If it wasn't, then the favourite would always win.
That's not necessarily true:
Betting markets are indicators of probability. If a runner is available at evens, then you should expect them to win approximately half the time.
Betting markets are at best perceived probability. There's no truth in them, and they are easily distorted. Brian Rose spent some money and distorted the market so that it was entirely unrepresentative of anyone's view.
A market starts as someone's opinion of probability and that becomes "distorted" by the money placed into the market.The greater the liquidity in the market, the more likely it is to be representative of sentiment within the betting community.
I once spoke to a professional punter at Lingfield of all places - he told me he kept his betting very selective (he only played in particular types of races ignoring all others). He would seek out the races he tended to play and worked up his own tissue based on his assessment of the chances of the individual runners based on detailed form study and would play on the discrepencies - backing or laying as appropriate.
I'm not sure how successful he was but as a strategy it made a lot of sense. Unless you know as much if not more than the odds makers or the general betting community, you've not got much chance.
There was a time when political betters knew more than the bookmakers and some of us did very well - now, the bookies have a better feel and the arbs are just not there as they were.
Not least because they restrict or ban you if you know what you're doing.
Starmer will likely survive until May, whether he survives beyond that depends largely on whether Labour beat the Tories for second on NEV and seats won then in the local and devolved elections
He will almost certainly win more seats in local elections, he is defending 2100, the Tories 900
Time for us progressives to get behind Starmer. The last few days have shown there's no alternative. I've scoured the benches and there are none. Starmer needs a move to the left and reset and to distance himself from tyrants. Get rid of Mahmood and start being Labour
Starmer will likely survive until May, whether he survives beyond that depends largely on whether Labour beat the Tories for second on NEV and seats won then in the local and devolved elections
I predict Badenoch goes before Starmer does.
If you get BF to stick that up I think it's a very interesting market.
Whatever is going on in the turmoil of politics, I know that for you and for millions of people, what matters is the cost of living.
That's why we are taking urgent steps to tackle it head on.
Freezing rail fares, rolling out free breakfast clubs and free school meals, boosting the National Living Wage and easing energy bills.
Putting more money in people’s pockets.
That’s my government’s focus.
I am, on the whole, in favour of free school meals and stuff like free breakfast clubs. As a recurring USP for the Labour party and government, I think it lacks something. The need for these things is (a) because too many people are too poor and (b) because too many people are too busy. Neither of these factors in any sense commends a Labour (or any) government.
Few of the recipients who are actually helped will spend any time whatsoever thinking about voting or parliament or government. For the rest of us, 'Free Breakfast Clubs' is a trope as done to death as 'toolmaker'.
Boosting minimum wage is creating a whole set of incentives not to employ anyone young without experience
The govt has a solution to solve the problem it is making worse.
Also the decline in hospitality will also not help youth unemployment and this decline seems intentional given influential think tank, Resolution Foundation, has previously advocated for it.
Loads of bar work in France. They could get a job and learn a language and have a great time. Don't blame the government blame Badenoch and Farage.
Blame the French government for not setting up a youth scheme for Britons regardless.
They are perfectly free to offer it if they want to do so.
The EU has moved closer to creating offshore centres for migrants and asylum seekers, after centre-right and far-right MEPs united for tougher migration policies.
MEPs voted for legal changes that will give authorities more options to deport asylum seekers, including sending people to countries they have never been to.
Under the new rules, expected to apply from June, a person seeking asylum can be deported to a country outside the EU, even if they have only passed through it, or to a place to which they have no link, as long as a European government has signed an agreement with the receiving state.
She long fell victim to the curse of semi-famous middle aged becoming a social media obsessive with the "correct opinions".
Vorderman syndrome ?
She also credited Rachel Reeves with the FTSE100 exceeding 10,000 🙄
The likes of Vorderman and Gary Neville seem to have gone a lot quieter since the GE.
Tom Kerridge was another and he proudly signed a letter, prior to the 2024 election, endorsing Labour is now reaping his reward. There’s a saying about face eating leopards !,
Maybe he hadn’t clocked The influential Resolution Foundation wanting the govt to strategically shrink his industry.
I hope Your Party continues for ages, the whole thing has been a glorious ego ridden mess.
Technically more successful than ChangeUK, as there's a bigger market for what they want to sell, but the former still probably had more harmony at the start despite being a cobbled togther group.
What a bunch of hypocrites Reform are given they advertised for jobs with working from home as a possibility.
And how can you force employers to not allow working from home . Will Reform be fining employers . And what about those who might be disabled and working from home is their best chance of working .
Lol Labour are trying to manifest a recovery by wishing it. I hear CCHQ are certain Susan Hall has a real chance too
Yes, I recall a number of tweets claiming she had won on the Thursday evening and Friday after the polls closed and before a single vote had been counted....
Lol Labour are trying to manifest a recovery by wishing it. I hear CCHQ are certain Susan Hall has a real chance too
Yes, I recall a number of tweets claiming she had won on the Thursday evening and Friday after the polls closed and before a single vote had been counted....
A complete marmite Reform candidate will focus the anti reform minds
From all accounts the green candidate is poor and the Labour candidate very good and local.
If Burnham can be dragged away from the mirror and actually support the PLP who knows what might happen
I expect a big swing to either green or labour from those not voting reform in the next 10 days. That momentum is key and the field operations will be vital
Time for us progressives to get behind Starmer. The last few days have shown there's no alternative. I've scoured the benches and there are none. Starmer needs a move to the left and reset and to distance himself from tyrants. Get rid of Mahmood and start being Labour
Starmer isn't going to do any of those things. So then what do you do?
