I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In the olden times, an opposition that built up a lead in the low teens mid-term was doing OK but not well enough to win on the big day. Hence EICWNPM. Until the Trusstershambles, that was what Starmer was on track to do; a decent silver medal, but second place all the same.
At the moment, Labour haven't quite conceded that big a consistent lead in polls that we understand. So there's hope for them there. More importantly, there is plenty of time for Starmer to hang on for a bit, absorb a bit more toxin and then hand over to a fresh face from the next generation in 2028 or so.
Extremely dull for rolling news addicts, I'm sure. But that's the timeframe.
If Starmer reacts appropriately to some World ending Trump madness he could survive. On the other hand if he drops that ball we might need Boris Churchill back in No 10.
Maybe he should stand in the Manchester by-election. I'm sure it would add to the gaiety of the nation.
Yes Trump's election wins are good for him but bad for rightwing parties elsewhere in the world.
They aren't great for US Republicans either given their candidates defeats in the mini midterms late last year and polls giving Democrats the lead ahead of this year's midterms
I'd hope Farage's gushing fandom of Trump would lose him support - but unless I've missed something in the polls we await evidence of that.
Well we don't have a counterfactual. My view is that there is an open goal there for an opposition party which takes a robust line on immigration and woke and which is comfortable with a bit of public spending. Reform nearly took it, but keeps taking maga lines which don't translate to the UK. I reckon if they were less keen to take the Trump line they'd be 20% ahead in the polls by now. I appreciate this is an 'if my auntie had balls' argument.
Tactically you may be right, but for me, strategically it would be a huge error for Reform to censor their right-wingness. The rules of what are right and acceptable opinions in society are set by the left, and they are used as are a weapon against speech that the left doesn't like.
According to David Starkey, this began as a deliberate policy by Communist Russia after the War, when the UN was in its infancy, who found the idea of free speech unacceptable, and therefore started to caveat it with notions of 'fascist speech' being unacceptable - which their ideological descendents still peddle today.
I don't want Reform politicians to be vulgar, or deliberately unkind, but it is important that they, and other right wingers, realise that it doesn't matter a jot how much you use the language of the left and play by its rules, you will not be accepted, and in the end your non-compliance with their world view will itself be deemed offensive.
Your last paragraph is quite good.
I'm sure you have substantial and well thought out policies to back all the rhetoric up?
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In the olden times, an opposition that built up a lead in the low teens mid-term was doing OK but not well enough to win on the big day. Hence EICWNPM. Until the Trusstershambles, that was what Starmer was on track to do; a decent silver medal, but second place all the same.
At the moment, Labour haven't quite conceded that big a consistent lead in polls that we understand. So there's hope for them there. More importantly, there is plenty of time for Starmer to hang on for a bit, absorb a bit more toxin and then hand over to a fresh face from the next generation in 2028 or so.
Extremely dull for rolling news addicts, I'm sure. But that's the timeframe.
If Starmer reacts appropriately to some World ending Trump madness he could survive. On the other hand if he drops that ball we might need Boris Churchill back in No 10.
Maybe he should stand in the Manchester by-election. I'm sure it would add to the gaiety of the nation.
Trump seems to have galvanised anger over his unacceptable comments on Afghanistan and Starmer needs to announce the cancelation of the King's visit as head of our armed forces in April as the best way to protest
Enough fawning
Starmer should do nothing of the kind. The King can decline. (Edit: If he wants to)
The Kings visit is impossible to justify now
The King is head of our armed forces and will follow government advice
We have been far too accommodating to Trump and he has gone too far on this
A stand is needed
The King is not some chess piece to be moved around. I'm not even a monarchist, but as things stand he can't be treated as such.
I entirely agree that we've been too accommodating to the US. However reassure yourself - we actually have most of their family secrets in our records offices.
'The King is not some chess piece to be moved around'
He was used in the first meeting with Trump with that infamous invitation for a state visit and on subsequent occasions
Of course his state visit in April can be cancelled
The King could appoint Harry and Andrew in his place.
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021
On topic, the Megafon poll is fascinating on a number of levels.
Context - Denmark is run by a governing coalition of three parties - the Social Democrats, Venstre (meaning "Left" in English, translates to "Liberal" but is actually a Centre-Right Party as distinct from the Danish Conservative Party) and the Moderates. It's not a million miles away from a Lab-Con-LD coalition here.
The coalition parties won about 50% of the vote at the last election which marked a break from the traditional "Red" vs "Blue" blocks of governments - the Social Democrats led the "red" bloc while Venstre led the "blue".
Until Christmas, the coalition parties were running at 30% with the opposition parties at 70% and the blue bloc was leading the red roughly 50-47 so the next election looked like Venstre, the Conservatives and their allies were going to take over.
No longer, if Megafon is correct and to be fair the weekly Voxmeter has shown something similar yet it's not all good news for the coalition - the Social Democrats and Moderates are well up (5 and 4 respectively) but Venstre is down 2.5 points and the Conservatives down 2 so the red bloc now leads the blue 51-42 with the Moderates on 6.
Mette Frederiksen continuing as PM with the Moderates and some other allied centre-left groups now looks much more likely and it's probably down to Trump's antics on Greenland.
It's called the Pollievre trap apparently. Where Trump sinks your chances even if you personally do not seek to align with him.
But Pollievre did align with Trump. So many Conservative candidates were proudly photographed in MAGA hats. That only changed when the Don decided he wanted Canada.
He didn't want to align with him during the election itself (and some even tried to say Trump would prefer Carney), and previous Trump comparisons had not harmed his polling, but Don coming back actually made it land.
He still seems to be struggling with some number of his party being big Trump fans no matter what, which will always lead to awkward moments.
His issue is Alberta. Oil, guns, low tax. It's basically Texas with snow and lakes. The smaller the Conservative Party in the Commons, the larger the influence of Alberta on his Party. It isn't politically like the rest of Canada at all.
On topic, the Megafon poll is fascinating on a number of levels.
Context - Denmark is run by a governing coalition of three parties - the Social Democrats, Venstre (meaning "Left" in English, translates to "Liberal" but is actually a Centre-Right Party as distinct from the Danish Conservative Party) and the Moderates. It's not a million miles away from a Lab-Con-LD coalition here.
The coalition parties won about 50% of the vote at the last election which marked a break from the traditional "Red" vs "Blue" blocks of governments - the Social Democrats led the "red" bloc while Venstre led the "blue".
Until Christmas, the coalition parties were running at 30% with the opposition parties at 70% and the blue bloc was leading the red roughly 50-47 so the next election looked like Venstre, the Conservatives and their allies were going to take over.
No longer, if Megafon is correct and to be fair the weekly Voxmeter has shown something similar yet it's not all good news for the coalition - the Social Democrats and Moderates are well up (5 and 4 respectively) but Venstre is down 2.5 points and the Conservatives down 2 so the red bloc now leads the blue 51-42 with the Moderates on 6.
Mette Frederiksen continuing as PM with the Moderates and some other allied centre-left groups now looks much more likely and it's probably down to Trump's antics on Greenland.
It's called the Pollievre trap apparently. Where Trump sinks your chances even if you personally do not seek to align with him.
But Pollievre did align with Trump. So many Conservative candidates were proudly photographed in MAGA hats. That only changed when the Don decided he wanted Canada.
He didn't want to align with him during the election itself (and some even tried to say Trump would prefer Carney), and previous Trump comparisons had not harmed his polling, but Don coming back actually made it land.
He still seems to be struggling with some number of his party being big Trump fans no matter what, which will always lead to awkward moments.
