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edited February 2015 in General

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Politicalbetting's Marf pic.twitter.com/77jftpUwgh

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  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,325
    Inside the pink bus...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Chap from Ipsos-Mori tweets

    nothing directly relevant (though shameless plug: our Political Monitor is out tomorrow and it's a corker)
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Just backed Labour Majority @ 24.0 on betfair, longest ever. Bad poll tonight?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @jerryhayes1: So Chuka won't repeat the privileged protected comment of Ed about Fink on LBC. There is a message here and it is pretty obvious.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    edited February 2015
    Tissue_Price said:

    Just backed Labour Majority @ 24.0 on betfair, longest ever. Bad poll tonight?

    I wonder if it is linked to the Ipsos-Mori.

    If it was YouGov then normally Tom Newton-Dunn gives us a tantalising tweet by now
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Tissue_Price said:

    Just backed Labour Majority @ 24.0 on betfair, longest ever. Bad poll tonight?

    Just traded at 32.0

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    It's still dark when I get up in the mornings, and so often my curtains don't get opened at all.

    Luckily my bicycle is squeaky enough that none of the neighbours will mistake me for one of Osborne's shirkers having an all-day lie-in...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    lab maj 29 on betfair !
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    This IPSOS-Mori is the one that L&N usually base their final forecast on.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Coalition finds itself "not guilty" (shock result there)

    "A separate coalition motion was approved pointing out that "while the release of information pertaining to malpractice between 2005 to 2007 by individual HSBC account holders was public knowledge, at no point were ministers made aware of individual cases due to taxpayer confidentiality or made aware of leaked information suggesting wrongdoing by HSBC itself" and notes "that this Government has specifically taken action to get back money lost in Swiss bank accounts".
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RodCrosby said:

    Just traded at 32.0

    How can this be happening?

    Pinkbus is a triumph! Ed defaming Swiss residents is a triumphant rallying cry for the left.

    Apparently...
  • isamisam Posts: 42,398
    TGOHF said:

    lab maj 29 on betfair !

    2 mins after Rod reported it traded 32... gotta love H
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,451
    Ipsos MORI is in the same ballpark as Lord Ashcroft, so I suspect that's a fair Conservative lead. If so, that would mean the Conservatives led with three out of four telephone pollsters.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sean_F said:

    Ipsos MORI is in the same ballpark as Lord Ashcroft, so I suspect that's a fair Conservative lead. If so, that would mean the Conservatives led with three out of four telephone pollsters.

    Maybe the polling lead finally falling into line with the PM approval forecast?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Sean_F said:

    Ipsos MORI is in the same ballpark as Lord Ashcroft, so I suspect that's a fair Conservative lead. If so, that would mean the Conservatives led with three out of four telephone pollsters.

    Could be a big Labour lead.

    Could be a major change in the leader ratings.

    But more likely it is the Greens in third place, which fits the definition of corker.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    This might be based on tonight's YouGovnot MORI. There'll be a wide knowledge of that about
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Continuity coalition now favourite next govt on Betfair.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Hung Parliament now 1.22 / 1.23 with Betfair.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?nodeId=MENU:2707982&id=1.101416490
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    MikeSmithson said:

    This might be based on tonight's YouGovnot MORI. There'll be a wide knowledge of that about

    "Might" :D ?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    TGOHF said:

    @jerryhayes1: So Chuka won't repeat the privileged protected comment of Ed about Fink on LBC. There is a message here and it is pretty obvious.

    As Shadow Secretary of State for Business, Chuka has to build relationships with the people Ed Miliband is insulting.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheWatcher said:

    As Shadow Secretary of State for Business, Chuka has to build relationships with the people Ed Miliband is insulting.

    As Shadow Secretary of State for Business, one of the chosen ones to replace Ed when he loses, Chuka has to build relationships with the people Ed Miliband is insulting.

    Fixed it for you
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    This is sooo exciting.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,451
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    Ipsos MORI is in the same ballpark as Lord Ashcroft, so I suspect that's a fair Conservative lead. If so, that would mean the Conservatives led with three out of four telephone pollsters.

    Could be a big Labour lead.

    Could be a major change in the leader ratings.

