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It’s grim in Wales for the Tories & Lib Dems – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,730

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fishing said:

    People were mentioning Bob Monkhouse yesterday on here. Here are three classic Monkhouseisms - I think I heard him give the middle one live -

    - "I'm not saying my wife's a bad cook, but he uses our smoke alarm as a timer"
    - "I got a horse for my wife. Fair trade, wouldn't you say?"
    - "I still enjoy sex at 74. I live at 75, so it's just across the road"

    "When I first said I wanted to be a comedian, everybody laughed. They're not laughing now."
    That's my all time favourite Monkhouse joke.

    He was the master of timing.

    The only person I can think of who compares -and it's a very, very different kind of humour- is Ricky Gervais.

    Only with Ricky, he's throwing in something so wildly outrageous, you can't believe he said it. "Don't worry, I didn't kill her." (And we all know how that one ends.)
    The successor to Bob Monkhouse is Jimmy Carr. I will die on this hill. Very similar in terms of delivery, dealing with hecklers, being able to think on his feet.
    I don't think so. Monkhouse was rarely cruel, while Carr and Gervais often are "edgy".

    Tim Vine is more like Monkhouse.
    Tim Vine once held the world record for the number of jokes told in an hour - 499!
    One short.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,730
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jaylyall.bsky.social‬

    Russia sending improved Geran-2 drones to Iran, along with intel and humanitarian aid designed to shore up regime. Also looks like they're delivering man-portable anti-aircraft Verba systems

    https://bsky.app/profile/jaylyall.bsky.social/post/3mhw3gxqsts2i

    Trump is the worst US President ever, isn’t he?
    Nah. He is great. Just ask @Sandpit.
    I definitely never called him that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,730

    glw said:

    FF43 said:

    Excellent summary in my view of the strategic implications of the Iran War mainly from a US perspective.

    https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/

    That's a good article. It's the sort of thing Trump could have done with reading before he started this debacle.
    I've just reached this bit. We appear to be completely fucked now.


    The GCC States will tell you that’s total bollocks.

    US media simply hates Trump and works backwards from there. They want the US to ‘lose’ this conflict.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,730

    isam said:

    More examples of the Speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, reminding Boris to answer the question put forward to him.

    There’s no excuse for allowing Keir Starmer to evade every question time and time again during #PMQs


    https://x.com/archrose90/status/2036907788140437739?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Also Starmer seems to use the beginning to announce what the govenment has done or achieved recently before questions get going.

    Betty Boothroyd would never have allowed any of this!
    Hoyle is a particularly poor speaker. Down at Martin and Bercow levels.
    That makes three in a row, which makes me wonder if there's something about the structure of the current game that stops the Commons getting good Speakers. Guess one is that the executive are just too powerful, guess two is that it's become a bit of a career path for the wrong sort of misfit.
    Can we not find another Betty Boothroyd somewhere in Parliament? The last great Speaker.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,723
    Andy_JS said:

    More on this.

    "National Savings and Investments is set to pay out £400m to customers following a missing savings scandal first revealed by The Telegraph. The savings bank is in discussions with the Treasury to repay some 37,000 savers whose money is understood to have been misplaced, after failings dating back years. The exact amount to be returned is yet to be determined, with Treasury officials understood to be working with NS&I on the finer points of “a very complex issue”, but it is thought to stretch into the hundreds of millions, potentially £400m."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/banking/bonds/nsi-faces-400m-bill-over-missing-savings-scandal/

    Quite sure I had some money in there in the early 2000s, moved out now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,656
    Sandpit said:

    glw said:

    FF43 said:

    Excellent summary in my view of the strategic implications of the Iran War mainly from a US perspective.

    https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/

    That's a good article. It's the sort of thing Trump could have done with reading before he started this debacle.
    I've just reached this bit. We appear to be completely fucked now.


    The GCC States will tell you that’s total bollocks.

    US media simply hates Trump and works backwards from there. They want the US to ‘lose’ this conflict.
    While a lot of the media does hate Trump, there are a lot of people struggling with their bills because the price of gas has risen 30% or more.

