The next few days pose huge historic tests for politicians the world over. Do they carry on licking this maniac's arse; or do they turn on him; denounce him; come together, and destroy him in the patriotic interests of their countries and humanity?
It’s a completely muddled article. It attacks Badenoch for being policy light and an empty vessel on strong economic idea’s, and attacks centre ground One Nation Toryism to get the crowd cheering
“Absolutely nailed it. I still don't necessarily have faith in Reform, but the one nation Tories celebrating this as an opportunity are the reason I can't bring myself to vote Tory.”
No. The sacking of Jenrick is a very real opportunity for One Nation Conservatism. We just remove Badenoch now and get our party and electability back.
I have spent time on ConHome over the weekend. Without doubt over half the contributors to comments are not Con Members or even Con voters. It’s sometimes like Reform Home, how they are certainly the most cocky, self sure and aggressive ones. It sums up how the right are neatly split and fighting each other, that will be bad for elections.
Without doubt in my mind, the rally round Badenoch over the Jenrick defection is built on the quicksand that ultimately, politically and electorally, you must keep them in tent pissing out, not throw them out. Lady Thatcher sat in cabinets surrounded by One Nation Conservatives, never never never rejoiced at throwing them out, or was celebrated for making them “someone else’s problem now.”
What does this even mean?
"They were not insufficiently right-wing; they were insufficiently competent.”
The next few days pose huge historic tests for politicians the world over. Do they carry on licking this maniac's arse; or do they turn on him; denounce him; come together, and destroy him in the patriotic interests of their countries and humanity?
The weakness with this clap-back at the US is that people are thinking that the governments can just call in these “debts”. Firstly most of the debt is held by investors, funds, banks etc in Europe and a lot of these are ultimately US banks and investors. So forcing or persuading them to flog the bonds is not easy.
Then they have to find buyers for the bonds which will be possible for pennies in the pound but then it creates legal issues if businesses actively lose shareholders’ value. It would also badly damage pension funds for Europeans and the general financial business.
What governments can do is to not buy Us gov debt themselves however I’m sure that Trump will get his mates in Saudi etc to step up to the plate and avoid much of a bond strike.
The damage is long term though for the US where people will be at best sceptical about investing in US assets.
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
You sweet innocent child, do you honestly think Trump will honour zero tariffs?
He changes his mind more times than Bonnie Blue is gang banged.
If SCOTUS rules against Trump on tariffs then Trump's mind changing becomes irrelevent.
Its just possible that Trump's latest tariff ranting is because he's heard that the SCOTUS decision is going against him.
Nah, the administration has said if the court strikes down the tariffs, they will simply re-implement them for other reasons, which would take another year to reach the SC again. It is a repeatable process.
In other words they will do what they want, and the court process is a fiction.
Yes. EOs can order tariffs until they’re struck down. The court process is a fRiction.
Ref 24%(nc), LAB 19%(nc), CON 18%(-2), GRN 17%(+3) LDEM 14%(-2),
Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)
Very good poll for Starmer I would suggest, Labour overtake the Tories for second and now just 5% behind Reform. Good poll for Polanski too with the Greens up 3%, from the LDs but it seems also from the Tories? The Greens now just 1% behind the Tories with Yougov and clearly ahead of the LDs who are fifth now.
Bad poll for Farage, after the Jenrick and Rosindell defections Reform have not gained any voteshare at all. Awful poll for Kemi, Tories now fallen back behind Labour after losing Jenrick and barely ahead of the Greens. Terrible poll for Davey too with LDs now also rans and behind even the Greens
The Yougov poll gives Reform 257, Labour 113, LDs 81, Tories 64, SNP 47, Greens 45, PC 17, MIN 7, DUP 5.
So a very hung parliament but Farage could become PM if he got Tory and DUP support
US House Speaker Mike Johnson addressing MPs & Peers in parliament…
“[The UK & US have] always been able to work through our differences calmly as friends, and we will continue to do that. I want to assure you this morning that that is still the case”.
@BethRigby Trump detonating series of bombshells on Truth Social overnight: leaking private messages from President Macron, posting image of Canada and Greenland as part of the US and going all out on PM Starmer and UK by calling the Chagos deal an ‘act of great stupidity’, and opening him up to attacks from opposition MPs long-opposed to the deal.
Been speaking around government this morning to get a sense of what the hell is going on after the PM yesterday sought to reiterate the UK’s position on Greenland while also trying to de-escalate, stressing the strong relationship, dodging the matter of retaliatory tariffs (although not ruling it out) and avoiding any incendiary language adopted by other leaders clearly fed up with Trump.
What’s clear is a sense that Trump is trying to pressure UK by going hostile on Chagos - he clearly links the Chagos deal to Greenland in the post. But what is also clear, is that UK govt is not going to change positon on Greenland, nor it is going to wobble on Chagos and will press on with the agreement with the Mauritian government.
But the lashing out against the UK and Starmer seems to be part of a bigger assault on allies - as Trump reveals private messages with Macron and shares a map of Canada as US territory, which will no doubt explode in Canada when the country wakes up in a few hours.
This is what work and pensions secretary Pat McFadden just said: “What we saw last night... was a series of posts criticising a number of world leaders. That may tell us that the President is frustrated right now. I don't really believe this is about Chagos. I think it's about Greenland and the best way to resolve that is through dialogue with the Danish government and that's what we've said all along.”
Trump is clearly frustrated that European allies are standing firm on Greenland and facing down this threats, regardless of the consequences on the tariffs. Meanwhile, his Board of Peace plan has also fallen flat as the President demands $1bn for membership of a club that seems intended to undermine the United Nations. France intends to reject Trump’s invitation over concerns that it would call into question “the principles and structure of the United Nations,” according to a reports from the AFP news agency, while the UK government has “severe reservations” about the project’s legal framework, according to the The Times.
Yesterday, the former Danish PM and Danish Foreign minister Lars Rasmussen told me how surprised he’d been by Trump’s public threats on social media over the weekend because he thought Denmark had come to an agreement with Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio that the profound disagreement on Greenland would be negotiated away from social media.
“We agreed that we should move this dialogue from social media and Truth Social...I thought, we have managed not to solve the problem, but to find a pathway forward. It was disrupted, by the statement from the president. And that's a reality of life.”
It’s a reality all leaders dealing with, as Trump’s increasingly erratic behaviour with allies makes the US almost impossible to deal with, though the UK positon is that it must continue to try.
Last night I was told it was “highly unlikely” the PM would attend Davos given that there is no sign of any resolution or big set piece of multi-lateral meeting in resolution of the biggest matters for the UK and EU - Greenland and Ukraine. But am told there will be engagement with the US administration this morning and conversation in Davos between UK and US players.
But Trump turning on Starmer after all the PM’s efforts to build a good relationship, is undoubtedly a blow and raise questions about how else Starmer might have dealt with Trump. For the UK’s part, it managed to negotiate better trade terms during that purple patch. But now, this relationship is clearly under huge strain. I imagine Starmer will ignore it and carry on, his problem is that his opponents will not
US House Speaker Mike Johnson addressing MPs & Peers in parliament…
“[The UK & US have] always been able to work through our differences calmly as friends, and we will continue to do that. I want to assure you this morning that that is still the case”.
Why are we letting the gaslighting toad speak at all ? He's a pitiful and powerless apologist for Trump's worst excesses.
After the Greenland tariff threats, we should have politely uninvited him.
Er, no. A problem is that too many of these Republican politicians exist in a bubble. It's good that this guy is in Westminster.
Reminding Johnson that, actually, we are a friend an ally of the US, and that it should be possible to resolve problems without resorting to a full-scale trade war is not a bad idea. If we can get people like him to invest in that approach then there is - just - a chance that this could be defused. Obvs, with a maniac like Trump in the White House nothing is guaranteed but, at least, let's try to engage.
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
You sweet innocent child, do you honestly think Trump will honour zero tariffs?
He changes his mind more times than Bonnie Blue is gang banged.
If SCOTUS rules against Trump on tariffs then Trump's mind changing becomes irrelevent.
Its just possible that Trump's latest tariff ranting is because he's heard that the SCOTUS decision is going against him.
Nah, the administration has said if the court strikes down the tariffs, they will simply re-implement them for other reasons, which would take another year to reach the SC again. It is a repeatable process.
In other words they will do what they want, and the court process is a fiction.
He might try but importers and Dems will be going to their local friendly federal judge to get them blocked.
It would likely get very messy very quickly.
Messy is a feature of Trumps "policies" not a problem to the administration.
The next few days pose huge historic tests for politicians the world over. Do they carry on licking this maniac's arse; or do they turn on him; denounce him; come together, and destroy him in the patriotic interests of their countries and humanity?
Personal finance wise - what are some good ways to 1) protect existing portfolios and 2) speculate on doomsday scenarios
If things progress in that direction, it means higher inflation, higher interest rates, falling stock and bond prices, and a falling $. The assets you'd expect to hold their value or rise would be gold and precious metals - already at record highs in anticipation - and possibly broader commodity markets (except fear of economic contraction could hit oil), as well as index-linked gilts and other inflation-tied bonds. Plus spread betting on these changes, and selling into cash and taking advantage of rising interest rates. You could also look for markets likely to ride the storm, such as China and Vietnam - both good performers last year.
The counter-case is that leaders around the world, from Trump downwards, are desperate to get some growth going and may seek to boost economies by throwing money at them, in anticipation of which markets might remain high despite poor underlying economic worry.
I've done a bit of selling into cash and am generally positioned fairly conservatively already. I already had a decent holding of a gold mining trust and have until recently continued my practice of keeping its cash value the same, which has meant selling slices as the price went up - but have now stopped selling so that its value is above my benchmark. How long gold will defy gravity as Trump continues his rampage through reality, who knows?
The next few days pose huge historic tests for politicians the world over. Do they carry on licking this maniac's arse; or do they turn on him; denounce him; come together, and destroy him in the patriotic interests of their countries and humanity?
The weakness with this clap-back at the US is that people are thinking that the governments can just call in these “debts”. Firstly most of the debt is held by investors, funds, banks etc in Europe and a lot of these are ultimately US banks and investors. So forcing or persuading them to flog the bonds is not easy.
Then they have to find buyers for the bonds which will be possible for pennies in the pound but then it creates legal issues if businesses actively lose shareholders’ value. It would also badly damage pension funds for Europeans and the general financial business.
What governments can do is to not buy Us gov debt themselves however I’m sure that Trump will get his mates in Saudi etc to step up to the plate and avoid much of a bond strike.
The damage is long term though for the US where people will be at best sceptical about investing in US assets.
There's a subset who are happy to crash personal pension values but are not willing to cut welfare.
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?
It's clearly the latter, because Farage posted on Chagos in his response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland, just two.days ago.
And is posting again today to praise Trump for this post.
“Shockingly, our “brilliant” NATO Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital U.S. Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognize STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"
May last year.
“Today, the United States welcomed the historic agreement between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Mauritius on the future of the British Indian Ocean Territory—specifically, the Chagos Archipelago.”
