On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing
The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
Ban all symbols of religion, the burqa, the crucifix, the dog collar, etc. Then ban all religion. Give peace a chance.
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
Ban all symbols of religion, the burqa, the crucifix, the dog collar, etc. Then ban all religion. Give peace a chance.
If you want a religious civil war in this country then try, Christians along with Muslims, Jews and Hindus certainly won't be dictated to by the 37% of non religious in this nation
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
Ban all symbols of religion, the burqa, the crucifix, the dog collar, etc. Then ban all religion. Give peace a chance.
On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing
The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim
So Kemi is cleverly adopting a highly popular cause, if she does this
The bar for banning things, even things we don't like, should be high.
FWIW, I think you are right that the best way to deal with these things is via referendum.
Yes indeed. I really really wish we could adopt the mature Irish or Swiss referendum model. Have a proper informed debate on issues like this, then let the people decide
That way no one can dispute the outcome. The people speak, and the lawmakers have to obey
Referendums are arguably better for stuff like this than the complex constitutional decisions - tho I accept we have to endure them, for epochal issues like Brexit or Sindy
Keir Starmer: where did it all go wrong? Political journalist Lewis Goodall explores why Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government has become so unpopular so quickly, less than two years after winning the biggest landslide in UK election history
Or there's the England match on ITV.
AFAIR, it was never very popular, even about 4 weeks after the GE.
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
Ban all symbols of religion, the burqa, the crucifix, the dog collar, etc. Then ban all religion. Give peace a chance.
Stalin says hello.
Stalin's back?! That's much worse news than a row about banning things.
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
Ban all symbols of religion, the burqa, the crucifix, the dog collar, etc. Then ban all religion. Give peace a chance.
Stalin says hello.
Stalin's back?! That's much worse news than a row about banning things.
Last time he returned, he quickly transformed into Mr Bean.
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
TDS is so widespread, it came up in my charity Trustee meeting this afternoon- where I genuinely got nervously chuckled at for saying, of course there isn't going to be WWIII. "You're confident" etc.
The hyperbole is off the scale.
It shows that a clear-eyed assessment of Donald Trump has (finally) gone viral when 'ok but he's not Hitler' and 'surely he won't start WW3' is about where equilibrium is now.
Israel claims that Iran presents an existential threat. Regardless of Iranian threats, that is clearly nonsense. Israel has nukes and the backing of the US.
However for the first time in its existence, it is facing a possible existential threat, namely the removal of US support. Israel is a small country of about 10 million people without significant natural resources, surrounded by enemies. It needs the US.
The polls in the US are moving decisively against support for Israel, particularly among the young. I don't think Israelis, the majority of whom support the war against Iran, are aware of this potential threat.
There isn't massive support for the Iran War amongst most Americans beyond MAGA.
That is not the same as not supporting Israel if it was invaded though, the US Conservative Evangelical and Jewish lobby in particular would demand it
If and when the Democrats regain power, the US Conservative Evangelical and Jewish lobby would be powerless.
However I don't think Israel would be invaded, even if it lost US financial and military support. It has the bomb. But it would be impoverished and contained.
Most Jews vote Democrat and they are the biggest donors to the Democrat party though as you say Israel almost certainly has nukes to defend itself too. Israel won't ever be impoverished either, Jews are the best wealth creators on earth
In the same way that we have roughly enough intellectual property (so how can people have jobs creating it), we have more than enough physical property in many areas.
We do, and of course populations in some countries are now dropping. So there's lot of old "stuff" to go round
I heartily approve. My flat is exquisitely adorned with wildly underpriced objects
However, this doesn't quite explain why anyone would prefer that tedious banal new John Lewis plate, which is MORE expensive than the 200 year old Spode, which is very pretty
I guess it's all about dishwashers and practicality but yawn, how boring. Life is short, Fill it with beauty and lace it with story
You may say dishwashers are boring but I say they are one of the greatest inventions of the modern world when I compare my average evening with my mother's as I was growing up.
Well yes, that's true
And I live alone and generally cook alone (and love it) which means my washing up takes five minutes
I'd probably feel very differently if I was cooking for six every night
But still. 1810 Spode plates for under a tenner? Madness. Fill your boots
On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing
The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim
On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing
The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim
Farage will not be PM though I expect you will be disappointed
At the moment he will be unless massive anti Reform tactical voting
Not even now
Yes even now, I have literally just given you what the latest poll would translate to into seats ie an overall Reform majority
Other polls are available
All current polls have Farage PM, either with an overall majority or with most seats in a hung parliament assuming the Tories don't give confidence and supply to Labour but at most abstain even if they don't do a formal deal with Reform
Most seats does not make him PM
It does given polls giving a hung parliament give Reform most seats and the Tories the balance of power, so unless the Tories gave confidence and supply to Labour, which Kemi at least never would, Farage would be PM
On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing
The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
Ban all symbols of religion, the burqa, the crucifix, the dog collar, etc. Then ban all religion. Give peace a chance.
No. The burqa is different. Quite obviously women are wearing them under duress. Nothing to do with the freedom of expression: it is, quite literally, the opposite of that.
All religions are anti freedom of expression. They are used to keep us plebs in our place.
On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing
The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
No, live and let live. If women, or men, want to wear a burqa why not ?
The Tories need to get rid of this opportunistic chancer.
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
As I commented on the previous, neither result was that good for the Conservatives who were winning seats won with 65-70% share of the vote in 2023, which was a poor year for the party.
I know Halstead and Badgers Mount - it's a Ward bordering Orpington. The notion it could be anything other than Conservative is stretching credibility - the Conservatives polled 78% in the 2019 locals so a significant decline from then until now.
As you say, however, tactical voting might help the Conservatives where Reform is the obvious threat but conversely we are likely to see big falls (you might argue) where other parties are seen as more likely to stop Reform.
What it showed is that Tory incumbents have a chance of holding on with anti Reform tactical votes even if on UNS they would lose to Reform
Tomorrow night the clocks go forward and we gain a beautiful hour of twilight. Summer is icumen in, loudly sing cuckoo
Then keep them forward. An hour of daylight in the evening is much more useful than an hour of daylight in the morning. The excuse of children walking to school in the dark no longer applies now that the little darlings go to school in mummy’s 4x4.
When is it ever dark when kids are walking to school at 8:45am?
Or indeed as you say hopping into the SRV for the 200 yard journey to school during which they will spend all two minutes looking at their phones.
On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing
The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim
I dunno. I am slightly tempted by this more culturally robust Tory party. If they really mean it and they really put it in their manifestos, maybe they could win over people like me - I am highly Reform-minded on Woke stuff, but I worry their economic policies do not exist, and their foreign policies are all over the place
And Kemi is improving. And I really like the way she stood up for Nick Timothy. She did not fold to the Woke outrage. She is growing on me. So you may just possibly win back Reform voters like me
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
As I commented on the previous, neither result was that good for the Conservatives who were winning seats won with 65-70% share of the vote in 2023, which was a poor year for the party.
I know Halstead and Badgers Mount - it's a Ward bordering Orpington. The notion it could be anything other than Conservative is stretching credibility - the Conservatives polled 78% in the 2019 locals so a significant decline from then until now.
As you say, however, tactical voting might help the Conservatives where Reform is the obvious threat but conversely we are likely to see big falls (you might argue) where other parties are seen as more likely to stop Reform.
Both Axholme and Halstead were direct head to heads in 2023 (and in Halsteads case has been every election since 2003) and were fought by 4 and 5 parties this time out. The idea of 'decline' therefore needs viewing in that light
On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing
The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim
So Kemi is cleverly adopting a highly popular cause, if she does this
Yebbut Reform will steal the policy, and may do so anyway whether she goes for it or not
It is Reform policy
So the boot is on the other foot - policy theft by Kemi!
Politicians pinching popular policies - surely not !!!!!
I do love when you hear complaints from politicians about stealing policies. Sure, it happens, and it can be pretty shameless, but the public really don't care where an idea originates. I once heard a politician moan about another party 'plagiarising' policies from them, which even if it is true just comes across as such a petty complaint. "How dare they steal our good ideas?"
Ok, you can try to play it as the other side having no ideas and needing to copy you, but that's not always the tone take, they can sound genuinely outraged at the 'theft'.
Farage will not be PM though I expect you will be disappointed
At the moment he will be unless massive anti Reform tactical voting
Not even now
Yes even now, I have literally just given you what the latest poll would translate to into seats ie an overall Reform majority
Other polls are available
All current polls have Farage PM, either with an overall majority or with most seats in a hung parliament assuming the Tories don't give confidence and supply to Labour but at most abstain even if they don't do a formal deal with Reform
Most seats does not make him PM
It does given polls giving a hung parliament give Reform most seats and the Tories the balance of power, so unless the Tories gave confidence and supply to Labour, which Kemi at least never would, Farage would be PM
The relative in hospital (who I was convinced was going to die and whose symptoms indicated exactly that) was discharged from hospital earlier this week, albeit into the arms of a care team. I am now productively working back in work instead of (as I dreaded) arranging a funeral.