    Since the conflict has started we've seen Cancelled for Non Payment rates almost double on our insurance. That's a lot of people who can no longer afford both gas and auto insurance.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,545
    .
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    glw said:

    FF43 said:

    Excellent summary in my view of the strategic implications of the Iran War mainly from a US perspective.

    https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/

    That's a good article. It's the sort of thing Trump could have done with reading before he started this debacle.
    I've just reached this bit. We appear to be completely fucked now.


    The GCC States will tell you that’s total bollocks.

    US media simply hates Trump and works backwards from there. They want the US to ‘lose’ this conflict.
    While a lot of the media does hate Trump, there are a lot of people struggling with their bills because the price of gas has risen 30% or more.

    Since the conflict has started we've seen Cancelled for Non Payment rates almost double on our insurance. That's a lot of people who can no longer afford both gas and auto insurance.
    "They want the US to lose" is very much a minority opinion.
    The vast majority just wish he hadn't started what is a fruitless war which has caused collateral damage on a global scale.
    They just think Trump is an irresponsible fool, and want the war over.

    Sanewashing Trump, and mischaracterising opposition to his policies is standard practice by those who support him.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,482
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    glw said:

    FF43 said:

    Excellent summary in my view of the strategic implications of the Iran War mainly from a US perspective.

    https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/

    That's a good article. It's the sort of thing Trump could have done with reading before he started this debacle.
    I've just reached this bit. We appear to be completely fucked now.


    The GCC States will tell you that’s total bollocks.

    US media simply hates Trump and works backwards from there. They want the US to ‘lose’ this conflict.
    While a lot of the media does hate Trump, there are a lot of people struggling with their bills because the price of gas has risen 30% or more.

    Since the conflict has started we've seen Cancelled for Non Payment rates almost double on our insurance. That's a lot of people who can no longer afford both gas and auto insurance.
    Jams – just about managing.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,482
    rcs1000 said:
    It reads like AI slop, or at least the first part does, which is where I stopped. If not AI, then all American colleges must teach Creative Writing 101 the same way. One can almost hear it being intoned by a synthesised voice on social media.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,679
    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    More examples of the Speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, reminding Boris to answer the question put forward to him.

    There’s no excuse for allowing Keir Starmer to evade every question time and time again during #PMQs


    https://x.com/archrose90/status/2036907788140437739?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Also Starmer seems to use the beginning to announce what the govenment has done or achieved recently before questions get going.

    Betty Boothroyd would never have allowed any of this!
    Hoyle is a particularly poor speaker. Down at Martin and Bercow levels.
    That makes three in a row, which makes me wonder if there's something about the structure of the current game that stops the Commons getting good Speakers. Guess one is that the executive are just too powerful, guess two is that it's become a bit of a career path for the wrong sort of misfit.
    Can we not find another Betty Boothroyd somewhere in Parliament? The last great Speaker.
    David Davis
    Hilary Benn
    Ed Davey

    would make excellent Speakers imho

    Strong enough
    Respected across Party lines
    Not overtly Partisan

    AS the dynamic changes and especially if Tories are no longer 2nd Party after next GE it could open up for an LD option.

    I'm not sure an SNP / PC / NI Speaker could ever work as they would be overseeing English Legal jurisdiction questions.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 78,236
    Sandpit said:

    glw said:

    FF43 said:

    Excellent summary in my view of the strategic implications of the Iran War mainly from a US perspective.

    https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/

    That's a good article. It's the sort of thing Trump could have done with reading before he started this debacle.
    I've just reached this bit. We appear to be completely fucked now.


    The GCC States will tell you that’s total bollocks.

    US media simply hates Trump and works backwards from there. They want the US to ‘lose’ this conflict.
    He's already lost, in the sense that nothing he was ostensibly trying to achieve will be achieved, and he's done almost as much damage to his polling as opening up the Epstein files would have done.

