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The Greens are nearly first with YouGov – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,929

    Britain sending a pedalo to Cyprus finally

    Misread that initially. :|
    Hopefully not a sign they're going back to a Savile war.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,221

    Britain sending a pedalo to Cyprus finally

    Hasn't Prince Andrew suffered enough...oh you said pedalo....
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,959

    Selebian said:

    FPT:

    IanB2 said:

    It's just a shame that the outbreak of World War Three rather overshadowed this year's annual Isle of Wight hedgelaying competition.

    I can't decide whether this is refers to planting hedges - does one 'lay' them? - laying in hedges or getting laid in hedges. Or some kind of unspeakable conduct with a hedge :open_mouth: We need more information!
    Shocking lack of knowledge! Hedge-laying is an ancient art that transforms hedges into proper impenetrable field barriers. Stems are cut almost through then laid horizontally and woven. Usually the hedges are stacked into shape too. The resulting new growth just makes the hedges thicker and stronger.

    The decline of hedge laying is why most modern field edges have patchy scrubby hedges plants, rather than proper barriers.
    I lay corrected!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,843
    Roger said:

    The Labour inclination to become the Greens is where they are going wrong.

    They really need to chart their own course from the centre.

    Shabana Mahmood seems to be the ONLY Labour figure who understands you can be radical from the centre.

    God help us! Have you ever thought you might be better off with the Tories or Reform?
    Raus, raus!


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,929
    ydoethur said:

    Britain sending a pedalo to Cyprus finally

    Misread that initially. :|
    Hopefully not a sign they're going back to a Savile war.
    The Windsor change are blowing through this continent.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,398
    edited 11:37AM
    Phil said:

    viewcode said:

    Reform ARE less dangerous than the Greens.

    The Greens want to leave NATO!

    The Greens do not want to leave NATO.

    Just like Finland and Sweden they changed their mind after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
    “ Exclusive: Green party leader advocates leaving Nato and says Britain should wean itself off its reliance on the US”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jan/20/uk-should-consider-expelling-us-forces-from-british-bases-says-zack-polanski
    i) The Americans have already left Nato. If they don't come to the defence of Europe when it's invaded, then Nato is a dead letter.
    ii) Britain SHOULD wean itself off its reliance on the US. The French did it and so can we.
    They French (war excepted) never weaned themselves on to it.
    & in retrospect that was absolutely the correct policy option.
    I'm attracted by some strengths of the French model, but their "spend efficiency" (ie Military Purchasing Power Parity) is still about 1/3 more 'value for money' than ours - UK 0.95, Fr 0.65 vs the USA.

    As I see it we have not escaped the "gold plating" question enough - the Navy have to a decent extent (destroyers / frigates), but not the Army or RAF.

    And we have not decided what we do not need. The French do a Hi Lo mix far more effectively.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,144

    Roger said:

    The Labour inclination to become the Greens is where they are going wrong.

    They really need to chart their own course from the centre.

    Shabana Mahmood seems to be the ONLY Labour figure who understands you can be radical from the centre.

    God help us! Have you ever thought you might be better off with the Tories or Reform?
    Raus, raus!


    As soon as I saw that picture of Mahmood I was it looks very 1940s Germany !



  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,843
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Britain sending a pedalo to Cyprus finally

    Misread that initially. :|
    Hopefully not a sign they're going back to a Savile war.
    The Windsor change are blowing through this continent.
    It's them being blown off that I'm worried about.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 16,801
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Britain sending a pedalo to Cyprus finally

    Misread that initially. :|
    Hopefully not a sign they're going back to a Savile war.
    The Windsor change are blowing through this continent.
    There will be a statue to Bomber Rolf Harris when this is all over.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 11,019
    edited 11:38AM
    U-turn on the way. Times reporting that HMS Duncan will now be sent to Cyprus.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,221

    U-turn on the way. Times reporting that HMS Duncan will now be sent to Cyprus.

    A u-turn a day keeps the Greens away?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,578

    U-turn on the way. Times reporting that HMS Duncan will now be sent to Cyprus.

    That it wasn't in that Gulf or Med anyway is a genuine scandal. 1000x currygate.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,586

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    biggles said:

    biggles said:

    If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.

    Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
    What a disgraceful thing to post.

    Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
    Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
    If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
    If said party had a history of racism against white people it would be a valid comment. I'm not going to deny what I can see with my own eyes about the Reform agenda and the threat it poses, it is existential for me and my family so I'm not going to censor myself in the interests of political correctness.
    The greens are actively supporting, platforming and enabling islamofascism. Their deputy leader celebrates the rapes and murders of Jews on October 7. The same Green guy attends protests in SUPPORT of the evil Iranian regime

    Likewise, the Greens want open borders and mass immigration which will destroy Britain as we know it, and they seek to leave us defenceless to boot

    Compared to that Reform are about as menacing as the Lib Dems
    Yes, agreed. I'm no fan of Reform but I would vote tactically for them to keep the Greens out. But I suspect among the middle aged and middle class I am in a minority, yet.
    I am on a Whatsapp group with some school friends. About the time of the Runcorn by-election a friend of mine gave a sad little homily telling us about how he had warned his sons about 'snake oil salesmen'. But he just seems to regard the Green win in Gorton as funny; I would regard the Green snakeoil as just as poisonous if not more so. It turns out the girlfriend of another friend was actually doorknocking for the Greens so perhaps he is just being polite.

    It bears repeating: what has happened here is that the cuddly "Green" brand has been hijacked by a gruesome mob of far-left tankies who would never remotely get these polling figures without it. I'm only surprised that George Galloway hasn't joined yet.

    But, sadly, lots of folk take them at face-value and think the best way of protecting their fields, and saving turtle doves, is by voting "Green". Hence Green MPs in East Anglia and Herefordshire.

    You'll have a chance to stop the gruesome mob of far-left tankies by voting for Reform in May, at least on the list.
    Well, if Reform not your thing, there's always Alba who, despite the efforts of the leadership not to contest the election (!), are being challenged by a peasants' revolt of members who are determined to enter the fray.

    https://www.welovestornoway.com/index.php/articles/41654-alba-team-set-to-defy-we-quit-leadership

    "Lead Highlands & Islands candidate and former MP, Angus Brendan MacNeil, addressed the meeting, praising the resilience of the local office bearers: "It has been a significant challenge to hold a member meeting under these conditions. While a formal invite may not have reached the full membership due to the current restrictions on our systems, I was heartened by the overwhelming response the office bearers managed to secure.

    "Last night’s meeting amplified my conviction that this decision belongs to the members. The candidates are ready, the will is there, and the cause of Scotland’s independence is far too important to abandon. Surely it is better for a cause of this magnitude to stand fighting than to die on its knees.”

    Well, you don't want to die on your knees, that's for sure.

    Truly Pythonesque. Alex would have been proud.
    For a party that never even managed to get a councillor elected, Alba sure make a lot of noise.
    Still you can't keep a good man down. Jumping ship from Alba to SLab may not be entirely wise for an opportunist, but ironically this guy is likely to become an msp.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/labour-holyrood-list-candidates-revealed-36756728
    Wow. Selected above two sitting MSPs too. Mr Ahmad must possess a somewhat transactional approach to his political career. Not going to end well, I suspect.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,596
    Ratters said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    Israel has used the cover of the Iran War to launch a ground invasion of “strategic parts of Lebanon”.

    All part of the plan.

    https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3mg5fmb2evc2p

    Again it’s the other way around. Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel yesterday.
    I did think that was a particularly suicidal move by Hezbollah. Don't need to be a genius to work out Israel's response.
    The sections of Lebanon which are not Hezbollah must truly despise them, since they love to provoke Israel which inevitably hits them too.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,221
    edited 11:43AM
    kle4 said:

    Ratters said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    Israel has used the cover of the Iran War to launch a ground invasion of “strategic parts of Lebanon”.

