Could Labour hold Gorton and Denton? – politicalbetting.com
Could Labour hold Gorton and Denton? – politicalbetting.com
My view on private polling and canvass reports like this is that they are as reliable as Scottish sub-sample made up of 9 people in Inverkeithing or a poll of 143 residents in the constituency so I take these reports with huge dollops of cynicism. I am not backing Labour based on these reports.
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Though I wouldn't suggest that you're making it up for entirely self serving reasons.
If they’re lucky they’ll be 3rd, behind both Reform and the Greens.
There’s a lot of ramping from Labour supporting accounts and Labour people at the moment.
I’ll take it with a pinch of salt until something more substantive and independent comes along.
I can't remember which of the experts pointed out that doing an actual valid poll is going to impossible due to the demographics and the modern world so no-one is going to have a clue how to place their anti-Reform vote.
It wouldn't surprise me if Reform won and Greens / Labour both finished within 100 votes of Reform..
Elon Musk has cynically merged xAI with SpaceX so he sidesteps having to actually make money from AI and Anthropic seem like the only AI specific company that has serious corporate penetration to last out the bubble burst.
My guess is that OpenAI goes under and MS picks up the pieces for cheap and then they do what they always do and shit it up like they have with Activision.
It's not impossible. But I think it's somewhere between very and dramatically unlikely.
A risk of stories like this is that it makes it harder to play the "Governments always lose by-elections" line when previous claims of a credible shot at success have been made.
Remember that I had a vivid dream where LibDem, Green and Reform parties created an electoral pact to take on the LabCon...
The anonymous man behind the widely shared AI-generated music videos under the name Crewkerne Gazette has been unmasked by Channel 4 News.
Joshua Bonehill-Paine is a notorious far-right figure who's spent five years in jail for a series of hate crimes against Jewish people, including inciting racial hatred and racially aggravated harassment against the Labour peer Baroness Berger.
Bonehill-Paine posted a statement on his social media after our revelations denouncing anti-semitism and saying he had been "brainwashed" at the time.
He said he regretted his past and the mistakes that he had made.
https://x.com/Channel4News/status/2021202306474156295
https://x.com/YouGov/status/2021273114416500948
It’s hard to see a scenario where Labour hang on especially after the last weeks events . If Reform win it will be a stark reminder that the more progressive split in the votes will hand them loads of seats at the next GE with a relatively small vote share .
The generous overlords have decreed the final hour may be televised. Unsure, but seems live data might be available throughout. I do have other stuff to do, shockingly, but someone like F1 Gamer (YouTube) will probably have all that up.
Hoping Alonso looks good in the Aston Martin.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2407jrn83o
The Epstein files contain a record of an interview with a police chief in 2019, and he’s saying the same thing now when approached by the media, that Trump rang him in 2006 after an investigation into Epstein began, and Trump said, “Thank goodness you're stopping him, everyone has known he's been doing this." Trump went on that people knew Epstein was “disgusting” and also advised the investigation look at Ghislaine, who was “evil”.
If this is true (and it relies on someone saying something in 2019 about an event 13 years earlier), it’s maybe good and bad news for Trump. Trump and his supporters say Trump cut off contact with Epstein before the investigation because Trump thought he was creepy. This phone call appears to corroborate that. However, Trump has also repeatedly said that he knew nothing about Epstein’s crimes, which this phone call contradicts. If Trump knew Epstein has “been doing this”, why didn’t he go to the police to report him in the first place?
I don’t see any reason to even risk a quid on Labour.
While obviously all parties talk up their campaign it is worth bearing in mind the massive Labour majority even in an underwhelming election in July 24. It would have to be a total meltdown in order to come third. Even a partial meltdown should see them home.
I think Greens will win, but not really value on current odds.
In today's politics being a LibDem is like being a Big Supporter of carrot sticks as the big saviour of our increasing national sickness
There’s something in the reporting that doesn’t sound right though. Did the police know the shooter perhaps, or were they involved? They say the shooter is dead but aren’t naming them. Some reports of an armed woman.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cr5lnzqdr5pt
Greens and Reform obviously don't have that baseline data, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Labour records in an obviously safe seat were also pretty shlonky.
And ultimately, oddly, Labour would probably prefer to lose this to Reform with a decent Labour vote, than have it taken by the Greens, eliminating Labour as the party of the progressive left. The first is unfortunate, the second is existential.
They see it as a strategic industry in the same was as they did solar or batteries a decade or so back.
There's at least a possibility that they do the same as they did then, though it's complicated by the high end chips being a (temporary at least) western monopoly.
The other complicating factor is the development of optical processing, which might radically alter the cost/power/performance ratios.
Good morning, everyone.
