30% of Labour voters and 25% of Green voters and 45% of LDs would vote Tory in a seat where only Reform or the Conservatives could win on that new Yougov poll
Indeed. Reform sweeping East Anglia as per MRPs looks a stretch.
The number of left wing voters who would switch to the Conservatives, and the number of Conservative voters who would switch to Labour, under any circumstances, is miniscule. If Reform really do poll 29%, they will sweep East Anglia.
45% of LDs and 30% of Labour voters being willing to tactically vote Tory to beat Reform with Yougov today is not miniscule it is nearly half of LD voters and nearly a third of Labour voters!
If they really did cross the political divide, it would be big, but we know that in practice, they do not.
We've tested it in 206 local by elections since May 2025. Reform have won 73 (35%) on 27% of the vote. The Conservatives have won 24 (12%) on 17% of the vote. If there were any evidence for left wingers for the Conservatives, we would expect it to show up in real votes.
9,710 UK medical graduate applications to specialty training programmes.
6,913 International medical graduate applications to speciality training programmes.
In 2025:
12,316 UK medical graduate applications to specialty training programmes.
20,807 International medical graduate applications to speciality training programmes.
No wonder UK grads now finish university, do two years on the job training as foundation doctors and then end up unemployed.
Number of grad applications though increased for both UK and overseas applicants but the number of doctor and consultant training places hasn't. There are only 12,000 such training places a year and only 23% of overseas applicants are successful compared to 69% of UK applicants
Yes, but that means 5 000 successful IMG applications out of 12 807 places, so over a 3rd of ST places go to IMGs.
Yes but given the majority of applications are from overseas now that is a far lower success rate for ST places than UK applicants
That isn’t the point. The point is that we (i.e. the country) have paid a lot of money to train our best and brightest as doctors to leave them unemployed. That’s a ridiculous state of affairs.
So ban immigrants from overseas taking medical jobs then I presume, British doctor jobs for only British medical grads! Nige and Rupert would be proud of you!
Alternatively, give anyone graduating from a U.K. university absolute priority for a training place.
Which is effectively the same thing, given there are 12,316 UK medical grad applicants and only 12,000 training places available
Some applicants will apply for more than one training programme so not quite
'The government has put an offer to the British Medical Association (BMA) that would put in place emergency legislation for UK and Republic of Ireland medical graduates and doctors who have worked in the NHS for a significant period of time to be prioritised for specialty training and tackling bottlenecks through an overhaul of recruitment for medical training. Should the BMA accept this offer, the government will accelerate plans to prioritise these medics, addressing the current system that has led to soaring competition ratios - with current applicants set to benefit from the 2026 intake.
This should be held off and only implemented once the strikes have been called off and the union commits to no further action this negotiation cycle.
Some doctors are voting to strike due to pay, others are voting to strike due to training programme availability. This possibly vastly reduces the appetite to strike without having to agree anything.
It’s also the right thing to do and doesn’t cost anything.
Yep I think there's two camps here, one justifiably mad (Docs that can't get in such as your other half); the other... not so much. I reckon there's probably something like this going on with GPs too - GP partnerships who have completely overloaded their books and refuse to take on salaried GPs as they've got used to big old profit shares.
The GP partnership model is broken.
Starmer has stated that the traditional GP partnership model is "coming to an end of its life" and that the NHS needs more salaried GPs. The government is trialling local health centres with salaried GPs. This is a positive move that doesn't get as much attention as it should.
This all goes back to GPs in 1945 being opposed to the creation of the NHS, so the government let them stay out of the system and remain independent.
That is basically the same "polyclinic" concept Lord Darzi has been touting to Labour governments for the past 25 years. Oddly, it is not entirely new as the third original branch of the NHS, public health, operated clinics at least up to the 1970s. More recently, though, GP practices are consolidating, sometimes bought out by private equity. (Vets too!)
As with 1980s banks, the partners sitting down when the music stops and the sale is made can make a packet.
"In an effort to change their fortunes, residents voted for Brexit nearly a decade ago. Since then, official data shows the area has become poorer still and last May, people decided to toss the political dice once more by voting Reform."
I wonder how these voters will feel after Reform's planned budget cuts, NHS privatisation etc.
Youth unemployment is now higher in the UK than the EU for the first time since we started recording the figures, apparently.
Another Brexit dividend.
Fuck knows why anyone believes Brexit's chief propagandist can sort out the mess he created.
(Also FPT, as somewhat on topic.)
Blaming Brexit - the last refuge of the progressive loon whose policies over nearly 30 years have utterly wrecked the country.
Half of the last 30 years have had Conservative Prime Ministers in number 10.
The UK has the sixth largest GDP in the world. We're 20th on GDP per capita. We're 17th on the Economist's Democracy Index. We're 3rd on number of scientific publications and keep winning Nobel prizes (two last year, four the year before). We're 5th by military expenditure. And we're 13th in the Winter Olympics medals table so far! It doesn't seem like the country is "utterly wrecked".
Spreadsheets don’t win wars - it’s clear that our military has a huge problem. From the spending on Ajax and other failed projects, the huge cost of trident being taken out of the military budget so whilst budget it big it’s not conventionally effective. We’ve seen the latest where NATO troops were wiped out in an exercise against Ukrainian kit and tactics.
So one really needs to get a grip of the MOD and military and have a brutal focus on the kit we need now and near future for the only wars we should be involved in.
Sell Chagos to the US for starters and use the money on buying the rights to build tested kit and building the factories to make them here under licence.
Keep Chagos and sell Northern Ireland as suggested by another PB'er?
9,710 UK medical graduate applications to specialty training programmes.
6,913 International medical graduate applications to speciality training programmes.
In 2025:
12,316 UK medical graduate applications to specialty training programmes.
20,807 International medical graduate applications to speciality training programmes.
No wonder UK grads now finish university, do two years on the job training as foundation doctors and then end up unemployed.
Number of grad applications though increased for both UK and overseas applicants but the number of doctor and consultant training places hasn't. There are only 12,000 such training places a year and only 23% of overseas applicants are successful compared to 69% of UK applicants
Yes, but that means 5 000 successful IMG applications out of 12 807 places, so over a 3rd of ST places go to IMGs.
Yes but given the majority of applications are from overseas now that is a far lower success rate for ST places than UK applicants
That isn’t the point. The point is that we (i.e. the country) have paid a lot of money to train our best and brightest as doctors to leave them unemployed. That’s a ridiculous state of affairs.
So ban immigrants from overseas taking medical jobs then I presume, British doctor jobs for only British medical grads! Nige and Rupert would be proud of you!
Alternatively, give anyone graduating from a U.K. university absolute priority for a training place.
Which is effectively the same thing, given there are 12,316 UK medical grad applicants and only 12,000 training places available
Some applicants will apply for more than one training programme so not quite
'The government has put an offer to the British Medical Association (BMA) that would put in place emergency legislation for UK and Republic of Ireland medical graduates and doctors who have worked in the NHS for a significant period of time to be prioritised for specialty training and tackling bottlenecks through an overhaul of recruitment for medical training. Should the BMA accept this offer, the government will accelerate plans to prioritise these medics, addressing the current system that has led to soaring competition ratios - with current applicants set to benefit from the 2026 intake.
This should be held off and only implemented once the strikes have been called off and the union commits to no further action this negotiation cycle.
Some doctors are voting to strike due to pay, others are voting to strike due to training programme availability. This possibly vastly reduces the appetite to strike without having to agree anything.
It’s also the right thing to do and doesn’t cost anything.
Yep I think there's two camps here, one justifiably mad (Docs that can't get in such as your other half); the other... not so much. I reckon there's probably something like this going on with GPs too - GP partnerships who have completely overloaded their books and refuse to take on salaried GPs as they've got used to big old profit shares.
The GP partnership model is broken.
Starmer has stated that the traditional GP partnership model is "coming to an end of its life" and that the NHS needs more salaried GPs. The government is trialling local health centres with salaried GPs. This is a positive move that doesn't get as much attention as it should.
This all goes back to GPs in 1945 being opposed to the creation of the NHS, so the government let them stay out of the system and remain independent.
That is basically the same "polyclinic" concept Lord Darzi has been touting to Labour governments for the past 25 years. Oddly, it is not entirely new as the third original branch of the NHS, public health, operated clinics at least up to the 1970s. More recently, though, GP practices are consolidating, sometimes bought out by private equity. (Vets too!)
As with 1980s banks, the partners sitting down when the music stops and the sale is made can make a packet.
GP partnerships need to be undercut by rapid role out of local health centres with salaried GPs. Just do it.
9,710 UK medical graduate applications to specialty training programmes.
6,913 International medical graduate applications to speciality training programmes.
In 2025:
12,316 UK medical graduate applications to specialty training programmes.
20,807 International medical graduate applications to speciality training programmes.
No wonder UK grads now finish university, do two years on the job training as foundation doctors and then end up unemployed.
Number of grad applications though increased for both UK and overseas applicants but the number of doctor and consultant training places hasn't. There are only 12,000 such training places a year and only 23% of overseas applicants are successful compared to 69% of UK applicants
Yes, but that means 5 000 successful IMG applications out of 12 807 places, so over a 3rd of ST places go to IMGs.
Yes but given the majority of applications are from overseas now that is a far lower success rate for ST places than UK applicants
That isn’t the point. The point is that we (i.e. the country) have paid a lot of money to train our best and brightest as doctors to leave them unemployed. That’s a ridiculous state of affairs.
So ban immigrants from overseas taking medical jobs then I presume, British doctor jobs for only British medical grads! Nige and Rupert would be proud of you!
Alternatively, give anyone graduating from a U.K. university absolute priority for a training place.
Which is effectively the same thing, given there are 12,316 UK medical grad applicants and only 12,000 training places available
Some applicants will apply for more than one training programme so not quite
'The government has put an offer to the British Medical Association (BMA) that would put in place emergency legislation for UK and Republic of Ireland medical graduates and doctors who have worked in the NHS for a significant period of time to be prioritised for specialty training and tackling bottlenecks through an overhaul of recruitment for medical training. Should the BMA accept this offer, the government will accelerate plans to prioritise these medics, addressing the current system that has led to soaring competition ratios - with current applicants set to benefit from the 2026 intake.
This should be held off and only implemented once the strikes have been called off and the union commits to no further action this negotiation cycle.
Some doctors are voting to strike due to pay, others are voting to strike due to training programme availability. This possibly vastly reduces the appetite to strike without having to agree anything.
It’s also the right thing to do and doesn’t cost anything.
Yep I think there's two camps here, one justifiably mad (Docs that can't get in such as your other half); the other... not so much. I reckon there's probably something like this going on with GPs too - GP partnerships who have completely overloaded their books and refuse to take on salaried GPs as they've got used to big old profit shares.
The GP partnership model is broken.
Starmer has stated that the traditional GP partnership model is "coming to an end of its life" and that the NHS needs more salaried GPs. The government is trialling local health centres with salaried GPs. This is a positive move that doesn't get as much attention as it should.
This all goes back to GPs in 1945 being opposed to the creation of the NHS, so the government let them stay out of the system and remain independent.
