Its starting to collapse. Why has the comms chief suddenly gone less than 24 hours after the CoS? He has nothing to do with Mandygate Today might get more interesting
{Lady Bracknell mode}
To lose 1 comms chief in 18 months might be considered unfortunate.
"The Super Bowl Halftime Show is absolutely terrible, one of the worst, EVER! It makes no sense, is an affront to the Greatness of America, and doesn’t represent our standards of Success, Creativity, or Excellence. Nobody understands a word this guy is saying, and the dancing is disgusting, especially for young children that are watching from throughout the U.S.A., and all over the World," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
It's hard to see how Starmer survives resignation of both his chief of staff and his director of comms within 24 hours of each other... feels like a No 10 operation in crisis and that this could be over quite quickly now.
Claude says that Boris Johnson survived it within 2 days twice.
February 2022 - Boris Johnson (Partygate) Dan Rosenfield (Chief of Staff) and Jack Doyle (Director of Communications) both resigned on February 3, 2022 WikipediaWikipedia - on the same day - along with two other senior aides (Martin Reynolds and Munira Mirza). This was during the Partygate scandal.
November 2020 - Boris Johnson Lee Cain (Director of Communications) resigned on November 11, 2020 Bloomberg, and Dominic Cummings (who served as de facto chief of staff/Chief Adviser) left on November 13, 2020 Fox News Zee News - within two days of each other. This was amid internal power struggles in Downing Street.
It's hard to see how Starmer survives resignation of both his chief of staff and his director of comms within 24 hours of each other... feels like a No 10 operation in crisis and that this could be over quite quickly now.
Sonia has been excellent throughout this crisis and is one of a number of leading labour women that know it is over for Starmer
Are her comments on the Starmer survival a Sodha Stream?
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
My opinion, FWIW, is that the Tories really needed a leader who looked "prime ministerial". That would help differentiate them from Reform, as few people relish the idea of Nige in No 10 (including quite possibly Nige himself if he has any self-awareness). The obvious choice was Cleverly which is why he got the backing of Tory MPs until they screwed up the leadership election by accidentally excluding him.
However, we are where we are, Kemi has shown some capacity for improvement and learning on the job, and the downside of yet another leadership election would likely outweigh any possible benefits. So Kemi it is. I really doubt there will be much appetite to remover her, however bad May turns out, and it's certainly not looking good. Her polling is improving but the Tory brand remains stuck in the mire, and the only solution to that is the passage of time. Keep grinning and bearing it.
Tory MPs will but if the Tories are 3rd in May most of them will be losing their seats anyway, even most tactical anti Reform votes would go to Labour not Tory candidates, so they would have no choice but to gamble and would remove Kemi and replace her with Cleverly.
As I said May is make or break for Kemi, the Tories have to get 2nd or she is gone
Can I just say in the kindest way possible continual repetitive posts become boring and lose credibility
You have made your point and maybe time to move on, please
With all due respect, how come his 'continual repetitive posts' are out of order, but yours ('Starmer must go') are not?
The calls for Starmer to go are widespread across this forum and outside
NEW: Keir Starmer vows to go on and makes clear he’s not resigning
Addressing No10 staff, the Prime Minister said they were united by a “driving purpose” of “public duty”.
Referring to the revelations about Mandelson, he said: “The thing that makes me most angry is the undermining of the belief that politics can be a force for good and can change lives.
“I have been absolutely clear that I regret the decision that I made to appoint Peter Mandelson. And I've apologised to the victims which is the right thing to do.”
Now, we know the Westminster VI numbers mask the role of local groups such as Aspire, Newham Independents and the Residents in Havering but the latter look under serious threat from Reform.
On those numbers, you'd suspect overall losses for Labour and the Conservatives, static for the LDs, small advances for Greens and bigger gains for Reform but of course it's much more nuanced than that and the days of there being Conservative vs Labour, Conservative vs Liberal Democrat and Labour vs Liberal Democrat contests in the capital seem to be over which makes any kind of forecasting really different.
For example, in Newham, Labour face both the Newham Independents and the Greens whereas in Bromley Reform will be challenging both Conservative and Labour and in Sutton it'll be the Liberal Democrats vs the Conservatives vs Reform.
Just to say, I am enjoying these detailed observations from Stodge - and I think Foxy and Wooliedyed were also in discussions on the subject yesterday. (Sorry, I was able to read the site, but not log in.) I wonder, would it make an interesting subject for a small mini-competition for May? How many seats, how many councils, voting percentages for each party across London only?
People come here hoping to read strong takes with an angle not already done to death and I have one. Keir Starmer will not resign over the Mandelson affair. Not because he’s stubborn or delusional or strong or weak, but because of legacy. If he resigns in the midst of this he will go down in the annals as the PM destroyed by a paedophile scandal. That’s the pits for obvious reasons. The fact he had no links whatsoever with Jeffrey Epstein only makes it worse. That sort of detail gets lost in the superficial popular understanding of history esp as times passes.
Hence why Starmer will bust a gut and then bust another one to get to the other side of this - past the byelection and the locals and through to the summer. At that point, if the results are as bad as feared he can exit with a narrative of “I’ve listened, it’s time for somebody else to take this forward”. If things surprise on the upside, otoh, he can carry on into 27/28 and exit with a more satisfying narrative of “I don’t wish to serve a second term, too tired, so now’s the time to make the change”. Both of those outcomes are a thousand times better than resigning over Epstein/Mandelson.
So, no SKS resignation coming until May at the earliest and possibly not this year at all. That's how I’m seeing things. It happens to suit my book but please don’t let that prejudice you. Likewise that this comes from the poster who commented on the last photo of the late Queen, the day before she died, that "she's looking well". Because by that precedent Sir Keir will be at the lectern in Downing St this evening.
Now, we know the Westminster VI numbers mask the role of local groups such as Aspire, Newham Independents and the Residents in Havering but the latter look under serious threat from Reform.
On those numbers, you'd suspect overall losses for Labour and the Conservatives, static for the LDs, small advances for Greens and bigger gains for Reform but of course it's much more nuanced than that and the days of there being Conservative vs Labour, Conservative vs Liberal Democrat and Labour vs Liberal Democrat contests in the capital seem to be over which makes any kind of forecasting really different.
For example, in Newham, Labour face both the Newham Independents and the Greens whereas in Bromley Reform will be challenging both Conservative and Labour and in Sutton it'll be the Liberal Democrats vs the Conservatives vs Reform.
Just to say, I am enjoying these detailed observations from Stodge - and I think Foxy and Wooliedyed were also in discussions on the subject yesterday. (Sorry, I was able to read the site, but not log in.) I wonder, would it make an interesting subject for a small mini-competition for May? How many seats, how many councils, voting percentages for each party across London only?
Quite obvious that Starmer's regime is basically in bunker mode. Aides getting out ahead of the eventual fall of the PM.
The question is, why are cabinet ministers not resigning on an hourly basis?
Two options I can think of:
1) Are they hurt by the Purnell experience in the late Brown days - and worry they'll end up as footnotes in political quiz nights. 2) Do they actually need the money? I'm guessing a good number of the current cabinet are on their highest ever salaries. Unlike most Tory governments, this lot don't seem to have the same widespread private sector experience and - frankly - paychecks to give freedom of operation.....
People come here hoping to read strong takes with an angle not already done to death and I have one. Keir Starmer will not resign over the Mandelson affair. Not because he’s stubborn or delusional or strong or weak, but because of legacy. If he resigns in the midst of this he will go down in the annals as the PM destroyed by a paedophile scandal. That’s the pits for obvious reasons. The fact he had no links whatsoever with Jeffrey Epstein only makes it worse. That sort of detail gets lost in the superficial popular understanding of history esp as times passes.
Hence why Starmer will bust a gut and then bust another one to get to the other side of this - past the byelection and the locals and through to the summer. At that point, if the results are as bad as feared he can exit with a narrative of “I’ve listened, it’s time for somebody else to take this forward”. If things surprise on the upside, otoh, he can carry on into 27/28 and exit with a more satisfying narrative of “I don’t wish to serve a second term, too tired, so now’s the time to make the change”. Both of those outcomes are a thousand times better than resigning over Epstein/Mandelson.
So, no SKS resignation coming until May at the earliest and possibly not this year at all. That's how I’m seeing things. It happens to suit my book but please don’t let that prejudice you. Likewise that this comes from the poster who commented on the last photo of the late Queen, the day before she died, that "she's looking well". Because by that precedent Sir Keir will be at the lectern in Downing St this evening.
