Skip to content

Always, ALWAYS, check the terms of your bets – politicalbetting.com

12357

Comments

  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 16,800
    Before this weekend sterling 30 year gilt yields were almost nudging below 5% for the first time in ages, and the 10-year has been heading down very rapidly to the low 4s. Interesting to see what the reaction is when markets open tomorrow. Usually you’d expect an inflation shock and yields to jump.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,316
    Surely Labour MPs won't put up with Starmer joining this illegal invasion? At least Blair knew what he was doing albeit it ruined his reputation forever
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,498
    Eabhal said:

    geoffw said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Starmer is tying himself in knots saying it is a defensive move to stop the missiles by allowing the US to use Diego Garcia to bomb the sites in Iran

    It makes logical sense to me - UK allies and interests are being damaged; hit the source of that damage. I actually think Starmer has got it right here so far - the initial strike was damned reckless and we were right not take part; but now it's kicked off we've got to do what we must.

    But I'm aware I'm in a tiny minority sitting between "level Tehran" and "Don't ever get involved in the Middle East again", which much more weight on the latter. Starmer's ratings can't tank because he's nearly bottomed out anyway.
    Except we aren't....""We are not joining these strikes", "we will not join offensive action now"
    You're right. But that makes me curious as to the value of these bases to the Americans. I don't want to go full Leon but are they going to start carpet bombing Tehran with B52s? That's what's based at Fairford.
    iiuc the hallmark of this campaign is precision strikes, not carpet bombing
    Exactly. So why the change now?
    I don't see how the style of a bombing campaign affects the need for bases
    btw "All your bases are belong to us" might be a phrase uttered by Trump before long

  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 989
    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    He’s less Churchill and more IDS.
    IDS had a core. He believed in things. His desire to improve the lot of the working class by minimising their dependence on benefits (or making it easier to wean people off them) was sincere. I remember his roar of triumph as Universal Credit came in.

    Starmer wanted to kill old sick people because Esther Rantzen told him to.
    Utterly puerile comment

    In war situations and in many other matters evolve

    All Governments tweak, amend, develop and have to be flexible to change.

    Churchill made numerous changes in WW2, it was a strength

    Idiotic right wing journalists use u turn for miniscule to major amendments that are exactly that

    UK policy ike that of Iran, US, Israel. Everyone is changing

    My disgust is not that he has changed policy but the policy he has changed. I think he's gone the wrong way when he could and should have followed Spain.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,895
    https://x.com/matt_dathan/status/2028229471669526883

    New: From tomorrow, all refugees arriving in Britain will only get temporary status.

    It marks the start of Shabana Mahmood's radical law changes to asylum laws, which she is pressing ahead with despite a mounting backlash from MPs
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,440
    Very good piece by David Wolfson on the legality of the US/Israeli strikes on Iran:

    https://x.com/DXW_KC/status/2028086953476784135

    Other opinions are of course valid.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,834

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    British Trump latest.

    I lost...whine...sniffle...whine...wasn't me...it was others who cheated...whiney, whiney, crying...



    Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    We need a full strategy for saving our democracy

    End mass postal voting
    Clamp down on family voting
    Ban cousin marriage
    Only British citizens can vote
    End Commonwealth voting

    If we do not save our democracy, we will not save our country

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/2028182566591733961

    This is the Trump playbook to a T. Make up claims of voter fraud and "threats to democracy". Reform have been compliaining about the wrong sort of postal voting for years, but have never produced any actual evidence of fraud. Goodwin didn't lose because of Commonwealth citizens voting. I remain lost what role cousin marriages supposedly played in his defeat.

    (Also, Reform have clarified that their policy of only British citizens can vote isn't actually that only British citizens should be able to vote. They want to keep the vote for Irish citizens.)
    FFS, why?

    Ireland went independent well over a century ago.

    Time to end this bullshit.
    I imagine one would have to renegotiate the GFA. It is a silly anomaly that citizens of any territory that once belonged to the British empire should have the right to vote here.
    The Commonwealth issue is subtly differnt to the Ireland issue, in that Irish citizens are not considered 'aliens', and have the same rights as British citizens.

    The former -the Commonwealth issue- is all the more anomolous, in that a British citizen living lawfully in India with a visa has no right to vote there. As far as I am aware, there would be no treaty issues associated with ending the right of Commonwealth citizens to vote, and -simply- if you want to vote... become a British citizen.

    Ireland is harder, because I believe we've enshrined the rights of Irish citiziens in the UK in that agreement. It's probably worth revisiting, but feels less .. urgent. One could probably also find a compomise that fits inside the the spirit of the GFA, perhaps allowing Irish citizens resident in Northern Ireland (or vice versa) to continue to exercise the right to vote, while eliminating from those who are not Northern irish.
    Yes, in Northern Ireland is reasonable, since that allows both sides to effectively claim it while allowing citizens to choose either.

    But in Britain? No, and I don't know of any Treaty issue.

    As far as I know its not reciprocal there either. As far as I know, if I moved to the Republic of Ireland I would not be able to vote. If I am wrong and its reciprocal then fair enough, but if it is not it is well past time to end it.
    As almost always you are wrong.

    British people have the right to reside and vote in the Republic of Ireland.

    https://www.electoralcommission.ie/voter-eligibility/
    OK, if its reciprocal then fair enough.

    Any time I am wrong I am prepared to put my hand up and say so, I said "as far as I know" but did not check it. If it is reciprocal, then that is fair enough, and I am happy to take it back and draw a line under it. I was wrong.

    The rest of the Commonwealth though should lose their votes. It is not reciprocal with them (unless there's any remaining odd exceptions on a case by case basis).

    EDIT: Actually we were both wrong.

    British citizens can vote in General Elections, but can not vote in either Referenda or Presidential Elections. So it is a mix of both, a grey area.
    • Brits can't vote for Irish head of state (President) because Irish can't vote for the British head of state (the Monarch)
    • Brits can't vote for Irish referenda (to change the Irish constitution) because Irish can't vote for British referenda (to change the British constitution)
    Ireland uses referenda to change its constitution. I don't know if there's been a non-Constitution Irish referendum
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,307

    https://x.com/matt_dathan/status/2028229471669526883

    New: From tomorrow, all refugees arriving in Britain will only get temporary status.

    It marks the start of Shabana Mahmood's radical law changes to asylum laws, which she is pressing ahead with despite a mounting backlash from MPs

    Does this include oakshott, a refugee from Dubai?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,895
    https://x.com/PlatoonPod/status/2028221240411103234

    Summing up the British approach to Iran here:

    1) US asks to use British bases, we say no.

    2) Tell everyone we weren't involved and hope they leave us alone.

    3) oh dear, they didn't leave us alone. They're shooting missiles at us.

    4) claim that the only way to stop this and protect British citizens is to destroy the missiles at source.

    5) allow the Americans to use our bases to destroy the missiles at source.

    6) refuse to help destroy the missiles at source, even though we just said destroying them at source is the only way to end the threat to British citizens.

    7) tell everyone we're not involved and hope they'll leave us alone.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,173

    https://x.com/PlatoonPod/status/2028221240411103234

    Summing up the British approach to Iran here:

    1) US asks to use British bases, we say no.

