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This was the worst performance by a Scotsman since Italy v Scotland last weekend

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  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,105

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,915
    edited 5:53AM
    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,246
    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    GIN1138 said:

    https://x.com/RogueUnfiltered/status/2020952079775432915

    Oh dear Wes Streeting and Mandleson were sending kisses and encouraging messages to one another - which could be deemed as very “lovey” ….

    You can almost see Wez shrinking in his seat as he's confronted with that messages... Thinking, oh **** 😂
    "I did not have textual relations with that man, Mr Mandelson."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/feb/09/peter-mandelson-wes-streeting-vetting-moral-seriousness

    image
    I thought that was a fake header not real !!
    I'd say that actually lowers his chances.

    It's so nakedly transparent.
    I think Streeting is rather like Mandelson (part of the reason that I don't like either). There is too much smarmy manipulation, coupled with a preening arrogance. Of course a politician needs some self belief, but no-one believes in themself more than Streeting.

    There's also the feeling that they are always looking over your shoulder, looking for someone more important to talk to. Be nice to people on your way up Wes as you will meet them again on your way down.
    I have had lunch with Wes Streeting when he was still quite a junior MP. I rather liked him.

    He's certainly right that culture change rather than another procedure is needed. But far too many politicians have been complicit in the loss of moral seriousness. Are they the right ones to start making the necessary changes?
    The issue I have with Streeting is that he is too much of an apparatchik. His politics is carefully curated rather than visceral and his hinterland away from politics seems strictly limited.
    Same as Starmer, what does he *actually* believe?
    That Streeting should be PM

    Beyond that anything that means Streeting becomes/remains PM
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,477

    Dopermean said:

    Michael Crick
    @MichaelLCrick
    ·
    2h
    John Healey looks a good bet. The Labour Right like his defence work; the Left recall his media work for the union MSF & the TUC. Aged 66, he may wven appeal to young wannabe leaders, on the rule that young cardinals vote for old popes!

    https://x.com/MichaelLCrick/status/2020930546529075638

    ***Buffs nails***
    You also tipped Hilary Benn ;)
    Trading bet.
    400 of them?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,915
    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    GIN1138 said:

    https://x.com/RogueUnfiltered/status/2020952079775432915

    Oh dear Wes Streeting and Mandleson were sending kisses and encouraging messages to one another - which could be deemed as very “lovey” ….

    You can almost see Wez shrinking in his seat as he's confronted with that messages... Thinking, oh **** 😂
    "I did not have textual relations with that man, Mr Mandelson."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/feb/09/peter-mandelson-wes-streeting-vetting-moral-seriousness

    image
    I thought that was a fake header not real !!
    I'd say that actually lowers his chances.

    It's so nakedly transparent.
    I think Streeting is rather like Mandelson (part of the reason that I don't like either). There is too much smarmy manipulation, coupled with a preening arrogance. Of course a politician needs some self belief, but no-one believes in themself more than Streeting.

    There's also the feeling that they are always looking over your shoulder, looking for someone more important to talk to. Be nice to people on your way up Wes as you will meet them again on your way down.
    I have had lunch with Wes Streeting when he was still quite a junior MP. I rather liked him.

    He's certainly right that culture change rather than another procedure is needed. But far too many politicians have been complicit in the loss of moral seriousness. Are they the right ones to start making the necessary changes?
    The issue I have with Streeting is that he is too much of an apparatchik. His politics is carefully curated rather than visceral and his hinterland away from politics seems strictly limited.
    Same as Starmer, what does he *actually* believe?
    The strange thing is I think it is pretty clear earlier in life Starmer did have strong beliefs. But now he is just looks like a man lost at sea.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,243
    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    Steady on. Let's not be rash.

    Starmer should really go for it now.

    Reform the House of Lords
    Ban foreign ownership of our media
    Referendum on the Monarchy
    Rejoin the EU
    An extra 80% tax on anyone called Nigel

    Give the usual suspects something to really greet about...

    https://x.com/gorbalsgoebbels/status/2020963040464863342

    That's...not a bad idea. I wouldn't go for "rejoin the EU" (we have to sort ourselves first) nor the Referendum on the Monarchy, but if you are going to go down, go down fighting yes?
    Is no one bothered by tax on Nigels ?
    For shame.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,854
    edited 6:05AM

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    GIN1138 said:

    https://x.com/RogueUnfiltered/status/2020952079775432915

    Oh dear Wes Streeting and Mandleson were sending kisses and encouraging messages to one another - which could be deemed as very “lovey” ….

    You can almost see Wez shrinking in his seat as he's confronted with that messages... Thinking, oh **** 😂
    "I did not have textual relations with that man, Mr Mandelson."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/feb/09/peter-mandelson-wes-streeting-vetting-moral-seriousness

    image
    I thought that was a fake header not real !!
    I'd say that actually lowers his chances.

    It's so nakedly transparent.
    I think Streeting is rather like Mandelson (part of the reason that I don't like either). There is too much smarmy manipulation, coupled with a preening arrogance. Of course a politician needs some self belief, but no-one believes in themself more than Streeting.

    There's also the feeling that they are always looking over your shoulder, looking for someone more important to talk to. Be nice to people on your way up Wes as you will meet them again on your way down.
    I have had lunch with Wes Streeting when he was still quite a junior MP. I rather liked him.

    He's certainly right that culture change rather than another procedure is needed. But far too many politicians have been complicit in the loss of moral seriousness. Are they the right ones to start making the necessary changes?
    The issue I have with Streeting is that he is too much of an apparatchik. His politics is carefully curated rather than visceral and his hinterland away from politics seems strictly limited.
    Same as Starmer, what does he *actually* believe?
    The strange thing is I think it is pretty clear earlier in life Starmer did have strong beliefs. But now he is just looks like a man lost at sea.
    He started off as a civil servant, unable to express a belief in anything. As a politician the only thing he’s really stood for was being against everything the Tories were doing, most notably the implementation of the 2016 referendum on EU membership. The manifesto was pretty much empty, and all he’s done in government is raised taxes and a bunch of woke social stuff like hotels for illegals, 40-week abortions, and this ‘assisted dying’ bill that the MPs are now using as an excuse for House of Lords reform. Oh, and paying to give away the Chagos Islands, that’s his flagship policy for 2026.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,507

    @Morris_Dancer

    Don't be afraid to ask about the Battle of Zama, happy to help you understand it better.

    I'm glad you're attempting to follow the example of Hannibal, who gave the Romans such wonderful lessons in tactics and strategy.

