WRT the YouGov polls. If today's is anywhere near right it's fairly epoch making, but not only because of Greens. It continues Reform's record with YG of only being a few points ahead and the other parties bunched. If they are right everything is in play.
The differing methodologies of the poling outfits, and which are most nearly right, is the most interesting question, and maybe insufficiently understood. At least by me.
For now, I stick by the view that Reform are in trouble with a three pronged problem: Closeness to Trump, the Zahawi/Braverman effect, and the mounting evidence of the 'Make Sure Reform Don't Win' alliance.
Reform are at post LE 25 lows with Ashcroft, YG, FoN and Focaldata (22, 23, 26 and 26)and just above with MiC last week. Focaldata are overdue to report so be interesting to see if they dip further or recover. Reform are definitely at 'shields buckling Captain Nigel'
Reform have definitely paid a price for accepting a few too many Tory retreads. Farage probably thought it was worth it to have some semi-plausible potential ministers with experience.
I agree. Called it at the time and got shouted down by my Reform supporting mates on WhatsApp. If Suella Braverman is the answer it’s a fucked up question.
She's on 16% in the polls, which is the lowest the tories have ever polled. In what way has she improved? She's got better at Scrabble? Knocked 30s off her parkrun time?
People have moved online in their heads. Algorithmic feeds put impressive stories about her on their phone. In an attention-based world she is doing very well. To our new chattering classes the polling is irrelevant.
There’s a decent argument that VI polling should be irrelevant, especially at this stage of parliament. They could put out any old numbers. People discuss and treat them as if they were gospel, when they are more often than not completely unreliable.
It's just a shame that the outbreak of World War Three rather overshadowed this year's annual Isle of Wight hedgelaying competition.
I can't decide whether this is refers to planting hedges - does one 'lay' them? - laying in hedges or getting laid in hedges. Or some kind of unspeakable conduct with a hedge We need more information!
Shocking lack of knowledge! Hedge-laying is an ancient art that transforms hedges into proper impenetrable field barriers. Stems are cut almost through then laid horizontally and woven. Usually the hedges are stacked into shape too. The resulting new growth just makes the hedges thicker and stronger.
The decline of hedge laying is why most modern field edges have patchy scrubby hedges plants, rather than proper barriers.
WRT the YouGov polls. If today's is anywhere near right it's fairly epoch making, but not only because of Greens. It continues Reform's record with YG of only being a few points ahead and the other parties bunched. If they are right everything is in play.
The differing methodologies of the poling outfits, and which are most nearly right, is the most interesting question, and maybe insufficiently understood. At least by me.
For now, I stick by the view that Reform are in trouble with a three pronged problem: Closeness to Trump, the Zahawi/Braverman effect, and the mounting evidence of the 'Make Sure Reform Don't Win' alliance.
Reform are at post LE 25 lows with Ashcroft, YG, FoN and Focaldata (22, 23, 26 and 26)and just above with MiC last week. Focaldata are overdue to report so be interesting to see if they dip further or recover. Reform are definitely at 'shields buckling Captain Nigel'
Reform have definitely paid a price for accepting a few too many Tory retreads. Farage probably thought it was worth it to have some semi-plausible potential ministers with experience.
Zahawi first was the killer. With the glitzy video. THAT wanker? Then Kemi killed Jenrick and made him a muppet And Braverman was just cringeworthy and utterly telegraphed.
As Tory adjacent to the extent of considering rejoining the party i'm very hopeful of the vote holding up much better vs reform than last May
Good Morning all. That's a comment on the weather, not the situation, especially in the Middle East.
Mrs C had an 'interesting' conversation yesterday while waiting for me at a physio unit. One of the other females waiting for their semi-abled male partners apparently explained to her why the country was in 'such a mess' It's all the refugees, apparently; paid £600 on arrival, given free food and housing, cars, and other benefits. The woman went on at some length apparently in the same vein.
Where do these stories come from? Admittedly this was in Braintree, which is festooned with Union Jacks and St Georges crosses, and where there's apparently a fund to make sure said 'decorations' are maintained in good condition.
Wethersfield being round the corner probably doesn’t help
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
Quite right. The comment is at best in extremely bad taste.
She's on 16% in the polls, which is the lowest the tories have ever polled. In what way has she improved? She's got better at Scrabble? Knocked 30s off her parkrun time?
People have moved online in their heads. Algorithmic feeds put impressive stories about her on their phone. In an attention-based world she is doing very well. To our new chattering classes the polling is irrelevant.
There’s a decent argument that VI polling should be irrelevant, especially at this stage of parliament. They could put out any old numbers. People discuss and treat them as if they were gospel, when they are more often than not completely unreliable.
It would be interesting to consider what political discourse would be like in the absence of opinion polling.
I guess there are enough other ways to tell whether a policy/party is popular or unpopular that it might not change as much as all that. But I can see an argument that the difference would be very large. Without opinion polling (and I assume also without focus groups) politicians might have to go out and meet ordinary voters more often to get a feel for political opinion.
She's on 16% in the polls, which is the lowest the tories have ever polled. In what way has she improved? She's got better at Scrabble? Knocked 30s off her parkrun time?
People have moved online in their heads. Algorithmic feeds put impressive stories about her on their phone. In an attention-based world she is doing very well. To our new chattering classes the polling is irrelevant.
So what is the chattering classes view? And how is that measured?
The number of approving podcasts and other online "hot takes". Even, unsarcastically, us at PB.
The pb view, like the polling, is better for her than it was.
Green over Reform for me. Why? Because they wouldn't deport a shit load of my friends and colleagues. That's why.
Your regular guide to the likely contests in the next GE, which increasingly resembles middle eastern politics:
Reform v Not Reform Govt v Not Govt Right v Left Establishment v Insurgent Centre Left v Outer Left Centre Right (if you can find one) v Outer Right NATO v Leave NATO Failed Powers of Lab/Con v Everyone else including LD Fairly Sensible v Populist
and, extra to Scotland and Wales Nationalist v Current UK
We (the members) definitely do and if we're in government we'll find a way to do it.
when someone tells you who/what they are, believe them.
The Greens here in the UK, un-tested through years of coalition government are the loony fringe of the left. They've elected a genuine loony in Polanski, and their policy basket is a recipe for disaster.
It's just a shame that the outbreak of World War Three rather overshadowed this year's annual Isle of Wight hedgelaying competition.
I can't decide whether this is refers to planting hedges - does one 'lay' them? - laying in hedges or getting laid in hedges. Or some kind of unspeakable conduct with a hedge We need more information!
Shocking lack of knowledge! Hedge-laying is an ancient art that transforms hedges into proper impenetrable field barriers. Stems are cut almost through then laid horizontally and woven. Usually the hedges are stacked into shape too. The resulting new growth just makes the hedges thicker and stronger.
The decline of hedge laying is why most modern field edges have patchy scrubby hedges plants, rather than proper barriers.
Ha, yes. Is it stock proof though? It doesn't look it when driving past.
I have a selection of hideous machetes hidden away - which probably shouldn't be seen in public these days - mainly for doing hedgelaying.
If you just cut a hedge every year instead of laying it at least once you end up with gaps at the bottom and you will fail the hedgerow biodiversity assessment. Tut!
We (the members) definitely do and if we're in government we'll find a way to do it.
when someone tells you who/what they are, believe them.
The Greens here in the UK, un-tested through years of coalition government are the loony fringe of the left. They've elected a genuine loony in Polanski, and their policy basket is a recipe for disaster.
It's certainly a risk, but is it that taboo to suggest that we might need to move on from NATO ? This has been discussed by many posters of left and right hete since Greenland, and Ukraine.
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
If said party had a history of racism against white people it would be a valid comment. I'm not going to deny what I can see with my own eyes about the Reform agenda and the threat it poses, it is existential for me and my family so I'm not going to censor myself in the interests of political correctness.
The greens are actively supporting, platforming and enabling islamofascism. Their deputy leader celebrates the rapes and murders of Jews on October 7. The same Green guy attends protests in SUPPORT of the evil Iranian regime
Likewise, the Greens want open borders and mass immigration which will destroy Britain as we know it, and they seek to leave us defenceless to boot
Compared to that Reform are about as menacing as the Lib Dems
Yes, agreed. I'm no fan of Reform but I would vote tactically for them to keep the Greens out. But I suspect among the middle aged and middle class I am in a minority, yet. I am on a Whatsapp group with some school friends. About the time of the Runcorn by-election a friend of mine gave a sad little homily telling us about how he had warned his sons about 'snake oil salesmen'. But he just seems to regard the Green win in Gorton as funny; I would regard the Green snakeoil as just as poisonous if not more so. It turns out the girlfriend of another friend was actually doorknocking for the Greens so perhaps he is just being polite.
