Betfair market rules on SKS replacement... Am I correct in understanding that the markets will only be settled when SKS is replaced? Even if the date of replacement has passed? For example 1st April 26 market will be settled on 1st April if he is replaced but not if he isn't?
Something magnificent about Kemi Badenoch's self-confidence, and her claim that the Mandelson affair is entirely down to her asking questions at PMQs. Like a toddler who thinks their plastic steering wheel is controlling the car.
Badenoch asked the question about whether Epstein was in the vetting report or not, which prompted Starmer to say “yes” and essentially was the moment that kick started this period of acute crisis in Labour, so I think she is entitled to claim some credit.
Now anyone in her position should have asked that question so it doesn’t mark her as some kind of tactical genius, but let her bank a win, the Tories don’t have much to cheer about right now.
I think the argument is that there is a difference between 'bank the win' and 'take victory laps'
Being humble isnt known for its political savvy
Last year I advised Kemi Badenoch to be more modest and self effacing.
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
Older people can remember when things were better. 20-30 years ago. When the land was calmer and happier. Before the epic levels of migration
Much of Western Europe has been economically stagnant for two decades while importing millions of people from alien cultures in a disastrous experiment gone horribly wrong
Older people are old enough to recall the days before the experiment.
Big Nige knows exactly how to massage an enlarged boomer prostate with a nicotine stained finger.
Is that Clacton?
Sun sets in the West, so no. And that doesn't look like dawn to me.
Really? I don't think I could find Clacton on a map. Something me and Nige have in common
I doubt there has been a more depressing time since WW2
We have a government in crisis led by a leader who has no future though may hang on just continuing the daily pyscho drama
We await enormous volumns of e mails and whats app messages during Mandelson's time as ambassador with unknown consquences for other labour mps and advisors and unrest with politics by the public
The real danger is the public voting for Reform or the Greens in a mass protest vote and electing extreme right or left mps wholly unsuitable for public office
More Epstein files will be realeased as we watch each breaking news fearing what next
Indeed we could see untold problems with Trump over revelations in our dealing through Mandelson
I would suggest labour need to lance the boil now and demand Starmer resigns and install a temporary leader to stabiise the party with either John Healey or Hilary Benn being a good call
Goodness knows how the bond markets will react and letting things drift is not an option
I had hopes that Starmer would do as he said before the election to promote integrity and accountability into our politics but here we are just over 18 months later with the most unpopular PM in recent hiistory
This is not about point scoring but a deep desire for labour to steady the ship for all our sakes as anything else is unthinkable
May wise minds in labour led by many of the women who are so aggrieved prevail
Good grief Big_G is your memory ok?
What about: - Rationing persisting on into the 1950s - Suez Crisis 1956 - Three-day week & power cuts 1974 - IMF bail out 1976 - Winter of Discontent 1979 - Covid crisis 2020
To name but a few?
Reflects the polling though, with older people spiralling into a deep and irrational melancholy. Lots of free time + social media is a not a good combination.
You can critise me as much as you like and disagree with whether this is the worst crisis since WW2 but what is the problem with my suggestion on how to address it ?
According to Sky journalist this morning some want Starmer to continue to May and take responsibilty for the likely polling disaster but other mps are saying they cannot allow Mandelson and Epstein to continue and need to take action
I have no problem with people disagreing but suggesting older people spiral into deep and irrational melancholy is pure 'ageism'
No, it's not. There has been a dramatic divergence in sentiment, and this is going to cause us massive issues because so much of the country's disposable income is now held by older people:
That is nothing to do with your ageism comment
Disagree by all means but do not descend into ageism
It's not ageism to point to a real difference between age groups. The data is there.
Why are older people much more negative now? Is it simply a partisan thing, where they're unhappy with a Labour government? Is it the media they're consuming?
There's genuinely something going on.
I have a sad answer
Older people can remember when things were better. 20-30 years ago. When the land was calmer and happier. Before the epic levels of migration
Much of Western Europe has been economically stagnant for two decades while importing millions of people from alien cultures in a disastrous experiment gone horribly wrong
Older people are old enough to recall the days before the experiment.
The biggest amount of non European immigration to the UK actually came under the Attlee government. The Blair government was mainly Eastern European immigration which Brexit and the Boris wave reversed to non European immigration again until Sunak and Cleverly tightened the rules
This is the most ludicrous nonsense. You surely realise this
I know you are eccentric and live in HYUFD-world but surely even there facts are facts. And what you have just said is factually and totally wrong
It was the British Nationality Act 1948 more than any other Act that set the immigration changes of the last century
This is the problem that Enoch Powell referred to in almost every interview he gave on immigration, that until recently there had been no way of distinguishing members of the Commonwealth from British people living in Britain as far as right to live in Britain was concerned. When travel to Britain en masse was nigh on impossible, there was no problem with immigration, but once air travel became commonplace, that meant tens of millions of people were entitled to come and live here, and what was once a hypothetical possibility became reality. That was why he suggested paying immigrants to return to their place of birth, he saw it as the only way of rectifying an oversight that changed the country in a way no one had thought of.
The 1962 Act tightened the rules to require work permits but yes Powell thought even that too loose
Older people can remember when things were better. 20-30 years ago. When the land was calmer and happier. Before the epic levels of migration
Much of Western Europe has been economically stagnant for two decades while importing millions of people from alien cultures in a disastrous experiment gone horribly wrong
Older people are old enough to recall the days before the experiment.
Big Nige knows exactly how to massage an enlarged boomer prostate with a nicotine stained finger.
Is that Clacton?
Sun sets in the West, so no. And that doesn't look like dawn to me.
Really? I don't think I could find Clacton on a map. Something me and Nige have in common
Yet he’s been tweeting from there this week so clearly it’s not something you have in common.
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
For someone who didn't know the threshold for the number of letters required for a vonc [less than 20 rather than 39] and has a determination to undermime Kemi we can file this as not going to happen
Given 2/3 of Tory MPs did not vote for Kemi in the final round in 2024, if the Tories are third in May they will get rid of her
Just as well for Kemi, then, that the Tories will outpoll Labour in May, at least in England.
We must hope so and I am sure Kemi believes that will be the case
Blaming Starmer for not getting Jimmy Lai released
The Pritti whose Government were in power in 2020 when he was released and did precisely Jack shit for years because they won't communicate with China.
She should have done her job at the time with Boris, Liz and Rishi.
Starmer tried, better to have tried and failed than never to have tried at all
Trumps tried no success
May be he will succeed when he goes to China
The Chinese despise Starmer's weakness. Xi didn't even show him round the Forbidden City, they got a tourist guide to do it. They don't respond to the begging bowl, they respond to credible threats to their economy - especially now. Starmer is an abysmal negotiator. The quicker he goes, the better for our standing in the world.
Who, of the runners and riders to replace him, do you think would be any better ?
I honestly cannot see anyone, but I’m open to persuasion.
It will have to be nigel. We are left with no choice but to pin our hopes on a ex-stockbroker buffoon with a good line in saloon bar demagoguery and just one decent policy: on immigration
Kemi doesn't stand a chance against Big Nige's retrograde agitprop. She's also uniquely poorly placed to win back those voters from the Fukkers that the tories need: aged 60+ racist men with shaved heads. She's got zero chance with those types by dint of being a Globalist of Colour.
Problem is which potential Tory leader is in a position to attract the 60+ racist male vote - the obvious candidate their would drool over (Penny who can hold a sword) is not an MP
A childhood friend of mine whom i last saw just after HMQs funeral and is (or was anyway) a lifelong Labour voter (his Dad was a councillor and big trade Unioinst) almost had to excuse hinself when we discussed the admiral and her sword. She has a strange effect on men of a certain age.
They say that politics is show business for ugly people, so the good-looking ones to tend to stand out!
This is very true
Katie Lam is a case in point. If you look at her objectively she is not very pretty (sorry, Ms Lam - I admire your mind!). Indeed she is quite plain
But simply by being youngissh, blonde-ish and not hideous she stands out. Penny Mordaunt is genuinely attractive, however
It's noticeable how the populist right wing Eiropean parties specialise in hot blonde women. Meloni in Italy. Marianne Le Pen in France. the AfD woman isn.t too bad, Eva Banned-from-Britain in Holland
"The Super Bowl Halftime Show is absolutely terrible, one of the worst, EVER! It makes no sense, is an affront to the Greatness of America, and doesn’t represent our standards of Success, Creativity, or Excellence. Nobody understands a word this guy is saying, and the dancing is disgusting, especially for young children that are watching from throughout the U.S.A., and all over the World," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
Of course over half of Tory MPs have front bench roles thanks to Kemis patronage so VONC passing is a tough sell
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
For someone who didn't know the threshold for the number of letters required for a vonc [less than 20 rather than 39] and has a determination to undermime Kemi we can file this as not going to happen
Given 2/3 of Tory MPs did not vote for Kemi in the final round in 2024, if the Tories are third in May they will get rid of her
Just as well for Kemi, then, that the Tories will outpoll Labour in May, at least in England.