That is basically the same "polyclinic" concept Lord Darzi has been touting to Labour governments for the past 25 years. Oddly, it is not entirely new as the third original branch of the NHS, public health, operated clinics at least up to the 1970s. More recently, though, GP practices are consolidating, sometimes bought out by private equity. (Vets too!)
As with 1980s banks, the partners sitting down when the music stops and the sale is made can make a packet.
GP partnerships need to be undercut by rapid role out of local health centres with salaried GPs. Just do it.
GP partnerships these days employ lots of salaried GPs. It's not either-or. They also typically employ nurses and whatever the non-doctors are called these days (physician assistants?). In rural areas, often pharmacists too.
National Rebirth. Without looking that sounds unapologetically fascist.
Just to help with a visual aid this is a photo of them campaigning. The clothing and hair choices of a couple and the gulag might help work out their view on life. Cosplay Adolf on one end and man with secret urges for men in SS uniforms on the other.
Why is vanilla making photos pointlessly small
I enjoy a good PB photo. Whether it’s someone’s dinner, view, wife, husband, husband and wife, Nordic dog, favourite Scottish train station, or Lakeland garden in springtime
They add variety, personality and gaiety to the site. They brighten up the place. Like photos in a magazine
Otherwise it’s an endless scroll of text
Bring back proper PB photos!
TSE is bonking/buying shoes. He’s earned a proper holiday. Leave him alone!
30% of Labour voters and 25% of Green voters and 45% of LDs would vote Tory in a seat where only Reform or the Conservatives could win on that new Yougov poll
Indeed. Reform sweeping East Anglia as per MRPs looks a stretch.
The number of left wing voters who would switch to the Conservatives, and the number of Conservative voters who would switch to Labour, under any circumstances, is miniscule. If Reform really do poll 29%, they will sweep East Anglia.
45% of LDs and 30% of Labour voters being willing to tactically vote Tory to beat Reform with Yougov today is not miniscule it is nearly half of LD voters and nearly a third of Labour voters!
If they really did cross the political divide, it would be big, but we know that in practice, they do not.
We've tested it in 206 local by elections since May 2025. Reform have won 73 (35%) on 27% of the vote. The Conservatives have won 24 (12%) on 17% of the vote. If there were any evidence for left wingers for the Conservatives, we would expect it to show up in real votes.
Apples and eggs though. Council by elections on 25% turnout and you're including all of them - how have each party fared in clear two way battles which is what this polling is about?
National Rebirth. Without looking that sounds unapologetically fascist.
I'm intrigued by the idea of an apologetically fascist party. "Look, I'm terribly sorry about this, but would you mind terribly if I were to ask you and your family to just go with my colleague here - gosh, yes, the one with the big gun. He's actually a lovely guy. I know, I hate to ask. The camp is a little bit make do and mend I'm afraid. That's on us, I am just so sorry. It's embarrassing actually. You can speak with my manager if it helps at all. I'm only here for the flags."
Am I alone in imagining that spoken in a very camp voice?
Cabaret and all that…
Rowan Atkinson's "Toby the Devil" skit sprung to my mind.
9,710 UK medical graduate applications to specialty training programmes.
6,913 International medical graduate applications to speciality training programmes.
In 2025:
12,316 UK medical graduate applications to specialty training programmes.
20,807 International medical graduate applications to speciality training programmes.
No wonder UK grads now finish university, do two years on the job training as foundation doctors and then end up unemployed.
Number of grad applications though increased for both UK and overseas applicants but the number of doctor and consultant training places hasn't. There are only 12,000 such training places a year and only 23% of overseas applicants are successful compared to 69% of UK applicants
Yes, but that means 5 000 successful IMG applications out of 12 807 places, so over a 3rd of ST places go to IMGs.
Yes but given the majority of applications are from overseas now that is a far lower success rate for ST places than UK applicants
That isn’t the point. The point is that we (i.e. the country) have paid a lot of money to train our best and brightest as doctors to leave them unemployed. That’s a ridiculous state of affairs.
So ban immigrants from overseas taking medical jobs then I presume, British doctor jobs for only British medical grads! Nige and Rupert would be proud of you!
Alternatively, give anyone graduating from a U.K. university absolute priority for a training place.
Which is effectively the same thing, given there are 12,316 UK medical grad applicants and only 12,000 training places available
Some applicants will apply for more than one training programme so not quite
'The government has put an offer to the British Medical Association (BMA) that would put in place emergency legislation for UK and Republic of Ireland medical graduates and doctors who have worked in the NHS for a significant period of time to be prioritised for specialty training and tackling bottlenecks through an overhaul of recruitment for medical training. Should the BMA accept this offer, the government will accelerate plans to prioritise these medics, addressing the current system that has led to soaring competition ratios - with current applicants set to benefit from the 2026 intake.
This should be held off and only implemented once the strikes have been called off and the union commits to no further action this negotiation cycle.
Some doctors are voting to strike due to pay, others are voting to strike due to training programme availability. This possibly vastly reduces the appetite to strike without having to agree anything.
It’s also the right thing to do and doesn’t cost anything.
Yep I think there's two camps here, one justifiably mad (Docs that can't get in such as your other half); the other... not so much. I reckon there's probably something like this going on with GPs too - GP partnerships who have completely overloaded their books and refuse to take on salaried GPs as they've got used to big old profit shares.
The GP partnership model is broken.
Starmer has stated that the traditional GP partnership model is "coming to an end of its life" and that the NHS needs more salaried GPs. The government is trialling local health centres with salaried GPs. This is a positive move that doesn't get as much attention as it should.
This all goes back to GPs in 1945 being opposed to the creation of the NHS, so the government let them stay out of the system and remain independent.
That is basically the same "polyclinic" concept Lord Darzi has been touting to Labour governments for the past 25 years. Oddly, it is not entirely new as the third original branch of the NHS, public health, operated clinics at least up to the 1970s. More recently, though, GP practices are consolidating, sometimes bought out by private equity. (Vets too!)
As with 1980s banks, the partners sitting down when the music stops and the sale is made can make a packet.
GP partnerships need to be undercut by rapid role out of local health centres with salaried GPs. Just do it.
GP partnerships these days employ lots of salaried GPs. It's not either-or. They also typically employ nurses and whatever the non-doctors are called these days (physician assistants?). In rural areas, often pharmacists too.
Yes I know. A transition from GP partnerships to local health centres who will also employ salaried GPs, nursing assistants, pharmacists, district nurses, care workers, physiotherapists, and mental health specialists, is what is required. Urgently. Leave the GP partnerships just with the partners and a much reduced number of patients. And Private Equity can nurse their losses.
National Rebirth. Without looking that sounds unapologetically fascist.
Just to help with a visual aid this is a photo of them campaigning. The clothing and hair choices of a couple and the gulag might help work out their view on life. Cosplay Adolf on one end and man with secret urges for men in SS uniforms on the other.
Why is vanilla making photos pointlessly small
I enjoy a good PB photo. Whether it’s someone’s dinner, view, wife, husband, husband and wife, Nordic dog, favourite Scottish train station, or Lakeland garden in springtime
They add variety, personality and gaiety to the site. They brighten up the place. Like photos in a magazine
Otherwise it’s an endless scroll of text
Bring back proper PB photos!
TSE is bonking/buying shoes. He’s earned a proper holiday. Leave him alone!
What TSE chooses to do with his shoes is between him and his conscience.
A 1% then / 2% wealth tax on over ten million / one billion will be an interesting exercise. I’d do it just to watch.
Does this catch Mr Trump? I do hope so. He'll be furious.
Since he is still trying to delay / Appeal his compensation to E Jean Carroll, is the Judge supervising the Trump organisation's books still in place? But IIRC that was linked to the fraud case.
1% on 10 million here might well catch both the Centrist Dads. Rory has his 100 acre estate outside Edinburgh (shared ownership with family) which costs nearly £20k to rent for a week & a big place in central London - if I have this right. And Alistair has 20+ years returns on his diary payments ("my pension") and a basically £2-3m house round the the corner from where I used to be in South Hampstead (shared with the missus). Plus the rest for both of them.
30% of Labour voters and 25% of Green voters and 45% of LDs would vote Tory in a seat where only Reform or the Conservatives could win on that new Yougov poll
Indeed. Reform sweeping East Anglia as per MRPs looks a stretch.
The number of left wing voters who would switch to the Conservatives, and the number of Conservative voters who would switch to Labour, under any circumstances, is miniscule. If Reform really do poll 29%, they will sweep East Anglia.
45% of LDs and 30% of Labour voters being willing to tactically vote Tory to beat Reform with Yougov today is not miniscule it is nearly half of LD voters and nearly a third of Labour voters!
If they really did cross the political divide, it would be big, but we know that in practice, they do not.
We've tested it in 206 local by elections since May 2025. Reform have won 73 (35%) on 27% of the vote. The Conservatives have won 24 (12%) on 17% of the vote. If there were any evidence for left wingers for the Conservatives, we would expect it to show up in real votes.
Apples and eggs though. Council by elections on 25% turnout and you're including all of them - how have each party fared in clear two way battles which is what this polling is about?
I think it's also very difficult for voters to know if they are in a genuinely marginal seat or not. The last result is now a poor guide, and the parties all say "It's a two horse race - only Party A can beat Party B, and voting for C is a wasted vote." Also, the on-line sites which suggest vote swapping etc are even more biased than the political parties. So, even if a voter might vote tactically, it's very difficult to persuade them that it might be worth their while.
Shame that most of their voters underpin NHS useage...
The take-down of Reform during an election camapign could be spectacular to behold. Farage of course will do what he usually does when the going gets tough - run away.
buying the rights to build tested kit and building the factories to make them here under licence.
This is the exact model used for Ajax. When you build a new factory it's largely staffed by people with zero experience in building the product.
Was Ajax a tried and tested vehicle which was simply being replicated in UK factories?
No. The hulls and numerous bits were built by General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS) in a factory in Spain. They were then sent to a factory in Merthyr Tydfil in Wales to fit them together. But when they got to Wales the Welsh found out that:
The hulls were warped
The fit and finish was rubbish
After they had assembled the bits, the bloody thing didn't work
Opinions are divided on who is to blame for this. It might be the MOD for changing their minds every five minutes. It might be GDLS for making several large piles of shit. It might be reality for ensuring that a 2000s design based on a need originated in the 1980s is no longer fit for purpose. My guess is all three.
Ajax is too fat to recon, too creaky to fight, too thirsty to keep up with the tank tanks, falls apart if you look at it wrong and if you get your leg trapped in the door it'll amputate it. Plus it leaks. It's awful.
We know what the problems are. It's too heavy for its suspension, the gun is too big for the turret, and GDLS can't build tank good. The cure is i) new suspension (see the M10 Booker for an example), ii) a slightly smaller gun, and iii) sue them to death. But nobody is doing this. There's lots of meetings, mind.
30% of Labour voters and 25% of Green voters and 45% of LDs would vote Tory in a seat where only Reform or the Conservatives could win on that new Yougov poll
Indeed. Reform sweeping East Anglia as per MRPs looks a stretch.
The number of left wing voters who would switch to the Conservatives, and the number of Conservative voters who would switch to Labour, under any circumstances, is miniscule. If Reform really do poll 29%, they will sweep East Anglia.
45% of LDs and 30% of Labour voters being willing to tactically vote Tory to beat Reform with Yougov today is not miniscule it is nearly half of LD voters and nearly a third of Labour voters!