    Good morning, everyone.

    I don't really follow car launches/livery stuff, but Aston Martin appear to have had a shocker yesterday. Let's hope that's their worst technical foul-up of the season.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,243

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,915
    edited 6:17AM
    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    I have spoken before about the mistake of 2008-2012 period where both Labour and Tories did the opposite, rather than let zombie companies / departments die, they activately encouraged them stagger on, everybody take a pay freeze for many years rather than cut out the dead woo. I think long term it was a negative. And COVID was the same, support was for too long.

    The thing at the moment is all predictions are for the rest of this parliament growth is going to be absolutely piss poor. So all the pain, no sunny uplands. And if AI does really start to take hold, the disruptive nature again won't have lots of happy people finding they can't get a job. I fear we are going to see this with graduates e.g. entry level coding is already dead, LLMs are already much better than 99% of grads out of computer science degree.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,661
    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    Hang on, isn’t immigration vital to grow the economy?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,915
    edited 6:18AM

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    Hang on, isn’t immigration vital to grow the economy?
    Defo no Strawberries for Wimbledon...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,661

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    Hang on, isn’t immigration vital to grow the economy?
    Defo no Strawberries for Wimbledon...
    But we were told that fruit farmers couldn’t invest in the crop picking machines (or hire them) to replace sub-minimum wage workers because that’s never worked out before.
  • TazTaz Posts: 24,749
    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    Steady on. Let's not be rash.

    Starmer should really go for it now.

    Reform the House of Lords
    Ban foreign ownership of our media
    Referendum on the Monarchy
    Rejoin the EU
    An extra 80% tax on anyone called Nigel

    Give the usual suspects something to really greet about...

    https://x.com/gorbalsgoebbels/status/2020963040464863342

    That's...not a bad idea. I wouldn't go for "rejoin the EU" (we have to sort ourselves first) nor the Referendum on the Monarchy, but if you are going to go down, go down fighting yes?
    Is no one bothered by tax on Nigels ?
    For shame.
    It would not raise a great deal. Sadly your name is going the same way as the Dodo and The Great Auk
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,507
    F1: apparently both Ocon and Newey have said the new regulations will make passing pretty rough. Given things were rough already last season, for Australia I think that may influence my betting thinking (premium on qualifying), unless it's wet.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,481

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    Hang on, isn’t immigration vital to grow the economy?
    Defo no Strawberries for Wimbledon...
    But we were told that fruit farmers couldn’t invest in the crop picking machines (or hire them) to replace sub-minimum wage workers because that’s never worked out before.
    It’s funny isn’t it, that as net migration has dropped sharply, so GDP per head has started to rise. One might almost believe that the two are linked.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,915
    Six men including ‘high-up’ foreign official redacted from Epstein files
    US lawmakers say high-profile individuals were concealed without clear justification

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/02/10/congress-alarm-redacted-names-epstein-files/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,915
    A clear-out of senior officials is set to continue, with the cabinet secretary Chris Wormald also expected to leave his job in the coming days.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c98gy4dxe8yt

    I assume full accountability for the situation, that is why those responsible have been sacked.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,440

    Six men including ‘high-up’ foreign official redacted from Epstein files
    US lawmakers say high-profile individuals were concealed without clear justification

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/02/10/congress-alarm-redacted-names-epstein-files/

    US is as straight as a three-dollar bill.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,661
    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    Hang on, isn’t immigration vital to grow the economy?
    Defo no Strawberries for Wimbledon...
    But we were told that fruit farmers couldn’t invest in the crop picking machines (or hire them) to replace sub-minimum wage workers because that’s never worked out before.
    It’s funny isn’t it, that as net migration has dropped sharply, so GDP per head has started to rise. One might almost believe that the two are linked.
    Mechanisation of agriculture is impossible. Mechanisation of other human tasks is double impossible.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,550

    Six men including ‘high-up’ foreign official redacted from Epstein files
    US lawmakers say high-profile individuals were concealed without clear justification

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/02/10/congress-alarm-redacted-names-epstein-files/

    US is as straight as a three-dollar bill.
    I suspect in this case it was three million dollar bills.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,854

    A clear-out of senior officials is set to continue, with the cabinet secretary Chris Wormald also expected to leave his job in the coming days.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c98gy4dxe8yt

    I assume full accountability for the situation, that is why those responsible have been sacked.

    So those who directly rely on Starmer for their job are clapping like seals in support, meanwhile the rats behind the scenes are all jumping from the sinking ship.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,477

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    Hang on, isn’t immigration vital to grow the economy?
    Defo no Strawberries for Wimbledon...
    But we were told that fruit farmers couldn’t invest in the crop picking machines (or hire them) to replace sub-minimum wage workers because that’s never worked out before.
    It’s funny isn’t it, that as net migration has dropped sharply, so GDP per head has started to rise. One might almost believe that the two are linked.
    Mechanisation of agriculture is impossible. Mechanisation of other human tasks is double impossible.
    Don't knock it until you've tried it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,550
    Sandpit said:

    A clear-out of senior officials is set to continue, with the cabinet secretary Chris Wormald also expected to leave his job in the coming days.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c98gy4dxe8yt

    I assume full accountability for the situation, that is why those responsible have been sacked.

    So those who directly rely on Starmer for their job are clapping like seals in support, meanwhile the rats behind the scenes are all jumping from the sinking ship.
    Can’t see that Wormald is much loss, to be honest.

    I may change my mind if he’s replaced by Acland-Hood.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,482
    Has he resigned yet?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,661
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A clear-out of senior officials is set to continue, with the cabinet secretary Chris Wormald also expected to leave his job in the coming days.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c98gy4dxe8yt

    I assume full accountability for the situation, that is why those responsible have been sacked.

    So those who directly rely on Starmer for their job are clapping like seals in support, meanwhile the rats behind the scenes are all jumping from the sinking ship.
    Can’t see that Wormald is much loss, to be honest.

    I may change my mind if he’s replaced by Acland-Hood.
    You realise there is worse than Acland-Hood?


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,854
    edited 7:19AM

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    Hang on, isn’t immigration vital to grow the economy?
    Defo no Strawberries for Wimbledon...
    But we were told that fruit farmers couldn’t invest in the crop picking machines (or hire them) to replace sub-minimum wage workers because that’s never worked out before.
    It’s funny isn’t it, that as net migration has dropped sharply, so GDP per head has started to rise. One might almost believe that the two are linked.
    Mechanisation of agriculture is impossible. Mechanisation of other human tasks is double impossible.
    Imagine how much cheaper a loaf of bread would be, if it didn’t take the farmer and his sons two weeks of back-breaking effort to scythe his wheat field every year, before carrying it by donkey to the local market square to sell it to the baker.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,283

    Yokes said:

    Who did Sarwar think was going to go with him on this?

