Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
I think it's impossible to say at this stage whether Greens or Reform will win the seat.
Speaking of Iranian proxies things are still weird in Lebanon apparently.
This is INSANE! Lebanese MTV reports that Hezbollah arrests a Lebanese soldier (LAF) after stopping a truck full of weapons to Hezbollah - coming from Syria. What’s more insane is that they released the soldier after negotiations with the LAF! Yes! YOU READ THAT RIGHT! And no one got arrested. No one! And no arms confiscated on the spot. What!?? Watch the video on @MTVLebanonNews mtv.com.lb/news/1647403
The thing that seemed weird about it was Hezbollah had taken such a kicking from Israel, and their international backers sufficiently punished, that there was some hope expressed their abililty to continue to do stuff like this might have diminished.
I think they still represent/have support from a significant chunk of the Lebanese population.
Euan McColm in the Daily Mail : 'The Burnham debacle leaves Starmer looking weaker than ever - but there's another Labour leader who could be gone before the PM'
"So, the Labour leader is safe. For now. But the PM’s security is fragile, indeed.
On May 7, there will be elections to local authorities across England and to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments. Predicted losses for Labour will sharpen focus on Sir Keir’s inadequacies.
But the Prime Minister is not the only senior Labour figure whose political future now hangs in the balance.
Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is in coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Felix is actively posting and liking.
And @MrEd has had several nom de plumes over the years. And I'm fairly sure @Sandpit counts as a Reform supporter.
For what it's worth, we also have barely any Green supporters either.
We are definitely overrepresented as far as "soft left, not sure exactly where", and conservatives.
Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is in coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
The tactical voting and turnout is going to be interesting. I don't know much about this constituency/area, but would it be fertile ground for a local high profile left leaning independent candidate?
Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is in coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
The tactical voting and turnout is going to be interesting. I don't know much about this constituency/area, but would it be fertile ground for a local high profile left leaning independent candidate?
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Felix is actively posting and liking.
And @MrEd has had several nom de plumes over the years. And I'm fairly sure @Sandpit counts as a Reform supporter.
For what it's worth, we also have barely any Green supporters either.
We are definitely overrepresented as far as "soft left, not sure exactly where", and conservatives.
If you’re betting money, you have to be a realist, so we’re low on supporters of populism?
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
That thread has me arguing that Sir Keir is boring and unlikeable… so will never (beat Boris to) become PM! Half right I think
I only voted Tory once; in 2019 to GBD, but I must say I am more inclined towards them than Reform at the moment. I can’t put my finger on why exactly, I have a feeling it’s that I like an underdog, and Reform seem a bit too cocky and Americanised, if I can say that, for me. Also, I just don’t think PM Farage be good for the country, even if I agree with him. It will be non stop fighting.
Speaking of Iranian proxies things are still weird in Lebanon apparently.
This is INSANE! Lebanese MTV reports that Hezbollah arrests a Lebanese soldier (LAF) after stopping a truck full of weapons to Hezbollah - coming from Syria. What’s more insane is that they released the soldier after negotiations with the LAF! Yes! YOU READ THAT RIGHT! And no one got arrested. No one! And no arms confiscated on the spot. What!?? Watch the video on @MTVLebanonNews mtv.com.lb/news/1647403
The thing that seemed weird about it was Hezbollah had taken such a kicking from Israel, and their international backers sufficiently punished, that there was some hope expressed their abililty to continue to do stuff like this might have diminished.
I think they still represent/have support from a significant chunk of the Lebanese population.
No doubt, but they were certainly able to be more effective due to outside help, some of which it appears is still getting through.
Euan McColm in the Daily Mail : 'The Burnham debacle leaves Starmer looking weaker than ever - but there's another Labour leader who could be gone before the PM'
"So, the Labour leader is safe. For now. But the PM’s security is fragile, indeed.
On May 7, there will be elections to local authorities across England and to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments. Predicted losses for Labour will sharpen focus on Sir Keir’s inadequacies.