“President Trump expressed his support for this monumental achievement during his meeting with Prime Minister Starmer at the White House.”
“Following a comprehensive interagency review, the Trump Administration determined that this agreement secures the long-term, stable, and effective operation of the joint U.S.-UK military facility at Diego Garcia.”
“We commend both the United Kingdom and Mauritius for their leadership, vision, and commitment to ensure that Diego Garcia remains fully operational for the duration of this agreement.”
(Rubio)
If you actually watched what was being said at the time, it was fairly obvious that the US thought the Chagos deal was a stupid idea that they were going along with because the UK was insisting on it & the treaties were a hangover from the Biden administration. So long as the security of Diego Garcia was maintained we could do whatever dumb shit we wanted.
Trump has just decompensated to the point where he says what he actually thinks pretty much all the time & is no longer able to maintain any kind of diplomatic front to avoid insulting US allies.
In this case we fully deserve to be insulted franky, but I don’t think the Trump regime’s internal view of this deal has changed one iota. The Biden regime probably thought it was stupid too, they were just capable of keeping that view behind closed doors.
Dear Marge
.......If anyone mentions the word 'Chagos' I mentally put their posts into a compartment marked NERD. So Nerdy and uninteresting in fact that it makes 'Lab Leaks in Wuhan' feel like an Afcon Cup final......
Am I the only one?
Oh, it’s definitely a topic that only real politics nerds are aware of.
Which is exactly why Hermer & his friends in Mauritius (& the Foreign Office?) have been able to ram through a deal that not even the Chagossians themselves want.
The next few days pose huge historic tests for politicians the world over. Do they carry on licking this maniac's arse; or do they turn on him; denounce him; come together, and destroy him in the patriotic interests of their countries and humanity?
The weakness with this clap-back at the US is that people are thinking that the governments can just call in these “debts”. Firstly most of the debt is held by investors, funds, banks etc in Europe and a lot of these are ultimately US banks and investors. So forcing or persuading them to flog the bonds is not easy.
Then they have to find buyers for the bonds which will be possible for pennies in the pound but then it creates legal issues if businesses actively lose shareholders’ value. It would also badly damage pension funds for Europeans and the general financial business.
What governments can do is to not buy Us gov debt themselves however I’m sure that Trump will get his mates in Saudi etc to step up to the plate and avoid much of a bond strike.
The damage is long term though for the US where people will be at best sceptical about investing in US assets.
I'm sure a US Gov front org would love to buy a mass of US debt for a few cents on the dollar.
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
You sweet innocent child, do you honestly think Trump will honour zero tariffs?
He changes his mind more times than Bonnie Blue is gang banged.
If SCOTUS rules against Trump on tariffs then Trump's mind changing becomes irrelevent.
Its just possible that Trump's latest tariff ranting is because he's heard that the SCOTUS decision is going against him.
Nah, the administration has said if the court strikes down the tariffs, they will simply re-implement them for other reasons, which would take another year to reach the SC again. It is a repeatable process.
In other words they will do what they want, and the court process is a fiction.
He might try but importers and Dems will be going to their local friendly federal judge to get them blocked.
It would likely get very messy very quickly.
Messy is a feature of Trumps "policies" not a problem to the administration.
US House Speaker Mike Johnson addressing MPs & Peers in parliament…
“[The UK & US have] always been able to work through our differences calmly as friends, and we will continue to do that. I want to assure you this morning that that is still the case”.
Why are we letting the gaslighting toad speak at all ? He's a pitiful and powerless apologist for Trump's worst excesses.
After the Greenland tariff threats, we should have politely uninvited him.
Er, no. A problem is that too many of these Republican politicians exist in a bubble. It's good that this guy is in Westminster.
Reminding Johnson that, actually, we are a friend an ally of the US, and that it should be possible to resolve problems without resorting to a full-scale trade war is not a bad idea. If we can get people like him to invest in that approach then there is - just - a chance that this could be defused. Obvs, with a maniac like Trump in the White House nothing is guaranteed but, at least, let's try to engage.
Have you ever seen Johnson questioned, on anything ?
The idea that we can "engage" with him is utterly ridiculous. He serves one purpose only, and that is to enable Trump.
Inviting him to address Parliament is a nothing more than a demonstration of subservience to a minion.
The next few days pose huge historic tests for politicians the world over. Do they carry on licking this maniac's arse; or do they turn on him; denounce him; come together, and destroy him in the patriotic interests of their countries and humanity?
The Russians are complaining that the two Russian sailors from the tanker the US boarded in the North Atlantic haven't been sent home yet. Comes to something when even the Russians are complaining that the US doesn't stick to its word.
The next few days pose huge historic tests for politicians the world over. Do they carry on licking this maniac's arse; or do they turn on him; denounce him; come together, and destroy him in the patriotic interests of their countries and humanity?
Personal finance wise - what are some good ways to 1) protect existing portfolios and 2) speculate on doomsday scenarios
If things progress in that direction, it means higher inflation, higher interest rates, falling stock and bond prices, and a falling $. The assets you'd expect to hold their value or rise would be gold and precious metals - already at record highs in anticipation - and possibly broader commodity markets (except fear of economic contraction could hit oil), as well as index-linked gilts and other inflation-tied bonds. Plus spread betting on these changes, and selling into cash and taking advantage of rising interest rates. You could also look for markets likely to ride the storm, such as China and Vietnam - both good performers last year.
The counter-case is that leaders around the world, from Trump downwards, are desperate to get some growth going and may seek to boost economies by throwing money at them, in anticipation of which markets might remain high despite poor underlying economic worry.
I've done a bit of selling into cash and am generally positioned fairly conservatively already. I already had a decent holding of a gold mining trust and have until recently continued my practice of keeping its cash value the same, which has meant selling slices as the price went up - but have now stopped selling so that its value is above my benchmark. How long gold will defy gravity as Trump continues his rampage through reality, who knows?
Thanks, good summary there. I've tried increasing my cash % but the stock markets keep rising for little obvious reason despite the risks and bring the cash % back down. Worse problems to have I guess. New investments since Trumps re-election have mostly gone to Asia, agree with that approach.
Never been able to bring myself to buy gold for some reason - just doesn't seem like a "real" investment, despite being happy to bet heavily on sports events. Commodities generally makes sense and could consider gold mining rather than gold itself.
At what stage do we need to think about where the investment platforms we use are domiciled and/or owned? Waking up to a Trump tweet saying UK investors funds are frozen until Starmer does x,y or z doesn't seem completely impossible.
Welsh Tories fire Senedd health spokesman James Evans for speaking to Reform 'about the possibility of defecting'.
"Why didn't they ask Evans?" Oh, they did?
Did they ask Evans, or did Evans ask them?
But (serious tone of voice) what has happened to the tradecraft of political duplicity? If Evans can't organise a clandestine conspiracy properly, surely he's too stupid to be a frontline politician.
US House Speaker Mike Johnson addressing MPs & Peers in parliament…
“[The UK & US have] always been able to work through our differences calmly as friends, and we will continue to do that. I want to assure you this morning that that is still the case”.
Why are we letting the gaslighting toad speak at all ? He's a pitiful and powerless apologist for Trump's worst excesses.
After the Greenland tariff threats, we should have politely uninvited him.
Er, no. A problem is that too many of these Republican politicians exist in a bubble. It's good that this guy is in Westminster.
Reminding Johnson that, actually, we are a friend an ally of the US, and that it should be possible to resolve problems without resorting to a full-scale trade war is not a bad idea. If we can get people like him to invest in that approach then there is - just - a chance that this could be defused. Obvs, with a maniac like Trump in the White House nothing is guaranteed but, at least, let's try to engage.
US Speaker Johnson has also made clear he favours diplomacy over Greenland not military force
Since 14th Jan 10y gilt yields have risen 14bp while 10y US Treasury yields are up 16bp and yields on 10y German Bunds and Japanese JGBs have risen 17bp.
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
You sweet innocent child, do you honestly think Trump will honour zero tariffs?
He changes his mind more times than Bonnie Blue is gang banged.
If SCOTUS rules against Trump on tariffs then Trump's mind changing becomes irrelevent.
Its just possible that Trump's latest tariff ranting is because he's heard that the SCOTUS decision is going against him.
Nah, the administration has said if the court strikes down the tariffs, they will simply re-implement them for other reasons, which would take another year to reach the SC again. It is a repeatable process.
In other words they will do what they want, and the court process is a fiction.
He might try but importers and Dems will be going to their local friendly federal judge to get them blocked.
It would likely get very messy very quickly.
Messy is a feature of Trumps "policies" not a problem to the administration.
Messy might help those with inside info grift.
But it doesn't help the economy as a whole.
You think Trump cares about the economy as a whole? Wow!
Ref 24%(nc), LAB 19%(nc), CON 18%(-2), GRN 17%(+3) LDEM 14%(-2),
Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)
Very good poll for Starmer I would suggest, Labour overtake the Tories for second and now just 5% behind Reform. Good poll for Polanski too with the Greens up 3%, from the LDs but it seems also from the Tories? The Greens now just 1% behind the Tories with Yougov and clearly ahead of the LDs who are fifth now.
Bad poll for Farage, after the Jenrick and Rosindell defections Reform have not gained any voteshare at all. Awful poll for Kemi, Tories now fallen back behind Labour after losing Jenrick and barely ahead of the Greens. Terrible poll for Davey too with LDs now also rans and behind even the Greens
The Yougov poll gives Reform 257, Labour 113, LDs 81, Tories 64, SNP 47, Greens 45, PC 17, MIN 7, DUP 5.
So a very hung parliament but Farage could become PM if he got Tory and DUP support
Just in: the European Union's response to Trump's 10% tariffs will be "unflinching, united and proportional", Ursula von der Leyen says in Davos.
"The proposed additional tariffs are a mistake, especially between long-standing allies."
Von der Leyen reminds Trump of the EU-US trade deal that the two concluded last year in Scotland, implicitly warning the 10% tariff would blow it up.
"In politics as in business: a deal is a deal. And when friends shake hands, it must mean something."
Von der Leyen then promises a new Arctic package that will trigger a "massive" surge of investment in Greenland to support "the local economy and infrastructure".
"At the heart of this will be the fundamental principle: It is for sovereign people to decide their own future."
US House Speaker Mike Johnson addressing MPs & Peers in parliament…
“[The UK & US have] always been able to work through our differences calmly as friends, and we will continue to do that. I want to assure you this morning that that is still the case”.
Why are we letting the gaslighting toad speak at all ? He's a pitiful and powerless apologist for Trump's worst excesses.
After the Greenland tariff threats, we should have politely uninvited him.
Er, no. A problem is that too many of these Republican politicians exist in a bubble. It's good that this guy is in Westminster.
Reminding Johnson that, actually, we are a friend an ally of the US, and that it should be possible to resolve problems without resorting to a full-scale trade war is not a bad idea. If we can get people like him to invest in that approach then there is - just - a chance that this could be defused. Obvs, with a maniac like Trump in the White House nothing is guaranteed but, at least, let's try to engage.
