There is still time to enter the 2026 PB Predictions Competition – politicalbetting.com
There is still time to enter the 2026 PB Predictions Competition – politicalbetting.com
To enter you simply need to post your answers to the following 12 questions onto the site before the end of January with the hashtag #competition somewhere in the post to help the scorer (me) find your entry. Or, you can private message me @Benpointer with your entry answers.
0
Comments
avoid a conflict of interest with the prizegive other PBers a chance of winning the competition.Yes, let us stick with that.
Breaking news: Composer Philip Glass withdrew his highly anticipated Symphony No. 15 from its scheduled Kennedy Center performance, saying “the values of the Kennedy Center today are in direct conflict with the message of the Symphony.”
https://bsky.app/profile/washingtonpost.com/post/3mdg5suxn3i2n
Imagine a bucket full of rabid, hungry rats.
Imagine their feral, furious combat.
That's what's happening in the White House today.
The name doesn't matter really, although if I was Glass I'd probably not want my work to premier in a Trump labelled place, and mostly that'd be about the ghastly commercialism rather than the politics.
New: Canadian PM Mark Carney dismissed the idea he “walked back” his statements in Davos during a call with President Trump. “To be absolutely clear, and I said this to the president: I meant what I said in Davos," Carney
told the CBC before a cabinet meeting. Carney added that “Canada was the first country to understand the change in US trade policy that he had initiated – and we’re responding to that.”
So yes, the values have changed
Second and third sound like more interesting markets to me than first. In all cases, just back anything long and lay anything short.... need to decide what long and short mean though first... suggestions welcome...
Yes, it has become part of trump's corruption. The place is being run as a benefit club for Trump's friends and allies, with discounts being offered to his friends and allies - damaging it's finances. There are far more complimentary tickets for Trump associates.
eg Rent free for FIFA, costing $5 million.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/12/06/politics/trump-kennedy-center-takeover
Noem didn't get fired. ICE are staying in Minnesota
*Mark Knoffler being another one
More bad news for Keir Starmer: the Guardian's leader writers have begun to compare him to Joe Biden, “clinging on” to power “when he ought to have allowed a better candidate” to take over, handing victory to the far right
Difficult to say how much of the change is down the philistines in charge, and how much to the ongoing cultural boycott.
Trump's greatest contribution has been to specify solid marble... armrests for the seating.
https://archive.is/20251210231211/https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-lede/how-the-kennedy-center-has-been-transformed-by-trumpism
If anyone knows one, I'd like to see a study on programme changes.
I think that "dumbed down and politicised" is perhaps a decent description, in the same way that Mussolini etc banned "degenerate" art.
A kind of odd and creepy supremacist thinking is certainly swilling around in the USA (obvs) and the outer fringes of UK fascism. But I would need to be sure Goodwin really shares that sort of thinking. So I do wonder if he really knows exactly what sort of company he may be keeping.
Later Edit: I see the Guardian is taking an interest in this issue
The PM is not going to be a "candidate" until a general election perhaps three years away.
Starmer is in trouble because he's failed to get anything done; Biden did rather a lot in the first half of his term, delivered an unexpectedly decent result in the midterms, but failed to recognise he was too old to carry on.
Biden was frustrated by an opposition majority in the the House of Representatives; Starmer has a massive majority.
SCOOP from
@ZeffMax
: Google DeepMind staffers have asked company leaders for plans and policies to keep employees physically safe from ICE. So far no senior leaders from Google have responded to the message. Google’s top brass—including Pichai and Hassabis—have remained silent on Pretti’s killing even inside the company, sources say.
Also cratering in the polls, and unwilling to anoint a successor.
Is he also like Starmer ?
If Labour really want a change of PM, there's a simple party mechanism, albeit with fairly high hurdles to clear. Changing PMs midterm isn't unthinkable, it's almost routine these days.
Getting rid of a sitting President is a drastic measure which involves the entire legislature, or the untried (and completely uncertain) process of the 25th Amendment.
It's just an empty comparison which doesn't add anything to our understanding of the situation.
"... I think adding discredited and unpopular ex-Tory politicians to Reform contradicts Reform’s key message. That message is: The Establishment Parties Have Failed And We Are Different.
"The failure is plausible but it’s hard to argue for Reform’s difference when it becomes a kind of loopy facsimile of past Tory cabinets. This seems a risky ploy for Farage. Liz Truss may not be a member of Reform but we all know that if she votes at the next general election she’s more likely to vote Reform than Conservative.
"I suspect that far from proving Reform is ready for government, this sort of thing confirms they are not. The more interesting question, however, is whether or not the people voting Reform actually want Farage to become Prime Minister. I am not sure they do. Or, to put it another way, it is easier to vote Reform if you think this is really just a protest vote than it is if you think Reform might actually win. If so, the closer Farage comes to Downing Street, the harder it will be for him to actually get there.