His legacy is going to be what? Giving away sovereign territory and paying for the privilege? Abolishing jury trials?
Seems to me that even his legacy play is snookered. He might as well chuck the towel in now and at least resign with some dignity.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges One thing I think is being missed. With the new talk of a caretaker PM - which is real - the pool of possible replacements for Starmer (all-be-it for the short term) has widened significantly.
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
They are not going to VONC Kemi and have no idea who might replace her.
The Tories are not South Park:
"Oh my God, they killed Kemi. The bastards!"
If the Tories are third in May the 2/3 of Tory MPs who did not vote for Kemi in 2024 will vote of no confidence her
So, they are going to blast away at their feet with high-calibre weaponry? Because what the Tories REALLY need is an extended period of instability. It having worked so well for them for the past 5 years.
Well, it's a view...
If the Tories are THIRD or worse in a second consecutive national election then they are headed for extinction while we keep FPTP, even Kemi would know she is done if that happens
Tim Shipman: One way of replacing McSweeney would be to bring in Jonathan Powell as chief of staff, the role he performed for Tony Blair, but my understanding is he’s happier running foreign affairs.
Now, we know the Westminster VI numbers mask the role of local groups such as Aspire, Newham Independents and the Residents in Havering but the latter look under serious threat from Reform.
On those numbers, you'd suspect overall losses for Labour and the Conservatives, static for the LDs, small advances for Greens and bigger gains for Reform but of course it's much more nuanced than that and the days of there being Conservative vs Labour, Conservative vs Liberal Democrat and Labour vs Liberal Democrat contests in the capital seem to be over which makes any kind of forecasting really different.
For example, in Newham, Labour face both the Newham Independents and the Greens whereas in Bromley Reform will be challenging both Conservative and Labour and in Sutton it'll be the Liberal Democrats vs the Conservatives vs Reform.
So a small swing of 1-2% from Labour to Conservative in London since 2022.
The fact Reform are not leading in London unlike most of the UK also means Reform won't win most seats in London as they will in most of the rest of the seats up in England and maybe Wales in May. So Westminster and Barnet still possible gains for the Tories even if they lose some seats to Reform in outer suburban London
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
They are not going to VONC Kemi and have no idea who might replace her.
The Tories are not South Park:
"Oh my God, they killed Kemi. The bastards!"
If the Tories are third in May the 2/3 of Tory MPs who did not vote for Kemi in 2024 will vote of no confidence her
So, they are going to blast away at their feet with high-calibre weaponry? Because what the Tories REALLY need is an extended period of instability. It having worked so well for them for the past 5 years.
Well, it's a view...
If the Tories are THIRD or worse in a second consecutive national election then they are headed for extinction while we keep FPTP, even Kemi would know she is done if that happens
I wonder if the Tories have the political intelligence to realise that the system that served them so well for the last 200 years is now about to destroy them. A death-bed conversion to a sensible voting system would be most welcome, but I don't see it happening just yet.
Quite obvious that Starmer's regime is basically in bunker mode. Aides getting out ahead of the eventual fall of the PM.
The question is, why are cabinet ministers not resigning on an hourly basis?
Two options I can think of:
1) Are they hurt by the Purnell experience in the late Brown days - and worry they'll end up as footnotes in political quiz nights. 2) Do they actually need the money? I'm guessing a good number of the current cabinet are on their highest ever salaries. Unlike most Tory governments, this lot don't seem to have the same widespread private sector experience and - frankly - paychecks to give freedom of operation.....
Purnell though had a Second Act: he went on to run the BBC iirc.
NEW: Keir Starmer vows to go on and makes clear he’s not resigning
Addressing No10 staff, the Prime Minister said they were united by a “driving purpose” of “public duty”.
Referring to the revelations about Mandelson, he said: “The thing that makes me most angry is the undermining of the belief that politics can be a force for good and can change lives.
“I have been absolutely clear that I regret the decision that I made to appoint Peter Mandelson. And I've apologised to the victims which is the right thing to do.”
If it was in German we would say it was part of the script from Downfall.
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
They are not going to VONC Kemi and have no idea who might replace her.
The Tories are not South Park:
"Oh my God, they killed Kemi. The bastards!"
If the Tories are third in May the 2/3 of Tory MPs who did not vote for Kemi in 2024 will vote of no confidence her
So, they are going to blast away at their feet with high-calibre weaponry? Because what the Tories REALLY need is an extended period of instability. It having worked so well for them for the past 5 years.
Well, it's a view...
If the Tories are THIRD or worse in a second consecutive national election then they are headed for extinction while we keep FPTP, even Kemi would know she is done if that happens
Depends on the NEV
Ref 25 Lab 24 Con 23
Is a rather different 3rd place to Ref 35 Lab 20 Con 15
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
My opinion, FWIW, is that the Tories really needed a leader who looked "prime ministerial". That would help differentiate them from Reform, as few people relish the idea of Nige in No 10 (including quite possibly Nige himself if he has any self-awareness). The obvious choice was Cleverly which is why he got the backing of Tory MPs until they screwed up the leadership election by accidentally excluding him.
However, we are where we are, Kemi has shown some capacity for improvement and learning on the job, and the downside of yet another leadership election would likely outweigh any possible benefits. So Kemi it is. I really doubt there will be much appetite to remover her, however bad May turns out, and it's certainly not looking good. Her polling is improving but the Tory brand remains stuck in the mire, and the only solution to that is the passage of time. Keep grinning and bearing it.
Tory MPs will but if the Tories are 3rd in May most of them will be losing their seats anyway, even most tactical anti Reform votes would go to Labour not Tory candidates, so they would have no choice but to gamble and would remove Kemi and replace her with Cleverly.
As I said May is make or break for Kemi, the Tories have to get 2nd or she is gone
Can I just say in the kindest way possible continual repetitive posts become boring and lose credibility
You have made your point and maybe time to move on, please
With all due respect, how come his 'continual repetitive posts' are out of order, but yours ('Starmer must go') are not?
The calls for Starmer to go are widespread across this forum and outside
But the other day you were saying the problems the country/the Tories face is down to ditching their leaders so easily.
People come here hoping to read strong takes with an angle not already done to death and I have one. Keir Starmer will not resign over the Mandelson affair. Not because he’s stubborn or delusional or strong or weak, but because of legacy. If he resigns in the midst of this he will go down in the annals as the PM destroyed by a paedophile scandal. That’s the pits for obvious reasons. The fact he had no links whatsoever with Jeffrey Epstein only makes it worse. That sort of detail gets lost in the superficial popular understanding of history esp as times passes.
Hence why Starmer will bust a gut and then bust another one to get to the other side of this - past the byelection and the locals and through to the summer. At that point, if the results are as bad as feared he can exit with a narrative of “I’ve listened, it’s time for somebody else to take this forward”. If things surprise on the upside, otoh, he can carry on into 27/28 and exit with a more satisfying narrative of “I don’t wish to serve a second term, too tired, so now’s the time to make the change”. Both of those outcomes are a thousand times better than resigning over Epstein/Mandelson.
So, no SKS resignation coming until May at the earliest and possibly not this year at all. That's how I’m seeing things. It happens to suit my book but please don’t let that prejudice you. Likewise that this comes from the poster who commented on the last photo of the late Queen, the day before she died, that "she's looking well". Because by that precedent Sir Keir will be at the lectern in Downing St this evening.
His legacy is going to be what? Giving away sovereign territory and paying for the privilege? Abolishing jury trials?
Seems to me that even his legacy play is snookered. He might as well chuck the towel in now and at least resign with some dignity.
But you are not, it has to be said, the most impartial judge of what his legacy might or might not be.
I have today been informed that, despite personal assurances to the contrary, the Green party have once again used my image and misrepresented my words on a second leaflet circulated in Gorton and Denton ahead of the by-election. I have now lodged an official complaint with the returning officer.
Now, we know the Westminster VI numbers mask the role of local groups such as Aspire, Newham Independents and the Residents in Havering but the latter look under serious threat from Reform.
On those numbers, you'd suspect overall losses for Labour and the Conservatives, static for the LDs, small advances for Greens and bigger gains for Reform but of course it's much more nuanced than that and the days of there being Conservative vs Labour, Conservative vs Liberal Democrat and Labour vs Liberal Democrat contests in the capital seem to be over which makes any kind of forecasting really different.
For example, in Newham, Labour face both the Newham Independents and the Greens whereas in Bromley Reform will be challenging both Conservative and Labour and in Sutton it'll be the Liberal Democrats vs the Conservatives vs Reform.
