Apologies if I missed it, but did we discuss the Daily Mail accusation that the Greens plan a so-called "Migrant Amnesty", with free accommodation and allowance?
GBN was having kittens about it when I was listening in the car yesterday evening.
They had a chap from one of their "independent" "thinktanks" ("Centre for Migration control", founded by a Reform UK activist), and did some out-of-the-arse calculations about the cost (eg Greens would give 800k people a Basic Income of 19k per annum) plus £4 billiojn of NHS costs abracadabra costing £120bn per annum.
They had a Green person on who pointed out that it was BS.
I'm not sure what the appropriate conclusion should be.
As you know, I only watch GB News for, shall we say, "research" purposes, but they quoted a Green spokesperson who defended them and said it was a "popular policy"!
Green policies are of little interest as long as there is no possibility of them forming a government. They need, like Reform have done, to say whatever they think will get them to a more promising place.
Reform might form a government of course. They are treading with great care about what they will actually promise and do. The thing they can carry on doing is attacking everyone else. So they will.
Any thoughts on turnout today? I suspect it will be towards the historically low end of the scale.
A pox on ALL your houses
Turnout is low when people are fed up with the usual choices and have nowhere else to go. However, here we have two none-of-the-above parties competing in the Greens and Reform. I wonder if that will drive turnout high?
Apologies if I missed it, but did we discuss the Daily Mail accusation that the Greens plan a so-called "Migrant Amnesty", with free accommodation and allowance?
GBN was having kittens about it when I was listening in the car yesterday evening.
They had a chap from one of their "independent" "thinktanks" ("Centre for Migration control", founded by a Reform UK activist), and did some out-of-the-arse calculations about the cost (eg Greens would give 800k people a Basic Income of 19k per annum) plus £4 billiojn of NHS costs abracadabra costing £120bn per annum.
They had a Green person on who pointed out that it was BS.
I'm not sure what the appropriate conclusion should be.
As you know, I only watch GB News for, shall we say, "research" purposes, but they quoted a Green spokesperson who defended them and said it was a "popular policy"!
Green policies are of little interest as long as there is no possibility of them forming a government. They need, like Reform have done, to say whatever they think will get them to a more promising place.
Reform might form a government of course. They are treading with great care about what they will actually promise and do. The thing they can carry on doing is attacking everyone else. So they will.
I’m pretty pro general drug liberalisation but the Green policy on this is surely a massive vote loser.
Along with NATO, I just cannot see how their vote doesn’t collapse back to Labour at some point.
If Reform don’t win - even if they aren’t supposed to - I think it blunts their momentum.
Yes. It will be a big blow for them coming in to May. The last big test before it
It suggests that there is a fundamental cap on their support, I’m still not clear what that number is. But it’s I suspect not high enough to win outright.
They say there’s nothing left to be discovered, no more of the world to be explored, no sense of wonder left to the young
Well for just proven that’s total nonsense. After centuries of dispute, when even the brightest scientists have decided the question must be unanswerable, I have just definitively shown that No, you cannot ride an e-bike into the Pacific Ocean
I think we all know that there will always be more to be discoverd , but I think you are being frivolous.
As for "cannot ride an e-bike in the ocean" (short of a marine version), that's up there with "I put my foot in a woodchipper, and somehow it was turned into mince". What happened?
(I wonder if there is a more serious point about reportedly more people being killed in their vehicles when they drive into rivers, and something to do with all our electric windows not working under water. This scenario was in a Frank Cannon fat-man-private-eye episode in about 197x.
If Reform don’t win - even if they aren’t supposed to - I think it blunts their momentum.
Yes. It will be a big blow for them coming in to May. The last big test before it
It suggests that there is a fundamental cap on their support, I’m still not clear what that number is. But it’s I suspect not high enough to win outright.
There's certainly a cap on their support in Gorton!
Apologies if I missed it, but did we discuss the Daily Mail accusation that the Greens plan a so-called "Migrant Amnesty", with free accommodation and allowance?
GBN was having kittens about it when I was listening in the car yesterday evening.
They had a chap from one of their "independent" "thinktanks" ("Centre for Migration control", founded by a Reform UK activist), and did some out-of-the-arse calculations about the cost (eg Greens would give 800k people a Basic Income of 19k per annum) plus £4 billiojn of NHS costs abracadabra costing £120bn per annum.
They had a Green person on who pointed out that it was BS.
I'm not sure what the appropriate conclusion should be.
As you know, I only watch GB News for, shall we say, "research" purposes, but they quoted a Green spokesperson who defended them and said it was a "popular policy"!
It would be popular if people only heard the 'Basic Income £19k pa' and didn't notice it wouldn't be allocated to them.
They say there’s nothing left to be discovered, no more of the world to be explored, no sense of wonder left to the young
Well for just proven that’s total nonsense. After centuries of dispute, when even the brightest scientists have decided the question must be unanswerable, I have just definitively shown that No, you cannot ride an e-bike into the Pacific Ocean
Why not ? It sounds pretty easy to me, if slightly inadvisable.
