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The ego has landed – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,890
edited January 15 in General
The ego has landed – politicalbetting.com

Even before Kemi Badenoch performing a political penectomy on Robert Jenrick I was dubious about the long term wisdom of Robert Jenrick defecting to Reform. He’s was the Tory party’s most effective politician in setting the agenda in a way Kemi Badenoch hasn’t been able to do so.

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,668
    edited January 15
    'Even before Kemi Badenoch performed a political penectomy on Robert Jenrick'.

    You can all thank me for the imagery.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,561
    edited January 15
    FPT:

    Well well well. An interesting day.

    I am broadly with those who think that there are quite a few upsides for Badenoch in all this. That is not to say she has had a good day - having a defection from your frontbench is seismic and embarrassing, and it continues to lay bare the faultlines in the British right. But, she’s got rid of her biggest rival while tightening her grip on the leadership. There is now no alternative power base - Cleverley comes the closest, but he has the air of being the reserve option if all else fails, rather than an immediate threat. So Badenoch now has clear power and influence on her party, and most likely more time (hard now to see her going this year, though not impossible) . What she chooses to do with it will be instructive.

    If I were her I’d continue to build an argument on the economy, keep one eye on the ball re the cultural/ECHR/migration stuff but don’t try to outcompete Farage. It won’t work and will drag her down. They’ve got to hope events go their way. Farage imploding would be the best case. The other one, somewhat counter-intuitively, is the immigration issue receding slightly if Mahmood manages to get a bit more of a grip on things - that allows the economy to emerge as the primary issue and it’s one where Labour under Reeves are seen very negatively and Farage as muddled.

    For the British right, I’d say today is a big one because I think it means that the chances of a Tory/Reform pre-election deal or tie-in or reverse takeover are pretty much dead in the water now. That does make a Lab/LD coalition more likely, in my view, but there’s still a lot of road to travel.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,399
    All defections are fun, full of bitter 'good riddances' and 'this helps us actually' declarations of varying sincerity, as well as suspiciously heartfelt declarations of how a person despised weeks or months ago is now a really good chap dontchaknow, and more besides.

    This one is particularly good, just because I cannot immediately recall the drama of being sacked to preempt the announcement of defection, so the detailed analysis is peripheral to the entertainment.

    But it is fair to note Farage plays poorly with others and Jenrick will need to find a way to work with him, even as the Tories losing a well known figure perceived to represent a sizable portion of the party base happy to make nice or bend over for Reform comes with problems, even if Kemi did take decisive action.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,019
    edited January 15
    edit
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,399
    Did you know the UUP were having a leadership election? I sure didn't.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ulster_Unionist_Party_leadership_election

    (Though looks like it will be a coronation apparently - the chap has only been an MLA for about 18 months).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,019
    "Jenrick: Tories broke Britain
    Former frontbencher launches savage attack on Conservatives as he defects to Reform" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/01/15/badenoch-sacks-jenrick-for-plotting-to-defect/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,607
    https://bsky.app/profile/mortenmorland.bsky.social/post/3mcify2dhss2g
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,048
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    'Even before Kemi Badenoch performed a political penectomy on Robert Jenrick'.

    You can all thank me for the imagery.

    I'm finding it hard.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,668
    Jenrick says Farage ‘couldn’t run a five-a-side team’ in leaked audio

    In speech to Tory members last year, Reform’s new MP claims it is ‘not a serious party’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/01/15/robert-jenrick-nigel-farage-reform-defect-conservatives/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,048
    Andy_JS said:

    "Jenrick: Tories broke Britain
    Former frontbencher launches savage attack on Conservatives as he defects to Reform" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/01/15/badenoch-sacks-jenrick-for-plotting-to-defect/

    Errrr....epic self awareness fail.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,399
    Andy_JS said:

    "Jenrick: Tories broke Britain
    Former frontbencher launches savage attack on Conservatives as he defects to Reform" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/01/15/badenoch-sacks-jenrick-for-plotting-to-defect/

    Does he specify which Tories? Given how many are going over to Reform at least some of them must have been among those who broke it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,668
    Craig Guildford must be very grateful to Robert Jenrick today.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,668
    Cambridge aims to woo northern students who worry about fitting in

    The university wants to find out why teenagers from the northeast are reluctant to apply, while the student union has launched a Northern Society

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/cambridge-university-northeast-students-drive-xxf62wrws
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,163
    Traitorous pig-dog.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,399
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Craig Guildford must be very grateful to Robert Jenrick today.

