Why the Tory party is becoming more like the Lib Dems – politicalbetting.com
Why the Tory party is becoming more like the Lib Dems – politicalbetting.com
?Speculation about Tory reshuffle means its worth looking at whether there has been any Badenoch bounce? The data I think unambiguously shows there has, the fact it is not translating into change in party ratings is arguably a worse sign for Tories than if there hadn't been one
1
Comments
Also it appears quite a few private landlords moving to short term lets.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2jw3qxnd2o
https://www.tiktok.com/@vyromedia_/video/7615156447374085398?_r=1&_t=ZN-94XVQz5Y2II
All trains cancelled for the foreseeable future.
Literally, according to Grok.
Grok is claiming a video from the central fire in Glasgow, Scotland is actually Tel Aviv.
Stop putting any faith into this hallucinatory software.
https://x.com/juliamacfarlane/status/2030805594454503866?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
I think Kemi and the party will be pleased with those ratings overall especially with 3 years to go
I do not think any of us can foretell the next GE, but more immediately I think Starmer has cemented his position, as bad as he is, as simply anyone else would be worse
Indeed Starmer and Kemi have that in common
Having helped quite a few with s21's, the demise will help quite a few from the churn of having to move from place to place. Landlords like any business, need to adjust to market changes in the same way as all UK industry has. Their constant moaning over the years that they are 'special' borders on Trump levels of delusion.
We should continue to extract from the North Sea although it's marginal given the exhaustion of supply. In principle the difference is the thin red line on this chart, although it may be more than that
https://bsky.app/profile/drsimevans.carbonbrief.org/post/3kdj4ec4lai2h
Hitching your wagon to Trump and telling the public UK foreign policy will now be decided by Washington isn’t a good look .
Regardless who leads them though one thing the Tories will need to learn while they are out of the top 2 nationally is the importance of the barchart. The LDs as a party not in the top 2 in the polls often won more seats than their national poll rating suggested locally and indeed sometimes nationally like in 2024 with the barchart in their leaflets in LD held and target seats eg only the LDs can beat the Conservatives (or occasionally Labour) here, Labour can't win here etc. So the Tories will need barcharts in a similar way in their seats saying only the Conservatives can beat Reform here (and the same in a few posher now Labour held seats like Chelsea and Fulham and Kensington and Bayswater and Finchley and Golders Green and Welwyn Hatfield ie Reform can't win here, only the Conservatives can beat Labour in this seat)
Farage-40
Badenoch-41
Starmer-37
Do you think he makes up these figures in the bath?
Can you imagine anyone saying any of those three have a long term vision for Britain?
Or answering yes to the question?
I can't
And even then, it's probably through a merger.
I think the Conservatives should stick with Kemi.
Wasn't a great day in Glasgow overrall yesterday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy4w22znlyvo
OK when attacking individuals and panto like but in a global crisis she has shown herself as totally unfit for her position.
Focus groups are not always reflective of the wider public.
Right now she is not only irrelevant but as she aligns more and more to Trump and let's Pritti direct and control foreign policy then her ratings will quickly go south again.
There's no evidence for it, and nor is that path certain to follow.
If however the Conservatives still win more seats than Reform at the next general election Farage will probably resign and it is the Conservatives who can retake over most of Reform again except the hardest right anti immigration element of Reform who would likely merge into Restore
Yes, the story highlights someone whining at the consequences of renters lobbyists actions. Oh dear.
Indeed they will adapt. I know a couple of landlords who booted out good tenants and have gone short term let due to the law change.
We will also see a growth in businesses managing rentals, build to rent will become more prevalent.
They have to protect themselves. Nothing wrong with S21. Tenants rent they do not own. This govt would be better served sorting out lease charges
There’s votes in bashing landlords, as there is bankers and other groups that offer a service. But I’ve never seen them compared to the Trumpdozer before.
""It was horrible, I was on the bus with my friend at the front and suddenly we turned a corner and the whole sky was orange," she said.
Clearly a Celtic supporter.
If it's to lead the next government, fuhgeddit. She's not up to it and isn't learning. Her studs-up attacks on Starmer in the last week show that. She will go loud on an issue without thinking through her opponent's move, and that always ends in disaster.
If it's to keep some sort of Conservative show on the road until Farage collapses due to a combination of anger, fags, boredom and old age, why not? Someone has to do it and her determination to express loud opinions on everything is as good an idea as any.
But yes, survival depends on bar charts. And a good answer to the "would you back a Reform minority?" question? And that question has dogged the Liberals/Alliance/Lib Dems forever.