If they really did cross the political divide, it would be big, but we know that in practice, they do not.
We've tested it in 206 local by elections since May 2025. Reform have won 73 (35%) on 27% of the vote. The Conservatives have won 24 (12%) on 17% of the vote. If there were any evidence for left wingers for the Conservatives, we would expect it to show up in real votes.
Apples and eggs though. Council by elections on 25% turnout and you're including all of them - how have each party fared in clear two way battles which is what this polling is about?
I think it's also very difficult for voters to know if they are in a genuinely marginal seat or not. The last result is now a poor guide, and the parties all say "It's a two horse race - only Party A can beat Party B, and voting for C is a wasted vote." Also, the on-line sites which suggest vote swapping etc are even more biased than the political parties. So, even if a voter might vote tactically, it's very difficult to persuade them that it might be worth their while.
Thats a good point. I mean if we take South Norfolk as an example - Labour gain in 2024 but 100% will be Ref vs Con this time
30% of Labour voters and 25% of Green voters and 45% of LDs would vote Tory in a seat where only Reform or the Conservatives could win on that new Yougov poll
Indeed. Reform sweeping East Anglia as per MRPs looks a stretch.
The number of left wing voters who would switch to the Conservatives, and the number of Conservative voters who would switch to Labour, under any circumstances, is miniscule. If Reform really do poll 29%, they will sweep East Anglia.
45% of LDs and 30% of Labour voters being willing to tactically vote Tory to beat Reform with Yougov today is not miniscule it is nearly half of LD voters and nearly a third of Labour voters!
If they really did cross the political divide, it would be big, but we know that in practice, they do not.
We've tested it in 206 local by elections since May 2025. Reform have won 73 (35%) on 27% of the vote. The Conservatives have won 24 (12%) on 17% of the vote. If there were any evidence for left wingers for the Conservatives, we would expect it to show up in real votes.
Apples and eggs though. Council by elections on 25% turnout and you're including all of them - how have each party fared in clear two way battles which is what this polling is about?
I think it's also very difficult for voters to know if they are in a genuinely marginal seat or not. The last result is now a poor guide, and the parties all say "It's a two horse race - only Party A can beat Party B, and voting for C is a wasted vote." Also, the on-line sites which suggest vote swapping etc are even more biased than the political parties. So, even if a voter might vote tactically, it's very difficult to persuade them that it might be worth their while.
Thats a good point. I mean if we take South Norfolk as an example - Labour gain in 2024 but 100% will be Ref vs Con this time
I'd rather lose a seat to Reform than to the Tories. Flash in the pan versus long-term opponents.
30% of Labour voters and 25% of Green voters and 45% of LDs would vote Tory in a seat where only Reform or the Conservatives could win on that new Yougov poll
Indeed. Reform sweeping East Anglia as per MRPs looks a stretch.
The number of left wing voters who would switch to the Conservatives, and the number of Conservative voters who would switch to Labour, under any circumstances, is miniscule. If Reform really do poll 29%, they will sweep East Anglia.
45% of LDs and 30% of Labour voters being willing to tactically vote Tory to beat Reform with Yougov today is not miniscule it is nearly half of LD voters and nearly a third of Labour voters!
If they really did cross the political divide, it would be big, but we know that in practice, they do not.
We've tested it in 206 local by elections since May 2025. Reform have won 73 (35%) on 27% of the vote. The Conservatives have won 24 (12%) on 17% of the vote. If there were any evidence for left wingers for the Conservatives, we would expect it to show up in real votes.
Some of my comrades have projected that the Con vote held up in the Worth Valley by-election last week due to Labourites voting for them to keep Reform out. I am less convinced by that argument.
I thought young people were largely in favour of mass inward migration 🤷♂️
Why should skilled workers from overseas not apply for these roles ?
I’m not sure striking all the time helps their cause.
Not a good use of taxpayers money is it
Taz is suggesting we spend thousands on training young british doctors up, refuse to pay them a market wage at the end, export them to Australia, and then import lots of foreign doctors to take their place (who leave anyway after a few years after they have picked the requisite experience).
A microcosm UK's economic and immigration policy. Boomernomics.
Feck all to do with boomers, incompetent governments and NHS management
Shame that most of their voters underpin NHS useage...
The take-down of Reform during an election camapign could be spectacular to behold. Farage of course will do what he usually does when the going gets tough - run away.
One of the UK's greatest problems is the sanctity of the NHS. No-one around the world has the same health system as the UK yet many other countries have better health outcomes. We are profoundly incurious as to why this is in the main. Despite their opponents continually saying the Tories intend to sell off the NHS, in my lifetime, during 1979-1990 and then 2010 to 2024 they signally failed to do so.
What patients want is high quality healthcare for all. This needs paying for. The current NHS model is not the only model available. We also need to consider the impacts of the failure of social care on the ability of secondary healthcare to do its job. Its insane to have hospital beds occupied by people who ought to have been discharged, whether to local cottage hospital care or their homes, with adequate care provided.
And frankly we need to challenge the belief that you are entitled to pass on your wealth (e.g. from sale of your home etc) to your children. If you need care, it needs paying for. Why should your assets be protected?
Until we can get the public to grasp these points we will continue tinkering around the edges and I believe our outcomes will continue to worsen in comparison to our continental neighbours.
It could be argued that the policy of making sure no more than 0.5% of the population of any constituency are asylum seekers - and thus, making sure everyone has asylum seekers and asylum seeker hotels close to them - might be one of the things which has made ill-feeling towards migrants more widespread in this country. So it might have the opposite effect.
Kaare Dybvad Bek, Denmark’s employment minister who is part of the leading centre-left Social Democratic Party, told an event in Westminster on Monday that he found it “curious” that parts of southern England lacked diversity while the north of England was very diverse.
National Rebirth. Without looking that sounds unapologetically fascist.
I'm intrigued by the idea of an apologetically fascist party. "Look, I'm terribly sorry about this, but would you mind terribly if I were to ask you and your family to just go with my colleague here - gosh, yes, the one with the big gun. He's actually a lovely guy. I know, I hate to ask. The camp is a little bit make do and mend I'm afraid. That's on us, I am just so sorry. It's embarrassing actually. You can speak with my manager if it helps at all. I'm only here for the flags."
You jest amusingly, but I suggest apologetic fascism is alive and well. We see it among those who say they've moved to the hard right because the Left forced them to with all their "wokery". They try to assert that they've been forced into extreme views.
That's not apologetic, though. If anything, it's the opposite- I don't need to apologise for going fascist, becuase it's not my fault. You made me do it.
I would have thought that unapologetic fascism is someome just saying they think fascism is the best option. Giving some external reason for their support seems like a degree of apology to me.
In PB terms fascism is anyone centrists don’t agree with.
I think we do better than that. Getting the language wrong invites the kind of circumlocution we see on GBNews.
A suggestion that they are far right immediately becomes "are they calling us Nazis?" (which "they" very rarely are), followed by a 5 minute diversion repeating the made up accusation.
The group I mentioned - National Rebirth Party - is well towards Neo-Nazi. The chap who runs it, Alan Yerbury, has gone through multiple splinters of Patriotic Alternative, tried to set up a faux-military, and even looks spookily like Pantomime Adolf in brown trousers.
Shame that most of their voters underpin NHS useage...
The take-down of Reform during an election camapign could be spectacular to behold. Farage of course will do what he usually does when the going gets tough - run away.
One of the UK's greatest problems is the sanctity of the NHS. No-one around the world has the same health system as the UK yet many other countries have better health outcomes. We are profoundly incurious as to why this is in the main. Despite their opponents continually saying the Tories intend to sell off the NHS, in my lifetime, during 1979-1990 and then 2010 to 2024 they signally failed to do so.
What patients want is high quality healthcare for all. This needs paying for. The current NHS model is not the only model available. We also need to consider the impacts of the failure of social care on the ability of secondary healthcare to do its job. Its insane to have hospital beds occupied by people who ought to have been discharged, whether to local cottage hospital care or their homes, with adequate care provided.
And frankly we need to challenge the belief that you are entitled to pass on your wealth (e.g. from sale of your home etc) to your children. If you need care, it needs paying for. Why should your assets be protected?
Until we can get the public to grasp these points we will continue tinkering around the edges and I believe our outcomes will continue to worsen in comparison to our continental neighbours.
Correct that we get the health outcomes we pay for, the method of payment is unrelated to the health outcomes. Changing to a part payment or insurance based system which will have higher admin costs will not result in more money being spent on treatment.
30% of Labour voters and 25% of Green voters and 45% of LDs would vote Tory in a seat where only Reform or the Conservatives could win on that new Yougov poll
Indeed. Reform sweeping East Anglia as per MRPs looks a stretch.
The number of left wing voters who would switch to the Conservatives, and the number of Conservative voters who would switch to Labour, under any circumstances, is miniscule. If Reform really do poll 29%, they will sweep East Anglia.
45% of LDs and 30% of Labour voters being willing to tactically vote Tory to beat Reform with Yougov today is not miniscule it is nearly half of LD voters and nearly a third of Labour voters!
If they really did cross the political divide, it would be big, but we know that in practice, they do not.
We've tested it in 206 local by elections since May 2025. Reform have won 73 (35%) on 27% of the vote. The Conservatives have won 24 (12%) on 17% of the vote. If there were any evidence for left wingers for the Conservatives, we would expect it to show up in real votes.
The Tories won the Worth by election only last week mainly due to massive tactical voting from Labour voters for the Tories to beat Reform.
Tory candidates need to use LD style barcharts to show in Tory held seats only they can beat Reform, it may be the only way for the party to not go extinct at the next general election and end up merged with Reform as long as we keep FPTP
The Labour government in a nutshell. Unable to evict foreigners who have landed illegally in the UK, determined to evict British subjects who have returned to their old homes.
Shame that most of their voters underpin NHS useage...
The take-down of Reform during an election camapign could be spectacular to behold. Farage of course will do what he usually does when the going gets tough - run away.
One of the UK's greatest problems is the sanctity of the NHS. No-one around the world has the same health system as the UK yet many other countries have better health outcomes. We are profoundly incurious as to why this is in the main. Despite their opponents continually saying the Tories intend to sell off the NHS, in my lifetime, during 1979-1990 and then 2010 to 2024 they signally failed to do so.
What patients want is high quality healthcare for all. This needs paying for. The current NHS model is not the only model available. We also need to consider the impacts of the failure of social care on the ability of secondary healthcare to do its job. Its insane to have hospital beds occupied by people who ought to have been discharged, whether to local cottage hospital care or their homes, with adequate care provided.
And frankly we need to challenge the belief that you are entitled to pass on your wealth (e.g. from sale of your home etc) to your children. If you need care, it needs paying for. Why should your assets be protected?
Until we can get the public to grasp these points we will continue tinkering around the edges and I believe our outcomes will continue to worsen in comparison to our continental neighbours.
Correct that we get the health outcomes we pay for, the method of payment is unrelated to the health outcomes. Changing to a part payment or insurance based system which will have higher admin costs will not result in more money being spent on treatment.
