The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This to me is the biggest tragedy of all. Iran at grassroots was turning inexorably westwards. Probably still is. Targeted intervention against some regime goons and assets during the massacres earlier this year might even have helped the revolution and weakened the regime’s grip. But this Ill conceived balls-up of a war has not only buggered up the global economy, it’s put the IRGC in de facto power in Iran and cemented the misery of its population.
This sort of shit won't help.
Pete Hegseth, at today's Christian Prayer & Worship Service at the Pentagon, prays for Almighty God to "pour out your wrath" and "break the teeth of the ungodly." He begs the Almighty to sanction "overwhelming violence" against "those who deserve no mercy" https://x.com/mtracey/status/2036951986109641083
A $900 electric bill sounds a lot for one month, especially given their prices are roughly half ours. Unless MAGA-woman is running her own datacentre, she should get the meter checked.
A $900 electric bill sounds a lot for one month, especially given their prices are roughly half ours. Unless MAGA-woman is running her own datacentre, she should get the meter checked.
Shes clearly a moron which sums up the MAGA cult. They voted for Trump because they wanted the cruelty and hate dished out to others , they get off on seeing families ripped apart and people who do the jobs most Americans didn’t want to do deported so fxck them . I hope they lose their homes , become homeless and their lives become full of misery .
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
In what way is it a winnable war? The world spent 40+ years trying to tame Afghanistan and that was a far poorer smaller country...
The Afghanistan war was won in 2001 when the Taliban were removed and a few years later when Bin Laden was killed. The mistake was Biden withdrawing US forces which let the Taliban back not the invasion
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
In what way is it a winnable war? The world spent 40+ years trying to tame Afghanistan and that was a far poorer smaller country...
The Afghanistan war was won in 2001 when the Taliban were removed and a few years later when Bin Laden was killed. The mistake was Biden withdrawing US forces which let the Taliban back not the invasion
A curious definition of win there!
After 20 years of bloodshed we scuttled out, leaving the country to the Taliban.
Interesting question of definition here.
Clearly nobody would say Hitler won the war against France in 1940 and then withdrew forces in 1944. Or Napoleon won the war against Russia and the mistake was withdrawing his troops from Moscow.
But we’d probably agree that Britain won the Indian mutiny even though it had to station troops in India and eventually withdrew decades later. Or the USSR won the war in Eastern Europe in 1945 but then withdrew forces in 1990.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
In what way is it a winnable war? The world spent 40+ years trying to tame Afghanistan and that was a far poorer smaller country...
The Afghanistan war was won in 2001 when the Taliban were removed and a few years later when Bin Laden was killed. The mistake was Biden withdrawing US forces which let the Taliban back not the invasion
It wasn't won was it
It was won and would still be won had US forces stayed
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
In what way is it a winnable war? The world spent 40+ years trying to tame Afghanistan and that was a far poorer smaller country...
The Afghanistan war was won in 2001 when the Taliban were removed and a few years later when Bin Laden was killed. The mistake was Biden withdrawing US forces which let the Taliban back not the invasion
It wasn't won was it
I sometimes think that WWII has skewed our view of what winning a war actually is. Most historical wars didn't end in unconditional surrender. They ended when one side had achieved enough of their objectives to make carrying on not worth the cost and then offering the other side peace terms that were liveable if not comfortable.
‘ I did not expect to find myself nodding along to Tzipi Livni, Israel's former, and hawkish, Foreign Minister. Yet here we are. She is right on this: A State that treats the rule of law as optional, and human rights as conditional on race or nationality, irreparably corrodes itself. The decades-long project of violently subjugating Palestinians has not only harmed its victims. It has consumed Israel, from within.’
Yep, I’d have assumed that she’d be completely on board with the Bibi project. However it perhaps connects to all those supine GOP pols in the US; when your belief system gives you what you thought you wanted and results in less than favourable outcomes (and heaven forbid threatens your own prosperity and wellbeing), maybe you discover moralty and a spine. Israel is not a safe haven for Jews, it is less popular internationally than it has ever been and its military supremacy depends on a senile, capricious POTUS, all that might give any but the most Zionist ethno fascist pause for thought.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
That's a good article. It's the sort of thing Trump could have done with reading before he started this debacle.
I've just reached this bit. We appear to be completely fucked now.
The GCC States will tell you that’s total bollocks.
US media simply hates Trump and works backwards from there. They want the US to ‘lose’ this conflict.
Preventing Iran from blocking Hormuz depends on the United States comprehensively defeating Iran. They don't appear to be on track to do so and the Gulf States have no influence on them to do so. Otherwise the Gulf States best hope of preventing Iran damaging their countries is to do a deal with Iran, much as they hate the country.
That's a good article. It's the sort of thing Trump could have done with reading before he started this debacle.
I've just reached this bit. We appear to be completely fucked now.
That's not really true on any time horizon longer than about nine months.
If they blockaded the Straits, then the Gulf States would find ways to get oil and gas out via pipelines. It would be expensive, sure, but then this is the energy industry and we're mostly talking about empty desert.
(Gas would be harder, of course, because you would need to build new liquification terminals on the Red Sea and West of the Straits. But it's not impossible.)
I note the Saudi East West pipeline was built in 1981 as a contingency for Hormuz being blocked, so that fits. Another line was added and the whole thing was upgraded to a nominal 7 million barrels per day. AIUI the constraint now is the port facilities the oil ends up can handle 4 mbpd. As 2mbpd go through the port normally, the uplift is only 2mbpd - useful but not solving the high problem. Also not the best place to export from as the southern end of the Red Sea is also blocked by the Houthis.
So you would need multiple redundant pipelines for crude oil and gas as well as massive investments in port and handling facilities. This feels like several years development even at an accelerated pace. It would still leave refined oil and fertilizer needing to go through Hormuz.
I think we can say Iran will never again have the level of leverage it has now. But that leverage is critical. And it will still remain in the future at a lower level.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This to me is the biggest tragedy of all. Iran at grassroots was turning inexorably westwards. Probably still is. Targeted intervention against some regime goons and assets during the massacres earlier this year might even have helped the revolution and weakened the regime’s grip. But this Ill conceived balls-up of a war has not only buggered up the global economy, it’s put the IRGC in de facto power in Iran and cemented the misery of its population.
The strikes should have been launched when the protests were at their height, yes
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
In what way is it a winnable war? The world spent 40+ years trying to tame Afghanistan and that was a far poorer smaller country...
The Afghanistan war was won in 2001 when the Taliban were removed and a few years later when Bin Laden was killed. The mistake was Biden withdrawing US forces which let the Taliban back not the invasion
It wasn't won was it
I sometimes think that WWII has skewed our view of what winning a war actually is. Most historical wars didn't end in unconditional surrender. They ended when one side had achieved enough of their objectives to make carrying on not worth the cost and then offering the other side peace terms that were liveable if not comfortable.
That is correct. Very few wars end with the complete destruction of the opposing state. Quite often a war can be won, by one side, even if the parties simply revert to the ante bellum status quo (I would argue, the UK won the 1812 War, for example).
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
If it looks like he is losing, and from some perspectives it looks like he might be, you do know he will use nukes. He has already hinted at this. I am fairly confident Bibi would be right behind him on that too.
There is no filter, there are no lengths to which this man won't go to save face.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This to me is the biggest tragedy of all. Iran at grassroots was turning inexorably westwards. Probably still is. Targeted intervention against some regime goons and assets during the massacres earlier this year might even have helped the revolution and weakened the regime’s grip. But this Ill conceived balls-up of a war has not only buggered up the global economy, it’s put the IRGC in de facto power in Iran and cemented the misery of its population.
This sort of shit won't help.
Pete Hegseth, at today's Christian Prayer & Worship Service at the Pentagon, prays for Almighty God to "pour out your wrath" and "break the teeth of the ungodly." He begs the Almighty to sanction "overwhelming violence" against "those who deserve no mercy" https://x.com/mtracey/status/2036951986109641083
Careful what you pray for, Pete.
I'm unconvinced that God regularly smites like that, but if He did...
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
In what way is it a winnable war? The world spent 40+ years trying to tame Afghanistan and that was a far poorer smaller country...
The Afghanistan war was won in 2001 when the Taliban were removed and a few years later when Bin Laden was killed. The mistake was Biden withdrawing US forces which let the Taliban back not the invasion
A curious definition of win there!