It bears repeating: what has happened here is that the cuddly "Green" brand has been hijacked by a gruesome mob of far-left tankies who would never remotely get these polling figures without it. I'm only surprised that George Galloway hasn't joined yet.
But, sadly, lots of folk take them at face-value and think the best way of protecting their fields, and saving turtle doves, is by voting "Green". Hence Green MPs in East Anglia and Herefordshire.
Local elections....... What on earth would the picture be on NEV of (trying to formulate something adjacent to polling and in anticipation of particularly depressed Lab turnout). What would that look like mapped?!?!
We (the members) definitely do and if we're in government we'll find a way to do it.
when someone tells you who/what they are, believe them.
The Greens here in the UK, un-tested through years of coalition government are the loony fringe of the left. They've elected a genuine loony in Polanski, and their policy basket is a recipe for disaster.
It's certainly a risk, but is it that taboo to suggest that we might need to move on from NATO ? This has been discussed by many posters of left and right hete since Greenland.
Taboo? No. Just usually a sign someone hasn’t thought past the dopamine hit of saying it.
NATO isn’t a vibes club, it’s 75 years of plumbing that stops wars starting. It: Deters by making any attack on one member an attack on all (the whole point is you don’t get to find out if it “would have worked”). Binds the US into European security, which is basically the central bargain of post-45 Europe. Standardises kit, comms, intel, logistics, training. That boring interoperability stuff is why allied forces can actually operate together rather than roleplay a coalition. Projects credibility: forward presence, exercises, air policing, maritime patrols. You can call it “provocation” if you like, but it’s why borders haven’t been redrawn by force across most of Europe for decades.
So sure, debate it. But “move on from NATO” isn’t a debate, it’s a policy. If you’re serious, answer the grown-up questions: What replaces Article 5 on day one? Who underwrites the nuclear umbrella? What’s the transition plan while you rebuild a UK-only or EU-only deterrent? How much more tax are you raising to pay for it?
If the answer is “we’ll figure it out later”, that’s not brave. That’s just letting Russia, China, and every chancer with a map and a grievance do the figuring out for you.
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
If said party had a history of racism against white people it would be a valid comment. I'm not going to deny what I can see with my own eyes about the Reform agenda and the threat it poses, it is existential for me and my family so I'm not going to censor myself in the interests of political correctness.
The greens are actively supporting, platforming and enabling islamofascism. Their deputy leader celebrates the rapes and murders of Jews on October 7. The same Green guy attends protests in SUPPORT of the evil Iranian regime
Likewise, the Greens want open borders and mass immigration which will destroy Britain as we know it, and they seek to leave us defenceless to boot
Compared to that Reform are about as menacing as the Lib Dems
Yes, agreed. I'm no fan of Reform but I would vote tactically for them to keep the Greens out. But I suspect among the middle aged and middle class I am in a minority, yet. I am on a Whatsapp group with some school friends. About the time of the Runcorn by-election a friend of mine gave a sad little homily telling us about how he had warned his sons about 'snake oil salesmen'. But he just seems to regard the Green win in Gorton as funny; I would regard the Green snakeoil as just as poisonous if not more so. It turns out the girlfriend of another friend was actually doorknocking for the Greens so perhaps he is just being polite.
It bears repeating: what has happened here is that the cuddly "Green" brand has been hijacked by a gruesome mob of far-left tankies who would never remotely get these polling figures without it. I'm only surprised that George Galloway hasn't joined yet.
But, sadly, lots of folk take them at face-value and think the best way of protecting their fields, and saving turtle doves, is by voting "Green". Hence Green MPs in East Anglia and Herefordshire.
You'll have a chance to stop the gruesome mob of far-left tankies by voting for Reform in May, at least on the list.
We (the members) definitely do and if we're in government we'll find a way to do it.
when someone tells you who/what they are, believe them.
The Greens here in the UK, un-tested through years of coalition government are the loony fringe of the left. They've elected a genuine loony in Polanski, and their policy basket is a recipe for disaster.
It's certainly a risk, but is it that taboo to suggest that we might need to move on from NATO ? This has been discussed by many posters of left and right hete since Greenland.
Taboo? No. Just usually a sign someone hasn’t thought past the dopamine hit of saying it.
NATO isn’t a vibes club, it’s 75 years of plumbing that stops wars starting. It: Deters by making any attack on one member an attack on all (the whole point is you don’t get to find out if it “would have worked”). Binds the US into European security, which is basically the central bargain of post-45 Europe. Standardises kit, comms, intel, logistics, training. That boring interoperability stuff is why allied forces can actually operate together rather than roleplay a coalition. Projects credibility: forward presence, exercises, air policing, maritime patrols. You can call it “provocation” if you like, but it’s why borders haven’t been redrawn by force across most of Europe for decades.
So sure, debate it. But “move on from NATO” isn’t a debate, it’s a policy. If you’re serious, answer the grown-up questions: What replaces Article 5 on day one? Who underwrites the nuclear umbrella? What’s the transition plan while you rebuild a UK-only or EU-only deterrent? How much more tax are you raising to pay for it?
If the answer is “we’ll figure it out later”, that’s not brave. That’s just letting Russia, China, and every chancer with a map and a grievance do the figuring out for you.
As mentored, I'm not necessarily in favour of such a policy. But what will determine if it"s necessary is the U.S., rather than our choices. Thus Starmer is certainly right to be interested in joining Macron's European nuclear umbrella plan as a contingency., for instance.
It's just a shame that the outbreak of World War Three rather overshadowed this year's annual Isle of Wight hedgelaying competition.
I can't decide whether this is refers to planting hedges - does one 'lay' them? - laying in hedges or getting laid in hedges. Or some kind of unspeakable conduct with a hedge We need more information!
Or possibly a financial instrument where the party providing a hedge against the future price offsets their risk by getting other parties to hedge their own hedge - or hedge laying?
We (the members) definitely do and if we're in government we'll find a way to do it.
when someone tells you who/what they are, believe them.
The Greens here in the UK, un-tested through years of coalition government are the loony fringe of the left. They've elected a genuine loony in Polanski, and their policy basket is a recipe for disaster.
It's certainly a risk, but is it that taboo to suggest that we might need to move on from NATO ? This has been discussed by many posters of left and right hete since Greenland.
Taboo? No. Just usually a sign someone hasn’t thought past the dopamine hit of saying it.
NATO isn’t a vibes club, it’s 75 years of plumbing that stops wars starting. It: Deters by making any attack on one member an attack on all (the whole point is you don’t get to find out if it “would have worked”). Binds the US into European security, which is basically the central bargain of post-45 Europe. Standardises kit, comms, intel, logistics, training. That boring interoperability stuff is why allied forces can actually operate together rather than roleplay a coalition. Projects credibility: forward presence, exercises, air policing, maritime patrols. You can call it “provocation” if you like, but it’s why borders haven’t been redrawn by force across most of Europe for decades.
So sure, debate it. But “move on from NATO” isn’t a debate, it’s a policy. If you’re serious, answer the grown-up questions: What replaces Article 5 on day one? Who underwrites the nuclear umbrella? What’s the transition plan while you rebuild a UK-only or EU-only deterrent? How much more tax are you raising to pay for it?
If the answer is “we’ll figure it out later”, that’s not brave. That’s just letting Russia, China, and every chancer with a map and a grievance do the figuring out for you.
Trump has been pretty clear. The US are not bound into European security, we are merely a military customer to be extorted financially.
Question for Badenoch and others. Why is it in the interests of the United Kingdom to join the United States in supporting Israel's effort to devastate the Middle East?
You need to ask Canada and Australia the same question
It's what allies do
I think the problem with that is that we are perhaps 80% no longer allies of the USA. And there is a modest chance that we may be allies again when Trump has gone and if the USA recovers to some extent.
Managing the changing relationship with the USA is an order of magnitude more important than conflict around Iran.
A phrase I heard yesterday seems about right:
Trump thinks that allies are subcontractors who can be stiffed.
(It was probably Ukraine the Latest or Battle Lines.)
May 26 might end up the No Overall Control of councils election. Which would suit the Greens as they can point to ward gains. There arent many councils outside London they stand to capture outright
It's just a shame that the outbreak of World War Three rather overshadowed this year's annual Isle of Wight hedgelaying competition.
I can't decide whether this is refers to planting hedges - does one 'lay' them? - laying in hedges or getting laid in hedges. Or some kind of unspeakable conduct with a hedge We need more information!
Or possibly a financial instrument where the party providing a hedge against the future price offsets their risk by getting other parties to hedge their own hedge - or hedge laying?
