So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
There was a period in Q4 of last year when it appeared that Ukraine was finally being overwhelmed and their resistance was starting to crumble but, for whatever reason, the balance now seems to have swung back the other way and it is Russia that is struggling. Given that the US has provided almost nothing over this period (other than some intelligence) it appears to me from the outside that the driving forces for this are remarkable leaps in Ukraine drone technology and the loss of Starlink for the Russians. supported by a much more determined European response.
Rubio's comment that no one is winning is probably fair but if you had to pick a winner right now it wouldn't be Russia.
No one is winning, but despite what the USA thinks that doesn't mean you should decide that resistance to conquest is therefore pointless.
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
I think Starmer's big idea is to sail HMS Prince of Wales on a week long cruise around Iceland.
Err, that's it.
It makes more sense than spending an entire year sending it to fucking Australia. The North Atlantic should be the RN's home ground.
Home sea?
Home ocean sounds a bit gay
That reminds me of this Brasseye skit on the Navy!
They can't swim, they nudge each other whilst shooting. They muck about.....
And Gina McKee looking fooking gorgeous
Where is Chris Morris these days? He’s badly needed….
Can’t image any of his stuff getting past today’s TV executives and commissioners. Perhaps he’d find a home on Netflix.
The satire of The Day Today and Brass Eye is as relevant now as it was 30 years ago. Probably more so.
How has it come to pass that we’re now more afraid of biting satire than we were. Which is not to say he didn’t ruffle feathers at the time - which was the entire point.
The Brass Eye episode on drugs, is one of the funniest pieces of satire ever to appear on television.
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
There was a period in Q4 of last year when it appeared that Ukraine was finally being overwhelmed and their resistance was starting to crumble but, for whatever reason, the balance now seems to have swung back the other way and it is Russia that is struggling. Given that the US has provided almost nothing over this period (other than some intelligence) it appears to me from the outside that the driving forces for this are remarkable leaps in Ukraine drone technology and the loss of Starlink for the Russians. supported by a much more determined European response.
Rubio's comment that no one is winning is probably fair but if you had to pick a winner right now it wouldn't be Russia.
In training exercises in Estonia Ukraine's forces, with their drones, scored an emphatic victory over NATO troops. We have so much to learn from them and a real opportunity to jump several expensive generations of kit at no cost to us (other than paying them in some of our production, of course).
Time for one of my ludicrous predictions. The advent of Restore Britain will hasten Farages inevitable exit from UK politics before the next GE
It's an interesting challenge, to be sure.
The Conservatives had it easy when their rivals to the right were obviously unacceptable- NF, BNP and so on. Then Farage came along and they've not had it easy since. Fighting on two fronts is largely a losing strategy.
Labour have always had problems on their left flank, but Polanski's Greens look like the toughest rivals yet.
Now Lowe looks like he will try to insert himself between Farage and blatant fash. I don't know if he will manage it, but it will be fascinating seeing him try and even more fascinating seeing Farage's response.
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
I think Starmer's big idea is to sail HMS Prince of Wales on a week long cruise around Iceland.
Err, that's it.
It makes more sense than spending an entire year sending it to fucking Australia. The North Atlantic should be the RN's home ground.
Home sea?
Home ocean sounds a bit gay
That reminds me of this Brasseye skit on the Navy!
They can't swim, they nudge each other whilst shooting. They muck about.....
And Gina McKee looking fooking gorgeous
Where is Chris Morris these days? He’s badly needed….
Can’t image any of his stuff getting past today’s TV executives and commissioners. Perhaps he’d find a home on Netflix.
The satire of The Day Today and Brass Eye is as relevant now as it was 30 years ago. Probably more so.
How has it come to pass that we’re now more afraid of biting satire than we were. Which is not to say he didn’t ruffle feathers at the time - which was the entire point.
The Brass Eye episode on drugs, is one of the funniest pieces of satire ever to appear on television.
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
I think Starmer's big idea is to sail HMS Prince of Wales on a week long cruise around Iceland.
Err, that's it.
It makes more sense than spending an entire year sending it to fucking Australia. The North Atlantic should be the RN's home ground.
Home sea?
Home ocean sounds a bit gay
That reminds me of this Brasseye skit on the Navy!
They can't swim, they nudge each other whilst shooting. They muck about.....
And Gina McKee looking fooking gorgeous
Where is Chris Morris these days? He’s badly needed….
Can’t image any of his stuff getting past today’s TV executives and commissioners. Perhaps he’d find a home on Netflix.
The satire of The Day Today and Brass Eye is as relevant now as it was 30 years ago. Probably more so.
How has it come to pass that we’re now more afraid of biting satire than we were. Which is not to say he didn’t ruffle feathers at the time - which was the entire point.
The Brass Eye episode on drugs, is one of the funniest pieces of satire ever to appear on television.
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
I think Starmer's big idea is to sail HMS Prince of Wales on a week long cruise around Iceland.
Err, that's it.
It makes more sense than spending an entire year sending it to fucking Australia. The North Atlantic should be the RN's home ground.
Home sea?
Home ocean sounds a bit gay
That reminds me of this Brasseye skit on the Navy!
They can't swim, they nudge each other whilst shooting. They muck about.....
And Gina McKee looking fooking gorgeous
Where is Chris Morris these days? He’s badly needed….
Can’t image any of his stuff getting past today’s TV executives and commissioners. Perhaps he’d find a home on Netflix.
The satire of The Day Today and Brass Eye is as relevant now as it was 30 years ago. Probably more so.
How has it come to pass that we’re now more afraid of biting satire than we were. Which is not to say he didn’t ruffle feathers at the time - which was the entire point.
The Brass Eye episode on drugs, is one of the funniest pieces of satire ever to appear on television.
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
I think Starmer's big idea is to sail HMS Prince of Wales on a week long cruise around Iceland.
Err, that's it.
It makes more sense than spending an entire year sending it to fucking Australia. The North Atlantic should be the RN's home ground.
Home sea?
Home ocean sounds a bit gay
That reminds me of this Brasseye skit on the Navy!
They can't swim, they nudge each other whilst shooting. They muck about.....
And Gina McKee looking fooking gorgeous
Where is Chris Morris these days? He’s badly needed….
Can’t image any of his stuff getting past today’s TV executives and commissioners. Perhaps he’d find a home on Netflix.
The satire of The Day Today and Brass Eye is as relevant now as it was 30 years ago. Probably more so.
How has it come to pass that we’re now more afraid of biting satire than we were. Which is not to say he didn’t ruffle feathers at the time - which was the entire point.
The Brass Eye episode on drugs, is one of the funniest pieces of satire ever to appear on television.
I hope we don't have to wait too much longer for the Chaz insanity. Though I doubt it will hit the same feverish peak with the Queue Wankers, etc.
R4 played parts of the BBC interview with Gisèle Pelicot this am with some unseemly glee over their scoop. Inevitably a hushed recitation of a letter from ‘Queen’ Camilla to Mme Pelicot showing sisterly solidarity against male abuse. No mention of the beastly brother in law of course.
I see Marco Rubio is playing the good cop to Vance's bad cop routine on Europe.
Not working, actions speak louder than words.
I don't think Trump and his coterie have any insight into how offensive the threats to Greenland were. It put Carney's end of the rules based system, echoed by Merz yesterday, into absolute focus. It's unfortunate that Starmer seemed to have nothing of relevance to say about this. I fear he is still falling into the trap of "best buds" that Carney so brilliantly destroyed.
The odds on her being the Democrat candidate is 11.5 (9%) on Betfair. Second favourite behind Newsom.
I think the dream ticket for the Dems is Newsom with AOC as his VP. Newsom provides the look (white, male, tall, presidential) and a strategy that can widen the appeal beyond the core. AOC provides the fire and energy that will get out the core vote. Width and depth.
Dream ticket for Vance you mean! An arrogant rich California Democrat as their nominee with a far left woke Israel hater from New York as his running mate is guaranteed to turn middle America off.
Buttigieg or Shapiro or Beshear might worry Vance and the GOP, Newsom and AOC would not
Almost anyone could beat Vance, assuming fair election in 2028.
Perhaps if Trump's approval ratings continue to be in the toilet but Vance is clever and ruthless and grew up in poverty in Ohio, which was the ultimate swing state until 2020 and got himself to the 2nd most powerful job in the land by cunning and hard work.
Gavin Newsom's father meanwhile was attorney for Getty Oil and AOC's father was an architect and neither have shown any ability to connect with swing voters in the rustbelt, they have only been elected in safe Democrat states.
AOC has dropped her pronouns and has adopted Bernie Sanders priorities, in particular, cost of living.
A 2025 AtlasIntel poll found her to be one of only three major political leaders with a net positive image, with 46% of Americans viewing her positively compared to 44% negatively.
AOC recently toured Arizona and Nevada with Bernie Sanders, where they attracted record-breaking crowds (including 34,000 in Denver, Colorado).
A July 2025 poll of "Biden skippers"—voters in battleground states who sat out the 2024 election—found that 78% had a favorable view of Bernie Sanders, the highest of any Democratic-aligned figure.
I'm not suggesting her for President - too young, short, woman, brown - but as a VP complement to Newsom (tall, white, male, presidential). It's a ticket that reaches Bernie Sanders supporters. AOC is young enough to bide her time as VP for two terms if necessary.
It's a strong combination.
I think AOC would be a good VP candidate although she may choose to bide her time so that she can run either in 2032/2036 when she would be (I think) 45-50.
AOC + Newsom would be a disaster - reinforces the coastal state narrative
I think State of origen is a bit exagerrated in importance. How much did having Walz on the ticket help Harris in the Midwest?
Trump is New York to the core yet wins in Alabama, and does anyone realistically think Buttigeig could flip Indiana or Beshar flip Kentucky?
Comparing the two Trump wins:
Minnesota 2016 Clinton +1.52% 2024 Harris +4.24%
Michigan 2016 Trump +0.23% 2024 Trump +1.42%
Pennsylvania 2016 Trump +0.72% 2024 Trump +1.71%
Wisconsin 2016 Trump +0.77% 2024 Trump +0.86%
Compared with California
2016 Clinton +30.11% 2024 Harris +20.24%
Suggests that Walz did help in the rust belt states, especially his home Minnesota.
Certainly more than Harris did in either California or adjacent Nevada and Arizona.
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
I think Starmer's big idea is to sail HMS Prince of Wales on a week long cruise around Iceland.
Err, that's it.
It makes more sense than spending an entire year sending it to fucking Australia. The North Atlantic should be the RN's home ground.
Home sea?
Home ocean sounds a bit gay
That reminds me of this Brasseye skit on the Navy!
They can't swim, they nudge each other whilst shooting. They muck about.....
And Gina McKee looking fooking gorgeous
Where is Chris Morris these days? He’s badly needed….
Can’t image any of his stuff getting past today’s TV executives and commissioners. Perhaps he’d find a home on Netflix.
The satire of The Day Today and Brass Eye is as relevant now as it was 30 years ago. Probably more so.
How has it come to pass that we’re now more afraid of biting satire than we were. Which is not to say he didn’t ruffle feathers at the time - which was the entire point.
The Brass Eye episode on drugs, is one of the funniest pieces of satire ever to appear on television.
I hope we don't have to wait too much longer for the Chaz insanity. Though I doubt it will hit the same feverish peak with the Queue Wankers, etc.
I strongly expect William to exceed expectations and be a total disaster, at least Charles is relatively benign.
He does seem phenomenally awkward and his Mrs, as my mother used to say, won't make old bones. It's impossible to have anything but contempt for people who would be so cruel as to keep their children inside the gilded cage of the royal-industrial complex.
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
There was a period in Q4 of last year when it appeared that Ukraine was finally being overwhelmed and their resistance was starting to crumble but, for whatever reason, the balance now seems to have swung back the other way and it is Russia that is struggling. Given that the US has provided almost nothing over this period (other than some intelligence) it appears to me from the outside that the driving forces for this are remarkable leaps in Ukraine drone technology and the loss of Starlink for the Russians. supported by a much more determined European response.
Rubio's comment that no one is winning is probably fair but if you had to pick a winner right now it wouldn't be Russia.
In training exercises in Estonia Ukraine's forces, with their drones, scored an emphatic victory over NATO troops. We have so much to learn from them and a real opportunity to jump several expensive generations of kit at no cost to us (other than paying them in some of our production, of course).
Its a vivid demonstration of what Europe needs to do to break their dependence on US kit and technology given our new more distant relationship.
Trump's frankly ridiculous response is that Ukraine has to move or make concessions to get peace. Ukraine are increasingly simply ignoring them.
The longer Ukraine ignores Trump, the more desperate Putin will become. He went all in on Trump bailing him out. His hydrocarbons industry is having its kit and its markets systematically taken down. His ability to fight and finance war is at the edge of collapse.
Time for one of my ludicrous predictions. The advent of Restore Britain will hasten Farages inevitable exit from UK politics before the next GE
It's an interesting challenge, to be sure.
The Conservatives had it easy when their rivals to the right were obviously unacceptable- NF, BNP and so on. Then Farage came along and they've not had it easy since. Fighting on two fronts is largely a losing strategy.
Labour have always had problems on their left flank, but Polanski's Greens look like the toughest rivals yet.
Now Lowe looks like he will try to insert himself between Farage and blatant fash. I don't know if he will manage it, but it will be fascinating seeing him try and even more fascinating seeing Farage's response.
