Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
I think it's impossible to say at this stage whether Greens or Reform will win the seat.
Speaking of Iranian proxies things are still weird in Lebanon apparently.
This is INSANE! Lebanese MTV reports that Hezbollah arrests a Lebanese soldier (LAF) after stopping a truck full of weapons to Hezbollah - coming from Syria. What’s more insane is that they released the soldier after negotiations with the LAF! Yes! YOU READ THAT RIGHT! And no one got arrested. No one! And no arms confiscated on the spot. What!?? Watch the video on @MTVLebanonNews mtv.com.lb/news/1647403
The thing that seemed weird about it was Hezbollah had taken such a kicking from Israel, and their international backers sufficiently punished, that there was some hope expressed their abililty to continue to do stuff like this might have diminished.
I think they still represent/have support from a significant chunk of the Lebanese population.
Euan McColm in the Daily Mail : 'The Burnham debacle leaves Starmer looking weaker than ever - but there's another Labour leader who could be gone before the PM'
"So, the Labour leader is safe. For now. But the PM’s security is fragile, indeed.
On May 7, there will be elections to local authorities across England and to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments. Predicted losses for Labour will sharpen focus on Sir Keir’s inadequacies.
But the Prime Minister is not the only senior Labour figure whose political future now hangs in the balance.
Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is in coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Felix is actively posting and liking.
And @MrEd has had several nom de plumes over the years. And I'm fairly sure @Sandpit counts as a Reform supporter.
For what it's worth, we also have barely any Green supporters either.
We are definitely overrepresented as far as "soft left, not sure exactly where", and conservatives.
Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is in coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
The tactical voting and turnout is going to be interesting. I don't know much about this constituency/area, but would it be fertile ground for a local high profile left leaning independent candidate?
Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is in coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
The tactical voting and turnout is going to be interesting. I don't know much about this constituency/area, but would it be fertile ground for a local high profile left leaning independent candidate?
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Felix is actively posting and liking.
And @MrEd has had several nom de plumes over the years. And I'm fairly sure @Sandpit counts as a Reform supporter.
For what it's worth, we also have barely any Green supporters either.
We are definitely overrepresented as far as "soft left, not sure exactly where", and conservatives.
If you’re betting money, you have to be a realist, so we’re low on supporters of populism?
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
That thread has me arguing that Sir Keir is boring and unlikeable… so will never (beat Boris to) become PM! Half right I think
I only voted Tory once; in 2019 to GBD, but I must say I am more inclined towards them than Reform at the moment. I can’t put my finger on why exactly, I have a feeling it’s that I like an underdog, and Reform seem a bit too cocky and Americanised, if I can say that, for me. Also, I just don’t think PM Farage be good for the country, even if I agree with him. It will be non stop fighting.
Speaking of Iranian proxies things are still weird in Lebanon apparently.
This is INSANE! Lebanese MTV reports that Hezbollah arrests a Lebanese soldier (LAF) after stopping a truck full of weapons to Hezbollah - coming from Syria. What’s more insane is that they released the soldier after negotiations with the LAF! Yes! YOU READ THAT RIGHT! And no one got arrested. No one! And no arms confiscated on the spot. What!?? Watch the video on @MTVLebanonNews mtv.com.lb/news/1647403
The thing that seemed weird about it was Hezbollah had taken such a kicking from Israel, and their international backers sufficiently punished, that there was some hope expressed their abililty to continue to do stuff like this might have diminished.
I think they still represent/have support from a significant chunk of the Lebanese population.
No doubt, but they were certainly able to be more effective due to outside help, some of which it appears is still getting through.
Euan McColm in the Daily Mail : 'The Burnham debacle leaves Starmer looking weaker than ever - but there's another Labour leader who could be gone before the PM'
"So, the Labour leader is safe. For now. But the PM’s security is fragile, indeed.
On May 7, there will be elections to local authorities across England and to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments. Predicted losses for Labour will sharpen focus on Sir Keir’s inadequacies.
But the Prime Minister is not the only senior Labour figure whose political future now hangs in the balance.
Twitter Defence Analysts seem in agreement that Donnie is going into Iran in the next 24-48 hrs.
So no change from the armchair reports for the last week then
But what would be the mission? 🤷♀️
None of Trumps Military Advisors and Leaders will sign off a mission in Iran without clear, achievable objectives to tick off - because without clear objectives, how do they clearly present the risks from doing it?
Similar on the political advisor side, how many people killed (for it won’t just be US military deaths in the Iran+proxy’s war with US and allies) for it to erode Trump and all Republican candidates the coming elections in opinion polls?
I am starting to think renaming Gulf of Mexico to Gulf of USA was some minds are full of oil underneath it, and Trumps Gun Boat diplomacy on Venezuela is about Oil - surely attempting regime change in Iran would stand out a mile as being about oil, regardless what reasons were given?
Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is in coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
Galloway's party standing will take some Muslim and hard left votes from the Greens and Labour in Gorton
I doubt it, but not sure what it will take for some Tories to realise Reform don't want to work together, they want to replace them. Stepping aside won't earn much gratitude.
Is opposing Judaism antisemitic? I'd say yes to that, so I'd also say yes to your question.
Islamism is different from Islam. Look them up
Being opposed to Islam isn't islamophobic. It's a religion, and therefore a philosophy, a belief system, and may be opposed. Exactly as you may be opposed to a political philosophy.
Similarly, being opposed to Judaism, the religion, isn't antisemitic.
You oppose the 10 commandments?
Some of them. But in any case people can support elements of a religious philosophy whilst being opposed to some fundamental tenets of the faith itself.
Someone might find a lot they like about the teachings of Jesus but still oppose the religious institutions promoting it, or just not agree with (and so oppose) fundamental aspects of its beliefs (eg that Jesus was the son of God).
Well Jews don't believe Jesus was the son of God
Not even in a roundabout way ?
Did they have roundabouts in the holy land?
They did when we drove from Jerusalem to Jericho !!!!
If they’d stopped at the stop line, instead of driving round the roundabout 7 times…
Don't go there please
Defintely don't drive round a roundabout 7 times.
You'll get dizzy.
First time I ever got pulled over for suspected drink driving was when I drove round a roundabout three times.
I wasn’t sure what exit to take…
How did ever drive in unknown places before SatNav.
Back in the 1960s, if my Dad was going on a long journey he wrote to the AA who, about a week later, sent him a detailed set of instructions of what roads to take and when and where to turn. The only drawback was that it required my Mum to read it to him. It looked something like this.
If I'm ever driving somewhere unfamiliar, I lool at a map before I go. I chiose a route, and go that way. It's rare any route in the UK is so complicated you can't memorise it at least until the last mile. It wasn't hard in tbe 90s and it's not hard now. Sat navs aren't even that goof at avoiding the traffic because it's sending every other fucker by the back roads too. Yet another innivation we didn't really need.
Like most technology, satnav and modern phone based equivalents are useful servants but poor masters.