    All part of the plan.

    https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3mg5fmb2evc2p

    Again it’s the other way around. Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel yesterday.
    I did think that was a particularly suicidal move by Hezbollah. Don't need to be a genius to work out Israel's response.
    The sections of Lebanon which are not Hezbollah must truly despise them, since they love to provoke Israel which inevitably hits them too.
    A bit like Iran, back in the day, Lebanon was a cool place for all sorts of people to hang out, known as the Paris of the Middle East.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,962

    Britain sending a pedalo to Cyprus finally

    Starmer is sending his top brass

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,163

    Britain sending a pedalo to Cyprus finally

    Hasn't Prince Andrew suffered enough...oh you said pedalo....
    “Andy, you remember flying the helicopter with the missile decoy on it? We are recalling you to duty…”
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,646
    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Roger said:

    The Labour inclination to become the Greens is where they are going wrong.

    They really need to chart their own course from the centre.

    Shabana Mahmood seems to be the ONLY Labour figure who understands you can be radical from the centre.

    God help us! Have you ever thought you might be better off with the Tories or Reform?
    Have you ever thought you might be better off with Your Party ?

    Labour tried a Green style platform in 2019. Where did it get them ?
    It got them 10,269,051 votes and just over 32%. Starmer got 9,708,716 votes and just under 34%.

    I'm under no illusion that a full-fat left-wing party will win an election. But Starmer's victory was based on nothing but a ming vase and watch the Tories do a remake of the Saw movies. The problem with British politics isn't right-wing nor left-wing, it's that nobody has a set of policies that work nor an overarching view of the problems and how to fix them. And until one does, we'll veer between Reform, Green, and for all I know Nuke Scotland For A Happier Britain party.
    It got them a battering at the polls.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,461
    One for the Chagos PBers:


    David Frum
    @davidfrum

    One good that may come of this war: finishing off Britain's crazy treaty to surrender the most important US-UK air and naval base in the Indian Ocean. My latest in @TheAtlantic

    https://x.com/davidfrum/status/2028611293431693502
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,646
    edited 11:52AM

    Roger said:

    The Labour inclination to become the Greens is where they are going wrong.

    They really need to chart their own course from the centre.

    Shabana Mahmood seems to be the ONLY Labour figure who understands you can be radical from the centre.

    God help us! Have you ever thought you might be better off with the Tories or Reform?
    Raus, raus!


    That Gardner nutcase is a part of the Stop Trump coalition who plagued Vance when he was here and is a pro open door migration fanatic now attacking a centrist woman of colour for imposing benign
    Migration policies. No wonder you’re impressed with her.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,646

    Britain sending a pedalo to Cyprus finally

    Starmer is sending his top brass

    image
    She’s too busy with a paid speaking gig at a property expo
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,221
    edited 11:54AM
    Taz said:

    Britain sending a pedalo to Cyprus finally

    Starmer is sending his top brass

    image
    She’s too busy with a paid speaking gig at a property expo
    Fascinated to know what expert insight she will bring to property industry? As her time as a minister was a failure, so personal experience?...well what you got to do is become a politician, they pay you for a second home don't you know, and then when you want to upgrade to a nicer gaff, raid your sons disability trust for the deposit on a home you can't really afford without paying the correct taxes. And if you get caught, best thing to do lie about what lawyers have said or done, as they never keep any records. Something like that?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,259
    MattW said:

    Cyprus is operating with a U2 taking off this morning, but is poorly defended given it is half an hour away from Israel and closer to Lebanon

    Greece and France are sending ships but where are our frigates ?

    We have 6 of which only 3 are available, so why hasn't one been deployed to Cyprus

    Debbie Haynes, Sky's defence spokesperson, suggests it is because we are not ready for war as the defence chiefs have warned

    The pressure on increased defence spending it going to ratchet up

    On the question of frigates, they are quite rapidly being built, but the existing ones are fucked,

    They are fucked because of smaller orders built more slowly than planned (thanks, Treasury) which means, since the number of taskings are not reduced (thanks, Number 10), the smaller number get worked to death after costing more per unit. Or alternatively they are sold off early to save pennies, and the others are still worked to death.

    So when the next lot are also delayed, they current fucked fleet can't be life extended, because they tend to be fucked.

    I think in general the Type 26s (City Class) are 3 to 4 year nehind original due date, for reasons.

    To my eye, the main villains are David Cameron and George Osborne for their 20% insta cut of the Defence Budget in ~2010, with a supporting performance from Gordon Brown and a layer of Johnsonian fudge and bollocks on top.

    On tasking, aiui ( @Malmesbury will advise) we sensibly need about 25-28 escort class ships for the taskings.
    The tasks follow from the available ships, not the obverse. Always have done and always will.

    The crews, engineering support and facilities not the hulls are the limiting factors so counting ships misses the point.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,647
    @Pro_Rata I think the Scotland numbers are absurd, and individual ward projections will often be wrong.

    In broad terms, though, the projections seem credible.

    It’s going to be a terrrrrible night for Labour and Conservatives.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,221
    edited 11:59AM
    "which looked into allegations including of harm to patients"

    Expert witness into harm of patients is being investigated for harm to patients. Well at least he sounds like he might be an qualified expert.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,162
    Sweeney74 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Reform ARE less dangerous than the Greens.

    The Greens want to leave NATO!

    The Greens do not want to leave NATO.
    We (the members) definitely do and if we're in government we'll find a way to do it.
    when someone tells you who/what they are, believe them.

    The Greens here in the UK, un-tested through years of coalition government are the loony fringe of the left. They've elected a genuine loony in Polanski, and their policy basket is a recipe for disaster.
    I think Zack is a chancer, not a loony
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,221
    edited 12:01PM

    Sweeney74 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Reform ARE less dangerous than the Greens.

    The Greens want to leave NATO!

    The Greens do not want to leave NATO.
    We (the members) definitely do and if we're in government we'll find a way to do it.
    when someone tells you who/what they are, believe them.

    The Greens here in the UK, un-tested through years of coalition government are the loony fringe of the left. They've elected a genuine loony in Polanski, and their policy basket is a recipe for disaster.
    I think Zack is a chancer, not a loony
    What makes you think that about a bloke who sold woowoo techniques to make women get larger boobies....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,163

    "which looked into allegations including of harm to patients"

    Expert witness into harm of patients is being investigated for harm to patients. Well at least he sounds like he might be an qualified expert.
    “ While the GMC conducted its investigation, and during some of the period when Hindmarsh gave evidence, a medical tribunal ordered severe restrictions on his work, saying that he “may pose a real risk” to members of the public. The tribunal also considered the allegations about Hindmarsh “may have the potential to impact on his ability to act as an expert witness”.

    Hmmmm
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,646

    Taz said:

    Britain sending a pedalo to Cyprus finally

    Starmer is sending his top brass

    image
    She’s too busy with a paid speaking gig at a property expo
    Fascinated to know what expert insight she will bring to property industry? As her time as a minister was a failure, so personal experience?...well what you got to do is become a politician, they pay you for a second home don't you know, and then when you want to upgrade to a nicer gaff, raid your sons disability trust for the deposit on a home you can't really afford without paying the correct taxes. And if you get caught, best thing to do lie about what lawyers have said or done, as they never keep any records. Something like that?
    God knows. She’s barely coherent most of the time

    https://propertyindustryeye.com/propertymark-defends-angela-rayner-as-speaker-amid-backlash/
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,732
    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    By general acclaim Kemi has improved

    She's on 16% in the polls, which is the lowest the tories have ever polled. In what way has she improved? She's got better at Scrabble? Knocked 30s off her parkrun time?
    People have moved online in their heads. Algorithmic feeds put impressive stories about her on their phone. In an attention-based world she is doing very well. To our new chattering classes the polling is irrelevant.
    There’s a decent argument that VI polling should be irrelevant, especially at this stage of parliament. They could put out any old numbers. People discuss and treat them as if they were gospel, when they are more often than not completely unreliable.
    Curtice points out - and I was in the room when he said it - that VI mid-term is more a commentary on the performance of the incumbent government rather than a serious declaration of intent. We're simply too far away from the GE for them to be useful.
    Don't know exactly what Curtice said, and I don't ever disagree with him, but there is more to say. In mid term of a Labour government, polling of Lab 16, Tory 55 tells you something completely different about the probabilities for the next GE than (as YouGov today) Lab 16, Tory 16.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,398
    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    Cyprus is operating with a U2 taking off this morning, but is poorly defended given it is half an hour away from Israel and closer to Lebanon

    Greece and France are sending ships but where are our frigates ?