You can ride into the Pacific Ocean, it's riding out that is more challenging.
Apologies if I missed it, but did we discuss the Daily Mail accusation that the Greens plan a so-called "Migrant Amnesty", with free accommodation and allowance?
GBN was having kittens about it when I was listening in the car yesterday evening.
They had a chap from one of their "independent" "thinktanks" ("Centre for Migration control", founded by a Reform UK activist), and did some out-of-the-arse calculations about the cost (eg Greens would give 800k people a Basic Income of 19k per annum) plus £4 billiojn of NHS costs abracadabra costing £120bn per annum.
They had a Green person on who pointed out that it was BS.
I'm not sure what the appropriate conclusion should be.
As you know, I only watch GB News for, shall we say, "research" purposes, but they quoted a Green spokesperson who defended them and said it was a "popular policy"!
Green policies are of little interest as long as there is no possibility of them forming a government. They need, like Reform have done, to say whatever they think will get them to a more promising place.
Reform might form a government of course. They are treading with great care about what they will actually promise and do. The thing they can carry on doing is attacking everyone else. So they will.
I'll be interested to see how sensible local Green policies from local Government interact with national platform as they develop.
Some time ago I pointed out Matthew Snedker, who was Darlington's first Green councillor in about 2018 because he wanted to be able to walk or cycle his children to school, and was fed up of not being involved in decisions.
Now they have a group of six, and he has just been made Housing and Community spokesperson for GPEW.
Fighting a war on two fronts makes things much more difficult.
The second-worst result for Labour is a Reform win with the Greens second.
Labour absolutely have to finish above the Greens. That's way more important to Labour than whether Reborn elect another MP.
I think I heard one of the talking heads on Sky say that losing to the Greens would be better than losing to Reform, but I agree with Sandy that the last thing Labour needs is the Greens finishing above them.
The only thing I would say is that the Greens winning would give them a big boost in terms of publicity. Reform can always say that the seat was challenging and that realistically their only hope was a split Labour-Green vote.
If Labour fall behind the Greens then their tactical voting argument is shot to ribbons. That's fine with the Lib Dems, who are confined to ~100 mostly naturally Tory constituencies. But the Greens threaten Labour's safest seats in the cities.
They say there’s nothing left to be discovered, no more of the world to be explored, no sense of wonder left to the young
Well for just proven that’s total nonsense. After centuries of dispute, when even the brightest scientists have decided the question must be unanswerable, I have just definitively shown that No, you cannot ride an e-bike into the Pacific Ocean
Why not ? It sounds pretty easy to me, if slightly inadvisable.
You can ride into the Pacific Ocean, it's riding out that is more challenging.
If Reform don’t win - even if they aren’t supposed to - I think it blunts their momentum.
Conversely, if Reform *do* win, in a very safe seat, it means no Labour seat is safe in a by-election.
That’s correct. If Reform win then they’re heavy favourites for me.
And I’m down £50.
It could be a bit of a turning point, win or lose. Among the entire anorak/media/wonk/political community Matt Goodwin is well known, and the only well known Reform 'intellectual' - though IMO he has trashed what was a decent reputation. I think it is fairly clear that he was run on the basis that Reform would win.
What would a “good” result for Labour be in this by-election, as percentage of the vote?
Anything where they win.
A few anoraks will discuss vote share, but about 90% of the immediate news stories will be about the winner.
Sure, the columnists will project results - “a vote collapse in Labour’s 6th safest seat” etc. But that won’t impinge on the non-political world out there.
If the polling rather than the betting markets is the truer indicator today, then we will likely see a recount and the winner by a matter of tens of votes. It could split effectively evenly across green/lab/ref.
Fighting a war on two fronts makes things much more difficult.
The second-worst result for Labour is a Reform win with the Greens second.
Labour absolutely have to finish above the Greens. That's way more important to Labour than whether Reborn elect another MP.
I think I heard one of the talking heads on Sky say that losing to the Greens would be better than losing to Reform, but I agree with Sandy that the last thing Labour needs is the Greens finishing above them.
The only thing I would say is that the Greens winning would give them a big boost in terms of publicity. Reform can always say that the seat was challenging and that realistically their only hope was a split Labour-Green vote.
If Labour fall behind the Greens then their tactical voting argument is shot to ribbons. That's fine with the Lib Dems, who are confined to ~100 mostly naturally Tory constituencies. But the Greens threaten Labour's safest seats in the cities.
IMO Labour losing to the Greens is a setback and a containable difficulty. Labour losing to Reform is a disaster.
Greens can't form a government, Reform can. If they win today the chance of that significantly rises. If they lose, it drops a bit.
Many Ukrainians are reportedly sick of the word "resilience".
They tend to think that they wouldn't have had to be so resilient if the West had got off its arse and provided them with the munitions they had asked for.