I pretty much always run Google maps via Android auto through the car's screen wherever I'm going. Takes 10 seconds to give voice instructions. Google maps is so good at this, I can just say "drive to Screwfix " and it will find the nearest one without me knowing an address or even looking at the map on screen.
If it suggests a diversion due to traffic, you don't have to take it. Ignore it and it will keep searching for new alternatives. It never gets upset at being ignored, unlike my human driving companion. But after a while, if you have a good general sense of the road network around you, you will still find it useful to have Google maps tell you how much time it thinks you will save by altering your route. On the M5 south of Bristol, when summer arrives and the caravans on their under inflated 10 year old tyres emerge from their winter slumber, it has saved me literally hours by giving pinpoint accurate warning of where and how long traffic delays are. I still have to use my brain to decide whether the alternative route it suggests is likely to be as good as the ones I've worked out by trial and error over the years, but it's still giving me useful info.
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Luckyguy is a Kemi fan though he would likely go Reform if Cleverly replaced Kemi as Tory leader
Is opposing Judaism antisemitic? I'd say yes to that, so I'd also say yes to your question.
Islamism is different from Islam. Look them up
Being opposed to Islam isn't islamophobic. It's a religion, and therefore a philosophy, a belief system, and may be opposed. Exactly as you may be opposed to a political philosophy.
Similarly, being opposed to Judaism, the religion, isn't antisemitic.
You oppose the 10 commandments?
Some of them. But in any case people can support elements of a religious philosophy whilst being opposed to some fundamental tenets of the faith itself.
Someone might find a lot they like about the teachings of Jesus but still oppose the religious institutions promoting it, or just not agree with (and so oppose) fundamental aspects of its beliefs (eg that Jesus was the son of God).
Well Jews don't believe Jesus was the son of God
Not even in a roundabout way ?
Did they have roundabouts in the holy land?
They did when we drove from Jerusalem to Jericho !!!!
If they’d stopped at the stop line, instead of driving round the roundabout 7 times…
Don't go there please
Defintely don't drive round a roundabout 7 times.
You'll get dizzy.
First time I ever got pulled over for suspected drink driving was when I drove round a roundabout three times.
I wasn’t sure what exit to take…
How did ever drive in unknown places before SatNav.
Back in the 1960s, if my Dad was going on a long journey he wrote to the AA who, about a week later, sent him a detailed set of instructions of what roads to take and when and where to turn. The only drawback was that it required my Mum to read it to him. It looked something like this.
If I'm ever driving somewhere unfamiliar, I lool at a map before I go. I chiose a route, and go that way. It's rare any route in the UK is so complicated you can't memorise it at least until the last mile. It wasn't hard in tbe 90s and it's not hard now. Sat navs aren't even that goof at avoiding the traffic because it's sending every other fucker by the back roads too. Yet another innivation we didn't really need.
Sat Navs are mainly good for avoiding missing the turning. Provided you already agree with the route. I've ignored silly C-roads before.
Except on a roundabout where they are confusing, as they can't update and reorientate fast enough.
The most frustrating situation, I find, is emerging from an underground car park, especially in an unfamiliar city. You can't always stop while the system calculates position, and even then you've normally had to commit to a direction at a junction before there's enough motion data to allow the system to work out that you've committed to the wrong direction...
Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is in coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
The tactical voting and turnout is going to be interesting. I don't know much about this constituency/area, but would it be fertile ground for a local high profile left leaning independent candidate?
You mean like a Mr Burnham?
Yes. I was wondering about whether Andy Burnham is even considering the possibility after the events that unfolded before and after the Labour NEC vote, and also if he has the cojones to resign from the Labour party to run as an independent in this by-election?
I would imagine that this would not only pose a nightmare scenario to the Labour party, but also for the Greens and Reform too who also fancy their chances in this by-election. And because surely being prevented from even putting his hat in the ring as a possible Labour candidate by Starmer and the NEC would only enhance Andy Burnham's chances of winning the seat as an independent and what a powerful message that would send to the Labour party further weakening Keir Starmer's leadership, especially if he had some strong Union backing?
Jacob has some point in that Reform were second in the seat in 2024 and are best placed therefore to beat Labour and the Tories were 5th behind the Greens and Workers Party.
Farage of course stood candidates down for Tory MPs in Tory seats in 2019
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Luckyguy is a Kemi fan though he would likely go Reform if Cleverly replaced Kemi as Tory leader
TBF to the mods all social mediums decline over time. They rise they peak they fall. *insert quote from Ecclesiastes*
PB is no different. Also, we’ve just gotten older and the relative newcomers - like @bondegezou - are just fucking dreadful. So utterly, crushingly dull. I’d rather have excitable young Corbynites - stop laughing at the back - than this grey dreariness
Hey ho. I shall not repine. Somewhere out there is probably a new PB just being born. Full of funny well informed maverick nerds and nutters in their 20s 30s and 40s - like PB as was
Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is in coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
The tactical voting and turnout is going to be interesting. I don't know much about this constituency/area, but would it be fertile ground for a local high profile left leaning independent candidate?
You mean like a Mr Burnham?
Yes. I was wondering about whether Andy Burnham is even considering the possibility after the events that unfolded before and after the Labour NEC vote, and also if he has the cojones to resign from the Labour party to run as an independent in this by-election?
I would imagine that this would not only pose a nightmare scenario to the Labour party, but also for the Greens and Reform too who also fancy their chances in this by-election. And because surely being prevented from even putting his hat in the ring as a possible Labour candidate by Starmer and the NEC would only enhance Andy Burnham's chances of winning the seat as an independent and what a powerful message that would send to the Labour party further weakening Keir Starmer's leadership, especially if he had some strong Union backing?
What would be the point from Burnham's perspective? Sure he becomes an MP but as an independent party of one he'll have zero influence and nothing to do. Labour would never allow him to rejoin if he stood against and official candidate. Much better to remain Mayor of a massive city.
Jacob has some point in that Reform were second in the seat in 2024 and are best placed therefore to beat Labour and the Tories were 5th behind the Greens and Workers Party.
Farage of course stood candidates down for Tory MPs in Tory seats in 2019
If a Conservative candidate stands and JRM suggests voting for a different candidate, that would be reason to expel him from the party.
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Luckyguy is a Kemi fan though he would likely go Reform if Cleverly replaced Kemi as Tory leader
TBF to the mods all social mediums decline over time. They rise they peak they fall. *insert quote from Ecclesiastes*
PB is no different. Also, we’ve just gotten older and the relative newcomers - like @bondegezou - are just fucking dreadful. So utterly, crushingly dull. I’d rather have excitable young Corbynites - stop laughing at the back - than this grey dreariness
Hey ho. I shall not repine. Somewhere out there is probably a new PB just being born. Full of funny well informed maverick nerds and nutters in their 20s 30s and 40s - like PB as was
I wish them well
I think we still have some under 40s on here, even a few under 30, so there is hope
Jacob has some point in that Reform were second in the seat in 2024 and are best placed therefore to beat Labour and the Tories were 5th behind the Greens and Workers Party.
Farage of course stood candidates down for Tory MPs in Tory seats in 2019
If a Conservative candidate stands and JRM suggests voting for a different candidate, that would be reason to expel him from the party.