    We have 6 of which only 3 are available, so why hasn't one been deployed to Cyprus

    Debbie Haynes, Sky's defence spokesperson, suggests it is because we are not ready for war as the defence chiefs have warned

    The pressure on increased defence spending it going to ratchet up

    On the question of frigates, they are quite rapidly being built, but the existing ones are fucked,

    They are fucked because of smaller orders built more slowly than planned (thanks, Treasury) which means, since the number of taskings are not reduced (thanks, Number 10), the smaller number get worked to death after costing more per unit. Or alternatively they are sold off early to save pennies, and the others are still worked to death.

    So when the next lot are also delayed, they current fucked fleet can't be life extended, because they tend to be fucked.

    I think in general the Type 26s (City Class) are 3 to 4 year nehind original due date, for reasons.

    To my eye, the main villains are David Cameron and George Osborne for their 20% insta cut of the Defence Budget in ~2010, with a supporting performance from Gordon Brown and a layer of Johnsonian fudge and bollocks on top.

    On tasking, aiui ( @Malmesbury will advise) we sensibly need about 25-28 escort class ships for the taskings.
    The tasks follow from the available ships, not the obverse. Always have done and always will.

    The crews, engineering support and facilities not the hulls are the limiting factors so counting ships misses the point.
    Do the politicians accept that the list of desired taskings flows from available ships ?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,094
    Sean_F said:

    @Pro_Rata I think the Scotland numbers are absurd, and individual ward projections will often be wrong.

    In broad terms, though, the projections seem credible.

    It’s going to be a terrrrrible night for Labour and Conservatives.

    Much worse for Labour in raw numbers.
    They have the Tory problem of 2025 of defending the majority of wards
    The negatuve Tory stories will be Wales, Scotland and some of the counties
    Labour are getting humped everywhere and will lose four figures of councillors so their collapse will be the story
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,140
    Five parties within 9 points of each other - and the one with the highest rating is also the most disliked. FPTP is going to be more of a lottery than usual.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,646

    Five parties within 9 points of each other - and the one with the highest rating is also the most disliked. FPTP is going to be more of a lottery than usual.

    So we’re all ignoring the poll with an 11% Reform lead as it’s not suiting the narrative ?

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,094
    Reform were gaining support running in to LE 25 and over achieved expectations
    Reform are losing support running in to LE 26, i expect them to undershoot expectations
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,163
    MattW said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    Cyprus is operating with a U2 taking off this morning, but is poorly defended given it is half an hour away from Israel and closer to Lebanon

    Greece and France are sending ships but where are our frigates ?

    We have 6 of which only 3 are available, so why hasn't one been deployed to Cyprus

    Debbie Haynes, Sky's defence spokesperson, suggests it is because we are not ready for war as the defence chiefs have warned

    The pressure on increased defence spending it going to ratchet up

    On the question of frigates, they are quite rapidly being built, but the existing ones are fucked,

    They are fucked because of smaller orders built more slowly than planned (thanks, Treasury) which means, since the number of taskings are not reduced (thanks, Number 10), the smaller number get worked to death after costing more per unit. Or alternatively they are sold off early to save pennies, and the others are still worked to death.

    So when the next lot are also delayed, they current fucked fleet can't be life extended, because they tend to be fucked.

    I think in general the Type 26s (City Class) are 3 to 4 year nehind original due date, for reasons.

    To my eye, the main villains are David Cameron and George Osborne for their 20% insta cut of the Defence Budget in ~2010, with a supporting performance from Gordon Brown and a layer of Johnsonian fudge and bollocks on top.

    On tasking, aiui ( @Malmesbury will advise) we sensibly need about 25-28 escort class ships for the taskings.
    The tasks follow from the available ships, not the obverse. Always have done and always will.

    The crews, engineering support and facilities not the hulls are the limiting factors so counting ships misses the point.
    Do the politicians accept that the list of desired taskings flows from available ships ?
    Well, the Naval Defence Act was a case of building ships to match tasking.

    Naval Defence Act 1889

    Not sure of much since.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,259
    edited 12:14PM
    MattW said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    Cyprus is operating with a U2 taking off this morning, but is poorly defended given it is half an hour away from Israel and closer to Lebanon

    Greece and France are sending ships but where are our frigates ?

    We have 6 of which only 3 are available, so why hasn't one been deployed to Cyprus

    Debbie Haynes, Sky's defence spokesperson, suggests it is because we are not ready for war as the defence chiefs have warned

    The pressure on increased defence spending it going to ratchet up

    On the question of frigates, they are quite rapidly being built, but the existing ones are fucked,

    They are fucked because of smaller orders built more slowly than planned (thanks, Treasury) which means, since the number of taskings are not reduced (thanks, Number 10), the smaller number get worked to death after costing more per unit. Or alternatively they are sold off early to save pennies, and the others are still worked to death.

    So when the next lot are also delayed, they current fucked fleet can't be life extended, because they tend to be fucked.

    I think in general the Type 26s (City Class) are 3 to 4 year nehind original due date, for reasons.

    To my eye, the main villains are David Cameron and George Osborne for their 20% insta cut of the Defence Budget in ~2010, with a supporting performance from Gordon Brown and a layer of Johnsonian fudge and bollocks on top.

    On tasking, aiui ( @Malmesbury will advise) we sensibly need about 25-28 escort class ships for the taskings.
    The tasks follow from the available ships, not the obverse. Always have done and always will.

    The crews, engineering support and facilities not the hulls are the limiting factors so counting ships misses the point.
    Do the politicians accept that the list of desired taskings flows from available ships ?
    They have no fucking choice. The tasks will be defined and prioritised according to what's available. If there's no ship available to do something then it will miraculously and suddenly become far less important.

    It's the same stripe of cynical pragmatism that conveniently defined and declared FOC for Carrier Power Protection as whatever force they could generate for a 15 minute photo op on the PoW cruise.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,409
    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Roger said:

    The Labour inclination to become the Greens is where they are going wrong.

    They really need to chart their own course from the centre.

    Shabana Mahmood seems to be the ONLY Labour figure who understands you can be radical from the centre.

    God help us! Have you ever thought you might be better off with the Tories or Reform?
    Have you ever thought you might be better off with Your Party ?

    Labour tried a Green style platform in 2019. Where did it get them ?
    It got them 10,269,051 votes and just over 32%. Starmer got 9,708,716 votes and just under 34%.

    I'm under no illusion that a full-fat left-wing party will win an election. But Starmer's victory was based on nothing but a ming vase and watch the Tories do a remake of the Saw movies. The problem with British politics isn't right-wing nor left-wing, it's that nobody has a set of policies that work nor an overarching view of the problems and how to fix them. And until one does, we'll veer between Reform, Green, and for all I know Nuke Scotland For A Happier Britain party.
    It got them a battering at the polls.
    That 2019 GE was decided almost entirely on Brexit and anti-Corbyn sentiment, the other policies were irrelevant.