Certainly interesting. If Lowe peels off even 3 to 4% of that Reform score then even a modest Lab or Tory (or both) recovery will wreck Farages chance of being PM Reform 29 % - Farage PM likely Reform 23% - 100 seats or fewer We are in a bubble and have been since May. Bubbles tend to burst eventually. Especially when inflated by those who often do not vote and/or have no long term ingrained loyalty
Thus i think Farage goes before the great deflation
The odds on her being the Democrat candidate is 11.5 (9%) on Betfair. Second favourite behind Newsom.
I think the dream ticket for the Dems is Newsom with AOC as his VP. Newsom provides the look (white, male, tall, presidential) and a strategy that can widen the appeal beyond the core. AOC provides the fire and energy that will get out the core vote. Width and depth.
Dream ticket for Vance you mean! An arrogant rich California Democrat as their nominee with a far left woke Israel hater from New York as his running mate is guaranteed to turn middle America off.
Buttigieg or Shapiro or Beshear might worry Vance and the GOP, Newsom and AOC would not
Almost anyone could beat Vance, assuming fair election in 2028.
Perhaps if Trump's approval ratings continue to be in the toilet but Vance is clever and ruthless and grew up in poverty in Ohio, which was the ultimate swing state until 2020 and got himself to the 2nd most powerful job in the land by cunning and hard work.
Gavin Newsom's father meanwhile was attorney for Getty Oil and AOC's father was an architect and neither have shown any ability to connect with swing voters in the rustbelt, they have only been elected in safe Democrat states.
AOC has dropped her pronouns and has adopted Bernie Sanders priorities, in particular, cost of living.
A 2025 AtlasIntel poll found her to be one of only three major political leaders with a net positive image, with 46% of Americans viewing her positively compared to 44% negatively.
AOC recently toured Arizona and Nevada with Bernie Sanders, where they attracted record-breaking crowds (including 34,000 in Denver, Colorado).
A July 2025 poll of "Biden skippers"—voters in battleground states who sat out the 2024 election—found that 78% had a favorable view of Bernie Sanders, the highest of any Democratic-aligned figure.
I'm not suggesting her for President - too young, short, woman, brown - but as a VP complement to Newsom (tall, white, male, presidential). It's a ticket that reaches Bernie Sanders supporters. AOC is young enough to bide her time as VP for two terms if necessary.
It's a strong combination.
I think AOC would be a good VP candidate although she may choose to bide her time so that she can run either in 2032/2036 when she would be (I think) 45-50.
AOC + Newsom would be a disaster - reinforces the coastal state narrative
I think State of origen is a bit exagerrated in importance. How much did having Walz on the ticket help Harris in the Midwest?
Trump is New York to the core yet wins in Alabama, and does anyone realistically think Buttigeig could flip Indiana or Beshar flip Kentucky?
Comparing the two Trump wins:
Minnesota 2016 Clinton +1.52% 2024 Harris +4.24%
Michigan 2016 Trump +0.23% 2024 Trump +1.42%
Pennsylvania 2016 Trump +0.72% 2024 Trump +1.71%
Wisconsin 2016 Trump +0.77% 2024 Trump +0.86%
Compared with California
2016 Clinton +30.11% 2024 Harris +20.24%
Suggests that Walz did help in the rust belt states, especially his home Minnesota.
Certainly more than Harris did in either California or adjacent Nevada and Arizona.
I am not saying that there is no effect (though it does seem only significant in home state) just that it is only one consideration amongst many.
I am a big AOC fan but I think the Dems need a more centrist candidate in 2028.
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
There was a period in Q4 of last year when it appeared that Ukraine was finally being overwhelmed and their resistance was starting to crumble but, for whatever reason, the balance now seems to have swung back the other way and it is Russia that is struggling. Given that the US has provided almost nothing over this period (other than some intelligence) it appears to me from the outside that the driving forces for this are remarkable leaps in Ukraine drone technology and the loss of Starlink for the Russians. supported by a much more determined European response.
Rubio's comment that no one is winning is probably fair but if you had to pick a winner right now it wouldn't be Russia.
In training exercises in Estonia Ukraine's forces, with their drones, scored an emphatic victory over NATO troops. We have so much to learn from them and a real opportunity to jump several expensive generations of kit at no cost to us (other than paying them in some of our production, of course).
Its a vivid demonstration of what Europe needs to do to break their dependence on US kit and technology given our new more distant relationship.
Trump's frankly ridiculous response is that Ukraine has to move or make concessions to get peace. Ukraine are increasingly simply ignoring them.
The longer Ukraine ignores Trump, the more desperate Putin will become. He went all in on Trump bailing him out. His hydrocarbons industry is having its kit and its markets systematically taken down. His ability to fight and finance war is at the edge of collapse.
Hang in there, Ukraine.
Post-war, Ukraine will have a thriving defence industry supplying the rest of Europe and Canada with kit.
Time for one of my ludicrous predictions. The advent of Restore Britain will hasten Farages inevitable exit from UK politics before the next GE
It's an interesting challenge, to be sure.
The Conservatives had it easy when their rivals to the right were obviously unacceptable- NF, BNP and so on. Then Farage came along and they've not had it easy since. Fighting on two fronts is largely a losing strategy.
Labour have always had problems on their left flank, but Polanski's Greens look like the toughest rivals yet.
Now Lowe looks like he will try to insert himself between Farage and blatant fash. I don't know if he will manage it, but it will be fascinating seeing him try and even more fascinating seeing Farage's response.
Certainly interesting. If Lowe peels off even 3 to 4% of that Reform score then even a modest Lab or Tory (or both) recovery will wreck Farages chance of being PM Reform 29 % - Farage PM likely Reform 23% - 100 seats or fewer We are in a bubble and have been since May. Bubbles tend to burst eventually. Especially when inflated by those who often do not vote and/or have no long term ingrained loyalty
Thus i think Farage goes before the great deflation
Has Lowelife got any fucking money to run a GE campaign? To torpedo the Fukkers, Reprisal or whatever the fuck it's called would need to run in 100s of seats.
On last nights Restore Britain launch and prospects. Rupert is way too radical to win a GE but hes exactly radical enough to hoover up the genuine 'last chance salooners' from Reform (and Tories of that mind not convinced by Farage) who are sick of the 'we will just rerun Boris cabinet' approach. And he will hold Yarmouth at a canter. Reform at 29% are winning. Reform at, say, 24% start falling just short everywhere.
Rupert can win his own constituency easily but won't have any serious impact anywhere else, which must be a relief for Farage. It'll be interesting to see if Nigel bothers to put up a candidate against him in Great Yarmouth.
Time for one of my ludicrous predictions. The advent of Restore Britain will hasten Farages inevitable exit from UK politics before the next GE
It's an interesting challenge, to be sure.
The Conservatives had it easy when their rivals to the right were obviously unacceptable- NF, BNP and so on. Then Farage came along and they've not had it easy since. Fighting on two fronts is largely a losing strategy.
Labour have always had problems on their left flank, but Polanski's Greens look like the toughest rivals yet.
Now Lowe looks like he will try to insert himself between Farage and blatant fash. I don't know if he will manage it, but it will be fascinating seeing him try and even more fascinating seeing Farage's response.
Certainly interesting. If Lowe peels off even 3 to 4% of that Reform score then even a modest Lab or Tory (or both) recovery will wreck Farages chance of being PM Reform 29 % - Farage PM likely Reform 23% - 100 seats or fewer We are in a bubble and have been since May. Bubbles tend to burst eventually. Especially when inflated by those who often do not vote and/or have no long term ingrained loyalty
Thus i think Farage goes before the great deflation
Has Lowelife got any fucking money to run a GE campaign? To torpedo the Fukkers, Reprisal or whatever the fuck it's called would need to run in 100s of seats.
He will probably get enough to run a fair few. Habibs and Advances money is coming in to start with. 40,000 members
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
There was a period in Q4 of last year when it appeared that Ukraine was finally being overwhelmed and their resistance was starting to crumble but, for whatever reason, the balance now seems to have swung back the other way and it is Russia that is struggling. Given that the US has provided almost nothing over this period (other than some intelligence) it appears to me from the outside that the driving forces for this are remarkable leaps in Ukraine drone technology and the loss of Starlink for the Russians. supported by a much more determined European response.
Rubio's comment that no one is winning is probably fair but if you had to pick a winner right now it wouldn't be Russia.
In training exercises in Estonia Ukraine's forces, with their drones, scored an emphatic victory over NATO troops. We have so much to learn from them and a real opportunity to jump several expensive generations of kit at no cost to us (other than paying them in some of our production, of course).
Its a vivid demonstration of what Europe needs to do to break their dependence on US kit and technology given our new more distant relationship.
Trump's frankly ridiculous response is that Ukraine has to move or make concessions to get peace. Ukraine are increasingly simply ignoring them.
The longer Ukraine ignores Trump, the more desperate Putin will become. He went all in on Trump bailing him out. His hydrocarbons industry is having its kit and its markets systematically taken down. His ability to fight and finance war is at the edge of collapse.
Hang in there, Ukraine.
I don’t remember DumaAce telling us that it’ll be over before (a) Christmas
On last nights Restore Britain launch and prospects. Rupert is way too radical to win a GE but hes exactly radical enough to hoover up the genuine 'last chance salooners' from Reform (and Tories of that mind not convinced by Farage) who are sick of the 'we will just rerun Boris cabinet' approach. And he will hold Yarmouth at a canter. Reform at 29% are winning. Reform at, say, 24% start falling just short everywhere.
Rupert can win his own constituency easily but won't have any serious impact anywhere else, which must be a relief for Farage. It'll be interesting to see if Nigel bothers to put up a candidate against him in Great Yarmouth.
Seats are likely to be won on buttons %. He will have an effect without winning anything outside Yarmouth.
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
There was a period in Q4 of last year when it appeared that Ukraine was finally being overwhelmed and their resistance was starting to crumble but, for whatever reason, the balance now seems to have swung back the other way and it is Russia that is struggling. Given that the US has provided almost nothing over this period (other than some intelligence) it appears to me from the outside that the driving forces for this are remarkable leaps in Ukraine drone technology and the loss of Starlink for the Russians. supported by a much more determined European response.
Rubio's comment that no one is winning is probably fair but if you had to pick a winner right now it wouldn't be Russia.
In training exercises in Estonia Ukraine's forces, with their drones, scored an emphatic victory over NATO troops. We have so much to learn from them and a real opportunity to jump several expensive generations of kit at no cost to us (other than paying them in some of our production, of course).
Its a vivid demonstration of what Europe needs to do to break their dependence on US kit and technology given our new more distant relationship.
Trump's frankly ridiculous response is that Ukraine has to move or make concessions to get peace. Ukraine are increasingly simply ignoring them.
The longer Ukraine ignores Trump, the more desperate Putin will become. He went all in on Trump bailing him out. His hydrocarbons industry is having its kit and its markets systematically taken down. His ability to fight and finance war is at the edge of collapse.
Hang in there, Ukraine.
I don’t remember DumaAce telling us that it’ll be over before (a) Christmas
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
There was a period in Q4 of last year when it appeared that Ukraine was finally being overwhelmed and their resistance was starting to crumble but, for whatever reason, the balance now seems to have swung back the other way and it is Russia that is struggling. Given that the US has provided almost nothing over this period (other than some intelligence) it appears to me from the outside that the driving forces for this are remarkable leaps in Ukraine drone technology and the loss of Starlink for the Russians. supported by a much more determined European response.
Rubio's comment that no one is winning is probably fair but if you had to pick a winner right now it wouldn't be Russia.
In training exercises in Estonia Ukraine's forces, with their drones, scored an emphatic victory over NATO troops. We have so much to learn from them and a real opportunity to jump several expensive generations of kit at no cost to us (other than paying them in some of our production, of course).
Its a vivid demonstration of what Europe needs to do to break their dependence on US kit and technology given our new more distant relationship.
Trump's frankly ridiculous response is that Ukraine has to move or make concessions to get peace. Ukraine are increasingly simply ignoring them.
The longer Ukraine ignores Trump, the more desperate Putin will become. He went all in on Trump bailing him out. His hydrocarbons industry is having its kit and its markets systematically taken down. His ability to fight and finance war is at the edge of collapse.
Hang in there, Ukraine.
Post-war, Ukraine will have a thriving defence industry supplying the rest of Europe and Canada with kit.
British defence firms should be investing in the companies making these, and licensing the technology:
Gives the Ukranians money for expansion, and places British companies in a good place for when the war finishes. Land war has changed completely in the last four years, and much doctrine of the past three decades or more is now obsolete.
I’m so pleased that Italy, like Argentina, have become a decent rugby team. They haven’t yet quite reached Argentina’s level, but they’re so far from their 6N whipping boys status of a decade ago
Big Nige has the very Trumpy quality of needing a parade of supplicants. The quaffing of the last bitter dregs of the Johnson vintage definitely damages the Fukkers becaude it corrodes their hopey-changey, none-of-the-above, anti-establishment credentials.
Time for one of my ludicrous predictions. The advent of Restore Britain will hasten Farages inevitable exit from UK politics before the next GE
It's an interesting challenge, to be sure.
The Conservatives had it easy when their rivals to the right were obviously unacceptable- NF, BNP and so on. Then Farage came along and they've not had it easy since. Fighting on two fronts is largely a losing strategy.
Labour have always had problems on their left flank, but Polanski's Greens look like the toughest rivals yet.
Now Lowe looks like he will try to insert himself between Farage and blatant fash. I don't know if he will manage it, but it will be fascinating seeing him try and even more fascinating seeing Farage's response.