We must hope so and I am sure Kemi believes that will be the case
Well it won't be thanks to your dial on repeat attempts to destabilise her
It will have to be nigel. We are left with no choice but to pin our hopes on a ex-stockbroker buffoon with a good line in saloon bar demagoguery and just one decent policy: on immigration
Kemi doesn't stand a chance against Big Nige's retrograde agitprop. She's also uniquely poorly placed to win back those voters from the Fukkers that the tories need: aged 60+ racist men with shaved heads. She's got zero chance with those types by dint of being a Globalist of Colour.
Problem is which potential Tory leader is in a position to attract the 60+ racist male vote - the obvious candidate their would drool over (Penny who can hold a sword) is not an MP
A childhood friend of mine whom i last saw just after HMQs funeral and is (or was anyway) a lifelong Labour voter (his Dad was a councillor and big trade Unioinst) almost had to excuse hinself when we discussed the admiral and her sword. She has a strange effect on men of a certain age.
They say that politics is show business for ugly people, so the good-looking ones to tend to stand out!
This is very true
Katie Lam is a case in point. If you look at her objectively she is not very pretty (sorry, Ms Lam - I admire your mind!). Indeed she is quite plain
But simply by being youngissh, blonde-ish and not hideous she stands out. Penny Mordaunt is genuinely attractive, however
It's noticeable how the populist right wing Eiropean parties specialise in hot blonde women. Meloni in Italy. Marianne Le Pen in France. the AfD woman isn.t too bad, Eva Banned-from-Britain in Holland
I have an underlying theory about the phenomenon
If we're all very good can we get to not hear it?
Even better, you will probably get to not read it as well
Something magnificent about Kemi Badenoch's self-confidence, and her claim that the Mandelson affair is entirely down to her asking questions at PMQs. Like a toddler who thinks their plastic steering wheel is controlling the car.
Badenoch asked the question about whether Epstein was in the vetting report or not, which prompted Starmer to say “yes” and essentially was the moment that kick started this period of acute crisis in Labour, so I think she is entitled to claim some credit.
Now anyone in her position should have asked that question so it doesn’t mark her as some kind of tactical genius, but let her bank a win, the Tories don’t have much to cheer about right now.
I think the argument is that there is a difference between 'bank the win' and 'take victory laps'
Being humble isnt known for its political savvy
Last year I advised Kemi Badenoch to be more modest and self effacing.
Blaming Starmer for not getting Jimmy Lai released
The Pritti whose Government were in power in 2020 when he was released and did precisely Jack shit for years because they won't communicate with China.
She should have done her job at the time with Boris, Liz and Rishi.
Starmer tried, better to have tried and failed than never to have tried at all
Trumps tried no success
May be he will succeed when he goes to China
The Chinese despise Starmer's weakness. Xi didn't even show him round the Forbidden City, they got a tourist guide to do it. They don't respond to the begging bowl, they respond to credible threats to their economy - especially now. Starmer is an abysmal negotiator. The quicker he goes, the better for our standing in the world.
Who, of the runners and riders to replace him, do you think would be any better ?
I honestly cannot see anyone, but I’m open to persuasion.
Konstantin Chernenko
1) won’t appoint anyone controversial as ambassador. 2) immigrant - so shoves a spike up Farages nose. 3) brings back the hard left. I mean, even actual Tankies can’t say he’s on the right. 4) previous experience in running a major country. 5) breaks through the Thanatophobic barrier 6) will be popular in Northern Ireland 7) reset relations with Russia 8) Trump might start taking his orders from the U.K. 9) won’t give away any bits of the UK 10) won’t have any connection with Epstein.
Betfair market rules on SKS replacement... Am I correct in understanding that the markets will only be settled when SKS is replaced? Even if the date of replacement has passed? For example 1st April 26 market will be settled on 1st April if he is replaced but not if he isn't?
I’m sure have the battle with Betfair markets is accurately understand the markets actual t&cs in the way you don’t need to worry with Ladbrokes and others
To add my thoughts on the grumpy oldies and near oldies.
Overheard some blokes in their 50s recently saying how they thought in the early 90s that they expected to have a 'great world' but that its all been ruined by 'him in America', 'him in Russia', 'him in China', 'him in Iran' etc.
Now if you look at their ages:
Trump, born 1946 Putin, born 1952 Xi, born 1953 Khamenei, born 1939
And you can add others according to your views:
Netanyahu, Farage, Starmer or even back to the likes of Fred Goodwin and Adam Applegarth.
The boomers ruined the future we were supposed to have and which is now the present we don't want.
Older people can remember when things were better. 20-30 years ago. When the land was calmer and happier. Before the epic levels of migration
Much of Western Europe has been economically stagnant for two decades while importing millions of people from alien cultures in a disastrous experiment gone horribly wrong
Older people are old enough to recall the days before the experiment.
Big Nige knows exactly how to massage an enlarged boomer prostate with a nicotine stained finger.
Is that Clacton?
It's Master Samwise staring out to sea towards The Undying Lands, yearning for Frodo and Bilbo. They ain't coming back, Nige.
To add my thoughts on the grumpy oldies and near oldies.
Overheard some blokes in their 50s recently saying how they thought in the early 90s that they expected to have a 'great world' but that its all been ruined by 'him in America', 'him in Russia', 'him in China', 'him in Iran' etc.
Now if you look at their ages:
Trump, born 1946 Putin, born 1952 Xi, born 1953 Khamenei, born 1939
And you can add others according to your views:
Netanyahu, Farage, Starmer or even back to the likes of Fred Goodwin and Adam Applegarth.
The boomers ruined the future we were supposed to have and which is now the present we don't want.
Generation X on standby to put it all back together again. We exist to purify the boomer effluent
Older people can remember when things were better. 20-30 years ago. When the land was calmer and happier. Before the epic levels of migration
Much of Western Europe has been economically stagnant for two decades while importing millions of people from alien cultures in a disastrous experiment gone horribly wrong
Older people are old enough to recall the days before the experiment.
Big Nige knows exactly how to massage an enlarged boomer prostate with a nicotine stained finger.
Is that Clacton?
Sun sets in the West, so no. And that doesn't look like dawn to me.
Really? I don't think I could find Clacton on a map. Something me and Nige have in common
Another 1,250 Russian troops not reporting for duty today.
The total will go through 1.25 million this week. Doesn't seem that long since we breached 1 million.
For comparison, total British Army deaths (including Commonwealth forces) were 564,000 on the Western Front in WW1.
The official population in 1918 in the UK was 43.5m. It may have been a little higher. The population of Russia in 2025 was 144m so it is 3.3 times as great. Dividing that figure of 1.25m by that produces an equivalent figure of around 379k. Quite a bit lower but still massive. The damage Putin has done to Russia may prove irreparable.
Putin’s war is the best argument for democracy and the rule of law that I can remember these last 20 years. At a time when western democracies are in pathetic decline and big autocracies - China - seem to thrive and grow, we can remind ourselves that if Russia had stayed democratic and adhered to its own constitution then Putin would have retired a decade ago and 2 million people would not have died on the steppes of Ukraine
The SMO isn't a VVP exclusive. After the Odessa Trade Union Hall business and similar events there was immense pressure to Do Something. Remember, the SMO wasn't Plan А (I doubt the way things have played out are even Plans Б, В or Г) and the impetus would have been no different for any other Russian leader, democratic or not. Although the trajectory of events may not have been exactly the same.
All the more reason that the long term goal of the western European nations should be the break up of the Russian state. Having an expansionist continental power on your border that never seems to give up on taking more & more land is not a recipe for safety & stability in the long term.
Unfortunately Russia can see that their own current & past actions drive western Europe to this logical conclusion & therefore concludes that they must create a buffer zone of client nations between them & western Europe. Yet more expansion of the continental empire is perceived as the only option.
These two lines of thought reinforce each other: The empire that feels threatened even when it isn’t must expand & thus creates the very threat it intends to neutralise.
