I’d even vote Your Party if it meant stopping them !
As for the Greens many of their policies won’t survive contact with the public when they get much more scrutiny .
At the moment it’s a free hit , give Labour a good kicking . The same for Reform where many previous Farage positions on issues like the NHS will come back to haunt them .
According to PBers Kemi is having a great war whilst Starmer is having a shocker. Will that move the polls?
Interesting interview with a quietly spoken Iranian Professor on radio 4.
So much brighter than the clod hopping Nick Robinson. He's trying to explain to Robinson the difference between 'freedom fighters' which are how they see themselves and Robinson who is struggling to frame a useful question.
"But how do you justify killing on October 7th men women and children just going about their business some at a party some just leaving a Kibbutz hoping to go for a night out with their friends .Women Children Party goers.....Time is short ...but there can be no justification. You know there can be no justification. So how do you do justify it professor..."
"I don't" replied the professor . 'It's part of a bigger story'
Pollster note: This is the highest we've had the Greens, the first time we've had them in second. It is also the lowest we have had Labour.
Suspicious family voting patterns in the Yougov polling respondents?
Not surprising in immediate aftermath of Denton.
Equal drop in Tory vote to Labour vote to Greens is a surprise.
It will be interesting to to see first Polls done totally Sunday and Monday to see Iran fall out as Tory and reform unequivocally supporting war has seen specific polling suggesting very unpopular.
Labour change of leader has been factored in for months, Tory change now looks equally inevitable based on both Polls
If you look like a loser the public react - Tories may drop further post May.
I’d even vote Your Party if it meant stopping them !
As for the Greens many of their policies won’t survive contact with the public when they get much more scrutiny .
At the moment it’s a free hit , give Labour a good kicking . The same for Reform where many previous Farage positions on issues like the NHS will come back to haunt them .
When you criticise Green policies can you please condemn all other parties.
It’s a new PB rule it seems 🤷♂️
You can just picture the scene in the run up to the GE where in the leaders grilling Polanski is asked to explain his drugs policy !
I know many in here think it’s a sensible policy but I’m convinced this isn’t where the vast majority of the public are .
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
Question for Badenoch and others. Why is it in the interests of the United Kingdom to join the United States in supporting Israel's effort to devastate the Middle East?
You need to ask Canada and Australia the same question
Question for Badenoch and others. Why is it in the interests of the United Kingdom to join the United States in supporting Israel's effort to devastate the Middle East?
It’s in everyone’s interest to take out the Iranian regime, the source of pretty much everything bad in the Middle East for the last decade.
Question for Badenoch and others. Why is it in the interests of the United Kingdom to join the United States in supporting Israel's effort to devastate the Middle East?
It’s in everyone’s interest to take out the Iranian regime, the source of pretty much everything bad in the Middle East for the last decade.
Well, them and Netanyahu, rather than all Israelis or Iranians. The awful and politically illegimate combination.
Ladbrokes has scrapped its whole list of UK politics specials! I guess whoever got the job of funding the next staff Xmas party with far-fetched but sounding-halfway-possible eventualities for credulous punters to back, will soon be looking for new employment?!
Some remain:- Boris Johnson Specials Jeremy Corbyn Specials Labour Party Leadership Next Permanent Liberal Democrat Leader (Temporary or Caretaker Leaders Do Not Count) Next Permanent Reform UK Leader (To replace Nigel Farage) Nigel Farage Specials Party Leader Specials Next Chancellor of The Exchequer Next Permanent Conservative Party Leader (Caretaker Or Temporary Leaders Do Not Count) Next London Mayoral Election Next UK Prime Minister UK - Next General Election
One imagines there is a rethink after severely underestimating the Greens at the by-election and in the polls.
Rumour has it that our bookies, who have been slowly expanding into America, are now looking with green eyes at the billions being raked in by Kalshi and Polymarket who have managed to get their markets regulated as derivatives (as in derived from the Wild West, where anything goes including blatant insider trading) rather than conventional bets.
Every one of the bets listed in the lead has, I think, disappeared?
That may be true but two things stand out. First is they are mainly New Year specials designed to take advantage of gullible, half-cut newspaper editors with space to fill. Second is bookies hugely underestimated the Greens (a general 6/1 for G&D when prices first went up) which has made them cautious.
Ladbrokes has scrapped its whole list of UK politics specials! I guess whoever got the job of funding the next staff Xmas party with far-fetched but sounding-halfway-possible eventualities for credulous punters to back, will soon be looking for new employment?!
Some remain:- Boris Johnson Specials Jeremy Corbyn Specials Labour Party Leadership Next Permanent Liberal Democrat Leader (Temporary or Caretaker Leaders Do Not Count) Next Permanent Reform UK Leader (To replace Nigel Farage) Nigel Farage Specials Party Leader Specials Next Chancellor of The Exchequer Next Permanent Conservative Party Leader (Caretaker Or Temporary Leaders Do Not Count) Next London Mayoral Election Next UK Prime Minister UK - Next General Election
One imagines there is a rethink after severely underestimating the Greens at the by-election and in the polls.
Rumour has it that our bookies, who have been slowly expanding into America, are now looking with green eyes at the billions being raked in by Kalshi and Polymarket who have managed to get their markets regulated as derivatives (as in derived from the Wild West, where anything goes including blatant insider trading) rather than conventional bets.
Who are the punters naive enough to take the other side of the "bets" that the Trump insiders are placing? Please don't tell me that the derivative status means that financial advisors/managers are pouring their clients' money into their gaping maws.
There could be an agreement. Taking the other side of the bet might be a deniable way to pay the bribe for advance notice.
The US have screwed up big time. The big fear of all the newly gentrified countries was always the Arab Street.They were all benefitting from great wealth and tourism which was why all the big Ad agencies were there which was why they could bring the likes of me to film their shampoos for them. But despite swimming in wealth they were very aware that their populations didn't necessarily share the loyalties of the rulers.
And if Iran holds out then the anti Americanism which exists throughout the region could start breaking out big time. My very multi cultural crew in Dubai told me that the big fear was a bombing outrage at which time the whole Disneyland could collapse like a pack of cards. I note that 14 countries have advised the Americans there to leave.
America is transforming itself into a pariah state. Unless they can overthrow the paedo king they are in serious danger of becoming unwelcome in large parts of the world.
I still remember last May sitting in a hotel in Ghent with colleagues chatting in the bar. Elderly gent looks across and asks "are you American?" We said "no, British" and he smiled: "oh good". Hmmmm, whatever did he mean...
Roger's telling porkies. The State Department advised Yanks to leave, not the local Gulf States.
And you don't think advice from state officials in the UAE etc would have a bearing on that direction?
Those of us actually in the UAE are having a great time. There’s no worry, no panic.
Yes there’s some tourists who weren’t expecting the problems, and some transit passengers who got stuck, but for the rest of us here it’s life goes on as normal. Everything’s still open except for a couple of theme parks.
Looks like the US administration doesn’t know what it’s doing or why it’s doing it.
Instinct based on events so far is this will not topple the Iranian regime and whoever eventually emerges is (a) likely to be even more hardline than the fat old weirdo they’ve just nixed and (b) whether he is more hardline or not, will be desperate to get nukes, by buying from Russia if necessary, as an insurance against any repeat performance.
If it was so easy to get nukes, given it does provide that safety, everyone would already have them, yet very few have joined the club in the last 20 years.