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter BREAKING: Qatar has declared force majeure on LNG contracts through May 2026, canceling obligations to customers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China.
Qatar is one of the world's largest LNG suppliers, accounting for 20% of global LNG production.
On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing
The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim
On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing
The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim
But what's the reason to think that she won't? Passively or actively, Kemi would have a choice to make in a hung parliament. And she has been much clearer on his dislike of Starmer than of Farage.
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
Tomorrow night the clocks go forward and we gain a beautiful hour of twilight. Summer is icumen in, loudly sing cuckoo
Then keep them forward. An hour of daylight in the evening is much more useful than an hour of daylight in the morning. The excuse of children walking to school in the dark no longer applies now that the little darlings go to school in mummy’s 4x4.
When is it ever dark when kids are walking to school at 8:45am?
Or indeed as you say hopping into the SRV for the 200 yard journey to school during which they will spend all two minutes looking at their phones.
Israel claims that Iran presents an existential threat. Regardless of Iranian threats, that is clearly nonsense. Israel has nukes and the backing of the US.
However for the first time in its existence, it is facing a possible existential threat, namely the removal of US support. Israel is a small country of about 10 million people without significant natural resources, surrounded by enemies. It needs the US.
The polls in the US are moving decisively against support for Israel, particularly among the young. I don't think Israelis, the majority of whom support the war against Iran, are aware of this potential threat.
There isn't massive support for the Iran War amongst most Americans beyond MAGA.
That is not the same as not supporting Israel if it was invaded though, the US Conservative Evangelical and Jewish lobby in particular would demand it
If and when the Democrats regain power, the US Conservative Evangelical and Jewish lobby would be powerless.
However I don't think Israel would be invaded, even if it lost US financial and military support. It has the bomb. But it would be impoverished and contained.
Most Jews vote Democrat and they are the biggest donors to the Democrat party though as you say Israel almost certainly has nukes to defend itself too. Israel won't ever be impoverished either, Jews are the best wealth creators on earth
70% of the 7m Jews in the US vote Democrat, i.e. about 2% of citizens eligible to vote. But not all US Jews support Israel's actions. They are also concentrated in various cities and hardly affect the vote in most states/districts.
On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing
The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim
I dunno. I am slightly tempted by this more culturally robust Tory party. If they really mean it and they really put it in their manifestos, maybe they could win over people like me - I am highly Reform-minded on Woke stuff, but I worry their economic policies do not exist, and their foreign policies are all over the place
And Kemi is improving. And I really like the way she stood up for Nick Timothy. She did not fold to the Woke outrage. She is growing on me. So you may just possibly win back Reform voters like me
Possibly but you are a wealthy, graduate, high earning, relatively socially liberal apart from on immigration, upper middle class Reform flirter who lives in central London. It is Reform voters from the lower middle classes and skilled working class in the provinces who voted for Boris Kemi has to win back to see the Tories overtake Reform again or even push Labour down to third.
There is still no sign they are going back to the Conservatives, so unless Kemi starts seeing some progress on that front and unless the Tories are at least second in May some Tory MPs may think it would be better to replace her with Cleverly. He could at least hold the Sunak 2024 vote and win more anti Reform tactical votes in Tory seats from Labour and LD voters than she has been doing
Unfortunately for Rubio (and the rest of us) the Iranians have every incentive, and likely the means too, to continue this thing for months in order to crush Trump's political standing. Trump has effectively given the Iranians the ability to control whether the Democrats are able to blow out his party in the midterms and put him on a tight rein afterwards. Why would Iran not take that opportunity?
On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing
The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim
But what's the reason to think that she won't? Passively or actively, Kemi would have a choice to make in a hung parliament. And she has been much clearer on his dislike of Starmer than of Farage.
I support her banning the burka, and as for GE 29 I have no idea the make up of that Parliament but Farage will not be PM as far too many will vote to keep him out
On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing
The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim
So Kemi is cleverly adopting a highly popular cause, if she does this
The bar for banning things, even things we don't like, should be high.
FWIW, I think you are right that the best way to deal with these things is via referendum.
Referendums do not create a settlement, as we spent 2016-2019 proving. If she really wants to do this anti libertarian thing, put it in the manifesto and defend it in the runup to the GE. Then if she gets elected she's got a mandate.
Tomorrow night the clocks go forward and we gain a beautiful hour of twilight. Summer is icumen in, loudly sing cuckoo
Then keep them forward. An hour of daylight in the evening is much more useful than an hour of daylight in the morning. The excuse of children walking to school in the dark no longer applies now that the little darlings go to school in mummy’s 4x4.
Waking up and getting up in darkness is generally pretty difficult and miserable for everyone. I'm not convinced it's good for anyone's health.
By all means get up earlier in summer to make use of the daylight, but there's no need to change the clocks to do that.
On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing
The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim
I dunno. I am slightly tempted by this more culturally robust Tory party. If they really mean it and they really put it in their manifestos, maybe they could win over people like me - I am highly Reform-minded on Woke stuff, but I worry their economic policies do not exist, and their foreign policies are all over the place
And Kemi is improving. And I really like the way she stood up for Nick Timothy. She did not fold to the Woke outrage. She is growing on me. So you may just possibly win back Reform voters like me
Possibly but you are a wealthy, graduate, high earning, relatively socially liberal apart from on immigration, upper middle class Reform flirter who lives in central London. It is Reform voters from the lower middle classes and skilled working class in the provinces who voted for Boris Kemi has to win back to see the Tories overtake Reform again or even push Labour down to third.
There is still no sign they are going back to the Conservatives, so unless Kemi starts seeing some progress on that front and unless the Tories are at least second in May some Tory MPs may think it would be better to replace her with Cleverly. He could at least hold the Sunak 2024 vote and win more anti Reform tactical votes in Tory seats from Labour and LD voters than she has been doing
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
They are, the LD vote was down 14% in that Sevenoaks ward, given Reform got 29% and the Tory vote was down 20%, without LDs tactically voting Tory it could have been a Reform gain not a Tory hold https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
There was "no evidence" of "family voting" or voter coercion at the Gorton and Denton by-election, police have concluded after an investigation.
Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, reported allegations of the illegal practice after the poll last month to Greater Manchester Police and the Electoral Commission.
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
They are, the LD vote was down 14% in that Sevenoaks ward, given Reform got 29% and the Tory vote was down 20%, without LDs tactically voting Tory it could have been a Reform gain not a Tory hold https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
Thats just pure unfounded assumption. And, btw, the Tories were 14% ahead of Reform who were only 9% ahead of the LDs so the LDs would have won if these imaginary LD tactical voters had stayed with their team
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
They are, the LD vote was down 14% in that Sevenoaks ward, given Reform got 29% and the Tory vote was down 20%, without LDs tactically voting Tory it could have been a Reform gain not a Tory hold https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
@wooliedyed is far more forensic and correct on analysing these results than you will ever be
There was "no evidence" of "family voting" or voter coercion at the Gorton and Denton by-election, police have concluded after an investigation.
Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, reported allegations of the illegal practice after the poll last month to Greater Manchester Police and the Electoral Commission.
Assuming (absent evidence to the contrary) a competent investigation, that is very good news.
There was "no evidence" of "family voting" or voter coercion at the Gorton and Denton by-election, police have concluded after an investigation.
Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, reported allegations of the illegal practice after the poll last month to Greater Manchester Police and the Electoral Commission.
Oh wait, did Nigel Farage make up some shit about brown people? Say it ain't so!
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
TDS is so widespread, it came up in my charity Trustee meeting this afternoon- where I genuinely got nervously chuckled at for saying, of course there isn't going to be WWIII. "You're confident" etc.
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
TDS is so widespread, it came up in my charity Trustee meeting this afternoon- where I genuinely got nervously chuckled at for saying, of course there isn't going to be WWIII. "You're confident" etc.
The hyperbole is off the scale.
It shows that a clear-eyed assessment of Donald Trump has (finally) gone viral when 'ok but he's not Hitler' and 'surely he won't start WW3' is about where equilibrium is now.
Yeah, but I basically now think anyone who randomly drops Donald Trump as an excuse into a private conversation is a twat.
There was "no evidence" of "family voting" or voter coercion at the Gorton and Denton by-election, police have concluded after an investigation.
Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, reported allegations of the illegal practice after the poll last month to Greater Manchester Police and the Electoral Commission.
Oh wait, did Nigel Farage make up some shit about brown people? Say it ain't so!
It's good to have it rejected, but to be fair I do not know how it could be proved anyway even if it existed
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
They are, the LD vote was down 14% in that Sevenoaks ward, given Reform got 29% and the Tory vote was down 20%, without LDs tactically voting Tory it could have been a Reform gain not a Tory hold https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
@wooliedyed is far more forensic and correct on analysing these results than you will ever be
Oh dont make me blush Soneone will be along to tell you I talk a load of old cock
On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing
The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim
So Kemi is cleverly adopting a highly popular cause, if she does this
The bar for banning things, even things we don't like, should be high.
FWIW, I think you are right that the best way to deal with these things is via referendum.
Referendums do not create a settlement, as we spent 2016-2019 proving. If she really wants to do this anti libertarian thing, put it in the manifesto and defend it in the runup to the GE. Then if she gets elected she's got a mandate.