His issue is Alberta. Oil, guns, low tax. It's basically Texas with snow and lakes. The smaller the Conservative Party in the Commons, the larger the influence of Alberta. It isn't politically like the rest of Canada at all.
Ironically Edmonton in Alberta was where Carney grew up
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021
But much smaller than the swing from Labour to Reform. Labour will suffer a bigger net loss of seats than the SNP. Who do you think will be the official opposition in Scotland and Wales in May, @HYUFD, and everyone else?
I think Trump, at heart, has some serious personality disorder where he hates himself and is angry about it and therefore takes action that ensures he will be hated to justify that anger. It's possible that deep deep within himself he realises at some level he was poorly brought up and advised as a young man, which is the root source of that anger.
He really needs to stand down, and see a psychologist.
He has Narcissistic Personality Disorder. It's textbook. That so few mention it is extraordinary.
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021
You keep repeating this but the evidence is the SNP will do well in Scotland and labour struggle
In Wales the momentum is with Plaid resulting next May in Independence supporting First Ministers in both Scotland and Wales
You may need more than one tank !!!!!
Election Maps UK
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie (Fife) By-Election Result [1st Prefs]:
On topic, the Megafon poll is fascinating on a number of levels.
Context - Denmark is run by a governing coalition of three parties - the Social Democrats, Venstre (meaning "Left" in English, translates to "Liberal" but is actually a Centre-Right Party as distinct from the Danish Conservative Party) and the Moderates. It's not a million miles away from a Lab-Con-LD coalition here.
The coalition parties won about 50% of the vote at the last election which marked a break from the traditional "Red" vs "Blue" blocks of governments - the Social Democrats led the "red" bloc while Venstre led the "blue".
Until Christmas, the coalition parties were running at 30% with the opposition parties at 70% and the blue bloc was leading the red roughly 50-47 so the next election looked like Venstre, the Conservatives and their allies were going to take over.
No longer, if Megafon is correct and to be fair the weekly Voxmeter has shown something similar yet it's not all good news for the coalition - the Social Democrats and Moderates are well up (5 and 4 respectively) but Venstre is down 2.5 points and the Conservatives down 2 so the red bloc now leads the blue 51-42 with the Moderates on 6.
Mette Frederiksen continuing as PM with the Moderates and some other allied centre-left groups now looks much more likely and it's probably down to Trump's antics on Greenland.
It's called the Pollievre trap apparently. Where Trump sinks your chances even if you personally do not seek to align with him.
But Pollievre did align with Trump. So many Conservative candidates were proudly photographed in MAGA hats. That only changed when the Don decided he wanted Canada.
He didn't want to align with him during the election itself (and some even tried to say Trump would prefer Carney), and previous Trump comparisons had not harmed his polling, but Don coming back actually made it land.
He still seems to be struggling with some number of his party being big Trump fans no matter what, which will always lead to awkward moments.
His issue is Alberta. Oil, guns, low tax. It's basically Texas with snow and lakes. The smaller the Conservative Party in the Commons, the larger the influence of Alberta on his Party. It isn't politically like the rest of Canada at all.
Its a measure of Trump's stupidity that he hasn't tried to play Alberta (or other provinces) off against each other and the federal government.
Trump might think that Canada becoming the 51st US state would be impressive but it would be better and easier to add the Canadian provinces as US states 51 to 60.
I'd hope Farage's gushing fandom of Trump would lose him support - but unless I've missed something in the polls we await evidence of that.
It gives him the gushing support of @Leon, and 15% of the electorate. It doesn't harm him with another 15%.
And then there's 65% of the electorate who really aren't big Trump fans at all.
I don't think it affects the headline polling for Reform much, but I do think it impacts the likelihood of people voting tactically against them.
Not gushing at all. I’d prefer Reform to be significantly more right wing on all counts, but they’re the best we got and the most likely to humiliate the Tories and Labour - and that dual humiliation would certainly make me quite excited
Basically, I’d like a young Lee Kuan Yew to take over the UK
Whatever qualities he may have had, not really a democrat was he?
Democracy is doomed anyway. It was a grand experiment that is now failing and will soon be consigned
Sorry Leon, I agree with you on many things but that is rubbish. If you don't have democracy as a tool for voters to change their government and legislature they will eventually turn to riots or violent revolution instead. As Churchill said it remains the worst system apart from all the others to choose our leaders
I'd hope Farage's gushing fandom of Trump would lose him support - but unless I've missed something in the polls we await evidence of that.
It gives him the gushing support of @Leon, and 15% of the electorate. It doesn't harm him with another 15%.
And then there's 65% of the electorate who really aren't big Trump fans at all.
I don't think it affects the headline polling for Reform much, but I do think it impacts the likelihood of people voting tactically against them.
Not gushing at all. I’d prefer Reform to be significantly more right wing on all counts, but they’re the best we got and the most likely to humiliate the Tories and Labour - and that dual humiliation would certainly make me quite excited
Basically, I’d like a young Lee Kuan Yew to take over the UK
Whatever qualities he may have had, not really a democrat was he?
Democracy is doomed anyway. It was a grand experiment that is now failing and will soon be consigned
On topic, the Megafon poll is fascinating on a number of levels.
Context - Denmark is run by a governing coalition of three parties - the Social Democrats, Venstre (meaning "Left" in English, translates to "Liberal" but is actually a Centre-Right Party as distinct from the Danish Conservative Party) and the Moderates. It's not a million miles away from a Lab-Con-LD coalition here.
The coalition parties won about 50% of the vote at the last election which marked a break from the traditional "Red" vs "Blue" blocks of governments - the Social Democrats led the "red" bloc while Venstre led the "blue".
Until Christmas, the coalition parties were running at 30% with the opposition parties at 70% and the blue bloc was leading the red roughly 50-47 so the next election looked like Venstre, the Conservatives and their allies were going to take over.
No longer, if Megafon is correct and to be fair the weekly Voxmeter has shown something similar yet it's not all good news for the coalition - the Social Democrats and Moderates are well up (5 and 4 respectively) but Venstre is down 2.5 points and the Conservatives down 2 so the red bloc now leads the blue 51-42 with the Moderates on 6.
Mette Frederiksen continuing as PM with the Moderates and some other allied centre-left groups now looks much more likely and it's probably down to Trump's antics on Greenland.
It's called the Pollievre trap apparently. Where Trump sinks your chances even if you personally do not seek to align with him.
Yes, it's been seen in a number of countries and a number of elections. Even where centre-right parties have tried to distance themselves from Trump, they have been caught out by previous "association" with America.
It's more complicated here given how Blair in particular and Starmer have been with America - compare and contrast with Wilson who wouldn't send British troops to Vietnam and who had a very different relationship with first Johnson and later Nixon.
It's of course easy for those on "the right" to support a party or President who has beaten "the left" but if all you ever do is go for the most "anti-left" option time after time you'll run out of road because there's a limit to how sympathetic people will be to a foreign leader who is openly derogatory of your armed forces, institutions and Government.
I'd hope Farage's gushing fandom of Trump would lose him support - but unless I've missed something in the polls we await evidence of that.
It gives him the gushing support of @Leon, and 15% of the electorate. It doesn't harm him with another 15%.
And then there's 65% of the electorate who really aren't big Trump fans at all.
I don't think it affects the headline polling for Reform much, but I do think it impacts the likelihood of people voting tactically against them.
Not gushing at all. I’d prefer Reform to be significantly more right wing on all counts, but they’re the best we got and the most likely to humiliate the Tories and Labour - and that dual humiliation would certainly make me quite excited
Basically, I’d like a young Lee Kuan Yew to take over the UK
Whatever qualities he may have had, not really a democrat was he?