The process of actually getting them remains prohibitive it seems.
There are a couple of reasons. One is that buying them from abroad isn't easy. You are reliant then for maintenance, care and refuelling on a foreign power. If that foreign power changes its mind about you, you are then seriously fucked in the medium term. That can be seen with our dependence on the Americans for Trident. So to be independent you need your own capacity. That's not technically difficult, but it's hard to do in secret and it isn't cheap.
We then come back to, most of the great powers prefer to keep their technology to themselves - because after all, there are risks in letting small and unstable powers get hold of nukes in case some dementia-addled strong man gets hold of them and blows things up to Show He Can. That's ultimately the real reason why nuclear non-proliferation has been enforced.
Neither of those apply immediately to Iran. All of the world's three largest nuclear powers are currently led by insane superannuated egomaniacs who may push the button anyway to dispel rumours about their button mushrooms. And getting one quickly, as a temporary measure to make the Yanks think twice while developing their own capacity looks attractive and given Iran's strategic importance to Russia plus Russia's financial problems would probably not be that hard.
So unless the regime is toppled and replaced by a sane government composed mostly of flying pigs, I think there are very real risks involved.
Iran's policy in recent years appears to have been to get to a position where they are close to being able to build a nuclear weapon, but they don't actually have a nuclear weapon. This is a sweet spot for many countries. You piss off the great powers if you actually have a nuclear weapon, so don't do that, but you position yourself such that you can get one quickly if need be.
Somewhere like Japan is there too. They're not actively pursuing nuclear weapons, but everyone knows they could cobble something together quickly.
I’d even vote Your Party if it meant stopping them !
As for the Greens many of their policies won’t survive contact with the public when they get much more scrutiny .
At the moment it’s a free hit , give Labour a good kicking . The same for Reform where many previous Farage positions on issues like the NHS will come back to haunt them .
According to PBers Kemi is having a great war whilst Starmer is having a shocker. Will that move the polls?
Kemi has established beyond reasonable doubt that whatever the question Kemi is not the answer. She's a downgrade on Starmer and that's saying something. The Tories had some decent MPs after the last election. Where are they? Kemi can't force herself into the conversation which is a necessity for a LOTD. Also what does she think she's doing sitting next to the most unpopular female Toty MP in Parliament? Is it to make her look better?
I’d even vote Your Party if it meant stopping them !
As for the Greens many of their policies won’t survive contact with the public when they get much more scrutiny .
At the moment it’s a free hit , give Labour a good kicking . The same for Reform where many previous Farage positions on issues like the NHS will come back to haunt them .
When you criticise Green policies can you please condemn all other parties.
It’s a new PB rule it seems 🤷♂️
You can just picture the scene in the run up to the GE where in the leaders grilling Polanski is asked to explain his drugs policy !
I know many in here think it’s a sensible policy but I’m convinced this isn’t where the vast majority of the public are .
People ain’t stupid.
Legalise rather than decriminalise is due to the fact that we cannot regulate something that is illegal. It takes a moment and then it clicks.
Also Our talking points are simple. Eg your local pharmacy will not be using children to run drugs.
As for the running second. I’m prepared to believe that. Wherever I go I meet positivity and support. The naysayers are always old and inflexible. Your Daily Mail types.
Daily Mail types are not dumb or unfeeling, they often lack confidence and reach, they look to ‘what are other people like me thinking‘. And that is a weak position.
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
Goodwin thinks white immigrants can't be British either, nor their children, nor their grandchildren.
She's on 16% in the polls, which is the lowest the tories have ever polled. In what way has she improved? She's got better at Scrabble? Knocked 30s off her parkrun time?
The US have screwed up big time. The big fear of all the newly gentrified countries was always the Arab Street.They were all benefitting from great wealth and tourism which was why all the big Ad agencies were there which was why they could bring the likes of me to film their shampoos for them. But despite swimming in wealth they were very aware that their populations didn't necessarily share the loyalties of the rulers.
And if Iran holds out then the anti Americanism which exists throughout the region could start breaking out big time. My very multi cultural crew in Dubai told me that the big fear was a bombing outrage at which time the whole Disneyland could collapse like a pack of cards. I note that 14 countries have advised the Americans there to leave.
America is transforming itself into a pariah state. Unless they can overthrow the paedo king they are in serious danger of becoming unwelcome in large parts of the world.
I still remember last May sitting in a hotel in Ghent with colleagues chatting in the bar. Elderly gent looks across and asks "are you American?" We said "no, British" and he smiled: "oh good". Hmmmm, whatever did he mean...
Roger's telling porkies. The State Department advised Yanks to leave, not the local Gulf States.
And you don't think advice from state officials in the UAE etc would have a bearing on that direction?
Interesting interview with a quietly spoken Iranian Professor on radio 4.
So much brighter than the clod hopping Nick Robinson. He's trying to explain to Robinson the difference between 'freedom fighters' which are how they see themselves and Robinson who is struggling to frame a useful question.
"But how do you justify killing on October 7th men women and children just going about their business some at a party some just leaving a Kibbutz hoping to go for a night out with their friends .Women Children Party goers.....Time is short ...but there can be no justification. You know there can be no justification. So how do you do justify it professor..."
"I don't" replied the professor . 'It's part of a bigger story'
Do you think it's Allah's will that Israel exists?
The US have screwed up big time. The big fear of all the newly gentrified countries was always the Arab Street.They were all benefitting from great wealth and tourism which was why all the big Ad agencies were there which was why they could bring the likes of me to film their shampoos for them. But despite swimming in wealth they were very aware that their populations didn't necessarily share the loyalties of the rulers.
And if Iran holds out then the anti Americanism which exists throughout the region could start breaking out big time. My very multi cultural crew in Dubai told me that the big fear was a bombing outrage at which time the whole Disneyland could collapse like a pack of cards. I note that 14 countries have advised the Americans there to leave.
America is transforming itself into a pariah state. Unless they can overthrow the paedo king they are in serious danger of becoming unwelcome in large parts of the world.
I still remember last May sitting in a hotel in Ghent with colleagues chatting in the bar. Elderly gent looks across and asks "are you American?" We said "no, British" and he smiled: "oh good". Hmmmm, whatever did he mean...
Roger's telling porkies. The State Department advised Yanks to leave, not the local Gulf States.
Looks like the US administration doesn’t know what it’s doing or why it’s doing it.
Instinct based on events so far is this will not topple the Iranian regime and whoever eventually emerges is (a) likely to be even more hardline than the fat old weirdo they’ve just nixed and (b) whether he is more hardline or not, will be desperate to get nukes, by buying from Russia if necessary, as an insurance against any repeat performance.
If it was so easy to get nukes, given it does provide that safety, everyone would already have them, yet very few have joined the club in the last 20 years.
The process of actually getting them remains prohibitive it seems.
As interesting as well is the apparent fact (?) that the best mates of regimes like Iran - Russia, China, North Korea - have no plans to flog/give them nuclear weapons, nor make noises, so far anyway, about using them in support and retaliation. Though of course this is all rather early days in the conflict.
I can see why the polls look like they do. All the narratives since Christmas have been about the rise of ReformUK, the increasing success of the Greens, the disappointments of the Labour government and the tribulations of the Conservative Party. Fair enough. But why oh why are the Lib Dems still on 14%? No publicity (good or bad) no obvious personalities, no major stories in their constituencies (except perhaps sewage.) According to the old 20th century rules of polling, hey should be closer to 5% rather than 15% half-way through a Parliament.