Certainly interesting. If Lowe peels off even 3 to 4% of that Reform score then even a modest Lab or Tory (or both) recovery will wreck Farages chance of being PM Reform 29 % - Farage PM likely Reform 23% - 100 seats or fewer We are in a bubble and have been since May. Bubbles tend to burst eventually. Especially when inflated by those who often do not vote and/or have no long term ingrained loyalty
Thus i think Farage goes before the great deflation
Has Lowelife got any fucking money to run a GE campaign? To torpedo the Fukkers, Reprisal or whatever the fuck it's called would need to run in 100s of seats.
He has Musk and apparently Advance UK has 40 000 members, so a significant campaign is possible.
Notable that the Advance UK candidate in Gorton and Henton beat the official Reform candidate in last years Manchester Mayoral Election.
I’m so pleased that Italy, like Argentina, have become a decent rugby team. They haven’t yet quite reached Argentina’s level, but they’re so far from their 6N whipping boys status of a decade ago
Can't argue with that.
Question is, how many were born in Italy?
Some of the qualifications for eligibility in Rugby have sadly destroyed some nations, whilst massively benefiting others
I’m so pleased that Italy, like Argentina, have become a decent rugby team. They haven’t yet quite reached Argentina’s level, but they’re so far from their 6N whipping boys status of a decade ago
Arguably Italy were better a decade ago. They've taken the wooden spoon continuously from 2016 to 2023, their longest streak.
Big Nige has the very Trumpy quality of needing a parade of supplicants. The quaffing of the last bitter dregs of the Johnson vintage definitely damages the Fukkers becaude it corrodes their hopey-changey, none-of-the-above, anti-establishment credentials.
Which is why a chunk will piss straight off to Restore. Therss nothing remotely popular about Nigel or Reform to hold people in place who've only been on board a few months. Emporers New Insurgency
I’m so pleased that Italy, like Argentina, have become a decent rugby team. They haven’t yet quite reached Argentina’s level, but they’re so far from their 6N whipping boys status of a decade ago
Just need Wales now. Free tickets being given away.
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
There was a period in Q4 of last year when it appeared that Ukraine was finally being overwhelmed and their resistance was starting to crumble but, for whatever reason, the balance now seems to have swung back the other way and it is Russia that is struggling. Given that the US has provided almost nothing over this period (other than some intelligence) it appears to me from the outside that the driving forces for this are remarkable leaps in Ukraine drone technology and the loss of Starlink for the Russians. supported by a much more determined European response.
Rubio's comment that no one is winning is probably fair but if you had to pick a winner right now it wouldn't be Russia.
In training exercises in Estonia Ukraine's forces, with their drones, scored an emphatic victory over NATO troops. We have so much to learn from them and a real opportunity to jump several expensive generations of kit at no cost to us (other than paying them in some of our production, of course).
Its a vivid demonstration of what Europe needs to do to break their dependence on US kit and technology given our new more distant relationship.
Trump's frankly ridiculous response is that Ukraine has to move or make concessions to get peace. Ukraine are increasingly simply ignoring them.
The longer Ukraine ignores Trump, the more desperate Putin will become. He went all in on Trump bailing him out. His hydrocarbons industry is having its kit and its markets systematically taken down. His ability to fight and finance war is at the edge of collapse.
Hang in there, Ukraine.
Post-war, Ukraine will have a thriving defence industry supplying the rest of Europe and Canada with kit.
British defence firms should be investing in the companies making these, and licensing the technology:
Gives the Ukranians money for expansion, and places British companies in a good place for when the war finishes. Land war has changed completely in the last four years, and much doctrine of the past three decades or more is now obsolete.
Great opportunity opening up.
Thanks to Starmer
However after 10 years of Brexit delivered destruction he has to go bolder harder faster.
Sadly our Country has been put back a generation by Brexit
Those responsible are as reasonable and reprehensible as Mandelson and Epstein
They may have buggered hundreds, Brexit buggered a Nation
I’m so pleased that Italy, like Argentina, have become a decent rugby team. They haven’t yet quite reached Argentina’s level, but they’re so far from their 6N whipping boys status of a decade ago
Can't argue with that.
Question is, how many were born in Italy?
Some of the qualifications for eligibility in Rugby have sadly destroyed some nations, whilst massively benefiting others
You're not questioning Lynaghetti's inclusion are you?
What about O'Izuchukwu and FitzEdogbo for Ireland?
I don't see Advance, Reclaim or Renew having any impact on the 2029 election.
Without Farage, they will get little attention, and even fewer votes.
It was interesting to see a few headers back that Farage polls less well than his party.
In a way I can see why. I know quite a lot of people that say they don't like Farage much, but will vote Reform because they hate the big two. It is a paradox because without Farage, there is no Reform. Strange, but I think explainable
I’m so pleased that Italy, like Argentina, have become a decent rugby team. They haven’t yet quite reached Argentina’s level, but they’re so far from their 6N whipping boys status of a decade ago
Despite this, I would never have predicted them to be 5 points up against Ireland at halftime
I don't see Advance, Reclaim or Renew having any impact on the 2029 election.
Without Farage, they will get little attention, and even fewer votes.
It was interesting to see a few headers back that Farage polls less well than his party.
In a way I can see why. I know quite a lot of people that say they don't like Farage much, but will vote Reform because they hate the big two. It is a paradox because without Farage, there is no Reform. Strange, but I think explainable
Possibly explains the Reform to Green switchers too.
The odds on her being the Democrat candidate is 11.5 (9%) on Betfair. Second favourite behind Newsom.
I think the dream ticket for the Dems is Newsom with AOC as his VP. Newsom provides the look (white, male, tall, presidential) and a strategy that can widen the appeal beyond the core. AOC provides the fire and energy that will get out the core vote. Width and depth.
Dream ticket for Vance you mean! An arrogant rich California Democrat as their nominee with a far left woke Israel hater from New York as his running mate is guaranteed to turn middle America off.
Buttigieg or Shapiro or Beshear might worry Vance and the GOP, Newsom and AOC would not
Almost anyone could beat Vance, assuming fair election in 2028.
Perhaps if Trump's approval ratings continue to be in the toilet but Vance is clever and ruthless and grew up in poverty in Ohio, which was the ultimate swing state until 2020 and got himself to the 2nd most powerful job in the land by cunning and hard work.
Gavin Newsom's father meanwhile was attorney for Getty Oil and AOC's father was an architect and neither have shown any ability to connect with swing voters in the rustbelt, they have only been elected in safe Democrat states.
AOC has dropped her pronouns and has adopted Bernie Sanders priorities, in particular, cost of living.
A 2025 AtlasIntel poll found her to be one of only three major political leaders with a net positive image, with 46% of Americans viewing her positively compared to 44% negatively.
AOC recently toured Arizona and Nevada with Bernie Sanders, where they attracted record-breaking crowds (including 34,000 in Denver, Colorado).
A July 2025 poll of "Biden skippers"—voters in battleground states who sat out the 2024 election—found that 78% had a favorable view of Bernie Sanders, the highest of any Democratic-aligned figure.
I'm not suggesting her for President - too young, short, woman, brown - but as a VP complement to Newsom (tall, white, male, presidential). It's a ticket that reaches Bernie Sanders supporters. AOC is young enough to bide her time as VP for two terms if necessary.
It's a strong combination.
I think AOC would be a good VP candidate although she may choose to bide her time so that she can run either in 2032/2036 when she would be (I think) 45-50.
AOC + Newsom would be a disaster - reinforces the coastal state narrative
I think State of origen is a bit exagerrated in importance. How much did having Walz on the ticket help Harris in the Midwest?
Trump is New York to the core yet wins in Alabama, and does anyone realistically think Buttigeig could flip Indiana or Beshar flip Kentucky?
Comparing the two Trump wins:
Minnesota 2016 Clinton +1.52% 2024 Harris +4.24%
Michigan 2016 Trump +0.23% 2024 Trump +1.42%
Pennsylvania 2016 Trump +0.72% 2024 Trump +1.71%
Wisconsin 2016 Trump +0.77% 2024 Trump +0.86%
Compared with California
2016 Clinton +30.11% 2024 Harris +20.24%
Suggests that Walz did help in the rust belt states, especially his home Minnesota.
Certainly more than Harris did in either California or adjacent Nevada and Arizona.
I am not saying that there is no effect (though it does seem only significant in home state) just that it is only one consideration amongst many.
I am a big AOC fan but I think the Dems need a more centrist candidate in 2028.
A candidate who has also proved they can win in the Midwest or the South or Pennsylvania or grew up there eg Buttigieg, Shapiro or Beshear as that is where most of the swing states are.
Since JFK every winning Dem presidential candidate but 1 was a governor or Senator from a southern state eg LBJ, Carter and Bill Clinton or grew up in in the rustbelt eg Biden.
Obama was the only exception but 2008 was a year of deep recession and post Iraq War and any Democrat would have won as voters were fed up with the Bush Cheney administration (and Obama's mother grew up in Kansas of course)
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
There was a period in Q4 of last year when it appeared that Ukraine was finally being overwhelmed and their resistance was starting to crumble but, for whatever reason, the balance now seems to have swung back the other way and it is Russia that is struggling. Given that the US has provided almost nothing over this period (other than some intelligence) it appears to me from the outside that the driving forces for this are remarkable leaps in Ukraine drone technology and the loss of Starlink for the Russians. supported by a much more determined European response.
Rubio's comment that no one is winning is probably fair but if you had to pick a winner right now it wouldn't be Russia.
In training exercises in Estonia Ukraine's forces, with their drones, scored an emphatic victory over NATO troops. We have so much to learn from them and a real opportunity to jump several expensive generations of kit at no cost to us (other than paying them in some of our production, of course).
Its a vivid demonstration of what Europe needs to do to break their dependence on US kit and technology given our new more distant relationship.
Trump's frankly ridiculous response is that Ukraine has to move or make concessions to get peace. Ukraine are increasingly simply ignoring them.
The longer Ukraine ignores Trump, the more desperate Putin will become. He went all in on Trump bailing him out. His hydrocarbons industry is having its kit and its markets systematically taken down. His ability to fight and finance war is at the edge of collapse.
Hang in there, Ukraine.
Post-war, Ukraine will have a thriving defence industry supplying the rest of Europe and Canada with kit.
British defence firms should be investing in the companies making these, and licensing the technology:
Gives the Ukranians money for expansion, and places British companies in a good place for when the war finishes. Land war has changed completely in the last four years, and much doctrine of the past three decades or more is now obsolete.
Great opportunity opening up.
Thanks to Starmer
However after 10 years of Brexit delivered destruction he has to go bolder harder faster.
Sadly our Country has been put back a generation by Brexit
Those responsible are as reasonable and reprehensible as Mandelson and Epstein
They may have buggered hundreds, Brexit buggered a Nation
One of the very few things that can be laid at the door of Brexit is the debasement of hyperbole...by Remainers.
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
There was a period in Q4 of last year when it appeared that Ukraine was finally being overwhelmed and their resistance was starting to crumble but, for whatever reason, the balance now seems to have swung back the other way and it is Russia that is struggling. Given that the US has provided almost nothing over this period (other than some intelligence) it appears to me from the outside that the driving forces for this are remarkable leaps in Ukraine drone technology and the loss of Starlink for the Russians. supported by a much more determined European response.
Rubio's comment that no one is winning is probably fair but if you had to pick a winner right now it wouldn't be Russia.
In training exercises in Estonia Ukraine's forces, with their drones, scored an emphatic victory over NATO troops. We have so much to learn from them and a real opportunity to jump several expensive generations of kit at no cost to us (other than paying them in some of our production, of course).
Its a vivid demonstration of what Europe needs to do to break their dependence on US kit and technology given our new more distant relationship.
Trump's frankly ridiculous response is that Ukraine has to move or make concessions to get peace. Ukraine are increasingly simply ignoring them.
The longer Ukraine ignores Trump, the more desperate Putin will become. He went all in on Trump bailing him out. His hydrocarbons industry is having its kit and its markets systematically taken down. His ability to fight and finance war is at the edge of collapse.
Hang in there, Ukraine.
Post-war, Ukraine will have a thriving defence industry supplying the rest of Europe and Canada with kit.
British defence firms should be investing in the companies making these, and licensing the technology:
Gives the Ukranians money for expansion, and places British companies in a good place for when the war finishes. Land war has changed completely in the last four years, and much doctrine of the past three decades or more is now obsolete.
Great opportunity opening up.
Thanks to Starmer
However after 10 years of Brexit delivered destruction he has to go bolder harder faster.
Sadly our Country has been put back a generation by Brexit
Those responsible are as reasonable and reprehensible as Mandelson and Epstein
They may have buggered hundreds, Brexit buggered a Nation
One of the very few things that can be laid at the door of Brexit is the debasement of hyperbole...by Remainers.
They may indeed be the greatest threat we have ever faced!
Off topic, but some here may find some hope in this:
Good News: Congress is beginning to try to correct some Musk/Trump errors, in order to rebuild our defenses.
Bipartisan majorities in Congress are recognizing the need for the USAGM and other “soft power” outlets. An appropriations bill that passed in the House last week includes $643 million for the USAGM, down from $867 million last year but more than four times the amount that Trump asked for. The National Endowment for Democracy, which supports dissidents in countries including Venezuela and Iran, will receive $315 million, the same as last year, despite Trump’s attempts to eliminate it altogether.
Assuming the administration spends the money appropriated by Congress — which is no sure thing anymore — U.S. soft power institutions will survive DOGE’s reckless assault. But you can’t rebuild overnight capacities that took decades to develop.
(Links omitted. The USAGM is the United States Agency for Global Media.)
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
There was a period in Q4 of last year when it appeared that Ukraine was finally being overwhelmed and their resistance was starting to crumble but, for whatever reason, the balance now seems to have swung back the other way and it is Russia that is struggling. Given that the US has provided almost nothing over this period (other than some intelligence) it appears to me from the outside that the driving forces for this are remarkable leaps in Ukraine drone technology and the loss of Starlink for the Russians. supported by a much more determined European response.
