Bessent compares the consternation about Greenland to Liberation Day. “This is the same kind of hysteria that we heard on April 2. There was a panic. And what I’m urging everyone here to do is sit back, take a deep breath & let things play out.”
Remember: Trump thinks Bessent “soothes the markets,” while he has admitted to disturbing them.
Someone's going to make a great film of this when it's over. Dr Strangelove won't come close
The next few days pose huge historic tests for politicians the world over. Do they carry on licking this maniac's arse; or do they turn on him; denounce him; come together, and destroy him in the patriotic interests of their countries and humanity?
For the competiton, people might want to note that in the 2018 mid-terms (Trump's first term) the Democrats won a net 23 seats. Current polling looks worse for the Republicans - plus the California redistricting on the new map has gone ahead, a likely +5 for the Dems.
I thought that was conditional on the Texas map that got tossed?
Nope. Going ahead...
Did the “District 13 is now racist” challenge get tossed?
Interesting that almost no-one so far thinks that growth or deficit will be better than 2025.
We have all noticed that on debt, which follows directly from deficit though they pretend not to realise it) the government's policy is that it is too high and that the solution is to make it higher. This is unchanged since 2008.
That's the fiscal rule, though; debt should stop getting worse in five years' time.
"Make me prudent, but not yet" as St Augustine almost said.
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?
It's clearly the latter, because Farage posted on Chagos in his response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland, just two.days ago.
And is posting again today to praise Trump for this post.
“Shockingly, our “brilliant” NATO Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital U.S. Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognize STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"
May last year.
“Today, the United States welcomed the historic agreement between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Mauritius on the future of the British Indian Ocean Territory—specifically, the Chagos Archipelago.”
“President Trump expressed his support for this monumental achievement during his meeting with Prime Minister Starmer at the White House.”
“Following a comprehensive interagency review, the Trump Administration determined that this agreement secures the long-term, stable, and effective operation of the joint U.S.-UK military facility at Diego Garcia.”
“We commend both the United Kingdom and Mauritius for their leadership, vision, and commitment to ensure that Diego Garcia remains fully operational for the duration of this agreement.”
(Rubio)
If you actually watched what was being said at the time, it was fairly obvious that the US thought the Chagos deal was a stupid idea that they were going along with because the UK was insisting on it & the treaties were a hangover from the Biden administration. So long as the security of Diego Garcia was maintained we could do whatever dumb shit we wanted.
Trump has just decompensated to the point where he says what he actually thinks pretty much all the time & is no longer able to maintain any kind of diplomatic front to avoid insulting US allies.
In this case we fully deserve to be insulted franky, but I don’t think the Trump regime’s internal view of this deal has changed one iota. The Biden regime probably thought it was stupid too, they were just capable of keeping that view behind closed doors.
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
For the competiton, people might want to note that in the 2018 mid-terms (Trump's first term) the Democrats won a net 23 seats. Current polling looks worse for the Republicans - plus the California redistricting on the new map has gone ahead, a likely +5 for the Dems.
I thought that was conditional on the Texas map that got tossed?
Nope. Going ahead...
Did the “District 13 is now racist” challenge get tossed?
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?
It's clearly the latter, because Farage posted on Chagos in his response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland, just two.days ago.
And is posting again today to praise Trump for this post.
“Shockingly, our “brilliant” NATO Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital U.S. Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognize STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"
May last year.
“Today, the United States welcomed the historic agreement between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Mauritius on the future of the British Indian Ocean Territory—specifically, the Chagos Archipelago.”
“President Trump expressed his support for this monumental achievement during his meeting with Prime Minister Starmer at the White House.”
“Following a comprehensive interagency review, the Trump Administration determined that this agreement secures the long-term, stable, and effective operation of the joint U.S.-UK military facility at Diego Garcia.”
“We commend both the United Kingdom and Mauritius for their leadership, vision, and commitment to ensure that Diego Garcia remains fully operational for the duration of this agreement.”
For the competiton, people might want to note that in the 2018 mid-terms (Trump's first term) the Democrats won a net 23 seats. Current polling looks worse for the Republicans - plus the California redistricting on the new map has gone ahead, a likely +5 for the Dems.
I thought that was conditional on the Texas map that got tossed?
Nope. Going ahead...
Did the “District 13 is now racist” challenge get tossed?
For the competiton, people might want to note that in the 2018 mid-terms (Trump's first term) the Democrats won a net 23 seats. Current polling looks worse for the Republicans - plus the California redistricting on the new map has gone ahead, a likely +5 for the Dems.
I thought that was conditional on the Texas map that got tossed?
Nope. Going ahead...
I thought that SCOTUS had more or less approved that.
1) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? +38 2) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? +2 3) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 54 4) Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 27 5) UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). Conservative, 6 points 6) Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 18% 7) Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 9 8) The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Sir Keir Starmer 9) Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? No 10) UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £177 bn 11) UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 1.4% 12) Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. Brazil
For the competiton, people might want to note that in the 2018 mid-terms (Trump's first term) the Democrats won a net 23 seats. Current polling looks worse for the Republicans - plus the California redistricting on the new map has gone ahead, a likely +5 for the Dems.
I thought that was conditional on the Texas map that got tossed?
Nope. Going ahead...
Did the “District 13 is now racist” challenge get tossed?
The OP cannot be right. Only the GOP gerrymander. That’s what I’ve read here.
Strange, I've never heard that at all, not once, and I read the comments a few times a week. The common position is that the Republicans are escalating the gerrymandering more than the Dems and primarily to blame for the current direction of travel. The next most common position is the batshit whataboutery that has no acceptance of nuance.
The damage to the Spanish train line where 40 people were killed yesterday, looks suspiciously similar to that where a Polish train was also derailed a couple of months ago.
Interest parallels between George III and @realDonaldTrump. Both protectionists on trade, both obsessed with executive control, both sent out officers to harass people and of course both stark raving mad.
For the competiton, people might want to note that in the 2018 mid-terms (Trump's first term) the Democrats won a net 23 seats. Current polling looks worse for the Republicans - plus the California redistricting on the new map has gone ahead, a likely +5 for the Dems.
I thought that was conditional on the Texas map that got tossed?
Nope. Going ahead...
Did the “District 13 is now racist” challenge get tossed?
The OP cannot be right. Only the GOP gerrymander. That’s what I’ve read here.
Strange, I've never heard that at all, not once, and I read the comments a few times a week. The common position is that the Republicans are escalating the gerrymandering more than the Dems and primarily to blame for the current direction of travel. The next most common position is the batshit whataboutery that has no acceptance of nuance.
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Ref 24%(nc), LAB 19%(nc), CON 18%(-2), GRN 17%(+3) LDEM 14%(-2),
Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)
Thank you Ben Pointer for setting the competition. Entry to follow!
YouGov giving Reform 24% twice in a row, following quite a period of low numbers for Reform but these the lowest, really points out the significance of methodology. It's reasonable to assume that their absolutely raw data is not a million miles off the findings of others, and they tweak and treat it in some different way.
If YouGov are right Reform are, despite being top, is really significant trouble. The real onslaught on their policies, personalities, character, associates, the absolute shower of chancers and mediocrities defecting, and whose interests they serve has hardly begun. The Tory recovery has only just begun, and Labour's recovery won't be visible, I suggest till 2027-8.