But the Prime Minister is not the only senior Labour figure whose political future now hangs in the balance.
Twitter Defence Analysts seem in agreement that Donnie is going into Iran in the next 24-48 hrs.
So no change from the armchair reports for the last week then
But what would be the mission? 🤷♀️
None of Trumps Military Advisors and Leaders will sign off a mission in Iran without clear, achievable objectives to tick off - because without clear objectives, how do they clearly present the risks from doing it?
Similar on the political advisor side, how many people killed (for it won’t just be US military deaths in the Iran+proxy’s war with US and allies) for it to erode Trump and all Republican candidates the coming elections in opinion polls?
I am starting to think renaming Gulf of Mexico to Gulf of USA was some minds are full of oil underneath it, and Trumps Gun Boat diplomacy on Venezuela is about Oil - surely attempting regime change in Iran would stand out a mile as being about oil, regardless what reasons were given?
Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is in coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
Galloway's party standing will take some Muslim and hard left votes from the Greens and Labour in Gorton
I doubt it, but not sure what it will take for some Tories to realise Reform don't want to work together, they want to replace them. Stepping aside won't earn much gratitude.
Is opposing Judaism antisemitic? I'd say yes to that, so I'd also say yes to your question.
Islamism is different from Islam. Look them up
Being opposed to Islam isn't islamophobic. It's a religion, and therefore a philosophy, a belief system, and may be opposed. Exactly as you may be opposed to a political philosophy.
Similarly, being opposed to Judaism, the religion, isn't antisemitic.
You oppose the 10 commandments?
Some of them. But in any case people can support elements of a religious philosophy whilst being opposed to some fundamental tenets of the faith itself.
Someone might find a lot they like about the teachings of Jesus but still oppose the religious institutions promoting it, or just not agree with (and so oppose) fundamental aspects of its beliefs (eg that Jesus was the son of God).
Well Jews don't believe Jesus was the son of God
Not even in a roundabout way ?
Did they have roundabouts in the holy land?
They did when we drove from Jerusalem to Jericho !!!!
If they’d stopped at the stop line, instead of driving round the roundabout 7 times…
Don't go there please
Defintely don't drive round a roundabout 7 times.
You'll get dizzy.
First time I ever got pulled over for suspected drink driving was when I drove round a roundabout three times.
I wasn’t sure what exit to take…
How did ever drive in unknown places before SatNav.
Back in the 1960s, if my Dad was going on a long journey he wrote to the AA who, about a week later, sent him a detailed set of instructions of what roads to take and when and where to turn. The only drawback was that it required my Mum to read it to him. It looked something like this.
If I'm ever driving somewhere unfamiliar, I lool at a map before I go. I chiose a route, and go that way. It's rare any route in the UK is so complicated you can't memorise it at least until the last mile. It wasn't hard in tbe 90s and it's not hard now. Sat navs aren't even that goof at avoiding the traffic because it's sending every other fucker by the back roads too. Yet another innivation we didn't really need.
Like most technology, satnav and modern phone based equivalents are useful servants but poor masters.
I pretty much always run Google maps via Android auto through the car's screen wherever I'm going. Takes 10 seconds to give voice instructions. Google maps is so good at this, I can just say "drive to Screwfix " and it will find the nearest one without me knowing an address or even looking at the map on screen.
If it suggests a diversion due to traffic, you don't have to take it. Ignore it and it will keep searching for new alternatives. It never gets upset at being ignored, unlike my human driving companion. But after a while, if you have a good general sense of the road network around you, you will still find it useful to have Google maps tell you how much time it thinks you will save by altering your route. On the M5 south of Bristol, when summer arrives and the caravans on their under inflated 10 year old tyres emerge from their winter slumber, it has saved me literally hours by giving pinpoint accurate warning of where and how long traffic delays are. I still have to use my brain to decide whether the alternative route it suggests is likely to be as good as the ones I've worked out by trial and error over the years, but it's still giving me useful info.