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
If said party had a history of racism against white people it would be a valid comment. I'm not going to deny what I can see with my own eyes about the Reform agenda and the threat it poses, it is existential for me and my family so I'm not going to censor myself in the interests of political correctness.
The greens are actively supporting, platforming and enabling islamofascism. Their deputy leader celebrates the rapes and murders of Jews on October 7. The same Green guy attends protests in SUPPORT of the evil Iranian regime
Likewise, the Greens want open borders and mass immigration which will destroy Britain as we know it, and they seek to leave us defenceless to boot
Compared to that Reform are about as menacing as the Lib Dems
Yes, agreed. I'm no fan of Reform but I would vote tactically for them to keep the Greens out. But I suspect among the middle aged and middle class I am in a minority, yet. I am on a Whatsapp group with some school friends. About the time of the Runcorn by-election a friend of mine gave a sad little homily telling us about how he had warned his sons about 'snake oil salesmen'. But he just seems to regard the Green win in Gorton as funny; I would regard the Green snakeoil as just as poisonous if not more so. It turns out the girlfriend of another friend was actually doorknocking for the Greens so perhaps he is just being polite.
It bears repeating: what has happened here is that the cuddly "Green" brand has been hijacked by a gruesome mob of far-left tankies who would never remotely get these polling figures without it. I'm only surprised that George Galloway hasn't joined yet.
But, sadly, lots of folk take them at face-value and think the best way of protecting their fields, and saving turtle doves, is by voting "Green". Hence Green MPs in East Anglia and Herefordshire.
You'll have a chance to stop the gruesome mob of far-left tankies by voting for Reform in May, at least on the list.
So tax and big spend, committed to NATO but end Trident, rejoin EU, net zero by 2040, on Gaza, end cooperation with Israel, ceasefire, war crimes investigation. Not sure whether frequent flyer levies, Leveson II, wealth tax on £10m+, rent controls or nationalization of Public utilities is the cause of the McCarthyite hysteria?
Misplaced if you ask me, not even a slightly radical left policy agenda survives the concerted onslaught of the UK's press intact, unlike radical right policies.
Question for Badenoch and others. Why is it in the interests of the United Kingdom to join the United States in supporting Israel's effort to devastate the Middle East?
You need to ask Canada and Australia the same question
It's what allies do
I think the problem with that is that we are perhaps 80% no longer allies of the USA. And there is a modest chance that we may be allies again when Trump has gone and if the USA recovers to some extent.
Managing the changing relationship with the USA is an order of magnitude more important than conflict around Iran.
A phrase I heard yesterday seems about right:
Trump thinks that allies are subcontractors who can be stiffed.
(It was probably Ukraine the Latest or Battle Lines.)
The worst situation for Europe (and us) would be if Vance succeeded Trump.
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
If said party had a history of racism against white people it would be a valid comment. I'm not going to deny what I can see with my own eyes about the Reform agenda and the threat it poses, it is existential for me and my family so I'm not going to censor myself in the interests of political correctness.
The greens are actively supporting, platforming and enabling islamofascism. Their deputy leader celebrates the rapes and murders of Jews on October 7. The same Green guy attends protests in SUPPORT of the evil Iranian regime
Likewise, the Greens want open borders and mass immigration which will destroy Britain as we know it, and they seek to leave us defenceless to boot
Compared to that Reform are about as menacing as the Lib Dems
Yes, agreed. I'm no fan of Reform but I would vote tactically for them to keep the Greens out. But I suspect among the middle aged and middle class I am in a minority, yet. I am on a Whatsapp group with some school friends. About the time of the Runcorn by-election a friend of mine gave a sad little homily telling us about how he had warned his sons about 'snake oil salesmen'. But he just seems to regard the Green win in Gorton as funny; I would regard the Green snakeoil as just as poisonous if not more so. It turns out the girlfriend of another friend was actually doorknocking for the Greens so perhaps he is just being polite.
It bears repeating: what has happened here is that the cuddly "Green" brand has been hijacked by a gruesome mob of far-left tankies who would never remotely get these polling figures without it. I'm only surprised that George Galloway hasn't joined yet.
But, sadly, lots of folk take them at face-value and think the best way of protecting their fields, and saving turtle doves, is by voting "Green". Hence Green MPs in East Anglia and Herefordshire.
You'll have a chance to stop the gruesome mob of far-left tankies by voting for Reform in May, at least on the list.
So tax and big spend, committed to NATO but end Trident, rejoin EU, net zero by 2040, on Gaza, end cooperation with Israel, ceasefire, war crimes investigation. Not sure whether frequent flyer levies, Leveson II, wealth tax on £10m+, rent controls or nationalization of Public utilities is the cause of the McCarthyite hysteria?
Misplaced if you ask me, not even a slightly radical left policy agenda survives the concerted onslaught of the UK's press intact, unlike radical right policies.
Of that list, rent controls are probably what would give me the most pause for thought about voting green. Then wealth tax.
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
If said party had a history of racism against white people it would be a valid comment. I'm not going to deny what I can see with my own eyes about the Reform agenda and the threat it poses, it is existential for me and my family so I'm not going to censor myself in the interests of political correctness.
The greens are actively supporting, platforming and enabling islamofascism. Their deputy leader celebrates the rapes and murders of Jews on October 7. The same Green guy attends protests in SUPPORT of the evil Iranian regime
Likewise, the Greens want open borders and mass immigration which will destroy Britain as we know it, and they seek to leave us defenceless to boot
Compared to that Reform are about as menacing as the Lib Dems
Yes, agreed. I'm no fan of Reform but I would vote tactically for them to keep the Greens out. But I suspect among the middle aged and middle class I am in a minority, yet. I am on a Whatsapp group with some school friends. About the time of the Runcorn by-election a friend of mine gave a sad little homily telling us about how he had warned his sons about 'snake oil salesmen'. But he just seems to regard the Green win in Gorton as funny; I would regard the Green snakeoil as just as poisonous if not more so. It turns out the girlfriend of another friend was actually doorknocking for the Greens so perhaps he is just being polite.
It bears repeating: what has happened here is that the cuddly "Green" brand has been hijacked by a gruesome mob of far-left tankies who would never remotely get these polling figures without it. I'm only surprised that George Galloway hasn't joined yet.
But, sadly, lots of folk take them at face-value and think the best way of protecting their fields, and saving turtle doves, is by voting "Green". Hence Green MPs in East Anglia and Herefordshire.
You'll have a chance to stop the gruesome mob of far-left tankies by voting for Reform in May, at least on the list.
It’s getting awfully ConHomeish on here. It seems to be full of warmongers sitting on their sofas safe in the knowledge they’re too old to be called up. See you later.
Someone on here suggested that if the UK repatriates tax exiles their passports should be held and they should stay in the UK for 91 days , becoming liable for UK tax.
We (the members) definitely do and if we're in government we'll find a way to do it.
Interesting, not current policy although Polanski has proposed it, is that to be independent or to abandon NATO for a European alternative?
I can see, and sympathize with, the argument for leaving a MAGA-US dominated NATO for a European alternative mutual defence organisation but not to be alone.
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
If said party had a history of racism against white people it would be a valid comment. I'm not going to deny what I can see with my own eyes about the Reform agenda and the threat it poses, it is existential for me and my family so I'm not going to censor myself in the interests of political correctness.
The greens are actively supporting, platforming and enabling islamofascism. Their deputy leader celebrates the rapes and murders of Jews on October 7. The same Green guy attends protests in SUPPORT of the evil Iranian regime
Likewise, the Greens want open borders and mass immigration which will destroy Britain as we know it, and they seek to leave us defenceless to boot
Compared to that Reform are about as menacing as the Lib Dems
Yes, agreed. I'm no fan of Reform but I would vote tactically for them to keep the Greens out. But I suspect among the middle aged and middle class I am in a minority, yet. I am on a Whatsapp group with some school friends. About the time of the Runcorn by-election a friend of mine gave a sad little homily telling us about how he had warned his sons about 'snake oil salesmen'. But he just seems to regard the Green win in Gorton as funny; I would regard the Green snakeoil as just as poisonous if not more so. It turns out the girlfriend of another friend was actually doorknocking for the Greens so perhaps he is just being polite.
It bears repeating: what has happened here is that the cuddly "Green" brand has been hijacked by a gruesome mob of far-left tankies who would never remotely get these polling figures without it. I'm only surprised that George Galloway hasn't joined yet.
But, sadly, lots of folk take them at face-value and think the best way of protecting their fields, and saving turtle doves, is by voting "Green". Hence Green MPs in East Anglia and Herefordshire.
You'll have a chance to stop the gruesome mob of far-left tankies by voting for Reform in May, at least on the list.