No it would not and as a Tory member of 30 years standing I would be appalled if such a thing was done to Jacob who is more Tory in the traditional sense than half of CCHQ! In any case JRM has said if a Tory candidate is selected he would back them but there hasn't been one selected yet
Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is in coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
The tactical voting and turnout is going to be interesting. I don't know much about this constituency/area, but would it be fertile ground for a local high profile left leaning independent candidate?
You mean like a Mr Burnham?
Yes. I was wondering about whether Andy Burnham is even considering the possibility after the events that unfolded before and after the Labour NEC vote, and also if he has the cojones to resign from the Labour party to run as an independent in this by-election?
I would imagine that this would not only pose a nightmare scenario to the Labour party, but also for the Greens and Reform too who also fancy their chances in this by-election. And because surely being prevented from even putting his hat in the ring as a possible Labour candidate by Starmer and the NEC would only enhance Andy Burnham's chances of winning the seat as an independent and what a powerful message that would send to the Labour party further weakening Keir Starmer's leadership, especially if he had some strong Union backing?
What would be the point from Burnham's perspective? Sure he becomes an MP but as an independent party of one he'll have zero influence and nothing to do. Labour would never allow him to rejoin if he stood against and official candidate. Much better to remain Mayor of a massive city.
Burnham has said he will back the Labour candidate while remaining focused on his day job as Mayor now
Just had a look at the local elections in Denton and it was mostly Labour, Greens and Tories standing. No sign of Reform. Greens doing pretty well in fact, and this is supposed to be the weakest part of the seat for them.
During an interview tonight on Fox News, President Donald J. Trump confirmed that the “Commander-at-Large” of the United States Border Patrol (USBP), Gregory K. Bovino, would be leaving Minneapolis along with several agents, replaced by Tom Homan, the White House Border Czar. President Trump states that Bovino is “very good” but that he’s “a pretty out there kind of guy,” adding that maybe that wasn’t good in Minneapolis.
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Luckyguy is a Kemi fan though he would likely go Reform if Cleverly replaced Kemi as Tory leader
TBF to the mods all social mediums decline over time. They rise they peak they fall. *insert quote from Ecclesiastes*
PB is no different. Also, we’ve just gotten older and the relative newcomers - like @bondegezou - are just fucking dreadful. So utterly, crushingly dull. I’d rather have excitable young Corbynites - stop laughing at the back - than this grey dreariness
Hey ho. I shall not repine. Somewhere out there is probably a new PB just being born. Full of funny well informed maverick nerds and nutters in their 20s 30s and 40s - like PB as was
I wish them well
I was about 25 when I first started posting on PB in the mid 2000s, so I've done a good job of wasting the years since then on here, lol. I really have spent a ridiculous amount of time getting into pointless arguments with people who were never going to change their minds, because of course PB mostly attracts die-hards with very fixed political opinions.
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Felix is actively posting and liking.
And @MrEd has had several nom de plumes over the years. And I'm fairly sure @Sandpit counts as a Reform supporter.
For what it's worth, we also have barely any Green supporters either.
We are definitely overrepresented as far as "soft left, not sure exactly where", and conservatives.
FWIW, I'm currently a Ref voter, although I might vote tactically for the right sort of Tory if I was in a seat where Ref has no chance. I'm currently in High Peak, which was a Tory-Lab marginal - goodness only knows who'd win it at the moment, but I'm fairly likely to move before the next GE (unless Starmer government implodes very spectacularly in the next year or so) .
Doesn't necessarily mean I agree with everything everyone Ref adjacent says or does mind you - I just think they just seem more likely to fix at least some of the country's problems than all the alternatives (most of whom appear actively keen to make the country's problems worse).
Just had a look at the local elections in Denton and it was mostly Labour, Greens and Tories standing. No sign of Reform. Greens doing pretty well in fact, and this is supposed to be the weakest part of the seat for them.
Denton is the less ethnically diverse part of the constituency according to electoral calculus. That and the selection of an easily dislikeable candidate suggests laying Reform at current odds. Though a 4 way split on votes makes it all quite dicey
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Felix is actively posting and liking.
And @MrEd has had several nom de plumes over the years. And I'm fairly sure @Sandpit counts as a Reform supporter.
For what it's worth, we also have barely any Green supporters either.
We are definitely overrepresented as far as "soft left, not sure exactly where", and conservatives.
FWIW, I'm currently a Ref voter, although I might vote tactically for the right sort of Tory if I was in a seat where Ref has no chance. I'm currently in High Peak, which was a Tory-Lab marginal - goodness only knows who'd win it at the moment, but I'm fairly likely to move before the next GE (unless Starmer government implodes very spectacularly in the next year or so) .
Doesn't necessarily mean I agree with everything everyone Ref adjacent says or does mind you - I just think they just seem more likely to fix at least some of the country's problems than all the alternatives (most of whom appear actively keen to make the country's problems worse).
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Felix is actively posting and liking.
And @MrEd has had several nom de plumes over the years. And I'm fairly sure @Sandpit counts as a Reform supporter.
For what it's worth, we also have barely any Green supporters either.
We are definitely overrepresented as far as "soft left, not sure exactly where", and conservatives.
FWIW, I'm currently a Ref voter, although I might vote tactically for the right sort of Tory if I was in a seat where Ref has no chance. I'm currently in High Peak, which was a Tory-Lab marginal - goodness only knows who'd win it at the moment, but I'm fairly likely to move before the next GE (unless Starmer government implodes very spectacularly in the next year or so) .
Doesn't necessarily mean I agree with everything everyone Ref adjacent says or does mind you - I just think they just seem more likely to fix at least some of the country's problems than all the alternatives (most of whom appear actively keen to make the country's problems worse).
Come to mention it, I also forgot @williamglenn - although he might find Reform insufficiently Trumpian.
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Luckyguy is a Kemi fan though he would likely go Reform if Cleverly replaced Kemi as Tory leader
TBF to the mods all social mediums decline over time. They rise they peak they fall. *insert quote from Ecclesiastes*
PB is no different. Also, we’ve just gotten older and the relative newcomers - like @bondegezou - are just fucking dreadful. So utterly, crushingly dull. I’d rather have excitable young Corbynites - stop laughing at the back - than this grey dreariness
Hey ho. I shall not repine. Somewhere out there is probably a new PB just being born. Full of funny well informed maverick nerds and nutters in their 20s 30s and 40s - like PB as was
I wish them well
I was about 25 when I first started posting on PB in the mid 2000s, so I've done a good job of wasting the years since then on here, lol. I really have spent a ridiculous amount of time getting into pointless arguments with people who were never going to change their minds, because of course PB mostly attracts die-hards with very fixed political opinions.
Assuming I've never had to sign up for Vanilla again, and thus it's date for my registration is correct, I was 26 when I delurked, almost 13 years ago, but I've been following PB much longer - I remember the era of unthreaded comments before Vanilla, when a response would just have a comment number to indicate the comment to which it was a reply...