Although I'd like Labour to win tonight, it seems unlikely. So it has to be the Greens. Unlike some other Labour fans on here, I'd much rather succumb to a threat from the left than have the odious Matt Goodwin in parliament. A price worth paying.
What would a “good” result for Labour be in this by-election, as percentage of the vote?
Anything over 20% for Labour gives them a decent chance of regaining the seat at the general election I think. But in terms of the effect on national politics the percentage doesn't matter - they have to finish above the Greens.
You know I am quite glad I don't live in Gorton & Denton and not just for the obvious reasons. What on earth would you do?
Greens, total nutters, economically illiterate, bossy, nannying, patronising.
Labour, making a right mess of the country, incompetent, unable to see the consequences of their policies, all over the place.
Reform, bunch of quasi fascists, bigoted, racist, just vile.
Everyone else: absolutely nowhere.
I think I would be edging towards Labour. No matter how bad they are the alternatives are even worse.
I feel much the same.
It's incredible to me just how poor Labour have been so far. They have a huge majority (of course with a smallish vote share) and they seem to be almost stuck in the mud. I would have expected far more action from Labour. Before anyone says "these things take time" if there's one thing we have learnt from the pandemic it's that we can go much faster when we need to, and if we don't need to now, particularly in terms of defence, when would we?
If Labour lose to Reform at the next general election we are all going to be screwed. Labour need to raise their game ASAP, more than their party fortune lies on the line.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
The government will not be giving the landmark assisted dying legislation more time in the House of Lords, which means it almost certainly will fall, Sky News's deputy political correspondent Sam Coates understands
If the polling rather than the betting markets is the truer indicator today, then we will likely see a recount and the winner by a matter of tens of votes. It could split effectively evenly across green/lab/ref.
Alea iacta est
Some of us are hoping for a three way tie, with the Returning Officer having to arrange the drawing of lots. The one who pulls the shortest straw has to be the MP......
In terms of a 'good result for Labour', G and D is a top 50 safest seat The dying Tories managed 31% in a three way in Mid Beds and 41% in handsy Pinchers Tamworth in seats (just) outside top 50 safest and we know what happened in July 24.......
Many Ukrainians are reportedly sick of the word "resilience".
They tend to think that they wouldn't have had to be so resilient if the West had got off its arse and provided them with the munitions they had asked for.
No-one ever chooses to be resilient because you never choose the afflictions you have to endure. But it is useful.
The Western response is mixed. Some good, a lot indifferent and some like the United States now, actually hostile. I think messages of support like Prince Harry's are still important ,even if many people aren't listening.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
The government will not be giving the landmark assisted dying legislation more time in the House of Lords, which means it almost certainly will fall, Sky News's deputy political correspondent Sam Coates understands
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
So, rich people can avoid pain by going to Switzerland.
The rest of you? Suck it up.
Come back with a better bill with adequate safeguards then fine.
What safeguards do you want that aren't in the bill already?
Sam Coates of Sky said that even if attempts were made to bring it back, it would not become law until after the next GE and no government would want to fight an election on this subject
Labour losing is bad. Labour finishing 3rd behind Greens is worse. At that point Labour’s “only we can stop Reform” pitch is toast, Greens stop being a protest vote and become a plausible choice, and Labour’s safest-city-seat assumption starts looking like complacency.
Losing to Reform is a disaster headline. Losing to Greens is a strategic problem.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
So, rich people can avoid pain by going to Switzerland.
The rest of you? Suck it up.
Come back with a better bill with adequate safeguards then fine.
What safeguards do you want that aren't in the bill already?
The Bill is done and a new one will come so it’s largely irrelevant however more on preventing coercion and certainly to prevent the sort of mission creep we’ve seen in places like Canada.
Money grubbing relatives dispatching granny for her cash needs to be stopped full stop.
There are other things too however the bill looks doomed so it starts afresh sometime in the future.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
The government will not be giving the landmark assisted dying legislation more time in the House of Lords, which means it almost certainly will fall, Sky News's deputy political correspondent Sam Coates understands
I've received an email from Labour this morning saying:
"it’s going right down to the wire between Labour and Reform"
Also:
"we’ve built a team of over 1,000 volunteers, delivered nearly half a million leaflets, and spoken to 30,000 voters"
As I noted on the last thread, all that's missing is a positive reason to vote Labour.
The answer is in the email. If keeping Reform out isn't a positive enough reason to vote Labour then I can't think of anything that could be. What are you looking for? It sounds like one of those "How Green were the Nazis"
The one positive of a Reform win for me is it winds up sooo many here.
There are easier ways. You could say trans women aren't all rapists.....
