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If this poll is correct then the value is with Labour – politicalbetting.com

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,262

    stodge said:

    boulay said:

    Cicero said:

    Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.

    He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.

    One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.

    There's something nasty in the woodshed...

    I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.

    Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.

    On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.

    For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
    The general line is some on here expect and want things to happen quickly whereas the political "process" is generally much slower - not always.

    Everyone does some form of wishcasting or hopecasting - it's human nature to, as that savant Geri Horner once said "tell me what you want, what you really, really want" and there's almost a mantra the more you want something to happen, the more you see signs of its imminent happening.

    If you want a site with 100% objective commentary, you won't find one. You might find some individuals who are occasionally prepared to be more even handed and praise those whom they normally criticise and criticise those whom they normally praise but that doesn't happen too often and most people's contributions are fairly typical. We know where most people are politically on most things.

    If I had to characterise PB, I wouldn't describe it as "centrist" (I don't know what that term means, at least not objectively). It is broadly anti-"Left" (again, depends on what you call "left" and "right" as those terms have lost all meaning if they ever had any), conservative (though not necessarily Conservative) and male. Socially and economically we're sort of conservative though with liberal tendencies.

    The other problem is those who get emotionally invested in individual politicians - I don't understand the vitriolic personal antipathy toward Starmer, Reeves, Badenoch, Polanski, Farage, Davey etc, etc. I've no strong feelings about any of them - the only one with whom I'm starting to have a personal issue is Rupert Lowe.
    stodge said:

    boulay said:

    Cicero said:

    Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.

    He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.

    One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.

    There's something nasty in the woodshed...

    I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.

    Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.

    On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.

    For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
    The general line is some on here expect and want things to happen quickly whereas the political "process" is generally much slower - not always.

    Everyone does some form of wishcasting or hopecasting - it's human nature to, as that savant Geri Horner once said "tell me what you want, what you really, really want" and there's almost a mantra the more you want something to happen, the more you see signs of its imminent happening.

    If you want a site with 100% objective commentary, you won't find one. You might find some individuals who are occasionally prepared to be more even handed and praise those whom they normally criticise and criticise those whom they normally praise but that doesn't happen too often and most people's contributions are fairly typical. We know where most people are politically on most things.

    If I had to characterise PB, I wouldn't describe it as "centrist" (I don't know what that term means, at least not objectively). It is broadly anti-"Left" (again, depends on what you call "left" and "right" as those terms have lost all meaning if they ever had any), conservative (though not necessarily Conservative) and male. Socially and economically we're sort of conservative though with liberal tendencies.

    The other problem is those who get emotionally invested in individual politicians - I don't understand the vitriolic personal antipathy toward Starmer, Reeves, Badenoch, Polanski, Farage, Davey etc, etc. I've no strong feelings about any of them - the only one with whom I'm starting to have a personal issue is Rupert Lowe.
    And of course it varies over time, Stodge. You will remember when The Tory Herd was a thing, and occasional infestations of The Yellow Peril. Centrist Dads seems to be the new PB Blob.

    You attending The Festival at all? I shall certainly go for one day, possibly two. If going, we could meet up? I usually catch up with ScottP in the Istabraq bar and give him the benefit of my worthless opinions. It would be nice to meet up with you again.
    PB is Leamington Spa garden shed, rather than Tunbridge Wells garden shed.

    There used to be a decent political blog called "Man in a Shed".
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,865
    edited 11:05AM

    One more point on the Scottish MRP. Reform havent named a single candidate yet. They are behind the 8 ball (are they going to stand all 73 FPTP?)

    I assume Offord is a candidate by default, and that weird looking Glasgow councillor also? I’m agog to see which member(s) of the Alba ex-party will declare for Reform.
    If Reform had half a brain theyd be on the blower quietly to Findlay saying 'you havent got anyone up in Glenrothes or Kirkcaldy or Glasgow Maryhill etc. Keep it that way and we will not find someone for Ettrick or Eastwood'
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,934

    boulay said:

    Cicero said:

    Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.

    He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.

    One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.

    There's something nasty in the woodshed...

    I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.

    Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.

    On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.

    For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
    Even though PB is very male, very educated and very nerdy compared to the mainstream we're still a diverse bunch who like to argue with each other and I think it's rare that there's a unified collective view on anything.

    Sure, for example, there are a few posters who are consistently very optimistic about Ukraine's chances and have predicted an imminent Russian collapse for a long time. I remember how Chinese truck tyres were going to cripple Russian logistics too. But that's not the collective PB.com view. You'll find other posters injecting a note of realism or contrarianism into such debates.

    It irritates me when posters pretend there's a monolithic PB.com opinion that they can present themselves as a wise contrary savant providing corrections to.
    The diversity and (limited) accuracy of entries to the PB predictions competition very much supports your point.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,951
    Apologies. Last night I posted the wrong Betfair prices for G+D by election. I posted the odds for coming 2nd and not for winning!

    Correct odds now are

    To win
    Greens 1.59
    Reform 4.7
    Labour 5.8

    To come 2nd
    Reform 1.63
    Greens 4.8
    Labour 4.4

    So the 6/1 I got on Labour to win is not as good as I thought. But still a bit of value currently.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,032

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.

    https://x.com/crmiller1/status/2026321878952898977

    It is highly disturbing, and we are nowhere in addressing aggressive Chinese spying, and the fact that all Chinese companies are agents of the Chinese Communist Party.

    We have this extremely foolish policy of Russia as public enemy number 1, but craven submission to China, which is the power behind Russia. Russia can't even produce EVs, let alone use them to gather geographical data. It is tokenism and cowardice.

    We should get rid of the ban on ICE vehicles to reduce prices and protect consumers, before taking whatever action is necessary against Chinese EV producers.
    What exactly do you think you have that would be of interest to the Chinese state? I'm seriously interested. I think you're suffering from Walter Mitty syndrome as are many Tories on this site.
    I don't agree with you on much but I am 100% with you on this. The nebulous fear that your data is somehow interest to a hostile body makes me laugh.
    Your personal data will get sifted to see if it’s of interest. If it isn’t, it will be sold on to the aggregating data brokers.

    This represents a threat to your *personal* security. Various crooks use the “jigsaw” technique to pull together enough information to do identity theft etc.
    I also don't think it is paranoia not to want a hostile state tracking you everywhere you go or with access to all your security cameras.

    Cars are particularly bad as the only way to stop the information leak is to Faraday cage the transmitter, which is not exactly practical.

    Chinese tat at home should be stuck on a VLAN with no access from the internet other than through your own VPN, but this is well beyond most users.

    I don't really understand why the government is so lax about allowing all this stuff through, particularly as half of it doesn't actually meet any kind of electrical standard.
    "I also don't think it is paranoia not to want a hostile state tracking you everywhere you go".

    I assume you are the hero of this movie. How many people do the Chinese dedicated to following your every move? Five? Ten?
    I am not personally _that_ concerned and I block everything partially out of sheer bloody mindedness, but if the data is of no value then why is it collected? It _is_ collected, as anyone who logs these things will know.

    Thirty or forty years ago you used to be able to travel around the country pretty much at will without anyone demanding to know where you are going. Now you can't go past a roundabout without it being logged.

    Do we actually feel any safer as a result?
    This is tangential to the broader discussion, but as someone who could be called a data scientist... an awful lot of data is collected because it can be, and so someone thinks if it can, let's collect it, even though they have no analysis plan. An awful lot of data gets collected and no-one ever looks at it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,262
    edited 11:18AM

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    I see that energy bills are coming down again from the next quarter by 7%, or an estimated £117, in cash terms from April, or 10% in real terms as we have 3% inflation.

    That's the Government's Manifesto's £300 reduction in energy bills by 2030 pledge relative to 2023 more than met four years early, using the "typical household" number.

    £2500 in 2023 Q2, £2074 in 2023 Q3 and £1641 in 2026 Q2.
    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/what-is-the-energy-price-cap/

    Minus another 20% or £400+ if we are talking in real terms, since inflation has done 20% since then.

    What are the odds that the Govt talk about it in such sotto voce terms in such obscure places so rarely that no one notices, and the shouty Right just move on to the next item on their Whinge List (which TBF is their job)?

    I have also just had a note from Octopus that the price for electricity units I export from my solar panels is dropping from 15.5p to 12.5p (which will cost me about £100 per annum).

    Met by moving part of the cost onto taxes, so a bit robbing Peter to pay Paul.

    Not met due to productivity, efficiencies or actually reducing costs.
    Partly true, bit I think it's more subtle than that. There are multiple causes.

    The bit that never gets mentioned in that energy usage per household is down by between 1/4 and 1/3 since 2000.

    That's partly down to efficiency (eg LED lights), partly down to programmes such as Energy Company Obligation (which has installed 4+ million "measures" since 2013, partly down to higher building standards (largely since 2010), and partly down to more attention paid (enabled eg by Smart meters), and also changing demographics (smaller households).

    This is all despite dwellings probably being run at higher temperatures (eg more pensioners).
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,032

    stodge said:

    Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice.
    Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
    If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM

    Why?
    A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory.
    If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
    David Cameron in Dec 2011 blocked an EU-wide deal to tackle the Eurozone crisis, that he supported, but he knew he couldn't get through Parliament. He did not resign. Blair was facing similar problems with the EU in 2004/5. He did not resign. Didn't Lloyd George struggle with some League of Nations stuff in Parliament in the 1920s? He did not resign.
    Had any of them formally agreed those treaties?
    Cameron, Blair, no, but then they weren't dealing with anyone as capricious as Trump.

