Seems Carney decides to back pedal after initial endorsement
Seems Starmer refused use of British bases but back pedals 48 hours later and authourises US use for offensive missions
It is obvious that the allies are very much involved in the war zone, whilst allowing the US and Israel to fly thousands of sortie's into Iran
Only Spain have refused to be part of the action
Everyone is dancing on a pin
However, this is a crisis for the whole Middle East and ultimately the gulf states with the US will decide the outcome
I was surprised at Carney's initial response. A rare misstep for him, I think.
The BBC are reporting that a US based Human Rights organisation is claiming over 1,000 civilian casualties already. No idea how an organisation in the US gets that kind of information but so called collateral damage is inevitable. This is going to look like Gaza writ large over the next few weeks.
The distinction between offensive and defensive operations was never a sustainable line for Starmer but he has made a mistake in simply going along with this. If any party in the UK still bears the scars of the Iraq debacle (and they all should) it is Labour. The polling indicates that this is hugely unpopular in the party, way more than it is in the population as a whole. For a PM already on a shoogly peg this is sub-optimal.
Right now, the Republicans couldn't have asked for a better position: Cornyn is beating Paxton on the Republican side, and Crockett is beating Talarico.
It's 14% counted (give or take).
Here's the thing: the bits that have declared are the more liberal partas of the State. Very little outside the major cities has come in. So it could still be Paxton v Talarico. Or not.
Oh my.
With 30% in, Talarico has taken the lead over Crockett. He's the moderate Baptist preacher from central casting, who isn't going to scare anyone away.
Cornyn's lead over Paxton is down to four percentage points in the Republican primary with 25% in there. If it's Paxton v Talarico, then (and I know I'll regret saying this) I'd make the Democrats favorites for the Texas Senate seat.
So, not being an expert on this race, I assume Cornyn is the relatively moderate Republican and Paxton is a swivel-eyed MAGA loon?
Indeed.
So loony, in fact that the Republican controlled Texas House of Representatives passed an impeachment vote against him. He's also a scandal magnet, from both a financial and personal perspective. Were he to win, and to face Talarico, I can see quite a few Republicans simply sitting out the race.
Paxton just 2 points behind Cornyn now.
Gap back out to 3 percentage points, witgh 53% in. Cornyn has snatched this, I think.
I have trouble reading this as anything other than Jeremy Corbyn is about to become the Republican candidate for Texas senator.
New rules brought in by the Republicans meant that it was no longer possible to vote at any polling station other than the one allocated to you resulting in hundreds of people being turned away.
America is becoming less and less of a functioning democracy. It's sad.
Hard to be democratic when you view your voters as customers to be fleeced for every penny you can screw out of them.
Seems Carney decides to back pedal after initial endorsement
Seems Starmer refused use of British bases but back pedals 48 hours later and authourises US use for offensive missions
It is obvious that the allies are very much involved in the war zone, whilst allowing the US and Israel to fly thousands of sortie's into Iran
Only Spain have refused to be part of the action
Everyone is dancing on a pin
However, this is a crisis for the whole Middle East and ultimately the gulf states with the US will decide the outcome
I was surprised at Carney's initial response. A rare misstep for him, I think.
The BBC are reporting that a US based Human Rights organisation is claiming over 1,000 civilian casualties already. No idea how an organisation in the US gets that kind of information but so called collateral damage is inevitable. This is going to look like Gaza writ large over the next few weeks.
The distinction between offensive and defensive operations was never a sustainable line for Starmer but he has made a mistake in simply going along with this. If any party in the UK still bears the scars of the Iraq debacle (and they all should) it is Labour. The polling indicates that this is hugely unpopular in the party, way more than it is in the population as a whole. For a PM already on a shoogly peg this is sub-optimal.
1000 targets bombed, many in urban areas, it would be very surprising if there weren't significant civilian casualties. And Hegseth has openly eschewed "woke rules of engagement", so it's not an official concern.
Seems Carney decides to back pedal after initial endorsement
Seems Starmer refused use of British bases but back pedals 48 hours later and authourises US use for offensive missions
It is obvious that the allies are very much involved in the war zone, whilst allowing the US and Israel to fly thousands of sortie's into Iran
Only Spain have refused to be part of the action
Everyone is dancing on a pin
However, this is a crisis for the whole Middle East and ultimately the gulf states with the US will decide the outcome
I was surprised at Carney's initial response. A rare misstep for him, I think.