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
Many of Victoria Starmer’s Polish family were killed by the Nazis. Their fate has shaped her life By taking her children to her grandparents’ village at the weekend, the PM’s wife is keeping the memory of her Jewish ancestors alive ... Lady Starmer’s father, Bernard Alexander, was born in Britain in 1929 to Jewish parents who are both believed to have migrated to England from Budzisław Stary in the 1920s. The rest of the family stayed behind in Koło, a small town two hours to the west of Warsaw by road. It is understood that none survived the Holocaust. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/25/victoria-starmers-polish-family-were-killed-by-the-nazis/ (£££)
Just as well that her grandparents weren't subject to "remigration" as desired by many on the right.
When I toured eastern europe a decade ago there was a ghostly absence of that complex and varied centuries old Jewish culture of Poland, Hungary and Czechia.
I read this book on my travels, a book on a culture about to go extinct.
A great pity that not more attention is paid, including on here, to how the Jewish community feels, about whether it feels it has a future in Britain. The threat to it does not come solely from Reform or the right.
See, for instance, the sentencing remarks of Mr Justice Wall to the three men convicted last December of a plot to slaughter Jews in Manchester - https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Sentencing-Remarks-Saadaoui-and-others-final.pdf. The details of the plot are horrific. Those men did not come out of nowhere. There has been a steady increase in attacks on Jews in this country in recent years and too little has been done to counter this or to criticise those doing it and far too much has been done to justify it or explain it away or to blame Jews for the attacks on them.
If you were interested in the Wasserstein book you should also read "Uprooted" by Lyn Julius - about 3000 years of Jewish history and civilisation in the Middle East and how it too vanished as a result of the wrongdoing of others. When ignorant tossers shout "Go back to where you came from" to Jews, the Middle East is where they come from and where they have every right to be. "Last Days in Babylon" by Marina Benjamin is also worth reading.
I think it was you who recommended "Crooked Cross" by Sally Carson, which I read and enjoyed (if "enjoy" is the right word). There was a reading of it on BBC Sounds, though the episodes are no longer available, infuriatingly. It is on Audible though.
I was brought up in a Jewish part of London, and am massively pro the Jewish community. I live in the actual world and pay attention. I don't really recognise the bit I have put in bold as being how any element of mainstream society, politics or media acts or thinks. Maybe I need to get out more?
Although I'd like Labour to win tonight, it seems unlikely. So it has to be the Greens. Unlike some other Labour fans on here, I'd much rather succumb to a threat from the left than have the odious Matt Goodwin in parliament. A price worth paying.
The Greens winning might well be the best result for Reform.
A win for them today makes anti-Reform tactical voting much more complicated, and that means a lot more Reform MPs in the next Parliament - including Matt Goodwin.
If Reform don’t win - even if they aren’t supposed to - I think it blunts their momentum.
Yes. It will be a big blow for them coming in to May. The last big test before it
It suggests that there is a fundamental cap on their support, I’m still not clear what that number is. But it’s I suspect not high enough to win outright.
I think the parallel is with the far right in France. Big enough to unsettle, not big enough to win power.
I've received an email from Labour this morning saying:
"it’s going right down to the wire between Labour and Reform"
Also:
"we’ve built a team of over 1,000 volunteers, delivered nearly half a million leaflets, and spoken to 30,000 voters"
As I noted on the last thread, all that's missing is a positive reason to vote Labour.
The answer is in the email. If keeping Reform out isn't a positive enough reason to vote Labour then I can't think of anything that could be. What are you looking for? It sounds like one of those "How Green were the Nazis"
The one positive of a Reform win for me is it winds up sooo many here.
There are easier ways. You could say trans women aren't all rapists.....
Although I'd like Labour to win tonight, it seems unlikely. So it has to be the Greens. Unlike some other Labour fans on here, I'd much rather succumb to a threat from the left than have the odious Matt Goodwin in parliament. A price worth paying.
Absolutely. And it might remind the Labour leadership not to take the left for granted.
Although I'd like Labour to win tonight, it seems unlikely. So it has to be the Greens. Unlike some other Labour fans on here, I'd much rather succumb to a threat from the left than have the odious Matt Goodwin in parliament. A price worth paying.
The Greens winning might well be the best result for Reform.
A win for them today makes anti-Reform tactical voting much more complicated, and that means a lot more Reform MPs in the next Parliament - including Matt Goodwin.
Nah, you're overcomplicating. The next election is ages away. This is an unusual seat. The best result for Reform is winning.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I look at it from a position of suffering disabilities and im mortified that this could have easily opened the door to 'people' in the future raising me being dead as the best option all round. Permitted never proposed, allowed never encouraged.
I've received an email from Labour this morning saying:
"it’s going right down to the wire between Labour and Reform"
Also:
"we’ve built a team of over 1,000 volunteers, delivered nearly half a million leaflets, and spoken to 30,000 voters"
As I noted on the last thread, all that's missing is a positive reason to vote Labour.
The answer is in the email. If keeping Reform out isn't a positive enough reason to vote Labour then I can't think of anything that could be. What are you looking for? It sounds like one of those "How Green were the Nazis"
Voters can vote to keep Reform out while simultaneously giving the Government a kick up the arse by voting Green.