    But more likely it is the Greens in third place, which fits the definition of corker.
    Greens in third place would be more like "meh". The Greens have had their fun, but they're not going above 7% or so, on average. A big Labour lead would be a corker, but that doesn't seem to be how things Ar moving.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,398
    edited February 2015
    TGOHF said:

    Continuity coalition now favourite next govt on Betfair.

    Paint drying in newly decorated house

    What was previous favourite?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Do Ipsos/MORI do Scottish polling? It could be a massive lead for the SNP which would explain why Labour have moved out to 30.
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 356
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    Ipsos MORI is in the same ballpark as Lord Ashcroft, so I suspect that's a fair Conservative lead. If so, that would mean the Conservatives led with three out of four telephone pollsters.

    Could be a big Labour lead.

    Could be a major change in the leader ratings.

    But more likely it is the Greens in third place, which fits the definition of corker.
    Why would a big Labour lead send the price out?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Labour majority back in to 21/25 now
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The one thing it can't be is a big Labour lead...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    AndyJS said:

    Do Ipsos/MORI do Scottish polling? It could be a massive lead for the SNP which would explain why Labour have moved out to 30.

    They do, but their next Scottish poll won't be out for a few weeks.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    AndyJS said:

    Do Ipsos/MORI do Scottish polling? It could be a massive lead for the SNP which would explain why Labour have moved out to 30.

    The Scottish sub-sample only about 130 people.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Lab majority blipped out, con majority hasn't come in

    Lib Dems in 3rd ?!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    One thing is for sure, some journo is sitting on the embargoed poll tradingt betfair as we speak.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing is for sure, some journo is sitting on the embargoed poll tradingt betfair as we speak.

    Lol, Patrick Wintour and Tom Clark said they and most journalists wouldn't have an effing clue on how to trade out on a poll they had.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,432
    Very likeable cartoon from Marf.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    So if the YouGov doesn't have a mahoosive Tory lead.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Could it me an interestingly supplementary?

    Something like neck and neck on normal VI.

    But when you mention the leaders' name, large Tory lead?

    Is so much fun speculating.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited February 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One thing is for sure, some journo is sitting on the embargoed poll tradingt betfair as we speak.

    Lol, Patrick Wintour and Tom Clark said they and most journalists wouldn't have an effing clue on how to trade out on a poll they had.
    At 2115 on 2010 election day I was doing 5Live prog and was told the exit poll. There was sod all I could do.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One thing is for sure, some journo is sitting on the embargoed poll tradingt betfair as we speak.

    Lol, Patrick Wintour and Tom Clark said they and most journalists wouldn't have an effing clue on how to trade out on a poll they had.
    At 2115 on 2010 election day I was doing 5Live prog and was told the exit poll. There was sod all I could do.

    Well if the same thing happens this year, you can send me a text.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Could it me an interestingly supplementary?

    Something like neck and neck on normal VI.

    But when you mention the leaders' name, large Tory lead?

    Is so much fun speculating.

    Calm down, you'll to have to get the missis to give you a rub down with a damp daily telegraph the way you're going on.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Darn, I was willing to take some action at 30/1.

    That's basically betting on a big scandal to hit the Conservatives between now and election day.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited February 2015
    Still, reminded me I got on NOM at a decent price.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,666
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So if the YouGov doesn't have a mahoosive Tory lead.....

    They will lose their gold standard, surely? ;-)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,451
    MikeSmithson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One thing is for sure, some journo is sitting on the embargoed poll tradingt betfair as we speak.

    Lol, Patrick Wintour and Tom Clark said they and most journalists wouldn't have an effing clue on how to trade out on a poll they had.
    At 2115 on 2010 election day I was doing 5Live prog and was told the exit poll. There was sod all I could do.

    John Curtice told us what the election result was, before a single constituency had declared.

    I thought the Lib Dems would get 80-90 seats, and couldn't believe they'd fallen back.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So if the YouGov doesn't have a mahoosive Tory lead.....

    They will lose their gold standard, surely? ;-)
    They lost it last night with their clear outlier.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Hmm I have no idea bout the poll but Labour most seats, Labour most votes was at 4.3 on Betfair and that price looked very very wrong so I took all £2 of it.