The Referendum question would be:
Should it be made illegal to cover your face and body in public?
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
They are, the LD vote was down 14% in that Sevenoaks ward, given Reform got 29% and the Tory vote was down 20%, without LDs tactically voting Tory it could have been a Reform gain not a Tory hold https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
@wooliedyed is far more forensic and correct on analysing these results than you will ever be
Oh dont make me blush Soneone will be along to tell you I talk a load of old cock
I find your analysis very informative and interesting whereas I could predict @HYUFD slant on polling before he makes it
There was "no evidence" of "family voting" or voter coercion at the Gorton and Denton by-election, police have concluded after an investigation.
Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, reported allegations of the illegal practice after the poll last month to Greater Manchester Police and the Electoral Commission.
"We have spoken to the four Democracy Volunteers observers present at polling stations on the day of the by-election - 26 February - who have shared with us their eyewitness account," police said
"The observers do not allege any verbal instruction or physical conduct that indicated one person was directing or coercing another regarding how to vote."
"The absence of this information means there is no remaining reasonable line of enquiry," police added.
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
TDS is so widespread, it came up in my charity Trustee meeting this afternoon- where I genuinely got nervously chuckled at for saying, of course there isn't going to be WWIII. "You're confident" etc.
The hyperbole is off the scale.
It shows that a clear-eyed assessment of Donald Trump has (finally) gone viral when 'ok but he's not Hitler' and 'surely he won't start WW3' is about where equilibrium is now.
Yeah, but I basically now think anyone who randomly drops Donald Trump as an excuse into a private conversation is a twat.
He's become a dirty word, yes. Best avoided in general socialising. No effing or blinding or trumping. I adhere to that.
There was "no evidence" of "family voting" or voter coercion at the Gorton and Denton by-election, police have concluded after an investigation.
Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, reported allegations of the illegal practice after the poll last month to Greater Manchester Police and the Electoral Commission.
"We have spoken to the four Democracy Volunteers observers present at polling stations on the day of the by-election - 26 February - who have shared with us their eyewitness account," police said
"The observers do not allege any verbal instruction or physical conduct that indicated one person was directing or coercing another regarding how to vote."
"The absence of this information means there is no remaining reasonable line of enquiry," police added.
Farage claims its a "Whitewash" Appropriate phrase from NF methinks
On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing
The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim
I dunno. I am slightly tempted by this more culturally robust Tory party. If they really mean it and they really put it in their manifestos, maybe they could win over people like me - I am highly Reform-minded on Woke stuff, but I worry their economic policies do not exist, and their foreign policies are all over the place
And Kemi is improving. And I really like the way she stood up for Nick Timothy. She did not fold to the Woke outrage. She is growing on me. So you may just possibly win back Reform voters like me
Possibly but you are a wealthy, graduate, high earning, relatively socially liberal apart from on immigration, upper middle class Reform flirter who lives in central London. It is Reform voters from the lower middle classes and skilled working class in the provinces who voted for Boris Kemi has to win back to see the Tories overtake Reform again or even push Labour down to third.
There is still no sign they are going back to the Conservatives, so unless Kemi starts seeing some progress on that front and unless the Tories are at least second in May some Tory MPs may think it would be better to replace her with Cleverly. He could at least hold the Sunak 2024 vote and win more anti Reform tactical votes in Tory seats from Labour and LD voters than she has been doing
You can't be socially liberal and a Reform flirter. I think you meant socially libertine
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
No, live and let live. If women, or men, want to wear a burqa why not ?
What do you think would happen if 50% of the women currently wearing them decided they’d rather not, and just wore normal clothes?
On the burqa ban, there hasn't been much polling in recent years, but through the 2010s it evoked strong and consistent support, with around 60% wanting a ban, and around 25% opposing
The latest poll I can find is 2018 by Sky, and it was the same. 59% wanted a ban, 26% did not. I find it hard to believe public opinion has shifted to a more tolerant position since then, given all the "events" interim
I dunno. I am slightly tempted by this more culturally robust Tory party. If they really mean it and they really put it in their manifestos, maybe they could win over people like me - I am highly Reform-minded on Woke stuff, but I worry their economic policies do not exist, and their foreign policies are all over the place
And Kemi is improving. And I really like the way she stood up for Nick Timothy. She did not fold to the Woke outrage. She is growing on me. So you may just possibly win back Reform voters like me
Possibly but you are a wealthy, graduate, high earning, relatively socially liberal apart from on immigration, upper middle class Reform flirter who lives in central London. It is Reform voters from the lower middle classes and skilled working class in the provinces who voted for Boris Kemi has to win back to see the Tories overtake Reform again or even push Labour down to third.
There is still no sign they are going back to the Conservatives, so unless Kemi starts seeing some progress on that front and unless the Tories are at least second in May some Tory MPs may think it would be better to replace her with Cleverly. He could at least hold the Sunak 2024 vote and win more anti Reform tactical votes in Tory seats from Labour and LD voters than she has been doing
You can't be socially liberal and a Reform flirter. I think you meant socially libertine
I admire your precision. "Libertine" is indeed more accurate
There was "no evidence" of "family voting" or voter coercion at the Gorton and Denton by-election, police have concluded after an investigation.
Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, reported allegations of the illegal practice after the poll last month to Greater Manchester Police and the Electoral Commission.
"We have spoken to the four Democracy Volunteers observers present at polling stations on the day of the by-election - 26 February - who have shared with us their eyewitness account," police said
"The observers do not allege any verbal instruction or physical conduct that indicated one person was directing or coercing another regarding how to vote."
"The absence of this information means there is no remaining reasonable line of enquiry," police added.
Hmmmm. They may have done more to damage democracy in this country than enhance it.
If you're going to make that kind of allegation publicly (before going to the police or council), you've got to be damn sure.
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
They are, the LD vote was down 14% in that Sevenoaks ward, given Reform got 29% and the Tory vote was down 20%, without LDs tactically voting Tory it could have been a Reform gain not a Tory hold https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
@wooliedyed is far more forensic and correct on analysing these results than you will ever be
Oh dont make me blush Soneone will be along to tell you I talk a load of old cock
I find your analysis very informative and interesting whereas I could predict @HYUFD slant on polling before he makes it
Thank you. I make plenty of errors though and i have my biases. But definitely last nights Tory holds were nothing to do with tactical voting. In both cases in 2023 voters wanting to 'stop the Tory' had on,y one option - Lab in Axholme, LD in Sevenoaks. This time they had 4 options in Ax, 3 in Seven. 4 and 5 horse races (where those horses are the recognised national thoroughbreds) are rarely won on massive vote shares of 50% plus. 2 horse races are always won on 50% plus vote shares. Theres no rocket science or mystery to it.
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
They are, the LD vote was down 14% in that Sevenoaks ward, given Reform got 29% and the Tory vote was down 20%, without LDs tactically voting Tory it could have been a Reform gain not a Tory hold https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
Thats just pure unfounded assumption. And, btw, the Tories were 14% ahead of Reform who were only 9% ahead of the LDs so the LDs would have won if these imaginary LD tactical voters had stayed with their team
There's a fair point you made earlier in respect of Halstead and Badgers Mount in that in both 2015 and 2019 the Conservatives faced a single opposing party (first Labour then the LDs) but the truth is in both cases the victory was overwhelming.
As to what happened yesterday, the first point was the high turnout - 45% - compared with 36% at the 2023 election. The Conservative vote was numerically down as was the LD vote but the big surprise was the Reform vote which was probably a combination of ex-Conservatives, some ex-LDs and non-voters though in what proportion I don't know.
The Conservatives polled 620 and 604 respectively but on a 20% higher turnout saw the number voting for the candidate fall to 561. The LD candidates polled 336 and 286 in 2023 and yesterday their candidate polled 266. You can crunch the numbers and make a determination of sorts.
Looking ahead to May, the clue will be in the turnout. There is plenty of evidence Reform benefits from higher turnout as more of those who previously abstained come out to support Farage's party so the Reform numbers will be ex-Conservatives plus non-voters before we get to anything tactical but the proportions will vary.
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
It would outflank Labour on closer alignment with Europe on the issues that people care about.
Kemi imputes that she knows how many thousands of people think, and evaluates them according to her personal opinions.
Kemi is a knee-jerking fool. This is no better than Farage or Anderson.
And yet this ban is what a vast majority of Brits want, according to polls. And several European countries - not notably Nazi - have banned them. And they are banned in multiple Muslim countries
So what exactly is your objection?
It would be interesting to see the left’s reaction if all Reform voters wives were suddenly dressed from head to toe in black sackcloths, except for when they were at home with the Reform male. I doubt it would be tossed aside as ‘their freedom to wear whatever they liked’
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
TDS is so widespread, it came up in my charity Trustee meeting this afternoon- where I genuinely got nervously chuckled at for saying, of course there isn't going to be WWIII. "You're confident" etc.
The hyperbole is off the scale.
It shows that a clear-eyed assessment of Donald Trump has (finally) gone viral when 'ok but he's not Hitler' and 'surely he won't start WW3' is about where equilibrium is now.