US Speaker Johnson has also made clear he favours diplomacy over Greenland not military force
He’s definitely worth engaging, well used to herding cats in the US House and has a line to the top.
If the vehement UK opposition to the last 48 hours of Trump is made explicitly clear to him…
The next few days pose huge historic tests for politicians the world over. Do they carry on licking this maniac's arse; or do they turn on him; denounce him; come together, and destroy him in the patriotic interests of their countries and humanity?
The weakness with this clap-back at the US is that people are thinking that the governments can just call in these “debts”. Firstly most of the debt is held by investors, funds, banks etc in Europe and a lot of these are ultimately US banks and investors. So forcing or persuading them to flog the bonds is not easy.
Then they have to find buyers for the bonds which will be possible for pennies in the pound but then it creates legal issues if businesses actively lose shareholders’ value. It would also badly damage pension funds for Europeans and the general financial business.
What governments can do is to not buy Us gov debt themselves however I’m sure that Trump will get his mates in Saudi etc to step up to the plate and avoid much of a bond strike.
The damage is long term though for the US where people will be at best sceptical about investing in US assets.
I've sold all my US holdings, stopped buying US stuff such as wine, cancelled my booked big US trip for this year, and cancelled all my US subscritions except Amazon (suspended for a few months but it's sadly too much hassle to do without). My devices are tied to Microsoft and Apple but the things I need to pay ongoing from them are negligible. I wish I had more US stuff to cancel, given that Trump is so determined to use trade as a weapon against his former friends.
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Good but unless the Tories overtake Reform and Labour on voteshare it means little
Well, yes. The hope must be that the party vote-share is a lagging indicator, and if the leader ratings remain robust that it will slowly start to uptick too. I suspect it won't make much difference in terms of May - big gains for Reform nailed on - so the preoccupation for the Badenoch team is to keep the vessel afloat during that period of turbulence, and then hope for more steady progress during the latter part of 2026.
Just in: the European Union's response to Trump's 10% tariffs will be "unflinching, united and proportional", Ursula von der Leyen says in Davos.
"The proposed additional tariffs are a mistake, especially between long-standing allies."
Von der Leyen reminds Trump of the EU-US trade deal that the two concluded last year in Scotland, implicitly warning the 10% tariff would blow it up.
"In politics as in business: a deal is a deal. And when friends shake hands, it must mean something."
Von der Leyen then promises a new Arctic package that will trigger a "massive" surge of investment in Greenland to support "the local economy and infrastructure".
"At the heart of this will be the fundamental principle: It is for sovereign people to decide their own future."
Should have gone for exponential retaliation rather than proportional.
Last night's Russian attacks on Ukraine targeted substations that connect Ukraine's nuclear power plants to the grid. This is pretty risky in terms of the nuclear safety of the plants. Earlier in the war, when similar was happening around the nuclear plant in Zaporizhia, this would have been very big news. World leaders would have spoken out about it. Now, nothing.
One good reason for Europe to step up its support for Ukraine and to help them win is that winning the war would reduce the number of desk-clearing important events that they have to deal with.
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
You sweet innocent child, do you honestly think Trump will honour zero tariffs?
He changes his mind more times than Bonnie Blue is gang banged.
If SCOTUS rules against Trump on tariffs then Trump's mind changing becomes irrelevent.
Its just possible that Trump's latest tariff ranting is because he's heard that the SCOTUS decision is going against him.
Nah, the administration has said if the court strikes down the tariffs, they will simply re-implement them for other reasons, which would take another year to reach the SC again. It is a repeatable process.
In other words they will do what they want, and the court process is a fiction.
He might try but importers and Dems will be going to their local friendly federal judge to get them blocked.
It would likely get very messy very quickly.
Messy is a feature of Trumps "policies" not a problem to the administration.
Messy might help those with inside info grift.
But it doesn't help the economy as a whole.
You think Trump cares about the economy as a whole? Wow!
He will when Wall St opens well down in a few hours’ time.
Last night's Russian attacks on Ukraine targeted substations that connect Ukraine's nuclear power plants to the grid. This is pretty risky in terms of the nuclear safety of the plants. Earlier in the war, when similar was happening around the nuclear plant in Zaporizhia, this would have been very big news. World leaders would have spoken out about it. Now, nothing.
One good reason for Europe to step up its support for Ukraine and to help them win is that winning the war would reduce the number of desk-clearing important events that they have to deal with.
The implied nuclear threat needs to be at the absolute top of everyone’s agenda right now, despite all the other chaos that’s going on.
Anyone with a line to Trump needs to know that American Patriot missiles were what prevented a potential global nuclear catastrophe last night.
Last night's Russian attacks on Ukraine targeted substations that connect Ukraine's nuclear power plants to the grid. This is pretty risky in terms of the nuclear safety of the plants. Earlier in the war, when similar was happening around the nuclear plant in Zaporizhia, this would have been very big news. World leaders would have spoken out about it. Now, nothing.
One good reason for Europe to step up its support for Ukraine and to help them win is that winning the war would reduce the number of desk-clearing important events that they have to deal with.
There had been a local ceasefire to allow work to reconnect to the grid to allow power in to keep the safety systems working. There had been a halt for a fortnight by UKraine on hitting refineries. A suggestion they were linked. If the Russians have stepped up attacks to again isolate the nuclear power, then the Russian refineries will blaze again.
The next few days pose huge historic tests for politicians the world over. Do they carry on licking this maniac's arse; or do they turn on him; denounce him; come together, and destroy him in the patriotic interests of their countries and humanity?
Personal finance wise - what are some good ways to 1) protect existing portfolios and 2) speculate on doomsday scenarios
If things progress in that direction, it means higher inflation, higher interest rates, falling stock and bond prices, and a falling $. The assets you'd expect to hold their value or rise would be gold and precious metals - already at record highs in anticipation - and possibly broader commodity markets (except fear of economic contraction could hit oil), as well as index-linked gilts and other inflation-tied bonds. Plus spread betting on these changes, and selling into cash and taking advantage of rising interest rates. You could also look for markets likely to ride the storm, such as China and Vietnam - both good performers last year.
The counter-case is that leaders around the world, from Trump downwards, are desperate to get some growth going and may seek to boost economies by throwing money at them, in anticipation of which markets might remain high despite poor underlying economic worry.
I've done a bit of selling into cash and am generally positioned fairly conservatively already. I already had a decent holding of a gold mining trust and have until recently continued my practice of keeping its cash value the same, which has meant selling slices as the price went up - but have now stopped selling so that its value is above my benchmark. How long gold will defy gravity as Trump continues his rampage through reality, who knows?
Thanks, good summary there. I've tried increasing my cash % but the stock markets keep rising for little obvious reason despite the risks and bring the cash % back down. Worse problems to have I guess. New investments since Trumps re-election have mostly gone to Asia, agree with that approach.
Never been able to bring myself to buy gold for some reason - just doesn't seem like a "real" investment, despite being happy to bet heavily on sports events. Commodities generally makes sense and could consider gold mining rather than gold itself.
At what stage do we need to think about where the investment platforms we use are domiciled and/or owned? Waking up to a Trump tweet saying UK investors funds are frozen until Starmer does x,y or z doesn't seem completely impossible.
Unusually, over recent months gold mining has done better than gold itself. Silver has also done better than gold, and has industrial uses to underpin real value, but is also a lot more volatile.
There are also some very good defensive investments where, for whatever is their management charge, they do much of the work for you - I'm thinking of things like Ruffer, Troy Trojan, Personal Assets, BNY Mellon Real Return.
And of course if you can find a smaller company with prospects, the wider market sentiment is of lesser importance. Africa Airtel is a good example, which is rolling out pay-by-mobile in various African countries, which has almost trebled since I bought in. Defence stocks have also done very well, and while the big players are riding high, there are some interesting smaller defence-related companies, such as SRT Marine, that might have decent prospects. Small companies are obviously risky so always DYOR. I also have a spread betting sell position on the Dow as a hedge, which will pay off if everything goes t*ts up. And on Tesla, which made money back last year, but the bit I held onto has so far proved an expensive mistake.
Just in: the European Union's response to Trump's 10% tariffs will be "unflinching, united and proportional", Ursula von der Leyen says in Davos.
"The proposed additional tariffs are a mistake, especially between long-standing allies."
Von der Leyen reminds Trump of the EU-US trade deal that the two concluded last year in Scotland, implicitly warning the 10% tariff would blow it up.
"In politics as in business: a deal is a deal. And when friends shake hands, it must mean something."
Von der Leyen then promises a new Arctic package that will trigger a "massive" surge of investment in Greenland to support "the local economy and infrastructure".
"At the heart of this will be the fundamental principle: It is for sovereign people to decide their own future."
The next few days pose huge historic tests for politicians the world over. Do they carry on licking this maniac's arse; or do they turn on him; denounce him; come together, and destroy him in the patriotic interests of their countries and humanity?
Personal finance wise - what are some good ways to 1) protect existing portfolios and 2) speculate on doomsday scenarios
If things progress in that direction, it means higher inflation, higher interest rates, falling stock and bond prices, and a falling $. The assets you'd expect to hold their value or rise would be gold and precious metals - already at record highs in anticipation - and possibly broader commodity markets (except fear of economic contraction could hit oil), as well as index-linked gilts and other inflation-tied bonds. Plus spread betting on these changes, and selling into cash and taking advantage of rising interest rates. You could also look for markets likely to ride the storm, such as China and Vietnam - both good performers last year.
The counter-case is that leaders around the world, from Trump downwards, are desperate to get some growth going and may seek to boost economies by throwing money at them, in anticipation of which markets might remain high despite poor underlying economic worry.
I've done a bit of selling into cash and am generally positioned fairly conservatively already. I already had a decent holding of a gold mining trust and have until recently continued my practice of keeping its cash value the same, which has meant selling slices as the price went up - but have now stopped selling so that its value is above my benchmark. How long gold will defy gravity as Trump continues his rampage through reality, who knows?
Thanks, good summary there. I've tried increasing my cash % but the stock markets keep rising for little obvious reason despite the risks and bring the cash % back down. Worse problems to have I guess. New investments since Trumps re-election have mostly gone to Asia, agree with that approach.
Never been able to bring myself to buy gold for some reason - just doesn't seem like a "real" investment, despite being happy to bet heavily on sports events. Commodities generally makes sense and could consider gold mining rather than gold itself.
At what stage do we need to think about where the investment platforms we use are domiciled and/or owned? Waking up to a Trump tweet saying UK investors funds are frozen until Starmer does x,y or z doesn't seem completely impossible.
Unusually, over recent months gold mining has done better than gold itself. Silver has also done better than gold, and has industrial uses to underpin real value, but is also a lot more volatile.
There are also some very good defensive investments where, for whatever is their management charge, they do much of the work for you - I'm thinking of things like Ruffer, Troy Trojan, Personal Assets, BNY Mellon Real Return.