    This is how I bet...
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So if the YouGov doesn't have a mahoosive Tory lead.....

    They will lose their gold standard, surely? ;-)
    If a pollster never produces outliers then you should assume something's wrong.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,666
    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So if the YouGov doesn't have a mahoosive Tory lead.....

    They will lose their gold standard, surely? ;-)
    If a pollster never produces outliers then you should assume something's wrong.

    Yes, it would suggest there was some massaging going on (though I'm not suggesting this is actually happening!)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So if the YouGov doesn't have a mahoosive Tory lead.....

    They will lose their gold standard, surely? ;-)
    If a pollster never produces outliers then you should assume something's wrong.

    I really don't like the way Populus and Opinium have suddenly decided they have the UKIP fogure too low/high respectively. Herding effects etc...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    justin124 said:

    How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.

    You need to check your sarcasm meter.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Very likeable cartoon from Marf.

    Yes. There's something efficient and, je n'est c'est quoi, minimalist about it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,666
    justin124 said:

    How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.

    Any poll with a Labour lead is an outlier. The PB Tory Golden Rule, and one I ascribe to! ;)
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Dark forces afoot.............
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,792
    Alistair said:

    Darn, I was willing to take some action at 30/1.

    That's basically betting on a big scandal to hit the Conservatives between now and election day.

    That cannot be safely ruled out, Alistair.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Alistair said:

    Darn, I was willing to take some action at 30/1.

    That's basically betting on a big scandal to hit the Conservatives between now and election day.

    That cannot be safely ruled out, Alistair.
    Neither can a Labour one. After today, someone will be digging.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So if the YouGov doesn't have a mahoosive Tory lead.....

    Could be Kippers down on single figures...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    Is something happening?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,398
    edited February 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.

    You need to check your sarcasm meter.
    Last month you said UKIP on 18% was an outlier when there were 4 or 5 18%s in a week.. when I mentioned it you told me I didn't know how to look at statistics, which is a bit worrying as it is my job
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So if the YouGov doesn't have a mahoosive Tory lead.....

    Could be Kippers down on single figures...
    Would that really be so exciting. No offence but I'd be expecting something significant in the Labour/Tory shares.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So if the YouGov doesn't have a mahoosive Tory lead.....

    Could be Kippers down on single figures...
    If UKIP in single figures I'd expect CON boost

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.

    You need to check your sarcasm meter.
    Last month you said UKIP on 18% was an outlier when there 4 or 5 18%s in a week.. when I mentioned it you told me I didn't know how to look at statistics, which is a bit worrying as it is my job
    My comment applied to YouGov.

    Tell me how many times they've hit 18 since then with YouGov?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Labour’s parliamentary candidate for Bedford Patrick Hall to keep severance pay cash if re-elected":

    http://www.bedfordshire-news.co.uk/Labour-8217-s-parliamentary-candidate-Bedford/story-25987102-detail/story.htm
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,792
    TheWatcher said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Alistair said:

    Darn, I was willing to take some action at 30/1.

    That's basically betting on a big scandal to hit the Conservatives between now and election day.

    That cannot be safely ruled out, Alistair.
    Neither can a Labour one. After today, someone will be digging.
    Alistair is a fellow punter and will appreciate why I made the remark.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Lucky, Lucky Chelsea
  • isamisam Posts: 42,398
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.

    You need to check your sarcasm meter.
    Last month you said UKIP on 18% was an outlier when there 4 or 5 18%s in a week.. when I mentioned it you told me I didn't know how to look at statistics, which is a bit worrying as it is my job
    My comment applied to YouGov.

    Tell me how many times they've hit 18 since then with YouGov?
    Wouldn't know, don't really follow it that closely
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    I am not surprised at Labour's tactics today. This is the party that sought to smear Cameron's wife and child and Osborne's wife.

    To me that was despicable. Seems they haven't changed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.

    You need to check your sarcasm meter.
    Last month you said UKIP on 18% was an outlier when there 4 or 5 18%s in a week.. when I mentioned it you told me I didn't know how to look at statistics, which is a bit worrying as it is my job
    My comment applied to YouGov.