The EU has moved closer to creating offshore centres for migrants and asylum seekers, after centre-right and far-right MEPs united for tougher migration policies.
MEPs voted for legal changes that will give authorities more options to deport asylum seekers, including sending people to countries they have never been to.
Under the new rules, expected to apply from June, a person seeking asylum can be deported to a country outside the EU, even if they have only passed through it, or to a place to which they have no link, as long as a European government has signed an agreement with the receiving state.
MRDA for all parties talking up their by-election prospects, especially if reliant on canvassing data from voters who agreed to talk to that party.
Tonight’s ITN news report from the journalist on the spot was good for The Greens and okay for Labour. The vox pops were either hostile to, or ambivalent to, Reform.
What a bunch of hypocrites Reform are given they advertised for jobs with working from home as a possibility.
And how can you force employers to not allow working from home . Will Reform be fining employers . And what about those who might be disabled and working from home is their best chance of working .
I presume this is just a coded message about the civil service to expect a beating if Reform get in?
Then they can complain about civil servants are not doing a good job at delivery, possibly with a sprinkling of 'deep state' talk.
What a bunch of hypocrites Reform are given they advertised for jobs with working from home as a possibility.
And how can you force employers to not allow working from home . Will Reform be fining employers . And what about those who might be disabled and working from home is their best chance of working .
Its typical lazy Farage make it up as he goes along nonsense. He will do fuck all about it nor should he. We have a policy of consistent fabulous excellence stuff
MRDA for all parties talking up their by-election prospects, especially if reliant on canvassing data from voters who agreed to talk to that party.
Tonight’s ITN news report from the journalist on the spot was good for The Greens and okay for Labour. The vox pops were either hostile to, or ambivalent to, Reform.
Assumption is that they were in the southern part of the constituency then. Seems like it's quite divided politically.
Relative turnout between the areas could be decisive.
What a bunch of hypocrites Reform are given they advertised for jobs with working from home as a possibility.
And how can you force employers to not allow working from home . Will Reform be fining employers . And what about those who might be disabled and working from home is their best chance of working .
I presume this is just a coded message about the civil service to expect a beating if Reform get in?
Then they can complain about civil servants are not doing a good job at delivery, possibly with a sprinkling of 'deep state' talk.
It’s about time the media started doing their job properly and stopped giving Farage a free ride .
The one at the bottom makes him look like a boybander. From the nineties.
This was apparently done out of frustration with Farage alleging that all Turkish barbers were fronts for criminal activity, rather than genuine businesses.
When I was in Edinburgh I did end up using the local Turkish barber who had a cage of songbirds on the premises. Not sure if that was a sign for the police of their willingness to talk if necessary.
There’s a genuine one in our town too. I feel some sympathy for them being tarred with the same brush.
Whatever is going on in the turmoil of politics, I know that for you and for millions of people, what matters is the cost of living.
That's why we are taking urgent steps to tackle it head on.
Freezing rail fares, rolling out free breakfast clubs and free school meals, boosting the National Living Wage and easing energy bills.
Putting more money in people’s pockets.
That’s my government’s focus.
I am, on the whole, in favour of free school meals and stuff like free breakfast clubs. As a recurring USP for the Labour party and government, I think it lacks something. The need for these things is (a) because too many people are too poor and (b) because too many people are too busy. Neither of these factors in any sense commends a Labour (or any) government.
Few of the recipients who are actually helped will spend any time whatsoever thinking about voting or parliament or government. For the rest of us, 'Free Breakfast Clubs' is a trope as done to death as 'toolmaker'.
It's not just inadequate, it's disastrous. Breakfast provided by schools might be a good idea where family life has been broken and the alternative is a hungry child. Starmer's loathsome post is presenting not giving your child breakfast as a handy dodge to get you through the cost of living crisis. It is despicable, and typically Labour. Blair (or it could have been Brown) complained that people in Britain were not dependent enough on the State. It's clearly Starmer's plan to have the state involved to the extent that people can't even be arsed to pour milk over a bowl of Cheerios. The ghoul.
Not the first time this has been explained, probably well into double figures but ....
It's so that you can drop them early and get to work on time, the point is childcare not breakfast.
Lol Labour are trying to manifest a recovery by wishing it. I hear CCHQ are certain Susan Hall has a real chance too
Yes, I recall a number of tweets claiming she had won on the Thursday evening and Friday after the polls closed and before a single vote had been counted....
Lol Labour are trying to manifest a recovery by wishing it. I hear CCHQ are certain Susan Hall has a real chance too
Yes, I recall a number of tweets claiming she had won on the Thursday evening and Friday after the polls closed and before a single vote had been counted....
A complete marmite Reform candidate will focus the anti reform minds
From all accounts the green candidate is poor and the Labour candidate very good and local.
If Burnham can be dragged away from the mirror and actually support the PLP who knows what might happen
I expect a big swing to either green or labour from those not voting reform in the next 10 days. That momentum is key and the field operations will be vital
Are you just with us for the campaign or is this a long term gig?
MRDA for all parties talking up their by-election prospects, especially if reliant on canvassing data from voters who agreed to talk to that party.
Tonight’s ITN news report from the journalist on the spot was good for The Greens and okay for Labour. The vox pops were either hostile to, or ambivalent to, Reform.