“The last prison guard to see Jeffrey Epstein alive made suspicious cash deposits in the 12 months before his death, US Department of Justice (DoJ) files reveal.
“Epstein was found unresponsive in his cell at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New York on Aug 10, 2019. His death was ruled a suicide.
“Tova Noel, 37, one of two officers accused of falsifying prisoner record checks that night, made a final cash deposit of $5,000 (£3,729) into her bank account less than a fortnight earlier on July 30.
“A total of 12 ATM cash deposits, beginning in October 2018, were flagged by her bank to the FBI in a “suspicious activity report” in November 2019.
“Ms Noel and her colleague Michael Thomas were fired after being accused of falsifying records to claim they checked on Epstein during the night before his suicide on Aug 10 that year.
“CCTV footage revealed the pair did not check on Epstein for eight hours, despite his cell being just 15 feet from the guards’ desk.
Criminal charges against them were later dropped.”
Why can’t people just let it go? Jeffrey Epstein was a nasty criminal but in the end he was better and he realised he’d done bad things and stuff, and decided to off himself as a punishment to himself. Indeed he was so honourable at the end he killed himself when it wouldn’t be too upsetting because all the guards were asleep. Just accept it and stop talking about it.
They should be stored in metal containers with no more than a few in each box.
It won't affect the "business model"...
If (like me) you want an old fashioned One Nation Tory government, tough.
The Tory dilemma may be insoluble for now.
In 2024 MTG beat the Dem Harris by 64 to 35 .
The election is a free for all with the top 2 going through to a run off if no one gets above 50% .
There are 3 Dem candidates and 12 from the GOP .
It’s very likely it will go to a run off but the interest is the vote margins . It would be a huge shock if the Dems win a run off given the seat is classed as Ruby Red .
But if there’s a time for a huge shock it might be now with the run off on 7th April . What happens with the Iran War , especially gas prices in the USA which have already climbed 50 cents a gallon over the last week .
And you can’t call your potential voters racist.
But if you need some market research done for your business, the first names off the top of your head are likely to be the companies who do political polls.
The problem with the gas storage is that continualy pumping gas into and out of the formation weakens it over time. Rough has no where near the capacity it had at the start of its storage life because of this. And suprisingly the number of fields suitable for such storage are vanishingly small. I am not aware currently of any other serious contenders for gas storage in the UK sector - although some of those being looked at for CCS might be suitable. Germany generally uses salt as the storage formation for its gas reserves which is much more stable but in the North Sea the Zechstein Salts are much deeper which causes a lot of additional problems as the pressures are higher and salt under pressure acts like a fluid and flows.
I am sure there are suitable targets but successive governments over the last 40 years have not really invested in looking for or apppraising them.
As a never Reform voter it’s not worth the risk
You can say all you want - it simply isn’t going to happen
Or was it Byronic?
I doubt the Telegraph can shed much light on the business either way.
of LDs and a third of Labour voters
and even a quarter of Greens willing to tactically vote Conservative in a Conservative held seat to beat Reform
The UK military discovered , in WWI that the way to stop volcanic stank fires was to store the ammunition in a rack which is actually a water container. Think pigeonholes in a water tank - dry normally, but if the tank is damaged next to the stored item, its smothered in water.
And the marginal cost of gas effectively sets the price for electricity.
Until we can confidently predict no more major disruptions to the global gas market, it would likely be a far cheaper hedge than (say) investing heavily in nuclear power.
But you're right that in the long term it's a redundant solution.
And with OfCom being so toothless with the pro Reform bullshit spouted 24/7 on CeeBeebies which is now standard breakfast fare in the Holiday Inn, Basingstoke what is to stop them?
https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54117-what-is-the-tactical-voting-landscape-in-february-2026
They emit a kind of weird gamma frequency which interferes with any cameras nearby. Photographers have known of this for years. It’s why there’s no proper images of Bigfoot
I think most tactical voters will start their calculations from the perspective of the party of the current MP and that it is the front runner.
Now let’s move on to the next issue - where are those seats where the Tories are the clear opposition to Reform, as there are only 116 such seats.
Basically the Tories are fighting to keep the seats they have at the next election
From the other side of the argument...
My perception is the Conservatives are now like the Liberal Democrats - both have ceased to be national campaigning parties (the LDs stopped a long time ago) and instead operate out of islands of strength surrounded by vast areas of weakness.
There was a time if you didn't vote Labour, you voted Conservative and vice versa. Yes, a handful voted Liberal but not enough to matter in more than 20-25 seats.
