BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"
"I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"
The problem with this is that Boris also had a big mandate given to him by the British people. Starmer and pretty much everyone else agreed that that mandate did not overrule what was seen and serious wrong doing and pushed hard for a resignation which inevitably came.
Boris got 14m votes compared with 9.7m for Starmer, so he's starting from a much lower base to begin with, despite the big majority.
You really, really don't understand how the awful FPTP electoral system works do you?
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
It was conducted by Merlin Strategy, a member of the BPC. I thought members of the BPC were afforded respect here
Are you doubting their integrity.
Just because you may not like who commissioned it does not make it wrong.
I’ve read the whole Cummings post and find the attitudes of the people in the focus group hard to disagree with (with a few exceptions)
I think some of it is problematic. For example the question around immigration asks the surveyees to estimate emigration since January 2021, and then pivots it to 'Conservative and Labour have not done enough', whilst afaics not mentioning that net immigration is 80% down between summer 2023 and summer 2025 in either the question or the twitter essay.
I hope that BPC standards are such that that is not up to scratch. I wonder if the attitudes would be the same had they asked for estimates of immigration since summer 2024 or in the last 12 months.
In reality net immigration is back to what it was before the post-Brexit hump, and some are trying politically to keep it central beyond its sell-by date.
(I'm not commenting on Merlin Strategy, run by Scarlett Maguire; I don't know enough to comment.)
You still don’t understand do you?
The argument has gone beyond “immigration is too high” and on to “there are far too many immigrants HERE”
So net migration could drop to zero and you’d still have an awful lot of people deeply concerned about “immigration” - amongst them the Home Secretary, who is promising to toughen up the laws on the right to remain in the UK for the Boriswave
ie - people already HERE
I read Dom's latest effusion, or at least tried to, (tbf, he is very thought-provoking) and one of his points about immigration is the number of incomers from the "very worst places", ie, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc. Young men from war-torn countries with heritage views about women, religion, etc. By inference his point is if you import people from areas where radical Islamism is a thing, you are likely to be importing radical Islamism.
He does have a point.
Doubly unfair since we Brits had little to do with Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc becoming the very worst places infected with radical Islamism.
It is fascinating how the Epstein scandal is so far taking down Brits and leaving far more exposed Americans unscathed. Maxwell is the only one in jail - British. Poor old randy Andy - British. Mandelson - British. Starmer - British and never even met Epstein - under pressure to go. Meanwhile on the newswires we have Trump commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying yes I went to Epstein Island, I don't remember why, but I did nothing wrong. He's going nowhere. Incredible, really.
But it’s precisely BECAUSE Epstein enticed so many rich powerful American men, from both parties, and from all kinds of backgrounds - arts to law, science to golf, cinema to finance - that no American man has yet fallen. Because the entire elite is implicated and they are all desperately protecting each other. I’m sure Democrats would love to get Trump on his Epstein connections, but, oh dear, Bill Clinton. Etc
The worst that seems to have happened to any American is a bit of mild embarrassment (Bill Gates, Noam Chomsky) and George Mitchell having his name removed from a scholarship programme. All probably too old or rich to care very much.
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
It was conducted by Merlin Strategy, a member of the BPC. I thought members of the BPC were afforded respect here
Are you doubting their integrity.
Just because you may not like who commissioned it does not make it wrong.
I’ve read the whole Cummings post and find the attitudes of the people in the focus group hard to disagree with (with a few exceptions)
I think some of it is problematic. For example the question around immigration asks the surveyees to estimate emigration since January 2021, and then pivots it to 'Conservative and Labour have not done enough', whilst afaics not mentioning that net immigration is 80% down between summer 2023 and summer 2025 in either the question or the twitter essay.
I hope that BPC standards are such that that is not up to scratch. I wonder if the attitudes would be the same had they asked for estimates of immigration since summer 2024 or in the last 12 months.
In reality net immigration is back to what it was before the post-Brexit hump, and some are trying politically to keep it central beyond its sell-by date.
(I'm not commenting on Merlin Strategy, run by Scarlett Maguire; I don't know enough to comment.)
You still don’t understand do you?
The argument has gone beyond “immigration is too high” and on to “there are far too many immigrants HERE”
So net migration could drop to zero and you’d still have an awful lot of people deeply concerned about “immigration” - amongst them the Home Secretary, who is promising to toughen up the laws on the right to remain in the UK for the Boriswave
ie - people already HERE
I read Dom's latest effusion, or at least tried to, (tbf, he is very thought-provoking) and one of his points about immigration is the number of incomers from the "very worst places", ie, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc. Young men from war-torn countries with heritage views about women, religion, etc. By inference his point is if you import people from areas where radical Islamism is a thing, you are likely to be importing radical Islamism.
He does have a point.
Well, yeah, derrrrrr
Is this some amazing surprise to you? Who did you think we were importing from the Middle East? Lib Dem voting feminists?
Up to a point, but many of those coming here are escaping oppressive theocratic regimes like the Taliban rather than seeking to establish similar regimes here. Refugees from the Taliban are not the Taliban, just as refugees from the Nazis were not Nazis.
Binance—Whose Founder Was Pardoned—Now Holds 87% Of Trump’s Stablecoin
The USP of crypto is to facilitate plausibly (very loosely defined) deniable bribes and large scale money laundering.
That’s not really true.
While those are features, the main point is to fleece suckers with an asymmetrical market. So they can’t even escape during the dump of a pump-and-dump.
That's not really a sustainable selling point, though. In the other use cases, both sides of the transaction are satisfied.
If you bet against this outcome - Starmer exiting this year - remember you are betting against the Wisdom of Crowds. And, as Sir Francis Galton noted, that is generally a bad move
At about 11pm on the night of the EU Referendum the odds on Leave were 10/1 against. The crowds are not necessarily wise.
It is fascinating how the Epstein scandal is so far taking down Brits and leaving far more exposed Americans unscathed. Maxwell is the only one in jail - British. Poor old randy Andy - British. Mandelson - British. Starmer - British and never even met Epstein - under pressure to go. Meanwhile on the newswires we have Trump commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying yes I went to Epstein Island, I don't remember why, but I did nothing wrong. He's going nowhere. Incredible, really.
But it’s precisely BECAUSE Epstein enticed so many rich powerful American men, from both parties, and from all kinds of backgrounds - arts to law, science to golf, cinema to finance - that no American man has yet fallen. Because the entire elite is implicated and they are all desperately protecting each other. I’m sure Democrats would love to get Trump on his Epstein connections, but, oh dear, Bill Clinton. Etc
The worst that seems to have happened to any American is a bit of mild embarrassment (Bill Gates, Noam Chomsky) and George Mitchell having his name removed from a scholarship programme. All probably too old or rich to care very much.
BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"
"I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"
The problem with this is that Boris also had a big mandate given to him by the British people. Starmer and pretty much everyone else agreed that that mandate did not overrule what was seen and serious wrong doing and pushed hard for a resignation which inevitably came.
Boris got 14m votes compared with 9.7m for Starmer, so he's starting from a much lower base to begin with, despite the big majority.
Forget Boris, Corbyn managed to get a half million more votes than Starmer.
Boris got 3.7 million more votes than Corbyn in 2019
Keir Starmer and Liz Truss may seem political and personality opposites, but the current prime minister’s decision to sack the most powerful civil servant in Britain, the cabinet secretary Chris Wormald, is redolent of her dismissal of the Treasury permanent Tom Scholar.
Because in both cases, Starmer and Truss saw these public servants as obstacles to all the great things they want to do as prime ministers.