Rubio's comment that no one is winning is probably fair but if you had to pick a winner right now it wouldn't be Russia.
In training exercises in Estonia Ukraine's forces, with their drones, scored an emphatic victory over NATO troops. We have so much to learn from them and a real opportunity to jump several expensive generations of kit at no cost to us (other than paying them in some of our production, of course).
Its a vivid demonstration of what Europe needs to do to break their dependence on US kit and technology given our new more distant relationship.
Trump's frankly ridiculous response is that Ukraine has to move or make concessions to get peace. Ukraine are increasingly simply ignoring them.
The longer Ukraine ignores Trump, the more desperate Putin will become. He went all in on Trump bailing him out. His hydrocarbons industry is having its kit and its markets systematically taken down. His ability to fight and finance war is at the edge of collapse.
Hang in there, Ukraine.
Post-war, Ukraine will have a thriving defence industry supplying the rest of Europe and Canada with kit.
I’m so pleased that Italy, like Argentina, have become a decent rugby team. They haven’t yet quite reached Argentina’s level, but they’re so far from their 6N whipping boys status of a decade ago
Can't argue with that.
Question is, how many were born in Italy?
Some of the qualifications for eligibility in Rugby have sadly destroyed some nations, whilst massively benefiting others
What about O'Izuchukwu and FitzEdogbo for Ireland?
The odds on her being the Democrat candidate is 11.5 (9%) on Betfair. Second favourite behind Newsom.
I think the dream ticket for the Dems is Newsom with AOC as his VP. Newsom provides the look (white, male, tall, presidential) and a strategy that can widen the appeal beyond the core. AOC provides the fire and energy that will get out the core vote. Width and depth.
Dream ticket for Vance you mean! An arrogant rich California Democrat as their nominee with a far left woke Israel hater from New York as his running mate is guaranteed to turn middle America off.
Buttigieg or Shapiro or Beshear might worry Vance and the GOP, Newsom and AOC would not
Almost anyone could beat Vance, assuming fair election in 2028.
Perhaps if Trump's approval ratings continue to be in the toilet but Vance is clever and ruthless and grew up in poverty in Ohio, which was the ultimate swing state until 2020 and got himself to the 2nd most powerful job in the land by cunning and hard work.
Gavin Newsom's father meanwhile was attorney for Getty Oil and AOC's father was an architect and neither have shown any ability to connect with swing voters in the rustbelt, they have only been elected in safe Democrat states.
AOC has dropped her pronouns and has adopted Bernie Sanders priorities, in particular, cost of living.
A 2025 AtlasIntel poll found her to be one of only three major political leaders with a net positive image, with 46% of Americans viewing her positively compared to 44% negatively.
AOC recently toured Arizona and Nevada with Bernie Sanders, where they attracted record-breaking crowds (including 34,000 in Denver, Colorado).
A July 2025 poll of "Biden skippers"—voters in battleground states who sat out the 2024 election—found that 78% had a favorable view of Bernie Sanders, the highest of any Democratic-aligned figure.
I'm not suggesting her for President - too young, short, woman, brown - but as a VP complement to Newsom (tall, white, male, presidential). It's a ticket that reaches Bernie Sanders supporters. AOC is young enough to bide her time as VP for two terms if necessary.
It's a strong combination.
I think AOC would be a good VP candidate although she may choose to bide her time so that she can run either in 2032/2036 when she would be (I think) 45-50.
AOC + Newsom would be a disaster - reinforces the coastal state narrative
I think State of origen is a bit exagerrated in importance. How much did having Walz on the ticket help Harris in the Midwest?
Trump is New York to the core yet wins in Alabama, and does anyone realistically think Buttigeig could flip Indiana or Beshar flip Kentucky?
Comparing the two Trump wins:
Minnesota 2016 Clinton +1.52% 2024 Harris +4.24%
Michigan 2016 Trump +0.23% 2024 Trump +1.42%
Pennsylvania 2016 Trump +0.72% 2024 Trump +1.71%
Wisconsin 2016 Trump +0.77% 2024 Trump +0.86%
Compared with California
2016 Clinton +30.11% 2024 Harris +20.24%
Suggests that Walz did help in the rust belt states, especially his home Minnesota.
Certainly more than Harris did in either California or adjacent Nevada and Arizona.
I am not saying that there is no effect (though it does seem only significant in home state) just that it is only one consideration amongst many.
I am a big AOC fan but I think the Dems need a more centrist candidate in 2028.
A candidate who has also proved they can win in the Midwest or the South or Pennsylvania or grew up there eg Buttigieg, Shapiro or Beshear as that is where most of the swing states are.
Since JFK every winning Dem presidential candidate but 1 was a governor or Senator from a southern state eg LBJ, Carter and Bill Clinton or grew up in in the rustbelt eg Biden.
Obama was the only exception but 2008 was a year of deep recession and post Iraq War and any Democrat would have won as voters were fed up with the Bush Cheney administration (and Obama's mother grew up in Kansas of course)
Obama was also a Senator from Illinois which while not a swing state is also in the Midwest, not New York, California or Massachusetts or another elite coastal state
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
There was a period in Q4 of last year when it appeared that Ukraine was finally being overwhelmed and their resistance was starting to crumble but, for whatever reason, the balance now seems to have swung back the other way and it is Russia that is struggling. Given that the US has provided almost nothing over this period (other than some intelligence) it appears to me from the outside that the driving forces for this are remarkable leaps in Ukraine drone technology and the loss of Starlink for the Russians. supported by a much more determined European response.
Rubio's comment that no one is winning is probably fair but if you had to pick a winner right now it wouldn't be Russia.
In training exercises in Estonia Ukraine's forces, with their drones, scored an emphatic victory over NATO troops. We have so much to learn from them and a real opportunity to jump several expensive generations of kit at no cost to us (other than paying them in some of our production, of course).
Its a vivid demonstration of what Europe needs to do to break their dependence on US kit and technology given our new more distant relationship.
Trump's frankly ridiculous response is that Ukraine has to move or make concessions to get peace. Ukraine are increasingly simply ignoring them.
The longer Ukraine ignores Trump, the more desperate Putin will become. He went all in on Trump bailing him out. His hydrocarbons industry is having its kit and its markets systematically taken down. His ability to fight and finance war is at the edge of collapse.
Hang in there, Ukraine.
Post-war, Ukraine will have a thriving defence industry supplying the rest of Europe and Canada with kit.
British defence firms should be investing in the companies making these, and licensing the technology:
Gives the Ukranians money for expansion, and places British companies in a good place for when the war finishes. Land war has changed completely in the last four years, and much doctrine of the past three decades or more is now obsolete.
Great opportunity opening up.
Thanks to Starmer
However after 10 years of Brexit delivered destruction he has to go bolder harder faster.
Sadly our Country has been put back a generation by Brexit
Those responsible are as reasonable and reprehensible as Mandelson and Epstein
They may have buggered hundreds, Brexit buggered a Nation
Comparing Brexit to Mandelson and Epstein is a new low for you
The odds on her being the Democrat candidate is 11.5 (9%) on Betfair. Second favourite behind Newsom.
I think the dream ticket for the Dems is Newsom with AOC as his VP. Newsom provides the look (white, male, tall, presidential) and a strategy that can widen the appeal beyond the core. AOC provides the fire and energy that will get out the core vote. Width and depth.
Dream ticket for Vance you mean! An arrogant rich California Democrat as their nominee with a far left woke Israel hater from New York as his running mate is guaranteed to turn middle America off.
Buttigieg or Shapiro or Beshear might worry Vance and the GOP, Newsom and AOC would not
Almost anyone could beat Vance, assuming fair election in 2028.
Perhaps if Trump's approval ratings continue to be in the toilet but Vance is clever and ruthless and grew up in poverty in Ohio, which was the ultimate swing state until 2020 and got himself to the 2nd most powerful job in the land by cunning and hard work.
Gavin Newsom's father meanwhile was attorney for Getty Oil and AOC's father was an architect and neither have shown any ability to connect with swing voters in the rustbelt, they have only been elected in safe Democrat states.
AOC has dropped her pronouns and has adopted Bernie Sanders priorities, in particular, cost of living.
A 2025 AtlasIntel poll found her to be one of only three major political leaders with a net positive image, with 46% of Americans viewing her positively compared to 44% negatively.
AOC recently toured Arizona and Nevada with Bernie Sanders, where they attracted record-breaking crowds (including 34,000 in Denver, Colorado).
A July 2025 poll of "Biden skippers"—voters in battleground states who sat out the 2024 election—found that 78% had a favorable view of Bernie Sanders, the highest of any Democratic-aligned figure.
I'm not suggesting her for President - too young, short, woman, brown - but as a VP complement to Newsom (tall, white, male, presidential). It's a ticket that reaches Bernie Sanders supporters. AOC is young enough to bide her time as VP for two terms if necessary.
It's a strong combination.
I think AOC would be a good VP candidate although she may choose to bide her time so that she can run either in 2032/2036 when she would be (I think) 45-50.
AOC + Newsom would be a disaster - reinforces the coastal state narrative
I think State of origen is a bit exagerrated in importance. How much did having Walz on the ticket help Harris in the Midwest?
Trump is New York to the core yet wins in Alabama, and does anyone realistically think Buttigeig could flip Indiana or Beshar flip Kentucky?
Comparing the two Trump wins:
Minnesota 2016 Clinton +1.52% 2024 Harris +4.24%
Michigan 2016 Trump +0.23% 2024 Trump +1.42%
Pennsylvania 2016 Trump +0.72% 2024 Trump +1.71%
Wisconsin 2016 Trump +0.77% 2024 Trump +0.86%
Compared with California
2016 Clinton +30.11% 2024 Harris +20.24%
Suggests that Walz did help in the rust belt states, especially his home Minnesota.
Certainly more than Harris did in either California or adjacent Nevada and Arizona.
I am not saying that there is no effect (though it does seem only significant in home state) just that it is only one consideration amongst many.
I am a big AOC fan but I think the Dems need a more centrist candidate in 2028.
Charisma matters much more than policy in presidential elections, especially in America, whose population is even less interested in the nuts and bolts of government and its associated tradeoffs than our own Great Unwashed.
That's especially true on the left, whose main policies have been utterly discredited since the collapse of communism. But it's also true on the right, as the completely vacuous but somehow compelling Trump has shown.
So, as I've said on here before, their main hope is to get a charismatic bullshitter who will inspire their marginal voters (especially the young and inexperienced), and then let them down completely after the election.
The odds on her being the Democrat candidate is 11.5 (9%) on Betfair. Second favourite behind Newsom.
I think the dream ticket for the Dems is Newsom with AOC as his VP. Newsom provides the look (white, male, tall, presidential) and a strategy that can widen the appeal beyond the core. AOC provides the fire and energy that will get out the core vote. Width and depth.
Dream ticket for Vance you mean! An arrogant rich California Democrat as their nominee with a far left woke Israel hater from New York as his running mate is guaranteed to turn middle America off.
Buttigieg or Shapiro or Beshear might worry Vance and the GOP, Newsom and AOC would not
Almost anyone could beat Vance, assuming fair election in 2028.
Perhaps if Trump's approval ratings continue to be in the toilet but Vance is clever and ruthless and grew up in poverty in Ohio, which was the ultimate swing state until 2020 and got himself to the 2nd most powerful job in the land by cunning and hard work.
Gavin Newsom's father meanwhile was attorney for Getty Oil and AOC's father was an architect and neither have shown any ability to connect with swing voters in the rustbelt, they have only been elected in safe Democrat states.
AOC has dropped her pronouns and has adopted Bernie Sanders priorities, in particular, cost of living.
A 2025 AtlasIntel poll found her to be one of only three major political leaders with a net positive image, with 46% of Americans viewing her positively compared to 44% negatively.
AOC recently toured Arizona and Nevada with Bernie Sanders, where they attracted record-breaking crowds (including 34,000 in Denver, Colorado).
A July 2025 poll of "Biden skippers"—voters in battleground states who sat out the 2024 election—found that 78% had a favorable view of Bernie Sanders, the highest of any Democratic-aligned figure.
I'm not suggesting her for President - too young, short, woman, brown - but as a VP complement to Newsom (tall, white, male, presidential). It's a ticket that reaches Bernie Sanders supporters. AOC is young enough to bide her time as VP for two terms if necessary.
It's a strong combination.
I think AOC would be a good VP candidate although she may choose to bide her time so that she can run either in 2032/2036 when she would be (I think) 45-50.
AOC + Newsom would be a disaster - reinforces the coastal state narrative
I think State of origen is a bit exagerrated in importance. How much did having Walz on the ticket help Harris in the Midwest?
Trump is New York to the core yet wins in Alabama, and does anyone realistically think Buttigeig could flip Indiana or Beshar flip Kentucky?
Comparing the two Trump wins:
Minnesota 2016 Clinton +1.52% 2024 Harris +4.24%
Michigan 2016 Trump +0.23% 2024 Trump +1.42%
Pennsylvania 2016 Trump +0.72% 2024 Trump +1.71%
Wisconsin 2016 Trump +0.77% 2024 Trump +0.86%
Compared with California
2016 Clinton +30.11% 2024 Harris +20.24%
Suggests that Walz did help in the rust belt states, especially his home Minnesota.
Certainly more than Harris did in either California or adjacent Nevada and Arizona.
I am not saying that there is no effect (though it does seem only significant in home state) just that it is only one consideration amongst many.
