Some good news this morning for domestic electricity consumers. I've been quite critical of energy policy under this government but reducing the tax burden on electricity, and in particular relative to gas, is:
1) surprisingly progressive, with poor households not burning much gas 2) the right thing to do for the environment 3) matches our energy generation mix better and will, in the long term, wean us off imported fossil fuels
Hopefully this will now see a trend of electricity consumption becoming relatively more attractive after a long period of it going in the wrong direction. I also think it will make a marginal impact on Labour's prospects - it's very unusual for any government to actually bring down prices directly in this way.
If electricity costs can be gradually reduced relative to household gas consumption (incrementally tax the latter more, drive down costs on the former) then things like electric boilers start to become viable as an alternative to gas boilers or heat pumps.
I'm not convinced we'll ever see widespread retrofitting of heat pumps into old, modest sized houses, so something needs to give if we're going to reduce fossil fuel reliance in the long-term.
I suspect you'd accelerate process this if domestic tariffs reflected marginal energy costs. E.g. if we put everyone on 30-minute variable rates, that would incentivise batteries, heat pumps and so on, in addition to your gas boiler.
Introduce it over 10 years so you don't cause a demand shock - year 1, at least 10% of the tariff is time-variable, year 5, 50%.
Yes and get a break even of 55 years instead of 60 years, they will be queueing up with £20K wads for sure begging for heat pumps
Already widespread across the Highlands. People respond to incentives and matching variable supply with demand through a price signal seems a pretty obvious solution to me. Particularly in Scotland, where we have massive surplus electricity overnight.
Unless you'd like to continue subsiding people in the south of England?
Certainly not but when I look at the ROI on home reports , I would never get my money back as I would be dead long before break even. You spend £20K and you save 3-4 hundred a year, never happen given current costs.
In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.
Presumably they got the idea from Tesla, which sends a lot if such data back to servers in the US.
Both nations play fast and loose with other people's data. Though for the time being, only one is a dictatorship.
Just one? I'd have thought China was something of a dictatorship too.
While we're worrying about data misuse...
US threatens Anthropic with deadline in dispute on AI safeguards https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjrq1vwe73po US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth vowed to remove Anthropic from his agency's supply chain if the company declined to allow its artificial intelligence (AI) technology to be used across military applications. The threat was issued on Tuesday at a Pentagon meeting that Hegseth had demanded with Anthropic boss Dario Amodei, a source familiar with discussions told the BBC. "We continued good-faith conversations about our usage policy to ensure Anthropic can continue to support the government's national security mission in line with what our models can reliably and responsibly do," Anthropic said in a statement. A senior Pentagon official said Anthropic had until Friday evening to comply. A source told the BBC the tone of the discussion between Hegseth and Amodei was cordial, but Amodei laid out what Anthropic considers to be its red lines. These include involvement in autonomous kinetic operations in which AI tools make final military targeting decisions without human intervention. The use of Anthropic tools for mass domestic surveillance constitutes another red line, the source said. But the Pentagon official told the BBC the current conflict between the agency and Anthropic is unrelated to the use of autonomous weapons or mass surveillance. The official said that if Anthropic did not comply, Hegseth would ensure the Defense Production Act was invoked on the company. That measure could compel Anthropic executives to allow unrestricted use by the Pentagon on national security grounds. The official added that the Pentagon would simultaneously label Anthropic as a supply chain risk...
I don't think the Pentagon is telling the truth here (you will be shocked to learn). Those two points essentially are Anthropic's red lines.
I attended the pro-Ukraine rally in Trafalgar Square yesterday evening. I'd say the mood was a bit more subdued than in previous years, though the turnout held up better than I thought it would as we go into the fifth year of this cruel and pointless war, probably partly because of the extremely warm weather for the time of year. The huge square was bathed in blue and yellow, and as always the floodlit Portland stone buildings made a good backdrop.
I was standing with a good view down Whitehall to Parliament, with Nelson's column in the foreground and I couldn't help wondering what our greatest naval hero would have made of the war. Just as he repeatedly triumphed over larger forces using brilliant tactics and motivated and well-trained sailors, I'm sure he'd be particularly impressed by Ukraine's routing of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, without much of a navy of its own.
I'm very much afraid I'll be there next year, unless sanity unexpectedly prevails in Moscow.
Good on you for being there. 🇺🇦
Hopefully there won’t need to be a similar event next year, but that means everyone stepping up to help Ukraine in any way they can. Rafts of new sanctions announced yesterday are a good start, as was the €90bn loan from the EU from earlier this week. every country that wants to help should be shipping any weapons they can spare, and looking to buy Ukranian exports of anything that gives them hard cash.
I cannot believe the amount of absolute bollox being spouted about the guy with Tourette's saying a bad word, some big jessies about bubbling about fact he used a bad word and they never got comforted , WTF has happened to the latest generations , absolute girl's blouses.
I know I can't understand all of the reporting about this. The guy can't help it and he was there because of the huge success of a film about him in rasing awareness about tourettes. It seems like Hollywood luvvies will fawn over disability in films but recoil from it in real life.
In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.
It is highly disturbing, and we are nowhere in addressing aggressive Chinese spying, and the fact that all Chinese companies are agents of the Chinese Communist Party.
We have this extremely foolish policy of Russia as public enemy number 1, but craven submission to China, which is the power behind Russia. Russia can't even produce EVs, let alone use them to gather geographical data. It is tokenism and cowardice.
We should get rid of the ban on ICE vehicles to reduce prices and protect consumers, before taking whatever action is necessary against Chinese EV producers.
Russia is the #1 military threat, but China is definitely the #1 economic threat.
Electric cars can be very good, and they definitely have a place, but governments trying to force them to a very tight timescale is what’s causing the problems. All modern cars, whether EV or ICE, are ‘connected’ in some way. Chinese cars definitely shouldn’t be allowed to connect to Chinese servers, that’s for sure.
No they are not - how on earth could Russia invade us?
They can cut all communication cables, isolate critical elements of our military and we would be essentially defenceless. Russia does not need to land troops- a limited nuclear strike would kill so many that we would essentially cease to exit. Before you say that is a very far fetched scenario, I suggest you watch Russian TV, where a large number of official pundits suggest that they should actually do this in the very near future.
They utterly botched attack on Ukraine has not made Russia any less dangerous- in fact it is more dangerous, because they are increasingly desperate. Britain is absolutely in Putin's cross hairs.
Even the botched attack almost succeeded. The battle for Hostomel airport could easily have gone the other way, and if Russia had landed a few plane loads of troops, then Putin's 3 day op might just have been a more than an utter fantasy.
Huge credit for the few soldiers who held it until the Ukrainian mechanised forces arrived.
And to the Ukrainian generals who broke the law to reinforce the airport a few days before the invasion (thanks to British intelligence)
In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.
It is highly disturbing, and we are nowhere in addressing aggressive Chinese spying, and the fact that all Chinese companies are agents of the Chinese Communist Party.
We have this extremely foolish policy of Russia as public enemy number 1, but craven submission to China, which is the power behind Russia. Russia can't even produce EVs, let alone use them to gather geographical data. It is tokenism and cowardice.
We should get rid of the ban on ICE vehicles to reduce prices and protect consumers, before taking whatever action is necessary against Chinese EV producers.
Russia is the #1 military threat, but China is definitely the #1 economic threat.
Electric cars can be very good, and they definitely have a place, but governments trying to force them to a very tight timescale is what’s causing the problems. All modern cars, whether EV or ICE, are ‘connected’ in some way. Chinese cars definitely shouldn’t be allowed to connect to Chinese servers, that’s for sure.
No they are not - how on earth could Russia invade us?
Who do you think is our #1 military threat then, if not Russia?
Obviously. They can project power in a way Russia cannot.
Our local chapter of the Brotherhood of Saints Cyril and Methodius are off their fucking heads. The armed forces of the Russian Federation are a gang of half-starved junkies in ragged portyanki getting their shit pushed in by Ukraine and, at the same time, a gigantic and relentless mechanised killing mission that can bestride continents. Fucking ludicrous.
I cannot believe the amount of absolute bollox being spouted about the guy with Tourette's saying a bad word, some big jessies about bubbling about fact he used a bad word and they never got comforted , WTF has happened to the latest generations , absolute girl's blouses.
Aye, though I understand it dimly, the point about Tourette's is that the brain blurts out the most shocking word*. But the children who were once thrilled by the word 'fuck' have grown up and are now appalled by different words. They just don't realise that they are now the Bill Grundies.
*Of course it's far more complex and nuanced and variable than that.
Morning all More in Common sees minimal changes this week but the LDs have bounced back from theor dip last weel back above the greens ➡️ REF UK 28% (nc) 🌹 LAB 22% (nc) 🌳 CON 20% (-1) 🌍 GREEN 11% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 14% (+3) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,015 | 20/2 - 23/2| Change w 17/02
There is also an 'MRP' out from Stonehaven in the Times for Holyrood showing the SNP winning a majority outright on comstituencies - winning everything execpt LDs Shetland, Orkney, Caithness, Ed West and Fife NE and Labour randomly winning Na h'eilean an iar. They then have Reform dominating the list - South Scotland for example 4 Ref, 2 Lab, 1 Tory. Seat totals SNP 67 Ref 24 Lab 16 LD 8 Con 7 Green 7. Colour me sceptical on the lists.
If the SNP won outright on constituencies then Reform as the main opposition should dominate on the list, though the constituency figures are likely too favourable to the SNP.
The main UK MiC figures are good for Davey but less good for the Greens ahead of tomorrow's Gorton and Denton by election
I attended the pro-Ukraine rally in Trafalgar Square yesterday evening. I'd say the mood was a bit more subdued than in previous years, though the turnout held up better than I thought it would as we go into the fifth year of this cruel and pointless war, probably partly because of the extremely warm weather for the time of year. The huge square was bathed in blue and yellow, and as always the floodlit Portland stone buildings made a good backdrop.
I was standing with a good view down Whitehall to Parliament, with Nelson's column in the foreground and I couldn't help wondering what our greatest naval hero would have made of the war. Just as he repeatedly triumphed over larger forces using brilliant tactics and motivated and well-trained sailors, I'm sure he'd be particularly impressed by Ukraine's routing of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, without much of a navy of its own.
I'm very much afraid I'll be there next year, unless sanity unexpectedly prevails in Moscow.
Good on you for being there. 🇺🇦
Hopefully there won’t need to be a similar event next year, but that means everyone stepping up to help Ukraine in any way they can. Rafts of new sanctions announced yesterday are a good start, as was the €90bn loan from the EU from earlier this week. every country that wants to help should be shipping any weapons they can spare, and looking to buy Ukranian exports of anything that gives them hard cash.
True. And we should seize the £25 billion or so of Russian assets frozen in the UK to provide them with much more hard cash. If necessary, we should use enabling primary legislation in Parliament. Not only do the Ukrainians need the money, it would also provide a shining example for the EU and their €300 billion.
Even for him, Starmer is being disgracefully legalistic about our frozen Russian money.
Given hundreds of Ukrainians are dying or badly injured every day protecting Europe, it really is the least we can do.
In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.
It is highly disturbing, and we are nowhere in addressing aggressive Chinese spying, and the fact that all Chinese companies are agents of the Chinese Communist Party.
We have this extremely foolish policy of Russia as public enemy number 1, but craven submission to China, which is the power behind Russia. Russia can't even produce EVs, let alone use them to gather geographical data. It is tokenism and cowardice.
We should get rid of the ban on ICE vehicles to reduce prices and protect consumers, before taking whatever action is necessary against Chinese EV producers.
Russia is the #1 military threat, but China is definitely the #1 economic threat.
Electric cars can be very good, and they definitely have a place, but governments trying to force them to a very tight timescale is what’s causing the problems. All modern cars, whether EV or ICE, are ‘connected’ in some way. Chinese cars definitely shouldn’t be allowed to connect to Chinese servers, that’s for sure.
My new washer dryer is Chinese and can be WiFi enabled. It's probably sending data back to China too.
There's a guy in Beijing who knows how often you change your smalls.
We are back to the Chinese Laundries of old.
