Restore are keen followers of the betting markets – politicalbetting.com
Restore are keen followers of the betting markets – politicalbetting.com
I find it quite astonishing that a party that has never had an MP elected under the Restore banner is attracting quite so many bets, as for the Rupert Lowe as next PM, my eyebrows are so raised they are in the stratosphere.
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Bung 50k into the Betfair market and get 500k worth of publicity.
Idk, I feel like the main impact of Musk ranting about Farage not being right wing enough would just be to secure Reform's hold over the mainstream right by assuring them they are not extreme, so it weirdly hurts the Tories more.
Or something.
But he's not exactly 'sensible.'
The fascists are with us
And we've got the backing"
https://www.hoover.org/profiles/h-r-mcmaster
Oh wait, it went to America and called itself crypto investment, 'settlements', and donations to the Board of Peace.
One day people will be able to vote for the centrist party, the moderate party, the middleground party, and the new centrist party.
The LDs will still be on 10%.
😎
What’s also clear is how heavy the shadow of Iraq hung over the reputation of US and UK intelligence.
As always with far right shenanigans, look to France for precedent. Zemmour had the same effect on Le Pen.
His point that just because Trump & co have been throwing insults & threats left, right and centre Europe should not rock the boat inclines me to think the general should shove his 3 stars up his arse.
How’s about that then
Restore have now put in their application to the Electoral Commission on Feb 20 but its unlikely they get approved in time for May nominations. The local project Great Yarmouth First went in on Feb 3rd and may also miss out in which case he will have to run Indies who later 'defect' but good luck informing the electorate who is Lowe and who is not.
If he does get GYF on the ballot in the 9 wards for the county council, what effect? Im not sure. It might well take enough off Reform to allow Con or Lab to hold some wards, they might win some, they might clean up. Lowe has an effect locally and Yarmouth has a habit of moving hard when it moves.
There should be an elaborate mandarin phrase for “the peculiar joy of accomplishing humdrum tasks in challengingly exotic environments”
I had the same feeling when I got a haircut in Odessa during an air raid
I would tentatively offer Fort William for the phenomenon you describe, but am sure other posters can do better.
Ask yourself who doesn't know, the right winger who has a choice of Reform or Reform, or the left winger who has the choice of Green or Labour. It's clearly the latter (I think Foxy mentioned that the data sets bore this out).
So a large number of older, probably left leaning, don't knows. Many will have a say.
I predicted that the Lab + Green vote would be more than double the Reform vote, although the poll doesn't say that, I see in those DKs the voter base for that to happen. I also see how the idea the Greens are at least competitive could lead to something of a domino effect in these older DKs, less clear cut than Caerphilly, but there nonetheless.
Basically, I see support for my standing prediction (Green 40, Ref 28, Lab 25), confirmation bias perhaps, in the polling data here. And a Reform third place as distinctly possible.
#NeverMeetYourHeroes
Wasn’t he involved in TVS or Southern TV too ?
Wales are 8/1 to beat Scotland today... are they really that bad? The last 2 games have been very close
One of my favourites - and genuinely useful - is “ibstock”
An “ibstock” is a perfectly sized length of natural wood - a small branch perhaps - that you find at the beginning of a rural walk, and which functions as an excellent walking stick for the duration of the walk, and is discarded at the end
There is great pleasure in finding a nice ibstock
On 8 August, Lowe posted a picture on X (formerly Twitter) of a small boat off the Norfolk coast, stating: "Dinghies coming into Great Yarmouth, RIGHT NOW. Authorities alerted, and I am urgently chasing. If these are illegal migrants, I will be using every tool at my disposal to ensure these individuals are deported." Great Yarmouth is some 110 miles (175 km) north of Dover, where migrants in small boats usually land, and the same distance from the coast of the Netherlands. It transpired that the boat was a party of volunteers rowing from Land's End to John O'Groats, to raise money for a motor neuron disease charity.
Mark of the man.
Although his profile and knowledge of him in East Norfolk is rather different now. The monthly salary donation to a local charity always hits the local paper and there is the attraction of having a local rabble rouser/pot stirrer.
The 9 wards in Yarmouth are in 2 halves so different groups to fight for. Broadly (pun), the Yarmouth wards and Caister are Blackpool/Skeggy a bit run down, poorer than the rest of the county, former glory seaside town etc and Ormesby and the Fleggburgh/Flegg wards are sleepy Tory shire Broads villages without the usual LD incursions (it is perhaps no coincidence there is no decent road connection from the Fleggs into the LD dominated North Norfolk next door!)
“Glasgow” is the sadness that overcomes you when you unexpectedly walk into a loud crowded room full of noisy, happy people at least fifteen years younger than you
In the doing of my job I encounter quite a lot of Glasgow, around the world. I’ve devised coping mechanisms, which mainly involve denial
Evidence perhaps that judgement is something that tends to come with experience.
I’d rather have light luggage and the odd trip to a laundrette than massive bags with coats and stuff
Also in places like Bangkok it is trivially easy to get laundry done by the kilo with zero hassle. Not so in Taiwan
Nearest is apparently in Ely, Cambs
My one proper post op transsexual friend is lesbianly married to the sister of the widow of Douglas Adams
The estate was frigging enormous and still generates ££££££
A clever chap even if his humour was a bit sophomoric at times. RIP
I wonder how he’d feel about so many of his sci fi predictions coming true. Eg babelfish.
Tbf with that cv he could be Secretary of War in the US.
https://x.com/reformexposed/status/2025103719051001866?s=20
Nevertheless, it's not just the policy (bad as that is) but the rhetoric around younger voters that is a big problem.
And, although I know papers need selling, it will do no harm to the monarchy.