I doubt there has been a more depressing time since WW2
We have a government in crisis led by a leader who has no future though may hang on just continuing the daily pyscho drama
We await enormous volumns of e mails and whats app messages during Mandelson's time as ambassador with unknown consquences for other labour mps and advisors and unrest with politics by the public
The real danger is the public voting for Reform or the Greens in a mass protest vote and electing extreme right or left mps wholly unsuitable for public office
More Epstein files will be realeased as we watch each breaking news fearing what next
Indeed we could see untold problems with Trump over revelations in our dealing through Mandelson
I would suggest labour need to lance the boil now and demand Starmer resigns and install a temporary leader to stabiise the party with either John Healey or Hilary Benn being a good call
Goodness knows how the bond markets will react and letting things drift is not an option
I had hopes that Starmer would do as he said before the election to promote integrity and accountability into our politics but here we are just over 18 months later with the most unpopular PM in recent hiistory
This is not about point scoring but a deep desire for labour to steady the ship for all our sakes as anything else is unthinkable
May wise minds in labour led by many of the women who are so aggrieved prevail
Good grief Big_G is your memory ok?
What about: - Rationing persisting on into the 1950s - Suez Crisis 1956 - Three-day week & power cuts 1974 - IMF bail out 1976 - Winter of Discontent 1979 - Covid crisis 2020
To name but a few?
Reflects the polling though, with older people spiralling into a deep and irrational melancholy. Lots of free time + social media is a not a good combination.
You can critise me as much as you like and disagree with whether this is the worst crisis since WW2 but what is the problem with my suggestion on how to address it ?
According to Sky journalist this morning some want Starmer to continue to May and take responsibilty for the likely polling disaster but other mps are saying they cannot allow Mandelson and Epstein to continue and need to take action
I have no problem with people disagreing but suggesting older people spiral into deep and irrational melancholy is pure 'ageism'
No, it's not. There has been a dramatic divergence in sentiment, and this is going to cause us massive issues because so much of the country's disposable income is now held by older people:
That is nothing to do with your ageism comment
Disagree by all means but do not descend into ageism
It's not ageism to point to a real difference between age groups. The data is there.
Why are older people much more negative now? Is it simply a partisan thing, where they're unhappy with a Labour government? Is it the media they're consuming?
There's genuinely something going on.
I have a sad answer
Older people can remember when things were better. 20-30 years ago. When the land was calmer and happier. Before the epic levels of migration
Much of Western Europe has been economically stagnant for two decades while importing millions of people from alien cultures in a disastrous experiment gone horribly wrong
Older people are old enough to recall the days before the experiment.
The biggest amount of non European immigration to the UK actually came under the Attlee government. The Blair government was mainly Eastern European immigration which Brexit and the Boris wave reversed to non European immigration again until Sunak and Cleverly tightened the rules
This is the most ludicrous nonsense. You surely realise this
I know you are eccentric and live in HYUFD-world but surely even there facts are facts. And what you have just said is factually and totally wrong
It was the British Nationality Act 1948 more than any other Act that set the immigration changes of the last century
This is the problem that Enoch Powell referred to in almost every interview he gave on immigration, that until recently there had been no way of distinguishing members of the Commonwealth from British people living in Britain as far as right to live in Britain was concerned. When travel to Britain en masse was nigh on impossible, there was no problem with immigration, but once air travel became commonplace, that meant tens of millions of people were entitled to come and live here, and what was once a hypothetical possibility became reality. That was why he suggested paying immigrants to return to their place of birth, he saw it as the only way of rectifying an oversight that changed the country in a way no one had thought of.
The 1962 Act tightened the rules to require work permits but yes Powell thought even that too loose
I should have written
"...once air travel became commonplace, it meant tens of millions of people who were theoretically entitled to come and live here actually could, and what was hypothetical became reality."
I doubt there has been a more depressing time since WW2
We have a government in crisis led by a leader who has no future though may hang on just continuing the daily pyscho drama
We await enormous volumns of e mails and whats app messages during Mandelson's time as ambassador with unknown consquences for other labour mps and advisors and unrest with politics by the public
The real danger is the public voting for Reform or the Greens in a mass protest vote and electing extreme right or left mps wholly unsuitable for public office
More Epstein files will be realeased as we watch each breaking news fearing what next
Indeed we could see untold problems with Trump over revelations in our dealing through Mandelson
I would suggest labour need to lance the boil now and demand Starmer resigns and install a temporary leader to stabiise the party with either John Healey or Hilary Benn being a good call
Goodness knows how the bond markets will react and letting things drift is not an option
I had hopes that Starmer would do as he said before the election to promote integrity and accountability into our politics but here we are just over 18 months later with the most unpopular PM in recent hiistory
This is not about point scoring but a deep desire for labour to steady the ship for all our sakes as anything else is unthinkable
May wise minds in labour led by many of the women who are so aggrieved prevail
Good grief Big_G is your memory ok?
What about: - Rationing persisting on into the 1950s - Suez Crisis 1956 - Three-day week & power cuts 1974 - IMF bail out 1976 - Winter of Discontent 1979 - Covid crisis 2020
To name but a few?
Reflects the polling though, with older people spiralling into a deep and irrational melancholy. Lots of free time + social media is a not a good combination.
You can critise me as much as you like and disagree with whether this is the worst crisis since WW2 but what is the problem with my suggestion on how to address it ?
According to Sky journalist this morning some want Starmer to continue to May and take responsibilty for the likely polling disaster but other mps are saying they cannot allow Mandelson and Epstein to continue and need to take action
I have no problem with people disagreing but suggesting older people spiral into deep and irrational melancholy is pure 'ageism'
No, it's not. There has been a dramatic divergence in sentiment, and this is going to cause us massive issues because so much of the country's disposable income is now held by older people:
That is nothing to do with your ageism comment
Disagree by all means but do not descend into ageism
It's not ageism to point to a real difference between age groups. The data is there.
Why are older people much more negative now? Is it simply a partisan thing, where they're unhappy with a Labour government? Is it the media they're consuming?
There's genuinely something going on.
I have a sad answer
Older people can remember when things were better. 20-30 years ago. When the land was calmer and happier. Before the epic levels of migration
Much of Western Europe has been economically stagnant for two decades while importing millions of people from alien cultures in a disastrous experiment gone horribly wrong
Older people are old enough to recall the days before the experiment.
The biggest amount of non European immigration to the UK actually came under the Attlee government. The Blair government was mainly Eastern European immigration which Brexit and the Boris wave reversed to non European immigration again until Sunak and Cleverly tightened the rules
This is the most ludicrous nonsense. You surely realise this
I know you are eccentric and live in HYUFD-world but surely even there facts are facts. And what you have just said is factually and totally wrong
It was the British Nationality Act 1948 more than any other Act that set the immigration changes of the last century
This is the problem that Enoch Powell referred to in almost every interview he gave on immigration, that until recently there had been no way of distinguishing members of the Commonwealth from British people living in Britain as far as right to live in Britain was concerned. When travel to Britain en masse was nigh on impossible, there was no problem with immigration, but once air travel became commonplace, that meant tens of millions of people were entitled to come and live here, and what was once a hypothetical possibility became reality. That was why he suggested paying immigrants to return to their place of birth, he saw it as the only way of rectifying an oversight that changed the country in a way no one had thought of.
The 1962 Act tightened the rules to require work permits but yes Powell thought even that too loose
IIRC most Third World or Commonwealth immigrants arrived by sea. The one major airlift was the Ugandan Asians in 1972.
Another 1,250 Russian troops not reporting for duty today.
The total will go through 1.25 million this week. Doesn't seem that long since we breached 1 million.
For comparison, total British Army deaths (including Commonwealth forces) were 564,000 on the Western Front in WW1.
The official population in 1918 in the UK was 43.5m. It may have been a little higher. The population of Russia in 2025 was 144m so it is 3.3 times as great. Dividing that figure of 1.25m by that produces an equivalent figure of around 379k. Quite a bit lower but still massive. The damage Putin has done to Russia may prove irreparable.
Putin’s war is the best argument for democracy and the rule of law that I can remember these last 20 years. At a time when western democracies are in pathetic decline and big autocracies - China - seem to thrive and grow, we can remind ourselves that if Russia had stayed democratic and adhered to its own constitution then Putin would have retired a decade ago and 2 million people would not have died on the steppes of Ukraine
The SMO isn't a VVP exclusive. After the Odessa Trade Union Hall business and similar events there was immense pressure to Do Something. Remember, the SMO wasn't Plan А (I doubt the way things have played out are even Plans Б, В or Г) and the impetus would have been no different for any other Russian leader, democratic or not. Although the trajectory of events may not have been exactly the same.
All the more reason that the long term goal of the western European nations should be the break up of the Russian state. Having an expansionist continental power on your border that never seems to give up on taking more & more land is not a recipe for safety & stability in the long term.