    A green policy platform is sensible, it is where the UK will end up willingly or otherwise, net zero, electrification, renewables, some (eye-wateringly expensive) nuclear and maybe better insulated housing.

    The Greens tuition fee abolition won't happen but even the Conservatives are campaigning on reducing the burden on graduates of their (and the LDs) tuition fee scheme.

    Even "leaving NATO" might happen if Trump destroys it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,647
    Taz said:

    Five parties within 9 points of each other - and the one with the highest rating is also the most disliked. FPTP is going to be more of a lottery than usual.

    So we’re all ignoring the poll with an 11% Reform lead as it’s not suiting the narrative ?

    Opinium, as well. Freshwater tends to skew right, and Yougov skews left, but Opinium has no obvious lean.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,094
    Taz said:

    Five parties within 9 points of each other - and the one with the highest rating is also the most disliked. FPTP is going to be more of a lottery than usual.

    So we’re all ignoring the poll with an 11% Reform lead as it’s not suiting the narrative ?

    Thats the usual way!

    The Greens have hever polled over 15% with 11 of the 14 regular VI pollsters. Once they do, ill believe in the 'second green surge'
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,732
    The devil is in the detail. The story mentions, without emphasis, that the defence was informed, and doesn't say whether the judge did not allow the evidence to be adduced or if there was an application:

    Nevertheless, the tribunal permitted him to continue giving expert evidence for the prosecution of Letby. The Crown Prosecution Service told the defence it would oppose any attempt to inform the jury of the GMC investigation, on the basis that the allegations had not reached a final adjudication.


    There is an apparent error also: the tribunal (the GMC) has no power to compel or forbid any witness in a criminal trial. That's a matter for the judge.

    Still an interesting story. There is no choice but to await the CCRC. Finally, a reminder that the original defence team can't explain itself, defend itself or disclose stuff without the client's permission as Letby has privilege. She appears (I don't know of course) not to have waived it. This whole discussion takes place with the original defence silenced.

    Wait and see.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,140
    Taz said:

    Five parties within 9 points of each other - and the one with the highest rating is also the most disliked. FPTP is going to be more of a lottery than usual.

    So we’re all ignoring the poll with an 11% Reform lead as it’s not suiting the narrative ?

    No we're talking about the poll in the header of this thread.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,617

    Sean_F said:

    @Pro_Rata I think the Scotland numbers are absurd, and individual ward projections will often be wrong.

    In broad terms, though, the projections seem credible.

    It’s going to be a terrrrrible night for Labour and Conservatives.

    Much worse for Labour in raw numbers.
    They have the Tory problem of 2025 of defending the majority of wards
    The negatuve Tory stories will be Wales, Scotland and some of the counties
    Labour are getting humped everywhere and will lose four figures of councillors so their collapse will be the story
    Green strength creates a real pincer movement on them, and the Reform lead over themselves is still hefty. So yes they're banjaxed.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,094
    Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    Five parties within 9 points of each other - and the one with the highest rating is also the most disliked. FPTP is going to be more of a lottery than usual.

    So we’re all ignoring the poll with an 11% Reform lead as it’s not suiting the narrative ?

    Opinium, as well. Freshwater tends to skew right, and Yougov skews left, but Opinium has no obvious lean.
    Opinium has tended to skew Ref and Lab at the expense of Con and Green
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,843
    Taz said:

    Roger said:

    The Labour inclination to become the Greens is where they are going wrong.

    They really need to chart their own course from the centre.

    Shabana Mahmood seems to be the ONLY Labour figure who understands you can be radical from the centre.

    God help us! Have you ever thought you might be better off with the Tories or Reform?
    Raus, raus!


    That Gardner nutcase is a part of the Stop Trump coalition who plagued Vance when he was here and is a pro open door migration fanatic now attacking a centrist woman of colour for imposing benign
    Migration policies. No wonder you’re impressed with her.
    Shabs, Shabs, you're our last, best hope to stop the right of centrist das voting Reform! The party members don't like you and voters aren't keen on people who flip their principles for a seat at cabinet, but we can't think of anything else so you'll have to do.

  • TazTaz Posts: 25,646
    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Roger said:

    The Labour inclination to become the Greens is where they are going wrong.

    They really need to chart their own course from the centre.

    Shabana Mahmood seems to be the ONLY Labour figure who understands you can be radical from the centre.

    God help us! Have you ever thought you might be better off with the Tories or Reform?
    Have you ever thought you might be better off with Your Party ?

    Labour tried a Green style platform in 2019. Where did it get them ?
    It got them 10,269,051 votes and just over 32%. Starmer got 9,708,716 votes and just under 34%.

    I'm under no illusion that a full-fat left-wing party will win an election. But Starmer's victory was based on nothing but a ming vase and watch the Tories do a remake of the Saw movies. The problem with British politics isn't right-wing nor left-wing, it's that nobody has a set of policies that work nor an overarching view of the problems and how to fix them. And until one does, we'll veer between Reform, Green, and for all I know Nuke Scotland For A Happier Britain party.
    It got them a battering at the polls.
    That 2019 GE was decided almost entirely on Brexit and anti-Corbyn sentiment, the other policies were irrelevant.

    A green policy platform is sensible, it is where the UK will end up willingly or otherwise, net zero, electrification, renewables, some (eye-wateringly expensive) nuclear and maybe better insulated housing.

    The Greens tuition fee abolition won't happen but even the Conservatives are campaigning on reducing the burden on graduates of their (and the LDs) tuition fee scheme.

    Even "leaving NATO" might happen if Trump destroys it.
    Yes. MMT, wealth tax now, end landlords, rent freeze, do deals with cartels etc etc

    All eminently sensible 🙄
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,409
    Taz said:

    Five parties within 9 points of each other - and the one with the highest rating is also the most disliked. FPTP is going to be more of a lottery than usual.

    So we’re all ignoring the poll with an 11% Reform lead as it’s not suiting the narrative ?

    Fair point, there are 2 with a 12% lead, Opinium and Freshwater Strategy

    Though irrelevant to the topic, TSE's tip and bet :)
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,094
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    @Pro_Rata I think the Scotland numbers are absurd, and individual ward projections will often be wrong.

    In broad terms, though, the projections seem credible.

    It’s going to be a terrrrrible night for Labour and Conservatives.

    Much worse for Labour in raw numbers.
    They have the Tory problem of 2025 of defending the majority of wards
    The negatuve Tory stories will be Wales, Scotland and some of the counties
    Labour are getting humped everywhere and will lose four figures of councillors so their collapse will be the story
    Green strength creates a real pincer movement on them, and the Reform lead over themselves is still hefty. So yes they're banjaxed.
    Im anticipating the biggest 'council' story being the complete disintegration of Lab in the North and Midlands. London less so.
    The picture in the South will be very mixed but the LDs stand to get a results boost
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,646

    Taz said:

    Five parties within 9 points of each other - and the one with the highest rating is also the most disliked. FPTP is going to be more of a lottery than usual.

    So we’re all ignoring the poll with an 11% Reform lead as it’s not suiting the narrative ?

    No we're talking about the poll in the header of this thread.
    All threads follow a life of their own. I’d suggest the other poll worthy of bringing into the discussion as it’s nearer to where other polls are

    I suspect the centrists see what they want to get away from Reform
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,461

    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam
    ·
    28m
    This is really bad now - UK natural gas a month ahead just hit 170p a therm - it’s more than DOUBLED in a day and is now approaching the level (which was sustained for months) which caused problems in 2022… needed the energy price guarantee etc…
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,409
    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Roger said:

    The Labour inclination to become the Greens is where they are going wrong.

    They really need to chart their own course from the centre.

    Shabana Mahmood seems to be the ONLY Labour figure who understands you can be radical from the centre.