After 20 years of bloodshed we scuttled out, leaving the country to the Taliban.
We should never have scuttled out, western troops should still be in Afghanistan
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
In what way is it a winnable war? The world spent 40+ years trying to tame Afghanistan and that was a far poorer smaller country...
The Afghanistan war was won in 2001 when the Taliban were removIed and a few years later when Bin Laden was killed. The mistake was Biden withdrawing US forces which let the Taliban back not the invasion
It wasn't won was it
I think the Taliban could have been contained indefinitely. Having gone in, I think the USA owed it to the Afghans not to just abandon them. Now, Afghan women are essentially chattel slaves.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This to me is the biggest tragedy of all. Iran at grassroots was turning inexorably westwards. Probably still is. Targeted intervention against some regime goons and assets during the massacres earlier this year might even have helped the revolution and weakened the regime’s grip. But this Ill conceived balls-up of a war has not only buggered up the global economy, it’s put the IRGC in de facto power in Iran and cemented the misery of its population.
This sort of shit won't help.
Pete Hegseth, at today's Christian Prayer & Worship Service at the Pentagon, prays for Almighty God to "pour out your wrath" and "break the teeth of the ungodly." He begs the Almighty to sanction "overwhelming violence" against "those who deserve no mercy" https://x.com/mtracey/status/2036951986109641083
Increasingly looks like one theocracy fighting two other theocracies.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Is it really a winnable war ? How do you know that ?
No chance they win anything, would just be Iraq etc on steroids. They would be leaving years later tails between their legs, trillions wasted , lots of casaulties and nothing to show for it. It si Lose/Lose for Trump now.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
In what way is it a winnable war? The world spent 40+ years trying to tame Afghanistan and that was a far poorer smaller country...
The Afghanistan war was won in 2001 when the Taliban were removed and a few years later when Bin Laden was killed. The mistake was Biden withdrawing US forces which let the Taliban back not the invasion
A curious definition of win there!
After 20 years of bloodshed we scuttled out, leaving the country to the Taliban.
Afghanistan could be divided into two wars.
Al Qaeda were defeated by western forces.
The Taliban defeated the attempt by the west to impose a different sort of government and society.
As long as Taliban controlled Afghanistan sticks to oppressing women and fighting with Pakistan nobody in the West will be bothered.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
Posted mainly for this detail at the end of the story: Alid’s asylum application was rejected by the Home Office three weeks after the killing. A monument to Whitehall efficiency.
I’m sure it will be approved on appeal, with an apology and compensation.
On topic. All very well, and good to see, but I draw little comfort from it. He's in now. Just hope (i) we get through it and (ii) the US reclaims its marbles afterwards. I also hope there's an almighty backlash and all the people who enabled this or collaborated in it are made to answer for it.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
In what way is it a winnable war? The world spent 40+ years trying to tame Afghanistan and that was a far poorer smaller country...
The Afghanistan war was won in 2001 when the Taliban were removed and a few years later when Bin Laden was killed. The mistake was Biden withdrawing US forces which let the Taliban back not the invasion
How is a war won if you need troops there to keep your puppet government in power?
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
In what way is it a winnable war? The world spent 40+ years trying to tame Afghanistan and that was a far poorer smaller country...
The Afghanistan war was won in 2001 when the Taliban were removed and a few years later when Bin Laden was killed. The mistake was Biden withdrawing US forces which let the Taliban back not the invasion
How is a war won if you need troops there to keep your puppet government in power?
Quite simple, you keep them there indefinitely. As John McCain rightly said for 100 years or more if needed
So you simply occupy the country and put in place a puppet govt that does your bidding.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
So achieve the impossible and the war is won. You do know that it’s the fear of losing a $2bn LNG tanker that is stopping ships from using the strait
Price Watch: Travelled from south Devon to York, then Leeds then on to Lincs yesterday.
Cheapest diesel was Aldi in Leeds at 165.9p. Most expensive was one of the motorway service stations at 198.9p
Mostly c.175p
Maybe Trump can take out motorway service stations.
Greedy buggers.
I thought that Reeves' response to this economic shock was to talk about Truss (again) and then claim she was going after profit gougers (as if the increase in costs were not real and the problem she should be looking to address)?
She needs to temporarily reduce fuel duty, paid for by the additional VAT, to stop the country grinding to a halt. And if that causes Ed to resign that should be regarded as a bonus by all sane people.
We’ve been repeatedly told by PBers that fuel use is inelastic; so why would cutting fuel duty have an effect on consumption? And what taxes would you raise to make up for it?
The kind of short-sighted policy is why we have an enormous debt and why firms and households haven’t shifted away from fossil fuels, leaving us incredibly vulnerable to this kind of disaster.
If we’re going to cut any taxes it should be VAT on business/industrial electricity. Drop it from 20% to 5%.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
So achieve the impossible and the war is won. You do know that it’s the fear of losing a $2bn LNG tanker that is stopping ships from using the strait
The media hysteria against Starmer on this war is bonkers.
He’s kept us out of this stupid war and that’s all that matters. We’d be objectively worse off if we had literally any other leader.
What this war and Starmer's response have highlighted, to the genuine surprise of many pundits, is the pathetic state of our armed forces after decades of Tory defence cuts.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
In what way is it a winnable war? The world spent 40+ years trying to tame Afghanistan and that was a far poorer smaller country...
The Afghanistan war was won in 2001 when the Taliban were removIed and a few years later when Bin Laden was killed. The mistake was Biden withdrawing US forces which let the Taliban back not the invasion
It wasn't won was it
I think the Taliban could have been contained indefinitely. Having gone in, I think the USA owed it to the Afghans not to just abandon them. Now, Afghan women are essentially chattel slaves.
The Afghans weren't abandoned to the Taliban, they wanted the Taliban.
Perhaps if western forces had stayed for 50 years a new generation would have grown up thinking differently.
I doubt it though.
No matter how much western money was poured in Afghanistan would always have been both deprived and corrupt and religion would have continued to be the only unifying factor.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This to me is the biggest tragedy of all. Iran at grassroots was turning inexorably westwards. Probably still is. Targeted intervention against some regime goons and assets during the massacres earlier this year might even have helped the revolution and weakened the regime’s grip. But this Ill conceived balls-up of a war has not only buggered up the global economy, it’s put the IRGC in de facto power in Iran and cemented the misery of its population.
This sort of shit won't help.
Pete Hegseth, at today's Christian Prayer & Worship Service at the Pentagon, prays for Almighty God to "pour out your wrath" and "break the teeth of the ungodly." He begs the Almighty to sanction "overwhelming violence" against "those who deserve no mercy" https://x.com/mtracey/status/2036951986109641083
Frightening. In two ways - that's the sort of prayer that might just possibly boomerang onto his own head.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
So achieve the impossible and the war is won. You do know that it’s the fear of losing a $2bn LNG tanker that is stopping ships from using the strait
Hormuz was kept open despite Iranian threats and attacks in the 1980s.
That required accepting risks and costs and sometimes casualties.
The same applies now.
Both Trump and the Gulf Arabs have no shortage of money, let them spend it now.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This to me is the biggest tragedy of all. Iran at grassroots was turning inexorably westwards. Probably still is. Targeted intervention against some regime goons and assets during the massacres earlier this year might even have helped the revolution and weakened the regime’s grip. But this Ill conceived balls-up of a war has not only buggered up the global economy, it’s put the IRGC in de facto power in Iran and cemented the misery of its population.
This sort of shit won't help.
Pete Hegseth, at today's Christian Prayer & Worship Service at the Pentagon, prays for Almighty God to "pour out your wrath" and "break the teeth of the ungodly." He begs the Almighty to sanction "overwhelming violence" against "those who deserve no mercy" https://x.com/mtracey/status/2036951986109641083
He is the very antithesis of Christ and just a nasty piece of work
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
In what way is it a winnable war? The world spent 40+ years trying to tame Afghanistan and that was a far poorer smaller country...
The Afghanistan war was won in 2001 when the Taliban were removed and a few years later when Bin Laden was killed. The mistake was Biden withdrawing US forces which let the Taliban back not the invasion
It wasn't won was it
It was won and would still be won had US forces stayed
This is pure @HYUFD - it was won and would be still won if !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This to me is the biggest tragedy of all. Iran at grassroots was turning inexorably westwards. Probably still is. Targeted intervention against some regime goons and assets during the massacres earlier this year might even have helped the revolution and weakened the regime’s grip. But this Ill conceived balls-up of a war has not only buggered up the global economy, it’s put the IRGC in de facto power in Iran and cemented the misery of its population.