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Luckyguy is a Kemi fan though he would likely go Reform if Cleverly replaced Kemi as Tory leader
Is opposing Judaism antisemitic? I'd say yes to that, so I'd also say yes to your question.
Islamism is different from Islam. Look them up
Being opposed to Islam isn't islamophobic. It's a religion, and therefore a philosophy, a belief system, and may be opposed. Exactly as you may be opposed to a political philosophy.
Similarly, being opposed to Judaism, the religion, isn't antisemitic.
You oppose the 10 commandments?
Some of them. But in any case people can support elements of a religious philosophy whilst being opposed to some fundamental tenets of the faith itself.
Someone might find a lot they like about the teachings of Jesus but still oppose the religious institutions promoting it, or just not agree with (and so oppose) fundamental aspects of its beliefs (eg that Jesus was the son of God).
Well Jews don't believe Jesus was the son of God
Not even in a roundabout way ?
Did they have roundabouts in the holy land?
They did when we drove from Jerusalem to Jericho !!!!
If they’d stopped at the stop line, instead of driving round the roundabout 7 times…
Don't go there please
Defintely don't drive round a roundabout 7 times.
You'll get dizzy.
First time I ever got pulled over for suspected drink driving was when I drove round a roundabout three times.
I wasn’t sure what exit to take…
How did ever drive in unknown places before SatNav.
Back in the 1960s, if my Dad was going on a long journey he wrote to the AA who, about a week later, sent him a detailed set of instructions of what roads to take and when and where to turn. The only drawback was that it required my Mum to read it to him. It looked something like this.
If I'm ever driving somewhere unfamiliar, I lool at a map before I go. I chiose a route, and go that way. It's rare any route in the UK is so complicated you can't memorise it at least until the last mile. It wasn't hard in tbe 90s and it's not hard now. Sat navs aren't even that goof at avoiding the traffic because it's sending every other fucker by the back roads too. Yet another innivation we didn't really need.
Sat Navs are mainly good for avoiding missing the turning. Provided you already agree with the route. I've ignored silly C-roads before.
Except on a roundabout where they are confusing, as they can't update and reorientate fast enough.
The most frustrating situation, I find, is emerging from an underground car park, especially in an unfamiliar city. You can't always stop while the system calculates position, and even then you've normally had to commit to a direction at a junction before there's enough motion data to allow the system to work out that you've committed to the wrong direction...
Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is in coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
The tactical voting and turnout is going to be interesting. I don't know much about this constituency/area, but would it be fertile ground for a local high profile left leaning independent candidate?
You mean like a Mr Burnham?
Yes. I was wondering about whether Andy Burnham is even considering the possibility after the events that unfolded before and after the Labour NEC vote, and also if he has the cojones to resign from the Labour party to run as an independent in this by-election?
I would imagine that this would not only pose a nightmare scenario to the Labour party, but also for the Greens and Reform too who also fancy their chances in this by-election. And because surely being prevented from even putting his hat in the ring as a possible Labour candidate by Starmer and the NEC would only enhance Andy Burnham's chances of winning the seat as an independent and what a powerful message that would send to the Labour party further weakening Keir Starmer's leadership, especially if he had some strong Union backing?
Jacob has some point in that Reform were second in the seat in 2024 and are best placed therefore to beat Labour and the Tories were 5th behind the Greens and Workers Party.
Farage of course stood candidates down for Tory MPs in Tory seats in 2019
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Luckyguy is a Kemi fan though he would likely go Reform if Cleverly replaced Kemi as Tory leader
TBF to the mods all social mediums decline over time. They rise they peak they fall. *insert quote from Ecclesiastes*
PB is no different. Also, we’ve just gotten older and the relative newcomers - like @bondegezou - are just fucking dreadful. So utterly, crushingly dull. I’d rather have excitable young Corbynites - stop laughing at the back - than this grey dreariness
Hey ho. I shall not repine. Somewhere out there is probably a new PB just being born. Full of funny well informed maverick nerds and nutters in their 20s 30s and 40s - like PB as was
Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is in coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
The tactical voting and turnout is going to be interesting. I don't know much about this constituency/area, but would it be fertile ground for a local high profile left leaning independent candidate?