I also find him mildly but pleasantly spiritual, but then I'm smitten.
I'd be very worried if I were Peter Mandelson too.
Where are these 86% of bets Roops is waffling about?
I make it more like 2% on BFX.
Trivia: I'm still surprised by the widespread use of his phrase "Total Existence Failure"; coming soon for the Conservatives.
An Ibstock is a house brick, by the way.
https://www.ibstock.co.uk/
I don't think adults understand what a massive fuck-off to the young this policy continues to be. England and Wales, along with the USA, is a massuve outlier in the west in starting half its young out in life with tens of thousands of pounds of debt. It's no wonder the young are willing to give the Greens - who in general, I agree with CR, are a bunch of batshit extremists who make Reform look like the Sensible Party - a look.
Ensure everyone has a decent stake in society, so that they fear revolutionaries. It may have cost a fair bit, but good insurance often does.
Concede reforms if the alternative is a revolution.
At some point, the Conservatives became a trade union for pensioners and rentiers, which has just pissed off everyone younger. And I'm not sure they have enough strength to survive another change now.
It's all a bit apres nous, la deluge.
All becomes clear grasshopper...........
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ahv3IKzMdHA
Cook Ding was carving an ox carcass for Lord Wenhui. With each touch of his hand, heave of his shoulder, step of his feet, thrust of his knee – whop! whish! – he wielded his knife with a whoosh, and every move was in rhythm. It was as though he were performing the Dance of the Mulberry Grove or keeping to the beat of the Constant Source music.
“Ah, marvelous!” said Lord Wenhui. “Surely this is the acme of skill!” Cook Ding laid down his knife and replied, “What your servant loves, my lord, is the Dao, and that is a step beyond skill. At the beginning, when I first began carving up oxen, all I could see was the whole carcass. After three years I could no longer see the carcass whole, and now I meet it with my spirit and don’t look with my eyes. Perception and understanding cease and spirit moves as it will. I follow the natural form: slicing the major joints I guide the knife through the big hollows, and by conforming to the inherent contours, no vessels or tendons or tangles of sinews – much less the big bones – block my blade in the least.
“A good cook changes his knife once a year, but this is mere slicing. An ordinary cook changes his knife once a month, because he hacks. I’ve been using this knife now for nineteen years; it has carved thousands of oxen, yet the blade is as sharp as one fresh off the grindstone. You see, there are gaps between these joints, but the blade edge has no thickness. If a knife with no thickness moves into a gap, then it’s wide as need be and the blade wanders freely with plenty of leeway. That’s why after nineteen years the blade of my knife is as sharp as one fresh off the grindstone.
“But nevertheless, whenever a tangled knot lies ahead, I spot the challenge and on the alert I focus my sight and slow down my hand – then I flick the blade with the slightest of moves, and before you know it the carcass has fallen apart like earth crumbling to the ground. I stand with knife raised and face all four directions in turn, prancing in place with complete satisfaction. Then I wipe off the knife and put it away.”
“How fine!” said Lord Wenhui. “Listening to the words of Cook Ding, I have learned how to nurture life!”
https://scholarworks.iu.edu/iuswrrest/api/core/bitstreams/5dc89a23-c6bf-4190-a1e4-6762dc5359cc/content
But Liverpool Street station Gail's is literally next-door to Greggs!
It was such an Osbornite thing to do: screw the young, and protect the old; Cameron totally failed to see around the corner, because he outsourced his thinking on anything fiscal to him.
It would cost £10bn a year to reverse it (at least, which we don't have) but I'd do it and fund by replacing the triple-lock with the smoothed earnings approach recommended by the IFS.
Until, after about ten minutes of trying to get into the discussion or to be taken seriously she said loudly that "Her nephew was Douglas Adams"!
You never know!
Constituency
SNP 36
Ref 21
Lab 12 (lol)
Green 10
LD 9
Con 7 (lol)
Alba 2
Regional
SNP 29
Ref 20
Green 14
Lab 12
Con 10
LD 9
Alba 2
53 47 for Indy
https://bsky.app/profile/jacktindale.bsky.social/post/3mfe7q34xrk24
I think the best one, that the company I am involved with built, was 20m long.
They are bleeding out in front of our eyes and it's beautiful. 🥀
But he is right.
Working out how to use the baffling cash operated launderette in S Korea - something which would just be a source of irritation or frustration back home - was highly enjoyable.
And made PB perfect by being able to rescue an English couple who arrived both equally baffled, and cashless.
Or Tissington. Or Hoylandswaine. Or Frome.
It was a temple to ruched fabric...
Reform will be on at least 20 seats on that result, and they'd be taking some constituencies. Tories would be in or close to single figures MSPs
The legacy of scepticism created by US misinformation on Iraq still has huge consequences;
US overestimation of Russia capacity (which continues today);
US reluctance to send Ukraine any significant military aid (even greater today);
A new readiness to plan for extreme events (Canada war gaming US invasion plans);
This is a fascinating suggestion, and I suspect correct:
Others suggest that Zelenskyy’s refusal to raise the alarm – even if not by design – could be what saved Ukraine. “If he had started to talk about an oncoming war, had told everyone to prepare, society would have panicked and millions would have fled,” said one HUR general. “The country would most likely have fallen.”..
The still under appreciated point is that it was as much as anything Ukraine's significant stocks of Cold War artillery which halted the Russian advance on Kyiv.
I am the only westerner here. There are 7000 stalls. All I want is a gin and tonic
It appears to be too difficult for pollsters to only give people the constituency option for Green if they have a candidate standing. The turnout will be down for this election but this result would easily give JS at least 50 constituency seats