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
If said party had a history of racism against white people it would be a valid comment. I'm not going to deny what I can see with my own eyes about the Reform agenda and the threat it poses, it is existential for me and my family so I'm not going to censor myself in the interests of political correctness.
Question for Badenoch and others. Why is it in the interests of the United Kingdom to join the United States in supporting Israel's effort to devastate the Middle East?
You need to ask Canada and Australia the same question
It's what allies do
No it isn't.
'Allies' weren't consulted, or even informed prior to the invasion. Expecting their backing as a matter of course or because of some sort of obligation is plain hubris.
It's a choice - and one which I think Starmer was correct to decline at the time.
Another poll showing Reform within spitting distance of coming second.
Tories are severely underrated at this point.
We arent there yet by any means but if Ref dip low enough there will be a reverse flood amongst the right back to the Tories. Nigel taking in the absolute garbage isnt helping him
I’m in the world’s most boring business class lounge. China Southern (domestic) at Pudong, Shanghai
It’s like the deserted cafeteria of a minor supermarket chain HQ in Dusseldorf in about 2010. Or maybe 2011
The one I was in on Sunday (Marsa Alam) will trump the lot for worst of all time. It had a kettle for hot drinks and a total of 4 soft drink cans (1 sprite, 1 Fanta, 2 coca-cola) in the fridge.
However fast pass / priority security meant we skipped past all 150 other people to get to the lounge - 2 people escorting us all the way and bypassing every queue.
So lounge hilariously bad, other benefits removed all the stress from an Egyptian airport, to the extent I would pay the £22 if I didn’t get it for free
My worst lounge was in the last place you’d expect to find it. Male, Maldives.
Only one lounge in the airport, £20 ish to get in.
A couple of plates of salad, nothing but water or fizzy drinks, no alcohol. They did have some decent chairs and power outlets, but that’s about it.
Having come from one of the honeymoon resorts, it was a massive let down.
Orlando is miserable. An overly crowded transit lounge set up with a tired salad drenched in unidentifiable gloop and suspicious looking of day-glo pink cookies. And massively crowded.
Business Class lounges have declined overall in recent years. Everywhere. Dunno if it’s Covid or what
To the extent I have sometimes had biz lounge access and eschewed it, so as to eat better food and drink better booze and actually pay for it amongst - shudder - the poor huddled masses
She's on 16% in the polls, which is the lowest the tories have ever polled. In what way has she improved? She's got better at Scrabble? Knocked 30s off her parkrun time?
Kemi is somewhat less comically awful than she was at the start. To the extent that, when presented with a completely open goal (e.g. Mandelson) there's a reasonable chance that the ball will end up in the back of the net. Losing Jenrick, Braverman etc was also a win, though I'm not sure how much she had to do with that.
There's a big gap between any of that and "PM in waiting" though. And a lot of the fundamentals- the hectoring tone with anyone who disagrees with her, getting all her ideas from the worst bits of TwiX- are still against her.
Question for Badenoch and others. Why is it in the interests of the United Kingdom to join the United States in supporting Israel's effort to devastate the Middle East?
You need to ask Canada and Australia the same question
It's what allies do
If I were Canadian I would ask the same question of Carney, as plenty of Canadians already are doing.
You appear to think the United Kingdom should have no agency on what wars it takes part in, as presumably does Badenoch.
Question for Badenoch and others. Why is it in the interests of the United Kingdom to join the United States in supporting Israel's effort to devastate the Middle East?
It’s in everyone’s interest to take out the Iranian regime, the source of pretty much everything bad in the Middle East for the last decade.
Fair point WRT Iran. It wasn't my question however, or what Israel is actually doing. It's out for the destruction of its neighborhood.
I’d even vote Your Party if it meant stopping them !
As for the Greens many of their policies won’t survive contact with the public when they get much more scrutiny .
At the moment it’s a free hit , give Labour a good kicking . The same for Reform where many previous Farage positions on issues like the NHS will come back to haunt them .
When you criticise Green policies can you please condemn all other parties.
It’s a new PB rule it seems 🤷♂️
You can just picture the scene in the run up to the GE where in the leaders grilling Polanski is asked to explain his drugs policy !
I know many in here think it’s a sensible policy but I’m convinced this isn’t where the vast majority of the public are .
It’s revolutionary but I’m not sure doing deals with Mexican cartels is something the public will embrace !!
If, and it’s a big if, things do improve and life gets a little,better and SKS and Rachel turn the ship around I’d expect both Reform and Greens to fall back and both end with around 40 MPs.
Question for Badenoch and others. Why is it in the interests of the United Kingdom to join the United States in supporting Israel's effort to devastate the Middle East?
It’s in everyone’s interest to take out the Iranian regime, the source of pretty much everything bad in the Middle East for the last decade.
Jamal Khashoggi might disagree with that assessment!
Assad (aided by Putin) was responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths in Syria. I think he was probably the source of the greatest amount of bad in the Middle East. (He was an ally of Iran's, but he was in control of what he was doing.) Islamic State was still around in the last decade and responsible for many deaths: much of the Yazidi genocide lies in your period, for example. They probably come second. (Iran was a constant opponent of IS.) I suggest Iran maybe only comes third.
She's on 16% in the polls, which is the lowest the tories have ever polled. In what way has she improved? She's got better at Scrabble? Knocked 30s off her parkrun time?
People have moved online in their heads. Algorithmic feeds put impressive stories about her on their phone. In an attention-based world she is doing very well. To our new chattering classes the polling is irrelevant.
Honestly the Greens being almost first is terrifying.
In that case I would vote for literally any party to stop them. They are legitimately dangerous.
Greene are on over 20% in less than a sixth of local by elections they've fought since LE25. There is no sign of a surge to national second showing yet. Its as illusory as Cleggs 32% in April 2010 and much further from a GE
I’d even vote Your Party if it meant stopping them !
As for the Greens many of their policies won’t survive contact with the public when they get much more scrutiny .
At the moment it’s a free hit , give Labour a good kicking . The same for Reform where many previous Farage positions on issues like the NHS will come back to haunt them .
When you criticise Green policies can you please condemn all other parties.
It’s a new PB rule it seems 🤷♂️
You can just picture the scene in the run up to the GE where in the leaders grilling Polanski is asked to explain his drugs policy !
I know many in here think it’s a sensible policy but I’m convinced this isn’t where the vast majority of the public are .
You can say the same about lots of their policies, though Green policies normally poll better than the party, because the party traditionally suffers from being seen as a wasted vote.
In an age of five-party politics you don't need policies to try to win 40-45% of the vote. 25-30% could well be enough.
A bold policy programme that is popular with a minority could do well. We are seeing now how a timid government struggles in office.
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
If said party had a history of racism against white people it would be a valid comment. I'm not going to deny what I can see with my own eyes about the Reform agenda and the threat it poses, it is existential for me and my family so I'm not going to censor myself in the interests of political correctness.
The greens are actively supporting, platforming and enabling islamofascism. Their deputy leader celebrates the rapes and murders of Jews on October 7. The same Green guy attends protests in SUPPORT of the evil Iranian regime
Likewise, the Greens want open borders and mass immigration which will destroy Britain as we know it, and they seek to leave us defenceless to boot
Compared to that Reform are about as menacing as the Lib Dems
This is what the Green Party's manifesto said at the general election on the topic of NATO:
The Green Party recognises that NATO has an important role in ensuring the ability of its member states to respond to threats to their security. We would work within NATO to achieve:
A greater focus on global peacebuilding.