Yeah, but I basically now think anyone who randomly drops Donald Trump as an excuse into a private conversation is a twat.
Donald Trump is a twat? I heartily agree with you, CR!
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
No, live and let live. If women, or men, want to wear a burqa why not ?
What do you think would happen if 50% of the women currently wearing them decided they’d rather not, and just wore normal clothes?
I know more Muslims than most on here, and there definitely are Muslim women who choose to wear a Burqa - in the same way there are Frum Jewish women who chose to wear the wigs, won't shake hands with a man who isn't their husband, and the like.
On the other hand, there are definitely women who don't want to wear the Burqa, and who feel obligated by the threat of being cast out of their community to do so.
I would be interested to see how religious Muslim women would vote if it was a secret ballot.
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
No, live and let live. If women, or men, want to wear a burqa why not ?
Apart from when showing the face is needed, of course. I loathe the idea of the burqua and believe it's very counter to western liberal values as it represents male control over women. But yes, live and let live.
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
No, live and let live. If women, or men, want to wear a burqa why not ?
What do you think would happen if 50% of the women currently wearing them decided they’d rather not, and just wore normal clothes?
I know more Muslims than most on here, and there definitely are Muslim women who choose to wear a Burqa - in the same way there are Frum Jewish women who chose to wear the wigs, won't shake hands with a man who isn't their husband, and the like.
On the other hand, there are definitely women who don't want to wear the Burqa, and who feel obligated by the threat of being cast out of their community to do so.
I would be interested to see how religious Muslim women would vote if it was a secret ballot.
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
It would outflank Labour on closer alignment with Europe on the issues that people care about.
Kemi imputes that she knows how many thousands of people think, and evaluates them according to her personal opinions.
Kemi is a knee-jerking fool. This is no better than Farage or Anderson.
And yet this ban is what a vast majority of Brits want, according to polls. And several European countries - not notably Nazi - have banned them. And they are banned in multiple Muslim countries
So what exactly is your objection?
It would be interesting to see the left’s reaction if all Reform voters wives were suddenly dressed from head to toe in black sackcloths, except for when they were at home with the Reform male. I doubt it would be tossed aside as ‘their freedom to wear whatever they liked’
Ditto if this was white American Mormon immigrants demanding the right to polygamy
The left is as intellectually pathetic as it is morally vacuous
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
No, live and let live. If women, or men, want to wear a burqa why not ?
What do you think would happen if 50% of the women currently wearing them decided they’d rather not, and just wore normal clothes?
I know more Muslims than most on here, and there definitely are Muslim women who choose to wear a Burqa - in the same way there are Frum Jewish women who chose to wear the wigs, won't shake hands with a man who isn't their husband, and the like.
On the other hand, there are definitely women who don't want to wear the Burqa, and who feel obligated by the threat of being cast out of their community to do so.
I would be interested to see how religious Muslim women would vote if it was a secret ballot.
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
It would outflank Labour on closer alignment with Europe on the issues that people care about.
Kemi imputes that she knows how many thousands of people think, and evaluates them according to her personal opinions.
Kemi is a knee-jerking fool. This is no better than Farage or Anderson.
And yet this ban is what a vast majority of Brits want, according to polls. And several European countries - not notably Nazi - have banned them. And they are banned in multiple Muslim countries
So what exactly is your objection?
It would be interesting to see the left’s reaction if all Reform voters wives were suddenly dressed from head to toe in black sackcloths, except for when they were at home with the Reform male. I doubt it would be tossed aside as ‘their freedom to wear whatever they liked’
I don't you can charactirise this issue as left-right. The polling (which is now very old) shows a material difference between the left and right parties, but there is still a significant majority in favour of a ban amongst folk on the left. There's something of an age bias (which I think is the main determinant of whether someone supports it or not), gender and social grade is identical.
And as we've seen on PB, views differ across the spectrum. I can't think of an issue I'm more conflicted about personally.
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
No, live and let live. If women, or men, want to wear a burqa why not ?
What do you think would happen if 50% of the women currently wearing them decided they’d rather not, and just wore normal clothes?
I know more Muslims than most on here, and there definitely are Muslim women who choose to wear a Burqa - in the same way there are Frum Jewish women who chose to wear the wigs, won't shake hands with a man who isn't their husband, and the like.
On the other hand, there are definitely women who don't want to wear the Burqa, and who feel obligated by the threat of being cast out of their community to do so.
I would be interested to see how religious Muslim women would vote if it was a secret ballot.
That's very disturbing for a throwaway phrase if it was a secret ballot. Aren't ballots secret anyway?
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
No, live and let live. If women, or men, want to wear a burqa why not ?
What do you think would happen if 50% of the women currently wearing them decided they’d rather not, and just wore normal clothes?
I know more Muslims than most on here, and there definitely are Muslim women who choose to wear a Burqa - in the same way there are Frum Jewish women who chose to wear the wigs, won't shake hands with a man who isn't their husband, and the like.
On the other hand, there are definitely women who don't want to wear the Burqa, and who feel obligated by the threat of being cast out of their community to do so.
I would be interested to see how religious Muslim women would vote if it was a secret ballot.
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
It would outflank Labour on closer alignment with Europe on the issues that people care about.
Kemi imputes that she knows how many thousands of people think, and evaluates them according to her personal opinions.
Kemi is a knee-jerking fool. This is no better than Farage or Anderson.
And yet this ban is what a vast majority of Brits want, according to polls. And several European countries - not notably Nazi - have banned them. And they are banned in multiple Muslim countries
So what exactly is your objection?
It would be interesting to see the left’s reaction if all Reform voters wives were suddenly dressed from head to toe in black sackcloths, except for when they were at home with the Reform male. I doubt it would be tossed aside as ‘their freedom to wear whatever they liked’
"Reform voters wives" sounds like the world's worst pornographic magazine.
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
It would outflank Labour on closer alignment with Europe on the issues that people care about.
Kemi imputes that she knows how many thousands of people think, and evaluates them according to her personal opinions.
Kemi is a knee-jerking fool. This is no better than Farage or Anderson.
And yet this ban is what a vast majority of Brits want, according to polls. And several European countries - not notably Nazi - have banned them. And they are banned in multiple Muslim countries
So what exactly is your objection?
It would be interesting to see the left’s reaction if all Reform voters wives were suddenly dressed from head to toe in black sackcloths, except for when they were at home with the Reform male. I doubt it would be tossed aside as ‘their freedom to wear whatever they liked’
Gerry Helliwell dresses would be better as compulsory attire
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
They are, the LD vote was down 14% in that Sevenoaks ward, given Reform got 29% and the Tory vote was down 20%, without LDs tactically voting Tory it could have been a Reform gain not a Tory hold https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
Thats just pure unfounded assumption. And, btw, the Tories were 14% ahead of Reform who were only 9% ahead of the LDs so the LDs would have won if these imaginary LD tactical voters had stayed with their team
There's a fair point you made earlier in respect of Halstead and Badgers Mount in that in both 2015 and 2019 the Conservatives faced a single opposing party (first Labour then the LDs) but the truth is in both cases the victory was overwhelming.
As to what happened yesterday, the first point was the high turnout - 45% - compared with 36% at the 2023 election. The Conservative vote was numerically down as was the LD vote but the big surprise was the Reform vote which was probably a combination of ex-Conservatives, some ex-LDs and non-voters though in what proportion I don't know.
The Conservatives polled 620 and 604 respectively but on a 20% higher turnout saw the number voting for the candidate fall to 561. The LD candidates polled 336 and 286 in 2023 and yesterday their candidate polled 266. You can crunch the numbers and make a determination of sorts.
Looking ahead to May, the clue will be in the turnout. There is plenty of evidence Reform benefits from higher turnout as more of those who previously abstained come out to support Farage's party so the Reform numbers will be ex-Conservatives plus non-voters before we get to anything tactical but the proportions will vary.
Reform did well to take second although that does tie in with the Hextable result a few weeks ago. The holds werent astounding but i dont think they were 'flaccid' either.
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
No, live and let live. If women, or men, want to wear a burqa why not ?
What do you think would happen if 50% of the women currently wearing them decided they’d rather not, and just wore normal clothes?
I know more Muslims than most on here, and there definitely are Muslim women who choose to wear a Burqa - in the same way there are Frum Jewish women who chose to wear the wigs, won't shake hands with a man who isn't their husband, and the like.
On the other hand, there are definitely women who don't want to wear the Burqa, and who feel obligated by the threat of being cast out of their community to do so.
I would be interested to see how religious Muslim women would vote if it was a secret ballot.
That's very disturbing for a throwaway phrase if it was a secret ballot. Aren't ballots secret anyway?
I really wasn't implying anything; just wanting to make sure that we got underlying views.