Unfortunately Russia can see that their own current & past actions drive western Europe to this logical conclusion & therefore concludes that they must create a buffer zone of client nations between them & western Europe. Yet more expansion of the continental empire is perceived as the only option.
These two lines of thought reinforce each other: The empire that feels threatened even when it isn’t must expand & thus creates the very threat it intends to neutralise.
Russia is vast. If it wants buffers, it has plenty of undisputed Russian land to create its own.
Older people can remember when things were better. 20-30 years ago. When the land was calmer and happier. Before the epic levels of migration
Much of Western Europe has been economically stagnant for two decades while importing millions of people from alien cultures in a disastrous experiment gone horribly wrong
Older people are old enough to recall the days before the experiment.
Big Nige knows exactly how to massage an enlarged boomer prostate with a nicotine stained finger.
Is that Clacton?
Sun sets in the West, so no. And that doesn't look like dawn to me.
Really? I don't think I could find Clacton on a map. Something me and Nige have in common
Another 1,250 Russian troops not reporting for duty today.
The total will go through 1.25 million this week. Doesn't seem that long since we breached 1 million.
For comparison, total British Army deaths (including Commonwealth forces) were 564,000 on the Western Front in WW1.
The official population in 1918 in the UK was 43.5m. It may have been a little higher. The population of Russia in 2025 was 144m so it is 3.3 times as great. Dividing that figure of 1.25m by that produces an equivalent figure of around 379k. Quite a bit lower but still massive. The damage Putin has done to Russia may prove irreparable.
Putin’s war is the best argument for democracy and the rule of law that I can remember these last 20 years. At a time when western democracies are in pathetic decline and big autocracies - China - seem to thrive and grow, we can remind ourselves that if Russia had stayed democratic and adhered to its own constitution then Putin would have retired a decade ago and 2 million people would not have died on the steppes of Ukraine
The SMO isn't a VVP exclusive. After the Odessa Trade Union Hall business and similar events there was immense pressure to Do Something. Remember, the SMO wasn't Plan А (I doubt the way things have played out are even Plans Б, В or Г) and the impetus would have been no different for any other Russian leader, democratic or not. Although the trajectory of events may not have been exactly the same.
All the more reason that the long term goal of the western European nations should be the break up of the Russian state. Having an expansionist continental power on your border that never seems to give up on taking more & more land is not a recipe for safety & stability in the long term.
Unfortunately Russia can see that their own current & past actions drive western Europe to this logical conclusion & therefore concludes that they must create a buffer zone of client nations between them & western Europe. Yet more expansion of the continental empire is perceived as the only option.
These two lines of thought reinforce each other: The empire that feels threatened even when it isn’t must expand & thus creates the very threat it intends to neutralise.
Russia is vast. If it wants buffers, it has plenty of undisputed Russian land to create its own.
Quite. The problem is that continental empires don’t see things that way.
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
Katie Lam? I’d stick with Kemi until at least after the next GE
The point is that things don’t turn around overnight after heavy defeats. If the polls are to be believed, voters are choosing Reform as they hate both of the established parties of government. There’s little any Conservative leader could have done to deal with that surge after being been kicked out of office. The best approach is to rebuild slowly and surely rather than be guided by opinion polls. It is a rebuild, and these things take time. The public are getting to know her and they seem to be willing to give her a chance. If so, the party’s VI polling will improve in time.
That is my position
The country are not listening to the conservatives, though Kemi has raised her profile and certainly cornered Starmer at last week's PMQs
The party is lagging behind her approval ratings as she beats Farage and of course Starmer
This is a 3 year project and there is no appetite in her mps to remove her, no matter how @HYUFD drones on
Cleverly, even if he wanted it, would not move the dial and another conservative psysco drama hands Farage the next election
Your Kemi obsession is clouding your judgement. No one is considering her apart from a few Tory veterans. At the moment I'd position her a slightly less interesting Ed Davey. She's losing her own MPs at a rate of knotts and her judgement in so far as anyone notices is non existent as the far more talented Ruth Davidson would attest
Older people can remember when things were better. 20-30 years ago. When the land was calmer and happier. Before the epic levels of migration
Much of Western Europe has been economically stagnant for two decades while importing millions of people from alien cultures in a disastrous experiment gone horribly wrong
Older people are old enough to recall the days before the experiment.
Big Nige knows exactly how to massage an enlarged boomer prostate with a nicotine stained finger.
Is that Clacton?
Sun sets in the West, so no. And that doesn't look like dawn to me.
Really? I don't think I could find Clacton on a map. Something me and Nige have in common
@pippacrerar.bsky.social · now EXCL: Tim Allan, Keir Starmer’s director of communications, steps down from Downing Street role.
“I have decided to stand down to allow a new No 10 team to be built. I wish the PM and his team every success,” he says.
Comms have been by far the worst part of this government. Not saying the rest is great, patchy at best, but comms has been amongst the worst ever, only Truss compares.
The last time a British prime minister won a majority at a general election, and then went into the next general election still serving as prime minister was in 2001. A quarter of a century ago.
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
My opinion, FWIW, is that the Tories really needed a leader who looked "prime ministerial". That would help differentiate them from Reform, as few people relish the idea of Nige in No 10 (including quite possibly Nige himself if he has any self-awareness). The obvious choice was Cleverly which is why he got the backing of Tory MPs until they screwed up the leadership election by accidentally excluding him.
However, we are where we are, Kemi has shown some capacity for improvement and learning on the job, and the downside of yet another leadership election would likely outweigh any possible benefits. So Kemi it is. I really doubt there will be much appetite to remover her, however bad May turns out, and it's certainly not looking good. Her polling is improving but the Tory brand remains stuck in the mire, and the only solution to that is the passage of time. Keep grinning and bearing it.
A person reviewed a clause that they mistakenly thought was written by a person (despite being told otherwise) and declared it was fine (albeit with some unnecessary filler). Upon being told again it was actually written by AI, it suddenly needed amendment.
To add my thoughts on the grumpy oldies and near oldies.
Overheard some blokes in their 50s recently saying how they thought in the early 90s that they expected to have a 'great world' but that its all been ruined by 'him in America', 'him in Russia', 'him in China', 'him in Iran' etc.
Now if you look at their ages:
Trump, born 1946 Putin, born 1952 Xi, born 1953 Khamenei, born 1939
And you can add others according to your views:
Netanyahu, Farage, Starmer or even back to the likes of Fred Goodwin and Adam Applegarth.
The boomers ruined the future we were supposed to have and which is now the present we don't want.
Generation X on standby to put it all back together again. We exist to purify the boomer effluent
The early 90s and the decade or so after were the 'End of History' era. Berlin Wall down, communism defeated at least in Europe, global trade booming, rules based order, Clinton in the WH etc etc.
Older people can remember when things were better. 20-30 years ago. When the land was calmer and happier. Before the epic levels of migration
Much of Western Europe has been economically stagnant for two decades while importing millions of people from alien cultures in a disastrous experiment gone horribly wrong
Older people are old enough to recall the days before the experiment.
Big Nige knows exactly how to massage an enlarged boomer prostate with a nicotine stained finger.
Is that Clacton?
Sun sets in the West, so no. And that doesn't look like dawn to me.
Really? I don't think I could find Clacton on a map. Something me and Nige have in common
Head to Frinton and walk south west.
Train from Liverpool Street.
I'm not sure he does trains.
Then drive up the A12 (probably very slowly in some places) and turn right (suitable) just North of Colchester.
I doubt there has been a more depressing time since WW2
We have a government in crisis led by a leader who has no future though may hang on just continuing the daily pyscho drama
We await enormous volumns of e mails and whats app messages during Mandelson's time as ambassador with unknown consquences for other labour mps and advisors and unrest with politics by the public
The real danger is the public voting for Reform or the Greens in a mass protest vote and electing extreme right or left mps wholly unsuitable for public office
More Epstein files will be realeased as we watch each breaking news fearing what next
Indeed we could see untold problems with Trump over revelations in our dealing through Mandelson
I would suggest labour need to lance the boil now and demand Starmer resigns and install a temporary leader to stabiise the party with either John Healey or Hilary Benn being a good call
Goodness knows how the bond markets will react and letting things drift is not an option
I had hopes that Starmer would do as he said before the election to promote integrity and accountability into our politics but here we are just over 18 months later with the most unpopular PM in recent hiistory
This is not about point scoring but a deep desire for labour to steady the ship for all our sakes as anything else is unthinkable
May wise minds in labour led by many of the women who are so aggrieved prevail
Good grief Big_G is your memory ok?
What about: - Rationing persisting on into the 1950s - Suez Crisis 1956 - Three-day week & power cuts 1974 - IMF bail out 1976 - Winter of Discontent 1979 - Covid crisis 2020
To name but a few?