    Lloyd George, I'd have to crack open some history books.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,977
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    I see that energy bills are coming down again from the next quarter by 7%, or an estimated £117, in cash terms from April, or 10% in real terms as we have 3% inflation.

    That's the Government's Manifesto's £300 reduction in energy bills by 2030 pledge relative to 2023 more than met four years early, using the "typical household" number.

    £2500 in 2023 Q2, £2074 in 2023 Q3 and £1641 in 2026 Q2.
    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/what-is-the-energy-price-cap/

    Minus another 20% or £400+ if we are talking in real terms, since inflation has done 20% since then.

    What are the odds that the Govt talk about it in such sotto voce terms in such obscure places so rarely that no one notices, and the shouty Right just move on to the next item on their Whinge List (which TBF is their job)?

    I have also just had a note from Octopus that the price for electricity units I export from my solar panels is dropping from 15.5p to 12.5p (which will cost me about £100 per annum).

    Good morning

    Same with us on our solar panels

    The problem with saying energy bills are coming down is the consumers are not recognising it

    Until they see it it will remain an issue
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,865

    stodge said:

    Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice.
    Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
    If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM

    Why?
    A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory.
    If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
    David Cameron in Dec 2011 blocked an EU-wide deal to tackle the Eurozone crisis, that he supported, but he knew he couldn't get through Parliament. He did not resign. Blair was facing similar problems with the EU in 2004/5. He did not resign. Didn't Lloyd George struggle with some League of Nations stuff in Parliament in the 1920s? He did not resign.
    Had any of them formally agreed those treaties?
    Cameron, Blair, no, but then they weren't dealing with anyone as capricious as Trump.

    Lloyd George, I'd have to crack open some history books.
    No, you dont need to. I am being bombastic as ever. It ought to be a resigning matter imo for the reasons stated. Other opinions exist!
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,703
    If Chagos is kicked into the long grass Sir Keir would see it as a blessed relief: it would be the ultimate in barnacle scraping and would, moreover, leave Reform and the Tories without any foreign policy.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,865

    If Chagos is kicked into the long grass Sir Keir would see it as a blessed relief: it would be the ultimate in barnacle scraping and would, moreover, leave Reform and the Tories without any foreign policy.

    The cleansing fire of humiliation
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,236

    Roger said:

    stodge said:

    Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice.
    Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
    If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM

    Why?
    A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory.
    If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
    You could send Michael Crick on a six month fact finding mission to every bingo hall laundrette bar pub restaurant football stadium nightclub prison factory swimming pool park museum art gallery and brothel in the country and you wouldn't find a single person male female or trans who would mention the Chagos Islands. It is something only spoken about amongst a weird subset of PBers
    You should get out more.

    Chagos, like Mandelbrot, the Prince formerly known as Andrew and Epstein, has entered the non-political discourse. Coffee machine banter.

    “We are paying to give away these islands. How fucked is that?”

    Goes with

    “We are ruled by nonces and thieves. Bet they are sweating now, though. Ha ha.”
    They're imagining an island with a 25 bed luxury chateau and swimming pool with cocktails and masseuses.

    Not the radio active one that looks like Chernobyl.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 830

    If Chagos is kicked into the long grass Sir Keir would see it as a blessed relief: it would be the ultimate in barnacle scraping and would, moreover, leave Reform and the Tories without any foreign policy.

    It's crystal clear as Judah says that gutless Trump is playing the right wing global god

    The electorate 99% of whom couldn't find Chagos on a map, 87%!of whom probably think it's a cheese and 90% of whom hate Trump with a passion, will not take lightly to Badenoch and Farage running to Trump to fuck over the United Kingdom.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,262

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    I see that energy bills are coming down again from the next quarter by 7%, or an estimated £117, in cash terms from April, or 10% in real terms as we have 3% inflation.

    That's the Government's Manifesto's £300 reduction in energy bills by 2030 pledge relative to 2023 more than met four years early, using the "typical household" number.

    £2500 in 2023 Q2, £2074 in 2023 Q3 and £1641 in 2026 Q2.
    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/what-is-the-energy-price-cap/

    Minus another 20% or £400+ if we are talking in real terms, since inflation has done 20% since then.

    What are the odds that the Govt talk about it in such sotto voce terms in such obscure places so rarely that no one notices, and the shouty Right just move on to the next item on their Whinge List (which TBF is their job)?

    I have also just had a note from Octopus that the price for electricity units I export from my solar panels is dropping from 15.5p to 12.5p (which will cost me about £100 per annum).

    Good morning

    Same with us on our solar panels

    The problem with saying energy bills are coming down is the consumers are not recognising it

    Until they see it it will remain an issue
    Yes - the energy bills are more in the nature of a permawhinge.

    Even without the solar payments, my total energy bills are still substantially (about 25%) lower in cash terms than they were in 2013 when I moved in, never mind inflation.

    And I still have to switch the central heating from a Gas Boiler to A2A heat pump.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 830

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    I see that energy bills are coming down again from the next quarter by 7%, or an estimated £117, in cash terms from April, or 10% in real terms as we have 3% inflation.

    That's the Government's Manifesto's £300 reduction in energy bills by 2030 pledge relative to 2023 more than met four years early, using the "typical household" number.

    £2500 in 2023 Q2, £2074 in 2023 Q3 and £1641 in 2026 Q2.
    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/what-is-the-energy-price-cap/

    Minus another 20% or £400+ if we are talking in real terms, since inflation has done 20% since then.

    What are the odds that the Govt talk about it in such sotto voce terms in such obscure places so rarely that no one notices, and the shouty Right just move on to the next item on their Whinge List (which TBF is their job)?

    I have also just had a note from Octopus that the price for electricity units I export from my solar panels is dropping from 15.5p to 12.5p (which will cost me about £100 per annum).

    Good morning

    Same with us on our solar panels

    The problem with saying energy bills are coming down is the consumers are not recognising it

    Until they see it it will remain an issue
    They will after April and before May.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,726

    One more point on the Scottish MRP. Reform havent named a single candidate yet. They are behind the 8 ball (are they going to stand all 73 FPTP?)

    I assume Offord is a candidate by default, and that weird looking Glasgow councillor also? I’m agog to see which member(s) of the Alba ex-party will declare for Reform.
    If Reform had half a brain theyd be on the blower quietly to Findlay saying 'you havent got anyone up in Glenrothes or Kirkcaldy or Glasgow Maryhill etc. Keep it that way and we will not find someone for Ettrick or Eastwood'
    Not even between them. Besides Reform are high on their own supply of inheritors of the right wing torch hubris. Probably a reality check or two before any pragmatism strikes.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,236

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    I see that energy bills are coming down again from the next quarter by 7%, or an estimated £117, in cash terms from April, or 10% in real terms as we have 3% inflation.

    That's the Government's Manifesto's £300 reduction in energy bills by 2030 pledge relative to 2023 more than met four years early, using the "typical household" number.

    £2500 in 2023 Q2, £2074 in 2023 Q3 and £1641 in 2026 Q2.
    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/what-is-the-energy-price-cap/

    Minus another 20% or £400+ if we are talking in real terms, since inflation has done 20% since then.

    What are the odds that the Govt talk about it in such sotto voce terms in such obscure places so rarely that no one notices, and the shouty Right just move on to the next item on their Whinge List (which TBF is their job)?

    I have also just had a note from Octopus that the price for electricity units I export from my solar panels is dropping from 15.5p to 12.5p (which will cost me about £100 per annum).

    Good morning

    Same with us on our solar panels

    The problem with saying energy bills are coming down is the consumers are not recognising it

    Until they see it it will remain an issue
    Rejoice! Starmer is on the up!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,444
    stjohn said:

    Apologies. Last night I posted the wrong Betfair prices for G+D by election. I posted the odds for coming 2nd and not for winning!

    Correct odds now are

    To win
    Greens 1.59
    Reform 4.7
    Labour 5.8

    To come 2nd
    Reform 1.63
    Greens 4.8
    Labour 4.4

    So the 6/1 I got on Labour to win is not as good as I thought. But still a bit of value currently.

    As are Labour and the Greens to come second.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,977
    Brixian59 said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    I see that energy bills are coming down again from the next quarter by 7%, or an estimated £117, in cash terms from April, or 10% in real terms as we have 3% inflation.

    That's the Government's Manifesto's £300 reduction in energy bills by 2030 pledge relative to 2023 more than met four years early, using the "typical household" number.

    £2500 in 2023 Q2, £2074 in 2023 Q3 and £1641 in 2026 Q2.
    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/what-is-the-energy-price-cap/

    Minus another 20% or £400+ if we are talking in real terms, since inflation has done 20% since then.

    What are the odds that the Govt talk about it in such sotto voce terms in such obscure places so rarely that no one notices, and the shouty Right just move on to the next item on their Whinge List (which TBF is their job)?

    I have also just had a note from Octopus that the price for electricity units I export from my solar panels is dropping from 15.5p to 12.5p (which will cost me about £100 per annum).

    Good morning

    Same with us on our solar panels

    The problem with saying energy bills are coming down is the consumers are not recognising it

    Until they see it it will remain an issue
    They will after April and before May.
    It's smoke and mirrors

    Reeves increased general taxation to remove the subsidy

    It was the right thing to do
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,147
    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Taz said:

    Thought SKS was standing up to Trump and backing the Mullahs ?