And of course if you can find a smaller company with prospects, the wider market sentiment is of lesser importance. Africa Airtel is a good example, which is rolling out pay-by-mobile in various African countries, which has almost trebled since I bought in. Defence stocks have also done very well, and while the big players are riding high, there are some interesting smaller defence-related companies, such as SRT Marine, that might have decent prospects. Small companies are obviously risky so always DYOR.
Weirdly I do have some SRT Marine shares! And my best % profit on a share investment is from a African miner. Put off small shares now though after quite a few delistings, unfavourable takeovers and the extra associated admin of tracking it.
Last night's Russian attacks on Ukraine targeted substations that connect Ukraine's nuclear power plants to the grid. This is pretty risky in terms of the nuclear safety of the plants. Earlier in the war, when similar was happening around the nuclear plant in Zaporizhia, this would have been very big news. World leaders would have spoken out about it. Now, nothing.
One good reason for Europe to step up its support for Ukraine and to help them win is that winning the war would reduce the number of desk-clearing important events that they have to deal with.
The implied nuclear threat needs to be at the absolute top of everyone’s agenda right now, despite all the other chaos that’s going on.
Anyone with a line to Trump needs to know that American Patriot missiles were what prevented a potential global nuclear catastrophe last night.
Europe has a Patriot-equivalent system - SAMP/T - but the interceptor missiles used (Aster 30) are only being produced at the rate of 270-300 per year. The company manufacturing them seems to be very proud of being ahead of schedule on the plan to increase production by 50% in 2026 compared to 2022, which falls well short of what is required.
This is the sort of thing that is so frustrating about Europe at the moment. The potential is there, but the execution is sorely lacking.
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?
It's clearly the latter, because Farage posted on Chagos in his response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland, just two.days ago.
And is posting again today to praise Trump for this post.
“Shockingly, our “brilliant” NATO Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital U.S. Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognize STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"
May last year.
“Today, the United States welcomed the historic agreement between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Mauritius on the future of the British Indian Ocean Territory—specifically, the Chagos Archipelago.”
“President Trump expressed his support for this monumental achievement during his meeting with Prime Minister Starmer at the White House.”
“Following a comprehensive interagency review, the Trump Administration determined that this agreement secures the long-term, stable, and effective operation of the joint U.S.-UK military facility at Diego Garcia.”
“We commend both the United Kingdom and Mauritius for their leadership, vision, and commitment to ensure that Diego Garcia remains fully operational for the duration of this agreement.”
(Rubio)
If you actually watched what was being said at the time, it was fairly obvious that the US thought the Chagos deal was a stupid idea that they were going along with because the UK was insisting on it & the treaties were a hangover from the Biden administration. So long as the security of Diego Garcia was maintained we could do whatever dumb shit we wanted.
Trump has just decompensated to the point where he says what he actually thinks pretty much all the time & is no longer able to maintain any kind of diplomatic front to avoid insulting US allies.
In this case we fully deserve to be insulted franky, but I don’t think the Trump regime’s internal view of this deal has changed one iota. The Biden regime probably thought it was stupid too, they were just capable of keeping that view behind closed doors.
Dear Marge
.......If anyone mentions the word 'Chagos' I mentally put their posts into a compartment marked NERD. So Nerdy and uninteresting in fact that it makes 'Lab Leaks in Wuhan' feel like an Afcon Cup final......
Am I the only one?
Oh, it’s definitely a topic that only real politics nerds are aware of.
Which is exactly why Hermer & his friends in Mauritius (& the Foreign Office?) have been able to ram through a deal that not even the Chagossians themselves want.
But what I don't understand is what difference this will make to any politics that any of us are interested in?
PROBABLY even in this nerd infested pond .......no one will have been there......know or care what the islanders want or see an injustice that gives it a human interest angle. No one wants to nick their mineral rights........
I was in New York during the Falklands crisis and a taxi driver said to me "Tell me what is it about these Islands. As I see it all they've got is 180,000 sheep?"
Just in: the European Union's response to Trump's 10% tariffs will be "unflinching, united and proportional", Ursula von der Leyen says in Davos.
"The proposed additional tariffs are a mistake, especially between long-standing allies."
Von der Leyen reminds Trump of the EU-US trade deal that the two concluded last year in Scotland, implicitly warning the 10% tariff would blow it up.
"In politics as in business: a deal is a deal. And when friends shake hands, it must mean something."
Von der Leyen then promises a new Arctic package that will trigger a "massive" surge of investment in Greenland to support "the local economy and infrastructure".
"At the heart of this will be the fundamental principle: It is for sovereign people to decide their own future."
"We will not flinch..."
Cue Brass Eye - War....
What's with "proportional"? You don't counter an attack with tit-for-tat, you go in hard with both feet, full, destructive force.
Good but unless the Tories overtake Reform and Labour on voteshare it means little
They have 3 years to do that and Badenoch is very much on the rise, as Farage's far right pro Trump - Putin mob will be found out by the electorate
We must hope so. At the end of the day the majority of people are squeamish, if not downright hostile, to the prospect of Farage as Prime Minister. It would be a huge norm-shattering step. Protest vote, yes. But running the country?
The next few days pose huge historic tests for politicians the world over. Do they carry on licking this maniac's arse; or do they turn on him; denounce him; come together, and destroy him in the patriotic interests of their countries and humanity?
Personal finance wise - what are some good ways to 1) protect existing portfolios and 2) speculate on doomsday scenarios
If things progress in that direction, it means higher inflation, higher interest rates, falling stock and bond prices, and a falling $. The assets you'd expect to hold their value or rise would be gold and precious metals - already at record highs in anticipation - and possibly broader commodity markets (except fear of economic contraction could hit oil), as well as index-linked gilts and other inflation-tied bonds. Plus spread betting on these changes, and selling into cash and taking advantage of rising interest rates. You could also look for markets likely to ride the storm, such as China and Vietnam - both good performers last year.
The counter-case is that leaders around the world, from Trump downwards, are desperate to get some growth going and may seek to boost economies by throwing money at them, in anticipation of which markets might remain high despite poor underlying economic worry.
I've done a bit of selling into cash and am generally positioned fairly conservatively already. I already had a decent holding of a gold mining trust and have until recently continued my practice of keeping its cash value the same, which has meant selling slices as the price went up - but have now stopped selling so that its value is above my benchmark. How long gold will defy gravity as Trump continues his rampage through reality, who knows?
Thanks, good summary there. I've tried increasing my cash % but the stock markets keep rising for little obvious reason despite the risks and bring the cash % back down. Worse problems to have I guess. New investments since Trumps re-election have mostly gone to Asia, agree with that approach.
Never been able to bring myself to buy gold for some reason - just doesn't seem like a "real" investment, despite being happy to bet heavily on sports events. Commodities generally makes sense and could consider gold mining rather than gold itself.
At what stage do we need to think about where the investment platforms we use are domiciled and/or owned? Waking up to a Trump tweet saying UK investors funds are frozen until Starmer does x,y or z doesn't seem completely impossible.
Unusually, over recent months gold mining has done better than gold itself. Silver has also done better than gold, and has industrial uses to underpin real value, but is also a lot more volatile.
There are also some very good defensive investments where, for whatever is their management charge, they do much of the work for you - I'm thinking of things like Ruffer, Troy Trojan, Personal Assets, BNY Mellon Real Return.
And of course if you can find a smaller company with prospects, the wider market sentiment is of lesser importance. Africa Airtel is a good example, which is rolling out pay-by-mobile in various African countries, which has almost trebled since I bought in. Defence stocks have also done very well, and while the big players are riding high, there are some interesting smaller defence-related companies, such as SRT Marine, that might have decent prospects. Small companies are obviously risky so always DYOR.
Weirdly I do have some SRT Marine shares! And my best % profit on a share investment is from a African miner. Put off small shares now though after quite a few delistings, unfavourable takeovers and the extra associated admin of tracking it.
I think you have to track them regularly, be ruthless about ditching any that start to sink (easier said than done), and just hope you don't wake up to some adverse company announcement that trashes the price before you can act (for these not to be preceded by some sinking is unusual, hence the importance of quickly culling losers). And keep direct investments in small companies modest enough that the overall worst case risk is still low
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
You sweet innocent child, do you honestly think Trump will honour zero tariffs?
He changes his mind more times than Bonnie Blue is gang banged.
If SCOTUS rules against Trump on tariffs then Trump's mind changing becomes irrelevent.
Its just possible that Trump's latest tariff ranting is because he's heard that the SCOTUS decision is going against him.
Nah, the administration has said if the court strikes down the tariffs, they will simply re-implement them for other reasons, which would take another year to reach the SC again. It is a repeatable process.
In other words they will do what they want, and the court process is a fiction.
He might try but importers and Dems will be going to their local friendly federal judge to get them blocked.
It would likely get very messy very quickly.
Messy is a feature of Trumps "policies" not a problem to the administration.
Messy might help those with inside info grift.
But it doesn't help the economy as a whole.
You think Trump cares about the economy as a whole? Wow!
The wider GOP should as many of their jobs depend on it.
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
Trump can do anything he wants. State governors will be getting arrested as well. Traitors!
Almost as if he can’t be right on one thing and wrong on another thing at the same time.
Can Mr Schofield walk and chew gum?
Another case : Trump demanded that Europe increase defence spending.
Should we increase, decrease or leave defence spending the same?
Simply opposing “for the sake of” is as stupid as Trump.
In this case though, Farage is using it as a wedge governance issue, with resonance for other culture war issues which Reform voters like.
See ? Trump could govern our country better than we do ourselves. It's also a sort of open response to Reform being Trump's party, which has been levelled a lot on social media in the last two days.
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?
It's clearly the latter, because Farage posted on Chagos in his response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland, just two.days ago.
And is posting again today to praise Trump for this post.
“Shockingly, our “brilliant” NATO Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital U.S. Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognize STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"
May last year.
“Today, the United States welcomed the historic agreement between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Mauritius on the future of the British Indian Ocean Territory—specifically, the Chagos Archipelago.”
“President Trump expressed his support for this monumental achievement during his meeting with Prime Minister Starmer at the White House.”
“Following a comprehensive interagency review, the Trump Administration determined that this agreement secures the long-term, stable, and effective operation of the joint U.S.-UK military facility at Diego Garcia.”
“We commend both the United Kingdom and Mauritius for their leadership, vision, and commitment to ensure that Diego Garcia remains fully operational for the duration of this agreement.”
(Rubio)
If you actually watched what was being said at the time, it was fairly obvious that the US thought the Chagos deal was a stupid idea that they were going along with because the UK was insisting on it & the treaties were a hangover from the Biden administration. So long as the security of Diego Garcia was maintained we could do whatever dumb shit we wanted.
Trump has just decompensated to the point where he says what he actually thinks pretty much all the time & is no longer able to maintain any kind of diplomatic front to avoid insulting US allies.
In this case we fully deserve to be insulted franky, but I don’t think the Trump regime’s internal view of this deal has changed one iota. The Biden regime probably thought it was stupid too, they were just capable of keeping that view behind closed doors.
Dear Marge
.......If anyone mentions the word 'Chagos' I mentally put their posts into a compartment marked NERD. So Nerdy and uninteresting in fact that it makes 'Lab Leaks in Wuhan' feel like an Afcon Cup final......