Reflects the polling though, with older people spiralling into a deep and irrational melancholy. Lots of free time + social media is a not a good combination.
You can critise me as much as you like and disagree with whether this is the worst crisis since WW2 but what is the problem with my suggestion on how to address it ?
According to Sky journalist this morning some want Starmer to continue to May and take responsibilty for the likely polling disaster but other mps are saying they cannot allow Mandelson and Epstein to continue and need to take action
I have no problem with people disagreing but suggesting older people spiral into deep and irrational melancholy is pure 'ageism'
No, it's not. There has been a dramatic divergence in sentiment, and this is going to cause us massive issues because so much of the country's disposable income is now held by older people:
That is nothing to do with your ageism comment
Disagree by all means but do not descend into ageism
It's not ageism to point to a real difference between age groups. The data is there.
Why are older people much more negative now? Is it simply a partisan thing, where they're unhappy with a Labour government? Is it the media they're consuming?
There's genuinely something going on.
I have a sad answer
Older people can remember when things were better. 20-30 years ago. When the land was calmer and happier. Before the epic levels of migration
Much of Western Europe has been economically stagnant for two decades while importing millions of people from alien cultures in a disastrous experiment gone horribly wrong
Older people are old enough to recall the days before the experiment.
The biggest amount of non European immigration to the UK actually came under the Attlee government. The Blair government was mainly Eastern European immigration which Brexit and the Boris wave reversed to non European immigration again until Sunak and Cleverly tightened the rules
This is the most ludicrous nonsense. You surely realise this
I know you are eccentric and live in HYUFD-world but surely even there facts are facts. And what you have just said is factually and totally wrong
It was the British Nationality Act 1948 more than any other Act that set the immigration changes of the last century
This is the problem that Enoch Powell referred to in almost every interview he gave on immigration, that until recently there had been no way of distinguishing members of the Commonwealth from British people living in Britain as far as right to live in Britain was concerned. When travel to Britain en masse was nigh on impossible, there was no problem with immigration, but once air travel became commonplace, that meant tens of millions of people were entitled to come and live here, and what was once a hypothetical possibility became reality. That was why he suggested paying immigrants to return to their place of birth, he saw it as the only way of rectifying an oversight that changed the country in a way no one had thought of.
The 1962 Act tightened the rules to require work permits but yes Powell thought even that too loose
The same Enoch Powell who went round the Caribbean encouraging people to come and work in the UK...
Tim Allan going is a big surprise… not just a director of comms but a significant link back to the Tony Blair Number 10, with some old school strategic nous, connections with business etc… blimey.
@pippacrerar.bsky.social · now EXCL: Tim Allan, Keir Starmer’s director of communications, steps down from Downing Street role.
“I have decided to stand down to allow a new No 10 team to be built. I wish the PM and his team every success,” he says.
Comms have been by far the worst part of this government. Not saying the rest is great, patchy at best, but comms has been amongst the worst ever, only Truss compares.
A person reviewed a clause that they mistakenly thought was written by a person (despite being told otherwise) and declared it was fine (albeit with some unnecessary filler). Upon being told again it was actually written by AI, it suddenly needed amendment.
We’re cooked
It ceased to be fine because it became something the general public might produce and thus became a threat to their job.
A person reviewed a clause that they mistakenly thought was written by a person (despite being told otherwise) and declared it was fine (albeit with some unnecessary filler). Upon being told again it was actually written by AI, it suddenly needed amendment.
We’re cooked
Is Legal AI still writing totally fake case law and asserting the fake cases to be real?
There’s probably room for humans in the loop for a while longer…
I doubt there has been a more depressing time since WW2
We have a government in crisis led by a leader who has no future though may hang on just continuing the daily pyscho drama
We await enormous volumns of e mails and whats app messages during Mandelson's time as ambassador with unknown consquences for other labour mps and advisors and unrest with politics by the public
The real danger is the public voting for Reform or the Greens in a mass protest vote and electing extreme right or left mps wholly unsuitable for public office
More Epstein files will be realeased as we watch each breaking news fearing what next
Indeed we could see untold problems with Trump over revelations in our dealing through Mandelson
I would suggest labour need to lance the boil now and demand Starmer resigns and install a temporary leader to stabiise the party with either John Healey or Hilary Benn being a good call
Goodness knows how the bond markets will react and letting things drift is not an option
I had hopes that Starmer would do as he said before the election to promote integrity and accountability into our politics but here we are just over 18 months later with the most unpopular PM in recent hiistory
This is not about point scoring but a deep desire for labour to steady the ship for all our sakes as anything else is unthinkable
May wise minds in labour led by many of the women who are so aggrieved prevail
Good grief Big_G is your memory ok?
What about: - Rationing persisting on into the 1950s - Suez Crisis 1956 - Three-day week & power cuts 1974 - IMF bail out 1976 - Winter of Discontent 1979 - Covid crisis 2020
To name but a few?
Reflects the polling though, with older people spiralling into a deep and irrational melancholy. Lots of free time + social media is a not a good combination.
You can critise me as much as you like and disagree with whether this is the worst crisis since WW2 but what is the problem with my suggestion on how to address it ?
According to Sky journalist this morning some want Starmer to continue to May and take responsibilty for the likely polling disaster but other mps are saying they cannot allow Mandelson and Epstein to continue and need to take action
I have no problem with people disagreing but suggesting older people spiral into deep and irrational melancholy is pure 'ageism'
No, it's not. There has been a dramatic divergence in sentiment, and this is going to cause us massive issues because so much of the country's disposable income is now held by older people:
That is nothing to do with your ageism comment
Disagree by all means but do not descend into ageism
It's not ageism to point to a real difference between age groups. The data is there.
Why are older people much more negative now? Is it simply a partisan thing, where they're unhappy with a Labour government? Is it the media they're consuming?
There's genuinely something going on.
I have a sad answer
Older people can remember when things were better. 20-30 years ago. When the land was calmer and happier. Before the epic levels of migration
Much of Western Europe has been economically stagnant for two decades while importing millions of people from alien cultures in a disastrous experiment gone horribly wrong
Older people are old enough to recall the days before the experiment.
The biggest amount of non European immigration to the UK actually came under the Attlee government. The Blair government was mainly Eastern European immigration which Brexit and the Boris wave reversed to non European immigration again until Sunak and Cleverly tightened the rules
This is the most ludicrous nonsense. You surely realise this
I know you are eccentric and live in HYUFD-world but surely even there facts are facts. And what you have just said is factually and totally wrong
It was the British Nationality Act 1948 more than any other Act that set the immigration changes of the last century
This is the problem that Enoch Powell referred to in almost every interview he gave on immigration, that until recently there had been no way of distinguishing members of the Commonwealth from British people living in Britain as far as right to live in Britain was concerned. When travel to Britain en masse was nigh on impossible, there was no problem with immigration, but once air travel became commonplace, that meant tens of millions of people were entitled to come and live here, and what was once a hypothetical possibility became reality. That was why he suggested paying immigrants to return to their place of birth, he saw it as the only way of rectifying an oversight that changed the country in a way no one had thought of.
The 1962 Act tightened the rules to require work permits but yes Powell thought even that too loose
The same Enoch Powell who went round the Caribbean encouraging people to come and work in the UK...
If you ever get the chance to see/hear Vassily Petrenko conduct Shostakovich's Tenth Symphony, drop everything and go.
Last night he (and his orchestra - the RPO) blew the roof off the GlassHouse in Gateshead.
Just extraordinary. Never heard classical music like it. Infinitely more barbaric and intense than the Leningrad symphony. Stalin should have been proud to have inspired it, sort of.
A person reviewed a clause that they mistakenly thought was written by a person (despite being told otherwise) and declared it was fine (albeit with some unnecessary filler). Upon being told again it was actually written by AI, it suddenly needed amendment.
We’re cooked
It ceased to be fine because it became something the general public might produce and thus became a threat to their job.
Its starting to collapse. Why has the comms chief suddenly gone less than 24 hours after the CoS? He has nothing to do with Mandygate Today might get more interesting
To add my thoughts on the grumpy oldies and near oldies.
Overheard some blokes in their 50s recently saying how they thought in the early 90s that they expected to have a 'great world' but that its all been ruined by 'him in America', 'him in Russia', 'him in China', 'him in Iran' etc.
Now if you look at their ages:
Trump, born 1946 Putin, born 1952 Xi, born 1953 Khamenei, born 1939
And you can add others according to your views:
Netanyahu, Farage, Starmer or even back to the likes of Fred Goodwin and Adam Applegarth.
The boomers ruined the future we were supposed to have and which is now the present we don't want.