Got to say it’s easy to see where data is being sent to from home ( and Samsung are beyond annoying sending data back from a tv every 15 seconds) but far harder in a car unless and until Apple / Google release an app that tracks every http request made through your phone
Yes, that is what AI is for. Plagarised AI slop is just froth. What AI excels at is processing vast quantities of data to look for patterns. Historically Big Brother could only view a fraction of Telescreens, but shortly will be able to watch them all, all the time.
I must make certain I don't do my washing on the same day each week.
The benefits of "smart" appliances are dwarfed by the cybersecurity risks. I am quite happy to turn on and off my own washing!.
Me too. The equivalent non-wifi enabled washer dryers were more expensive or I'd have had one of those.
You can switch the wifi bit off, if you’re worried about data sharing.
IMHO data sharing from a car is orders of magnitude more insidious, because it’s taking photos of everywhere you go, including the location data, and could be used for actual military spying.
The way to avoid the security issue and also make the cars better would be to require that the car be able to communicate with the server of your choice, and have an open API so anybody could write an app for it. Nobody would run the official BYD app because it's the absolute shittiest thing about their cars, with the exception of things mandated by European safety regulations and the button for turning the cruise control off.
In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.
Presumably they got the idea from Tesla, which sends a lot if such data back to servers in the US.
Both nations play fast and loose with other people's data. Though for the time being, only one is a dictatorship.
When I was working with a communal volunteer workshop, we found the laser cutter was trying to send any design uploaded to a Chinese located IP address.
In the end we modified the code (hacked the binary) to send a stack of different designs - just changed the location the software was swiping files from.
The swapped in files were DXFs generated from individual frames from a film - someone wrote a script to turn every frame into a separate design.
"So the ‘Perp Walk’ has come to Britain – that’s not good In New York the police use publicity as a punishment. Such practices must not take hold here Theodore Dalrymple" (£)
Is Theodore Dalrymple a column name rather than a person? I recall reading articles in a newspaper probably the Telegraph by someone of that name when I was in my teens, and that author was in his 60s then. Now I'm in my 70s!
Good morning, everyone.
It is a pen name. He is a psychiatrist in Birmingham.
I don't always agree with his politics but he doesn't fit any pigeonhole. His writings on the underclass long precede most others.
One of the best medical writers in terms of style, alongside Raymond Tallis.
I think this kind of thing has been going on for a while - how long ago is it that Cliff Richards house being searched was all over the BBC and press?
I cannot believe the amount of absolute bollox being spouted about the guy with Tourette's saying a bad word, some big jessies about bubbling about fact he used a bad word and they never got comforted , WTF has happened to the latest generations , absolute girl's blouses.
Aye, though I understand it dimly, the point about Tourette's is that the brain blurts out the most shocking word*. But the children who were once thrilled by the word 'fuck' have grown up and are now appalled by different words. They just don't realise that they are now the Bill Grundies.
*Of course it's far more complex and nuanced and variable than that.
I think it varies from person to person. A family friend hads tourettes and he doesn't really swear but makes noises and comes up with outrageous lies if asked a question.
I cannot believe the amount of absolute bollox being spouted about the guy with Tourette's saying a bad word, some big jessies about bubbling about fact he used a bad word and they never got comforted , WTF has happened to the latest generations , absolute girl's blouses.
Aye, though I understand it dimly, the point about Tourette's is that the brain blurts out the most shocking word*. But the children who were once thrilled by the word 'fuck' have grown up and are now appalled by different words. They just don't realise that they are now the Bill Grundies.
*Of course it's far more complex and nuanced and variable than that.
I think it varies from person to person. A family friend hads tourettes and he doesn't really swear but makes noises and comes up with outrageous lies if asked a question.
Are they aware they're telling lies? I'm guessing yes, but never heard of that before.
One council by election alongside the big one this week in Shirley, Southampton an LD defence. My girlfriend livrd in Shirley during my final year at Uni. Not sure the politics of the early 90s still holds! A curious one, i fancy LD hold but you could make a case for Ref and with both Lab and Con on 24% in 2024 here maybe one of them goes hard? There are 2 other Lab councillors here. Theres enough studentry to give the Greens something to work on too. Havent been back to Shirley in 30 years though so it might as well be in Timbuktu, lol
"So the ‘Perp Walk’ has come to Britain – that’s not good In New York the police use publicity as a punishment. Such practices must not take hold here Theodore Dalrymple" (£)
Is Theodore Dalrymple a column name rather than a person? I recall reading articles in a newspaper probably the Telegraph by someone of that name when I was in my teens, and that author was in his 60s then. Now I'm in my 70s!
Good morning, everyone.
It is a pen name. He is a psychiatrist in Birmingham.
I don't always agree with his politics but he doesn't fit any pigeonhole. His writings on the underclass long precede most others.
One of the best medical writers in terms of style, alongside Raymond Tallis.
I think this kind of thing has been going on for a while - how long ago is it that Cliff Richards house being searched was all over the BBC and press?
The police used to sell (either money or influence) major arrests to reporters.
The Cliff Richard thing is an example of why such behaviour is a bad idea.
I cannot believe the amount of absolute bollox being spouted about the guy with Tourette's saying a bad word, some big jessies about bubbling about fact he used a bad word and they never got comforted , WTF has happened to the latest generations , absolute girl's blouses.
Aye, though I understand it dimly, the point about Tourette's is that the brain blurts out the most shocking word*. But the children who were once thrilled by the word 'fuck' have grown up and are now appalled by different words. They just don't realise that they are now the Bill Grundies.
*Of course it's far more complex and nuanced and variable than that.
I think it varies from person to person. A family friend hads tourettes and he doesn't really swear but makes noises and comes up with outrageous lies if asked a question.
Are they aware they're telling lies? I'm guessing yes, but never heard of that before.
I didn't know them well enough to ask but I read it as a version
Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.
He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.
One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.
Morning all More in Common sees minimal changes this week but the LDs have bounced back from theor dip last weel back above the greens ➡️ REF UK 28% (nc) 🌹 LAB 22% (nc) 🌳 CON 20% (-1) 🌍 GREEN 11% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 14% (+3) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,015 | 20/2 - 23/2| Change w 17/02
There is also an 'MRP' out from Stonehaven in the Times for Holyrood showing the SNP winning a majority outright on comstituencies - winning everything execpt LDs Shetland, Orkney, Caithness, Ed West and Fife NE and Labour randomly winning Na h'eilean an iar. They then have Reform dominating the list - South Scotland for example 4 Ref, 2 Lab, 1 Tory. Seat totals SNP 67 Ref 24 Lab 16 LD 8 Con 7 Green 7. Colour me sceptical on the lists.
If the SNP won outright on constituencies then Reform as the main opposition should dominate on the list, though the constituency figures are likely too favourable to the SNP.
The main UK MiC figures are good for Davey but less good for the Greens ahead of tomorrow's Gorton and Denton by election
I find their list spread unconvincing. Its of course possible the Tories are doing badly enough in South Scotland to only get one MSP and come behind Labour in fourth in the list there but if thats true there is no way they are doing well enough to get one MSP everywhere else too (except Glasgow).
Morning all More in Common sees minimal changes this week but the LDs have bounced back from theor dip last weel back above the greens ➡️ REF UK 28% (nc) 🌹 LAB 22% (nc) 🌳 CON 20% (-1) 🌍 GREEN 11% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 14% (+3) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,015 | 20/2 - 23/2| Change w 17/02
There is also an 'MRP' out from Stonehaven in the Times for Holyrood showing the SNP winning a majority outright on comstituencies - winning everything execpt LDs Shetland, Orkney, Caithness, Ed West and Fife NE and Labour randomly winning Na h'eilean an iar. They then have Reform dominating the list - South Scotland for example 4 Ref, 2 Lab, 1 Tory. Seat totals SNP 67 Ref 24 Lab 16 LD 8 Con 7 Green 7. Colour me sceptical on the lists.
If the SNP won outright on constituencies then Reform as the main opposition should dominate on the list, though the constituency figures are likely too favourable to the SNP.
The main UK MiC figures are good for Davey but less good for the Greens ahead of tomorrow's Gorton and Denton by election
I find their list spread unconvincing. Its of course possible the Tories are doing badly enough in South Scotland to only get one MSP and come behind Labour in fourth in the list there but if thats true there is no way they are doing well enough to get one MSP everywhere else too (except Glasgow).
It suggests the Tory voteshare has collapsed in Scotland.
It also has Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire, and Galloway and West Dumfries as neck and neck between SNP and Reform so if a few more Tory voters there tactically voted Reform to beat the SNP its is possible Reform could win some constituency seats there as well. Those seats are forecast to be SNP gains from Tory at present.
'Reform UK would be within five points of the SNP in three constituencies - Banffshire and Buchan Coast (currently held by the SNP), Dumfriesshire, and Galloway and West Dumfries.' So those are also top Reform Holyrood constituency targets where Tory tactical votes could help them beat the SNP
I cannot believe the amount of absolute bollox being spouted about the guy with Tourette's saying a bad word, some big jessies about bubbling about fact he used a bad word and they never got comforted , WTF has happened to the latest generations , absolute girl's blouses.
Aye, though I understand it dimly, the point about Tourette's is that the brain blurts out the most shocking word*. But the children who were once thrilled by the word 'fuck' have grown up and are now appalled by different words. They just don't realise that they are now the Bill Grundies.
*Of course it's far more complex and nuanced and variable than that.
I think it varies from person to person. A family friend hads tourettes and he doesn't really swear but makes noises and comes up with outrageous lies if asked a question.
Are they aware they're telling lies? I'm guessing yes, but never heard of that before.
I didn't know them well enough to ask but I read it as a version
Sorry don't know why that got cut off. I read it as a version of a tic where sometimes he'd say the most unbelievable or inappropriate answer.
I cannot believe the amount of absolute bollox being spouted about the guy with Tourette's saying a bad word, some big jessies about bubbling about fact he used a bad word and they never got comforted , WTF has happened to the latest generations , absolute girl's blouses.
Aye, though I understand it dimly, the point about Tourette's is that the brain blurts out the most shocking word*. But the children who were once thrilled by the word 'fuck' have grown up and are now appalled by different words. They just don't realise that they are now the Bill Grundies.
*Of course it's far more complex and nuanced and variable than that.
As I understand it, the actor and director on stage at the time were from the film "Sinners." I have been told the film uses the n word multiple times.
If they're correct, then N Yorks has an agreement with the government to begin collections by 1 February 2043, which seems a touch unambitious. Or maybe someone didn't check their data properly (even 2034 seems unlikely, so not sure what the correct date should be!)
Of course one might ask just how many targets in Rusia are directly connected to US economic interests.
WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 @WarMonitor3 The Trump administration has formally warned Ukraine not to strike targets within Russia that could hit US economic interests-FT 10:15 pm · 24 Feb 2026
In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.
It is highly disturbing, and we are nowhere in addressing aggressive Chinese spying, and the fact that all Chinese companies are agents of the Chinese Communist Party.
We have this extremely foolish policy of Russia as public enemy number 1, but craven submission to China, which is the power behind Russia. Russia can't even produce EVs, let alone use them to gather geographical data. It is tokenism and cowardice.
We should get rid of the ban on ICE vehicles to reduce prices and protect consumers, before taking whatever action is necessary against Chinese EV producers.
Russia is the #1 military threat, but China is definitely the #1 economic threat.
Electric cars can be very good, and they definitely have a place, but governments trying to force them to a very tight timescale is what’s causing the problems. All modern cars, whether EV or ICE, are ‘connected’ in some way. Chinese cars definitely shouldn’t be allowed to connect to Chinese servers, that’s for sure.
No they are not - how on earth could Russia invade us?
Who do you think is our #1 military threat then, if not Russia?
Obviously. They can project power in a way Russia cannot.
Our local chapter of the Brotherhood of Saints Cyril and Methodius are off their fucking heads. The armed forces of the Russian Federation are a gang of half-starved junkies in ragged portyanki getting their shit pushed in by Ukraine and, at the same time, a gigantic and relentless mechanised killing mission that can bestride continents. Fucking ludicrous.
We're not bothered about continents - just the one which they do bestride. And they can at the same time be a bunch of starving junkies, while conducting 1000 drone raids every week.