Democracy is doomed anyway. It was a grand experiment that is now failing and will soon be consigned
I'd hope Farage's gushing fandom of Trump would lose him support - but unless I've missed something in the polls we await evidence of that.
It gives him the gushing support of @Leon, and 15% of the electorate. It doesn't harm him with another 15%.
And then there's 65% of the electorate who really aren't big Trump fans at all.
I don't think it affects the headline polling for Reform much, but I do think it impacts the likelihood of people voting tactically against them.
Not gushing at all. I’d prefer Reform to be significantly more right wing on all counts, but they’re the best we got and the most likely to humiliate the Tories and Labour - and that dual humiliation would certainly make me quite excited
Basically, I’d like a young Lee Kuan Yew to take over the UK
Whatever qualities he may have had, not really a democrat was he?
Democracy is doomed anyway. It was a grand experiment that is now failing and will soon be consigned
Sorry Leon, I agree with you on many things but that is rubbish. If you don't have democracy as a tool for voters to change their government and legislature they will turn to riots or violent revolution instead. As Churchill said it remains the worst system apart from all the others to choose our leaders
Turn the lights out, have a lie down and take an Alka Seltzer, after an hour you'll be fine.
I read this, and thought of @Leon - grim reading - he may be right about the fate of democracy, and its not because the voters are stupid...
How AI destroys institutions
Here is an interesting new paper by two Boston law professors laying out the ways AI poses an existential threat to human institutions. Institutions, the paper argues, are our “super power”, enabling complex and rational human behaviours at large scale.
Unfortunately, they suggest “If you wanted to create a tool that would enable the destruction of institutions that prop up democratic life, you could not do better than artificial intelligence.”
AI poses a number of problems for institutions, the paper argues. It is incapable of taking intellectual risks — something that human employees do all the time which keeps institutions flexible and innovative.
And, importantly, an institution filled with human employees is full of nodes of resistance. An institution made up of humans is just full of potential opportunities for them to push back at questionable decisions, call out abuses, argue with their bosses and generally question things. To strip out humans from an institution is to remove all potential challenges to its hierarchy and make everything eerily (dangerously) smooth.
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021
But much smaller than the swing from Labour to Reform. Labour will suffer a bigger net loss of seats than the SNP. Who do you think will be the official opposition in Scotland and Wales in May, @HYUFD, and everyone else?
In Wales I expect Plaid to be close to forming a government, but I do not expect them to do a deal with labour if the expected result does show labour near decimated
I'd hope Farage's gushing fandom of Trump would lose him support - but unless I've missed something in the polls we await evidence of that.
It gives him the gushing support of @Leon, and 15% of the electorate. It doesn't harm him with another 15%.
And then there's 65% of the electorate who really aren't big Trump fans at all.
I don't think it affects the headline polling for Reform much, but I do think it impacts the likelihood of people voting tactically against them.
Not gushing at all. I’d prefer Reform to be significantly more right wing on all counts, but they’re the best we got and the most likely to humiliate the Tories and Labour - and that dual humiliation would certainly make me quite excited
Basically, I’d like a young Lee Kuan Yew to take over the UK
The thing you should want Reform to be is not more right-wing but more competent.
This, from Farage, is up there with Sir Keir's "It is a point of principle to respect the referendum vote" before getting elected in 2017, only to block every deal then campaign for a "People's Vote"
There is no wriggling out of it, it is as unacceptable as any other politician's double standard. A pity how a sniff of power so easily compromises a man If Reform is a genuinely democratic force confident of popular backing, why don’t Jenrick, Kruger etc seek the consent of voters in by-elections?
Farage once saw this as a point of democratic principle. So what’s changed?
I'd hope Farage's gushing fandom of Trump would lose him support - but unless I've missed something in the polls we await evidence of that.
It gives him the gushing support of @Leon, and 15% of the electorate. It doesn't harm him with another 15%.
And then there's 65% of the electorate who really aren't big Trump fans at all.
I don't think it affects the headline polling for Reform much, but I do think it impacts the likelihood of people voting tactically against them.
Not gushing at all. I’d prefer Reform to be significantly more right wing on all counts, but they’re the best we got and the most likely to humiliate the Tories and Labour - and that dual humiliation would certainly make me quite excited
Basically, I’d like a young Lee Kuan Yew to take over the UK
The think you should want Reform to be is not more right-wing but more competent.
And 'right wing' can mean different things to different people:
Maybe Lammy is on to something with getting rid of jury trials.
(censored) trial collapsed over jury WhatsApp group
The court heard that in one chat exchange, a member of the group warned that viewing the broadcast was contrary to the judge's directions, but one responded: "I'm going to watch it anyway," followed by a smiley emoji.
Another juror messaged that they too would watch the broadcast.
Donald Trump is wrong. For 20 years our armed forces fought bravely alongside America's in Afghanistan.
There's also a video clip which is a bit more mealy-mouthed: Farage calls Trump's comments "not quite fair".
Is that it? What a spineless piece of shxt .
In what way is it different from Starker et Al?
Starmer and Badenoch have been unequivocal. Starmer was later to the party than Badenoch, but then he would have to clear his angry response with the Diplomatic Service first.
Farage is doing his best not to upset his MAGA handlers.
I think Trump, at heart, has some serious personality disorder where he hates himself and is angry about it and therefore takes action that ensures he will be hated to justify that anger. It's possible that deep deep within himself he realises at some level he was poorly brought up and advised as a young man, which is the root source of that anger.
He really needs to stand down, and see a psychologist.
He has Narcissistic Personality Disorder. It's textbook. That so few mention it is extraordinary.
My sister in law’s abusive ex-husband had textbook narcissistic personality disorder. I remember watching Trump’s first TV debate with Hilary and realising how uncannily similar their behaviour was. It’s been the case ever since.
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021
But much smaller than the swing from Labour to Reform. Labour will suffer a bigger net loss of seats than the SNP. Who do you think will be the official opposition in Scotland and Wales in May, @HYUFD, and everyone else?
In Wales I expect Plaid to be close to forming a government, but I do not expect them to do a deal with labour if the expected result does show labour near decimated
Possibly govern as a minority if necessary
Are the Greens likely to win enough, or any, seats to be able to form a government with Plaid?
Reading @Leon's comment earlier about Lee Kuan Yew reminded me of the book I'm just finising: Barbara Tuchman's incredible Stilwell and the American Experience in China, 1911–45.
Chang Kai Shek was a terrible leader. I mean truly awful. Under his Nationalist government, China took massive amounts American aid and managed to achieve nothing good for its people.
I've not gotten to the Chinese Civil War yet (when, it should be noted, the Nationalist forces had all the modern weapons the Americans had given them), but you can see why the Communists won.
Now, you might say 'ah, Taiwan'. But Taiwan wasn't an economic success story in the 30 years post WW2 when Chang Kai Shek was in charge. Until his son - Chiang Ching-kuo took over in the mid-1970s - it was a basket case, with an economy stagnating at levels comparable to the poorest Southeast Asian states of the time.
Democracy isn't about picking the right leader. It's about being able to get rid of leaders who are shit. It's about them knowing that they face the judgement of the people every few years, and if they wish to avoid defeat (or worse), then they had need to work for the betterment of the people.
Reading @Leon's comment earlier about Lee Kuan Yew reminded me of the book I'm just finising: Barbara Tuchman's incredible Stilwell and the American Experience in China, 1911–45.
Chang Kai Shek was a terrible leader. I mean truly awful. Under his Nationalist government, China took massive amounts American aid and managed to achieve nothing good for its people.
I've not gotten to the Chinese Civil War yet (when, it should be noted, the Nationalist forces had all the modern weapons the Americans had given them), but you can see why the Communists won.