Generation X on standby to put it all back together again. We exist to purify the boomer effluent
The early 90s and the decade or so after were the 'End of History' era. Berlin Wall down, communism defeated at least in Europe, global trade booming, rules based order, Clinton in the WH etc etc.
Then...
That’s a good point. Between the fall of the Berlin Wall and 9/11.
That I was aged between 12 and 24 during that time is totally irrelevant.
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
Katie Lam? I’d stick with Kemi until at least after the next GE
The point is that things don’t turn around overnight after heavy defeats. If the polls are to be believed, voters are choosing Reform as they hate both of the established parties of government. There’s little any Conservative leader could have done to deal with that surge after being been kicked out of office. The best approach is to rebuild slowly and surely rather than be guided by opinion polls. It is a rebuild, and these things take time. The public are getting to know her and they seem to be willing to give her a chance. If so, the party’s VI polling will improve in time.
That is my position
The country are not listening to the conservatives, though Kemi has raised her profile and certainly cornered Starmer at last week's PMQs
The party is lagging behind her approval ratings as she beats Farage and of course Starmer
This is a 3 year project and there is no appetite in her mps to remove her, no matter how @HYUFD drones on
Cleverly, even if he wanted it, would not move the dial and another conservative psysco drama hands Farage the next election
Your Kemi obsession is clouding your judgement. No one is considering her apart from a few Tory veterans. At the moment I'd position her a slightly less interesting Ed Davey. She's losing her own MPs at a rate of knotts and her judgement in so far as anyone notices is non existent as the far more talented Ruth Davidson would attest
She has lost the ones she needed to, and to be frank you need her to succeed if you want Farage beaten as I do
A person reviewed a clause that they mistakenly thought was written by a person (despite being told otherwise) and declared it was fine (albeit with some unnecessary filler). Upon being told again it was actually written by AI, it suddenly needed amendment.
We’re cooked
Is Legal AI still writing totally fake case law and asserting the fake cases to be real?
There’s probably room for humans in the loop for a while longer…
No case law references required in non-contentious legal drafting, so no.
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
They are not going to VONC Kemi and have no idea who might replace her.
"The Super Bowl Halftime Show is absolutely terrible, one of the worst, EVER! It makes no sense, is an affront to the Greatness of America, and doesn’t represent our standards of Success, Creativity, or Excellence. Nobody understands a word this guy is saying, and the dancing is disgusting, especially for young children that are watching from throughout the U.S.A., and all over the World," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Is the King in London yoday? And have the Labour Party got stingers to stop any rogue motorcade? Tee hee
According to 'royal.uk' appointing a new Prime Minister is something that Counsellors of State can't do on the King's behalf. It doesn't say anything about accepting notice that the PM intends to resign in the near future.
@Peston Tim Allan has stepped down as Starmer’s director of comms after just a few months.
He rated McSweeney and had been close to Mandelson (because of their New Labour and Blair origins), though it was him who told a furious Mandelson that the PM had sacked him.
There will inevitably be speculation that Mandelson sent Allan messages while ambassador that would embarrass the government and will have to be released following the parliamentary vote to publish all such communication.
Allan brought order to Downing St comms in hugely challenging circumstances- he managed crisis after crisis, including the Rayner resignation - so it is another big job for Starmer to fill.
Arguably Starmer has now lost his two most important aides in 24 hours. This is quite the crisis.
As I've posted before we've a Council by-election early next month, Candidates have just been announced, and for the first time for ages we've a LibDem. Interestingly all of them, except Labour, 'live in Braintree District'. The Labour candidate lives in the main community in the ward. The Reform lad posted a picture of his canvassing team on Facebook; all of them, except him, seemed to be elderly men with very short-haircuts!
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
My opinion, FWIW, is that the Tories really needed a leader who looked "prime ministerial". That would help differentiate them from Reform, as few people relish the idea of Nige in No 10 (including quite possibly Nige himself if he has any self-awareness). The obvious choice was Cleverly which is why he got the backing of Tory MPs until they screwed up the leadership election by accidentally excluding him.
However, we are where we are, Kemi has shown some capacity for improvement and learning on the job, and the downside of yet another leadership election would likely outweigh any possible benefits. So Kemi it is. I really doubt there will be much appetite to remover her, however bad May turns out, and it's certainly not looking good. Her polling is improving but the Tory brand remains stuck in the mire, and the only solution to that is the passage of time. Keep grinning and bearing it.
Tory MPs will but if the Tories are 3rd in May most of them will be losing their seats anyway, even most tactical anti Reform votes would go to Labour not Tory candidates, so they would have no choice but to gamble and would remove Kemi and replace her with Cleverly.
As I said May is make or break for Kemi, the Tories have to get 2nd or she is gone
Starmer needs to resign, not only because he cannot blame his advisors when he made the decisions, but also I am sure his wife is concerned for his well being
I know it is different but if Jill Biden had persuaded Joe to stand down we almost certainly would not have had Trump
Starmer no doubt means well but he is not a politician and was more suited to Attorney General
If he does the right thing, I and no doubt the country, will wish him well
A significant boost for Starmer from his China trip.
The puppet HK Government, no doubt under instruction from Beijing has finally loosed Visa Regulations.
This allows around 26,000 HK citizens who were under 18 in 1999 to have access to Visas to leave using their British passports.
Thousands of families finally reunited.
It's good to talk
We'll done SKS
How's Jimmy Lai doing?
His been imprisoned for 20 years
It's just a shame that for the first 4 years of his internment in 2020 that the British Government under Boris, Truss and Sunak led by the China haters Pritti, IDS and Kearns refused to deal directly with Beijing.
Clearly one visit not enough after that diplomatic Tory slur to release Lai.
At least thousands of families with British roots will benefit from a British PM with the balls and backbone to reopen diplomatic channels
As for Jimmy Lai, he knew the risks, he made his choices.
@Peston Tim Allan has stepped down as Starmer’s director of comms after just a few months.
He rated McSweeney and had been close to Mandelson (because of their New Labour and Blair origins), though it was him who told a furious Mandelson that the PM had sacked him.
There will inevitably be speculation that Mandelson sent Allan messages while ambassador that would embarrass the government and will have to be released following the parliamentary vote to publish all such communication.
Allan brought order to Downing St comms in hugely challenging circumstances- he managed crisis after crisis, including the Rayner resignation - so it is another big job for Starmer to fill.
Arguably Starmer has now lost his two most important aides in 24 hours. This is quite the crisis.
They might be important but they have been crap. Keeping them would lead to more of the same, so which path is the bigger crisis?
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
They are not going to VONC Kemi and have no idea who might replace her.
The Tories are not South Park:
"Oh my God, they killed Kemi. The bastards!"
If the Tories are third in May the 2/3 of Tory MPs who did not vote for Kemi in 2024 will vote of no confidence her
As I've posted before we've a Council by-election early next month, Candidates have just been announced, and for the first time for ages we've a LibDem. Interestingly all of them, except Labour, 'live in Braintree District'. The Labour candidate lives in the main community in the ward. The Reform lad posted a picture of his canvassing team on Facebook; all of them, except him, seemed to be elderly men with very short-haircuts!
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
My opinion, FWIW, is that the Tories really needed a leader who looked "prime ministerial". That would help differentiate them from Reform, as few people relish the idea of Nige in No 10 (including quite possibly Nige himself if he has any self-awareness). The obvious choice was Cleverly which is why he got the backing of Tory MPs until they screwed up the leadership election by accidentally excluding him.
However, we are where we are, Kemi has shown some capacity for improvement and learning on the job, and the downside of yet another leadership election would likely outweigh any possible benefits. So Kemi it is. I really doubt there will be much appetite to remover her, however bad May turns out, and it's certainly not looking good. Her polling is improving but the Tory brand remains stuck in the mire, and the only solution to that is the passage of time. Keep grinning and bearing it.
Tory MPs will but if the Tories are 3rd in May most of them will be losing their seats anyway, even most tactical anti Reform votes would go to Labour not Tory candidates, so they would have no choice but to gamble and would remove Kemi and replace her with Cleverly.
As I said May is make or break for Kemi, the Tories have to get 2nd or she is gone
Can I just say in the kindest way possible continual repetitive posts become boring and lose credibility
You have made your point and maybe time to move on, please
It's hard to see how Starmer survives resignation of both his chief of staff and his director of comms within 24 hours of each other... feels like a No 10 operation in crisis and that this could be over quite quickly now.
Now, we know the Westminster VI numbers mask the role of local groups such as Aspire, Newham Independents and the Residents in Havering but the latter look under serious threat from Reform.