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
They are, the LD vote was down 14% in that Sevenoaks ward, given Reform got 29% and the Tory vote was down 20%, without LDs tactically voting Tory it could have been a Reform gain not a Tory hold https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
@wooliedyed is far more forensic and correct on analysing these results than you will ever be
Oh dont make me blush Soneone will be along to tell you I talk a load of old cock
I find your analysis very informative and interesting whereas I could predict @HYUFD slant on polling before he makes it
Thank you. I make plenty of errors though and i have my biases. But definitely last nights Tory holds were nothing to do with tactical voting. In both cases in 2023 voters wanting to 'stop the Tory' had on,y one option - Lab in Axholme, LD in Sevenoaks. This time they had 4 options in Ax, 3 in Seven. 4 and 5 horse races (where those horses are the recognised national thoroughbreds) are rarely won on massive vote shares of 50% plus. 2 horse races are always won on 50% plus vote shares. Theres no rocket science or mystery to it.
That is simply not the case.
The issue is no longer 'Stop the Tory' the issue is 'Stop Reform' for Lab and LD voters in Tory held seats. Hence the Labour and LD votes were down in Axholme and Sevenoaks respectively, Reform were a clear second in both seats but the Tories held both seats despite the Tory vote being down about 20% in both seats in a straight Tory to Reform shift
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
It would outflank Labour on closer alignment with Europe on the issues that people care about.
Kemi imputes that she knows how many thousands of people think, and evaluates them according to her personal opinions.
Kemi is a knee-jerking fool. This is no better than Farage or Anderson.
And yet this ban is what a vast majority of Brits want, according to polls. And several European countries - not notably Nazi - have banned them. And they are banned in multiple Muslim countries
So what exactly is your objection?
It would be interesting to see the left’s reaction if all Reform voters wives were suddenly dressed from head to toe in black sackcloths, except for when they were at home with the Reform male. I doubt it would be tossed aside as ‘their freedom to wear whatever they liked’
I don't you can charactirise this issue as left-right. The polling (which is now very old) shows a material difference between the left and right parties, but there is still a significant majority in favour of a ban amongst folk on the left. There's something of an age bias (which I think is the main determinant of whether someone supports it or not), gender and social grade is identical.
And as we've seen on PB, views differ across the spectrum. I can't think of an issue I'm more conflicted about personally.
Hang on, I've now found some polling from 2017 that suggests there is a significant party bias to this. Very interesting that there was such a big swing from 2013 to 2017.
Age is still the biggest factor so I suspect that is to do with the transition of Conservatives to the pensioner party, and Labour to workers.
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
It would outflank Labour on closer alignment with Europe on the issues that people care about.
Kemi imputes that she knows how many thousands of people think, and evaluates them according to her personal opinions.
Kemi is a knee-jerking fool. This is no better than Farage or Anderson.
And yet this ban is what a vast majority of Brits want, according to polls. And several European countries - not notably Nazi - have banned them. And they are banned in multiple Muslim countries
So what exactly is your objection?
It would be interesting to see the left’s reaction if all Reform voters wives were suddenly dressed from head to toe in black sackcloths, except for when they were at home with the Reform male. I doubt it would be tossed aside as ‘their freedom to wear whatever they liked’
"Reform voters wives" sounds like the world's worst pornographic magazine.
"Air raid sirens sound across Israel Israel’s Home Front Command says that sirens are sounding in the Negev desert, Dimona area, Beersheba, Arad and Ashkelon.
Iran has vowed a heavy response to earlier Israeli strikes on two nuclear sites and two major steel plants".
My customers are in a two States that President Trump carried in 2024 on narrow margins: Arizona and Nevada.
In both cases, he won -I believe- because of two things.
Firstly, the inflation that ran through the developed world on the back of Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the chaos at the border that the Biden administration oversaw.
What Americans -particularly lower income Americans- did not vote for was to become poorer. Tariffs have pushed the prices of clothes up, without generating meaningful numbers of new manufacturing jobs. And now the wars have sent the price of petrol through the roof. (Which in turn will affect food and other prices.)
Retail electricity bills have yet to see the impact of rising energy prices, but that's coming too, and that's going to be ugly for lower income Americans finances.
My customers are lower income. In the past two weeks, they've cut their driving back sharply. We've seen Cancelled for Non-Payment skyrocket, as people choose to buy food or petrol over insurance.
If this isn't fixed, then the midterms will be horrible for the Republicans.
Agreed
Which is why Trump is under immense pressure to get the Straits reopened. Either with a deal, or by dropping lots of bombs
Whatever he chooses, he has to do it quickly
The thing is the damage has already been - opening up the straits is simply going to mitigate things.
Well, yes, but the damage - as is - can be painfully undone. But the longer the closure goes on, and the more Mid East energy infra that is destroyed, the worst the outcome for the entire world. I've seen sane voices on X predicting mass starvation and revolutions
Trump HAS to open the Straits before the very bad becomes quite horrifically bad
Does he? I mean, he doesn't care about poor people in Africa starving, or their governments being toppled in revolutions.
If he can get the voter disenfranchisement legislation through Congress he doesn't have to worry about the midterms much. He'll be able to stop enough Democrats and women from voting that he'll still win those.
Sure, it's a bit embarrassing, but I'm not seeing the imperative for Trump to reopen the Strait with urgency.
A hint of TDS in this comment, sorry
TDS is so widespread, it came up in my charity Trustee meeting this afternoon- where I genuinely got nervously chuckled at for saying, of course there isn't going to be WWIII. "You're confident" etc.
The hyperbole is off the scale.
It shows that a clear-eyed assessment of Donald Trump has (finally) gone viral when 'ok but he's not Hitler' and 'surely he won't start WW3' is about where equilibrium is now.
Yeah, but I basically now think anyone who randomly drops Donald Trump as an excuse into a private conversation is a twat.
"Air raid sirens sound across Israel Israel’s Home Front Command says that sirens are sounding in the Negev desert, Dimona area, Beersheba, Arad and Ashkelon.
Iran has vowed a heavy response to earlier Israeli strikes on two nuclear sites and two major steel plants".
There’s a cattiness to the Israel-Iran beef which reminds me a bit of the Balkan wars of the 90s. A real desire to hurt each other, more powerful than the desire to “win”.
Remember the Serbs shelling Dubrovnik. Same energy.
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
It would outflank Labour on closer alignment with Europe on the issues that people care about.
Kemi imputes that she knows how many thousands of people think, and evaluates them according to her personal opinions.
Kemi is a knee-jerking fool. This is no better than Farage or Anderson.
And yet this ban is what a vast majority of Brits want, according to polls. And several European countries - not notably Nazi - have banned them. And they are banned in multiple Muslim countries
So what exactly is your objection?
It would be interesting to see the left’s reaction if all Reform voters wives were suddenly dressed from head to toe in black sackcloths, except for when they were at home with the Reform male. I doubt it would be tossed aside as ‘their freedom to wear whatever they liked’
"Reform voters wives" sounds like the world's worst pornographic magazine.
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
They are, the LD vote was down 14% in that Sevenoaks ward, given Reform got 29% and the Tory vote was down 20%, without LDs tactically voting Tory it could have been a Reform gain not a Tory hold https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
@wooliedyed is far more forensic and correct on analysing these results than you will ever be
Oh dont make me blush Soneone will be along to tell you I talk a load of old cock
I find your analysis very informative and interesting whereas I could predict @HYUFD slant on polling before he makes it
Thank you. I make plenty of errors though and i have my biases. But definitely last nights Tory holds were nothing to do with tactical voting. In both cases in 2023 voters wanting to 'stop the Tory' had on,y one option - Lab in Axholme, LD in Sevenoaks. This time they had 4 options in Ax, 3 in Seven. 4 and 5 horse races (where those horses are the recognised national thoroughbreds) are rarely won on massive vote shares of 50% plus. 2 horse races are always won on 50% plus vote shares. Theres no rocket science or mystery to it.
That is simply not the case.
The issue is no longer 'Stop the Tory' the issue is 'Stop Reform' for Lab and LD voters in Tory held seats. Hence the Labour and LD votes were down in Axholme and Sevenoaks respectively, Reform were a clear second in both seats but the Tories held both seats despite the Tory vote being down about 20% in both seats in a straight Tory to Reform shift
And that's the difficult judgement for the Conservatives.
They can only be a Stop Reform party by clearly rejecting Reform. People Like Me (a minority, sure, but potentially Conservative-curious) aren't going to back the Conservatives if they are going to enable Nigel.
But if the price of stopping Nigel is permitting Keir? Ouch.
That's the price of being third, or worse, in the polls.
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
They are, the LD vote was down 14% in that Sevenoaks ward, given Reform got 29% and the Tory vote was down 20%, without LDs tactically voting Tory it could have been a Reform gain not a Tory hold https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
@wooliedyed is far more forensic and correct on analysing these results than you will ever be
Oh dont make me blush Soneone will be along to tell you I talk a load of old cock
I find your analysis very informative and interesting whereas I could predict @HYUFD slant on polling before he makes it
Thank you. I make plenty of errors though and i have my biases. But definitely last nights Tory holds were nothing to do with tactical voting. In both cases in 2023 voters wanting to 'stop the Tory' had on,y one option - Lab in Axholme, LD in Sevenoaks. This time they had 4 options in Ax, 3 in Seven. 4 and 5 horse races (where those horses are the recognised national thoroughbreds) are rarely won on massive vote shares of 50% plus. 2 horse races are always won on 50% plus vote shares. Theres no rocket science or mystery to it.
