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  • LeonLeon Posts: 67,228
    edited March 22

    ..

    Leon said:

    Against the narrative.

    The French left wins all three metropolitan cities

    Paris, Lyon, Marseille

    https://x.com/nassreddin2002/status/2035806273891954946?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Utter moron
    Lol, getting a Trump and fellow cretins may have fucked new world order fantasies vibe.
    Somebody actually "liked" your dismally stupid comment about these election victories in hugely migrant impacted French cities. Encouragingly for you, that means there is someone on here who is even fucking stupider than you. Because at least you had the basic nervous system needed to write your vastly imbecilic comment, the other person just numbly, dumbly pressed "like", like some fucking dwarf toad fiercely pooing a tiny pebble

    I'm not going to name names, because that's not my style, and I don't like to laugh at the intellectually inadequate, but it was @kinabalu
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,445
    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    If I was a Trumpite defence aide, I would think this:

    America now has no choice but to

    1. Seize Kharg island with actual troops

    then

    2. Nuke a couple of small Iranian cities, or military bases, with the clear message that the USA will destroy the entire country unless the mullahs submit

    That brings a swift victory, which Trump loves, it reopens the Straits, and it sends a brutal message to Putin and Xi

    (NB I am personally not in favour of this, but I am trying to see this through the lens of the Trump admin)

    Alternatively they could sail a few tankers through Hormuz and see if Iran actually has any capability to stop them.
    If Iran can rain down missilies on Israel's nuclear weapons site, I am pretty sure they can hit some massive clumsy tankers a few km off the Iranian coast. Or, at least, come sufficiently close to doing so, that no ship will risk it

    This is becoming a final, existential war between Israel and Theocratic Iran. It very possibly ends with one or the other obliterated

    So how many ships has Iran sunk so far ?

    And how many ships has Iran hit with a missile so far ?

    And how many ships has Iran hit with anything in the last ten days ?

    For that matter how much damage has Iran managed with the 300+ missiles it has fired at Israel ?

    The answers are a mix of zeros and sod alls.

    Meanwhile you want to escalate from 13 US military deaths in 23 days to using nuclear weapons without taking any steps in between.
    What? I specifically said:

    "(NB I am personally not in favour of this, but I am trying to see this through the lens of the Trump admin)"

    I am not in favour of any of this, it's a fucking disaster, and is especially menacing to some seriously enjoyable travel plans I had lined up. Really delicious freebies. I'd quite like the war to end tomorrow, with apologies to the poor brave Iranians, who would have to continue their miserable lives enslaved by arguably the nastiest regime on earth

    What I am trying to do is EXTRAPOLATE, to war game, and I don't see a way that Trump avoids a fatally wounding defeat which he can't really handwave away as a "victory", unless he commits vast numbers of US ground troops. (which he sensibly will not do), OR he uses the totally dominant US air power to do the ultimate damage and humiliate Tehran, with either total carpet bombing. Or nukes

    Meanwhile, Israel is cheering on the USA, and encouraging it to go all out on the Mullahs

    But, pray, tell us how YOU see this panning out?


    I've no idea but then I'm not one of the egomaniacs having a tantrum in any of the three countries.

    I can confidently say though that going from 13 dead in 23 days to use of nuclear weapons without any intervening steps is not something any previous US administration would have ever contemplated or any US military command would have advocated.
    "America now has no choice but to

    1. Seize Kharg island with actual troops

    then

    2. Nuke a couple of small Iranian cities, or military bases, with the clear message that the USA will destroy the entire country unless the mullahs submit"

    Not sure why you would have to do item 1 if you were doing item 2
    AIUI that would give them tactical control of the Straits, making the nuking much more speedily effective; but also please note that I am a slightly drunk flint sex toy knapper, not a professional geopolitical MENA expert
    Kharg does not give control of the Straits.

    Stick to the drinking.

    Yes, in effect, it does. Drink more


    "Kharg island: The tiny oil hub in Persian Gulf that Trump could seize in major escalation of war against Iran"

    "Kharg island holds 94 per cent of Iran’s oil exports and could choke off the country’s economy for years"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-kharg-island-oil-size-trump-ground-troops-b2943072.html
    That doesn’t give control of the Strait of Hormuz .

    Watch Newsnight on Friday and Tim Marshall explaining how complicated opening that up will be .
    Kharg gives control of Iranian exports (although not as much as many news reports cite) but does not give control of the Straits.

    If kharg is invaded then there will be even less reason for Iran to give up on fucking the world via the Straits.

    It should also on be noted that Iran has gone through a period before, as a result of sanctions, when its oil revenue dropped by around 90%, from 2018 to 2020.

    The regime survived that.