    “Eleven of the twelve F-22 Raptors that departed earlier today from RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk, England have landed at Ovda Airbase in the Negev Desert of Southern Israel, joining the ongoing buildup by the U.S. Air Force at bases across the Middle East. One of the F-22s was forced to return to RAF Lakenheath shortly after takeoff due to a suspected fuel leak, though it will likely make the trip to Israel by Friday“

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2026374941075980687?s=61

    No. I have been saying not true for a few days. It’s not a u-turn by the UK government, for UK media got the story of Starmer saying no from State side, not this side of the pond. Starmer was at all times completely on board with military action hitting Iran’s nuclear weapons programme, just a question of timing during talks and clarity of mission statement allies can share with their countries. Trump had already given up the idea of regime change by the time this story emerged.

    I’m not expecting any mention of Chagos in Trumps State of the Union address, but I am expecting Trump to “call out” Starmer and the Labour Government on washing their hands standing up to China on imprisoning of Jimmy Lai and Hong Kong Democracy leaders.
    And I predict Kemi will also echo this point of Trumps at PMQs.
    Lakenheath is home to the USAF 48th Fighter Wing

    Like nearby Mildenhall there are no RAF personnel on the ground they are in reality USAF bases

    Hence my regular calls for them to be closed down..

    Starmer has steadfastly refudlsed, so far, for the US to use the RAF base at Fairford and the Chagos base both of which have runways suitable to the larger US transport planes.

    It would be logistically near impossible under current protocols to ban the USAF from using Mildenhall and Lakenheath and would probably see the end of NATO as the minimum US retaliation.
    If Badenoch backs Trump it will be another stupid own goal that the electorate will not like nor support.
    I think you have completely missed the key point.

    Starmer is backing Trump in this war. At no point wasn’t he.
    He's told him he can't use Fairford or Chagos

    He has no control over Mildenhall or Lakenheath
    No. He hasn’t told him he can’t use Fairford or Chagos. How do you know he has. Downing Street hadn’t told you at any point. So where did you get it from?

    One of the weaknesses of our social media news age, so many outlets repeat news that come from one single source “of truth.” You find it most common in sport and football coverage. On continent big football clubs have cozy relationships with local reporters, something is printed about a player or manager, target of the club, and all the English media lap it up, everyone repeats it, discussion programmes discuss it. It’s absolutely everywhere. But it’s utterly made up. Though, with an original purpose behind it.

    Same here with this story. What you are taking as a position of Starmer and his government, actually came to UK media from the US, whilst discussions were still going on between the countries, as a White House pressuring tactic.
    What has UK government said about it that supports the idea of final position taken? Did you notice what the Downing Street briefing had to say about it? Who else has a separate source, other than what came from the Times and their source?

    If you can’t answer these questions key to your opinion, why are you so certain of your opinion?
    So you suggest that when Sky, BBC, C4, Guardian, Ind, Times, Mail and even GB News report a fact with corroborative comments from independent journalists, they are wrong and you're right.

    Yes. You’ve summoned up my position perfectly.

    Pleased to meet you. I’m MoonRabbit. 😇

    The story is world wide as fact, but it all comes from one single source that wasn’t telling the truth, and news organisations just report what other news organisations are saying, is exactly how it works in this internet news age.

    We may be just minutes away from Kemi asking Starmer why he refused US permission to launch hit from Garcia and Fairfield, with Starmer replying he never did, he was in discussions about it, that’s all, in what all those same news organisations will call another Starmer U-Turn.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,756
    MattW said:

    Looking at the tweet, Unity vs Division is a good - if not very crisp - line.

    There is an argument that (one aspect of) politics is alternating between Union and Division, with people veering between joining something and leaving something from decade to decade
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,147
    edited 11:37AM

    stodge said:

    Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice.
    Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
    If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM

    Why?
    A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory.
    If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
    Looking at the technical side of your answer to Stodge.

    All the Labour MPs and LibDems MPs are in favour of voting for it. Soon as it’s in the Commons it’s a slam dunk.

    The Conservative delaying tactic in the Lords has failed.

    https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/uk-ratification-chagos-archipelago-treaty-will-not-violate-international-law

    And to rely so much on what Trump posts on Truth Social, just hours after his State Department rubber stamped it, is not the firm ground of US rejection its been bigged up to be.

    The argument is done and dusted, ambitious Mauritius ARE in bed with US and India. The 99 year lease idea Mauritius offered US in 2019 before UK even knew about it!

    Did everyone notice Mauritius leader gave Trump authority to bomb Iran from Chagos, and urged him to get on with Iran Regime Change? Cheeky doesn’t even cover it. Once Chagos deal goes through commons in May, it’s hard to know what UK role in Chagos is going forward, I confidently predict Mauritius will completely ignore and by pass UK and go straight to US and India for sucking up and orders, whilst gorging on the billions we are giving them! How can I be so sure? It’s what they’ve already been doing!

    Do we know what Mauritius is like as a holiday destination, do we need to send our man from Knappers Gazette?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,838
    edited 11:37AM

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.

    https://x.com/crmiller1/status/2026321878952898977

    It is highly disturbing, and we are nowhere in addressing aggressive Chinese spying, and the fact that all Chinese companies are agents of the Chinese Communist Party.

    We have this extremely foolish policy of Russia as public enemy number 1, but craven submission to China, which is the power behind Russia. Russia can't even produce EVs, let alone use them to gather geographical data. It is tokenism and cowardice.

    We should get rid of the ban on ICE vehicles to reduce prices and protect consumers, before taking whatever action is necessary against Chinese EV producers.
    What exactly do you think you have that would be of interest to the Chinese state? I'm seriously interested. I think you're suffering from Walter Mitty syndrome as are many Tories on this site.
    I don't agree with you on much but I am 100% with you on this. The nebulous fear that your data is somehow interest to a hostile body makes me laugh.
    Your personal data will get sifted to see if it’s of interest. If it isn’t, it will be sold on to the aggregating data brokers.

    This represents a threat to your *personal* security. Various crooks use the “jigsaw” technique to pull together enough information to do identity theft etc.
    I also don't think it is paranoia not to want a hostile state tracking you everywhere you go or with access to all your security cameras.

    Cars are particularly bad as the only way to stop the information leak is to Faraday cage the transmitter, which is not exactly practical.

    Chinese tat at home should be stuck on a VLAN with no access from the internet other than through your own VPN, but this is well beyond most users.

    I don't really understand why the government is so lax about allowing all this stuff through, particularly as half of it doesn't actually meet any kind of electrical standard.
    "I also don't think it is paranoia not to want a hostile state tracking you everywhere you go".

    I assume you are the hero of this movie. How many people do the Chinese dedicated to following your every move? Five? Ten?
    I am not personally _that_ concerned and I block everything partially out of sheer bloody mindedness, but if the data is of no value then why is it collected? It _is_ collected, as anyone who logs these things will know.

    Thirty or forty years ago you used to be able to travel around the country pretty much at will without anyone demanding to know where you are going. Now you can't go past a roundabout without it being logged.

    Do we actually feel any safer as a result?
    This is tangential to the broader discussion, but as someone who could be called a data scientist... an awful lot of data is collected because it can be, and so someone thinks if it can, let's collect it, even though they have no analysis plan. An awful lot of data gets collected and no-one ever looks at it.
    That is almost certainly true. A lot of this data is collected because it can be, and nobody ever looks at it. At least, not yet.

    The problem is that any data collection becomes a risk.

    I laughed at this one:
    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2026/feb/24/accidental-hacker-how-one-man-gained-control-robots-

    A perfect example of why these things should not be allowed on the internet.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,995
    Selebian said:

    boulay said:

    Cicero said:

    Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.

    He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.

    One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.

    There's something nasty in the woodshed...

    I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.

    Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.

    On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.

    For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
    Even though PB is very male, very educated and very nerdy compared to the mainstream we're still a diverse bunch who like to argue with each other and I think it's rare that there's a unified collective view on anything.

    Sure, for example, there are a few posters who are consistently very optimistic about Ukraine's chances and have predicted an imminent Russian collapse for a long time. I remember how Chinese truck tyres were going to cripple Russian logistics too. But that's not the collective PB.com view. You'll find other posters injecting a note of realism or contrarianism into such debates.

    It irritates me when posters pretend there's a monolithic PB.com opinion that they can present themselves as a wise contrary savant providing corrections to.
    The diversity and (limited) accuracy of entries to the PB predictions competition very much supports your point.
    Incidentally, Chinese truck tires (among other things) did cripple a part of Russian logistics. They still can't, 4 years later, get logistics to work more than a short distance from their railheads.

    Because they don't have a sizeable number of good quality, military, heavy trucks.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,262
    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Looking at the tweet, Unity vs Division is a good - if not very crisp - line.

    There is an argument that (one aspect of) politics is alternating between Union and Division, with people veering between joining something and leaving something from decade to decade
    One of the things I want to ask The Rest is Politics to focus on is how to rebuild civic society from the grass roots, rather than filling their Leading strand with interviewees who are political elites whom they happen to know because they are of the same stripe.

    They always say that it needs to be redone at the bottom.

    So why don't they interview some people who have done it, who can therefore be models? Such people are everywhere.

    But I still have not identified the best route to get feedback in to be listened to.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,762

    Sandpit said:

    In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.

    https://x.com/crmiller1/status/2026321878952898977

    Probably reflects EV (ie tech/data) conpanies' hunger for data to develop self driving tech/AI more than the pernicious reach of the CCP.
    Exactly. Sending data to China doesn't mean "China are spying on us" anymore than a company processing data from their EVs on AWS would mean that "the US are spying on us".

    You should assume that any device with a network connection is likely sending some data to some server somewhere, in most cases this is for relatively benign things like logging usage and faults, software updates, activation, licensing and so on.