A commitment to a ‘No First Use’ of nuclear weapons.
I knew Moore’s parents. Strong Liberals. I asked why his son was a Conservative considering their Liberal views. He replied that his son preferred winning.
Given the state of the Conservatives now, I fully expect him to join Reform.
For now, that's the Greens' strength, though it becomes a weakness in government.
I can detect at least three strands of greendom right now. One is greens with actual mandates from the electorate and sometimes a bit of power. MPs, councillors and so on. Maybe a bit hippy-dippy, but tempered by contact with reality. Then there are the kind of members who vote on conference resolutions, who are probably as unrepresentative as any other bunch of political activists.
And then there's Polanski, who I don't trust because I'm convinced he's too good at selling. (I'm weird like that.)
Somewhere in that mix, there will be a prospectus for government, and somehow that would be buffeted by the reality of actually governing. And then what would we end up with?
Yes. Polanski does say that. The Greens are a democratic party though, and it does not wholesale change its policies with a new leader. If Polanski becomes PM he won't be able to take Britain out of NATO. It's not how the Green Party works.
I know this is a culture shock compared to the undemocratic other parties in British politics, where the leader dictates party policy, but there it is.
She's on 16% in the polls, which is the lowest the tories have ever polled. In what way has she improved? She's got better at Scrabble? Knocked 30s off her parkrun time?
People have moved online in their heads. Algorithmic feeds put impressive stories about her on their phone. In an attention-based world she is doing very well. To our new chattering classes the polling is irrelevant.
So what is the chattering classes view? And how is that measured?
But there seems to a lot of endless internal debate, typically for the Greens and oppositely to Reform, on this, and not yet a settled policy.
Needless to say Farage's firm commitments to both Trumpist authoritarianism, and ICE-style government paramilitarism and ethnic strife, would probably be very much more dangerous in the short-term.
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
If said party had a history of racism against white people it would be a valid comment. I'm not going to deny what I can see with my own eyes about the Reform agenda and the threat it poses, it is existential for me and my family so I'm not going to censor myself in the interests of political correctness.
The greens are actively supporting, platforming and enabling islamofascism. Their deputy leader celebrates the rapes and murders of Jews on October 7. The same Green guy attends protests in SUPPORT of the evil Iranian regime
Likewise, the Greens want open borders and mass immigration which will destroy Britain as we know it, and they seek to leave us defenceless to boot
Compared to that Reform are about as menacing as the Lib Dems
Yes, agreed. I'm no fan of Reform but I would vote tactically for them to keep the Greens out. But I suspect among the middle aged and middle class I am in a minority, yet. I am on a Whatsapp group with some school friends. About the time of the Runcorn by-election a friend of mine gave a sad little homily telling us about how he had warned his sons about 'snake oil salesmen'. But he just seems to regard the Green win in Gorton as funny; I would regard the Green snakeoil as just as poisonous if not more so. It turns out the girlfriend of another friend was actually doorknocking for the Greens so perhaps he is just being polite.
Honestly the Greens being almost first is terrifying.
In that case I would vote for literally any party to stop them. They are legitimately dangerous.
Greens are high because they’re the current vehicle for “none of the above”. Scrutiny will do what gravity always does to balloons.
I've been saying for a while that the rapid rise of Reform means that another party could do the same. And here they are. And with years before an election there's time for them both to decline and be superseded by something else.
Honestly the Greens being almost first is terrifying.
In that case I would vote for literally any party to stop them. They are legitimately dangerous.
Greene are on over 20% in less than a sixth of local by elections they've fought since LE25. There is no sign of a surge to national second showing yet. Its as illusory as Cleggs 32% in April 2010 and much further from a GE
What we have is an outlier from the polling company which is most favourable to the Greens. But still, there's a chance the by-election boost will see them draw level with Labour in the polling, if they do well with the extra media exposure it's possible they will beat Labour in London in the local elections.
The by-election was an opportunity for the Greens, and they grasped it. Now that victory has created another opportunity for the Greens, and we see whether they can take this one too.
Yes. Polanski does say that. The Greens are a democratic party though, and it does not wholesale change its policies with a new leader. If Polanski becomes PM he won't be able to take Britain out of NATO. It's not how the Green Party works.
I know this is a culture shock compared to the undemocratic other parties in British politics, where the leader dictates party policy, but there it is.
Events, dear boy, events.
Democratically running all your policies through the membership works in opposition. If you are intending to actually run things, you need something that can respond much faster than that. 3 am phone calls and all that.
That's why character and instincts of people aspiring to be Prime Minister matter so much. I'm not convinced by either in the case of Zack.
I'm increasingly of the opinion that Netanyahu doesn't want a succesful functioning Iran of any sort, and Trump is too fucking stupid to know what he wants so Bibi fills the void. If you wanted to fkup a future democratic Iran, letting 20k, 40k, 100k (or whatever figure the Hasbara bros have plucked from their arses) of the brightest and best get slaughtered is a cunning plan.
WRT the YouGov polls. If today's is anywhere near right it's fairly epoch making, but not only because of Greens. It continues Reform's record with YG of only being a few points ahead and the other parties bunched. If they are right everything is in play.
The differing methodologies of the poling outfits, and which are most nearly right, is the most interesting question, and maybe insufficiently understood. At least by me.
For now, I stick by the view that Reform are in trouble with a three pronged problem: Closeness to Trump, the Zahawi/Braverman effect, and the mounting evidence of the 'Make Sure Reform Don't Win' alliance.
It's just a shame that the outbreak of World War Three rather overshadowed this year's annual Isle of Wight hedgelaying competition.
I can't decide whether this is refers to planting hedges - does one 'lay' them? - laying in hedges or getting laid in hedges. Or some kind of unspeakable conduct with a hedge We need more information!
Shocking lack of knowledge! Hedge-laying is an ancient art that transforms hedges into proper impenetrable field barriers. Stems are cut almost through then laid horizontally and woven. Usually the hedges are stacked into shape too. The resulting new growth just makes the hedges thicker and stronger.
The decline of hedge laying is why most modern field edges have patchy scrubby hedges plants, rather than proper barriers.
For now, that's the Greens' strength, though it becomes a weakness in government.
I can detect at least three strands of greendom right now. One is greens with actual mandates from the electorate and sometimes a bit of power. MPs, councillors and so on. Maybe a bit hippy-dippy, but tempered by contact with reality. Then there are the kind of members who vote on conference resolutions, who are probably as unrepresentative as any other bunch of political activists.
And then there's Polanski, who I don't trust because I'm convinced he's too good at selling. (I'm weird like that.)
Somewhere in that mix, there will be a prospectus for government, and somehow that would be buffeted by the reality of actually governing. And then what would we end up with?
If I was on charge of Labour election strategy I would be planning an October 2028 GE
I’d even vote Your Party if it meant stopping them !
As for the Greens many of their policies won’t survive contact with the public when they get much more scrutiny .
At the moment it’s a free hit , give Labour a good kicking . The same for Reform where many previous Farage positions on issues like the NHS will come back to haunt them .
According to PBers Kemi is having a great war whilst Starmer is having a shocker. Will that move the polls?