    Tell me how many times they've hit 18 since then with YouGov?
    Wouldn't know, don't really follow it that closely
    They haven't hit 18% with YouGov after I said 18% with YouGov was an outlier.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Cyclefree said:

    I am not surprised at Labour's tactics today. This is the party that sought to smear Cameron's wife and child and Osborne's wife.

    To me that was despicable. Seems they haven't changed.

    "Labour is nothing if not a moral crusade........"

    They really are hypocritical pond life.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The severance pay MPs get is a disgrace IMO. Nice to know Patrick Hall has already spent the £54,000 he received in 2010 on losing his seat in Bedford. Mike Hancock is on course to get it if he stands as an independent in Portsmouth South.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,398
    edited February 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.

    You need to check your sarcasm meter.
    Last month you said UKIP on 18% was an outlier when there 4 or 5 18%s in a week.. when I mentioned it you told me I didn't know how to look at statistics, which is a bit worrying as it is my job
    My comment applied to YouGov.

    Tell me how many times they've hit 18 since then with YouGov?
    Wouldn't know, don't really follow it that closely
    They haven't hit 18% with YouGov after I said 18% with YouGov was an outlier.
    Oh so an outlier means the highest out of a weeks polls does it? I thought it was one that was a long way outside the range

    EDIT: Actually I think you are wrong to say they haven't hit 18% since you called the 18% an outlier
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Floater said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I am not surprised at Labour's tactics today. This is the party that sought to smear Cameron's wife and child and Osborne's wife.

    To me that was despicable. Seems they haven't changed.

    "Labour is nothing if not a moral crusade........"

    They really are hypocritical pond life.
    I'm not fearing a Labour government, but I was taken with this point from this morning:

    They seem to regard the support of non-Tories as an entitlement

    which is something I think is very true, and something which gets my back up about Labour more than happens with other parties. In their defence, as it is generally expected that the people who dislike the Tories do so more intensely, on average, than those who dislike Labour, it would be hard for the Tories to develop a sense of entitlement about non-Labour people being 'expected' to vote for them, because the narrative is that it happens less. I recall being really annoyed in 2010 with the assumption that as I had voted LD I must be part of the anti-Tory majority who must surely have felt betrayed by the Coalition.

    Granted, about half of those voted LD then did feel so immediately, and another quarter or so of that original amount have since disappeared as well, so it is not as though there is >no basis for the entitlement, but I think it goes a little far.

    For partisan Tories, someone voting other than Tory is just a mistake. For partisan Labourites, voting other than Labour, if you are not a Tory, is a betrayal of the left. At least, the extremists would say so.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.

    You need to check your sarcasm meter.
    Last month you said UKIP on 18% was an outlier when there 4 or 5 18%s in a week.. when I mentioned it you told me I didn't know how to look at statistics, which is a bit worrying as it is my job
    My comment applied to YouGov.

    Tell me how many times they've hit 18 since then with YouGov?
    Wouldn't know, don't really follow it that closely
    They haven't hit 18% with YouGov after I said 18% with YouGov was an outlier.
    Oh so an outlier means the highest out of a weeks polls does it? I thought it was one that was a long way outside the range
    No. I explained at the time what I meant at the time. Look up average and standard deviation. It might help you.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AndyJS said:

    The severance pay MPs get is a disgrace IMO. Nice to know Patrick Hall has already spent the £54,000 he received in 2010 on losing his seat in Bedford. Mike Hancock is on course to get it if he stands as an independent in Portsmouth South.

    Pay an remuneration of MPs is a really tricky one. Too much and they are troughing, too little and it becomes the purview of the rich only.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.

    You need to check your sarcasm meter.
    Last month you said UKIP on 18% was an outlier when there 4 or 5 18%s in a week.. when I mentioned it you told me I didn't know how to look at statistics, which is a bit worrying as it is my job
    My comment applied to YouGov.