There is one important difference. Truss never appointed Scholar. By contrast, Wormald was chosen by Starmer himself only just over a year ago.
It is fascinating how the Epstein scandal is so far taking down Brits and leaving far more exposed Americans unscathed. Maxwell is the only one in jail - British. Poor old randy Andy - British. Mandelson - British. Starmer - British and never even met Epstein - under pressure to go. Meanwhile on the newswires we have Trump commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying yes I went to Epstein Island, I don't remember why, but I did nothing wrong. He's going nowhere. Incredible, really.
But it’s precisely BECAUSE Epstein enticed so many rich powerful American men, from both parties, and from all kinds of backgrounds - arts to law, science to golf, cinema to finance - that no American man has yet fallen. Because the entire elite is implicated and they are all desperately protecting each other. I’m sure Democrats would love to get Trump on his Epstein connections, but, oh dear, Bill Clinton. Etc
The worst that seems to have happened to any American is a bit of mild embarrassment (Bill Gates, Noam Chomsky) and George Mitchell having his name removed from a scholarship programme. All probably too old or rich to care very much.
Or, in Chomsky's case, too dead.
Chomsky's not dead. He just looks it.
Gosh! You're right. That's a real Mandela effect there. I distinctly remember reading his obituary...
PS. If you can't look dead at 97 then when can you?
7% of the population, that's a Scottish subsample kind of size... I'm not sure I trust that claim at all.
The most quintessentially “public school person” on here is the slow witted Millfield alumnus and retired tampon ad executive @Roger
And whatever his faults, such as possessing the IQ of a daffodil, Roger has been loyally Labour throughout his PB years
So maybe the polling is right
This feels right to me. I know a fair few people who went to private school and they range from middling Lib Dems through establishment Labour to Corbynite Labour. One or two Tories but very much a minority.
Strange but true. Labour's support now runs at 40% + among the privately educated, according to Yougov. In fact, Labour poll best among the highest earners, Reform poll best among the lowest earners.
We will see some decidedly odd results, at the next election.
There was a council result in Stevenage a while back that made me think 'Lab hold Stevenage and lose Birkenhead' or some such weirdness
Hence the psychodrama on the left.
In the 20th century, there were barely enough places like Birkenhead, with the problems of Birkenhead, to sometimes deliver a Labour majority. As time has gone on, there are even fewer, so the opportunities are fewer. "Working people" in Britain today are much more like the people of Stevenage than the "beloved working class" of Lord Glasman's imagination.
There's a weird paradox here- by largely winning the "how shall we live together" battles of the 20th century, if not in the way they wanted, old Labour won and lost. The People largely got the health, welfare and housing that they wanted; a win. But having won that fight, they became rather irrelevant.
BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"
"I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"
The problem with this is that Boris also had a big mandate given to him by the British people. Starmer and pretty much everyone else agreed that that mandate did not overrule what was seen and serious wrong doing and pushed hard for a resignation which inevitably came.
Boris got 14m votes compared with 9.7m for Starmer, so he's starting from a much lower base to begin with, despite the big majority.
You really, really don't understand how the awful FPTP electoral system works do you?
Whatever theoretical criticisms you might have of the voting system, those numbers are far from meaningless.
Keir Starmer and Liz Truss may seem political and personality opposites, but the current prime minister’s decision to sack the most powerful civil servant in Britain, the cabinet secretary Chris Wormald, is redolent of her dismissal of the Treasury permanent Tom Scholar.
Because in both cases, Starmer and Truss saw these public servants as obstacles to all the great things they want to do as prime ministers.
There is one important difference. Truss never appointed Scholar. By contrast, Wormald was chosen by Starmer himself only just over a year ago.
In that case I am eagerly awaiting the most Conservative budget since 1986.
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
I see every Leaver's favourite Remoaner has also opined:
Asda and Marks and Spencer chief executive Lord Rose said in January last year that remote working policies had spawned a generation who are 'not doing proper work'.
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
And instructing individuals to have no regard for their work/life balance. What does arbeit macht Nigel? I'm sure struggling workers will be delighted they need to just work harder. Catnip to the wealthy and the retired, mind.
It is fascinating how the Epstein scandal is so far taking down Brits and leaving far more exposed Americans unscathed. Maxwell is the only one in jail - British. Poor old randy Andy - British. Mandelson - British. Starmer - British and never even met Epstein - under pressure to go. Meanwhile on the newswires we have Trump commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying yes I went to Epstein Island, I don't remember why, but I did nothing wrong. He's going nowhere. Incredible, really.
But it’s precisely BECAUSE Epstein enticed so many rich powerful American men, from both parties, and from all kinds of backgrounds - arts to law, science to golf, cinema to finance - that no American man has yet fallen. Because the entire elite is implicated and they are all desperately protecting each other. I’m sure Democrats would love to get Trump on his Epstein connections, but, oh dear, Bill Clinton. Etc
The worst that seems to have happened to any American is a bit of mild embarrassment (Bill Gates, Noam Chomsky) and George Mitchell having his name removed from a scholarship programme. All probably too old or rich to care very much.
Larry Summers had to resign from the board of OpenAI
Feel the man’s pain
As I’ve said before, I don’t think Epstein’s victims will get anything like justice in the USA until Epstein’s cohort of powerful men are out of power. Not least, Trump
Then there might be a proper reckoning. But by then many of the guilty dudes will be dead
BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"
"I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"
The problem with this is that Boris also had a big mandate given to him by the British people. Starmer and pretty much everyone else agreed that that mandate did not overrule what was seen and serious wrong doing and pushed hard for a resignation which inevitably came.
Boris got 14m votes compared with 9.7m for Starmer, so he's starting from a much lower base to begin with, despite the big majority.
You really, really don't understand how the awful FPTP electoral system works do you?
OTOH, having just finished Frank McDonough’s “The Weimar Years”, fully proportional representation doesn’t always work, either. Thanks for the book recommendation, BTW, Leon.
It is fascinating how the Epstein scandal is so far taking down Brits and leaving far more exposed Americans unscathed. Maxwell is the only one in jail - British. Poor old randy Andy - British. Mandelson - British. Starmer - British and never even met Epstein - under pressure to go. Meanwhile on the newswires we have Trump commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying yes I went to Epstein Island, I don't remember why, but I did nothing wrong. He's going nowhere. Incredible, really.
The reason is that the British are far more prurient than the Americans. Infact more than most nationalities with the possible exception of the Italians and even they see things differentlyl
(Incidentally, the Lake Washington school district includes a little farm town you may have heard of: Redmond.)
Last Thursday, I voted by marking my ballot with a black pen; on Friday, I deposited the ballot at a local post office. (I could have deposited it in the mail box outside my apartment, or in a large box by the Kirkland City Hall. I could even have voted in person by going to the county office, some miles away.)
(More in the next few days, including one post that I think Cyclefree and fitalass, among others, will find of interest.)
It is fascinating how the Epstein scandal is so far taking down Brits and leaving far more exposed Americans unscathed. Maxwell is the only one in jail - British. Poor old randy Andy - British. Mandelson - British. Starmer - British and never even met Epstein - under pressure to go. Meanwhile on the newswires we have Trump commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying yes I went to Epstein Island, I don't remember why, but I did nothing wrong. He's going nowhere. Incredible, really.