    Connected vehicles almost always have some sort of data processing/logging, as the manufactures want to monitor the operation of the vehicles, and process the data for things like driver assistance training and feeding into datasets for mapping/GIS.

    But yes a Chinese EV will almost certainly send some data to a service like Alibaba Cloud or Tencent Cloud, and a Western EV will do exactly the same type of data processing but send it to AWS, Azure, etc.

    Providing the companies are transparent about what they are doing a Chinese EV isn't really any more of a problem/threat than any other EV.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,995
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    stodge said:

    Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice.
    Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
    If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM

    Why?
    A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory.
    If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
    You could send Michael Crick on a six month fact finding mission to every bingo hall laundrette bar pub restaurant football stadium nightclub prison factory swimming pool park museum art gallery and brothel in the country and you wouldn't find a single person male female or trans who would mention the Chagos Islands. It is something only spoken about amongst a weird subset of PBers
    You should get out more.

    Chagos, like Mandelbrot, the Prince formerly known as Andrew and Epstein, has entered the non-political discourse. Coffee machine banter.

    “We are paying to give away these islands. How fucked is that?”

    Goes with

    “We are ruled by nonces and thieves. Bet they are sweating now, though. Ha ha.”
    They're imagining an island with a 25 bed luxury chateau and swimming pool with cocktails and masseuses.

    Not the radio active one that looks like Chernobyl.
    Chagos isn't radioactive and doesn't look like Chernobyl.

    You are thinking of the nuclear tests sites in the Pacific.

    This is what Chagos looks like


  • TazTaz Posts: 25,379
    boulay said:

    Cicero said:

    Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.

    He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.

    One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.

    There's something nasty in the woodshed...

    I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.

    Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.

    On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.

    For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
    Widely read in Westminster. Here.

    God knows why unless the political classes want the view of middle class, middle aged, white male, centrists and just want their views confirmed back to them.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,262
    edited 11:45AM

    Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice.
    Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
    If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM

    Ben Judah did a (good) interview on that the other day with Ukraine the Latest, with a counterpoint presented. Here's the link again:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVep_k2iH0I
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,977

    stodge said:

    Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice.
    Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
    If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM

    Why?
    A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory.
    If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
    Looking at the technical side of your answer to Stodge.

    All the Labour MPs and LibDems MPs are in favour of voting for it. Soon as it’s in the Commons it’s a slam dunk.

    The Conservative delaying tactic in the Lords has failed.

    https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/uk-ratification-chagos-archipelago-treaty-will-not-violate-international-law

    And to rely so much on what Trump posts on Truth Social, just hours after his State Department rubber stamped it, is not the firm ground of US rejection its been bigged up to be.

    The argument is done and dusted, ambitious Mauritius ARE in bed with US and India. The 99 year lease idea Mauritius offered US in 2019 before UK even knew about it!

    Did everyone notice Mauritius leader gave Trump authority to bomb Iran from Chagos, and urged him to get on with Iran Regime Change? Cheeky doesn’t even cover it. Once Chagos deal goes through commons in May, it’s hard to know what UK role in Chagos is going forward, I confidently predict Mauritius will completely ignore and by pass UK and go straight to US and India for sucking up and orders, whilst gorging on the billions we are giving them! How can I be so sure? It’s what they’ve already been doing!

    Do we know what Mauritius is like as a holiday destination, do we need to send our man from Knappers Gazette?
    I would suggest you look at who is opposing it in the Lords

    Lord Callanan - conservative

    Lord West - crossbench - labour peer

    Lord Purvis - liberal

    The reason this is being withdrawn is cross party support in the HOL against the deal

    It will not be coming back anytime soon due to cross party opposition

    Also speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, reported Mandelson's flight risk to the police
  • glwglw Posts: 10,762
    edited 11:46AM
    Scott_xP said:

    @robinwigglesworth.ft.com‬

    “Blade Runner depicted a world in which some people’s entire job is simply to clean up after bad robots, thereby accurately predicting the vibecoding trend.”

    Also features one of the best chart subheadings of all time?

    https://bsky.app/profile/robinwigglesworth.ft.com/post/3mfo7wml3uc2c

    I think I've said before that it's only a matter of time until counter/anti-AI is a big business. And given everyone else is chasing AGI/ASI it might be a better use of capital to be on the other side.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,444
    MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Looking at the tweet, Unity vs Division is a good - if not very crisp - line.

    There is an argument that (one aspect of) politics is alternating between Union and Division, with people veering between joining something and leaving something from decade to decade
    One of the things I want to ask The Rest is Politics to focus on is how to rebuild civic society from the grass roots, rather than filling their Leading strand with interviewees who are political elites whom they happen to know because they are of the same stripe.

    They always say that it needs to be redone at the bottom.

    So why don't they interview some people who have done it, who can therefore be models? Such people are everywhere.

    But I still have not identified the best route to get feedback in to be listened to.
    You didn't go to the right school to be listened to.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,865
    Lindsay Hoyle, coppers nark!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,995

    stodge said:

    Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice.
    Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
    If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM

    Why?
    A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory.
    If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
    Looking at the technical side of your answer to Stodge.

    All the Labour MPs and LibDems MPs are in favour of voting for it. Soon as it’s in the Commons it’s a slam dunk.

    The Conservative delaying tactic in the Lords has failed.

    https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/uk-ratification-chagos-archipelago-treaty-will-not-violate-international-law

    And to rely so much on what Trump posts on Truth Social, just hours after his State Department rubber stamped it, is not the firm ground of US rejection its been bigged up to be.

    The argument is done and dusted, ambitious Mauritius ARE in bed with US and India. The 99 year lease idea Mauritius offered US in 2019 before UK even knew about it!

    Did everyone notice Mauritius leader gave Trump authority to bomb Iran from Chagos, and urged him to get on with Iran Regime Change? Cheeky doesn’t even cover it. Once Chagos deal goes through commons in May, it’s hard to know what UK role in Chagos is going forward, I confidently predict Mauritius will completely ignore and by pass UK and go straight to US and India for sucking up and orders, whilst gorging on the billions we are giving them! How can I be so sure? It’s what they’ve already been doing!

    Do we know what Mauritius is like as a holiday destination, do we need to send our man from Knappers Gazette?
    I would suggest you look at who is opposing it in the Lords

    Lord Callanan - conservative

    Lord West - crossbench - labour peer

    Lord Purvis - liberal

    The reason this is being withdrawn is cross party support in the HOL against the deal

    It will not be coming back anytime soon due to cross party opposition

    Also speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, reported Mandelson's flight risk to the police
    According to various statements, it was the "Lord Speaker" who reported Mandlebrot's flight risk to the police. Not the Speaker of the Commons

    https://www.parliament.uk/business/lords/lord-speaker/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,112
    Credit where it’s due:

    https://x.com/zelenskyyua/status/2026622969687036394

    Thank you to @Keir_Starmer and the United Kingdom for a new support package for Ukraine. It includes funding to restore our energy grid and expand generation capacity, humanitarian assistance for frontline communities, and a concrete contribution to holding Russia accountable for war crimes.

    Britain has also approved its largest sanctions package since 2022, targeting Russia’s oil and gas revenues and its shadow tanker fleet. This is the path to make diplomacy effective – the noose must tighten so that Russia is forced toward peace.

    Thank you to the people of Britain for standing with Ukraine during all these years.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,865

    stodge said:

    Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice.
    Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
    If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM

    Why?
    A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory.
    If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
    Looking at the technical side of your answer to Stodge.

    All the Labour MPs and LibDems MPs are in favour of voting for it. Soon as it’s in the Commons it’s a slam dunk.

    The Conservative delaying tactic in the Lords has failed.

    https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/uk-ratification-chagos-archipelago-treaty-will-not-violate-international-law

    And to rely so much on what Trump posts on Truth Social, just hours after his State Department rubber stamped it, is not the firm ground of US rejection its been bigged up to be.

    The argument is done and dusted, ambitious Mauritius ARE in bed with US and India. The 99 year lease idea Mauritius offered US in 2019 before UK even knew about it!

    Did everyone notice Mauritius leader gave Trump authority to bomb Iran from Chagos, and urged him to get on with Iran Regime Change? Cheeky doesn’t even cover it. Once Chagos deal goes through commons in May, it’s hard to know what UK role in Chagos is going forward, I confidently predict Mauritius will completely ignore and by pass UK and go straight to US and India for sucking up and orders, whilst gorging on the billions we are giving them! How can I be so sure? It’s what they’ve already been doing!

    Do we know what Mauritius is like as a holiday destination, do we need to send our man from Knappers Gazette?
    I would suggest you look at who is opposing it in the Lords

    Lord Callanan - conservative

    Lord West - crossbench - labour peer

    Lord Purvis - liberal

    The reason this is being withdrawn is cross party support in the HOL against the deal

    It will not be coming back anytime soon due to cross party opposition

    Also speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, reported Mandelson's flight risk to the police
    According to various statements, it was the "Lord Speaker" who reported Mandlebrot's flight risk to the police. Not the Speaker of the Commons

    https://www.parliament.uk/business/lords/lord-speaker/
    Times now reporting it was Hoyle
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,995

    stodge said:

    Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice.
    Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
    If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM

    Why?
    A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory.
    If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
    Looking at the technical side of your answer to Stodge.

    All the Labour MPs and LibDems MPs are in favour of voting for it. Soon as it’s in the Commons it’s a slam dunk.