It's just as ludicrous to be arguing that Ukraine should sue for peace and surrender defensible territory, while saying the invading forces are a busted flush.
Wars are stupid and contradictory, certainly. Encouraging those who start them by rewarding them for doing so is far more stupid.
Morning all More in Common sees minimal changes this week but the LDs have bounced back from theor dip last weel back above the greens ➡️ REF UK 28% (nc) 🌹 LAB 22% (nc) 🌳 CON 20% (-1) 🌍 GREEN 11% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 14% (+3) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,015 | 20/2 - 23/2| Change w 17/02
There is also an 'MRP' out from Stonehaven in the Times for Holyrood showing the SNP winning a majority outright on comstituencies - winning everything execpt LDs Shetland, Orkney, Caithness, Ed West and Fife NE and Labour randomly winning Na h'eilean an iar. They then have Reform dominating the list - South Scotland for example 4 Ref, 2 Lab, 1 Tory. Seat totals SNP 67 Ref 24 Lab 16 LD 8 Con 7 Green 7. Colour me sceptical on the lists.
If the SNP won outright on constituencies then Reform as the main opposition should dominate on the list, though the constituency figures are likely too favourable to the SNP.
The main UK MiC figures are good for Davey but less good for the Greens ahead of tomorrow's Gorton and Denton by election
I find their list spread unconvincing. Its of course possible the Tories are doing badly enough in South Scotland to only get one MSP and come behind Labour in fourth in the list there but if thats true there is no way they are doing well enough to get one MSP everywhere else too (except Glasgow).
It suggests the Tory voteshare has collapsed in Scotland.
It also has Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire, and Galloway and West Dumfries as neck and neck between SNP and Reform so if a few more Tory voters there tactically voted Reform to beat the SNP its is possible Reform could win some constituency seats there as well. Those seats are forecast to be SNP gains from Tory at present.
'Reform UK would be within five points of the SNP in three constituencies - Banffshire and Buchan Coast (currently held by the SNP), Dumfriesshire, and Galloway and West Dumfries.' So those are also top Reform Holyrood constituency targets where Tory tactical votes could help them beat the SNP
We have reached the evidence of a coverup stage of Epsteingate.
Democrats in the House Oversight Committee just released this statement:
“For the last few weeks, Oversight Democrats have been investigating the FBI’s handling of allegations from 2019 of sexual assault on a minor made against President Donald Trump by a survivor.
Oversight Democrats can confirm that the DOJ appears to have illegally withheld FBI interviews with a survivor.
Morning all More in Common sees minimal changes this week but the LDs have bounced back from theor dip last weel back above the greens ➡️ REF UK 28% (nc) 🌹 LAB 22% (nc) 🌳 CON 20% (-1) 🌍 GREEN 11% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 14% (+3) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,015 | 20/2 - 23/2| Change w 17/02
There is also an 'MRP' out from Stonehaven in the Times for Holyrood showing the SNP winning a majority outright on comstituencies - winning everything execpt LDs Shetland, Orkney, Caithness, Ed West and Fife NE and Labour randomly winning Na h'eilean an iar. They then have Reform dominating the list - South Scotland for example 4 Ref, 2 Lab, 1 Tory. Seat totals SNP 67 Ref 24 Lab 16 LD 8 Con 7 Green 7. Colour me sceptical on the lists.
If the SNP won outright on constituencies then Reform as the main opposition should dominate on the list, though the constituency figures are likely too favourable to the SNP.
The main UK MiC figures are good for Davey but less good for the Greens ahead of tomorrow's Gorton and Denton by election
I find their list spread unconvincing. Its of course possible the Tories are doing badly enough in South Scotland to only get one MSP and come behind Labour in fourth in the list there but if thats true there is no way they are doing well enough to get one MSP everywhere else too (except Glasgow).
It suggests the Tory voteshare has collapsed in Scotland.
It also has Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire, and Galloway and West Dumfries as neck and neck between SNP and Reform so if a few more Tory voters there tactically voted Reform to beat the SNP its is possible Reform could win some constituency seats there as well. Those seats are forecast to be SNP gains from Tory at present.
'Reform UK would be within five points of the SNP in three constituencies - Banffshire and Buchan Coast (currently held by the SNP), Dumfriesshire, and Galloway and West Dumfries.' So those are also top Reform Holyrood constituency targets where Tory tactical votes could help them beat the SNP
Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.
He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.
One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.
There's something nasty in the woodshed...
I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.
Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.
On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.
For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
One council by election alongside the big one this week in Shirley, Southampton an LD defence. My girlfriend livrd in Shirley during my final year at Uni. Not sure the politics of the early 90s still holds! A curious one, i fancy LD hold but you could make a case for Ref and with both Lab and Con on 24% in 2024 here maybe one of them goes hard? There are 2 other Lab councillors here. Theres enough studentry to give the Greens something to work on too. Havent been back to Shirley in 30 years though so it might as well be in Timbuktu, lol
I had a girlfriend in Shirley in the early 2010s, so slightly more up to date (and clearly the place to find girlfriends ) It was a curious mix at the time, some students in HMOs but also some nice semis. Some of the uni staff lived there.
In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.
It is highly disturbing, and we are nowhere in addressing aggressive Chinese spying, and the fact that all Chinese companies are agents of the Chinese Communist Party.
We have this extremely foolish policy of Russia as public enemy number 1, but craven submission to China, which is the power behind Russia. Russia can't even produce EVs, let alone use them to gather geographical data. It is tokenism and cowardice.
We should get rid of the ban on ICE vehicles to reduce prices and protect consumers, before taking whatever action is necessary against Chinese EV producers.
What exactly do you think you have that would be of interest to the Chinese state? I'm seriously interested. I think you're suffering from Walter Mitty syndrome as are many Tories on this site.
Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice. Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that..... If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM
In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.
It is highly disturbing, and we are nowhere in addressing aggressive Chinese spying, and the fact that all Chinese companies are agents of the Chinese Communist Party.
We have this extremely foolish policy of Russia as public enemy number 1, but craven submission to China, which is the power behind Russia. Russia can't even produce EVs, let alone use them to gather geographical data. It is tokenism and cowardice.
We should get rid of the ban on ICE vehicles to reduce prices and protect consumers, before taking whatever action is necessary against Chinese EV producers.
Russia is the #1 military threat, but China is definitely the #1 economic threat.
Electric cars can be very good, and they definitely have a place, but governments trying to force them to a very tight timescale is what’s causing the problems. All modern cars, whether EV or ICE, are ‘connected’ in some way. Chinese cars definitely shouldn’t be allowed to connect to Chinese servers, that’s for sure.
No they are not - how on earth could Russia invade us?
I’d say more of a threat via cybersecurity.
They cannot ,invade Ukraine succesfully, they’re hardly likely to invade us.
A Ukrainian unit spanked a British one in an exercise recently. The Russians would probably find Britain an easier target than Ukraine.
Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.
He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.
One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.
There's something nasty in the woodshed...
I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.
Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.
On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.
For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
Strong post. I also watched it and had similar thoughts. He showed greater emotional self control than at his post-SCOTUS decision press conference, had pretty much zero vague or confused moments, and fully and effectively exploited the backdrop and the moment. The man is still very dangerous.
He lost his Republican audience on tariffs but only briefly.
One council by election alongside the big one this week in Shirley, Southampton an LD defence. My girlfriend livrd in Shirley during my final year at Uni. Not sure the politics of the early 90s still holds! A curious one, i fancy LD hold but you could make a case for Ref and with both Lab and Con on 24% in 2024 here maybe one of them goes hard? There are 2 other Lab councillors here. Theres enough studentry to give the Greens something to work on too. Havent been back to Shirley in 30 years though so it might as well be in Timbuktu, lol
I had a girlfriend in Shirley in the early 2010s, so slightly more up to date (and clearly the place to find girlfriends ) It was a curious mix at the time, some students in HMOs but also some nice semis. Some of the uni staff lived there.
Back then it was moving Lab from Con.
I used to grumble incessantly about having to cycle there pissed to see her lol Its a really interesting one, im quite interested in how it goes
Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.
He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.
One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.
There's something nasty in the woodshed...
I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.
Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.
On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.
For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
It’s because I’m banned from talking about most things
I agree, btw, that Trump was on form last night. For a man of his advanced years and alleged senility, he knows how to deliver both a gag and a put down, and also how to ad lib
He is not yet anywhere near Biden levels of dribbling
But Jesus he does drone on. Like an American Castro
Morning all More in Common sees minimal changes this week but the LDs have bounced back from theor dip last weel back above the greens ➡️ REF UK 28% (nc) 🌹 LAB 22% (nc) 🌳 CON 20% (-1) 🌍 GREEN 11% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 14% (+3) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,015 | 20/2 - 23/2| Change w 17/02
There is also an 'MRP' out from Stonehaven in the Times for Holyrood showing the SNP winning a majority outright on comstituencies - winning everything execpt LDs Shetland, Orkney, Caithness, Ed West and Fife NE and Labour randomly winning Na h'eilean an iar. They then have Reform dominating the list - South Scotland for example 4 Ref, 2 Lab, 1 Tory. Seat totals SNP 67 Ref 24 Lab 16 LD 8 Con 7 Green 7. Colour me sceptical on the lists.
I thought you were going to write colour me sceptical on the constituencies.
Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.
He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.
One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.
There's something nasty in the woodshed...
I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.
Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.
On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.
For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
Morning all More in Common sees minimal changes this week but the LDs have bounced back from theor dip last weel back above the greens ➡️ REF UK 28% (nc) 🌹 LAB 22% (nc) 🌳 CON 20% (-1) 🌍 GREEN 11% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 14% (+3) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,015 | 20/2 - 23/2| Change w 17/02
There is also an 'MRP' out from Stonehaven in the Times for Holyrood showing the SNP winning a majority outright on comstituencies - winning everything execpt LDs Shetland, Orkney, Caithness, Ed West and Fife NE and Labour randomly winning Na h'eilean an iar. They then have Reform dominating the list - South Scotland for example 4 Ref, 2 Lab, 1 Tory. Seat totals SNP 67 Ref 24 Lab 16 LD 8 Con 7 Green 7. Colour me sceptical on the lists.
I thought you were going to write colour me sceptical on the constituencies.
Well, yes. That too. However it turns out they are modelling in fairly significant tactical voting from SLab to SNP (up to 25%)
In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.
It is highly disturbing, and we are nowhere in addressing aggressive Chinese spying, and the fact that all Chinese companies are agents of the Chinese Communist Party.
We have this extremely foolish policy of Russia as public enemy number 1, but craven submission to China, which is the power behind Russia. Russia can't even produce EVs, let alone use them to gather geographical data. It is tokenism and cowardice.
We should get rid of the ban on ICE vehicles to reduce prices and protect consumers, before taking whatever action is necessary against Chinese EV producers.
What exactly do you think you have that would be of interest to the Chinese state? I'm seriously interested. I think you're suffering from Walter Mitty syndrome as are many Tories on this site.
I don't agree with you on much but I am 100% with you on this. The nebulous fear that your data is somehow interest to a hostile body makes me laugh.
Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.
He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.
One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.
There's something nasty in the woodshed...
I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.
Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.
On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.
For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
Local elections aren't weird imo.
Sorry, weird wasn’t the best choice of word, I should have gone for something like “obscure” or “specialised”.
Of course one might ask just how many targets in Rusia are directly connected to US economic interests.
WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 @WarMonitor3 The Trump administration has formally warned Ukraine not to strike targets within Russia that could hit US economic interests-FT 10:15 pm · 24 Feb 2026
Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.
He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.
One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.
There's something nasty in the woodshed...
I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.
Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.
On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.
For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
In his first term I wanted it to end prematurely. There is a big difference between Pence and Vance though, even if they share the last 60% of their surnames, Vance is even more pro oligarch and pro Russia and anti liberal democracy than Trump. He would be more focused, capable and probably ruthless in how he went about it. So I actually hope that Trump serves out his term and my wish this time is merely that it ends on time.......
On the one hand, firing off random, racist,witless utterances cannot be condoned and it must have caused pain. On the other hand we need to understand the medical context. The president has dementia.
In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.
It is highly disturbing, and we are nowhere in addressing aggressive Chinese spying, and the fact that all Chinese companies are agents of the Chinese Communist Party.