Kemi has established beyond reasonable doubt that whatever the question Kemi is not the answer. She's a downgrade on Starmer and that's saying something. The Tories had some decent MPs after the last election. Where are they? Kemi can't force herself into the conversation which is a necessity for a LOTD. Also what does she think she's doing sitting next to the most unpopular female Toty MP in Parliament? Is it to make her look better?
But there seems to a lot of endless internal debate, typically for the Greens and oppositely to Reform, on this, and not yet a settled policy.
Needless to say Farage's firm commitments to both Trumpist authoritarianism, and ICE-style government paramilitarism and ethnic strife, would probably be much more dangerous in the short-term.
We can look at other countries' experiences to try to predict what would happen in the UK. We have seen what Reform's friends have done in the US (Trump disaster) or indeed Hungary (Orbán disaster): democracy eroded, massive corruption. I can't think of any country that have had a Green majority government, but we have multiple examples of Greens in coalition (Germany, Belgium, Austria, Sweden, etc.). None of these obviously ended in disaster, at least not on the same scale.
Good Morning all. That's a comment on the weather, not the situation, especially in the Middle East.
Mrs C had an 'interesting' conversation yesterday while waiting for me at a physio unit. One of the other females waiting for their semi-abled male partners apparently explained to her why the country was in 'such a mess' It's all the refugees, apparently; paid £600 on arrival, given free food and housing, cars, and other benefits. The woman went on at some length apparently in the same vein.
Where do these stories come from? Admittedly this was in Braintree, which is festooned with Union Jacks and St Georges crosses, and where there's apparently a fund to make sure said 'decorations' are maintained in good condition.
Yes. Polanski does say that. The Greens are a democratic party though, and it does not wholesale change its policies with a new leader. If Polanski becomes PM he won't be able to take Britain out of NATO. It's not how the Green Party works.
I know this is a culture shock compared to the undemocratic other parties in British politics, where the leader dictates party policy, but there it is.
Events, dear boy, events.
Democratically running all your policies through the membership works in opposition. If you are intending to actually run things, you need something that can respond much faster than that. 3 am phone calls and all that.
That's why character and instincts of people aspiring to be Prime Minister matter so much. I'm not convinced by either in the case of Zack.
That's reasonable, although in the past collective decision-making by the Cabinet used to be much more important in Britain.
Blanket statements attacking the Greens for wanting to leave NATO are just ignorant.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 33m To Labour MPs panicking about the Greens. Polanski has broken through because you allowed him to. You broadly supported the Starmer strategy. You sat back when Burnham was blocked. You cheered Starmer when the cabinet rallied round him. Fine. But don't start crying about it now.
If a decent chunk of those green voters actually understand what policies they are voting for, then the country is screwed. Reform would be bad, but reversible after they fell. The Greens? At that stage it would be everyone for themselves and try to hang in and survive it.
Thinking Reform are less dangerous than the Greens... tell me you're white without telling me you're white...
What a disgraceful thing to post.
Also demonstrates that you don’t understand what I wrote. Go and actually read both manifestos. It is an objective fact that both would be terrible for the country, but only the green manifesto would be irreversible (e.g. ending nuclear power and Trident).
Only a white person could be sufficiently complacent about the threat from Reform to think that the Greens are the more dangerous of the two parties peddling populist fantasies. Reform put up a candidate in G&D who has said that non-white Britons aren't British. Every week some Reform candidate/councillor or other turns out to be an utter racist. The party talks up ICE style deportations. I don't think the country could survive a Reform government. And I think a lot of otherwise well meaning white people don't understand the fear that Reform generates among a lot of minority citizens.
If I responded to someone saying they’d vote for an extreme left party in preference to Reform with the words “tell me you aren’t black without telling me you aren’t black”, I’d rightly get called out over it.
If said party had a history of racism against white people it would be a valid comment. I'm not going to deny what I can see with my own eyes about the Reform agenda and the threat it poses, it is existential for me and my family so I'm not going to censor myself in the interests of political correctness.
The greens are actively supporting, platforming and enabling islamofascism. Their deputy leader celebrates the rapes and murders of Jews on October 7. The same Green guy attends protests in SUPPORT of the evil Iranian regime
Likewise, the Greens want open borders and mass immigration which will destroy Britain as we know it, and they seek to leave us defenceless to boot
Compared to that Reform are about as menacing as the Lib Dems
Yes, agreed. I'm no fan of Reform but I would vote tactically for them to keep the Greens out. But I suspect among the middle aged and middle class I am in a minority, yet. I am on a Whatsapp group with some school friends. About the time of the Runcorn by-election a friend of mine gave a sad little homily telling us about how he had warned his sons about 'snake oil salesmen'. But he just seems to regard the Green win in Gorton as funny; I would regard the Green snakeoil as just as poisonous if not more so. It turns out the girlfriend of another friend was actually doorknocking for the Greens so perhaps he is just being polite.
The longstanding general.membership of the Greens is much more socially liberal than some parts of YourParty. They're never going to turn Britain into.a religiously conservative place, and if they get much nearer to power, for this reason will probably start to shed the more conservative parts of the minority vote in fairly short order.
WRT the YouGov polls. If today's is anywhere near right it's fairly epoch making, but not only because of Greens. It continues Reform's record with YG of only being a few points ahead and the other parties bunched. If they are right everything is in play.
The differing methodologies of the poling outfits, and which are most nearly right, is the most interesting question, and maybe insufficiently understood. At least by me.
For now, I stick by the view that Reform are in trouble with a three pronged problem: Closeness to Trump, the Zahawi/Braverman effect, and the mounting evidence of the 'Make Sure Reform Don't Win' alliance.
Reform are at post LE 25 lows with Ashcroft, YG, FoN and Focaldata (22, 23, 26 and 26)and just above with MiC last week. Focaldata are overdue to report so be interesting to see if they dip further or recover. Reform are definitely at 'shields buckling Captain Nigel'
Good Morning all. That's a comment on the weather, not the situation, especially in the Middle East.
Mrs C had an 'interesting' conversation yesterday while waiting for me at a physio unit. One of the other females waiting for their semi-abled male partners apparently explained to her why the country was in 'such a mess' It's all the refugees, apparently; paid £600 on arrival, given free food and housing, cars, and other benefits. The woman went on at some length apparently in the same vein.
Where do these stories come from? Admittedly this was in Braintree, which is festooned with Union Jacks and St Georges crosses, and where there's apparently a fund to make sure said 'decorations' are maintained in good condition.
Social media.
The question is... is this just an organic process whereby the algorithms encourage outrage, or are actors actively feeding anti-immigrant content into social media? Or both.
But there seems to a lot of endless internal debate, typically for the Greens and oppositely to Reform, on this, and not yet a settled policy.
Needless to say Farage's firm commitments to both Trumpist authoritarianism, and ICE-style government paramilitarism and ethnic strife, would probably be much more dangerous in the short-term.
We can look at other countries' experiences to try to predict what would happen in the UK. We have seen what Reform's friends have done in the US (Trump disaster) or indeed Hungary (Orbán disaster): democracy eroded, massive corruption. I can't think of any country that have had a Green majority government, but we have multiple examples of Greens in coalition (Germany, Belgium, Austria, Sweden, etc.). None of these obviously ended in disaster, at least not on the same scale.
Some people are projecting their worst fears onto the Greens. They are the monsters under the bed in corporeal form.
I can think of one poster, strongly opposed to the Greens, who has a more clear-headed basis for their opposition to the Greens - they don't want to pay lots more tax.