    The Conservative delaying tactic in the Lords has failed.

    https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/uk-ratification-chagos-archipelago-treaty-will-not-violate-international-law

    And to rely so much on what Trump posts on Truth Social, just hours after his State Department rubber stamped it, is not the firm ground of US rejection its been bigged up to be.

    The argument is done and dusted, ambitious Mauritius ARE in bed with US and India. The 99 year lease idea Mauritius offered US in 2019 before UK even knew about it!

    Did everyone notice Mauritius leader gave Trump authority to bomb Iran from Chagos, and urged him to get on with Iran Regime Change? Cheeky doesn’t even cover it. Once Chagos deal goes through commons in May, it’s hard to know what UK role in Chagos is going forward, I confidently predict Mauritius will completely ignore and by pass UK and go straight to US and India for sucking up and orders, whilst gorging on the billions we are giving them! How can I be so sure? It’s what they’ve already been doing!

    Do we know what Mauritius is like as a holiday destination, do we need to send our man from Knappers Gazette?
    I would suggest you look at who is opposing it in the Lords

    Lord Callanan - conservative

    Lord West - crossbench - labour peer

    Lord Purvis - liberal

    The reason this is being withdrawn is cross party support in the HOL against the deal

    It will not be coming back anytime soon due to cross party opposition

    Also speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, reported Mandelson's flight risk to the police
    According to various statements, it was the "Lord Speaker" who reported Mandlebrot's flight risk to the police. Not the Speaker of the Commons

    https://www.parliament.uk/business/lords/lord-speaker/
    Times now reporting it was Hoyle
    Interesting

    The 4am text from Mandy said Lord Speaker.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,977

    stodge said:

    Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice.
    Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
    If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM

    Why?
    A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory.
    If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
    Looking at the technical side of your answer to Stodge.

    All the Labour MPs and LibDems MPs are in favour of voting for it. Soon as it’s in the Commons it’s a slam dunk.

    The Conservative delaying tactic in the Lords has failed.

    https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/uk-ratification-chagos-archipelago-treaty-will-not-violate-international-law

    And to rely so much on what Trump posts on Truth Social, just hours after his State Department rubber stamped it, is not the firm ground of US rejection its been bigged up to be.

    The argument is done and dusted, ambitious Mauritius ARE in bed with US and India. The 99 year lease idea Mauritius offered US in 2019 before UK even knew about it!

    Did everyone notice Mauritius leader gave Trump authority to bomb Iran from Chagos, and urged him to get on with Iran Regime Change? Cheeky doesn’t even cover it. Once Chagos deal goes through commons in May, it’s hard to know what UK role in Chagos is going forward, I confidently predict Mauritius will completely ignore and by pass UK and go straight to US and India for sucking up and orders, whilst gorging on the billions we are giving them! How can I be so sure? It’s what they’ve already been doing!

    Do we know what Mauritius is like as a holiday destination, do we need to send our man from Knappers Gazette?
    I would suggest you look at who is opposing it in the Lords

    Lord Callanan - conservative

    Lord West - crossbench - labour peer

    Lord Purvis - liberal

    The reason this is being withdrawn is cross party support in the HOL against the deal

    It will not be coming back anytime soon due to cross party opposition

    Also speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, reported Mandelson's flight risk to the police
    According to various statements, it was the "Lord Speaker" who reported Mandlebrot's flight risk to the police. Not the Speaker of the Commons

    https://www.parliament.uk/business/lords/lord-speaker/
    I think he may require an apology
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,347
    dixiedean said:

    stjohn said:

    Apologies. Last night I posted the wrong Betfair prices for G+D by election. I posted the odds for coming 2nd and not for winning!

    Correct odds now are

    To win
    Greens 1.59
    Reform 4.7
    Labour 5.8

    To come 2nd
    Reform 1.63
    Greens 4.8
    Labour 4.4

    So the 6/1 I got on Labour to win is not as good as I thought. But still a bit of value currently.

    As are Labour and the Greens to come second.
    The combination of those odds suggest Labour will come third, which is at odds with the view of their camp and the fact of Starmer’s recent campaign visit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,995

    stodge said:

    Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice.
    Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
    If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM

    Why?
    A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory.
    If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
    Looking at the technical side of your answer to Stodge.

    All the Labour MPs and LibDems MPs are in favour of voting for it. Soon as it’s in the Commons it’s a slam dunk.

    The Conservative delaying tactic in the Lords has failed.

    https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/uk-ratification-chagos-archipelago-treaty-will-not-violate-international-law

    And to rely so much on what Trump posts on Truth Social, just hours after his State Department rubber stamped it, is not the firm ground of US rejection its been bigged up to be.

    The argument is done and dusted, ambitious Mauritius ARE in bed with US and India. The 99 year lease idea Mauritius offered US in 2019 before UK even knew about it!

    Did everyone notice Mauritius leader gave Trump authority to bomb Iran from Chagos, and urged him to get on with Iran Regime Change? Cheeky doesn’t even cover it. Once Chagos deal goes through commons in May, it’s hard to know what UK role in Chagos is going forward, I confidently predict Mauritius will completely ignore and by pass UK and go straight to US and India for sucking up and orders, whilst gorging on the billions we are giving them! How can I be so sure? It’s what they’ve already been doing!

    Do we know what Mauritius is like as a holiday destination, do we need to send our man from Knappers Gazette?
    I would suggest you look at who is opposing it in the Lords

    Lord Callanan - conservative

    Lord West - crossbench - labour peer

    Lord Purvis - liberal

    The reason this is being withdrawn is cross party support in the HOL against the deal

    It will not be coming back anytime soon due to cross party opposition

    Also speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, reported Mandelson's flight risk to the police
    According to various statements, it was the "Lord Speaker" who reported Mandlebrot's flight risk to the police. Not the Speaker of the Commons

    https://www.parliament.uk/business/lords/lord-speaker/
    I think he may require an apology
    It seems there is confusion over this - Times reporting one thing, when Mandy’s text was read out, another.

    Given he is a Lord, the Lord Speaker would make more sense.

    If any of this makes sense
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,625

    Lindsay Hoyle, coppers nark!

    He loves being centre of attention. Not sure why it matters.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,262
    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Looking at the tweet, Unity vs Division is a good - if not very crisp - line.

    There is an argument that (one aspect of) politics is alternating between Union and Division, with people veering between joining something and leaving something from decade to decade
    One of the things I want to ask The Rest is Politics to focus on is how to rebuild civic society from the grass roots, rather than filling their Leading strand with interviewees who are political elites whom they happen to know because they are of the same stripe.

    They always say that it needs to be redone at the bottom.

    So why don't they interview some people who have done it, who can therefore be models? Such people are everywhere.

    But I still have not identified the best route to get feedback in to be listened to.
    You didn't go to the right school to be listened to.
    As it happens I probably did, but I'm not an Eton Oddball or an Oxford PPE Wanker.

    And I deliberately pivoted to a more normal university, rather than wanting a bigger version of independent school.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,647

    stodge said:

    Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice.
    Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
    If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM

    Why?
    A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally ...
    LOL to that one.
    Starmer has done a great deal to accommodate Trump - in the absence of any reciprocal consideration at all.
    Any "strain" is entirely down to the counterparty in that relationship.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,426
    Have Labour tried attacking the Greens or just trying to pretend only they can stop Reform in Gorton and Denton?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,569

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    stodge said:

    Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice.
    Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
    If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM

    Why?
    A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory.
    If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
    You could send Michael Crick on a six month fact finding mission to every bingo hall laundrette bar pub restaurant football stadium nightclub prison factory swimming pool park museum art gallery and brothel in the country and you wouldn't find a single person male female or trans who would mention the Chagos Islands. It is something only spoken about amongst a weird subset of PBers
    You should get out more.

    Chagos, like Mandelbrot, the Prince formerly known as Andrew and Epstein, has entered the non-political discourse. Coffee machine banter.

    “We are paying to give away these islands. How fucked is that?”

    Goes with

    “We are ruled by nonces and thieves. Bet they are sweating now, though. Ha ha.”
    They're imagining an island with a 25 bed luxury chateau and swimming pool with cocktails and masseuses.

    Not the radio active one that looks like Chernobyl.
    Chagos isn't radioactive and doesn't look like Chernobyl.

    You are thinking of the nuclear tests sites in the Pacific.

    This is what Chagos looks like


    I wouldn’t want a 99 year lease on an island that, based on Trump’s views on climate change, will be underwater in 99 years time.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,387

    stodge said:

    Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice.
    Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
    If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM

    Why?
    A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory.
    If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
    Looking at the technical side of your answer to Stodge.

    All the Labour MPs and LibDems MPs are in favour of voting for it. Soon as it’s in the Commons it’s a slam dunk.

    The Conservative delaying tactic in the Lords has failed.

    https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/uk-ratification-chagos-archipelago-treaty-will-not-violate-international-law

    And to rely so much on what Trump posts on Truth Social, just hours after his State Department rubber stamped it, is not the firm ground of US rejection its been bigged up to be.

    The argument is done and dusted, ambitious Mauritius ARE in bed with US and India. The 99 year lease idea Mauritius offered US in 2019 before UK even knew about it!

    Did everyone notice Mauritius leader gave Trump authority to bomb Iran from Chagos, and urged him to get on with Iran Regime Change? Cheeky doesn’t even cover it. Once Chagos deal goes through commons in May, it’s hard to know what UK role in Chagos is going forward, I confidently predict Mauritius will completely ignore and by pass UK and go straight to US and India for sucking up and orders, whilst gorging on the billions we are giving them! How can I be so sure? It’s what they’ve already been doing!