The BBC are reporting that a US based Human Rights organisation is claiming over 1,000 civilian casualties already. No idea how an organisation in the US gets that kind of information but so called collateral damage is inevitable. This is going to look like Gaza writ large over the next few weeks.
The distinction between offensive and defensive operations was never a sustainable line for Starmer but he has made a mistake in simply going along with this. If any party in the UK still bears the scars of the Iraq debacle (and they all should) it is Labour. The polling indicates that this is hugely unpopular in the party, way more than it is in the population as a whole. For a PM already on a shoogly peg this is sub-optimal.
1000 targets bombed, many in urban areas, it would be very surprising if there weren't significant civilian casualties. And Hegseth has openly eschewed "woke rules of engagement", so it's not an official concern.
In an administration dominated by rank incompetence, dishonesty, fraud and corruption Hegseth's efforts to stand out from the crowd are truly notable.
i really don’t understand those saying Starmer is in any kind of pickle.
He’s made the decisions I would have made (obviously the key determinant of being wise). He didn’t get dragged into the initial, irrational attack, but he’s used our forces to protect us and our allies.
Yes it would have been nice to have more forces pre-positioned to do it, but we can hardly blame him for defence cuts from before his ministry. Those cuts are why we no longer have ships in the gulf or more likelihood of a destroyer being at sea.
I am happy with a PM not leaping into someone else’s war on no notice, in order to pretend we were part of the decision to launch it.
Yes a lot of bad faith actors are pretending his position is incoherent or stupid because they want to join the war.
They should just say so and be done with it.
But his position is perfectly reasonable. All the British people will have heard is that we’ve not joined Trump’s war and Trump hates him.
Actually might do him some good with the voters.
Totally agree. Obviously there is some risk in it, not least because we will be acting in theatre without (we assume) full access to the American plan. But what else can he do?
He could have said to the Americans "we don't want to get involved directly, so our planes will be staying on the ground, but as our allies you are welcome to use the bases".
Instead he had to say not just no to joining in, but no to even using the bases.
In international law, enabling someone else is the same as doing something yourself. If we thought it unlawful, we had to withhold the use of our bases. Had we thought it lawful, we probably should have been involved.
Fetishing international law above alliances, morals and doing the right thing. While also misunderstanding international law.
International law is not some divine tablet handed down from Mount Sinai, it is guidelines that has nuance - and which led Carney and Albanese, both stern critics of Trump, to support the action.
The doctrine of self-defence exists within international law and is applicable here as a matter of fact - Iran is attacking Israel both directly and indirectly, so they and their allies like America are entitled to fight Iran. And pre-emptive self-defence is well-established in international law too. There is no need to wait for a mushroom cloud to appear above Tel Aviv before taking action.
Carney massively rowing back his position. "It's for the United States and Israel to make the case ... prima facie, it appears that these actions are inconsistent with international law" "Canada wasn't asked to participate. ... International law binds so we call for de-escalation"
Hope everyon is OK, the main plan of their convaluted argument to shore up Tory foreign policy is burst open wide!
It was just Big G falling out of bed.
I hope he's OK
He may think I hate him, I don't I have massive respect for his ability to defend the indefensible.
Your political views are of genuine interest, as are many people's, but when it comes to all this playground tripe about which posters you do and don't like nobody fucking cares.
Just skip it - it's solipsistic and it's boring.
There’s only one enemy here - the bookies. Unless they are paying out.
Iran destroyed AN/TPY-2 THAAD radars at Al-Ruwais Air Base in the UAE and Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, while satellite imagery confirms the AN/FPS-132 phased array radar in Qatar was also damaged, complicating missile defense across the region.
It is unclear how much damage was sustained. Apparently the USA has 8 THAAD systems in total.
If the Trump administration was not dominated by such arrogant prats they would be seeking Ukrainian advice on countermeasures. This suggests to me that they have a bit to learn.
The Pentagon has burned through so many missiles in the Iran exchange that Trump is dragging Lockheed and Raytheon CEOs into the White House like a failing factory boss demanding overtime. The military admits the Iran strike consumed more long-range munitions than 4 years of Ukraine.
Trump is posting fantasies about “unlimited supply” while Raytheon can barely promise to “eventually” reach 1,000 Tomahawks a year and the Pentagon only budgeted 57 for 2026. The industrial base is so hollowed out they’re threatening contractors with punishment if they don’t ramp up, even though the system physically can’t produce at wartime tempo. America just showed the world that one regional confrontation with Iran drained decades of planning assumptions.