I'm sure a PB.com debate on tax and spending policy would be no less illuminating than this morning's debate, but at least it would have the benefit of being rooted in reality.
But there seems to a lot of endless internal debate, typically for the Greens and oppositely to Reform, on this, and not yet a settled policy.
Needless to say Farage's firm commitments to both Trumpist authoritarianism, and ICE-style government paramilitarism and ethnic strife, would probably be much more dangerous in the short-term.
We can look at other countries' experiences to try to predict what would happen in the UK. We have seen what Reform's friends have done in the US (Trump disaster) or indeed Hungary (Orbán disaster): democracy eroded, massive corruption. I can't think of any country that have had a Green majority government, but we have multiple examples of Greens in coalition (Germany, Belgium, Austria, Sweden, etc.). None of these obviously ended in disaster, at least not on the same scale.
Germany are certainly ruing the energy policies foisted on them by their green partners now.
Re local elections, the Lib Dem’s, with their historic record of doing better in local elections, probably scoop up a lot of people who tell pollsters they would vote Green.
Local by-elections show the Lib Dem’s coming second behind Reform, and if they maintain their 2022 vote share, 19%, while the Conservatives and Labour fall below 20%, they as well as Reform will pick up a load of seats.
But there seems to a lot of endless internal debate, typically for the Greens and oppositely to Reform, on this, and not yet a settled policy.
Needless to say Farage's firm commitments to both Trumpist authoritarianism, and ICE-style government paramilitarism and ethnic strife, would probably be much more dangerous in the short-term.
We can look at other countries' experiences to try to predict what would happen in the UK. We have seen what Reform's friends have done in the US (Trump disaster) or indeed Hungary (Orbán disaster): democracy eroded, massive corruption. I can't think of any country that have had a Green majority government, but we have multiple examples of Greens in coalition (Germany, Belgium, Austria, Sweden, etc.). None of these obviously ended in disaster, at least not on the same scale.
Germany are certainly ruing the energy policies foisted on them by their green partners now.
I'm not saying they've been great in government, but that's not on the same scale as the US or Hungary!
But there seems to a lot of endless internal debate, typically for the Greens and oppositely to Reform, on this, and not yet a settled policy.
Needless to say Farage's firm commitments to both Trumpist authoritarianism, and ICE-style government paramilitarism and ethnic strife, would probably be much more dangerous in the short-term.
We can look at other countries' experiences to try to predict what would happen in the UK. We have seen what Reform's friends have done in the US (Trump disaster) or indeed Hungary (Orbán disaster): democracy eroded, massive corruption. I can't think of any country that have had a Green majority government, but we have multiple examples of Greens in coalition (Germany, Belgium, Austria, Sweden, etc.). None of these obviously ended in disaster, at least not on the same scale.
you're mixing up “I hate their politics” with “their economies collapsed”.
US under Trump: institutional carnage, yes. Economic disaster? Not really. The US has basically lapped most of the Eurozone on growth and productivity over the last decade.
Hungary under Orbán: corrupt and illiberal, agreed. But again, not an economic crater. Meanwhile the “nice” Eurozone examples you list (Germany/Belgium/Austria etc) have been flirting with stagnation for years.
So sure, argue democracy and corruption. But if you’re going to do the “look at other countries” thing, don’t pretend the growth numbers line up with your moral sorting hat.
She's on 16% in the polls, which is the lowest the tories have ever polled. In what way has she improved? She's got better at Scrabble? Knocked 30s off her parkrun time?
People have moved online in their heads. Algorithmic feeds put impressive stories about her on their phone. In an attention-based world she is doing very well. To our new chattering classes the polling is irrelevant.
So what is the chattering classes view? And how is that measured?
The number of approving podcasts and other online "hot takes". Even, unsarcastically, us at PB.
For now, that's the Greens' strength, though it becomes a weakness in government.
I can detect at least three strands of greendom right now. One is greens with actual mandates from the electorate and sometimes a bit of power. MPs, councillors and so on. Maybe a bit hippy-dippy, but tempered by contact with reality. Then there are the kind of members who vote on conference resolutions, who are probably as unrepresentative as any other bunch of political activists.
And then there's Polanski, who I don't trust because I'm convinced he's too good at selling. (I'm weird like that.)
Somewhere in that mix, there will be a prospectus for government, and somehow that would be buffeted by the reality of actually governing. And then what would we end up with?
If I was on charge of Labour election strategy I would be planning an October 2028 GE
I’d even vote Your Party if it meant stopping them !
As for the Greens many of their policies won’t survive contact with the public when they get much more scrutiny .
At the moment it’s a free hit , give Labour a good kicking . The same for Reform where many previous Farage positions on issues like the NHS will come back to haunt them .
According to PBers Kemi is having a great war whilst Starmer is having a shocker. Will that move the polls?
Kemi has established beyond reasonable doubt that whatever the question Kemi is not the answer. She's a downgrade on Starmer and that's saying something. The Tories had some decent MPs after the last election. Where are they? Kemi can't force herself into the conversation which is a necessity for a LOTD. Also what does she think she's doing sitting next to the most unpopular female Toty MP in Parliament? Is it to make her look better?
It's just a shame that the outbreak of World War Three rather overshadowed this year's annual Isle of Wight hedgelaying competition.
I can't decide whether this is refers to planting hedges - does one 'lay' them? - laying in hedges or getting laid in hedges. Or some kind of unspeakable conduct with a hedge We need more information!
Shocking lack of knowledge! Hedge-laying is an ancient art that transforms hedges into proper impenetrable field barriers. Stems are cut almost through then laid horizontally and woven. Usually the hedges are stacked into shape too. The resulting new growth just makes the hedges thicker and stronger.
The decline of hedge laying is why most modern field edges have patchy scrubby hedges plants, rather than proper barriers.
But there seems to a lot of endless internal debate, typically for the Greens and oppositely to Reform, on this, and not yet a settled policy.
Needless to say Farage's firm commitments to both Trumpist authoritarianism, and ICE-style government paramilitarism and ethnic strife, would probably be much more dangerous in the short-term.
We can look at other countries' experiences to try to predict what would happen in the UK. We have seen what Reform's friends have done in the US (Trump disaster) or indeed Hungary (Orbán disaster): democracy eroded, massive corruption. I can't think of any country that have had a Green majority government, but we have multiple examples of Greens in coalition (Germany, Belgium, Austria, Sweden, etc.). None of these obviously ended in disaster, at least not on the same scale.
you're mixing up “I hate their politics” with “their economies collapsed”.
US under Trump: institutional carnage, yes. Economic disaster? Not really. The US has basically lapped most of the Eurozone on growth and productivity over the last decade.
Hungary under Orbán: corrupt and illiberal, agreed. But again, not an economic crater. Meanwhile the “nice” Eurozone examples you list (Germany/Belgium/Austria etc) have been flirting with stagnation for years.
So sure, argue democracy and corruption. But if you’re going to do the “look at other countries” thing, don’t pretend the growth numbers line up with your moral sorting hat.
I haven't pretended the growth numbers line up. I didn't mention growth! You're the one who first mentioned growth. I made an argument on democracy and corruption.
WRT the YouGov polls. If today's is anywhere near right it's fairly epoch making, but not only because of Greens. It continues Reform's record with YG of only being a few points ahead and the other parties bunched. If they are right everything is in play.
The differing methodologies of the poling outfits, and which are most nearly right, is the most interesting question, and maybe insufficiently understood. At least by me.