You mean like a Mr Burnham?
Yes. I was wondering about whether Andy Burnham is even considering the possibility after the events that unfolded before and after the Labour NEC vote, and also if he has the cojones to resign from the Labour party to run as an independent in this by-election?
I would imagine that this would not only pose a nightmare scenario to the Labour party, but also for the Greens and Reform too who also fancy their chances in this by-election. And because surely being prevented from even putting his hat in the ring as a possible Labour candidate by Starmer and the NEC would only enhance Andy Burnham's chances of winning the seat as an independent and what a powerful message that would send to the Labour party further weakening Keir Starmer's leadership, especially if he had some strong Union backing?
What would be the point from Burnham's perspective? Sure he becomes an MP but as an independent party of one he'll have zero influence and nothing to do. Labour would never allow him to rejoin if he stood against and official candidate. Much better to remain Mayor of a massive city.
Jacob has some point in that Reform were second in the seat in 2024 and are best placed therefore to beat Labour and the Tories were 5th behind the Greens and Workers Party.
Farage of course stood candidates down for Tory MPs in Tory seats in 2019
If a Conservative candidate stands and JRM suggests voting for a different candidate, that would be reason to expel him from the party.
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Luckyguy is a Kemi fan though he would likely go Reform if Cleverly replaced Kemi as Tory leader
TBF to the mods all social mediums decline over time. They rise they peak they fall. *insert quote from Ecclesiastes*
PB is no different. Also, we’ve just gotten older and the relative newcomers - like @bondegezou - are just fucking dreadful. So utterly, crushingly dull. I’d rather have excitable young Corbynites - stop laughing at the back - than this grey dreariness
Hey ho. I shall not repine. Somewhere out there is probably a new PB just being born. Full of funny well informed maverick nerds and nutters in their 20s 30s and 40s - like PB as was
I wish them well
I think we still have some under 40s on here, even a few under 30, so there is hope
Jacob has some point in that Reform were second in the seat in 2024 and are best placed therefore to beat Labour and the Tories were 5th behind the Greens and Workers Party.
Farage of course stood candidates down for Tory MPs in Tory seats in 2019
If a Conservative candidate stands and JRM suggests voting for a different candidate, that would be reason to expel him from the party.
No it would not and as a Tory member of 30 years standing I would be appalled if such a thing was done to Jacob who is more Tory in the traditional sense than half of CCHQ! In any case JRM has said if a Tory candidate is selected he would back them but there hasn't been one selected yet
Gorton and Denton instinctively feels to me like a Green gain - combined Lab/Green vote in the GE was 64%. Now granted some of the Labour vote will have gone to Reform, is that enough to stop a figure of “the left” with that kind of constituency profile? I’m not convinced.
Reform’s best chance is in coming through the middle if Labour and the Greens split the vote. But I think it is far more likely that the Labour vote will simply collapse with both Reform and the Greens benefitting, but with the residual Green vote seeing them through. I could be wrong.
The tactical voting and turnout is going to be interesting. I don't know much about this constituency/area, but would it be fertile ground for a local high profile left leaning independent candidate?
You mean like a Mr Burnham?
Yes. I was wondering about whether Andy Burnham is even considering the possibility after the events that unfolded before and after the Labour NEC vote, and also if he has the cojones to resign from the Labour party to run as an independent in this by-election?
I would imagine that this would not only pose a nightmare scenario to the Labour party, but also for the Greens and Reform too who also fancy their chances in this by-election. And because surely being prevented from even putting his hat in the ring as a possible Labour candidate by Starmer and the NEC would only enhance Andy Burnham's chances of winning the seat as an independent and what a powerful message that would send to the Labour party further weakening Keir Starmer's leadership, especially if he had some strong Union backing?