We have this extremely foolish policy of Russia as public enemy number 1, but craven submission to China, which is the power behind Russia. Russia can't even produce EVs, let alone use them to gather geographical data. It is tokenism and cowardice.
We should get rid of the ban on ICE vehicles to reduce prices and protect consumers, before taking whatever action is necessary against Chinese EV producers.
What exactly do you think you have that would be of interest to the Chinese state? I'm seriously interested. I think you're suffering from Walter Mitty syndrome as are many Tories on this site.
I don't agree with you on much but I am 100% with you on this. The nebulous fear that your data is somehow interest to a hostile body makes me laugh.
It’s not the data on the individual, it’s the wisdom and unwisdom of crowds - that’s what the Chinese wish to extract. And it’s highly valuable
But to get that you need the data of millions of individuals
Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.
He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.
One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.
There's something nasty in the woodshed...
I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.
Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.
On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.
For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
It’s because I’m banned from talking about most things
I agree, btw, that Trump was on form last night. For a man of his advanced years and alleged senility, he knows how to deliver both a gag and a put down, and also how to ad lib
He is not yet anywhere near Biden levels of dribbling
But Jesus he does drone on. Like an American Castro
Trumpismo o Muerte!
As I understand it you are banned from discussing one thing. We are all banned from discussing another.
I do think PB gets things wrong. Last week was full of posters claiming that Starmer was toast, yet I couldn't see how he was going to be removed or by whom. I think we have all got used to the Tory psycho-drama a bit too much. Labour doesn't remove its leaders in the same way, and any coup was always going to be after May at the earliest.
PB is the home for spotting the value bet from a long way out. If you pay attention, every now and then there is good money to be made from decent tips. It is also stacked with experts on many disparate things, and this usually provides a decent information source to counter bollocks in the media.
But its also riddled with men, centrist men at that. We are lucky to have a few voices from the outer reaches of the political horseshoe.
For some reason I decided to look at the Gorton and Denton 2024 result and try to compare it with a similar safe incumbent seat from the last Parliament
Firstly Gorton and Denton
Effectively a new seat in 2024 and even in a Labour wipe out that meant on estimate vote share from 2024 Andrew Gwynne vote share was down 14.3%
That staggered me to be honest. A falling share in a landslide election
Next the 2024 share
Lab 50.8% Reform 14.1 Green 13.2 Workers 10.3 Con 7.9 LD 3.9
Maj 13413
So the Reform and Green base start is actually a lot higher than many will be aware of or understand.
The MP kicked out for erroneous behaviours, so I'll come on to a comparable seat later.
If we assume the workers 10% goes to Green I think we may be wrong, I'd see a split 50 50 of the international lefties Palestine branch and the closet low intellect racist wing to Reform.
So straight away Reform should be polling close to 20% and Green Close to 18 %
It would be a poor piir result for Tories or LD not to match their 2024 share here.
The context though is a hugely unpopular PM the worst ever the right wing media and Tories and Reform tell us.
So even to lose 10% of the Labour vote to each of Reform and Green would be the very very least of Labour fear and expectation.
So you can extrapolate that
30% benchmark is and should be the minimum of Reform and Green expectation, a straight fight surely.
That Labour are being considered to be anywhere remotely close to 30% is staggering in the context of Media expectation and all opinion polling.
3 weeks ago it looked like
Reform 30 to 35 Green 25 to 30 Labour 15 to 20
I suggest therefore that the benchmark of the success or failure of the respective campaigns should be benchmarked up ie down from a base point
Reform 32.5 Green 27.5 Labour 17.5 Tory 7.9 LD 3.8
Compare 2023 by election very unpopular incumbent Government with an MP with not dissimilar personal allegation
Tamworth
Con defending 66.3% Lab 23.7%
Result
Lab 45.8% Tory 40.7 %
The 2024 GE was not dissimilar
Hard to compare as Reform and Green less visible on that seat.
It will be very very interesting to compare these perceptions to the final result.
It feels to me that Reform should be considering a staggering failure if they don't win
The Greens a highly positive and commendable effort
Labour, a win with a slender majority would be reported by right wing media as a terrible result. I'm reality of their unpopularity and that of the PM any vote above 20% would be perceived to be damage limitation, 25% positive and a win frankly a shock outcome
Con and LD can only be measured against 2024 benchmark. Any gain a positive and decline a worry.
I cannot believe the amount of absolute bollox being spouted about the guy with Tourette's saying a bad word, some big jessies about bubbling about fact he used a bad word and they never got comforted , WTF has happened to the latest generations , absolute girl's blouses.
Aye, though I understand it dimly, the point about Tourette's is that the brain blurts out the most shocking word*. But the children who were once thrilled by the word 'fuck' have grown up and are now appalled by different words. They just don't realise that they are now the Bill Grundies.
*Of course it's far more complex and nuanced and variable than that.
I think it varies from person to person. A family friend hads tourettes and he doesn't really swear but makes noises and comes up with outrageous lies if asked a question.
I didn't realise Boris was a family friend! My condolences.
Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.
He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.
One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.
There's something nasty in the woodshed...
I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.
Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.
On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.
For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
Even though PB is very male, very educated and very nerdy compared to the mainstream we're still a diverse bunch who like to argue with each other and I think it's rare that there's a unified collective view on anything.
Sure, for example, there are a few posters who are consistently very optimistic about Ukraine's chances and have predicted an imminent Russian collapse for a long time. I remember how Chinese truck tyres were going to cripple Russian logistics too. But that's not the collective PB.com view. You'll find other posters injecting a note of realism or contrarianism into such debates.
It irritates me when posters pretend there's a monolithic PB.com opinion that they can present themselves as a wise contrary savant providing corrections to.
In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.
It is highly disturbing, and we are nowhere in addressing aggressive Chinese spying, and the fact that all Chinese companies are agents of the Chinese Communist Party.
We have this extremely foolish policy of Russia as public enemy number 1, but craven submission to China, which is the power behind Russia. Russia can't even produce EVs, let alone use them to gather geographical data. It is tokenism and cowardice.
We should get rid of the ban on ICE vehicles to reduce prices and protect consumers, before taking whatever action is necessary against Chinese EV producers.
What exactly do you think you have that would be of interest to the Chinese state? I'm seriously interested. I think you're suffering from Walter Mitty syndrome as are many Tories on this site.
I don't agree with you on much but I am 100% with you on this. The nebulous fear that your data is somehow interest to a hostile body makes me laugh.
Your personal data will get sifted to see if it’s of interest. If it isn’t, it will be sold on to the aggregating data brokers.
This represents a threat to your *personal* security. Various crooks use the “jigsaw” technique to pull together enough information to do identity theft etc.
Doesn't smell right. Unless the collective view is vote SNP to stop Reform. But that being the case would Reform win 25 list seats?
Vote SNP to stop Reform. But not anyone else. Its also based on 2500 responses, but only 900 of those are from Jan/Feb, so its very different from all the other polling. Ill be interested in the tables
And LD hold 5 constituencies against the all conquering SNP but utterly bomb in the list?
For some reason I decided to look at the Gorton and Denton 2024 result and try to compare it with a similar safe incumbent seat from the last Parliament
Firstly Gorton and Denton
Effectively a new seat in 2024 and even in a Labour wipe out that meant on estimate vote share from 2024 Andrew Gwynne vote share was down 14.3%
That staggered me to be honest. A falling share in a landslide election
Next the 2024 share
Lab 50.8% Reform 14.1 Green 13.2 Workers 10.3 Con 7.9 LD 3.9
Maj 13413
So the Reform and Green base start is actually a lot higher than many will be aware of or understand.
The MP kicked out for erroneous behaviours, so I'll come on to a comparable seat later.
If we assume the workers 10% goes to Green I think we may be wrong, I'd see a split 50 50 of the international lefties Palestine branch and the closet low intellect racist wing to Reform.
So straight away Reform should be polling close to 20% and Green Close to 18 %
It would be a poor piir result for Tories or LD not to match their 2024 share here.
The context though is a hugely unpopular PM the worst ever the right wing media and Tories and Reform tell us.
So even to lose 10% of the Labour vote to each of Reform and Green would be the very very least of Labour fear and expectation.
So you can extrapolate that
30% benchmark is and should be the minimum of Reform and Green expectation, a straight fight surely.
That Labour are being considered to be anywhere remotely close to 30% is staggering in the context of Media expectation and all opinion polling.
3 weeks ago it looked like
Reform 30 to 35 Green 25 to 30 Labour 15 to 20
I suggest therefore that the benchmark of the success or failure of the respective campaigns should be benchmarked up ie down from a base point
Reform 32.5 Green 27.5 Labour 17.5 Tory 7.9 LD 3.8
Compare 2023 by election very unpopular incumbent Government with an MP with not dissimilar personal allegation
Tamworth
Con defending 66.3% Lab 23.7%
Result
Lab 45.8% Tory 40.7 %
The 2024 GE was not dissimilar
Hard to compare as Reform and Green less visible on that seat.
It will be very very interesting to compare these perceptions to the final result.
It feels to me that Reform should be considering a staggering failure if they don't win
The Greens a highly positive and commendable effort
Labour, a win with a slender majority would be reported by right wing media as a terrible result. I'm reality of their unpopularity and that of the PM any vote above 20% would be perceived to be damage limitation, 25% positive and a win frankly a shock outcome
Con and LD can only be measured against 2024 benchmark. Any gain a positive and decline a worry.
I think that is being overoptimistic for Labour.
The latest Nowcast projects Reform 348 MPs and an overall majority but Gorton and Denton staying Labour with Labour 29.4% and Reform on 26.8% tied for second with the Greens on 26.2%.
So Reform don't actually need to win Gorton and Denton even to get a UK majority but if Labour lose even the likes of Gorton and Denton they will be left with well under 100 MPs and if the Greens won it they would be snapping at their heels with around 50 MPs
Lewis has confirmed he will be meeting with Kemi to discuss Student Loans after the GMB farrago
She needs to be careful.
Based on his meetings with Hammond, Hunt, Reeves in the past, if they don't agree 100% with his view they will end up being the subject of a 3 minute vitriilic attack at the end of one of his shows
Reeves, Hunt, Hammond whatever their politics are respectable decent logical amiable types
This pair are built on massive ego and never ever wrong
Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice. Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that..... If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM
Desperate
After 11 round of negotiations he will simply say, you fucked it up, I tried my best.
Doesn't smell right. Unless the collective view is vote SNP to stop Reform. But that being the case would Reform win 25 list seats?
Vote SNP to stop Reform didn't reduce the number of Reform votes, which is what delivers them list seats - and even more list seats the more perks vote SNP on the lists where those votes are wasted of the SNP sweep the constituencies.
The voting system in Scotland really is a pretty awful Frankenstein mess of a voting system.
Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice. Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that..... If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM
Doesn't smell right. Unless the collective view is vote SNP to stop Reform. But that being the case would Reform win 25 list seats?
Indeed and it also has the SNP gaining most rural seats on the borders and in Aberdeenshire from the Tories and holding Banffshire and Buchan Coast yet the details of the poll have Reform neck and neck with the SNP in those constituencies and there it would be Reform who could squeeze Tory tactical votes to beat the SNP. Even if in most of the rest of Scotland the SNP would squeeze Labour votes to beat Reform
Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice. Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that..... If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM
Why?
A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory. If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
Doesn't smell right. Unless the collective view is vote SNP to stop Reform. But that being the case would Reform win 25 list seats?
Vote SNP to stop Reform didn't reduce the number of Reform votes, which is what delivers them list seats - and even more list seats the more perks vote SNP on the lists where those votes are wasted of the SNP sweep the constituencies.
The voting system in Scotland really is a pretty awful Frankenstein mess of a voting system.
Still, it doesn't deliver a 'landslide' majority on 34% of the vote.
Doesn't smell right. Unless the collective view is vote SNP to stop Reform. But that being the case would Reform win 25 list seats?
Indeed and it also has the SNP gaining most rural seats on the borders and in Aberdeenshire from the Tories and holding Banffshire and Buchan Coast yet the details of the poll have Reform neck and neck with the SNP in those constituencies and there it would be Reform who could squeeze Tory tactical votes to beat the SNP. Even if in most of the rest of Scotland the SNP would squeeze Labour votes to beat Reform
I will only believe there's a chance of an outright SNP majority when the susurration of 'the SNP still can't ask for a referndum without Westminster permission' starts.
Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice. Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that..... If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM
Why?
A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory. If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
Short version - Starmer nailed his trousers to the masthead on this one.
Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.
He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.
One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.
There's something nasty in the woodshed...
I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.
Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.
On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.
For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
The general line is some on here expect and want things to happen quickly whereas the political "process" is generally much slower - not always.
Everyone does some form of wishcasting or hopecasting - it's human nature to, as that savant Geri Horner once said "tell me what you want, what you really, really want" and there's almost a mantra the more you want something to happen, the more you see signs of its imminent happening.
If you want a site with 100% objective commentary, you won't find one. You might find some individuals who are occasionally prepared to be more even handed and praise those whom they normally criticise and criticise those whom they normally praise but that doesn't happen too often and most people's contributions are fairly typical. We know where most people are politically on most things.
If I had to characterise PB, I wouldn't describe it as "centrist" (I don't know what that term means, at least not objectively). It is broadly anti-"Left" (again, depends on what you call "left" and "right" as those terms have lost all meaning if they ever had any), conservative (though not necessarily Conservative) and male. Socially and economically we're sort of conservative though with liberal tendencies.
The other problem is those who get emotionally invested in individual politicians - I don't understand the vitriolic personal antipathy toward Starmer, Reeves, Badenoch, Polanski, Farage, Davey etc, etc. I've no strong feelings about any of them - the only one with whom I'm starting to have a personal issue is Rupert Lowe.
In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.
It is highly disturbing, and we are nowhere in addressing aggressive Chinese spying, and the fact that all Chinese companies are agents of the Chinese Communist Party.
We have this extremely foolish policy of Russia as public enemy number 1, but craven submission to China, which is the power behind Russia. Russia can't even produce EVs, let alone use them to gather geographical data. It is tokenism and cowardice.
We should get rid of the ban on ICE vehicles to reduce prices and protect consumers, before taking whatever action is necessary against Chinese EV producers.
What exactly do you think you have that would be of interest to the Chinese state? I'm seriously interested. I think you're suffering from Walter Mitty syndrome as are many Tories on this site.
I don't agree with you on much but I am 100% with you on this. The nebulous fear that your data is somehow interest to a hostile body makes me laugh.
Your personal data will get sifted to see if it’s of interest. If it isn’t, it will be sold on to the aggregating data brokers.
This represents a threat to your *personal* security. Various crooks use the “jigsaw” technique to pull together enough information to do identity theft etc.
I also don't think it is paranoia not to want a hostile state tracking you everywhere you go or with access to all your security cameras.
Cars are particularly bad as the only way to stop the information leak is to Faraday cage the transmitter, which is not exactly practical.
Chinese tat at home should be stuck on a VLAN with no access from the internet other than through your own VPN, but this is well beyond most users.
I don't really understand why the government is so lax about allowing all this stuff through, particularly as half of it doesn't actually meet any kind of electrical standard.
Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice. Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that..... If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM
Why?
A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory. If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
Short version - Starmer nailed his trousers to the masthead on this one.
Doesn't smell right. Unless the collective view is vote SNP to stop Reform. But that being the case would Reform win 25 list seats?
Indeed and it also has the SNP gaining most rural seats on the borders and in Aberdeenshire from the Tories and holding Banffshire and Buchan Coast yet the details of the poll have Reform neck and neck with the SNP in those constituencies and there it would be Reform who could squeeze Tory tactical votes to beat the SNP. Even if in most of the rest of Scotland the SNP would squeeze Labour votes to beat Reform
I guarantee swathes of tactical voting up here, and people will vote differently on the two ballots.
But - and its a big but - there is a smell coming off this scenario which doesn't feel right.
The SNP have a sizeable core support and little outside that. Reform have a much smaller core support and little outside that. Labour and Tory votes appear to be dissipating, with Green and LibDem taking off them.
There is a clear and unambiguous dislike of the SNP government outside its core vote. Its far more palpable than last time, so the idea of their constituency vote going up feels far fetched - unless it was an anti fuker tactical vote. But as the fukers are more prominent on the lists the anti vote would go to Labour / LibDem / Green. And according to this poll it isn't.
Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice. Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that..... If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM
Chagos deal passes through the commons at 19:21 on May 19th 2026.
In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.
It is highly disturbing, and we are nowhere in addressing aggressive Chinese spying, and the fact that all Chinese companies are agents of the Chinese Communist Party.
We have this extremely foolish policy of Russia as public enemy number 1, but craven submission to China, which is the power behind Russia. Russia can't even produce EVs, let alone use them to gather geographical data. It is tokenism and cowardice.
We should get rid of the ban on ICE vehicles to reduce prices and protect consumers, before taking whatever action is necessary against Chinese EV producers.
What exactly do you think you have that would be of interest to the Chinese state? I'm seriously interested. I think you're suffering from Walter Mitty syndrome as are many Tories on this site.
I don't agree with you on much but I am 100% with you on this. The nebulous fear that your data is somehow interest to a hostile body makes me laugh.
Your personal data will get sifted to see if it’s of interest. If it isn’t, it will be sold on to the aggregating data brokers.
This represents a threat to your *personal* security. Various crooks use the “jigsaw” technique to pull together enough information to do identity theft etc.
I also don't think it is paranoia not to want a hostile state tracking you everywhere you go or with access to all your security cameras.
Cars are particularly bad as the only way to stop the information leak is to Faraday cage the transmitter, which is not exactly practical.
Chinese tat at home should be stuck on a VLAN with no access from the internet other than through your own VPN, but this is well beyond most users.
I don't really understand why the government is so lax about allowing all this stuff through, particularly as half of it doesn't actually meet any kind of electrical standard.
Yup.
Like the comedies with the NHS data. Any sane IP manager would leverage that into a huge investment by drug companies etc while protecting the data. “Want to use the data? Well it physically has to stay in the U.K. So sadly you’ll need to set an onshore company and setup a large building full of U.K. employees to work with it. Sorry about that - rules.”
The idiots seem to spend all their time trying to give it to Palantir etc.
In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.
It is highly disturbing, and we are nowhere in addressing aggressive Chinese spying, and the fact that all Chinese companies are agents of the Chinese Communist Party.
We have this extremely foolish policy of Russia as public enemy number 1, but craven submission to China, which is the power behind Russia. Russia can't even produce EVs, let alone use them to gather geographical data. It is tokenism and cowardice.
We should get rid of the ban on ICE vehicles to reduce prices and protect consumers, before taking whatever action is necessary against Chinese EV producers.
What exactly do you think you have that would be of interest to the Chinese state? I'm seriously interested. I think you're suffering from Walter Mitty syndrome as are many Tories on this site.
I don't agree with you on much but I am 100% with you on this. The nebulous fear that your data is somehow interest to a hostile body makes me laugh.
Your personal data will get sifted to see if it’s of interest. If it isn’t, it will be sold on to the aggregating data brokers.
This represents a threat to your *personal* security. Various crooks use the “jigsaw” technique to pull together enough information to do identity theft etc.
I also don't think it is paranoia not to want a hostile state tracking you everywhere you go or with access to all your security cameras.
Cars are particularly bad as the only way to stop the information leak is to Faraday cage the transmitter, which is not exactly practical.
Chinese tat at home should be stuck on a VLAN with no access from the internet other than through your own VPN, but this is well beyond most users.
I don't really understand why the government is so lax about allowing all this stuff through, particularly as half of it doesn't actually meet any kind of electrical standard.
"I also don't think it is paranoia not to want a hostile state tracking you everywhere you go".
I assume you are the hero of this movie. How many people do the Chinese dedicated to following your every move? Five? Ten?
Doesn't smell right. Unless the collective view is vote SNP to stop Reform. But that being the case would Reform win 25 list seats?
Indeed and it also has the SNP gaining most rural seats on the borders and in Aberdeenshire from the Tories and holding Banffshire and Buchan Coast yet the details of the poll have Reform neck and neck with the SNP in those constituencies and there it would be Reform who could squeeze Tory tactical votes to beat the SNP. Even if in most of the rest of Scotland the SNP would squeeze Labour votes to beat Reform
I will only believe there's a chance of an outright SNP majority when the susurration of 'the SNP still can't ask for a referndum without Westminster permission' starts.
Starmer has already ruled out allowing indyref2 anyway while he is PM and Reform have also ruled out allowing indyref2 for at least 10 years whatever happens in May
Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice. Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that..... If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM
Why?
A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory. If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
You could send Michael Crick on a six month fact finding mission to every bingo hall laundrette bar pub restaurant football stadium nightclub prison factory swimming pool park museum art gallery and brothel in the country and you wouldn't find a single person male female or trans who would mention the Chagos Islands. It is something only spoken about amongst a weird subset of PBers
Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.
He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.
One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.
There's something nasty in the woodshed...
I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.
Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.
On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.
For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
The general line is some on here expect and want things to happen quickly whereas the political "process" is generally much slower - not always.
Everyone does some form of wishcasting or hopecasting - it's human nature to, as that savant Geri Horner once said "tell me what you want, what you really, really want" and there's almost a mantra the more you want something to happen, the more you see signs of its imminent happening.
If you want a site with 100% objective commentary, you won't find one. You might find some individuals who are occasionally prepared to be more even handed and praise those whom they normally criticise and criticise those whom they normally praise but that doesn't happen too often and most people's contributions are fairly typical. We know where most people are politically on most things.
If I had to characterise PB, I wouldn't describe it as "centrist" (I don't know what that term means, at least not objectively). It is broadly anti-"Left" (again, depends on what you call "left" and "right" as those terms have lost all meaning if they ever had any), conservative (though not necessarily Conservative) and male. Socially and economically we're sort of conservative though with liberal tendencies.
The other problem is those who get emotionally invested in individual politicians - I don't understand the vitriolic personal antipathy toward Starmer, Reeves, Badenoch, Polanski, Farage, Davey etc, etc. I've no strong feelings about any of them - the only one with whom I'm starting to have a personal issue is Rupert Lowe.
Farage is nasty.
Polanski is a salesman selling plausible bullshit. If Foxtons ever need a spare…
Starmer, Reeves & Davey are bland to the point of existence failure.
They are like Kahn - I think he is the walk on actor for the part of London Mayor in movie. Has one line and appears in the bottom third of the cast list, which you only see if you wait until the cleaners come in to the theatre.
Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice. Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that..... If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM
Why?
A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory. If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
David Cameron in Dec 2011 blocked an EU-wide deal to tackle the Eurozone crisis, that he supported, but he knew he couldn't get through Parliament. He did not resign. Blair was facing similar problems with the EU in 2004/5. He did not resign. Didn't Lloyd George struggle with some League of Nations stuff in Parliament in the 1920s? He did not resign.
For some reason I decided to look at the Gorton and Denton 2024 result and try to compare it with a similar safe incumbent seat from the last Parliament
Firstly Gorton and Denton
Effectively a new seat in 2024 and even in a Labour wipe out that meant on estimate vote share from 2024 Andrew Gwynne vote share was down 14.3%
That staggered me to be honest. A falling share in a landslide election
Next the 2024 share
Lab 50.8% Reform 14.1 Green 13.2 Workers 10.3 Con 7.9 LD 3.9
Maj 13413
So the Reform and Green base start is actually a lot higher than many will be aware of or understand.
The MP kicked out for erroneous behaviours, so I'll come on to a comparable seat later.
If we assume the workers 10% goes to Green I think we may be wrong, I'd see a split 50 50 of the international lefties Palestine branch and the closet low intellect racist wing to Reform.
So straight away Reform should be polling close to 20% and Green Close to 18 %
It would be a poor piir result for Tories or LD not to match their 2024 share here.
The context though is a hugely unpopular PM the worst ever the right wing media and Tories and Reform tell us.
So even to lose 10% of the Labour vote to each of Reform and Green would be the very very least of Labour fear and expectation.
So you can extrapolate that
30% benchmark is and should be the minimum of Reform and Green expectation, a straight fight surely.
That Labour are being considered to be anywhere remotely close to 30% is staggering in the context of Media expectation and all opinion polling.