We have, as I've mentioned before, a Council by-election here next week, and the (?first) Reform leaflet has just been delivered. There is nothing whatsoever about local issues and it doesn't even mention the candidate. Just a long message from Robert Jenrick about why he defected and a standard list of Reform policies, such as stopping immigration ...... we don't have any immigrants locally, although Wethersfield is in the District Council's area ..... and abandoning Net Zero. Mainly it seems to be attacking the Conservatives in a Independent/Green Council seat.
If Reform don’t win - even if they aren’t supposed to - I think it blunts their momentum.
Yes. It will be a big blow for them coming in to May. The last big test before it
It suggests that there is a fundamental cap on their support, I’m still not clear what that number is. But it’s I suspect not high enough to win outright.
I think the parallel is with the far right in France. Big enough to unsettle, not big enough to win power.
Lets hope, anyway,
The French system seems designed to stop a party with the support of ~one-third, well in the lead because the other two-thirds is split multiple ways, but anathema to that two-thirds, from winning. The British voting system could well give such a party a landslide majority, unless voters intuit well enough how to vote tactically to prevent it from happening.
Either way, if we think the public aren't particularly happy about the landslide Labour majority they elected in 2024, I imagine that is nothing compared to the awesome displeasure they will feel about the result of the next general election.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I suspect it, in some form, will be in the manifesto of at least a couple of parties at the next election, and law within ten years. The dam has broken.
If Reform don’t win - even if they aren’t supposed to - I think it blunts their momentum.
Yes. It will be a big blow for them coming in to May. The last big test before it
It suggests that there is a fundamental cap on their support, I’m still not clear what that number is. But it’s I suspect not high enough to win outright.
I think the parallel is with the far right in France. Big enough to unsettle, not big enough to win power.
Lets hope, anyway,
The French system seems designed to stop a party with the support of ~one-third, well in the lead because the other two-thirds is split multiple ways, but anathema to that two-thirds, from winning. The British voting system could well give such a party a landslide majority, unless voters intuit well enough how to vote tactically to prevent it from happening.
Either way, if we think the public aren't particularly happy about the landslide Labour majority they elected in 2024, I imagine that is nothing compared to the awesome displeasure they will feel about the result of the next general election.
Well Labour have a HUGE majority based on a 34% share, so it could happen for Reform. I suspect that loathing of Reform is a lot more motivating than scepticism of Labour.
We have, as I've mentioned before, a Council by-election here next week, and the (?first) Reform leaflet has just been delivered. There is nothing whatsoever about local issues and it doesn't even mention the candidate. Just a long message from Robert Jenrick about why he defected and a standard list of Reform policies, such as stopping immigration ...... we don't have any immigrants locally, although Wethersfield is in the District Council's area ..... and abandoning Net Zero. Mainly it seems to be attacking the Conservatives in a Independent/Green Council seat.
Should be an exciting one OKC! A little pre taster for the CC in May
If Reform don’t win - even if they aren’t supposed to - I think it blunts their momentum.
Conversely, if Reform *do* win, in a very safe seat, it means no Labour seat is safe in a by-election.
That’s correct. If Reform win then they’re heavy favourites for me.
And I’m down £50.
It could be a bit of a turning point, win or lose. Among the entire anorak/media/wonk/political community Matt Goodwin is well known, and the only well known Reform 'intellectual' - though IMO he has trashed what was a decent reputation. I think it is fairly clear that he was run on the basis that Reform would win.
Possibly, but how many goes did it take Farage to get into the Commons? Maybe Reform are more relaxed about taking a few times.
A Green win is definitely the best outcome for the Tories (as much as there can be one).
And it's the worst outcome for the Lib Dems.
LDs are going to need to find a USP. They are shielded somewhat by decent majorities and first time incumbency but a Tory recovery to, say, 2024 level in the South plus a Green surge will stretch their ability to hold a fair few seats
If Reform don’t win - even if they aren’t supposed to - I think it blunts their momentum.
Conversely, if Reform *do* win, in a very safe seat, it means no Labour seat is safe in a by-election.
That’s correct. If Reform win then they’re heavy favourites for me.
And I’m down £50.
It could be a bit of a turning point, win or lose. Among the entire anorak/media/wonk/political community Matt Goodwin is well known, and the only well known Reform 'intellectual' - though IMO he has trashed what was a decent reputation. I think it is fairly clear that he was run on the basis that Reform would win.
Possibly, but how many goes did it take Farage to get into the Commons? Maybe Reform are more relaxed about taking a few times.
Reform are either the next government or the next UKIP. Theres no second bite in 2034 imo
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I look at it from a position of suffering disabilities and im mortified that this could have easily opened the door to 'people' in the future raising me being dead as the best option all round. Permitted never proposed, allowed never encouraged.
