One party has form for ousting leaders, the other less so – politicalbetting.com
One party has form for ousting leaders, the other less so – politicalbetting.com
As I write this it feels like that Sir Keir Starmer is more screwed than Bonnie Blue and that we are approaching the end of his premiership soon but history suggests otherwise.
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Now the King's Evil Counsellor is deposed we shall be govern'd well.
https://bsky.app/profile/davidallengreen.bsky.social/post/3meeauqdsnk2k
What about:
- Rationing persisting on into the 1950s
- Suez Crisis 1956
- Three-day week & power cuts 1974
- IMF bail out 1976
- Winter of Discontent 1979
- Covid crisis 2020
To name but a few?
(It is an Ikon of Holy Michael the Archangel by Kallinikos, from Stavrovouni Monastery, Holy Cross Mountain in Cyprus). It is dated top the first 3rd of the 20C. I'm not sure what those calf-bindings are about.
I came across it on a liturgy website called Labarum maintained by a friend-acquaintance who is a retired Military Chaplain.
Plus those who think they should be running the country instead.
Falklands War 1982
Various Gulf Wars
Black Wednesday
Global Economic Crash
Truss Economic crash
20 years next September since Northern Rock and we STILL remember
I think Starmer is an honourable man and I have no doubt he is a LABOUR man.
Without McSweeney I think we will see a significant change in his mindset.
I believe he will by now have decided himself, for his family ; for his Party, and the Country in that order that it is time to let go.
The timescale though I believe is what he will want to and try to dictate and he will hope that he can sway opinion to that option.
I think he will personally want to take responsibility for by election , council and Welsh and Scottish losses, that way he gives his successor a cleaner slate.
I also believe that he will want a timetable that helps Labour to take time and to find the best option and to ensure the hard fought economic gains that WILL BE SHOWING LATER in the year are maintained and not lost and I think for that reason he will by the end of this week make a formal announcement and seek to be setting in motion a departure by early June.
Timing wise he takes the flak, timing wise he may actually improve Labour results if a small % believe they are voting for representatives "post Starmer"
The election of a new Labour Leader and therefore PM just before the summer recess gives all time to "bed in" and to hit the ground running in September.
My personal belief is that he will prefer given her loyalty Rayner to Burnham or Streeting. He can't ot won't of course endorse anyone.
Its key I think that Darren Jones is installed as Chancellor, and most key roles stay in place with the exception of Reeves (I believe time will show her to have been far better economically but not politically than she is given credit for) and Lammy (who is useless) that many personnel will continue progress being made. What Streeting ends up with I'm not sure, he has an uber marginal seat besides!
My god. My heart goes out to you @Cyclefree
https://x.com/scottishlabour/status/2020571695614984572?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
So in the interests of balance I'll have a go:
1) Economic growth is positive. It is weak, but positive, and likely to trend upwards over the next few years - at least on a per capita basis because...
2) Net migration is being brought under control. It's come down a lot and will move further. There's no doubt the unsustainably high period (almost 1 million per year) would have put a strain on capacity in places.
3) Inflation will soon be back at its 2% target and will likely remain there for the foreseeable future. There is a reason high inflation features heavily in the economic 'misery index'. Moving back to stable prices will help.
4) Unemployment really did not rise very high during the period of monetary tightening. It should fall back down we low inflation allows rates to drift lower still.
I won't deny there's lots more negative to say, and much of the above has very little to do with the government's actions but just a part of the economic cycle, but the idea that we're in some unique crisis is clearly wrong.
Secondly youth and graduate unemployment is sky high and shows little signs of dropping
But the media amplification is a harmful mutation.
Monday morning and McSweeney, with his Glasman and Mandelson influences, is gone. A faint chance of Labour setting out it's own vision rather than mimicking Reform.
The criss-cross bits are leg bindings from Greek tradition, a "Kynodesme", as seen on I think the Evzones, who are the ceremonial Greek Presidential Guard (the ones with the prominent toes on their shoes), as seen here:
https://www.thisisathens.org/arts-entertainment/sightseeing/the-greek-evzones
I'm sure there's a Mark Felton about it somewhere.
According to Sky journalist this morning some want Starmer to continue to May and take responsibilty for the likely polling disaster but other mps are saying they cannot allow Mandelson and Epstein to continue and need to take action
I have no problem with people disagreing but suggesting older people spiral into deep and irrational melancholy is pure 'ageism'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/scorecard/e-233413
https://www.susanhigginbotham.com/posts/680-years-ago-today-in-hereford/amp/
As I write this it feels like that Sir Keir Starmer is more screwed than Bonnie Blue
I don't get it. What is to be gained by this?
I can understand it when it comes to immigrants from South America. There's a racist logic to it, even if I don't like it. But even judged by its own logic I can't understand this.
https://www.irishtimes.com/world/us/2026/02/09/absolute-hell-irish-man-with-valid-us-work-permit-held-by-ice-since-september/
So let’s play the game. Setting aside actual policies and partisan bias, is there anyone at all in British politics who seems like they could be a better prime minister than Starmer?
Yes, clearly. Burnham, Davey, Badenoch, Jenrick and many others - they would not make Starmer’s terrible and inexplicable decisions. Like Chagos. Like the stupid u turns. Like appointing Mandelson
The better question is this: is there anyone out there who would make a GOOD prime minister - up there in the upper ranks. Able to pull Britain out of its depressing rut?
That’s much harder. Farage is probably the most skilful politician in the land but I seriously doubt he’s got economic policies to save us
Anyone else?
We will never see it's like again.
(Although....Angela Rayner...?)