Now, we have Reform and the Greens so the choice for the large number of both anti-Labour and anti-Conservative voters is considerable. The Conservatives have largely been driven out of the cities and at the last election large parts of the prosperous south and south west turned against them as well. Apart from where Conservatives and LDs are in direct competition, the Conservatives still have areas which work for them and we'll see this in May.
In London, for example, 19 Boroughs currently have no LD representation, 8 have no Conservative representation while only 2 have no Labour Councillors. I expect the number of Councils with no Conservatives to increase even if the actual number of Conservative Councillors stays much the same or increases.
The next GE could be the most fragmented ever - whether it's analogous to the 1973 Danish election which saw insurgent parties rout the established parties remains to be seen but it's likely the Conservatives will only be competitive in 150 seats at best - in the others, while there will be a name on the ballot paper, what else will there be? The LDs will be active in 100 seats I would guess, the Greens in 50 while Labour have nominally 400 seats to defend - will they defend them all or effectively cede some to Reform or the Conservatives or the Greens or even the LDs? We'll see.
On a personal note, I think Badenoch has been doing a good job overall - I find her constant complaining about issues which the Government of which she was a senior member had little or nothing to mitigate or resolve undermines her credibility considerably and a mea culpa from her for aspects of the 2019-24 period would be welcome. If the Welsh Conservative manifesto for the Senedd elections is, however, indicative of what will be in the Conservative manifesto at the next GE, 50 seats is all the party will get and deserve.
(It might well be the vapes but it's an old, neglected Victorian building with endless cowboy electrics and loads of flammable material. At SFRS rates we'll find out in about 7 years)
https://railway.co.il/en/train-schedule-tel-aviv-hahagana-to-tel-aviv-university-expo?time=12:18
If the tactical option is in the same hated bed as the Party you want defeated, basically you want both defeated surely?
This is why Tories WILL change leader after May.
That, reopening the North Sea, axing the green crap and abandoning the insane marginal pricing rule would start to bring our energy prices down to competitive levels.
I see the G7 is going to release 400 million barrels from reserves - that has steadied nerves a little but as the world uses 100 million barrels a day, it's basically a drop in the ocean.
The pressure to reopen Hormuz and get the Gulf States oil production facilities back up to capacity will be growing - yes, we're moving into summer but that doesn't slow demand completely.
I've heard nothing on supplies and reserves over here - we know how febrile the car driving population is (we saw that in 2022) so everyone will be reassuring supplies are still coming through and everyone will (albeit at a higher price) be able to keep their tanks filled.
My biggest problem with a tactical vote for them is their policy on the ECHR and the EU . It’s currently a straight fight down here between the Lib Dem’s and the Tories so the issue of whether to vote tactically isn’t an issue here .
It was about as subtle as one of @TSE's thread headers.
I do note however that Scotland is currently operating at 100% renewables + nuclear. That means my electricity bill will be unaffected, right?!
Lack of available warships in the Royal Navy could force UK to rely on close Nato allies
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/03/08/britains-aircraft-carrier-may-need-french-escort/ (£££)
Naval clickbait from the Telegraph. It doesn't have to be the French navy; it could be America, or anyone really. But not us because with the MoD's usual joined-up thinking we've sent our only available (nearly) destroyer to Cyprus.
Either way, it’s given me a chuckle. Which is what counts on a slightly grey Monday morning
Priority GP access.
Daily cleaners.
Free dentist.
Not for struggling British families…
For illegal migrants and you’re paying for it.
Welcome to King William Court Modern Britain in a nutshell
SERIOUS QUESTION How is this FAIR!
https://x.com/benonwine/status/2030674303511822682?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
King William Court is an outstanding development combining Studios, 1 & 2 bedroom contemporary apartments, featuring spacious interiors designed to make the most of light, space and clean lines wherever you turn located right in the heart of Chelmsford City Centre.
Truly giving the feel of luxurious living inside these beautifully finished homes that are perfect for first time buyers, down sizers, professionals and families looking to escape the rush of The City but with the benefits of amazing transport links into London.
Each apartment has been carefully designed with well-planned living areas, beautiful kitchens, modern bathrooms and stylish finishes built with superior craftsmanship. All with comfortably-proportioned bedrooms and elegantly-appointed main bathroom suites and en-suites to the 2 bedroom apartments. A number of selected apartments also come with home office space and some with balconies or terraces.
https://www.haart.co.uk/land-new-homes/king-william-court/