    Just as Putin cannot now 'win' his war against Ukraine as even the stuff he's demanding is a far cry from what he actually wanted.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,382

    Nigelb said:

    Trump's guarantees aren't worth shit in any event.

    The US has given Ukraine an ultimatum: there will be security guarantees only if Kyiv gives all of Donbas to Putin, — Zelensky.
    https://x.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/2036889243180552562

    If the EU can't sort out the €90bn loan pretty soon then Ukraine will be in a difficult situation. Trump and Orban are doing a heck of a job for Putin.
    Zelensky threatening to kill Orban was somewhat of a misstep because it made it a lot more difficult for Orban to back down and even pushed Magyar into a more explicitly Ukro-skeptical position. Even if Orban loses the election, it's not clear what Magyar will do.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,482
    'I Hope You Realize How Ridiculous The Four Of You Look': [Senator] Whitehouse Loses It On Trump Nominees
    At [yesterday's] Senate Judiciary Committee hearing, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) tore into nominees who refused to say that former President Biden won the 2020 presidential election.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sus8_2S4azg
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,295
    They really never thought this through. If this happens it’s going to be brutal.

    ‘ Bloomberg: Trump administration officials are examining scenarios where oil could spike to $200 a barrel and assessing the economic impact, people familiar with the matter say’

    https://x.com/osint613/status/2036969077042782649?s=61
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 78,236

    'I Hope You Realize How Ridiculous The Four Of You Look': [Senator] Whitehouse Loses It On Trump Nominees
    At [yesterday's] Senate Judiciary Committee hearing, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) tore into nominees who refused to say that former President Biden won the 2020 presidential election.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sus8_2S4azg

    The idea of the Whitehouse criticising Trump is far fetched. But not as far fetched as the idea of a Trump nominee being honest.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 78,236
    Taz said:

    They really never thought this through. If this happens it’s going to be brutal.

    ‘ Bloomberg: Trump administration officials are examining scenarios where oil could spike to $200 a barrel and assessing the economic impact, people familiar with the matter say’

    https://x.com/osint613/status/2036969077042782649?s=61

    Of course they didn’t think it through. They can’t mange the necessary prerequisite which is to think.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,779
    FF43 said:

    Excellent summary in my view of the strategic implications of the Iran War mainly from a US perspective.

    https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/

    This is why I come here. Finding these little gems of an article that are well thought out, provocative and informative. Shows the extent of the gap between modern click bait media and what you can find (or what FF43 can find) if you look for it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,704
    Good morning, everyone.

    Not a usual channel of mine to watch but I've had the first book on 1177 BC on my radar for a while, and Eric Cline's 103 minute video about the Late Bronze Age Collapse is very interesting. And maybe relevant because there's a surprisingly strong trade network that ends, with some powers diminished and others wiped out entirely.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=choxcHXhZhE
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,062

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    How to become unpopular and at a time like this

    Resident doctors vote for 6 day strike

    Let's call them junior doctors because everyone understands what that means.
    I get slightly irritated with the opposite aspect on this one - the continual media insistence on "formerly known as junior doctors". It's been long enough now imo. Drop that.
    Would ‘lazy entitled bastards’ do instead ?
    Entitled bastards can be argued (although I personally wouldn't) but lazy? Check out the average weekly hours they work and the intensity. They are not lazy.
    Well they don’t like hard work given how much time they take off striking.

    also they get paid for extra hours, weekends, shift allowances , etc etc , greedy barstewards
    Uni academics have seen a similar degradation in real terms pay. However most of us know the financial pressure the institutions are under and are realistic about how asking for pay restoration would go.
    In other news I hosted my favourite colorectal surgeon today. He moaned a loudly and at length about management. Hospitals and health services need managing for sure, member and I don’t subscribe to the idea of vast culls of admin staff but I do wonder whether the admin burden itself is the problem.
    And then also the residents - remember that a lot of them will up as consultants on rather decent salaries.
    For sure and even those that don't will be on decent money when they get through the increments , add ons etc. They are just taking the piss at this point.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,985
    ydoethur said:

    'I Hope You Realize How Ridiculous The Four Of You Look': [Senator] Whitehouse Loses It On Trump Nominees
    At [yesterday's] Senate Judiciary Committee hearing, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) tore into nominees who refused to say that former President Biden won the 2020 presidential election.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sus8_2S4azg

    The idea of the Whitehouse criticising Trump is far fetched. But not as far fetched as the idea of a Trump nominee being honest.
    I know nothing of Sen. Whitehouse, or his politics.