It's interesting to see the ever impartial Sam Coates quickly trying to influence the debate by calling the Conservative VI fall "noise" having listed the party at the top of his tweet last week and making much of the party's two point gain.
In all fairness, it probably is noise and whether last week's events are the game changer some on here think remains to be seen.
Reform will, assuming the May elections are decent for them, and, given they are starting from such a low base, the numbers of seats gained and councils won might look dramatic and impressive, doubtless get a new boost as both the Conservative and Labour parties assess their losses (or count their dead if you prefer).
I see the Friends of One Nation Conservatism are gathering - to many, "One Nation Conservatism" sits alongside its cousin "Social Democracy" as emblems of decades of "failure". Reviving One Nation for the mid 21st century is probably a good idea but it's far from clear to this observer how you can "sell" the idea to an angry and sceptical electorate who are looking for someone else to a) blame and b) pick up the tab. It's a lot of flowery and laudable rhetoric but in a divided society, how will it be seen as anything other than vaguely aspirational?
If the only response to the political and socio-economic crises of the time is to run back in desperation to the past, we have real problems. We need to think for the future not look for remedies which might have worked in a different and arguably simpler era.
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
The answer to 10 is 3224bn Trumpcoin as after the August invasion of the UK sterling was banned.
For the competiton, people might want to note that in the 2018 mid-terms (Trump's first term) the Democrats won a net 23 seats. Current polling looks worse for the Republicans - plus the California redistricting on the new map has gone ahead, a likely +5 for the Dems.
I thought that was conditional on the Texas map that got tossed?
Nope. Going ahead...
Did the “District 13 is now racist” challenge get tossed?
The OP cannot be right. Only the GOP gerrymander. That’s what I’ve read here.
Strange, I've never heard that at all, not once, and I read the comments a few times a week. The common position is that the Republicans are escalating the gerrymandering more than the Dems and primarily to blame for the current direction of travel. The next most common position is the batshit whataboutery that has no acceptance of nuance.
Taz is occasionally fond of straw men.
I’ve always enjoyed the Wizard of Oz although when one learns of the abuse Judy Garland endured when making it the film become less palatable.
These seem to be working as advertised, how many more missiles can we get heading towards Kyiv and how quickly can we get a serious production line of them up and running?
To enter you simply need to post your answers to the following 12 questions onto the site before the end of January with the hashtag #competition somewhere in the post to help Ben find your entry.
Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:
1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough) 2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia) 3) Let's go with 55 4) 32 5) The Tories by five points 6) 22% 7) 4 8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there) 9) No (likewise) 10) £165 billion 11) -0.5% 12) USA as nobody else will turn up.
Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.
If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.
Q5 is remarkably bold, and an answer that is already wrong, surely?
Reform already have a 14-point lead in an opinion poll. It's quite possible that is the answer to the question if current trends continue and their lead continues to fall, it's unlikely any other party will establish a lead as large during the year.
That Q5 answer could well be decided already.
That was essentially my point, even though I haven't scanned through all the polls to discover what the precise max lead was. If Reform falls back, it's hard to see any other party being 10%-plus ahead of the field starting from the current fragmented state of our politics.
Meanwhile, in other news, there are photos of Northern Lights sightings from across the Isle of Wight yesterday evening, and I'm annoyed that I only saw the alert from the app this morning.
"Donald J. Trump shall serve as inaugural Chairman of the Board of Peace […] The Chairman shall at all times designate a successor […] Replacement of the Chairman may occur only following voluntary resignation or as a result of incapacity […]"
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Good diplomatic reasons for Europeans to try to appeal for calm and work it out behind the scenes with the US.
But just this morning Trump posted pictures of him putting the flag on Greenland, and presenting his conquests of Greenland and Canada to European leaders.
Time to tell him to fcuk right off and stick upwards of 50K troops on Greenland.
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
You sweet innocent child, do you honestly think Trump will honour zero tariffs?
He changes his mind more times than Bonnie Blue is gang banged.
"Donald J. Trump shall serve as inaugural Chairman of the Board of Peace […] The Chairman shall at all times designate a successor […] Replacement of the Chairman may occur only following voluntary resignation or as a result of incapacity […]"
If Reform wins the election, we may come under a sort of "soft occupation." Except that Trump and his acolytes are directly invested in British culture wars and social conflicts, so it may not be at arm's length, like Sweden in the 1940's.
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
The last thing we want to do is demonstrate the threat of tariffs can alter UK Government policy. Sadly, the statement this morning makes the Chagos deal even more likely to go through.
We left the EU partly because some people didn't want foreign influence over our affairs. The same applies here, but turbocharged because we've actually been threatened by the US.
So what does Keith do this morning? Yesterday's presser was "Trump is a reasonable man and they remain our strong ally"
Then Trump told him to go fuck one of his donkeys.
Emotional reactions are bad. So I don't want an angry reaction. But I do want a realist reaction - the political Special Relationship is over, even if we still have one with the military and intelligence communities. For now.
And it is for now. Trump has absolute power in the US. He can simply instruct the military and CIA/DIA to cut us out and if they object they will be replaced with someone who will comply.
So yesterday's "but what about our D5 missiles" chat was largely irrelevant. It doesn't matter that our deterrent requires the US to service our missiles. We can't rely on that any more. Why would Gilead want a vassal having nukes it doesn't control?
I believe there is an EU meeting on Thursday. Brexit or not, we need to be there.
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
Just pull out of the Chagos deal, it was a US request.
And it's not really a massive millstone, since most government revenues increase with inflation, or, because of frozen thresholds, rather more than inflation.
As ever, the massive millstone isn't the size or structure of the debt, or any other technicalities, it's that the government has proved totally incapable of generating sustained economic growth while keeping inflation in check, and in fact implemented policies to make both measures significantly worse.
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
Just pull out of the Chagos deal, it was a US request.
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? +30 Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? +4 Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 55 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 30 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). Reform 10% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 20% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 10 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Keir Starmer Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? No UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £140bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.7% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - Argentina
US House Speaker Mike Johnson addressing MPs & Peers in parliament…
“[The UK & US have] always been able to work through our differences calmly as friends, and we will continue to do that. I want to assure you this morning that that is still the case”.
Interest parallels between George III and @realDonaldTrump. Both protectionists on trade, both obsessed with executive control, both sent out officers to harass people and of course both stark raving mad.
That’s very unfair on George III - the actual problem was the U.K. Parliament being unwilling to devolve power or deal with the representation issue.
The actual “provocations” by British troops in North America were far less than ICE is getting up to for a start.
Ref 24%(nc), LAB 19%(nc), CON 18%(-2), GRN 17%(+3) LDEM 14%(-2),
Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)
Thank you Ben Pointer for setting the competition. Entry to follow!
YouGov giving Reform 24% twice in a row, following quite a period of low numbers for Reform but these the lowest, really points out the significance of methodology. It's reasonable to assume that their absolutely raw data is not a million miles off the findings of others, and they tweak and treat it in some different way.
If YouGov are right Reform are, despite being top, is really significant trouble. The real onslaught on their policies, personalities, character, associates, the absolute shower of chancers and mediocrities defecting, and whose interests they serve has hardly begun. The Tory recovery has only just begun, and Labour's recovery won't be visible, I suggest till 2027-8.