So a small swing of 1-2% from Labour to Conservative in London since 2022.
The fact Reform are not leading in London unlike most of the UK also means Reform won't win most seats in London as they will in most of the rest of the seats up in England and maybe Wales in May. So Westminster and Barnet still possible gains for the Tories even if they lose some seats to Reform in outer suburban London
An interesting post from 'Chipper' Susan Hall on ConHome about a Tory resurgence in London (she would say that!) She flags up Westminster and Wandsworth as the big 2 to reclaim. Id say Barnet more likely than Wandsy and Enfield one to watch but time will tell
Older people can remember when things were better. 20-30 years ago. When the land was calmer and happier. Before the epic levels of migration
Much of Western Europe has been economically stagnant for two decades while importing millions of people from alien cultures in a disastrous experiment gone horribly wrong
Older people are old enough to recall the days before the experiment.
Big Nige knows exactly how to massage an enlarged boomer prostate with a nicotine stained finger.
Does the good days returning involve Farage taking a long walk off a short pier headland?
Quite obvious that Starmer's regime is basically in bunker mode. Aides getting out ahead of the eventual fall of the PM.
The question is, why are cabinet ministers not resigning on an hourly basis?
Two options I can think of:
1) Are they hurt by the Purnell experience in the late Brown days - and worry they'll end up as footnotes in political quiz nights. 2) Do they actually need the money? I'm guessing a good number of the current cabinet are on their highest ever salaries. Unlike most Tory governments, this lot don't seem to have the same widespread private sector experience and - frankly - paychecks to give freedom of operation.....
Purnell though had a Second Act: he went on to run the BBC iirc.
Of course given the Tories multi implosion rate they might all be sitting on their hands.
Waiting to see who new Comms team is and what Starmer says
I mean if he brings in Campbell and Paul Mason then the left and centre left and centre rump are suddenly all feeling apoeased
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
They are not going to VONC Kemi and have no idea who might replace her.
The Tories are not South Park:
"Oh my God, they killed Kemi. The bastards!"
If the Tories are third in May the 2/3 of Tory MPs who did not vote for Kemi in 2024 will vote of no confidence her
So, they are going to blast away at their feet with high-calibre weaponry? Because what the Tories REALLY need is an extended period of instability. It having worked so well for them for the past 5 years.
Well, it's a view...
If the Tories are THIRD or worse in a second consecutive national election then they are headed for extinction while we keep FPTP, even Kemi would know she is done if that happens
I wonder if the Tories have the political intelligence to realise that the system that served them so well for the last 200 years is now about to destroy them. A death-bed conversion to a sensible voting system would be most welcome, but I don't see it happening just yet.
Indeed, if we had PR 20% of the vote would give the Tories 130 MPs, even 15% of the vote would give 100 Tory MPs, whereas under FPTP they are currently projected just 39% MPs with 18.6% of the vote.
Unless the Tories remain in the top 2, FPTP means their near extinction and likely eventual takeover by Reform with some One Nations going LD
NEW: Keir Starmer vows to go on and makes clear he’s not resigning
Addressing No10 staff, the Prime Minister said they were united by a “driving purpose” of “public duty”.
Referring to the revelations about Mandelson, he said: “The thing that makes me most angry is the undermining of the belief that politics can be a force for good and can change lives.
“I have been absolutely clear that I regret the decision that I made to appoint Peter Mandelson. And I've apologised to the victims which is the right thing to do.”
Explicitly saying that what you have done is "the right thing to do" really grates on me. It's for others to judge whether you have done the right thing or not.
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
They are not going to VONC Kemi and have no idea who might replace her.
The Tories are not South Park:
"Oh my God, they killed Kemi. The bastards!"
If the Tories are third in May the 2/3 of Tory MPs who did not vote for Kemi in 2024 will vote of no confidence her
So, they are going to blast away at their feet with high-calibre weaponry? Because what the Tories REALLY need is an extended period of instability. It having worked so well for them for the past 5 years.
Well, it's a view...
If the Tories are THIRD or worse in a second consecutive national election then they are headed for extinction while we keep FPTP, even Kemi would know she is done if that happens
People come here hoping to read strong takes with an angle not already done to death and I have one. Keir Starmer will not resign over the Mandelson affair. Not because he’s stubborn or delusional or strong or weak, but because of legacy. If he resigns in the midst of this he will go down in the annals as the PM destroyed by a paedophile scandal. That’s the pits for obvious reasons. The fact he had no links whatsoever with Jeffrey Epstein only makes it worse. That sort of detail gets lost in the superficial popular understanding of history esp as times passes.
Hence why Starmer will bust a gut and then bust another one to get to the other side of this - past the byelection and the locals and through to the summer. At that point, if the results are as bad as feared he can exit with a narrative of “I’ve listened, it’s time for somebody else to take this forward”. If things surprise on the upside, otoh, he can carry on into 27/28 and exit with a more satisfying narrative of “I don’t wish to serve a second term, too tired, so now’s the time to make the change”. Both of those outcomes are a thousand times better than resigning over Epstein/Mandelson.
So, no SKS resignation coming until May at the earliest and possibly not this year at all. That's how I’m seeing things. It happens to suit my book but please don’t let that prejudice you. Likewise that this comes from the poster who commented on the last photo of the late Queen, the day before she died, that "she's looking well". Because by that precedent Sir Keir will be at the lectern in Downing St this evening.
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
My opinion, FWIW, is that the Tories really needed a leader who looked "prime ministerial". That would help differentiate them from Reform, as few people relish the idea of Nige in No 10 (including quite possibly Nige himself if he has any self-awareness). The obvious choice was Cleverly which is why he got the backing of Tory MPs until they screwed up the leadership election by accidentally excluding him.
However, we are where we are, Kemi has shown some capacity for improvement and learning on the job, and the downside of yet another leadership election would likely outweigh any possible benefits. So Kemi it is. I really doubt there will be much appetite to remover her, however bad May turns out, and it's certainly not looking good. Her polling is improving but the Tory brand remains stuck in the mire, and the only solution to that is the passage of time. Keep grinning and bearing it.
Tory MPs will but if the Tories are 3rd in May most of them will be losing their seats anyway, even most tactical anti Reform votes would go to Labour not Tory candidates, so they would have no choice but to gamble and would remove Kemi and replace her with Cleverly.
As I said May is make or break for Kemi, the Tories have to get 2nd or she is gone
Can I just say in the kindest way possible continual repetitive posts become boring and lose credibility
You have made your point and maybe time to move on, please
With all due respect, how come his 'continual repetitive posts' are out of order, but yours ('Starmer must go') are not?
The calls for Starmer to go are widespread across this forum and outside
But the other day you were saying the problems the country/the Tories face is down to ditching their leaders so easily.
The last thing the conservative party needs is another leadership contest
As far as Starmer is concerned he has brought this on himself and by his own standards he should stand down
Adam Boulton has just said it is 50/50 chance he will go in the next 48 hours
NEW: Keir Starmer vows to go on and makes clear he’s not resigning
Addressing No10 staff, the Prime Minister said they were united by a “driving purpose” of “public duty”.
Referring to the revelations about Mandelson, he said: “The thing that makes me most angry is the undermining of the belief that politics can be a force for good and can change lives.
“I have been absolutely clear that I regret the decision that I made to appoint Peter Mandelson. And I've apologised to the victims which is the right thing to do.”
Was that written by the intern who usually does the PM’s social media?
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
They are not going to VONC Kemi and have no idea who might replace her.
The Tories are not South Park:
"Oh my God, they killed Kemi. The bastards!"
If the Tories are third in May the 2/3 of Tory MPs who did not vote for Kemi in 2024 will vote of no confidence her
So, they are going to blast away at their feet with high-calibre weaponry? Because what the Tories REALLY need is an extended period of instability. It having worked so well for them for the past 5 years.
Well, it's a view...
If the Tories are THIRD or worse in a second consecutive national election then they are headed for extinction while we keep FPTP, even Kemi would know she is done if that happens
Has hyufd defected to Reform?
No, but apparently Con -1 with Opinium has caused the end of days
Noise is noise. I mean opinium had the LDs losing a quarter of their support in a fortnight. Spoiler - they havent
It is frankly hilarious and very telling that on a day the right wing press are saying is maximum danger for Starmer that equal column inches on here are focused on the imminent departure of calamity Kamikaze Kemi and the anointing of gently does it James Cleverly
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
They are not going to VONC Kemi and have no idea who might replace her.