Now, you might say 'ah, Taiwan'. But Taiwan wasn't an economic success story in the 30 years post WW2 when Chang Kai Shek was in charge. Until his son - Chiang Ching-kuo took over in the mid-1970s - it was a basket case, with an economy stagnating at levels comparable to the poorest Southeast Asian states of the time.
Democracy isn't about picking the right leader. It's about being able to get rid of leaders who are shit. It's about them knowing that they face the judgement of the people every few years, and if they wish to avoid defeat (or worse), then they had need to work for the betterment of the people.
You also need to actually have a better one waiting in the wings.
Reading @Leon's comment earlier about Lee Kuan Yew reminded me of the book I'm just finising: Barbara Tuchman's incredible Stilwell and the American Experience in China, 1911–45.
Chang Kai Shek was a terrible leader. I mean truly awful. Under his Nationalist government, China took massive amounts American aid and managed to achieve nothing good for its people.
I've not gotten to the Chinese Civil War yet (when, it should be noted, the Nationalist forces had all the modern weapons the Americans had given them), but you can see why the Communists won.
Now, you might say 'ah, Taiwan'. But Taiwan wasn't an economic success story in the 30 years post WW2 when Chang Kai Shek was in charge. Until his son - Chiang Ching-kuo took over in the mid-1970s - it was a basket case, with an economy stagnating at levels comparable to the poorest Southeast Asian states of the time.
Democracy isn't about picking the right leader. It's about being able to get rid of leaders who are shit. It's about them knowing that they face the judgement of the people every few years, and if they wish to avoid defeat (or worse), then they had need to work for the betterment of the people.
You also need to actually have a better one waiting in the wings.
That would preferable, yes.
But even if you don't, it's (most of the time) a powerful incentive for the people in charge to behave, that doesn't exist in a dictatorship.
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021
But much smaller than the swing from Labour to Reform. Labour will suffer a bigger net loss of seats than the SNP. Who do you think will be the official opposition in Scotland and Wales in May, @HYUFD, and everyone else?
In Wales I expect Plaid to be close to forming a government, but I do not expect them to do a deal with labour if the expected result does show labour near decimated
Possibly govern as a minority if necessary
Are the Greens likely to win enough, or any, seats to be able to form a government with Plaid?
Very unlikely I would have thought. I suspect Plaid will do very, very well.
Reading @Leon's comment earlier about Lee Kuan Yew reminded me of the book I'm just finising: Barbara Tuchman's incredible Stilwell and the American Experience in China, 1911–45.
Chang Kai Shek was a terrible leader. I mean truly awful. Under his Nationalist government, China took massive amounts American aid and managed to achieve nothing good for its people.
I've not gotten to the Chinese Civil War yet (when, it should be noted, the Nationalist forces had all the modern weapons the Americans had given them), but you can see why the Communists won.
Now, you might say 'ah, Taiwan'. But Taiwan wasn't an economic success story in the 30 years post WW2 when Chang Kai Shek was in charge. Until his son - Chiang Ching-kuo took over in the mid-1970s - it was a basket case, with an economy stagnating at levels comparable to the poorest Southeast Asian states of the time.
Democracy isn't about picking the right leader. It's about being able to get rid of leaders who are shit. It's about them knowing that they face the judgement of the people every few years, and if they wish to avoid defeat (or worse), then they had need to work for the betterment of the people.
You also need to actually have a better one waiting in the wings.
That would preferable, yes.
But even if you don't, it's (most of the time) a powerful incentive for the people in charge to behave, that doesn't exist in a dictatorship.
But also an incentive to prioritise short term popularity over long term national interests.
I think Trump, at heart, has some serious personality disorder where he hates himself and is angry about it and therefore takes action that ensures he will be hated to justify that anger. It's possible that deep deep within himself he realises at some level he was poorly brought up and advised as a young man, which is the root source of that anger.
He really needs to stand down, and see a psychologist.
He has Narcissistic Personality Disorder. It's textbook. That so few mention it is extraordinary.
Reading @Leon's comment earlier about Lee Kuan Yew reminded me of the book I'm just finising: Barbara Tuchman's incredible Stilwell and the American Experience in China, 1911–45.
Chang Kai Shek was a terrible leader. I mean truly awful. Under his Nationalist government, China took massive amounts American aid and managed to achieve nothing good for its people.
I've not gotten to the Chinese Civil War yet (when, it should be noted, the Nationalist forces had all the modern weapons the Americans had given them), but you can see why the Communists won.
Now, you might say 'ah, Taiwan'. But Taiwan wasn't an economic success story in the 30 years post WW2 when Chang Kai Shek was in charge. Until his son - Chiang Ching-kuo took over in the mid-1970s - it was a basket case, with an economy stagnating at levels comparable to the poorest Southeast Asian states of the time.
Democracy isn't about picking the right leader. It's about being able to get rid of leaders who are shit. It's about them knowing that they face the judgement of the people every few years, and if they wish to avoid defeat (or worse), then they had need to work for the betterment of the people.
You also need to actually have a better one waiting in the wings.
That would preferable, yes.
But even if you don't, it's (most of the time) a powerful incentive for the people in charge to behave, that doesn't exist in a dictatorship.
I think having extremely strong penalties for corruption is also a key element. Singapore from the get go has had that. The UK is far from terrible, the US even before Trump was far worse, but there is definitely a soft corruption that permeates the system.
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
We won't 'lose' Scotland. We were third behind the Tories last time and should advance to become the main party of opposition.
Shadow Foreign Office Spokesman, Lord Callanan has written to the Foreign Office Minister, Baroness Chapman of Darlington, to clarify whether the Government believes the Chagos Bill and the Treaty with Mauritius breach international law.
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
FWIW I agree with you. Labour can afford to lose 75 seats and still be in power. They could lose 150 seats and still be the largest party. They have a massive incumbency advantage. They are polling really badly right now but they are in power and have the capacity to do something about it. I have been on this site long enough to remember swing back. In the last 47 years we have had 3 changes of government, usually after more than decade.
Our politics has become more volatile, or at least it was in 2024. But not to acknowledge that Labour has at least a decent chance of holding onto power seems to me to be wrong.
Shadow Foreign Office Spokesman, Lord Callanan has written to the Foreign Office Minister, Baroness Chapman of Darlington, to clarify whether the Government believes the Chagos Bill and the Treaty with Mauritius breach international law.
surrender bill Mr Glenn? Good to see you back posting insightful comment again after the various unpleasantries earlier this week
Reading @Leon's comment earlier about Lee Kuan Yew reminded me of the book I'm just finising: Barbara Tuchman's incredible Stilwell and the American Experience in China, 1911–45.
Chang Kai Shek was a terrible leader. I mean truly awful. Under his Nationalist government, China took massive amounts American aid and managed to achieve nothing good for its people.
I've not gotten to the Chinese Civil War yet (when, it should be noted, the Nationalist forces had all the modern weapons the Americans had given them), but you can see why the Communists won.
Now, you might say 'ah, Taiwan'. But Taiwan wasn't an economic success story in the 30 years post WW2 when Chang Kai Shek was in charge. Until his son - Chiang Ching-kuo took over in the mid-1970s - it was a basket case, with an economy stagnating at levels comparable to the poorest Southeast Asian states of the time.
Democracy isn't about picking the right leader. It's about being able to get rid of leaders who are shit. It's about them knowing that they face the judgement of the people every few years, and if they wish to avoid defeat (or worse), then they had need to work for the betterment of the people.
I loved Sand against the Wind. In fact I was so impressed I read pretty much all of Tuchman's output including the absolutely incredible A Distant Mirror.
