Rage against the machine – charting the rise of outsider parties – politicalbetting.com
Rage against the machine – charting the rise of outsider parties – politicalbetting.com
A moment I remember from the 2015 election is when a TV interviewer was asking a series of vox pops and one respondent replied he was deciding between UKIP and the Greens.
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I would say that Ed does ask questions about Social services and Carers as well.
Question: as the big insider parties have ground themselves to a halt, mired in scandal and political inertia, why is an outsider party such a bad idea...
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1FUPvhhz8i/
Farage is now leading as an outsider but his attracting defections of ex Tory Cabinet ministers is making him more of an insider to try and prepare a Reform government which will turn off voters wanting an anti establishment outsider to vote for. Polanski and the Greens are still polling less than half what Corbyn Labour got in 2017
I also think there is a missing option 2.1: Reform/Green are able to radically transform the country and make the elites bend to the Government’s will (and it all goes horribly wrong, a la Truss).
There are pros and cons for Labour with Rayner.
On one side, she is divisive, she has baggage with the tax affairs, and she hasn’t displayed tremendous competence in the short space of time that she was a minister.
On the other side, she is tactically savvy (see yesterday), she commands loyalty and is in tune with her party grassroots, she has a good story, and she can at least sell Labour values in a way Starmer desperately struggles with.
The thing about Rayner taking over mid-term is that acting in a hurry without a mandate destroyed Liz Truss, and I’m doubtful the money markets will have much truck with a significant pivot left on the economic side. That is why I very firmly suspect that monetary and fiscal policy would stay broadly the same under a Rayner government (maybe a few sprinklings of wealth taxes here and there as a sop for the base). Her premiership would be more a change of emphasis and a more confident articulation of Labour values. The prize would be winning a full term in 2029. A united left would stand a much better chance in that election than Labour do currently.
I wouldn’t vote for a Rayner led party, but then I’m not the target demographic. I can see merit to the change. The Labour Party desperately needs to work out what it is for and to sell a vision to the country. Starmer has shown himself completely incapable of doing so. And indeed with the dark lord of New Labour out of the picture, that centrist vision of a social democratic middle road Labour Party that doesn’t believe in much but power isn’t looking hale and healthy right now.
It’s all very well to say - “we won’t be dictated to by the bond markets… ”. But none of them are saying the other bit “… and we will raise taxes to stop borrowing. Immediately”.
Did I see a #mouse run under door, just now, during @Peston interview with @KemiBadenoch?
https://x.com/AlastairBruce_/status/2019186505659330923
None of those barriers are there now. He appointed people explicitly who would have followed his orders in 2020.
You're repeating the error McConnell made that because his attempts to overturn failed there is no worry about someone trying again more competently.
Corrected link at Owen Jones.. he's not wrong...
FPT: If Labour does apppoint Rayner, they have finally caught up with the Tories in having a female leader (albeit it has taken half a century to catch up).
The markets will be wary of her "left-wing credentials", which will likely box in what she can actually achieve. Not sure if that will satisfy those MPs putting their faith in her.
As an aside, I think the LibDems will need to move on from Davey. I reckon Daisy Cooper will be leading the LibDems within 6 months of PM Ange...
Reliance simply on being outsiders alone would be recipe for disaster, just as presuming insider ones cannot cock up would be.
There are two dimensions to being an outsider party - the lead identifies one, the extent to which the party wants to change or overthrow the system. Here, it is fair that the LibDems' moderate image doesn't fully fit (although the Liberals have always had a radical wing, and on issues such as constitutional reform the Liberals and LDs have always campaigned to change almost all aspects of our previous governance, including fair voting, devolution, federalism, independent local government, and an elected second chamber).
But the second dimension is more simple - you can pose as an outsider party if you are untainted by power. Which, prior to 2010, the LDs were, and they brought to national politics a long-honed ability to be effective campaigners against whoever was running their local councils. Look at Liberal and LD campaign messaging and positioning themselves against "the two big parties" was always central (cf. 'Don't blame me, I voted Liberal', 'the real fight is for Britain', etc.)