    It might well make them try something even more stupid.
    Impoverishing the populace rarely forces regime change, ask any dictator.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,673

    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    If I was a Trumpite defence aide, I would think this:

    America now has no choice but to

    1. Seize Kharg island with actual troops

    then

    2. Nuke a couple of small Iranian cities, or military bases, with the clear message that the USA will destroy the entire country unless the mullahs submit

    That brings a swift victory, which Trump loves, it reopens the Straits, and it sends a brutal message to Putin and Xi

    (NB I am personally not in favour of this, but I am trying to see this through the lens of the Trump admin)

    Alternatively they could sail a few tankers through Hormuz and see if Iran actually has any capability to stop them.
    If Iran can rain down missilies on Israel's nuclear weapons site, I am pretty sure they can hit some massive clumsy tankers a few km off the Iranian coast. Or, at least, come sufficiently close to doing so, that no ship will risk it

    This is becoming a final, existential war between Israel and Theocratic Iran. It very possibly ends with one or the other obliterated

    So how many ships has Iran sunk so far ?

    And how many ships has Iran hit with a missile so far ?

    And how many ships has Iran hit with anything in the last ten days ?

    For that matter how much damage has Iran managed with the 300+ missiles it has fired at Israel ?

    The answers are a mix of zeros and sod alls.

    Meanwhile you want to escalate from 13 US military deaths in 23 days to using nuclear weapons without taking any steps in between.
    What? I specifically said:

    "(NB I am personally not in favour of this, but I am trying to see this through the lens of the Trump admin)"

    I am not in favour of any of this, it's a fucking disaster, and is especially menacing to some seriously enjoyable travel plans I had lined up. Really delicious freebies. I'd quite like the war to end tomorrow, with apologies to the poor brave Iranians, who would have to continue their miserable lives enslaved by arguably the nastiest regime on earth

    What I am trying to do is EXTRAPOLATE, to war game, and I don't see a way that Trump avoids a fatally wounding defeat which he can't really handwave away as a "victory", unless he commits vast numbers of US ground troops. (which he sensibly will not do), OR he uses the totally dominant US air power to do the ultimate damage and humiliate Tehran, with either total carpet bombing. Or nukes

    Meanwhile, Israel is cheering on the USA, and encouraging it to go all out on the Mullahs

    But, pray, tell us how YOU see this panning out?


    I've no idea but then I'm not one of the egomaniacs having a tantrum in any of the three countries.

    I can confidently say though that going from 13 dead in 23 days to use of nuclear weapons without any intervening steps is not something any previous US administration would have ever contemplated or any US military command would have advocated.
    "America now has no choice but to

    1. Seize Kharg island with actual troops

    then

    2. Nuke a couple of small Iranian cities, or military bases, with the clear message that the USA will destroy the entire country unless the mullahs submit"

    Not sure why you would have to do item 1 if you were doing item 2
    AIUI that would give them tactical control of the Straits, making the nuking much more speedily effective; but also please note that I am a slightly drunk flint sex toy knapper, not a professional geopolitical MENA expert
    Kharg does not give control of the Straits.

    Stick to the drinking.

    Yes, in effect, it does. Drink more


    "Kharg island: The tiny oil hub in Persian Gulf that Trump could seize in major escalation of war against Iran"

    "Kharg island holds 94 per cent of Iran’s oil exports and could choke off the country’s economy for years"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-kharg-island-oil-size-trump-ground-troops-b2943072.html
    That doesn’t give control of the Strait of Hormuz .

    Watch Newsnight on Friday and Tim Marshall explaining how complicated opening that up will be .
    Kharg gives control of Iranian exports (although not as much as many news reports cite) but does not give control of the Straits.

    If kharg is invaded then there will be even less reason for Iran to give up on fucking the world via the Straits.

    It should also on be noted that Iran has gone through a period before, as a result of sanctions, when its oil revenue dropped by around 90%, from 2018 to 2020.

    The regime survived that.

    It might well make them try something even more stupid.
    Impoverishing the populace rarely forces regime change, ask any dictator.
    Indeed it often reinforces state control as political connections are needed to survive.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,445
    Betting news & Legal news.

    In the Solomon vs Spence case, Alan Spence must pay gambling debts totalling more than £840,000 after a judge rejected his argument that the sums were unenforceable due to them being placed with an illegal bookmaker.