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021
But much smaller than the swing from Labour to Reform. Labour will suffer a bigger net loss of seats than the SNP. Who do you think will be the official opposition in Scotland and Wales in May, @HYUFD, and everyone else?
In Wales I expect Plaid to be close to forming a government, but I do not expect them to do a deal with labour if the expected result does show labour near decimated
Possibly govern as a minority if necessary
Are the Greens likely to win enough, or any, seats to be able to form a government with Plaid?
Shadow Foreign Office Spokesman, Lord Callanan has written to the Foreign Office Minister, Baroness Chapman of Darlington, to clarify whether the Government believes the Chagos Bill and the Treaty with Mauritius breach international law.
surrender bill Mr Glenn? Good to see you back posting insightful comment again after the various unpleasantries earlier this week
According to the Telegraph the bill has been withdrawn from the Lords for now.
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
We won't 'lose' Scotland. We were third behind the Tories last time and should advance to become the main party of opposition.
Main party of opposition is a success for labour ?
I'd hope Farage's gushing fandom of Trump would lose him support - but unless I've missed something in the polls we await evidence of that.
Well we don't have a counterfactual. My view is that there is an open goal there for an opposition party which takes a robust line on immigration and woke and which is comfortable with a bit of public spending. Reform nearly took it, but keeps taking maga lines which don't translate to the UK. I reckon if they were less keen to take the Trump line they'd be 20% ahead in the polls by now. I appreciate this is an 'if my auntie had balls' argument.
Tactically you may be right, but for me, strategically it would be a huge error for Reform to censor their right-wingness. The rules of what are right and acceptable opinions in society are set by the left, and they are used as are a weapon against speech that the left doesn't like.
According to David Starkey, this began as a deliberate policy by Communist Russia after the War, when the UN was in its infancy, who found the idea of free speech unacceptable, and therefore started to caveat it with notions of 'fascist speech' being unacceptable - which their ideological descendents still peddle today.
I don't want Reform politicians to be vulgar, or deliberately unkind, but it is important that they, and other right wingers, realise that it doesn't matter a jot how much you use the language of the left and play by its rules, you will not be accepted, and in the end your non-compliance with their world view will itself be deemed offensive.
Your last paragraph is quite good.
I'm sure you have substantial and well thought out policies to back all the rhetoric up?
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
We won't 'lose' Scotland. We were third behind the Tories last time and should advance to become the main party of opposition.
Main party of opposition is a success for labour ?
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
FWIW I agree with you. Labour can afford to lose 75 seats and still be in power. They could lose 150 seats and still be the largest party. They have a massive incumbency advantage. They are polling really badly right now but they are in power and have the capacity to do something about it. I have been on this site long enough to remember swing back. In the last 47 years we have had 3 changes of government, usually after more than decade.
Our politics has become more volatile, or at least it was in 2024. But not to acknowledge that Labour has at least a decent chance of holding onto power seems to me to be wrong.
Agree - it's far too early to write Labour off. And there are, at last, some early signs of improvement in most economic indicators which, if they continue for a few years, could give Labour something to campaign on. The big issue is Starmer, who is currently a loser. A few signs that he's becoming a bit more confident and assertive, but much to do if he is to lead Labour into the next GE.
I think Trump, at heart, has some serious personality disorder where he hates himself and is angry about it and therefore takes action that ensures he will be hated to justify that anger. It's possible that deep deep within himself he realises at some level he was poorly brought up and advised as a young man, which is the root source of that anger.
He really needs to stand down, and see a psychologist.
He has Narcissistic Personality Disorder. It's textbook. That so few mention it is extraordinary.
My sister in law’s abusive ex-husband had textbook narcissistic personality disorder. I remember watching Trump’s first TV debate with Hilary and realising how uncannily similar their behaviour was. It’s been the case ever since.
Has he kidnapped a foreign leader and his wife as well?
Reading @Leon's comment earlier about Lee Kuan Yew reminded me of the book I'm just finising: Barbara Tuchman's incredible Stilwell and the American Experience in China, 1911–45.
Chang Kai Shek was a terrible leader. I mean truly awful. Under his Nationalist government, China took massive amounts American aid and managed to achieve nothing good for its people.
I've not gotten to the Chinese Civil War yet (when, it should be noted, the Nationalist forces had all the modern weapons the Americans had given them), but you can see why the Communists won.
Now, you might say 'ah, Taiwan'. But Taiwan wasn't an economic success story in the 30 years post WW2 when Chang Kai Shek was in charge. Until his son - Chiang Ching-kuo took over in the mid-1970s - it was a basket case, with an economy stagnating at levels comparable to the poorest Southeast Asian states of the time.
Democracy isn't about picking the right leader. It's about being able to get rid of leaders who are shit. It's about them knowing that they face the judgement of the people every few years, and if they wish to avoid defeat (or worse), then they had need to work for the betterment of the people.
You also need to actually have a better one waiting in the wings.
That would preferable, yes.
But even if you don't, it's (most of the time) a powerful incentive for the people in charge to behave, that doesn't exist in a dictatorship.
But also an incentive to prioritise short term popularity over long term national interests.
Sure: but that's also true of capitalism (and share prices) vs communism.
And I think we know which one has the better outcomes.
“Highly likely to lead to violence and serious disorder” are the key words, here. Their position is that if UKIP marched in Tower Hamlets, the locals would likely react violently, so the march is banned.
As with the Aston Villa game in Birmingham, there is one very unfortunate logical conclusion: minority groups can affect decision-making by threatening violence.
Therefore the next logical conclusion is that if the Jewish community had wanted Palestinian marches banned near synagogues or in heavily Jewish areas, the correct answer was not patient, good faith engagement (as this often did not work), but instead to threaten violence against the Palestinian protesters.
I'd hope Farage's gushing fandom of Trump would lose him support - but unless I've missed something in the polls we await evidence of that.
Well we don't have a counterfactual. My view is that there is an open goal there for an opposition party which takes a robust line on immigration and woke and which is comfortable with a bit of public spending. Reform nearly took it, but keeps taking maga lines which don't translate to the UK. I reckon if they were less keen to take the Trump line they'd be 20% ahead in the polls by now. I appreciate this is an 'if my auntie had balls' argument.
Tactically you may be right, but for me, strategically it would be a huge error for Reform to censor their right-wingness. The rules of what are right and acceptable opinions in society are set by the left, and they are used as are a weapon against speech that the left doesn't like.
According to David Starkey, this began as a deliberate policy by Communist Russia after the War, when the UN was in its infancy, who found the idea of free speech unacceptable, and therefore started to caveat it with notions of 'fascist speech' being unacceptable - which their ideological descendents still peddle today.
I don't want Reform politicians to be vulgar, or deliberately unkind, but it is important that they, and other right wingers, realise that it doesn't matter a jot how much you use the language of the left and play by its rules, you will not be accepted, and in the end your non-compliance with their world view will itself be deemed offensive.
Your last paragraph is quite good.
I'm sure you have substantial and well thought out policies to back all the rhetoric up?
Thanks. Enough to bore PB rigid.
Don’t forget we have an extremely high boredom threshold. We read Leon’s posts and sometimes even respond to them.
At the moment, I have to say my instincts are telling me he is preferable to Keir Starmer because he seems to have a quality of human thought that eludes Starmer - despite Starmer supposedly being more closely aligned with my views on economics.
Is Burnham soft on crime in Manchester? Has he run up billions of debt? I don't know anything about his post Westminster career.
Personally I'd be in favour of a model Andy Burnham or an AI generated Andy Burnham who you can personalise to be as left wing as to your own personal taste.
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
We won't 'lose' Scotland. We were third behind the Tories last time and should advance to become the main party of opposition.