    2) Tell everyone we weren't involved and hope they leave us alone.

    3) oh dear, they didn't leave us alone. They're shooting missiles at us.

    4) claim that the only way to stop this and protect British citizens is to destroy the missiles at source.

    5) allow the Americans to use our bases to destroy the missiles at source.

    6) refuse to help destroy the missiles at source, even though we just said destroying them at source is the only way to end the threat to British citizens.

    7) tell everyone we're not involved and hope they'll leave us alone.

    Neville Chamberlain getting some competition.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,981
    Eabhal said:

    Starmer is tying himself in knots saying it is a defensive move to stop the missiles by allowing the US to use Diego Garcia to bomb the sites in Iran

    It makes logical sense to me - UK allies and interests are being damaged; hit the source of that damage. I actually think Starmer has got it right here so far - the initial strike was damned reckless and we were right not take part; but now it's kicked off we've got to do what we must.

    But I'm aware I'm in a tiny minority sitting between "level Tehran" and "Don't ever get involved in the Middle East again", which much more weight on the latter. Starmer's ratings can't tank because he's nearly bottomed out anyway.
    You have the correct interpretation. Two things can be true: it was stupid and illegal for the United States to bomb another country unprovoked and kill its head of state; it is legal and may be necessary to respond to attacks on your own country where you haven't been involved in the original actions against the attacking country.

    The distinction shouldn't be hard to understand.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,173
    edited March 1
    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Starmer is tying himself in knots saying it is a defensive move to stop the missiles by allowing the US to use Diego Garcia to bomb the sites in Iran

    It makes logical sense to me - UK allies and interests are being damaged; hit the source of that damage. I actually think Starmer has got it right here so far - the initial strike was damned reckless and we were right not take part; but now it's kicked off we've got to do what we must.

    But I'm aware I'm in a tiny minority sitting between "level Tehran" and "Don't ever get involved in the Middle East again", which much more weight on the latter. Starmer's ratings can't tank because he's nearly bottomed out anyway.
    You have the correct interpretation. Two things can be true: it was stupid and illegal for the United States to bomb another country unprovoked and kill its head of state; it is legal and may be necessary to respond to attacks on your own country where you haven't been involved in the original actions against the attacking country.

    The distinction shouldn't be hard to understand.
    Except the UK isn't doing that.
  • https://x.com/matt_dathan/status/2028229471669526883

    New: From tomorrow, all refugees arriving in Britain will only get temporary status.

    It marks the start of Shabana Mahmood's radical law changes to asylum laws, which she is pressing ahead with despite a mounting backlash from MPs

    Does this include oakshott, a refugee from Dubai?
    When people say Labour needs to be radical, this is what they mean.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,615
    IanB2 said:

    So, we’re on the slippery slope already.

    Winter Olympics was last week.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,780
    I'm starting to think I've overestimated Starmer, maybe Truss isn't the worst PM in living memory?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,031
    PaulM said:

    Roger said:

    Surely Labour MPs won't put up with Starmer joining this illegal invasion? At least Blair knew what he was doing albeit it ruined his reputation forever

    If Iran has deliberately targeted an RAF base in Cyprus then the legal side becomes pretty straightforward.
    Indeed, and draws in the entirety of NATO
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,173
    glw said:

    I'm starting to think I've overestimated Starmer, maybe Truss isn't the worst PM in living memory?

    Steady on now....
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,031
    edited March 1
    glw said:

    I'm starting to think I've overestimated Starmer, maybe Truss isn't the worst PM in living memory?

    Starmer is several degrees worse
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,442
    Starmer is being impressive at the moment imo with regard to his support for the American and Israeli action.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,780

    glw said:

    I'm starting to think I've overestimated Starmer, maybe Truss isn't the worst PM in living memory?

    Starmer is several degrees worse
    I wonder if he's a bloody nightmare when ordering in a restaurant?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,173
    edited March 1
    Andy_JS said:

    Starmer is being impressive at the moment imo with regard to his support for the American and Israeli action.

    What support has he actually offered? Access to two airbases (finally), but only if they pinky promise they are for defensive actions only. And not the British base closest to Iran. And the UK will not actually do any strikes in Iran themselves.

    Its not one nor the other.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,615
    Holyrood Voting Intention:

    Const:
    SNP: 34% (+2)
    RFM: 18% (+1)
    LAB: 14% (-6)
    GRN: 11% (+2)
    CON: 10% (=)
    LDM: 10% (=)

    Reg:
    SNP: 28% (-1)
    RFM: 19% (+1)
    GRN: 16% (+6)
    LAB: 14% (-7)
    CON: 10% (=)
    LDM: 10% (=)
    ALBA: 1% (-2)

    Via YouGov / Scottish Elections Study, 11-18 Feb.
    Changes w/ 13-19 Jun.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,124
    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer gives permission for the US to use Fairford and Diego Garcia bases

    Thats it.

    He's gone.

    Get Ange and Emily in.

    It’s Extreme Right Wing Hyper Fascist Racist Imperialism to use Keith Starmer’s own words to imply anything about Keith Starmer’s actions.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,112

    PaulM said:

    Roger said:

    Surely Labour MPs won't put up with Starmer joining this illegal invasion? At least Blair knew what he was doing albeit it ruined his reputation forever

    If Iran has deliberately targeted an RAF base in Cyprus then the legal side becomes pretty straightforward.
    Indeed, and draws in the entirety of NATO
    It might come as a surprise but Cyprus isn’t in NATO . Turkey refuse to let them join .
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,615
    Seat Model:

    SNP: 55 (-9)
    RFM: 22 (+22)
    GRN: 18 (+10)
    LAB: 14 (-8)
    LDM: 11 (+7)
    CON: 9 (-22)

    Changes w/ 2021.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,043
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    British Trump latest.

    I lost...whine...sniffle...whine...wasn't me...it was others who cheated...whiney, whiney, crying...



    Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    We need a full strategy for saving our democracy

    End mass postal voting
    Clamp down on family voting
    Ban cousin marriage
    Only British citizens can vote
    End Commonwealth voting

    If we do not save our democracy, we will not save our country

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/2028182566591733961

    This is the Trump playbook to a T. Make up claims of voter fraud and "threats to democracy". Reform have been compliaining about the wrong sort of postal voting for years, but have never produced any actual evidence of fraud. Goodwin didn't lose because of Commonwealth citizens voting. I remain lost what role cousin marriages supposedly played in his defeat.

    (Also, Reform have clarified that their policy of only British citizens can vote isn't actually that only British citizens should be able to vote. They want to keep the vote for Irish citizens.)
    FFS, why?

    Ireland went independent well over a century ago.

    Time to end this bullshit.
    I imagine one would have to renegotiate the GFA. It is a silly anomaly that citizens of any territory that once belonged to the British empire should have the right to vote here.
    The Commonwealth issue is subtly differnt to the Ireland issue, in that Irish citizens are not considered 'aliens', and have the same rights as British citizens.

    The former -the Commonwealth issue- is all the more anomolous, in that a British citizen living lawfully in India with a visa has no right to vote there. As far as I am aware, there would be no treaty issues associated with ending the right of Commonwealth citizens to vote, and -simply- if you want to vote... become a British citizen.