What would be the point from Burnham's perspective? Sure he becomes an MP but as an independent party of one he'll have zero influence and nothing to do. Labour would never allow him to rejoin if he stood against and official candidate. Much better to remain Mayor of a massive city.
Burnham has said he will back the Labour candidate while remaining focused on his day job as Mayor now
Just had a look at the local elections in Denton and it was mostly Labour, Greens and Tories standing. No sign of Reform. Greens doing pretty well in fact, and this is supposed to be the weakest part of the seat for them.
During an interview tonight on Fox News, President Donald J. Trump confirmed that the “Commander-at-Large” of the United States Border Patrol (USBP), Gregory K. Bovino, would be leaving Minneapolis along with several agents, replaced by Tom Homan, the White House Border Czar. President Trump states that Bovino is “very good” but that he’s “a pretty out there kind of guy,” adding that maybe that wasn’t good in Minneapolis.
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Luckyguy is a Kemi fan though he would likely go Reform if Cleverly replaced Kemi as Tory leader
TBF to the mods all social mediums decline over time. They rise they peak they fall. *insert quote from Ecclesiastes*
PB is no different. Also, we’ve just gotten older and the relative newcomers - like @bondegezou - are just fucking dreadful. So utterly, crushingly dull. I’d rather have excitable young Corbynites - stop laughing at the back - than this grey dreariness
Hey ho. I shall not repine. Somewhere out there is probably a new PB just being born. Full of funny well informed maverick nerds and nutters in their 20s 30s and 40s - like PB as was
I wish them well
I was about 25 when I first started posting on PB in the mid 2000s, so I've done a good job of wasting the years since then on here, lol. I really have spent a ridiculous amount of time getting into pointless arguments with people who were never going to change their minds, because of course PB mostly attracts die-hards with very fixed political opinions.
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Felix is actively posting and liking.
And @MrEd has had several nom de plumes over the years. And I'm fairly sure @Sandpit counts as a Reform supporter.
For what it's worth, we also have barely any Green supporters either.
We are definitely overrepresented as far as "soft left, not sure exactly where", and conservatives.
FWIW, I'm currently a Ref voter, although I might vote tactically for the right sort of Tory if I was in a seat where Ref has no chance. I'm currently in High Peak, which was a Tory-Lab marginal - goodness only knows who'd win it at the moment, but I'm fairly likely to move before the next GE (unless Starmer government implodes very spectacularly in the next year or so) .
Doesn't necessarily mean I agree with everything everyone Ref adjacent says or does mind you - I just think they just seem more likely to fix at least some of the country's problems than all the alternatives (most of whom appear actively keen to make the country's problems worse).
Just had a look at the local elections in Denton and it was mostly Labour, Greens and Tories standing. No sign of Reform. Greens doing pretty well in fact, and this is supposed to be the weakest part of the seat for them.
Denton is the less ethnically diverse part of the constituency according to electoral calculus. That and the selection of an easily dislikeable candidate suggests laying Reform at current odds. Though a 4 way split on votes makes it all quite dicey
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Felix is actively posting and liking.
And @MrEd has had several nom de plumes over the years. And I'm fairly sure @Sandpit counts as a Reform supporter.
For what it's worth, we also have barely any Green supporters either.
We are definitely overrepresented as far as "soft left, not sure exactly where", and conservatives.
FWIW, I'm currently a Ref voter, although I might vote tactically for the right sort of Tory if I was in a seat where Ref has no chance. I'm currently in High Peak, which was a Tory-Lab marginal - goodness only knows who'd win it at the moment, but I'm fairly likely to move before the next GE (unless Starmer government implodes very spectacularly in the next year or so) .