    That's the question, of course. Sarwar is not a bright bulb, even by the risible standards of Scottish politics, but he's not stupid enough to do this without a strong expectation of support from at least one other senior figure in Labour.

    Someone shafted him really good.
    Maybe he thought putting some distance between Scottish Labour and English Labour was tactically sensible, given that he’s on the edge of a cliff, and English Labour rowing in behind the unpopular PM doesn’t do him any harm north of the border?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,243

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    I have spoken before about the mistake of 2008-2012 period where both Labour and Tories did the opposite, rather than let zombie companies / departments die, they activately encouraged them stagger on, everybody take a pay freeze for many years rather than cut out the dead woo. I think long term it was a negative. And COVID was the same, support was for too long.

    The thing at the moment is all predictions are for the rest of this parliament growth is going to be absolutely piss poor. So all the pain, no sunny uplands. And if AI does really start to take hold, the disruptive nature again won't have lots of happy people finding they can't get a job. I fear we are going to see this with graduates e.g. entry level coding is already dead, LLMs are already much better than 99% of grads out of computer science degree.
    My point is that you called it statistical jiggery pokery.
    Which it doesn't seem to be.

    Secular changes in the economy are certainly a huge challenge for this (and any) government. I certainly dint think either Reform or the Tories have any more insight into that than does this mediocre government.

    Manufacturing economies will find it easier to cope than service economies like ours.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,283

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    GIN1138 said:

    https://x.com/RogueUnfiltered/status/2020952079775432915

    Oh dear Wes Streeting and Mandleson were sending kisses and encouraging messages to one another - which could be deemed as very “lovey” ….

    You can almost see Wez shrinking in his seat as he's confronted with that messages... Thinking, oh **** 😂
    "I did not have textual relations with that man, Mr Mandelson."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/feb/09/peter-mandelson-wes-streeting-vetting-moral-seriousness

    image
    I thought that was a fake header not real !!
    I'd say that actually lowers his chances.

    It's so nakedly transparent.
    I think Streeting is rather like Mandelson (part of the reason that I don't like either). There is too much smarmy manipulation, coupled with a preening arrogance. Of course a politician needs some self belief, but no-one believes in themself more than Streeting.

    There's also the feeling that they are always looking over your shoulder, looking for someone more important to talk to. Be nice to people on your way up Wes as you will meet them again on your way down.
    I have had lunch with Wes Streeting when he was still quite a junior MP. I rather liked him.

    He's certainly right that culture change rather than another procedure is needed. But far too many politicians have been complicit in the loss of moral seriousness. Are they the right ones to start making the necessary changes?
    The issue I have with Streeting is that he is too much of an apparatchik. His politics is carefully curated rather than visceral and his hinterland away from politics seems strictly limited.
    Same as Starmer, what does he *actually* believe?
    The strange thing is I think it is pretty clear earlier in life Starmer did have strong beliefs. But now he is just looks like a man lost at sea.
    For an intelligent man, it’s easier to pontificate about how everything should be different, from a distance when you’re unaware of the myriad reasons why changing anything will be costly, difficult, unpopular, and likely counter-productive. Now he’s in the big chair, he’s paralysed by the impossibility of it all; it would require someone with more drive and less insight to press ahead regardless.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,661
    edited 7:28AM
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    Hang on, isn’t immigration vital to grow the economy?
    Defo no Strawberries for Wimbledon...
    But we were told that fruit farmers couldn’t invest in the crop picking machines (or hire them) to replace sub-minimum wage workers because that’s never worked out before.
    It’s funny isn’t it, that as net migration has dropped sharply, so GDP per head has started to rise. One might almost believe that the two are linked.
    Mechanisation of agriculture is impossible. Mechanisation of other human tasks is double impossible.
    Imagine how much cheaper a loaf of bread would be, if it didn’t take the farmer and his sons two weeks of back-breaking effort to scythe his wheat field every year, before carrying it by donkey to the local market square to sell it to the baker.
    Can’t happen.

    That’s just a billionaires dream. Fire 98% of the work force. There would be no jobs.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,661
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    I have spoken before about the mistake of 2008-2012 period where both Labour and Tories did the opposite, rather than let zombie companies / departments die, they activately encouraged them stagger on, everybody take a pay freeze for many years rather than cut out the dead woo. I think long term it was a negative. And COVID was the same, support was for too long.

    The thing at the moment is all predictions are for the rest of this parliament growth is going to be absolutely piss poor. So all the pain, no sunny uplands. And if AI does really start to take hold, the disruptive nature again won't have lots of happy people finding they can't get a job. I fear we are going to see this with graduates e.g. entry level coding is already dead, LLMs are already much better than 99% of grads out of computer science degree.
    My point is that you called it statistical jiggery pokery.
    Which it doesn't seem to be.

    Secular changes in the economy are certainly a huge challenge for this (and any) government. I certainly dint think either Reform or the Tories have any more insight into that than does this mediocre government.

    Manufacturing economies will find it easier to cope than service economies like ours.
    Dark factories are the future. And are already here.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,243
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    GIN1138 said:

    https://x.com/RogueUnfiltered/status/2020952079775432915

    Oh dear Wes Streeting and Mandleson were sending kisses and encouraging messages to one another - which could be deemed as very “lovey” ….

    You can almost see Wez shrinking in his seat as he's confronted with that messages... Thinking, oh **** 😂
    "I did not have textual relations with that man, Mr Mandelson."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/feb/09/peter-mandelson-wes-streeting-vetting-moral-seriousness

    image
    I thought that was a fake header not real !!
    I'd say that actually lowers his chances.

    It's so nakedly transparent.
    I think Streeting is rather like Mandelson (part of the reason that I don't like either). There is too much smarmy manipulation, coupled with a preening arrogance. Of course a politician needs some self belief, but no-one believes in themself more than Streeting.

    There's also the feeling that they are always looking over your shoulder, looking for someone more important to talk to. Be nice to people on your way up Wes as you will meet them again on your way down.
    I have had lunch with Wes Streeting when he was still quite a junior MP. I rather liked him.