Jacob has some point in that Reform were second in the seat in 2024 and are best placed therefore to beat Labour and the Tories were 5th behind the Greens and Workers Party.
Farage of course stood candidates down for Tory MPs in Tory seats in 2019
Yes. What Jacob is saying amounts to a deal, a pact. Liberals and SDP 1980’s. But who does such a deal most favour at this time?
If Labour lose this safe heartland seat to Reform, do we Conservatives celebrate that outcome as in our interest? Or is our candidate taking votes off Reform and stopping Reform momentum, much more in the Conservative Party interest?
IMO don’t even get as far as think about it in those terms. That’s kindergarten political strategy. Think about what not standing candidates means, in the first instance.
IMO Standing a paper candidate and hardly campaigning is a very different thing than not entering at all. Not entering is strongly saying to everyone, the Conservative Party have “no go” areas, where we don’t offer the voters there a chance to vote for the Conservative message. Fielding No candidate is like saying we believe what Reform stand for, their values and policy, are so very close to our own, we are happy to see them get elected and grow stronger. And who benefits most from that message, from us, to all voters everywhere? Labour and Lib Dem’s obviously. “Don’t just take it from us, vote Conservative Get Farage - Kemi Badenoch’s Tories are explicitly saying this to you too!”
And where we are supposed to be opposing Reform, we will be endorsing them!
There has to be some way of disciplining Mogg and everyone publically speaking like this. We are supposed to be releasing “dis tracks” about them “dey not like us.”
Well Jacob Rees_Mogg can just sod off, this is a democratic country where no matter how small the Conservative vote is in this constituency that small minority of voters still deserve to have the right to vote for the party of their choice in this by-election! Voters already have the powerful tool of tactical voting if they so wish, but its just wrong to simple deny those that don't want to do this the right to vote for the party of their choice regardless of the impact on other parties candidates chances and the eventual outcome of the result.
Reform are currently digging themselves a big hole with their gimmicky do as we say, but not as we do idea of democracy. They don't appear to believe in giving their own party members a voice in leadership contests, and despite just weeks ago when they were campaigning to make defecting MPs hold by-elections, they and their newly defected Conservative MPs are now refusing to hold by-elections in these constituencies. So this protest party is good at talking the talk, but not walking the walk so much. The Reform party has now become the new UKIP fiefdom just as it was run and controlled by Nigel Farage on Trump steriods!
Now to say that I am not a fan of Reform Scotland would be an understatement, I really find it utterly depressing that we are going to lose so many good opposition MSPs who are either standing down or will lose their seats in the May election because Reform are going to split the Opposition vote even further and this will probable let another SNP/Scottish Green coalition back into power for another five years while Holyrood remains utterly broken and not fit for purpose with no hope of that changing under them if they get another term in power.
But there are clearly people in Scotland who support and want to vote for Reform as the polling shows, but you will not ever see me asking this party not to fight the Holyrood election in May and because the best way to beat them is to make the argument that while they are quite rightly another choice they don't have the best policies to sort Scotland's issues out and they will in so many seats and the List vote split the Opposition vote further and let the SNP with the Scottish Greens back into power for another five years.
If you follow Scottish politics closely enough, you will sadly know of some of the real talent on the Opposition benches who are already standing down and leaving in May and who have given up in frustration while having made an amazing contribution to Holyrood and were passionate about making it a more effective and accountable Parliament that delivered for the public rather than the now too powerful North Korean level secretive SNP administration that now has seen one brave Scottish journalist come out and call it a banana republic as so many of us have been saying for ages with barely any interest from the UK media...
Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is in coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
Galloway's party standing will take some Muslim and hard left votes from the Greens and Labour in Gorton
Galloway's party doesn't do so well when it's not being fronted by Galloway.
Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is in coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
That's where I'm at.
The combined left-wing vote looks simply too high for Reform to win, unless there's a perfect even split.
Euan McColm in the Daily Mail : 'The Burnham debacle leaves Starmer looking weaker than ever - but there's another Labour leader who could be gone before the PM'
"So, the Labour leader is safe. For now. But the PM’s security is fragile, indeed.
On May 7, there will be elections to local authorities across England and to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments. Predicted losses for Labour will sharpen focus on Sir Keir’s inadequacies.
But the Prime Minister is not the only senior Labour figure whose political future now hangs in the balance.
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
That thread has me arguing that Sir Keir is boring and unlikeable… so will never (beat Boris to) become PM! Half right I think
I only voted Tory once; in 2019 to GBD, but I must say I am more inclined towards them than Reform at the moment. I can’t put my finger on why exactly, I have a feeling it’s that I like an underdog, and Reform seem a bit too cocky and Americanised, if I can say that, for me. Also, I just don’t think PM Farage be good for the country, even if I agree with him. It will be non stop fighting.
I can't see how Reform and Farage wouldn't be like late stage Boris/Truss redux.
You do need to be organised, persuasive, and focused to get anything done in politics with a clear plan and an experienced team.
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Luckyguy is a Kemi fan though he would likely go Reform if Cleverly replaced Kemi as Tory leader
Cleverly isn't the answer to anything.
I think he's a nice guy, but has absolutely nothing about him.
During an interview tonight on Fox News, President Donald J. Trump confirmed that the “Commander-at-Large” of the United States Border Patrol (USBP), Gregory K. Bovino, would be leaving Minneapolis along with several agents, replaced by Tom Homan, the White House Border Czar. President Trump states that Bovino is “very good” but that he’s “a pretty out there kind of guy,” adding that maybe that wasn’t good in Minneapolis.
It's not clear that Homan is any better. He's just another violent Trumpist thug.
He was he author of the policy that young children should be separated from their parents at the border to motivate the parents.
And was heavily engaged in writing the policies for Project 2025 around immigration and enforcement the effects of which see see in Minnesota.
I'm a bit worried Starmer will come back having signed over Jersey and the Isle of Man and payments of £9bn a year for 199 years in exchange for an annual kowtow ceremony and a new restaurant specialising in chop suey in Stoke:
I'm a bit worried Starmer will come back having signed over Jersey and the Isle of Man and payments of £9bn a year for 199 years in exchange for an annual kowtow ceremony and a new restaurant specialising in chop suey in Stoke:
Is opposing Judaism antisemitic? I'd say yes to that, so I'd also say yes to your question.
Islamism is different from Islam. Look them up
Being opposed to Islam isn't islamophobic. It's a religion, and therefore a philosophy, a belief system, and may be opposed. Exactly as you may be opposed to a political philosophy.
Similarly, being opposed to Judaism, the religion, isn't antisemitic.
You oppose the 10 commandments?
Some of them. But in any case people can support elements of a religious philosophy whilst being opposed to some fundamental tenets of the faith itself.
Someone might find a lot they like about the teachings of Jesus but still oppose the religious institutions promoting it, or just not agree with (and so oppose) fundamental aspects of its beliefs (eg that Jesus was the son of God).
Well Jews don't believe Jesus was the son of God
Not even in a roundabout way ?
Did they have roundabouts in the holy land?
They did when we drove from Jerusalem to Jericho !!!!