Assumption is that they were in the southern part of the constituency then. Seems like it's quite divided politically.
Relative turnout between the areas could be decisive.
They went to both parts of the seat and made quite clear the different demography and interviewed a range of voters. None supported Reform. Some Green, some soft Labour (could be tempted back)
What a bunch of hypocrites Reform are given they advertised for jobs with working from home as a possibility.
And how can you force employers to not allow working from home . Will Reform be fining employers . And what about those who might be disabled and working from home is their best chance of working .
I presume this is just a coded message about the civil service to expect a beating if Reform get in?
Then they can complain about civil servants are not doing a good job at delivery, possibly with a sprinkling of 'deep state' talk.
The one at the bottom makes him look like a boybander. From the nineties.
This was apparently done out of frustration with Farage alleging that all Turkish barbers were fronts for criminal activity, rather than genuine businesses.
When I was in Edinburgh I did end up using the local Turkish barber who had a cage of songbirds on the premises. Not sure if that was a sign for the police of their willingness to talk if necessary.
There’s a genuine one in our town too. I feel some sympathy for them being tarred with the same brush.
Like the old gag about the embarrassment for everyone of going to a massage parlour for an actual massage.
What a bunch of hypocrites Reform are given they advertised for jobs with working from home as a possibility.
And how can you force employers to not allow working from home . Will Reform be fining employers . And what about those who might be disabled and working from home is their best chance of working .
I presume this is just a coded message about the civil service to expect a beating if Reform get in?
Then they can complain about civil servants are not doing a good job at delivery, possibly with a sprinkling of 'deep state' talk.
You feel they are doing a good job at delivery?
Not necessarily, and a breath of fresh air could, if well targeted, be useful. But I suspect what we'd get is indiscriminate cuts with a lot of the better people let go first as they have opportunities elsewhere, and then moaning about not being able to do as much with fewer people who they will also want to pay less and with less flexibility.
If it wasn't, then the favourite would always win.
That's not necessarily true:
Betting markets are indicators of probability. If a runner is available at evens, then you should expect them to win approximately half the time.
Betting markets are at best perceived probability. There's no truth in them, and they are easily distorted. Brian Rose spent some money and distorted the market so that it was entirely unrepresentative of anyone's view.
A market starts as someone's opinion of probability and that becomes "distorted" by the money placed into the market.The greater the liquidity in the market, the more likely it is to be representative of sentiment within the betting community.
I once spoke to a professional punter at Lingfield of all places - he told me he kept his betting very selective (he only played in particular types of races ignoring all others). He would seek out the races he tended to play and worked up his own tissue based on his assessment of the chances of the individual runners based on detailed form study and would play on the discrepencies - backing or laying as appropriate.
I'm not sure how successful he was but as a strategy it made a lot of sense. Unless you know as much if not more than the odds makers or the general betting community, you've not got much chance.
There was a time when political betters knew more than the bookmakers and some of us did very well - now, the bookies have a better feel and the arbs are just not there as they were.
Not least because they restrict or ban you if you know what you're doing.
There's that though how often that really happens I don't know.
Pro punters can find a way to get on - it's more about niche markets. Are Smarkets for example going to have markets on the London Borough elections? I'm not going to play on Hillingdon or Ealing because I don't know much about them but a market on Newham would certainly interest me.
Expectations management has been really good for Gorton, if Labour hold it it will seem like a epoch defining triumph.
I think there's a good case for it being an epoch defining triumph for whichever party comes out on top.
For Reform it would show an ability to win even in a seat not demographically ideal for them, where Labour polled >50% in 2024, with an ideologically extreme candidate. They would have their momentum firmly re-established then, and a Reform majority at the next GE would look more credible.
For the Greens it would be their first ever Westminster by-election victory. They would be established as a genuine alternative to Labour across perhaps a hundred urban seats, or more. Given that you barely need 120 MPs to be the official opposition these days...
But, yes, for Labour, talk about rising from the dead.
Expectations management has been really good for Gorton, if Labour hold it it will seem like a epoch defining triumph.
I think there's a good case for it being an epoch defining triumph for whichever party comes out on top.
For Reform it would show an ability to win even in a seat not demographically ideal for them, where Labour polled >50% in 2024, with an ideologically extreme candidate. They would have their momentum firmly re-established then, and a Reform majority at the next GE would look more credible.
For the Greens it would be their first ever Westminster by-election victory. They would be established as a genuine alternative to Labour across perhaps a hundred urban seats, or more. Given that you barely need 120 MPs to be the official opposition these days...
But, yes, for Labour, talk about rising from the dead.
Expectations management has been really good for Gorton, if Labour hold it it will seem like a epoch defining triumph.
I think there's a good case for it being an epoch defining triumph for whichever party comes out on top.
For Reform it would show an ability to win even in a seat not demographically ideal for them, where Labour polled >50% in 2024, with an ideologically extreme candidate. They would have their momentum firmly re-established then, and a Reform majority at the next GE would look more credible.
For the Greens it would be their first ever Westminster by-election victory. They would be established as a genuine alternative to Labour across perhaps a hundred urban seats, or more. Given that you barely need 120 MPs to be the official opposition these days...
But, yes, for Labour, talk about rising from the dead.
I am not sure traditional expectations management works in a three way scenario. It blows up if your ideological cohort thinks the other guys has mroe chance of winning.