3 weeks ago it looked like
Reform 30 to 35 Green 25 to 30 Labour 15 to 20
I suggest therefore that the benchmark of the success or failure of the respective campaigns should be benchmarked up ie down from a base point
Reform 32.5 Green 27.5 Labour 17.5 Tory 7.9 LD 3.8
Compare 2023 by election very unpopular incumbent Government with an MP with not dissimilar personal allegation
Tamworth
Con defending 66.3% Lab 23.7%
Result
Lab 45.8% Tory 40.7 %
The 2024 GE was not dissimilar
Hard to compare as Reform and Green less visible on that seat.
It will be very very interesting to compare these perceptions to the final result.
It feels to me that Reform should be considering a staggering failure if they don't win
The Greens a highly positive and commendable effort
Labour, a win with a slender majority would be reported by right wing media as a terrible result. I'm reality of their unpopularity and that of the PM any vote above 20% would be perceived to be damage limitation, 25% positive and a win frankly a shock outcome
Con and LD can only be measured against 2024 benchmark. Any gain a positive and decline a worry.
I think that is being overoptimistic for Labour.
The latest Nowcast projects Reform 348 MPs and an overall majority but Gorton and Denton staying Labour with Labour 29.4% and Reform on 26.8% tied for second with the Greens on 26.2%.
So Reform don't actually need to win Gorton and Denton even to get a UK majority but if Labour lose even the likes of Gorton and Denton they will be left with well under 100 MPs and if the Greens won it they would be snapping at their heels with around 50 MPs
I think, very politely, there is a bit of a blind spot as to how this site sees Reform.
Reform losing G&D will make very little difference to whether or not they will do well at the next GE. As you say it’s not a must-win seat for them and the seat profile isn’t their strongest. I would say they’d be happy with a top two finish, third would be disappointing and dent their momentum somewhat.
I think many are reading the tea leaves for signs of a significant Reform decline but we are not there - at least not yet. What is also true is that the party isn’t yet able to push into the mid-to-high 30s which would be an election winning position. It is currently stuck around 26-32 - that isn’t a polling position that I’d be confident in them converting into an election win. The key factor in the next 2 years is whether Farage can convince he is a PM in waiting and whether Labour can mount a recovery. Things like G&D, slight shifts in momentum aside, are sideshows in that general picture.
Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.
He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.
One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.
There's something nasty in the woodshed...
I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.
Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.
On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.
For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
The general line is some on here expect and want things to happen quickly whereas the political "process" is generally much slower - not always.
Everyone does some form of wishcasting or hopecasting - it's human nature to, as that savant Geri Horner once said "tell me what you want, what you really, really want" and there's almost a mantra the more you want something to happen, the more you see signs of its imminent happening.
If you want a site with 100% objective commentary, you won't find one. You might find some individuals who are occasionally prepared to be more even handed and praise those whom they normally criticise and criticise those whom they normally praise but that doesn't happen too often and most people's contributions are fairly typical. We know where most people are politically on most things.
If I had to characterise PB, I wouldn't describe it as "centrist" (I don't know what that term means, at least not objectively). It is broadly anti-"Left" (again, depends on what you call "left" and "right" as those terms have lost all meaning if they ever had any), conservative (though not necessarily Conservative) and male. Socially and economically we're sort of conservative though with liberal tendencies.
The other problem is those who get emotionally invested in individual politicians - I don't understand the vitriolic personal antipathy toward Starmer, Reeves, Badenoch, Polanski, Farage, Davey etc, etc. I've no strong feelings about any of them - the only one with whom I'm starting to have a personal issue is Rupert Lowe.
Farage is nasty.
Polanski is a salesman selling plausible bullshit. If Foxtons ever need a spare…
Starmer, Reeves & Davey are bland to the point of existence failure.
They are like Kahn - I think he is the walk on actor for the part of London Mayor in movie. Has one line and appears in the bottom third of the cast list, which you only see if you wait until the cleaners come in to the theatre.
Or if you're waiting for the post-credit scene where they team up.
Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice. Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that..... If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM
Why?
A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory. If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
You could send Michael Crick on a six month fact finding mission to every bingo hall laundrette bar pub restaurant football stadium nightclub prison factory swimming pool park museum art gallery and brothel in the country and you wouldn't find a single person male female or trans who would mention the Chagos Islands. It is something only spoken about amongst a weird subset of PBers
Not to mention that the "ally", and their repeated volte-face on the subject, are the reasons that it can't be ratified. A demand that leaders resign because their understanding with Trump has gone through a series of reversals would only leave Putin and a few other authoritarian leaders unscathed.
Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice. Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that..... If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM
Why?
A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory. If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
You could send Michael Crick on a six month fact finding mission to every bingo hall laundrette bar pub restaurant football stadium nightclub prison factory swimming pool park museum art gallery and brothel in the country and you wouldn't find a single person male female or trans who would mention the Chagos Islands. It is something only spoken about amongst a weird subset of PBers
You should get out more.
Chagos, like Mandelbrot, the Prince formerly known as Andrew and Epstein, has entered the non-political discourse. Coffee machine banter.
“We are paying to give away these islands. How fucked is that?”
Goes with
“We are ruled by nonces and thieves. Bet they are sweating now, though. Ha ha.”
In news that should surprise no-one, security researchers found that a Chinese EV was sending a lot of camera data back to servers in China. Report in FT today.
It is highly disturbing, and we are nowhere in addressing aggressive Chinese spying, and the fact that all Chinese companies are agents of the Chinese Communist Party.
We have this extremely foolish policy of Russia as public enemy number 1, but craven submission to China, which is the power behind Russia. Russia can't even produce EVs, let alone use them to gather geographical data. It is tokenism and cowardice.
We should get rid of the ban on ICE vehicles to reduce prices and protect consumers, before taking whatever action is necessary against Chinese EV producers.
What exactly do you think you have that would be of interest to the Chinese state? I'm seriously interested. I think you're suffering from Walter Mitty syndrome as are many Tories on this site.
I don't agree with you on much but I am 100% with you on this. The nebulous fear that your data is somehow interest to a hostile body makes me laugh.
Your personal data will get sifted to see if it’s of interest. If it isn’t, it will be sold on to the aggregating data brokers.
This represents a threat to your *personal* security. Various crooks use the “jigsaw” technique to pull together enough information to do identity theft etc.
I also don't think it is paranoia not to want a hostile state tracking you everywhere you go or with access to all your security cameras.
Cars are particularly bad as the only way to stop the information leak is to Faraday cage the transmitter, which is not exactly practical.
Chinese tat at home should be stuck on a VLAN with no access from the internet other than through your own VPN, but this is well beyond most users.
I don't really understand why the government is so lax about allowing all this stuff through, particularly as half of it doesn't actually meet any kind of electrical standard.
"I also don't think it is paranoia not to want a hostile state tracking you everywhere you go".
I assume you are the hero of this movie. How many people do the Chinese dedicated to following your every move? Five? Ten?
I am not personally _that_ concerned and I block everything partially out of sheer bloody mindedness, but if the data is of no value then why is it collected? It _is_ collected, as anyone who logs these things will know.
Thirty or forty years ago you used to be able to travel around the country pretty much at will without anyone demanding to know where you are going. Now you can't go past a roundabout without it being logged.
Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.
He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.
One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.
There's something nasty in the woodshed...
I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.
Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.
On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.
For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
The general line is some on here expect and want things to happen quickly whereas the political "process" is generally much slower - not always.
Everyone does some form of wishcasting or hopecasting - it's human nature to, as that savant Geri Horner once said "tell me what you want, what you really, really want" and there's almost a mantra the more you want something to happen, the more you see signs of its imminent happening.
If you want a site with 100% objective commentary, you won't find one. You might find some individuals who are occasionally prepared to be more even handed and praise those whom they normally criticise and criticise those whom they normally praise but that doesn't happen too often and most people's contributions are fairly typical. We know where most people are politically on most things.
If I had to characterise PB, I wouldn't describe it as "centrist" (I don't know what that term means, at least not objectively). It is broadly anti-"Left" (again, depends on what you call "left" and "right" as those terms have lost all meaning if they ever had any), conservative (though not necessarily Conservative) and male. Socially and economically we're sort of conservative though with liberal tendencies.
The other problem is those who get emotionally invested in individual politicians - I don't understand the vitriolic personal antipathy toward Starmer, Reeves, Badenoch, Polanski, Farage, Davey etc, etc. I've no strong feelings about any of them - the only one with whom I'm starting to have a personal issue is Rupert Lowe.
Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.
He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.
One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.
There's something nasty in the woodshed...
I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.
Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.
On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.
For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
The general line is some on here expect and want things to happen quickly whereas the political "process" is generally much slower - not always.
Everyone does some form of wishcasting or hopecasting - it's human nature to, as that savant Geri Horner once said "tell me what you want, what you really, really want" and there's almost a mantra the more you want something to happen, the more you see signs of its imminent happening.
If you want a site with 100% objective commentary, you won't find one. You might find some individuals who are occasionally prepared to be more even handed and praise those whom they normally criticise and criticise those whom they normally praise but that doesn't happen too often and most people's contributions are fairly typical. We know where most people are politically on most things.
If I had to characterise PB, I wouldn't describe it as "centrist" (I don't know what that term means, at least not objectively). It is broadly anti-"Left" (again, depends on what you call "left" and "right" as those terms have lost all meaning if they ever had any), conservative (though not necessarily Conservative) and male. Socially and economically we're sort of conservative though with liberal tendencies.
The other problem is those who get emotionally invested in individual politicians - I don't understand the vitriolic personal antipathy toward Starmer, Reeves, Badenoch, Polanski, Farage, Davey etc, etc. I've no strong feelings about any of them - the only one with whom I'm starting to have a personal issue is Rupert Lowe.
And of course it varies over time, Stodge. You will remember when The Tory Herd was a thing, and occasional infestations of The Yellow Peril. Centrist Dads seems to be the new PB Blob.
You attending The Festival at all? I shall certainly go for one day, possibly two. If going, we could meet up? I usually catch up with ScottP in the Istabraq bar and give him the benefit of my worthless opinions. It would be nice to meet up with you again.
Every time I see Trump these days, I am reminded of the thin and spindly cows on Cold Comfort Farm: Feckless, Aimless, Pointless and Graceless.
He has utterly lost the plot, humourless, belligerent and essentially very stupid, he is a gift to his enemies and an enemy to his friends.
One friend, Farage, might sneak a win tomorrow, but he is going to have to disentangle himself from the slimy embrace of his supposed "best pal". Of course he can't do that- too much of his own schtick is bound up in the Bannon agenda- so regardless of the outcome on Friday morning, I do not see Farage ever being able to much influence, still less lead a government in London.
There's something nasty in the woodshed...
I had the dubious honour of listening to the SOTU speech overnight having fallen asleep with the World service on. Whilst he is a boil on humanity the problem is that last night was one of those big showpieces where he actually delivered well, there are times I found myself laughing at some great delivery. It wasn’t one of his deranged world salads but a well delivered propaganda piece that more Americans will see than the clips that different tribes share of him sounding like he has dementia.
Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.
On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.
For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
The general line is some on here expect and want things to happen quickly whereas the political "process" is generally much slower - not always.
Everyone does some form of wishcasting or hopecasting - it's human nature to, as that savant Geri Horner once said "tell me what you want, what you really, really want" and there's almost a mantra the more you want something to happen, the more you see signs of its imminent happening.
If you want a site with 100% objective commentary, you won't find one. You might find some individuals who are occasionally prepared to be more even handed and praise those whom they normally criticise and criticise those whom they normally praise but that doesn't happen too often and most people's contributions are fairly typical. We know where most people are politically on most things.
If I had to characterise PB, I wouldn't describe it as "centrist" (I don't know what that term means, at least not objectively). It is broadly anti-"Left" (again, depends on what you call "left" and "right" as those terms have lost all meaning if they ever had any), conservative (though not necessarily Conservative) and male. Socially and economically we're sort of conservative though with liberal tendencies.
The other problem is those who get emotionally invested in individual politicians - I don't understand the vitriolic personal antipathy toward Starmer, Reeves, Badenoch, Polanski, Farage, Davey etc, etc. I've no strong feelings about any of them - the only one with whom I'm starting to have a personal issue is Rupert Lowe.