For now, I stick by the view that Reform are in trouble with a three pronged problem: Closeness to Trump, the Zahawi/Braverman effect, and the mounting evidence of the 'Make Sure Reform Don't Win' alliance.
Reform are at post LE 25 lows with Ashcroft, YG, FoN and Focaldata (22, 23, 26 and 26)and just above with MiC last week. Focaldata are overdue to report so be interesting to see if they dip further or recover. Reform are definitely at 'shields buckling Captain Nigel'
Reform have definitely paid a price for accepting a few too many Tory retreads. Farage probably thought it was worth it to have some semi-plausible potential ministers with experience.
But there seems to a lot of endless internal debate, typically for the Greens and oppositely to Reform, on this, and not yet a settled policy.
Needless to say Farage's firm commitments to both Trumpist authoritarianism, and ICE-style government paramilitarism and ethnic strife, would probably be much more dangerous in the short-term.
We can look at other countries' experiences to try to predict what would happen in the UK. We have seen what Reform's friends have done in the US (Trump disaster) or indeed Hungary (Orbán disaster): democracy eroded, massive corruption. I can't think of any country that have had a Green majority government, but we have multiple examples of Greens in coalition (Germany, Belgium, Austria, Sweden, etc.). None of these obviously ended in disaster, at least not on the same scale.
you're mixing up “I hate their politics” with “their economies collapsed”.
US under Trump: institutional carnage, yes. Economic disaster? Not really. The US has basically lapped most of the Eurozone on growth and productivity over the last decade.
Hungary under Orbán: corrupt and illiberal, agreed. But again, not an economic crater. Meanwhile the “nice” Eurozone examples you list (Germany/Belgium/Austria etc) have been flirting with stagnation for years.
So sure, argue democracy and corruption. But if you’re going to do the “look at other countries” thing, don’t pretend the growth numbers line up with your moral sorting hat.
I haven't pretended the growth numbers line up. I didn't mention growth! You're the one who first mentioned growth. I made an argument on democracy and corruption.
yes quite, I'm arguing that the economy and growth matter, whereas you don't mention it at all.
WRT the YouGov polls. If today's is anywhere near right it's fairly epoch making, but not only because of Greens. It continues Reform's record with YG of only being a few points ahead and the other parties bunched. If they are right everything is in play.
The differing methodologies of the poling outfits, and which are most nearly right, is the most interesting question, and maybe insufficiently understood. At least by me.
For now, I stick by the view that Reform are in trouble with a three pronged problem: Closeness to Trump, the Zahawi/Braverman effect, and the mounting evidence of the 'Make Sure Reform Don't Win' alliance.
Reform are at post LE 25 lows with Ashcroft, YG, FoN and Focaldata (22, 23, 26 and 26)and just above with MiC last week. Focaldata are overdue to report so be interesting to see if they dip further or recover. Reform are definitely at 'shields buckling Captain Nigel'
Given that the thread header is about a polling outlier, it has been nearly a year since the last poll score for Reform below 20%. That is within range of a small polling shift+polling outlier now.
It will be the most amusing thing ever if the defecters from the Tories turn out to be the first rats to join a sinking ship.
Only YouGov, FoN and Ashcroft have ever polled the Greens above 15%. I think its a bit early to be thinking about Zack Polanski is crap is PM
The green debate need context. It unlikely to form a government, but rather is a significant player in the left of centre alliance. Obvs in England there are three players, four in S and W. Greens are interesting because, unlike the LDs their 'stock market value' is volatile. In the next election there is a massive chance that the LDs will get between 50 and 100 MPs. The Green's range with similar probability is, I suggest (guess) between 2 and 175. Bet accordingly, DYOR.
But there seems to a lot of endless internal debate, typically for the Greens and oppositely to Reform, on this, and not yet a settled policy.
Needless to say Farage's firm commitments to both Trumpist authoritarianism, and ICE-style government paramilitarism and ethnic strife, would probably be much more dangerous in the short-term.
We can look at other countries' experiences to try to predict what would happen in the UK. We have seen what Reform's friends have done in the US (Trump disaster) or indeed Hungary (Orbán disaster): democracy eroded, massive corruption. I can't think of any country that have had a Green majority government, but we have multiple examples of Greens in coalition (Germany, Belgium, Austria, Sweden, etc.). None of these obviously ended in disaster, at least not on the same scale.
Germany are certainly ruing the energy policies foisted on them by their green partners now.
I'm not saying they've been great in government, but that's not on the same scale as the US or Hungary!
Probably because they’ve never actually run the govt just been a minor partner with their malign influence.
Comments
So much brighter than the clod hopping Nick Robinson. He's trying to explain to Robinson the difference between 'freedom fighters' which are how they see themselves and Robinson who is struggling to frame a useful question.
"But how do you justify killing on October 7th men women and children just going about their business some at a party some just leaving a Kibbutz hoping to go for a night out with their friends .Women Children Party goers.....Time is short ...but there can be no justification. You know there can be no justification. So how do you do justify it professor..."
"I don't" replied the professor . 'It's part of a bigger story'
Nowcast Model:
RFM: 227 (+222)
GRN: 135 (+131)
LDM: 92 (+20)
CON: 59 (-62)
SNP: 48 (+39)
LAB: 40 (-371)
PLC: 20 (+16)
Others: 10 (+5)
https://bsky.app/profile/electionmaps.uk/post/3mg5fn3ilyk2o
I know many in here think it’s a sensible policy but I’m convinced this isn’t where the vast majority of the public are .
It's what allies do
Amazing what you can do when you have more money than you can sensibly spend.
Taking the other side of the bet might be a deniable way to pay the bribe for advance notice.
For a big enough player it would be worth it.
Yes there’s some tourists who weren’t expecting the problems, and some transit passengers who got stuck, but for the rest of us here it’s life goes on as normal. Everything’s still open except for a couple of theme parks.
Ukraine is 100x worse.
Somewhere like Japan is there too. They're not actively pursuing nuclear weapons, but everyone knows they could cobble something together quickly.
Legalise rather than decriminalise is due to the fact that we cannot regulate something that is illegal. It takes a moment and then it clicks.
Also Our talking points are simple. Eg your local pharmacy will not be using children to run drugs.
As for the running second. I’m prepared to believe that. Wherever I go I meet positivity and support. The naysayers are always old and inflexible. Your Daily Mail types.
Daily Mail types are not dumb or unfeeling, they often lack confidence and reach, they look to ‘what are other people like me thinking‘. And that is a weak position.
First feels possible.
Tories are severely underrated at this point.
In that case I would vote for literally any party to stop them. They are legitimately dangerous.
The Greens want to leave NATO!
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-commemoration-programme-list-of-covid-19-memorials
What three words is used for many locations, and one in Greenwich sounds distinctly sleazy:-
https://what3words.com/casino.deals.anyone
'Allies' weren't consulted, or even informed prior to the invasion. Expecting their backing as a matter of course or because of some sort of obligation is plain hubris.
It's a choice - and one which I think Starmer was correct to decline at the time.
Just like Finland and Sweden they changed their mind after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
To the extent I have sometimes had biz lounge access and eschewed it, so as to eat better food and drink better booze and actually pay for it amongst - shudder - the poor huddled masses
743 times.
There's a big gap between any of that and "PM in waiting" though. And a lot of the fundamentals- the hectoring tone with anyone who disagrees with her, getting all her ideas from the worst bits of TwiX- are still against her.