If they’d stopped at the stop line, instead of driving round the roundabout 7 times…
Don't go there please
Defintely don't drive round a roundabout 7 times.
You'll get dizzy.
First time I ever got pulled over for suspected drink driving was when I drove round a roundabout three times.
I wasn’t sure what exit to take…
How did ever drive in unknown places before SatNav.
Back in the 1960s, if my Dad was going on a long journey he wrote to the AA who, about a week later, sent him a detailed set of instructions of what roads to take and when and where to turn. The only drawback was that it required my Mum to read it to him. It looked something like this.
If I'm ever driving somewhere unfamiliar, I lool at a map before I go. I chiose a route, and go that way. It's rare any route in the UK is so complicated you can't memorise it at least until the last mile. It wasn't hard in tbe 90s and it's not hard now. Sat navs aren't even that goof at avoiding the traffic because it's sending every other fucker by the back roads too. Yet another innivation we didn't really need.
Sat Navs are mainly good for avoiding missing the turning. Provided you already agree with the route. I've ignored silly C-roads before.
Except on a roundabout where they are confusing, as they can't update and reorientate fast enough.
Yes. The thing with satnavs is to know at which point to ignore them and force them to follow the route you want to follow.
Google Maps does at least give you the quickest route, even if what it thinks is quickest isn’t always so, and very occasionally doesn’t exist as a practical option. The one on my car regularly offers routes that I know aren’t quickest, and even more annoyingly when I make the turn down some country lane that every local knows is the best way to go, then reduces the arrival time such that it was clearly able to calculate that the new route was quicker, but was unable to offer it up in the first place.
Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is in coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
That's where I'm at.
The combined left-wing vote looks simply too high for Reform to win, unless there's a perfect even split.
It is worth remembering that at least a third of Labour's 2024 vote is going to simply stay home.
During an interview tonight on Fox News, President Donald J. Trump confirmed that the “Commander-at-Large” of the United States Border Patrol (USBP), Gregory K. Bovino, would be leaving Minneapolis along with several agents, replaced by Tom Homan, the White House Border Czar. President Trump states that Bovino is “very good” but that he’s “a pretty out there kind of guy,” adding that maybe that wasn’t good in Minneapolis.
It's not clear that Homan is any better. He's just another violent Trumpist thug.
He was he author of the policy that young children should be separated from their parents at the border to motivate the parents.
And was heavily engaged in writing the policies for Project 2025 around immigration and enforcement the effects of which see see in Minnesota.
They might now be slightly less likely to shoot people, but this sort of shit remains the reality.
they dragged her away in chains and shipped her to Texas and only then checked, determined she was in fact here legally, and released her in Texas to figure out how to get back to Minnesota herself. and people wonder why her neighbors would protest!!! https://x.com/KelseyTuoc/status/2016251350045360539
Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is in coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
That's where I'm at.
The combined left-wing vote looks simply too high for Reform to win, unless there's a perfect even split.
It is worth remembering that at least a third of Labour's 2024 vote is going to simply stay home.
If the Greens manage to fully grab the mantle as challenger to Reform, then they will win in Gorton. If they do not, then Reform will win.
How is their ground game? Can they flood the constituency with supporters, and give off a sense that they are in the game and the main challenger to Reform?
I helped them out on the island a couple of elections back, when it was supposedly one of their top three UK targets and they’d sent a national agent down from ‘Green Towers’ to organise it - and I’ve never seen such a shambles of a campaign. One day I turned up at their office in a shop they’d rented in Newport, empty except for some guy busy scrolling his Instagram - I said I was from the LibDems offering to help them, which he accepted without any question; there was nowhere to sign in, I offered to deliver some leaflets in my town and he pointed to a large box in the corner, which contained a load of loose leaflets, not bundled or counted, and I noticed there were two different types so I asked which one they were delivering now and he said “take some of each” (a basic campaigning error). Once I’d sorted a sensible pile of leaflets, I asked where he needed me to deliver, and he just said “do wherever you like”. They had no routes or maps or list of streets or data about how many leaflets were needed or what had already been done, or anything. When I asked if he wanted to know where I had delivered afterwards, he looked most surprised but did scribble an email address on a scrap of paper.
Even the Liberals in their near moribund local parties in safe Tory seats, when I joined them back in the ‘70s could do better than that.
If they’d taken my contact details they could have got in touch to thank me and ask me to help again or on polling day, but, no, nothing. Someone walks in off the street offering to help - parties need to be a little bit wary at first, since dirty tricks and intelligence gathering by the other side does happen - but then recognise a potential helper, donor, member.
However, in the last GE, they won four seats in which there must have been tough contests, and as a minor party you don’t win a GE seat without some organisation and effort. So either they’ve improved dramatically in local campaign organisation between 2019 and 2024, or I just saw the worst side of them.
Tales from the dark side... I've just got back from the RN Museum at Hartlegrad (did the trip at fucking ridiculous speeds in the i5 M60) and I have Fukker news. They used to have a giant office like a teal painted Mogamma on a roundabout opposite an undertakers. This was very handy for a key tranche of Fukker votes - the over 70s dressed in mismatched tracksuits stood at a rain swept bus stop asking each other if it's Tuesday. IT HAS GONE! The Fukkers have retreated leaving the premises to be occupied by a hypnotherapy centre and one of those places that give you a fake tan by blasting chemicals up your nose. That's it. I am calling "Peak Fukker". If they have abandoned Brexit Ground Zero, what is left?
The undertaker has a Mustang Mach-E hearse, which I thought was interesting.
Is opposing Judaism antisemitic? I'd say yes to that, so I'd also say yes to your question.
Islamism is different from Islam. Look them up
Being opposed to Islam isn't islamophobic. It's a religion, and therefore a philosophy, a belief system, and may be opposed. Exactly as you may be opposed to a political philosophy.
Similarly, being opposed to Judaism, the religion, isn't antisemitic.
You oppose the 10 commandments?
Some of them. But in any case people can support elements of a religious philosophy whilst being opposed to some fundamental tenets of the faith itself.
Someone might find a lot they like about the teachings of Jesus but still oppose the religious institutions promoting it, or just not agree with (and so oppose) fundamental aspects of its beliefs (eg that Jesus was the son of God).
Well Jews don't believe Jesus was the son of God
Not even in a roundabout way ?
Did they have roundabouts in the holy land?
They did when we drove from Jerusalem to Jericho !!!!
If they’d stopped at the stop line, instead of driving round the roundabout 7 times…
Don't go there please
Defintely don't drive round a roundabout 7 times.
You'll get dizzy.
First time I ever got pulled over for suspected drink driving was when I drove round a roundabout three times.
I wasn’t sure what exit to take…
How did ever drive in unknown places before SatNav.
Back in the 1960s, if my Dad was going on a long journey he wrote to the AA who, about a week later, sent him a detailed set of instructions of what roads to take and when and where to turn. The only drawback was that it required my Mum to read it to him. It looked something like this.