Starmer will likely survive until May, whether he survives beyond that depends largely on whether Labour beat the Tories for second on NEV and seats won then in the local and devolved elections
He will almost certainly win more seats in local elections, he is defending 2100, the Tories 900
It is who comes second on NEV voteshare that is key yes
Pam Glancy-Duncan MSP (Lab) has whip suspended over the Morton stuff
Duncan-glancy too
Calls for her to stand down completely a few weeks back, before the latest round of Mandelson stuff flared up. Almost pointless stepping down now being less than 3 months til the election, would leave an empty seat.
Wonder what the protocol for MSP pensions for the likes of Derek Mackay and Colin Smyth, when they can start drawing them
What a bunch of hypocrites Reform are given they advertised for jobs with working from home as a possibility.
And how can you force employers to not allow working from home . Will Reform be fining employers . And what about those who might be disabled and working from home is their best chance of working .
I presume this is just a coded message about the civil service to expect a beating if Reform get in?
Then they can complain about civil servants are not doing a good job at delivery, possibly with a sprinkling of 'deep state' talk.
You feel they are doing a good job at delivery?
It's politicians that are stopping this government from delivering anything much, not Civil Servants.
Starmer will likely survive until May, whether he survives beyond that depends largely on whether Labour beat the Tories for second on NEV and seats won then in the local and devolved elections
He will almost certainly win more seats in local elections, he is defending 2100, the Tories 900
It is who comes second on NEV voteshare that is key yes
Lets hope Thrasher and the Beeb dont give us too divergent an opinion
Expectations management has been really good for Gorton, if Labour hold it it will seem like a epoch defining triumph.
I think there's a good case for it being an epoch defining triumph for whichever party comes out on top.
For Reform it would show an ability to win even in a seat not demographically ideal for them, where Labour polled >50% in 2024, with an ideologically extreme candidate. They would have their momentum firmly re-established then, and a Reform majority at the next GE would look more credible.
For the Greens it would be their first ever Westminster by-election victory. They would be established as a genuine alternative to Labour across perhaps a hundred urban seats, or more. Given that you barely need 120 MPs to be the official opposition these days...
But, yes, for Labour, talk about rising from the dead.
Expectations management has been really good for Gorton, if Labour hold it it will seem like a epoch defining triumph.
I think there's a good case for it being an epoch defining triumph for whichever party comes out on top.
For Reform it would show an ability to win even in a seat not demographically ideal for them, where Labour polled >50% in 2024, with an ideologically extreme candidate. They would have their momentum firmly re-established then, and a Reform majority at the next GE would look more credible.
For the Greens it would be their first ever Westminster by-election victory. They would be established as a genuine alternative to Labour across perhaps a hundred urban seats, or more. Given that you barely need 120 MPs to be the official opposition these days...
But, yes, for Labour, talk about rising from the dead.
I am not sure traditional expectations management works in a three way scenario. It blows up if your ideological cohort thinks the other guys has mroe chance of winning.
Yes. I think it was tongue-in-cheek to call it Labour expectations management. Labour have been desperate to establish themselves as the only viable anti-Reform vote.
Pam Glancy-Duncan MSP (Lab) has whip suspended over the Morton stuff
Duncan-glancy too
Calls for her to stand down completely a few weeks back, before the latest round of Mandelson stuff flared up. Almost pointless stepping down now being less than 3 months til the election, would leave an empty seat.
Wonder what the protocol for MSP pensions for the likes of Derek Mackay and Colin Smyth, when they can start drawing them
Her association with this chap is not new, this whip suspension is more labour wanting to be seen to be acting tough.
Pam Glancy-Duncan MSP (Lab) has whip suspended over the Morton stuff
Duncan-glancy too
Calls for her to stand down completely a few weeks back, before the latest round of Mandelson stuff flared up. Almost pointless stepping down now being less than 3 months til the election, would leave an empty seat.
Wonder what the protocol for MSP pensions for the likes of Derek Mackay and Colin Smyth, when they can start drawing them
Her association with this chap is not new, this whip suspension is more labour wanting to be seen to be acting tough.
Which makes it odd Mr Sarwar didn't do it before his announcement yesterday - had he forgotten she still had the whip?
Mounting questions for Sir Keir Starmer tonight regarding the peerage given to his former comms chief Matthew Doyle despite his association with a councillor charged with child sex offences
The official line is that No 10 was not aware of the fact Doyle had campaigned for Morton **at the time of his appointment**
BUT Doyle's appointment wasn't formally gazetted - confirmed in the London Gazette after the King signed a letter of patent - until January 8
That's nearly two weeks later, when No 10 was very clearly aware of The Sunday Times story
Many peers assumed that the Doyle's peerage would not be confirmed in the London Gazette given The Sunday Times article. They were surprised when it was
These local elections must be the most important of all time
Whoever loses out of the PM and LOTO will be turfed out as a result
Or maybe not?
Whats a loss though? There are 5 components - Minor mayoralties, Locals, London boroughs, Scotland, Wales, they could have very different outcomes
@HYUFD has set an admirably simple bar - which of the Tories or Labour are ahead of the other in the NEV from the local elections.
I find it hard to quibble with that. The results in Wales and Scotland will be eye-catching, but MPs in the 532 English constituencies will be able to rationalise them as not being relevant to their prospects in England. So it comes down to the local elections in England, and the simplest metric to understand is the NEV.
That said, a loss in these elections doesn't necessarily mean a loss of office.