    But if he doesn't run for the Presidency at some point, the world is doing it wrong.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,779

    Wall Street Journal guy:



    Alex Ward
    @alexbward
    ·
    1h
    At least 3 congressional Republicans—including chairs of House and Senate Armed Services—are hinting strongly that a ground operation in Iran is planned and could potentially be underway soon

    https://x.com/alexbward/status/2036889670571663652

    Buy your oil futures now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,958
    Battlebus said:

    Wall Street Journal guy:



    Alex Ward
    @alexbward
    ·
    1h
    At least 3 congressional Republicans—including chairs of House and Senate Armed Services—are hinting strongly that a ground operation in Iran is planned and could potentially be underway soon

    https://x.com/alexbward/status/2036889670571663652

    Buy your oil futures now.
    Well if Trump really does want regime change in Iran like Netanyahu certainly does it will require ground troops
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,319
    Brixian59 said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    More examples of the Speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, reminding Boris to answer the question put forward to him.

    There’s no excuse for allowing Keir Starmer to evade every question time and time again during #PMQs


    https://x.com/archrose90/status/2036907788140437739?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Also Starmer seems to use the beginning to announce what the govenment has done or achieved recently before questions get going.

    Betty Boothroyd would never have allowed any of this!
    Hoyle is a particularly poor speaker. Down at Martin and Bercow levels.
    That makes three in a row, which makes me wonder if there's something about the structure of the current game that stops the Commons getting good Speakers. Guess one is that the executive are just too powerful, guess two is that it's become a bit of a career path for the wrong sort of misfit.
    Can we not find another Betty Boothroyd somewhere in Parliament? The last great Speaker.
    David Davis
    Hilary Benn
    Ed Davey

    would make excellent Speakers imho

    Strong enough
    Respected across Party lines
    Not overtly Partisan

    AS the dynamic changes and especially if Tories are no longer 2nd Party after next GE it could open up for an LD option.

    I'm not sure an SNP / PC / NI Speaker could ever work as they would be overseeing English Legal jurisdiction questions.
    I'd put my money on Caroline Noakes. She's already a Deputy Speaker so has an instant leg up and is a Tory (presuming that as you say the Tories are still second party by the time Hoyle goes). I really like her manner in the chamber and she was pretty independent minded as a backbencher. I find Hoyle an embarrassment when you see him speaking at international functions. I sat next to him at dinner once and didn't form a good impression of him personally. He brought a crony with him and didn't say more than a few sentences to me.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 127,092

    NEW THREAD

  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,660
    Nothing particularly new but an interesting watch........Has Israel got nuclear weapons Mr President?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbI-4Q6DUig
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,295
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    They really never thought this through. If this happens it’s going to be brutal.

    ‘ Bloomberg: Trump administration officials are examining scenarios where oil could spike to $200 a barrel and assessing the economic impact, people familiar with the matter say’

    https://x.com/osint613/status/2036969077042782649?s=61

    Of course they didn’t think it through. They can’t mange the necessary prerequisite which is to think.
    I’m sure any ground incursion will be as successful and well thought out as this incursion.

    By this stage of the Iraq conflict the US and its allies had taken Iraq and Baghdad had fallen.

    What does the US have to show now. Hormuz closed to most traffic and all their bases in the region destroyed.