It's interesting to see the ever impartial Sam Coates quickly trying to influence the debate by calling the Conservative VI fall "noise" having listed the party at the top of his tweet last week and making much of the party's two point gain.
In all fairness, it probably is noise and whether last week's events are the game changer some on here think remains to be seen.
Reform will, assuming the May elections are decent for them, and, given they are starting from such a low base, the numbers of seats gained and councils won might look dramatic and impressive, doubtless get a new boost as both the Conservative and Labour parties assess their losses (or count their dead if you prefer).
I see the Friends of One Nation Conservatism are gathering - to many, "One Nation Conservatism" sits alongside its cousin "Social Democracy" as emblems of decades of "failure". Reviving One Nation for the mid 21st century is probably a good idea but it's far from clear to this observer how you can "sell" the idea to an angry and sceptical electorate who are looking for someone else to a) blame and b) pick up the tab. It's a lot of flowery and laudable rhetoric but in a divided society, how will it be seen as anything other than vaguely aspirational?
If the only response to the political and socio-economic crises of the time is to run back in desperation to the past, we have real problems. We need to think for the future not look for remedies which might have worked in a different and arguably simpler era.
The English local council seats up in May are mainly in London and big cities, not the English shires like the county council elections last year so I expect Reform to gain control of fewer councils and win fewer new councillors than they did last year. They are unlikely to win in Scotland either in the Holyrood election and in Wales in the Senedd election at best are only neck and neck with Plaid not ahead.
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
Just pull out of the Chagos deal, it was a US request.
Didn’t it come from some UN ‘court’ originally?
It is a US defence base the UK is paying for. Apparently and for sure historically in exchange for a discount on trident.
If the US is no longer an ally, and indeed a potential adversary, then just leave the island alone and let the US and/or Chinese deal with the locals without us involved at all.
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?
It's clearly the latter, because Farage posted on Chagos in his response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland, just two.days ago.
And is posting again today to praise Trump for this post.
“Shockingly, our “brilliant” NATO Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital U.S. Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognize STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"
May last year.
“Today, the United States welcomed the historic agreement between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Mauritius on the future of the British Indian Ocean Territory—specifically, the Chagos Archipelago.”
“President Trump expressed his support for this monumental achievement during his meeting with Prime Minister Starmer at the White House.”
“Following a comprehensive interagency review, the Trump Administration determined that this agreement secures the long-term, stable, and effective operation of the joint U.S.-UK military facility at Diego Garcia.”
“We commend both the United Kingdom and Mauritius for their leadership, vision, and commitment to ensure that Diego Garcia remains fully operational for the duration of this agreement.”
(Rubio)
If you actually watched what was being said at the time, it was fairly obvious that the US thought the Chagos deal was a stupid idea that they were going along with because the UK was insisting on it & the treaties were a hangover from the Biden administration. So long as the security of Diego Garcia was maintained we could do whatever dumb shit we wanted.
Trump has just decompensated to the point where he says what he actually thinks pretty much all the time & is no longer able to maintain any kind of diplomatic front to avoid insulting US allies.
In this case we fully deserve to be insulted franky, but I don’t think the Trump regime’s internal view of this deal has changed one iota. The Biden regime probably thought it was stupid too, they were just capable of keeping that view behind closed doors.
Dear Marge
.......If anyone mentions the word 'Chagos' I mentally put their posts into a compartment marked NERD. So Nerdy and uninteresting in fact that it makes 'Lab Leaks in Wuhan' feel like an Afcon Cup final......
Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:
1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough) 2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia) 3) Let's go with 55 4) 32 5) The Tories by five points 6) 22% 7) 4 8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there) 9) No (likewise) 10) £165 billion 11) -0.5% 12) USA as nobody else will turn up.
Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.
If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.
Q5 is remarkably bold, and an answer that is already wrong, surely?
Reform already have a 14-point lead in an opinion poll. It's quite possible that is the answer to the question if current trends continue and their lead continues to fall, it's unlikely any other party will establish a lead as large during the year.
That Q5 answer could well be decided already.
That was essentially my point, even though I haven't scanned through all the polls to discover what the precise max lead was. If Reform falls back, it's hard to see any other party being 10%-plus ahead of the field starting from the current fragmented state of our politics.
Meanwhile, in other news, there are photos of Northern Lights sightings from across the Isle of Wight yesterday evening, and I'm annoyed that I only saw the alert from the app this morning.
The Northern Lights were awesome last night, coming a lot further South than usual thanks to a solar flare.
So what does Keith do this morning? Yesterday's presser was "Trump is a reasonable man and they remain our strong ally"
Then Trump told him to go fuck one of his donkeys.
Emotional reactions are bad. So I don't want an angry reaction. But I do want a realist reaction - the political Special Relationship is over, even if we still have one with the military and intelligence communities. For now.
And it is for now. Trump has absolute power in the US. He can simply instruct the military and CIA/DIA to cut us out and if they object they will be replaced with someone who will comply.
So yesterday's "but what about our D5 missiles" chat was largely irrelevant. It doesn't matter that our deterrent requires the US to service our missiles. We can't rely on that any more. Why would Gilead want a vassal having nukes it doesn't control?
I believe there is an EU meeting on Thursday. Brexit or not, we need to be there.
The EU has also replaced a lot of the Russian gas with gas from the US. Complicates things.
The so called Special relationship was always us dancing to the US’s tune. Trump is just a little bit more brazen.
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
Just pull out of the Chagos deal, it was a US request.
Didn’t it come from some UN ‘court’ originally?
It is a US defence base the UK is paying for. Apparently and for sure historically in exchange for a discount on trident.
If the US is no longer an ally, and indeed a potential adversary, then just leave the island alone and let the US and/or Chinese deal with the locals without us involved at all.
I’d do the opposite. Aggressively assert that this is a British place, and tell everyone else (including the Americans) to get lost.
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
If we ever stop butt licking, not much hope there.
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?
It's clearly the latter, because Farage posted on Chagos in his response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland, just two.days ago.
And is posting again today to praise Trump for this post.
“Shockingly, our “brilliant” NATO Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital U.S. Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognize STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"
May last year.
“Today, the United States welcomed the historic agreement between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Mauritius on the future of the British Indian Ocean Territory—specifically, the Chagos Archipelago.”
“President Trump expressed his support for this monumental achievement during his meeting with Prime Minister Starmer at the White House.”
“Following a comprehensive interagency review, the Trump Administration determined that this agreement secures the long-term, stable, and effective operation of the joint U.S.-UK military facility at Diego Garcia.”
“We commend both the United Kingdom and Mauritius for their leadership, vision, and commitment to ensure that Diego Garcia remains fully operational for the duration of this agreement.”
(Rubio)
If you actually watched what was being said at the time, it was fairly obvious that the US thought the Chagos deal was a stupid idea that they were going along with because the UK was insisting on it & the treaties were a hangover from the Biden administration. So long as the security of Diego Garcia was maintained we could do whatever dumb shit we wanted.
Trump has just decompensated to the point where he says what he actually thinks pretty much all the time & is no longer able to maintain any kind of diplomatic front to avoid insulting US allies.