So tax and big spend, committed to NATO but end Trident, rejoin EU, net zero by 2040, on Gaza, end cooperation with Israel, ceasefire, war crimes investigation. Not sure whether frequent flyer levies, Leveson II, wealth tax on £10m+, rent controls or nationalization of Public utilities is the cause of the McCarthyite hysteria?
Misplaced if you ask me, not even a slightly radical left policy agenda survives the concerted onslaught of the UK's press intact, unlike radical right policies.
Of that list, rent controls are probably what would give me the most pause for thought about voting green. Then wealth tax.
Can empathize, currently letting out the parental home to offset care fees, should have sold it.
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
If said party had a history of racism against white people it would be a valid comment. I'm not going to deny what I can see with my own eyes about the Reform agenda and the threat it poses, it is existential for me and my family so I'm not going to censor myself in the interests of political correctness.
The greens are actively supporting, platforming and enabling islamofascism. Their deputy leader celebrates the rapes and murders of Jews on October 7. The same Green guy attends protests in SUPPORT of the evil Iranian regime
Likewise, the Greens want open borders and mass immigration which will destroy Britain as we know it, and they seek to leave us defenceless to boot
Compared to that Reform are about as menacing as the Lib Dems
Yes, agreed. I'm no fan of Reform but I would vote tactically for them to keep the Greens out. But I suspect among the middle aged and middle class I am in a minority, yet. I am on a Whatsapp group with some school friends. About the time of the Runcorn by-election a friend of mine gave a sad little homily telling us about how he had warned his sons about 'snake oil salesmen'. But he just seems to regard the Green win in Gorton as funny; I would regard the Green snakeoil as just as poisonous if not more so. It turns out the girlfriend of another friend was actually doorknocking for the Greens so perhaps he is just being polite.
It bears repeating: what has happened here is that the cuddly "Green" brand has been hijacked by a gruesome mob of far-left tankies who would never remotely get these polling figures without it. I'm only surprised that George Galloway hasn't joined yet.
But, sadly, lots of folk take them at face-value and think the best way of protecting their fields, and saving turtle doves, is by voting "Green". Hence Green MPs in East Anglia and Herefordshire.
You'll have a chance to stop the gruesome mob of far-left tankies by voting for Reform in May, at least on the list.
It’s getting awfully ConHomeish on here. It seems to be full of warmongers sitting on their sofas safe in the knowledge they’re too old to be called up. See you later.
Is it ?
There’s only one warmonger here. The rest, I think the rest of us want this over ASAP.
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
If said party had a history of racism against white people it would be a valid comment. I'm not going to deny what I can see with my own eyes about the Reform agenda and the threat it poses, it is existential for me and my family so I'm not going to censor myself in the interests of political correctness.
The greens are actively supporting, platforming and enabling islamofascism. Their deputy leader celebrates the rapes and murders of Jews on October 7. The same Green guy attends protests in SUPPORT of the evil Iranian regime
Likewise, the Greens want open borders and mass immigration which will destroy Britain as we know it, and they seek to leave us defenceless to boot
Compared to that Reform are about as menacing as the Lib Dems
Yes, agreed. I'm no fan of Reform but I would vote tactically for them to keep the Greens out. But I suspect among the middle aged and middle class I am in a minority, yet. I am on a Whatsapp group with some school friends. About the time of the Runcorn by-election a friend of mine gave a sad little homily telling us about how he had warned his sons about 'snake oil salesmen'. But he just seems to regard the Green win in Gorton as funny; I would regard the Green snakeoil as just as poisonous if not more so. It turns out the girlfriend of another friend was actually doorknocking for the Greens so perhaps he is just being polite.
It bears repeating: what has happened here is that the cuddly "Green" brand has been hijacked by a gruesome mob of far-left tankies who would never remotely get these polling figures without it. I'm only surprised that George Galloway hasn't joined yet.
But, sadly, lots of folk take them at face-value and think the best way of protecting their fields, and saving turtle doves, is by voting "Green". Hence Green MPs in East Anglia and Herefordshire.
You'll have a chance to stop the gruesome mob of far-left tankies by voting for Reform in May, at least on the list.
So tax and big spend, committed to NATO but end Trident, rejoin EU, net zero by 2040, on Gaza, end cooperation with Israel, ceasefire, war crimes investigation. Not sure whether frequent flyer levies, Leveson II, wealth tax on £10m+, rent controls or nationalization of Public utilities is the cause of the McCarthyite hysteria?
Misplaced if you ask me, not even a slightly radical left policy agenda survives the concerted onslaught of the UK's press intact, unlike radical right policies.
Of that list, rent controls are probably what would give me the most pause for thought about voting green. Then wealth tax.
Can empathize, currently letting out the parental home to offset care fees, should have sold it.
The extra financial headroom Reeves seems to have may well be needed later in the year if inflation spikes and energy prices go up .
To be fair today' s statement is pointlees and to be fair it is not Reeves fault
Unfortunately all the forecasts are already old news. But she could say something about possible rising energy prices and whether the government would be willing to help on that front .
WRT the YouGov polls. If today's is anywhere near right it's fairly epoch making, but not only because of Greens. It continues Reform's record with YG of only being a few points ahead and the other parties bunched. If they are right everything is in play.
The differing methodologies of the poling outfits, and which are most nearly right, is the most interesting question, and maybe insufficiently understood. At least by me.
For now, I stick by the view that Reform are in trouble with a three pronged problem: Closeness to Trump, the Zahawi/Braverman effect, and the mounting evidence of the 'Make Sure Reform Don't Win' alliance.
Reform are at post LE 25 lows with Ashcroft, YG, FoN and Focaldata (22, 23, 26 and 26)and just above with MiC last week. Focaldata are overdue to report so be interesting to see if they dip further or recover. Reform are definitely at 'shields buckling Captain Nigel'
Reform have definitely paid a price for accepting a few too many Tory retreads. Farage probably thought it was worth it to have some semi-plausible potential ministers with experience.
The brand looks distinctly seedy. It could be the new Tory retreads or it could be the feeling that they're now part of the Trump circus which to those just in it for the flags and patriotism is rather off putting
The extra financial headroom Reeves seems to have may well be needed later in the year if inflation spikes and energy prices go up .
In terms of trashing the economy, I agree.
But I hope she holds her nerve in terms of doing another massive energy bill support scheme. We can't afford it and we, as individuals, need to get more serious about saving for a rainy day and transitioning away from consuming the kind of fuels that are so vulnerable to this kind of shock.
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
If said party had a history of racism against white people it would be a valid comment. I'm not going to deny what I can see with my own eyes about the Reform agenda and the threat it poses, it is existential for me and my family so I'm not going to censor myself in the interests of political correctness.
The greens are actively supporting, platforming and enabling islamofascism. Their deputy leader celebrates the rapes and murders of Jews on October 7. The same Green guy attends protests in SUPPORT of the evil Iranian regime
Likewise, the Greens want open borders and mass immigration which will destroy Britain as we know it, and they seek to leave us defenceless to boot
Compared to that Reform are about as menacing as the Lib Dems
Yes, agreed. I'm no fan of Reform but I would vote tactically for them to keep the Greens out. But I suspect among the middle aged and middle class I am in a minority, yet. I am on a Whatsapp group with some school friends. About the time of the Runcorn by-election a friend of mine gave a sad little homily telling us about how he had warned his sons about 'snake oil salesmen'. But he just seems to regard the Green win in Gorton as funny; I would regard the Green snakeoil as just as poisonous if not more so. It turns out the girlfriend of another friend was actually doorknocking for the Greens so perhaps he is just being polite.
It bears repeating: what has happened here is that the cuddly "Green" brand has been hijacked by a gruesome mob of far-left tankies who would never remotely get these polling figures without it. I'm only surprised that George Galloway hasn't joined yet.
But, sadly, lots of folk take them at face-value and think the best way of protecting their fields, and saving turtle doves, is by voting "Green". Hence Green MPs in East Anglia and Herefordshire.
You'll have a chance to stop the gruesome mob of far-left tankies by voting for Reform in May, at least on the list.
It’s getting awfully ConHomeish on here. It seems to be full of warmongers sitting on their sofas safe in the knowledge they’re too old to be called up. See you later.
Is it ?
There’s only one warmonger here. The rest, I think the rest of us want this over ASAP.
I couldn't agree more
We can argue the rights and wrongs but it will not change where we are now and a middle east in a war with untold consequences
The gulf states are on the verge of ending neutrality in the war against Iran according to the Guardian
The Labour inclination to become the Greens is where they are going wrong.
They really need to chart their own course from the centre.
Shabana Mahmood seems to be the ONLY Labour figure who understands you can be radical from the centre.