    POTUS47 has been a disaster.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,295
    HYUFD said:

    Battlebus said:

    Wall Street Journal guy:



    Alex Ward
    @alexbward
    ·
    1h
    At least 3 congressional Republicans—including chairs of House and Senate Armed Services—are hinting strongly that a ground operation in Iran is planned and could potentially be underway soon

    https://x.com/alexbward/status/2036889670571663652

    Buy your oil futures now.
    Well if Trump really does want regime change in Iran like Netanyahu certainly does it will require ground troops
    Good luck with that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,062
    edited 7:44AM
    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    They really never thought this through. If this happens it’s going to be brutal.

    ‘ Bloomberg: Trump administration officials are examining scenarios where oil could spike to $200 a barrel and assessing the economic impact, people familiar with the matter say’

    https://x.com/osint613/status/2036969077042782649?s=61

    Of course they didn’t think it through. They can’t mange the necessary prerequisite which is to think.
    I’m sure any ground incursion will be as successful and well thought out as this incursion.

    By this stage of the Iraq conflict the US and its allies had taken Iraq and Baghdad had fallen.

    What does the US have to show now. Hormuz closed to most traffic and all their bases in the region destroyed.

    POTUS47 has been a disaster.
    Yanks are well and truly F****d , no chance of winning anything other than a phyrric victory and that even unlikely. Trump and his horrible bunch have shat in their own pants.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,679
    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    They really never thought this through. If this happens it’s going to be brutal.

    ‘ Bloomberg: Trump administration officials are examining scenarios where oil could spike to $200 a barrel and assessing the economic impact, people familiar with the matter say’

    https://x.com/osint613/status/2036969077042782649?s=61

    Of course they didn’t think it through. They can’t mange the necessary prerequisite which is to think.
    I’m sure any ground incursion will be as successful and well thought out as this incursion.

    By this stage of the Iraq conflict the US and its allies had taken Iraq and Baghdad had fallen.

    What does the US have to show now. Hormuz closed to most traffic and all their bases in the region destroyed.

    POTUS47 has been a disaster.
    Yanks are well and truly F****d , no chance of winning anything other than a phyrric victory and that even unlikely. Trump and his horrible bunch have shat in their own pants.
    Are all their underground Bunkers destroyed?

    Major weapon stores probably, but how many troops have they got stashed away in the mountainers, well entrenched, set for classic Mountain Warfare. That usually ends well (NOT) as we've seen in Afghanistan.

  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,679
    Stereodog said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Sandpit said:

    isam said:

    More examples of the Speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, reminding Boris to answer the question put forward to him.

    There’s no excuse for allowing Keir Starmer to evade every question time and time again during #PMQs


    https://x.com/archrose90/status/2036907788140437739?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Also Starmer seems to use the beginning to announce what the govenment has done or achieved recently before questions get going.

    Betty Boothroyd would never have allowed any of this!
    Hoyle is a particularly poor speaker. Down at Martin and Bercow levels.
    That makes three in a row, which makes me wonder if there's something about the structure of the current game that stops the Commons getting good Speakers. Guess one is that the executive are just too powerful, guess two is that it's become a bit of a career path for the wrong sort of misfit.
    Can we not find another Betty Boothroyd somewhere in Parliament? The last great Speaker.
    David Davis
    Hilary Benn
    Ed Davey

    would make excellent Speakers imho

    Strong enough
    Respected across Party lines
    Not overtly Partisan

    AS the dynamic changes and especially if Tories are no longer 2nd Party after next GE it could open up for an LD option.

    I'm not sure an SNP / PC / NI Speaker could ever work as they would be overseeing English Legal jurisdiction questions.
    I'd put my money on Caroline Noakes. She's already a Deputy Speaker so has an instant leg up and is a Tory (presuming that as you say the Tories are still second party by the time Hoyle goes). I really like her manner in the chamber and she was pretty independent minded as a backbencher. I find Hoyle an embarrassment when you see him speaking at international functions. I sat next to him at dinner once and didn't form a good impression of him personally. He brought a crony with him and didn't say more than a few sentences to me.
    Noakes is a good shout.

    I'd have a few quid on her joining LD's at some point if she didn't have Speaker aspirations.
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