    Do we know what Mauritius is like as a holiday destination, do we need to send our man from Knappers Gazette?
    I would suggest you look at who is opposing it in the Lords

    Lord Callanan - conservative

    Lord West - crossbench - labour peer

    Lord Purvis - liberal

    The reason this is being withdrawn is cross party support in the HOL against the deal

    It will not be coming back anytime soon due to cross party opposition

    Also speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, reported Mandelson's flight risk to the police
    According to various statements, it was the "Lord Speaker" who reported Mandlebrot's flight risk to the police. Not the Speaker of the Commons

    https://www.parliament.uk/business/lords/lord-speaker/
    I think he may require an apology
    It seems there is confusion over this - Times reporting one thing, when Mandy’s text was read out, another.

    Given he is a Lord, the Lord Speaker would make more sense.

    If any of this makes sense
    Mandy got the title wrong in a text to his friends. Hoyle admits he reported Mandy. Per Times.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,204
    edited 12:07PM
    First day this year when the temperature has gone above freezing. A lovely sunny day. Spring cannot be so far away, the snow is thawing slowly. I can only imagine the relief in Kyiv where the thaw seems even more established. They have had a horrible winter, but still they stand against the monster in the Kremlin.

    Yesterday we celebrated Estonian independence day- the 108th, since you ask- and commemorated the anniversary of the full scale war by Russia against Ukraine. The madness in Russia is costing them dearly, hundreds of thousands dead, trillions in economic cost, but still they persist in their disastrous choice. Ukraine still stands- bloodied but unbowed.

    Eventually Putin will fail... We can hold out until then.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,625
    Mistake from Kemi to try to be constructive at PMQs.

    She should have gone on the Nottingham killer and Labour's manifesto.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,262
    boulay said:

    Cicero said:

    Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.

    He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.

    One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.

    There's something nasty in the woodshed...

    I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.

    Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.

    On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.

    For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
    Thank-you for listening, so I do not have to do so.

  • TazTaz Posts: 25,379

    Have Labour tried attacking the Greens or just trying to pretend only they can stop Reform in Gorton and Denton?

    I think, like with the Lib Dem’s, they’re friendly enemies.

    They oppose Reform and the Tories more so my enemies enemy is my friend. They will learn a hard lesson.
  • If Labour holds the seat, what does this mean for SKS and Andy Burnham?
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 119
    Jeeze, Angry Starmer is not a good watch.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,757

    Lindsay Hoyle, coppers nark!

    Hoyle says that he heard it on the grapevine while in the British Virgin Islands last week. (What was he doing there?)
  • eekeek Posts: 32,666

    Selebian said:

    boulay said:

    Cicero said:

    Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.

    He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.

    One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.

    There's something nasty in the woodshed...

    I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.

    Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.

    On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.

    For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
    Even though PB is very male, very educated and very nerdy compared to the mainstream we're still a diverse bunch who like to argue with each other and I think it's rare that there's a unified collective view on anything.

    Sure, for example, there are a few posters who are consistently very optimistic about Ukraine's chances and have predicted an imminent Russian collapse for a long time. I remember how Chinese truck tyres were going to cripple Russian logistics too. But that's not the collective PB.com view. You'll find other posters injecting a note of realism or contrarianism into such debates.

    It irritates me when posters pretend there's a monolithic PB.com opinion that they can present themselves as a wise contrary savant providing corrections to.
    The diversity and (limited) accuracy of entries to the PB predictions competition very much supports your point.
    Incidentally, Chinese truck tires (among other things) did cripple a part of Russian logistics. They still can't, 4 years later, get logistics to work more than a short distance from their railheads.

    Because they don't have a sizeable number of good quality, military, heavy trucks.
    The other thing to add is that Russian Logistics are still manual in a way the rest of the world isn’t. I don’t even think they use pallets the way we do let alone containers
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,625
    Sweeney74 said:

    Jeeze, Angry Starmer is not a good watch.

    He's Harry Flashman.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,838
    edited 12:15PM

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    stodge said:

    Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice.
    Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
    If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM

    Why?
    A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory.
    If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
    You could send Michael Crick on a six month fact finding mission to every bingo hall laundrette bar pub restaurant football stadium nightclub prison factory swimming pool park museum art gallery and brothel in the country and you wouldn't find a single person male female or trans who would mention the Chagos Islands. It is something only spoken about amongst a weird subset of PBers
    You should get out more.

    Chagos, like Mandelbrot, the Prince formerly known as Andrew and Epstein, has entered the non-political discourse. Coffee machine banter.

    “We are paying to give away these islands. How fucked is that?”

    Goes with

    “We are ruled by nonces and thieves. Bet they are sweating now, though. Ha ha.”
    They're imagining an island with a 25 bed luxury chateau and swimming pool with cocktails and masseuses.

    Not the radio active one that looks like Chernobyl.
    Chagos isn't radioactive and doesn't look like Chernobyl.

    You are thinking of the nuclear tests sites in the Pacific.

    This is what Chagos looks like


    I wouldn’t want a 99 year lease on an island that, based on Trump’s views on climate change, will be underwater in 99 years time.
    It is a coral island. The coral grows at a certain depth. If the sea level rises, the coral will rise with it, growing on the old skeletons.

    The island will only sink if the natural process is stopped (eg, by putting concrete on it).

    The same applies to the Maldives, BTW

    The Bahamas have survived about 300 million years of climate change and nearly 4000m of local sea level change.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,379
    Tuned in to PMQs for the second time since SKS became PM.

    Badenoch seems calm and I am surprised she has not gone with Mandelson.

    Clear pitch to young people here.

    Tuition fees. Youth unemployment.

    The dig at Reeves was comical.

    @HYUFD Perhaps you’ve got a bright button here as leader. Perhaps that’s why the tribal Labour lot don’t like her.

    Listening to Sir Drear, who’s as dull as a wet weekend in Wigan is about as pleasurable as having to clean out a students overused fleshlight.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,379

    If Labour holds the seat, what does this mean for SKS and Andy Burnham?

    You’re not stupid, you’re a bright guy. BTW hope you’re well.

    What do you think ?

    SKS is emboldened and his position shored up and, once again, Burnham is like one of TSE’s Stepmoms
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,625
    Taz said:

    Tuned in to PMQs for the second time since SKS became PM.

    Badenoch seems calm and I am surprised she has not gone with Mandelson.

    Clear pitch to young people here.

    Tuition fees. Youth unemployment.

    The dig at Reeves was comical.

    @HYUFD Perhaps you’ve got a bright button here as leader. Perhaps that’s why the tribal Labour lot don’t like her.

    Listening to Sir Drear, who’s as dull as a wet weekend in Wigan is about as pleasurable as having to clean out a students overused fleshlight.

    I think she's made a mistake today. She's trying to be humble and constructive but knobheads like Starmer just take that as weakness.

    She should have gone on the Nottingham killer and Labour's support for political correctness.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 119
    tlg86 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Jeeze, Angry Starmer is not a good watch.

    He's Harry Flashman.
    you what?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,574

    One more point on the Scottish MRP. Reform havent named a single candidate yet. They are behind the 8 ball (are they going to stand all 73 FPTP?)

    No doubt social media accounts being cleansed as we post...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,757
    edited 12:20PM
    Sweeney74 said:

    Jeeze, Angry Starmer is not a good watch.

    - What are you going to do about student loans, Prime Minister?
    - Stop talking the economy down! You are irrelevant!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,387
    Given the BVI has (as you would expect) an extradition treaty with the UK, what was he thinking? Is Hoyle gullible? Dense? Both?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,756
    edited 12:20PM
    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    Tuned in to PMQs for the second time since SKS became PM.

    Badenoch seems calm and I am surprised she has not gone with Mandelson.

    Clear pitch to young people here.

    Tuition fees. Youth unemployment.

    The dig at Reeves was comical.

    @HYUFD Perhaps you’ve got a bright button here as leader. Perhaps that’s why the tribal Labour lot don’t like her.

    Listening to Sir Drear, who’s as dull as a wet weekend in Wigan is about as pleasurable as having to clean out a students overused fleshlight.

    I think she's made a mistake today. She's trying to be humble and constructive but knobheads like Starmer just take that as weakness.

    She should have gone on the Nottingham killer and Labour's support for political correctness.
    She needs to be more punchy when he starts swerving the topic. All PMs have done it to varying degrees, but the rate at which Starmer wildly veers off topic and starts talking about completely different subjects in response to every question (we got breakfast clubs and free school meals again….) shows tremendous discourtesy and is I think the worst I’ve seen from a PM (and some of them were very bad at it!)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,318
    "She did it with the bloke over there", says Starmer pointing at Davey (talking about student loans).

    Ermm... isn't it supposed to be the "honourable bloke over there"???


  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 830
    Taz said:

    Tuned in to PMQs for the second time since SKS became PM.

    Badenoch seems calm and I am surprised she has not gone with Mandelson.

    Clear pitch to young people here.

    Tuition fees. Youth unemployment.

    The dig at Reeves was comical.

    @HYUFD Perhaps you’ve got a bright button here as leader. Perhaps that’s why the tribal Labour lot don’t like her.

    Listening to Sir Drear, who’s as dull as a wet weekend in Wigan is about as pleasurable as having to clean out a students overused fleshlight.

    Some of her comments today were way way over red lines of decency, responsibility, professionalism.

    Utterly contemptible.

    She's lucky Starmer is a gentleman.

    Rayner would have eviscerated her utter sewer comments

    That sligh smirk of egotistical arrogance sums her up?

    A vaccum of morality, ethics, core principle.