But it’s precisely BECAUSE Epstein enticed so many rich powerful American men, from both parties, and from all kinds of backgrounds - arts to law, science to golf, cinema to finance - that no American man has yet fallen. Because the entire elite is implicated and they are all desperately protecting each other. I’m sure Democrats would love to get Trump on his Epstein connections, but, oh dear, Bill Clinton. Etc
The worst that seems to have happened to any American is a bit of mild embarrassment (Bill Gates, Noam Chomsky) and George Mitchell having his name removed from a scholarship programme. All probably too old or rich to care very much.
Or, in Chomsky's case, too dead.
Chomsky's not dead. He just looks it.
Gosh! You're right. That's a real Mandela effect there. I distinctly remember reading his obituary...
PS. If you can't look dead at 97 then when can you?
I occasionally mixed him up with Jon Pilger who had a similar world view, perhaps that’s it.
BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"
"I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"
The problem with this is that Boris also had a big mandate given to him by the British people. Starmer and pretty much everyone else agreed that that mandate did not overrule what was seen and serious wrong doing and pushed hard for a resignation which inevitably came.
Boris got 14m votes compared with 9.7m for Starmer, so he's starting from a much lower base to begin with, despite the big majority.
Forget Boris, Corbyn managed to get a half million more votes than Starmer.
3.2 million more in 2017.
I don't get out much nowadays but in 2024 I net several people who said that they were not going to vote 'this time'!
It is fascinating how the Epstein scandal is so far taking down Brits and leaving far more exposed Americans unscathed. Maxwell is the only one in jail - British. Poor old randy Andy - British. Mandelson - British. Starmer - British and never even met Epstein - under pressure to go. Meanwhile on the newswires we have Trump commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying yes I went to Epstein Island, I don't remember why, but I did nothing wrong. He's going nowhere. Incredible, really.
But it’s precisely BECAUSE Epstein enticed so many rich powerful American men, from both parties, and from all kinds of backgrounds - arts to law, science to golf, cinema to finance - that no American man has yet fallen. Because the entire elite is implicated and they are all desperately protecting each other. I’m sure Democrats would love to get Trump on his Epstein connections, but, oh dear, Bill Clinton. Etc
The worst that seems to have happened to any American is a bit of mild embarrassment (Bill Gates, Noam Chomsky) and George Mitchell having his name removed from a scholarship programme. All probably too old or rich to care very much.
Or, in Chomsky's case, too dead.
Chomsky's not dead. He just looks it.
Gosh! You're right. That's a real Mandela effect there. I distinctly remember reading his obituary...
PS. If you can't look dead at 97 then when can you?
There were some fake 'Noam is dead' stories floating about a few years ago, so perhaps that messed with your brain a bit.
BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"
"I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"
The problem with this is that Boris also had a big mandate given to him by the British people. Starmer and pretty much everyone else agreed that that mandate did not overrule what was seen and serious wrong doing and pushed hard for a resignation which inevitably came.
Boris got 14m votes compared with 9.7m for Starmer, so he's starting from a much lower base to begin with, despite the big majority.
You really, really don't understand how the awful FPTP electoral system works do you?
OTOH, having just finished Frank McDonough’s “The Weimar Years”, fully proportional representation doesn’t always work, either. Thanks for the book recommendation, BTW, Leon.
BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"
"I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"
The problem with this is that Boris also had a big mandate given to him by the British people. Starmer and pretty much everyone else agreed that that mandate did not overrule what was seen and serious wrong doing and pushed hard for a resignation which inevitably came.
Boris got 14m votes compared with 9.7m for Starmer, so he's starting from a much lower base to begin with, despite the big majority.
Forget Boris, Corbyn managed to get a half million more votes than Starmer.
3.2 million more in 2017.
I don't get out much nowadays but in 2024 I net several people who said that they were not going to vote 'this time'!
I voted in 2024 with the least enthusiasm of my adult life. Part of the problem was that there was no one I could vote "for." I voted against someone, pointlessly, as I had anticipated. It was unfulfilling.
Binance—Whose Founder Was Pardoned—Now Holds 87% Of Trump’s Stablecoin
The USP of crypto is to facilitate plausibly (very loosely defined) deniable bribes and large scale money laundering.
That’s not really true.
While those are features, the main point is to fleece suckers with an asymmetrical market. So they can’t even escape during the dump of a pump-and-dump.
That's not really a sustainable selling point, though. In the other use cases, both sides of the transaction are satisfied.
Why would you need a sustained relationship after the rubes have been fleeced to the last follicle?
Surely abandoning the now broke rubes for new ones is better plan?
It is fascinating how the Epstein scandal is so far taking down Brits and leaving far more exposed Americans unscathed. Maxwell is the only one in jail - British. Poor old randy Andy - British. Mandelson - British. Starmer - British and never even met Epstein - under pressure to go. Meanwhile on the newswires we have Trump commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying yes I went to Epstein Island, I don't remember why, but I did nothing wrong. He's going nowhere. Incredible, really.
The Clinton involvement with Epstein means for the US it's closer to a case of mutually assured destruction than over here. Neither party wants that level of tarnish.
I don't think that's true.
The saving grace for Bill Clinton, possibly (let's see what comes up at his Congressional appearance), is that he cut off contact with Epstein around 2003, long before Epstein's first arrest in 2008 (although Ghislaine was at Chelsea Clinton's wedding in 2010), and long before others stopped seeing him (Donald Trump 2007 {according to Trump, but a 2016 contact is alleged}, Howard Lutnick 2012, Elon Musk 2014, Steve Bannon 2019).
More broadly, the connections with Democrats (Clinton, but see also George Mitchell) are with an older generation of Democrat politicians, while the connections with Republicans are with current Republican figures. The current Democratic party doesn't mind throwing Bill Clinton to the wolves, and the like of Ro Khanna are absolutely going after, e.g., Lutnick. The problem for the Democrats is that they control neither the House nor the Senate, nor obviously the Executive. The DoJ is controlled by Trump and refuses to investigate anyone. The Dems needed Republican rebels in the House to support them to get the files released.
It's not the Democrats being squeamish. It's the Republicans in power who are trying to avoid the issue.
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
Remember that Reform voters mostly want a nanny state.
The key thing is that nanny will give sweeties to those who deserve them and a sound spanking to naughty boys and girls.
....and we come full circle to Epstein.
The rumours about Epstein still being alive are fascinating to watch, as they grow and grow
And, given how bizarre this story is, in the first place (“billionaire private pedo island for US presidents and British princes”) I don’t entirely dismiss them. It does solve the profound mystery of his suicide/murder. It’s no longer a mystery because he’s STILL ALIVE
Interesting that pundit Daniel Finkelstein thinks Big Dom’s analysis of the public mood is correct
His analysis is usually fairly accurate.
The issue is because it's quite superficial his solutions veer from the inane to the insane.
He says these are the views of swing voters, the views to me suggest a group consisting broadly of 2019 Tory, 2024 Labour voters now considering Reform. Thats a plurality of the electorate but not a 2029 defining one.
Its not really possible to properly 'weight' focus groups, but it doesnt matter as its not meant to be a poll, its feedback. Swing voters by their nature are more likely to be disatisfied. Thats why they swing .
It is fascinating how the Epstein scandal is so far taking down Brits and leaving far more exposed Americans unscathed. Maxwell is the only one in jail - British. Poor old randy Andy - British. Mandelson - British. Starmer - British and never even met Epstein - under pressure to go. Meanwhile on the newswires we have Trump commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying yes I went to Epstein Island, I don't remember why, but I did nothing wrong. He's going nowhere. Incredible, really.