The Tories are not South Park:
"Oh my God, they killed Kemi. The bastards!"
If the Tories are third in May the 2/3 of Tory MPs who did not vote for Kemi in 2024 will vote of no confidence her
So, they are going to blast away at their feet with high-calibre weaponry? Because what the Tories REALLY need is an extended period of instability. It having worked so well for them for the past 5 years.
Well, it's a view...
If the Tories are THIRD or worse in a second consecutive national election then they are headed for extinction while we keep FPTP, even Kemi would know she is done if that happens
I wonder if the Tories have the political intelligence to realise that the system that served them so well for the last 200 years is now about to destroy them. A death-bed conversion to a sensible voting system would be most welcome, but I don't see it happening just yet.
+1 - this Governemnt has a massive majority based on 33% of the vote.
That simply isn’t sustainable, the Tories and Labour need to fix our electoral system so 50% of voters have picked their preferred candidate.
Yes that will mean general elections are sorted by 5pm Friday rather than 7am Friday morning but it’s got to be better than what we are otherwise going to see in 2028/9
Indeed! People keep talking about 'oh, the soft left this', 'oh, his rivals in Downing Street that'. No, it's not the soft left on the backbenches or the Blairites in the Cabinet or No 10. It's the 'alliance of MPs who can count and would like to remain MPs'.
The All Party Parliamentary Group on Jesus H Christ Lads I Just Got Back From A Social With My Local Party And They Want Kier's Head On A Plate And Half Of Them Have Joined The Greens And I Just Saw Our Latest Canvas Returns
People come here hoping to read strong takes with an angle not already done to death and I have one. Keir Starmer will not resign over the Mandelson affair. Not because he’s stubborn or delusional or strong or weak, but because of legacy. If he resigns in the midst of this he will go down in the annals as the PM destroyed by a paedophile scandal. That’s the pits for obvious reasons. The fact he had no links whatsoever with Jeffrey Epstein only makes it worse. That sort of detail gets lost in the superficial popular understanding of history esp as times passes.
Hence why Starmer will bust a gut and then bust another one to get to the other side of this - past the byelection and the locals and through to the summer. At that point, if the results are as bad as feared he can exit with a narrative of “I’ve listened, it’s time for somebody else to take this forward”. If things surprise on the upside, otoh, he can carry on into 27/28 and exit with a more satisfying narrative of “I don’t wish to serve a second term, too tired, so now’s the time to make the change”. Both of those outcomes are a thousand times better than resigning over Epstein/Mandelson.
So, no SKS resignation coming until May at the earliest and possibly not this year at all. That's how I’m seeing things. It happens to suit my book but please don’t let that prejudice you. Likewise that this comes from the poster who commented on the last photo of the late Queen, the day before she died, that "she's looking well". Because by that precedent Sir Keir will be at the lectern in Downing St this evening.
Indeed. I think that the commentary over the past week has been nearly unhinged. I don't much rate SKS but the idea that he is on the brink seems to me to be more projection and wish fulfillment by a large section of the media than anything else. If, as I suspect, Kinabalu is right, I am sure that certain media quarters will totally lose it... but to little end. It would be no bad thing for the country if the media is to be so embarrassed.
Fishguard probably Plaid vs Reform Bradford (Keighley and Ilkley) should be a Tory hold, if it isnt they are really struggling Peterborough (NW Cambs actually) is being hit hard by Ref and Con and Lab will have residual strength. Paul Bristow has been campaigning here so clearly Tories want it and narrowly won the area in the mayorals but Ref maybe narrow favourite?
NEW: Keir Starmer vows to go on and makes clear he’s not resigning
Addressing No10 staff, the Prime Minister said they were united by a “driving purpose” of “public duty”.
Referring to the revelations about Mandelson, he said: “The thing that makes me most angry is the undermining of the belief that politics can be a force for good and can change lives.
“I have been absolutely clear that I regret the decision that I made to appoint Peter Mandelson. And I've apologised to the victims which is the right thing to do.”
Was that written by the intern who usually does the PM’s social media?
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
My opinion, FWIW, is that the Tories really needed a leader who looked "prime ministerial". That would help differentiate them from Reform, as few people relish the idea of Nige in No 10 (including quite possibly Nige himself if he has any self-awareness). The obvious choice was Cleverly which is why he got the backing of Tory MPs until they screwed up the leadership election by accidentally excluding him.
However, we are where we are, Kemi has shown some capacity for improvement and learning on the job, and the downside of yet another leadership election would likely outweigh any possible benefits. So Kemi it is. I really doubt there will be much appetite to remover her, however bad May turns out, and it's certainly not looking good. Her polling is improving but the Tory brand remains stuck in the mire, and the only solution to that is the passage of time. Keep grinning and bearing it.
Tory MPs will but if the Tories are 3rd in May most of them will be losing their seats anyway, even most tactical anti Reform votes would go to Labour not Tory candidates, so they would have no choice but to gamble and would remove Kemi and replace her with Cleverly.
As I said May is make or break for Kemi, the Tories have to get 2nd or she is gone
Can I just say in the kindest way possible continual repetitive posts become boring and lose credibility
You have made your point and maybe time to move on, please
With all due respect, how come his 'continual repetitive posts' are out of order, but yours ('Starmer must go') are not?
The calls for Starmer to go are widespread across this forum and outside
But the other day you were saying the problems the country/the Tories face is down to ditching their leaders so easily.
Prediction.
Those who are most adamant that Starmer Must Go Now will like his successor even less, whenever and whoever that successor is.
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
They are not going to VONC Kemi and have no idea who might replace her.
The Tories are not South Park:
"Oh my God, they killed Kemi. The bastards!"
If the Tories are third in May the 2/3 of Tory MPs who did not vote for Kemi in 2024 will vote of no confidence her
So, they are going to blast away at their feet with high-calibre weaponry? Because what the Tories REALLY need is an extended period of instability. It having worked so well for them for the past 5 years.
Well, it's a view...
If the Tories are THIRD or worse in a second consecutive national election then they are headed for extinction while we keep FPTP, even Kemi would know she is done if that happens
I wonder if the Tories have the political intelligence to realise that the system that served them so well for the last 200 years is now about to destroy them. A death-bed conversion to a sensible voting system would be most welcome, but I don't see it happening just yet.
Indeed, if we had PR 20% of the vote would give the Tories 130 MPs, even 15% of the vote would give 100 Tory MPs, whereas under FPTP they are currently projected just 39% MPs with 18.6% of the vote.
Unless the Tories remain in the top 2, FPTP means their near extinction and likely eventual takeover by Reform with some One Nations going LD
Yebbut, it ensures that the next Government is going to have a large Reform component. Whereas FPTP ensures a degree of scrutiny that could massively unravel them.
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
My opinion, FWIW, is that the Tories really needed a leader who looked "prime ministerial". That would help differentiate them from Reform, as few people relish the idea of Nige in No 10 (including quite possibly Nige himself if he has any self-awareness). The obvious choice was Cleverly which is why he got the backing of Tory MPs until they screwed up the leadership election by accidentally excluding him.
However, we are where we are, Kemi has shown some capacity for improvement and learning on the job, and the downside of yet another leadership election would likely outweigh any possible benefits. So Kemi it is. I really doubt there will be much appetite to remover her, however bad May turns out, and it's certainly not looking good. Her polling is improving but the Tory brand remains stuck in the mire, and the only solution to that is the passage of time. Keep grinning and bearing it.
Tory MPs will but if the Tories are 3rd in May most of them will be losing their seats anyway, even most tactical anti Reform votes would go to Labour not Tory candidates, so they would have no choice but to gamble and would remove Kemi and replace her with Cleverly.
As I said May is make or break for Kemi, the Tories have to get 2nd or she is gone
Can I just say in the kindest way possible continual repetitive posts become boring and lose credibility
You have made your point and maybe time to move on, please
With all due respect, how come his 'continual repetitive posts' are out of order, but yours ('Starmer must go') are not?
The calls for Starmer to go are widespread across this forum and outside
But the other day you were saying the problems the country/the Tories face is down to ditching their leaders so easily.
Prediction.
Those who are most adamant that Starmer Must Go Now will like his successor even less, whenever and whoever that successor is.
It's hard to see how Starmer survives resignation of both his chief of staff and his director of comms within 24 hours of each other... feels like a No 10 operation in crisis and that this could be over quite quickly now.