This sort of shit won't help.
Pete Hegseth, at today's Christian Prayer & Worship Service at the Pentagon, prays for Almighty God to "pour out your wrath" and "break the teeth of the ungodly." He begs the Almighty to sanction "overwhelming violence" against "those who deserve no mercy" https://x.com/mtracey/status/2036951986109641083
He is the very antithesis of Christ and just a nasty piece of work
Mr. NorthWales, hmm. Wasn't one of the two commandments of Jesus to love thy neighbour as thyself?
But I'm just a godless atheist, so I must be mistaken.
Price Watch: Travelled from south Devon to York, then Leeds then on to Lincs yesterday.
Cheapest diesel was Aldi in Leeds at 165.9p. Most expensive was one of the motorway service stations at 198.9p
Mostly c.175p
Maybe Trump can take out motorway service stations.
Greedy buggers.
I thought that Reeves' response to this economic shock was to talk about Truss (again) and then claim she was going after profit gougers (as if the increase in costs were not real and the problem she should be looking to address)?
She needs to temporarily reduce fuel duty, paid for by the additional VAT, to stop the country grinding to a halt. And if that causes Ed to resign that should be regarded as a bonus by all sane people.
We’ve been repeatedly told by PBers that fuel use is inelastic; so why would cutting fuel duty have an effect on consumption? And what taxes would you raise to make up for it?
The kind of short-sighted policy is why we have an enormous debt and why firms and households haven’t shifted away from fossil fuels, leaving us incredibly vulnerable to this kind of disaster.
If we’re going to cut any taxes it should be VAT on business/industrial electricity. Drop it from 20% to 5%.
How would that save companies money - the VAT I pay on my company electricity bill is a deduction against the VAT I pay HMRC.
The only people who would be impacted are very small firms who sell to the general public and aren’t VAT registered or use turnover based flat rate VAT
Repost, but I enjoyed the video a lot and systems collapse is on-topic:
Not a usual channel of mine to watch but I've had the first book on 1177 BC on my radar for a while, and Eric Cline's 103 minute video about the Late Bronze Age Collapse is very interesting. And maybe relevant because there's a surprisingly strong trade network that ends, with some powers diminished and others wiped out entirely.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
In what way is it a winnable war? The world spent 40+ years trying to tame Afghanistan and that was a far poorer smaller country...
The Afghanistan war was won in 2001 when the Taliban were removed and a few years later when Bin Laden was killed. The mistake was Biden withdrawing US forces which let the Taliban back not the invasion
How is a war won if you need troops there to keep your puppet government in power?
Exactly. It’s an occupation in that case.
Quite a few wars that are won, result in occupation, and governments maintained by an army of occupation, as noted upthread.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
And how does America do that? Specifically.
By escorting shipping through Hormuz.
The method which has been used for centuries to protect shipping.
Any Iranian attacks are defended against and responded to.
Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War. It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.
Operation Prime Chance (August 1987 – June 1989) was a United States Special Operations Command operation intended to protect U.S.-flagged oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran–Iraq War. The operation took place roughly at the same time as Operation Earnest Will (July 1987 – September 1988), the largely naval effort to escort the tankers through the Persian Gulf. The operation was begun after the mining of the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti oil tanker Bridgeton.
Operation Nimble Archer was the 19 October 1987 attack on two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf by United States Navy forces. The attack was a response to Iran's missile attack on MV Sea Isle City, a reflagged Kuwaiti oil tanker at anchor off Kuwait, which had occurred three days earlier. The action occurred during Operation Earnest Will, the effort to protect Kuwaiti shipping amid the Iran–Iraq War.
Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier. It took place during the US presidency of Ronald Reagan and the rule of Supreme Leader of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini.
Price Watch: Travelled from south Devon to York, then Leeds then on to Lincs yesterday.
Cheapest diesel was Aldi in Leeds at 165.9p. Most expensive was one of the motorway service stations at 198.9p
Mostly c.175p
Maybe Trump can take out motorway service stations.
Greedy buggers.
I thought that Reeves' response to this economic shock was to talk about Truss (again) and then claim she was going after profit gougers (as if the increase in costs were not real and the problem she should be looking to address)?
She needs to temporarily reduce fuel duty, paid for by the additional VAT, to stop the country grinding to a halt. And if that causes Ed to resign that should be regarded as a bonus by all sane people.
We’ve been repeatedly told by PBers that fuel use is inelastic; so why would cutting fuel duty have an effect on consumption? And what taxes would you raise to make up for it?
The kind of short-sighted policy is why we have an enormous debt and why firms and households haven’t shifted away from fossil fuels, leaving us incredibly vulnerable to this kind of disaster.
If we’re going to cut any taxes it should be VAT on business/industrial electricity. Drop it from 20% to 5%.
Inelastic simply means that consumption falls less than proportionately to the price rise. As clearly some car journeys are required (eg driving to work) so you can't easily cut back or substitute like you can on leisure trips.
Blimey, they're certainly getting soft on Iranian terror cells nowadays.
Gary Buckley™ @myrddenbuckley · 40m Two men arrested in connection with a suspected arson attack on four ambulances operated by a Jewish charity in north London have been released on bail.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
So achieve the impossible and the war is won. You do know that it’s the fear of losing a $2bn LNG tanker that is stopping ships from using the strait
Hormuz was kept open despite Iranian threats and attacks in the 1980s.
That required accepting risks and costs and sometimes casualties.
The same applies now.
Both Trump and the Gulf Arabs have no shortage of money, let them spend it now.
I entirely agree. The ships are not moving, because Lloyds of London is charging about 3% of the value of the cargo as an insurance premium, and that makes it uneconomic. The ships could move if the USA was prepared to underwrite the cost of insurance, so that premiums were reduced to an economic level. There was talk about this, earlier in the war, but presumably, it smacked too much of thinking about the problem intelligently to appeal to the Trump administration.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
So achieve the impossible and the war is won. You do know that it’s the fear of losing a $2bn LNG tanker that is stopping ships from using the strait
Hormuz was kept open despite Iranian threats and attacks in the 1980s.
That required accepting risks and costs and sometimes casualties.
The same applies now.
Both Trump and the Gulf Arabs have no shortage of money, let them spend it now.
Gas has made that much harder; as has the availability of mass produced drones, so the example of the 80s isn't 100% relevant.
But the real fear lurking in the background is an Iranian version of Israel's Sampson strategy - except that in this case all it would require is multiple attacks on the Qatar gas production facilities.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
And how does America do that? Specifically.
By escorting shipping through Hormuz.
The method which has been used for centuries to protect shipping.
Any Iranian attacks are defended against and responded to.
Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War. It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.
Operation Prime Chance (August 1987 – June 1989) was a United States Special Operations Command operation intended to protect U.S.-flagged oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran–Iraq War. The operation took place roughly at the same time as Operation Earnest Will (July 1987 – September 1988), the largely naval effort to escort the tankers through the Persian Gulf. The operation was begun after the mining of the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti oil tanker Bridgeton.
Operation Nimble Archer was the 19 October 1987 attack on two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf by United States Navy forces. The attack was a response to Iran's missile attack on MV Sea Isle City, a reflagged Kuwaiti oil tanker at anchor off Kuwait, which had occurred three days earlier. The action occurred during Operation Earnest Will, the effort to protect Kuwaiti shipping amid the Iran–Iraq War.
Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier. It took place during the US presidency of Ronald Reagan and the rule of Supreme Leader of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This to me is the biggest tragedy of all. Iran at grassroots was turning inexorably westwards. Probably still is. Targeted intervention against some regime goons and assets during the massacres earlier this year might even have helped the revolution and weakened the regime’s grip. But this Ill conceived balls-up of a war has not only buggered up the global economy, it’s put the IRGC in de facto power in Iran and cemented the misery of its population.
This sort of shit won't help.