In this case we fully deserve to be insulted franky, but I don’t think the Trump regime’s internal view of this deal has changed one iota. The Biden regime probably thought it was stupid too, they were just capable of keeping that view behind closed doors.
Dear Marge
.......If anyone mentions the word 'Chagos' I mentally put their posts into a compartment marked NERD. So Nerdy and uninteresting in fact that it makes 'Lab Leaks in Wuhan' feel like an Afcon Cup final......
Am I the only one?
Err, if anyone posts at all on pb.com I back 1.01 them being a nerd, on pbposterbetting.nerds.r.us
Interest parallels between George III and @realDonaldTrump. Both protectionists on trade, both obsessed with executive control, both sent out officers to harass people and of course both stark raving mad.
That’s very unfair on George III - the actual problem was the U.K. Parliament being unwilling to devolve power or deal with the representation issue.
The actual “provocations” by British troops in North America were far less than ICE is getting up to for a start.
It’s a completely muddled article. It attacks Badenoch for being policy light and an empty vessel on strong economic idea’s, and attacks centre ground One Nation Toryism to get the crowd cheering
“Absolutely nailed it. I still don't necessarily have faith in Reform, but the one nation Tories celebrating this as an opportunity are the reason I can't bring myself to vote Tory.”
No. The sacking of Jenrick is a very real opportunity for One Nation Conservatism. We just remove Badenoch now and get our party and electability back.
I have spent time on ConHome over the weekend. Without doubt over half the contributors to comments are not Con Members or even Con voters. It’s sometimes like Reform Home, how they are certainly the most cocky, self sure and aggressive ones. It sums up how the right are neatly split and fighting each other, that will be bad for elections.
Without doubt in my mind, the rally round Badenoch over the Jenrick defection is built on the quicksand that ultimately, politically and electorally, you must keep them in tent pissing out, not throw them out. Lady Thatcher sat in cabinets surrounded by One Nation Conservatives, never never never rejoiced at throwing them out, or was celebrated for making them “someone else’s problem now.”
Cleverly is clearly now the choice of Tories who want to win back the One Nation wing
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
Just pull out of the Chagos deal, it was a US request.
Didn’t it come from some UN ‘court’ originally?
It is a US defence base the UK is paying for. Apparently and for sure historically in exchange for a discount on trident.
If the US is no longer an ally, and indeed a potential adversary, then just leave the island alone and let the US and/or Chinese deal with the locals without us involved at all.
I’d do the opposite. Aggressively assert that this is a British place, and tell everyone else (including the Americans) to get lost.
Why? What use is it peacocking in a remote island thousands of miles from home when we are 1% of the worlds population?
Being part of an alliance with the global superpower is one thing, if that is not available any more then we need to think local.
Ok, so in serious business, and in the hope of doing much better than last year where somehow @Benpointer beat me to last place:
1) +2 (I think gerrymandering will make a majority very tough) 2) +1 (take Maine and Ohio and lose Georgia) 3) Let's go with 55 4) 32 5) The Tories by five points 6) 22% 7) 4 8) Keir Starmer (I can't bring myself even to make a silly prediction there) 9) No (likewise) 10) £165 billion 11) -0.5% 12) USA as nobody else will turn up.
Now, I really, really hope I get that wooden spoon as I could do with another one. Useful things, wooden spoons.
If I don't come bottom we're in for one hell of a year.
Q5 is remarkably bold, and an answer that is already wrong, surely?
Reform already have a 14-point lead in an opinion poll. It's quite possible that is the answer to the question if current trends continue and their lead continues to fall, it's unlikely any other party will establish a lead as large during the year.
That Q5 answer could well be decided already.
That was essentially my point, even though I haven't scanned through all the polls to discover what the precise max lead was. If Reform falls back, it's hard to see any other party being 10%-plus ahead of the field starting from the current fragmented state of our politics.
Meanwhile, in other news, there are photos of Northern Lights sightings from across the Isle of Wight yesterday evening, and I'm annoyed that I only saw the alert from the app this morning.
The Northern Lights were awesome last night, coming a lot further South than usual thanks to a solar flare.
So what does Keith do this morning? Yesterday's presser was "Trump is a reasonable man and they remain our strong ally"
Then Trump told him to go fuck one of his donkeys.
Emotional reactions are bad. So I don't want an angry reaction. But I do want a realist reaction - the political Special Relationship is over, even if we still have one with the military and intelligence communities. For now.
And it is for now. Trump has absolute power in the US. He can simply instruct the military and CIA/DIA to cut us out and if they object they will be replaced with someone who will comply.
So yesterday's "but what about our D5 missiles" chat was largely irrelevant. It doesn't matter that our deterrent requires the US to service our missiles. We can't rely on that any more. Why would Gilead want a vassal having nukes it doesn't control?
I believe there is an EU meeting on Thursday. Brexit or not, we need to be there.
The EU has also replaced a lot of the Russian gas with gas from the US. Complicates things.
The so called Special relationship was always us dancing to the US’s tune. Trump is just a little bit more brazen.
Essentially we have always been America's bitch but now America is treating us like its bitch when we are out together in public. We have to decide whether that is something we can put up wth.
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
You sweet innocent child, do you honestly think Trump will honour zero tariffs?
He changes his mind more times than Bonnie Blue is gang banged.
If SCOTUS rules against Trump on tariffs then Trump's mind changing becomes irrelevent.
Its just possible that Trump's latest tariff ranting is because he's heard that the SCOTUS decision is going against him.
Macron official after Trump threatened to impose a 200% tariff: “We have taken note of President Trump’s statements regarding wines and champagnes. As we have consistently stated, tariff threats intended to influence our foreign policy are unacceptable and ineffective.”
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
Just pull out of the Chagos deal, it was a US request.
Didn’t it come from some UN ‘court’ originally?
It is a US defence base the UK is paying for. Apparently and for sure historically in exchange for a discount on trident.
If the US is no longer an ally, and indeed a potential adversary, then just leave the island alone and let the US and/or Chinese deal with the locals without us involved at all.
I’d do the opposite. Aggressively assert that this is a British place, and tell everyone else (including the Americans) to get lost.
Starmer knows that the U.S. has us over a barrel. If the occupations of Greenland and Canada go ahead, as Trump is posting pictures again of this morning, at some point we may have a historic choice between becoming just another essentially annexed state, or fighting back. Everything is looking very different from last time.
The next few days pose huge historic tests for politicians the world over. Do they carry on licking this maniac's arse; or do they turn on him; denounce him; come together, and destroy him in the patriotic interests of their countries and humanity?
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?
It's clearly the latter, because Farage posted on Chagos in his response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland, just two.days ago.
And is posting again today to praise Trump for this post.
“Shockingly, our “brilliant” NATO Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital U.S. Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognize STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"
May last year.
“Today, the United States welcomed the historic agreement between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Mauritius on the future of the British Indian Ocean Territory—specifically, the Chagos Archipelago.”
“President Trump expressed his support for this monumental achievement during his meeting with Prime Minister Starmer at the White House.”
“Following a comprehensive interagency review, the Trump Administration determined that this agreement secures the long-term, stable, and effective operation of the joint U.S.-UK military facility at Diego Garcia.”
“We commend both the United Kingdom and Mauritius for their leadership, vision, and commitment to ensure that Diego Garcia remains fully operational for the duration of this agreement.”