Iran destroyed AN/TPY-2 THAAD radars at Al-Ruwais Air Base in the UAE and Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, while satellite imagery confirms the AN/FPS-132 phased array radar in Qatar was also damaged, complicating missile defense across the region.
It is unclear how much damage was sustained. Apparently the USA has 8 THAAD systems in total.
If the Trump administration was not dominated by such arrogant prats they would be seeking Ukrainian advice on countermeasures. This suggests to me that they have a bit to learn.
When you ask for advice, you give the other party a lever. Mr Trump the deal-maker would naturally avoid that at all costs.
Right now, the Republicans couldn't have asked for a better position: Cornyn is beating Paxton on the Republican side, and Crockett is beating Talarico.
It's 14% counted (give or take).
Here's the thing: the bits that have declared are the more liberal partas of the State. Very little outside the major cities has come in. So it could still be Paxton v Talarico. Or not.
Oh my.
With 30% in, Talarico has taken the lead over Crockett. He's the moderate Baptist preacher from central casting, who isn't going to scare anyone away.
Cornyn's lead over Paxton is down to four percentage points in the Republican primary with 25% in there. If it's Paxton v Talarico, then (and I know I'll regret saying this) I'd make the Democrats favorites for the Texas Senate seat.
So, not being an expert on this race, I assume Cornyn is the relatively moderate Republican and Paxton is a swivel-eyed MAGA loon?
Indeed.
So loony, in fact that the Republican controlled Texas House of Representatives passed an impeachment vote against him. He's also a scandal magnet, from both a financial and personal perspective. Were he to win, and to face Talarico, I can see quite a few Republicans simply sitting out the race.
Paxton just 2 points behind Cornyn now.
Gap back out to 3 percentage points, witgh 53% in. Cornyn has snatched this, I think.
I have trouble reading this as anything other than Jeremy Corbyn is about to become the Republican candidate for Texas senator.
New rules brought in by the Republicans meant that it was no longer possible to vote at any polling station other than the one allocated to you resulting in hundreds of people being turned away.
America is becoming less and less of a functioning democracy. It's sad.
Allocating people a polling station in itself seems sensible; the problem in the US is that some areas are deliberately deprived of sufficient polling stations to cope with the volume of voters
Or those that are literally illegal, or entirely impractical, to walk to (no ped crossings, miles away from residential areas). It's a really clever way of disguising discrimination.
FWIW I do have a neglected project to measure what proportion of the population lives within a 15-minute walk of a UK polling place. I think the UK is pretty good overall but worth having a look.
The Pentagon has burned through so many missiles in the Iran exchange that Trump is dragging Lockheed and Raytheon CEOs into the White House like a failing factory boss demanding overtime. The military admits the Iran strike consumed more long-range munitions than 4 years of Ukraine.
Trump is posting fantasies about “unlimited supply” while Raytheon can barely promise to “eventually” reach 1,000 Tomahawks a year and the Pentagon only budgeted 57 for 2026. The industrial base is so hollowed out they’re threatening contractors with punishment if they don’t ramp up, even though the system physically can’t produce at wartime tempo. America just showed the world that one regional confrontation with Iran drained decades of planning assumptions.
Iran destroyed AN/TPY-2 THAAD radars at Al-Ruwais Air Base in the UAE and Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, while satellite imagery confirms the AN/FPS-132 phased array radar in Qatar was also damaged, complicating missile defense across the region.
If anyone wants a cheap holiday, the room rates at some of the fancy hotels are what we normally only see in the middle of summer or when there’s a pandemic on…
No offence intended, but it's utterly beyond me what the appeal of Dubai or similar cities as a holiday destination from the UK.
As a place to work, I understand the pros (high salaries and low tax) and cons (living there). But as a holiday destination? I just imagine it's like going to a hot canary wharf on vacation.
Short answer: Winter sun, including a lot of fancy resorts along the beach, but also with a modern and safe city attached unlike eg. Maldives or Carribean. Very family friendly place, teenagers can spend the day in the mall if they don’t want to sit on the beach drinking mocktails.
It probably deserves a longer answer though, if I get a chance in the next couple of days I might do a header “Why Dubai?”
@trbrtc.bsky.social · 8h What you're looking at is not a sunrise — it's the Russian LNG tanker ARCTIC METAGAZ (IMO 9243148) struck by a massive explosion in the Mediterranean this morning.