    Ireland is harder, because I believe we've enshrined the rights of Irish citiziens in the UK in that agreement. It's probably worth revisiting, but feels less .. urgent. One could probably also find a compomise that fits inside the the spirit of the GFA, perhaps allowing Irish citizens resident in Northern Ireland (or vice versa) to continue to exercise the right to vote, while eliminating from those who are not Northern irish.
    Yes, in Northern Ireland is reasonable, since that allows both sides to effectively claim it while allowing citizens to choose either.

    But in Britain? No, and I don't know of any Treaty issue.

    As far as I know its not reciprocal there either. As far as I know, if I moved to the Republic of Ireland I would not be able to vote. If I am wrong and its reciprocal then fair enough, but if it is not it is well past time to end it.
    As almost always you are wrong.

    British people have the right to reside and vote in the Republic of Ireland.

    https://www.electoralcommission.ie/voter-eligibility/
    OK, if its reciprocal then fair enough.

    Any time I am wrong I am prepared to put my hand up and say so, I said "as far as I know" but did not check it. If it is reciprocal, then that is fair enough, and I am happy to take it back and draw a line under it. I was wrong.

    The rest of the Commonwealth though should lose their votes. It is not reciprocal with them (unless there's any remaining odd exceptions on a case by case basis).

    EDIT: Actually we were both wrong.

    British citizens can vote in General Elections, but can not vote in either Referenda or Presidential Elections. So it is a mix of both, a grey area.
    • Brits can't vote for Irish head of state (President) because Irish can't vote for the British head of state (the Monarch)
    • Brits can't vote for Irish referenda (to change the Irish constitution) because Irish can't vote for British referenda (to change the British constitution)
    Ireland uses referenda to change its constitution. I don't know if there's been a non-Constitution Irish referendum
    Personally I think we should end the arrangement completely. Britons should not be able to vote in Irish national.elections and the Irish shoukd not be able to vote in British national elections.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,215

    Eabhal said:

    Starmer is tying himself in knots saying it is a defensive move to stop the missiles by allowing the US to use Diego Garcia to bomb the sites in Iran

    It makes logical sense to me - UK allies and interests are being damaged; hit the source of that damage. I actually think Starmer has got it right here so far - the initial strike was damned reckless and we right not take part; but now it's kicked off we've got to do what we must.

    But I'm aware I'm in a tiny minority sitting between "level Tehran" and "Don't ever get involved in the Middle East again", which much more weight on the latter. Starmer's ratings can't tank because he's nearly bottomed out anyway.
    No, Carney had it right, the initial strikes were fully justified and should be fully supported.

    To be fair though, the Americans can hardly complain about allies being late to the fight.
    Justified is a defensible opinion, legal they were not. I realise this doesn't matter one iota in a world where 'might is right' and 'us v them' is now openly celebrated, but excuse me for not joining the chorus on that. Progress is the norm in most fields of human endeavour but in this one, international relations between people and countries, we are regressing.

    Kinabalu
    NW3
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,466
    I’m really starting to despise Starmer. He’s just so feeble. I’d rather have Rayner even though she is more left wing as at least she has a bit of a grit about her.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,124
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Starmer is tying himself in knots saying it is a defensive move to stop the missiles by allowing the US to use Diego Garcia to bomb the sites in Iran

    It makes logical sense to me - UK allies and interests are being damaged; hit the source of that damage. I actually think Starmer has got it right here so far - the initial strike was damned reckless and we were right not take part; but now it's kicked off we've got to do what we must.

    But I'm aware I'm in a tiny minority sitting between "level Tehran" and "Don't ever get involved in the Middle East again", which much more weight on the latter. Starmer's ratings can't tank because he's nearly bottomed out anyway.
    Except we aren't....""We are not joining these strikes", "we will not join offensive action now"
    You're right. But that makes me curious as to the value of these bases to the Americans. I don't want to go full Leon but are they going to start carpet bombing Tehran with B52s? That's what's based at Fairford.
    B52s switched over to mass dropping precision munitions and missiles many years ago. The days of intevolmetering x hundred 500lbrs are long, long gone.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,031
    nico67 said:

    PaulM said:

    Roger said:

    Surely Labour MPs won't put up with Starmer joining this illegal invasion? At least Blair knew what he was doing albeit it ruined his reputation forever

    If Iran has deliberately targeted an RAF base in Cyprus then the legal side becomes pretty straightforward.
    Indeed, and draws in the entirety of NATO
    It might come as a surprise but Cyprus isn’t in NATO . Turkey refuse to let them join .
    Akrotiri is sovereign British territory. The UK very much is
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,112

    nico67 said:

    PaulM said:

    Roger said:

    Surely Labour MPs won't put up with Starmer joining this illegal invasion? At least Blair knew what he was doing albeit it ruined his reputation forever

    If Iran has deliberately targeted an RAF base in Cyprus then the legal side becomes pretty straightforward.
    Indeed, and draws in the entirety of NATO
    It might come as a surprise but Cyprus isn’t in NATO . Turkey refuse to let them join .
    But isn't the base British sovereign territory?
    Oh yes ! How would this differ though from US bases in the Middle East . Are they just leased and not classed as US soil ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,143
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @paulbrand.bsky.social‬

    BREAKING: Keir Starmer says the U.K. has given the US permission to use British bases to launch strikes on Iran

    weak, weak, weak....

    Did he genuinely think that "staying out of it" would work? Given past UK actions, the likes of Iran will still see the UK as part of the evil empire.

    He is arguing it is "defensive" not "offensive", so that is the difference now. Pin head dancing.
    My Persian friends here in LA tell me there is an old saying there:

    "if you stub your toe on a rock, you can be sure an Englishman left it there"

    They also tell me that the regime calls the US "the great Satan", and the UK "the little Satan".

    Candidly, I'm insulted.
    Israel is the Little Satan, shirley.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,834

    nico67 said:

    PaulM said:

    Roger said:

    Surely Labour MPs won't put up with Starmer joining this illegal invasion? At least Blair knew what he was doing albeit it ruined his reputation forever

    If Iran has deliberately targeted an RAF base in Cyprus then the legal side becomes pretty straightforward.
    Indeed, and draws in the entirety of NATO
    It might come as a surprise but Cyprus isn’t in NATO . Turkey refuse to let them join .
    Akrotiri is sovereign British territory. The UK very much is
    Indeed. The combined Sovereign Base Areas of Akrotiri and Dhekelia (SBA), is a British Overseas Territory. A very small one admittedly, but sovereign British territory neverthless.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akrotiri_and_Dhekelia
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,031
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    PaulM said:

    Roger said:

    Surely Labour MPs won't put up with Starmer joining this illegal invasion? At least Blair knew what he was doing albeit it ruined his reputation forever

    If Iran has deliberately targeted an RAF base in Cyprus then the legal side becomes pretty straightforward.
    Indeed, and draws in the entirety of NATO
    It might come as a surprise but Cyprus isn’t in NATO . Turkey refuse to let them join .
    But isn't the base British sovereign territory?
    Oh yes ! How would this differ though from US bases in the Middle East . Are they just leased and not classed as US soil ?
    Article V doesnt apply outside Europe/North America

    The ME bases are leased though, yes
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,143
    nico67 said:

    PaulM said:

    Roger said:

    Surely Labour MPs won't put up with Starmer joining this illegal invasion? At least Blair knew what he was doing albeit it ruined his reputation forever

    If Iran has deliberately targeted an RAF base in Cyprus then the legal side becomes pretty straightforward.
    Indeed, and draws in the entirety of NATO
    It might come as a surprise but Cyprus isn’t in NATO . Turkey refuse to let them join .
    Turkey's illegally occupying the northern half of Cyprus!
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,470
    This is the point where the opponent gets their right of reply. Have no doubt the Iranian regime had a shitty first day but they are trying to reorganise,. not wholly succesfully so far but its better than it was yesterday.