"There is some precedent for this. In 2017, a vote for Jeremy Corbyn was seen as an essentially harmless act of protest. In 2019, a vote for Jeremy Corbyn carried the real risk he might somehow end up in Downing Street. This is the single simplest and most compelling explanation for why Labour did very well in 2017 and very badly in 2019.
"Reform isn’t quite at that stage yet. But it may get there eventually. The sweet spot for Farage is for him to always be on the brink of being a credible Prime Minister without every actually quite being taken seriously as such by the electorate."
Has anyone asked him about the imbroglio of the legal situation around the Captain of the arrested oil tanker being transferred to a USA navy vessel in UK waters where a Scottish Court * says they have no jurisdiction?
It's a bit abstruse for me, but it has a feel of the shenanigans where Bush and Obama fought like terriers for many years to keep the random Guantanamo detainees outside USA law. To me it all looks highly "bend over for Uncle Sam" in an Anne Sacoulas sort of way - the UK looking the other way whilst the USA changes facts in the ground, with the extradition process being completely excluded.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgqep9pvygko
* But afaics they have issued an injunction to stop the UK Government transferring the captives held by the USN to United States jurisdiction, which is ludicrous..
I really like his music. Works surprisingly well in an opera format.
https://x.com/standardnews/status/2016163423441059954?s=61
Mauritius has confirmed Diego Garcia military base will be banned from storing nuclear weapons if Chagos deal goes ahead
Paul Berenger, the Mauritius Deputy PM, said the African Nuclear weapon-free zone treaty will affect the base
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHsq0-ysej0
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Films_scored_by_Philip_Glass
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/20/trump-inauguration-tech-executives
On Holocaust Memorial Day, here’s Tim Walz urging communities to come together and celebrate peace and love.
No sorry I got that wrong, here’s Tim Walz comaparing illegal immigrants in Minnesota with Anne Frank in Amsterdam.
https://x.com/endwokeness/status/2015512343887708359
The podcast star talks about Britain’s decline, the dangers of mass migration, and why Farage may have the answers"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/01/27/the-daily-t-britain-konstantin-kisin-reform-farage/
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jan/27/matthew-goodwin-gorton-and-denton-reform-uk-minorities
Question is will it be the referendum that Goodwin wants it to be, on Starmer - or a referendum on Reform and these sort of views.
Point is you can vote against both with the Greens.
This by-election could be quite incendiary and I think the higher the stakes, the more likely we are to see a Caerphilly-type result, with the Greens the winners aided by a huge tactical vote.
Although I think by that criteria only a very small number of English monarchs would meet that criteria - Elizabeth and her half-brother, her father, her great grandfather and his brother. After that I'm struggling.
Scotland is I think actually still less qualified - Robert I, David II, Robert II, Robert III, James I and James II were a good run, but then the trend for foreign spouses kicked in again.
From wiki:
In February 2025, Kisin interviewed Fraser Nelson on his Triggernometry podcast. During the interview, Nelson discussed Rishi Sunak and said "He is absolutely English – he was born and bred here". Kisin responded by saying "He’s a brown Hindu; how is he English?"[44]
Their policy platform of wealth tax now, free Gaza, transvestives are women, open borders, just nuts and nothing at all on the environment.
Mad I know, but 7 seems value now Goodwin is the candidate.
New - Trump approval (Hispanic voters)
🟢 Approve 53% (+8)
🟤 Disapprove 45%
Last month - 🟤 Disapprove +20 (28% shift ⏩ 🟢)
Rasmussen #B - RV - 1/22
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/2016141630936387769?s=61
Perhaps Matt Goodwin will end up the Tony Cooke de nos jours? You could arguably say the same for Badenoch, Davey and Polanski.
https://x.com/UKLabour/status/2016186186289524758
Maybe he'll challenge Farage for the leadership/CEO position.
Reform will win when and only when the attraction of other parties being in Government is less than the distraction likely if Reform gets into Government.
Most changes of Government don't occur because of enthusiasm for the opposition but more because the Government has (or seems to have) run out of time and road and people have got to the point when the alternative (despite its obvious flaws) is or appears less worse.
(Our study) found that a significant portion of the Ukip base closely resembled that of the BNP: while less intense, they comprise a poorer, more working-class and more deeply disconnected wing within the party that is driven not simply by Euroscepticism but also their profound concern about immigration and dissatisfaction with the three main parties. Ukip denies these associations with the radical right, but both parties are pitching a far-right formula and rallying a radical right base.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/mar/12/ukip-far-right-bnp
It's like Runcorn; Labour nopt winning is a significant downside for them, but if RefUK win, like Sarah Pochin there may be a good crop of faceplants in the future. But I don't think Goodwin will be as crass as Pochin.
And no, they are not worse than Reform. Their policies are pretty unrealistic, but are at least grounded in reality, while Reform are complete fantasists as well as utter shits.
Is it not stronger leadership to have some massive rebellions and lose some votes, rather than pull key policy like welfare reform?