The reason is that the British are far more prurient than the Americans. Infact more than most nationalities with the possible exception of the Italians and even they see things differentlyl
I am not sure the Italians are prurient. All Italian men I knew back in the day seemed to to spend their siestas with their secretaries while their wives all had tradesmen lovers. Maybe once the libido declines they become more interested in other people's affairs.
BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"
"I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"
The problem with this is that Boris also had a big mandate given to him by the British people. Starmer and pretty much everyone else agreed that that mandate did not overrule what was seen and serious wrong doing and pushed hard for a resignation which inevitably came.
Boris got 14m votes compared with 9.7m for Starmer, so he's starting from a much lower base to begin with, despite the big majority.
Forget Boris, Corbyn managed to get a half million more votes than Starmer.
3.2 million more in 2017.
I don't get out much nowadays but in 2024 I net several people who said that they were not going to vote 'this time'!
I voted in 2024 with the least enthusiasm of my adult life. Part of the problem was that there was no one I could vote "for." I voted against someone, pointlessly, as I had anticipated. It was unfulfilling.
I'd say 2019 was worse. That really was Alien-Predator. Wanting to destroy both of them but only having one bullet. Opting out really wasn't an option.
Sunak was a better man than Johnson, just bedraggled. Starmer was better than Corbyn, just about to be bedraggled.
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
Remember that Reform voters mostly want a nanny state.
The key thing is that nanny will give sweeties to those who deserve them and a sound spanking to naughty boys and girls.
....and we come full circle to Epstein.
The rumours about Epstein still being alive are fascinating to watch, as they grow and grow
And, given how bizarre this story is, in the first place (“billionaire private pedo island for US presidents and British princes”) I don’t entirely dismiss them. It does solve the profound mystery of his suicide/murder. It’s no longer a mystery because he’s STILL ALIVE
I think it is much, much more likely that he is dead. He had too many holds over too many people in positions of power. Murdering him was the simple option. The idea that it was suicide is frankly laughable.
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
Remember that Reform voters mostly want a nanny state.
The key thing is that nanny will give sweeties to those who deserve them and a sound spanking to naughty boys and girls.
....and we come full circle to Epstein.
The rumours about Epstein still being alive are fascinating to watch, as they grow and grow
And, given how bizarre this story is, in the first place (“billionaire private pedo island for US presidents and British princes”) I don’t entirely dismiss them. It does solve the profound mystery of his suicide/murder. It’s no longer a mystery because he’s STILL ALIVE
My son was telling me this yesterday. He likes to report nonsense conspiracy theories he has seen on Tiktok as fact as he knows it is highly effective ragebait to use on me.
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
I see every Leaver's favourite Remoaner has also opined:
Asda and Marks and Spencer chief executive Lord Rose said in January last year that remote working policies had spawned a generation who are 'not doing proper work'.
He was right when he said Brexit would give everyone a wage increase and he'll be right again!
If you strip away the culture war bullshit
1) some jobs can be done with certain amounts of WFH. 2) this varies between 0% and 100% depending on the job 3) it further varies according to the phase of the work - a team working on a long term project with stable membership vs a team being assembled (say! 4) it further varies according to the management methodology and the quality of its implementation. 5) it further varies according to the technical assistance put in by the company and the employee 6) if further varies according to the level of motivation of the employee and employee.
So if you are doing steady development work in IT, using Agile, with high quality technical support (VMs, messaging and collaboration tools) with a good quality management and colleagues. And everyone has a nice home office setup… then Yay!
If you have a bullshit job where everyone has been told to fuck off home, log in from their own computer somehow (laptop balanced on the ironing board), with no collaboration setup or feedback. And management are incompetent and don’t give a shit… then nothing will get done.
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
Remember that Reform voters mostly want a nanny state.
The key thing is that nanny will give sweeties to those who deserve them and a sound spanking to naughty boys and girls.
....and we come full circle to Epstein.
The rumours about Epstein still being alive are fascinating to watch, as they grow and grow
And, given how bizarre this story is, in the first place (“billionaire private pedo island for US presidents and British princes”) I don’t entirely dismiss them. It does solve the profound mystery of his suicide/murder. It’s no longer a mystery because he’s STILL ALIVE
It's a shame we don't know any salacious international print journalists who could camp out in Tel Aviv and get a bigger story than the Watergate cover up.
BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"
"I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"
The problem with this is that Boris also had a big mandate given to him by the British people. Starmer and pretty much everyone else agreed that that mandate did not overrule what was seen and serious wrong doing and pushed hard for a resignation which inevitably came.
Boris got 14m votes compared with 9.7m for Starmer, so he's starting from a much lower base to begin with, despite the big majority.
Forget Boris, Corbyn managed to get a half million more votes than Starmer.
3.2 million more in 2017.
I don't get out much nowadays but in 2024 I net several people who said that they were not going to vote 'this time'!
I voted in 2024 with the least enthusiasm of my adult life. Part of the problem was that there was no one I could vote "for." I voted against someone, pointlessly, as I had anticipated. It was unfulfilling.
I'd say 2019 was worse. That really was Alien-Predator. Wanting to destroy both of them but only having one bullet. Opting out really wasn't an option.
Sunak was a better man than Johnson, just bedraggled. Starmer was better than Corbyn, just about to be bedraggled.
I didn't feel that in 2019. I felt rage against those dishonest remainers who failed to implement the choice made by the British people because they "knew better." Arrogant sods. It was a pleasure to see every single one of them lose their seats. The Parliament that ended in 2019 was an absolute disgrace and it was important that they were cleared out.
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
Remember that Reform voters mostly want a nanny state.
The key thing is that nanny will give sweeties to those who deserve them and a sound spanking to naughty boys and girls.
....and we come full circle to Epstein.
The rumours about Epstein still being alive are fascinating to watch, as they grow and grow
And, given how bizarre this story is, in the first place (“billionaire private pedo island for US presidents and British princes”) I don’t entirely dismiss them. It does solve the profound mystery of his suicide/murder. It’s no longer a mystery because he’s STILL ALIVE
I think it is much, much more likely that he is dead. He had too many holds over too many people in positions of power. Murdering him was the simple option. The idea that it was suicide is frankly laughable.
I've always assumed it was a Frank Pentangeli-style suicide (indeed we know Trump's gang have previously referenced that). I wonder if Epstein had secret children he was trying to protect. Something like that.
It is fascinating how the Epstein scandal is so far taking down Brits and leaving far more exposed Americans unscathed. Maxwell is the only one in jail - British. Poor old randy Andy - British. Mandelson - British. Starmer - British and never even met Epstein - under pressure to go. Meanwhile on the newswires we have Trump commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying yes I went to Epstein Island, I don't remember why, but I did nothing wrong. He's going nowhere. Incredible, really.
The Clinton involvement with Epstein means for the US it's closer to a case of mutually assured destruction than over here. Neither party wants that level of tarnish.
I don't think that's true.
The saving grace for Bill Clinton, possibly (let's see what comes up at his Congressional appearance), is that he cut off contact with Epstein around 2003, long before Epstein's first arrest in 2008 (although Ghislaine was at Chelsea Clinton's wedding in 2010), and long before others stopped seeing him (Donald Trump 2007 {according to Trump, but a 2016 contact is alleged}, Howard Lutnick 2012, Elon Musk 2014, Steve Bannon 2019).
More broadly, the connections with Democrats (Clinton, but see also George Mitchell) are with an older generation of Democrat politicians, while the connections with Republicans are with current Republican figures. The current Democratic party doesn't mind throwing Bill Clinton to the wolves, and the like of Ro Khanna are absolutely going after, e.g., Lutnick. The problem for the Democrats is that they control neither the House nor the Senate, nor obviously the Executive. The DoJ is controlled by Trump and refuses to investigate anyone. The Dems needed Republican rebels in the House to support them to get the files released.
