly matches the Canadian census and the Scottish census (the UK census is a combination of three censuses: NI, SCO, E&W). See here and here
Jolyon you're drunk: go home
@DavidL
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493594#Comment_5493594
Yes you are right that GLP v EHRC resolved the ambiguity regarding toilets...by confirming service provider and workplace toilets are affected by FWS. Jolyon also was told that GLP did not have standing, and if memory serves the case cited by the judge was the *previous* time he was told GLP does not have standing. So he is making records, albeit not the ones he wants.
Judgment vs Judgement
@DecrepiterJohnL
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5493663#Comment_5493663
Damn, I didn't know Court judgments are normally spelled without the ‘e’ (judgment not judgement). I don't know if the text can be changed but I will pursue.
Intro
This is the latest in a series of articles by me. They fall into three broad camps: the Measurement Series, about how we measure political concepts, the Ideas series, about current political concepts, and the Chronicle of a Bet Foretold series, about the logistics of betting wrt specific election. Some were lost after the reorganisation, but those that are recoverable include the following (the numbers are the number of comments)
Chronicle of a Bet Foretold
CBF1_EUDEPARTURE https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/24/viewcode-on-the-chronicle-of-a-bet-foretold/ 539
CBF2_ALTERNATES https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/09/22/chronicle-of-a-bet-foretold-part-2/ 490
CBF3_FINLAND https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/21/finland/ 383
CBF4_THINGRUEL https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/07/02/chronicle-of-a-bet-foretold-thin-gruel/ 726
The Ideas series
IDE1_UKRAINE https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/05/02/why-ukraine-was-particularly-vulnerable/ 555
IDE2_INTERMARIUM https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/29/the-intermarium/ 372
IDE3_CEREMONIES https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/05/06/ceremonies/ 811
IDE4_TRANSHUMANISM https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/04/07/transhumanism/ 501
IDE5_HISTORY https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/04/21/the-history-of-gambling/ 359
IDE5_SOLARPUNK https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/05/12/solarpunk/ 271
IDE6_BLOB https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/09/28/the-blob/ 346
IDE7_HELL https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/11/29/hell/ 559
IDE8_BRITAIN https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/03/30/the-matter-of-britain/ 512
IDE9_HYPERLIBERALISM https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/04/27/hyperliberalism/ 317
IDE10_YOURFRIENDSUSAN https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/03/22/your-friend-susan/ 769
The Measurement series
MEA1_CLASSIFICATION https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/07/classification/ 369
MEA2_ELITES https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/13/elites/ 511
MEA3_PARTIES https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/06/05/parties/ 2078
Other
REV1_BADBOYS https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/09/15/the-bad-boys-of-brexit-a-review/ 500
REV2_NATIONALPOPULISM https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/10/06/national-populism-the-revolt-against-liberal-democracy-a-review/ 264
If I have missed any, let me know.
My original intention was to write a series thus
Series
- Part 0: your friend Susan
- Part 1: the war of ideas (tracking the rise and fall of specific terminology over time: see Robert Reilly for warfare examples)
- Part 2: a sequel to the History of Gambling article, placing trans in the context of similar concepts (gambling, male homosexuality, drugs) and how these are resolved over time,
- Part 3: archetypes, being a discussion of how archetypes (the wealthy sybarite, the overproviding doctor, the jumped-up pantry boy, etc) recur over the centuries.
I thought Part 1 was all sorted out in my head but this twitter - https://x.com/EsquireKin92774 - makes me think the Twitter consensus mangles American and British history into a telepod accident, so the research for that now exceeds a year, so don't expect these any time soon. I'll replace Part 1 (temporarily, honest) with my answers to @kinabalu and @RochdalePioneers' questions above.To-do list
Things I should do, want to do, but probably won't
Thank you for all the comments, good and bad. Please do not reply to the "Response to comments" comments, because the use of the "@" will mean that lots of people will be notified.
And here's to the next article...
[@rcs1000, @TheScreamingEagles , you can now close this article if you wish]