Am I the only one?
Oh, it’s definitely a topic that only real politics nerds are aware of.
Which is exactly why Hermer & his friends in Mauritius (& the Foreign Office?) have been able to ram through a deal that not even the Chagossians themselves want.
But what I don't understand is what difference this will make to any politics that any of us are interested in?
PROBABLY even in this nerd infested pond .......no one will have been there......know or care what the islanders want or see an injustice that gives it a human interest angle. No one wants to nick their mineral rights........
I was in New York during the Falklands crisis and a taxi driver said to me "Tell me what is it about these Islands. As I see it all they've got is 180,000 sheep?"
The Chinese want to send their ocean stripping trawler fleet into the economic zone around the Chagos, for a start.
If you have some interest in the environment, that is worth considering. For a start.
It’s one part of the Pacific that the Chinese fleet hasn’t turned into a desert. Yet.
Another might be the Chagos Islanders themselves. Who will be fucked over by this deal. Again.
Just in: the European Union's response to Trump's 10% tariffs will be "unflinching, united and proportional", Ursula von der Leyen says in Davos.
"The proposed additional tariffs are a mistake, especially between long-standing allies."
Von der Leyen reminds Trump of the EU-US trade deal that the two concluded last year in Scotland, implicitly warning the 10% tariff would blow it up.
"In politics as in business: a deal is a deal. And when friends shake hands, it must mean something."
Von der Leyen then promises a new Arctic package that will trigger a "massive" surge of investment in Greenland to support "the local economy and infrastructure".
"At the heart of this will be the fundamental principle: It is for sovereign people to decide their own future."
"We will not flinch..."
Cue Brass Eye - War....
What's with "proportional"? You don't counter an attack with tit-for-tat, you go in hard with both feet, full, destructive force.
Last night's Russian attacks on Ukraine targeted substations that connect Ukraine's nuclear power plants to the grid. This is pretty risky in terms of the nuclear safety of the plants. Earlier in the war, when similar was happening around the nuclear plant in Zaporizhia, this would have been very big news. World leaders would have spoken out about it. Now, nothing.
One good reason for Europe to step up its support for Ukraine and to help them win is that winning the war would reduce the number of desk-clearing important events that they have to deal with.
The implied nuclear threat needs to be at the absolute top of everyone’s agenda right now, despite all the other chaos that’s going on.
Anyone with a line to Trump needs to know that American Patriot missiles were what prevented a potential global nuclear catastrophe last night.
Europe has a Patriot-equivalent system - SAMP/T - but the interceptor missiles used (Aster 30) are only being produced at the rate of 270-300 per year. The company manufacturing them seems to be very proud of being ahead of schedule on the plan to increase production by 50% in 2026 compared to 2022, which falls well short of what is required.
This is the sort of thing that is so frustrating about Europe at the moment. The potential is there, but the execution is sorely lacking.
It takes time, but I agree there's not enough urgency.
Patriot production is only a bit over 600 pa, with a target of 2000 ... sometime in the future. And that's supplying the whole globe, not just Europe.
And Russia produces approximately up to 100 Iskander missiles annually...
Unimportant until US voters realise that it is they who pay them...
Like many things. Unimportant until they become important. Currently people probably think they don’t pay them in the US, the exporter does. They will have a nasty shock.
@pippacrerar.bsky.social · now BREAKING: Vast new Chinese embassy complex in East London has been approved, despite security concerns.
Decision brings end - for now - to long-running saga. But local residents plan legal challenge amid concerns they could be forced out of homes, potentially delaying project by months or years.
Almost as if he can’t be right on one thing and wrong on another thing at the same time.
Can Mr Schofield walk and chew gum?
Another case : Trump demanded that Europe increase defence spending.
Should we increase, decrease or leave defence spending the same?
Simply opposing “for the sake of” is as stupid as Trump.
In this case though, Farage is using it as a wedge governance issue, with resonance for other culture war issues that Reform voters like.
See ? Trump could govern our country better than we do ourselves. It's also a sort of open response to Reform being Trump's party, which has been levelled a lot on social media in the last two days.
He’s just proving there are worse than Starmer out there.
Scott Bessent is becoming the Comical Ali of the Trump administration. Going out to the world and saying trade deals with the US provide “great certainty”, when Trump is spewing tariffs out the wazoo every day, requires an uncommon ability to suspend disbelief.
@pippacrerar.bsky.social · now BREAKING: Vast new Chinese embassy complex in East London has been approved, despite security concerns.
Decision brings end - for now - to long-running saga. But local residents plan legal challenge amid concerns they could be forced out of homes, potentially delaying project by months or years.
Starmer wanted this approval before his trip to China later this month
Ref 24%(nc), LAB 19%(nc), CON 18%(-2), GRN 17%(+3) LDEM 14%(-2),
Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)
Thank you Ben Pointer for setting the competition. Entry to follow!
YouGov giving Reform 24% twice in a row, following quite a period of low numbers for Reform but these the lowest, really points out the significance of methodology. It's reasonable to assume that their absolutely raw data is not a million miles off the findings of others, and they tweak and treat it in some different way.
If YouGov are right Reform are, despite being top, is really significant trouble. The real onslaught on their policies, personalities, character, associates, the absolute shower of chancers and mediocrities defecting, and whose interests they serve has hardly begun. The Tory recovery has only just begun, and Labour's recovery won't be visible, I suggest till 2027-8.
It's interesting to see the ever impartial Sam Coates quickly trying to influence the debate by calling the Conservative VI fall "noise" having listed the party at the top of his tweet last week and making much of the party's two point gain.
In all fairness, it probably is noise and whether last week's events are the game changer some on here think remains to be seen.
Reform will, assuming the May elections are decent for them, and, given they are starting from such a low base, the numbers of seats gained and councils won might look dramatic and impressive, doubtless get a new boost as both the Conservative and Labour parties assess their losses (or count their dead if you prefer).
I see the Friends of One Nation Conservatism are gathering - to many, "One Nation Conservatism" sits alongside its cousin "Social Democracy" as emblems of decades of "failure". Reviving One Nation for the mid 21st century is probably a good idea but it's far from clear to this observer how you can "sell" the idea to an angry and sceptical electorate who are looking for someone else to a) blame and b) pick up the tab. It's a lot of flowery and laudable rhetoric but in a divided society, how will it be seen as anything other than vaguely aspirational?
If the only response to the political and socio-economic crises of the time is to run back in desperation to the past, we have real problems. We need to think for the future not look for remedies which might have worked in a different and arguably simpler era.
The English local council seats up in May are mainly in London and big cities, not the English shires like the county council elections last year so I expect Reform to gain control of fewer councils and win fewer new councillors than they did last year. They are unlikely to win in Scotland either in the Holyrood election and in Wales in the Senedd election at best are only neck and neck with Plaid not ahead.
Re Wales, I believe Plaid are gaining and Reform may well underperform expectations not least because of the jailed Nathan Gill which has been widely spoken about in Welsh news programmes
Which is not great for Farage as Reform are unlikely to win much in London apart from the very outer suburbs nor in Scotland apart from around Banff and Buchan and Moray and the borders so they need to do well in Wales
The London prospects for them are really Bexley and Havering, maybe Bromley at a push?
Almost as if he can’t be right on one thing and wrong on another thing at the same time.
Can Mr Schofield walk and chew gum?
Another case : Trump demanded that Europe increase defence spending.
Should we increase, decrease or leave defence spending the same?
Simply opposing “for the sake of” is as stupid as Trump.
In this case, Farage is using it as a wedge governance issue, with resonance for other culturw war issues that Reform voters like.
See ? Trump could govern our country better than we do ourselves. It's also a sort of open response to Reform being Trump's party, which has been levelled a lot on social media in the last two days.
Screw the culture war bullshit - a god deal for the Chagos Islanders and the U.K. is the only thing I’m interested in.
Otherwise it’s like the nonsense about Lucy Letby. She may or may not have grounds for an appeal/re-trial. That’s a matter for the legal system - and prompting from the political sphere (of the sensible kind) is perfectly in order. See political interventions in previous complaints of miscarriage of justice.
The way that issues are being turned into culture war footballs is detrimental to the lock step idiots. And to the actual people in the middle. The actual victims of various things.
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
You sweet innocent child, do you honestly think Trump will honour zero tariffs?
He changes his mind more times than Bonnie Blue is gang banged.
If SCOTUS rules against Trump on tariffs then Trump's mind changing becomes irrelevent.
Its just possible that Trump's latest tariff ranting is because he's heard that the SCOTUS decision is going against him.
Nah, the administration has said if the court strikes down the tariffs, they will simply re-implement them for other reasons, which would take another year to reach the SC again. It is a repeatable process.
In other words they will do what they want, and the court process is a fiction.
He might try but importers and Dems will be going to their local friendly federal judge to get them blocked.
It would likely get very messy very quickly.
Messy is a feature of Trumps "policies" not a problem to the administration.
Messy might help those with inside info grift.
But it doesn't help the economy as a whole.
You think Trump cares about the economy as a whole? Wow!
The wider GOP should as many of their jobs depend on it.
The wider GOP should have convicted Trump for January 6th, but they didn't.......they are spectators not participants.
US House Speaker Mike Johnson addressing MPs & Peers in parliament…
“[The UK & US have] always been able to work through our differences calmly as friends, and we will continue to do that. I want to assure you this morning that that is still the case”.
Why are we letting the gaslighting toad speak at all ? He's a pitiful and powerless apologist for Trump's worst excesses.
After the Greenland tariff threats, we should have politely uninvited him.
The 250th USA anniversary and the Westminster Parliament relationship is perhaps seen more as a constitutional thing than a political thing - like the State Visit.
But I hope a chunk of UK political figures chose not to attend.
@pippacrerar.bsky.social · now BREAKING: Vast new Chinese embassy complex in East London has been approved, despite security concerns.
Decision brings end - for now - to long-running saga. But local residents plan legal challenge amid concerns they could be forced out of homes, potentially delaying project by months or years.
Starmer wanted this approval before his trip to China later this month
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?
It's clearly the latter, because Farage posted on Chagos in his response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland, just two.days ago.
And is posting again today to praise Trump for this post.
“Shockingly, our “brilliant” NATO Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital U.S. Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognize STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"
May last year.
“Today, the United States welcomed the historic agreement between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Mauritius on the future of the British Indian Ocean Territory—specifically, the Chagos Archipelago.”
“President Trump expressed his support for this monumental achievement during his meeting with Prime Minister Starmer at the White House.”
“Following a comprehensive interagency review, the Trump Administration determined that this agreement secures the long-term, stable, and effective operation of the joint U.S.-UK military facility at Diego Garcia.”
“We commend both the United Kingdom and Mauritius for their leadership, vision, and commitment to ensure that Diego Garcia remains fully operational for the duration of this agreement.”
(Rubio)
If you actually watched what was being said at the time, it was fairly obvious that the US thought the Chagos deal was a stupid idea that they were going along with because the UK was insisting on it & the treaties were a hangover from the Biden administration. So long as the security of Diego Garcia was maintained we could do whatever dumb shit we wanted.