    God help us! Have you ever thought you might be better off with the Tories or Reform?
    Have you ever thought you might be better off with Your Party ?

    Labour tried a Green style platform in 2019. Where did it get them ?
    It got them 10,269,051 votes and just over 32%. Starmer got 9,708,716 votes and just under 34%.

    I'm under no illusion that a full-fat left-wing party will win an election. But Starmer's victory was based on nothing but a ming vase and watch the Tories do a remake of the Saw movies. The problem with British politics isn't right-wing nor left-wing, it's that nobody has a set of policies that work nor an overarching view of the problems and how to fix them. And until one does, we'll veer between Reform, Green, and for all I know Nuke Scotland For A Happier Britain party.
    It got them a battering at the polls.
    That 2019 GE was decided almost entirely on Brexit and anti-Corbyn sentiment, the other policies were irrelevant.

    A green policy platform is sensible, it is where the UK will end up willingly or otherwise, net zero, electrification, renewables, some (eye-wateringly expensive) nuclear and maybe better insulated housing.

    The Greens tuition fee abolition won't happen but even the Conservatives are campaigning on reducing the burden on graduates of their (and the LDs) tuition fee scheme.

    Even "leaving NATO" might happen if Trump destroys it.
    Yes. MMT, wealth tax now, end landlords, rent freeze, do deals with cartels etc etc

    All eminently sensible 🙄
    Small "g", which was what Labour ran on in 2019
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,094


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam
    ·
    28m
    This is really bad now - UK natural gas a month ahead just hit 170p a therm - it’s more than DOUBLED in a day and is now approaching the level (which was sustained for months) which caused problems in 2022… needed the energy price guarantee etc…

    The EPG that caused the gilt markets to implode
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,646


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam
    ·
    28m
    This is really bad now - UK natural gas a month ahead just hit 170p a therm - it’s more than DOUBLED in a day and is now approaching the level (which was sustained for months) which caused problems in 2022… needed the energy price guarantee etc…

    But, but, Qatar provides only 2% of our gas !!!

    Still a price worth paying according to Bart.

    Dig deep everyone. You’re paying to keep Bibi out of stir.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,786
    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Roger said:

    The Labour inclination to become the Greens is where they are going wrong.

    They really need to chart their own course from the centre.

    Shabana Mahmood seems to be the ONLY Labour figure who understands you can be radical from the centre.

    God help us! Have you ever thought you might be better off with the Tories or Reform?
    Have you ever thought you might be better off with Your Party ?

    Labour tried a Green style platform in 2019. Where did it get them ?
    It got them 10,269,051 votes and just over 32%. Starmer got 9,708,716 votes and just under 34%.

    I'm under no illusion that a full-fat left-wing party will win an election. But Starmer's victory was based on nothing but a ming vase and watch the Tories do a remake of the Saw movies. The problem with British politics isn't right-wing nor left-wing, it's that nobody has a set of policies that work nor an overarching view of the problems and how to fix them. And until one does, we'll veer between Reform, Green, and for all I know Nuke Scotland For A Happier Britain party.
    It got them a battering at the polls.
    That 2019 GE was decided almost entirely on Brexit and anti-Corbyn sentiment, the other policies were irrelevant.

    A green policy platform is sensible, it is where the UK will end up willingly or otherwise, net zero, electrification, renewables, some (eye-wateringly expensive) nuclear and maybe better insulated housing.

    The Greens tuition fee abolition won't happen but even the Conservatives are campaigning on reducing the burden on graduates of their (and the LDs) tuition fee scheme.

    Even "leaving NATO" might happen if Trump destroys it.
    Yes. MMT, wealth tax now, end landlords, rent freeze, do deals with cartels etc etc

    All eminently sensible 🙄
    Reaction to:

    QE massively boosting private assets at the expense of workers
    Landlords pandered to for 20 years to win votes including above plus ever expanding housing benefit subsidies and tight planning control
    Drugs policies persistently failing over many decades

    If mainstream parties refuse to address long standing issues this is what we end up with.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,962


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam
    ·
    28m
    This is really bad now - UK natural gas a month ahead just hit 170p a therm - it’s more than DOUBLED in a day and is now approaching the level (which was sustained for months) which caused problems in 2022… needed the energy price guarantee etc…

    Perfect conditions for Labour’s Truss to take over.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,646
    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Roger said:

    The Labour inclination to become the Greens is where they are going wrong.

    They really need to chart their own course from the centre.

    Shabana Mahmood seems to be the ONLY Labour figure who understands you can be radical from the centre.

    God help us! Have you ever thought you might be better off with the Tories or Reform?
    Have you ever thought you might be better off with Your Party ?

    Labour tried a Green style platform in 2019. Where did it get them ?
    It got them 10,269,051 votes and just over 32%. Starmer got 9,708,716 votes and just under 34%.

    I'm under no illusion that a full-fat left-wing party will win an election. But Starmer's victory was based on nothing but a ming vase and watch the Tories do a remake of the Saw movies. The problem with British politics isn't right-wing nor left-wing, it's that nobody has a set of policies that work nor an overarching view of the problems and how to fix them. And until one does, we'll veer between Reform, Green, and for all I know Nuke Scotland For A Happier Britain party.
    It got them a battering at the polls.
    That 2019 GE was decided almost entirely on Brexit and anti-Corbyn sentiment, the other policies were irrelevant.

    A green policy platform is sensible, it is where the UK will end up willingly or otherwise, net zero, electrification, renewables, some (eye-wateringly expensive) nuclear and maybe better insulated housing.

    The Greens tuition fee abolition won't happen but even the Conservatives are campaigning on reducing the burden on graduates of their (and the LDs) tuition fee scheme.

    Even "leaving NATO" might happen if Trump destroys it.
    Yes. MMT, wealth tax now, end landlords, rent freeze, do deals with cartels etc etc

    All eminently sensible 🙄
    Small "g", which was what Labour ran on in 2019
    What like spunking 56 billion we haven’t got on the WASPI women 🤷‍♂️
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,578
    edited 12:25PM


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam
    ·
    28m
    This is really bad now - UK natural gas a month ahead just hit 170p a therm - it’s more than DOUBLED in a day and is now approaching the level (which was sustained for months) which caused problems in 2022… needed the energy price guarantee etc…

    Pray for sun and wind. At least we're approaching the spring/summer.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,786
    Taz said:


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam
    ·
    28m
    This is really bad now - UK natural gas a month ahead just hit 170p a therm - it’s more than DOUBLED in a day and is now approaching the level (which was sustained for months) which caused problems in 2022… needed the energy price guarantee etc…

    But, but, Qatar provides only 2% of our gas !!!

    Still a price worth paying according to Bart.

    Dig deep everyone. You’re paying to keep Bibi out of stir.
    Im on a 2 year energy fix....assuming they are still available should be a few hundred quid saving for 15 minutes work available today for the 80% on variable tariffs.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,646
    edited 12:30PM

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Roger said:

    The Labour inclination to become the Greens is where they are going wrong.

    They really need to chart their own course from the centre.

    Shabana Mahmood seems to be the ONLY Labour figure who understands you can be radical from the centre.

    God help us! Have you ever thought you might be better off with the Tories or Reform?
    Have you ever thought you might be better off with Your Party ?

    Labour tried a Green style platform in 2019. Where did it get them ?
    It got them 10,269,051 votes and just over 32%. Starmer got 9,708,716 votes and just under 34%.

    I'm under no illusion that a full-fat left-wing party will win an election. But Starmer's victory was based on nothing but a ming vase and watch the Tories do a remake of the Saw movies. The problem with British politics isn't right-wing nor left-wing, it's that nobody has a set of policies that work nor an overarching view of the problems and how to fix them. And until one does, we'll veer between Reform, Green, and for all I know Nuke Scotland For A Happier Britain party.
    It got them a battering at the polls.
    That 2019 GE was decided almost entirely on Brexit and anti-Corbyn sentiment, the other policies were irrelevant.