I am a big AOC fan but I think the Dems need a more centrist candidate in 2028.
Charisma matters much more than policy in presidential elections, especially in America, whose population is even less interested in the nuts and bolts of government and its associated tradeoffs than our own Great Unwashed.
That's especially true on the left, whose main policies have been utterly discredited since the collapse of communism. But it's also true on the right, as the completely vacuous but somehow compelling Trump has shown.
So, as I've said on here before, their main hope is to get a charismatic bullshitter who will inspire their marginal voters (especially the young and inexperienced), and then let them down completely after the election.
Of the leading candidates Buttigeig always comes across well with charisma.
Not sure America is ready for a gay president yet.
The odds on her being the Democrat candidate is 11.5 (9%) on Betfair. Second favourite behind Newsom.
I think the dream ticket for the Dems is Newsom with AOC as his VP. Newsom provides the look (white, male, tall, presidential) and a strategy that can widen the appeal beyond the core. AOC provides the fire and energy that will get out the core vote. Width and depth.
Dream ticket for Vance you mean! An arrogant rich California Democrat as their nominee with a far left woke Israel hater from New York as his running mate is guaranteed to turn middle America off.
Buttigieg or Shapiro or Beshear might worry Vance and the GOP, Newsom and AOC would not
Almost anyone could beat Vance, assuming fair election in 2028.
Perhaps if Trump's approval ratings continue to be in the toilet but Vance is clever and ruthless and grew up in poverty in Ohio, which was the ultimate swing state until 2020 and got himself to the 2nd most powerful job in the land by cunning and hard work.
Gavin Newsom's father meanwhile was attorney for Getty Oil and AOC's father was an architect and neither have shown any ability to connect with swing voters in the rustbelt, they have only been elected in safe Democrat states.
AOC has dropped her pronouns and has adopted Bernie Sanders priorities, in particular, cost of living.
A 2025 AtlasIntel poll found her to be one of only three major political leaders with a net positive image, with 46% of Americans viewing her positively compared to 44% negatively.
AOC recently toured Arizona and Nevada with Bernie Sanders, where they attracted record-breaking crowds (including 34,000 in Denver, Colorado).
A July 2025 poll of "Biden skippers"—voters in battleground states who sat out the 2024 election—found that 78% had a favorable view of Bernie Sanders, the highest of any Democratic-aligned figure.
I'm not suggesting her for President - too young, short, woman, brown - but as a VP complement to Newsom (tall, white, male, presidential). It's a ticket that reaches Bernie Sanders supporters. AOC is young enough to bide her time as VP for two terms if necessary.
It's a strong combination.
I think AOC would be a good VP candidate although she may choose to bide her time so that she can run either in 2032/2036 when she would be (I think) 45-50.
AOC + Newsom would be a disaster - reinforces the coastal state narrative
I think State of origen is a bit exagerrated in importance. How much did having Walz on the ticket help Harris in the Midwest?
Trump is New York to the core yet wins in Alabama, and does anyone realistically think Buttigeig could flip Indiana or Beshar flip Kentucky?
Comparing the two Trump wins:
Minnesota 2016 Clinton +1.52% 2024 Harris +4.24%
Michigan 2016 Trump +0.23% 2024 Trump +1.42%
Pennsylvania 2016 Trump +0.72% 2024 Trump +1.71%
Wisconsin 2016 Trump +0.77% 2024 Trump +0.86%
Compared with California
2016 Clinton +30.11% 2024 Harris +20.24%
Suggests that Walz did help in the rust belt states, especially his home Minnesota.
Certainly more than Harris did in either California or adjacent Nevada and Arizona.
I am not saying that there is no effect (though it does seem only significant in home state) just that it is only one consideration amongst many.
I am a big AOC fan but I think the Dems need a more centrist candidate in 2028.
Charisma matters much more than policy in presidential elections, especially in America, whose population is even less interested in the nuts and bolts of government and its associated tradeoffs than our own Great Unwashed.
That's especially true on the left, whose main policies have been utterly discredited since the collapse of communism. But it's also true on the right, as the completely vacuous but somehow compelling Trump has shown.
So, as I've said on here before, their main hope is to get a charismatic bullshitter who will inspire their marginal voters (especially the young and inexperienced), and then let them down completely after the election.
Of the leading candidates Buttigeig always comes across well with charisma.
Not sure America is ready for a gay president yet.
I suggest Andrew's two daughters would be well advised, for the moment at least, to concentrate on their families, their jobs and maybe their charity work rather than being their parent's daughters. In other words, live their own lives. So far as I have read the only contact they have had with Epstein and his 'mob' was at the behest of their mother who doesn't strike me as being a desirablerole model.
The after-the-colon names on the Star Trek movies are below (captain actors in CAPITALS)
SHATNER The motion picture - The wrath of khan - The search for spock - The voyage home - The final frontier - The undiscovered country -
STEWART - Generations - First contact - Insurrections - Nemesis -
PINE - Into darkness - Beyond -
Next time you do a "wrath of khan" reference, you may wish to see how many you can fit in 😎
The search for spock is ongoing as Reform peer into darkness and beyond as they search for the candidate that will save generations of Londoners from the wrath of khan. But it’s not clear that Labour has reached its final frontier and London is ready to begin the voyage home to the undiscovered country that is Reform’s vision for Britain.
Reform remains supremely confident of victory, but hubris always leads to nemesis once first contact with the voters is achieved. More excitable bloggers pine for insurrections if Labour “steals” the election, while Rory Stewart leans back and gets ready to watch the motion picture.
The only thing worse than Reform losing will be them winning: then we’ll all be Shatner-ed.
I see Marco Rubio is playing the good cop to Vance's bad cop routine on Europe.
Not working, actions speak louder than words.
There is a very good thread on that here. It's essentially self serving (for nomination positioning) and means next to nothing in terms of actual administration policy.
There will be people who are understandably desperate to hear this, but it's important to be clear-eyed about Rubio himself and what the Trump administration is doing. 🧵 https://x.com/ruth_deyermond/status/2022654839550021959
Rutte, of course, will grasp it like a drowning man seizing a rotten branch. Starmer too, perhaps ?
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
There was a period in Q4 of last year when it appeared that Ukraine was finally being overwhelmed and their resistance was starting to crumble but, for whatever reason, the balance now seems to have swung back the other way and it is Russia that is struggling. Given that the US has provided almost nothing over this period (other than some intelligence) it appears to me from the outside that the driving forces for this are remarkable leaps in Ukraine drone technology and the loss of Starlink for the Russians. supported by a much more determined European response.
Rubio's comment that no one is winning is probably fair but if you had to pick a winner right now it wouldn't be Russia.
In training exercises in Estonia Ukraine's forces, with their drones, scored an emphatic victory over NATO troops. We have so much to learn from them and a real opportunity to jump several expensive generations of kit at no cost to us (other than paying them in some of our production, of course).
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
I think Starmer's big idea is to sail HMS Prince of Wales on a week long cruise around Iceland.
Err, that's it.
It makes more sense than spending an entire year sending it to fucking Australia. The North Atlantic should be the RN's home ground.
Home sea?
Home ocean sounds a bit gay
That reminds me of this Brasseye skit on the Navy!
They can't swim, they nudge each other whilst shooting. They muck about.....
And Gina McKee looking fooking gorgeous
Where is Chris Morris these days? He’s badly needed….
Can’t image any of his stuff getting past today’s TV executives and commissioners. Perhaps he’d find a home on Netflix.
The satire of The Day Today and Brass Eye is as relevant now as it was 30 years ago. Probably more so.
How has it come to pass that we’re now more afraid of biting satire than we were. Which is not to say he didn’t ruffle feathers at the time - which was the entire point.
The Brass Eye episode on drugs, is one of the funniest pieces of satire ever to appear on television.
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
There was a period in Q4 of last year when it appeared that Ukraine was finally being overwhelmed and their resistance was starting to crumble but, for whatever reason, the balance now seems to have swung back the other way and it is Russia that is struggling. Given that the US has provided almost nothing over this period (other than some intelligence) it appears to me from the outside that the driving forces for this are remarkable leaps in Ukraine drone technology and the loss of Starlink for the Russians. supported by a much more determined European response.
Rubio's comment that no one is winning is probably fair but if you had to pick a winner right now it wouldn't be Russia.
In training exercises in Estonia Ukraine's forces, with their drones, scored an emphatic victory over NATO troops. We have so much to learn from them and a real opportunity to jump several expensive generations of kit at no cost to us (other than paying them in some of our production, of course).
The after-the-colon names on the Star Trek movies are below (captain actors in CAPITALS)
SHATNER The motion picture - The wrath of khan - The search for spock - The voyage home - The final frontier - The undiscovered country -
STEWART - Generations - First contact - Insurrections - Nemesis -
PINE - Into darkness - Beyond -
Next time you do a "wrath of khan" reference, you may wish to see how many you can fit in 😎
The search for spock is ongoing as Reform peer into darkness and beyond as they search for the candidate that will save generations of Londoners from the wrath of khan. But it’s not clear that Labour has reached its final frontier and London is ready to begin the voyage home to the undiscovered country that is Reform’s vision for Britain.
Reform remains supremely confident of victory, but hubris always leads to nemesis once first contact with the voters is achieved. More excitable bloggers pine for insurrections if Labour “steals” the election, while Rory Stewart leans back and gets ready to watch the motion picture.
The only thing worse than Reform losing will be them winning: then we’ll all be Shatner-ed.
The odds on her being the Democrat candidate is 11.5 (9%) on Betfair. Second favourite behind Newsom.
I think the dream ticket for the Dems is Newsom with AOC as his VP. Newsom provides the look (white, male, tall, presidential) and a strategy that can widen the appeal beyond the core. AOC provides the fire and energy that will get out the core vote. Width and depth.
Dream ticket for Vance you mean! An arrogant rich California Democrat as their nominee with a far left woke Israel hater from New York as his running mate is guaranteed to turn middle America off.
Buttigieg or Shapiro or Beshear might worry Vance and the GOP, Newsom and AOC would not
Almost anyone could beat Vance, assuming fair election in 2028.
Perhaps if Trump's approval ratings continue to be in the toilet but Vance is clever and ruthless and grew up in poverty in Ohio, which was the ultimate swing state until 2020 and got himself to the 2nd most powerful job in the land by cunning and hard work.
Gavin Newsom's father meanwhile was attorney for Getty Oil and AOC's father was an architect and neither have shown any ability to connect with swing voters in the rustbelt, they have only been elected in safe Democrat states.
AOC has dropped her pronouns and has adopted Bernie Sanders priorities, in particular, cost of living.
A 2025 AtlasIntel poll found her to be one of only three major political leaders with a net positive image, with 46% of Americans viewing her positively compared to 44% negatively.
AOC recently toured Arizona and Nevada with Bernie Sanders, where they attracted record-breaking crowds (including 34,000 in Denver, Colorado).
A July 2025 poll of "Biden skippers"—voters in battleground states who sat out the 2024 election—found that 78% had a favorable view of Bernie Sanders, the highest of any Democratic-aligned figure.
I'm not suggesting her for President - too young, short, woman, brown - but as a VP complement to Newsom (tall, white, male, presidential). It's a ticket that reaches Bernie Sanders supporters. AOC is young enough to bide her time as VP for two terms if necessary.
It's a strong combination.
I think AOC would be a good VP candidate although she may choose to bide her time so that she can run either in 2032/2036 when she would be (I think) 45-50.
AOC + Newsom would be a disaster - reinforces the coastal state narrative
I think State of origen is a bit exagerrated in importance. How much did having Walz on the ticket help Harris in the Midwest?
Trump is New York to the core yet wins in Alabama, and does anyone realistically think Buttigeig could flip Indiana or Beshar flip Kentucky?
Comparing the two Trump wins:
Minnesota 2016 Clinton +1.52% 2024 Harris +4.24%
Michigan 2016 Trump +0.23% 2024 Trump +1.42%
Pennsylvania 2016 Trump +0.72% 2024 Trump +1.71%
Wisconsin 2016 Trump +0.77% 2024 Trump +0.86%
Compared with California
2016 Clinton +30.11% 2024 Harris +20.24%
Suggests that Walz did help in the rust belt states, especially his home Minnesota.
Certainly more than Harris did in either California or adjacent Nevada and Arizona.
I am not saying that there is no effect (though it does seem only significant in home state) just that it is only one consideration amongst many.
I am a big AOC fan but I think the Dems need a more centrist candidate in 2028.
The issue is more with Newsom and AOC both appealing to a core democrat audience. They need someone who can reach out to the Midwest
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
There was a period in Q4 of last year when it appeared that Ukraine was finally being overwhelmed and their resistance was starting to crumble but, for whatever reason, the balance now seems to have swung back the other way and it is Russia that is struggling. Given that the US has provided almost nothing over this period (other than some intelligence) it appears to me from the outside that the driving forces for this are remarkable leaps in Ukraine drone technology and the loss of Starlink for the Russians. supported by a much more determined European response.
Rubio's comment that no one is winning is probably fair but if you had to pick a winner right now it wouldn't be Russia.
In training exercises in Estonia Ukraine's forces, with their drones, scored an emphatic victory over NATO troops. We have so much to learn from them and a real opportunity to jump several expensive generations of kit at no cost to us (other than paying them in some of our production, of course).
Its a vivid demonstration of what Europe needs to do to break their dependence on US kit and technology given our new more distant relationship.
Trump's frankly ridiculous response is that Ukraine has to move or make concessions to get peace. Ukraine are increasingly simply ignoring them.
The longer Ukraine ignores Trump, the more desperate Putin will become. He went all in on Trump bailing him out. His hydrocarbons industry is having its kit and its markets systematically taken down. His ability to fight and finance war is at the edge of collapse.