Trump has just decompensated to the point where he says what he actually thinks pretty much all the time & is no longer able to maintain any kind of diplomatic front to avoid insulting US allies.
In this case we fully deserve to be insulted franky, but I don’t think the Trump regime’s internal view of this deal has changed one iota. The Biden regime probably thought it was stupid too, they were just capable of keeping that view behind closed doors.
Dear Marge
.......If anyone mentions the word 'Chagos' I mentally put their posts into a compartment marked NERD. So Nerdy and uninteresting in fact that it makes 'Lab Leaks in Wuhan' feel like an Afcon Cup final......
Am I the only one?
Oh, it’s definitely a topic that only real politics nerds are aware of.
Which is exactly why Hermer & his friends in Mauritius (& the Foreign Office?) have been able to ram through a deal that not even the Chagossians themselves want.
But what I don't understand is what difference this will make to any politics that any of us are interested in?
PROBABLY even in this nerd infested pond .......no one will have been there......know or care what the islanders want or see an injustice that gives it a human interest angle. No one wants to nick their mineral rights........
I was in New York during the Falklands crisis and a taxi driver said to me "Tell me what is it about these Islands. As I see it all they've got is 180,000 sheep?"
The Chinese want to send their ocean stripping trawler fleet into the economic zone around the Chagos, for a start.
If you have some interest in the environment, that is worth considering. For a start.
It’s one part of the Pacific that the Chinese fleet hasn’t turned into a desert. Yet.
Another might be the Chagos Islanders themselves. Who will be fucked over by this deal. Again.
Indian Ocean, not Pacific.
This is one of the things that makes this seem like irrelevant stuff for politics nerds of course: it’s 1000s of miles away & we are no longer the dominant maritime nation that we once were.
But that’s no reason not to be thoughtful about how we transfer the islands - transferring them to Mauritius & paying the Mauritians for taking them is completely insane: Money we can’t afford to spend, spent on transferring the islands to a ruler that the actual islanders don’t want.
@pippacrerar.bsky.social · now BREAKING: Vast new Chinese embassy complex in East London has been approved, despite security concerns.
Decision brings end - for now - to long-running saga. But local residents plan legal challenge amid concerns they could be forced out of homes, potentially delaying project by months or years.
How long before Trump has another tirade ?
Unfortunately when you’re supposed closest ally screws you then you don’t have much choice but to get into bed with China .
'Wage growth in the UK eased to 4.5% between September and November, official figures suggest, following a sharp slowdown in private sector pay increases.
The pace of pay growth for those employed by private businesses slowed to the lowest rate in five years, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
In contrast, public sector workers saw their wages jump but, the ONS said, this was likely due to pay rises being awarded earlier than in the previous year.
Meanwhile, the number of people on company payrolls continued to fall - down 135,000 in the three months to November - with a particular decline in shops and hospitality....The ONS data showed a stark contrast between public and private pay growth in the three months to November.
Annual average public sector pay growth was 7.9% compared to 3.6% for the private sector.'
The next few days pose huge historic tests for politicians the world over. Do they carry on licking this maniac's arse; or do they turn on him; denounce him; come together, and destroy him in the patriotic interests of their countries and humanity?
Personal finance wise - what are some good ways to 1) protect existing portfolios and 2) speculate on doomsday scenarios
If things progress in that direction, it means higher inflation, higher interest rates, falling stock and bond prices, and a falling $. The assets you'd expect to hold their value or rise would be gold and precious metals - already at record highs in anticipation - and possibly broader commodity markets (except fear of economic contraction could hit oil), as well as index-linked gilts and other inflation-tied bonds. Plus spread betting on these changes, and selling into cash and taking advantage of rising interest rates. You could also look for markets likely to ride the storm, such as China and Vietnam - both good performers last year.
The counter-case is that leaders around the world, from Trump downwards, are desperate to get some growth going and may seek to boost economies by throwing money at them, in anticipation of which markets might remain high despite poor underlying economic worry.
I've done a bit of selling into cash and am generally positioned fairly conservatively already. I already had a decent holding of a gold mining trust and have until recently continued my practice of keeping its cash value the same, which has meant selling slices as the price went up - but have now stopped selling so that its value is above my benchmark. How long gold will defy gravity as Trump continues his rampage through reality, who knows?
Thanks, good summary there. I've tried increasing my cash % but the stock markets keep rising for little obvious reason despite the risks and bring the cash % back down. Worse problems to have I guess. New investments since Trumps re-election have mostly gone to Asia, agree with that approach.
Never been able to bring myself to buy gold for some reason - just doesn't seem like a "real" investment, despite being happy to bet heavily on sports events. Commodities generally makes sense and could consider gold mining rather than gold itself.
At what stage do we need to think about where the investment platforms we use are domiciled and/or owned? Waking up to a Trump tweet saying UK investors funds are frozen until Starmer does x,y or z doesn't seem completely impossible.
Unusually, over recent months gold mining has done better than gold itself. Silver has also done better than gold, and has industrial uses to underpin real value, but is also a lot more volatile.
There are also some very good defensive investments where, for whatever is their management charge, they do much of the work for you - I'm thinking of things like Ruffer, Troy Trojan, Personal Assets, BNY Mellon Real Return.
And of course if you can find a smaller company with prospects, the wider market sentiment is of lesser importance. Africa Airtel is a good example, which is rolling out pay-by-mobile in various African countries, which has almost trebled since I bought in. Defence stocks have also done very well, and while the big players are riding high, there are some interesting smaller defence-related companies, such as SRT Marine, that might have decent prospects. Small companies are obviously risky so always DYOR.
Weirdly I do have some SRT Marine shares! And my best % profit on a share investment is from a African miner. Put off small shares now though after quite a few delistings, unfavourable takeovers and the extra associated admin of tracking it.
I think you have to track them regularly, be ruthless about ditching any that start to sink (easier said than done), and just hope you don't wake up to some adverse company announcement that trashes the price before you can act (for these not to be preceded by some sinking is unusual, hence the importance of quickly culling losers). And keep direct investments in small companies modest enough that the overall worst case risk is still low
Agreed and if you do that it is possible to beat tracker style returns but it requires a level of interest and effort that I don't currently have.
@pippacrerar.bsky.social · now BREAKING: Vast new Chinese embassy complex in East London has been approved, despite security concerns.
Decision brings end - for now - to long-running saga. But local residents plan legal challenge amid concerns they could be forced out of homes, potentially delaying project by months or years.
Starmer wanted this approval before his trip to China later this month
I cannot see this helping his approval ratings
He has 18% positive approval with YouGov (with another 8% undecided) - there really aren't that many people left for him to loose!
Ref 24%(nc), LAB 19%(nc), CON 18%(-2), GRN 17%(+3) LDEM 14%(-2),
Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)
Thank you Ben Pointer for setting the competition. Entry to follow!
YouGov giving Reform 24% twice in a row, following quite a period of low numbers for Reform but these the lowest, really points out the significance of methodology. It's reasonable to assume that their absolutely raw data is not a million miles off the findings of others, and they tweak and treat it in some different way.
If YouGov are right Reform are, despite being top, is really significant trouble. The real onslaught on their policies, personalities, character, associates, the absolute shower of chancers and mediocrities defecting, and whose interests they serve has hardly begun. The Tory recovery has only just begun, and Labour's recovery won't be visible, I suggest till 2027-8.
It's interesting to see the ever impartial Sam Coates quickly trying to influence the debate by calling the Conservative VI fall "noise" having listed the party at the top of his tweet last week and making much of the party's two point gain.
In all fairness, it probably is noise and whether last week's events are the game changer some on here think remains to be seen.
Reform will, assuming the May elections are decent for them, and, given they are starting from such a low base, the numbers of seats gained and councils won might look dramatic and impressive, doubtless get a new boost as both the Conservative and Labour parties assess their losses (or count their dead if you prefer).
I see the Friends of One Nation Conservatism are gathering - to many, "One Nation Conservatism" sits alongside its cousin "Social Democracy" as emblems of decades of "failure". Reviving One Nation for the mid 21st century is probably a good idea but it's far from clear to this observer how you can "sell" the idea to an angry and sceptical electorate who are looking for someone else to a) blame and b) pick up the tab. It's a lot of flowery and laudable rhetoric but in a divided society, how will it be seen as anything other than vaguely aspirational?
If the only response to the political and socio-economic crises of the time is to run back in desperation to the past, we have real problems. We need to think for the future not look for remedies which might have worked in a different and arguably simpler era.
The English local council seats up in May are mainly in London and big cities, not the English shires like the county council elections last year so I expect Reform to gain control of fewer councils and win fewer new councillors than they did last year. They are unlikely to win in Scotland either in the Holyrood election and in Wales in the Senedd election at best are only neck and neck with Plaid not ahead.
Re Wales, I believe Plaid are gaining and Reform may well underperform expectations not least because of the jailed Nathan Gill which has been widely spoken about in Welsh news programmes
Which is not great for Farage as Reform are unlikely to win much in London apart from the very outer suburbs nor in Scotland apart from around Banff and Buchan and Moray and the borders so they need to do well in Wales
The London prospects for them are really Bexley and Havering, maybe Bromley at a push?
Yes, maybe Barking and Dagenham, Sutton and Hillingdon too if they do very well
@pippacrerar.bsky.social · now BREAKING: Vast new Chinese embassy complex in East London has been approved, despite security concerns.
Decision brings end - for now - to long-running saga. But local residents plan legal challenge amid concerns they could be forced out of homes, potentially delaying project by months or years.
Starmer wanted this approval before his trip to China later this month
"The SNP are not legal, decent, honest and truthful. Rather they’ve been found to be illegal, indecent, dishonest and untruthful. Their malignant influence has turned Scotland into a mafia state. They are unfit to be entrusted with something as precious as independence."
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
Trump can do anything he wants. State governors will be getting arrested as well. Traitors!
State governors can also call out the State National Guards, as I said Trump cannot call out the Federal National Guard without Congressional approval. State governors also control the state police, so they certainly won't be telling them to arrest themselves, it would need the FBI
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
Trump can do anything he wants. State governors will be getting arrested as well. Traitors!
State governors can also call out the State National Guards, as I said Trump cannot call out the Federal National Guard without Congressional approval. State governors also control the state police, so they certainly won't be telling them to arrest themselves, it would need the FBI
At times you do seem to be naive
The evidence is that Trump will do whatever Trump wants
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?
It's clearly the latter, because Farage posted on Chagos in his response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland, just two.days ago.
And is posting again today to praise Trump for this post.
“Shockingly, our “brilliant” NATO Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital U.S. Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognize STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"
May last year.
“Today, the United States welcomed the historic agreement between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Mauritius on the future of the British Indian Ocean Territory—specifically, the Chagos Archipelago.”
“President Trump expressed his support for this monumental achievement during his meeting with Prime Minister Starmer at the White House.”