That is simply not the case.
The issue is no longer 'Stop the Tory' the issue is 'Stop Reform' for Lab and LD voters in Tory held seats. Hence the Labour and LD votes were down in Axholme and Sevenoaks respectively, Reform were a clear second in both seats but the Tories held both seats despite the Tory vote being down about 20% in both seats in a straight Tory to Reform shift
Its always possible the Tories are just more popular than Reform in Axholme and Halstead of course. But you do you
Bloomberg: Market declines sparked by the Iran war are morphing into a full-blown rout across Wall Street. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9% and sank into correction; the S&P 500 slipped for a fifth week, capping its longest losing streak since 2022; bonds fell, pushing the benchmark 30-year yield towards 5%
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
They are, the LD vote was down 14% in that Sevenoaks ward, given Reform got 29% and the Tory vote was down 20%, without LDs tactically voting Tory it could have been a Reform gain not a Tory hold https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
@wooliedyed is far more forensic and correct on analysing these results than you will ever be
Oh dont make me blush Soneone will be along to tell you I talk a load of old cock
I find your analysis very informative and interesting whereas I could predict @HYUFD slant on polling before he makes it
Thank you. I make plenty of errors though and i have my biases. But definitely last nights Tory holds were nothing to do with tactical voting. In both cases in 2023 voters wanting to 'stop the Tory' had on,y one option - Lab in Axholme, LD in Sevenoaks. This time they had 4 options in Ax, 3 in Seven. 4 and 5 horse races (where those horses are the recognised national thoroughbreds) are rarely won on massive vote shares of 50% plus. 2 horse races are always won on 50% plus vote shares. Theres no rocket science or mystery to it.
That is simply not the case.
The issue is no longer 'Stop the Tory' the issue is 'Stop Reform' for Lab and LD voters in Tory held seats. Hence the Labour and LD votes were down in Axholme and Sevenoaks respectively, Reform were a clear second in both seats but the Tories held both seats despite the Tory vote being down about 20% in both seats in a straight Tory to Reform shift
And that's the difficult judgement for the Conservatives.
They can only be a Stop Reform party by clearly rejecting Reform. People Like Me (a minority, sure, but potentially Conservative-curious) aren't going to back the Conservatives if they are going to enable Nigel.
But if the price of stopping Nigel is permitting Keir? Ouch.
That's the price of being third, or worse, in the polls.
Indeed, as long as Reform remain the main party of the right in polls, no longer the Conservatives, Conservative incumbent councillors and MPs can only hold on with Labour and LD tactical votes to beat Reform as you say.
If the Tories are only third or worse in May on seats won and behind Labour as well as Reform mutterings will start again over whether Cleverly would be a better bet to win those tactical votes than Kemi is. Would Cleverly take a post in a Farage Cabinet? Probably not. Would Kemi accept a senior ministerial position from Farage if a hung parliament where Reform won most seats? Very possibly
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
They are, the LD vote was down 14% in that Sevenoaks ward, given Reform got 29% and the Tory vote was down 20%, without LDs tactically voting Tory it could have been a Reform gain not a Tory hold https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
@wooliedyed is far more forensic and correct on analysing these results than you will ever be
Oh dont make me blush Soneone will be along to tell you I talk a load of old cock
I find your analysis very informative and interesting whereas I could predict @HYUFD slant on polling before he makes it
Thank you. I make plenty of errors though and i have my biases. But definitely last nights Tory holds were nothing to do with tactical voting. In both cases in 2023 voters wanting to 'stop the Tory' had on,y one option - Lab in Axholme, LD in Sevenoaks. This time they had 4 options in Ax, 3 in Seven. 4 and 5 horse races (where those horses are the recognised national thoroughbreds) are rarely won on massive vote shares of 50% plus. 2 horse races are always won on 50% plus vote shares. Theres no rocket science or mystery to it.
That is simply not the case.
The issue is no longer 'Stop the Tory' the issue is 'Stop Reform' for Lab and LD voters in Tory held seats. Hence the Labour and LD votes were down in Axholme and Sevenoaks respectively, Reform were a clear second in both seats but the Tories held both seats despite the Tory vote being down about 20% in both seats in a straight Tory to Reform shift
And that's the difficult judgement for the Conservatives.
They can only be a Stop Reform party by clearly rejecting Reform. People Like Me (a minority, sure, but potentially Conservative-curious) aren't going to back the Conservatives if they are going to enable Nigel.
But if the price of stopping Nigel is permitting Keir? Ouch.
That's the price of being third, or worse, in the polls.
Indeed, as long as Reform remain the main party of the right in polls, no longer the Conservatives, Conservative incumbent councillors and MPs can only hold on with Labour and LD tactical votes to beat Reform as you say.
If the Tories are only third or worse in May on seats won and behind Labour as well as Reform mutterings will start again over whether Cleverly would be a better bet to win those tactical votes than Kemi is
Seats won now is it? I thought it was NEV Goalposts being moved
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
It would outflank Labour on closer alignment with Europe on the issues that people care about.
Kemi imputes that she knows how many thousands of people think, and evaluates them according to her personal opinions.
Kemi is a knee-jerking fool. This is no better than Farage or Anderson.
And yet this ban is what a vast majority of Brits want, according to polls. And several European countries - not notably Nazi - have banned them. And they are banned in multiple Muslim countries
So what exactly is your objection?
It would be interesting to see the left’s reaction if all Reform voters wives were suddenly dressed from head to toe in black sackcloths, except for when they were at home with the Reform male. I doubt it would be tossed aside as ‘their freedom to wear whatever they liked’
"Reform voters wives" sounds like the world's worst pornographic magazine.
Leaders' Wives...
Not the same since Sam Cam.
Certainly given that her successor was Philip May.
(It's the end of term. Some wine may have been drunk. However, in tribute to @Leon, I have just bought some vintage silk cravats, to go with my developing "increasingly aged eccentric" professional persona.)
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
They are, the LD vote was down 14% in that Sevenoaks ward, given Reform got 29% and the Tory vote was down 20%, without LDs tactically voting Tory it could have been a Reform gain not a Tory hold https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
@wooliedyed is far more forensic and correct on analysing these results than you will ever be
Oh dont make me blush Soneone will be along to tell you I talk a load of old cock
I find your analysis very informative and interesting whereas I could predict @HYUFD slant on polling before he makes it
Thank you. I make plenty of errors though and i have my biases. But definitely last nights Tory holds were nothing to do with tactical voting. In both cases in 2023 voters wanting to 'stop the Tory' had on,y one option - Lab in Axholme, LD in Sevenoaks. This time they had 4 options in Ax, 3 in Seven. 4 and 5 horse races (where those horses are the recognised national thoroughbreds) are rarely won on massive vote shares of 50% plus. 2 horse races are always won on 50% plus vote shares. Theres no rocket science or mystery to it.
That is simply not the case.
The issue is no longer 'Stop the Tory' the issue is 'Stop Reform' for Lab and LD voters in Tory held seats. Hence the Labour and LD votes were down in Axholme and Sevenoaks respectively, Reform were a clear second in both seats but the Tories held both seats despite the Tory vote being down about 20% in both seats in a straight Tory to Reform shift
And that's the difficult judgement for the Conservatives.
They can only be a Stop Reform party by clearly rejecting Reform. People Like Me (a minority, sure, but potentially Conservative-curious) aren't going to back the Conservatives if they are going to enable Nigel.
But if the price of stopping Nigel is permitting Keir? Ouch.
That's the price of being third, or worse, in the polls.
Indeed, as long as Reform remain the main party of the right in polls, no longer the Conservatives, Conservative incumbent councillors and MPs can only hold on with Labour and LD tactical votes to beat Reform as you say.
If the Tories are only third or worse in May on seats won and behind Labour as well as Reform mutterings will start again over whether Cleverly would be a better bet to win those tactical votes than Kemi is. Would Cleverly take a post in a Farage Cabinet? Probably not. Would Kemi accept a senior ministerial position from Farage if a hung parliament where Reform won most seats? Very possibly
"Air raid sirens sound across Israel Israel’s Home Front Command says that sirens are sounding in the Negev desert, Dimona area, Beersheba, Arad and Ashkelon.
Iran has vowed a heavy response to earlier Israeli strikes on two nuclear sites and two major steel plants".
The Iranians are claiming to have blown up 6 USN landing craft and killed a number of marines in port and along the gulf coast. They tend not to lie about stuff if it can be easily proven.
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
They are, the LD vote was down 14% in that Sevenoaks ward, given Reform got 29% and the Tory vote was down 20%, without LDs tactically voting Tory it could have been a Reform gain not a Tory hold https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
@wooliedyed is far more forensic and correct on analysing these results than you will ever be
Oh dont make me blush Soneone will be along to tell you I talk a load of old cock
I find your analysis very informative and interesting whereas I could predict @HYUFD slant on polling before he makes it
Thank you. I make plenty of errors though and i have my biases. But definitely last nights Tory holds were nothing to do with tactical voting. In both cases in 2023 voters wanting to 'stop the Tory' had on,y one option - Lab in Axholme, LD in Sevenoaks. This time they had 4 options in Ax, 3 in Seven. 4 and 5 horse races (where those horses are the recognised national thoroughbreds) are rarely won on massive vote shares of 50% plus. 2 horse races are always won on 50% plus vote shares. Theres no rocket science or mystery to it.