    Tell me how many times they've hit 18 since then with YouGov?
    Wouldn't know, don't really follow it that closely
    They haven't hit 18% with YouGov after I said 18% with YouGov was an outlier.
    Oh so an outlier means the highest out of a weeks polls does it? I thought it was one that was a long way outside the range

    EDIT: Actually I think you are wrong to say they haven't hit 18% since you called the 18% an outlier
    Of course we only know what the actual outliers were when we have the election and plot an adjusted moving average looking back...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    edited February 2015
    Honestly I do hope there is a Tory lead of more than 1 pt - it's happened once or twice I think, but it's always entertaining when it does, and if it could be sustained makes the GE more interesting a fight as well, so there's not much downside to it. Frankly I'm getting bored with my own opinion that Labour are on course for a majority so long as they shore up Scotland a bit, which in fairness is not guaranteed.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    Has Miliband repeated his Fink accusation outside the safe confines of Parliament yet?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I am not surprised at Labour's tactics today. This is the party that sought to smear Cameron's wife and child and Osborne's wife.

    To me that was despicable. Seems they haven't changed.

    "Labour is nothing if not a moral crusade........"

    They really are hypocritical pond life.
    I'm not fearing a Labour government, but I was taken with this point from this morning:

    They seem to regard the support of non-Tories as an entitlement

    which is something I think is very true, and something which gets my back up about Labour more than happens with other parties. In their defence, as it is generally expected that the people who dislike the Tories do so more intensely, on average, than those who dislike Labour, it would be hard for the Tories to develop a sense of entitlement about non-Labour people being 'expected' to vote for them, because the narrative is that it happens less. I recall being really annoyed in 2010 with the assumption that as I had voted LD I must be part of the anti-Tory majority who must surely have felt betrayed by the Coalition.

    Granted, about half of those voted LD then did feel so immediately, and another quarter or so of that original amount have since disappeared as well, so it is not as though there is >no basis for the entitlement, but I think it goes a little far.

    For partisan Tories, someone voting other than Tory is just a mistake. For partisan Labourites, voting other than Labour, if you are not a Tory, is a betrayal of the left. At least, the extremists would say so.
    Far too many pb Tories regard voting Labour as a sign of corruption: since no-one sane would vote Labour, the party must be dependent on a client state of dole scroungers and public sector workers.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    TheWatcher said:

    Has Miliband repeated his Fink accusation outside the safe confines of Parliament yet?

    I don't think he will dare. I wonder if this is a big mistake by EdM.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @DecrepitJohnL

    'Far too many pb Tories regard voting Labour as a sign of corruption: since no-one sane would vote Labour, the party must be dependent on a client state of dole scroungers and public sector workers'.

    You forgot Guardian readers & immigrants.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    edited February 2015
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I am not surprised at Labour's tactics today. This is the party that sought to smear Cameron's wife and child and Osborne's wife.

    To me that was despicable. Seems they haven't changed.

    "Labour is nothing if not a moral crusade........"

    They really are hypocritical pond life.
    I'm not fearing a Labour government, but I was taken with this point from this morning:

    They seem to regard the support of non-Tories as an entitlement

    which is something I think is very true, and something which gets my back up about Labour more than happens with other parties. In their defence, as it is generally expected that the people who dislike the Tories do so more intensely, on average, than those who dislike Labour, it would be hard for the Tories to develop a sense of entitlement about non-Labour people being 'expected' to vote for them, because the narrative is that it happens less. I recall being really annoyed in 2010 with the assumption that as I had voted LD I must be part of the anti-Tory majority who must surely have felt betrayed by the Coalition.

    Granted, about half of those voted LD then did feel so immediately, and another quarter or so of that original amount have since disappeared as well, so it is not as though there is >no basis for the entitlement, but I think it goes a little far.

    For partisan Tories, someone voting other than Tory is just a mistake. For partisan Labourites, voting other than Labour, if you are not a Tory, is a betrayal of the left. At least, the extremists would say so.
    Far too many pb Tories regard voting Labour as a sign of corruption: since no-one sane would vote Labour, the party must be dependent on a client state of dole scroungers and public sector workers.
    Which is an unfair view in its own right, granted, although while thinking voting for your opponent is a sign of idiocy is unfortunate, I do place it a smidgeon below thinking people who vote differently to you are betraying your side (rather than betraying your country, which both sides may well believe) as though the vote belongs with them, in terms of offensiveness. But it's a subjective gradient of silly opinions I think, and the stages are close together.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Cyclefree said:

    I am not surprised at Labour's tactics today. This is the party that sought to smear Cameron's wife and child and Osborne's wife.