    They have said no to a ceasefire and will keep plugging away for now. The US was hoping for a pause point but it isnt happening so expect the air work to intensify from them. The Israelis on the other hand are flat out already knowing they have limited time in case Trump pulls the rug.

    I've pointed out in posts in te recent days that it will be interesting to see if the Iranian missile response peters out after 2-3 days. They have other tools in the bag but a dramatic reduction of Iranian distance attack really does ease the issues for everyone else in this shooting match. As much as 24 hour media makes everything a big deal, in a full on conflict, the Iranian response so far hasn't been great or really effective in military terms.

    The other thing I have mentioned is that the US military have prepared for weeks of conflict. The weight of that and indeed the Israelis in conventional conflict is just way too much for Iran in conventional warfare terms.

    As regards the Brits stuck, largely in the UAE. Tourists evac yes, when you can.. Residents there, they can fuck off and wait in-situ

    One other point, The Iranians havent really tried hard to shut the Straits of Hormuz or maybe they have and just plain can't but lets go with havent really tried hard. If that is so, the reason might be simple. the GCC will then deploy to attack Iranian assets. and thats just another headache.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,981

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Starmer is tying himself in knots saying it is a defensive move to stop the missiles by allowing the US to use Diego Garcia to bomb the sites in Iran

    It makes logical sense to me - UK allies and interests are being damaged; hit the source of that damage. I actually think Starmer has got it right here so far - the initial strike was damned reckless and we were right not take part; but now it's kicked off we've got to do what we must.

    But I'm aware I'm in a tiny minority sitting between "level Tehran" and "Don't ever get involved in the Middle East again", which much more weight on the latter. Starmer's ratings can't tank because he's nearly bottomed out anyway.
    You have the correct interpretation. Two things can be true: it was stupid and illegal for the United States to bomb another country unprovoked and kill its head of state; it is legal and may be necessary to respond to attacks on your own country where you haven't been involved in the original actions against the attacking country.

    The distinction shouldn't be hard to understand.
    Except the UK isn't doing that.
    As I was saying.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/summary-of-the-uk-government-legal-position-the-legality-of-defensive-action-in-respect-of-iranian-regional-attacks
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 618
    Just as Blair was (rightly or wrongly) despised for taking us into a war in Iraq, it loolks like Starmer is going to be despised for not taking us into a war in Iran. Or, perhaps, for joining too late. or joining in by accident.

    One thing is for sure - whatever the outcome, whatever the reason, and whatever the cause, Starmer will be blamed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,173
    edited March 1
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Starmer is tying himself in knots saying it is a defensive move to stop the missiles by allowing the US to use Diego Garcia to bomb the sites in Iran

    It makes logical sense to me - UK allies and interests are being damaged; hit the source of that damage. I actually think Starmer has got it right here so far - the initial strike was damned reckless and we were right not take part; but now it's kicked off we've got to do what we must.

    But I'm aware I'm in a tiny minority sitting between "level Tehran" and "Don't ever get involved in the Middle East again", which much more weight on the latter. Starmer's ratings can't tank because he's nearly bottomed out anyway.
    You have the correct interpretation. Two things can be true: it was stupid and illegal for the United States to bomb another country unprovoked and kill its head of state; it is legal and may be necessary to respond to attacks on your own country where you haven't been involved in the original actions against the attacking country.

    The distinction shouldn't be hard to understand.
    Except the UK isn't doing that.
    As I was saying.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/summary-of-the-uk-government-legal-position-the-legality-of-defensive-action-in-respect-of-iranian-regional-attacks
    As I was saying.

    The UK aren't responding, they are allowing the US, if they pinky promise that they are only attacking for ultimately defensive purposes.

    Starmer made it very clear, learned from Iraq, we aren't getting involved in attacking anybody in response.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,516
    I hope we are going to prioritise tourists over residents when evacuating.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,124

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @paulbrand.bsky.social‬

    BREAKING: Keir Starmer says the U.K. has given the US permission to use British bases to launch strikes on Iran

    weak, weak, weak....

    Did he genuinely think that "staying out of it" would work? Given past UK actions, the likes of Iran will still see the UK as part of the evil empire.

    He is arguing it is "defensive" not "offensive", so that is the difference now. Pin head dancing.
    My Persian friends here in LA tell me there is an old saying there:

    "if you stub your toe on a rock, you can be sure an Englishman left it there"

    They also tell me that the regime calls the US "the great Satan", and the UK "the little Satan".

    Candidly, I'm insulted.
    Israel is the Little Satan, shirley.
    Nope

    The US/UK/Great/Little Satan thing was one of Khomeni’s signature pieces from his death-by-boredom speeches in the 80s.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,466
    My first ever PB header was on Iran

    https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/09/24/persepolis-now-looking-at-the-future-of-iran/

    I never even considered that Khamenei might be assassinated - Iranian regime felt a lot more solid when I wrote this.

    Hard to know who will become next supreme leader when the US and Israel can influence it with targeted assassinations. Don’t even know if Mojtaba Khamenei is still alive
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,124

    Just as Blair was (rightly or wrongly) despised for taking us into a war in Iraq, it loolks like Starmer is going to be despised for not taking us into a war in Iran. Or, perhaps, for joining too late. or joining in by accident.

    One thing is for sure - whatever the outcome, whatever the reason, and whatever the cause, Starmer will be blamed.

    What Gordon Britas seems to have political genius for is this - give him an issue and he can get despised by everyone on every side of that issue.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,981

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Starmer is tying himself in knots saying it is a defensive move to stop the missiles by allowing the US to use Diego Garcia to bomb the sites in Iran

    It makes logical sense to me - UK allies and interests are being damaged; hit the source of that damage. I actually think Starmer has got it right here so far - the initial strike was damned reckless and we were right not take part; but now it's kicked off we've got to do what we must.

    But I'm aware I'm in a tiny minority sitting between "level Tehran" and "Don't ever get involved in the Middle East again", which much more weight on the latter. Starmer's ratings can't tank because he's nearly bottomed out anyway.
    You have the correct interpretation. Two things can be true: it was stupid and illegal for the United States to bomb another country unprovoked and kill its head of state; it is legal and may be necessary to respond to attacks on your own country where you haven't been involved in the original actions against the attacking country.