Pete Hegseth, at today's Christian Prayer & Worship Service at the Pentagon, prays for Almighty God to "pour out your wrath" and "break the teeth of the ungodly." He begs the Almighty to sanction "overwhelming violence" against "those who deserve no mercy" https://x.com/mtracey/status/2036951986109641083
He is the very antithesis of Christ and just a nasty piece of work
Mr. NorthWales, hmm. Wasn't one of the two commandments of Jesus to love thy neighbour as thyself?
But I'm just a godless atheist, so I must be mistaken.
More than that. Love your enemies; do good to those who hate you. (Luke 6:27)
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
And how does America do that? Specifically.
By escorting shipping through Hormuz.
The method which has been used for centuries to protect shipping.
Any Iranian attacks are defended against and responded to.
Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War. It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.
Operation Prime Chance (August 1987 – June 1989) was a United States Special Operations Command operation intended to protect U.S.-flagged oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran–Iraq War. The operation took place roughly at the same time as Operation Earnest Will (July 1987 – September 1988), the largely naval effort to escort the tankers through the Persian Gulf. The operation was begun after the mining of the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti oil tanker Bridgeton.
Operation Nimble Archer was the 19 October 1987 attack on two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf by United States Navy forces. The attack was a response to Iran's missile attack on MV Sea Isle City, a reflagged Kuwaiti oil tanker at anchor off Kuwait, which had occurred three days earlier. The action occurred during Operation Earnest Will, the effort to protect Kuwaiti shipping amid the Iran–Iraq War.
Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier. It took place during the US presidency of Ronald Reagan and the rule of Supreme Leader of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini.
That worked well when ships were used to attack over ships, it doesn’t work so well now when it’s going to be masses of cheap drones fired to over power defences knowing that only 1-5 of the 500 you send need to get through
The media hysteria against Starmer on this war is bonkers.
He’s kept us out of this stupid war and that’s all that matters. We’d be objectively worse off if we had literally any other leader.
What this war and Starmer's response have highlighted, to the genuine surprise of many pundits, is the pathetic state of our armed forces after decades of Tory defence cuts.
Decades actually involves the coalition government and previous labour ones
It also applies across Europe, because everyone believed in the peace dividend and NATO always being there funded largely by the US
The UK is not alone in this problem but it cannot be ignored and defence spending will be needed in the many billions
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
In what way is it a winnable war? The world spent 40+ years trying to tame Afghanistan and that was a far poorer smaller country...
The Afghanistan war was won in 2001 when the Taliban were removed and a few years later when Bin Laden was killed. The mistake was Biden withdrawing US forces which let the Taliban back not the invasion
It wasn't won was it
I sometimes think that WWII has skewed our view of what winning a war actually is. Most historical wars didn't end in unconditional surrender. They ended when one side had achieved enough of their objectives to make carrying on not worth the cost and then offering the other side peace terms that were liveable if not comfortable.
The trouble is the Palestinians have always rejected any peace terms offered.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Exactly, I have zero respect for any of the remaining few Trump-adjacent apologists on PB.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
And how does America do that? Specifically.
By escorting shipping through Hormuz.
The method which has been used for centuries to protect shipping.
Any Iranian attacks are defended against and responded to.
Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War. It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.
Operation Prime Chance (August 1987 – June 1989) was a United States Special Operations Command operation intended to protect U.S.-flagged oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran–Iraq War. The operation took place roughly at the same time as Operation Earnest Will (July 1987 – September 1988), the largely naval effort to escort the tankers through the Persian Gulf. The operation was begun after the mining of the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti oil tanker Bridgeton.
Operation Nimble Archer was the 19 October 1987 attack on two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf by United States Navy forces. The attack was a response to Iran's missile attack on MV Sea Isle City, a reflagged Kuwaiti oil tanker at anchor off Kuwait, which had occurred three days earlier. The action occurred during Operation Earnest Will, the effort to protect Kuwaiti shipping amid the Iran–Iraq War.
Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier. It took place during the US presidency of Ronald Reagan and the rule of Supreme Leader of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini.
That worked well when ships were used to attack over ships, it doesn’t work so well now when it’s going to be masses of cheap drones fired to over power defences knowing that only 1-5 of the 500 you send need to get through
Sure. One was to be willing to tolerate casualties. That's a feature of warfare. That's a good reason to think long and hard about going to war (and thinking is not what this administration does), but once you fight, you have to go all in.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
And how does America do that? Specifically.
By escorting shipping through Hormuz.
The method which has been used for centuries to protect shipping.
Any Iranian attacks are defended against and responded to.
Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War. It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.
Operation Prime Chance (August 1987 – June 1989) was a United States Special Operations Command operation intended to protect U.S.-flagged oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran–Iraq War. The operation took place roughly at the same time as Operation Earnest Will (July 1987 – September 1988), the largely naval effort to escort the tankers through the Persian Gulf. The operation was begun after the mining of the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti oil tanker Bridgeton.
Operation Nimble Archer was the 19 October 1987 attack on two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf by United States Navy forces. The attack was a response to Iran's missile attack on MV Sea Isle City, a reflagged Kuwaiti oil tanker at anchor off Kuwait, which had occurred three days earlier. The action occurred during Operation Earnest Will, the effort to protect Kuwaiti shipping amid the Iran–Iraq War.
Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier. It took place during the US presidency of Ronald Reagan and the rule of Supreme Leader of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini.
That worked well when ships were used to attack over ships, it doesn’t work so well now when it’s going to be masses of cheap drones fired to over power defences knowing that only 1-5 of the 500 you send need to get through
Sure. One was to be willing to tolerate casualties. That's a feature of warfare. That's a good reason to think long and hard about going to war (and thinking is not what this administration does), but once you fight, you have to go all in.
Tankers crew aren't combatants. Would you be prepared to pilot a bulk LNG carrier (aka floating bomb) through the strait ?
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
So achieve the impossible and the war is won. You do know that it’s the fear of losing a $2bn LNG tanker that is stopping ships from using the strait
Hormuz was kept open despite Iranian threats and attacks in the 1980s.
That required accepting risks and costs and sometimes casualties.
The same applies now.
Both Trump and the Gulf Arabs have no shortage of money, let them spend it now.
I entirely agree. The ships are not moving, because Lloyds of London is charging about 3% of the value of the cargo as an insurance premium, and that makes it uneconomic. The ships could move if the USA was prepared to underwrite the cost of insurance, so that premiums were reduced to an economic level. There was talk about this, earlier in the war, but presumably, it smacked too much of thinking about the problem intelligently to appeal to the Trump administration.
Just when some top notch 'dealmaking' skills are urgently needed it appears they have gone walkies.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This to me is the biggest tragedy of all. Iran at grassroots was turning inexorably westwards. Probably still is. Targeted intervention against some regime goons and assets during the massacres earlier this year might even have helped the revolution and weakened the regime’s grip. But this Ill conceived balls-up of a war has not only buggered up the global economy, it’s put the IRGC in de facto power in Iran and cemented the misery of its population.
This sort of shit won't help.
Pete Hegseth, at today's Christian Prayer & Worship Service at the Pentagon, prays for Almighty God to "pour out your wrath" and "break the teeth of the ungodly." He begs the Almighty to sanction "overwhelming violence" against "those who deserve no mercy" https://x.com/mtracey/status/2036951986109641083
For someone who postures as a born again 'crusader' Hegseth is remarkably unwilling to accept risks and casualties.
US troops should never have been withdrawn from Vietnam either, had they stayed Saigon would not have fallen
They were withdrawn because the US was no longer able to sustain enough public support for an unwinnable war thousands of miles away. Sure, the US could have chosen to burn US lives in perpetuity to defend Saigon at enormous cost in blood & treasure, but that cost had become politically impossible to sustain. If war is a continuation of politics by other means then that means the political support for the war is just as much a part of the war as the actual fighting.
In reality the US government recognised that the Vietnam war was unwinnable almost as soon as it started: actual victory on the battlefield required invading the north, but the US was never willing to put boots on the ground in the north because that would bring them into direct conflict with the Communist sphere of influence & that was not a step the US government was willing to take.
The US stepped into the same trap in Vietnam that they risk with this conflict with Iran - a refusal to lose face by backing down before an objectively inferior enemy leads to climbing a ladder of escalation that leads inexorably to politically unsupportable losses. In Vietnam it was even worse because the US was never willing to escalate to the point that they could actually achieve victory in the field & the government knew that right from the start but kept on escalating anyway because each successive President was unwilling to be the President that lost the war in Vietnam.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
And how does America do that? Specifically.