On those numbers, you'd suspect overall losses for Labour and the Conservatives, static for the LDs, small advances for Greens and bigger gains for Reform but of course it's much more nuanced than that and the days of there being Conservative vs Labour, Conservative vs Liberal Democrat and Labour vs Liberal Democrat contests in the capital seem to be over which makes any kind of forecasting really different.
For example, in Newham, Labour face both the Newham Independents and the Greens whereas in Bromley Reform will be challenging both Conservative and Labour and in Sutton it'll be the Liberal Democrats vs the Conservatives vs Reform.
Tim Allan going is a big surprise… not just a director of comms but a significant link back to the Tony Blair Number 10, with some old school strategic nous, connections with business etc… blimey.
Blair-era connections with business should probably be treated as a red flag.
"The Super Bowl Halftime Show is absolutely terrible, one of the worst, EVER! It makes no sense, is an affront to the Greatness of America, and doesn’t represent our standards of Success, Creativity, or Excellence. Nobody understands a word this guy is saying, and the dancing is disgusting, especially for young children that are watching from throughout the U.S.A., and all over the World," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
Of course over half of Tory MPs have front bench roles thanks to Kemis patronage so VONC passing is a tough sell
They would still have those posts under Cleverly as there are so few Tory MPs now
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
They are not going to VONC Kemi and have no idea who might replace her.
The Tories are not South Park:
"Oh my God, they killed Kemi. The bastards!"
If the Tories are third in May the 2/3 of Tory MPs who did not vote for Kemi in 2024 will vote of no confidence her
So, they are going to blast away at their feet with high-calibre weaponry? Because what the Tories REALLY need is an extended period of instability. It having worked so well for them for the past 5 years.
As I've posted before we've a Council by-election early next month, Candidates have just been announced, and for the first time for ages we've a LibDem. Interestingly all of them, except Labour, 'live in Braintree District'. The Labour candidate lives in the main community in the ward. The Reform lad posted a picture of his canvassing team on Facebook; all of them, except him, seemed to be elderly men with very short-haircuts!
Out delivering the Bullet-head Bulletin?
If they were we haven't got one. The only we've got so far is the Independent's; There's an Independent Group on our District Council.
It's hard to see how Starmer survives resignation of both his chief of staff and his director of comms within 24 hours of each other... feels like a No 10 operation in crisis and that this could be over quite quickly now.
Sonia has been excellent throughout this crisis and is one of a number of leading labour women that know it is over for Starmer
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
Of course over half of Tory MPs have front bench roles thanks to Kemis patronage so VONC passing is a tough sell
They would still have those posts under Cleverly as there are so few Tory MPs now
It's hard to see how Starmer survives resignation of both his chief of staff and his director of comms within 24 hours of each other... feels like a No 10 operation in crisis and that this could be over quite quickly now.
Now, we know the Westminster VI numbers mask the role of local groups such as Aspire, Newham Independents and the Residents in Havering but the latter look under serious threat from Reform.
On those numbers, you'd suspect overall losses for Labour and the Conservatives, static for the LDs, small advances for Greens and bigger gains for Reform but of course it's much more nuanced than that and the days of there being Conservative vs Labour, Conservative vs Liberal Democrat and Labour vs Liberal Democrat contests in the capital seem to be over which makes any kind of forecasting really different.
For example, in Newham, Labour face both the Newham Independents and the Greens whereas in Bromley Reform will be challenging both Conservative and Labour and in Sutton it'll be the Liberal Democrats vs the Conservatives vs Reform.
How did UKIP only get 575 votes across London? Didi they not stand more than a handful of candidates
It's hard to see how Starmer survives resignation of both his chief of staff and his director of comms within 24 hours of each other... feels like a No 10 operation in crisis and that this could be over quite quickly now.
Claude says that Boris Johnson survived it within 2 days twice.
February 2022 - Boris Johnson (Partygate) Dan Rosenfield (Chief of Staff) and Jack Doyle (Director of Communications) both resigned on February 3, 2022 WikipediaWikipedia - on the same day - along with two other senior aides (Martin Reynolds and Munira Mirza). This was during the Partygate scandal.
November 2020 - Boris Johnson Lee Cain (Director of Communications) resigned on November 11, 2020 Bloomberg, and Dominic Cummings (who served as de facto chief of staff/Chief Adviser) left on November 13, 2020 Fox News Zee News - within two days of each other. This was amid internal power struggles in Downing Street.
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
They are not going to VONC Kemi and have no idea who might replace her.
The Tories are not South Park:
"Oh my God, they killed Kemi. The bastards!"
If the Tories are third in May the 2/3 of Tory MPs who did not vote for Kemi in 2024 will vote of no confidence her
So, they are going to blast away at their feet with high calibre weaponry? Because what the Tories REALLY need is an extended period of instability. It having worked so well for them for the past 5 years.
Well, it's a view...
There seem to be some who whilst until today still in the party want to diminish from within. Those who have taken Farage's money have done so but I will stay and fight for the party I have been a member of for fifty years. We can all see that ditching Kemi would be a disaster, that is why Farage's protozoa are advocating it so strongly.
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
My opinion, FWIW, is that the Tories really needed a leader who looked "prime ministerial". That would help differentiate them from Reform, as few people relish the idea of Nige in No 10 (including quite possibly Nige himself if he has any self-awareness). The obvious choice was Cleverly which is why he got the backing of Tory MPs until they screwed up the leadership election by accidentally excluding him.
However, we are where we are, Kemi has shown some capacity for improvement and learning on the job, and the downside of yet another leadership election would likely outweigh any possible benefits. So Kemi it is. I really doubt there will be much appetite to remover her, however bad May turns out, and it's certainly not looking good. Her polling is improving but the Tory brand remains stuck in the mire, and the only solution to that is the passage of time. Keep grinning and bearing it.
Tory MPs will but if the Tories are 3rd in May most of them will be losing their seats anyway, even most tactical anti Reform votes would go to Labour not Tory candidates, so they would have no choice but to gamble and would remove Kemi and replace her with Cleverly.
As I said May is make or break for Kemi, the Tories have to get 2nd or she is gone
Can I just say in the kindest way possible continual repetitive posts become boring and lose credibility
You have made your point and maybe time to move on, please
With all due respect, how come his 'continual repetitive posts' are out of order, but yours ('Starmer must go') are not?
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
My opinion, FWIW, is that the Tories really needed a leader who looked "prime ministerial". That would help differentiate them from Reform, as few people relish the idea of Nige in No 10 (including quite possibly Nige himself if he has any self-awareness). The obvious choice was Cleverly which is why he got the backing of Tory MPs until they screwed up the leadership election by accidentally excluding him.
However, we are where we are, Kemi has shown some capacity for improvement and learning on the job, and the downside of yet another leadership election would likely outweigh any possible benefits. So Kemi it is. I really doubt there will be much appetite to remover her, however bad May turns out, and it's certainly not looking good. Her polling is improving but the Tory brand remains stuck in the mire, and the only solution to that is the passage of time. Keep grinning and bearing it.
Tory MPs will but if the Tories are 3rd in May most of them will be losing their seats anyway, even most tactical anti Reform votes would go to Labour not Tory candidates, so they would have no choice but to gamble and would remove Kemi and replace her with Cleverly.
As I said May is make or break for Kemi, the Tories have to get 2nd or she is gone
Can I just say in the kindest way possible continual repetitive posts become boring and lose credibility
You have made your point and maybe time to move on, please
Now, we know the Westminster VI numbers mask the role of local groups such as Aspire, Newham Independents and the Residents in Havering but the latter look under serious threat from Reform.
On those numbers, you'd suspect overall losses for Labour and the Conservatives, static for the LDs, small advances for Greens and bigger gains for Reform but of course it's much more nuanced than that and the days of there being Conservative vs Labour, Conservative vs Liberal Democrat and Labour vs Liberal Democrat contests in the capital seem to be over which makes any kind of forecasting really different.
For example, in Newham, Labour face both the Newham Independents and the Greens whereas in Bromley Reform will be challenging both Conservative and Labour and in Sutton it'll be the Liberal Democrats vs the Conservatives vs Reform.
How did UKIP only get 575 votes across London? Didi they not stand more than a handful of candidates
By 2022 UKIP was in complete meltdown In 2019 they only got 22,000 votes nationwide, lost all their Welsh members in 2021 falling to 1.56% and their London Mayor candidate got 0.6%. They lost their last assembly member too to indy defection They were on full life support by May 2022 and lost their last remaining uk councillors in the 2023 locals (although now have one in Kent after a defection from Reform)
Comments
Am I correct in understanding that the markets will only be settled when SKS is replaced?