If I'm ever driving somewhere unfamiliar, I lool at a map before I go. I chiose a route, and go that way. It's rare any route in the UK is so complicated you can't memorise it at least until the last mile. It wasn't hard in tbe 90s and it's not hard now. Sat navs aren't even that goof at avoiding the traffic because it's sending every other fucker by the back roads too. Yet another innivation we didn't really need.
Like most technology, satnav and modern phone based equivalents are useful servants but poor masters.
I pretty much always run Google maps via Android auto through the car's screen wherever I'm going. Takes 10 seconds to give voice instructions. Google maps is so good at this, I can just say "drive to Screwfix " and it will find the nearest one without me knowing an address or even looking at the map on screen.
If it suggests a diversion due to traffic, you don't have to take it. Ignore it and it will keep searching for new alternatives. It never gets upset at being ignored, unlike my human driving companion. But after a while, if you have a good general sense of the road network around you, you will still find it useful to have Google maps tell you how much time it thinks you will save by altering your route. On the M5 south of Bristol, when summer arrives and the caravans on their under inflated 10 year old tyres emerge from their winter slumber, it has saved me literally hours by giving pinpoint accurate warning of where and how long traffic delays are. I still have to use my brain to decide whether the alternative route it suggests is likely to be as good as the ones I've worked out by trial and error over the years, but it's still giving me useful info.
True! The two most useful things about it are telling you, often amazingly accurately, how long the journey you’re on will actually take, and helping you navigate complex junction layouts in cities where the way to go isn’t always immediately obvious. With suggested diversions for developing traffic situations, almost in real time, being the next best - a big improvement on local radio, which would usually be telling you about traffic problems long since resolved.
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Luckyguy is a Kemi fan though he would likely go Reform if Cleverly replaced Kemi as Tory leader
Cleverly isn't the answer to anything.
I think he's a nice guy, but has absolutely nothing about him.
Be careful what you wish for. HY's alternative is Stride. Now Stride would make Starmer look charismatic.
Well Jacob Rees_Mogg can just sod off, this is a democratic country where no matter how small the Conservative vote is in this constituency that small minority of voters still deserve to have the right to vote for the party of their choice in this by-election! Voters already have the powerful tool of tactical voting if they so wish, but its just wrong to simple deny those that don't want to do this the right to vote for the party of their choice regardless of the impact on other parties candidates chances and the eventual outcome of the result.
Reform are currently digging themselves a big hole with their gimmicky do as we say, but not as we do idea of democracy. They don't appear to believe in giving their own party members a voice in leadership contests, and despite just weeks ago when they were campaigning to make defecting MPs hold by-elections, they and their newly defected Conservative MPs are now refusing to hold by-elections in these constituencies. So this protest party is good at talking the talk, but not walking the walk so much. The Reform party has now become the new UKIP fiefdom just as it was run and controlled by Nigel Farage on Trump steriods!
Now to say that I am not a fan of Reform Scotland would be an understatement, I really find it utterly depressing that we are going to lose so many good opposition MSPs who are either standing down or will lose their seats in the May election because Reform are going to split the Opposition vote even further and this will probable let another SNP/Scottish Green coalition back into power for another five years while Holyrood remains utterly broken and not fit for purpose with no hope of that changing under them if they get another term in power.
But there are clearly people in Scotland who support and want to vote for Reform as the polling shows, but you will not ever see me asking this party not to fight the Holyrood election in May and because the best way to beat them is to make the argument that while they are quite rightly another choice they don't have the best policies to sort Scotland's issues out and they will in so many seats and the List vote split the Opposition vote further and let the SNP with the Scottish Greens back into power for another five years.
If you follow Scottish politics closely enough, you will sadly know of some of the real talent on the Opposition benches who are already standing down and leaving in May and who have given up in frustration while having made an amazing contribution to Holyrood and were passionate about making it a more effective and accountable Parliament that delivered for the public rather than the now too powerful North Korean level secretive SNP administration that now has seen one brave Scottish journalist come out and call it a banana republic as so many of us have been saying for ages with barely any interest from the UK media...
The question about the "North Korean" level of secrecy amongst the SNP is not just a matter of political tactics. There are more than credible rumours about decisions taken under Salmond and Sturgeon that suggest that camper vans are merely the tip of the iceberg. If we look at the behaviour of the SNP in recent years, it becomes a whole lot easier to understand if we assume that they have something to hide. Many have suggested that corruption - hanging together to avoid being hanged separately- lies at the heart of SNP discipline. The SNP are, and should be, a fading force. Unfortunately both the political culture at Holyrood, and a lot of self serving in the Scottish government continues to support the SNP status quo. More and more Scots want to see the changes you suggest, but the silent centralisation on Bute House is fossilizing an inept, even corrupt political culture in place.
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Felix is actively posting and liking.
And @MrEd has had several nom de plumes over the years. And I'm fairly sure @Sandpit counts as a Reform supporter.
For what it's worth, we also have barely any Green supporters either.
We are definitely overrepresented as far as "soft left, not sure exactly where", and conservatives.
FWIW, I'm currently a Ref voter, although I might vote tactically for the right sort of Tory if I was in a seat where Ref has no chance. I'm currently in High Peak, which was a Tory-Lab marginal - goodness only knows who'd win it at the moment, but I'm fairly likely to move before the next GE (unless Starmer government implodes very spectacularly in the next year or so) .
Doesn't necessarily mean I agree with everything everyone Ref adjacent says or does mind you - I just think they just seem more likely to fix at least some of the country's problems than all the alternatives (most of whom appear actively keen to make the country's problems worse).
Come to mention it, I also forgot @williamglenn - although he might find Reform insufficiently Trumpian.
The sentries report Reform supporters - thousands of ‘em!
Just reading up.on the BBC's failure to.mention Jews in the Holocaust broadcast. Its a new low even for the BBC. In fact its a disgrace.
Citation required.
BBC News are piss poor on a number of counts, but surely you are making this up.
The BBC, one of who's grandees owns the Jewish Chronicle are not normally shy when it comes to balance in favour of Israel, for example if an independent analysis of a Gazan atrocity is required, Elon Levy is their go-to "independent" commentator.
Just reading up.on the BBC's failure to.mention Jews in the Holocaust broadcast. Its a new low even for the BBC. In fact its a disgrace.
Citation required.
BBC News are piss poor on a number of counts, but surely you are making this up.
The BBC, one of who's grandees owns the Jewish Chronicle are not normally shy when it comes to balance in favour of Israel, for example if an independent analysis of a Gazan atrocity is required, Elon Levy is their go-to "independent" commentator.
BBC is forced to apologise over its Holocaust Memorial Day coverage... because 'it failed to use the word Jews' | Daily Mail Online https://share.google/errTUhUteB9yHWbNI
Well Jacob Rees_Mogg can just sod off, this is a democratic country where no matter how small the Conservative vote is in this constituency that small minority of voters still deserve to have the right to vote for the party of their choice in this by-election! Voters already have the powerful tool of tactical voting if they so wish, but its just wrong to simple deny those that don't want to do this the right to vote for the party of their choice regardless of the impact on other parties candidates chances and the eventual outcome of the result.