I disagree. The NHS is pretty efficient - lots of studies show this. However we also need to spend more and getting that through direct taxation is almost impossible (to at least put in a manifesto and win). You can go on QT and say we should put 2 p on income tax to go direct to the NHS and the audience will love you. In the polling booth they will not put a cross by your name.
We already have a strong private healthcare system in the UK. We have lots of high earners. We are well used to insurance in most walks of life. Time to get real.
It appears that Matt Goodwin's campaign manager has expressed some interesting opinions on Jews. Would certainly fit with the pattern we've seen on the right in the US. Who knows, maybe liberals will now start to care about antisemitism?
Shame that most of their voters underpin NHS useage...
The take-down of Reform during an election camapign could be spectacular to behold. Farage of course will do what he usually does when the going gets tough - run away.
One of the UK's greatest problems is the sanctity of the NHS. No-one around the world has the same health system as the UK yet many other countries have better health outcomes. We are profoundly incurious as to why this is in the main. Despite their opponents continually saying the Tories intend to sell off the NHS, in my lifetime, during 1979-1990 and then 2010 to 2024 they signally failed to do so.
What patients want is high quality healthcare for all. This needs paying for. The current NHS model is not the only model available. We also need to consider the impacts of the failure of social care on the ability of secondary healthcare to do its job. Its insane to have hospital beds occupied by people who ought to have been discharged, whether to local cottage hospital care or their homes, with adequate care provided.
And frankly we need to challenge the belief that you are entitled to pass on your wealth (e.g. from sale of your home etc) to your children. If you need care, it needs paying for. Why should your assets be protected?
Until we can get the public to grasp these points we will continue tinkering around the edges and I believe our outcomes will continue to worsen in comparison to our continental neighbours.
I agree that the challenge, around the world, is ageing populations and we need to think about how we pay for that challenge. I also agree that problems with social care are a big source of challenges the NHS faces. However, the problem is not the supposed sanctity of the NHS or the basic NHS model.
buying the rights to build tested kit and building the factories to make them here under licence.
This is the exact model used for Ajax. When you build a new factory it's largely staffed by people with zero experience in building the product.
Was Ajax a tried and tested vehicle which was simply being replicated in UK factories?
Yes. The ASCOD upon which it was based has been in service since 2002. The Amy and MoD then fucked around with the design a lot and the web footed dole moles employed at the repurposed forklift factory in Merthyr were very poorly equipped to respond to the challenges posed by this fucking around. The UK should have just bought standard ones off the line in Spain and then sold Spain something we make here in return.
The entire Ajax project was started with the philosophy of "Go light. Go early. Go home." That is, getting armoured vehicles into a conflict quickly because it's easy to transport was the key to a swift and decisive outcome. This was predicated on ground breaking and world beating lightweight British armour technology that turned out not to exist.
30% of Labour voters and 25% of Green voters and 45% of LDs would vote Tory in a seat where only Reform or the Conservatives could win on that new Yougov poll
Indeed. Reform sweeping East Anglia as per MRPs looks a stretch.
The number of left wing voters who would switch to the Conservatives, and the number of Conservative voters who would switch to Labour, under any circumstances, is miniscule. If Reform really do poll 29%, they will sweep East Anglia.
45% of LDs and 30% of Labour voters being willing to tactically vote Tory to beat Reform with Yougov today is not miniscule it is nearly half of LD voters and nearly a third of Labour voters!
If they really did cross the political divide, it would be big, but we know that in practice, they do not.
We've tested it in 206 local by elections since May 2025. Reform have won 73 (35%) on 27% of the vote. The Conservatives have won 24 (12%) on 17% of the vote. If there were any evidence for left wingers for the Conservatives, we would expect it to show up in real votes.
The Tories won the Worth by election only last week mainly due to massive tactical voting from Labour voters for the Tories to beat Reform.
Tory candidates need to use LD style barcharts to show in Tory held seats only they can beat Reform, it may be the only way for the party to not go extinct at the next general election and end up merged with Reform as long as we keep FPTP
Well, that's how you have to play the game under FPTP.
Looking at other prospective tactical voting scenarios, no surprise to see large majorities of Labour and Green voters prepared to back the LDs in a fight with the Conservatives while only 45% of Reform voters would vote Conservative in such a scenario.
This suggests the LDs are in a good position in their heartlands and marginals to squeeze more tactical votes against the Conservatives.
30% of Labour voters and 25% of Green voters and 45% of LDs would vote Tory in a seat where only Reform or the Conservatives could win on that new Yougov poll
Indeed. Reform sweeping East Anglia as per MRPs looks a stretch.
The number of left wing voters who would switch to the Conservatives, and the number of Conservative voters who would switch to Labour, under any circumstances, is miniscule. If Reform really do poll 29%, they will sweep East Anglia.
45% of LDs and 30% of Labour voters being willing to tactically vote Tory to beat Reform with Yougov today is not miniscule it is nearly half of LD voters and nearly a third of Labour voters!
If they really did cross the political divide, it would be big, but we know that in practice, they do not.
We've tested it in 206 local by elections since May 2025. Reform have won 73 (35%) on 27% of the vote. The Conservatives have won 24 (12%) on 17% of the vote. If there were any evidence for left wingers for the Conservatives, we would expect it to show up in real votes.
The Tories won the Worth by election only last week mainly due to massive tactical voting from Labour voters for the Tories to beat Reform.
Tory candidates need to use LD style barcharts to show in Tory held seats only they can beat Reform, it may be the only way for the party to not go extinct at the next general election and end up merged with Reform as long as we keep FPTP
Shame that most of their voters underpin NHS useage...
The take-down of Reform during an election camapign could be spectacular to behold. Farage of course will do what he usually does when the going gets tough - run away.
One of the UK's greatest problems is the sanctity of the NHS. No-one around the world has the same health system as the UK yet many other countries have better health outcomes. We are profoundly incurious as to why this is in the main. Despite their opponents continually saying the Tories intend to sell off the NHS, in my lifetime, during 1979-1990 and then 2010 to 2024 they signally failed to do so.
What patients want is high quality healthcare for all. This needs paying for. The current NHS model is not the only model available. We also need to consider the impacts of the failure of social care on the ability of secondary healthcare to do its job. Its insane to have hospital beds occupied by people who ought to have been discharged, whether to local cottage hospital care or their homes, with adequate care provided.
And frankly we need to challenge the belief that you are entitled to pass on your wealth (e.g. from sale of your home etc) to your children. If you need care, it needs paying for. Why should your assets be protected?
Until we can get the public to grasp these points we will continue tinkering around the edges and I believe our outcomes will continue to worsen in comparison to our continental neighbours.
I agree that the challenge, around the world, is ageing populations and we need to think about how we pay for that challenge. I also agree that problems with social care are a big source of challenges the NHS faces. However, the problem is not the supposed sanctity of the NHS or the basic NHS model.
That very piece shows clear differences in the countries you cite. I am not suggesting that the NHS is a model radically different from everywhere else, far from it. But when people propose changes the public reacts in horror.
30% of Labour voters and 25% of Green voters and 45% of LDs would vote Tory in a seat where only Reform or the Conservatives could win on that new Yougov poll
Indeed. Reform sweeping East Anglia as per MRPs looks a stretch.
The number of left wing voters who would switch to the Conservatives, and the number of Conservative voters who would switch to Labour, under any circumstances, is miniscule. If Reform really do poll 29%, they will sweep East Anglia.
45% of LDs and 30% of Labour voters being willing to tactically vote Tory to beat Reform with Yougov today is not miniscule it is nearly half of LD voters and nearly a third of Labour voters!
If they really did cross the political divide, it would be big, but we know that in practice, they do not.
We've tested it in 206 local by elections since May 2025. Reform have won 73 (35%) on 27% of the vote. The Conservatives have won 24 (12%) on 17% of the vote. If there were any evidence for left wingers for the Conservatives, we would expect it to show up in real votes.
The Tories won the Worth by election only last week mainly due to massive tactical voting from Labour voters for the Tories to beat Reform.
Tory candidates need to use LD style barcharts to show in Tory held seats only they can beat Reform, it may be the only way for the party to not go extinct at the next general election and end up merged with Reform as long as we keep FPTP
Shame that most of their voters underpin NHS useage...
The take-down of Reform during an election camapign could be spectacular to behold. Farage of course will do what he usually does when the going gets tough - run away.
One of the UK's greatest problems is the sanctity of the NHS. No-one around the world has the same health system as the UK yet many other countries have better health outcomes. We are profoundly incurious as to why this is in the main. Despite their opponents continually saying the Tories intend to sell off the NHS, in my lifetime, during 1979-1990 and then 2010 to 2024 they signally failed to do so.
What patients want is high quality healthcare for all. This needs paying for. The current NHS model is not the only model available. We also need to consider the impacts of the failure of social care on the ability of secondary healthcare to do its job. Its insane to have hospital beds occupied by people who ought to have been discharged, whether to local cottage hospital care or their homes, with adequate care provided.
And frankly we need to challenge the belief that you are entitled to pass on your wealth (e.g. from sale of your home etc) to your children. If you need care, it needs paying for. Why should your assets be protected?
Until we can get the public to grasp these points we will continue tinkering around the edges and I believe our outcomes will continue to worsen in comparison to our continental neighbours.
I agree that the challenge, around the world, is ageing populations and we need to think about how we pay for that challenge. I also agree that problems with social care are a big source of challenges the NHS faces. However, the problem is not the supposed sanctity of the NHS or the basic NHS model.
That very piece shows clear differences in the countries you cite. I am not suggesting that the NHS is a model radically different from everywhere else, far from it. But when people propose changes the public reacts in horror.
There are two main issues:
1. NHS-as-a-religion. The idea that nothing can ever be charged for, and that waiting lists are better than taking money from customers.
2. The idea that healthcare is a binary between the NHS model and the American model, as opposed to the reality that those two countries are on the extremes and almost everyone else is somewhere in the middle.
There should probably be a Royal Commission to investigate what works and what doesn’t in the rest of the world, and then look to replicate the positive changes into the UK system with cross-party support.
Shame that most of their voters underpin NHS useage...
The take-down of Reform during an election camapign could be spectacular to behold. Farage of course will do what he usually does when the going gets tough - run away.
One of the UK's greatest problems is the sanctity of the NHS. No-one around the world has the same health system as the UK yet many other countries have better health outcomes. We are profoundly incurious as to why this is in the main. Despite their opponents continually saying the Tories intend to sell off the NHS, in my lifetime, during 1979-1990 and then 2010 to 2024 they signally failed to do so.
What patients want is high quality healthcare for all. This needs paying for. The current NHS model is not the only model available. We also need to consider the impacts of the failure of social care on the ability of secondary healthcare to do its job. Its insane to have hospital beds occupied by people who ought to have been discharged, whether to local cottage hospital care or their homes, with adequate care provided.
And frankly we need to challenge the belief that you are entitled to pass on your wealth (e.g. from sale of your home etc) to your children. If you need care, it needs paying for. Why should your assets be protected?
Until we can get the public to grasp these points we will continue tinkering around the edges and I believe our outcomes will continue to worsen in comparison to our continental neighbours.
Correct that we get the health outcomes we pay for, the method of payment is unrelated to the health outcomes. Changing to a part payment or insurance based system which will have higher admin costs will not result in more money being spent on treatment.