What domestic living aid was it that bloke in Canada wanted and they asked if he'd consider suicide instead? A stairlift, or a ramp or something quite ordinary.
A Green win is definitely the best outcome for the Tories (as much as there can be one).
And it's the worst outcome for the Lib Dems.
LDs are going to need to find a USP. They are shielded somewhat by decent majorities and first time incumbency but a Tory recovery to, say, 2024 level in the South plus a Green surge will stretch their ability to hold a fair few seats
The last election was straightforward. Get the Tories out. It doesn't matter who you elect, Labour will win a comfortable majority.
That is unlikely to be the case next time. The Lib Dems may come under pressure to give a view on going into coalition with the Greens.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
The government will not be giving the landmark assisted dying legislation more time in the House of Lords, which means it almost certainly will fall, Sky News's deputy political correspondent Sam Coates understands
This news made me sad. The debate showed the political process at its best and worst. The worst was when the Lords made a large number of blocking amendments designed to do nothing other than delay. The best was when politicians on both sides and in both chambers made speeches and points that were sincerely meant, contributed to the debate, and would have made the bill better. As I pointed out I am torn on this but I hoped that Parliament would rise to the occasion. Some did, some did not: hence the sadness.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I look at it from a position of suffering disabilities and im mortified that this could have easily opened the door to 'people' in the future raising me being dead as the best option all round. Permitted never proposed, allowed never encouraged.
What domestic living aid was it that bloke in Canada wanted and they asked if he'd consider suicide instead? A stairlift, or a ramp or something quite ordinary.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
There's definitely an impression that persuading people to commit 'suicide' is an economic advantage for the state.
We have, as I've mentioned before, a Council by-election here next week, and the (?first) Reform leaflet has just been delivered. There is nothing whatsoever about local issues and it doesn't even mention the candidate. Just a long message from Robert Jenrick about why he defected and a standard list of Reform policies, such as stopping immigration ...... we don't have any immigrants locally, although Wethersfield is in the District Council's area ..... and abandoning Net Zero. Mainly it seems to be attacking the Conservatives in a Independent/Green Council seat.
Should be an exciting one OKC! A little pre taster for the CC in May
Well, the campaign started as quite exciting, but it seems to have tailed off a bit now.
We have, as I've mentioned before, a Council by-election here next week, and the (?first) Reform leaflet has just been delivered. There is nothing whatsoever about local issues and it doesn't even mention the candidate. Just a long message from Robert Jenrick about why he defected and a standard list of Reform policies, such as stopping immigration ...... we don't have any immigrants locally, although Wethersfield is in the District Council's area ..... and abandoning Net Zero. Mainly it seems to be attacking the Conservatives in a Independent/Green Council seat.
Should be an exciting one OKC! A little pre taster for the CC in May
Well, the campaign started as quite exciting, but it seems to have tailed off a bit now.
I will come and spice it up with my comic stylings then!
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I suspect it, in some form, will be in the manifesto of at least a couple of parties at the next election, and law within ten years. The dam has broken.
IMHO our society has turned into a death cult in many ways.
If Reform don’t win - even if they aren’t supposed to - I think it blunts their momentum.
Conversely, if Reform *do* win, in a very safe seat, it means no Labour seat is safe in a by-election.
That’s correct. If Reform win then they’re heavy favourites for me.
And I’m down £50.
It could be a bit of a turning point, win or lose. Among the entire anorak/media/wonk/political community Matt Goodwin is well known, and the only well known Reform 'intellectual' - though IMO he has trashed what was a decent reputation. I think it is fairly clear that he was run on the basis that Reform would win.
Possibly, but how many goes did it take Farage to get into the Commons? Maybe Reform are more relaxed about taking a few times.
Reform are either the next government or the next UKIP. Theres no second bite in 2034 imo
We have, as I've mentioned before, a Council by-election here next week, and the (?first) Reform leaflet has just been delivered. There is nothing whatsoever about local issues and it doesn't even mention the candidate. Just a long message from Robert Jenrick about why he defected and a standard list of Reform policies, such as stopping immigration ...... we don't have any immigrants locally, although Wethersfield is in the District Council's area ..... and abandoning Net Zero. Mainly it seems to be attacking the Conservatives in a Independent/Green Council seat.
Should be an exciting one OKC! A little pre taster for the CC in May
Well, the campaign started as quite exciting, but it seems to have tailed off a bit now.
I will come and spice it up with my comic stylings then!
It's Market Day here today; Mrs C has just gone down to shop, so I wonder if she'll come back with tales of political activity. I've got to wait in for a phone call.
If Reform don’t win - even if they aren’t supposed to - I think it blunts their momentum.
Conversely, if Reform *do* win, in a very safe seat, it means no Labour seat is safe in a by-election.
That’s correct. If Reform win then they’re heavy favourites for me.
And I’m down £50.