(Rubio)
If you actually watched what was being said at the time, it was fairly obvious that the US thought the Chagos deal was a stupid idea that they were going along with because the UK was insisting on it & the treaties were a hangover from the Biden administration. So long as the security of Diego Garcia was maintained we could do whatever dumb shit we wanted.
Trump has just decompensated to the point where he says what he actually thinks pretty much all the time & is no longer able to maintain any kind of diplomatic front to avoid insulting US allies.
In this case we fully deserve to be insulted franky, but I don’t think the Trump regime’s internal view of this deal has changed one iota. The Biden regime probably thought it was stupid too, they were just capable of keeping that view behind closed doors.
Dear Marge
.......If anyone mentions the word 'Chagos' I mentally put their posts into a compartment marked NERD. So Nerdy and uninteresting in fact that it makes 'Lab Leaks in Wuhan' feel like an Afcon Cup final......
Am I the only one?
Err, if anyone posts at all on pb.com I back 1.01 them being a nerd, on pbposterbetting.nerds.r.us
Ref 24%(nc), LAB 19%(nc), CON 18%(-2), GRN 17%(+3) LDEM 14%(-2),
Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)
Thank you Ben Pointer for setting the competition. Entry to follow!
YouGov giving Reform 24% twice in a row, following quite a period of low numbers for Reform but these the lowest, really points out the significance of methodology. It's reasonable to assume that their absolutely raw data is not a million miles off the findings of others, and they tweak and treat it in some different way.
If YouGov are right Reform are, despite being top, is really significant trouble. The real onslaught on their policies, personalities, character, associates, the absolute shower of chancers and mediocrities defecting, and whose interests they serve has hardly begun. The Tory recovery has only just begun, and Labour's recovery won't be visible, I suggest till 2027-8.
It's interesting to see the ever impartial Sam Coates quickly trying to influence the debate by calling the Conservative VI fall "noise" having listed the party at the top of his tweet last week and making much of the party's two point gain.
In all fairness, it probably is noise and whether last week's events are the game changer some on here think remains to be seen.
Reform will, assuming the May elections are decent for them, and, given they are starting from such a low base, the numbers of seats gained and councils won might look dramatic and impressive, doubtless get a new boost as both the Conservative and Labour parties assess their losses (or count their dead if you prefer).
I see the Friends of One Nation Conservatism are gathering - to many, "One Nation Conservatism" sits alongside its cousin "Social Democracy" as emblems of decades of "failure". Reviving One Nation for the mid 21st century is probably a good idea but it's far from clear to this observer how you can "sell" the idea to an angry and sceptical electorate who are looking for someone else to a) blame and b) pick up the tab. It's a lot of flowery and laudable rhetoric but in a divided society, how will it be seen as anything other than vaguely aspirational?
If the only response to the political and socio-economic crises of the time is to run back in desperation to the past, we have real problems. We need to think for the future not look for remedies which might have worked in a different and arguably simpler era.
The other big question is whether the Greens gain momentum from the locals - which requires a wave of young voters in London to swing lots of previously Labour seats and councils in areas like yours their way. It's not impossible, and could enable them to overtake Labour for top spot on the centre-left in the polls, at least for a while. Conversely lots of "nice tries" and just a handful of seats could easily deflate their balloon.
Bessent compares the consternation about Greenland to Liberation Day. “This is the same kind of hysteria that we heard on April 2. There was a panic. And what I’m urging everyone here to do is sit back, take a deep breath & let things play out.”
Remember: Trump thinks Bessent “soothes the markets,” while he has admitted to disturbing them.
Someone's going to make a great film of this when it's over. Dr Strangelove won't come close
But who will want to watch it - and relive the madness?
Ref 24%(nc), LAB 19%(nc), CON 18%(-2), GRN 17%(+3) LDEM 14%(-2),
Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)
Very good poll for Starmer I would suggest, Labour overtake the Tories for second and now just 5% behind Reform. Good poll for Polanski too with the Greens up 3%, from the LDs but it seems also from the Tories? The Greens now just 1% behind the Tories with Yougov and clearly ahead of the LDs who are fifth now.
Bad poll for Farage, after the Jenrick and Rosindell defections Reform have not gained any voteshare at all. Awful poll for Kemi, Tories now fallen back behind Labour after losing Jenrick and barely ahead of the Greens. Terrible poll for Davey too with LDs now also rans and behind even the Greens
The so called Special relationship was always us dancing to the US’s tune. Trump is just a little bit more brazen.
That's a glib thing to say, but it's not really true, is it?
For example, Britain never sent troops to Vietnam, and the US at the time was grown up enough to accept that as our decision without throwing a tantrum about it - today we are threatened with +10% (rising to +25%) tariffs for deploying a single soldier to the territory of a NATO ally.
Similarly, as is now becoming clear, Britain received a lot from the US in return, particularly in regard to cooperation on nuclear weapons. That's indicative of a mature, mutually beneficial, relationship, rather than one party being subservient to the other. It's clear that Trump desire to change the nature of the relationship to one that is fundamentally different.
The next few days pose huge historic tests for politicians the world over. Do they carry on licking this maniac's arse; or do they turn on him; denounce him; come together, and destroy him in the patriotic interests of their countries and humanity?
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
You sweet innocent child, do you honestly think Trump will honour zero tariffs?
He changes his mind more times than Bonnie Blue is gang banged.
If SCOTUS rules against Trump on tariffs then Trump's mind changing becomes irrelevent.
Its just possible that Trump's latest tariff ranting is because he's heard that the SCOTUS decision is going against him.
Nah, the administration has said if the court strikes down the tariffs, they will simply re-implement them for other reasons, which would take another year to reach the SC again. It is a repeatable process.
In other words they will do what they want, and the court process is a fiction.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a church tells Europe to keep the faith over the US President and “Don’t Panic” over Greenland but acknowledges Trump’s “threats” to allies - US investor tells me that Trump is trying to do a giant “real estate deal” to grow the physical landmass of the US bigger than Canada by acquiring Greenland - a joke, I assume, - too Trump first term adviser and tech titan tells me “Greenland will stay Greenland” and invading it is “on the edge” after private talks with Congressional figures and US business elite here last night. - Extraordinary and surreal
Ref 24%(nc), LAB 19%(nc), CON 18%(-2), GRN 17%(+3) LDEM 14%(-2),
Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)
Thank you Ben Pointer for setting the competition. Entry to follow!
YouGov giving Reform 24% twice in a row, following quite a period of low numbers for Reform but these the lowest, really points out the significance of methodology. It's reasonable to assume that their absolutely raw data is not a million miles off the findings of others, and they tweak and treat it in some different way.
If YouGov are right Reform are, despite being top, is really significant trouble. The real onslaught on their policies, personalities, character, associates, the absolute shower of chancers and mediocrities defecting, and whose interests they serve has hardly begun. The Tory recovery has only just begun, and Labour's recovery won't be visible, I suggest till 2027-8.
It's interesting to see the ever impartial Sam Coates quickly trying to influence the debate by calling the Conservative VI fall "noise" having listed the party at the top of his tweet last week and making much of the party's two point gain.
In all fairness, it probably is noise and whether last week's events are the game changer some on here think remains to be seen.