Rep. Delia Ramirez to DHS officials: "I have as much respect for you as I do for the last white men who put on masks to terrorize communities of color. I have no respect for the inheritors of the Klanhood and the slave patrol. Those activities were criminal and so are yours."
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
I see every Leaver's favourite Remoaner has also opined:
Asda and Marks and Spencer chief executive Lord Rose said in January last year that remote working policies had spawned a generation who are 'not doing proper work'.
He was right when he said Brexit would give everyone a wage increase and he'll be right again!
If you strip away the culture war bullshit
1) some jobs can be done with certain amounts of WFH. 2) this varies between 0% and 100% depending on the job 3) it further varies according to the phase of the work - a team working on a long term project with stable membership vs a team being assembled (say! 4) it further varies according to the management methodology and the quality of its implementation. 5) it further varies according to the technical assistance put in by the company and the employee 6) if further varies according to the level of motivation of the employee and employee.
So if you are doing steady development work in IT, using Agile, with high quality technical support (VMs, messaging and collaboration tools) with a good quality management and colleagues. And everyone has a nice home office setup… then Yay!
If you have a bullshit job where everyone has been told to fuck off home, log in from their own computer somehow (laptop balanced on the ironing board), with no collaboration setup or feedback. And management are incompetent and don’t give a shit… then nothing will get done.
I’ve encountered both.
Back in the 20th Century there were surveys and experiments showing work was best done in private offices rather than open plan where concentration was constantly broken by noise more than interruptions. Management saw offices as status symbols, with open plan for the riff-raff. WFH often reverses that.
When I started lecturing in 1969 virtually all staff were in rooms with 8-10 desks. When I finished in 2001 nearly everyone had their own room.
We've gone backwards since then! I think the Director of the Department has her own office, but the rest of us are in offices with 4-10 desks where I am.
Mounting questions for Sir Keir Starmer tonight regarding the peerage given to his former comms chief Matthew Doyle despite his association with a councillor charged with child sex offences
The official line is that No 10 was not aware of the fact Doyle had campaigned for Morton **at the time of his appointment**
BUT Doyle's appointment wasn't formally gazetted - confirmed in the London Gazette after the King signed a letter of patent - until January 8
That's nearly two weeks later, when No 10 was very clearly aware of The Sunday Times story
Many peers assumed that the Doyle's peerage would not be confirmed in the London Gazette given The Sunday Times article. They were surprised when it was
The main thing is how good this all looks to the electorate. Due diligence shouldnt look like 'getting a reference from a nonce'
The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
For someone who says you need to attend your place of work, he spends precious little time in his, the HoC.
Didn't even turn up for the debate on Russian influence. I'm pretty sure he could have shed some interesting light on that.
It is all a bit nanny state. Instructing organisations independent of government how to arrange their business.
I see every Leaver's favourite Remoaner has also opined:
Asda and Marks and Spencer chief executive Lord Rose said in January last year that remote working policies had spawned a generation who are 'not doing proper work'.
He was right when he said Brexit would give everyone a wage increase and he'll be right again!
If you strip away the culture war bullshit
1) some jobs can be done with certain amounts of WFH. 2) this varies between 0% and 100% depending on the job 3) it further varies according to the phase of the work - a team working on a long term project with stable membership vs a team being assembled (say! 4) it further varies according to the management methodology and the quality of its implementation. 5) it further varies according to the technical assistance put in by the company and the employee 6) if further varies according to the level of motivation of the employee and employee.
So if you are doing steady development work in IT, using Agile, with high quality technical support (VMs, messaging and collaboration tools) with a good quality management and colleagues. And everyone has a nice home office setup… then Yay!
If you have a bullshit job where everyone has been told to fuck off home, log in from their own computer somehow (laptop balanced on the ironing board), with no collaboration setup or feedback. And management are incompetent and don’t give a shit… then nothing will get done.
I’ve encountered both.
Back in the 20th Century there were surveys and experiments showing work was best done in private offices rather than open plan where concentration was constantly broken by noise more than interruptions. Management saw offices as status symbols, with open plan for the riff-raff. WFH often reverses that.
When I started lecturing in 1969 virtually all staff were in rooms with 8-10 desks. When I finished in 2001 nearly everyone had their own room.
We've gone backwards since then! I think the Director of the Department has her own office, but the rest of us are in offices with 4-10 desks where I am.
It's not uncommon in the public sector for the only staff member with their own office to be the chief executive.
Expectations management has been really good for Gorton, if Labour hold it it will seem like a epoch defining triumph.
I think there's a good case for it being an epoch defining triumph for whichever party comes out on top.
For Reform it would show an ability to win even in a seat not demographically ideal for them, where Labour polled >50% in 2024, with an ideologically extreme candidate. They would have their momentum firmly re-established then, and a Reform majority at the next GE would look more credible.
For the Greens it would be their first ever Westminster by-election victory. They would be established as a genuine alternative to Labour across perhaps a hundred urban seats, or more. Given that you barely need 120 MPs to be the official opposition these days...
But, yes, for Labour, talk about rising from the dead.
Expectations management has been really good for Gorton, if Labour hold it it will seem like a epoch defining triumph.
I think there's a good case for it being an epoch defining triumph for whichever party comes out on top.
For Reform it would show an ability to win even in a seat not demographically ideal for them, where Labour polled >50% in 2024, with an ideologically extreme candidate. They would have their momentum firmly re-established then, and a Reform majority at the next GE would look more credible.