By escorting shipping through Hormuz.
The method which has been used for centuries to protect shipping.
Any Iranian attacks are defended against and responded to.
Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War. It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.
Operation Prime Chance (August 1987 – June 1989) was a United States Special Operations Command operation intended to protect U.S.-flagged oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran–Iraq War. The operation took place roughly at the same time as Operation Earnest Will (July 1987 – September 1988), the largely naval effort to escort the tankers through the Persian Gulf. The operation was begun after the mining of the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti oil tanker Bridgeton.
Operation Nimble Archer was the 19 October 1987 attack on two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf by United States Navy forces. The attack was a response to Iran's missile attack on MV Sea Isle City, a reflagged Kuwaiti oil tanker at anchor off Kuwait, which had occurred three days earlier. The action occurred during Operation Earnest Will, the effort to protect Kuwaiti shipping amid the Iran–Iraq War.
Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier. It took place during the US presidency of Ronald Reagan and the rule of Supreme Leader of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini.
That worked well when ships were used to attack over ships, it doesn’t work so well now when it’s going to be masses of cheap drones fired to over power defences knowing that only 1-5 of the 500 you send need to get through
Sure. One was to be willing to tolerate casualties. That's a feature of warfare. That's a good reason to think long and hard about going to war (and thinking is not what this administration does), but once you fight, you have to go all in.
So what do you do when all your Naval vessels have been put out of action? Why do you think the massive orange idiot wants everyone but the US to do the escorting?
The piece linked to earlier considers this and concludes that the only way to guarantee traffic through the strait would be ground troops occupying the Iranian coast.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
November is still a long way away and you’d need two thirds of the Senate to impeach Trump which isn’t going to happen .
And you have to factor in GOP attempts to suppress the vote aswell as more vote rigging . The Dems need a blow out to nullify that .
There won't be enough to impeach in the Senate but a House where the spineless nodding GOP donkeys are in the minority would be a major improvement
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This to me is the biggest tragedy of all. Iran at grassroots was turning inexorably westwards. Probably still is. Targeted intervention against some regime goons and assets during the massacres earlier this year might even have helped the revolution and weakened the regime’s grip. But this Ill conceived balls-up of a war has not only buggered up the global economy, it’s put the IRGC in de facto power in Iran and cemented the misery of its population.
This sort of shit won't help.
Pete Hegseth, at today's Christian Prayer & Worship Service at the Pentagon, prays for Almighty God to "pour out your wrath" and "break the teeth of the ungodly." He begs the Almighty to sanction "overwhelming violence" against "those who deserve no mercy" https://x.com/mtracey/status/2036951986109641083
He must have skipped the Sermon on the Mount when reading his bible.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
And how does America do that? Specifically.
By escorting shipping through Hormuz.
The method which has been used for centuries to protect shipping.
Any Iranian attacks are defended against and responded to.
Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War. It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.
Operation Prime Chance (August 1987 – June 1989) was a United States Special Operations Command operation intended to protect U.S.-flagged oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran–Iraq War. The operation took place roughly at the same time as Operation Earnest Will (July 1987 – September 1988), the largely naval effort to escort the tankers through the Persian Gulf. The operation was begun after the mining of the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti oil tanker Bridgeton.
Operation Nimble Archer was the 19 October 1987 attack on two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf by United States Navy forces. The attack was a response to Iran's missile attack on MV Sea Isle City, a reflagged Kuwaiti oil tanker at anchor off Kuwait, which had occurred three days earlier. The action occurred during Operation Earnest Will, the effort to protect Kuwaiti shipping amid the Iran–Iraq War.
Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier. It took place during the US presidency of Ronald Reagan and the rule of Supreme Leader of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini.
That worked well when ships were used to attack over ships, it doesn’t work so well now when it’s going to be masses of cheap drones fired to over power defences knowing that only 1-5 of the 500 you send need to get through
Sure. One was to be willing to tolerate casualties. That's a feature of warfare. That's a good reason to think long and hard about going to war (and thinking is not what this administration does), but once you fight, you have to go all in.
Tankers crew aren't combatants. Would you be prepared to pilot a bulk LNG carrier (aka floating bomb) through the strait ?
Higher risk deserves higher rewards.
Increase the pay and you'll get a crew.
If necessary they can be supplemented by naval personnel.
Merchant shipping sailed in far more dangerous circumstances than this in previous wars.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
And how does America do that? Specifically.
By escorting shipping through Hormuz.
The method which has been used for centuries to protect shipping.
Any Iranian attacks are defended against and responded to.
Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War. It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.
Operation Prime Chance (August 1987 – June 1989) was a United States Special Operations Command operation intended to protect U.S.-flagged oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran–Iraq War. The operation took place roughly at the same time as Operation Earnest Will (July 1987 – September 1988), the largely naval effort to escort the tankers through the Persian Gulf. The operation was begun after the mining of the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti oil tanker Bridgeton.
Operation Nimble Archer was the 19 October 1987 attack on two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf by United States Navy forces. The attack was a response to Iran's missile attack on MV Sea Isle City, a reflagged Kuwaiti oil tanker at anchor off Kuwait, which had occurred three days earlier. The action occurred during Operation Earnest Will, the effort to protect Kuwaiti shipping amid the Iran–Iraq War.
Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier. It took place during the US presidency of Ronald Reagan and the rule of Supreme Leader of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini.
That worked well when ships were used to attack over ships, it doesn’t work so well now when it’s going to be masses of cheap drones fired to over power defences knowing that only 1-5 of the 500 you send need to get through
Iran doesn't have 500 drones to fire at a single ship, nor would 1 sink a ship.
One continuing feature of the past few years has been people overestimating Iran's military capabilities.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
And how does America do that? Specifically.
By escorting shipping through Hormuz.
The method which has been used for centuries to protect shipping.
Any Iranian attacks are defended against and responded to.
Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War. It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.
Operation Prime Chance (August 1987 – June 1989) was a United States Special Operations Command operation intended to protect U.S.-flagged oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran–Iraq War. The operation took place roughly at the same time as Operation Earnest Will (July 1987 – September 1988), the largely naval effort to escort the tankers through the Persian Gulf. The operation was begun after the mining of the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti oil tanker Bridgeton.
Operation Nimble Archer was the 19 October 1987 attack on two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf by United States Navy forces. The attack was a response to Iran's missile attack on MV Sea Isle City, a reflagged Kuwaiti oil tanker at anchor off Kuwait, which had occurred three days earlier. The action occurred during Operation Earnest Will, the effort to protect Kuwaiti shipping amid the Iran–Iraq War.
Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier. It took place during the US presidency of Ronald Reagan and the rule of Supreme Leader of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini.
That worked well when ships were used to attack over ships, it doesn’t work so well now when it’s going to be masses of cheap drones fired to over power defences knowing that only 1-5 of the 500 you send need to get through
Sure. One was to be willing to tolerate casualties. That's a feature of warfare. That's a good reason to think long and hard about going to war (and thinking is not what this administration does), but once you fight, you have to go all in.
Tankers crew aren't combatants. Would you be prepared to pilot a bulk LNG carrier (aka floating bomb) through the strait ?
Higher risk deserves higher rewards.
Increase the pay and you'll get a crew.
If necessary they can be supplemented by naval personnel.
Merchant shipping sailed in far more dangerous circumstances than this in previous wars.
So who is going to insure my $2bn tanker - and don’t say the USA because I wouldn’t trust Trump for $1 let alone $2bn
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
And how does America do that? Specifically.
By escorting shipping through Hormuz.
The method which has been used for centuries to protect shipping.
Any Iranian attacks are defended against and responded to.
Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War. It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.
Operation Prime Chance (August 1987 – June 1989) was a United States Special Operations Command operation intended to protect U.S.-flagged oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran–Iraq War. The operation took place roughly at the same time as Operation Earnest Will (July 1987 – September 1988), the largely naval effort to escort the tankers through the Persian Gulf. The operation was begun after the mining of the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti oil tanker Bridgeton.
Operation Nimble Archer was the 19 October 1987 attack on two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf by United States Navy forces. The attack was a response to Iran's missile attack on MV Sea Isle City, a reflagged Kuwaiti oil tanker at anchor off Kuwait, which had occurred three days earlier. The action occurred during Operation Earnest Will, the effort to protect Kuwaiti shipping amid the Iran–Iraq War.
Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier. It took place during the US presidency of Ronald Reagan and the rule of Supreme Leader of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini.
That worked well when ships were used to attack over ships, it doesn’t work so well now when it’s going to be masses of cheap drones fired to over power defences knowing that only 1-5 of the 500 you send need to get through
Sure. One was to be willing to tolerate casualties. That's a feature of warfare. That's a good reason to think long and hard about going to war (and thinking is not what this administration does), but once you fight, you have to go all in.
So what do you do when all your Naval vessels have been put out of action? Why do you think the massive orange idiot wants everyone but the US to do the escorting?
The piece linked to earlier considers this and concludes that the only way to guarantee traffic through the strait would be ground troops occupying the Iranian coast.
Well, I would not start from here, but simply conceding that the entirety of the Persian Gulf is now Iranian territorial waters, seems a much worse outcome than fighting to keep the Straits open.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
And how does America do that? Specifically.
By escorting shipping through Hormuz.
The method which has been used for centuries to protect shipping.
Any Iranian attacks are defended against and responded to.
Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War. It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.
Operation Prime Chance (August 1987 – June 1989) was a United States Special Operations Command operation intended to protect U.S.-flagged oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran–Iraq War. The operation took place roughly at the same time as Operation Earnest Will (July 1987 – September 1988), the largely naval effort to escort the tankers through the Persian Gulf. The operation was begun after the mining of the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti oil tanker Bridgeton.
Operation Nimble Archer was the 19 October 1987 attack on two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf by United States Navy forces. The attack was a response to Iran's missile attack on MV Sea Isle City, a reflagged Kuwaiti oil tanker at anchor off Kuwait, which had occurred three days earlier. The action occurred during Operation Earnest Will, the effort to protect Kuwaiti shipping amid the Iran–Iraq War.
Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier. It took place during the US presidency of Ronald Reagan and the rule of Supreme Leader of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini.
That worked well when ships were used to attack over ships, it doesn’t work so well now when it’s going to be masses of cheap drones fired to over power defences knowing that only 1-5 of the 500 you send need to get through
Sure. One was to be willing to tolerate casualties. That's a feature of warfare. That's a good reason to think long and hard about going to war (and thinking is not what this administration does), but once you fight, you have to go all in.
Tankers crew aren't combatants. Would you be prepared to pilot a bulk LNG carrier (aka floating bomb) through the strait ?
I prefer a quiet life. But, you will always get people who are prepared to perform dangerous occupations - if you pay them sufficiently well for it.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This to me is the biggest tragedy of all. Iran at grassroots was turning inexorably westwards. Probably still is. Targeted intervention against some regime goons and assets during the massacres earlier this year might even have helped the revolution and weakened the regime’s grip. But this Ill conceived balls-up of a war has not only buggered up the global economy, it’s put the IRGC in de facto power in Iran and cemented the misery of its population.
This sort of shit won't help.
Pete Hegseth, at today's Christian Prayer & Worship Service at the Pentagon, prays for Almighty God to "pour out your wrath" and "break the teeth of the ungodly." He begs the Almighty to sanction "overwhelming violence" against "those who deserve no mercy" https://x.com/mtracey/status/2036951986109641083
He must have skipped the Sermon on the Mount when reading his bible.
Its more Elijah and the prophets of Baal - Christian nationalists are very old testament.
The only bit of the new testament they're interested in is the redemption of their own sins by Christ's crucifixion.
TL:DR Iran is the enemy, and we’re not afraid of dealing with this now.
One Islamic theocracy versus another...
That, if not quite half, then 40% of the trouble. Two different versions of Islam. Look at Europe in the 16th/17th Centuries...... about the same time difference from the dawn of Christianity as there is now since the birth of Islam.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
And how does America do that? Specifically.
By escorting shipping through Hormuz.
The method which has been used for centuries to protect shipping.
Any Iranian attacks are defended against and responded to.
Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War. It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.
Operation Prime Chance (August 1987 – June 1989) was a United States Special Operations Command operation intended to protect U.S.-flagged oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran–Iraq War. The operation took place roughly at the same time as Operation Earnest Will (July 1987 – September 1988), the largely naval effort to escort the tankers through the Persian Gulf. The operation was begun after the mining of the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti oil tanker Bridgeton.
Operation Nimble Archer was the 19 October 1987 attack on two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf by United States Navy forces. The attack was a response to Iran's missile attack on MV Sea Isle City, a reflagged Kuwaiti oil tanker at anchor off Kuwait, which had occurred three days earlier. The action occurred during Operation Earnest Will, the effort to protect Kuwaiti shipping amid the Iran–Iraq War.
Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier. It took place during the US presidency of Ronald Reagan and the rule of Supreme Leader of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini.
That worked well when ships were used to attack over ships, it doesn’t work so well now when it’s going to be masses of cheap drones fired to over power defences knowing that only 1-5 of the 500 you send need to get through
Sure. One was to be willing to tolerate casualties. That's a feature of warfare. That's a good reason to think long and hard about going to war (and thinking is not what this administration does), but once you fight, you have to go all in.
Tankers crew aren't combatants. Would you be prepared to pilot a bulk LNG carrier (aka floating bomb) through the strait ?
Higher risk deserves higher rewards.
Increase the pay and you'll get a crew.
If necessary they can be supplemented by naval personnel.
Merchant shipping sailed in far more dangerous circumstances than this in previous wars.
So who is going to insure my $2bn tanker - and don’t say the USA because I wouldn’t trust Trump for $1 let alone $2bn
That lack of trust means that the premiums are reduced.
Let Trump grift some money from the contract and he'll happily make the entire Fort Knox reserves available.
Repost, but I enjoyed the video a lot and systems collapse is on-topic:
Not a usual channel of mine to watch but I've had the first book on 1177 BC on my radar for a while, and Eric Cline's 103 minute video about the Late Bronze Age Collapse is very interesting. And maybe relevant because there's a surprisingly strong trade network that ends, with some powers diminished and others wiped out entirely.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
And how does America do that? Specifically.
By escorting shipping through Hormuz.
The method which has been used for centuries to protect shipping.
Any Iranian attacks are defended against and responded to.
Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War. It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.
Operation Prime Chance (August 1987 – June 1989) was a United States Special Operations Command operation intended to protect U.S.-flagged oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran–Iraq War. The operation took place roughly at the same time as Operation Earnest Will (July 1987 – September 1988), the largely naval effort to escort the tankers through the Persian Gulf. The operation was begun after the mining of the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti oil tanker Bridgeton.
Operation Nimble Archer was the 19 October 1987 attack on two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf by United States Navy forces. The attack was a response to Iran's missile attack on MV Sea Isle City, a reflagged Kuwaiti oil tanker at anchor off Kuwait, which had occurred three days earlier. The action occurred during Operation Earnest Will, the effort to protect Kuwaiti shipping amid the Iran–Iraq War.
Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier. It took place during the US presidency of Ronald Reagan and the rule of Supreme Leader of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini.
That worked well when ships were used to attack over ships, it doesn’t work so well now when it’s going to be masses of cheap drones fired to over power defences knowing that only 1-5 of the 500 you send need to get through
Sure. One was to be willing to tolerate casualties. That's a feature of warfare. That's a good reason to think long and hard about going to war (and thinking is not what this administration does), but once you fight, you have to go all in.
So what do you do when all your Naval vessels have been put out of action? Why do you think the massive orange idiot wants everyone but the US to do the escorting?
The piece linked to earlier considers this and concludes that the only way to guarantee traffic through the strait would be ground troops occupying the Iranian coast.
Well, I would not start from here, but simply conceding that the entirety of the Persian Gulf is now Iranian territorial waters, seems a much worse outcome than fighting to keep the Straits open.
Right now it seems we have two choices:
1) Concede that Iran controls access to the Gulf & gets to extract a passage tax on every vessel through the Straits of Hormuz if they so choose.
2) A ground invasion of a country of 90million people in some of the most difficult terrain in the world, because that’s what it’s going to take to prevent Iran controlling the Straits.
The US is currently spending ~billion $ / day on this war. How much do you think a full invasion half the world away is going to cost? That’s without considering the impact on the rest of the world when Iran decides that wiping out the entire gulf oil industry seems like a fair exchange.