The 2010 coalition severely hit the LD's ability to pose as outsiders - both because they'd been in power and hence shared responsibility for specific outcomes delivered by that government (tuition fees!), and because, once you've been in office, it's much harder to persuade voters that, if only you were "given a chance", "everything would be different". It's noticeable that what would have been a reliable core LD vote of 10%+ across most of the country is now reduced to a bedrock closer to 5%.
Hence those voters looking for dreamers to deliver some sort of utopia moved on to UKIP, and now the Greens and Reform.
It and it's predecessors have been used to shift the overtime window right. It's policies are promoted by most of the mainstream media. while the Greens are portrayed as loonies.
On mainland UK the lurch to the right and insular nationalism seems to be an English problem, Scottish and Welsh nationalism being for devolution within the EU.
I disagree, in the 2000s the LDs were the outsider party. They were the pox on both your houses, none of the above, party.
Yes their leadership were not that, but a very large chunk of their voters were.
The Coalition fractured that. More than tuition fees, it was the very act of going into Government that destroyed what for many LD voters were the LDs very nature of being outsiders and making them just another establishment party.
I remain firmly of the belief (both anecdotally and from data) that a large chunk of the 2015 UKIP vote were ex-LD voters.
And Test Matches must start on Thursdays
I have packed all my England rugby shirts for the occasion.
What does the line up of MPs look like?
Perhaps Lee Anderson is an outsider.
The rest are last year's committee of the Tunbridge Wells Conservative Party Branch.
Will Stancil's key argument on this is that if you look on people's perceptions of their economy (he's looking at the US which undoubtedly had a strong economy), not only do they not match the economic data, which generally says things are pretty good, but they don't match their own expressed experiences. If you ask people, "what is the economy like", they'll say it's horrendous, but if you ask them how they're personally doing, they mostly say, "pretty good". Why do they think this? Because of the way they're getting information.
Talking up negatives has always been a feature of media, but it seems to have got turbocharged with social media, which for whatever reason is really conducive to doomerism of all kinds.
It's not impossible, but it has risks we ignore through belief in easy solutions.
The big question is whether having so many of the politicians who just failed us last time around, now in prominence within Reform, will significantly dent Reform's ability to try and fool us that if only we elected them, it would all be better...?
F1: early wibble about midfield chaps who may do well: Gasly, Bearman, and Alonso (who may have an outside shot of competing for the title):
https://medium.com/@rkilner/f1-2026-gasly-bearman-and-alonso-to-shine-ff2241616abd
Many on the left liked to sum Labour and LD as combined "progressive" votes, but they are not and never were interchangeable.
In LD/Lab marginals the LDs would appeal as the "stop Labour" party and in LD/Tory marginals they would appeal as the "stop the Tories" party.
By being in Coalition with either, you alienate the others you were trying to appeal to.
Wales voted for Brexit just like England, Reform are polling higher in Scotland now than in London
backing the Trump attempted
coup in 2021 that stopped it not Pence, judges or lawyers as
the armed forces take an oath to the constitution not the President
One development since social media came along is the return of grand global narratives. Movements that take inspiration from similar ideas (and events) in other countries. We see that all the time in MAGA world and eco world. We saw it during Covid about masks and vaccines. Enhanced of course by the bot army.
That enables outsider parties to position themselves as part of something bigger. Just as a startup communist outfit somewhere in Latin America could get itself a political head start during the Cold War.
Of interest to me is the wider reason for the general sense of ennui that pervades not just the UK but the whole West (and, as a far as I know the world).
I would contend that on most measures the population of the UK is on average better off than it was 20 years ago. But no one 'feels' that way for some reason.
Most of their councillors are ex Tories or defectors directly from them. They have 3 Tory cabinet members and a minister in their partly party of 8, their backers are ex Tory backers.