    The distinction shouldn't be hard to understand.
    Except the UK isn't doing that.
    As I was saying.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/summary-of-the-uk-government-legal-position-the-legality-of-defensive-action-in-respect-of-iranian-regional-attacks
    As I was saying.

    The UK aren't responding, they are allowing the US, if they pinky promise that they are only attacking for ultimately defensive purposes.

    Starmer made it very clear, learned from Iraq, we aren't getting involved in attacking anybody in response.
    The legal advice is specific. UK bases can only be used to attack Iranian facilities previously used for missile attacks on third parties.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,895

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Starmer is tying himself in knots saying it is a defensive move to stop the missiles by allowing the US to use Diego Garcia to bomb the sites in Iran

    It makes logical sense to me - UK allies and interests are being damaged; hit the source of that damage. I actually think Starmer has got it right here so far - the initial strike was damned reckless and we were right not take part; but now it's kicked off we've got to do what we must.

    But I'm aware I'm in a tiny minority sitting between "level Tehran" and "Don't ever get involved in the Middle East again", which much more weight on the latter. Starmer's ratings can't tank because he's nearly bottomed out anyway.
    You have the correct interpretation. Two things can be true: it was stupid and illegal for the United States to bomb another country unprovoked and kill its head of state; it is legal and may be necessary to respond to attacks on your own country where you haven't been involved in the original actions against the attacking country.

    The distinction shouldn't be hard to understand.
    Except the UK isn't doing that.
    As I was saying.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/summary-of-the-uk-government-legal-position-the-legality-of-defensive-action-in-respect-of-iranian-regional-attacks
    As I was saying.

    The UK aren't responding, they are allowing the US, if they pinky promise that they are only attacking for ultimately defensive purposes.

    Starmer made it very clear, learned from Iraq, we aren't getting involved in attacking anybody in response.
    Starmer's version of learning the lessons from Iraq is purely domestic and procedural.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,112

    nico67 said:

    PaulM said:

    Roger said:

    Surely Labour MPs won't put up with Starmer joining this illegal invasion? At least Blair knew what he was doing albeit it ruined his reputation forever

    If Iran has deliberately targeted an RAF base in Cyprus then the legal side becomes pretty straightforward.
    Indeed, and draws in the entirety of NATO
    It might come as a surprise but Cyprus isn’t in NATO . Turkey refuse to let them join .
    Turkey's illegally occupying the northern half of Cyprus!
    Yes that’s why they won’t let Cyprus into NATO. Sadly there’s no sign of any deal to unify the island .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,173
    edited March 1
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Starmer is tying himself in knots saying it is a defensive move to stop the missiles by allowing the US to use Diego Garcia to bomb the sites in Iran

    It makes logical sense to me - UK allies and interests are being damaged; hit the source of that damage. I actually think Starmer has got it right here so far - the initial strike was damned reckless and we were right not take part; but now it's kicked off we've got to do what we must.

    But I'm aware I'm in a tiny minority sitting between "level Tehran" and "Don't ever get involved in the Middle East again", which much more weight on the latter. Starmer's ratings can't tank because he's nearly bottomed out anyway.
    You have the correct interpretation. Two things can be true: it was stupid and illegal for the United States to bomb another country unprovoked and kill its head of state; it is legal and may be necessary to respond to attacks on your own country where you haven't been involved in the original actions against the attacking country.

    The distinction shouldn't be hard to understand.
    Except the UK isn't doing that.
    As I was saying.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/summary-of-the-uk-government-legal-position-the-legality-of-defensive-action-in-respect-of-iranian-regional-attacks
    As I was saying.

    The UK aren't responding, they are allowing the US, if they pinky promise that they are only attacking for ultimately defensive purposes.

    Starmer made it very clear, learned from Iraq, we aren't getting involved in attacking anybody in response.
    The legal advice is specific. UK bases can only be used to attack Iranian facilities previously used for missile attacks on third parties.
    And as I said, we aren't responding. He has picked the worst of all options, we are in by letting the US use two bases (not the most useful one), but not really helping the Americans by putting all these conditions on usage, but at the same time we are not in nor standing up for ourselves.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,873
    edited March 1
    Its all madness and getting worse. The ME is aflame and who is putting it out?

    > Hormuz is blockaded with tankers aflame
    > All the airports are shutdown and the Iranians will make sure they stay that way
    > Bases in Iraq, Qatar, Syria. Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait have been hit and continue to be hit
    > Israel is being hit consistently, every few hours more get through
    > Missiles are bing fired at USN ships, French bases, ABM radars
    > God know what’s happening in Iran with reports of mass casualties in mill bases, bombings of hospitals and 2000+ targets struck
    > Hezbollah have started shooting again

    I don't think this is ending in a week, its an actual war and people seem to be treating it like a SMO. UK forces should be nowhere near this.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,316

    Very good piece by David Wolfson on the legality of the US/Israeli strikes on Iran:

    https://x.com/DXW_KC/status/2028086953476784135

    Other opinions are of course valid.

    He's an arch Zionist. He has more loyalty to Israel than he does to the US. As a legal opinion ignore.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,173
    edited March 1
    Roger said:

    Very good piece by David Wolfson on the legality of the US/Israeli strikes on Iran:

    https://x.com/DXW_KC/status/2028086953476784135

    Other opinions are of course valid.

    He's an arch Zionist. He has more loyalty to Israel than he does to the US. As a legal opinion ignore.
    5 minutes ago you were asking us to listen to a podcast with the man deemed the mouthpiece of the Iran Regime abroad.....
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,470
    There was a lot of weight leaned on HMG by the Gulf states in the last 24 hours. The decision to allow use of UK bases has marginal impact as the US planned without them anyway. Cyprus is handy for air patrol over Jordan and Israel if the US chose to station there and handy for refuelling and US facilities in the UK are already in active use as part of this conflict.

    That decision, however, should be seen the in context of the rather negative feedback received from the Gulf states and less about the US leaning on London.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,173
    edited March 1
    Yokes said:

    There was a lot of weight leaned on HMG by the Gulf states in the last 24 hours. The decision to allow use of UK bases has marginal impact as the US planned without them anyway. Cyprus is handy for air patrol over Jordan and Israel if the US chose to station there and handy for refuelling and US facilities in the UK are already in active use as part of this conflict.

    That decision, however, should be seen the in context of the rather negative feedback received from the Gulf states and less about the US leaning on London.

    Starmer said only Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford bases to be used by the US.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,112
    edited March 1
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,316

    Roger said:

    Very good piece by David Wolfson on the legality of the US/Israeli strikes on Iran:

    https://x.com/DXW_KC/status/2028086953476784135

    Other opinions are of course valid.

    He's an arch Zionist. He has more loyalty to Israel than he does to the US. As a legal opinion ignore.
    5 minutes ago you were asking us to listen to a podcast with the man deemed the mouthpiece of the Iran Regime abroad.....
    The advice is ludicrous. At face value you could attack any country you deemed not to be to your taste. It needen't even have anything to do with you.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,031
    edited March 1
    Has Starmer thought about providing Breakfast Clubs for the US snd Israeli forces?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,847
    X is reporting that the new supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Forget-him-alredi has already been eliminated
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,470

    Yokes said:

    There was a lot of weight leaned on HMG by the Gulf states in the last 24 hours. The decision to allow use of UK bases has marginal impact as the US planned without them anyway. Cyprus is handy for air patrol over Jordan and Israel if the US chose to station there and handy for refuelling and US facilities in the UK are already in active use as part of this conflict.