I disagree. The NHS is pretty efficient - lots of studies show this. However we also need to spend more and getting that through direct taxation is almost impossible (to at least put in a manifesto and win). You can go on QT and say we should put 2 p on income tax to go direct to the NHS and the audience will love you. In the polling booth they will not put a cross by your name.
We already have a strong private healthcare system in the UK. We have lots of high earners. We are well used to insurance in most walks of life. Time to get real.
Shame that most of their voters underpin NHS useage...
The take-down of Reform during an election camapign could be spectacular to behold. Farage of course will do what he usually does when the going gets tough - run away.
One of the UK's greatest problems is the sanctity of the NHS. No-one around the world has the same health system as the UK yet many other countries have better health outcomes. We are profoundly incurious as to why this is in the main. Despite their opponents continually saying the Tories intend to sell off the NHS, in my lifetime, during 1979-1990 and then 2010 to 2024 they signally failed to do so.
What patients want is high quality healthcare for all. This needs paying for. The current NHS model is not the only model available. We also need to consider the impacts of the failure of social care on the ability of secondary healthcare to do its job. Its insane to have hospital beds occupied by people who ought to have been discharged, whether to local cottage hospital care or their homes, with adequate care provided.
And frankly we need to challenge the belief that you are entitled to pass on your wealth (e.g. from sale of your home etc) to your children. If you need care, it needs paying for. Why should your assets be protected?
Until we can get the public to grasp these points we will continue tinkering around the edges and I believe our outcomes will continue to worsen in comparison to our continental neighbours.
Correct that we get the health outcomes we pay for, the method of payment is unrelated to the health outcomes. Changing to a part payment or insurance based system which will have higher admin costs will not result in more money being spent on treatment.
I disagree. The NHS is pretty efficient - lots of studies show this. However we also need to spend more and getting that through direct taxation is almost impossible (to at least put in a manifesto and win). You can go on QT and say we should put 2 p on income tax to go direct to the NHS and the audience will love you. In the polling booth they will not put a cross by your name.
We already have a strong private healthcare system in the UK. We have lots of high earners. We are well used to insurance in most walks of life. Time to get real.
Shame that most of their voters underpin NHS useage...
The take-down of Reform during an election camapign could be spectacular to behold. Farage of course will do what he usually does when the going gets tough - run away.
One of the UK's greatest problems is the sanctity of the NHS. No-one around the world has the same health system as the UK yet many other countries have better health outcomes. We are profoundly incurious as to why this is in the main. Despite their opponents continually saying the Tories intend to sell off the NHS, in my lifetime, during 1979-1990 and then 2010 to 2024 they signally failed to do so.
What patients want is high quality healthcare for all. This needs paying for. The current NHS model is not the only model available. We also need to consider the impacts of the failure of social care on the ability of secondary healthcare to do its job. Its insane to have hospital beds occupied by people who ought to have been discharged, whether to local cottage hospital care or their homes, with adequate care provided.
And frankly we need to challenge the belief that you are entitled to pass on your wealth (e.g. from sale of your home etc) to your children. If you need care, it needs paying for. Why should your assets be protected?
Until we can get the public to grasp these points we will continue tinkering around the edges and I believe our outcomes will continue to worsen in comparison to our continental neighbours.
Correct that we get the health outcomes we pay for, the method of payment is unrelated to the health outcomes. Changing to a part payment or insurance based system which will have higher admin costs will not result in more money being spent on treatment.
I disagree. The NHS is pretty efficient - lots of studies show this. However we also need to spend more and getting that through direct taxation is almost impossible (to at least put in a manifesto and win). You can go on QT and say we should put 2 p on income tax to go direct to the NHS and the audience will love you. In the polling booth they will not put a cross by your name.
We already have a strong private healthcare system in the UK. We have lots of high earners. We are well used to insurance in most walks of life. Time to get real.
You may well be correct that it is more politically possible to raise additional funding via an insurance based system, Reform voters seem.to like the idea, but the likelihood of that increasing the money spent on treatment or resulting in better overall health outcomes is zero.
So the Reform policy seems to be if you’re not a British national , have worked for years here , paid your taxes and then suddenly fall ill or lose your job you get zero benefits. If you’re a Brit whose done bugger all and sponged off the state for years then you’re fine , keep claiming benefits .
Funnily the media seem to have ignored their major u turn on the child benefit cap . And seeing as this impacts one of their core voter demographics you’d think it would get some attention .
So the Reform policy seems to be if you’re not a British national , have worked for years here , paid your taxes and then suddenly fall ill or lose your job you get zero benefits. If you’re a Brit whose done bugger all and sponged off the state for years then you’re fine , keep claiming benefits .
Funnily the media seem to have ignored their major u turn on the child benefit cap . And seeing as this impacts one of their core voter demographics you’d think it would get some attention .
No, to be fair to Reform they have said only British nationals in work will be exempt from the 2 child benefit cap
30% of Labour voters and 25% of Green voters and 45% of LDs would vote Tory in a seat where only Reform or the Conservatives could win on that new Yougov poll
Indeed. Reform sweeping East Anglia as per MRPs looks a stretch.
The number of left wing voters who would switch to the Conservatives, and the number of Conservative voters who would switch to Labour, under any circumstances, is miniscule. If Reform really do poll 29%, they will sweep East Anglia.
45% of LDs and 30% of Labour voters being willing to tactically vote Tory to beat Reform with Yougov today is not miniscule it is nearly half of LD voters and nearly a third of Labour voters!
If they really did cross the political divide, it would be big, but we know that in practice, they do not.
We've tested it in 206 local by elections since May 2025. Reform have won 73 (35%) on 27% of the vote. The Conservatives have won 24 (12%) on 17% of the vote. If there were any evidence for left wingers for the Conservatives, we would expect it to show up in real votes.
The Tories won the Worth by election only last week mainly due to massive tactical voting from Labour voters for the Tories to beat Reform.
Tory candidates need to use LD style barcharts to show in Tory held seats only they can beat Reform, it may be the only way for the party to not go extinct at the next general election and end up merged with Reform as long as we keep FPTP
Well, that's how you have to play the game under FPTP.
Looking at other prospective tactical voting scenarios, no surprise to see large majorities of Labour and Green voters prepared to back the LDs in a fight with the Conservatives while only 45% of Reform voters would vote Conservative in such a scenario.
This suggests the LDs are in a good position in their heartlands and marginals to squeeze more tactical votes against the Conservatives.
I think there's a lot of truth in that, particularly as the Lib Dems are well trained in the dark arts of squeezing third parties - Labour and the Conservatives have, in the past, relied on national swing to bail them out, with a few token gestures in some places that a vote for the Liberals is a wasted vote etc. In STV terms, the Lib Dems (and the Greens) are "transfer friendly" - voters may despise them, but they will give them a chance if necessary. Other parties are not in such a luxurious position.
Furthermore, the Lib Dems have spent the last two years firming up their bases - what they have, they are working hard to hold. Anecdotally, it now seems (from Michael Crick's posts on X) that the majority of candidates being selected for the next General Election are Lib Dems. They may not be making much of a splash in the media, but there's a lot of evidence of rudimentary competence developing behind the scenes.
30% of Labour voters and 25% of Green voters and 45% of LDs would vote Tory in a seat where only Reform or the Conservatives could win on that new Yougov poll
Indeed. Reform sweeping East Anglia as per MRPs looks a stretch.
The number of left wing voters who would switch to the Conservatives, and the number of Conservative voters who would switch to Labour, under any circumstances, is miniscule. If Reform really do poll 29%, they will sweep East Anglia.
45% of LDs and 30% of Labour voters being willing to tactically vote Tory to beat Reform with Yougov today is not miniscule it is nearly half of LD voters and nearly a third of Labour voters!
If they really did cross the political divide, it would be big, but we know that in practice, they do not.
We've tested it in 206 local by elections since May 2025. Reform have won 73 (35%) on 27% of the vote. The Conservatives have won 24 (12%) on 17% of the vote. If there were any evidence for left wingers for the Conservatives, we would expect it to show up in real votes.
The Tories won the Worth by election only last week mainly due to massive tactical voting from Labour voters for the Tories to beat Reform.
Tory candidates need to use LD style barcharts to show in Tory held seats only they can beat Reform, it may be the only way for the party to not go extinct at the next general election and end up merged with Reform as long as we keep FPTP
Well, that's how you have to play the game under FPTP.
Looking at other prospective tactical voting scenarios, no surprise to see large majorities of Labour and Green voters prepared to back the LDs in a fight with the Conservatives while only 45% of Reform voters would vote Conservative in such a scenario.
This suggests the LDs are in a good position in their heartlands and marginals to squeeze more tactical votes against the Conservatives.
In terms of LD vs Con the key Q is if these are new tacticsl voters or are they just/mainly the tactical GTTO voters from 2024 repeating. And then what is the Tory tactical vote like versus 2024. On the face of it looks like it will be tough to crack far into the LD held seats (if at all) without seeing a reduction in the LD base vote towards 10% or the Tories getting beyond, say, 23% (thats assuming they are continuing to lose some additional votes in the North)
30% of Labour voters and 25% of Green voters and 45% of LDs would vote Tory in a seat where only Reform or the Conservatives could win on that new Yougov poll
Indeed. Reform sweeping East Anglia as per MRPs looks a stretch.
The number of left wing voters who would switch to the Conservatives, and the number of Conservative voters who would switch to Labour, under any circumstances, is miniscule. If Reform really do poll 29%, they will sweep East Anglia.
45% of LDs and 30% of Labour voters being willing to tactically vote Tory to beat Reform with Yougov today is not miniscule it is nearly half of LD voters and nearly a third of Labour voters!
If they really did cross the political divide, it would be big, but we know that in practice, they do not.
We've tested it in 206 local by elections since May 2025. Reform have won 73 (35%) on 27% of the vote. The Conservatives have won 24 (12%) on 17% of the vote. If there were any evidence for left wingers for the Conservatives, we would expect it to show up in real votes.
The Tories won the Worth by election only last week mainly due to massive tactical voting from Labour voters for the Tories to beat Reform.
Tory candidates need to use LD style barcharts to show in Tory held seats only they can beat Reform, it may be the only way for the party to not go extinct at the next general election and end up merged with Reform as long as we keep FPTP
Well, that's how you have to play the game under FPTP.
Looking at other prospective tactical voting scenarios, no surprise to see large majorities of Labour and Green voters prepared to back the LDs in a fight with the Conservatives while only 45% of Reform voters would vote Conservative in such a scenario.
This suggests the LDs are in a good position in their heartlands and marginals to squeeze more tactical votes against the Conservatives.
Though at least half of even LD seats will see LD MPs main opponents as Reform now not the Tories based on the latest Nowcast, certainly outside of Surrey, Bucks and Hampshire. https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
Beating the Tories is now old news for Labour and the LDs, in most of their seats Labour and LD MPs main opponents will be Reform not the Tories on current polling.
Since they're in charge of the design and manufacture, why can't they get the size right? Genuinely curious.
They have differing styles for loafers, formal shoes, trainers.
Is to do with the width and sole.