Iran can lose, big time & the rest of us can all end up much, much worse off. Or we can buy off the Iranians, who the US should never have attacked in the first place because this was always going to be the end point & that’s precisely why everyone involved has put attacking Iran in the “not worth it” box for decades.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
And how does America do that? Specifically.
By escorting shipping through Hormuz.
The method which has been used for centuries to protect shipping.
Any Iranian attacks are defended against and responded to.
Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War. It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.
Operation Prime Chance (August 1987 – June 1989) was a United States Special Operations Command operation intended to protect U.S.-flagged oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran–Iraq War. The operation took place roughly at the same time as Operation Earnest Will (July 1987 – September 1988), the largely naval effort to escort the tankers through the Persian Gulf. The operation was begun after the mining of the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti oil tanker Bridgeton.
Operation Nimble Archer was the 19 October 1987 attack on two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf by United States Navy forces. The attack was a response to Iran's missile attack on MV Sea Isle City, a reflagged Kuwaiti oil tanker at anchor off Kuwait, which had occurred three days earlier. The action occurred during Operation Earnest Will, the effort to protect Kuwaiti shipping amid the Iran–Iraq War.
Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier. It took place during the US presidency of Ronald Reagan and the rule of Supreme Leader of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini.
That worked well when ships were used to attack over ships, it doesn’t work so well now when it’s going to be masses of cheap drones fired to over power defences knowing that only 1-5 of the 500 you send need to get through
Sure. One was to be willing to tolerate casualties. That's a feature of warfare. That's a good reason to think long and hard about going to war (and thinking is not what this administration does), but once you fight, you have to go all in.
So what do you do when all your Naval vessels have been put out of action? Why do you think the massive orange idiot wants everyone but the US to do the escorting?
The piece linked to earlier considers this and concludes that the only way to guarantee traffic through the strait would be ground troops occupying the Iranian coast.
Well, I would not start from here, but simply conceding that the entirety of the Persian Gulf is now Iranian territorial waters, seems a much worse outcome than fighting to keep the Straits open.
Right now it seems we have two choices:
1) Concede that Iran controls access to the Gulf & gets to extract a passage tax on every vessel through the Straits of Hormuz if they so choose.
2) A ground invasion of a country of 90million people in some of the most difficult terrain in the world, because that’s what it’s going to take to prevent Iran controlling the Straits.
The US is currently spending ~billion $ / day on this war. How much do you think a full invasion half the world away is going to cost? That’s without considering the impact on the rest of the world when Iran decides that wiping out the entire gulf oil industry seems like a fair exchange.
Iran can lose, big time & the rest of us can all end up much, much worse off. Or we can buy off the Iranians, who the US should never have attacked in the first place because this was always going to be the end point & that’s precisely why everyone involved has put attacking Iran in the “not worth it” box for decades.
So what's to stop the Gulf states blocking Hormuz from the southern side and taking their cut ?
The media hysteria against Starmer on this war is bonkers.
He’s kept us out of this stupid war and that’s all that matters. We’d be objectively worse off if we had literally any other leader.
What this war and Starmer's response have highlighted, to the genuine surprise of many pundits, is the pathetic state of our armed forces after decades of Tory defence cuts.
Decades actually involves the coalition government and previous labour ones
It also applies across Europe, because everyone believed in the peace dividend and NATO always being there funded largely by the US
The UK is not alone in this problem but it cannot be ignored and defence spending will be needed in the many billions
Labour did spend money, not least because Blair kept sending the army on SMOs, and also commissioned two shiny new carriers. There is a strong argument that Labour spaffed money away on all the wrong things, not least carriers without escorts and planes, but most of the cuts to all three branches took place under the blue team, not least under the Iron Lady, and George Osborne fiddling the figures fooled a lot of the people but not all of the time.
The Pentagon is “developing military options for a final blow in Iran that could include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign”, Axios reports.
The Pentagon is “developing military options for a final blow in Iran that could include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign”, Axios reports.
If their planning is as detailed and expert as their planning for the current situation, I'd be very nervous if I lived in Iraq right now.
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
And how does America do that? Specifically.
By escorting shipping through Hormuz.
The method which has been used for centuries to protect shipping.
Any Iranian attacks are defended against and responded to.
Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War. It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.
Operation Prime Chance (August 1987 – June 1989) was a United States Special Operations Command operation intended to protect U.S.-flagged oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran–Iraq War. The operation took place roughly at the same time as Operation Earnest Will (July 1987 – September 1988), the largely naval effort to escort the tankers through the Persian Gulf. The operation was begun after the mining of the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti oil tanker Bridgeton.
Operation Nimble Archer was the 19 October 1987 attack on two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf by United States Navy forces. The attack was a response to Iran's missile attack on MV Sea Isle City, a reflagged Kuwaiti oil tanker at anchor off Kuwait, which had occurred three days earlier. The action occurred during Operation Earnest Will, the effort to protect Kuwaiti shipping amid the Iran–Iraq War.
Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier. It took place during the US presidency of Ronald Reagan and the rule of Supreme Leader of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini.
That worked well when ships were used to attack over ships, it doesn’t work so well now when it’s going to be masses of cheap drones fired to over power defences knowing that only 1-5 of the 500 you send need to get through
Sure. One was to be willing to tolerate casualties. That's a feature of warfare. That's a good reason to think long and hard about going to war (and thinking is not what this administration does), but once you fight, you have to go all in.
Tankers crew aren't combatants. Would you be prepared to pilot a bulk LNG carrier (aka floating bomb) through the strait ?
Higher risk deserves higher rewards.
Increase the pay and you'll get a crew.
If necessary they can be supplemented by naval personnel.
Merchant shipping sailed in far more dangerous circumstances than this in previous wars.
So who is going to insure my $2bn tanker - and don’t say the USA because I wouldn’t trust Trump for $1 let alone $2bn
That lack of trust means that the premiums are reduced.
Let Trump grift some money from the contract and he'll happily make the entire Fort Knox reserves available.
The problem is no one sane would trust Trump would pay out
The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.
Not sure that Trump is a loser here.
A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).
Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.
He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.
It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again
Good morning
It is not a winnable war by anyone
It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve
For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy
This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
And how does America do that? Specifically.
By escorting shipping through Hormuz.
The method which has been used for centuries to protect shipping.
Any Iranian attacks are defended against and responded to.
Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War. It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.
Operation Prime Chance (August 1987 – June 1989) was a United States Special Operations Command operation intended to protect U.S.-flagged oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran–Iraq War. The operation took place roughly at the same time as Operation Earnest Will (July 1987 – September 1988), the largely naval effort to escort the tankers through the Persian Gulf. The operation was begun after the mining of the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti oil tanker Bridgeton.
Operation Nimble Archer was the 19 October 1987 attack on two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf by United States Navy forces. The attack was a response to Iran's missile attack on MV Sea Isle City, a reflagged Kuwaiti oil tanker at anchor off Kuwait, which had occurred three days earlier. The action occurred during Operation Earnest Will, the effort to protect Kuwaiti shipping amid the Iran–Iraq War.
Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier. It took place during the US presidency of Ronald Reagan and the rule of Supreme Leader of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini.
That worked well when ships were used to attack over ships, it doesn’t work so well now when it’s going to be masses of cheap drones fired to over power defences knowing that only 1-5 of the 500 you send need to get through
Sure. One was to be willing to tolerate casualties. That's a feature of warfare. That's a good reason to think long and hard about going to war (and thinking is not what this administration does), but once you fight, you have to go all in.
So what do you do when all your Naval vessels have been put out of action? Why do you think the massive orange idiot wants everyone but the US to do the escorting?
The piece linked to earlier considers this and concludes that the only way to guarantee traffic through the strait would be ground troops occupying the Iranian coast.
Well, I would not start from here, but simply conceding that the entirety of the Persian Gulf is now Iranian territorial waters, seems a much worse outcome than fighting to keep the Straits open.
Right now it seems we have two choices:
1) Concede that Iran controls access to the Gulf & gets to extract a passage tax on every vessel through the Straits of Hormuz if they so choose.
2) A ground invasion of a country of 90million people in some of the most difficult terrain in the world, because that’s what it’s going to take to prevent Iran controlling the Straits.