“Following a comprehensive interagency review, the Trump Administration determined that this agreement secures the long-term, stable, and effective operation of the joint U.S.-UK military facility at Diego Garcia.”
“We commend both the United Kingdom and Mauritius for their leadership, vision, and commitment to ensure that Diego Garcia remains fully operational for the duration of this agreement.”
(Rubio)
If you actually watched what was being said at the time, it was fairly obvious that the US thought the Chagos deal was a stupid idea that they were going along with because the UK was insisting on it & the treaties were a hangover from the Biden administration. So long as the security of Diego Garcia was maintained we could do whatever dumb shit we wanted.
Trump has just decompensated to the point where he says what he actually thinks pretty much all the time & is no longer able to maintain any kind of diplomatic front to avoid insulting US allies.
In this case we fully deserve to be insulted franky, but I don’t think the Trump regime’s internal view of this deal has changed one iota. The Biden regime probably thought it was stupid too, they were just capable of keeping that view behind closed doors.
Dear Marge
.......If anyone mentions the word 'Chagos' I mentally put their posts into a compartment marked NERD. So Nerdy and uninteresting in fact that it makes 'Lab Leaks in Wuhan' feel like an Afcon Cup final......
Am I the only one?
Oh, it’s definitely a topic that only real politics nerds are aware of.
Which is exactly why Hermer & his friends in Mauritius (& the Foreign Office?) have been able to ram through a deal that not even the Chagossians themselves want.
But what I don't understand is what difference this will make to any politics that any of us are interested in?
PROBABLY even in this nerd infested pond .......no one will have been there......know or care what the islanders want or see an injustice that gives it a human interest angle. No one wants to nick their mineral rights........
I was in New York during the Falklands crisis and a taxi driver said to me "Tell me what is it about these Islands. As I see it all they've got is 180,000 sheep?"
The Chinese want to send their ocean stripping trawler fleet into the economic zone around the Chagos, for a start.
If you have some interest in the environment, that is worth considering. For a start.
It’s one part of the Pacific that the Chinese fleet hasn’t turned into a desert. Yet.
Another might be the Chagos Islanders themselves. Who will be fucked over by this deal. Again.
Indian Ocean, not Pacific.
This is one of the things that makes this seem like irrelevant stuff for politics nerds of course: it’s 1000s of miles away & we are no longer the dominant maritime nation that we once were.
But that’s no reason not to be thoughtful about how we transfer the islands - transferring them to Mauritius & paying the Mauritians for taking them is completely insane: Money we can’t afford to spend, spent on transferring the islands to a ruler that the actual islanders don’t want.
My mistake
Incidentally, on the Falklands - similar issue with the fishing rights. The Chinese ships have been aggressively trying to fish on the very edge of the zone around the islands. U.K. sovereignty has been used to impose sustainable quotas in those waters - which has led to them being very, very valuable. Both in economic and bio sustainability terms.
On mineral rights, the U.K. use the rights the Falklands and South Georgia gives it, under the Antarctic Treaties, to veto any development on the Antarctic mainland. This has been the settled position of the U.K. government since the 1960s.
This is why, when Argentina invaded, they went after South Georgia as well. They never had a claim on that.
By taking both, Argentina wanted to take the U.K. sector in Antarctica. The Argentine position on Antarctica is full ahead, strip mine the place.
Until now, the US was also a veto on Antarctic development. Hope Don Donny doesn’t find it on a map, eh?
Ref 24%(nc), LAB 19%(nc), CON 18%(-2), GRN 17%(+3) LDEM 14%(-2),
Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)
Very good poll for Starmer I would suggest, Labour overtake the Tories for second and now just 5% behind Reform. Good poll for Polanski too with the Greens up 3%, from the LDs but it seems also from the Tories? The Greens now just 1% behind the Tories with Yougov and clearly ahead of the LDs who are fifth now.
Bad poll for Farage, after the Jenrick and Rosindell defections Reform have not gained any voteshare at all. Awful poll for Kemi, Tories now fallen back behind Labour after losing Jenrick and barely ahead of the Greens. Terrible poll for Davey too with LDs now also rans and behind even the Greens
The Yougov poll gives Reform 257, Labour 113, LDs 81, Tories 64, SNP 47, Greens 45, PC 17, MIN 7, DUP 5.
So a very hung parliament but Farage could become PM if he got Tory and DUP support
This irreversible decision is a disaster for the nation. Starmer is betraying the country.
There is a limit to how many enemies we can afford to make. Given that we are virtually at war with Russia, are being threatened by the US and have generally pissed off the EU with our Brexit shenanigans, maintaining at least a cordial relationship with China is probably not a bad thing.
Hoyle is coming across as too obsequious imo. Johnson is a prime mover in the continuing undermining / destruction of US democracy and the US constitution.
A point should have been made; an opportunity missed.
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
Trump can do anything he wants. State governors will be getting arrested as well. Traitors!
State governors can also call out the State National Guards, as I said Trump cannot call out the Federal National Guard without Congressional approval. State governors also control the state police, so they certainly won't be telling them to arrest themselves, it would need the FBI
At times you do seem to be naive
The evidence is that Trump will do whatever Trump wants
Well he can't, most US police are controlled by state governors, mayors and local sheriffs in the US NOT the President. States also have their own National Guards controlled by state governors and Congress has to approve the President deploying the Federal National Guard.
The FBI is also run by its own director accountable to Congress not just POTUS
Ref 24%(nc), LAB 19%(nc), CON 18%(-2), GRN 17%(+3) LDEM 14%(-2),
Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)
Thank you Ben Pointer for setting the competition. Entry to follow!
YouGov giving Reform 24% twice in a row, following quite a period of low numbers for Reform but these the lowest, really points out the significance of methodology. It's reasonable to assume that their absolutely raw data is not a million miles off the findings of others, and they tweak and treat it in some different way.
If YouGov are right Reform are, despite being top, is really significant trouble. The real onslaught on their policies, personalities, character, associates, the absolute shower of chancers and mediocrities defecting, and whose interests they serve has hardly begun. The Tory recovery has only just begun, and Labour's recovery won't be visible, I suggest till 2027-8.
It's interesting to see the ever impartial Sam Coates quickly trying to influence the debate by calling the Conservative VI fall "noise" having listed the party at the top of his tweet last week and making much of the party's two point gain.
In all fairness, it probably is noise and whether last week's events are the game changer some on here think remains to be seen.
Reform will, assuming the May elections are decent for them, and, given they are starting from such a low base, the numbers of seats gained and councils won might look dramatic and impressive, doubtless get a new boost as both the Conservative and Labour parties assess their losses (or count their dead if you prefer).
I see the Friends of One Nation Conservatism are gathering - to many, "One Nation Conservatism" sits alongside its cousin "Social Democracy" as emblems of decades of "failure". Reviving One Nation for the mid 21st century is probably a good idea but it's far from clear to this observer how you can "sell" the idea to an angry and sceptical electorate who are looking for someone else to a) blame and b) pick up the tab. It's a lot of flowery and laudable rhetoric but in a divided society, how will it be seen as anything other than vaguely aspirational?
If the only response to the political and socio-economic crises of the time is to run back in desperation to the past, we have real problems. We need to think for the future not look for remedies which might have worked in a different and arguably simpler era.
The English local council seats up in May are mainly in London and big cities, not the English shires like the county council elections last year so I expect Reform to gain control of fewer councils and win fewer new councillors than they did last year. They are unlikely to win in Scotland either in the Holyrood election and in Wales in the Senedd election at best are only neck and neck with Plaid not ahead.
Re Wales, I believe Plaid are gaining and Reform may well underperform expectations not least because of the jailed Nathan Gill which has been widely spoken about in Welsh news programmes
Which is not great for Farage as Reform are unlikely to win much in London apart from the very outer suburbs nor in Scotland apart from around Banff and Buchan and Moray and the borders so they need to do well in Wales
The London prospects for them are really Bexley and Havering, maybe Bromley at a push?
Perhaps Barking&Dagenham, maybe Hounslow or Hillingdon to the far west.
The problem Reform have in most boroughs is that their core vote rejects their Londonness, full stop. (It's one of the things that unites their white working class and retired upper middle class demographics.) People who feel that way, feel it intensely, but there aren't many boroughs that are sufficiently outer for it to be a majority. Bromley and Croydon both go as far in as the Crystal Palace park, and by the time you are that close to the centre, anti-London is absurd.
Comments
(This is not financial advice).
"They were not insufficiently right-wing; they were insufficiently competent.”
Then they have to find buyers for the bonds which will be possible for pennies in the pound but then it creates legal issues if businesses actively lose shareholders’ value. It would also badly damage pension funds for Europeans and the general financial business.
What governments can do is to not buy Us gov debt themselves however I’m sure that Trump will get his mates in Saudi etc to step up to the plate and avoid much of a bond strike.
The damage is long term though for the US where people will be at best sceptical about investing in US assets.
So a very hung parliament but Farage could become PM if he got Tory and DUP support
https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
4.474 %
Trump detonating series of bombshells on Truth Social overnight: leaking private messages from President Macron, posting image of Canada and Greenland as part of the US and going all out on PM Starmer and UK by calling the Chagos deal an ‘act of great stupidity’, and opening him up to attacks from opposition MPs long-opposed to the deal.
Been speaking around government this morning to get a sense of what the hell is going on after the PM yesterday sought to reiterate the UK’s position on Greenland while also trying to de-escalate, stressing the strong relationship, dodging the matter of retaliatory tariffs (although not ruling it out) and avoiding any incendiary language adopted by other leaders clearly fed up with Trump.
What’s clear is a sense that Trump is trying to pressure UK by going hostile on Chagos - he clearly links the Chagos deal to Greenland in the post. But what is also clear, is that UK govt is not going to change positon on Greenland, nor it is going to wobble on Chagos and will press on with the agreement with the Mauritian government.
But the lashing out against the UK and Starmer seems to be part of a bigger assault on allies - as Trump reveals private messages with Macron and shares a map of Canada as US territory, which will no doubt explode in Canada when the country wakes up in a few hours.
This is what work and pensions secretary Pat McFadden just said: “What we saw last night... was a series of posts criticising a number of world leaders. That may tell us that the President is frustrated right now. I don't really believe this is about Chagos. I think it's about Greenland and the best way to resolve that is through dialogue with the Danish government and that's what we've said all along.”
Yesterday, the former Danish PM and Danish Foreign minister Lars Rasmussen told me how surprised he’d been by Trump’s public threats on social media over the weekend because he thought Denmark had come to an agreement with Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio that the profound disagreement on Greenland would be negotiated away from social media.
“We agreed that we should move this dialogue from social media and Truth Social...I thought, we have managed not to solve the problem, but to find a pathway forward. It was disrupted, by the statement from the president. And that's a reality of life.”
It’s a reality all leaders dealing with, as Trump’s increasingly erratic behaviour with allies makes the US almost impossible to deal with, though the UK positon is that it must continue to try.
Last night I was told it was “highly unlikely” the PM would attend Davos given that there is no sign of any resolution or big set piece of multi-lateral meeting in resolution of the biggest matters for the UK and EU - Greenland and Ukraine. But am told there will be engagement with the US administration this morning and conversation in Davos between UK and US players.