Sure, but why not try to make sure that, for each person, it's most likely size X of each shoe will fit them? Of course it won't be wholly possible, but explicit advice for everyone to "size down" one size sounds like it could be solved by a simple relabelling... Which leads to the question - are sizes 05 to 11 their usual, or are their usual sizes 06 to 12? Curiouser and curiouser...
So the Reform policy seems to be if you’re not a British national , have worked for years here , paid your taxes and then suddenly fall ill or lose your job you get zero benefits. If you’re a Brit whose done bugger all and sponged off the state for years then you’re fine , keep claiming benefits .
Funnily the media seem to have ignored their major u turn on the child benefit cap . And seeing as this impacts one of their core voter demographics you’d think it would get some attention .
So the Reform policy seems to be if you’re not a British national , have worked for years here , paid your taxes and then suddenly fall ill or lose your job you get zero benefits. If you’re a Brit whose done bugger all and sponged off the state for years then you’re fine , keep claiming benefits .
Funnily the media seem to have ignored their major u turn on the child benefit cap . And seeing as this impacts one of their core voter demographics you’d think it would get some attention .
No, to be fair to Reform they have said only British nationals in work will be exempt from the 2 child benefit cap
So you lose child benefits if you get laid off? Nice!
Shame that most of their voters underpin NHS useage...
The take-down of Reform during an election camapign could be spectacular to behold. Farage of course will do what he usually does when the going gets tough - run away.
One of the UK's greatest problems is the sanctity of the NHS. No-one around the world has the same health system as the UK yet many other countries have better health outcomes. We are profoundly incurious as to why this is in the main. Despite their opponents continually saying the Tories intend to sell off the NHS, in my lifetime, during 1979-1990 and then 2010 to 2024 they signally failed to do so.
What patients want is high quality healthcare for all. This needs paying for. The current NHS model is not the only model available. We also need to consider the impacts of the failure of social care on the ability of secondary healthcare to do its job. Its insane to have hospital beds occupied by people who ought to have been discharged, whether to local cottage hospital care or their homes, with adequate care provided.
And frankly we need to challenge the belief that you are entitled to pass on your wealth (e.g. from sale of your home etc) to your children. If you need care, it needs paying for. Why should your assets be protected?
Until we can get the public to grasp these points we will continue tinkering around the edges and I believe our outcomes will continue to worsen in comparison to our continental neighbours.
I agree that the challenge, around the world, is ageing populations and we need to think about how we pay for that challenge. I also agree that problems with social care are a big source of challenges the NHS faces. However, the problem is not the supposed sanctity of the NHS or the basic NHS model.
That very piece shows clear differences in the countries you cite. I am not suggesting that the NHS is a model radically different from everywhere else, far from it. But when people propose changes the public reacts in horror.
There are two main issues:
1. NHS-as-a-religion. The idea that nothing can ever be charged for, and that waiting lists are better than taking money from customers.
2. The idea that healthcare is a binary between the NHS model and the American model, as opposed to the reality that those two countries are on the extremes and almost everyone else is somewhere in the middle.
There should probably be a Royal Commission to investigate what works and what doesn’t in the rest of the world, and then look to replicate the positive changes into the UK system with cross-party support.
More myths! The NHS is not at some sort of extreme with most countries “somewhere in the middle”. The US is very clearly a massive outlier. Most of the OECD has systems fairly similar to the NHS, some are very similar to the NHS.
We don’t need an expensive Royal Commission. There are oodles of studies published regularly on international comparisons of healthcare systems. It is a far more researched topic than, say, drivers of turnout in English local elections. The problem is that politicians don’t like them answers, namely that ageing populations and drug costs mean healthcare is more expensive and the simplest way to fix that is to spend more money.
Politicians don’t even like the second-line solutions, like reform social care, because doing that would also cost money and/or many voters.
So the Reform policy seems to be if you’re not a British national , have worked for years here , paid your taxes and then suddenly fall ill or lose your job you get zero benefits. If you’re a Brit whose done bugger all and sponged off the state for years then you’re fine , keep claiming benefits .
Funnily the media seem to have ignored their major u turn on the child benefit cap . And seeing as this impacts one of their core voter demographics you’d think it would get some attention .
No, to be fair to Reform they have said only British nationals in work will be exempt from the 2 child benefit cap
So you lose child benefits if you get laid off? Nice!
Not for your first 2 children and most parents now only have 1 child
A collaboration with Microsoft, judging by the X-box controls on the heel, although I do not know why there is a big L on what is clearly the right shoe.
So the Reform policy seems to be if you’re not a British national , have worked for years here , paid your taxes and then suddenly fall ill or lose your job you get zero benefits. If you’re a Brit whose done bugger all and sponged off the state for years then you’re fine , keep claiming benefits .
Funnily the media seem to have ignored their major u turn on the child benefit cap . And seeing as this impacts one of their core voter demographics you’d think it would get some attention .
So the Reform policy seems to be if you’re not a British national , have worked for years here , paid your taxes and then suddenly fall ill or lose your job you get zero benefits. If you’re a Brit whose done bugger all and sponged off the state for years then you’re fine , keep claiming benefits .
Funnily the media seem to have ignored their major u turn on the child benefit cap . And seeing as this impacts one of their core voter demographics you’d think it would get some attention .
Why should foreigners get benefits?
If you’ve worked and paid your taxes why shouldn’t you .
The policy is just more divide and rule from them . They really are a hateful bunch . This country is fxcked if they get in .
Since they're in charge of the design and manufacture, why can't they get the size right? Genuinely curious.
They have differing styles for loafers, formal shoes, trainers.
Is to do with the width and sole.
Sure, but why not try to make sure that, for each person, it's most likely size X of each shoe will fit them? Of course it won't be wholly possible, but explicit advice for everyone to "size down" one size sounds like it could be solved by a simple relabelling... Which leads to the question - are sizes 05 to 11 their usual, or are their usual sizes 06 to 12? Curiouser and curiouser...
Have you tried to get a shoe shop to measure your feet these days? It's almost impossible. They expect us to know our size, and adjust according to the manufacturer's idiosyncracies.
Benefits for foreigners should be contribution based up to a point. However there does need to be an element of “if you can’t support yourself or your family here then you should go home” like every other country in the world. Otherwise what is the point of citizenship?
30% of Labour voters and 25% of Green voters and 45% of LDs would vote Tory in a seat where only Reform or the Conservatives could win on that new Yougov poll
Indeed. Reform sweeping East Anglia as per MRPs looks a stretch.
The number of left wing voters who would switch to the Conservatives, and the number of Conservative voters who would switch to Labour, under any circumstances, is miniscule. If Reform really do poll 29%, they will sweep East Anglia.
45% of LDs and 30% of Labour voters being willing to tactically vote Tory to beat Reform with Yougov today is not miniscule it is nearly half of LD voters and nearly a third of Labour voters!
If they really did cross the political divide, it would be big, but we know that in practice, they do not.
We've tested it in 206 local by elections since May 2025. Reform have won 73 (35%) on 27% of the vote. The Conservatives have won 24 (12%) on 17% of the vote. If there were any evidence for left wingers for the Conservatives, we would expect it to show up in real votes.
The Tories won the Worth by election only last week mainly due to massive tactical voting from Labour voters for the Tories to beat Reform.
Tory candidates need to use LD style barcharts to show in Tory held seats only they can beat Reform, it may be the only way for the party to not go extinct at the next general election and end up merged with Reform as long as we keep FPTP
Well, that's how you have to play the game under FPTP.
Looking at other prospective tactical voting scenarios, no surprise to see large majorities of Labour and Green voters prepared to back the LDs in a fight with the Conservatives while only 45% of Reform voters would vote Conservative in such a scenario.
This suggests the LDs are in a good position in their heartlands and marginals to squeeze more tactical votes against the Conservatives.
Though at least half of even LD seats will see LD MPs main opponents as Reform now not the Tories based on the latest Nowcast, certainly outside of Surrey, Bucks and Hampshire. https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
Beating the Tories is now old news for Labour and the LDs, in most of their seats Labour and LD MPs main opponents will be Reform not the Tories on current polling.
That makes it easier for LDs as even some Tories will vote LD to stop Reform.
So the Reform policy seems to be if you’re not a British national , have worked for years here , paid your taxes and then suddenly fall ill or lose your job you get zero benefits. If you’re a Brit whose done bugger all and sponged off the state for years then you’re fine , keep claiming benefits .
Funnily the media seem to have ignored their major u turn on the child benefit cap . And seeing as this impacts one of their core voter demographics you’d think it would get some attention .
Why should foreigners get benefits?
Why should foreigners pay tax?
For the public services they use while they’re in the country.
So the Reform policy seems to be if you’re not a British national , have worked for years here , paid your taxes and then suddenly fall ill or lose your job you get zero benefits. If you’re a Brit whose done bugger all and sponged off the state for years then you’re fine , keep claiming benefits .
Funnily the media seem to have ignored their major u turn on the child benefit cap . And seeing as this impacts one of their core voter demographics you’d think it would get some attention .
Is the first part unusual?
Perfectly normal around the globe to say that non nationals are not entitled to welfare.
If you have been here for years and want to be eligible for benefits then there is a pathway to citizenship. If you have opted against that path, or not met the criteria, so be it.
So the Reform policy seems to be if you’re not a British national , have worked for years here , paid your taxes and then suddenly fall ill or lose your job you get zero benefits. If you’re a Brit whose done bugger all and sponged off the state for years then you’re fine , keep claiming benefits .
Funnily the media seem to have ignored their major u turn on the child benefit cap . And seeing as this impacts one of their core voter demographics you’d think it would get some attention .
Why should foreigners get benefits?
If you’ve worked and paid your taxes why shouldn’t you .
The policy is just more divide and rule from them . They really are a hateful bunch . This country is fxcked if they get in .
They trade on selfishness, which is apparent in a lot of our population. It used to be hidden or pushed down, but wankers like refukk have given permission for it to come to the fore. It was also apparent in large parts of the Tory party, hence Jenrick, Braverman, Kruger, etc.
So the Reform policy seems to be if you’re not a British national , have worked for years here , paid your taxes and then suddenly fall ill or lose your job you get zero benefits. If you’re a Brit whose done bugger all and sponged off the state for years then you’re fine , keep claiming benefits .
Funnily the media seem to have ignored their major u turn on the child benefit cap . And seeing as this impacts one of their core voter demographics you’d think it would get some attention .
Why should foreigners get benefits?
If you’ve worked and paid your taxes why shouldn’t you .
The policy is just more divide and rule from them . They really are a hateful bunch . This country is fxcked if they get in .
Because if you are not a citizen you are not entitled to them, same as almost every other country on the planet.
There are pathways to citizenship if you want to take that route.
So the Reform policy seems to be if you’re not a British national , have worked for years here , paid your taxes and then suddenly fall ill or lose your job you get zero benefits. If you’re a Brit whose done bugger all and sponged off the state for years then you’re fine , keep claiming benefits .
Funnily the media seem to have ignored their major u turn on the child benefit cap . And seeing as this impacts one of their core voter demographics you’d think it would get some attention .
Why should foreigners get benefits?
If you’ve worked and paid your taxes why shouldn’t you .
The policy is just more divide and rule from them . They really are a hateful bunch . This country is fxcked if they get in .
If you’re a foreigner, the taxes you pay are for the public services you receive while you’re in the country.