That is simply not the case.
The issue is no longer 'Stop the Tory' the issue is 'Stop Reform' for Lab and LD voters in Tory held seats. Hence the Labour and LD votes were down in Axholme and Sevenoaks respectively, Reform were a clear second in both seats but the Tories held both seats despite the Tory vote being down about 20% in both seats in a straight Tory to Reform shift
And that's the difficult judgement for the Conservatives.
They can only be a Stop Reform party by clearly rejecting Reform. People Like Me (a minority, sure, but potentially Conservative-curious) aren't going to back the Conservatives if they are going to enable Nigel.
But if the price of stopping Nigel is permitting Keir? Ouch.
That's the price of being third, or worse, in the polls.
Indeed, as long as Reform remain the main party of the right in polls, no longer the Conservatives, Conservative incumbent councillors and MPs can only hold on with Labour and LD tactical votes to beat Reform as you say.
If the Tories are only third or worse in May on seats won and behind Labour as well as Reform mutterings will start again over whether Cleverly would be a better bet to win those tactical votes than Kemi is
Seats won now is it? I thought it was NEV Goalposts being moved
Bloomberg: Market declines sparked by the Iran war are morphing into a full-blown rout across Wall Street. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9% and sank into correction; the S&P 500 slipped for a fifth week, capping its longest losing streak since 2022; bonds fell, pushing the benchmark 30-year yield towards 5%
You ain't seen nothing yet. When countries actually run out of oil (which isn't far away for some) then business tends to grind to a halt. I'm not sure markets have fully grasped that that will happen.
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
They are, the LD vote was down 14% in that Sevenoaks ward, given Reform got 29% and the Tory vote was down 20%, without LDs tactically voting Tory it could have been a Reform gain not a Tory hold https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
@wooliedyed is far more forensic and correct on analysing these results than you will ever be
Oh dont make me blush Soneone will be along to tell you I talk a load of old cock
I find your analysis very informative and interesting whereas I could predict @HYUFD slant on polling before he makes it
Thank you. I make plenty of errors though and i have my biases. But definitely last nights Tory holds were nothing to do with tactical voting. In both cases in 2023 voters wanting to 'stop the Tory' had on,y one option - Lab in Axholme, LD in Sevenoaks. This time they had 4 options in Ax, 3 in Seven. 4 and 5 horse races (where those horses are the recognised national thoroughbreds) are rarely won on massive vote shares of 50% plus. 2 horse races are always won on 50% plus vote shares. Theres no rocket science or mystery to it.
That is simply not the case.
The issue is no longer 'Stop the Tory' the issue is 'Stop Reform' for Lab and LD voters in Tory held seats. Hence the Labour and LD votes were down in Axholme and Sevenoaks respectively, Reform were a clear second in both seats but the Tories held both seats despite the Tory vote being down about 20% in both seats in a straight Tory to Reform shift
And that's the difficult judgement for the Conservatives.
They can only be a Stop Reform party by clearly rejecting Reform. People Like Me (a minority, sure, but potentially Conservative-curious) aren't going to back the Conservatives if they are going to enable Nigel.
But if the price of stopping Nigel is permitting Keir? Ouch.
That's the price of being third, or worse, in the polls.
Indeed, as long as Reform remain the main party of the right in polls, no longer the Conservatives, Conservative incumbent councillors and MPs can only hold on with Labour and LD tactical votes to beat Reform as you say.
If the Tories are only third or worse in May on seats won and behind Labour as well as Reform mutterings will start again over whether Cleverly would be a better bet to win those tactical votes than Kemi is
Seats won now is it? I thought it was NEV Goalposts being moved
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
They are, the LD vote was down 14% in that Sevenoaks ward, given Reform got 29% and the Tory vote was down 20%, without LDs tactically voting Tory it could have been a Reform gain not a Tory hold https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
@wooliedyed is far more forensic and correct on analysing these results than you will ever be
Oh dont make me blush Soneone will be along to tell you I talk a load of old cock
I find your analysis very informative and interesting whereas I could predict @HYUFD slant on polling before he makes it
Thank you. I make plenty of errors though and i have my biases. But definitely last nights Tory holds were nothing to do with tactical voting. In both cases in 2023 voters wanting to 'stop the Tory' had on,y one option - Lab in Axholme, LD in Sevenoaks. This time they had 4 options in Ax, 3 in Seven. 4 and 5 horse races (where those horses are the recognised national thoroughbreds) are rarely won on massive vote shares of 50% plus. 2 horse races are always won on 50% plus vote shares. Theres no rocket science or mystery to it.
That is simply not the case.
The issue is no longer 'Stop the Tory' the issue is 'Stop Reform' for Lab and LD voters in Tory held seats. Hence the Labour and LD votes were down in Axholme and Sevenoaks respectively, Reform were a clear second in both seats but the Tories held both seats despite the Tory vote being down about 20% in both seats in a straight Tory to Reform shift
And that's the difficult judgement for the Conservatives.
They can only be a Stop Reform party by clearly rejecting Reform. People Like Me (a minority, sure, but potentially Conservative-curious) aren't going to back the Conservatives if they are going to enable Nigel.
But if the price of stopping Nigel is permitting Keir? Ouch.
That's the price of being third, or worse, in the polls.
Indeed, as long as Reform remain the main party of the right in polls, no longer the Conservatives, Conservative incumbent councillors and MPs can only hold on with Labour and LD tactical votes to beat Reform as you say.
If the Tories are only third or worse in May on seats won and behind Labour as well as Reform mutterings will start again over whether Cleverly would be a better bet to win those tactical votes than Kemi is
Seats won now is it? I thought it was NEV Goalposts being moved
He cannot move his bet which he will lose
What's the bet?
NEV leading to a VONC on Kemi and Cleverly taking over
Poignantly, I saw a woman in a full burqa today, not far from my flat. I cannot know her inner state but her body language expressed great unhappiness. Weighed down by these hideous deathly black shrouds. I do not believe any woman under 60 - if any - would voluntarily wear these appalling garments, They are symbols of misogyny and TOOLS of misogyny
Kemi is right. Ban them
It would outflank Labour on closer alignment with Europe on the issues that people care about.
Kemi imputes that she knows how many thousands of people think, and evaluates them according to her personal opinions.
Kemi is a knee-jerking fool. This is no better than Farage or Anderson.
And yet this ban is what a vast majority of Brits want, according to polls. And several European countries - not notably Nazi - have banned them. And they are banned in multiple Muslim countries
So what exactly is your objection?
It would be interesting to see the left’s reaction if all Reform voters wives were suddenly dressed from head to toe in black sackcloths, except for when they were at home with the Reform male. I doubt it would be tossed aside as ‘their freedom to wear whatever they liked’
"Reform voters wives" sounds like the world's worst pornographic magazine.
Leaders' Wives...
Not the same since Sam Cam.
Certainly given that her successor was Philip May.
(It's the end of term. Some wine may have been drunk. However, in tribute to @Leon, I have just bought some vintage silk cravats, to go with my developing "increasingly aged eccentric" professional persona.)
Good evening all. Was giving some thought earlier to the May locals, the Fisher prediction and Reforms prospects and a comment on here the other day about at what level Reforms vote starts to become inefficient. Last year in their annus mirabilis they got 30 or 32% NEV depending if youre a Thrasher or Beeb kinda girl. Likely theyll get a bit lower this year imo for reasons discussed at length previously. I think NEV just above mid twenties (say 26 or 27) might be cut off below which they start to lose a vast number of wards narrowly when running up against stronger areas for Red or Blue (say Sandwell or Solihull as examples or Barking and Bromley) Last night, for example, Reform hit good vote shares in Axholme and Sevenoaks but they were a long way from taking either. If Reform are going to 'confirm' the breakthrough of 2025 they need a strong turnout of their vote and a depressed turnout of the others. Id say theyll partially get the latter (esp Labour) but have they got the ground game to fire up the former? Maybe a lot of near misses await......
The Tories only held Axholme and Sevenoaks with heavy tactical voting for them to beat Reform from Labour and LD voters respectively.
As I said earlier only heavy tactical voting for incumbent councillors and MPs will likely enable them to hold off Reform insurgents
LDs in Sevenoaks are not voting Tory tactically to beat Reform when they would have considered themsrlves the challengers for the ward
They are, the LD vote was down 14% in that Sevenoaks ward, given Reform got 29% and the Tory vote was down 20%, without LDs tactically voting Tory it could have been a Reform gain not a Tory hold https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
@wooliedyed is far more forensic and correct on analysing these results than you will ever be
Oh dont make me blush Soneone will be along to tell you I talk a load of old cock
I find your analysis very informative and interesting whereas I could predict @HYUFD slant on polling before he makes it
Thank you. I make plenty of errors though and i have my biases. But definitely last nights Tory holds were nothing to do with tactical voting. In both cases in 2023 voters wanting to 'stop the Tory' had on,y one option - Lab in Axholme, LD in Sevenoaks. This time they had 4 options in Ax, 3 in Seven. 4 and 5 horse races (where those horses are the recognised national thoroughbreds) are rarely won on massive vote shares of 50% plus. 2 horse races are always won on 50% plus vote shares. Theres no rocket science or mystery to it.