Disagree by all means but do not descend into ageism
A by election soon looks like being Reform v Green with Lab, Con and LD as onlookers. The last event was PC v Reform with Lab, Con and LD as onlookers.
Internationally, with luck we have headed off a USA invasion of NATO territory. For now.
Why are older people much more negative now? Is it simply a partisan thing, where they're unhappy with a Labour government? Is it the media they're consuming?
There's genuinely something going on.
I know she was popular with the membership, but was forced to resign only a couple of months ago over her inability to keep her own household finances in order.
"Never take a gamble you're not prepared to lose."
Wise words as I'm sure the punters would agree. Many have explained Starmer's decision to Mandelson as an understandable gamble, given the occupant if the White House. But it's striking that Starmer has been not at all prepared for losing that gamble.
Among his many failings he's shown no ability to anticipate the future.
Older people can remember when things were better. 20-30 years ago. When the land was calmer and happier. Before the epic levels of migration
Much of Western Europe has been economically stagnant for two decades while importing millions of people from alien cultures in a disastrous experiment gone horribly wrong
Older people are old enough to recall the days before the experiment.
Yes, it was me.
"The PM's unsuitable and resigned. Quick, let's replace him with someone who was unsuitable as Deputy PM and had to resign!"
It's in keeping with the backbenchers' juvenile approach to spending. They don't want to actually balance books and run the economy, they just want to throw sweeties to voters so they can feel better about themselves. And left wing economic tomfoolery is very much Rayner's approach.
Keir and Present Danger
Sky News has a greater duty to its owner (to minimise losses) than it does to its viewers (to accurately reflect the world around us). The gap between them and that Tiktoker lying for clicks is smaller than we want to admit.
It's more than rose-tinted spectacles at this point.
If I had to draw an analogy for a period, it would be Mrs Thatcher in approximately 1981, where everything looks gloomy and nothing seems to work.
For PMs, I can see no credible alternative to SKS in any UK party - maybe Davey but he has no sufficiently substantial base, or Yvette Cooper or even John Healey. I think SKS should hold on (I may be caught out on that!), because even given his timidity the terms of political trade are shifting due to things he has done - it is down to whether the benefits cut through and emerge sufficiently.
If I was obliged to choose a PM (with free hand to pick the ministerial team and create peers to fill the gaps) from current MPs, I would look at Stride, Benn, Cooper (Y). Worth a look: Darren Jones.
From a voters perspective, this is hard. The toughest job of the PM as CEO is team creation, building, retention, and being the place and person where the buck stops. This, unlike rhetoric, is a mostly invisible skill, and rare.
The dismal nail in the Starmer coffin is that today he is PM, yesterday McS resigned because he gave advice (which, look carefully, McS never describes as wrong), while Starmer the decider of the matter has not resigned. The killer in McS resignation is that he described the decision, not the advice, as wrong. Starmer's decision.
He is addressing all Labour mps at 6pm
Katie Lam has something about her. But maybe it’s just coz I agree with her on a lot of stuff. She is courageous, I guess
Mahmood? She talks the talk but if you look at her record she is a clueless woke apparatchik with extra prayer mats
God it’s a bleak prospect. From left to right
Blaming Starmer for not getting Jimmy Lai released
The Pritti whose Government were in power in 2020 when he was released and did precisely Jack shit for years because they won't communicate with China.
She should have done her job at the time with Boris, Liz and Rishi.
Starmer tried, better to have tried and failed than never to have tried at all
Trumps tried no success
May be he will succeed when he goes to China
Clearly the coming man is Kit Malthouse. Lump on, punters, lump on!
Ask @DavidL - he's prosecuting historic cases non-stop. And they aren't the perpetrators you are looking for.
But, occasionally, (eg Truman, Thatcher, Churchill, Zelensky), you get the reverse.
Be gone you odious cancer and let La Deluge in
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/articles/sexualoffencesprevalenceandtrendsenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2025
For "occurrence of rape", you need the Crime Survey of England and Wales, which does not show such an increase.
Bad by election performances can also see a Tory party leader removed, as IDS discovered after Brent East in 2003.
Labour however are sentimental with their leaders, even Foot and Brown and Ed Miliband left at a time of their choosing. Blair was not really forgiven by some on the left for not being socialist enough and winning multiple general elections anyway and going to war in Iraq but he still was not formally ousted just pressured to handover to the great Brown. The only time Labour MPs turned on a Labour leader was Corbyn but Labour members re elected him anyway in 2016.
So yes it is Kemi who is in the greatest danger. If the Tories are third on NEV and seats won in May Tory MPs won't hesitate to VONC Kemi and replace her with Kemi. Starmer though is more likely to be able to go at a time of his choosing, even if Labour were third in May it is not certain Rayner could get the 81 Labour MPs she needs to nominate her to challenge him
Sic Transit Gloria Angliae
Our over-regulated and over-taxed economy simply cannot respond to increases in demand because its supply side has been crippled by the government, and, just as important, everybody knows that the moment any sector shows signs of dynamism, the government will be there to strip it and shovel the cash to its client base of welfare and civil service layabouts.
So no matter how good fiscal and monetary policy is, growth will remain very weak compared to what it should be until we have a public sector that stops treating the private sector like an ATM.
We all know how that experiment ends, but the worry is that collectively the Labour MPs don’t.
The bond market reaction to Liz Truss, will be nothing compared to its reaction to an Angela or Ed_is_crap PM.
Can’t see either the MPs or the members taking the safe option of a John Healey or Mel Stride, in which case is it better for Starmer to hang on as long as he can before calling an election in the autumn?