    A green policy platform is sensible, it is where the UK will end up willingly or otherwise, net zero, electrification, renewables, some (eye-wateringly expensive) nuclear and maybe better insulated housing.

    The Greens tuition fee abolition won't happen but even the Conservatives are campaigning on reducing the burden on graduates of their (and the LDs) tuition fee scheme.

    Even "leaving NATO" might happen if Trump destroys it.
    Yes. MMT, wealth tax now, end landlords, rent freeze, do deals with cartels etc etc

    All eminently sensible 🙄
    Reaction to:

    QE massively boosting private assets at the expense of workers
    Landlords pandered to for 20 years to win votes including above plus ever expanding housing benefit subsidies and tight planning control
    Drugs policies persistently failing over many decades

    If mainstream parties refuse to address long standing issues this is what we end up with.
    Ah the old ‘genuine concerns’

    Odd when it’s issues that attract people to Reform it’s not the policies but the voters are the problem 🤷‍♂️

    Workers have private assets you know and landlords provide a service and have been hammered since Osborne’s time.

  • TazTaz Posts: 25,646

    Taz said:


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam
    ·
    28m
    This is really bad now - UK natural gas a month ahead just hit 170p a therm - it’s more than DOUBLED in a day and is now approaching the level (which was sustained for months) which caused problems in 2022… needed the energy price guarantee etc…

    But, but, Qatar provides only 2% of our gas !!!

    Still a price worth paying according to Bart.

    Dig deep everyone. You’re paying to keep Bibi out of stir.
    Im on a 2 year energy fix....assuming they are still available should be a few hundred quid saving for 15 minutes work available today for the 80% on variable tariffs.
    What about business and others who use gas on a non domestic environment?
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,646
    Eabhal said:


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam
    ·
    28m
    This is really bad now - UK natural gas a month ahead just hit 170p a therm - it’s more than DOUBLED in a day and is now approaching the level (which was sustained for months) which caused problems in 2022… needed the energy price guarantee etc…

    Pray for sun and wind. At least we're approaching the spring/summer.
    Ace

    That makes it okay then 👍
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,415

    Taz said:


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam
    ·
    28m
    This is really bad now - UK natural gas a month ahead just hit 170p a therm - it’s more than DOUBLED in a day and is now approaching the level (which was sustained for months) which caused problems in 2022… needed the energy price guarantee etc…

    But, but, Qatar provides only 2% of our gas !!!

    Still a price worth paying according to Bart.

    Dig deep everyone. You’re paying to keep Bibi out of stir.
    Im on a 2 year energy fix....assuming they are still available should be a few hundred quid saving for 15 minutes work available today for the 80% on variable tariffs.
    British gas listing no fixed tariffs today:



    Of course, always possible that's just their website being broken, as per. I assume I'm supposed to be able to see a list of options somewhere on this screen...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 22,123
    No, its ok, I've been assured on PB that she is definitely guilty and that a jury looked at the evidence and everything...

    I will be amazed if there isn't some kind of appeal allowed. Too much has come out since.

    Its an awful situation. If she killed no babies then you have an innocent woman in prison for crimes that never happened. And you have grieving parents who believe that their children were killed when the reality was that they died from poor care on a ward that should not have been looking after them.

    OR

    She is the devil incarnate, an evil murderer who has wrecked hundreds of lives.

    And at the moment I don't believe anyone knows for sure which it is.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,461
    Reeves about to make her statement.

    What a complete waste of time.

    Every stat is now out of date.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,625

    Reform were gaining support running in to LE 25 and over achieved expectations
    Reform are losing support running in to LE 26, i expect them to undershoot expectations

    500 gains will be a disaster for them.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,771
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam
    ·
    28m
    This is really bad now - UK natural gas a month ahead just hit 170p a therm - it’s more than DOUBLED in a day and is now approaching the level (which was sustained for months) which caused problems in 2022… needed the energy price guarantee etc…

    Pray for sun and wind. At least we're approaching the spring/summer.
    Ace

    That makes it okay then 👍
    Of course not, but it makes it less bad than if this were to kick off in November.

    (cf Scargill's stupidity in launching the 1984/5 miners strike in the spring.)

    What might be a groundlet for hope is that I'm pretty sure that Trump has less stomach for the consequences of an extended conflict than Putin.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,415

    No, its ok, I've been assured on PB that she is definitely guilty and that a jury looked at the evidence and everything...

    I will be amazed if there isn't some kind of appeal allowed. Too much has come out since.

    Its an awful situation. If she killed no babies then you have an innocent woman in prison for crimes that never happened. And you have grieving parents who believe that their children were killed when the reality was that they died from poor care on a ward that should not have been looking after them.

    OR

    She is the devil incarnate, an evil murderer who has wrecked hundreds of lives.

    And at the moment I don't believe anyone knows for sure which it is.
    She's as guilty as sin and the conviction is unsafe. That would be my bet.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,094

    Reform were gaining support running in to LE 25 and over achieved expectations
    Reform are losing support running in to LE 26, i expect them to undershoot expectations

    500 gains will be a disaster for them.
    Labour would be cock a hoop with 500 Ref gains as they'd win by an absolute mile the most wards on the night and the Tories would also be well ahead of Ref
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,786
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Roger said:

    The Labour inclination to become the Greens is where they are going wrong.

    They really need to chart their own course from the centre.

    Shabana Mahmood seems to be the ONLY Labour figure who understands you can be radical from the centre.

    God help us! Have you ever thought you might be better off with the Tories or Reform?
    Have you ever thought you might be better off with Your Party ?

    Labour tried a Green style platform in 2019. Where did it get them ?
    It got them 10,269,051 votes and just over 32%. Starmer got 9,708,716 votes and just under 34%.

    I'm under no illusion that a full-fat left-wing party will win an election. But Starmer's victory was based on nothing but a ming vase and watch the Tories do a remake of the Saw movies. The problem with British politics isn't right-wing nor left-wing, it's that nobody has a set of policies that work nor an overarching view of the problems and how to fix them. And until one does, we'll veer between Reform, Green, and for all I know Nuke Scotland For A Happier Britain party.
    It got them a battering at the polls.
    That 2019 GE was decided almost entirely on Brexit and anti-Corbyn sentiment, the other policies were irrelevant.

    A green policy platform is sensible, it is where the UK will end up willingly or otherwise, net zero, electrification, renewables, some (eye-wateringly expensive) nuclear and maybe better insulated housing.

    The Greens tuition fee abolition won't happen but even the Conservatives are campaigning on reducing the burden on graduates of their (and the LDs) tuition fee scheme.

    Even "leaving NATO" might happen if Trump destroys it.
    Yes. MMT, wealth tax now, end landlords, rent freeze, do deals with cartels etc etc

    All eminently sensible 🙄
    Reaction to:

    QE massively boosting private assets at the expense of workers
    Landlords pandered to for 20 years to win votes including above plus ever expanding housing benefit subsidies and tight planning control
    Drugs policies persistently failing over many decades

    If mainstream parties refuse to address long standing issues this is what we end up with.
    Ah the old ‘genuine concerns’

    Odd when it’s issues that attract people to Reform it’s not the policies but the voters are the problem 🤷‍♂️

    Workers have private assets you know and landlords provide a service and have been hammered since Osborne’s time.

    I am saying the policies are a problem. That applies to immigration as much as it does inequality, housing or drugs.

    It is the failure of mainstream policies to tackle difficult issues with radical change* that opens the door for extremism and populist solutions that won't work.

    * because they are scared of short term electoral hits despite creating an environment of long term electoral death by a hundred cuts.