I actually don’t know of any country that pays benefits to foreigners, while admitting that the EU might define ‘foreigners’ differently to everyone else on Earth.
30% of Labour voters and 25% of Green voters and 45% of LDs would vote Tory in a seat where only Reform or the Conservatives could win on that new Yougov poll
Indeed. Reform sweeping East Anglia as per MRPs looks a stretch.
The number of left wing voters who would switch to the Conservatives, and the number of Conservative voters who would switch to Labour, under any circumstances, is miniscule. If Reform really do poll 29%, they will sweep East Anglia.
45% of LDs and 30% of Labour voters being willing to tactically vote Tory to beat Reform with Yougov today is not miniscule it is nearly half of LD voters and nearly a third of Labour voters!
If they really did cross the political divide, it would be big, but we know that in practice, they do not.
We've tested it in 206 local by elections since May 2025. Reform have won 73 (35%) on 27% of the vote. The Conservatives have won 24 (12%) on 17% of the vote. If there were any evidence for left wingers for the Conservatives, we would expect it to show up in real votes.
The Tories won the Worth by election only last week mainly due to massive tactical voting from Labour voters for the Tories to beat Reform.
Tory candidates need to use LD style barcharts to show in Tory held seats only they can beat Reform, it may be the only way for the party to not go extinct at the next general election and end up merged with Reform as long as we keep FPTP
Well, that's how you have to play the game under FPTP.
Looking at other prospective tactical voting scenarios, no surprise to see large majorities of Labour and Green voters prepared to back the LDs in a fight with the Conservatives while only 45% of Reform voters would vote Conservative in such a scenario.
This suggests the LDs are in a good position in their heartlands and marginals to squeeze more tactical votes against the Conservatives.
Though at least half of even LD seats will see LD MPs main opponents as Reform now not the Tories based on the latest Nowcast, certainly outside of Surrey, Bucks and Hampshire. https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
Beating the Tories is now old news for Labour and the LDs, in most of their seats Labour and LD MPs main opponents will be Reform not the Tories on current polling.
That makes it easier for LDs as even some Tories will vote LD to stop Reform.
I think it will be the coastal Lib Dem seats that will see the strongest RefUK attacks - places in the West Country, North Norfolk, the South Coast, with large numbers of retired folk.
Sending the youth of Moscow and St Petersburg to die in huge numbers in Ukrainian meat grinders is going to test Putin's resolve not to fall out a window...
Rachel Reeves has ruled out an increase in defence spending this year after coming under pressure from military chiefs. On Wednesday, the Chancellor said the Ministry of Defence (MoD) would have to wait for “future spending reviews” before pouring billions more into Britain’s military.
So the Reform policy seems to be if you’re not a British national , have worked for years here , paid your taxes and then suddenly fall ill or lose your job you get zero benefits. If you’re a Brit whose done bugger all and sponged off the state for years then you’re fine , keep claiming benefits .
Funnily the media seem to have ignored their major u turn on the child benefit cap . And seeing as this impacts one of their core voter demographics you’d think it would get some attention .
Is the first part unusual?
Perfectly normal around the globe to say that non nationals are not entitled to welfare.
If you have been here for years and want to be eligible for benefits then there is a pathway to citizenship. If you have opted against that path, or not met the criteria, so be it.
Yes, I would say the first part is unusual. Most countries in the world do provide some benefits or services to resident non-nationals, if not as many as citizens get. It can vary by exact status and time in the country, so in the US, for example, you qualify for SNAP and Medicaid if you’ve been legally resident for 5 years in most cases.
Benefits for foreigners should be contribution based up to a point. However there does need to be an element of “if you can’t support yourself or your family here then you should go home” like every other country in the world. Otherwise what is the point of citizenship?
Isn't that pretty much what we have with the 5 year route? First 5 years on no recourse to public funds, then 5 years ILR with access to benefits, then eligible for citizenship? A ladder, if you will.
So the Reform policy seems to be if you’re not a British national , have worked for years here , paid your taxes and then suddenly fall ill or lose your job you get zero benefits. If you’re a Brit whose done bugger all and sponged off the state for years then you’re fine , keep claiming benefits .
Funnily the media seem to have ignored their major u turn on the child benefit cap . And seeing as this impacts one of their core voter demographics you’d think it would get some attention .
Why should foreigners get benefits?
If you’ve worked and paid your taxes why shouldn’t you .
The policy is just more divide and rule from them . They really are a hateful bunch . This country is fxcked if they get in .
If you’re a foreigner, the taxes you pay are for the public services you receive while you’re in the country.
I actually don’t know of any country that pays benefits to foreigners, while admitting that the EU might define ‘foreigners’ differently to everyone else on Earth.
Some non-citizens in that US get food stamps (SNAP) and Medicaid. In Australia, they can get a jobseeker benefit after 4 years. You get unemployment benefit in Japan if you’ve made enough contributions. It’s commonplace for countries to provide certain benefits to some non-citizens.
Six Palestine Action activists will face a retrial on criminal damage charges over a break-in at Elbit Systems, the Crown Prosecution Service has announced.
So the Reform policy seems to be if you’re not a British national , have worked for years here , paid your taxes and then suddenly fall ill or lose your job you get zero benefits. If you’re a Brit whose done bugger all and sponged off the state for years then you’re fine , keep claiming benefits .
Funnily the media seem to have ignored their major u turn on the child benefit cap . And seeing as this impacts one of their core voter demographics you’d think it would get some attention .
Is the first part unusual?
Perfectly normal around the globe to say that non nationals are not entitled to welfare.
If you have been here for years and want to be eligible for benefits then there is a pathway to citizenship. If you have opted against that path, or not met the criteria, so be it.
Among European countries at least it is not the case that foreigners can't access welfare benefits, although access does tend to be more limited as it is here. In the US green card holders can access most federal benefits after 5 years and recognised refugees can access them immediately. Some US states are more generous.
Benefits for foreigners should be contribution based up to a point. However there does need to be an element of “if you can’t support yourself or your family here then you should go home” like every other country in the world. Otherwise what is the point of citizenship?
Isn't that pretty much what we have with the 5 year route? First 5 years on no recourse to public funds, then 5 years ILR with access to benefits, then eligible for citizenship? A ladder, if you will.
What are the criteria to pass from no recourse to ILR, and is there is vetting procedure at this stage?
From my limited research it appears that the process is almost automatic, and very few people are being refused ILR after five years.
30% of Labour voters and 25% of Green voters and 45% of LDs would vote Tory in a seat where only Reform or the Conservatives could win on that new Yougov poll
Indeed. Reform sweeping East Anglia as per MRPs looks a stretch.
The number of left wing voters who would switch to the Conservatives, and the number of Conservative voters who would switch to Labour, under any circumstances, is miniscule. If Reform really do poll 29%, they will sweep East Anglia.
45% of LDs and 30% of Labour voters being willing to tactically vote Tory to beat Reform with Yougov today is not miniscule it is nearly half of LD voters and nearly a third of Labour voters!
If they really did cross the political divide, it would be big, but we know that in practice, they do not.
We've tested it in 206 local by elections since May 2025. Reform have won 73 (35%) on 27% of the vote. The Conservatives have won 24 (12%) on 17% of the vote. If there were any evidence for left wingers for the Conservatives, we would expect it to show up in real votes.
The Tories won the Worth by election only last week mainly due to massive tactical voting from Labour voters for the Tories to beat Reform.
Tory candidates need to use LD style barcharts to show in Tory held seats only they can beat Reform, it may be the only way for the party to not go extinct at the next general election and end up merged with Reform as long as we keep FPTP
Well, that's how you have to play the game under FPTP.
Looking at other prospective tactical voting scenarios, no surprise to see large majorities of Labour and Green voters prepared to back the LDs in a fight with the Conservatives while only 45% of Reform voters would vote Conservative in such a scenario.
This suggests the LDs are in a good position in their heartlands and marginals to squeeze more tactical votes against the Conservatives.
Though at least half of even LD seats will see LD MPs main opponents as Reform now not the Tories based on the latest Nowcast, certainly outside of Surrey, Bucks and Hampshire. https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
Beating the Tories is now old news for Labour and the LDs, in most of their seats Labour and LD MPs main opponents will be Reform not the Tories on current polling.
That makes it easier for LDs as even some Tories will vote LD to stop Reform.
I think it will be the coastal Lib Dem seats that will see the strongest RefUK attacks - places in the West Country, North Norfolk, the South Coast, with large numbers of retired folk.
North Norfolk (my constituency now) will come down to LD vs which of Ref or Con can convince they are main challengers. The county council elections will give us a steer - i expect LD to win a lot of wards if not most but will be keeping a close eye on the RefCon vote. Worth remembering the Tory vote here in 2024 was higher than in Broadland which they held and analagous to their other 2 seats of NW and Mid Norfolk. So they arent going to disappear (making it a very very tough ask for Reform if the LD vote holds). A lot of retired but also a lot of money in North Norfolk
Benefits for foreigners should be contribution based up to a point. However there does need to be an element of “if you can’t support yourself or your family here then you should go home” like every other country in the world. Otherwise what is the point of citizenship?
Isn't that pretty much what we have with the 5 year route? First 5 years on no recourse to public funds, then 5 years ILR with access to benefits, then eligible for citizenship? A ladder, if you will.
What are the criteria to pass from no recourse to ILR, and is there is vetting procedure at this stage?
From my limited research it appears that the process is almost automatic, and very few people are being refused ILR after five years.
U-Turn #2565465 incoming. By "slow" they mean kick so far into the long grass. Fail to plan, plan to fail.
One factor likely pushing up youth unemployment in the UK is AI take-up. I've seen an interesting chart showing the increase in youth unemployment is greater in countries like the UK with relatively high rates of AI adoption. Certainly makes sense with respect to the timing of the rise, which started two years before Labour came in and enacted all these supposed job destroying policies.
Rachel Reeves has ruled out an increase in defence spending this year after coming under pressure from military chiefs. On Wednesday, the Chancellor said the Ministry of Defence (MoD) would have to wait for “future spending reviews” before pouring billions more into Britain’s military.
Battle ready by 2034 3034....
As always, there needs to be a differentiation between military spending and military capability.
There’s never been a startup disruptive arms industry until now, and the government needs to start taking advantage of that rather than pouring endless billions into the same old military industrial complex. War spending priorities rather than peace spending priorities.
Benefits for foreigners should be contribution based up to a point. However there does need to be an element of “if you can’t support yourself or your family here then you should go home” like every other country in the world. Otherwise what is the point of citizenship?
Isn't that pretty much what we have with the 5 year route? First 5 years on no recourse to public funds, then 5 years ILR with access to benefits, then eligible for citizenship? A ladder, if you will.
What are the criteria to pass from no recourse to ILR, and is there is vetting procedure at this stage?
From my limited research it appears that the process is almost automatic, and very few people are being refused ILR after five years.
The trouble with making pathways to permanent residence and citizenship more uncertain is that you will deter the people you most want, who have other options and don't want to subject their life to unnecessary uncertainty.
A beautiful bromance between a meth addict and a gym bunny with a literal brain worm. Is this the cultural and civilisational renaissance Europe is supposed to join in?
U-Turn #2565465 incoming. By "slow" they mean kick so far into the long grass. Fail to plan, plan to fail.