Even if the date of replacement has passed?
For example 1st April 26 market will be settled on 1st April if he is replaced but not if he isn't?
I honestly cannot see anyone, but I’m open to persuasion.
"This ‘Show’ is just a ‘slap in the face’ to our Country, which is setting new standards and records every single day — including the Best Stock Market and 401(k)s in History! There is nothing inspirational about this mess of a Halftime Show and watch, it will get great reviews from the Fake News Media, because they haven’t got a clue of what is going on in the REAL WORLD — And, by the way, the NFL should immediately replace its ridiculous new Kickoff Rule. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/bad-bunnys-super-bowl-halftime-show-ignites-trumps-fury-divides-viewers
https://abcnews.go.com/US/trump-calls-bad-bunnys-super-bowl-halftime-show/story?id=129980124
1) won’t appoint anyone controversial as ambassador.
2) immigrant - so shoves a spike up Farages nose.
3) brings back the hard left. I mean, even actual Tankies can’t say he’s on the right.
4) previous experience in running a major country.
5) breaks through the Thanatophobic barrier
6) will be popular in Northern Ireland
7) reset relations with Russia
8) Trump might start taking his orders from the U.K.
9) won’t give away any bits of the UK
10) won’t have any connection with Epstein.
What’s not to like?
Overheard some blokes in their 50s recently saying how they thought in the early 90s that they expected to have a 'great world' but that its all been ruined by 'him in America', 'him in Russia', 'him in China', 'him in Iran' etc.
Now if you look at their ages:
Trump, born 1946
Putin, born 1952
Xi, born 1953
Khamenei, born 1939
And you can add others according to your views:
Netanyahu, Farage, Starmer or even back to the likes of Fred Goodwin and Adam Applegarth.
The boomers ruined the future we were supposed to have and which is now the present we don't want.
They ain't coming back, Nige.
Unfortunately Russia can see that their own current & past actions drive western Europe to this logical conclusion & therefore concludes that they must create a buffer zone of client nations between them & western Europe. Yet more expansion of the continental empire is perceived as the only option.
These two lines of thought reinforce each other: The empire that feels threatened even when it isn’t must expand & thus creates the very threat it intends to neutralise.
"...once air travel became commonplace, it meant tens of millions of people who were theoretically entitled to come and live here actually could, and what was hypothetical became reality."
· now
EXCL: Tim Allan, Keir Starmer’s director of communications, steps down from Downing Street role.
“I have decided to stand down to allow a new No 10 team to be built. I wish the PM and his team every success,” he says.
The last time a British prime minister won a majority at a general election, and then went into the next general election still serving as prime minister was in 2001. A quarter of a century ago.
However, we are where we are, Kemi has shown some capacity for improvement and learning on the job, and the downside of yet another leadership election would likely outweigh any possible benefits. So Kemi it is. I really doubt there will be much appetite to remover her, however bad May turns out, and it's certainly not looking good. Her polling is improving but the Tory brand remains stuck in the mire, and the only solution to that is the passage of time. Keep grinning and bearing it.
A person reviewed a clause that they mistakenly thought was written by a person (despite being told otherwise) and declared it was fine (albeit with some unnecessary filler). Upon being told again it was actually written by AI, it suddenly needed amendment.
We’re cooked
Then...
Tim Allan is Starmer’s fourth director of comms to go since taking office 19 months ago. Suggests the problem isn’t the communications team…
Number 10 loses comms directors like I lose phone chargers
Tim Allan going is a big surprise… not just a director of comms but a significant link back to the Tony Blair Number 10, with some old school strategic nous, connections with business etc… blimey.
Keir Starmer's comms directors are getting to be like drummers in Spinal Tap
There’s probably room for humans in the loop for a while longer…
If you ever get the chance to see/hear Vassily Petrenko conduct Shostakovich's Tenth Symphony, drop everything and go.
Last night he (and his orchestra - the RPO) blew the roof off the GlassHouse in Gateshead.
Just extraordinary. Never heard classical music like it. Infinitely more barbaric and intense than the Leningrad symphony. Stalin should have been proud to have inspired it, sort of.
There must be a “y” in the day
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/02/randomly-quoting-ray-bradbury-did-not-save-lawyer-from-losing-case-over-ai-errors/
The puppet HK Government, no doubt under instruction from Beijing has finally loosed Visa Regulations.
This allows around 26,000 HK citizens who were under 18 in 1999 to have access to Visas to leave using their British passports.
Thousands of families finally reunited.
It's good to talk
We'll done SKS
Today might get more interesting
That I was aged between 12 and 24 during that time is totally irrelevant.
The Tories are not South Park:
"Oh my God, they killed Kemi. The bastards!"
Will the last person left in Downing Street please leave the door open for @AndyBurnhamGM
Tim Allan has stepped down as Starmer’s director of comms after just a few months.
He rated McSweeney and had been close to Mandelson (because of their New Labour and Blair origins), though it was him who told a furious Mandelson that the PM had sacked him.
There will inevitably be speculation that Mandelson sent Allan messages while ambassador that would embarrass the government and will have to be released following the parliamentary vote to publish all such communication.
Allan brought order to Downing St comms in hugely challenging circumstances- he managed crisis after crisis, including the Rayner resignation - so it is another big job for Starmer to fill.
Arguably Starmer has now lost his two most important aides in 24 hours. This is quite the crisis.
The Reform lad posted a picture of his canvassing team on Facebook; all of them, except him, seemed to be elderly men with very short-haircuts!
As I said May is make or break for Kemi, the Tories have to get 2nd or she is gone
I know it is different but if Jill Biden had persuaded Joe to stand down we almost certainly would not have had Trump
Starmer no doubt means well but he is not a politician and was more suited to Attorney General
If he does the right thing, I and no doubt the country, will wish him well
It's just a shame that for the first 4 years of his internment in 2020 that the British Government under Boris, Truss and Sunak led by the China haters Pritti, IDS and Kearns refused to deal directly with Beijing.
Clearly one visit not enough after that diplomatic Tory slur to release Lai.
At least thousands of families with British roots will benefit from a British PM with the balls and backbone to reopen diplomatic channels
As for Jimmy Lai, he knew the risks, he made his choices.
You have made your point and maybe time to move on, please
It's hard to see how Starmer survives resignation of both his chief of staff and his director of comms within 24 hours of each other... feels like a No 10 operation in crisis and that this could be over quite quickly now.
Bullshit? Probably. But fun bullshit
For a bit of context, the votes in the 2022 round of local elections in London were:
Labour: 40.3%
Conservative: 24.8%
Liberal Democrat: 13.8%
Greens: 11.4%
Aspire: 2.8%
Havering Residents Association: 2.7%
Independent: 1.6%
Reform got 0.16% or 3,792 votes across the capital.
The latest London-wide Westminster poll (yes, I know) from Savanta in mid-December was:
Labour: 31%
Reform: 19%
Greens: 18%
Conservatives: 17%
Liberal Democrats: 13%
Now, we know the Westminster VI numbers mask the role of local groups such as Aspire, Newham Independents and the Residents in Havering but the latter look under serious threat from Reform.
On those numbers, you'd suspect overall losses for Labour and the Conservatives, static for the LDs, small advances for Greens and bigger gains for Reform but of course it's much more nuanced than that and the days of there being Conservative vs Labour, Conservative vs Liberal Democrat and Labour vs Liberal Democrat contests in the capital seem to be over which makes any kind of forecasting really different.
For example, in Newham, Labour face both the Newham Independents and the Greens whereas in Bromley Reform will be challenging both Conservative and Labour and in Sutton it'll be the Liberal Democrats vs the Conservatives vs Reform.
Well, it's a view...
February 2022 - Boris Johnson (Partygate)
Dan Rosenfield (Chief of Staff) and Jack Doyle (Director of Communications) both resigned on February 3, 2022 WikipediaWikipedia - on the same day - along with two other senior aides (Martin Reynolds and Munira Mirza). This was during the Partygate scandal.
November 2020 - Boris Johnson
Lee Cain (Director of Communications) resigned on November 11, 2020 Bloomberg, and Dominic Cummings (who served as de facto chief of staff/Chief Adviser) left on November 13, 2020 Fox News Zee News - within two days of each other. This was amid internal power struggles in Downing Street.
In 2019 they only got 22,000 votes nationwide, lost all their Welsh members in 2021 falling to 1.56% and their London Mayor candidate got 0.6%. They lost their last assembly member too to indy defection
They were on full life support by May 2022 and lost their last remaining uk councillors in the 2023 locals (although now have one in Kent after a defection from Reform)
That’s all folks
https://x.com/patrickkmaguire/status/2020815920080306310?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q