I really think Labour has a good chance of being re-elected.
You keep repeating this but there is no evidence that labour is showing any signs of recovery either in Starmer's ratings or his government
Indeed the Burnham story will dominate throught to May, and when Scotland and Wales is a likely bloodbath
Last night labour lost 48.5% of their vote share in Flintshire, and it looks like Plaid will annihilate labour in Wales with reform underperforming
You are very much a loyal Starmerite, but I just do not see a recovery especially post May when Starmer may well have a real fight on his hands to remain the labour leader and PM
Predictions about the politically remote future (over 3 years in this case) have to be based on beliefs and intuitions about what will happen in the future gap, and cannot possibly be based on the snap shot of today or the last few months. Yes, it is informed and thoughtful guesswork. The belief (which I share) is that there are reasons for thinking there will be a recovery for Labour. Personally I do not think I know who will lead the next government. Except that it won't be Reform. If it is led from the left of centre, it will be Labour. And it might.
After May they are likely to be in a terrible position having lost Scotland and Wales and loads of council seats, let alone the potential chaos of the by election in Greater Manchester
Of course 3 years is a long time but I cannot see a recovery under Starmer that would put labour back in government
In Scotland polls give a swing from SNP to Labour since 2021
But much smaller than the swing from Labour to Reform. Labour will suffer a bigger net loss of seats than the SNP. Who do you think will be the official opposition in Scotland and Wales in May, @HYUFD, and everyone else?
The swing from SNP to Reform is bigger than the Scottish swing from Labour to Reform so Labour could take second given polls also show the Scottish Tories collapsing from official opposition at Holyrood in 2021 to fourth now.
In Wales though Reform will likely be main opposition with Labour collapsing to third
So a net swing on seats from SNP to Labour. On that poll also a net swing from SNP and Green to Unionist parties at Holyrood since 2021 as well
I don't think those seats totals are far off, on today's polling
Not much for a gain for Labour if the net loss is 2 seats! That would be a disaster for Scottish Labour if they lost seats on their 2021 result, bear in mind the 22 seats they won then was their lowest total ever in a Holyrood election.
Reform polling has cooled slightly in the past couple of months, the big question is can Labour, Tories (or others) chisel more away from Reform or is there an embedded floor in their vote. I think a lot of working class/previous non voters will turn out and vote for them, so would expect 12/low teens Reform MSPs to be elected at least. Glasgow will be their toughest region to get 2 MSPs.
Interestingly, the SNP won 2 list seats in 2021, 1 in Highlands, 1 in South of Scotland. I'd be surprised if they won any this year, given the drop in their list vote and fierce competition from the Greens.
There is a fairly fine margin between the SNP holding almost all of their central belt constituencies and Labour winning scores via a domino effect (as seen in the 2024GE) but Sarwar and Labour's polling has went into reverse since June 2025. I'd give more chance of John Swinney winning a majority in 2026 than I would of Mr Sarwar becoming FM this year, going by how far Labour trail.
Yes the SNP have lost approx 10% of their vote, but the split opposition will see them nudge over 55 seats again
Perhaps but if unionist tactical voting sees Labour gain constituency seats from the SNP and Reform gain more list seats than the Greens then a unionist majority is very possible even if Swinney remains FM
Morning HYUFD,
Best hope of that is to knock SNP down to somewhere near Ecks 2007 total of 47 seats, where Green votes added wouldn't take the SNP above a 65 majority.
I think the unionist vote is split too many ways for that to happen this time. There are a handful of seats i think Labour will challenge in, more affluent suburbs where Reform are weak, but that apart they will struggle.
I think the Tories *may* hold on in Aberdeenshire and South of Scotland/Borders, but that will depend on keeping Reform at bay. Reform are shooting themselves in the foot for being a Farage one man band who haven't declared any MSP candidates yet, but far be it for me to criticise them. Ground game and candidate choice have been crucial in some of the Scottish by elections recently
The race for the keys to Bute House will start getting more entertaining as we near Easter. Wales looks a lot more competitive this time
Watching Republican voters being asked if they preferred The Affordable Care Act to Obamacare and all of them preferred the Affordable Care Act because they hated Obama.
They were all pleased to see the back of Obamacare because it is unAmerican and socialist. They were all shocked to learn it is the same thing, and now their premiums have doubled, tripled and quadrupled. Turkeys voting for Christmas.