    He's certainly right that culture change rather than another procedure is needed. But far too many politicians have been complicit in the loss of moral seriousness. Are they the right ones to start making the necessary changes?
    The issue I have with Streeting is that he is too much of an apparatchik. His politics is carefully curated rather than visceral and his hinterland away from politics seems strictly limited.
    Same as Starmer, what does he *actually* believe?
    The strange thing is I think it is pretty clear earlier in life Starmer did have strong beliefs. But now he is just looks like a man lost at sea.
    For an intelligent man, it’s easier to pontificate about how everything should be different, from a distance when you’re unaware of the myriad reasons why changing anything will be costly, difficult, unpopular, and likely counter-productive. Now he’s in the big chair, he’s paralysed by the impossibility of it all; it would require someone with more drive and less insight to press ahead regardless.
    I don't buy that.
    Certainly there are plenty of intractable , but there's also stuff that Labour planned to do (eg planning reforms/infrastructure) where they had credible plans for delivery, which they've been pitifully slow to advance.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,243

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    Hang on, isn’t immigration vital to grow the economy?
    Defo no Strawberries for Wimbledon...
    But we were told that fruit farmers couldn’t invest in the crop picking machines (or hire them) to replace sub-minimum wage workers because that’s never worked out before.
    It’s funny isn’t it, that as net migration has dropped sharply, so GDP per head has started to rise. One might almost believe that the two are linked.
    Mechanisation of agriculture is impossible. Mechanisation of other human tasks is double impossible.
    Imagine how much cheaper a loaf of bread would be, if it didn’t take the farmer and his sons two weeks of back-breaking effort to scythe his wheat field every year, before carrying it by donkey to the local market square to sell it to the baker.
    Can’t happen.

    That’s just a billionaires dream. Fire 98% of the work force. There would be no jobs.
    I think your irony is falling in stony ground.

    But it's an interesting question what the mechanisation of thought will do to economies, and how the gains on productivity will benefit different sets of people, or different countries.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,661
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cicero said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    GIN1138 said:

    https://x.com/RogueUnfiltered/status/2020952079775432915

    Oh dear Wes Streeting and Mandleson were sending kisses and encouraging messages to one another - which could be deemed as very “lovey” ….

    You can almost see Wez shrinking in his seat as he's confronted with that messages... Thinking, oh **** 😂
    "I did not have textual relations with that man, Mr Mandelson."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/feb/09/peter-mandelson-wes-streeting-vetting-moral-seriousness

    image
    I thought that was a fake header not real !!
    I'd say that actually lowers his chances.

    It's so nakedly transparent.
    I think Streeting is rather like Mandelson (part of the reason that I don't like either). There is too much smarmy manipulation, coupled with a preening arrogance. Of course a politician needs some self belief, but no-one believes in themself more than Streeting.

    There's also the feeling that they are always looking over your shoulder, looking for someone more important to talk to. Be nice to people on your way up Wes as you will meet them again on your way down.
    I have had lunch with Wes Streeting when he was still quite a junior MP. I rather liked him.

    He's certainly right that culture change rather than another procedure is needed. But far too many politicians have been complicit in the loss of moral seriousness. Are they the right ones to start making the necessary changes?
    The issue I have with Streeting is that he is too much of an apparatchik. His politics is carefully curated rather than visceral and his hinterland away from politics seems strictly limited.
    Same as Starmer, what does he *actually* believe?
    The strange thing is I think it is pretty clear earlier in life Starmer did have strong beliefs. But now he is just looks like a man lost at sea.
    For an intelligent man, it’s easier to pontificate about how everything should be different, from a distance when you’re unaware of the myriad reasons why changing anything will be costly, difficult, unpopular, and likely counter-productive. Now he’s in the big chair, he’s paralysed by the impossibility of it all; it would require someone with more drive and less insight to press ahead regardless.
    I don't buy that.
    Certainly there are plenty of intractable , but there's also stuff that Labour planned to do (eg planning reforms/infrastructure) where they had credible plans for delivery, which they've been pitifully slow to advance.
    The entire system of state is about eroding change, as water erodes stone.

    Which is why it takes focus and commitment to change *the culture” in the organisation. When you’ve done that, the policies and actions flow naturally. Think moving the flow of a river, rather than trying to carry buckets of water across the desert.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,661
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    Hang on, isn’t immigration vital to grow the economy?
    Defo no Strawberries for Wimbledon...
    But we were told that fruit farmers couldn’t invest in the crop picking machines (or hire them) to replace sub-minimum wage workers because that’s never worked out before.
    It’s funny isn’t it, that as net migration has dropped sharply, so GDP per head has started to rise. One might almost believe that the two are linked.
    Mechanisation of agriculture is impossible. Mechanisation of other human tasks is double impossible.
    Imagine how much cheaper a loaf of bread would be, if it didn’t take the farmer and his sons two weeks of back-breaking effort to scythe his wheat field every year, before carrying it by donkey to the local market square to sell it to the baker.
    Can’t happen.

    That’s just a billionaires dream. Fire 98% of the work force. There would be no jobs.
    I think your irony is falling in stony ground.

    But it's an interesting question what the mechanisation of thought will do to economies, and how the gains on productivity will benefit different sets of people, or different countries.
    All the “AI” I’ve seen isn’t the mechanisation of thought.

    It’s the conversion of mechanical tasks undertaken by training humans to act like machines.

    Real thinking is where “AI” breaks down.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,362

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    That's exactly what productivity is - output per hour worked. Scotland had very strong productivity growth in the early 2010s because we managed to retain O&G and banking, while lots of minimum-wage jobs were lost.

    You're right that it doesn't mean much in the short run (and is often offset by other, negative factors), but in the long run it's what underpins economic growth and/or increases in human welfare.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,550
    edited 7:40AM

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A clear-out of senior officials is set to continue, with the cabinet secretary Chris Wormald also expected to leave his job in the coming days.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c98gy4dxe8yt

    I assume full accountability for the situation, that is why those responsible have been sacked.

    So those who directly rely on Starmer for their job are clapping like seals in support, meanwhile the rats behind the scenes are all jumping from the sinking ship.
    Can’t see that Wormald is much loss, to be honest.

    I may change my mind if he’s replaced by Acland-Hood.
    You realise there is worse than Acland-Hood?


    Really? How does this unidentified person walk and breathe at the same time? Why, Acland-Hood can’t count to three even with her fingers.

    Palpatine would be way better as cabinet secretary and PM than the current encumbrances. He’d just get Vader to sort out some of these muppets.