    Sewage politics which she and her Party should be ashamed of.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,865

    "She did it with the bloke over there", says Starmer pointing at Davey (talking about student loans).

    Ermm... isn't it supposed to be the "honourable bloke over there"???


    Right honourable
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,499
    edited 12:23PM

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    stodge said:

    Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice.
    Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
    If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM

    Why?
    A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory.
    If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
    You could send Michael Crick on a six month fact finding mission to every bingo hall laundrette bar pub restaurant football stadium nightclub prison factory swimming pool park museum art gallery and brothel in the country and you wouldn't find a single person male female or trans who would mention the Chagos Islands. It is something only spoken about amongst a weird subset of PBers
    You should get out more.

    Chagos, like Mandelbrot, the Prince formerly known as Andrew and Epstein, has entered the non-political discourse. Coffee machine banter.

    “We are paying to give away these islands. How fucked is that?”

    Goes with

    “We are ruled by nonces and thieves. Bet they are sweating now, though. Ha ha.”
    They're imagining an island with a 25 bed luxury chateau and swimming pool with cocktails and masseuses.

    Not the radio active one that looks like Chernobyl.
    Chagos isn't radioactive and doesn't look like Chernobyl.

    You are thinking of the nuclear tests sites in the Pacific.

    This is what Chagos looks like


    I wouldn’t want a 99 year lease on an island that, based on Trump’s views on climate change, will be underwater in 99 years time.
    It is a coral island. The coral grows at a certain depth. If the sea level rises, the coral will rise with it, growing on the old skeletons.

    The island will only sink if the natural process is stopped (eg, by putting concrete on it).

    The same applies to the Maldives, BTW

    The Bahamas have survived about 300 million years of climate change and nearly 4000m of local sea level change.
    But, using your figures, that's only about 0.01mm a year, compared with 4mm per year at the moment.

    (I know that's silly maths but the point about climate change is just how quickly it is happening, and whether we are able to keep up with that without massive economic costs, war, famine, sinking etc etc. I'm not sure if the coral can keep pace with 4mm + lots more storms).
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,379
    My MP now,speaking about Stanley South !!

    Making a pitch for Grange Villa, New Kyo and The Avenues.

    I’ve cycled round all three. All very poor and deprived areas with people there turning to Reform, so obviously hated by the centrists here (people like Rochdale will know these sort of areas and not judge) and blamed for their own poverty.

    If SKS and Luke can help these areas fantastic and I hope they get recognised for it.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 830
    Starmer destroys Farage.

    Utterly destroys him.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,757
    https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/2026632970048585872

    The Conservatives did more than anyone to make the student loans system a regressive as it is. But Badenoch is putting Starmer under pressure over it. She’s again making the running. And he has no real answer. They should have got ahead of it- grads a core part of Lab coalition.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,379
    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer destroys Farage.

    Utterly destroys him.

    He’s still sitting there.

    ‘You should be shot’ is a figure of speech. My wife has said it to me. I said it to my Dad. Neither construed it as a death threat.

    It’s so sad this embarrassment is the best available in Labour.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,977

    https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/2026632970048585872

    The Conservatives did more than anyone to make the student loans system a regressive as it is. But Badenoch is putting Starmer under pressure over it. She’s again making the running. And he has no real answer. They should have got ahead of it- grads a core part of Lab coalition.

    Coming from Lewis Goodall Kemi will be very pleased
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,147
    Taz said:

    Tuned in to PMQs for the second time since SKS became PM.

    Badenoch seems calm and I am surprised she has not gone with Mandelson.

    Clear pitch to young people here.

    Tuition fees. Youth unemployment.

    The dig at Reeves was comical.

    @HYUFD Perhaps you’ve got a bright button here as leader. Perhaps that’s why the tribal Labour lot don’t like her.

    Listening to Sir Drear, who’s as dull as a wet weekend in Wigan is about as pleasurable as having to clean out a students overused fleshlight.

    PMQs verdict. Starmer was just shaking like a leaf. He still comes across as a rank amateur in this PMQs stuff.
    Imagine him summing up at the end of a no confidence debate? He’d lose votes during his summing up.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 119

    "She did it with the bloke over there", says Starmer pointing at Davey (talking about student loans).

    Ermm... isn't it supposed to be the "honourable bloke over there"???


    Right honourable
    How many members of the Privy Council do we currently have?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,318
    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    Tuned in to PMQs for the second time since SKS became PM.

    Badenoch seems calm and I am surprised she has not gone with Mandelson.

    Clear pitch to young people here.

    Tuition fees. Youth unemployment.

    The dig at Reeves was comical.

    @HYUFD Perhaps you’ve got a bright button here as leader. Perhaps that’s why the tribal Labour lot don’t like her.

    Listening to Sir Drear, who’s as dull as a wet weekend in Wigan is about as pleasurable as having to clean out a students overused fleshlight.

    I think she's made a mistake today. She's trying to be humble and constructive but knobheads like Starmer just take that as weakness.

    She should have gone on the Nottingham killer and Labour's support for political correctness.
    The Nottingham killer?

    How would that work?

    The heinous crimes were committed under a Tory government!!!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,726

    Have Labour tried attacking the Greens or just trying to pretend only they can stop Reform in Gorton and Denton?

    They’ve called them nonces and drug dealers, does that count?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,112
    Sweeney74 said:

    "She did it with the bloke over there", says Starmer pointing at Davey (talking about student loans).

    Ermm... isn't it supposed to be the "honourable bloke over there"???


    Right honourable
    How many members of the Privy Council do we currently have?
    Wiki reckons 734.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_members_of_the_British_Privy_Council
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,865
    Sweeney74 said:

    "She did it with the bloke over there", says Starmer pointing at Davey (talking about student loans).

    Ermm... isn't it supposed to be the "honourable bloke over there"???


    Right honourable
    How many members of the Privy Council do we currently have?
    734 apparently
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,977

    Taz said:

    Tuned in to PMQs for the second time since SKS became PM.

    Badenoch seems calm and I am surprised she has not gone with Mandelson.

    Clear pitch to young people here.

    Tuition fees. Youth unemployment.

    The dig at Reeves was comical.

    @HYUFD Perhaps you’ve got a bright button here as leader. Perhaps that’s why the tribal Labour lot don’t like her.

    Listening to Sir Drear, who’s as dull as a wet weekend in Wigan is about as pleasurable as having to clean out a students overused fleshlight.

    PMQs verdict. Starmer was just shaking like a leaf. He still comes across as a rank amateur in this PMQs stuff.
    Imagine him summing up at the end of a no confidence debate? He’d lose votes during his summing up.
    Any student watching Starmer today would not have been impressed

    Kemi turning to help young people is very welcome and more to come apparently
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 22,052
    tlg86 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Jeeze, Angry Starmer is not a good watch.

    He's Harry Flashman.
    He can't be, Flashman was a national hero,
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 119

    Sweeney74 said:

    "She did it with the bloke over there", says Starmer pointing at Davey (talking about student loans).

    Ermm... isn't it supposed to be the "honourable bloke over there"???


    Right honourable
    How many members of the Privy Council do we currently have?
    734 apparently
    740 according to the downloadable csv here
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 830

    https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/2026632970048585872

    The Conservatives did more than anyone to make the student loans system a regressive as it is. But Badenoch is putting Starmer under pressure over it. She’s again making the running. And he has no real answer. They should have got ahead of it- grads a core part of Lab coalition.

    Coming from Lewis Goodall Kemi will be very pleased
    He answered her and some.

    She's going om one miniscule measure.

    He completely destroyed her by repeatedly listing far far greater improvements in cost of living

    She then resorted to puerile abuse referring to paedophiles.

    She isn't worthy to be labelled a bit of shit on your shoe

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,318
    Jim Pickard‬
    @pickardje.bsky.social‬

    very snide and sloppy of Kemi Badenoch to claim that Rachel Reeves worked “in customer services” at the Bank of England when she was in fact an economist there #pmqs

    https://bsky.app/profile/pickardje.bsky.social/post/3mfontwrwmc25
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,426
    Taz said:

    Have Labour tried attacking the Greens or just trying to pretend only they can stop Reform in Gorton and Denton?

    I think, like with the Lib Dem’s, they’re friendly enemies.

    They oppose Reform and the Tories more so my enemies enemy is my friend. They will learn a hard lesson.
    Actually I've just found a piece that states Labour have been quite shocked at the Greens turning themselves into a hideous George Galloway/Respect tribute act.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 22,052
    Sandpit said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    "She did it with the bloke over there", says Starmer pointing at Davey (talking about student loans).

    Ermm... isn't it supposed to be the "honourable bloke over there"???


    Right honourable
    How many members of the Privy Council do we currently have?
    Wiki reckons 734.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_members_of_the_British_Privy_Council
    Good God, I'd have assumed about 30 max.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,977
    Brixian59 said:

    https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/2026632970048585872

    The Conservatives did more than anyone to make the student loans system a regressive as it is. But Badenoch is putting Starmer under pressure over it. She’s again making the running. And he has no real answer. They should have got ahead of it- grads a core part of Lab coalition.

    Coming from Lewis Goodall Kemi will be very pleased
    He answered her and some.

    She's going om one miniscule measure.

    He completely destroyed her by repeatedly listing far far greater improvements in cost of living

    She then resorted to puerile abuse referring to paedophiles.

    She isn't worthy to be labelled a bit of shit on your shoe

    You are simply a nasty individual who seems to be triggered by Kemi
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 119
    Brixian59 said:

    https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/2026632970048585872

    The Conservatives did more than anyone to make the student loans system a regressive as it is. But Badenoch is putting Starmer under pressure over it. She’s again making the running. And he has no real answer. They should have got ahead of it- grads a core part of Lab coalition.