It's not the Democrats being squeamish. It's the Republicans in power who are trying to avoid the issue.
Totally agree.
If anything the way the executive in the US has got the Department of Justice dancing to its tune is probably one of the more concerning aspects of the current administration.
Clearly - absent a major shock - the current White House isn’t going to let the DoJ or any other authority go after any individual in the files. They are after all the files the DoJ have been sat on. If they subsequently start an investigation then they would have to explain why they aren’t looking into all of the names on the summary slide - i.e. including the President and his Commerce Secretary.
In todays Guardian there's an article headlined 'Spanish is clearly now the world’s coolest language. So why do we push children to learn French?' The writer points out that Spanish is much more useful than French. When I was at secondary school we did French and Latin in the first year, then added either German or Spanish in the second. In the fourth year if one did Science, as I did, one dropped Latin. I did German because I (and my father) thought it was 'the language of science'. I'm sure I'd have been better off doing Spanish.
BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"
"I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"
The problem with this is that Boris also had a big mandate given to him by the British people. Starmer and pretty much everyone else agreed that that mandate did not overrule what was seen and serious wrong doing and pushed hard for a resignation which inevitably came.
Boris got 14m votes compared with 9.7m for Starmer, so he's starting from a much lower base to begin with, despite the big majority.
Forget Boris, Corbyn managed to get a half million more votes than Starmer.
3.2 million more in 2017.
I don't get out much nowadays but in 2024 I net several people who said that they were not going to vote 'this time'!
I voted in 2024 with the least enthusiasm of my adult life. Part of the problem was that there was no one I could vote "for." I voted against someone, pointlessly, as I had anticipated. It was unfulfilling.
I'd say 2019 was worse. That really was Alien-Predator. Wanting to destroy both of them but only having one bullet. Opting out really wasn't an option.
Sunak was a better man than Johnson, just bedraggled. Starmer was better than Corbyn, just about to be bedraggled.
I didn't feel that in 2019. I felt rage against those dishonest remainers who failed to implement the choice made by the British people because they "knew better." Arrogant sods. It was a pleasure to see every single one of them lose their seats. The Parliament that ended in 2019 was an absolute disgrace and it was important that they were cleared out.
What I remember is that Boris called the election because he didn't want a debate on his deal, then after Brexit happened had the gall to say he had to break the deal because they didn't have enough time to go through it!
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
It was conducted by Merlin Strategy, a member of the BPC. I thought members of the BPC were afforded respect here
Are you doubting their integrity.
Just because you may not like who commissioned it does not make it wrong.
I’ve read the whole Cummings post and find the attitudes of the people in the focus group hard to disagree with (with a few exceptions)
I think some of it is problematic. For example the question around immigration asks the surveyees to estimate emigration since January 2021, and then pivots it to 'Conservative and Labour have not done enough', whilst afaics not mentioning that net immigration is 80% down between summer 2023 and summer 2025 in either the question or the twitter essay.
I hope that BPC standards are such that that is not up to scratch. I wonder if the attitudes would be the same had they asked for estimates of immigration since summer 2024 or in the last 12 months.
In reality net immigration is back to what it was before the post-Brexit hump, and some are trying politically to keep it central beyond its sell-by date.
(I'm not commenting on Merlin Strategy, run by Scarlett Maguire; I don't know enough to comment.)
You still don’t understand do you?
The argument has gone beyond “immigration is too high” and on to “there are far too many immigrants HERE”
So net migration could drop to zero and you’d still have an awful lot of people deeply concerned about “immigration” - amongst them the Home Secretary, who is promising to toughen up the laws on the right to remain in the UK for the Boriswave
ie - people already HERE
I read Dom's latest effusion, or at least tried to, (tbf, he is very thought-provoking) and one of his points about immigration is the number of incomers from the "very worst places", ie, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc. Young men from war-torn countries with heritage views about women, religion, etc. By inference his point is if you import people from areas where radical Islamism is a thing, you are likely to be importing radical Islamism.
He does have a point.
Well, yeah, derrrrrr
Is this some amazing surprise to you? Who did you think we were importing from the Middle East? Lib Dem voting feminists?
Up to a point, but many of those coming here are escaping oppressive theocratic regimes like the Taliban rather than seeking to establish similar regimes here. Refugees from the Taliban are not the Taliban, just as refugees from the Nazis were not Nazis.
If you bet against this outcome - Starmer exiting this year - remember you are betting against the Wisdom of Crowds. And, as Sir Francis Galton noted, that is generally a bad move
The wisdom of the crowds said Labour/Ed Miliband would win the 2015 GE.
If you bet against this outcome - Starmer exiting this year - remember you are betting against the Wisdom of Crowds. And, as Sir Francis Galton noted, that is generally a bad move
At about 11pm on the night of the EU Referendum the odds on Leave were 10/1 against. The crowds are not necessarily wise.
However, ISTR that while the volume of money favoured Remain, the number of bets favoured Leave. The crowds were right. But people betting Remain bet with much bigger stakes.
Probably OT. for all that some might like Owen Jones Tucker Carlson for all his right-wingery is a cut better than anyone we have in the UK. My guess is he writes his own material.too
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
It was conducted by Merlin Strategy, a member of the BPC. I thought members of the BPC were afforded respect here
Are you doubting their integrity.
Just because you may not like who commissioned it does not make it wrong.
I’ve read the whole Cummings post and find the attitudes of the people in the focus group hard to disagree with (with a few exceptions)
I think some of it is problematic. For example the question around immigration asks the surveyees to estimate emigration since January 2021, and then pivots it to 'Conservative and Labour have not done enough', whilst afaics not mentioning that net immigration is 80% down between summer 2023 and summer 2025 in either the question or the twitter essay.
I hope that BPC standards are such that that is not up to scratch. I wonder if the attitudes would be the same had they asked for estimates of immigration since summer 2024 or in the last 12 months.
In reality net immigration is back to what it was before the post-Brexit hump, and some are trying politically to keep it central beyond its sell-by date.
(I'm not commenting on Merlin Strategy, run by Scarlett Maguire; I don't know enough to comment.)
You still don’t understand do you?
The argument has gone beyond “immigration is too high” and on to “there are far too many immigrants HERE”
So net migration could drop to zero and you’d still have an awful lot of people deeply concerned about “immigration” - amongst them the Home Secretary, who is promising to toughen up the laws on the right to remain in the UK for the Boriswave
ie - people already HERE
I read Dom's latest effusion, or at least tried to, (tbf, he is very thought-provoking) and one of his points about immigration is the number of incomers from the "very worst places", ie, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc. Young men from war-torn countries with heritage views about women, religion, etc. By inference his point is if you import people from areas where radical Islamism is a thing, you are likely to be importing radical Islamism.
He does have a point.
Well, yeah, derrrrrr
Is this some amazing surprise to you? Who did you think we were importing from the Middle East? Lib Dem voting feminists?
Up to a point, but many of those coming here are escaping oppressive theocratic regimes like the Taliban rather than seeking to establish similar regimes here. Refugees from the Taliban are not the Taliban, just as refugees from the Nazis were not Nazis.
If you bet against this outcome - Starmer exiting this year - remember you are betting against the Wisdom of Crowds. And, as Sir Francis Galton noted, that is generally a bad move
At about 11pm on the night of the EU Referendum the odds on Leave were 10/1 against. The crowds are not necessarily wise.