Right now, the Republicans couldn't have asked for a better position: Cornyn is beating Paxton on the Republican side, and Crockett is beating Talarico.
It's 14% counted (give or take).
Here's the thing: the bits that have declared are the more liberal partas of the State. Very little outside the major cities has come in. So it could still be Paxton v Talarico. Or not.
Oh my.
With 30% in, Talarico has taken the lead over Crockett. He's the moderate Baptist preacher from central casting, who isn't going to scare anyone away.
Cornyn's lead over Paxton is down to four percentage points in the Republican primary with 25% in there. If it's Paxton v Talarico, then (and I know I'll regret saying this) I'd make the Democrats favorites for the Texas Senate seat.
So, not being an expert on this race, I assume Cornyn is the relatively moderate Republican and Paxton is a swivel-eyed MAGA loon?
Indeed.
So loony, in fact that the Republican controlled Texas House of Representatives passed an impeachment vote against him. He's also a scandal magnet, from both a financial and personal perspective. Were he to win, and to face Talarico, I can see quite a few Republicans simply sitting out the race.
Paxton just 2 points behind Cornyn now.
Gap back out to 3 percentage points, witgh 53% in. Cornyn has snatched this, I think.
I have trouble reading this as anything other than Jeremy Corbyn is about to become the Republican candidate for Texas senator.
New rules brought in by the Republicans meant that it was no longer possible to vote at any polling station other than the one allocated to you resulting in hundreds of people being turned away.
America is becoming less and less of a functioning democracy. It's sad.
The Pentagon has burned through so many missiles in the Iran exchange that Trump is dragging Lockheed and Raytheon CEOs into the White House like a failing factory boss demanding overtime. The military admits the Iran strike consumed more long-range munitions than 4 years of Ukraine.
Trump is posting fantasies about “unlimited supply” while Raytheon can barely promise to “eventually” reach 1,000 Tomahawks a year and the Pentagon only budgeted 57 for 2026. The industrial base is so hollowed out they’re threatening contractors with punishment if they don’t ramp up, even though the system physically can’t produce at wartime tempo. America just showed the world that one regional confrontation with Iran drained decades of planning assumptions.
@trbrtc.bsky.social · 8h What you're looking at is not a sunrise — it's the Russian LNG tanker ARCTIC METAGAZ (IMO 9243148) struck by a massive explosion in the Mediterranean this morning.
It should go without saying that, if Europe isn’t particularly interested in participating militarily in the Middle East situation, then the least they can do is put their efforts into stopping sanctioned O&G vessels that primarily benefit Russia and Iran.
Right now, the Republicans couldn't have asked for a better position: Cornyn is beating Paxton on the Republican side, and Crockett is beating Talarico.
It's 14% counted (give or take).
Here's the thing: the bits that have declared are the more liberal partas of the State. Very little outside the major cities has come in. So it could still be Paxton v Talarico. Or not.
Oh my.
With 30% in, Talarico has taken the lead over Crockett. He's the moderate Baptist preacher from central casting, who isn't going to scare anyone away.
Cornyn's lead over Paxton is down to four percentage points in the Republican primary with 25% in there. If it's Paxton v Talarico, then (and I know I'll regret saying this) I'd make the Democrats favorites for the Texas Senate seat.
So, not being an expert on this race, I assume Cornyn is the relatively moderate Republican and Paxton is a swivel-eyed MAGA loon?
Indeed.
So loony, in fact that the Republican controlled Texas House of Representatives passed an impeachment vote against him. He's also a scandal magnet, from both a financial and personal perspective. Were he to win, and to face Talarico, I can see quite a few Republicans simply sitting out the race.
Paxton just 2 points behind Cornyn now.
Gap back out to 3 percentage points, witgh 53% in. Cornyn has snatched this, I think.
I have trouble reading this as anything other than Jeremy Corbyn is about to become the Republican candidate for Texas senator.
New rules brought in by the Republicans meant that it was no longer possible to vote at any polling station other than the one allocated to you resulting in hundreds of people being turned away.
America is becoming less and less of a functioning democracy. It's sad.
Hard to be democratic when you view your voters as customers to be fleeced for every penny you can screw out of them.
Good morning, everyone.
How about introducing a FastTrak system - $49 and you jump to the front of the queue; $99 and you can vote at any polling booth; $999 and you get 2 votes
I wonder whether the US will ever recover from this period in their history. It reminded me yesterday of the farting dog who is brought in to deflect from the incontinent grandmother. There mustn't be a country in the world which isn'watching in horror in case they're dragged in.