Hang in there, Ukraine.
Post-war, Ukraine will have a thriving defence industry supplying the rest of Europe and Canada with kit.
Likely South Korea, Japan and Taiwan too.
S Korea already does have a thriving defence industry supplying Europe...
But yes, that's almost certainly true, as Ukraine has developed a lot of novel and relatively cheap kit, has a drone industry on its way to becoming independent if the Chinese supply chain, and has numerous JVs with western defence manufacturers.
The after-the-colon names on the Star Trek movies are below (captain actors in CAPITALS)
SHATNER The motion picture - The wrath of khan - The search for spock - The voyage home - The final frontier - The undiscovered country -
STEWART - Generations - First contact - Insurrections - Nemesis -
PINE - Into darkness - Beyond -
Next time you do a "wrath of khan" reference, you may wish to see how many you can fit in 😎
The search for spock is ongoing as Reform peer into darkness and beyond as they search for the candidate that will save generations of Londoners from the wrath of khan. But it’s not clear that Labour has reached its final frontier and London is ready to begin the voyage home to the undiscovered country that is Reform’s vision for Britain.
Reform remains supremely confident of victory, but hubris always leads to nemesis once first contact with the voters is achieved. More excitable bloggers pine for insurrections if Labour “steals” the election, while Rory Stewart leans back and gets ready to watch the motion picture.
The only thing worse than Reform losing will be them winning: then we’ll all be Shatner-ed.
I bought it for a holiday. Couldn’t get into it. This was about 15 years ago. We’re off to Kos in the summer. I will take it then, give it another bash.
The odds on her being the Democrat candidate is 11.5 (9%) on Betfair. Second favourite behind Newsom.
I think the dream ticket for the Dems is Newsom with AOC as his VP. Newsom provides the look (white, male, tall, presidential) and a strategy that can widen the appeal beyond the core. AOC provides the fire and energy that will get out the core vote. Width and depth.
Dream ticket for Vance you mean! An arrogant rich California Democrat as their nominee with a far left woke Israel hater from New York as his running mate is guaranteed to turn middle America off.
Buttigieg or Shapiro or Beshear might worry Vance and the GOP, Newsom and AOC would not
Almost anyone could beat Vance, assuming fair election in 2028.
Perhaps if Trump's approval ratings continue to be in the toilet but Vance is clever and ruthless and grew up in poverty in Ohio, which was the ultimate swing state until 2020 and got himself to the 2nd most powerful job in the land by cunning and hard work.
Gavin Newsom's father meanwhile was attorney for Getty Oil and AOC's father was an architect and neither have shown any ability to connect with swing voters in the rustbelt, they have only been elected in safe Democrat states.
AOC has dropped her pronouns and has adopted Bernie Sanders priorities, in particular, cost of living.
A 2025 AtlasIntel poll found her to be one of only three major political leaders with a net positive image, with 46% of Americans viewing her positively compared to 44% negatively.
AOC recently toured Arizona and Nevada with Bernie Sanders, where they attracted record-breaking crowds (including 34,000 in Denver, Colorado).
A July 2025 poll of "Biden skippers"—voters in battleground states who sat out the 2024 election—found that 78% had a favorable view of Bernie Sanders, the highest of any Democratic-aligned figure.
I'm not suggesting her for President - too young, short, woman, brown - but as a VP complement to Newsom (tall, white, male, presidential). It's a ticket that reaches Bernie Sanders supporters. AOC is young enough to bide her time as VP for two terms if necessary.
It's a strong combination.
I think AOC would be a good VP candidate although she may choose to bide her time so that she can run either in 2032/2036 when she would be (I think) 45-50.
AOC + Newsom would be a disaster - reinforces the coastal state narrative
I think State of origen is a bit exagerrated in importance. How much did having Walz on the ticket help Harris in the Midwest?
Trump is New York to the core yet wins in Alabama, and does anyone realistically think Buttigeig could flip Indiana or Beshar flip Kentucky?
Comparing the two Trump wins:
Minnesota 2016 Clinton +1.52% 2024 Harris +4.24%
Michigan 2016 Trump +0.23% 2024 Trump +1.42%
Pennsylvania 2016 Trump +0.72% 2024 Trump +1.71%
Wisconsin 2016 Trump +0.77% 2024 Trump +0.86%
Compared with California
2016 Clinton +30.11% 2024 Harris +20.24%
Suggests that Walz did help in the rust belt states, especially his home Minnesota.
Certainly more than Harris did in either California or adjacent Nevada and Arizona.
I am not saying that there is no effect (though it does seem only significant in home state) just that it is only one consideration amongst many.
I am a big AOC fan but I think the Dems need a more centrist candidate in 2028.
The issue is more with Newsom and AOC both appealing to a core democrat audience. They need someone who can reach out to the Midwest
The problem with AOC is that she, like a lot of left wing Democrats, doesn't understand basic economics.
The solution to a housing crisis is more housing, not attempting to suppress prices (which results in less housing).
The "Abundance" Democrats get this. Newsom, while a slimy toad, also gets this.
AOC, Mamdami, Sanders and much of the Democrat left do not.
The odds on her being the Democrat candidate is 11.5 (9%) on Betfair. Second favourite behind Newsom.
I think the dream ticket for the Dems is Newsom with AOC as his VP. Newsom provides the look (white, male, tall, presidential) and a strategy that can widen the appeal beyond the core. AOC provides the fire and energy that will get out the core vote. Width and depth.
Dream ticket for Vance you mean! An arrogant rich California Democrat as their nominee with a far left woke Israel hater from New York as his running mate is guaranteed to turn middle America off.
Buttigieg or Shapiro or Beshear might worry Vance and the GOP, Newsom and AOC would not
Almost anyone could beat Vance, assuming fair election in 2028.
Perhaps if Trump's approval ratings continue to be in the toilet but Vance is clever and ruthless and grew up in poverty in Ohio, which was the ultimate swing state until 2020 and got himself to the 2nd most powerful job in the land by cunning and hard work.
Gavin Newsom's father meanwhile was attorney for Getty Oil and AOC's father was an architect and neither have shown any ability to connect with swing voters in the rustbelt, they have only been elected in safe Democrat states.
AOC has dropped her pronouns and has adopted Bernie Sanders priorities, in particular, cost of living.
A 2025 AtlasIntel poll found her to be one of only three major political leaders with a net positive image, with 46% of Americans viewing her positively compared to 44% negatively.
AOC recently toured Arizona and Nevada with Bernie Sanders, where they attracted record-breaking crowds (including 34,000 in Denver, Colorado).
A July 2025 poll of "Biden skippers"—voters in battleground states who sat out the 2024 election—found that 78% had a favorable view of Bernie Sanders, the highest of any Democratic-aligned figure.
I'm not suggesting her for President - too young, short, woman, brown - but as a VP complement to Newsom (tall, white, male, presidential). It's a ticket that reaches Bernie Sanders supporters. AOC is young enough to bide her time as VP for two terms if necessary.
It's a strong combination.
I think AOC would be a good VP candidate although she may choose to bide her time so that she can run either in 2032/2036 when she would be (I think) 45-50.
AOC + Newsom would be a disaster - reinforces the coastal state narrative
I think State of origen is a bit exagerrated in importance. How much did having Walz on the ticket help Harris in the Midwest?
Trump is New York to the core yet wins in Alabama, and does anyone realistically think Buttigeig could flip Indiana or Beshar flip Kentucky?
Comparing the two Trump wins:
Minnesota 2016 Clinton +1.52% 2024 Harris +4.24%
Michigan 2016 Trump +0.23% 2024 Trump +1.42%
Pennsylvania 2016 Trump +0.72% 2024 Trump +1.71%
Wisconsin 2016 Trump +0.77% 2024 Trump +0.86%
Compared with California
2016 Clinton +30.11% 2024 Harris +20.24%
Suggests that Walz did help in the rust belt states, especially his home Minnesota.
Certainly more than Harris did in either California or adjacent Nevada and Arizona.
I am not saying that there is no effect (though it does seem only significant in home state) just that it is only one consideration amongst many.
I am a big AOC fan but I think the Dems need a more centrist candidate in 2028.
The issue is more with Newsom and AOC both appealing to a core democrat audience. They need someone who can reach out to the Midwest
Newsom is perfectly capable of doing that, as he's unhampered by any principles.
I suspect Ossoff is more likely to be in the mix than AOC. A liberal who can win in Georgia is better placed than one from NY, and he's as charismatic as any of the contenders.
The odds on her being the Democrat candidate is 11.5 (9%) on Betfair. Second favourite behind Newsom.
I think the dream ticket for the Dems is Newsom with AOC as his VP. Newsom provides the look (white, male, tall, presidential) and a strategy that can widen the appeal beyond the core. AOC provides the fire and energy that will get out the core vote. Width and depth.
Dream ticket for Vance you mean! An arrogant rich California Democrat as their nominee with a far left woke Israel hater from New York as his running mate is guaranteed to turn middle America off.
Buttigieg or Shapiro or Beshear might worry Vance and the GOP, Newsom and AOC would not
Almost anyone could beat Vance, assuming fair election in 2028.
Perhaps if Trump's approval ratings continue to be in the toilet but Vance is clever and ruthless and grew up in poverty in Ohio, which was the ultimate swing state until 2020 and got himself to the 2nd most powerful job in the land by cunning and hard work.
Gavin Newsom's father meanwhile was attorney for Getty Oil and AOC's father was an architect and neither have shown any ability to connect with swing voters in the rustbelt, they have only been elected in safe Democrat states.
AOC has dropped her pronouns and has adopted Bernie Sanders priorities, in particular, cost of living.
A 2025 AtlasIntel poll found her to be one of only three major political leaders with a net positive image, with 46% of Americans viewing her positively compared to 44% negatively.
AOC recently toured Arizona and Nevada with Bernie Sanders, where they attracted record-breaking crowds (including 34,000 in Denver, Colorado).
A July 2025 poll of "Biden skippers"—voters in battleground states who sat out the 2024 election—found that 78% had a favorable view of Bernie Sanders, the highest of any Democratic-aligned figure.
I'm not suggesting her for President - too young, short, woman, brown - but as a VP complement to Newsom (tall, white, male, presidential). It's a ticket that reaches Bernie Sanders supporters. AOC is young enough to bide her time as VP for two terms if necessary.
It's a strong combination.
I think AOC would be a good VP candidate although she may choose to bide her time so that she can run either in 2032/2036 when she would be (I think) 45-50.
AOC + Newsom would be a disaster - reinforces the coastal state narrative
I think State of origen is a bit exagerrated in importance. How much did having Walz on the ticket help Harris in the Midwest?
Trump is New York to the core yet wins in Alabama, and does anyone realistically think Buttigeig could flip Indiana or Beshar flip Kentucky?
Comparing the two Trump wins:
Minnesota 2016 Clinton +1.52% 2024 Harris +4.24%
Michigan 2016 Trump +0.23% 2024 Trump +1.42%
Pennsylvania 2016 Trump +0.72% 2024 Trump +1.71%
Wisconsin 2016 Trump +0.77% 2024 Trump +0.86%
Compared with California
2016 Clinton +30.11% 2024 Harris +20.24%
Suggests that Walz did help in the rust belt states, especially his home Minnesota.
Certainly more than Harris did in either California or adjacent Nevada and Arizona.
I am not saying that there is no effect (though it does seem only significant in home state) just that it is only one consideration amongst many.
I am a big AOC fan but I think the Dems need a more centrist candidate in 2028.
The issue is more with Newsom and AOC both appealing to a core democrat audience. They need someone who can reach out to the Midwest
Newsom is perfectly capable of doing that, as he's unhampered by any principles.
I suspect Ossoff is more likely to be in the mix than AOC. A liberal who can win in Georgia is better placed than one from NY, and he's as charismatic as any of the contenders.
He is the second most articulate man in the Democratic field, behind Buttigieg.
So much winning by RUssia. They also appear to be losing territory in a Ukrainina counter - territory it cost sthem many ts of thousand dead to acquire. If so, the whole Russian strategy in Ukraine of swapping bodies for land is collapsing.
There was a period in Q4 of last year when it appeared that Ukraine was finally being overwhelmed and their resistance was starting to crumble but, for whatever reason, the balance now seems to have swung back the other way and it is Russia that is struggling. Given that the US has provided almost nothing over this period (other than some intelligence) it appears to me from the outside that the driving forces for this are remarkable leaps in Ukraine drone technology and the loss of Starlink for the Russians. supported by a much more determined European response.
Rubio's comment that no one is winning is probably fair but if you had to pick a winner right now it wouldn't be Russia.
In training exercises in Estonia Ukraine's forces, with their drones, scored an emphatic victory over NATO troops. We have so much to learn from them and a real opportunity to jump several expensive generations of kit at no cost to us (other than paying them in some of our production, of course).
Its a vivid demonstration of what Europe needs to do to break their dependence on US kit and technology given our new more distant relationship.
Trump's frankly ridiculous response is that Ukraine has to move or make concessions to get peace. Ukraine are increasingly simply ignoring them.
The longer Ukraine ignores Trump, the more desperate Putin will become. He went all in on Trump bailing him out. His hydrocarbons industry is having its kit and its markets systematically taken down. His ability to fight and finance war is at the edge of collapse.
Hang in there, Ukraine.
Post-war, Ukraine will have a thriving defence industry supplying the rest of Europe and Canada with kit.
Likely South Korea, Japan and Taiwan too.
S Korea already does have a thriving defence industry supplying Europe...