Main party of opposition is a success for labour ?
That's not what he said Big_G... you are engaging in a bit of goalpost moving there.
At the moment, I have to say my instincts are telling me he is preferable to Keir Starmer because he seems to have a quality of human thought that eludes Starmer - despite Starmer supposedly being more closely aligned with my views on economics.
Is Burnham soft on crime in Manchester? Has he run up billions of debt? I don't know anything about his post Westminster career.
Running up billions of debt is not left wing... unless you think the last Tory government was left wing?
“Highly likely to lead to violence and serious disorder” are the key words, here. Their position is that if UKIP marched in Tower Hamlets, the locals would likely react violently, so the march is banned.
As with the Aston Villa game in Birmingham, there is one very unfortunate logical conclusion: minority groups can affect decision-making by threatening violence.
Therefore the next logical conclusion is that if the Jewish community had wanted Palestinian marches banned near synagogues or in heavily Jewish areas, the correct answer was not patient, good faith engagement (as this often did not work), but instead to threaten violence against the Palestinian protesters.
This is an absolutely insane state of affairs.'
The current incarnation of UKIP, led by Nick Tenconi, is an extreme right-wing anti-Islamist party that are fellow travellers with Tommy Robinson, Katie Hopkins et al. They demonstrate in favour of mass deportations and to 'reclaim' territories back from 'the Islamists'.
Obviously, there's nothing remotely provocative about their desire to march through Whitechapel (and bash a few Muslims if they get the chance).
At the moment, I have to say my instincts are telling me he is preferable to Keir Starmer because he seems to have a quality of human thought that eludes Starmer - despite Starmer supposedly being more closely aligned with my views on economics.
Is Burnham soft on crime in Manchester? Has he run up billions of debt? I don't know anything about his post Westminster career.
A lot of Burnham's credibility here rests on a) decent transport policy and b) the regeneration of the city centre. He's seen as getting out and speaking up for the city, there's a meme of him on the Town Hall steps in his anorak for a reason. He's also viewed as approachable, with a weekly phone in on Radio Manc where people will ring up and give him a hard time about bus route cancellations, and he will sit there and take it in good spirit.
Whether or not this would translate to national leadership is unknown. Starmer is the perfect example of a lack of transferable skills.
“Highly likely to lead to violence and serious disorder” are the key words, here. Their position is that if UKIP marched in Tower Hamlets, the locals would likely react violently, so the march is banned.
As with the Aston Villa game in Birmingham, there is one very unfortunate logical conclusion: minority groups can affect decision-making by threatening violence.
Therefore the next logical conclusion is that if the Jewish community had wanted Palestinian marches banned near synagogues or in heavily Jewish areas, the correct answer was not patient, good faith engagement (as this often did not work), but instead to threaten violence against the Palestinian protesters.
This is an absolutely insane state of affairs.'
The current incarnation of UKIP, led by Nick Tenconi, is an extreme right-wing anti-Islamist party that are fellow travellers with Tommy Robinson, Katie Hopkins et al. They demonstrate in favour of mass deportations and to 'reclaim' territories back from 'the Islamists'.
Obviously, there's nothing remotely provocative about their desire to march through Whitechapel (and bash a few Muslims if they get the chance).
At the moment, I have to say my instincts are telling me he is preferable to Keir Starmer because he seems to have a quality of human thought that eludes Starmer - despite Starmer supposedly being more closely aligned with my views on economics.
Is Burnham soft on crime in Manchester? Has he run up billions of debt? I don't know anything about his post Westminster career.
Running up billions of debt is not left wing... unless you think the last Tory government was left wing?
ICE are now arresting clergy in Minnesota live on TV
Just the optics the regime was hoping for to bolster support...
Today’s TRiP video podcast with Campbell and the Mooch; the latter reckons Trump could implode within three to six months
Why? The only mechanism to remove him involuntarily is the 25th amendment and that requires Cabinet approval, and it's full of Trump idolators. There's no plausible legal method of evicting him before January 2029.
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021
You keep repeating this but the evidence is the SNP will do well in Scotland and labour struggle
In Wales the momentum is with Plaid resulting next May in Independence supporting First Ministers in both Scotland and Wales
You may need more than one tank !!!!!
Election Maps UK
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie (Fife) By-Election Result [1st Prefs]:
That is change since 2022 when Labour won the NEV UK wide, whereas in 2021 when Holyrood was last up the Tories won the NEV. Note the SNP down 5 % even in last night’s by election.
The only reason Plaid lead in Wales is they have ruled out pushing for an independence referendum in their first term
“Highly likely to lead to violence and serious disorder” are the key words, here. Their position is that if UKIP marched in Tower Hamlets, the locals would likely react violently, so the march is banned.
As with the Aston Villa game in Birmingham, there is one very unfortunate logical conclusion: minority groups can affect decision-making by threatening violence.
Therefore the next logical conclusion is that if the Jewish community had wanted Palestinian marches banned near synagogues or in heavily Jewish areas, the correct answer was not patient, good faith engagement (as this often did not work), but instead to threaten violence against the Palestinian protesters.
This is an absolutely insane state of affairs.'
The current incarnation of UKIP, led by Nick Tenconi, is an extreme right-wing anti-Islamist party that are fellow travellers with Tommy Robinson, Katie Hopkins et al. They demonstrate in favour of mass deportations and to 'reclaim' territories back from 'the Islamists'.
Obviously, there's nothing remotely provocative about their desire to march through Whitechapel (and bash a few Muslims if they get the chance).
Your missing the point.
I'm not 100% sure what "the point" is. Andrew Fox states "minority groups can affect decision making by threatening violence". Who are the "minority groups"? UKIP? The "locals" in Whitechapel?
The shadow of Cable Street looms large it would seem.
Does UKIP have an absolute right to march peacefully wherever it chooses? In an ideal world, yes but we know the world isn't ideal and the first role of the Police is to maintain public order, not defend the right to protest. Where the former is threatened by the latter, whether we like it or not, the former takes priority though that's a question and a debate worth having.
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021
But much smaller than the swing from Labour to Reform. Labour will suffer a bigger net loss of seats than the SNP. Who do you think will be the official opposition in Scotland and Wales in May, @HYUFD, and everyone else?
The swing from SNP to Reform is bigger than the Scottish swing from Labour to Reform so Labour could take second given polls also show the Scottish Tories collapsing from official opposition at Holyrood in 2021 to fourth now.
In Wales though Reform will likely be main opposition with Labour collapsing to third
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021
But much smaller than the swing from Labour to Reform. Labour will suffer a bigger net loss of seats than the SNP. Who do you think will be the official opposition in Scotland and Wales in May, @HYUFD, and everyone else?
The swing from SNP to Reform is bigger than the Scottish swing from Labour to Reform so Labour could take second given polls also show the Scottish Tories collapsing from official opposition at Holyrood in 2021 to fourth now.
In Wales though Reform will likely be main opposition with Labour collapsing to third
Good analysis all round.
I'd take that in Wales HY. So long as Team Putin are nowhere to be seen. I do fear Nathan Gill passed everyone by and they might do better than you think.
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021
But much smaller than the swing from Labour to Reform. Labour will suffer a bigger net loss of seats than the SNP. Who do you think will be the official opposition in Scotland and Wales in May, @HYUFD, and everyone else?
The swing from SNP to Reform is bigger than the Scottish swing from Labour to Reform so Labour could take second given polls also show the Scottish Tories collapsing from official opposition at Holyrood in 2021 to fourth now.
In Wales though Reform will likely be main opposition with Labour collapsing to third
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021
You keep repeating this but the evidence is the SNP will do well in Scotland and labour struggle
In Wales the momentum is with Plaid resulting next May in Independence supporting First Ministers in both Scotland and Wales
You may need more than one tank !!!!!