Doesn't necessarily mean I agree with everything everyone Ref adjacent says or does mind you - I just think they just seem more likely to fix at least some of the country's problems than all the alternatives (most of whom appear actively keen to make the country's problems worse).
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Felix is actively posting and liking.
And @MrEd has had several nom de plumes over the years. And I'm fairly sure @Sandpit counts as a Reform supporter.
For what it's worth, we also have barely any Green supporters either.
We are definitely overrepresented as far as "soft left, not sure exactly where", and conservatives.
FWIW, I'm currently a Ref voter, although I might vote tactically for the right sort of Tory if I was in a seat where Ref has no chance. I'm currently in High Peak, which was a Tory-Lab marginal - goodness only knows who'd win it at the moment, but I'm fairly likely to move before the next GE (unless Starmer government implodes very spectacularly in the next year or so) .
Doesn't necessarily mean I agree with everything everyone Ref adjacent says or does mind you - I just think they just seem more likely to fix at least some of the country's problems than all the alternatives (most of whom appear actively keen to make the country's problems worse).
Come to mention it, I also forgot @williamglenn - although he might find Reform insufficiently Trumpian.
That thread - while, er, heartening for @JohnO - is depressing in several ways. First it’s still during Covid - the tail-end, mid 2021, but still in the storm even as it dies. Ugh
Secondly it shows how the PB rightwingers have been slowly eliminated. @felix - banned. @MrEd - banned. Etc
Which is why we are left with the bowl of thin gruel that is Modern PB. Weak sauce centrism. The Endless Dads. Heat pumps and roundabouts
How many regular commenters are clear Reform supporters? I think it’s me and @Luckyguy1983 - @isam has returned to the Tories (as is his right, of course)
We probably have ~100 regular commenters. So we have 2% Reform on PB. Yet out there in the UK Reform are the most popular party on 25-34%, depending on your flavour of pollster
We used to congratulate ourselves that PB was a civilised if rowdy venue that represented Britain, politically. That was never entirely true but it was true enough to be encouraging
The idea is now laughable
Luckyguy is a Kemi fan though he would likely go Reform if Cleverly replaced Kemi as Tory leader
TBF to the mods all social mediums decline over time. They rise they peak they fall. *insert quote from Ecclesiastes*
PB is no different. Also, we’ve just gotten older and the relative newcomers - like @bondegezou - are just fucking dreadful. So utterly, crushingly dull. I’d rather have excitable young Corbynites - stop laughing at the back - than this grey dreariness
Hey ho. I shall not repine. Somewhere out there is probably a new PB just being born. Full of funny well informed maverick nerds and nutters in their 20s 30s and 40s - like PB as was
I wish them well
I was about 25 when I first started posting on PB in the mid 2000s, so I've done a good job of wasting the years since then on here, lol. I really have spent a ridiculous amount of time getting into pointless arguments with people who were never going to change their minds, because of course PB mostly attracts die-hards with very fixed political opinions.
Assuming I've never had to sign up for Vanilla again, and thus it's date for my registration is correct, I was 26 when I delurked, almost 13 years ago, but I've been following PB much longer - I remember the era of unthreaded comments before Vanilla, when a response would just have a comment number to indicate the comment to which it was a reply...
Comments
"So, the Labour leader is safe. For now. But the PM’s security is fragile, indeed.
On May 7, there will be elections to local authorities across England and to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments. Predicted losses for Labour will sharpen focus on Sir Keir’s inadequacies.
But the Prime Minister is not the only senior Labour figure whose political future now hangs in the balance.
A poor result for his party in the Holyrood election will only add to mounting speculation over the future of Anas Sarwar."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15503125/EUAN-MCCOLM-Burnham-debacle-leaves-Starmer-looking-weaker-theres-Labour-leader-gone-PM.html
For what it's worth, we also have barely any Green supporters either.
We are definitely overrepresented as far as "soft left, not sure exactly where", and conservatives.