That is simply not the case.
The issue is no longer 'Stop the Tory' the issue is 'Stop Reform' for Lab and LD voters in Tory held seats. Hence the Labour and LD votes were down in Axholme and Sevenoaks respectively, Reform were a clear second in both seats but the Tories held both seats despite the Tory vote being down about 20% in both seats in a straight Tory to Reform shift
And that's the difficult judgement for the Conservatives.
They can only be a Stop Reform party by clearly rejecting Reform. People Like Me (a minority, sure, but potentially Conservative-curious) aren't going to back the Conservatives if they are going to enable Nigel.
But if the price of stopping Nigel is permitting Keir? Ouch.
That's the price of being third, or worse, in the polls.
Indeed, as long as Reform remain the main party of the right in polls, no longer the Conservatives, Conservative incumbent councillors and MPs can only hold on with Labour and LD tactical votes to beat Reform as you say.
If the Tories are only third or worse in May on seats won and behind Labour as well as Reform mutterings will start again over whether Cleverly would be a better bet to win those tactical votes than Kemi is
Seats won now is it? I thought it was NEV Goalposts being moved
Comments
What is a 'STOMPING GROUND' when it's at home?
That way no one can dispute the outcome. The people speak, and the lawmakers have to obey
Referendums are arguably better for stuff like this than the complex constitutional decisions - tho I accept we have to endure them, for epochal issues like Brexit or Sindy
And I live alone and generally cook alone (and love it) which means my washing up takes five minutes
I'd probably feel very differently if I was cooking for six every night
But still. 1810 Spode plates for under a tenner? Madness. Fill your boots
https://www.facebook.com/BritishUpdates/posts/-breaking-nigel-farage-says-a-reform-government-will-ban-the-burka-and-all-face-/1381344610704558/
Or indeed as you say hopping into the SRV for the 200 yard journey to school during which they will spend all two minutes looking at their phones.
And Kemi is improving. And I really like the way she stood up for Nick Timothy. She did not fold to the Woke outrage. She is growing on me. So you may just possibly win back Reform voters like me
Ok, you can try to play it as the other side having no ideas and needing to copy you, but that's not always the tone take, they can sound genuinely outraged at the 'theft'.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: Qatar has declared force majeure on LNG contracts through May 2026, canceling obligations to customers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China.
Qatar is one of the world's largest LNG suppliers, accounting for 20% of global LNG production.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2037609069024804957
But what's the reason to think that she won't? Passively or actively, Kemi would have a choice to make in a hung parliament. And she has been much clearer on his dislike of Starmer than of Farage.
But not all US Jews support Israel's actions.
They are also concentrated in various cities and hardly affect the vote in most states/districts.
There is still no sign they are going back to the Conservatives, so unless Kemi starts seeing some progress on that front and unless the Tories are at least second in May some Tory MPs may think it would be better to replace her with Cleverly. He could at least hold the Sunak 2024 vote and win more anti Reform tactical votes in Tory seats from Labour and LD voters than she has been doing
ChrisO_wiki
@ChrisO_wiki
Unfortunately for Rubio (and the rest of us) the Iranians have every incentive, and likely the means too, to continue this thing for months in order to crush Trump's political standing. Trump has effectively given the Iranians the ability to control whether the Democrats are able to blow out his party in the midterms and put him on a tight rein afterwards. Why would Iran not take that opportunity?
https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2037593519607722437
By all means get up earlier in summer to make use of the daylight, but there's no need to change the clocks to do that.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20
Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, reported allegations of the illegal practice after the poll last month to Greater Manchester Police and the Electoral Commission.
And, btw, the Tories were 14% ahead of Reform who were only 9% ahead of the LDs so the LDs would have won if these imaginary LD tactical voters had stayed with their team
Actually, he probably *did* think Trump was a knob.
Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
Senedd Voting Intention:
PLC: 33% (-4)
RFM: 27% (+4)
LAB: 13% (+3)
GRN: 12% (-1)
CON: 7% (-3)
LDM: 5% (=)
Via
@YouGov
, 9-18 Mar.
Changes w/ 5-12 Jan.
My Seat Model:
PLC: 43
RFM: 30
LAB: 11
GRN: 7
CON: 4
LDM: 1
Soneone will be along to tell you I talk a load of old cock
Should it be made illegal to cover your face and body in public?
I know how I'd vote on that.
"The observers do not allege any verbal instruction or physical conduct that indicated one person was directing or coercing another regarding how to vote."
"The absence of this information means there is no remaining reasonable line of enquiry," police added.
If you're going to make that kind of allegation publicly (before going to the police or council), you've got to be damn sure.
4 and 5 horse races (where those horses are the recognised national thoroughbreds) are rarely won on massive vote shares of 50% plus. 2 horse races are always won on 50% plus vote shares. Theres no rocket science or mystery to it.
As to what happened yesterday, the first point was the high turnout - 45% - compared with 36% at the 2023 election. The Conservative vote was numerically down as was the LD vote but the big surprise was the Reform vote which was probably a combination of ex-Conservatives, some ex-LDs and non-voters though in what proportion I don't know.
The Conservatives polled 620 and 604 respectively but on a 20% higher turnout saw the number voting for the candidate fall to 561. The LD candidates polled 336 and 286 in 2023 and yesterday their candidate polled 266. You can crunch the numbers and make a determination of sorts.
Looking ahead to May, the clue will be in the turnout. There is plenty of evidence Reform benefits from higher turnout as more of those who previously abstained come out to support Farage's party so the Reform numbers will be ex-Conservatives plus non-voters before we get to anything tactical but the proportions will vary.
On the other hand, there are definitely women who don't want to wear the Burqa, and who feel obligated by the threat of being cast out of their community to do so.
I would be interested to see how religious Muslim women would vote if it was a secret ballot.
I loathe the idea of the burqua and believe it's very counter to western liberal values as it represents male control over women. But yes, live and let live.
The left is as intellectually pathetic as it is morally vacuous
And as we've seen on PB, views differ across the spectrum. I can't think of an issue I'm more conflicted about personally.
Not a good driver anymore!
20 minutes ago
Golf star Tiger Woods has been involved in a car crash in Florida, police have confirmed.
The holds werent astounding but i dont think they were 'flaccid' either.
The issue is no longer 'Stop the Tory' the issue is 'Stop Reform' for Lab and LD voters in Tory held seats. Hence the Labour and LD votes were down in Axholme and Sevenoaks respectively, Reform were a clear second in both seats but the Tories held both seats despite the Tory vote being down about 20% in both seats in a straight Tory to Reform shift
Age is still the biggest factor so I suspect that is to do with the transition of Conservatives to the pensioner party, and Labour to workers.
Could be most destructive weekend yet
"Air raid sirens sound across Israel
Israel’s Home Front Command says that sirens are sounding in the Negev desert, Dimona area, Beersheba, Arad and Ashkelon.
Iran has vowed a heavy response to earlier Israeli strikes on two nuclear sites and two major steel plants".
Remember the Serbs shelling Dubrovnik. Same energy.
Woods not injured apparently
They can only be a Stop Reform party by clearly rejecting Reform. People Like Me (a minority, sure, but potentially Conservative-curious) aren't going to back the Conservatives if they are going to enable Nigel.
But if the price of stopping Nigel is permitting Keir? Ouch.
That's the price of being third, or worse, in the polls.
Trump is immune from political gravity@annmarie
Bloomberg: Market declines sparked by the Iran war are morphing into a full-blown rout across Wall Street. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9% and sank into correction; the S&P 500 slipped for a fifth week, capping its longest losing streak since 2022; bonds fell, pushing the benchmark 30-year yield towards 5%
https://x.com/annmarie/status/2037633815296761856?s=20
If the Tories are only third or worse in May on seats won and behind Labour as well as Reform mutterings will start again over whether Cleverly would be a better bet to win those tactical votes than Kemi is. Would Cleverly take a post in a Farage Cabinet? Probably not. Would Kemi accept a senior ministerial position from Farage if a hung parliament where Reform won most seats? Very possibly
Ukraine is working efficiently.
40 percent of russia’s oil exporting capacity has been knocked out, forcing putin to ban gasoline exports from 1 April. Bye bye export revenues.
The russian warship may finally be about to sink.
https://bsky.app/profile/anderseide.bsky.social/post/3mi2vsv3m7c2z
Goalposts being moved
(It's the end of term. Some wine may have been drunk. However, in tribute to @Leon, I have just bought some vintage silk cravats, to go with my developing "increasingly aged eccentric" professional persona.)
When countries actually run out of oil (which isn't far away for some) then business tends to grind to a halt.
I'm not sure markets have fully grasped that that will happen.
Except the USA.
Maybe Trump is a genius?
I shall imagine you this way henceforth.