    Judgment at https://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/Ch/2026/645.html
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,673
    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    If I was a Trumpite defence aide, I would think this:

    America now has no choice but to

    1. Seize Kharg island with actual troops

    then

    2. Nuke a couple of small Iranian cities, or military bases, with the clear message that the USA will destroy the entire country unless the mullahs submit

    That brings a swift victory, which Trump loves, it reopens the Straits, and it sends a brutal message to Putin and Xi

    (NB I am personally not in favour of this, but I am trying to see this through the lens of the Trump admin)

    Alternatively they could sail a few tankers through Hormuz and see if Iran actually has any capability to stop them.
    If Iran can rain down missilies on Israel's nuclear weapons site, I am pretty sure they can hit some massive clumsy tankers a few km off the Iranian coast. Or, at least, come sufficiently close to doing so, that no ship will risk it

    This is becoming a final, existential war between Israel and Theocratic Iran. It very possibly ends with one or the other obliterated

    So how many ships has Iran sunk so far ?

    And how many ships has Iran hit with a missile so far ?

    And how many ships has Iran hit with anything in the last ten days ?

    For that matter how much damage has Iran managed with the 300+ missiles it has fired at Israel ?

    The answers are a mix of zeros and sod alls.

    Meanwhile you want to escalate from 13 US military deaths in 23 days to using nuclear weapons without taking any steps in between.
    What? I specifically said:

    "(NB I am personally not in favour of this, but I am trying to see this through the lens of the Trump admin)"

    I am not in favour of any of this, it's a fucking disaster, and is especially menacing to some seriously enjoyable travel plans I had lined up. Really delicious freebies. I'd quite like the war to end tomorrow, with apologies to the poor brave Iranians, who would have to continue their miserable lives enslaved by arguably the nastiest regime on earth

    What I am trying to do is EXTRAPOLATE, to war game, and I don't see a way that Trump avoids a fatally wounding defeat which he can't really handwave away as a "victory", unless he commits vast numbers of US ground troops. (which he sensibly will not do), OR he uses the totally dominant US air power to do the ultimate damage and humiliate Tehran, with either total carpet bombing. Or nukes

    Meanwhile, Israel is cheering on the USA, and encouraging it to go all out on the Mullahs

    But, pray, tell us how YOU see this panning out?


    I've no idea but then I'm not one of the egomaniacs having a tantrum in any of the three countries.

    I can confidently say though that going from 13 dead in 23 days to use of nuclear weapons without any intervening steps is not something any previous US administration would have ever contemplated or any US military command would have advocated.
    "America now has no choice but to

    1. Seize Kharg island with actual troops

    then

    2. Nuke a couple of small Iranian cities, or military bases, with the clear message that the USA will destroy the entire country unless the mullahs submit"

    Not sure why you would have to do item 1 if you were doing item 2
    AIUI that would give them tactical control of the Straits, making the nuking much more speedily effective; but also please note that I am a slightly drunk flint sex toy knapper, not a professional geopolitical MENA expert
    Kharg does not give control of the Straits.

    Stick to the drinking.

    Yes, in effect, it does. Drink more


    "Kharg island: The tiny oil hub in Persian Gulf that Trump could seize in major escalation of war against Iran"

    "Kharg island holds 94 per cent of Iran’s oil exports and could choke off the country’s economy for years"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-kharg-island-oil-size-trump-ground-troops-b2943072.html
    That doesn’t give control of the Strait of Hormuz .

    Watch Newsnight on Friday and Tim Marshall explaining how complicated opening that up will be .
    Kharg gives control of Iranian exports (although not as much as many news reports cite) but does not give control of the Straits.

    If kharg is invaded then there will be even less reason for Iran to give up on fucking the world via the Straits.

    It should also on be noted that Iran has gone through a period before, as a result of sanctions, when its oil revenue dropped by around 90%, from 2018 to 2020.

    The regime survived that.

    It might well make them try something even more stupid.
    Just this week, the USA unsanctioned Iranian oil in order to keep prices down. I do not think that stopping Iranian oil exports is a priority for Trump right now, indeed the opposite seems true.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,619
    Leon said:

    ..

    Leon said:

    Against the narrative.

    The French left wins all three metropolitan cities

    Paris, Lyon, Marseille

    https://x.com/nassreddin2002/status/2035806273891954946?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Utter moron
    Lol, getting a Trump and fellow cretins may have fucked new world order fantasies vibe.
    Somebody actually "liked" your dismally stupid comment about these election victories in hugely migrant impacted French cities. Encouragingly for you, that means there is someone on here who is even fucking stupider than you. Because at least you had the basic nervous system needed to write your vastly imbecilic comment, the other person just numbly, dumbly pressed "like", like some fucking dwarf toad fiercely pooing a tiny pebble

    I'm not going to name names, because that's not my style, and I don't like to laugh at the intellectually inadequate, but it was @kinabalu
    "obliterated" ... chuckle

    Anyway zzzzzz

    Goodnight hackneyed reactionary tripe merchant.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,445
    One other casualty of the Iran war (or whatever this is) might be that those Gulf states that look to Britain for military assistance now reassess that relationship in light of the Royal Navy being down to its last warship and the RAF being a landlord for American planes.
  • USA vs Iran is going to be a tricky one for future historians to unravel using the traditional narratives.