Reform are the blob with a shit christmas cracker 'tash on
Greens are outsiders but nowhere near winning in the polls and if YouGov, Find Out Now and Ashcroft are overstating them, nowhere near over 20 seats with everyone else
DavosEpstein Island.I think you chart the start of all this back the cynicism/spin of New Labour and the lies told over Iraq. Then there was the financial crash followed juxtaposed with Duck Island - Living standards for millions have declined ever since!
A huge message was sent that people really had had enough with the Brexit vote and what did Wesminster do? Spent years trying to cancel it. Then we had Boris, Covid and lockdown. The Tories lost the plot post Cameron and were in a downward spiral for 8 years. In the end the public were just so sick of them they wanted them out at all costs but there was never any enthusiasm for continuity Blair/New Labour in the form of Starmer so Labour's collapse perhaps shouldn't surprise us.
I'm not sure how things can be made better at this point. They probably can't be. There's no question to which Zak Polanski or Nigel Farage as PM are the answer.
I like Kemi and I'll be voting Con at the next election as long as she's leader but I have no expectation of the Conservatives staging a recovery in one Parliamentary cycle.
It's not impossible the next election will see the death of both Labour and Conservatives. REF government, LIB Opposition and Greens taking third party status?
I've just come across Amelia, a figment of someone's imagination.
Insider/outsider: outsiders want to replace the current insiders
Revisionist/status quo: revisionists want to change how the system works, status quo wants to keep how it works. (This terminology is from Perun, I guess it's used by the military).
The Lib Dems have classically always been outsiders but not really revisionist. Reform: Brexit was a clear revisionist policy. Otherwise many are technically revisionist, in the sense of wanting to revert to an older status quo where many regulations and equality rules are rolled back. But despite claiming to be a working class party , my sense is that it's run for the landlord/pensioner class and increasingly so as more Tories defect. There will be a fight if they get into power about how revisionist they want to be.
Greens: outsider, and also revisionist for idealist reasons; the question here will be if it achieves power, will it's politicians have enough determination to stick to their ideals and execute real change, or will their idealism fade.
That's in terms of the parties; what about the voters? I think many are sick of the current parties and so willing to see outsiders take a turn. Many also feel that the current system is failing and willing to take a chance on changing it, but it's not clear how committed they are to any particular change.
The 2008 financial crisis then dented our faith in capitalism to deliver stability and growth, yet still without any serious alternative, following which the super-rich used their power and leverage to largely protect their own position, while everyone else's real incomes stagnated.
You might also add in the psychological challenge to assumed western dominance that the rise of China (India, Brazil, Nigeria etc.) poses to democracies, especially to the US, faced with no longer being sole top dog, and casting doubt on whether the Chinese might have a better way, taking a long-term view, of steering their economy.
https://x.com/lizziejohnsonnn/status/2019083204133609846?s=20
I saw a mouse! Where? There on the stair. There on the stair, right there! A little mouse with clogs on, well I declare .....
BREAKING:
Labour backbenchers are now publicly warning Sir Keir Starmer that his own future will be in doubt unless he sacks his chief of staff Morgan McSweeney
It's effectively an ultimatum that's being echoed across the backbenches
Karl Turner, a Labour MP, says the mood on the backbenches is 'dire'. He says that unless Starmer sacks his chief of staff Morgan McSweeney he will be 'up against it' and have to make a decision about his own future
He tells
@TimesRadio
the atmosphere in the Commons was the 'angriest' he has ever seen it, but that the anger was directed at his advisers
He says he forwarded messages from people expressing their anger directly to the prime minister last night. 'He thanked me, and I suspect he thanked those who were then messaging him'
'My advice to the prime minister is get rid of those advisers who have frankly given terrible advice to him over weeks and months. The PM needs to deal with that and make a decision. If the PM decides he has to be surrounded by advisers who give him shoddy advice the reality of that is the prime minister is going to have to make a decision about his future some point soon
'If McSweeney is still in 10 Downing Street the PM is up against it'
We have influence but we're disconnected
We're rich but we're also crumbling broke
We have much to offer if we invested in it
I don't want to work against the bond markets, I want to work with them. A country with a clear purpose, which is investable and openly driving its economy for the long term.