I'm at a complete loss here. All the chatter is about how Starmer's resignation/eviction is imminent yet it just doesn't feel like it. Have the public even noticed? Feels like a Westminster bubble (and include the politics obsessed weirdos of PB in that bubble). Am I totally wrong?
It's hard to see how Starmer survives resignation of both his chief of staff and his director of comms within 24 hours of each other... feels like a No 10 operation in crisis and that this could be over quite quickly now.
I'm at a complete loss here. All the chatter is about how Starmer's resignation/eviction is imminent yet it just doesn't feel like it. Have the public even noticed? Feels like a Westminster bubble (and include the politics obsessed weirdos of PB in that bubble). Am I totally wrong?
People come here hoping to read strong takes with an angle not already done to death and I have one. Keir Starmer will not resign over the Mandelson affair. Not because he’s stubborn or delusional or strong or weak, but because of legacy. If he resigns in the midst of this he will go down in the annals as the PM destroyed by a paedophile scandal. That’s the pits for obvious reasons. The fact he had no links whatsoever with Jeffrey Epstein only makes it worse. That sort of detail gets lost in the superficial popular understanding of history esp as times passes.
Hence why Starmer will bust a gut and then bust another one to get to the other side of this - past the byelection and the locals and through to the summer. At that point, if the results are as bad as feared he can exit with a narrative of “I’ve listened, it’s time for somebody else to take this forward”. If things surprise on the upside, otoh, he can carry on into 27/28 and exit with a more satisfying narrative of “I don’t wish to serve a second term, too tired, so now’s the time to make the change”. Both of those outcomes are a thousand times better than resigning over Epstein/Mandelson.
So, no SKS resignation coming until May at the earliest and possibly not this year at all. That's how I’m seeing things. It happens to suit my book but please don’t let that prejudice you. Likewise that this comes from the poster who commented on the last photo of the late Queen, the day before she died, that "she's looking well". Because by that precedent Sir Keir will be at the lectern in Downing St this evening.
It's hard to see how Starmer survives resignation of both his chief of staff and his director of comms within 24 hours of each other... feels like a No 10 operation in crisis and that this could be over quite quickly now.
I'm at a complete loss here. All the chatter is about how Starmer's resignation/eviction is imminent yet it just doesn't feel like it. Have the public even noticed? Feels like a Westminster bubble (and include the politics obsessed weirdos of PB in that bubble). Am I totally wrong?
The public get no say anyway until 2029, the average member of the public is probably talking about last night's Love Island or the Superbowl. It is of course a bubble issue and anyway Starmer is clearly not resigning, he has just sacked half his team and is bringing in some new aides
Tim Shipman: One way of replacing McSweeney would be to bring in Jonathan Powell as chief of staff, the role he performed for Tony Blair, but my understanding is he’s happier running foreign affairs.
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
They are not going to VONC Kemi and have no idea who might replace her.
The Tories are not South Park:
"Oh my God, they killed Kemi. The bastards!"
If the Tories are third in May the 2/3 of Tory MPs who did not vote for Kemi in 2024 will vote of no confidence her
So, they are going to blast away at their feet with high-calibre weaponry? Because what the Tories REALLY need is an extended period of instability. It having worked so well for them for the past 5 years.
Well, it's a view...
If the Tories are THIRD or worse in a second consecutive national election then they are headed for extinction while we keep FPTP, even Kemi would know she is done if that happens
I wonder if the Tories have the political intelligence to realise that the system that served them so well for the last 200 years is now about to destroy them. A death-bed conversion to a sensible voting system would be most welcome, but I don't see it happening just yet.
Indeed, if we had PR 20% of the vote would give the Tories 130 MPs, even 15% of the vote would give 100 Tory MPs, whereas under FPTP they are currently projected just 39% MPs with 18.6% of the vote.
Unless the Tories remain in the top 2, FPTP means their near extinction and likely eventual takeover by Reform with some One Nations going LD
Yebbut, it ensures that the next Government is going to have a large Reform component. Whereas FPTP ensures a degree of scrutiny that could massively unravel them.
There are governments with PR with rightwing nationalist and centre right parties now in them eg Italy, Sweden, New Zealand.
FPTP though ensures Reform are the main party of the right if and when they gobble up the Tories and the Tories basically just become Reform and extinct as a separate party once they become third or lower in the UK voteshare
It's hard to see how Starmer survives resignation of both his chief of staff and his director of comms within 24 hours of each other... feels like a No 10 operation in crisis and that this could be over quite quickly now.
I'm at a complete loss here. All the chatter is about how Starmer's resignation/eviction is imminent yet it just doesn't feel like it. Have the public even noticed? Feels like a Westminster bubble (and include the politics obsessed weirdos of PB in that bubble). Am I totally wrong?
The public get no say anyway until 2029, the average member of the public is probably talking about last night's Love Island or the Superbowl. It is of course a bubble issue and anyway Starmer is clearly not resigning, he has just sacked half his team and is bringing in some new aides
The public have a big say in 3 weeks and in Scotland and Wales plus locals in May
He was heckled for the second time in public and it hardly matters who is heckling - it is the impression it leaves
This crisis will not go away for the royal family
He was heckled by a member of Republic, videoed by Republic, in an organised stunt by Republic.
Please do not post or mention Republic propoganda on here and try and present it as by an ordinary member of the public
I will post whatever I like on here and on this, it was filmed live by Sky and commented on by their reporter
You will not post misleading posts please otherwise I will raise it with the Moderators, it was a Republic stunt and you presented it as an ordinary member of the public doing it.
I will say the same to any journalist on X who similarly falls for Republic propoganda as you did
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
They are not going to VONC Kemi and have no idea who might replace her.
The Tories are not South Park:
"Oh my God, they killed Kemi. The bastards!"
If the Tories are third in May the 2/3 of Tory MPs who did not vote for Kemi in 2024 will vote of no confidence her
So, they are going to blast away at their feet with high-calibre weaponry? Because what the Tories REALLY need is an extended period of instability. It having worked so well for them for the past 5 years.
Well, it's a view...
If the Tories are THIRD or worse in a second consecutive national election then they are headed for extinction while we keep FPTP, even Kemi would know she is done if that happens
Has hyufd defected to Reform?
No and I never would. If the Tories ceased to exist I would not join any party, I would likely be a swing voter between Reform and the LDs
It's hard to see how Starmer survives resignation of both his chief of staff and his director of comms within 24 hours of each other... feels like a No 10 operation in crisis and that this could be over quite quickly now.
I'm at a complete loss here. All the chatter is about how Starmer's resignation/eviction is imminent yet it just doesn't feel like it. Have the public even noticed? Feels like a Westminster bubble (and include the politics obsessed weirdos of PB in that bubble). Am I totally wrong?
The public get no say anyway until 2029, the average member of the public is probably talking about last night's Love Island or the Superbowl. It is of course a bubble issue and anyway Starmer is clearly not resigning, he has just sacked half his team and is bringing in some new aides
The public have a big say in 3 weeks and in Scotland and Wales plus locals in May
Not for any MPs, though yes if Labour come third it is SKS at risk, if the Tories are third it is Kemi facing a threat
He was heckled for the second time in public and it hardly matters who is heckling - it is the impression it leaves
This crisis will not go away for the royal family
He was heckled by a member of Republic, videoed by Republic, in an organised stunt by Republic.
Please do not post or mention Republic propoganda on here and try and present it as by an ordinary member of the public
I will post whatever I like on here and on this, it was filmed live by Sky and commented on by their reporter
You will not post misleading posts please otherwise I will raise it with the Moderators, it was a Republic stunt and you presented it as an ordinary member of the public doing it.
I will say the same to any journalist on X who similarly falls for Republic propoganda as you did
Tim Shipman: One way of replacing McSweeney would be to bring in Jonathan Powell as chief of staff, the role he performed for Tony Blair, but my understanding is he’s happier running foreign affairs.
Because that’s going really well…
Indeed
BEST trade deal with US on the planet Better deals with EU Opened dialogue with China Key role on Ukraine
Good header TSE. Yes the Tories are notorious for removing leaders who are badly beaten in local elections and/or trail in polls from Thatcher in 1990 to May in 2019 and Boris in 2022 and Truss after her deeply unpopular budget in late 2022.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
You keep spouting this, without telling us who is going to perform better than Kemi. (And not Cleverly - he wants a shot at London mayoral.)
Who are the Tories hiding away for some great unveiling? Dear God, I wish they were. It would give Leon someone to focus on beyond his Farage-frotting.