LD are lacking column inches so may want to exploit that.
Possible Labour more likely one nation Tory type?
My hunch is to announce they are tabling a VONC in the Government.
Puerile but it gains them column inches and intended to cause mischielf with 20 hard left abstentions or whip breakers getting suspended.
https://gotapster.com/en-gb
You don't even need your phone.
And no batteries.
Given it’s the deputy leader trailing the announcement then I expect it will go down in the meh category.
I generally tend to use my cards or phone. Rarely use the watch as I find it a bit of a faff and hardly use cash. @Anabobazina, formerly of this parish would be proud.
Looking at the sourse of the comments, a Labour Lister and a Right Wing Tory rag journalist, I suspect the fact is Reform sit top, Labour and Green close second.
The only way Burnham can figure here is if he actually turns up on the stump, very publically backs the candidate, gets seen and filmed door knocking and canvassing every day and attaches his name by default as "proxy" to the Vote. If he doesn't is backs the suspicion that aNDY Burnham is more interested in Andy Burnham than Labour. The is no "i" in team Andy!
That said, I do want to hesitantly note that there appears to have been a mild Labour recovery in some polls of late (moving out of apocalyptic to disaster, only, but a mild recovery nevertheless). Whilst I am sure that the Epstein stuff is very damaging, I do think that Labour are perhaps stabilising at a floor, and if I was a Labour supporter attempting to find some reasons for cheer, I would note that Reform appear to have hit a ceiling and (depending on which pollster you believe) the gap is not, in midterm, utterly insurmountable.
It's this normalisation that's the truly worrying development. The country is being Ulsterised
Don’t see how speculation helps really.
Reform are my assumed winner. And why not - Matt Goodwin in the Commons would be high quality entertainment as he's bonkers. The High Priest of Reformery.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15547775/Attacker-shouted-Allahu-Akbar-stabbing-rampage-London.html
"Islamist" seems a reasonable assumption, tho it is not proven, of course
So when Davey has mentioned it he's showboating?
"At this very early stage, we are keeping an open mind as to any motivation behind this attack. However, due to the surrounding circumstances, the investigation is now being led by officers from Counter Terrorism Policing London"
So, I repeat, "Islamist" seems a reaonable assumption, but not 100% certain. If we have to wait for 100% certainty before saying anything, PB would say basically nothing!
It is impolite to keep people waiting
Can you show a reputable source
Preferably not a curry source
https://news.sky.com/story/boy-13-arrested-on-suspicion-of-attempted-murder-after-double-stabbing-at-school-13505865
If I lived in that constituency and he knocked on my door, I’d say I would have voted to get him in Parliament as opposition to Starmer, but can’t be bothered to vote for some other random that gives the PM a win.
Might not be a bad thing. I may start watching it again.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2021487628475052071
Federal Aviation Administration just closed the airspace for 10 miles around the airport there for the next 10 days, with almost no notice, causing inbound commercial flights to divert.
Posssibly related to US military operations against Mexican cartels following the killing of a dozen Canadian miners, or possibly related to deportation flights out of the US. Any other ideas?
All flights to and from El Paso, Texas, have been grounded for ten days for “Special Security Reasons”, the Federal Aviation Administration announced.
Shutting down airspace of a major US city for such an extended period hasn’t happened since the aftermath of 9-11.
@chasingray.bsky.social
What the heck? This is a big airspace closure in New Mexico for no known reason.
It doesn’t help that the guy answering the provided FAA phone number for questions is telling the press (from the article) that he has no idea what’s going on.
https://bsky.app/profile/chasingray.bsky.social/post/3mekypea6jk2h
‘ The Green Party candidate for the Gorton and Denton by-election once wrote online that she was “glad” to move out of the area and said one of its high streets was full of “money-laundering takeaways”.’
https://x.com/tony_diver/status/2021505996909400441?s=61
To be taken with a Himalayan-sized pinch of salt, but entertaining, nonetheless
While everyone gets understandably excited at the big LD announcement (I believe they've found reserves of 20 billion barrels of oil under Ed Davey's garden but I could be wrong), we continue to salivate over a by election in Manchester in a fortnight where the lack of objective verifiable information allows speculation to run riot - and don't we call enjoy a good speculation?
Further away, it appears Sussan Ley (the equivalent of Kemi Badenoch in Australia) is going to face a challenge "in the Party room" from Angus Taylor who was quit the Shadow Cabinet. I presume only Liberal MPs are allowed to vote on the leadership - not sure if Senators have a vote.
The Liberals are now a poor third in recent polls behind Labor and One Nation polling 18-20% (sound familiar?) and Ley's lacklustre performance has raised questions especially with the former Coalition with the Nationals now in pieces.