Obamacare won in 2012 when Romney wanted to end it. The 2024 election was more a vote for Trump not woke Harris, tougher border security and deportations and tariffs on imports, especially from China
After a terrible week who could have predicted it would end so well? I've always liked the saying about the dawn following the darkest night and so it has turned out. All we need is the foul stench that is Farage to get the opprobrium he deserves and we can all go home happy.
I've just come in from the pub - what's happened to elicit such enthusiasm?
Not a thing. He says much the same every day. Utterly deluded. I think it's a form of self therapy.
Triggered? Isn't Roger allowed an opinion? Am I not allowed an opinion?
Does anyone get upset when you fly your blue flag? Go ahead, fill your boots.
How many u-turns is that now? Has he managed to get anything through? Other than abortion up to delivery day, the abolition of trans, and possibly the annihilation of the Labour party.
IIUC they agrees to the deal in the first place because America wanted it so it would be weird to carry on with it now America has decided it doesn't want it.
After a terrible week who could have predicted it would end so well? I've always liked the saying about the dawn following the darkest night and so it has turned out. All we need is the foul stench that is Farage to get the opprobrium he deserves and we can all go home happy.
If you were watching the Dem/ anti-Trump YouTube channels I watch you would be completely depressed. In Nazi terms we are somewhere around 1936.
Watching Republican voters being asked if they preferred The Affordable Care Act to Obamacare and all of them preferred the Affordable Care Act because they hated Obama.
They were all pleased to see the back of Obamacare because it is unAmerican and socialist. They were all shocked to learn it is the same thing, and now their premiums have doubled, tripled and quadrupled. Turkeys voting for Christmas.
Obamacare won in 2012 when Romney wanted to end it. The 2024 election was more a vote for Trump not woke Harris, tougher border security and deportations and tariffs on imports, especially from China
Dying because one can't pay health insurance is probably not a great trade off for performative cruelty to non-whites.
After a terrible week who could have predicted it would end so well? I've always liked the saying about the dawn following the darkest night and so it has turned out. All we need is the foul stench that is Farage to get the opprobrium he deserves and we can all go home happy.
If you were watching the Dem/ anti-Trump YouTube channels I watch you would be completely depressed. In Nazi terms we are somewhere around 1936.
Stop watching them then. By that point, Germany had already changed its citizenship laws and nothing of the kind has happened in the US.
How many u-turns is that now? Has he managed to get anything through? Other than abortion up to delivery day, the abolition of trans, and possibly the annihilation of the Labour party.
On the other hand, never U-turning is just as bad as doing a lot of them.
So it's not just that he's bad, he's incompetent at it?
After a terrible week who could have predicted it would end so well? I've always liked the saying about the dawn following the darkest night and so it has turned out. All we need is the foul stench that is Farage to get the opprobrium he deserves and we can all go home happy.
If you were watching the Dem/ anti-Trump YouTube channels I watch you would be completely depressed. In Nazi terms we are somewhere around 1936.
Stop watching them then. By that point, Germany had already changed its citizenship laws and nothing of the kind has happened in the US.
But the evidence is clear. Have you not seen evidence of green card holders beaten up, arrested and sent for weeks to detention camps? For example the woman from Ireland. What about clear violation of 1st Amendment rights. The highly partisan DOJ prosecuting Comey, Tish James, Schiff and Jack Smith, oh and the execution of Renee Good and 100 Venezuelan fisherman. I can say they are fisherman because there was no due process to prove otherwise.
I would have thought after Trump's disingenuous lies regarding British service personnel in Afghanistan you would have kept a low profile until Trump stfu and the coast was clear
I'll carry on watching reality and you can keep being educated by Jesse Watters and Maria Bartiromo.
After a terrible week who could have predicted it would end so well? I've always liked the saying about the dawn following the darkest night and so it has turned out. All we need is the foul stench that is Farage to get the opprobrium he deserves and we can all go home happy.
I've just come in from the pub - what's happened to elicit such enthusiasm?
Not a thing. He says much the same every day. Utterly deluded. I think it's a form of self therapy.
Triggered? Isn't Roger allowed an opinion? Am I not allowed an opinion?
Does anyone get upset when you fly your blue flag? Go ahead, fill your boots.
Roger is absolutely allowed an opinion. But I'm curious about what has happened in the last few hours to make him so happy? I genuinely can't see what's changed since I was here at about teatime.
After a terrible week who could have predicted it would end so well? I've always liked the saying about the dawn following the darkest night and so it has turned out. All we need is the foul stench that is Farage to get the opprobrium he deserves and we can all go home happy.