I only voted Tory once; in 2019 to GBD, but I must say I am more inclined towards them than Reform at the moment. I can’t put my finger on why exactly, I have a feeling it’s that I like an underdog, and Reform seem a bit too cocky and Americanised, if I can say that, for me. Also, I just don’t think PM Farage be good for the country, even if I agree with him. It will be non stop fighting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lILQAd8XG7c
None of Trumps Military Advisors and Leaders will sign off a mission in Iran without clear, achievable objectives to tick off - because without clear objectives, how do they clearly present the risks from doing it?
Similar on the political advisor side, how many people killed (for it won’t just be US military deaths in the Iran+proxy’s war with US and allies) for it to erode Trump and all Republican candidates the coming elections in opinion polls?
I am starting to think renaming Gulf of Mexico to Gulf of USA was some minds are full of oil underneath it, and Trumps Gun Boat diplomacy on Venezuela is about Oil - surely attempting regime change in Iran would stand out a mile as being about oil, regardless what reasons were given?
1 - A bit over a decade ago he was an academic writing writing reports for them:
https://www.channel4.com/media/c4-news/images/voting-to-violence (7).pdf
2 - I think there will be parallels seen with East London around 2010, when the BNP were pursuing their "Suited and Booted" strategy.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/14/general-election-2010-fall-bnp
3 - This is their recent analysis of Goodwin. They see him as an opportunist.
https://hopenothate.org.uk/state-of-hate-2025-matthew-goodwin/
I pretty much always run Google maps via Android auto through the car's screen wherever I'm going. Takes 10 seconds to give voice instructions. Google maps is so good at this, I can just say "drive to Screwfix " and it will find the nearest one without me knowing an address or even looking at the map on screen.
If it suggests a diversion due to traffic, you don't have to take it. Ignore it and it will keep searching for new alternatives. It never gets upset at being ignored, unlike my human driving companion. But after a while, if you have a good general sense of the road network around you, you will still find it useful to have Google maps tell you how much time it thinks you will save by altering your route. On the M5 south of Bristol, when summer arrives and the caravans on their under inflated 10 year old tyres emerge from their winter slumber, it has saved me literally hours by giving pinpoint accurate warning of where and how long traffic delays are. I still have to use my brain to decide whether the alternative route it suggests is likely to be as good as the ones I've worked out by trial and error over the years, but it's still giving me useful info.
I would imagine that this would not only pose a nightmare scenario to the Labour party, but also for the Greens and Reform too who also fancy their chances in this by-election. And because surely being prevented from even putting his hat in the ring as a possible Labour candidate by Starmer and the NEC would only enhance Andy Burnham's chances of winning the seat as an independent and what a powerful message that would send to the Labour party further weakening Keir Starmer's leadership, especially if he had some strong Union backing?
Farage of course stood candidates down for Tory MPs in Tory seats in 2019
PB is no different. Also, we’ve just gotten older and the relative newcomers - like @bondegezou - are just fucking dreadful. So utterly, crushingly dull. I’d rather have excitable young Corbynites - stop laughing at the back - than this grey dreariness
Hey ho. I shall not repine. Somewhere out there is probably a new PB just being born. Full of funny well informed maverick nerds and nutters in their 20s 30s and 40s - like PB as was
I wish them well
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tameside_Metropolitan_Borough_Council_election#Denton_North_East
During an interview tonight on Fox News, President Donald J. Trump confirmed that the “Commander-at-Large” of the United States Border Patrol (USBP), Gregory K. Bovino, would be leaving Minneapolis along with several agents, replaced by Tom Homan, the White House Border Czar. President Trump states that Bovino is “very good” but that he’s “a pretty out there kind of guy,” adding that maybe that wasn’t good in Minneapolis.
Doesn't necessarily mean I agree with everything everyone Ref adjacent says or does mind you - I just think they just seem more likely to fix at least some of the country's problems than all the alternatives (most of whom appear actively keen to make the country's problems worse).
I also think @Taz is probably Reform-friendly.