However, ISTR that while the volume of money favoured Remain, the number of bets favoured Leave. The crowds were right. But people betting Remain bet with much bigger stakes.
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
Remember that Reform voters mostly want a nanny state.
The key thing is that nanny will give sweeties to those who deserve them and a sound spanking to naughty boys and girls.
....and we come full circle to Epstein.
The rumours about Epstein still being alive are fascinating to watch, as they grow and grow
And, given how bizarre this story is, in the first place (“billionaire private pedo island for US presidents and British princes”) I don’t entirely dismiss them. It does solve the profound mystery of his suicide/murder. It’s no longer a mystery because he’s STILL ALIVE
I think it is much, much more likely that he is dead. He had too many holds over too many people in positions of power. Murdering him was the simple option. The idea that it was suicide is frankly laughable.
I've always assumed it was a Frank Pentangeli-style suicide (indeed we know Trump's gang have previously referenced that). I wonder if Epstein had secret children he was trying to protect. Something like that.
Epstein died to protect children? Now that really is a conspiracy theory.
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
Remember that Reform voters mostly want a nanny state.
The key thing is that nanny will give sweeties to those who deserve them and a sound spanking to naughty boys and girls.
....and we come full circle to Epstein.
The rumours about Epstein still being alive are fascinating to watch, as they grow and grow
And, given how bizarre this story is, in the first place (“billionaire private pedo island for US presidents and British princes”) I don’t entirely dismiss them. It does solve the profound mystery of his suicide/murder. It’s no longer a mystery because he’s STILL ALIVE
My son was telling me this yesterday. He likes to report nonsense conspiracy theories he has seen on Tiktok as fact as he knows it is highly effective ragebait to use on me.
We used to think the idea that there was a global network of pedophiles pulling the strings of world government and that pizza was somehow connected was a nonsense conspiracy theory. Yes, the details were all wrong, but my mind still boggles that even some of the fundamentals have turned out to be true.
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
Remember that Reform voters mostly want a nanny state.
The key thing is that nanny will give sweeties to those who deserve them and a sound spanking to naughty boys and girls.
....and we come full circle to Epstein.
The rumours about Epstein still being alive are fascinating to watch, as they grow and grow
And, given how bizarre this story is, in the first place (“billionaire private pedo island for US presidents and British princes”) I don’t entirely dismiss them. It does solve the profound mystery of his suicide/murder. It’s no longer a mystery because he’s STILL ALIVE
I think it is much, much more likely that he is dead. He had too many holds over too many people in positions of power. Murdering him was the simple option. The idea that it was suicide is frankly laughable.
I've always assumed it was a Frank Pentangeli-style suicide (indeed we know Trump's gang have previously referenced that). I wonder if Epstein had secret children he was trying to protect. Something like that.
You may be right, I just don't think so. He always struck me as a tad selfish.
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
It was conducted by Merlin Strategy, a member of the BPC. I thought members of the BPC were afforded respect here
Are you doubting their integrity.
Just because you may not like who commissioned it does not make it wrong.
I’ve read the whole Cummings post and find the attitudes of the people in the focus group hard to disagree with (with a few exceptions)
I think some of it is problematic. For example the question around immigration asks the surveyees to estimate emigration since January 2021, and then pivots it to 'Conservative and Labour have not done enough', whilst afaics not mentioning that net immigration is 80% down between summer 2023 and summer 2025 in either the question or the twitter essay.
I hope that BPC standards are such that that is not up to scratch. I wonder if the attitudes would be the same had they asked for estimates of immigration since summer 2024 or in the last 12 months.
In reality net immigration is back to what it was before the post-Brexit hump, and some are trying politically to keep it central beyond its sell-by date.
(I'm not commenting on Merlin Strategy, run by Scarlett Maguire; I don't know enough to comment.)
You still don’t understand do you?
The argument has gone beyond “immigration is too high” and on to “there are far too many immigrants HERE”
So net migration could drop to zero and you’d still have an awful lot of people deeply concerned about “immigration” - amongst them the Home Secretary, who is promising to toughen up the laws on the right to remain in the UK for the Boriswave
ie - people already HERE
I read Dom's latest effusion, or at least tried to, (tbf, he is very thought-provoking) and one of his points about immigration is the number of incomers from the "very worst places", ie, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc. Young men from war-torn countries with heritage views about women, religion, etc. By inference his point is if you import people from areas where radical Islamism is a thing, you are likely to be importing radical Islamism.
He does have a point.
Well, yeah, derrrrrr
Is this some amazing surprise to you? Who did you think we were importing from the Middle East? Lib Dem voting feminists?
Up to a point, but many of those coming here are escaping oppressive theocratic regimes like the Taliban rather than seeking to establish similar regimes here. Refugees from the Taliban are not the Taliban, just as refugees from the Nazis were not Nazis.
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
Remember that Reform voters mostly want a nanny state.
The key thing is that nanny will give sweeties to those who deserve them and a sound spanking to naughty boys and girls.
....and we come full circle to Epstein.
The rumours about Epstein still being alive are fascinating to watch, as they grow and grow
And, given how bizarre this story is, in the first place (“billionaire private pedo island for US presidents and British princes”) I don’t entirely dismiss them. It does solve the profound mystery of his suicide/murder. It’s no longer a mystery because he’s STILL ALIVE
I think it is much, much more likely that he is dead. He had too many holds over too many people in positions of power. Murdering him was the simple option. The idea that it was suicide is frankly laughable.
I've always assumed it was a Frank Pentangeli-style suicide (indeed we know Trump's gang have previously referenced that). I wonder if Epstein had secret children he was trying to protect. Something like that.
You may be right, I just don't think so. He always struck me as a tad selfish.
In todays Guardian there's an article headlined 'Spanish is clearly now the world’s coolest language. So why do we push children to learn French?' The writer points out that Spanish is much more useful than French. When I was at secondary school we did French and Latin in the first year, then added either German or Spanish in the second. In the fourth year if one did Science, as I did, one dropped Latin. I did German because I (and my father) thought it was 'the language of science'. I'm sure I'd have been better off doing Spanish.
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
Remember that Reform voters mostly want a nanny state.
The key thing is that nanny will give sweeties to those who deserve them and a sound spanking to naughty boys and girls.
....and we come full circle to Epstein.
The rumours about Epstein still being alive are fascinating to watch, as they grow and grow
And, given how bizarre this story is, in the first place (“billionaire private pedo island for US presidents and British princes”) I don’t entirely dismiss them. It does solve the profound mystery of his suicide/murder. It’s no longer a mystery because he’s STILL ALIVE
I think it is much, much more likely that he is dead. He had too many holds over too many people in positions of power. Murdering him was the simple option. The idea that it was suicide is frankly laughable.
I've always assumed it was a Frank Pentangeli-style suicide (indeed we know Trump's gang have previously referenced that). I wonder if Epstein had secret children he was trying to protect. Something like that.
You may be right, I just don't think so. He always struck me as a tad selfish.
Sent you a PM yesterday David.
Yes I got it and replied this morning. Well done you on acknowledging it. It had completely passed me by.
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
Remember that Reform voters mostly want a nanny state.
The key thing is that nanny will give sweeties to those who deserve them and a sound spanking to naughty boys and girls.
....and we come full circle to Epstein.
The rumours about Epstein still being alive are fascinating to watch, as they grow and grow
And, given how bizarre this story is, in the first place (“billionaire private pedo island for US presidents and British princes”) I don’t entirely dismiss them. It does solve the profound mystery of his suicide/murder. It’s no longer a mystery because he’s STILL ALIVE
My son was telling me this yesterday. He likes to report nonsense conspiracy theories he has seen on Tiktok as fact as he knows it is highly effective ragebait to use on me.