It could be a bit of a turning point, win or lose. Among the entire anorak/media/wonk/political community Matt Goodwin is well known, and the only well known Reform 'intellectual' - though IMO he has trashed what was a decent reputation. I think it is fairly clear that he was run on the basis that Reform would win.
Possibly, but how many goes did it take Farage to get into the Commons? Maybe Reform are more relaxed about taking a few times.
Reform are either the next government or the next UKIP. Theres no second bite in 2034 imo
Why not?
A fair question. How much energy does Farage have? He's pretty much all they've got, beyond a few Tory rebels.
I'm minded to the Hitler story (I know, I know). The Nazi's seemed to have peaked and were starting to go backwards before Hitler was levered into power in 1933 by those who thought they could control him. Lets hope no-one does that for Reform. I'd rather a coalition of chaosall the parties than Reform backed by someone.
If Reform don’t win - even if they aren’t supposed to - I think it blunts their momentum.
Conversely, if Reform *do* win, in a very safe seat, it means no Labour seat is safe in a by-election.
That’s correct. If Reform win then they’re heavy favourites for me.
And I’m down £50.
It could be a bit of a turning point, win or lose. Among the entire anorak/media/wonk/political community Matt Goodwin is well known, and the only well known Reform 'intellectual' - though IMO he has trashed what was a decent reputation. I think it is fairly clear that he was run on the basis that Reform would win.
Possibly, but how many goes did it take Farage to get into the Commons? Maybe Reform are more relaxed about taking a few times.
Reform are either the next government or the next UKIP. Theres no second bite in 2034 imo
Why not?
Because their appeal is immediacy of what they claim are existential issues. 'Now, or we sink' campaigning. Kruger saying we are doomed to civil war if they lose etc When we don't sink, they do
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I suspect it, in some form, will be in the manifesto of at least a couple of parties at the next election, and law within ten years. The dam has broken.
IMHO our society has turned into a death cult in many ways.
It's an unusual time in history. Over the next ten-fifteen years about ten-fifteen million UK people - the Boomers - will die, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Everything in UK politics flows from that fact.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
The government will not be giving the landmark assisted dying legislation more time in the House of Lords, which means it almost certainly will fall, Sky News's deputy political correspondent Sam Coates understands
We have, as I've mentioned before, a Council by-election here next week, and the (?first) Reform leaflet has just been delivered. There is nothing whatsoever about local issues and it doesn't even mention the candidate. Just a long message from Robert Jenrick about why he defected and a standard list of Reform policies, such as stopping immigration ...... we don't have any immigrants locally, although Wethersfield is in the District Council's area ..... and abandoning Net Zero. Mainly it seems to be attacking the Conservatives in a Independent/Green Council seat.
Should be an exciting one OKC! A little pre taster for the CC in May
Well, the campaign started as quite exciting, but it seems to have tailed off a bit now.
I will come and spice it up with my comic stylings then!
It's Market Day here today; Mrs C has just gone down to shop, so I wonder if she'll come back with tales of political activity. I've got to wait in for a phone call.
Limited Leafletting observed and a bargain is my prediction!
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I look at it from a position of suffering disabilities and im mortified that this could have easily opened the door to 'people' in the future raising me being dead as the best option all round. Permitted never proposed, allowed never encouraged.
What domestic living aid was it that bloke in Canada wanted and they asked if he'd consider suicide instead? A stairlift, or a ramp or something quite ordinary.
It was a lady wheelchair user. Who was persistently asking about the ramp for her house. Which she was entitled to have under a government program.
The paperwork was going slow, so she was offered suicide as an alternative.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
There's definitely an impression that persuading people to commit 'suicide' is an economic advantage for the state.
On a couple of occasions, I have entered this attitude, personally. In connection with family members.
The sad truth is that a number of people are not noble philosopher kings/queens.
Sky News are reporting that the Govt will not give any extra time to the Assisted Dying Bill so it is almost certain to not become law.
Excellent news.
I'm saddened that it has come to this. The idea behind it, that people in intolerable pain and suffering can be helped to pass, just as we would take a sick cat or dog to the vet for the same, is something I support. At the moment if you have the money you can travel to Switzerland to do it. If you don't you can hope someone will be willing to risk prison time to help you.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
I look at it from a position of suffering disabilities and im mortified that this could have easily opened the door to 'people' in the future raising me being dead as the best option all round. Permitted never proposed, allowed never encouraged.
What domestic living aid was it that bloke in Canada wanted and they asked if he'd consider suicide instead? A stairlift, or a ramp or something quite ordinary.
It was a lady wheelchair user. Who was persistently asking about the ramp for her house. Which she was entitled to have under a government program.
The paperwork was going slow, so she was offered suicide as an alternative.
That sounds like something that local authorities would encourage here.
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24drvj8yl2o
Reform might form a government of course. They are treading with great care about what they will actually promise and do. The thing they can carry on doing is attacking everyone else. So they will.
Along with NATO, I just cannot see how their vote doesn’t collapse back to Labour at some point.