God help us! Have you ever thought you might be better off with the Tories or Reform?
If Labour don't address problems that need fixing then the eventual solutions will inevitably be applied by Tories and Reform.
We see similar with the rise of the Greens, which is a direct result of the Tories refusing to tackle generational inequality.
Political parties can ignore long term issues because they are uncomfortable for their parties for 5-10 years easily, sometimes 20 years at a push, but eventually they will see a reaction and find their opponents take action they really dislike rather than are uncomfortable with.
In other words, the administration has entered a campaign where the only clear path to decisive victory is regime change — and it is far from clear that Washington is willing to invest the resources and long-term commitment such an outcome would demand.
No internal shift within the regime — and no successor to Khamenei — is likely to present surrender terms to the United States.
From Tehran’s perspective, capitulation would mean the collapse of the very ideological foundation of the Islamic Republic. Any leader who emerges from within the system will be bound by the same core principles and strategic red lines.
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
If said party had a history of racism against white people it would be a valid comment. I'm not going to deny what I can see with my own eyes about the Reform agenda and the threat it poses, it is existential for me and my family so I'm not going to censor myself in the interests of political correctness.
The greens are actively supporting, platforming and enabling islamofascism. Their deputy leader celebrates the rapes and murders of Jews on October 7. The same Green guy attends protests in SUPPORT of the evil Iranian regime
Likewise, the Greens want open borders and mass immigration which will destroy Britain as we know it, and they seek to leave us defenceless to boot
Compared to that Reform are about as menacing as the Lib Dems
Yes, agreed. I'm no fan of Reform but I would vote tactically for them to keep the Greens out. But I suspect among the middle aged and middle class I am in a minority, yet. I am on a Whatsapp group with some school friends. About the time of the Runcorn by-election a friend of mine gave a sad little homily telling us about how he had warned his sons about 'snake oil salesmen'. But he just seems to regard the Green win in Gorton as funny; I would regard the Green snakeoil as just as poisonous if not more so. It turns out the girlfriend of another friend was actually doorknocking for the Greens so perhaps he is just being polite.
It bears repeating: what has happened here is that the cuddly "Green" brand has been hijacked by a gruesome mob of far-left tankies who would never remotely get these polling figures without it. I'm only surprised that George Galloway hasn't joined yet.
But, sadly, lots of folk take them at face-value and think the best way of protecting their fields, and saving turtle doves, is by voting "Green". Hence Green MPs in East Anglia and Herefordshire.
You'll have a chance to stop the gruesome mob of far-left tankies by voting for Reform in May, at least on the list.
Well, if Reform not your thing, there's always Alba who, despite the efforts of the leadership not to contest the election (!), are being challenged by a peasants' revolt of members who are determined to enter the fray.
"Lead Highlands & Islands candidate and former MP, Angus Brendan MacNeil, addressed the meeting, praising the resilience of the local office bearers: "It has been a significant challenge to hold a member meeting under these conditions. While a formal invite may not have reached the full membership due to the current restrictions on our systems, I was heartened by the overwhelming response the office bearers managed to secure.
"Last night’s meeting amplified my conviction that this decision belongs to the members. The candidates are ready, the will is there, and the cause of Scotland’s independence is far too important to abandon. Surely it is better for a cause of this magnitude to stand fighting than to die on its knees.”
Well, you don't want to die on your knees, that's for sure.
Cyprus is operating with a U2 taking off this morning, but is poorly defended given it is half an hour away from Israel and closer to Lebanon
Greece and France are sending ships but where are our frigates ?
We have 6 of which only 3 are available, so why hasn't one been deployed to Cyprus
Debbie Haynes, Sky's defence spokesperson, suggests it is because we are not ready for war as the defence chiefs have warned
The pressure on increased defence spending it going to ratchet up
On the question of frigates, they are quite rapidly being built, but the existing ones are fucked,
They are fucked because of smaller orders built more slowly than planned (thanks, Treasury) which means, since the number of taskings are not reduced (thanks, Number 10), the smaller number get worked to death after costing more per unit. Or alternatively they are sold off early to save pennies, and the others are still worked to death.
So when the next lot are also delayed, they current fucked fleet can't be life extended, because they tend to be fucked.
I think in general the Type 26s (City Class) are 3 to 4 year nehind original due date, for reasons.
To my eye, the main villains are David Cameron and George Osborne for their 20% insta cut of the Defence Budget in ~2010, with a supporting performance from Gordon Brown and a layer of Johnsonian fudge and bollocks on top.
On tasking, aiui ( @Malmesbury will advise) we sensibly need about 25-28 escort class ships for the taskings.
The extra financial headroom Reeves seems to have may well be needed later in the year if inflation spikes and energy prices go up .
To be fair today' s statement is pointlees and to be fair it is not Reeves fault
I don't often argue for this, but it should be postponed in order to allow for an adjustment to the expected oil/gas/inflation to be factored in. These events are very new and obviously won't have been worked into the calculations.
Interesting projections for the local elections, by ward. Pre-Gorton, of course, though I suspect local by elections offer a better guide than opinion polls.
That's a really good resource, but I don't necessarily think it is possible to capture all the local nuance, known or unknown, at this level. I look at Kirklees and I could quibble with plenty of things.
I'll try not to be comprehensive, but give a few examples:
(1) Holme Valley North: I think the traditional local independent could win outright, but the missing thing here is all-up, 3 seats to play for, and Reform have a very good chance of being the 2 seat undercard.
(2) Dalton: I very much doubt it is a 73% Reform gain for first place. Kirkheaton is classic Red/Blue = Reform through the middle territory, the idea that Dalton itself, where so many of the voters are mixed ethnicity, doesn't quite compute. But I guess Labour remain competitive, Green haven't really targeted and it could be won on a very low winning share.
(3) Of HV South, Kirkburton and Denny Dale, Con have more consistently won Kirkburton over the years, so I'd guess at that rather than HV South being the Bluest
(4) I think LD, Green chances are being understated where they are putting up a defence. They will draw in some other left voters.
(5) I think Green progress in Manchester (and perhaps Denton NE) is underplayed, though the by election probably wasn't factored in.
So, I think in terms of bulk results, even without polling shift, Reform may not be sitting quite so pretty this year as last.
WRT the YouGov polls. If today's is anywhere near right it's fairly epoch making, but not only because of Greens. It continues Reform's record with YG of only being a few points ahead and the other parties bunched. If they are right everything is in play.
The differing methodologies of the poling outfits, and which are most nearly right, is the most interesting question, and maybe insufficiently understood. At least by me.
For now, I stick by the view that Reform are in trouble with a three pronged problem: Closeness to Trump, the Zahawi/Braverman effect, and the mounting evidence of the 'Make Sure Reform Don't Win' alliance.
Reform are at post LE 25 lows with Ashcroft, YG, FoN and Focaldata (22, 23, 26 and 26)and just above with MiC last week. Focaldata are overdue to report so be interesting to see if they dip further or recover. Reform are definitely at 'shields buckling Captain Nigel'
Reform have definitely paid a price for accepting a few too many Tory retreads. Farage probably thought it was worth it to have some semi-plausible potential ministers with experience.
The brand looks distinctly seedy. It could be the new Tory retreads or it could be the feeling that they're now part of the Trump circus which to those just in it for the flags and patriotism is rather off putting
Reform were and are a vehicle for disatisfaction with 'the establishment' and from a broadly anti immigration/right front. Becoming a new version of the establishment its supporters hate is the beginning of the end. It will prompt many of their former non voters to think 'why bother?' again and, perhaps, many converts to wander back 'home'
Interesting projections for the local elections, by ward. Pre-Gorton, of course, though I suspect local by elections offer a better guide than opinion polls.
That's a really good resource, but I don't necessarily think it is possible to capture all the local nuance, known or unknown, at this level. I look at Kirklees and I could quibble with plenty of things.
I'll try not to be comprehensive, but give a few examples:
(1) Holme Valley North: I think the traditional local independent could win outright, but the missing thing here is all-up, 3 seats to play for, and Reform have a very good chance of being the 2 seat undercard.
(2) Dalton: I very much doubt it is a 73% Reform gain for first place. Kirkheaton is classic Red/Blue = Reform through the middle territory, the idea that Dalton itself, where so many of the voters are mixed ethnicity, doesn't quite compute. But I guess Labour remain competitive, Green haven't really targeted and it could be won on a very low winning share.
(3) Of HV South, Kirkburton and Denny Dale, Con have more consistently won Kirkburton over the years, so I'd guess at that rather than HV South being the Bluest
(4) I think LD, Green chances are being understated where they are putting up a defence. They will draw in some other left voters.