We used to think the idea that there was a global network of pedophiles pulling the strings of world government and that pizza was somehow connected was a nonsense conspiracy theory. Yes, the details were all wrong, but my mind still boggles that even some of the fundamentals have turned out to be true.
Unfortunately, the folk pushing that theory enthusiastically elected one of them President. So that's alright then.
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
Remember that Reform voters mostly want a nanny state.
The key thing is that nanny will give sweeties to those who deserve them and a sound spanking to naughty boys and girls.
....and we come full circle to Epstein.
The rumours about Epstein still being alive are fascinating to watch, as they grow and grow
And, given how bizarre this story is, in the first place (“billionaire private pedo island for US presidents and British princes”) I don’t entirely dismiss them. It does solve the profound mystery of his suicide/murder. It’s no longer a mystery because he’s STILL ALIVE
I think it is much, much more likely that he is dead. He had too many holds over too many people in positions of power. Murdering him was the simple option. The idea that it was suicide is frankly laughable.
I've always assumed it was a Frank Pentangeli-style suicide (indeed we know Trump's gang have previously referenced that). I wonder if Epstein had secret children he was trying to protect. Something like that.
Epstein died to protect children? Now that really is a conspiracy theory.
If you bet against this outcome - Starmer exiting this year - remember you are betting against the Wisdom of Crowds. And, as Sir Francis Galton noted, that is generally a bad move
The wisdom of the crowds said Labour/Ed Miliband would win the 2015 GE.
Probably OT. for all that some might like Owen Jones Tucker Carlson for all his right-wingery is a cut better than anyone we have in the UK. My guess is he writes his own material.too
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
I see every Leaver's favourite Remoaner has also opined:
Asda and Marks and Spencer chief executive Lord Rose said in January last year that remote working policies had spawned a generation who are 'not doing proper work'.
He was right when he said Brexit would give everyone a wage increase and he'll be right again!
If you strip away the culture war bullshit
1) some jobs can be done with certain amounts of WFH. 2) this varies between 0% and 100% depending on the job 3) it further varies according to the phase of the work - a team working on a long term project with stable membership vs a team being assembled (say! 4) it further varies according to the management methodology and the quality of its implementation. 5) it further varies according to the technical assistance put in by the company and the employee 6) if further varies according to the level of motivation of the employee and employee.
So if you are doing steady development work in IT, using Agile, with high quality technical support (VMs, messaging and collaboration tools) with a good quality management and colleagues. And everyone has a nice home office setup… then Yay!
If you have a bullshit job where everyone has been told to fuck off home, log in from their own computer somehow (laptop balanced on the ironing board), with no collaboration setup or feedback. And management are incompetent and don’t give a shit… then nothing will get done.
I’ve encountered both.
Back in the 20th Century there were surveys and experiments showing work was best done in private offices rather than open plan where concentration was constantly broken by noise more than interruptions. Management saw offices as status symbols, with open plan for the riff-raff. WFH often reverses that.
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
Remember that Reform voters mostly want a nanny state.
The key thing is that nanny will give sweeties to those who deserve them and a sound spanking to naughty boys and girls.
....and we come full circle to Epstein.
The rumours about Epstein still being alive are fascinating to watch, as they grow and grow
And, given how bizarre this story is, in the first place (“billionaire private pedo island for US presidents and British princes”) I don’t entirely dismiss them. It does solve the profound mystery of his suicide/murder. It’s no longer a mystery because he’s STILL ALIVE
I think it is much, much more likely that he is dead. He had too many holds over too many people in positions of power. Murdering him was the simple option. The idea that it was suicide is frankly laughable.
I've always assumed it was a Frank Pentangeli-style suicide (indeed we know Trump's gang have previously referenced that). I wonder if Epstein had secret children he was trying to protect. Something like that.
Epstein died to protect children? Now that really is a conspiracy theory.
I’d like to think there were a lot fewer abused kids after Epstein carked it but I fear the paedo is always with us.
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
Remember that Reform voters mostly want a nanny state.
The key thing is that nanny will give sweeties to those who deserve them and a sound spanking to naughty boys and girls.
....and we come full circle to Epstein.
The rumours about Epstein still being alive are fascinating to watch, as they grow and grow
And, given how bizarre this story is, in the first place (“billionaire private pedo island for US presidents and British princes”) I don’t entirely dismiss them. It does solve the profound mystery of his suicide/murder. It’s no longer a mystery because he’s STILL ALIVE
I think it is much, much more likely that he is dead. He had too many holds over too many people in positions of power. Murdering him was the simple option. The idea that it was suicide is frankly laughable.
I've always assumed it was a Frank Pentangeli-style suicide (indeed we know Trump's gang have previously referenced that). I wonder if Epstein had secret children he was trying to protect. Something like that.
Epstein died to protect children? Now that really is a conspiracy theory.
I’d like to think there were a lot fewer abused kids after Epstein carked it but I fear the paedo is always with us.
If social media reports are to be believed feel very scared for the teenage girls of Tel Aviv.
In todays Guardian there's an article headlined 'Spanish is clearly now the world’s coolest language. So why do we push children to learn French?' The writer points out that Spanish is much more useful than French. When I was at secondary school we did French and Latin in the first year, then added either German or Spanish in the second. In the fourth year if one did Science, as I did, one dropped Latin. I did German because I (and my father) thought it was 'the language of science'. I'm sure I'd have been better off doing Spanish.
The enemy was relying on dodgy Starlink connections and very long supply routes, there’s now stories of even officers deserting or surrendering in the past few days.
In todays Guardian there's an article headlined 'Spanish is clearly now the world’s coolest language. So why do we push children to learn French?' The writer points out that Spanish is much more useful than French. When I was at secondary school we did French and Latin in the first year, then added either German or Spanish in the second. In the fourth year if one did Science, as I did, one dropped Latin. I did German because I (and my father) thought it was 'the language of science'. I'm sure I'd have been better off doing Spanish.
In todays Guardian there's an article headlined 'Spanish is clearly now the world’s coolest language. So why do we push children to learn French?' The writer points out that Spanish is much more useful than French. When I was at secondary school we did French and Latin in the first year, then added either German or Spanish in the second. In the fourth year if one did Science, as I did, one dropped Latin. I did German because I (and my father) thought it was 'the language of science'. I'm sure I'd have been better off doing Spanish.
Okay, so not only are the Russians losing ground and surrendering, but Russia is also now trying to block Telegram - where much of the criticism of the operation has been going down in the past few days.
In todays Guardian there's an article headlined 'Spanish is clearly now the world’s coolest language. So why do we push children to learn French?' The writer points out that Spanish is much more useful than French. When I was at secondary school we did French and Latin in the first year, then added either German or Spanish in the second. In the fourth year if one did Science, as I did, one dropped Latin. I did German because I (and my father) thought it was 'the language of science'. I'm sure I'd have been better off doing Spanish.
The future's bright. The future's orange. Well. Mandarin anyways.
Chinese and Russian are popular subjects at public schools. I don't know about the state sector.
Very often that is Chinese and Russian children studying them because it's a fairly straightforward way of getting a top A-level grade.
Also the same in the state sector, students are often encouraged to stay their/their parents' native language to A Level if it can be facilitated. Never had a Russian native speaker, but plenty of Chinese, Italian, Spanish and Polish speakers.