For the Greens it would be their first ever Westminster by-election victory. They would be established as a genuine alternative to Labour across perhaps a hundred urban seats, or more. Given that you barely need 120 MPs to be the official opposition these days...
But, yes, for Labour, talk about rising from the dead.
I am not sure traditional expectations management works in a three way scenario. It blows up if your ideological cohort thinks the other guys has mroe chance of winning.
Yes. I think it was tongue-in-cheek to call it Labour expectations management. Labour have been desperate to establish themselves as the only viable anti-Reform vote.
Are labour now waking up to the threat the Greens pose to them in many of their seats ?
Mounting questions for Sir Keir Starmer tonight regarding the peerage given to his former comms chief Matthew Doyle despite his association with a councillor charged with child sex offences
The official line is that No 10 was not aware of the fact Doyle had campaigned for Morton **at the time of his appointment**
BUT Doyle's appointment wasn't formally gazetted - confirmed in the London Gazette after the King signed a letter of patent - until January 8
That's nearly two weeks later, when No 10 was very clearly aware of The Sunday Times story
Many peers assumed that the Doyle's peerage would not be confirmed in the London Gazette given The Sunday Times article. They were surprised when it was
The main thing is how good this all looks to the electorate. Due diligence shouldnt look like 'getting a reference from a nonce'
I think we're all aware that knowing the right person is all you really need to get ahead, but it's still been surprising how well that still works for very shady people nonetheless.
Mounting questions for Sir Keir Starmer tonight regarding the peerage given to his former comms chief Matthew Doyle despite his association with a councillor charged with child sex offences
The official line is that No 10 was not aware of the fact Doyle had campaigned for Morton **at the time of his appointment**
BUT Doyle's appointment wasn't formally gazetted - confirmed in the London Gazette after the King signed a letter of patent - until January 8
That's nearly two weeks later, when No 10 was very clearly aware of The Sunday Times story
Many peers assumed that the Doyle's peerage would not be confirmed in the London Gazette given The Sunday Times article. They were surprised when it was
The main thing is how good this all looks to the electorate. Due diligence shouldnt look like 'getting a reference from a nonce'
I think we're all aware that knowing the right person is all you really need to get ahead, but it's still been surprising how well that still works for very shady people nonetheless.
Its grim. Unsurprising, but grim to see it exposed
I suspect the kind of people who use Discord will dump it before submitting ID.
Indeed. There’s a lot of US political fringe groups who definitely aren’t about to upload their ID, but who will make a lot of noise about censorship and about European influence on US tech companies. Possib;y one of very few things that will unite the left and right in the US at the moment.
I see Brum’s bin men have voted to continue the strike until September.
How long can industrial action go on when it is no longer a strike and rather the service just doesn't exist any more.
Surprising to me that the lack of recycling facilities is allowable under legislation. Short of driving to the tip, everyone is putting all their recycleables straight into the rubbish and thence to landfill.
Action on violence against women and girls....and it also must be phrased exactly exactly like the word for word, and every Labour MPs must mention it 10 times per interview.
Preferred PM polling Very good for Badenoch in head to heads, Nigel in front in open choice
Also strongly suggests tactical anti Reform voting will be active
In which case Tories need to be wary of thinking cosying up to make an alliance will prove fruitful.
I think its very unlikely now, too much bad blood. Although im sure there will be some 'not working this seat too hard' back channel stuff
You'd think so, but among Tories it still seems to be about 50/50 to surrender or fight Reform. Part of the turn against Kemi amongst some seems, perhaps not coincidentally, to have coincided with a more open fight between Reform and the Tories with all these defections and a punchy 'good riddance' attitude to those who have gone.
Preferred PM polling Very good for Badenoch in head to heads, Nigel in front in open choice
Also strongly suggests tactical anti Reform voting will be active
In which case Tories need to be wary of thinking cosying up to make an alliance will prove fruitful.
I think its very unlikely now, too much bad blood. Although im sure there will be some 'not working this seat too hard' back channel stuff
You'd think so, but among Tories it still seems to be about 50/50 to surrender or fight Reform. Part of the turn against Kemi amongst some seems, perhaps not coincidentally, to have coincided with a more open fight between Reform and the Tories with all these defections and a punchy 'good riddance' attitude to those who have gone.
Any polling recovery and 'crush the bastards' willbe very loud, very fast
I hope Your Party continues for ages, the whole thing has been a glorious ego ridden mess.
Technically more successful than ChangeUK, as there's a bigger market for what they want to sell, but the former still probably had more harmony at the start despite being a cobbled togther group.
They're better than the Cuks, but less effective than the Fukkers.
7% of the population, that's a Scottish subsample kind of size... I'm not sure I trust that claim at all.
The most quintessentially “public school person” on here is the slow witted Millfield alumnus and retired tampon ad executive @Roger
And whatever his faults, such as possessing the IQ of a daffodil, Roger has been loyally Labour throughout his PB years
So maybe the polling is right
This feels right to me. I know a fair few people who went to private school and they range from middling Lib Dems through establishment Labour to Corbynite Labour. One or two Tories but very much a minority.
Strange but true. Labour's support now runs at 40% + among the privately educated, according to Yougov. In fact, Labour poll best among the highest earners, Reform poll best among the lowest earners.
We will see some decidedly odd results, at the next election.