    ‘Apology accepted, Lord Mandelson.’
  • TazTaz Posts: 24,749
    Still, there’s always the Calcutta Cup for Scotland to redeem their sporting prowess this weekend.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,362
    edited 7:45AM
    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    Hang on, isn’t immigration vital to grow the economy?
    Defo no Strawberries for Wimbledon...
    But we were told that fruit farmers couldn’t invest in the crop picking machines (or hire them) to replace sub-minimum wage workers because that’s never worked out before.
    It’s funny isn’t it, that as net migration has dropped sharply, so GDP per head has started to rise. One might almost believe that the two are linked.
    In a country where 50% of people are not in work, this isn't a given. Indeed if there is a linear relationship between output and wage*, even miminim wage workers are significant net contributors to GDP per capita, because current GDP per worker is about £90,000 per year on average, and the average wage is half that. It depends on whether migrants are more or less likely to be in work than the existing population.


    *This is obviously not the case, and impossible to measure, but gives us an idea.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,283
    An Irish man has spent five months in US Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention and faces deportation despite having a valid work permit and no criminal record.

    Seamus Culleton was a “model immigrant” who had become the victim of a capricious and inept system, said his lawyer, Ogor Winnie Okoye.

    Originally from County Kilkenny, Culleton is married to a US citizen and runs a plastering business in the Boston area. While buying supplies at a hardware store on 9 September 2025 he was arrested in a random immigration sweep, according to Okoye, of BOS Legal Group in Massachusetts.


    All this, apparently, because he overstayed a visitor visa back in 2009 but subsequently got permission to stay
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,802

    Six men including ‘high-up’ foreign official redacted from Epstein files
    US lawmakers say high-profile individuals were concealed without clear justification

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/02/10/congress-alarm-redacted-names-epstein-files/

    There was a clear justification. Releasing their names would have embarrassed them and by association, the President of the United States.

    Can't have such people linked to the sleazeball Epstein and his sleazeball social gatherings/blackmail events.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,063
    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    "Zombie companies going under" is also why our High Sts are dying, even in quite big cities like Leicester, as much of that Zombie economy is in retail, pubs etc. That is the flip-side of that creative destruction, as is secure employment for Milenials and Gen Z.

    Thatcher's "creative destruction" is responsible for the death mass employment in manufacturing in Midlands and North, and our economic dependence on financial services and consumerism, so indirectly responsible for the reactionary wave of Reform in the old "Red Wall". There's some irony in the voters of these places voting for the Thatcherite throwbacks that destroyed their communities.
  • eekeek Posts: 32,528
    IanB2 said:

    An Irish man has spent five months in US Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention and faces deportation despite having a valid work permit and no criminal record.

    Seamus Culleton was a “model immigrant” who had become the victim of a capricious and inept system, said his lawyer, Ogor Winnie Okoye.

    Originally from County Kilkenny, Culleton is married to a US citizen and runs a plastering business in the Boston area. While buying supplies at a hardware store on 9 September 2025 he was arrested in a random immigration sweep, according to Okoye, of BOS Legal Group in Massachusetts.


    All this, apparently, because he overstayed a visitor visa back in 2009 but subsequently got permission to stay

    Oh I wondered what the reason was in that case.

    My advice for anyone who cares about this case to to point out that Elon Musk did the exact same thing....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,065
    Good morning PB.

    Will Wez be sacked today?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,925
    IanB2 said:

    An Irish man has spent five months in US Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention and faces deportation despite having a valid work permit and no criminal record.

    Seamus Culleton was a “model immigrant” who had become the victim of a capricious and inept system, said his lawyer, Ogor Winnie Okoye.

    Originally from County Kilkenny, Culleton is married to a US citizen and runs a plastering business in the Boston area. While buying supplies at a hardware store on 9 September 2025 he was arrested in a random immigration sweep, according to Okoye, of BOS Legal Group in Massachusetts.


    All this, apparently, because he overstayed a visitor visa back in 2009 but subsequently got permission to stay

    Maga get off on the cruelty especially when they can break up families .
  • eekeek Posts: 32,528
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    "Zombie companies going under" is also why our High Sts are dying, even in quite big cities like Leicester, as much of that Zombie economy is in retail, pubs etc. That is the flip-side of that creative destruction, as is secure employment for Milenials and Gen Z.

    Thatcher's "creative destruction" is responsible for the death mass employment in manufacturing in Midlands and North, and our economic dependence on financial services and consumerism, so indirectly responsible for the reactionary wave of Reform in the old "Red Wall". There's some irony in the voters of these places voting for the Thatcherite throwbacks that destroyed their communities.
    What is remarkable around here (and will be in Leicester as well) is that the town centres that are thriving are the small towns of say 40-50,000 people where there is a bit of money.

    Barkers in Northallerton is about to become the only department store left between Newcastle and York / Leeds...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,362
    edited 7:57AM
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    "Zombie companies going under" is also why our High Sts are dying, even in quite big cities like Leicester, as much of that Zombie economy is in retail, pubs etc. That is the flip-side of that creative destruction, as is secure employment for Milenials and Gen Z.

    Thatcher's "creative destruction" is responsible for the death mass employment in manufacturing in Midlands and North, and our economic dependence on financial services and consumerism, so indirectly responsible for the reactionary wave of Reform in the old "Red Wall". There's some irony in the voters of these places voting for the Thatcherite throwbacks that destroyed their communities.
    Yes, it's not without cost. The hope is that such firms don't dominate a local economy like a steelworks or mine does, so you don't get decades-long economic devastation as a result. But a common theme across economic history is the kind of disruption that often heralds massive economic growth (e.g. the clearances, agricultural revolution, industrial revolution) also generates extreme poverty and mass migration along the way.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,271
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    An Irish man has spent five months in US Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention and faces deportation despite having a valid work permit and no criminal record.

    Seamus Culleton was a “model immigrant” who had become the victim of a capricious and inept system, said his lawyer, Ogor Winnie Okoye.

    Originally from County Kilkenny, Culleton is married to a US citizen and runs a plastering business in the Boston area. While buying supplies at a hardware store on 9 September 2025 he was arrested in a random immigration sweep, according to Okoye, of BOS Legal Group in Massachusetts.


    All this, apparently, because he overstayed a visitor visa back in 2009 but subsequently got permission to stay

    Oh I wondered what the reason was in that case.