(Only been defeated once, when the student spoke fluent Swedish - his mum was from Stockholm - sadly there is no A Level).
Comments
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
In the other use cases, both sides of the transaction are satisfied.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noam_Chomsky
https://x.com/Peston/status/2021237335229088142
Keir Starmer and Liz Truss may seem political and personality opposites, but the current prime minister’s decision to sack the most powerful civil servant in Britain, the cabinet secretary Chris Wormald, is redolent of her dismissal of the Treasury permanent Tom Scholar.
Because in both cases, Starmer and Truss saw these public servants as obstacles to all the great things they want to do as prime ministers.
There is one important difference. Truss never appointed Scholar. By contrast, Wormald was chosen by Starmer himself only just over a year ago.
That's a real Mandela effect there. I distinctly remember reading his obituary...
PS. If you can't look dead at 97 then when can you?
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2021235147253731615?s=20
Youre shit.
Asda and Marks and Spencer chief executive Lord Rose said in January last year that remote working policies had spawned a generation who are 'not doing proper work'.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/nigel-farage-calls-for-an-end-to-working-from-home-5HjdS8n_2/
He was right when he said Brexit would give everyone a wage increase and he'll be right again!
What does arbeit macht Nigel?
I'm sure struggling workers will be delighted they need to just work harder.
Catnip to the wealthy and the retired, mind.
Feel the man’s pain
As I’ve said before, I don’t think Epstein’s victims will get anything like justice in the USA until Epstein’s cohort of powerful men are out of power. Not least, Trump
Then there might be a proper reckoning. But by then many of the guilty dudes will be dead
The key thing is that nanny will give sweeties to those who deserve them and a sound spanking to naughty boys and girls.
Today is election day here in King County, Washington:
https://kingcounty.gov/en/dept/elections/election-information/2026/february-special
(Which means, since we are a vote-by-mail state, that today is the last day we can deposit our ballots. Probably, most ballots have already been marked and deposited.)
Or, perhaps I should say elections day, because what we have been voting on are ballot measures for different parts of the county: https://info.kingcounty.gov/kcelections/Vote/contests/ballotmeasures.aspx?eid=52
For example, since I live in the Lake Washington school district, I voted on two measures that will continue extra taxes for that district:
https://cdn.kingcounty.gov/-/media/king-county/depts/elections/current-election/2026/02/sample-ballot.pdf?rev=2aaf709867294ee2994aef7adf820585&hash=B16461F16AF63CCF01B228B91C1193A2
(Incidentally, the Lake Washington school district includes a little farm town you may have heard of: Redmond.)
Last Thursday, I voted by marking my ballot with a black pen; on Friday, I deposited the ballot at a local post office. (I could have deposited it in the mail box outside my apartment, or in a large box by the Kirkland City Hall. I could even have voted in person by going to the county office, some miles away.)
(More in the next few days, including one post that I think Cyclefree and fitalass, among others, will find of interest.)
It is part of working life though I do think hybrid working is the best arrangement
Farage is a dinosaur with no answers for our country and needs to be beaten at the polls in 2029 and before
https://apnews.com/article/noam-chomsky-alive-not-dead-5b7a1b23b8731ca311e1ec38cdc3c119
👍
Surely abandoning the now broke rubes for new ones is better plan?
The saving grace for Bill Clinton, possibly (let's see what comes up at his Congressional appearance), is that he cut off contact with Epstein around 2003, long before Epstein's first arrest in 2008 (although Ghislaine was at Chelsea Clinton's wedding in 2010), and long before others stopped seeing him (Donald Trump 2007 {according to Trump, but a 2016 contact is alleged}, Howard Lutnick 2012, Elon Musk 2014, Steve Bannon 2019).
More broadly, the connections with Democrats (Clinton, but see also George Mitchell) are with an older generation of Democrat politicians, while the connections with Republicans are with current Republican figures. The current Democratic party doesn't mind throwing Bill Clinton to the wolves, and the like of Ro Khanna are absolutely going after, e.g., Lutnick. The problem for the Democrats is that they control neither the House nor the Senate, nor obviously the Executive. The DoJ is controlled by Trump and refuses to investigate anyone. The Dems needed Republican rebels in the House to support them to get the files released.
It's not the Democrats being squeamish. It's the Republicans in power who are trying to avoid the issue.
And, given how bizarre this story is, in the first place (“billionaire private pedo island for US presidents and British princes”) I don’t entirely dismiss them. It does solve the profound mystery of his suicide/murder. It’s no longer a mystery because he’s STILL ALIVE
Sunak was a better man than Johnson, just bedraggled. Starmer was better than Corbyn, just about to be bedraggled.
1) some jobs can be done with certain amounts of WFH.
2) this varies between 0% and 100% depending on the job
3) it further varies according to the phase of the work - a team working on a long term project with stable membership vs a team being assembled (say!
4) it further varies according to the management methodology and the quality of its implementation.
5) it further varies according to the technical assistance put in by the company and the employee
6) if further varies according to the level of motivation of the employee and employee.
So if you are doing steady development work in IT, using Agile, with high quality technical support (VMs, messaging and collaboration tools) with a good quality management and colleagues. And everyone has a nice home office setup… then Yay!
If you have a bullshit job where everyone has been told to fuck off home, log in from their own computer somehow (laptop balanced on the ironing board), with no collaboration setup or feedback. And management are incompetent and don’t give a shit… then nothing will get done.
I’ve encountered both.
(You'll thank me later.)
If anything the way the executive in the US has got the Department of Justice dancing to its tune is probably one of the more concerning aspects of the current administration.
Clearly - absent a major shock - the current White House isn’t going to let the DoJ or any other authority go after any individual in the files. They are after all the files the DoJ have been sat on. If they subsequently start an investigation then they would have to explain why they aren’t looking into all of the names on the summary slide - i.e. including the President and his Commerce Secretary.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/feb/10/spanish-coolest-language-education-children-french-bad-bunny-gcse
Noted that merlinstrategy has now had her application for BPC membership processed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pDRbwI4R0I
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/feb/10/russia-ukraine-war-us-talks-europe-live-updates-latest-news
Now that really is a conspiracy theory.
Starmer's ex-comms chief turned Labour peer suspended over links to sex offender
The future's orange.
Well. Mandarin anyways.
So that's alright then.
https://x.com/paivootele/status/2021230395468009925?s=20
Im going out on a limb - Its not a good look
https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/2021259971019567322
Whatever is going on in the turmoil of politics, I know that for you and for millions of people, what matters is the cost of living.
That's why we are taking urgent steps to tackle it head on.
Freezing rail fares, rolling out free breakfast clubs and free school meals, boosting the National Living Wage and easing energy bills.
Putting more money in people’s pockets.
That’s my government’s focus.
https://x.com/tthebattlefield/status/2021166644849000837
The enemy was relying on dodgy Starlink connections and very long supply routes, there’s now stories of even officers deserting or surrendering in the past few days.
As my ‘90’s t-shirt used to say, same sh!t, different day.
https://x.com/MattCartoonist/status/2021271027385258274?s=20
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/2021234831284183174
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/2021189044093190282
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2026/feb/10/my-week-of-only-using-cash-could-a-return-to-notes-and-coins-change-my-life
If it wasn't, then the favourite would always win.
On the other hand it means that the opposition can resurrect a random one whenever they feel like it and it will feel fresh to many people.
Betting markets are indicators of probability. If a runner is available at evens, then you should expect them to win approximately half the time.
(Only been defeated once, when the student spoke fluent Swedish - his mum was from Stockholm - sadly there is no A Level).