Election Maps UK
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie (Fife) By-Election Result [1st Prefs]:
That is change since 2022 when Labour won the NEV UK wide, whereas in 2021 when Holyrood was last up the Tories won the NEV. Note the SNP down 5 % even in last night’s by election.
The only reason Plaid lead in Wales is they have ruled out pushing for an independence referendum in their first term
It’s not the only reason Plaid lead in Wales. It may be a factor, but the main reason they lead is because Labour are utterly incompetent and have finally exhausted the patience of their former supporters. Plaid are an alternative operating in the same centre left political spectrum, without Labour’s baggage.
I'd hope Farage's gushing fandom of Trump would lose him support - but unless I've missed something in the polls we await evidence of that.
It gives him the gushing support of @Leon, and 15% of the electorate. It doesn't harm him with another 15%.
And then there's 65% of the electorate who really aren't big Trump fans at all.
I don't think it affects the headline polling for Reform much, but I do think it impacts the likelihood of people voting tactically against them.
Not gushing at all. I’d prefer Reform to be significantly more right wing on all counts, but they’re the best we got and the most likely to humiliate the Tories and Labour - and that dual humiliation would certainly make me quite excited
Basically, I’d like a young Lee Kuan Yew to take over the UK
Whatever qualities he may have had, not really a democrat was he?
Democracy is doomed anyway. It was a grand experiment that is now failing and will soon be consigned
Sorry Leon, I agree with you on many things but that is rubbish. If you don't have democracy as a tool for voters to change their government and legislature they will eventually turn to riots or violent revolution instead. As Churchill said it remains the worst system apart from all the others to choose our leaders
Some quibbles with the article too. First, Brexit led to the end of free movement, electing Trump to deportation of immigrants, even Rishi cut net migration and Orban and Meloni and Abbott etc once elected took a hard line on immigration.
Second, you don’t need a high iq to vote, only ideally to be an elected representative. Third even the likes of Singapore have multi party democratic elections and is far richer per head than one party state China.
Finally, why would AI always act benevolently? Voters want some say on who controls and regulates and programmes AI to try and ensure it does
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021
You keep repeating this but the evidence is the SNP will do well in Scotland and labour struggle
In Wales the momentum is with Plaid resulting next May in Independence supporting First Ministers in both Scotland and Wales
You may need more than one tank !!!!!
Election Maps UK
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie (Fife) By-Election Result [1st Prefs]:
That is change since 2022 when Labour won the NEV UK wide, whereas in 2021 when Holyrood was last up the Tories won the NEV. Note the SNP down 5 % even in last night’s by election.
The only reason Plaid lead in Wales is they have ruled out pushing for an independence referendum in their first term
Plaid are leading in Wales because Wales has had enough of labour - nothing to do with their attitude to independence
As far as Scotland is concerned, others on here have told you are wrong on your anaylsis and even if the SNP were down 5.3% labour were down 16.8%
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021
You keep repeating this but the evidence is the SNP will do well in Scotland and labour struggle
In Wales the momentum is with Plaid resulting next May in Independence supporting First Ministers in both Scotland and Wales
You may need more than one tank !!!!!
Election Maps UK
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie (Fife) By-Election Result [1st Prefs]:
That is change since 2022 when Labour won the NEV UK wide, whereas in 2021 when Holyrood was last up the Tories won the NEV. Note the SNP down 5 % even in last night’s by election.
The only reason Plaid lead in Wales is they have ruled out pushing for an independence referendum in their first term
It’s not the only reason Plaid lead in Wales. It may be a factor, but the main reason they lead is because Labour are utterly incompetent and have finally exhausted the patience of their former supporters. Plaid are an alternative operating in the same centre left political spectrum, without Labour’s baggage.
I believe the Labour collapse to Plaid is more the work of Westminster than Cardiff Bay. Plaid have been tacitly involved in the current administration here.
The Reform surge in Wales is like the Reform surge in England and Scotland. Boat people and Nigel normalising racism.
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021
You keep repeating this but the evidence is the SNP will do well in Scotland and labour struggle
In Wales the momentum is with Plaid resulting next May in Independence supporting First Ministers in both Scotland and Wales
You may need more than one tank !!!!!
Election Maps UK
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie (Fife) By-Election Result [1st Prefs]:
That is change since 2022 when Labour won the NEV UK wide, whereas in 2021 when Holyrood was last up the Tories won the NEV. Note the SNP down 5 % even in last night’s by election.
The only reason Plaid lead in Wales is they have ruled out pushing for an independence referendum in their first term
Plaid are leading in Wales because Wales has had enough of labour - nothing to do with their attitude to independence
As far as Scotland is concerned, others on here have told you are wrong on your anaylsis and even if the SNP were down 5.3% labour were down 16.8%
Because it was a change since 2022 when Labour WON UK wide, in 2021 Labour were miles behind the Tories UK wide
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021
But much smaller than the swing from Labour to Reform. Labour will suffer a bigger net loss of seats than the SNP. Who do you think will be the official opposition in Scotland and Wales in May, @HYUFD, and everyone else?
The swing from SNP to Reform is bigger than the Scottish swing from Labour to Reform so Labour could take second given polls also show the Scottish Tories collapsing from official opposition at Holyrood in 2021 to fourth now.
In Wales though Reform will likely be main opposition with Labour collapsing to third
Good analysis all round.
I'd take that in Wales HY. So long as Team Putin are nowhere to be seen. I do fear Nathan Gill passed everyone by and they might do better than you think.
Actually I don't think Gill has passed Wales by and I expect Reform to underperform at Paid's benefit
I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021
But much smaller than the swing from Labour to Reform. Labour will suffer a bigger net loss of seats than the SNP. Who do you think will be the official opposition in Scotland and Wales in May, @HYUFD, and everyone else?
The swing from SNP to Reform is bigger than the Scottish swing from Labour to Reform so Labour could take second given polls also show the Scottish Tories collapsing from official opposition at Holyrood in 2021 to fourth now.
In Wales though Reform will likely be main opposition with Labour collapsing to third
Comments
They aren't great for US Republicans either given their candidates defeats in the mini midterms late last year and polls giving Democrats the lead ahead of this year's midterms
I'm sure you have substantial and well thought out policies to back all the rhetoric up?
https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/2014708819025133930
Oil, guns, low tax. It's basically Texas with snow and lakes.
The smaller the Conservative Party in the Commons, the larger the influence of Alberta on his Party.
It isn't politically like the rest of Canada at all.
Burnham may have some skeletons.
I suppose it depends on one's definition of patriotism. Flags good, mourning long dead soldiers is perhaps a little bit woke in those circles.
It's textbook.
That so few mention it is extraordinary.
In Wales the momentum is with Plaid resulting next May in Independence supporting First Ministers in both Scotland and Wales
You may need more than one tank !!!!!
Election Maps UK
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie (Fife) By-Election Result [1st Prefs]:
🎗️ SNP: 44.3% (-5.3)
➡️ RFM: 27.5% (New)
🌹 LAB: 15.7% (-16.8)
🌳 CON: 6.9% (-4.7)
🔶 LDM: 4.7% (+0.9)
🧑🧑🧒🧒 SFP: 0.9% (New)
No Ind (-2.6) as previous.
SNP HOLD.
Changes w/ 2022.
Trump might think that Canada becoming the 51st US state would be impressive but it would be better and easier to add the Canadian provinces as US states 51 to 60.
they will eventually turn to riots or violent revolution instead. As Churchill said it remains the worst system apart from all the others to choose our leaders
It's more complicated here given how Blair in particular and Starmer have been with America - compare and contrast with Wilson who wouldn't send British troops to Vietnam and who had a very different relationship with first Johnson and later Nixon.