    Coming from Lewis Goodall Kemi will be very pleased
    He answered her and some.

    She's going om one miniscule measure.

    He completely destroyed her by repeatedly listing far far greater improvements in cost of living

    She then resorted to puerile abuse referring to paedophiles.

    She isn't worthy to be labelled a bit of shit on your shoe

    That is indeed one interpretation of today at PMQs.

    Other more sensible opinions are also available.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 830
    Taz said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Starmer destroys Farage.

    Utterly destroys him.

    He’s still sitting there.

    ‘You should be shot’ is a figure of speech. My wife has said it to me. I said it to my Dad. Neither construed it as a death threat.

    It’s so sad this embarrassment is the best available in Labour.

    When a public official says another public official should be shot, with all due respect to you, it is a million times more important, than some banter in your own home.

    We've lost Jo Cox and David Amrss we don't want any more.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,112

    Sandpit said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    "She did it with the bloke over there", says Starmer pointing at Davey (talking about student loans).

    Ermm... isn't it supposed to be the "honourable bloke over there"???


    Right honourable
    How many members of the Privy Council do we currently have?
    Wiki reckons 734.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_members_of_the_British_Privy_Council
    Good God, I'd have assumed about 30 max.
    The usual quorum for the Privy Council is the Cabinet, but everyone who’s ever been in the Cabinet remains a member, as are a lot of the Lords.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,318

    Taz said:

    Have Labour tried attacking the Greens or just trying to pretend only they can stop Reform in Gorton and Denton?

    I think, like with the Lib Dem’s, they’re friendly enemies.

    They oppose Reform and the Tories more so my enemies enemy is my friend. They will learn a hard lesson.
    Actually I've just found a piece that states Labour have been quite shocked at the Greens turning themselves into a hideous George Galloway/Respect tribute act.
    James Frayne in Telegraph is pointing out how hard the Greens are going to find keeping their new found tribe together when it is increasingly a mix of very socially conservative muslim voters who want action on Gaza etc and the young corbyn lefty ultra progressives who want to talk about trans rights all day long.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 119

    Sandpit said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    "She did it with the bloke over there", says Starmer pointing at Davey (talking about student loans).

    Ermm... isn't it supposed to be the "honourable bloke over there"???


    Right honourable
    How many members of the Privy Council do we currently have?
    Wiki reckons 734.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_members_of_the_British_Privy_Council
    Good God, I'd have assumed about 30 max.
    Members are appointed for life...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,112

    Taz said:

    Have Labour tried attacking the Greens or just trying to pretend only they can stop Reform in Gorton and Denton?

    I think, like with the Lib Dem’s, they’re friendly enemies.

    They oppose Reform and the Tories more so my enemies enemy is my friend. They will learn a hard lesson.
    Actually I've just found a piece that states Labour have been quite shocked at the Greens turning themselves into a hideous George Galloway/Respect tribute act.
    James Frayne in Telegraph is pointing out how hard the Greens are going to find keeping their new found tribe together when it is increasingly a mix of very socially conservative muslim voters who want action on Gaza etc and the young corbyn lefty ultra progressives who want to talk about trans rights all day long.
    Watching from a safe distance, “Gays for Gaza” has to be the funniest political movement in decades.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,625

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    Tuned in to PMQs for the second time since SKS became PM.

    Badenoch seems calm and I am surprised she has not gone with Mandelson.

    Clear pitch to young people here.

    Tuition fees. Youth unemployment.

    The dig at Reeves was comical.

    @HYUFD Perhaps you’ve got a bright button here as leader. Perhaps that’s why the tribal Labour lot don’t like her.

    Listening to Sir Drear, who’s as dull as a wet weekend in Wigan is about as pleasurable as having to clean out a students overused fleshlight.

    I think she's made a mistake today. She's trying to be humble and constructive but knobheads like Starmer just take that as weakness.

    She should have gone on the Nottingham killer and Labour's support for political correctness.
    The Nottingham killer?

    How would that work?

    The heinous crimes were committed under a Tory government!!!
    By officials who think there are too many black men detained for mental health reasons. The Labour manifesto:

    The operation of the Mental Health Act discriminates against Black people who are much more likely to be detained than others. Labour will modernise legislation to give patients greater choice, autonomy, enhanced rights and support, and ensure everyone is treated with dignity and respect throughout treatment.
  • TresTres Posts: 3,496

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.

    https://x.com/crmiller1/status/2026321878952898977

    It is highly disturbing, and we are nowhere in addressing aggressive Chinese spying, and the fact that all Chinese companies are agents of the Chinese Communist Party.

    We have this extremely foolish policy of Russia as public enemy number 1, but craven submission to China, which is the power behind Russia. Russia can't even produce EVs, let alone use them to gather geographical data. It is tokenism and cowardice.

    We should get rid of the ban on ICE vehicles to reduce prices and protect consumers, before taking whatever action is necessary against Chinese EV producers.
    What exactly do you think you have that would be of interest to the Chinese state? I'm seriously interested. I think you're suffering from Walter Mitty syndrome as are many Tories on this site.
    I don't agree with you on much but I am 100% with you on this. The nebulous fear that your data is somehow interest to a hostile body makes me laugh.
    Your personal data will get sifted to see if it’s of interest. If it isn’t, it will be sold on to the aggregating data brokers.

    This represents a threat to your *personal* security. Various crooks use the “jigsaw” technique to pull together enough information to do identity theft etc.
    I also don't think it is paranoia not to want a hostile state tracking you everywhere you go or with access to all your security cameras.

    Cars are particularly bad as the only way to stop the information leak is to Faraday cage the transmitter, which is not exactly practical.

    Chinese tat at home should be stuck on a VLAN with no access from the internet other than through your own VPN, but this is well beyond most users.

    I don't really understand why the government is so lax about allowing all this stuff through, particularly as half of it doesn't actually meet any kind of electrical standard.
    Yup.

    Like the comedies with the NHS data. Any sane IP manager would leverage that into a huge investment by drug companies etc while protecting the data. “Want to use the data? Well it physically has to stay in the U.K. So sadly you’ll need to set an onshore company and setup a large building full of U.K. employees to work with it. Sorry about that - rules.”

    The idiots seem to spend all their time trying to give it to Palantir etc.
    Isn't that what we already do with UK Biobank etc.?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,318

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Unbelievable. Farage gets in at PMQS, and again goes on the Chagos Islands. He's either given up on Gorton and Denton or is deliberately trying to lose it.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2026634689658655010
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,032

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    stodge said:

    Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice.
    Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
    If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM

    Why?
    A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory.
    If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
    You could send Michael Crick on a six month fact finding mission to every bingo hall laundrette bar pub restaurant football stadium nightclub prison factory swimming pool park museum art gallery and brothel in the country and you wouldn't find a single person male female or trans who would mention the Chagos Islands. It is something only spoken about amongst a weird subset of PBers
    You should get out more.

    Chagos, like Mandelbrot, the Prince formerly known as Andrew and Epstein, has entered the non-political discourse. Coffee machine banter.

    “We are paying to give away these islands. How fucked is that?”

    Goes with

    “We are ruled by nonces and thieves. Bet they are sweating now, though. Ha ha.”
    They're imagining an island with a 25 bed luxury chateau and swimming pool with cocktails and masseuses.

    Not the radio active one that looks like Chernobyl.
    Chagos isn't radioactive and doesn't look like Chernobyl.

    You are thinking of the nuclear tests sites in the Pacific.

    This is what Chagos looks like


    I wouldn’t want a 99 year lease on an island that, based on Trump’s views on climate change, will be underwater in 99 years time.
    It is a coral island. The coral grows at a certain depth. If the sea level rises, the coral will rise with it, growing on the old skeletons.

    The island will only sink if the natural process is stopped (eg, by putting concrete on it).

    The same applies to the Maldives, BTW

    The Bahamas have survived about 300 million years of climate change and nearly 4000m of local sea level change.
    Um, they have put an awful lot of concrete on it, like a whole US airbase.

    Also, the changes in sea level now are much faster than the last 300 million years.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,387

    Jim Pickard‬
    @pickardje.bsky.social‬

    very snide and sloppy of Kemi Badenoch to claim that Rachel Reeves worked “in customer services” at the Bank of England when she was in fact an economist there #pmqs

    https://bsky.app/profile/pickardje.bsky.social/post/3mfontwrwmc25

    As Pickard knows, it's at HBOS she was a customer service manager - rather a come down for a BoE economist. Kemi mis-spoke, if she said that.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 22,052
    Brixian59 said:

    https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/2026632970048585872

    The Conservatives did more than anyone to make the student loans system a regressive as it is. But Badenoch is putting Starmer under pressure over it. She’s again making the running. And he has no real answer. They should have got ahead of it- grads a core part of Lab coalition.

    Coming from Lewis Goodall Kemi will be very pleased
    He answered her and some.

    She's going om one miniscule measure.

    He completely destroyed her by repeatedly listing far far greater improvements in cost of living

    She then resorted to puerile abuse referring to paedophiles.

    She isn't worthy to be labelled a bit of shit on your shoe

    Of course Labour have form for banging on about paedophiles. Wasn't it old fatty Tom Watson who made unfounded claims about Tories based on the lies of a known liar Carl Beech? Sauce for the goose and all.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,865
    Rupert is back on the councillor poaching trail, one defection on Swale BC today from Reform
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