    My advice for anyone who cares about this case to to point out that Elon Musk did the exact same thing....
    Apparently he's signed a deportation agreement while in custody but is adamant it's not his signature. However he's not allowed to appeal.
    "The judge noted irregularities in ICE’s court documents but sided with the agency. Under US law Culleton cannot appeal but he wants handwriting experts to examine the signatures and believes a video of his interview with ICE in Buffalo would prove he refused to sign deportation documents."
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,348

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    Hang on, isn’t immigration vital to grow the economy?
    Defo no Strawberries for Wimbledon...
    But we were told that fruit farmers couldn’t invest in the crop picking machines (or hire them) to replace sub-minimum wage workers because that’s never worked out before.
    It’s funny isn’t it, that as net migration has dropped sharply, so GDP per head has started to rise. One might almost believe that the two are linked.
    Mechanisation of agriculture is impossible. Mechanisation of other human tasks is double impossible.
    Imagine how much cheaper a loaf of bread would be, if it didn’t take the farmer and his sons two weeks of back-breaking effort to scythe his wheat field every year, before carrying it by donkey to the local market square to sell it to the baker.
    Can’t happen.

    That’s just a billionaires dream. Fire 98% of the work force. There would be no jobs.
    I think your irony is falling in stony ground.

    But it's an interesting question what the mechanisation of thought will do to economies, and how the gains on productivity will benefit different sets of people, or different countries.
    All the “AI” I’ve seen isn’t the mechanisation of thought.

    It’s the conversion of mechanical tasks undertaken by training humans to act like machines.

    Real thinking is where “AI” breaks down.
    That’s not my experience at all. AI can reason and weigh up things if asked to.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,550
    Dopermean said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    An Irish man has spent five months in US Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention and faces deportation despite having a valid work permit and no criminal record.

    Seamus Culleton was a “model immigrant” who had become the victim of a capricious and inept system, said his lawyer, Ogor Winnie Okoye.

    Originally from County Kilkenny, Culleton is married to a US citizen and runs a plastering business in the Boston area. While buying supplies at a hardware store on 9 September 2025 he was arrested in a random immigration sweep, according to Okoye, of BOS Legal Group in Massachusetts.


    All this, apparently, because he overstayed a visitor visa back in 2009 but subsequently got permission to stay

    Oh I wondered what the reason was in that case.

    My advice for anyone who cares about this case to to point out that Elon Musk did the exact same thing....
    Apparently he's signed a deportation agreement while in custody but is adamant it's not his signature. However he's not allowed to appeal.
    "The judge noted irregularities in ICE’s court documents but sided with the agency. Under US law Culleton cannot appeal but he wants handwriting experts to examine the signatures and believes a video of his interview with ICE in Buffalo would prove he refused to sign deportation documents."
    This is sounding like a very good reason not to visit the US at the moment, frankly.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,477
    edited 8:03AM
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    "Zombie companies going under" is also why our High Sts are dying, even in quite big cities like Leicester, as much of that Zombie economy is in retail, pubs etc. That is the flip-side of that creative destruction, as is secure employment for Milenials and Gen Z.

    Thatcher's "creative destruction" is responsible for the death mass employment in manufacturing in Midlands and North, and our economic dependence on financial services and consumerism, so indirectly responsible for the reactionary wave of Reform in the old "Red Wall". There's some irony in the voters of these places voting for the Thatcherite throwbacks that destroyed their communities.
    Back to Bart's (?) theory of housing. Businesses move (I've moved a few) but people don't. They are (rightly) invested in their communities, family and friends. There is also their investment (?) in bricks and mortar that becomes difficult to sell if they are in negative equity.

    My guess is that the Renters Right Act will have some effect on the ability of Renters to move to where the jobs are. Not too sure about homeowners though.
  • eekeek Posts: 32,528

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    Hang on, isn’t immigration vital to grow the economy?
    Defo no Strawberries for Wimbledon...
    But we were told that fruit farmers couldn’t invest in the crop picking machines (or hire them) to replace sub-minimum wage workers because that’s never worked out before.
    It’s funny isn’t it, that as net migration has dropped sharply, so GDP per head has started to rise. One might almost believe that the two are linked.
    Mechanisation of agriculture is impossible. Mechanisation of other human tasks is double impossible.
    Imagine how much cheaper a loaf of bread would be, if it didn’t take the farmer and his sons two weeks of back-breaking effort to scythe his wheat field every year, before carrying it by donkey to the local market square to sell it to the baker.
    Can’t happen.

    That’s just a billionaires dream. Fire 98% of the work force. There would be no jobs.
    I think your irony is falling in stony ground.

    But it's an interesting question what the mechanisation of thought will do to economies, and how the gains on productivity will benefit different sets of people, or different countries.
    All the “AI” I’ve seen isn’t the mechanisation of thought.

    It’s the conversion of mechanical tasks undertaken by training humans to act like machines.

    Real thinking is where “AI” breaks down.
    That’s not my experience at all. AI can reason and weigh up things if asked to.
    Um it can't - it's a statistical engine which means you can easily push the decision in 1 direction just be swamping it with information from that side.

    Mind you that's no different to human beings just check the political views of anyone who watches GBeebies...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,348
    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    Hang on, isn’t immigration vital to grow the economy?
    Defo no Strawberries for Wimbledon...
    But we were told that fruit farmers couldn’t invest in the crop picking machines (or hire them) to replace sub-minimum wage workers because that’s never worked out before.
    It’s funny isn’t it, that as net migration has dropped sharply, so GDP per head has started to rise. One might almost believe that the two are linked.
    Mechanisation of agriculture is impossible. Mechanisation of other human tasks is double impossible.
    Imagine how much cheaper a loaf of bread would be, if it didn’t take the farmer and his sons two weeks of back-breaking effort to scythe his wheat field every year, before carrying it by donkey to the local market square to sell it to the baker.
    Can’t happen.

    That’s just a billionaires dream. Fire 98% of the work force. There would be no jobs.
    I think your irony is falling in stony ground.

    But it's an interesting question what the mechanisation of thought will do to economies, and how the gains on productivity will benefit different sets of people, or different countries.
    All the “AI” I’ve seen isn’t the mechanisation of thought.

    It’s the conversion of mechanical tasks undertaken by training humans to act like machines.

    Real thinking is where “AI” breaks down.
    AI cannot distinguish lies from truth; it has no sense of humour, or irony; it cannot think originally, but only create pastiches; it cannot tell if an argument is founded upon a fallacy. It cannot do original research.