Labour does best amongst private school pupils and the LDs also do better than their national average with the privately educated, the Tories and LDs and Reform do best amongst grammar school pupils. The Greens do best amongst state comprehensive and academy pupils and Reform also do better than their UK average with those who went to a state comprehensive or academy https://schoolsweek.co.uk/class-politics-how-old-school-voting-habits-are-unravelling/
Action on violence against women and girls....and it also must be phrased exactly exactly like the word for word, and every Labour MPs must mention it 10 times per interview.
Badenoch could cause some difficulties for him tomorrow by quoting some of Wes Streeting's past tweets about shoving Jan Moir under a train.
Americans spend more on OnlyFans than the NYT and ChatGPT combined
Did the tech bros factor this into their calculations that everybody will happily pay $200-2000 / month for super intelligence, rather than spending on looking at boobies?
Action on violence against women and girls....and it also must be phrased exactly exactly like the word for word, and every Labour MPs must mention it 10 times per interview.
Meanwhile, Rupert Lowe MP might have a different view on the subject at the moment…
Americans spend more on OnlyFans than the NYT and ChatGPT combined
Did the tech bros factor this into their calculations that everybody will happily pay $200-2000 / month for super intelligence, rather than spending on looking at boobies?
It has been claimed that the porn industry has been among the most effective early users of new technologies like online payments and streaming video. If there's truth to that perhaps we should await its efforts on AI to bear fruit, as it might be better than Open AI and not cost a trillion dollars.
Preferred PM polling Very good for Badenoch in head to heads, Nigel in front in open choice
Also strongly suggests tactical anti Reform voting will be active
In which case Tories need to be wary of thinking cosying up to make an alliance will prove fruitful.
As things stand, once you make allowance for the fact that while Reform have 30% support they also have, probably, the firmest opposition from another 60% of voters, then the picture looks odd.
There is strong support for:
Not Reform Not Labour Not Tory.
That's the base line for the election if it were tomorrow.
The complication is the number of different contests it would be. The largest four (in England) are:
Reform v Not Reform Govt v Not Govt Right v Left Establishment v Insurgent.
I see Brum’s bin men have voted to continue the strike until September.
How long can industrial action go on when it is no longer a strike and rather the service just doesn't exist any more.
Surprising to me that the lack of recycling facilities is allowable under legislation. Short of driving to the tip, everyone is putting all their recycleables straight into the rubbish and thence to landfill.
What a bunch of hypocrites Reform are given they advertised for jobs with working from home as a possibility.
And how can you force employers to not allow working from home . Will Reform be fining employers . And what about those who might be disabled and working from home is their best chance of working .
I think there is something in the point that WFH is bad for people's mental health. I have done it for years and it is a lonely experience. I would love to work in a busy trading room again.
But on a practical level, it seems insane to think that I used to spend over two hours a day commuting to do something I can do at home anyway. WFH is here to stay, the cure for the social ills probably is 15 minute cities, and hubs for people to work/socialise in
Whatever, Rupert Lowe is right to criticise Farage over this - what has it got to do with the state how people and employers choose to schedule their work schedules?
I suspect the kind of people who use Discord will dump it before submitting ID.
Someone on one of the discords I'm on has suggested choosing a city for the whole server to move to and then ditching electronic communication completely.
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
It was conducted by Merlin Strategy, a member of the BPC. I thought members of the BPC were afforded respect here
Are you doubting their integrity.
Just because you may not like who commissioned it does not make it wrong.
I’ve read the whole Cummings post and find the attitudes of the people in the focus group hard to disagree with (with a few exceptions)
I think some of it is problematic. For example the question around immigration asks the surveyees to estimate emigration since January 2021, and then pivots it to 'Conservative and Labour have not done enough', whilst afaics not mentioning that net immigration is 80% down between summer 2023 and summer 2025 in either the question or the twitter essay.
I hope that BPC standards are such that that is not up to scratch. I wonder if the attitudes would be the same had they asked for estimates of immigration since summer 2024 or in the last 12 months.
In reality net immigration is back to what it was before the post-Brexit hump, and some are trying politically to keep it central beyond its sell-by date.
(I'm not commenting on Merlin Strategy, run by Scarlett Maguire; I don't know enough to comment.)
You still don’t understand do you?
The argument has gone beyond “immigration is too high” and on to “there are far too many immigrants HERE”
So net migration could drop to zero and you’d still have an awful lot of people deeply concerned about “immigration” - amongst them the Home Secretary, who is promising to toughen up the laws on the right to remain in the UK for the Boriswave
ie - people already HERE
I read Dom's latest effusion, or at least tried to, (tbf, he is very thought-provoking) and one of his points about immigration is the number of incomers from the "very worst places", ie, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc. Young men from war-torn countries with heritage views about women, religion, etc. By inference his point is if you import people from areas where radical Islamism is a thing, you are likely to be importing radical Islamism.
He does have a point.
Well, yeah, derrrrrr
Is this some amazing surprise to you? Who did you think we were importing from the Middle East? Lib Dem voting feminists?
Up to a point, but many of those coming here are escaping oppressive theocratic regimes like the Taliban rather than seeking to establish similar regimes here. Refugees from the Taliban are not the Taliban, just as refugees from the Nazis were not Nazis.
Comments
@rivkahbrown
I wrote 4,600 words about a political party that might not exist in three weeks' time. Am I a masochist? Only one way to find out 👇🏻
https://x.com/rivkahbrown/status/2021247391882477727
They are perfectly free to offer it if they want to do so.