It will be Cleverly who can hold 2024 Tory voters better than Kemi has and win swing voters from Labour more than Kemi has and get anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats better than Kemi has. He isn't going to win London Mayor and anyway CCHQ are already now lining up Seb Coe for that.
Cleverly has shown no interest in defenestrating Kemi.
He doesn't need to, under Tory rules if a Tory leader loses a VONC they are removed automatically, no need for any leadership challenger unlike Labour
My opinion, FWIW, is that the Tories really needed a leader who looked "prime ministerial". That would help differentiate them from Reform, as few people relish the idea of Nige in No 10 (including quite possibly Nige himself if he has any self-awareness). The obvious choice was Cleverly which is why he got the backing of Tory MPs until they screwed up the leadership election by accidentally excluding him.
However, we are where we are, Kemi has shown some capacity for improvement and learning on the job, and the downside of yet another leadership election would likely outweigh any possible benefits. So Kemi it is. I really doubt there will be much appetite to remover her, however bad May turns out, and it's certainly not looking good. Her polling is improving but the Tory brand remains stuck in the mire, and the only solution to that is the passage of time. Keep grinning and bearing it.
Tory MPs will but if the Tories are 3rd in May most of them will be losing their seats anyway, even most tactical anti Reform votes would go to Labour not Tory candidates, so they would have no choice but to gamble and would remove Kemi and replace her with Cleverly.
As I said May is make or break for Kemi, the Tories have to get 2nd or she is gone
Can I just say in the kindest way possible continual repetitive posts become boring and lose credibility
You have made your point and maybe time to move on, please
With all due respect, how come his 'continual repetitive posts' are out of order, but yours ('Starmer must go') are not?
The calls for Starmer to go are widespread across this forum and outside
But the other day you were saying the problems the country/the Tories face is down to ditching their leaders so easily.
The last thing the conservative party needs is another leadership contest
As far as Starmer is concerned he has brought this on himself and by his own standards he should stand down
Adam Boulton has just said it is 50/50 chance he will go in the next 48 hours
The issue is this is similar to the Drake equation. What evidence is there for those numbers?
NEW: Keir Starmer vows to go on and makes clear he’s not resigning
Addressing No10 staff, the Prime Minister said they were united by a “driving purpose” of “public duty”.
Referring to the revelations about Mandelson, he said: “The thing that makes me most angry is the undermining of the belief that politics can be a force for good and can change lives.
“I have been absolutely clear that I regret the decision that I made to appoint Peter Mandelson. And I've apologised to the victims which is the right thing to do.”
If it was in German we would say it was part of the script from Downfall.
He was heckled for the second time in public and it hardly matters who is heckling - it is the impression it leaves
This crisis will not go away for the royal family
He was heckled by a member of Republic, videoed by Republic, in an organised stunt by Republic.
Please do not post or mention Republic propoganda on here and try and present it as by an ordinary member of the public
I will post whatever I like on here and on this, it was filmed live by Sky and commented on by their reporter
You will not post misleading posts please otherwise I will raise it with the Moderators, it was a Republic stunt and you presented it as an ordinary member of the public doing it.
I will say the same to any journalist on X who similarly falls for Republic propoganda as you did
Republicans are people too pal
These are Rupublicists, a small set of Republicans who care more about publicity than actual Republicanism, on which it generally transpires they have thought very little about.
'PM has just addressed Downing Street staff. Told them they were united by a “driving purpose” of “public duty”.
Referring to the revelations about Mandelson, he said: “The thing that makes me most angry is the undermining of the belief that politics can be a force for good and can change lives.
“I have been absolutely clear that I regret the decision that I made to appoint Peter Mandelson. And I've apologised to the victims which is the right thing to do.”
Paying tribute to Morgan McSweeney, he said: “I've known Morgan for eight years as a colleague and as a friend. We have run up and down every political football pitch that is across the country. We've been in every battle that we needed to be in together. Fighting that battle. “We changed the Labour Party together. We won a general election together. And none of that would have been possible without Morgan McSweeney. “His dedication, his commitment and his loyalty to our party and our country was second to none. And I want to thank him for his service.”
He highlighted the work of the government including tackling the cost of living and cutting NHS waiting lists. He continued: “In just a few months, we start the work of lifting half a million children out of poverty. A massive thing to do in this country because that means that lives will be changed. “For decades to come, children who otherwise wouldn't have fair chance and fair opportunity. Poverty holds children back like nothing else on earth. And so getting rid of child poverty opens up opportunities for so many.”
He concluded: “We must prove that politics can be a force for good. I believe it can. I believe it is. We go forward from here. We go with confidence as we continue changing the country.”
He was heckled for the second time in public and it hardly matters who is heckling - it is the impression it leaves
This crisis will not go away for the royal family
He was heckled by a member of Republic, videoed by Republic, in an organised stunt by Republic.
Please do not post or mention Republic propoganda on here and try and present it as by an ordinary member of the public
I will post whatever I like on here and on this, it was filmed live by Sky and commented on by their reporter
You will not post misleading posts please otherwise I will raise it with the Moderators, it was a Republic stunt and you presented it as an ordinary member of the public doing it.
I will say the same to any journalist on X who similarly falls for Republic propoganda as you did
He was heckled for the second time in public and it hardly matters who is heckling - it is the impression it leaves
This crisis will not go away for the royal family
He was heckled by a member of Republic, videoed by Republic, in an organised stunt by Republic.
Please do not post or mention Republic propoganda on here and try and present it as by an ordinary member of the public
I will post whatever I like on here and on this, it was filmed live by Sky and commented on by their reporter
You will not post misleading posts please otherwise I will raise it with the Moderators, it was a Republic stunt and you presented it as an ordinary member of the public doing it.
I will say the same to any journalist on X who similarly falls for Republic propoganda as you did
Thing is, Sky News need a cavalcade of 'events' (in the 'dear boy' sense of the word). They can't do the legendary 'there is no news today, so here is some music' thing. So they run stuff like this. Non-stop.
Please don't take this the wrong way, BigG, but Sky News is rotting your perception of the world. I don't know what the weather is like in North Wales, but in North East London, it's a reasonably nice late winter/very early spring day.
It's hard to see how Starmer survives resignation of both his chief of staff and his director of comms within 24 hours of each other... feels like a No 10 operation in crisis and that this could be over quite quickly now.
I'm at a complete loss here. All the chatter is about how Starmer's resignation/eviction is imminent yet it just doesn't feel like it. Have the public even noticed? Feels like a Westminster bubble (and include the politics obsessed weirdos of PB in that bubble). Am I totally wrong?
The public get no say anyway until 2029, the average member of the public is probably talking about last night's Love Island or the Superbowl. It is of course a bubble issue and anyway Starmer is clearly not resigning, he has just sacked half his team and is bringing in some new aides
The public have a big say in 3 weeks and in Scotland and Wales plus locals in May
Not for any MPs, though yes if Labour come third it is SKS at risk, if the Tories are third it is Kemi facing a threat
If I were a Tory I would be agreeing with you. Badenoch is very poor despite the ramping* she gets on here.
I am assuming Starmer is done by Wednesday and Badenoch is already claiming she is responsible for the scalp. Surely with Starmer's defenestration she has bought herself more time.
He was heckled for the second time in public and it hardly matters who is heckling - it is the impression it leaves
This crisis will not go away for the royal family
He was heckled by a member of Republic, videoed by Republic, in an organised stunt by Republic.
Please do not post or mention Republic propoganda on here and try and present it as by an ordinary member of the public
I will post whatever I like on here and on this, it was filmed live by Sky and commented on by their reporter
You will not post misleading posts please otherwise I will raise it with the Moderators, it was a Republic stunt and you presented it as an ordinary member of the public doing it.
I will say the same to any journalist on X who similarly falls for Republic propoganda as you did
Thing is, Sky News need a cavalcade of 'events' (in the 'dear boy' sense of the word). They can't do the legendary 'there is no news today, so here is some music' thing. So they run stuff like this. Non-stop.
Please don't take this the wrong way, BigG, but Sky News is rotting your perception of the world. I don't know what the weather is like in North Wales, but in North East London, it's a reasonably nice late winter/very early spring day.
Dear God don't start that debate too! We all know spring starts on 1st March...
He was heckled for the second time in public and it hardly matters who is heckling - it is the impression it leaves
This crisis will not go away for the royal family
He was heckled by a member of Republic, videoed by Republic, in an organised stunt by Republic.
Please do not post or mention Republic propoganda on here and try and present it as by an ordinary member of the public
I will post whatever I like on here and on this, it was filmed live by Sky and commented on by their reporter
You will not post misleading posts please otherwise I will raise it with the Moderators, it was a Republic stunt and you presented it as an ordinary member of the public doing it.