You appear to think the United Kingdom should have no agency on what wars it takes part in, as presumably does Badenoch. Fair point WRT Iran. It wasn't my question however, or what Israel is actually doing. It's out for the destruction of its neighborhood.
If, and it’s a big if, things do improve and life gets a little,better and SKS and Rachel turn the ship around I’d expect both Reform and Greens to fall back and both end with around 40 MPs.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jan/20/uk-should-consider-expelling-us-forces-from-british-bases-says-zack-polanski
Green / LD / SNP / Lab / Plaid = 335
Green / LD / Lab / Plaid = 287
Ref / Con = 286
I can't see how any government would be able to function.
Reform seem to be adopting sound money the Greens want to turn us into Zimbabwe with hard drugs.
Assad (aided by Putin) was responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths in Syria. I think he was probably the source of the greatest amount of bad in the Middle East. (He was an ally of Iran's, but he was in control of what he was doing.) Islamic State was still around in the last decade and responsible for many deaths: much of the Yazidi genocide lies in your period, for example. They probably come second. (Iran was a constant opponent of IS.) I suggest Iran maybe only comes third.
That is absolutely batshit insane.
There is no sign of a surge to national second showing yet.
Its as illusory as Cleggs 32% in April 2010 and much further from a GE
In an age of five-party politics you don't need policies to try to win 40-45% of the vote. 25-30% could well be enough.
A bold policy programme that is popular with a minority could do well. We are seeing now how a timid government struggles in office.
Scrutiny will do what gravity always does to balloons.
Likewise, the Greens want open borders and mass immigration which will destroy Britain as we know it, and they seek to leave us defenceless to boot
Compared to that Reform are about as menacing as the Lib Dems
The Green Party recognises that NATO has an important role in ensuring the ability of its member states to respond to threats to their security. We would work within NATO to achieve:
A greater focus on global peacebuilding.
A commitment to a ‘No First Use’ of nuclear weapons.
Given the state of the Conservatives now, I fully expect him to join Reform.
I can detect at least three strands of greendom right now. One is greens with actual mandates from the electorate and sometimes a bit of power. MPs, councillors and so on. Maybe a bit hippy-dippy, but tempered by contact with reality. Then there are the kind of members who vote on conference resolutions, who are probably as unrepresentative as any other bunch of political activists.
And then there's Polanski, who I don't trust because I'm convinced he's too good at selling. (I'm weird like that.)
Somewhere in that mix, there will be a prospectus for government, and somehow that would be buffeted by the reality of actually governing. And then what would we end up with?
I know this is a culture shock compared to the undemocratic other parties in British politics, where the leader dictates party policy, but there it is.
Needless to say Farage's firm commitments to both Trumpist authoritarianism, and ICE-style government paramilitarism and ethnic strife, would probably be very much more dangerous in the short-term.
If that ends up as a protest vote, so be it.
There's no such thing as a 'forced choice' in a democracy.
Helium balloons possibly, but even they leech out and fall eventually.
So that job is going to be done by
the French !
I am on a Whatsapp group with some school friends. About the time of the Runcorn by-election a friend of mine gave a sad little homily telling us about how he had warned his sons about 'snake oil salesmen'. But he just seems to regard the Green win in Gorton as funny; I would regard the Green snakeoil as just as poisonous if not more so. It turns out the girlfriend of another friend was actually doorknocking for the Greens so perhaps he is just being polite.
The by-election was an opportunity for the Greens, and they grasped it. Now that victory has created another opportunity for the Greens, and we see whether they can take this one too.
Democratically running all your policies through the membership works in opposition. If you are intending to actually run things, you need something that can respond much faster than that. 3 am phone calls and all that.
That's why character and instincts of people aspiring to be Prime Minister matter so much. I'm not convinced by either in the case of Zack.
https://x.com/BladeoftheS/status/2028617028408332743?s=20
I'm increasingly of the opinion that Netanyahu doesn't want a succesful functioning Iran of any sort, and Trump is too fucking stupid to know what he wants so Bibi fills the void. If you wanted to fkup a future democratic Iran, letting 20k, 40k, 100k (or whatever figure the Hasbara bros have plucked from their arses) of the brightest and best get slaughtered is a cunning plan.
The differing methodologies of the poling outfits, and which are most nearly right, is the most interesting question, and maybe insufficiently understood. At least by me.
For now, I stick by the view that Reform are in trouble with a three pronged problem: Closeness to Trump, the Zahawi/Braverman effect, and the mounting evidence of the 'Make Sure Reform Don't Win' alliance.
I think its a bit early to be thinking about Zack Polanski is crap is PM
The decline of hedge laying is why most modern field edges have patchy scrubby hedges plants, rather than proper barriers.
That will be pea She has a mental illness
Aggressive Attention Disorder
No way can she be PM
That's a comment on the weather, not the situation, especially in the Middle East.
Mrs C had an 'interesting' conversation yesterday while waiting for me at a physio unit. One of the other females waiting for their semi-abled male partners apparently explained to her why the country was in 'such a mess' It's all the refugees, apparently; paid £600 on arrival, given free food and housing, cars, and other benefits. The woman went on at some length apparently in the same vein.
Where do these stories come from? Admittedly this was in Braintree, which is festooned with Union Jacks and St Georges crosses, and where there's apparently a fund to make sure said 'decorations' are maintained in good condition.
Blanket statements attacking the Greens for wanting to leave NATO are just ignorant.
@DPJHodges
·
33m
To Labour MPs panicking about the Greens. Polanski has broken through because you allowed him to. You broadly supported the Starmer strategy. You sat back when Burnham was blocked. You cheered Starmer when the cabinet rallied round him. Fine. But don't start crying about it now.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2028762473860370862
Reform are definitely at 'shields buckling Captain Nigel'
The question is... is this just an organic process whereby the algorithms encourage outrage, or are actors actively feeding anti-immigrant content into social media? Or both.
What party is fit to govern. Labour can’t govern with a three figure majority.
I can think of one poster, strongly opposed to the Greens, who has a more clear-headed basis for their opposition to the Greens - they don't want to pay lots more tax.
I'm sure a PB.com debate on tax and spending policy would be no less illuminating than this morning's debate, but at least it would have the benefit of being rooted in reality.
Local by-elections show the Lib Dem’s coming second behind Reform, and if they maintain their 2022 vote share, 19%, while the Conservatives and Labour fall below 20%, they as well as Reform will pick up a load of seats.
US under Trump: institutional carnage, yes. Economic disaster? Not really. The US has basically lapped most of the Eurozone on growth and productivity over the last decade.
Hungary under Orbán: corrupt and illiberal, agreed. But again, not an economic crater. Meanwhile the “nice” Eurozone examples you list (Germany/Belgium/Austria etc) have been flirting with stagnation for years.
So sure, argue democracy and corruption. But if you’re going to do the “look at other countries” thing, don’t pretend the growth numbers line up with your moral sorting hat.
They really need to chart their own course from the centre.
Shabana Mahmood seems to be the ONLY Labour figure who understands you can be radical from the centre.
https://x.com/UndisScot/status/2028002546674241776?s=20
ODDLY, my disappointment that this trip never came together in time has somewhat dissipated
It will be the most amusing thing ever if the defecters from the Tories turn out to be the first rats to join a sinking ship.
Not guerillas.
For once they’ve managed to at least manage expectations for the statement.