    That decision, however, should be seen the in context of the rather negative feedback received from the Gulf states and less about the US leaning on London.

    Starmer said only Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford bases to be used by the US.
    That doesnt quite stack up though. Fairford is already in use, let no one tell you otherwise. The difference is the possibility of ferrying of the strategic bombers to operate from such locations which no one can miss but they aren't defensive. Exactly what 'defensive' forces would position in either of those airfields thousands of miles from the theater, I have no idea. Diego Garcia is further away than a large number of facilities the US is using in Europe. It isnt going to be air defence aircraft, it isnt going to be anti air missiles is it? So what exactly are those bases being used for?

    For defensive purposes, Cyprus is most useful
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,895
    Some suggestions that the drone that hit Cyprus came from Lebanon.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2028247973721739638
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,426
    Ed Davey
    @EdwardJDavey
    ·
    43m
    No matter how the Prime Minister tries to redefine offensive as defensive, this is a slippery slope. He must not let Trump drag Britain into another prolonged war in the Middle East.

    Starmer must come to Parliament tomorrow, set out the legal case in full, and give MPs a vote.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/2028242346219856039
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,375
    I realise now that Trump was not saying "Board of Peace", he was saying that he's "bored of peace".
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,470

    Its all madness and getting worse. The ME is aflame and who is putting it out?

    > Hormuz is blockaded with tankers aflame
    > All the airports are shutdown and the Iranians will make sure they stay that way
    > Bases in Iraq, Qatar, Syria. Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait have been hit and continue to be hit
    > Israel is being hit consistently, every few hours more get through
    > Missiles are bing fired at USN ships, French bases, ABM radars
    > God know what’s happening in Iran with reports of mass casualties in mill bases, bombings of hospitals and 2000+ targets struck
    > Hezbollah have started shooting again

    I don't think this is ending in a week, its an actual war and people seem to be treating it like a SMO. UK forces should be nowhere near this.

    And which of these was unexpected?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,173
    edited March 1
    Yokes said:

    Yokes said:

    There was a lot of weight leaned on HMG by the Gulf states in the last 24 hours. The decision to allow use of UK bases has marginal impact as the US planned without them anyway. Cyprus is handy for air patrol over Jordan and Israel if the US chose to station there and handy for refuelling and US facilities in the UK are already in active use as part of this conflict.

    That decision, however, should be seen the in context of the rather negative feedback received from the Gulf states and less about the US leaning on London.

    Starmer said only Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford bases to be used by the US.
    That doesnt quite stack up though. Fairford is already in use, let no one tell you otherwise. The difference is the possibility of ferrying of the strategic bombers to operate from such locations which no one can miss but they aren't defensive. Exactly what 'defensive' forces would position in either of those airfields thousands of miles from the theater, I have no idea. Diego Garcia is further away than a large number of facilities the US is using in Europe. It isnt going to be air defence aircraft, it isnt going to be anti air missiles is it? So what exactly are those bases being used for?

    For defensive purposes, Cyprus is most useful
    It might not stack up from a military perspective, but Starmer and Hermer are trying to ride the "we only do things by international law" / "we don't want another Iraq", while appearing to do something. Or they are bloody useless and briefed the media incorrectly. Take your pick.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,112

    Some suggestions that the drone that hit Cyprus came from Lebanon.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2028247973721739638

    That complicates things . If it’s a Hezbollah attack aligned with Iran but not Iran itself what does the UK government do.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 618

    Ed Davey
    @EdwardJDavey
    ·
    43m
    No matter how the Prime Minister tries to redefine offensive as defensive, this is a slippery slope. He must not let Trump drag Britain into another prolonged war in the Middle East.

    Starmer must come to Parliament tomorrow, set out the legal case in full, and give MPs a vote.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/2028242346219856039

    Seems a reasonable thing to ask. Starmer has to at least try to explain what he is trying to do, and how we can measure success.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,426
    rcs1000 said:

    I realise now that Trump was not saying "Board of Peace", he was saying that he's "bored of peace".

    Iran are in the world cup.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,316
    Andy_JS said:

    Starmer is being impressive at the moment imo with regard to his support for the American and Israeli action.

    Because you are a right wing Farage supporter. I don't think your view will be shared by his party or MPs
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,887
    nico67 said:

    Some suggestions that the drone that hit Cyprus came from Lebanon.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2028247973721739638

    That complicates things . If it’s a Hezbollah attack aligned with Iran but not Iran itself what does the UK government do.
    Flap about and not really do anything of consequence?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,173

    rcs1000 said:

    I realise now that Trump was not saying "Board of Peace", he was saying that he's "bored of peace".

    Iran are were in the world cup.

    Fixed for you....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,561
    Roger said:


    Andy_JS said:

    Starmer is being impressive at the moment imo with regard to his support for the American and Israeli action.

    Because you are a right wing Farage supporter. I don't think your view will be shared by his party or MPs
    Your characterisation of Andy may or may not be off, and I'm hardly likely to agree with you on most issues, but I suspect you are closer to being correct about the reaction to Starmer from many Labour MPs than he is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,561
    ohnotnow said:

    nico67 said:

    Some suggestions that the drone that hit Cyprus came from Lebanon.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2028247973721739638

    That complicates things . If it’s a Hezbollah attack aligned with Iran but not Iran itself what does the UK government do.
    Flap about and not really do anything of consequence?
    It's not exactly much of a distinction in any case given the widely accepted interpretation of Hezbollah as Iranian proxies, and the UK already viewing them as a terrorist group, which for decades has been treated as basically allowing anything.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,561
    I am assuming the US told the UK there would be severe consequences if they couldn't use our bases, and given the lunatic in the White House who knows what that might be, so Starmer is trying to dress that diplomatic (perceived) necessity up in more secure and legalistic framing.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,470
    What this conflict should do, though anyone watching Ukraine should have seen it already, is understand that the lowly one way drone is an absolute bollocks to deal with. SHORAD (short range air defences) in all its forms (ground and air) and so often neglected in Western militaries these days is critical.

    Its no secret that Ukrainian experts have been drafted in to give advice , via European allies, to the Gulf states. Problem is you can transfer knowledge of tactics but ya cant just get the weapons designed to provide layered defence in days. That leaves electronic countermeasures given Iranian drones use commercial satnav and occasionally mobile SIMS for guidance and control.

    The launchers are a pain because unlike proper ballistic missiles you can launch these off the back of a flat bed with the appropriate rail kit so targeting is difficult.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,561
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Very good piece by David Wolfson on the legality of the US/Israeli strikes on Iran:

    https://x.com/DXW_KC/status/2028086953476784135

    Other opinions are of course valid.