Reform will, assuming the May elections are decent for them, and, given they are starting from such a low base, the numbers of seats gained and councils won might look dramatic and impressive, doubtless get a new boost as both the Conservative and Labour parties assess their losses (or count their dead if you prefer).
I see the Friends of One Nation Conservatism are gathering - to many, "One Nation Conservatism" sits alongside its cousin "Social Democracy" as emblems of decades of "failure". Reviving One Nation for the mid 21st century is probably a good idea but it's far from clear to this observer how you can "sell" the idea to an angry and sceptical electorate who are looking for someone else to a) blame and b) pick up the tab. It's a lot of flowery and laudable rhetoric but in a divided society, how will it be seen as anything other than vaguely aspirational?
If the only response to the political and socio-economic crises of the time is to run back in desperation to the past, we have real problems. We need to think for the future not look for remedies which might have worked in a different and arguably simpler era.
The English local council seats up in May are mainly in London and big cities, not the English shires like the county council elections last year so I expect Reform to gain control of fewer councils and win fewer new councillors than they did last year. They are unlikely to win in Scotland either in the Holyrood election and in Wales in the Senedd election at best are only neck and neck with Plaid not ahead.
Re Wales, I believe Plaid are gaining and Reform may well underperform expectations not least because of the jailed Nathan Gill which has been widely spoken about in Welsh news programmes
The next few days pose huge historic tests for politicians the world over. Do they carry on licking this maniac's arse; or do they turn on him; denounce him; come together, and destroy him in the patriotic interests of their countries and humanity?
Extraordinary interview with former NATO secretary general @AndersFoghR : tells me Trump’s behaviour makes no sense; he’s behaving like an autocrat & that he is now a threat to world peace…also says the time for flattery is over
Trump previously praised the Chagos deal, now he calls it stupid. Farage has been going on about the Chagos Islands for the last few days, maybe as a distraction from Greenland. This feels like too much of a coincidence. Did Farage get wind of Trump’s changed position? Or did Farage whisper in Trump’s ear and got him to go off on the topic?
It's clearly the latter, because Farage posted on Chagos in his response to deflect attention from Trump's threats to Greenland, just two.days ago.
And is posting again today to praise Trump for this post.
“Shockingly, our “brilliant” NATO Ally, the United Kingdom, is currently planning to give away the Island of Diego Garcia, the site of a vital U.S. Military Base, to Mauritius, and to do so FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER. There is no doubt that China and Russia have noticed this act of total weakness. These are International Powers who only recognize STRENGTH, which is why the United States of America, under my leadership, is now, after only one year, respected like never before. The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"
May last year.
“Today, the United States welcomed the historic agreement between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Mauritius on the future of the British Indian Ocean Territory—specifically, the Chagos Archipelago.”
“President Trump expressed his support for this monumental achievement during his meeting with Prime Minister Starmer at the White House.”
“Following a comprehensive interagency review, the Trump Administration determined that this agreement secures the long-term, stable, and effective operation of the joint U.S.-UK military facility at Diego Garcia.”
“We commend both the United Kingdom and Mauritius for their leadership, vision, and commitment to ensure that Diego Garcia remains fully operational for the duration of this agreement.”
(Rubio)
If you actually watched what was being said at the time, it was fairly obvious that the US thought the Chagos deal was a stupid idea that they were going along with because the UK was insisting on it & the treaties were a hangover from the Biden administration. So long as the security of Diego Garcia was maintained we could do whatever dumb shit we wanted.
Trump has just decompensated to the point where he says what he actually thinks pretty much all the time & is no longer able to maintain any kind of diplomatic front to avoid insulting US allies.
In this case we fully deserve to be insulted franky, but I don’t think the Trump regime’s internal view of this deal has changed one iota. The Biden regime probably thought it was stupid too, they were just capable of keeping that view behind closed doors.
Dear Marge
.......If anyone mentions the word 'Chagos' I mentally put their posts into a compartment marked NERD. So Nerdy and uninteresting in fact that it makes 'Lab Leaks in Wuhan' feel like an Afcon Cup final......
Am I the only one?
Err, if anyone posts at all on pb.com I back 1.01 them being a nerd, on pbposterbetting.nerds.r.us
Bessent compares the consternation about Greenland to Liberation Day. “This is the same kind of hysteria that we heard on April 2. There was a panic. And what I’m urging everyone here to do is sit back, take a deep breath & let things play out.”
Remember: Trump thinks Bessent “soothes the markets,” while he has admitted to disturbing them.
Someone's going to make a great film of this when it's over. Dr Strangelove won't come close
But who will want to watch it - and relive the madness?
The Death of Trump by Ianucci would be a hoot.
I’m referring to an entirely natural event for any CIA goons looking in.
Ref 24%(nc), LAB 19%(nc), CON 18%(-2), GRN 17%(+3) LDEM 14%(-2),
Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)
Thank you Ben Pointer for setting the competition. Entry to follow!
YouGov giving Reform 24% twice in a row, following quite a period of low numbers for Reform but these the lowest, really points out the significance of methodology. It's reasonable to assume that their absolutely raw data is not a million miles off the findings of others, and they tweak and treat it in some different way.
If YouGov are right Reform are, despite being top, is really significant trouble. The real onslaught on their policies, personalities, character, associates, the absolute shower of chancers and mediocrities defecting, and whose interests they serve has hardly begun. The Tory recovery has only just begun, and Labour's recovery won't be visible, I suggest till 2027-8.
It's interesting to see the ever impartial Sam Coates quickly trying to influence the debate by calling the Conservative VI fall "noise" having listed the party at the top of his tweet last week and making much of the party's two point gain.
In all fairness, it probably is noise and whether last week's events are the game changer some on here think remains to be seen.
Reform will, assuming the May elections are decent for them, and, given they are starting from such a low base, the numbers of seats gained and councils won might look dramatic and impressive, doubtless get a new boost as both the Conservative and Labour parties assess their losses (or count their dead if you prefer).
I see the Friends of One Nation Conservatism are gathering - to many, "One Nation Conservatism" sits alongside its cousin "Social Democracy" as emblems of decades of "failure". Reviving One Nation for the mid 21st century is probably a good idea but it's far from clear to this observer how you can "sell" the idea to an angry and sceptical electorate who are looking for someone else to a) blame and b) pick up the tab. It's a lot of flowery and laudable rhetoric but in a divided society, how will it be seen as anything other than vaguely aspirational?
If the only response to the political and socio-economic crises of the time is to run back in desperation to the past, we have real problems. We need to think for the future not look for remedies which might have worked in a different and arguably simpler era.
The English local council seats up in May are mainly in London and big cities, not the English shires like the county council elections last year so I expect Reform to gain control of fewer councils and win fewer new councillors than they did last year. They are unlikely to win in Scotland either in the Holyrood election and in Wales in the Senedd election at best are only neck and neck with Plaid not ahead.
Re Wales, I believe Plaid are gaining and Reform may well underperform expectations not least because of the jailed Nathan Gill which has been widely spoken about in Welsh news programmes
Which is not great for Farage as Reform are unlikely to win much in London apart from the very outer suburbs nor in Scotland apart from around Banff and Buchan and Moray and the borders so they need to do well in Wales
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
You sweet innocent child, do you honestly think Trump will honour zero tariffs?