Yesterday it was the turn of Herr Mertz. He didn't know where to put himslf. It was like he was asked to do an impromptu turn at a school pantomime while the world watched and and all he wanted was the floor to swallow him up.
i really don’t understand those saying Starmer is in any kind of pickle.
He’s made the decisions I would have made (obviously the key determinant of being wise). He didn’t get dragged into the initial, irrational attack, but he’s used our forces to protect us and our allies.
Yes it would have been nice to have more forces pre-positioned to do it, but we can hardly blame him for defence cuts from before his ministry. Those cuts are why we no longer have ships in the gulf or more likelihood of a destroyer being at sea.
I am happy with a PM not leaping into someone else’s war on no notice, in order to pretend we were part of the decision to launch it.
Yes a lot of bad faith actors are pretending his position is incoherent or stupid because they want to join the war.
They should just say so and be done with it.
But his position is perfectly reasonable. All the British people will have heard is that we’ve not joined Trump’s war and Trump hates him.
Actually might do him some good with the voters.
Totally agree. Obviously there is some risk in it, not least because we will be acting in theatre without (we assume) full access to the American plan. But what else can he do?
He could have said to the Americans "we don't want to get involved directly, so our planes will be staying on the ground, but as our allies you are welcome to use the bases".
Instead he had to say not just no to joining in, but no to even using the bases.
In international law, enabling someone else is the same as doing something yourself. If we thought it unlawful, we had to withhold the use of our bases. Had we thought it lawful, we probably should have been involved.
Fetishing international law above alliances, morals and doing the right thing. While also misunderstanding international law.
International law is not some divine tablet handed down from Mount Sinai, it is guidelines that has nuance - and which led Carney and Albanese, both stern critics of Trump, to support the action.
The doctrine of self-defence exists within international law and is applicable here as a matter of fact - Iran is attacking Israel both directly and indirectly, so they and their allies like America are entitled to fight Iran. And pre-emptive self-defence is well-established in international law too. There is no need to wait for a mushroom cloud to appear above Tel Aviv before taking action.
Carney massively rowing back his position. "It's for the United States and Israel to make the case ... prima facie, it appears that these actions are inconsistent with international law" "Canada wasn't asked to participate. ... International law binds so we call for de-escalation"
Comments
The BBC are reporting that a US based Human Rights organisation is claiming over 1,000 civilian casualties already. No idea how an organisation in the US gets that kind of information but so called collateral damage is inevitable. This is going to look like Gaza writ large over the next few weeks.
The distinction between offensive and defensive operations was never a sustainable line for Starmer but he has made a mistake in simply going along with this. If any party in the UK still bears the scars of the Iraq debacle (and they all should) it is Labour. The polling indicates that this is hugely unpopular in the party, way more than it is in the population as a whole. For a PM already on a shoogly peg this is sub-optimal.
Good morning, everyone.
And Hegseth has openly eschewed "woke rules of engagement", so it's not an official concern.
Greens get a boost with MiC this week too mostly at Labours expense f/w Fri to Mon
Ref 29 (+1)
Con 19 (-1)
Lan 18 (-4)
LD 14 (=)
Grn 14 (+3)
SNP 3 (+1)
The Pentagon has burned through so many missiles in the Iran exchange that Trump is dragging Lockheed and Raytheon CEOs into the White House like a failing factory boss demanding overtime. The military admits the Iran strike consumed more long-range munitions than 4 years of Ukraine.
Trump is posting fantasies about “unlimited supply” while Raytheon can barely promise to “eventually” reach 1,000 Tomahawks a year and the Pentagon only budgeted 57 for 2026. The industrial base is so hollowed out they’re threatening contractors with punishment if they don’t ramp up, even though the system physically can’t produce at wartime tempo. America just showed the world that one regional confrontation with Iran drained decades of planning assumptions.
https://bsky.app/profile/ernstthaelmann.bsky.social/post/3mg7byzco3c2s
FWIW I do have a neglected project to measure what proportion of the population lives within a 15-minute walk of a UK polling place. I think the UK is pretty good overall but worth having a look.
NEW THREAD
Just another example of how factional politics is all in SKS Labour and she is in the right faction.
Yesterday it was the turn of Herr Mertz. He didn't know where to put himslf. It was like he was asked to do an impromptu turn at a school pantomime while the world watched and and all he wanted was the floor to swallow him up.