But yes, that's almost certainly true, as Ukraine has developed a lot of novel and relatively cheap kit, has a drone industry on its way to becoming independent if the Chinese supply chain, and has numerous JVs with western defence manufacturers.
Ukraine's drones are very dependent of STMicro's semiconductors
The odds on her being the Democrat candidate is 11.5 (9%) on Betfair. Second favourite behind Newsom.
I think the dream ticket for the Dems is Newsom with AOC as his VP. Newsom provides the look (white, male, tall, presidential) and a strategy that can widen the appeal beyond the core. AOC provides the fire and energy that will get out the core vote. Width and depth.
Dream ticket for Vance you mean! An arrogant rich California Democrat as their nominee with a far left woke Israel hater from New York as his running mate is guaranteed to turn middle America off.
Buttigieg or Shapiro or Beshear might worry Vance and the GOP, Newsom and AOC would not
Almost anyone could beat Vance, assuming fair election in 2028.
Perhaps if Trump's approval ratings continue to be in the toilet but Vance is clever and ruthless and grew up in poverty in Ohio, which was the ultimate swing state until 2020 and got himself to the 2nd most powerful job in the land by cunning and hard work.
Gavin Newsom's father meanwhile was attorney for Getty Oil and AOC's father was an architect and neither have shown any ability to connect with swing voters in the rustbelt, they have only been elected in safe Democrat states.
AOC has dropped her pronouns and has adopted Bernie Sanders priorities, in particular, cost of living.
A 2025 AtlasIntel poll found her to be one of only three major political leaders with a net positive image, with 46% of Americans viewing her positively compared to 44% negatively.
AOC recently toured Arizona and Nevada with Bernie Sanders, where they attracted record-breaking crowds (including 34,000 in Denver, Colorado).
A July 2025 poll of "Biden skippers"—voters in battleground states who sat out the 2024 election—found that 78% had a favorable view of Bernie Sanders, the highest of any Democratic-aligned figure.
I'm not suggesting her for President - too young, short, woman, brown - but as a VP complement to Newsom (tall, white, male, presidential). It's a ticket that reaches Bernie Sanders supporters. AOC is young enough to bide her time as VP for two terms if necessary.
It's a strong combination.
I think AOC would be a good VP candidate although she may choose to bide her time so that she can run either in 2032/2036 when she would be (I think) 45-50.
AOC + Newsom would be a disaster - reinforces the coastal state narrative
I think State of origen is a bit exagerrated in importance. How much did having Walz on the ticket help Harris in the Midwest?
Trump is New York to the core yet wins in Alabama, and does anyone realistically think Buttigeig could flip Indiana or Beshar flip Kentucky?
Comparing the two Trump wins:
Minnesota 2016 Clinton +1.52% 2024 Harris +4.24%
Michigan 2016 Trump +0.23% 2024 Trump +1.42%
Pennsylvania 2016 Trump +0.72% 2024 Trump +1.71%
Wisconsin 2016 Trump +0.77% 2024 Trump +0.86%
Compared with California
2016 Clinton +30.11% 2024 Harris +20.24%
Suggests that Walz did help in the rust belt states, especially his home Minnesota.
Certainly more than Harris did in either California or adjacent Nevada and Arizona.
I am not saying that there is no effect (though it does seem only significant in home state) just that it is only one consideration amongst many.
I am a big AOC fan but I think the Dems need a more centrist candidate in 2028.
The issue is more with Newsom and AOC both appealing to a core democrat audience. They need someone who can reach out to the Midwest
The problem with AOC is that she, like a lot of left wing Democrats, doesn't understand basic economics.
The solution to a housing crisis is more housing, not attempting to suppress prices (which results in less housing).
The "Abundance" Democrats get this. Newsom, while a slimy toad, also gets this.
AOC, Mamdami, Sanders and much of the Democrat left do not.
Is that true of Mamdani ? For a socialist, he seems relatively pragmatic - and is planning to finance quite a lot of home construction.
Not my politics, but he's more real world than quite a lot of the US left.
The odds on her being the Democrat candidate is 11.5 (9%) on Betfair. Second favourite behind Newsom.
I think the dream ticket for the Dems is Newsom with AOC as his VP. Newsom provides the look (white, male, tall, presidential) and a strategy that can widen the appeal beyond the core. AOC provides the fire and energy that will get out the core vote. Width and depth.
Dream ticket for Vance you mean! An arrogant rich California Democrat as their nominee with a far left woke Israel hater from New York as his running mate is guaranteed to turn middle America off.
Buttigieg or Shapiro or Beshear might worry Vance and the GOP, Newsom and AOC would not
Almost anyone could beat Vance, assuming fair election in 2028.
Perhaps if Trump's approval ratings continue to be in the toilet but Vance is clever and ruthless and grew up in poverty in Ohio, which was the ultimate swing state until 2020 and got himself to the 2nd most powerful job in the land by cunning and hard work.
Gavin Newsom's father meanwhile was attorney for Getty Oil and AOC's father was an architect and neither have shown any ability to connect with swing voters in the rustbelt, they have only been elected in safe Democrat states.
AOC has dropped her pronouns and has adopted Bernie Sanders priorities, in particular, cost of living.
A 2025 AtlasIntel poll found her to be one of only three major political leaders with a net positive image, with 46% of Americans viewing her positively compared to 44% negatively.
AOC recently toured Arizona and Nevada with Bernie Sanders, where they attracted record-breaking crowds (including 34,000 in Denver, Colorado).
A July 2025 poll of "Biden skippers"—voters in battleground states who sat out the 2024 election—found that 78% had a favorable view of Bernie Sanders, the highest of any Democratic-aligned figure.
I'm not suggesting her for President - too young, short, woman, brown - but as a VP complement to Newsom (tall, white, male, presidential). It's a ticket that reaches Bernie Sanders supporters. AOC is young enough to bide her time as VP for two terms if necessary.
It's a strong combination.
I think AOC would be a good VP candidate although she may choose to bide her time so that she can run either in 2032/2036 when she would be (I think) 45-50.
AOC + Newsom would be a disaster - reinforces the coastal state narrative
I think State of origen is a bit exagerrated in importance. How much did having Walz on the ticket help Harris in the Midwest?
Trump is New York to the core yet wins in Alabama, and does anyone realistically think Buttigeig could flip Indiana or Beshar flip Kentucky?
Comparing the two Trump wins:
Minnesota 2016 Clinton +1.52% 2024 Harris +4.24%
Michigan 2016 Trump +0.23% 2024 Trump +1.42%
Pennsylvania 2016 Trump +0.72% 2024 Trump +1.71%
Wisconsin 2016 Trump +0.77% 2024 Trump +0.86%
Compared with California
2016 Clinton +30.11% 2024 Harris +20.24%
Suggests that Walz did help in the rust belt states, especially his home Minnesota.
Certainly more than Harris did in either California or adjacent Nevada and Arizona.
I am not saying that there is no effect (though it does seem only significant in home state) just that it is only one consideration amongst many.
I am a big AOC fan but I think the Dems need a more centrist candidate in 2028.
Charisma matters much more than policy in presidential elections, especially in America, whose population is even less interested in the nuts and bolts of government and its associated tradeoffs than our own Great Unwashed.
That's especially true on the left, whose main policies have been utterly discredited since the collapse of communism. But it's also true on the right, as the completely vacuous but somehow compelling Trump has shown.
So, as I've said on here before, their main hope is to get a charismatic bullshitter who will inspire their marginal voters (especially the young and inexperienced), and then let them down completely after the election.
Of the leading candidates Buttigeig always comes across well with charisma.
Not sure America is ready for a gay president yet.
The Simpsons predicted they'd be ready for a gay president in 2084, I think they might be a little ahead of that at least.
Been doing a bit of 'how screwed are Labour?' Research on local by elections since May 2025. Labour are the only English main party not to hit 50% in a single election since then and have exceeded 40% only 7 times out of 208. In 18 of the 64 wards they defended they achieved less than 20% (more than they held). They have not gained a single ward, anywhere.
May has the capacity to be an astonishingly brutal night for them
The odds on her being the Democrat candidate is 11.5 (9%) on Betfair. Second favourite behind Newsom.
I think the dream ticket for the Dems is Newsom with AOC as his VP. Newsom provides the look (white, male, tall, presidential) and a strategy that can widen the appeal beyond the core. AOC provides the fire and energy that will get out the core vote. Width and depth.
Dream ticket for Vance you mean! An arrogant rich California Democrat as their nominee with a far left woke Israel hater from New York as his running mate is guaranteed to turn middle America off.
Buttigieg or Shapiro or Beshear might worry Vance and the GOP, Newsom and AOC would not
Almost anyone could beat Vance, assuming fair election in 2028.
Perhaps if Trump's approval ratings continue to be in the toilet but Vance is clever and ruthless and grew up in poverty in Ohio, which was the ultimate swing state until 2020 and got himself to the 2nd most powerful job in the land by cunning and hard work.
Gavin Newsom's father meanwhile was attorney for Getty Oil and AOC's father was an architect and neither have shown any ability to connect with swing voters in the rustbelt, they have only been elected in safe Democrat states.
AOC has dropped her pronouns and has adopted Bernie Sanders priorities, in particular, cost of living.
A 2025 AtlasIntel poll found her to be one of only three major political leaders with a net positive image, with 46% of Americans viewing her positively compared to 44% negatively.
AOC recently toured Arizona and Nevada with Bernie Sanders, where they attracted record-breaking crowds (including 34,000 in Denver, Colorado).
A July 2025 poll of "Biden skippers"—voters in battleground states who sat out the 2024 election—found that 78% had a favorable view of Bernie Sanders, the highest of any Democratic-aligned figure.
I'm not suggesting her for President - too young, short, woman, brown - but as a VP complement to Newsom (tall, white, male, presidential). It's a ticket that reaches Bernie Sanders supporters. AOC is young enough to bide her time as VP for two terms if necessary.
It's a strong combination.
I think AOC would be a good VP candidate although she may choose to bide her time so that she can run either in 2032/2036 when she would be (I think) 45-50.
AOC + Newsom would be a disaster - reinforces the coastal state narrative
I think State of origen is a bit exagerrated in importance. How much did having Walz on the ticket help Harris in the Midwest?
Trump is New York to the core yet wins in Alabama, and does anyone realistically think Buttigeig could flip Indiana or Beshar flip Kentucky?
Comparing the two Trump wins:
Minnesota 2016 Clinton +1.52% 2024 Harris +4.24%
Michigan 2016 Trump +0.23% 2024 Trump +1.42%
Pennsylvania 2016 Trump +0.72% 2024 Trump +1.71%
Wisconsin 2016 Trump +0.77% 2024 Trump +0.86%
Compared with California
2016 Clinton +30.11% 2024 Harris +20.24%
Suggests that Walz did help in the rust belt states, especially his home Minnesota.
Certainly more than Harris did in either California or adjacent Nevada and Arizona.
I am not saying that there is no effect (though it does seem only significant in home state) just that it is only one consideration amongst many.
I am a big AOC fan but I think the Dems need a more centrist candidate in 2028.
The issue is more with Newsom and AOC both appealing to a core democrat audience. They need someone who can reach out to the Midwest
Newsom is perfectly capable of doing that, as he's unhampered by any principles.
I suspect Ossoff is more likely to be in the mix than AOC. A liberal who can win in Georgia is better placed than one from NY, and he's as charismatic as any of the contenders.
"Those are my principles, and if you don't like them, well, I have others!"
I’m so pleased that Italy, like Argentina, have become a decent rugby team. They haven’t yet quite reached Argentina’s level, but they’re so far from their 6N whipping boys status of a decade ago
The odds on her being the Democrat candidate is 11.5 (9%) on Betfair. Second favourite behind Newsom.
I think the dream ticket for the Dems is Newsom with AOC as his VP. Newsom provides the look (white, male, tall, presidential) and a strategy that can widen the appeal beyond the core. AOC provides the fire and energy that will get out the core vote. Width and depth.
Dream ticket for Vance you mean! An arrogant rich California Democrat as their nominee with a far left woke Israel hater from New York as his running mate is guaranteed to turn middle America off.
Buttigieg or Shapiro or Beshear might worry Vance and the GOP, Newsom and AOC would not
Almost anyone could beat Vance, assuming fair election in 2028.
Perhaps if Trump's approval ratings continue to be in the toilet but Vance is clever and ruthless and grew up in poverty in Ohio, which was the ultimate swing state until 2020 and got himself to the 2nd most powerful job in the land by cunning and hard work.
Gavin Newsom's father meanwhile was attorney for Getty Oil and AOC's father was an architect and neither have shown any ability to connect with swing voters in the rustbelt, they have only been elected in safe Democrat states.
AOC has dropped her pronouns and has adopted Bernie Sanders priorities, in particular, cost of living.
A 2025 AtlasIntel poll found her to be one of only three major political leaders with a net positive image, with 46% of Americans viewing her positively compared to 44% negatively.
AOC recently toured Arizona and Nevada with Bernie Sanders, where they attracted record-breaking crowds (including 34,000 in Denver, Colorado).
A July 2025 poll of "Biden skippers"—voters in battleground states who sat out the 2024 election—found that 78% had a favorable view of Bernie Sanders, the highest of any Democratic-aligned figure.
I'm not suggesting her for President - too young, short, woman, brown - but as a VP complement to Newsom (tall, white, male, presidential). It's a ticket that reaches Bernie Sanders supporters. AOC is young enough to bide her time as VP for two terms if necessary.
It's a strong combination.
I think AOC would be a good VP candidate although she may choose to bide her time so that she can run either in 2032/2036 when she would be (I think) 45-50.