But Trump turning on Starmer after all the PM’s efforts to build a good relationship, is undoubtedly a blow and raise questions about how else Starmer might have dealt with Trump. For the UK’s part, it managed to negotiate better trade terms during that purple patch. But now, this relationship is clearly under huge strain. I imagine Starmer will ignore it and carry on, his problem is that his opponents will not
@KevinASchofield
Amazing to see all the right-wingers now rallying round Trump over the Chagos Islands.
It's almost like they've forgotten he's threatening to invade a Nato ally.
https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/2013542490951803047
Reminding Johnson that, actually, we are a friend an ally of the US, and that it should be possible to resolve problems without resorting to a full-scale trade war is not a bad idea. If we can get people like him to invest in that approach then there is - just - a chance that this could be defused. Obvs, with a maniac like Trump in the White House nothing is guaranteed but, at least, let's try to engage.
https://x.com/i/status/2013546410516349012
Starmer might be dull but joining that bunch of Trumpian fascist crackpots at their leader's about to invade Greenland would be career defining!
The counter-case is that leaders around the world, from Trump downwards, are desperate to get some growth going and may seek to boost economies by throwing money at them, in anticipation of which markets might remain high despite poor underlying economic worry.
I've done a bit of selling into cash and am generally positioned fairly conservatively already. I already had a decent holding of a gold mining trust and have until recently continued my practice of keeping its cash value the same, which has meant selling slices as the price went up - but have now stopped selling so that its value is above my benchmark. How long gold will defy gravity as Trump continues his rampage through reality, who knows?
Can Mr Schofield walk and chew gum?
Trump has jumped over the shark, jumping over another shark.
Both can be true.
“That we are choosing fair trade over tariffs, partnership over isolation, sustainability over exploitation.
“And that we are serious about diversifying our supply chains.”
von der Leyen: “Right after Davos, I will travel to India.
“We are on the cusp of a historic trade agreement—some call it the “mother of all deals.””
von der Leyen: “Europe will always choose the world, and the world is ready to choose Europe.”
Which is exactly why Hermer & his friends in Mauritius (& the Foreign Office?) have been able to ram through a deal that not even the Chagossians themselves want.
Welsh Tories fire Senedd health spokesman James Evans for speaking to Reform 'about the possibility of defecting'.
Shouldn’t be too difficult for a professional actor to keep up an accent for whatever it is they’re performing or promoting.
But it doesn't help the economy as a whole.
The idea that we can "engage" with him is utterly ridiculous.
He serves one purpose only, and that is to enable Trump.
Inviting him to address Parliament is a nothing more than a demonstration of subservience to a minion.
How low can you go?
Never been able to bring myself to buy gold for some reason - just doesn't seem like a "real" investment, despite being happy to bet heavily on sports events. Commodities generally makes sense and could consider gold mining rather than gold itself.
At what stage do we need to think about where the investment platforms we use are domiciled and/or owned? Waking up to a Trump tweet saying UK investors funds are frozen until Starmer does x,y or z doesn't seem completely impossible.
A straw in the wind, quite possibly.
But (serious tone of voice) what has happened to the tradecraft of political duplicity? If Evans can't organise a clandestine conspiracy properly, surely he's too stupid to be a frontline politician.
Yes, Jenrick, I am looking at you.
"The proposed additional tariffs are a mistake, especially between long-standing allies."
Von der Leyen reminds Trump of the EU-US trade deal that the two concluded last year in Scotland, implicitly warning the 10% tariff would blow it up.
"In politics as in business: a deal is a deal. And when friends shake hands, it must mean something."
Von der Leyen then promises a new Arctic package that will trigger a "massive" surge of investment in Greenland to support "the local economy and infrastructure".
"At the heart of this will be the fundamental principle: It is for sovereign people to decide their own future."
If the vehement UK opposition to the last 48 hours of Trump is made explicitly clear to him…
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We have made the decision to formally close our X social media account. Once a vibrant platform to promote the interests of authors, we feel X is no longer a trusted place for balance, community support, and reliable information.
Recent news about images produced by its AI tool, Grok, raise further concerns, especially in the light of our campaign for an ethical AI industry. So, we have decided to step away.
https://bsky.app/profile/societyofauthors.bsky.social/post/3mctvki6qc32p
One good reason for Europe to step up its support for Ukraine and to help them win is that winning the war would reduce the number of desk-clearing important events that they have to deal with.
Trump thinks we pay them.
https://x.com/mrmbrown/status/2013320703890612287?s=61
Anyone with a line to Trump needs to know that American Patriot missiles were what prevented a potential global nuclear catastrophe last night.
There are also some very good defensive investments where, for whatever is their management charge, they do much of the work for you - I'm thinking of things like Ruffer, Troy Trojan, Personal Assets, BNY Mellon Real Return.
And of course if you can find a smaller company with prospects, the wider market sentiment is of lesser importance. Africa Airtel is a good example, which is rolling out pay-by-mobile in various African countries, which has almost trebled since I bought in. Defence stocks have also done very well, and while the big players are riding high, there are some interesting smaller defence-related companies, such as SRT Marine, that might have decent prospects. Small companies are obviously risky so always DYOR. I also have a spread betting sell position on the Dow as a hedge, which will pay off if everything goes t*ts up. And on Tesla, which made money back last year, but the bit I held onto has so far proved an expensive mistake.
Cue Brass Eye - War....
https://markurban.substack.com/p/trump-is-triggering-too-many-people
And Peter Zeihan's short clip on the utter pointlessness of the US taking over Greenland worth a look too:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFNqCZCDkXA
This is the sort of thing that is so frustrating about Europe at the moment. The potential is there, but the execution is sorely lacking.
PROBABLY even in this nerd infested pond .......no one will have been there......know or care what the islanders want or see an injustice that gives it a human interest angle. No one wants to nick their mineral rights........
I was in New York during the Falklands crisis and a taxi driver said to me "Tell me what is it about these Islands. As I see it all they've got is 180,000 sheep?"
Should we increase, decrease or leave defence spending the same?
Simply opposing “for the sake of” is as stupid as Trump.
See ? Trump could govern our country better than we do ourselves. It's also a sort of open response to Reform being Trump's party, which has been levelled a lot on social media in the last two days.
Starmer approves Chinese Embassy
Assume a judicial review will now happen
If you have some interest in the environment, that is worth considering. For a start.
It’s one part of the Pacific that the Chinese fleet hasn’t turned into a desert. Yet.
Another might be the Chagos Islanders themselves. Who will be fucked over by this deal. Again.
As Jeb knew. "What is the value of a proportional response?". Of course, at the end of the episode he signs of on.....a proportional response.
Patriot production is only a bit over 600 pa, with a target of 2000 ... sometime in the future.
And that's supplying the whole globe, not just Europe.
And Russia produces approximately up to 100 Iskander missiles annually...
Like many things. Unimportant until they become important. Currently people probably think they don’t pay them in the US, the exporter does. They will have a nasty shock.
· now
BREAKING: Vast new Chinese embassy complex in East London has been approved, despite security concerns.
Decision brings end - for now - to long-running saga. But local residents plan legal challenge amid concerns they could be forced out of homes, potentially delaying project by months or years.
Might be a rare case of courts doing good work by preventing rampant incompetence by the PM.
Scott Bessent is becoming the Comical Ali of the Trump administration. Going out to the world and saying trade deals with the US provide “great certainty”, when Trump is spewing tariffs out the wazoo every day, requires an uncommon ability to suspend disbelief.
https://bsky.app/profile/spignal.bsky.social/post/3mctw54kfws2i
I cannot see this helping his approval ratings
Otherwise it’s like the nonsense about Lucy Letby. She may or may not have grounds for an appeal/re-trial. That’s a matter for the legal system - and prompting from the political sphere (of the sensible kind) is perfectly in order. See political interventions in previous complaints of miscarriage of justice.
The way that issues are being turned into culture war footballs is detrimental to the lock step idiots. And to the actual people in the middle. The actual victims of various things.
But I hope a chunk of UK political figures chose not to attend.
This is one of the things that makes this seem like irrelevant stuff for politics nerds of course: it’s 1000s of miles away & we are no longer the dominant maritime nation that we once were.
But that’s no reason not to be thoughtful about how we transfer the islands - transferring them to Mauritius & paying the Mauritians for taking them is completely insane: Money we can’t afford to spend, spent on transferring the islands to a ruler that the actual islanders don’t want.
Unfortunately when you’re supposed closest ally screws you then you don’t have much choice but to get into bed with China .
The pace of pay growth for those employed by private businesses slowed to the lowest rate in five years, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
In contrast, public sector workers saw their wages jump but, the ONS said, this was likely due to pay rises being awarded earlier than in the previous year.
Meanwhile, the number of people on company payrolls continued to fall - down 135,000 in the three months to November - with a particular decline in shops and hospitality....The ONS data showed a stark contrast between public and private pay growth in the three months to November.
Annual average public sector pay growth was 7.9% compared to 3.6% for the private sector.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cddgrg87ly5o
"Academy of Fine Arts Vienna extends offer of admissions to Trump: Don't want to be blamed again."
Masterful from the German @theonion.com
"The SNP are not legal, decent, honest and truthful. Rather they’ve been found to be illegal, indecent, dishonest and untruthful. Their malignant influence has turned Scotland into a mafia state. They are unfit to be entrusted with something as precious as independence."
https://x.com/WingsScotland/status/2013546313896300701
The evidence is that Trump will do whatever Trump wants
Incidentally, on the Falklands - similar issue with the fishing rights. The Chinese ships have been aggressively trying to fish on the very edge of the zone around the islands. U.K. sovereignty has been used to impose sustainable quotas in those waters - which has led to them being very, very valuable. Both in economic and bio sustainability terms.
On mineral rights, the U.K. use the rights the Falklands and South Georgia gives it, under the Antarctic Treaties, to veto any development on the Antarctic mainland. This has been the settled position of the U.K. government since the 1960s.
This is why, when Argentina invaded, they went after South Georgia as well. They never had a claim on that.
By taking both, Argentina wanted to take the U.K. sector in Antarctica. The Argentine position on Antarctica is full ahead, strip mine the place.
Until now, the US was also a veto on Antarctic development. Hope Don Donny doesn’t find it on a map, eh?
Hoyle is coming across as too obsequious imo. Johnson is a prime mover in the continuing undermining / destruction of US democracy and the US constitution.
A point should have been made; an opportunity missed.
Speech: https://www.youtube.com/live/T0OpKqV35jA
The FBI is also run by its own director accountable to Congress not just POTUS
The problem Reform have in most boroughs is that their core vote rejects their Londonness, full stop. (It's one of the things that unites their white working class and retired upper middle class demographics.) People who feel that way, feel it intensely, but there aren't many boroughs that are sufficiently outer for it to be a majority. Bromley and Croydon both go as far in as the Crystal Palace park, and by the time you are that close to the centre, anti-London is absurd.