    As for workers, obviously there is a crossover but if you inflate assets far faster than wages, the losers in that are going to be the workers with few assets.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,578
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam
    ·
    28m
    This is really bad now - UK natural gas a month ahead just hit 170p a therm - it’s more than DOUBLED in a day and is now approaching the level (which was sustained for months) which caused problems in 2022… needed the energy price guarantee etc…

    Pray for sun and wind. At least we're approaching the spring/summer.
    Ace

    That makes it okay then 👍
    It does, significantly. We burn very little gas during the summer now, and our renewables contracts are fixed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,267
    carnforth said:

    No, its ok, I've been assured on PB that she is definitely guilty and that a jury looked at the evidence and everything...

    I will be amazed if there isn't some kind of appeal allowed. Too much has come out since.

    Its an awful situation. If she killed no babies then you have an innocent woman in prison for crimes that never happened. And you have grieving parents who believe that their children were killed when the reality was that they died from poor care on a ward that should not have been looking after them.

    OR

    She is the devil incarnate, an evil murderer who has wrecked hundreds of lives.

    And at the moment I don't believe anyone knows for sure which it is.
    She's as guilty as sin and the conviction is unsafe. That would be my bet.
    If it is generally thought she is guilty as sin, the "evidence" will be warped to fit that assumed outcome. That is how the worst of our mistrials occur.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,646

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam
    ·
    28m
    This is really bad now - UK natural gas a month ahead just hit 170p a therm - it’s more than DOUBLED in a day and is now approaching the level (which was sustained for months) which caused problems in 2022… needed the energy price guarantee etc…

    Pray for sun and wind. At least we're approaching the spring/summer.
    Ace

    That makes it okay then 👍
    Of course not, but it makes it less bad than if this were to kick off in November.

    (cf Scargill's stupidity in launching the 1984/5 miners strike in the spring.)

    What might be a groundlet for hope is that I'm pretty sure that Trump has less stomach for the consequences of an extended conflict than Putin.
    I get that it’s just the glib ‘don’t worry it’s spring’ retort. It doesn’t make it okay. This war won’t be quick and we have problems looming
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,578
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam
    ·
    28m
    This is really bad now - UK natural gas a month ahead just hit 170p a therm - it’s more than DOUBLED in a day and is now approaching the level (which was sustained for months) which caused problems in 2022… needed the energy price guarantee etc…

    Pray for sun and wind. At least we're approaching the spring/summer.
    Ace

    That makes it okay then 👍
    Of course not, but it makes it less bad than if this were to kick off in November.

    (cf Scargill's stupidity in launching the 1984/5 miners strike in the spring.)

    What might be a groundlet for hope is that I'm pretty sure that Trump has less stomach for the consequences of an extended conflict than Putin.
    I get that it’s just the glib ‘don’t worry it’s spring’ retort. It doesn’t make it okay. This war won’t be quick and we have problems looming
    I didn't say "don't worry". Our exposure to fossil fuels is going to wreck our economy, once again.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,786
    carnforth said:

    Taz said:


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam
    ·
    28m
    This is really bad now - UK natural gas a month ahead just hit 170p a therm - it’s more than DOUBLED in a day and is now approaching the level (which was sustained for months) which caused problems in 2022… needed the energy price guarantee etc…

    But, but, Qatar provides only 2% of our gas !!!

    Still a price worth paying according to Bart.

    Dig deep everyone. You’re paying to keep Bibi out of stir.
    Im on a 2 year energy fix....assuming they are still available should be a few hundred quid saving for 15 minutes work available today for the 80% on variable tariffs.
    British gas listing no fixed tariffs today:



    Of course, always possible that's just their website being broken, as per. I assume I'm supposed to be able to see a list of options somewhere on this screen...
    Of the big name suppliers for my postcode there is still a 2yr fix from Sainsburys and a 15 month fix from EON. Guessing will be gone by the end of the week unless some dramatic improvement in the Gulf.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,398

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Roger said:

    The Labour inclination to become the Greens is where they are going wrong.

    They really need to chart their own course from the centre.

    Shabana Mahmood seems to be the ONLY Labour figure who understands you can be radical from the centre.

    God help us! Have you ever thought you might be better off with the Tories or Reform?
    Have you ever thought you might be better off with Your Party ?

    Labour tried a Green style platform in 2019. Where did it get them ?
    It got them 10,269,051 votes and just over 32%. Starmer got 9,708,716 votes and just under 34%.

    I'm under no illusion that a full-fat left-wing party will win an election. But Starmer's victory was based on nothing but a ming vase and watch the Tories do a remake of the Saw movies. The problem with British politics isn't right-wing nor left-wing, it's that nobody has a set of policies that work nor an overarching view of the problems and how to fix them. And until one does, we'll veer between Reform, Green, and for all I know Nuke Scotland For A Happier Britain party.
    It got them a battering at the polls.
    That 2019 GE was decided almost entirely on Brexit and anti-Corbyn sentiment, the other policies were irrelevant.

    A green policy platform is sensible, it is where the UK will end up willingly or otherwise, net zero, electrification, renewables, some (eye-wateringly expensive) nuclear and maybe better insulated housing.

    The Greens tuition fee abolition won't happen but even the Conservatives are campaigning on reducing the burden on graduates of their (and the LDs) tuition fee scheme.

    Even "leaving NATO" might happen if Trump destroys it.
    Yes. MMT, wealth tax now, end landlords, rent freeze, do deals with cartels etc etc

    All eminently sensible 🙄
    Reaction to:

    QE massively boosting private assets at the expense of workers
    Landlords pandered to for 20 years to win votes including above plus ever expanding housing benefit subsidies and tight planning control
    Drugs policies persistently failing over many decades

    If mainstream parties refuse to address long standing issues this is what we end up with.
    That one is some way off what happened historically.

    Ask Mr Osborne.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,962
    https://x.com/ft/status/2028797580230930693

    EU urges Ukraine to allow access to pipeline carrying Russian oil
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 2,090
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Looks like the US administration doesn’t know what it’s doing or why it’s doing it.

    Instinct based on events so far is this will not topple the Iranian regime and whoever eventually emerges is (a) likely to be even more hardline than the fat old weirdo they’ve just nixed and (b) whether he is more hardline or not, will be desperate to get nukes, by buying from Russia if necessary, as an insurance against any repeat performance.

    If it was so easy to get nukes, given it does provide that safety, everyone would already have them, yet very few have joined the club in the last 20 years.

    The process of actually getting them remains prohibitive it seems.
    The problem is, is that you need more than nukes.

    You need nukes.
    You need a delivery system that can hit your enemy (or potential enemies) -this might therefore only be ICBMs
    You need enough of them that you can't be 'denuked' by a first strike by the enemy.

    Basically, you need to be the Soviet Union circa 1983.

    The first isn't too hard. It's the other two that are REALLY difficult.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,830

    "which looked into allegations including of harm to patients"

    Expert witness into harm of patients is being investigated for harm to patients. Well at least he sounds like he might be an qualified expert.
    The only reason I’m doubtful about a retrial is that Letby has never screamed her innocence.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,962
    https://x.com/britainelects/status/2028806597477110247?s=46

    Ref lead of 12pts
    Westminster voting intention

    REF: 30% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+2)
    LAB: 18% (-5)
    GRN: 13% (-)
    LDEM: 12% (+2)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 25 - 27 Feb
    Chgs. w/ 06 Feb
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,415
    edited 12:46PM

    carnforth said:

    Taz said:


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam
    ·
    28m
    This is really bad now - UK natural gas a month ahead just hit 170p a therm - it’s more than DOUBLED in a day and is now approaching the level (which was sustained for months) which caused problems in 2022… needed the energy price guarantee etc…

    But, but, Qatar provides only 2% of our gas !!!

    Still a price worth paying according to Bart.