    To me that was despicable. Seems they haven't changed.

    Yeah my last respect for Miliband deserted today. I though it was puke-making tbh. Vile and it may come back to bite.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    AndyJS said:

    The severance pay MPs get is a disgrace IMO. Nice to know Patrick Hall has already spent the £54,000 he received in 2010 on losing his seat in Bedford. Mike Hancock is on course to get it if he stands as an independent in Portsmouth South.

    But maybe it's worth remembering that Patrick was classed by the Telegraph during the Parliament expenses scandal as---I think the term was---an "angel". That is to say, they didn't find any fiddling by him.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Purseybear said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Has Miliband repeated his Fink accusation outside the safe confines of Parliament yet?

    I don't think he will dare. I wonder if this is a big mistake by EdM.
    Miliband accused Fink of involvement in tax avoidance, not of personally evading taxes. Though I can see why Fink is angry, I suspect CCHQ could do without headlines dominated by Tory tax cheats.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Purseybear said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Has Miliband repeated his Fink accusation outside the safe confines of Parliament yet?

    I don't think he will dare. I wonder if this is a big mistake by EdM.
    Miliband accused Fink of involvement in tax avoidance, not of personally evading taxes. Though I can see why Fink is angry, I suspect CCHQ could do without headlines dominated by Tory tax cheats.
    It was pretty obvious what Miliband was trying to smear Fink with, and it wasn't avoidance.

    You've just done the same, with use of the phrase 'tax cheats'.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,398
    edited February 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    How is it clear that last night's YouGov was an outlier? That may equally be true of the 1% Tory lead it came up with a day earlier.

    You need to check your sarcasm meter.
    Last month you said UKIP on 18% was an outlier when there 4 or 5 18%s in a week.. when I mentioned it you told me I didn't know how to look at statistics, which is a bit worrying as it is my job
    My comment applied to YouGov.

    Tell me how many times they've hit 18 since then with YouGov?
    Wouldn't know, don't really follow it that closely
    They haven't hit 18% with YouGov after I said 18% with YouGov was an outlier.
    Oh so an outlier means the highest out of a weeks polls does it? I thought it was one that was a long way outside the range
    No. I explained at the time what I meant at the time. Look up average and standard deviation. It might help you.
    Haha its ok I certainly don't need your help!

    By the way you are wrong.. they have got 18% since you said it was an outlier.. almost makes me feel bad to say it

    Don't make stuff up to win an argument this time please though, it was embarrassing to catch you out on the bet you never had
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Ohh no..... have I missed another Ed Disaster. Another electoral earthquake of Mansion Tax riot proportions?

    PB Hodges saying Labour/Miliband are a disgrace.......Dan would be proud of every last one of you.


    **** Opens another bag of popcorn *****
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    compouter2 said:

    Ohh no..... have I missed another Ed Disaster. Another electoral earthquake of Mansion Tax riot proportions?

    PB Hodges saying Labour/Miliband are a disgrace.......Dan would be proud of every last one of you.


    **** Opens another bag of popcorn *****

    I'm looking forward to the Tube Strike.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,489
    TheWatcher said:

    Has Miliband repeated his Fink accusation outside the safe confines of Parliament yet?

    Not yet, it will take the lawyers are fair bit of time to figure out how Miliband can repeat what he said in the HoC without repeating what he said in the HoC.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    TheWatcher said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Purseybear said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Has Miliband repeated his Fink accusation outside the safe confines of Parliament yet?

    I don't think he will dare. I wonder if this is a big mistake by EdM.
    Miliband accused Fink of involvement in tax avoidance, not of personally evading taxes. Though I can see why Fink is angry, I suspect CCHQ could do without headlines dominated by Tory tax cheats.
    It was pretty obvious what Miliband was trying to smear Fink with, and it wasn't avoidance.
    It's also pretty obvious what was actually said, courtesy of Hansard:
    http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/hansard/commons/todays-commons-debates/read/unknown/90/#c90
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    TheWatcher said:

    Has Miliband repeated his Fink accusation outside the safe confines of Parliament yet?