Farage is nasty.
Polanski is a salesman selling plausible bullshit. If Foxtons ever need a spare…
Starmer, Reeves & Davey are bland to the point of existence failure.
They are like Kahn - I think he is the walk on actor for the part of London Mayor in movie. Has one line and appears in the bottom third of the cast list, which you only see if you wait until the cleaners come in to the theatre.
Or if you're waiting for the post-credit scene where they team up.
That’s for the A list stars. These guys might get a repeat on the sequel: if they are really lucky, the writers might put a gag reference in for them - several lines to speak!
I see that energy bills are coming down again from the next quarter by 7%, or an estimated £117, in cash terms from April, or 10% in real terms as we have 3% inflation.
That's the Government's Manifesto's £300 reduction in energy bills by 2030 pledge relative to 2023 more than met four years early, using the "typical household" number.
Minus another 20% or £400+ if we are talking in real terms, since inflation has done 20% since then.
What are the odds that the Govt talk about it in such sotto voce terms in such obscure places so rarely that no one notices, and the shouty Right just move on to the next item on their Whinge List (which TBF is their job)?
I have also just had a note from Octopus that the price for electricity units I export from my solar panels is dropping from 15.5p to 12.5p (which will cost me about £100 per annum).
Tourette's is far more than just swearing. It's an involuntary production of tics, either physical or verbal or both. Swearing is relatively uncommon. It's often combined with OCD or ADHD. Ex-Everton, United and USA goalkeeper now analyst, Tim Howard is a sufferer. He credits it with his sharp reaction times. There are many more people walking around with it, leading perfectly normal lives, than you'd imagine.
Ben Judah, former adviser to Lammy on the media round suggesting Chagos legislation should be put on ice. Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that..... If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM
Why?
A PM unable to get an international treaty he has agreed through parliament when he has a landslide majority because that treaty is incompatible with an existing one and has strained the relationship with our foremost military ally and was giving away our sovereign territory. If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
David Cameron in Dec 2011 blocked an EU-wide deal to tackle the Eurozone crisis, that he supported, but he knew he couldn't get through Parliament. He did not resign. Blair was facing similar problems with the EU in 2004/5. He did not resign. Didn't Lloyd George struggle with some League of Nations stuff in Parliament in the 1920s? He did not resign.
I see that energy bills are coming down again from the next quarter by 7%, or an estimated £117, in cash terms from April, or 10% in real terms as we have 3% inflation.
That's the Government's Manifesto's £300 reduction in energy bills by 2030 pledge relative to 2023 more than met four years early, using the "typical household" number.
Minus another 20% or £400+ if we are talking in real terms, since inflation has done 20% since then.
What are the odds that the Govt talk about it in such sotto voce terms in such obscure places so rarely that no one notices, and the shouty Right just move on to the next item on their Whinge List (which TBF is their job)?
I have also just had a note from Octopus that the price for electricity units I export from my solar panels is dropping from 15.5p to 12.5p (which will cost me about £100 per annum).
Met by moving part of the cost onto taxes, so a bit robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Not met due to productivity, efficiencies or actually reducing costs.
One more point on the Scottish MRP. Reform havent named a single candidate yet. They are behind the 8 ball (are they going to stand all 73 FPTP?)
I assume Offord is a candidate by default, and that weird looking Glasgow councillor also? I’m agog to see which member(s) of the Alba ex-party will declare for Reform.
One more point on the Scottish MRP. Reform havent named a single candidate yet. They are behind the 8 ball (are they going to stand all 73 FPTP?)
I assume Offord is a candidate by default, and that weird looking Glasgow councillor also? I’m agog to see which member(s) of the Alba ex-party will declare for Reform.
Yes, Offord to be fair! And we know Scottish youngsters are mad keen on Lord Malcolm Offord. Ref Landslide
For some reason I decided to look at the Gorton and Denton 2024 result and try to compare it with a similar safe incumbent seat from the last Parliament
Firstly Gorton and Denton
Effectively a new seat in 2024 and even in a Labour wipe out that meant on estimate vote share from 2024 Andrew Gwynne vote share was down 14.3%
That staggered me to be honest. A falling share in a landslide election
Next the 2024 share
Lab 50.8% Reform 14.1 Green 13.2 Workers 10.3 Con 7.9 LD 3.9
Maj 13413
So the Reform and Green base start is actually a lot higher than many will be aware of or understand.
The MP kicked out for erroneous behaviours, so I'll come on to a comparable seat later.
If we assume the workers 10% goes to Green I think we may be wrong, I'd see a split 50 50 of the international lefties Palestine branch and the closet low intellect racist wing to Reform.
So straight away Reform should be polling close to 20% and Green Close to 18 %
It would be a poor piir result for Tories or LD not to match their 2024 share here.
The context though is a hugely unpopular PM the worst ever the right wing media and Tories and Reform tell us.
So even to lose 10% of the Labour vote to each of Reform and Green would be the very very least of Labour fear and expectation.
So you can extrapolate that
30% benchmark is and should be the minimum of Reform and Green expectation, a straight fight surely.
That Labour are being considered to be anywhere remotely close to 30% is staggering in the context of Media expectation and all opinion polling.
3 weeks ago it looked like
Reform 30 to 35 Green 25 to 30 Labour 15 to 20
I suggest therefore that the benchmark of the success or failure of the respective campaigns should be benchmarked up ie down from a base point
Reform 32.5 Green 27.5 Labour 17.5 Tory 7.9 LD 3.8
Compare 2023 by election very unpopular incumbent Government with an MP with not dissimilar personal allegation
Tamworth
Con defending 66.3% Lab 23.7%
Result
Lab 45.8% Tory 40.7 %
The 2024 GE was not dissimilar
Hard to compare as Reform and Green less visible on that seat.
It will be very very interesting to compare these perceptions to the final result.
It feels to me that Reform should be considering a staggering failure if they don't win
The Greens a highly positive and commendable effort
Labour, a win with a slender majority would be reported by right wing media as a terrible result. I'm reality of their unpopularity and that of the PM any vote above 20% would be perceived to be damage limitation, 25% positive and a win frankly a shock outcome
Con and LD can only be measured against 2024 benchmark. Any gain a positive and decline a worry.
I think that is being overoptimistic for Labour.
The latest Nowcast projects Reform 348 MPs and an overall majority but Gorton and Denton staying Labour with Labour 29.4% and Reform on 26.8% tied for second with the Greens on 26.2%.
So Reform don't actually need to win Gorton and Denton even to get a UK majority but if Labour lose even the likes of Gorton and Denton they will be left with well under 100 MPs and if the Greens won it they would be snapping at their heels with around 50 MPs
Comments
US threatens Anthropic with deadline in dispute on AI safeguards
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjrq1vwe73po
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth vowed to remove Anthropic from his agency's supply chain if the company declined to allow its artificial intelligence (AI) technology to be used across military applications.
The threat was issued on Tuesday at a Pentagon meeting that Hegseth had demanded with Anthropic boss Dario Amodei, a source familiar with discussions told the BBC.
"We continued good-faith conversations about our usage policy to ensure Anthropic can continue to support the government's national security mission in line with what our models can reliably and responsibly do," Anthropic said in a statement.
A senior Pentagon official said Anthropic had until Friday evening to comply.
A source told the BBC the tone of the discussion between Hegseth and Amodei was cordial, but Amodei laid out what Anthropic considers to be its red lines.
These include involvement in autonomous kinetic operations in which AI tools make final military targeting decisions without human intervention.
The use of Anthropic tools for mass domestic surveillance constitutes another red line, the source said.
But the Pentagon official told the BBC the current conflict between the agency and Anthropic is unrelated to the use of autonomous weapons or mass surveillance.
The official said that if Anthropic did not comply, Hegseth would ensure the Defense Production Act was invoked on the company.
That measure could compel Anthropic executives to allow unrestricted use by the Pentagon on national security grounds.
The official added that the Pentagon would simultaneously label Anthropic as a supply chain risk...
I don't think the Pentagon is telling the truth here (you will be shocked to learn).
Those two points essentially are Anthropic's red lines.
Hopefully there won’t need to be a similar event next year, but that means everyone stepping up to help Ukraine in any way they can. Rafts of new sanctions announced yesterday are a good start, as was the €90bn loan from the EU from earlier this week. every country that wants to help should be shipping any weapons they can spare, and looking to buy Ukranian exports of anything that gives them hard cash.
Obviously. They can project power in a way Russia cannot.
Our local chapter of the Brotherhood of Saints Cyril and Methodius are off their fucking heads. The armed forces of the Russian Federation are a gang of half-starved junkies in ragged portyanki getting their shit pushed in by Ukraine and, at the same time, a gigantic and relentless mechanised killing mission that can bestride continents. Fucking ludicrous.
*Of course it's far more complex and nuanced and variable than that.
The main UK MiC figures are good for Davey but less good for the Greens ahead of tomorrow's Gorton and Denton by election
Even for him, Starmer is being disgracefully legalistic about our frozen Russian money.
Given hundreds of Ukrainians are dying or badly injured every day protecting Europe, it really is the least we can do.
SEIZE RUSSIAN MONEY NOW.
In the end we modified the code (hacked the binary) to send a stack of different designs - just changed the location the software was swiping files from.
The swapped in files were DXFs generated from individual frames from a film - someone wrote a script to turn every frame into a separate design.
A curious one, i fancy LD hold but you could make a case for Ref and with both Lab and Con on 24% in 2024 here maybe one of them goes hard? There are 2 other Lab councillors here. Theres enough studentry to give the Greens something to work on too.
Havent been back to Shirley in 30 years though so it might as well be in Timbuktu, lol
The Cliff Richard thing is an example of why such behaviour is a bad idea.
https://x.com/mrnickharvey/status/1496850273649950721
Source say Jenrick and his team tried to undermine Yusuf and called him ‘Zia Useless’ only six months before Jenrick defected to Reform UK' https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/robert-jenrick-leak-zia-yusuf-defection-cq9d3m0mv
Its of course possible the Tories are doing badly enough in South Scotland to only get one MSP and come behind Labour in fourth in the list there but if thats true there is no way they are doing well enough to get one MSP everywhere else too (except Glasgow).
It also has Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire, and Galloway and West Dumfries as neck and neck between SNP and Reform so if a few more Tory voters there tactically voted Reform to beat the SNP its is possible Reform could win some constituency seats there as well. Those seats are forecast to be SNP gains from Tory at present.
'Reform UK would be within five points of the SNP in three constituencies - Banffshire and Buchan Coast (currently held by the SNP), Dumfriesshire, and Galloway and West Dumfries.' So those are also top Reform Holyrood constituency targets where Tory tactical votes could help them beat the SNP
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-snp-on-track-for-historic-holyrood-majority-thanks-to-tactical-voting-5610851
And when Taiwan goes for ugly and boring it doesn’t mess about. I think it must have the ugliest towns in the developed world, edging out Korea
If they're correct, then N Yorks has an agreement with the government to begin collections by 1 February 2043, which seems a touch unambitious. Or maybe someone didn't check their data properly (even 2034 seems unlikely, so not sure what the correct date should be!)
WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧
@WarMonitor3
The Trump administration has formally warned Ukraine not to strike targets within Russia that could hit US economic interests-FT
10:15 pm · 24 Feb 2026
https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/2026420871766692266?s=20
And they can at the same time be a bunch of starving junkies, while conducting 1000 drone raids every week.
It's just as ludicrous to be arguing that Ukraine should sue for peace and surrender defensible territory, while saying the invading forces are a busted flush.
Wars are stupid and contradictory, certainly. Encouraging those who start them by rewarding them for doing so is far more stupid.
We will see soon enough.
Democrats in the House Oversight Committee just released this statement:
“For the last few weeks, Oversight Democrats have been investigating the FBI’s handling of allegations from 2019 of sexual assault on a minor made against President Donald Trump by a survivor.
Oversight Democrats can confirm that the DOJ appears to have illegally withheld FBI interviews with a survivor.
Covering up direct evidence of a potential assault by the President of the United States is the most serious possible crime in this White House cover up.”
https://x.com/krassenstein/status/2026344266918932755
A felony much easier to demonstrate in court beyond reasonable doubt than any one particular allegation arising from the Epstein files.