(5) I think Green progress in Manchester (and perhaps Denton NE) is underplayed, though the by election probably wasn't factored in.
So, I think in terms of bulk results, even without polling shift, Reform may not be sitting quite so pretty this year as last.
Its quite interesting but unsettling that it doesnt understand the Holyrood voting system. Its over bullish on Reform generally imo. They arent doing that well in North Norfolk for example
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
If said party had a history of racism against white people it would be a valid comment. I'm not going to deny what I can see with my own eyes about the Reform agenda and the threat it poses, it is existential for me and my family so I'm not going to censor myself in the interests of political correctness.
The greens are actively supporting, platforming and enabling islamofascism. Their deputy leader celebrates the rapes and murders of Jews on October 7. The same Green guy attends protests in SUPPORT of the evil Iranian regime
Likewise, the Greens want open borders and mass immigration which will destroy Britain as we know it, and they seek to leave us defenceless to boot
Compared to that Reform are about as menacing as the Lib Dems
Yes, agreed. I'm no fan of Reform but I would vote tactically for them to keep the Greens out. But I suspect among the middle aged and middle class I am in a minority, yet. I am on a Whatsapp group with some school friends. About the time of the Runcorn by-election a friend of mine gave a sad little homily telling us about how he had warned his sons about 'snake oil salesmen'. But he just seems to regard the Green win in Gorton as funny; I would regard the Green snakeoil as just as poisonous if not more so. It turns out the girlfriend of another friend was actually doorknocking for the Greens so perhaps he is just being polite.
It bears repeating: what has happened here is that the cuddly "Green" brand has been hijacked by a gruesome mob of far-left tankies who would never remotely get these polling figures without it. I'm only surprised that George Galloway hasn't joined yet.
But, sadly, lots of folk take them at face-value and think the best way of protecting their fields, and saving turtle doves, is by voting "Green". Hence Green MPs in East Anglia and Herefordshire.
You'll have a chance to stop the gruesome mob of far-left tankies by voting for Reform in May, at least on the list.
So tax and big spend, committed to NATO but end Trident, rejoin EU, net zero by 2040, on Gaza, end cooperation with Israel, ceasefire, war crimes investigation. Not sure whether frequent flyer levies, Leveson II, wealth tax on £10m+, rent controls or nationalization of Public utilities is the cause of the McCarthyite hysteria?
Misplaced if you ask me, not even a slightly radical left policy agenda survives the concerted onslaught of the UK's press intact, unlike radical right policies.
In my view - well, yes that's ABO, but our current Right-of-Tory (and bits of Tory too) parties have nothing but fear and loathing to keep their support on side.
So there is a requirement for scary caricatures ina ddition to whatever else they say.
Which is why the Right-of-Tories are all going for a slightly adjusted version of the MAGA "radical left democrats are an alliance of Islamists and Marxists" bollocks, with "Islamists" darkly characterised explicitly or implicitly as "all the Muslims".
The Labour inclination to become the Greens is where they are going wrong.
They really need to chart their own course from the centre.
Shabana Mahmood seems to be the ONLY Labour figure who understands you can be radical from the centre.
God help us! Have you ever thought you might be better off with the Tories or Reform?
I know this question wasn’t aimed at me, but my answer to this question would be twofold: 1) No indication that the Tories have learnt from their history of utter incompetence from 2010 - 2024 and 2) Reform is full of anti-abortion hardliners. Women’s right to reproductive self-determination is a red line for me, regardless of any other policy differences.
Labour’s problem is that their MPs and activists seem to be very attached to the idea that they should be appealing to a set of voters who are never going to vote for them whilst simultaneously ignoring the voters who actually might vote for them.
The white working class are going Reform & the socialists have done a reverse takeover of the Greens. That leaves (hack, spit etc) the centrist liberal voters. Are they enough to edge the party into power if Labour can work out that these are their new voter base? Given the likely four-way split General Election we face, I think it might be, but not if the party continues it’s fruitless attempts to appeal to voters who have already made up their minds.
i) The Americans have already left Nato. If they don't come to the defence of Europe when it's invaded, then Nato is a dead letter. ii) Britain SHOULD wean itself off its reliance on the US. The French did it and so can we.
i) The Americans have already left Nato. If they don't come to the defence of Europe when it's invaded, then Nato is a dead letter. ii) Britain SHOULD wean itself off its reliance on the US. The French did it and so can we.
Europe needs what it never had the balls to tell America it wanted.
A Continent wide Defence Organisation. Include Immigration Border Controls in it protecting all Borders
i) The Americans have already left Nato. If they don't come to the defence of Europe when it's invaded, then Nato is a dead letter. ii) Britain SHOULD wean itself off its reliance on the US. The French did it and so can we.
They French (war excepted) never weaned themselves on to it.
WRT the YouGov polls. If today's is anywhere near right it's fairly epoch making, but not only because of Greens. It continues Reform's record with YG of only being a few points ahead and the other parties bunched. If they are right everything is in play.
The differing methodologies of the poling outfits, and which are most nearly right, is the most interesting question, and maybe insufficiently understood. At least by me.
For now, I stick by the view that Reform are in trouble with a three pronged problem: Closeness to Trump, the Zahawi/Braverman effect, and the mounting evidence of the 'Make Sure Reform Don't Win' alliance.
Reform are at post LE 25 lows with Ashcroft, YG, FoN and Focaldata (22, 23, 26 and 26)and just above with MiC last week. Focaldata are overdue to report so be interesting to see if they dip further or recover. Reform are definitely at 'shields buckling Captain Nigel'
Reform have definitely paid a price for accepting a few too many Tory retreads. Farage probably thought it was worth it to have some semi-plausible potential ministers with experience.
The brand looks distinctly seedy. It could be the new Tory retreads or it could be the feeling that they're now part of the Trump circus which to those just in it for the flags and patriotism is rather off putting
Reform were and are a vehicle for disatisfaction with 'the establishment' and from a broadly anti immigration/right front. Becoming a new version of the establishment its supporters hate is the beginning of the end. It will prompt many of their former non voters to think 'why bother?' again and, perhaps, many converts to wander back 'home'
On the other side. The schism with Lowe means the fanatics have a place to go to gorge on the red meat.
i) The Americans have already left Nato. If they don't come to the defence of Europe when it's invaded, then Nato is a dead letter. ii) Britain SHOULD wean itself off its reliance on the US. The French did it and so can we.
They French (war excepted) never weaned themselves on to it.
& in retrospect that was absolutely the correct policy option.
The Labour inclination to become the Greens is where they are going wrong.
They really need to chart their own course from the centre.
Shabana Mahmood seems to be the ONLY Labour figure who understands you can be radical from the centre.
God help us! Have you ever thought you might be better off with the Tories or Reform?
I know this question wasn’t aimed at me, but my answer to this question would be twofold: 1) No indication that the Tories have learnt from their history of utter incompetence from 2010 - 2024 and 2) Reform is full of anti-abortion hardliners. Women’s right to reproductive self-determination is a red line for me, regardless of any other policy differences.
Labour’s problem is that their MPs and activists seem to be very attached to the idea that they should be appealing to a set of voters who are never going to vote for them whilst simultaneously ignoring the voters who actually might vote for them.
The white working class are going Reform & the socialists have done a reverse takeover of the Greens. That leaves (hack, spit etc) the centrist liberal voters. Are they enough to edge the party into power if Labour can work out that these are their new voter base? Given the likely four-way split General Election we face, I think it might be, but not if the party continues it’s fruitless attempts to appeal to voters who have already made up their minds.
I agree with most of that but the the left above all have to support the downtrodden. It doesn't mean they have to be the downtrodden. In fact they necessarily shouldn't be. The white working class are probably best suited to Reform but the days of the lefty working class firebrands is gone. It feels like Labour and the Lib Dems/Greens have the centre and the Tories are in inevitable decline
WRT the YouGov polls. If today's is anywhere near right it's fairly epoch making, but not only because of Greens. It continues Reform's record with YG of only being a few points ahead and the other parties bunched. If they are right everything is in play.
The differing methodologies of the poling outfits, and which are most nearly right, is the most interesting question, and maybe insufficiently understood. At least by me.
For now, I stick by the view that Reform are in trouble with a three pronged problem: Closeness to Trump, the Zahawi/Braverman effect, and the mounting evidence of the 'Make Sure Reform Don't Win' alliance.
Reform are at post LE 25 lows with Ashcroft, YG, FoN and Focaldata (22, 23, 26 and 26)and just above with MiC last week. Focaldata are overdue to report so be interesting to see if they dip further or recover. Reform are definitely at 'shields buckling Captain Nigel'
Reform have definitely paid a price for accepting a few too many Tory retreads. Farage probably thought it was worth it to have some semi-plausible potential ministers with experience.