It's of course easy for those on "the right" to support a party or President who has beaten "the left" but if all you ever do is go for the most "anti-left" option time after time you'll run out of road because there's a limit to how sympathetic people will be to a foreign leader who is openly derogatory of your armed forces, institutions and Government.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/01/23/starmer-pulls-chagos-deal-following-trump-backlash/
How AI destroys institutions
Here is an interesting new paper by two Boston law professors laying out the ways AI poses an existential threat to human institutions. Institutions, the paper argues, are our “super power”, enabling complex and rational human behaviours at large scale.
Unfortunately, they suggest “If you wanted to create a tool that would enable the destruction of institutions that prop up democratic life, you could not do better than artificial intelligence.”
AI poses a number of problems for institutions, the paper argues. It is incapable of taking intellectual risks — something that human employees do all the time which keeps institutions flexible and innovative.
And, importantly, an institution filled with human employees is full of nodes of resistance. An institution made up of humans is just full of potential opportunities for them to push back at questionable decisions, call out abuses, argue with their bosses and generally question things. To strip out humans from an institution is to remove all potential challenges to its hierarchy and make everything eerily (dangerously) smooth.
Possibly govern as a minority if necessary
There is no wriggling out of it, it is as unacceptable as any other politician's double standard. A pity how a sniff of power so easily compromises a man
If Reform is a genuinely democratic force confident of popular backing, why don’t Jenrick, Kruger etc seek the consent of voters in by-elections?
Farage once saw this as a point of democratic principle. So what’s changed?
https://x.com/FraserNelson/status/2014395395015639507?s=20
You seem very keen on him taking the plunge. Does he get your vote?
Low taxes or balanced budgets ?
Social conservative or libertarian ?
Isolationist or expansionist ?
Big business or small business ?
NIMBY or home ownership ?
(censored) trial collapsed over jury WhatsApp group
The court heard that in one chat exchange, a member of the group warned that viewing the broadcast was contrary to the judge's directions, but one responded: "I'm going to watch it anyway," followed by a smiley emoji.
Another juror messaged that they too would watch the broadcast.
He has been a very good mayor
However, the devil in me sees internal strife in labour interesting
He could get Gary Neville in as COE !!!!!!!!!
https://x.com/JonHollis9/status/2014725083600662851?s=20
Farage is doing his best not to upset his MAGA handlers.
First they came for the 2d graphics designers...then they came for the motion graphics designers....
Prompt to motion graphics after effect style videos
https://x.com/Remotion/status/2013628043105890779
...and the 3d / 4d artists...
https://fugtemypt123.github.io/VIGA-website/
Chang Kai Shek was a terrible leader. I mean truly awful. Under his Nationalist government, China took massive amounts American aid and managed to achieve nothing good for its people.
I've not gotten to the Chinese Civil War yet (when, it should be noted, the Nationalist forces had all the modern weapons the Americans had given them), but you can see why the Communists won.
Now, you might say 'ah, Taiwan'. But Taiwan wasn't an economic success story in the 30 years post WW2 when Chang Kai Shek was in charge. Until his son - Chiang Ching-kuo took over in the mid-1970s - it was a basket case, with an economy stagnating at levels comparable to the poorest Southeast Asian states of the time.
Democracy isn't about picking the right leader. It's about being able to get rid of leaders who are shit. It's about them knowing that they face the judgement of the people every few years, and if they wish to avoid defeat (or worse), then they had need to work for the betterment of the people.
That group has no say at all over whether Andy Burnham can *stand* to be an MP.
What they can decide is whether he can stand as an official Labour candidate.
But even if you don't, it's (most of the time) a powerful incentive for the people in charge to behave, that doesn't exist in a dictatorship.
https://x.com/hlconservatives/status/2014775141515796508
Shadow Foreign Office Spokesman, Lord Callanan has written to the Foreign Office Minister, Baroness Chapman of Darlington, to clarify whether the Government believes the Chagos Bill and the Treaty with Mauritius breach international law.
Our politics has become more volatile, or at least it was in 2024. But not to acknowledge that Labour has at least a decent chance of holding onto power seems to me to be wrong.
And I think we know which one has the better outcomes.
https://x.com/Mr_Andrew_Fox/status/2014740665666515167
“Highly likely to lead to violence and serious disorder” are the key words, here. Their position is that if UKIP marched in Tower Hamlets, the locals would likely react violently, so the march is banned.
As with the Aston Villa game in Birmingham, there is one very unfortunate logical conclusion: minority groups can affect decision-making by threatening violence.
Therefore the next logical conclusion is that if the Jewish community had wanted Palestinian marches banned near synagogues or in heavily Jewish areas, the correct answer was not patient, good faith engagement (as this often did not work), but instead to threaten violence against the Palestinian protesters.
This is an absolutely insane state of affairs.'
If you use AI to manipulate and publish an image of someone, can that be defamatory and subject to being checked by libel laws?
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/01/white-house-posts-altered-arrest-photo-to-make-it-appear-ice-critic-was-sobbing/
Karoline Leavitt: “I can understand why President Trump mistook Greenland for Iceland. They share the same border.”
(That might be a joke, but hard to tell.)
At the moment, I have to say my instincts are telling me he is preferable to Keir Starmer because he seems to have a quality of human thought that eludes Starmer - despite Starmer supposedly being more closely aligned with my views on economics.
Is Burnham soft on crime in Manchester? Has he run up billions of debt? I don't know anything about his post Westminster career.
Personally I'd be in favour of a model Andy Burnham or an AI generated Andy Burnham who you can personalise to be as left wing as to your own personal taste.
Obviously, there's nothing remotely provocative about their desire to march through Whitechapel (and bash a few Muslims if they get the chance).
Whether or not this would translate to national leadership is unknown. Starmer is the perfect example of a lack of transferable skills.
Time for Traitors.
@benrileysmith
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49m
EXCLUSIVE
Robert Jenrick is set to be unveiled as Reform’s shadow chancellor within weeks, beating Reform rivals to the role
Zia Yusuf is expected to become shadow home secretary
https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/2014790384476426614
The only reason Plaid lead in Wales is they have ruled out pushing for an independence referendum in their first term
The shadow of Cable Street looms large it would seem.
Does UKIP have an absolute right to march peacefully wherever it chooses? In an ideal world, yes but we know the world isn't ideal and the first role of the Police is to maintain public order, not defend the right to protest. Where the former is threatened by the latter, whether we like it or not, the former takes priority though that's a question and a debate worth having.
In Wales though Reform will likely be main opposition with Labour collapsing to third
I'd take that in Wales HY. So long as Team Putin are nowhere to be seen. I do fear Nathan Gill passed everyone by and they might do better than you think.
SNP: 59 (-5)
LAB: 20 (-2)
RFM: 18 (+18)
CON: 11 (-20)
GRN: 11 (+3)
LDM: 10 (+6)
Second, you don’t need a high iq to vote, only ideally to be an elected representative. Third even the likes of Singapore have multi party democratic elections and is far richer per head than one party state China.
Finally, why would AI always act benevolently? Voters want some say on who controls and regulates and programmes AI to try and ensure it does
As far as Scotland is concerned, others on here have told you are wrong on your anaylsis and even if the SNP were down 5.3% labour were down 16.8%
The Reform surge in Wales is like the Reform surge in England and Scotland. Boat people and Nigel normalising racism.
Is that Reform ramping that or Ben Riley Smith having a useless moment?
I wasn't convinced it was a genuine quote.