Maybe he hadn’t clocked The influential Resolution Foundation wanting the govt to strategically shrink his industry.
https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2026/02/03/tom-kerridge-warns-rising-business-rates-push-pubs-to-breaking-point/
Technically more successful than ChangeUK, as there's a bigger market for what they want to sell, but the former still probably had more harmony at the start despite being a cobbled togther group.
And how can you force employers to not allow working from home . Will Reform be fining employers . And what about those who might be disabled and working from home is their best chance of working .
From all accounts the green candidate is poor and the Labour candidate very good and local.
If Burnham can be dragged away from the mirror and actually support the PLP who knows what might happen
I expect a big swing to either green or labour from those not voting reform in the next 10 days. That momentum is key and the field operations will be vital
Then they can complain about civil servants are not doing a good job at delivery, possibly with a sprinkling of 'deep state' talk.
We have a policy of consistent fabulous excellence stuff
Appears Private Eye had the Mandy / Epstein stuff at the time. 10 mins in.
Relative turnout between the areas could be decisive.
It's so that you can drop them early and get to work on time, the point is childcare not breakfast.
Duncan-glancy too
Pro punters can find a way to get on - it's more about niche markets. Are Smarkets for example going to have markets on the London Borough elections? I'm not going to play on Hillingdon or Ealing because I don't know much about them but a market on Newham would certainly interest me.
For Reform it would show an ability to win even in a seat not demographically ideal for them, where Labour polled >50% in 2024, with an ideologically extreme candidate. They would have their momentum firmly re-established then, and a Reform majority at the next GE would look more credible.
For the Greens it would be their first ever Westminster by-election victory. They would be established as a genuine alternative to Labour across perhaps a hundred urban seats, or more. Given that you barely need 120 MPs to be the official opposition these days...
But, yes, for Labour, talk about rising from the dead.
Wonder what the protocol for MSP pensions for the likes of Derek Mackay and Colin Smyth, when they can start drawing them
Whoever loses out of the PM and LOTO will be turfed out as a result
Or maybe not?
There are 5 components - Minor mayoralties, Locals, London boroughs, Scotland, Wales, they could have very different outcomes
https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/2021296337988485326
Mounting questions for Sir Keir Starmer tonight regarding the peerage given to his former comms chief Matthew Doyle despite his association with a councillor charged with child sex offences
The official line is that No 10 was not aware of the fact Doyle had campaigned for Morton **at the time of his appointment**
BUT Doyle's appointment wasn't formally gazetted - confirmed in the London Gazette after the King signed a letter of patent - until January 8
That's nearly two weeks later, when No 10 was very clearly aware of The Sunday Times story
Many peers assumed that the Doyle's peerage would not be confirmed in the London Gazette given The Sunday Times article. They were surprised when it was
I find it hard to quibble with that. The results in Wales and Scotland will be eye-catching, but MPs in the 532 English constituencies will be able to rationalise them as not being relevant to their prospects in England. So it comes down to the local elections in England, and the simplest metric to understand is the NEV.
That said, a loss in these elections doesn't necessarily mean a loss of office.
newspaperssatirical news magazines instead.https://x.com/discord/status/2021295316469940606
Due diligence shouldnt look like 'getting a reference from a nonce'
I hope that they are true; he’s useless
Preferred PM polling
Very good for Badenoch in head to heads, Nigel in front in open choice
Is ‘Free breakfast clubs’ the new ‘My Dad was a toolmaker’ !
‘ Whatever is going on in the turmoil of politics, I know that for you and for millions of people, what matters is the cost of living.
That's why we are taking urgent steps to tackle it head on.
Freezing rail fares, rolling out free breakfast clubs and free school meals, boosting the National Living Wage and easing energy bills.
Putting more money in people’s pockets.
That’s my government’s focus.’
https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/2021259971019567322?s=61
https://x.com/i/status/2021311990392852903
“This could end up with New Labour on trial." Court no1 at the Old Bailey: Mandelson, Brown, Alastair Campbell, Blair. It's just crazy.
A Cabinet minister’s verdict revealed in The State of It podcast, just dropped.
Good for SKS too if he can keep Labour the main alternative to Reform as he leads Farage still even if not Kemi or Davey
Its food for thought if nothing more
Time for some humble pie
Officers arrest 13-year-old boy on suspicion of attempted murder after two pupils attacked in north London
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/10/two-teenage-boys-stabbed-at-north-london-school/
https://schoolsweek.co.uk/class-politics-how-old-school-voting-habits-are-unravelling/
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1628883/wes-streeting-abusive-tweets-labour-leadership-apologise-update
Did the tech bros factor this into their calculations that everybody will happily pay $200-2000 / month for super intelligence, rather than spending on looking at boobies?
There is strong support for:
Not Reform
Not Labour
Not Tory.
That's the base line for the election if it were tomorrow.
The complication is the number of different contests it would be. The largest four (in England) are:
Reform v Not Reform
Govt v Not Govt
Right v Left
Establishment v Insurgent.
NEW THREAD
You’ll be doing much more of it by the time the next election comes around. 👍
But on a practical level, it seems insane to think that I used to spend over two hours a day commuting to do something I can do at home anyway. WFH is here to stay, the cure for the social ills probably is 15 minute cities, and hubs for people to work/socialise in
Whatever, Rupert Lowe is right to criticise Farage over this - what has it got to do with the state how people and employers choose to schedule their work schedules?