Reform are currently digging themselves a big hole with their gimmicky do as we say, but not as we do idea of democracy. They don't appear to believe in giving their own party members a voice in leadership contests, and despite just weeks ago when they were campaigning to make defecting MPs hold by-elections, they and their newly defected Conservative MPs are now refusing to hold by-elections in these constituencies. So this protest party is good at talking the talk, but not walking the walk so much. The Reform party has now become the new UKIP fiefdom just as it was run and controlled by Nigel Farage on Trump steriods!
Now to say that I am not a fan of Reform Scotland would be an understatement, I really find it utterly depressing that we are going to lose so many good opposition MSPs who are either standing down or will lose their seats in the May election because Reform are going to split the Opposition vote even further and this will probable let another SNP/Scottish Green coalition back into power for another five years while Holyrood remains utterly broken and not fit for purpose with no hope of that changing under them if they get another term in power.
But there are clearly people in Scotland who support and want to vote for Reform as the polling shows, but you will not ever see me asking this party not to fight the Holyrood election in May and because the best way to beat them is to make the argument that while they are quite rightly another choice they don't have the best policies to sort Scotland's issues out and they will in so many seats and the List vote split the Opposition vote further and let the SNP with the Scottish Greens back into power for another five years.
If you follow Scottish politics closely enough, you will sadly know of some of the real talent on the Opposition benches who are already standing down and leaving in May and who have given up in frustration while having made an amazing contribution to Holyrood and were passionate about making it a more effective and accountable Parliament that delivered for the public rather than the now too powerful North Korean level secretive SNP administration that now has seen one brave Scottish journalist come out and call it a banana republic as so many of us have been saying for ages with barely any interest from the UK media...
So the Tories still haven't realised that Reform are eating the Tories from the inside out.
Isn't it about time Mogg did the right thing and defected?
The real problem is that a non-trivial number of Conservatives would quite like Reform to eat up the Conservative Party. They look at what happened in Canada and see that as a good thing.
I don't think I can agree with JRM that the Tories should stand aside in this byelection. It gives opponents of both the Tories and Reform too much ammunition. If the Tory vote is significant in letting in a Labour (or more likely Green) MP, that will be a salutory lesson and focus minds for the coming GE. I expect it actually won't - I believe the Tory vote will largely fold into the Reform vote - that is what happened in Caerphilly.
Just reading up.on the BBC's failure to.mention Jews in the Holocaust broadcast. Its a new low even for the BBC. In fact its a disgrace.
Citation required.
BBC News are piss poor on a number of counts, but surely you are making this up.
The BBC, one of who's grandees owns the Jewish Chronicle are not normally shy when it comes to balance in favour of Israel, for example if an independent analysis of a Gazan atrocity is required, Elon Levy is their go-to "independent" commentator.
BBC is forced to apologise over its Holocaust Memorial Day coverage... because 'it failed to use the word Jews' | Daily Mail Online https://share.google/errTUhUteB9yHWbNI
Thank you. Nonetheless it would appear to be a confected outrage by the Mail over an accidental omission rather than an anti-Semitic conspiracy.
Technically the BBC by unsung "people" are right as other "minorities" like the Romany community were also victims of the holocaust.
I think faux outrage is unhelpful on Holocaust Memorial Day. Remember too whose side the current owner of the Mail's grandfather, Lord Rothermere, was on during the run up to the Second World War.
Comments
"So, the Labour leader is safe. For now. But the PM’s security is fragile, indeed.
On May 7, there will be elections to local authorities across England and to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments. Predicted losses for Labour will sharpen focus on Sir Keir’s inadequacies.
But the Prime Minister is not the only senior Labour figure whose political future now hangs in the balance.
A poor result for his party in the Holyrood election will only add to mounting speculation over the future of Anas Sarwar."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15503125/EUAN-MCCOLM-Burnham-debacle-leaves-Starmer-looking-weaker-theres-Labour-leader-gone-PM.html
For what it's worth, we also have barely any Green supporters either.
We are definitely overrepresented as far as "soft left, not sure exactly where", and conservatives.
I only voted Tory once; in 2019 to GBD, but I must say I am more inclined towards them than Reform at the moment. I can’t put my finger on why exactly, I have a feeling it’s that I like an underdog, and Reform seem a bit too cocky and Americanised, if I can say that, for me. Also, I just don’t think PM Farage be good for the country, even if I agree with him. It will be non stop fighting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lILQAd8XG7c
None of Trumps Military Advisors and Leaders will sign off a mission in Iran without clear, achievable objectives to tick off - because without clear objectives, how do they clearly present the risks from doing it?
Similar on the political advisor side, how many people killed (for it won’t just be US military deaths in the Iran+proxy’s war with US and allies) for it to erode Trump and all Republican candidates the coming elections in opinion polls?
I am starting to think renaming Gulf of Mexico to Gulf of USA was some minds are full of oil underneath it, and Trumps Gun Boat diplomacy on Venezuela is about Oil - surely attempting regime change in Iran would stand out a mile as being about oil, regardless what reasons were given?
1 - A bit over a decade ago he was an academic writing writing reports for them:
https://www.channel4.com/media/c4-news/images/voting-to-violence (7).pdf
2 - I think there will be parallels seen with East London around 2010, when the BNP were pursuing their "Suited and Booted" strategy.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/14/general-election-2010-fall-bnp
3 - This is their recent analysis of Goodwin. They see him as an opportunist.
https://hopenothate.org.uk/state-of-hate-2025-matthew-goodwin/
I pretty much always run Google maps via Android auto through the car's screen wherever I'm going. Takes 10 seconds to give voice instructions. Google maps is so good at this, I can just say "drive to Screwfix " and it will find the nearest one without me knowing an address or even looking at the map on screen.
If it suggests a diversion due to traffic, you don't have to take it. Ignore it and it will keep searching for new alternatives. It never gets upset at being ignored, unlike my human driving companion. But after a while, if you have a good general sense of the road network around you, you will still find it useful to have Google maps tell you how much time it thinks you will save by altering your route. On the M5 south of Bristol, when summer arrives and the caravans on their under inflated 10 year old tyres emerge from their winter slumber, it has saved me literally hours by giving pinpoint accurate warning of where and how long traffic delays are. I still have to use my brain to decide whether the alternative route it suggests is likely to be as good as the ones I've worked out by trial and error over the years, but it's still giving me useful info.
I would imagine that this would not only pose a nightmare scenario to the Labour party, but also for the Greens and Reform too who also fancy their chances in this by-election. And because surely being prevented from even putting his hat in the ring as a possible Labour candidate by Starmer and the NEC would only enhance Andy Burnham's chances of winning the seat as an independent and what a powerful message that would send to the Labour party further weakening Keir Starmer's leadership, especially if he had some strong Union backing?