I've just come in from the pub - what's happened to elicit such enthusiasm?
Not a thing. He says much the same every day. Utterly deluded. I think it's a form of self therapy.
Triggered? Isn't Roger allowed an opinion? Am I not allowed an opinion?
Does anyone get upset when you fly your blue flag? Go ahead, fill your boots.
Roger is absolutely allowed an opinion. But I'm curious about what has happened in the last few hours to make him so happy? I genuinely can't see what's changed since I was here at about teatime.
Maybe he really thought Trump was going to invade Greenland and really thought the European response stopped him.
Maybe he's right. Though I would think on balance it was all Art of the Deal crap, odious though that is.
AI is still giving incorrect results for elections. I asked for a constituency result for 1983 and Google AI gave me the correct result but for 1987 instead.
After a terrible week who could have predicted it would end so well? I've always liked the saying about the dawn following the darkest night and so it has turned out. All we need is the foul stench that is Farage to get the opprobrium he deserves and we can all go home happy.
If you were watching the Dem/ anti-Trump YouTube channels I watch you would be completely depressed. In Nazi terms we are somewhere around 1936.
Stop watching them then. By that point, Germany had already changed its citizenship laws and nothing of the kind has happened in the US.
The people of America are subject to random detention, mistreatment to the point of death, and deportation without due process by an unregulated unbadged armed militia answerable only to federal officials. I'd say their citizenship laws are pretty much fucked, yes?
After a terrible week who could have predicted it would end so well? I've always liked the saying about the dawn following the darkest night and so it has turned out. All we need is the foul stench that is Farage to get the opprobrium he deserves and we can all go home happy.
If you were watching the Dem/ anti-Trump YouTube channels I watch you would be completely depressed. In Nazi terms we are somewhere around 1936.
Stop watching them then. By that point, Germany had already changed its citizenship laws and nothing of the kind has happened in the US.
The people of America are subject to random detention, mistreatment to the point of death, and deportation without due process by an unregulated unbadged armed militia answerable only to federal officials. I'd say their citizenship laws are pretty much fucked, yes?
It’s not fanciful to say that Trump and many of his followers are fascists.
Yet, by 1936 in Germany, they’d witnessed the Night of the Long Knives, the suppression of non-Nazi parties, sports clubs, and trade unions, and the extinction of democracy.
I repeat myself but Starmer needs to call a Rejoin referendum while Trump is still in office. There's no way Trump is going to be able to STFU for the duration of the campaign and when he opens his mouth he'll win it for Rejoin.
Can we set up a 6-month long World Trump Golf tournament with him entering against Tiger Woods, Rory Mcilroy etc? Two rounds of golf a day for months to come to the conclusion Trump is the best golf player of all time.
I would fake even just a few weeks of distraction from the harm he causes in his day job.
Reminds me of that time Kim Jong Il hit a round of 38 under on the 72 par Pyongyang golf course in 1994, in his first ever round of golf.
Of course, I'm sure everyone in North Korea who disagreed with his scorecard lived to tell the tale
It served as a test, just like President Trump's absurd claims about his inauguration crowds first time round.
Comments
Best hope of that is to knock SNP down to somewhere near Ecks 2007 total of 47 seats, where Green votes added wouldn't take the SNP above a 65 majority.
I think the unionist vote is split too many ways for that to happen this time. There are a handful of seats i think Labour will challenge in, more affluent suburbs where Reform are weak, but that apart they will struggle.
I think the Tories *may* hold on in Aberdeenshire and South of Scotland/Borders, but that will depend on keeping Reform at bay. Reform are shooting themselves in the foot for being a Farage one man band who haven't declared any MSP candidates yet, but far be it for me to criticise them. Ground game and candidate choice have been crucial in some of the Scottish by elections recently
The race for the keys to Bute House will start getting more entertaining as we near Easter. Wales looks a lot more competitive this time
Does anyone get upset when you fly your blue flag? Go ahead, fill your boots.
I would have thought after Trump's disingenuous lies regarding British service personnel in Afghanistan you would have kept a low profile until Trump stfu and the coast was clear
I'll carry on watching reality and you can keep being educated by Jesse Watters and Maria Bartiromo.
Maybe he's right. Though I would think on balance it was all Art of the Deal crap, odious though that is.
Yet, by 1936 in Germany, they’d witnessed the Night of the Long Knives, the suppression of non-Nazi parties, sports clubs, and trade unions, and the extinction of democracy.