AOC + Newsom would be a disaster - reinforces the coastal state narrative
I think State of origen is a bit exagerrated in importance. How much did having Walz on the ticket help Harris in the Midwest?
Trump is New York to the core yet wins in Alabama, and does anyone realistically think Buttigeig could flip Indiana or Beshar flip Kentucky?
Comparing the two Trump wins:
Minnesota 2016 Clinton +1.52% 2024 Harris +4.24%
Michigan 2016 Trump +0.23% 2024 Trump +1.42%
Pennsylvania 2016 Trump +0.72% 2024 Trump +1.71%
Wisconsin 2016 Trump +0.77% 2024 Trump +0.86%
Compared with California
2016 Clinton +30.11% 2024 Harris +20.24%
Suggests that Walz did help in the rust belt states, especially his home Minnesota.
Certainly more than Harris did in either California or adjacent Nevada and Arizona.
I am not saying that there is no effect (though it does seem only significant in home state) just that it is only one consideration amongst many.
I am a big AOC fan but I think the Dems need a more centrist candidate in 2028.
The issue is more with Newsom and AOC both appealing to a core democrat audience. They need someone who can reach out to the Midwest
The problem with AOC is that she, like a lot of left wing Democrats, doesn't understand basic economics.
The solution to a housing crisis is more housing, not attempting to suppress prices (which results in less housing).
The "Abundance" Democrats get this. Newsom, while a slimy toad, also gets this.
AOC, Mamdami, Sanders and much of the Democrat left do not.
Is that true of Mamdani ? For a socialist, he seems relatively pragmatic - and is planning to finance quite a lot of home construction.
Not my politics, but he's more real world than quite a lot of the US left.
He's stated that he's in favour of rent control. In New York - the town where it was proved, to destruction, that rent control doesn't work.
The odds on her being the Democrat candidate is 11.5 (9%) on Betfair. Second favourite behind Newsom.
I think the dream ticket for the Dems is Newsom with AOC as his VP. Newsom provides the look (white, male, tall, presidential) and a strategy that can widen the appeal beyond the core. AOC provides the fire and energy that will get out the core vote. Width and depth.
Dream ticket for Vance you mean! An arrogant rich California Democrat as their nominee with a far left woke Israel hater from New York as his running mate is guaranteed to turn middle America off.
Buttigieg or Shapiro or Beshear might worry Vance and the GOP, Newsom and AOC would not
Almost anyone could beat Vance, assuming fair election in 2028.
Perhaps if Trump's approval ratings continue to be in the toilet but Vance is clever and ruthless and grew up in poverty in Ohio, which was the ultimate swing state until 2020 and got himself to the 2nd most powerful job in the land by cunning and hard work.
Gavin Newsom's father meanwhile was attorney for Getty Oil and AOC's father was an architect and neither have shown any ability to connect with swing voters in the rustbelt, they have only been elected in safe Democrat states.
AOC has dropped her pronouns and has adopted Bernie Sanders priorities, in particular, cost of living.
A 2025 AtlasIntel poll found her to be one of only three major political leaders with a net positive image, with 46% of Americans viewing her positively compared to 44% negatively.
AOC recently toured Arizona and Nevada with Bernie Sanders, where they attracted record-breaking crowds (including 34,000 in Denver, Colorado).
A July 2025 poll of "Biden skippers"—voters in battleground states who sat out the 2024 election—found that 78% had a favorable view of Bernie Sanders, the highest of any Democratic-aligned figure.
I'm not suggesting her for President - too young, short, woman, brown - but as a VP complement to Newsom (tall, white, male, presidential). It's a ticket that reaches Bernie Sanders supporters. AOC is young enough to bide her time as VP for two terms if necessary.
It's a strong combination.
I think AOC would be a good VP candidate although she may choose to bide her time so that she can run either in 2032/2036 when she would be (I think) 45-50.
AOC + Newsom would be a disaster - reinforces the coastal state narrative
I think State of origen is a bit exagerrated in importance. How much did having Walz on the ticket help Harris in the Midwest?
Trump is New York to the core yet wins in Alabama, and does anyone realistically think Buttigeig could flip Indiana or Beshar flip Kentucky?
Comparing the two Trump wins:
Minnesota 2016 Clinton +1.52% 2024 Harris +4.24%
Michigan 2016 Trump +0.23% 2024 Trump +1.42%
Pennsylvania 2016 Trump +0.72% 2024 Trump +1.71%
Wisconsin 2016 Trump +0.77% 2024 Trump +0.86%
Compared with California
2016 Clinton +30.11% 2024 Harris +20.24%
Suggests that Walz did help in the rust belt states, especially his home Minnesota.
Certainly more than Harris did in either California or adjacent Nevada and Arizona.
I am not saying that there is no effect (though it does seem only significant in home state) just that it is only one consideration amongst many.
I am a big AOC fan but I think the Dems need a more centrist candidate in 2028.
The issue is more with Newsom and AOC both appealing to a core democrat audience. They need someone who can reach out to the Midwest
Newsom is perfectly capable of doing that, as he's unhampered by any principles.
I suspect Ossoff is more likely to be in the mix than AOC. A liberal who can win in Georgia is better placed than one from NY, and he's as charismatic as any of the contenders.
"Those are my principles, and if you don't like them, well, I have others!"
Principles are an odd thing, because you can be very principled but with some awful principles so it is not a plus. But if you have none at all you are an untrustworthy chimera.
So the key is to have some principles, don't junk them entirely on a whim, but retain a pragmatic approach to them.
Been doing a bit of 'how screwed are Labour?' Research on local by elections since May 2025. Labour are the only English main party not to hit 50% in a single election since then and have exceeded 40% only 7 times out of 208. In 18 of the 64 wards they defended they achieved less than 20% (more than they held). They have not gained a single ward, anywhere.
May has the capacity to be an astonishingly brutal night for them
May be you would be better to look at Government vote share in mid term year 2 and 3 over the past 25 years
All May will be is a sample in time.
It will have no bearing on the 2929 GE
Furthermore how screwed will the Tories be, off there worst GE result in 100 years, how much will they have increased vote share from that abysmal low point.
Comments
Not working, actions speak louder than words.
In training exercises in Estonia Ukraine's forces, with their drones, scored an emphatic victory over NATO troops. We have so much to learn from them and a real opportunity to jump several expensive generations of kit at no cost to us (other than paying them in some of our production, of course).
In the meantime Ukraine is rapidly building its own missile defence systems to supersede the Patriot systems with something far more comprehensive.
https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukraine-is-developing-an-advanced-missile-defense-system-to-counter-russias-oreshnik-5220
Its a vivid demonstration of what Europe needs to do to break their dependence on US kit and technology given our new more distant relationship.
Trump's frankly ridiculous response is that Ukraine has to move or make concessions to get peace. Ukraine are increasingly simply ignoring them.
The Conservatives had it easy when their rivals to the right were obviously unacceptable- NF, BNP and so on. Then Farage came along and they've not had it easy since. Fighting on two fronts is largely a losing strategy.
Labour have always had problems on their left flank, but Polanski's Greens look like the toughest rivals yet.
Now Lowe looks like he will try to insert himself between Farage and blatant fash. I don't know if he will manage it, but it will be fascinating seeing him try and even more fascinating seeing Farage's response.
Disappprove at 62%, up from 59% last month.
So much winning...
Minnesota
2016 Clinton +1.52%
2024 Harris +4.24%
Michigan
2016 Trump +0.23%
2024 Trump +1.42%
Pennsylvania
2016 Trump +0.72%
2024 Trump +1.71%
Wisconsin
2016 Trump +0.77%
2024 Trump +0.86%
Compared with California
2016 Clinton +30.11%
2024 Harris +20.24%
Suggests that Walz did help in the rust belt states, especially his home Minnesota.
Certainly more than Harris did in either California or adjacent Nevada and Arizona.
Hang in there, Ukraine.
Get a career in the Royal Navy; that’ll really show the over-entitled bastards
Reform 29 % - Farage PM likely
Reform 23% - 100 seats or fewer
We are in a bubble and have been since May. Bubbles tend to burst eventually. Especially when inflated by those who often do not vote and/or have no long term ingrained loyalty
Thus i think Farage goes before the great deflation
I am a big AOC fan but I think the Dems need a more centrist candidate in 2028.
Without Farage, they will get little attention, and even fewer votes.
https://x.com/lordashcroft/status/2022664384049262751
Gives the Ukranians money for expansion, and places British companies in a good place for when the war finishes. Land war has changed completely in the last four years, and much doctrine of the past three decades or more is now obsolete.
Notable that the Advance UK candidate in Gorton and Henton beat the official Reform candidate in last years Manchester Mayoral Election.
Question is, how many were born in Italy?
Some of the qualifications for eligibility in Rugby have sadly destroyed some nations, whilst massively benefiting others
Emporers New Insurgency
Free tickets being given away.
Thanks to Starmer
However after 10 years of Brexit delivered destruction he has to go bolder harder faster.
Sadly our Country has been put back a generation by Brexit
Those responsible are as reasonable and reprehensible as Mandelson and Epstein
They may have buggered hundreds, Brexit buggered a Nation
What about O'Izuchukwu and FitzEdogbo for Ireland?
They should have kicked for the posts at the end
Since JFK every winning Dem presidential candidate but 1 was a governor or Senator from a southern state eg LBJ, Carter and Bill Clinton or grew up in in the rustbelt eg Biden.
Obama was the only exception but 2008 was a year of deep recession and post Iraq War and any Democrat would have won as voters were fed up with the Bush Cheney administration (and Obama's mother grew up in Kansas of course)
Oh..
Hang on.
Another one's gone in Durham. That's now a six pack.
To Grimesy:
“It is clear that certain members of the Reform leadership including yourself but principally your deputy, Cllr Grimes, hold members of their own administration in very serious disdain and consequently refuse to engage in any meaningful"
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/25850926.cllr-nick-brown-quits-durham-reform-letter-leader/
Bart will not be happy, they have cancelled a bypass.
Good News: Congress is beginning to try to correct some Musk/Trump errors, in order to rebuild our defenses. (Links omitted. The USAGM is the United States Agency for Global Media.)
O'Izuchukwu's first name is Cormac
That's Irish enough for me
Hyperbole of the most unpleasant undertones
Running away from hustings doesnt scream strong reception
That's especially true on the left, whose main policies have been utterly discredited since the collapse of communism. But it's also true on the right, as the completely vacuous but somehow compelling Trump has shown.
So, as I've said on here before, their main hope is to get a charismatic bullshitter who will inspire their marginal voters (especially the young and inexperienced), and then let them down completely after the election.
It is viewable here:
https://youtu.be/n2Xlv3ntOm0?si=VnVheaAruvZu2TYp
Not sure America is ready for a gay president yet.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/royals/article-15219503/Kates-frosty-relationship-Beatrice-Eugenie-Royal-insiders-reveal-Princess-cautious-Andrews-daughters-latest-Epstein-revelations-death-knell-future-Royal-Family.html
https://news.gallup.com/poll/155285/atheists-muslims-bias-presidential-candidates.aspx#:~:text=Two-thirds would vote for,falls between these two extremes.
I suggest Andrew's two daughters would be well advised, for the moment at least, to concentrate on their families, their jobs and maybe their charity work rather than being their parent's daughters. In other words, live their own lives.
So far as I have read the only contact they have had with Epstein and his 'mob' was at the behest of their mother who doesn't strike me as being a desirablerole model.
Reform remains supremely confident of victory, but hubris always leads to nemesis once first contact with the voters is achieved. More excitable bloggers pine for insurrections if Labour “steals” the election, while Rory Stewart leans back and gets ready to watch the motion picture.
The only thing worse than Reform losing will be them winning: then we’ll all be Shatner-ed.
Hah! @viewcode
It's essentially self serving (for nomination positioning) and means next to nothing in terms of actual administration policy.
There will be people who are understandably desperate to hear this, but it's important to be clear-eyed about Rubio himself and what the Trump administration is doing. 🧵
https://x.com/ruth_deyermond/status/2022654839550021959
Rutte, of course, will grasp it like a drowning man seizing a rotten branch. Starmer too, perhaps ?
We’ve had poor governance for many years now. Nothing will change.
But it’s all how awful Reform will be 🙄
But yes, that's almost certainly true, as Ukraine has developed a lot of novel and relatively cheap kit, has a drone industry on its way to becoming independent if the Chinese supply chain, and has numerous JVs with western defence manufacturers.
I'd forgotten.
Don’t read anything into a mental exercise
The solution to a housing crisis is more housing, not attempting to suppress prices (which results in less housing).
The "Abundance" Democrats get this. Newsom, while a slimy toad, also gets this.
AOC, Mamdami, Sanders and much of the Democrat left do not.
I suspect Ossoff is more likely to be in the mix than AOC. A liberal who can win in Georgia is better placed than one from NY, and he's as charismatic as any of the contenders.
They increased the NMW; that made my wage closer to it
For a socialist, he seems relatively pragmatic - and is planning to finance quite a lot of home construction.
Not my politics, but he's more real world than quite a lot of the US left.
Labour are the only English main party not to hit 50% in a single election since then and have exceeded 40% only 7 times out of 208. In 18 of the 64 wards they defended they achieved less than 20% (more than they held). They have not gained a single ward, anywhere.
May has the capacity to be an astonishingly brutal night for them
Just guessing.
So the key is to have some principles, don't junk them entirely on a whim, but retain a pragmatic approach to them.
Says the woolly centrist.
All May will be is a sample in time.
It will have no bearing on the 2929 GE
Furthermore how screwed will the Tories be, off there worst GE result in 100 years, how much will they have increased vote share from that abysmal low point.