I could go on all day about our very urgent need to start investing in ourselves. We can't carry on cutting literally every bit of spending so that the country is both expensive and tatty. I am way more on the side of the Green outsiders than I am the Refuk outsiders. But I fear that bringing that traitorous fuck Farage into Downing Street will only wreck the country further.
Those who control the media...
For example in 2012 the football started two days before the opening ceremony.
https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/2019305489817882832
Are we about to see the long-awaited collapse in the Russian economy? These things happen slowly then happen quickly, but it’s been happening slowly for a while now.
https://www.instagram.com/p/DOeXv5MjJez/
An albatross on Brown
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/cartoon/2008/oct/27/mandelson-osborne-brown-cameron
Starmer knew where to look for the Labour PM albatross
Just needs one more whack with a heavy spoon.
Putin has done to Russia what Pol Pot did to Cambodia.
I think McSweeney is useless, but so is Starmer. Ditching McSweeney might give him cover for a bit, but it’s easy to see the direction of travel.
They didn't:
Sunder Katwala (sundersays)
@sundersays.bsky.social
Reform councillors in Kent told the FT that they were surprised not to find lavish spending on wokeness from their predecessors
https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3me3zgcqbvc2o
The comment about working class friends is interesting. I had, when younger, many working class friends. Nowadays those I am still friends with would not be deemed working class. White colllar jobs, nice homes, comfortably off.
The working class has always had people who wallow in it and people who aspire to do better. That’s where most of my friendship group from my younger years ended up. I do also have posh friends who were privately educated.
This thread is key to me. There is little substantive consequence for misdeeds.
‘ We see scandal after scandal, and the politicians keep uttering the same trite phrase, “lessons will be learned”. The public want to see people being actually held to account.
After the collapse of RBS, Fred Goodwin lost part of his pension, but I doubt he is living in a council house. Paula Vennells of the Post Office handed back her CBE in 2024, but she was only awarded it in 2019, well after the scandal was known about.’
Except that they made her cute and fun, so the online right adopted her and made their own videos.
They keep his poll tax low...
It's quite funny that the government's own pro immigration propaganda had to be taken down because the only likeable character from it was the one they wanted everyone to hate.
That's the thing about "outsider" parties - as long as they are on the outside, they can play that game but as soon as confronted with the consequences of their own electoral success (or the failings of others) they are forced to come "inside" and that, so to speak, taints them for all time (it would seem).
The other side of it is to ask why a party is in business - I've never heard of a party whose sole raison d'etre was to shout in futile anger from the sidelines. No, people form and join parties to achieve policy goals whether social, economic or both. The only way to achieve those goals (currently) is through the electoral system in our democracy but once you have achieved that you then have to do some (not all) of what you promise and on that you are then judged at the next election.
The Conservatives don't want to spend the next 10-15 years shouting at Labour and Reform Governments from the sidelines - they want to be there, in Government, enacting policies, enjoying "power" but as they know full well, the price of that power can be very high but do they want another go at Government? You better believe they do.
I love this country. It is the greatest country in the world.
We are tolerant, decent and respectful – and unity is our strength.
But for too long, proud communities have been failed by politics and left powerless to do anything about it.
Our Pride in Place programme changes that. We are giving people the power to build up their communities. We’ve already invested thousands into communities across Britain. Now, we are giving thousands more the opportunity to transform their local area.
Putting local people in control and building a Britain that works for all.
And thanks to GOTV.
These redundant hacks need to consider their industry is rapidly changing and what they need to move onto and drop the entitlement I’ve seen on social media.
How’s about that !!
You can search by contacts, photos and even flight history.
👉 jmail.world
https://x.com/setupspawn/status/2019066631557710326?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
If that's an example of his business acumen, investors should be concerned