IMHO, I’d like to bet on Labour at 30% or above.
As for "cannot ride an e-bike in the ocean" (short of a marine version), that's up there with "I put my foot in a woodchipper, and somehow it was turned into mince". What happened?
(I wonder if there is a more serious point about reportedly more people being killed in their vehicles when they drive into rivers, and something to do with all our electric windows not working under water. This scenario was in a Frank Cannon fat-man-private-eye episode in about 197x.
We've still got the Employment Rights Bill, the Railways Bill, the Renters' Rights Bill, big reform to the NHS, etc.
https://bsky.app/profile/kateinkharkiv.bsky.social/post/3mfmfgtgvqs22
And I’m down £50.
Labour win no matter how narrow would be the best for the country against two extreme divisive parties
Some time ago I pointed out Matthew Snedker, who was Darlington's first Green councillor in about 2018 because he wanted to be able to walk or cycle his children to school, and was fed up of not being involved in decisions.
Now they have a group of six, and he has just been made Housing and Community spokesperson for GPEW.
Rent
Education
NHS
Dsfence
Assisted Dying never Government Bill. He gave it more time than almost any other PMB ever.
Highly emotive issue.
If HOC pass it then Lords should not block it.
It's on them and not Party based.
BBC News - Gorton and Denton by-election: Charlotte Cadden chosen as Tory candidate - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn40kmrkk9xo?app-referrer=deep-link
A few anoraks will discuss vote share, but about 90% of the immediate news stories will be about the winner.
Sure, the columnists will project results - “a vote collapse in Labour’s 6th safest seat” etc. But that won’t impinge on the non-political world out there.
It could split effectively evenly across green/lab/ref.
Alea iacta est
Greens can't form a government, Reform can. If they win today the chance of that significantly rises. If they lose, it drops a bit.
They tend to think that they wouldn't have had to be so resilient if the West had got off its arse and provided them with the munitions they had asked for.
One of the greatest charts I have ever seen
https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/2026477341694710024
It's incredible to me just how poor Labour have been so far. They have a huge majority (of course with a smallish vote share) and they seem to be almost stuck in the mud. I would have expected far more action from Labour. Before anyone says "these things take time" if there's one thing we have learnt from the pandemic it's that we can go much faster when we need to, and if we don't need to now, particularly in terms of defence, when would we?
If Labour lose to Reform at the next general election we are all going to be screwed. Labour need to raise their game ASAP, more than their party fortune lies on the line.
The dying Tories managed 31% in a three way in Mid Beds and 41% in handsy Pinchers Tamworth in seats (just) outside top 50 safest and we know what happened in July 24.......
The Western response is mixed. Some good, a lot indifferent and some like the United States now, actually hostile. I think messages of support like Prince Harry's are still important ,even if many people aren't listening.
Is he right ?
Losing to Reform is a disaster headline. Losing to Greens is a strategic problem.
Money grubbing relatives dispatching granny for her cash needs to be stopped full stop.
There are other things too however the bill looks doomed so it starts afresh sometime in the future.
The backers of the current law seem to have lost the plot. I am not sure what is behind their motivations, but so much is wrong with the current proposal that it has to fail.
A win for them today makes anti-Reform tactical voting much more complicated, and that means a lot more Reform MPs in the next Parliament - including Matt Goodwin.
Lets hope, anyway,
What is your Rogerdamus like prediction BtW ?
And it's the worst outcome for the Lib Dems.
That's our problem.
Mainly it seems to be attacking the Conservatives in a Independent/Green Council seat.
Either way, if we think the public aren't particularly happy about the landslide Labour majority they elected in 2024, I imagine that is nothing compared to the awesome displeasure they will feel about the result of the next general election.
You may as well forecast that there will be weather tomorrow.
I guess the chart does at least remind us that actions have consequences.
That is unlikely to be the case next time. The Lib Dems may come under pressure to give a view on going into coalition with the Greens.
Quite. Slippery slope.
I'm minded to the Hitler story (I know, I know). The Nazi's seemed to have peaked and were starting to go backwards before Hitler was levered into power in 1933 by those who thought they could control him. Lets hope no-one does that for Reform. I'd rather a coalition of
chaosall the parties than Reform backed by someone.Kruger saying we are doomed to civil war if they lose etc
When we don't sink, they do
https://youtu.be/AiCF1QdyxhM?si=Kd_yfp-uVKrx_y10
“Trust me”
@BritainElects
·
1m
The Britain Predicts final forecast for Gorton and Denton, complete with ranges:
GRN: 31% (25-38%)
REF: 30% (30-33%)
LAB: 29% (22-34%)
Drilldown, including what built it:
https://newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2026/02/gorton-and-denton-by-election-prediction-parties-just-hundreds-of-votes-apart
The paperwork was going slow, so she was offered suicide as an alternative.
The sad truth is that a number of people are not noble philosopher kings/queens.