    Talk is cheap for our earnest (but crap) wannabee pm
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    RodCrosby said:

    Sean_F said:

    Ipsos MORI is in the same ballpark as Lord Ashcroft, so I suspect that's a fair Conservative lead. If so, that would mean the Conservatives led with three out of four telephone pollsters.

    Maybe the polling lead finally falling into line with the PM approval forecast?
    Do you think this makes sense of Cameron's comment in the HoC? Seemed an amazingly confident assertion: "that's why you're losing"? Or was that maybe bluster 'cos Miliband got under his skin.

    Who knows.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    glw said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Has Miliband repeated his Fink accusation outside the safe confines of Parliament yet?

    Not yet, it will take the lawyers are fair bit of time to figure out how Miliband can repeat what he said in the HoC without repeating what he said in the HoC.
    Great idea to run up a decent legal bill with an expensive GE to pay for in a few months. £500 an hour for a Senior Partner at a top flight defamation firm plus Counsel costs. Kerching.
  • numbercrunchernumbercruncher Posts: 136
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    But more likely it is the Greens in third place, which fits the definition of corker.

    Possible - Ipsos MORI tends to show the highest Green polls of anyone - last month they had them only 3 points from 3rd place...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Are they ever going to release this poll? Some of us need an early night.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    SeanT said:

    Floater said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I am not surprised at Labour's tactics today. This is the party that sought to smear Cameron's wife and child and Osborne's wife.

    To me that was despicable. Seems they haven't changed.

    "Labour is nothing if not a moral crusade........"

    They really are hypocritical pond life.
    After the catastrophe of Blair's Iraq war, I'm not sure any Labour politician should use the word "crusade".
    They do not deserve to use "moral" either
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Has Tom Newton Dunn been ramping it on twitter yet ?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheWatcher said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Purseybear said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Has Miliband repeated his Fink accusation outside the safe confines of Parliament yet?

    I don't think he will dare. I wonder if this is a big mistake by EdM.
    Miliband accused Fink of involvement in tax avoidance, not of personally evading taxes. Though I can see why Fink is angry, I suspect CCHQ could do without headlines dominated by Tory tax cheats.
    It was pretty obvious what Miliband was trying to smear Fink with, and it wasn't avoidance.
    It's also pretty obvious what was actually said, courtesy of Hansard:
    http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/hansard/commons/todays-commons-debates/read/unknown/90/#c90
    Insinuation.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    Purseybear said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Has Miliband repeated his Fink accusation outside the safe confines of Parliament yet?

    I don't think he will dare. I wonder if this is a big mistake by EdM.
    If Milliband repeats it and Fink sues the story will go away until any court hearing or settlement, long after the election. So the smear remains.

    If Milliband doesn't, Fink can do nothing and the smear remains.

    Cameron could raise it in next week's PMQs - but this is a high risk strategy for him. He could position it as an attack on Milliband's judgment and lack of courage. Or he could raise the issue of Labour's smears against his wife and dead child and what Milliband did or did not know about that. But that must be a deeply personal and painful issue for him.

    Smearing a rich person - however unfairly - is one thing. But smearing wives and dead children is beyond the pale, in my view. Labour crossed a line there and have never stepped back from it, to their discredit.

    Certainly the Tories need to do something. There are plenty of stories around about Labour's supporters and Labour MPs. And there is, of course, the fact that the only PM to be interviewed by the police under caution was a Labour PM, one T Blair, currently helping Mr E Milliband, apparently.

  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Labour back in to 21. My guess is 2 polls. One shows neck-and-neck or even slight Lab lead. The other is going to be big news somehow. NB that's guesswork not insider trading.

    Maybe poll No.2. is tomorrow morning's?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,908
    Good to see PB is full of rattled Tories tonight. Personally, I think the more light that is shone on the murky tax affairs of the rich and powerful of these Islands the better. This country is rotten - I rarely wish we were more like the States - but in the case of tax rules I do.

    Frankly it's wrong that smug plutocrats like Fink can make 3 million quid donations - one can only assume for the purchase of power and influence. Wrong, wrong, wrong again and still wrong.
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