    Dig deep everyone. You’re paying to keep Bibi out of stir.
    Im on a 2 year energy fix....assuming they are still available should be a few hundred quid saving for 15 minutes work available today for the 80% on variable tariffs.
    British gas listing no fixed tariffs today:



    Of course, always possible that's just their website being broken, as per. I assume I'm supposed to be able to see a list of options somewhere on this screen...
    Of the big name suppliers for my postcode there is still a 2yr fix from Sainsburys and a 15 month fix from EON. Guessing will be gone by the end of the week unless some dramatic improvement in the Gulf.
    Just tried both, on their own websites. Both error out....

    I suspect an automatic cut-out has triggered.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,646
    She’s mentioned breakfast clubs and rewarding scroungers
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,776

    I’ve got a new job on the BBC website as a headline writer.

    Horse in stable condition after river rescue

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9wnxryy0gyo

    I've got a new job, working in a factory building chess sets. We'll all be building different pieces.

    I'm going to be working knights.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,163

    No, its ok, I've been assured on PB that she is definitely guilty and that a jury looked at the evidence and everything...

    I will be amazed if there isn't some kind of appeal allowed. Too much has come out since.

    Its an awful situation. If she killed no babies then you have an innocent woman in prison for crimes that never happened. And you have grieving parents who believe that their children were killed when the reality was that they died from poor care on a ward that should not have been looking after them.

    OR

    She is the devil incarnate, an evil murderer who has wrecked hundreds of lives.

    And at the moment I don't believe anyone knows for sure which it is.
    I don’t either. It could well be a mix - she is guilty, but the ward was shit as well. See the GK Chesterton short story where a murder hides his crime by causing a battle to happen there.

    I just know that the idea, floated here, that “we shouldn’t prosecute her for further crimes, because they might fail to get a conviction, and that might cause the original conviction to fail. Which would really upset the parents” is simply wrong.

    Let justice be done, though the heavens fall.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,162

    kle4 said:

    Ratters said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    Israel has used the cover of the Iran War to launch a ground invasion of “strategic parts of Lebanon”.

    All part of the plan.

    https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3mg5fmb2evc2p

    Again it’s the other way around. Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel yesterday.
    I did think that was a particularly suicidal move by Hezbollah. Don't need to be a genius to work out Israel's response.
    The sections of Lebanon which are not Hezbollah must truly despise them, since they love to provoke Israel which inevitably hits them too.
    A bit like Iran, back in the day, Lebanon was a cool place for all sorts of people to hang out, known as the Paris of the Middle East.
    It wasn't entirely idyllic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_Lebanon?wprov=sfla1
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,596
    edited 12:52PM

    "which looked into allegations including of harm to patients"

    Expert witness into harm of patients is being investigated for harm to patients. Well at least he sounds like he might be an qualified expert.
    The only reason I’m doubtful about a retrial is that Letby has never screamed her innocence.
    I don't know the odds of a retrial, but the problem is a lot of people hear one theory (often one which was in fact explored) and immediately jump to saying there must be reasonable doubt, or fixate on the idea there was tunnel vision and so evidence was made to fit that, which will already have been argued.

    Actually new information has been much rarer, and it is that new information which might actually see a push for unsafe conviction surely and if it is relevant that's fair enough - but that stuff is usually drowned out by the 99.9% of us knowing only small bits of it, and usually focusing on bits that are less relevant or refighting the trial on a "well we can't be sure" basis very casually, which is surely not how they reevaluate these things.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,221
    edited 12:54PM

    kle4 said:

    Ratters said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    Israel has used the cover of the Iran War to launch a ground invasion of “strategic parts of Lebanon”.

    All part of the plan.

    https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3mg5fmb2evc2p

    Again it’s the other way around. Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel yesterday.
    I did think that was a particularly suicidal move by Hezbollah. Don't need to be a genius to work out Israel's response.
    The sections of Lebanon which are not Hezbollah must truly despise them, since they love to provoke Israel which inevitably hits them too.
    A bit like Iran, back in the day, Lebanon was a cool place for all sorts of people to hang out, known as the Paris of the Middle East.
    It wasn't entirely idyllic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_Lebanon?wprov=sfla1
    Was talking about the 1960s. 1970s few issues....
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,899

    I’ve got a new job on the BBC website as a headline writer.

    Horse in stable condition after river rescue

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9wnxryy0gyo

    Neigh, neigh and thrice neigh.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,646
    She wants to help working people but workers will be worse off the end of the parliament unlike pensioners and benefits clsimso
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,962
    https://x.com/joumannatv/status/2028806966701867311

    UAE Press Briefing:

    *UAE SAYS ATTACKS WILL IMPACT BILATERAL TIES, TRADE WITH IRAN

    *UAE SAYS STRATEGIC FOOD RESERVE SUFFICIENT FOR 4 - 6 MONTHS
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,776
    Taz said:

    She wants to help working people but workers will be worse off the end of the parliament unlike pensioners and benefits clsimso

    Jacking up taxes on employment is causing unemployment.

    Gee who could have foreseen that? 🤦‍♂️
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,162
    edited 12:59PM

    Sweeney74 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Reform ARE less dangerous than the Greens.

    The Greens want to leave NATO!

    The Greens do not want to leave NATO.
    We (the members) definitely do and if we're in government we'll find a way to do it.
    when someone tells you who/what they are, believe them.

    The Greens here in the UK, un-tested through years of coalition government are the loony fringe of the left. They've elected a genuine loony in Polanski, and their policy basket is a recipe for disaster.
    I think Zack is a chancer, not a loony
    What makes you think that about a bloke who sold woowoo techniques to make women get larger boobies....
    He didn't sell women woowoo techniques to increase their breast size. He gave a Sun journalist woowoo techniques to increase her breast size so he could be in the paper. Which is almost worse?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,929
    carnforth said:

    Taz said:


    Faisal Islam
    @faisalislam
    ·
    28m
    This is really bad now - UK natural gas a month ahead just hit 170p a therm - it’s more than DOUBLED in a day and is now approaching the level (which was sustained for months) which caused problems in 2022… needed the energy price guarantee etc…

    But, but, Qatar provides only 2% of our gas !!!

    Still a price worth paying according to Bart.

    Dig deep everyone. You’re paying to keep Bibi out of stir.
    Im on a 2 year energy fix....assuming they are still available should be a few hundred quid saving for 15 minutes work available today for the 80% on variable tariffs.
    British gas listing no fixed tariffs today:



    Of course, always possible that's just their website being broken, as per. I assume I'm supposed to be able to see a list of options somewhere on this screen...
    You wonder how matters will go for British Gas, already buckling under bad debts, unpaid bills and weak management, or Octopus, who have grown very fast and whose capital reserves are tight.

    Not that Starmer should necessarily complain if all the companies go tits up, of course. But since he had the opportunity to wipe out Thames Water with general approval and lost his nerve, I doubt if he'll welcome it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,646
    Liz Truss mentioned.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,646
    She’s an awful droney speaker
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,094
    edited 12:57PM
    Taz said:

    Liz Truss mentioned.

    As an aspiration?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,596
    Taz said:

    Liz Truss mentioned.

    I don't know the context but that's never a good sign.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,162

    No, its ok, I've been assured on PB that she is definitely guilty and that a jury looked at the evidence and everything...

    I will be amazed if there isn't some kind of appeal allowed. Too much has come out since.

    Its an awful situation. If she killed no babies then you have an innocent woman in prison for crimes that never happened. And you have grieving parents who believe that their children were killed when the reality was that they died from poor care on a ward that should not have been looking after them.

    OR

    She is the devil incarnate, an evil murderer who has wrecked hundreds of lives.

    And at the moment I don't believe anyone knows for sure which it is.
    Presumably Ms Letby knows.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,646
    Dodgy mention reform and Russia given the Epstein files and new labours pro Russian links
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