He changes his mind more times than Bonnie Blue is gang banged.
If SCOTUS rules against Trump on tariffs then Trump's mind changing becomes irrelevent.
Its just possible that Trump's latest tariff ranting is because he's heard that the SCOTUS decision is going against him.
If he thought it was a close decision, he’d have held off this week’s craziness until after it surely?
So does he reason that the court is with him so he can do WTF he wants?
Which is obviously crazy. The calls going into Rubio and Bessent right now from around the world must be mad, and at some point those around him are going to have to tell him to either back down or face the 25th. They’re not all so isolationist as to see countries such as the UK as anything but a friend.
Do we start to announce cancellation of UK involvement in F-35, for example, to get his attention? (F-35 can’t be done by US without UK parts).
US House Speaker Mike Johnson addressing MPs & Peers in parliament…
“[The UK & US have] always been able to work through our differences calmly as friends, and we will continue to do that. I want to assure you this morning that that is still the case”.
Why are we letting the gaslighting toad speak at all ? He's a pitiful and powerless apologist for Trump's worst excesses.
After the Greenland tariff threats, we should have politely uninvited him.
The so called Special relationship was always us dancing to the US’s tune. Trump is just a little bit more brazen.
That's a glib thing to say, but it's not really true, is it?
For example, Britain never sent troops to Vietnam, and the US at the time was grown up enough to accept that as our decision without throwing a tantrum about it - today we are threatened with +10% (rising to +25%) tariffs for deploying a single soldier to the territory of a NATO ally.
Similarly, as is now becoming clear, Britain received a lot from the US in return, particularly in regard to cooperation on nuclear weapons. That's indicative of a mature, mutually beneficial, relationship, rather than one party being subservient to the other. It's clear that Trump desire to change the nature of the relationship to one that is fundamentally different.
The UK only had 10% tariffs on it before the Greenland issue though, which was lower than the tariffs the EU, Switzerland, Canada, NZ, China, Mexico, Brazil, Japan, India, South Africa etc had slapped on them by Trump
Okay. I've confirmed this morning that my pension investment in gold is in gold that is stored in London (presumably at the Bank of England) so that's a relief. At least some of it is relatively safe from Trump.
That 40-odd% of the rest that is in US equities I am not so sure of. Historically they've done well, but I can wave goodbye to them if the balloon goes up.
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
The UK's ability to respond to tariff threats from the US, now it is outside the EU, is minimal. Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Starmer has a great out today, to say he’ll abandon the Chagos deal in exchange for zero US tariffs.
Win-win.
You sweet innocent child, do you honestly think Trump will honour zero tariffs?
He changes his mind more times than Bonnie Blue is gang banged.
If SCOTUS rules against Trump on tariffs then Trump's mind changing becomes irrelevent.
Its just possible that Trump's latest tariff ranting is because he's heard that the SCOTUS decision is going against him.
Nah, the administration has said if the court strikes down the tariffs, they will simply re-implement them for other reasons, which would take another year to reach the SC again. It is a repeatable process.
In other words they will do what they want, and the court process is a fiction.
He might try but importers and Dems will be going to their local friendly federal judge to get them blocked.
Comments
But he’s wrong about Greenland and Europe in general though, which are slightly more serious considerations right now.
1) Turn on Trump
2) ?
3) Trump destroyed
"Make me prudent, but not yet" as St Augustine almost said.
🚨 NEW: Reform’s defection of a “well-known” Labour figure planned for today has been delayed until further notice
[@POLITICOEurope]"
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2013518047097540861
Yes the official forecast is in line with your entry. Most of us think it gets missed, and many of us think it gets missed by a mile.
That most government debt is now index-linked, is a massive millstone around the UK economy.
Trump has just decompensated to the point where he says what he actually thinks pretty much all the time & is no longer able to maintain any kind of diplomatic front to avoid insulting US allies.
In this case we fully deserve to be insulted franky, but I don’t think the Trump regime’s internal view of this deal has changed one iota. The Biden regime probably thought it was stupid too, they were just capable of keeping that view behind closed doors.
The one thing the US has that Europe and other democracies don't is the Executive Order. Trump is able to deploy these at will upsetting the more process-oriented parliaments who need time to discuss and orient. Meanwhile the next salvo of EO's is dispatched while everyone tries to triangulate. Whoever is behind Trump has worked out that, if controlled, Trump can be putting distance between their interests and the responses to the Orders. It's not just military might but also the speed at which decisions can be made.
You could argue to respond to someone that can, at will, get inside your decision loop is to spend more time on having strategic responses. You can see China just responds quickly. Starmer (and Bessant) say don't react. And the EU are stuck in process with their inability to reach consensus due to Hungary and Slovakia.
So sitting outside the EU allows the UK more flexibility to respond or gather responses as they have done with Ukraine.
Defector nerd notes:
Andrew Rosindell is the only MP ever to have mentioned the "uniparty" in the House of Commons:
May we have a debate on the death of Opposition politics and the rise of the uniparty?
https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2024-02-08/debates/DF967E8A-6CD4-4447-80EC-A4A5DFFF9FFE/BusinessOfTheHouse?highlight=uniparty#contribution-C2D0DEF1-3DFF-4932-BDCC-B7CFF0086EDA
I'd forgotten that Nadhim Zahawi was the Minister for Covid Vaccine Deployment. Has there been any blowback in his new party?
[kiss of death for 2026 contest!]
It’s in everyone’s* interest for there to be a handful of seats in it all the time.
*The members and the donors and the lobbyists, but not the American public.
Does anyone have chapter and verse?
2) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? +2
3) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 54
4) Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 27
5) UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). Conservative, 6 points
6) Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 18%
7) Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 9
8) The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Sir Keir Starmer
9) Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? No
10) UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £177 bn
11) UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 1.4%
12) Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. Brazil
#competitiom
Cheers Ben
https://x.com/tendar/status/2013492132892336617
The damage to the Spanish train line where 40 people were killed yesterday, looks suspiciously similar to that where a Polish train was also derailed a couple of months ago.
The Polish one wasn’t an accident.
And only periodically mad.
Q5 hint: Reform already has two 14-point leads in an opinion poll this year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law)
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election)
Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60
Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31
UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14%
Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17%
Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17
The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting
Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes
UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn
UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2%
Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Which rather negates that claimed advantage.
Everything in this story certainly reeks of something.
François Valentin
@Valen10Francois
·
12h
This is frankly hilarious
Ex MAGA "spokesman" for France first says Trump's Norway letter is obviously FAKE NEWS for dumb journalists
And minutes later, when its authenticity is confirmed, finds the letter remarkable
Cultural revolution levels of sycophancy
https://x.com/Valen10Francois/status/2013362128892108903?s=20
In all fairness, it probably is noise and whether last week's events are the game changer some on here think remains to be seen.
Reform will, assuming the May elections are decent for them, and, given they are starting from such a low base, the numbers of seats gained and councils won might look dramatic and impressive, doubtless get a new boost as both the Conservative and Labour parties assess their losses (or count their dead if you prefer).
I see the Friends of One Nation Conservatism are gathering - to many, "One Nation Conservatism" sits alongside its cousin "Social Democracy" as emblems of decades of "failure". Reviving One Nation for the mid 21st century is probably a good idea but it's far from clear to this observer how you can "sell" the idea to an angry and sceptical electorate who are looking for someone else to a) blame and b) pick up the tab. It's a lot of flowery and laudable rhetoric but in a divided society, how will it be seen as anything other than vaguely aspirational?