Farage of course stood candidates down for Tory MPs in Tory seats in 2019
PB is no different. Also, we’ve just gotten older and the relative newcomers - like @bondegezou - are just fucking dreadful. So utterly, crushingly dull. I’d rather have excitable young Corbynites - stop laughing at the back - than this grey dreariness
Hey ho. I shall not repine. Somewhere out there is probably a new PB just being born. Full of funny well informed maverick nerds and nutters in their 20s 30s and 40s - like PB as was
I wish them well
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tameside_Metropolitan_Borough_Council_election#Denton_North_East
During an interview tonight on Fox News, President Donald J. Trump confirmed that the “Commander-at-Large” of the United States Border Patrol (USBP), Gregory K. Bovino, would be leaving Minneapolis along with several agents, replaced by Tom Homan, the White House Border Czar. President Trump states that Bovino is “very good” but that he’s “a pretty out there kind of guy,” adding that maybe that wasn’t good in Minneapolis.
Doesn't necessarily mean I agree with everything everyone Ref adjacent says or does mind you - I just think they just seem more likely to fix at least some of the country's problems than all the alternatives (most of whom appear actively keen to make the country's problems worse).
I also think @Taz is probably Reform-friendly.
In the dying days of Disqus, March 2013 IIRC, the inaugural edition of The Sunil on Sunday got over 40 likes!
(PB on Vanilla started soon afterwards)
If Labour lose this safe heartland seat to Reform, do we Conservatives celebrate that outcome as in our interest? Or is our candidate taking votes off Reform and stopping Reform momentum, much more in the Conservative Party interest?
IMO don’t even get as far as think about it in those terms. That’s kindergarten political strategy. Think about what not standing candidates means, in the first instance.
IMO Standing a paper candidate and hardly campaigning is a very different thing than not entering at all. Not entering is strongly saying to everyone, the Conservative Party have “no go” areas, where we don’t offer the voters there a chance to vote for the Conservative message. Fielding No candidate is like saying we believe what Reform stand for, their values and policy, are so very close to our own, we are happy to see them get elected and grow stronger. And who benefits most from that message, from us, to all voters everywhere? Labour and Lib Dem’s obviously. “Don’t just take it from us, vote Conservative Get Farage - Kemi Badenoch’s Tories are explicitly saying this to you too!”
And where we are supposed to be opposing Reform, we will be endorsing them!
There has to be some way of disciplining Mogg and everyone publically speaking like this. We are supposed to be releasing “dis tracks” about them “dey not like us.”
And the PB commentariat was aghast.
And so I sat in a coffee shop -in the days pre ChatGPT- and researched and implemented an alternative that the Wordpress forums said was decent.
The whole thing went remarkaby smoothly, and I'm sorry the Sunil on Sunday didn't continue :-)
Reform are currently digging themselves a big hole with their gimmicky do as we say, but not as we do idea of democracy. They don't appear to believe in giving their own party members a voice in leadership contests, and despite just weeks ago when they were campaigning to make defecting MPs hold by-elections, they and their newly defected Conservative MPs are now refusing to hold by-elections in these constituencies. So this protest party is good at talking the talk, but not walking the walk so much. The Reform party has now become the new UKIP fiefdom just as it was run and controlled by Nigel Farage on Trump steriods!
Now to say that I am not a fan of Reform Scotland would be an understatement, I really find it utterly depressing that we are going to lose so many good opposition MSPs who are either standing down or will lose their seats in the May election because Reform are going to split the Opposition vote even further and this will probable let another SNP/Scottish Green coalition back into power for another five years while Holyrood remains utterly broken and not fit for purpose with no hope of that changing under them if they get another term in power.
But there are clearly people in Scotland who support and want to vote for Reform as the polling shows, but you will not ever see me asking this party not to fight the Holyrood election in May and because the best way to beat them is to make the argument that while they are quite rightly another choice they don't have the best policies to sort Scotland's issues out and they will in so many seats and the List vote split the Opposition vote further and let the SNP with the Scottish Greens back into power for another five years.
If you follow Scottish politics closely enough, you will sadly know of some of the real talent on the Opposition benches who are already standing down and leaving in May and who have given up in frustration while having made an amazing contribution to Holyrood and were passionate about making it a more effective and accountable Parliament that delivered for the public rather than the now too powerful North Korean level secretive SNP administration that now has seen one brave Scottish journalist come out and call it a banana republic as so many of us have been saying for ages with barely any interest from the UK media...
The combined left-wing vote looks simply too high for Reform to win, unless there's a perfect even split.
Oh dear. How sad. Never mind.
You do need to be organised, persuasive, and focused to get anything done in politics with a clear plan and an experienced team.
It's not a pissing contest.
I think he's a nice guy, but has absolutely nothing about him.
He was he author of the policy that young children should be separated from their parents at the border to motivate the parents.
And was heavily engaged in writing the policies for Project 2025 around immigration and enforcement the effects of which see see in Minnesota.
And we won't mention the $50k in notes in a brown bag that he accepted corruptly in return for future services to be rendered.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpYpTYIWtqo
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy8p2re7gj5o
Good morning, everyone.
they dragged her away in chains and shipped her to Texas and only then checked, determined she was in fact here legally, and released her in Texas to figure out how to get back to Minnesota herself. and people wonder why her neighbors would protest!!!
https://x.com/KelseyTuoc/status/2016251350045360539
Even the Liberals in their near moribund local parties in safe Tory seats, when I joined them back in the ‘70s could do better than that.
If they’d taken my contact details they could have got in touch to thank me and ask me to help again or on polling day, but, no, nothing. Someone walks in off the street offering to help - parties need to be a little bit wary at first, since dirty tricks and intelligence gathering by the other side does happen - but then recognise a potential helper, donor, member.
However, in the last GE, they won four seats in which there must have been tough contests, and as a minor party you don’t win a GE seat without some organisation and effort. So either they’ve improved dramatically in local campaign organisation between 2019 and 2024, or I just saw the worst side of them.
You know who else was accused of being anti-Semitic after mentioning the Jews?
Oh, sorry, did you mean Khamanei?
It will not end well.
Thank you Mr. Vice President for this unique commemoration of the Holocaust that manages to avoid mentioning Jews or condemning Nazis.
https://x.com/tabletmag/status/2016283289112158361?s=20
BBC News are piss poor on a number of counts, but surely you are making this up.
The BBC, one of who's grandees owns the Jewish Chronicle are not normally shy when it comes to balance in favour of Israel, for example if an independent analysis of a Gazan atrocity is required, Elon Levy is their go-to "independent" commentator.
Just read Mogg's demands the conservatives stand down in Gorton to give Reform a free run
My response to Mogg is you join them if you want to, but under no circumstances must the conservatives give any ground to Farage's Trump tribute act
Indeed Moggs comments has seen me join @prosper.uk and I would urge all conservatives to come aboad and restore our party to a one nation organization
And to @HYUFD there is no excuse whatsoever for Mogg
Isn't it about time Mogg did the right thing and defected?
Technically the BBC by unsung "people" are right as other "minorities" like the Romany community were also victims of the holocaust.
I think faux outrage is unhelpful on Holocaust Memorial Day. Remember too whose side the current owner of the Mail's grandfather, Lord Rothermere, was on during the run up to the Second World War.