    He's an arch Zionist. He has more loyalty to Israel than he does to the US. As a legal opinion ignore.
    5 minutes ago you were asking us to listen to a podcast with the man deemed the mouthpiece of the Iran Regime abroad.....
    The advice is ludicrous. At face value you could attack any country you deemed not to be to your taste. It needen't even have anything to do with you.
    Didn't the Obama White House (or possibly Bush) define the words 'imminent threat' in respect of a legal standard to mean there didn't have to be a specific threat, nor did it need to be imminent? Very creative, these legal types.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,771
    I have been laying the Greens most seats to an average of about 10/1, but a controversial war could see them actually do it. They’re 11/2 now, I thought that crazy, but maybe not
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,316
    Some sense from Mamdami. This is going to blow up in Trump's face

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ZlzEdfQArx8
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,561

    Its all madness and getting worse. The ME is aflame and who is putting it out?

    > Hormuz is blockaded with tankers aflame
    > All the airports are shutdown and the Iranians will make sure they stay that way
    > Bases in Iraq, Qatar, Syria. Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait have been hit and continue to be hit
    > Israel is being hit consistently, every few hours more get through
    > Missiles are bing fired at USN ships, French bases, ABM radars
    > God know what’s happening in Iran with reports of mass casualties in mill bases, bombings of hospitals and 2000+ targets struck
    > Hezbollah have started shooting again

    I don't think this is ending in a week, its an actual war and people seem to be treating it like a SMO. UK forces should be nowhere near this.

    Well, we have a base in the general vicinity, but if the PM can keep any involvement to tokenistic (it's about all we have the capability for anyway) then that is probably best.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,561
    Roger said:

    Some sense from Mamdami. This is going to blow up in Trump's face

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ZlzEdfQArx8

    He's lost Mamdani? He is screwed now!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,631
    kle4 said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Very good piece by David Wolfson on the legality of the US/Israeli strikes on Iran:

    https://x.com/DXW_KC/status/2028086953476784135

    Other opinions are of course valid.

    He's an arch Zionist. He has more loyalty to Israel than he does to the US. As a legal opinion ignore.
    5 minutes ago you were asking us to listen to a podcast with the man deemed the mouthpiece of the Iran Regime abroad.....
    The advice is ludicrous. At face value you could attack any country you deemed not to be to your taste. It needen't even have anything to do with you.
    Didn't the Obama White House (or possibly Bush) define the words 'imminent threat' in respect of a legal standard to mean there didn't have to be a specific threat, nor did it need to be imminent? Very creative, these legal types.
    It’s what they are paid for.

    Lawyers are not the guardians of Lord Bingham’s Sacred Flame.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,561
    isam said:

    I have been laying the Greens most seats to an average of about 10/1, but a controversial war could see them actually do it. They’re 11/2 now, I thought that crazy, but maybe not

    They have, to my view, an oversimplified stance on difficult geopolitical issues, but that is the kind of thing most people like, nice and straightforward, and despite the view of many on here the Greens seem to be generally positive regarded by a lot of people, or seen as harmless at any rate, so can easily pick up new voters once they get momentum.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,561

    Scott_xP said:

    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    There are reports of an explosion at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus. Sirens activated at the base and aircraft scrambled.

    Starmer will have to get some new legal advice
    Hopefully that advice is for him to resign. Immediately.
    That'd be political advice and outside the brief I expect. But he can find about 50 Labour MPs to advise it for him.
  • CarrCarr Posts: 1
    edited 12:14AM
    nico67 said:

    PaulM said:

    Roger said:

    Surely Labour MPs won't put up with Starmer joining this illegal invasion? At least Blair knew what he was doing albeit it ruined his reputation forever

    If Iran has deliberately targeted an RAF base in Cyprus then the legal side becomes pretty straightforward.
    Indeed, and draws in the entirety of NATO
    It might come as a surprise but Cyprus isn’t in NATO . Turkey refuse to let them join .
    Britain is in NATO and the bases are sovereign British territory, not leased.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,908

    https://x.com/PlatoonPod/status/2028221240411103234

    Summing up the British approach to Iran here:

    1) US asks to use British bases, we say no.

    2) Tell everyone we weren't involved and hope they leave us alone.

    3) oh dear, they didn't leave us alone. They're shooting missiles at us.

    4) claim that the only way to stop this and protect British citizens is to destroy the missiles at source.

    5) allow the Americans to use our bases to destroy the missiles at source.

    6) refuse to help destroy the missiles at source, even though we just said destroying them at source is the only way to end the threat to British citizens.

    7) tell everyone we're not involved and hope they'll leave us alone.

    Correct approach.

    Britain should stay as far as possible from the mad king's war because nobody knows what the plan is if such a thing exists and even if it does nobody knows whether that will still be the plan tomorrow.

    When attacked as collateral from the said mad king's war the UK response can't really be nothing. But it should be the closest available option to nothing, which is what is described here.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,561

    https://x.com/PlatoonPod/status/2028221240411103234

    Summing up the British approach to Iran here:

    1) US asks to use British bases, we say no.

    2) Tell everyone we weren't involved and hope they leave us alone.

    3) oh dear, they didn't leave us alone. They're shooting missiles at us.

    4) claim that the only way to stop this and protect British citizens is to destroy the missiles at source.

    5) allow the Americans to use our bases to destroy the missiles at source.

    6) refuse to help destroy the missiles at source, even though we just said destroying them at source is the only way to end the threat to British citizens.

    7) tell everyone we're not involved and hope they'll leave us alone.

    Correct approach.

    Britain should stay as far as possible from the mad king's war because nobody knows what the plan is if such a thing exists and even if it does nobody knows whether that will still be the plan tomorrow.

    When attacked as collateral from the said mad king's war the UK response can't really be nothing. But it should be the closest available option to nothing, which is what is described here.
    On the plus side The Madness of King Trump should be one heck of a movie in 30 years. I predict 10 Oscars.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,561
    Leon's head may explode if this pans out

    The history of writing down thoughts and feelings could be tens of thousands of years older than previously believed, surprising archaeologists who made the discovery.

    The researchers discerned patterns of meaning in lines, notches, dots, and crosses on objects like mammoth tusks as old as 45,000 years in caves in Germany.

    Traditionally historians date the first written words to proto-cuneiform scripts made around 5,000 years ago in ancient Iraq, or Mesopotamia.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgknj7yyv2o
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,375
    Carr said:

    nico67 said:

    PaulM said:

    Roger said:

    Surely Labour MPs won't put up with Starmer joining this illegal invasion? At least Blair knew what he was doing albeit it ruined his reputation forever

    If Iran has deliberately targeted an RAF base in Cyprus then the legal side becomes pretty straightforward.
    Indeed, and draws in the entirety of NATO
    It might come as a surprise but Cyprus isn’t in NATO . Turkey refuse to let them join .
    Britain is in NATO and the bases are sovereign British territory, not leased.
    They are therefore the only place in Britain where the Euro, rather than Pound Sterling, is legal tender.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,188

    Yokes said:

    There was a lot of weight leaned on HMG by the Gulf states in the last 24 hours. The decision to allow use of UK bases has marginal impact as the US planned without them anyway. Cyprus is handy for air patrol over Jordan and Israel if the US chose to station there and handy for refuelling and US facilities in the UK are already in active use as part of this conflict.

    That decision, however, should be seen the in context of the rather negative feedback received from the Gulf states and less about the US leaning on London.