The brand looks distinctly seedy. It could be the new Tory retreads or it could be the feeling that they're now part of the Trump circus which to those just in it for the flags and patriotism is rather off putting
Reform were and are a vehicle for disatisfaction with 'the establishment' and from a broadly anti immigration/right front. Becoming a new version of the establishment its supporters hate is the beginning of the end. It will prompt many of their former non voters to think 'why bother?' again and, perhaps, many converts to wander back 'home'
On the other side. The schism with Lowe means the fanatics have a place to go to gorge on the red meat.
Project Griffin Euros 09 proceeds apace in Yarmouth
She's on 16% in the polls, which is the lowest the tories have ever polled. In what way has she improved? She's got better at Scrabble? Knocked 30s off her parkrun time?
People have moved online in their heads. Algorithmic feeds put impressive stories about her on their phone. In an attention-based world she is doing very well. To our new chattering classes the polling is irrelevant.
There’s a decent argument that VI polling should be irrelevant, especially at this stage of parliament. They could put out any old numbers. People discuss and treat them as if they were gospel, when they are more often than not completely unreliable.
Curtice points out - and I was in the room when he said it - that VI mid-term is more a commentary on the performance of the incumbent government rather than a serious declaration of intent. We're simply too far away from the GE for them to be useful.
Cyprus is operating with a U2 taking off this morning, but is poorly defended given it is half an hour away from Israel and closer to Lebanon
Greece and France are sending ships but where are our frigates ?
We have 6 of which only 3 are available, so why hasn't one been deployed to Cyprus
Debbie Haynes, Sky's defence spokesperson, suggests it is because we are not ready for war as the defence chiefs have warned
The pressure on increased defence spending it going to ratchet up
On the question of frigates, they are quite rapidly being built, but the existing ones are fucked,
They are fucked because of smaller orders built more slowly than planned (thanks, Treasury) which means, since the number of taskings are not reduced (thanks, Number 10), the smaller number get worked to death after costing more per unit. Or alternatively they are sold off early to save pennies, and the others are still worked to death.
So when the next lot are also delayed, they current fucked fleet can't be life extended, because they tend to be fucked.
I think in general the Type 26s (City Class) are 3 to 4 year nehind original due date, for reasons.
To my eye, the main villains are David Cameron and George Osborne for their 20% insta cut of the Defence Budget in ~2010, with a supporting performance from Gordon Brown and a layer of Johnsonian fudge and bollocks on top.
On tasking, aiui ( @Malmesbury will advise) we sensibly need about 25-28 escort class ships for the taskings.
What we need is a steady build rate for everything.
The Japanese are quite good at this, for things like submarines. That way you get a production line, with steady improvements.
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
If said party had a history of racism against white people it would be a valid comment. I'm not going to deny what I can see with my own eyes about the Reform agenda and the threat it poses, it is existential for me and my family so I'm not going to censor myself in the interests of political correctness.
The greens are actively supporting, platforming and enabling islamofascism. Their deputy leader celebrates the rapes and murders of Jews on October 7. The same Green guy attends protests in SUPPORT of the evil Iranian regime
Likewise, the Greens want open borders and mass immigration which will destroy Britain as we know it, and they seek to leave us defenceless to boot
Compared to that Reform are about as menacing as the Lib Dems
Yes, agreed. I'm no fan of Reform but I would vote tactically for them to keep the Greens out. But I suspect among the middle aged and middle class I am in a minority, yet. I am on a Whatsapp group with some school friends. About the time of the Runcorn by-election a friend of mine gave a sad little homily telling us about how he had warned his sons about 'snake oil salesmen'. But he just seems to regard the Green win in Gorton as funny; I would regard the Green snakeoil as just as poisonous if not more so. It turns out the girlfriend of another friend was actually doorknocking for the Greens so perhaps he is just being polite.
It bears repeating: what has happened here is that the cuddly "Green" brand has been hijacked by a gruesome mob of far-left tankies who would never remotely get these polling figures without it. I'm only surprised that George Galloway hasn't joined yet.
But, sadly, lots of folk take them at face-value and think the best way of protecting their fields, and saving turtle doves, is by voting "Green". Hence Green MPs in East Anglia and Herefordshire.
You'll have a chance to stop the gruesome mob of far-left tankies by voting for Reform in May, at least on the list.
Well, if Reform not your thing, there's always Alba who, despite the efforts of the leadership not to contest the election (!), are being challenged by a peasants' revolt of members who are determined to enter the fray.
"Lead Highlands & Islands candidate and former MP, Angus Brendan MacNeil, addressed the meeting, praising the resilience of the local office bearers: "It has been a significant challenge to hold a member meeting under these conditions. While a formal invite may not have reached the full membership due to the current restrictions on our systems, I was heartened by the overwhelming response the office bearers managed to secure.
"Last night’s meeting amplified my conviction that this decision belongs to the members. The candidates are ready, the will is there, and the cause of Scotland’s independence is far too important to abandon. Surely it is better for a cause of this magnitude to stand fighting than to die on its knees.”
Well, you don't want to die on your knees, that's for sure.
Truly Pythonesque. Alex would have been proud.
For a party that never even managed to get a councillor elected, Alba sure make a lot of noise. Still you can't keep a good man down. Jumping ship from Alba to SLab may not be entirely wise for an opportunist, but ironically this guy is likely to become an msp.
The Labour inclination to become the Greens is where they are going wrong.
They really need to chart their own course from the centre.
Shabana Mahmood seems to be the ONLY Labour figure who understands you can be radical from the centre.
God help us! Have you ever thought you might be better off with the Tories or Reform?
Have you ever thought you might be better off with Your Party ?
Labour tried a Green style platform in 2019. Where did it get them ?
It got them 10,269,051 votes and just over 32%. Starmer got 9,708,716 votes and just under 34%.
I'm under no illusion that a full-fat left-wing party will win an election. But Starmer's victory was based on nothing but a ming vase and watch the Tories do a remake of the Saw movies. The problem with British politics isn't right-wing nor left-wing, it's that nobody has a set of policies that work nor an overarching view of the problems and how to fix them. And until one does, we'll veer between Reform, Green, and for all I know Nuke Scotland For A Happier Britain party.
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inland_Customs_Line#Great_Hedge
Why?
Because they wouldn't deport a shit load of my friends and colleagues.
That's why.
Then Kemi killed Jenrick and made him a muppet
And Braverman was just cringeworthy and utterly telegraphed.
As Tory adjacent to the extent of considering rejoining the party i'm very hopeful of the vote holding up much better vs reform than last May
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 30% (=)
LAB: 18% (+1)
CON: 18% (-4)
GRN: 15% (+1)
LDM: 13% (-1)
Via
@tweetfreshwater
, 27 Feb - 1 Mar.
Changes w/ 30 Jan - 1 Feb.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jul/30/number-asylum-seekers-housed-former-raf-base-wethersfield-essex-rise
I guess there are enough other ways to tell whether a policy/party is popular or unpopular that it might not change as much as all that. But I can see an argument that the difference would be very large. Without opinion polling (and I assume also without focus groups) politicians might have to go out and meet ordinary voters more often to get a feel for political opinion.
Reform v Not Reform
Govt v Not Govt
Right v Left
Establishment v Insurgent
Centre Left v Outer Left
Centre Right (if you can find one) v Outer Right
NATO v Leave NATO
Failed Powers of Lab/Con v Everyone else including LD
Fairly Sensible v Populist
and, extra to Scotland and Wales
Nationalist v Current UK
Bet accordingly, DYOR.
The Greens here in the UK, un-tested through years of coalition government are the loony fringe of the left. They've elected a genuine loony in Polanski, and their policy basket is a recipe for disaster.
I have a selection of hideous machetes hidden away - which probably shouldn't be seen in public these days - mainly for doing hedgelaying.
If you just cut a hedge every year instead of laying it at least once you end up with gaps at the bottom and you will fail the hedgerow biodiversity assessment. Tut!
But, sadly, lots of folk take them at face-value and think the best way of protecting their fields, and saving turtle doves, is by voting "Green". Hence Green MPs in East Anglia and Herefordshire.
What on earth would the picture be on NEV of (trying to formulate something adjacent to polling and in anticipation of particularly depressed Lab turnout). What would that look like mapped?!?!
Ref 23
Con 20
Lab 19
Green 18
LD 16
NATO isn’t a vibes club, it’s 75 years of plumbing that stops wars starting. It:
Deters by making any attack on one member an attack on all (the whole point is you don’t get to find out if it “would have worked”).
Binds the US into European security, which is basically the central bargain of post-45 Europe.