If the only response to the political and socio-economic crises of the time is to run back in desperation to the past, we have real problems. We need to think for the future not look for remedies which might have worked in a different and arguably simpler era.
https://x.com/warmonitor3/status/2013478412447305822
These seem to be working as advertised, how many more missiles can we get heading towards Kyiv and how quickly can we get a serious production line of them up and running?
Meanwhile, in other news, there are photos of Northern Lights sightings from across the Isle of Wight yesterday evening, and I'm annoyed that I only saw the alert from the app this morning.
"Donald J. Trump shall serve as inaugural Chairman of the Board of Peace […] The Chairman shall at all times designate a successor […] Replacement of the Chairman may occur only following voluntary resignation or as a result of incapacity […]"
A hereditary global monarchy!
https://bsky.app/profile/manuelmueller.foederalist.eu/post/3mctsa5bvvc2f
Many happy returns Lord Thomas of Baker.
Win-win.
He changes his mind more times than Bonnie Blue is gang banged.
We left the EU partly because some people didn't want foreign influence over our affairs. The same applies here, but turbocharged because we've actually been threatened by the US.
Then Trump told him to go fuck one of his donkeys.
Emotional reactions are bad. So I don't want an angry reaction. But I do want a realist reaction - the political Special Relationship is over, even if we still have one with the military and intelligence communities. For now.
And it is for now. Trump has absolute power in the US. He can simply instruct the military and CIA/DIA to cut us out and if they object they will be replaced with someone who will comply.
So yesterday's "but what about our D5 missiles" chat was largely irrelevant. It doesn't matter that our deterrent requires the US to service our missiles. We can't rely on that any more. Why would Gilead want a vassal having nukes it doesn't control?
I believe there is an EU meeting on Thursday. Brexit or not, we need to be there.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/debt-management-report-2025-26/debt-management-report-2025-26-accessible
And it's not really a massive millstone, since most government revenues increase with inflation, or, because of frozen thresholds, rather more than inflation.
As ever, the massive millstone isn't the size or structure of the debt, or any other technicalities, it's that the government has proved totally incapable of generating sustained economic growth while keeping inflation in check, and in fact implemented policies to make both measures significantly worse.
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? +30
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? +4
Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 55
Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 30
UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). Reform 10%
Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 20%
Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 10
The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Keir Starmer
Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? No
UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £140bn
UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.7%
Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - Argentina
US House Speaker Mike Johnson addressing MPs & Peers in parliament…
“[The UK & US have] always been able to work through our differences calmly as friends, and we will continue to do that. I want to assure you this morning that that is still the case”.
The actual “provocations” by British troops in North America were far less than ICE is getting up to for a start.
If the US is no longer an ally, and indeed a potential adversary, then just leave the island alone and let the US and/or Chinese deal with the locals without us involved at all.
.......If anyone mentions the word 'Chagos' I mentally put their posts into a compartment marked NERD. So Nerdy and uninteresting in fact that it makes 'Lab Leaks in Wuhan' feel like an Afcon Cup final......
Am I the only one?
https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2013368815954866462 - as far South as Ukraine, and loads of replies from elsewhere.
The so called Special relationship was always us dancing to the US’s tune. Trump is just a little bit more brazen.
1. 0 (no change)
2. +1
3. 61
4. 41
5. Reform, 14%
6. 16%
7. 8
8. Sir Keir Starmer
9. No
10. £144bn
11. 1.2%
12. Argentina
As expected:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: “Trump said that Greenland is important for the security of the US.
“Crimea is equally important for the security of Russia.”
Being part of an alliance with the global superpower is one thing, if that is not available any more then we need to think local.
12
2
60
45
Reform 9
24
12
Sir Keir "My Dad was a toolmaker" Starmer
No
£140 Bn
2.0%
England.
Finalised now.
Its just possible that Trump's latest tariff ranting is because he's heard that the SCOTUS decision is going against him.
Macron official after Trump threatened to impose a 200% tariff: “We have taken note of President Trump’s statements regarding wines and champagnes. As we have consistently stated, tariff threats intended to influence our foreign policy are unacceptable and ineffective.”
Bad poll for Farage, after the Jenrick and Rosindell defections Reform have not gained any voteshare at all. Awful poll for Kemi, Tories now fallen back behind Labour after losing Jenrick and barely ahead of the Greens. Terrible poll for Davey too with LDs now also rans and behind even the Greens
For example, Britain never sent troops to Vietnam, and the US at the time was grown up enough to accept that as our decision without throwing a tantrum about it - today we are threatened with +10% (rising to +25%) tariffs for deploying a single soldier to the territory of a NATO ally.
Similarly, as is now becoming clear, Britain received a lot from the US in return, particularly in regard to cooperation on nuclear weapons. That's indicative of a mature, mutually beneficial, relationship, rather than one party being subservient to the other. It's clear that Trump desire to change the nature of the relationship to one that is fundamentally different.
https://www.newsletter.samuel-warde.com/p/europe-prepares-to-go-scorched-earth
In other words they will do what they want, and the court process is a fiction.
Barmy Army Travel - Ashes ‘25-’26 https://x.com/thebarmyarmy/status/2013549377294307585
Surely this has to be done once in a lifetime?
🔥 Latest from Davos: for
@BBCNews
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a church tells Europe to keep the faith over the US President and “Don’t Panic” over Greenland but acknowledges Trump’s “threats” to allies
- US investor tells me that Trump is trying to do a giant “real estate deal” to grow the physical landmass of the US bigger than Canada by acquiring Greenland - a joke, I assume,
- too Trump first term adviser and tech titan tells me “Greenland will stay Greenland” and invading it is “on the edge” after private talks with Congressional figures and US business elite here last night.
- Extraordinary and surreal
https://x.com/faisalislam/status/2013553689403777360?s=20
I’d be taken more seriously with a posh accent, says Agatha Christie drama star
Mia McKenna-Bruce on her upcoming role as murderer Jane Andrews
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/01/18/agatha-christie-star-taken-more-seriously-posh-accent/?recomm_id=b211ffc7-f62e-4c61-a637-64a1e5a788a4
Extraordinary interview with former NATO secretary general @AndersFoghR : tells me Trump’s behaviour makes no sense; he’s behaving like an autocrat & that he is now a threat to world peace…also says the time for flattery is over
I’m referring to an entirely natural event for any CIA goons looking in.
So does he reason that the court is with him so he can do WTF he wants?
Which is obviously crazy. The calls going into Rubio and Bessent right now from around the world must be mad, and at some point those around him are going to have to tell him to either back down or face the 25th. They’re not all so isolationist as to see countries such as the UK as anything but a friend.
Do we start to announce cancellation of UK involvement in F-35, for example, to get his attention?
(F-35 can’t be done by US without UK parts).
He's a pitiful and powerless apologist for Trump's worst excesses.
After the Greenland tariff threats, we should have politely uninvited him.
Really !!!!!!
That 40-odd% of the rest that is in US equities I am not so sure of. Historically they've done well, but I can wave goodbye to them if the balloon goes up.
It would likely get very messy very quickly.