I will say the same to any journalist on X who similarly falls for Republic propoganda as you did
Thing is, Sky News need a cavalcade of 'events' (in the 'dear boy' sense of the word). They can't do the legendary 'there is no news today, so here is some music' thing. So they run stuff like this. Non-stop.
Please don't take this the wrong way, BigG, but Sky News is rotting your perception of the world. I don't know what the weather is like in North Wales, but in North East London, it's a reasonably nice late winter/very early spring day.
Nice day here as well but not sure about your attack on the integrity of Sky news
Quite obvious that Starmer's regime is basically in bunker mode. Aides getting out ahead of the eventual fall of the PM.
The question is, why are cabinet ministers not resigning on an hourly basis?
Two options I can think of:
1) Are they hurt by the Purnell experience in the late Brown days - and worry they'll end up as footnotes in political quiz nights. 2) Do they actually need the money? I'm guessing a good number of the current cabinet are on their highest ever salaries. Unlike most Tory governments, this lot don't seem to have the same widespread private sector experience and - frankly - paychecks to give freedom of operation.....
Purnell though had a Second Act: he went on to run the BBC iirc.
Of course given the Tories multi implosion rate they might all be sitting on their hands.
Waiting to see who new Comms team is and what Starmer says
I mean if he brings in Campbell and Paul Mason then the left and centre left and centre rump are suddenly all feeling apoeased
LOL. Campbell.
That would be the end of the career for most of the current Labour MPs.....
He was heckled for the second time in public and it hardly matters who is heckling - it is the impression it leaves
This crisis will not go away for the royal family
He was heckled by a member of Republic, videoed by Republic, in an organised stunt by Republic.
Please do not post or mention Republic propoganda on here and try and present it as by an ordinary member of the public
I will post whatever I like on here and on this, it was filmed live by Sky and commented on by their reporter
You will not post misleading posts please otherwise I will raise it with the Moderators, it was a Republic stunt and you presented it as an ordinary member of the public doing it.
I will say the same to any journalist on X who similarly falls for Republic propoganda as you did
Thing is, Sky News need a cavalcade of 'events' (in the 'dear boy' sense of the word). They can't do the legendary 'there is no news today, so here is some music' thing. So they run stuff like this. Non-stop.
Please don't take this the wrong way, BigG, but Sky News is rotting your perception of the world. I don't know what the weather is like in North Wales, but in North East London, it's a reasonably nice late winter/very early spring day.
Nice day here as well but not sure about your attack on the integrity of Sky news
I think ALL the 24 h news streams have the same issue, whether its TV or radio, BBC or Sky. Its why we have so many talking heads spouting nonsense. I'm firmly of the opinion that the old days of news at 6 and 10 and nothing more were the best.
Tim Shipman: One way of replacing McSweeney would be to bring in Jonathan Powell as chief of staff, the role he performed for Tony Blair, but my understanding is he’s happier running foreign affairs.
Because that’s going really well…
Indeed
BEST trade deal with US on the planet Better deals with EU Opened dialogue with China Key role on Ukraine
He was heckled for the second time in public and it hardly matters who is heckling - it is the impression it leaves
This crisis will not go away for the royal family
He was heckled by a member of Republic, videoed by Republic, in an organised stunt by Republic.
Please do not post or mention Republic propoganda on here and try and present it as by an ordinary member of the public
I will post whatever I like on here and on this, it was filmed live by Sky and commented on by their reporter
You will not post misleading posts please otherwise I will raise it with the Moderators, it was a Republic stunt and you presented it as an ordinary member of the public doing it.
I will say the same to any journalist on X who similarly falls for Republic propoganda as you did
Republicans are people too pal
Well so are Labour or Tory or LD or Reform activists, you don't say they are ordinary members of the public though do you!
I doubt there has been a more depressing time since WW2
We have a government in crisis led by a leader who has no future though may hang on just continuing the daily pyscho drama
We await enormous volumns of e mails and whats app messages during Mandelson's time as ambassador with unknown consquences for other labour mps and advisors and unrest with politics by the public
The real danger is the public voting for Reform or the Greens in a mass protest vote and electing extreme right or left mps wholly unsuitable for public office
More Epstein files will be realeased as we watch each breaking news fearing what next
Indeed we could see untold problems with Trump over revelations in our dealing through Mandelson
I would suggest labour need to lance the boil now and demand Starmer resigns and install a temporary leader to stabiise the party with either John Healey or Hilary Benn being a good call
Goodness knows how the bond markets will react and letting things drift is not an option
I had hopes that Starmer would do as he said before the election to promote integrity and accountability into our politics but here we are just over 18 months later with the most unpopular PM in recent hiistory
This is not about point scoring but a deep desire for labour to steady the ship for all our sakes as anything else is unthinkable
May wise minds in labour led by many of the women who are so aggrieved prevail
Good grief Big_G is your memory ok?
What about: - Rationing persisting on into the 1950s - Suez Crisis 1956 - Three-day week & power cuts 1974 - IMF bail out 1976 - Winter of Discontent 1979 - Covid crisis 2020
To name but a few?
Reflects the polling though, with older people spiralling into a deep and irrational melancholy. Lots of free time + social media is a not a good combination.
You can critise me as much as you like and disagree with whether this is the worst crisis since WW2 but what is the problem with my suggestion on how to address it ?
According to Sky journalist this morning some want Starmer to continue to May and take responsibilty for the likely polling disaster but other mps are saying they cannot allow Mandelson and Epstein to continue and need to take action
I have no problem with people disagreing but suggesting older people spiral into deep and irrational melancholy is pure 'ageism'
No, it's not. There has been a dramatic divergence in sentiment, and this is going to cause us massive issues because so much of the country's disposable income is now held by older people:
That is nothing to do with your ageism comment
Disagree by all means but do not descend into ageism
It's not ageism to point to a real difference between age groups. The data is there.
Why are older people much more negative now? Is it simply a partisan thing, where they're unhappy with a Labour government? Is it the media they're consuming?
There's genuinely something going on.
I have a sad answer
Older people can remember when things were better. 20-30 years ago. When the land was calmer and happier. Before the epic levels of migration
Much of Western Europe has been economically stagnant for two decades while importing millions of people from alien cultures in a disastrous experiment gone horribly wrong
Older people are old enough to recall the days before the experiment.
The biggest amount of non European immigration to the UK actually came under the Attlee government. The Blair government was mainly Eastern European immigration which Brexit and the Boris wave reversed to non European immigration again until Sunak and Cleverly tightened the rules
This is the most ludicrous nonsense. You surely realise this
I know you are eccentric and live in HYUFD-world but surely even there facts are facts. And what you have just said is factually and totally wrong
It was the British Nationality Act 1948 more than any other Act that set the immigration changes of the last century
This is the problem that Enoch Powell referred to in almost every interview he gave on immigration, that until recently there had been no way of distinguishing members of the Commonwealth from British people living in Britain as far as right to live in Britain was concerned. When travel to Britain en masse was nigh on impossible, there was no problem with immigration, but once air travel became commonplace, that meant tens of millions of people were entitled to come and live here, and what was once a hypothetical possibility became reality. That was why he suggested paying immigrants to return to their place of birth, he saw it as the only way of rectifying an oversight that changed the country in a way no one had thought of.
The 1962 Act tightened the rules to require work permits but yes Powell thought even that too loose
The same Enoch Powell who went round the Caribbean encouraging people to come and work in the UK...
He did, on short term permits though I think
When Powell was health secretary recruiting Jamaican nurses in the early 1960s they had automatic right of entry so wouldn't have needed work permits. They were British citizens for most of his tenure in the job. Just another opportunist politician treating black workers as expendable and taking white voters for for fools. Utterly vile man.
Labour are f*****. First Mandelson then then Labour Trade Envoy Andrew Windsor.
SKS made Andrew a trade envoy, don’t remember that happening
And anything before 2024 is old news and part of the mission since 1990 to give Prince Andrew a purpose in life. At least Henry knew what the long term looked like and buggered off to the States at the first opportunity
Tim Shipman: One way of replacing McSweeney would be to bring in Jonathan Powell as chief of staff, the role he performed for Tony Blair, but my understanding is he’s happier running foreign affairs.
Because that’s going really well…
Indeed
BEST trade deal with US on the planet Better deals with EU Opened dialogue with China Key role on Ukraine
Comments
To lose 1 comms chief in 18 months might be considered unfortunate.