The US is currently spending ~billion $ / day on this war. How much do you think a full invasion half the world away is going to cost? That’s without considering the impact on the rest of the world when Iran decides that wiping out the entire gulf oil industry seems like a fair exchange.
Iran can lose, big time & the rest of us can all end up much, much worse off. Or we can buy off the Iranians, who the US should never have attacked in the first place because this was always going to be the end point & that’s precisely why everyone involved has put attacking Iran in the “not worth it” box for decades.
Choose 2), and all you do is teach the Iranians to do it again. If we accept that Iran has de facto, a veto over the functioning of the world's economy, they will exercise it over and over again.
Comments
Pete Hegseth, at today's Christian Prayer & Worship Service at the Pentagon, prays for Almighty God to "pour out your wrath" and "break the teeth of the ungodly." He begs the Almighty to sanction "overwhelming violence" against "those who deserve no mercy"
https://x.com/mtracey/status/2036951986109641083
Clearly nobody would say Hitler won the war against France in 1940 and then withdrew forces in 1944. Or Napoleon won the war against Russia and the mistake was withdrawing his troops from Moscow.
But we’d probably agree that Britain won the Indian mutiny even though it had to station troops in India and eventually withdrew decades later. Or the USSR won the war in Eastern Europe in 1945 but then withdrew forces in 1990.
I wonder what the accepted timescale is.
It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression
And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse
. I note the Saudi East West pipeline was built in 1981 as a contingency for Hormuz being blocked, so that fits. Another line was added and the whole thing was upgraded to a nominal 7 million barrels per day. AIUI the constraint now is the port facilities the oil ends up can handle 4 mbpd. As 2mbpd go through the port normally, the uplift is only 2mbpd - useful but not solving the high problem. Also not the best place to export from as the southern end of the Red Sea is also blocked by the Houthis.
So you would need multiple redundant pipelines for crude oil and gas as well as massive investments in port and handling facilities. This feels like several years development even at an accelerated pace. It would still leave refined oil and fertilizer needing to go through Hormuz.
I think we can say Iran will never again have the level of leverage it has now. But that leverage is critical. And it will still remain in the future at a lower level.
I'm unconvinced that God regularly smites like that, but if He did...
It’s going to be another Vietnam
Al Qaeda were defeated by western forces.
The Taliban defeated the attempt by the west to impose a different sort of government and society.
As long as Taliban controlled Afghanistan sticks to oppressing women and fighting with Pakistan nobody in the West will be bothered.
Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.
He’s kept us out of this stupid war and that’s all that matters. We’d be objectively worse off if we had literally any other leader.
"Who is winning this war? The honest answer is that it is still too early to tell."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/03/26/despite-trump-claims-we-are-still-heading-into-the-storm/
Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.
I can see a flaw in that strategy.
Mind you truth and accuracy is the first victim of all wars
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69c3d6bd4a06660f08544159/UK_Government_Response_to_the_Covid-19_Inquiry_Module_2_Report.pdf
The kind of short-sighted policy is why we have an enormous debt and why firms and households haven’t shifted away from fossil fuels, leaving us incredibly vulnerable to this kind of disaster.
If we’re going to cut any taxes it should be VAT on business/industrial electricity. Drop it from 20% to 5%.
https://x.com/specialreport/status/2036937151187661101.
Perhaps if western forces had stayed for 50 years a new generation would have grown up thinking differently.
I doubt it though.
No matter how much western money was poured in Afghanistan would always have been both deprived and corrupt and religion would have continued to be the only unifying factor.
It’s an uncomfortable position but for those hoping the US hangs onto a semblance of democracy Trump needs to own a disastrous war in Iran .
Plaid Cymru candidate condemned for ‘shocking’ remark about children
Party facing calls to expel Neil Roberts, who also posted online a picture of himself in his underpants
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/03/26/plaid-cymru-candidate-remark-about-children/
That required accepting risks and costs and sometimes casualties.
The same applies now.
Both Trump and the Gulf Arabs have no shortage of money, let them spend it now.
I agree.
But I'm just a godless atheist, so I must be mistaken.
The only people who would be impacted are very small firms who sell to the general public and aren’t VAT registered or use turnover based flat rate VAT
The method which has been used for centuries to protect shipping.
Any Iranian attacks are defended against and responded to.
Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War. It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Earnest_Will
Operation Prime Chance (August 1987 – June 1989) was a United States Special Operations Command operation intended to protect U.S.-flagged oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran–Iraq War. The operation took place roughly at the same time as Operation Earnest Will (July 1987 – September 1988), the largely naval effort to escort the tankers through the Persian Gulf. The operation was begun after the mining of the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti oil tanker Bridgeton.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Prime_Chance
Operation Nimble Archer was the 19 October 1987 attack on two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf by United States Navy forces. The attack was a response to Iran's missile attack on MV Sea Isle City, a reflagged Kuwaiti oil tanker at anchor off Kuwait, which had occurred three days earlier. The action occurred during Operation Earnest Will, the effort to protect Kuwaiti shipping amid the Iran–Iraq War.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Nimble_Archer
Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier. It took place during the US presidency of Ronald Reagan and the rule of Supreme Leader of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis
https://x.com/salansar1/status/2036871812152234007
TL:DR Iran is the enemy, and we’re not afraid of dealing with this now.
Gary Buckley™
@myrddenbuckley
·
40m
Two men arrested in connection with a suspected arson attack on four ambulances operated by a Jewish charity in north London have been released on bail.
https://x.com/myrddenbuckley/status/2037097879962345729?s=20
https://x.com/i/status/2037104554227945643
Its only been 20 months, England has existed for 1200 years, give us a millenium before you get cross
But the real fear lurking in the background is an Iranian version of Israel's Sampson strategy - except that in this case all it would require is multiple attacks on the Qatar gas production facilities.
It also applies across Europe, because everyone believed in the peace dividend and NATO always being there funded largely by the US
The UK is not alone in this problem but it cannot be ignored and defence spending will be needed in the many billions
Would you be prepared to pilot a bulk LNG carrier (aka floating bomb) through the strait ?
In reality the US government recognised that the Vietnam war was unwinnable almost as soon as it started: actual victory on the battlefield required invading the north, but the US was never willing to put boots on the ground in the north because that would bring them into direct conflict with the Communist sphere of influence & that was not a step the US government was willing to take.
The US stepped into the same trap in Vietnam that they risk with this conflict with Iran - a refusal to lose face by backing down before an objectively inferior enemy leads to climbing a ladder of escalation that leads inexorably to politically unsupportable losses. In Vietnam it was even worse because the US was never willing to escalate to the point that they could actually achieve victory in the field & the government knew that right from the start but kept on escalating anyway because each successive President was unwilling to be the President that lost the war in Vietnam.
Why do you think the massive orange idiot wants everyone but the US to do the escorting?
The piece linked to earlier considers this and concludes that the only way to guarantee traffic through the strait would be ground troops occupying the Iranian coast.
Increase the pay and you'll get a crew.
If necessary they can be supplemented by naval personnel.
Merchant shipping sailed in far more dangerous circumstances than this in previous wars.
One continuing feature of the past few years has been people overestimating Iran's military capabilities.
The only bit of the new testament they're interested in is the redemption of their own sins by Christ's crucifixion.
Remember: "in a war, the enemy always has a vote", a point that Donald Trump is going to rue for the rest of his hopefully brief career in office.
Let Trump grift some money from the contract and he'll happily make the entire Fort Knox reserves available.
1) Concede that Iran controls access to the Gulf & gets to extract a passage tax on every vessel through the Straits of Hormuz if they so choose.
2) A ground invasion of a country of 90million people in some of the most difficult terrain in the world, because that’s what it’s going to take to prevent Iran controlling the Straits.
The US is currently spending ~billion $ / day on this war. How much do you think a full invasion half the world away is going to cost? That’s without considering the impact on the rest of the world when Iran decides that wiping out the entire gulf oil industry seems like a fair exchange.
Iran can lose, big time & the rest of us can all end up much, much worse off. Or we can buy off the Iranians, who the US should never have attacked in the first place because this was always going to be the end point & that’s precisely why everyone involved has put attacking Iran in the “not worth it” box for decades.
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mhxevsgjek2q
ETA must stop saying "not least".
More in the Recipe for Disaster file:
The Pentagon is “developing military options for a final blow in Iran that could include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign”, Axios reports.