    Starmer said only Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford bases to be used by the US.
    Did Starmer say that? Or not mention which bases, and poor journalism mentions those two?
  • PJHPJH Posts: 1,035
    I'm on holiday at the moment and haven't been following this so I'm catching up, but why on earth are we having anything to do with this?

    I can see that if Akrotiri has been attacked then we have a justification for taking action, but if it was in retaliation for 'support' then morally that undermines the case.Once again weak and subservient to a dangerous cretin in the White House. Starmer should go - I hope the Labour Party do the right thing.

    And I say this as someone totally opposed to the Iranian regime. But this doesn't help, there is no plan beyond the USA deciding it's had enough and stopping firing. keep well away.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,426
    2028 latest



    Gideon Rachman
    @gideonrachman

    Interesting that @JDVance still has not tweeted in favour of the Iran war. It’s almost as if he has misgivings about it
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,173
    edited 12:39AM

    Yokes said:

    There was a lot of weight leaned on HMG by the Gulf states in the last 24 hours. The decision to allow use of UK bases has marginal impact as the US planned without them anyway. Cyprus is handy for air patrol over Jordan and Israel if the US chose to station there and handy for refuelling and US facilities in the UK are already in active use as part of this conflict.

    That decision, however, should be seen the in context of the rather negative feedback received from the Gulf states and less about the US leaning on London.

    Starmer said only Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford bases to be used by the US.
    Did Starmer say that? Or not mention which bases, and poor journalism mentions those two?
    All media including the super close to #10 ones are running with this exact statement e.g Pippa Crerar and of course the "BBC Understands"....,

    Keir Starmer has given US permission to use UK bases at RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia to launch “defensive” airstrikes against Iran - and destroy its missiles “at source” to prevent them firing across region.

    i.e. that is what #10 has told all of them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,426
    Essential reading:


    Hermer, a frequent target in the press and often criticised for that very lack of political experience, has now had his moment. Starmer has taken his advice. The prime minister has drawn a distinction between defensive and offensive action, attempted to reassure the British public of the difference and published the legal thinking behind the action: all the while saying explicitly that he does not want a repeat of the mistakes of Iraq. He has also taken an approach of moving in lockstep with the other E3 countries (France and Germany) rather than the US.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2026/03/can-keir-starmer-avoid-the-mistakes-of-iraq
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,173

    Essential reading:


    Hermer, a frequent target in the press and often criticised for that very lack of political experience, has now had his moment. Starmer has taken his advice. The prime minister has drawn a distinction between defensive and offensive action, attempted to reassure the British public of the difference and published the legal thinking behind the action: all the while saying explicitly that he does not want a repeat of the mistakes of Iraq. He has also taken an approach of moving in lockstep with the other E3 countries (France and Germany) rather than the US.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2026/03/can-keir-starmer-avoid-the-mistakes-of-iraq

    Well that article is already out of date...

    How long will the distinction between “defensive” and offensive hold? If Iran strikes British military personnel or British bases in Cypus or elsewhere, Britain could soon find itself dragged in far deeper.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,895
    https://x.com/AzeriTimes/status/2028232960084701640

    Armed rioters attempted to seize the U.S. Consulate in Pakistan. U.S. Marines opened fire, leaving 22 attackers dead.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,173
    edited 12:53AM
    Genuinely shameful. The joke is basically nothing more sophisticated than “people with serious disabilities make it up.” That’s before they compare a disabled man, mocked his entire life, to Bill Cosby. Whole thing deserves to become infamous.

    https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/2028259031924474042?s=20

    Second US tv show to imply that Tourette Syndrome is made up as part of their joke, while going OTT about big and brave those millionaire celebs have been having faced hearing a bad word.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,426
    Aged well.



    Will Hutton
    @williamnhutton
    ·
    14h
    Refusing Trump permission to use British bases in Fairford Gloucestershire, Cyprus and Diego Garcia to mount a unilateral attack on Iran against international law takes some courage. Few mourn the murderous Ali Khamenei. But international law must be kept alive even in dark days

    https://x.com/williamnhutton/status/2028051728742908194
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,188

    Yokes said:

    There was a lot of weight leaned on HMG by the Gulf states in the last 24 hours. The decision to allow use of UK bases has marginal impact as the US planned without them anyway. Cyprus is handy for air patrol over Jordan and Israel if the US chose to station there and handy for refuelling and US facilities in the UK are already in active use as part of this conflict.

    That decision, however, should be seen the in context of the rather negative feedback received from the Gulf states and less about the US leaning on London.

    Starmer said only Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford bases to be used by the US.
    Did Starmer say that? Or not mention which bases, and poor journalism mentions those two?
    All media including the super close to #10 ones are running with this exact statement e.g Pippa Crerar and of course the "BBC Understands"....,

    Keir Starmer has given US permission to use UK bases at RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia to launch “defensive” airstrikes against Iran - and destroy its missiles “at source” to prevent them firing across region.

    i.e. that is what #10 has told all of them.
    There could be reason UK government won’t share with journalists which ones. Journalists could all be “intelligent guessing”. All their “intelligent guessing” could be wrong. Anyhows, the point of this is it’s harder to do the defensive thing on the fireworks whilst they are airbourne, easier to do the defensive thing by blowing them up whilst still in the box, and that idea comes with time pressure - so we can expect to measure activity at Fairfield very soon?
    Or the activity is at a different base.
    No activity at Fairfield could also mean the US didn’t come back asking for this, it’s a unilateral gesture/suggestion from UK government.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,173
    edited 1:06AM

    Yokes said:

    There was a lot of weight leaned on HMG by the Gulf states in the last 24 hours. The decision to allow use of UK bases has marginal impact as the US planned without them anyway. Cyprus is handy for air patrol over Jordan and Israel if the US chose to station there and handy for refuelling and US facilities in the UK are already in active use as part of this conflict.

    That decision, however, should be seen the in context of the rather negative feedback received from the Gulf states and less about the US leaning on London.

    Starmer said only Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford bases to be used by the US.
    Did Starmer say that? Or not mention which bases, and poor journalism mentions those two?
    All media including the super close to #10 ones are running with this exact statement e.g Pippa Crerar and of course the "BBC Understands"....,

    Keir Starmer has given US permission to use UK bases at RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia to launch “defensive” airstrikes against Iran - and destroy its missiles “at source” to prevent them firing across region.

    i.e. that is what #10 has told all of them.
    There could be reason UK government won’t share with journalists which ones. Journalists could all be “intelligent guessing”. All their “intelligent guessing” could be wrong. Anyhows, the point of this is it’s harder to do the defensive thing on the fireworks whilst they are airbourne, easier to do the defensive thing by blowing them up whilst still in the box, and that idea comes with time pressure - so we can expect to measure activity at Fairfield very soon?
    Or the activity is at a different base.
    No activity at Fairfield could also mean the US didn’t come back asking for this, it’s a unilateral gesture/suggestion from UK government.
    If they were guessing, they would surely guess Cyrprus, as that has been used loads of times for missions in the Middle East. Also, they all have the same quote word for word, which says #10 told them this is the case.
Sign In or Register to comment.