The flypast at the end of the anthem was good though, right on time and good camera work to catch the planes emerging from the cloud.
https://x.com/throwbackpats/status/2020641626104999938
https://x.com/i/status/2020816634940649958
Them's the breaks.
NEW: Keir Starmer vows to go on and makes clear he’s not resigning
Addressing No10 staff, the Prime Minister said they were united by a “driving purpose” of “public duty”.
Referring to the revelations about Mandelson, he said: “The thing that makes me most angry is the undermining of the belief that politics can be a force for good and can change lives.
“I have been absolutely clear that I regret the decision that I made to appoint Peter Mandelson. And I've apologised to the victims which is the right thing to do.”
Hence why Starmer will bust a gut and then bust another one to get to the other side of this - past the byelection and the locals and through to the summer. At that point, if the results are as bad as feared he can exit with a narrative of “I’ve listened, it’s time for somebody else to take this forward”. If things surprise on the upside, otoh, he can carry on into 27/28 and exit with a more satisfying narrative of “I don’t wish to serve a second term, too tired, so now’s the time to make the change”. Both of those outcomes are a thousand times better than resigning over Epstein/Mandelson.
So, no SKS resignation coming until May at the earliest and possibly not this year at all. That's how I’m seeing things. It happens to suit my book but please don’t let that prejudice you. Likewise that this comes from the poster who commented on the last photo of the late Queen, the day before she died, that "she's looking well". Because by that precedent Sir Keir will be at the lectern in Downing St this evening.
Its not going away for the royals
The question is, why are cabinet ministers not resigning on an hourly basis?
Two options I can think of:
1) Are they hurt by the Purnell experience in the late Brown days - and worry they'll end up as footnotes in political quiz nights.
2) Do they actually need the money? I'm guessing a good number of the current cabinet are on their highest ever salaries. Unlike most Tory governments, this lot don't seem to have the same widespread private sector experience and - frankly - paychecks to give freedom of operation.....
Seems to me that even his legacy play is snookered. He might as well chuck the towel in now and at least resign with some dignity.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/king-charles-heckled-andrew-epstein-5HjdS4D_2/
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
One thing I think is being missed. With the new talk of a caretaker PM - which is real - the pool of possible replacements for Starmer (all-be-it for the short term) has widened significantly.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2020829068263109054
The fact Reform are not leading in London unlike most of the UK also means Reform won't win most seats in London as they will in most of the rest of the seats up in England and maybe Wales in May. So Westminster and Barnet still possible gains for the Tories even if they lose some seats to Reform in outer suburban London
This crisis will not go away for the royal family
Ref 25 Lab 24 Con 23
Is a rather different 3rd place to
Ref 35 Lab 20 Con 15
Dmitry Grozoubinski
@explaintrade.com
No. 10 communications were being directed!?
https://bsky.app/profile/explaintrade.com/post/3megcpatucs2c
Rob Ford
@robfordmancs.bsky.social
I have today been informed that, despite personal assurances to the contrary, the Green party have once again used my image and misrepresented my words on a second leaflet circulated in Gorton and Denton ahead of the by-election. I have now lodged an official complaint with the returning officer.
https://bsky.app/profile/robfordmancs.bsky.social/post/3megdsc342k2o
She flags up Westminster and Wandsworth as the big 2 to reclaim. Id say Barnet more likely than Wandsy and Enfield one to watch but time will tell
Waiting to see who new Comms team is and what Starmer says
I mean if he brings in Campbell and Paul Mason then the left and centre left and centre rump are suddenly all feeling apoeased
Unless the Tories remain in the top 2, FPTP means their near extinction and likely eventual takeover by Reform with some One Nations going LD
https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
Please do not post or mention Republic propoganda on here and try and present it as by an ordinary member of the public
As far as Starmer is concerned he has brought this on himself and by his own standards he should stand down
Adam Boulton has just said it is 50/50 chance he will go in the next 48 hours
He really needs to get a decent comms director.
Noise is noise. I mean opinium had the LDs losing a quarter of their support in a fortnight. Spoiler - they havent
What more can calamity do
That simply isn’t sustainable, the Tories and Labour need to fix our electoral system so 50% of voters have picked their preferred candidate.
Yes that will mean general elections are sorted by 5pm Friday rather than 7am Friday morning but it’s got to be better than what we are otherwise going to see in 2028/9
Stephen Bush
@stephenkb.bsky.social
Indeed! People keep talking about 'oh, the soft left this', 'oh, his rivals in Downing Street that'. No, it's not the soft left on the backbenches or the Blairites in the Cabinet or No 10. It's the 'alliance of MPs who can count and would like to remain MPs'.
Hannah Dawson
@fairlysadpanda.bsky.social
Replied to Stephen Bush
The All Party Parliamentary Group on Jesus H Christ Lads I Just Got Back From A Social With My Local Party And They Want Kier's Head On A Plate And Half Of Them Have Joined The Greens And I Just Saw Our Latest Canvas Returns
https://bsky.app/profile/stephenkb.bsky.social/post/3megfqu7w7c25
https://x.com/i/status/2020834338628358566
Fishguard probably Plaid vs Reform
Bradford (Keighley and Ilkley) should be a Tory hold, if it isnt they are really struggling
Peterborough (NW Cambs actually) is being hit hard by Ref and Con and Lab will have residual strength. Paul Bristow has been campaigning here so clearly Tories want it and narrowly won the area in the mayorals but Ref maybe narrow favourite?
Those who are most adamant that Starmer Must Go Now will like his successor even less, whenever and whoever that successor is.
Elon do your stuff!
Am I totally wrong?
A very strange appointment to say the least.
He may of worked for Blair but then he sold his soul to the devil.
If Labour are cute they could look left to someone like Mason or too the main stream news media. A communicator of the highest order.
Pippa Crerar
He'd appease the left and is spiky and committed
FPTP though ensures Reform are the main party of the right if and when they gobble up the Tories and the Tories basically just become Reform and extinct as a separate party once they become third or lower in the UK voteshare
I will say the same to any journalist on X who similarly falls for Republic propoganda as you did
BEST trade deal with US on the planet
Better deals with EU
Opened dialogue with China
Key role on Ukraine
Compare and contrast with the past 14 years
They are on a trip to Saudi and this is their first public about the files
Asked why Tim Allan has really quit, a government source simply replies: "He was Useless"
https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/2020822115478380617?s=20
Referring to the revelations about Mandelson, he said: “The thing that makes me most angry is the undermining of the belief that politics can be a force for good and can change lives.
“I have been absolutely clear that I regret the decision that I made to appoint Peter Mandelson. And I've apologised to the victims which is the right thing to do.”
Paying tribute to Morgan McSweeney, he said: “I've known Morgan for eight years as a colleague and as a friend. We have run up and down every political football pitch that is across the country. We've been in every battle that we needed to be in together. Fighting that battle.
“We changed the Labour Party together. We won a general election together. And none of that would have been possible without Morgan McSweeney.
“His dedication, his commitment and his loyalty to our party and our country was second to none. And I want to thank him for his service.”
He highlighted the work of the government including tackling the cost of living and cutting NHS waiting lists. He continued: “In just a few months, we start the work of lifting half a million children out of poverty. A massive thing to do in this country because that means that lives will be changed.
“For decades to come, children who otherwise wouldn't have fair chance and fair opportunity. Poverty holds children back like nothing else on earth. And so getting rid of child poverty opens up opportunities for so many.”
He concluded: “We must prove that politics can be a force for good. I believe it can. I believe it is. We go forward from here. We go with confidence as we continue changing the country.”
https://x.com/BethRigby/status/2020825140557156539?s=20
Please don't take this the wrong way, BigG, but Sky News is rotting your perception of the world. I don't know what the weather is like in North Wales, but in North East London, it's a reasonably nice late winter/very early spring day.
I am assuming Starmer is done by Wednesday and Badenoch is already claiming she is responsible for the scalp. Surely with Starmer's defenestration she has bought herself more time.
* Ooh Mrs!
That would be the end of the career for most of the current Labour MPs.....
https://news.sky.com/liveblog-webview/epstein-files-latest-andrew-sent-epstein-trade-details-while-special-envoy-email-suggests-13501106
And for @HYUFD it was Sky who report the heckling as a member of the public as you will read on their reporf
And anything before 2024 is old news and part of the mission since 1990 to give Prince Andrew a purpose in life. At least Henry knew what the long term looked like and buggered off to the States at the first opportunity