    It is exceptionally good at processing, and summarising, information that is very well sourced.
    This isn’t accurate at all
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,802
    GIN1138 said:

    Good morning PB.

    Will Wez be sacked today?

    Somebody needs to be outside the tent. Labour currently has every one of Starmer's detractors inside the tent taking the piss.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,348
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    Hang on, isn’t immigration vital to grow the economy?
    Defo no Strawberries for Wimbledon...
    But we were told that fruit farmers couldn’t invest in the crop picking machines (or hire them) to replace sub-minimum wage workers because that’s never worked out before.
    It’s funny isn’t it, that as net migration has dropped sharply, so GDP per head has started to rise. One might almost believe that the two are linked.
    Mechanisation of agriculture is impossible. Mechanisation of other human tasks is double impossible.
    Imagine how much cheaper a loaf of bread would be, if it didn’t take the farmer and his sons two weeks of back-breaking effort to scythe his wheat field every year, before carrying it by donkey to the local market square to sell it to the baker.
    Can’t happen.

    That’s just a billionaires dream. Fire 98% of the work force. There would be no jobs.
    I think your irony is falling in stony ground.

    But it's an interesting question what the mechanisation of thought will do to economies, and how the gains on productivity will benefit different sets of people, or different countries.
    All the “AI” I’ve seen isn’t the mechanisation of thought.

    It’s the conversion of mechanical tasks undertaken by training humans to act like machines.

    Real thinking is where “AI” breaks down.
    That’s not my experience at all. AI can reason and weigh up things if asked to.
    Um it can't - it's a statistical engine which means you can easily push the decision in 1 direction just be swamping it with information from that side.

    Mind you that's no different to human beings just check the political views of anyone who watches GBeebies...
    Yes, it can. Have you used the frontier models in that capacity? I.e. not CoPilot. I use them every day at work. They absolutely can reason. They are not perfect but they can argue both sides of a coin if asked to and weigh up the strength of arguments.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,063
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    "Zombie companies going under" is also why our High Sts are dying, even in quite big cities like Leicester, as much of that Zombie economy is in retail, pubs etc. That is the flip-side of that creative destruction, as is secure employment for Milenials and Gen Z.

    Thatcher's "creative destruction" is responsible for the death mass employment in manufacturing in Midlands and North, and our economic dependence on financial services and consumerism, so indirectly responsible for the reactionary wave of Reform in the old "Red Wall". There's some irony in the voters of these places voting for the Thatcherite throwbacks that destroyed their communities.
    What is remarkable around here (and will be in Leicester as well) is that the town centres that are thriving are the small towns of say 40-50,000 people where there is a bit of money.

    Barkers in Northallerton is about to become the only department store left between Newcastle and York / Leeds...
    Similarly Market Harborough is better as a retail experience than Leicester at 10 times the population.

    Posh market towns are very different to similar sized towns with lower prosperity. I think this part of the political disconnect in the country.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,555
    I believe Starmer gave a stormer of a performance at the meeting of the PLP last night. What are the chances that this happened behind closed doors and we only have hearsay reports!
    You wouldn’t know this passionate, principled, persuasive Starmer, they go to a different school.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,555
    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    Hang on, isn’t immigration vital to grow the economy?
    Defo no Strawberries for Wimbledon...
    But we were told that fruit farmers couldn’t invest in the crop picking machines (or hire them) to replace sub-minimum wage workers because that’s never worked out before.
    It’s funny isn’t it, that as net migration has dropped sharply, so GDP per head has started to rise. One might almost believe that the two are linked.
    Mechanisation of agriculture is impossible. Mechanisation of other human tasks is double impossible.
    Imagine how much cheaper a loaf of bread would be, if it didn’t take the farmer and his sons two weeks of back-breaking effort to scythe his wheat field every year, before carrying it by donkey to the local market square to sell it to the baker.
    Can’t happen.

    That’s just a billionaires dream. Fire 98% of the work force. There would be no jobs.
    I think your irony is falling in stony ground.

    But it's an interesting question what the mechanisation of thought will do to economies, and how the gains on productivity will benefit different sets of people, or different countries.
    All the “AI” I’ve seen isn’t the mechanisation of thought.

    It’s the conversion of mechanical tasks undertaken by training humans to act like machines.

    Real thinking is where “AI” breaks down.
    AI cannot distinguish lies from truth; it has no sense of humour, or irony; it cannot think originally, but only create pastiches; it cannot tell if an argument is founded upon a fallacy. It cannot do original research.

    It is exceptionally good at processing, and summarising, information that is very well sourced.
    So that’s the jobs of several PBers taken.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,273

    NEW THREAD

  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,829
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    "Zombie companies going under" is also why our High Sts are dying, even in quite big cities like Leicester, as much of that Zombie economy is in retail, pubs etc. That is the flip-side of that creative destruction, as is secure employment for Milenials and Gen Z.

    Thatcher's "creative destruction" is responsible for the death mass employment in manufacturing in Midlands and North, and our economic dependence on financial services and consumerism, so indirectly responsible for the reactionary wave of Reform in the old "Red Wall". There's some irony in the voters of these places voting for the Thatcherite throwbacks that destroyed their communities.
    My local town centre, which has been moribund for years, recently revived with an imaginative bit of simple beautification and is now thriving, with a pretty good food and drink offer. It has now been sold to an American company who, I am sure, will now up the rents and make it impossible for the small businesses therein to priperly thrive.
    The model whereby our town centres are owned by distant and indifferent companies is unhelpful.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,243

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    Hang on, isn’t immigration vital to grow the economy?
    Defo no Strawberries for Wimbledon...
    But we were told that fruit farmers couldn’t invest in the crop picking machines (or hire them) to replace sub-minimum wage workers because that’s never worked out before.
    It’s funny isn’t it, that as net migration has dropped sharply, so GDP per head has started to rise. One might almost believe that the two are linked.
    Mechanisation of agriculture is impossible. Mechanisation of other human tasks is double impossible.
    Imagine how much cheaper a loaf of bread would be, if it didn’t take the farmer and his sons two weeks of back-breaking effort to scythe his wheat field every year, before carrying it by donkey to the local market square to sell it to the baker.
    Can’t happen.

    That’s just a billionaires dream. Fire 98% of the work force. There would be no jobs.
    I think your irony is falling in stony ground.

    But it's an interesting question what the mechanisation of thought will do to economies, and how the gains on productivity will benefit different sets of people, or different countries.
    All the “AI” I’ve seen isn’t the mechanisation of thought.