One factor likely pushing up youth unemployment in the UK is AI take-up. I've seen an interesting chart showing the increase in youth unemployment is greater in countries like the UK with relatively high rates of AI adoption. Certainly makes sense with respect to the timing of the rise, which started two years before Labour came in and enacted all these supposed job destroying policies.
The AI narrative is massive overstated at the moment. It doesn't really fit as it was shit 3 years ago and its still minor usage. I am as big a fan / user of AI as there is and I don't think it anywhere near there yet to making masses of people unemployed.
Also yes been rising for 3-4 years, but there was big bump the last year. I think its much simpler, the economy hasn't been growing for years, things are tight, you don't hire as much, especially inexperienced*, and the current government have made that worse by tanking business confidence and raising taxes / minimum wage making the problem worse.
* also I have heard from both those in academia and business that the cohort who came through under COVID are really lacking in many aspects.
Comments
We've tested it in 206 local by elections since May 2025. Reform have won 73 (35%) on 27% of the vote. The Conservatives have won 24 (12%) on 17% of the vote. If there were any evidence for left wingers for the Conservatives, we would expect it to show up in real votes.
As with 1980s banks, the partners sitting down when the music stops and the sale is made can make a packet.
An Odexa poll late last year had Bardella beating Melenchon 74% to 26% in a 2nd round runoff between them
https://www.odoxa.fr/sondage/jordan-bardella-est-la-personnalite-politique-preferee-des-francais-et-remporterait-la-presidentielle-si-elle-avait-lieu-dimanche-prochain/ (p31)
Just do it.
https://www.nhrm.gov.tw/w/nhrmEN/JMParks
It'll bring the mood right down.
Do take the Shinkansen down to Kaohsiung if you have time. A more laid back vibe.
But if you can only do one trip out of Taipei, it has to be Taroko Gorge.
·
20h
Farage has announced his Shadow Cabinet, with no Health Secretary.
Presumably because if he becomes Prime Minister, there’ll be no NHS.'
https://x.com/wesstreeting/status/2023769243334930929?s=20
A transition from GP partnerships to local health centres who will also employ salaried GPs, nursing assistants, pharmacists, district nurses, care workers, physiotherapists, and mental health specialists, is what is required. Urgently.
Leave the GP partnerships just with the partners and a much reduced number of patients. And Private Equity can nurse their losses.
Since he is still trying to delay / Appeal his compensation to E Jean Carroll, is the Judge supervising the Trump organisation's books still in place? But IIRC that was linked to the fraud case.
1% on 10 million here might well catch both the Centrist Dads. Rory has his 100 acre estate outside Edinburgh (shared ownership with family) which costs nearly £20k to rent for a week & a big place in central London - if I have this right. And Alistair has 20+ years returns on his diary payments ("my pension") and a basically £2-3m house round the the corner from where I used to be in South Hampstead (shared with the missus). Plus the rest for both of them.
Shame that most of their voters underpin NHS useage...
The take-down of Reform during an election camapign could be spectacular to behold. Farage of course will do what he usually does when the going gets tough - run away.
- The hulls were warped
- The fit and finish was rubbish
- After they had assembled the bits, the bloody thing didn't work
Opinions are divided on who is to blame for this. It might be the MOD for changing their minds every five minutes. It might be GDLS for making several large piles of shit. It might be reality for ensuring that a 2000s design based on a need originated in the 1980s is no longer fit for purpose. My guess is all three.Ajax is too fat to recon, too creaky to fight, too thirsty to keep up with the tank tanks, falls apart if you look at it wrong and if you get your leg trapped in the door it'll amputate it. Plus it leaks. It's awful.
We know what the problems are. It's too heavy for its suspension, the gun is too big for the turret, and GDLS can't build tank good. The cure is i) new suspension (see the M10 Booker for an example), ii) a slightly smaller gun, and iii) sue them to death. But nobody is doing this. There's lots of meetings, mind.
I mean if we take South Norfolk as an example - Labour gain in 2024 but 100% will be Ref vs Con this time
‘Make places like Somerset take more migrants, Danish minister tells UK’
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/places-somerset-more-migrants-danish-174138587.html
All non-Russian social channels are getting blocked, to dampen dissent that may arise from the announcement.
If that’s true, then Russia is planning on WWIII, and the rest of the world is going to need to have a response to it.
Of course their economy might collapse to nothing beforehand, which is what we should all be working towards at the moment by any means necessary.
What patients want is high quality healthcare for all. This needs paying for. The current NHS model is not the only model available. We also need to consider the impacts of the failure of social care on the ability of secondary healthcare to do its job. Its insane to have hospital beds occupied by people who ought to have been discharged, whether to local cottage hospital care or their homes, with adequate care provided.
And frankly we need to challenge the belief that you are entitled to pass on your wealth (e.g. from sale of your home etc) to your children. If you need care, it needs paying for. Why should your assets be protected?
Until we can get the public to grasp these points we will continue tinkering around the edges and I believe our outcomes will continue to worsen in comparison to our continental neighbours.
Kaare Dybvad Bek, Denmark’s employment minister who is part of the leading centre-left Social Democratic Party, told an event in Westminster on Monday that he found it “curious” that parts of southern England lacked diversity while the north of England was very diverse.
A suggestion that they are far right immediately becomes "are they calling us Nazis?" (which "they" very rarely are), followed by a 5 minute diversion repeating the made up accusation.
The group I mentioned - National Rebirth Party - is well towards Neo-Nazi. The chap who runs it, Alan Yerbury, has gone through multiple splinters of Patriotic Alternative, tried to set up a faux-military, and even looks spookily like Pantomime Adolf in brown trousers.
https://hopenothate.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Yerbs-2.jpg
Changing to a part payment or insurance based system which will have higher admin costs will not result in more money being spent on treatment.
Tory candidates need to use LD style barcharts to show in Tory held seats only they can beat Reform, it may be the only way for the party to not go extinct at the next general election and end up merged with Reform as long as we keep FPTP
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2022308537611723133?s=20
https://x.com/danieljhannan/status/2024083350076391685
The Labour government in a nutshell. Unable to evict foreigners who have landed illegally in the UK, determined to evict British subjects who have returned to their old homes.
We already have a strong private healthcare system in the UK. We have lots of high earners. We are well used to insurance in most walks of life. Time to get real.
Stick to the one picture a day limit.
International comparisons generally find that the details of how a public healthcare system is organised don't make that difference. The main determinant of outcomes is spending and we spend less on the NHS: see https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/insight-and-analysis/reports/nhs-compare-health-care-systems-other-countries
I agree that the challenge, around the world, is ageing populations and we need to think about how we pay for that challenge. I also agree that problems with social care are a big source of challenges the NHS faces. However, the problem is not the supposed sanctity of the NHS or the basic NHS model.
Absolute bargain
https://uk.louisvuitton.com/eng-gb/products/lv-trainer-sneaker-nvprod7160012v/1AJA04
The entire Ajax project was started with the philosophy of "Go light. Go early. Go home." That is, getting armoured vehicles into a conflict quickly because it's easy to transport was the key to a swift and decisive outcome. This was predicated on ground breaking and world beating lightweight British armour technology that turned out not to exist.
Looking at other prospective tactical voting scenarios, no surprise to see large majorities of Labour and Green voters prepared to back the LDs in a fight with the Conservatives while only 45% of Reform voters would vote Conservative in such a scenario.
This suggests the LDs are in a good position in their heartlands and marginals to squeeze more tactical votes against the Conservatives.
You’d be right at home in Dubai Mall’s Fashion Avenue.
(sorry)
Since they're in charge of the design and manufacture, why can't they get the size right? Genuinely curious.
1. NHS-as-a-religion. The idea that nothing can ever be charged for, and that waiting lists are better than taking money from customers.
2. The idea that healthcare is a binary between the NHS model and the American model, as opposed to the reality that those two countries are on the extremes and almost everyone else is somewhere in the middle.
There should probably be a Royal Commission to investigate what works and what doesn’t in the rest of the world, and then look to replicate the positive changes into the UK system with cross-party support.
Funnily the media seem to have ignored their major u turn on the child benefit cap . And seeing as this impacts one of their core voter demographics you’d think it would get some attention .
Furthermore, the Lib Dems have spent the last two years firming up their bases - what they have, they are working hard to hold. Anecdotally, it now seems (from Michael Crick's posts on X) that the majority of candidates being selected for the next General Election are Lib Dems. They may not be making much of a splash in the media, but there's a lot of evidence of rudimentary competence developing behind the scenes.
Is to do with the width and sole.
For my LV loafers I’m a size 11, for some of the trainers I’m a size 10 but usually a 10.
On the face of it looks like it will be tough to crack far into the LD held seats (if at all) without seeing a reduction in the LD base vote towards 10% or the Tories getting beyond, say, 23% (thats assuming they are continuing to lose some additional votes in the North)
https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
Beating the Tories is now old news for Labour and the LDs, in most of their seats Labour and LD MPs main opponents will be Reform not the Tories on current polling.
We don’t need an expensive Royal Commission. There are oodles of studies published regularly on international comparisons of healthcare systems. It is a far more researched topic than, say, drivers of turnout in English local elections. The problem is that politicians don’t like them answers, namely that ageing populations and drug costs mean healthcare is more expensive and the simplest way to fix that is to spend more money.
Politicians don’t even like the second-line solutions, like reform social care, because doing that would also cost money and/or many voters.
The policy is just more divide and rule from them . They really are a hateful bunch . This country is fxcked if they get in .
Perfectly normal around the globe to say that non nationals are not entitled to welfare.
If you have been here for years and want to be eligible for benefits then there is a pathway to citizenship. If you have opted against that path, or not met the criteria, so be it.
There are pathways to citizenship if you want to take that route.
I actually don’t know of any country that pays benefits to foreigners, while admitting that the EU might define ‘foreigners’ differently to everyone else on Earth.
Battle ready by
20343034....https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/feb/18/ministers-may-slow-youth-minimum-wage-rise-uk-unemployment-fears
U-Turn #2565465 incoming. By "slow" they mean kick so far into the long grass. Fail to plan, plan to fail.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/palestine-action-retrial-elbit-systems-qdtk6fcmf
From my limited research it appears that the process is almost automatic, and very few people are being refused ILR after five years.
The county council elections will give us a steer - i expect LD to win a lot of wards if not most but will be keeping a close eye on the RefCon vote.
Worth remembering the Tory vote here in 2024 was higher than in Broadland which they held and analagous to their other 2 seats of NW and Mid Norfolk. So they arent going to disappear (making it a very very tough ask for Reform if the LD vote holds).
A lot of retired but also a lot of money in North Norfolk
There’s never been a startup disruptive arms industry until now, and the government needs to start taking advantage of that rather than pouring endless billions into the same old military industrial complex. War spending priorities rather than peace spending priorities.
https://x.com/seckennedy/status/2023860472026669400?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Also yes been rising for 3-4 years, but there was big bump the last year. I think its much simpler, the economy hasn't been growing for years, things are tight, you don't hire as much, especially inexperienced*, and the current government have made that worse by tanking business confidence and raising taxes / minimum wage making the problem worse.
* also I have heard from both those in academia and business that the cohort who came through under COVID are really lacking in many aspects.