Unfortunately short of a stroke he’s here for a while and we need to stop basing our projections on what we want to happen rather than how things are - this site can be terrible with wishcasting which then doesn’t allow sensible analysis.
On PB Iran has been bombed to smithereens every night for the last month, Putin has been imminently dying from some terrible illness for four years, Ukraine is about to black out Russia, Russia is about to go bust, Starmer is having to step down every day.
For a site which has been self labelled as being widely read in Westminster and thinks it knows it’s stuff we are terrible at getting stories about geopolitics right. There are people on here who get weird info right on items like who will win some tiny council election but when it comes to the big stuff we probably allow our hopes to massively overrule the reality over and over again.
It was a curious mix at the time, some students in HMOs but also some nice semis. Some of the uni staff lived there.
Back then it was moving Lab from Con.
Strong rumours a parliamentary statement later today will do just that.....
If so it would be, in normal times, a resigning matter for the PM
He lost his Republican audience on tariffs but only briefly.
Its a really interesting one, im quite interested in how it goes
I agree, btw, that Trump was on form last night. For a man of his advanced years and alleged senility, he knows how to deliver both a gag and a put down, and also how to ad lib
He is not yet anywhere near Biden levels of dribbling
But Jesus he does drone on. Like an American Castro
Trumpismo o Muerte!
No actual figures released.
Four years into the war now and I fear that Ukraine can't tell the US to go swivel because Europe has failed to get its act together.
On the one hand, firing off random, racist,witless utterances cannot be condoned and it must have caused pain. On the other hand we need to understand the medical context. The president has dementia.
https://bsky.app/profile/paulsinha.bsky.social/post/3mfoaj5a7nk2o
But to get that you need the data of millions of individuals
I do think PB gets things wrong. Last week was full of posters claiming that Starmer was toast, yet I couldn't see how he was going to be removed or by whom. I think we have all got used to the Tory psycho-drama a bit too much. Labour doesn't remove its leaders in the same way, and any coup was always going to be after May at the earliest.
PB is the home for spotting the value bet from a long way out. If you pay attention, every now and then there is good money to be made from decent tips. It is also stacked with experts on many disparate things, and this usually provides a decent information source to counter bollocks in the media.
But its also riddled with men, centrist men at that. We are lucky to have a few voices from the outer reaches of the political horseshoe.
Firstly Gorton and Denton
Effectively a new seat in 2024 and even in a Labour wipe out that meant on estimate vote share from 2024 Andrew Gwynne vote share was down 14.3%
That staggered me to be honest. A falling share in a landslide election
Next the 2024 share
Lab 50.8%
Reform 14.1
Green 13.2
Workers 10.3
Con 7.9
LD 3.9
Maj 13413
So the Reform and Green base start is actually a lot higher than many will be aware of or understand.
The MP kicked out for erroneous behaviours, so I'll come on to a comparable seat later.
If we assume the workers 10% goes to Green I think we may be wrong, I'd see a split 50 50 of the international lefties Palestine branch and the closet low intellect racist wing to Reform.
So straight away Reform should be polling close to 20% and Green Close to 18 %
It would be a poor piir result for Tories or LD not to match their 2024 share here.
The context though is a hugely unpopular PM the worst ever the right wing media and Tories and Reform tell us.
So even to lose 10% of the Labour vote to each of Reform and Green would be the very very least of Labour fear and expectation.
So you can extrapolate that
30% benchmark is and should be the minimum of Reform and Green expectation, a straight fight surely.
That Labour are being considered to be anywhere remotely close to 30% is staggering in the context of Media expectation and all opinion polling.
3 weeks ago it looked like
Reform 30 to 35
Green 25 to 30
Labour 15 to 20
I suggest therefore that the benchmark of the success or failure of the respective campaigns should be benchmarked up ie down from a base point
Reform 32.5
Green 27.5
Labour 17.5
Tory 7.9
LD 3.8
Compare 2023 by election very unpopular incumbent Government with an MP with not dissimilar personal allegation
Tamworth
Con defending 66.3%
Lab 23.7%
Result
Lab 45.8%
Tory 40.7 %
The 2024 GE was not dissimilar
Hard to compare as Reform and Green less visible on that seat.
It will be very very interesting to compare these perceptions to the final result.
It feels to me that Reform should be considering a staggering failure if they don't win
The Greens a highly positive and commendable effort
Labour, a win with a slender majority would be reported by right wing media as a terrible result. I'm reality of their unpopularity and that of the PM any vote above 20% would be perceived to be damage limitation, 25% positive and a win frankly a shock outcome
Con and LD can only be measured against 2024 benchmark. Any gain a positive and decline a worry.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/lzUAl7Yw6Io
Sure, for example, there are a few posters who are consistently very optimistic about Ukraine's chances and have predicted an imminent Russian collapse for a long time. I remember how Chinese truck tyres were going to cripple Russian logistics too. But that's not the collective PB.com view. You'll find other posters injecting a note of realism or contrarianism into such debates.
It irritates me when posters pretend there's a monolithic PB.com opinion that they can present themselves as a wise contrary savant providing corrections to.
An SNP majority?
Doesn't smell right. Unless the collective view is vote SNP to stop Reform. But that being the case would Reform win 25 list seats?
This represents a threat to your *personal* security. Various crooks use the “jigsaw” technique to pull together enough information to do identity theft etc.
Its also based on 2500 responses, but only 900 of those are from Jan/Feb, so its very different from all the other polling.
Ill be interested in the tables
And LD hold 5 constituencies against the all conquering SNP but utterly bomb in the list?
The latest Nowcast projects Reform 348 MPs and an overall majority but Gorton and Denton staying Labour with Labour 29.4% and Reform on 26.8% tied for second with the Greens on 26.2%.
So Reform don't actually need to win Gorton and Denton even to get a UK majority but if Labour lose even the likes of Gorton and Denton they will be left with well under 100 MPs and if the Greens won it they would be snapping at their heels with around 50 MPs
https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
Based on his meetings with Hammond, Hunt, Reeves in the past, if they don't agree 100% with his view they will end up being the subject of a 3 minute vitriilic attack at the end of one of his shows
Reeves, Hunt, Hammond whatever their politics are respectable decent logical amiable types
This pair are built on massive ego and never ever wrong
Helmets on
After 11 round of negotiations he will simply say, you fucked it up, I tried my best.
The voting system in Scotland really is a pretty awful Frankenstein mess of a voting system.
It's worth remembering that Green Party national and local politics have been different animals for a long time. This imo is quite national.
If thats not a resigning matter, nothing is
https://x.com/uklabour/status/2026390853309063292
Everyone does some form of wishcasting or hopecasting - it's human nature to, as that savant Geri Horner once said "tell me what you want, what you really, really want" and there's almost a mantra the more you want something to happen, the more you see signs of its imminent happening.
If you want a site with 100% objective commentary, you won't find one. You might find some individuals who are occasionally prepared to be more even handed and praise those whom they normally criticise and criticise those whom they normally praise but that doesn't happen too often and most people's contributions are fairly typical. We know where most people are politically on most things.
If I had to characterise PB, I wouldn't describe it as "centrist" (I don't know what that term means, at least not objectively). It is broadly anti-"Left" (again, depends on what you call "left" and "right" as those terms have lost all meaning if they ever had any), conservative (though not necessarily Conservative) and male. Socially and economically we're sort of conservative though with liberal tendencies.
The other problem is those who get emotionally invested in individual politicians - I don't understand the vitriolic personal antipathy toward Starmer, Reeves, Badenoch, Polanski, Farage, Davey etc, etc. I've no strong feelings about any of them - the only one with whom I'm starting to have a personal issue is Rupert Lowe.
Cars are particularly bad as the only way to stop the information leak is to Faraday cage the transmitter, which is not exactly practical.
Chinese tat at home should be stuck on a VLAN with no access from the internet other than through your own VPN, but this is well beyond most users.
I don't really understand why the government is so lax about allowing all this stuff through, particularly as half of it doesn't actually meet any kind of electrical standard.
But - and its a big but - there is a smell coming off this scenario which doesn't feel right.
The SNP have a sizeable core support and little outside that. Reform have a much smaller core support and little outside that. Labour and Tory votes appear to be dissipating, with Green and LibDem taking off them.
There is a clear and unambiguous dislike of the SNP government outside its core vote. Its far more palpable than last time, so the idea of their constituency vote going up feels far fetched - unless it was an anti fuker tactical vote. But as the fukers are more prominent on the lists the anti vote would go to Labour / LibDem / Green. And according to this poll it isn't.
Something is amiss.
Like the comedies with the NHS data. Any sane IP manager would leverage that into a huge investment by drug companies etc while protecting the data. “Want to use the data? Well it physically has to stay in the U.K. So sadly you’ll need to set an onshore company and setup a large building full of U.K. employees to work with it. Sorry about that - rules.”
The idiots seem to spend all their time trying to give it to Palantir etc.
I assume you are the hero of this movie. How many people do the Chinese dedicated to following your every move? Five? Ten?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq69q36gpg8o
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/reform-uk-scottish-labour-party-snp-tories-b1268182.html
Polanski is a salesman selling plausible bullshit. If Foxtons ever need a spare…
Starmer, Reeves & Davey are bland to the point of existence failure.
They are like Kahn - I think he is the walk on actor for the part of London Mayor in movie. Has one line and appears in the bottom third of the cast list, which you only see if you wait until the cleaners come in to the theatre.
Reform losing G&D will make very little difference to whether or not they will do well at the next GE. As you say it’s not a must-win seat for them and the seat profile isn’t their strongest. I would say they’d be happy with a top two finish, third would be disappointing and dent their momentum somewhat.
I think many are reading the tea leaves for signs of a significant Reform decline but we are not there - at least not yet. What is also true is that the party isn’t yet able to push into the mid-to-high 30s which would be an election winning position. It is currently stuck around 26-32 - that isn’t a polling position that I’d be confident in them converting into an election win. The key factor in the next 2 years is whether Farage can convince he is a PM in waiting and whether Labour can mount a recovery. Things like G&D, slight shifts in momentum aside, are sideshows in that general picture.
A demand that leaders resign because their understanding with Trump has gone through a series of reversals would only leave Putin and a few other authoritarian leaders unscathed.
Chagos, like Mandelbrot, the Prince formerly known as Andrew and Epstein, has entered the non-political discourse. Coffee machine banter.
“We are paying to give away these islands. How fucked is that?”
Goes with
“We are ruled by nonces and thieves. Bet they are sweating now, though. Ha ha.”
Thirty or forty years ago you used to be able to travel around the country pretty much at will without anyone demanding to know where you are going. Now you can't go past a roundabout without it being logged.
Do we actually feel any safer as a result?
You attending The Festival at all? I shall certainly go for one day, possibly two. If going, we could meet up? I usually catch up with ScottP in the Istabraq bar and give him the benefit of my worthless opinions. It would be nice to meet up with you again.
I see that energy bills are coming down again from the next quarter by 7%, or an estimated £117, in cash terms from April, or 10% in real terms as we have 3% inflation.
That's the Government's Manifesto's £300 reduction in energy bills by 2030 pledge relative to 2023 more than met four years early, using the "typical household" number.
£2500 in 2023 Q2, £2074 in 2023 Q3 and £1641 in 2026 Q2.
https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/what-is-the-energy-price-cap/
Minus another 20% or £400+ if we are talking in real terms, since inflation has done 20% since then.
What are the odds that the Govt talk about it in such sotto voce terms in such obscure places so rarely that no one notices, and the shouty Right just move on to the next item on their Whinge List (which TBF is their job)?
I have also just had a note from Octopus that the price for electricity units I export from my solar panels is dropping from 15.5p to 12.5p (which will cost me about £100 per annum).
It's an involuntary production of tics, either physical or verbal or both.
Swearing is relatively uncommon. It's often combined with OCD or ADHD.
Ex-Everton, United and USA goalkeeper now analyst, Tim Howard is a sufferer.
He credits it with his sharp reaction times.
There are many more people walking around with it, leading perfectly normal lives, than you'd imagine.
Not met due to productivity, efficiencies or actually reducing costs.