    American voters eh? Exporting mindless murder for zero gain and at immense cost to the environment.

    It’s hard to wish them well.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,103

    One other casualty of the Iran war (or whatever this is) might be that those Gulf states that look to Britain for military assistance now reassess that relationship in light of the Royal Navy being down to its last warship and the RAF being a landlord for American planes.

    You're not suggesting that they're no longer impressed by the British military parading around in fancy dress ?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,550
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    If I was a Trumpite defence aide, I would think this:

    America now has no choice but to

    1. Seize Kharg island with actual troops

    then

    2. Nuke a couple of small Iranian cities, or military bases, with the clear message that the USA will destroy the entire country unless the mullahs submit

    That brings a swift victory, which Trump loves, it reopens the Straits, and it sends a brutal message to Putin and Xi

    (NB I am personally not in favour of this, but I am trying to see this through the lens of the Trump admin)

    Alternatively they could sail a few tankers through Hormuz and see if Iran actually has any capability to stop them.
    If Iran can rain down missilies on Israel's nuclear weapons site, I am pretty sure they can hit some massive clumsy tankers a few km off the Iranian coast. Or, at least, come sufficiently close to doing so, that no ship will risk it

    This is becoming a final, existential war between Israel and Theocratic Iran. It very possibly ends with one or the other obliterated

    So how many ships has Iran sunk so far ?

    And how many ships has Iran hit with a missile so far ?

    And how many ships has Iran hit with anything in the last ten days ?

    For that matter how much damage has Iran managed with the 300+ missiles it has fired at Israel ?

    The answers are a mix of zeros and sod alls.

    Meanwhile you want to escalate from 13 US military deaths in 23 days to using nuclear weapons without taking any steps in between.
    What? I specifically said:

    "(NB I am personally not in favour of this, but I am trying to see this through the lens of the Trump admin)"

    I am not in favour of any of this, it's a fucking disaster, and is especially menacing to some seriously enjoyable travel plans I had lined up. Really delicious freebies. I'd quite like the war to end tomorrow, with apologies to the poor brave Iranians, who would have to continue their miserable lives enslaved by arguably the nastiest regime on earth

    What I am trying to do is EXTRAPOLATE, to war game, and I don't see a way that Trump avoids a fatally wounding defeat which he can't really handwave away as a "victory", unless he commits vast numbers of US ground troops. (which he sensibly will not do), OR he uses the totally dominant US air power to do the ultimate damage and humiliate Tehran, with either total carpet bombing. Or nukes

    Meanwhile, Israel is cheering on the USA, and encouraging it to go all out on the Mullahs

    But, pray, tell us how YOU see this panning out?


    I've no idea but then I'm not one of the egomaniacs having a tantrum in any of the three countries.

    I can confidently say though that going from 13 dead in 23 days to use of nuclear weapons without any intervening steps is not something any previous US administration would have ever contemplated or any US military command would have advocated.
    "America now has no choice but to

    1. Seize Kharg island with actual troops

    then

    2. Nuke a couple of small Iranian cities, or military bases, with the clear message that the USA will destroy the entire country unless the mullahs submit"

    Not sure why you would have to do item 1 if you were doing item 2
    AIUI that would give them tactical control of the Straits, making the nuking much more speedily effective; but also please note that I am a slightly drunk flint sex toy knapper, not a professional geopolitical MENA expert
    Kharg does not give control of the Straits.

    Stick to the drinking.

    Yes, in effect, it does. Drink more


    "Kharg island: The tiny oil hub in Persian Gulf that Trump could seize in major escalation of war against Iran"

    "Kharg island holds 94 per cent of Iran’s oil exports and could choke off the country’s economy for years"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-kharg-island-oil-size-trump-ground-troops-b2943072.html
    That doesn’t give control of the Strait of Hormuz .

    Watch Newsnight on Friday and Tim Marshall explaining how complicated opening that up will be .
    Kharg gives control of Iranian exports (although not as much as many news reports cite) but does not give control of the Straits.

    If kharg is invaded then there will be even less reason for Iran to give up on fucking the world via the Straits.

    It should also on be noted that Iran has gone through a period before, as a result of sanctions, when its oil revenue dropped by around 90%, from 2018 to 2020.

    The regime survived that.

    It might well make them try something even more stupid.
    Impoverishing the populace rarely forces regime change, ask any dictator.
    Indeed it often reinforces state control as political connections are needed to survive.
    Who introduced Leon to Buckfast?
    I assume that's what he's imbibing to make him even more irrational and belligerent than Trump.
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