Standardises kit, comms, intel, logistics, training. That boring interoperability stuff is why allied forces can actually operate together rather than roleplay a coalition.
Projects credibility: forward presence, exercises, air policing, maritime patrols. You can call it “provocation” if you like, but it’s why borders haven’t been redrawn by force across most of Europe for decades.
So sure, debate it. But “move on from NATO” isn’t a debate, it’s a policy. If you’re serious, answer the grown-up questions:
What replaces Article 5 on day one?
Who underwrites the nuclear umbrella?
What’s the transition plan while you rebuild a UK-only or EU-only deterrent?
How much more tax are you raising to pay for it?
If the answer is “we’ll figure it out later”, that’s not brave. That’s just letting Russia, China, and every chancer with a map and a grievance do the figuring out for you.
Greece and France are sending ships but where are our frigates ?
We have 6 of which only 3 are available, so why hasn't one been deployed to Cyprus
Debbie Haynes, Sky's defence spokesperson, suggests it is because we are not ready for war as the defence chiefs have warned
The pressure on increased defence spending it going to ratchet up
They’re not taking it lying down.
All going swimmingly for Trump.
https://x.com/amena__bakr/status/2028762460849864872?s=61
Managing the changing relationship with the USA is an order of magnitude more important than conflict around Iran.
A phrase I heard yesterday seems about right:
Trump thinks that allies are subcontractors who can be stiffed.
(It was probably Ukraine the Latest or Battle Lines.)
We’re in for a whole lot of pain and the July energy price cap will be through the roof !,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czddq40z2zno
So tax and big spend, committed to NATO but end Trident, rejoin EU, net zero by 2040, on Gaza, end cooperation with Israel, ceasefire, war crimes investigation.
Not sure whether frequent flyer levies, Leveson II, wealth tax on £10m+, rent controls or nationalization of Public utilities is the cause of the McCarthyite hysteria?
Misplaced if you ask me, not even a slightly radical left policy agenda survives the concerted onslaught of the UK's press intact, unlike radical right policies.
And we've got the Putinesque "falling debris" BS again.
(Trying to work out which hotel in Dubai Andrew Tate is staying in...)
@maks23.bsky.social
👀 A 4.4 magnitude earthquake struck the city of Gerash, Iran, - USGS.
Someone on here suggested that if the UK repatriates tax exiles their passports should be held and they should stay in the UK for 91 days , becoming liable for UK tax.
I can see, and sympathize with, the argument for leaving a MAGA-US dominated NATO for a European alternative mutual defence organisation but not to be alone.
There’s only one warmonger here. The rest, I think the rest of us want this over ASAP.
No wonder Kemi and Farage are up their backsides.
They'll bleat and lie as any economic data is affected by the war mongers they support.
The sheep and the intellectually challenged will no doubt spout the same lies.
Labour tried a Green style platform in 2019. Where did it get them ?
But I hope she holds her nerve in terms of doing another massive energy bill support scheme. We can't afford it and we, as individuals, need to get more serious about saving for a rainy day and transitioning away from consuming the kind of fuels that are so vulnerable to this kind of shock.
We can argue the rights and wrongs but it will not change where we are now and a middle east in a war with untold consequences
The gulf states are on the verge of ending neutrality in the war against Iran according to the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/02/gulf-states-iran-strikes-response?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
We see similar with the rise of the Greens, which is a direct result of the Tories refusing to tackle generational inequality.
Political parties can ignore long term issues because they are uncomfortable for their parties for 5-10 years easily, sometimes 20 years at a push, but eventually they will see a reaction and find their opponents take action they really dislike rather than are uncomfortable with.
No internal shift within the regime — and no successor to Khamenei — is likely to present surrender terms to the United States.
From Tehran’s perspective, capitulation would mean the collapse of the very ideological foundation of the Islamic Republic. Any leader who emerges from within the system will be bound by the same core principles and strategic red lines.
https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2028728626431111425
https://www.welovestornoway.com/index.php/articles/41654-alba-team-set-to-defy-we-quit-leadership
"Lead Highlands & Islands candidate and former MP, Angus Brendan MacNeil, addressed the meeting, praising the resilience of the local office bearers: "It has been a significant challenge to hold a member meeting under these conditions. While a formal invite may not have reached the full membership due to the current restrictions on our systems, I was heartened by the overwhelming response the office bearers managed to secure.
"Last night’s meeting amplified my conviction that this decision belongs to the members. The candidates are ready, the will is there, and the cause of Scotland’s independence is far too important to abandon. Surely it is better for a cause of this magnitude to stand fighting than to die on its knees.”
Well, you don't want to die on your knees, that's for sure.
Truly Pythonesque. Alex would have been proud.
Unless they've hit a huge underground arsenal
We have no fiscal headroom.
They are fucked because of smaller orders built more slowly than planned (thanks, Treasury) which means, since the number of taskings are not reduced (thanks, Number 10), the smaller number get worked to death after costing more per unit. Or alternatively they are sold off early to save pennies, and the others are still worked to death.
So when the next lot are also delayed, they current fucked fleet can't be life extended, because they tend to be fucked.
I think in general the Type 26s (City Class) are 3 to 4 year nehind original due date, for reasons.
To my eye, the main villains are David Cameron and George Osborne for their 20% insta cut of the Defence Budget in ~2010, with a supporting performance from Gordon Brown and a layer of Johnsonian fudge and bollocks on top.
On tasking, aiui ( @Malmesbury will advise) we sensibly need about 25-28 escort class ships for the taskings.
I'll try not to be comprehensive, but give a few examples:
(1) Holme Valley North: I think the traditional local independent could win outright, but the missing thing here is all-up, 3 seats to play for, and Reform have a very good chance of being the 2 seat undercard.
(2) Dalton: I very much doubt it is a 73% Reform gain for first place. Kirkheaton is classic Red/Blue = Reform through the middle territory, the idea that Dalton itself, where so many of the voters are mixed ethnicity, doesn't quite compute. But I guess Labour remain competitive, Green haven't really targeted and it could be won on a very low winning share.
(3) Of HV South, Kirkburton and Denny Dale, Con have more consistently won Kirkburton over the years, so I'd guess at that rather than HV South being the Bluest
(4) I think LD, Green chances are being understated where they are putting up a defence. They will draw in some other left voters.
(5) I think Green progress in Manchester (and perhaps Denton NE) is underplayed, though the by election probably wasn't factored in.
So, I think in terms of bulk results, even without polling shift, Reform may not be sitting quite so pretty this year as last.
Becoming a new version of the establishment its supporters hate is the beginning of the end.
It will prompt many of their former non voters to think 'why bother?' again and, perhaps, many converts to wander back 'home'
Its over bullish on Reform generally imo. They arent doing that well in North Norfolk for example
So there is a requirement for scary caricatures ina ddition to whatever else they say.
Which is why the Right-of-Tories are all going for a slightly adjusted version of the MAGA "radical left democrats are an alliance of Islamists and Marxists" bollocks, with "Islamists" darkly characterised explicitly or implicitly as "all the Muslims".
Labour’s problem is that their MPs and activists seem to be very attached to the idea that they should be appealing to a set of voters who are never going to vote for them whilst simultaneously ignoring the voters who actually might vote for them.
The white working class are going Reform & the socialists have done a reverse takeover of the Greens. That leaves (hack, spit etc) the centrist liberal voters. Are they enough to edge the party into power if Labour can work out that these are their new voter base? Given the likely four-way split General Election we face, I think it might be, but not if the party continues it’s fruitless attempts to appeal to voters who have already made up their minds.
WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧
@WarMonitor3
·
1h
Overnight there was an insanely huge US airlift operation toward the Middle East...
https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/2028768261861474612
ii) Britain SHOULD wean itself off its reliance on the US. The French did it and so can we.
A Continent wide Defence Organisation. Include Immigration Border Controls in it protecting all Borders
The schism with Lowe means the fanatics have a place to go to gorge on the red meat.
https://x.com/emiratessupport/status/2028779767370313857
The Japanese are quite good at this, for things like submarines. That way you get a production line, with steady improvements.
Still you can't keep a good man down. Jumping ship from Alba to SLab may not be entirely wise for an opportunist, but ironically this guy is likely to become an msp.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/labour-holyrood-list-candidates-revealed-36756728
I'm under no illusion that a full-fat left-wing party will win an election. But Starmer's victory was based on nothing but a ming vase and watch the Tories do a remake of the Saw movies. The problem with British politics isn't right-wing nor left-wing, it's that nobody has a set of policies that work nor an overarching view of the problems and how to fix them. And until one does, we'll veer between Reform, Green, and for all I know Nuke Scotland For A Happier Britain party.