    It’s the conversion of mechanical tasks undertaken by training humans to act like machines.

    Real thinking is where “AI” breaks down.
    No, it's the automation of a significant set of cognitive tasks - and one thing it does far faster than any human is knowledge search.
    AI doesn't think (and may not for a long time, if ever), but it does stuff that most people would have classed as thinking, up until quite recently.

    Whether you or I are classing it correctly is mere semantics. The point is that it does an awful lot of stuff as well, and much more quickly, than not a few "knowledge workers". That work requires both human direction and supervision - but that's something not wildly different from a lot of human workers requiring direction and supervision.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,119
    Trouble at mill......Australia this time. You'd think govrerments would learn. the public don't like mass murderers to be invited as celebrated guests. Starmer take note

    https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=antii+israel+march+in+australia#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:7a0e04c6,vid:LZKYyX-kCVo,st:0
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,297
    IanB2 said:

    An Irish man has spent five months in US Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention and faces deportation despite having a valid work permit and no criminal record.

    Seamus Culleton was a “model immigrant” who had become the victim of a capricious and inept system, said his lawyer, Ogor Winnie Okoye.

    Originally from County Kilkenny, Culleton is married to a US citizen and runs a plastering business in the Boston area. While buying supplies at a hardware store on 9 September 2025 he was arrested in a random immigration sweep, according to Okoye, of BOS Legal Group in Massachusetts.


    All this, apparently, because he overstayed a visitor visa back in 2009 but subsequently got permission to stay

    "Subsequently" being in 2025. 16 years overstay...

    Doesn't excuse ICE forging his signature, or locking him up for 5 months. But it's not a little overstay. And it looks like the "permission to stay" not yet permanent.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,243

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    I have spoken before about the mistake of 2008-2012 period where both Labour and Tories did the opposite, rather than let zombie companies / departments die, they activately encouraged them stagger on, everybody take a pay freeze for many years rather than cut out the dead woo. I think long term it was a negative. And COVID was the same, support was for too long.

    The thing at the moment is all predictions are for the rest of this parliament growth is going to be absolutely piss poor. So all the pain, no sunny uplands. And if AI does really start to take hold, the disruptive nature again won't have lots of happy people finding they can't get a job. I fear we are going to see this with graduates e.g. entry level coding is already dead, LLMs are already much better than 99% of grads out of computer science degree.
    My point is that you called it statistical jiggery pokery.
    Which it doesn't seem to be.

    Secular changes in the economy are certainly a huge challenge for this (and any) government. I certainly dint think either Reform or the Tories have any more insight into that than does this mediocre government.

    Manufacturing economies will find it easier to cope than service economies like ours.
    Dark factories are the future. And are already here.
    Of course.
    But manufacturing nations will have a lot more of them than we will, unless there's a massive change in how we manage our economy. If we don't produce "stuff", and if knowledge automation erodes our competitive advantage in services (which isn't a given, but is certainly a risk), then we will be in a more parlous state than we now are.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,667

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    I have spoken before about the mistake of 2008-2012 period where both Labour and Tories did the opposite, rather than let zombie companies / departments die, they activately encouraged them stagger on, everybody take a pay freeze for many years rather than cut out the dead woo. I think long term it was a negative. And COVID was the same, support was for too long.

    The thing at the moment is all predictions are for the rest of this parliament growth is going to be absolutely piss poor. So all the pain, no sunny uplands. And if AI does really start to take hold, the disruptive nature again won't have lots of happy people finding they can't get a job. I fear we are going to see this with graduates e.g. entry level coding is already dead, LLMs are already much better than 99% of grads out of computer science degree.
    But grads out of a computer science degree get better and, once they’ve several years of experience under their belts, and supplemented by an LLM, they are much better than an LLM alone.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,477
    People like people and not AI is the current mantra in some areas of business. This Klarna case study is doing the rounds for those that still want to sell AI but recognise that not all customers want a chatbot.

    https://poly.ai/blog/klarna-ai-customer-service-lessons/?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,498
    IanB2 said:

    Yokes said:

    Who did Sarwar think was going to go with him on this?

    That's the question, of course. Sarwar is not a bright bulb, even by the risible standards of Scottish politics, but he's not stupid enough to do this without a strong expectation of support from at least one other senior figure in Labour.

    Someone shafted him really good.
    Maybe he thought putting some distance between Scottish Labour and English Labour was tactically sensible, given that he’s on the edge of a cliff, and English Labour rowing in behind the unpopular PM doesn’t do him any harm north of the border?
    As I said yesterday, we need some Scottish polls.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,854
    Battlebus said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Inflation drops.

    Net immigration falls sharply again.

    If Starmer had any political skill he’d be able to make hay.

    Strong productivity growth - more in last year than previous 7 combined!
    https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/uk-productivity-grew-more-in-the-last-year-than-in-the-previous-seven-combined/

    Due to statistical jiggery pokery / assumption by the author in search of a story, where by due to rise in unemployment, which is down to zombie companies who were supported for too long during COVID going bust and probably some impact from AI. That's not going to make people feel better. Didn't we do well, your unemployed, your unemployed, and your unemployed, to achieve 1.3% growth....
    Is that not what everyone praised Thatcher for ?

    Zombie companies going under is not a bad thing. The real test is whether those made unemployed can productively be re-employed.
    A continuing fall in immigration may help there.
    "Zombie companies going under" is also why our High Sts are dying, even in quite big cities like Leicester, as much of that Zombie economy is in retail, pubs etc. That is the flip-side of that creative destruction, as is secure employment for Milenials and Gen Z.

    Thatcher's "creative destruction" is responsible for the death mass employment in manufacturing in Midlands and North, and our economic dependence on financial services and consumerism, so indirectly responsible for the reactionary wave of Reform in the old "Red Wall". There's some irony in the voters of these places voting for the Thatcherite throwbacks that destroyed their communities.
    Back to Bart's (?) theory of housing. Businesses move (I've moved a few) but people don't. They are (rightly) invested in their communities, family and friends. There is also their investment (?) in bricks and mortar that becomes difficult to sell if they are in negative equity.

    My guess is that the Renters Right Act will have some effect on the ability of Renters to move to where the jobs are. Not too sure about homeowners though.
    Stamp duty is the biggest friction for homeowners, especially in the South of England and key cities.

    Where the RRA Act makes it worse, is that it makes it difficult to move temporarily for a job, especially if you then want to to rent out the house you own.
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