    Indeed, Google's AI summary says he is facing pressure to resign, and as we know how reliable AI is presumably that means he's actually fine.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,607
    Every word of this

    https://x.com/RobDotHutton/status/2011898249125179859?s=20
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,250
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cambridge aims to woo northern students who worry about fitting in

    The university wants to find out why teenagers from the northeast are reluctant to apply, while the student union has launched a Northern Society

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/cambridge-university-northeast-students-drive-xxf62wrws

    Lame
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,329
    Casino_Royale said:

    Traitorous pig-dog.

    Always thought he was a shit.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,157
    This all leads to the return of Liz Truss.

    More MPs follow Jenrick over the next few months. Badenoch's authority evaporates. By-elections are bloodbaths with Tories coming third. Donors threaten to pull funding. She survives a confidence vote in spring but 40%+ vote against her.

    Then the real madness begins. Truss and her allies start pushing the "I was right all along" narrative - pointing to economic data, claiming the mini-budget was just bad timing. She's been banging on about immigration and culture war stuff since leaving office, so she can credibly say she'd stop the Reform bleeding.

    Local elections in May are a disaster. Badenoch quits. Parliamentary party is in full panic mode about extinction. In the rushed leadership contest, Truss becomes the "unity candidate". She’s bold, recognisable, appeals to both traditional Tories and the right wing. Someone steps down so she can get back in the Commons.

    Liz Truss is back to "finish what I started.". Labour collapse and a GE is called…somehow (I need to figure that bit out) and hey presto, Liz is back in Parliament, back in Number 10.

    Get on that train before it leaves the station. You heard it here first.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,157
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cambridge aims to woo northern students who worry about fitting in

    The university wants to find out why teenagers from the northeast are reluctant to apply, while the student union has launched a Northern Society

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/cambridge-university-northeast-students-drive-xxf62wrws

    We had a Northern Society at Trinity Oxford in the 90s.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,668
    edited January 15
    Casino_Royale said:

    Traitorous pig-dog.

    It amused OGH a lot that I managed to work this into a PB header 'I can’t say the word c**t but [Mark Reckless] is a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse.'
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,561
    edited January 15
    DougSeal said:

    This all leads to the return of Liz Truss.

    More MPs follow Jenrick over the next few months. Badenoch's authority evaporates. By-elections are bloodbaths with Tories coming third. Donors threaten to pull funding. She survives a confidence vote in spring but 40%+ vote against her.

    Then the real madness begins. Truss and her allies start pushing the "I was right all along" narrative - pointing to economic data, claiming the mini-budget was just bad timing. She's been banging on about immigration and culture war stuff since leaving office, so she can credibly say she'd stop the Reform bleeding.

    Local elections in May are a disaster. Badenoch quits. Parliamentary party is in full panic mode about extinction. In the rushed leadership contest, Truss becomes the "unity candidate". She’s bold, recognisable, appeals to both traditional Tories and the right wing. Someone steps down so she can get back in the Commons.

    Liz Truss is back to "finish what I started.". Labour collapse and a GE is called…somehow (I need to figure that bit out) and hey presto, Liz is back in Parliament, back in Number 10.

    Get on that train before it leaves the station. You heard it here first.

    I have identified a flaw in your Return of the Truss hypothesis.

    Can you point me to a seat in the country you’d be able to reliably see a generic Tory (let alone La Truss) win right now?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,311
    I haven't got a clue who won or lost this. I'll wait until the polls over the next week before copying everybody else's opinion and present it as my own whilst stroking my chin knowingly. It's not a great plan, but since when did that matter? :):):)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,668
    NEW: Hear the suspect leaker in Parliament has been identified…

    Tories boasts that they had a mole in Jenrick’s camp do not appear to be wide of the mark…

    Junior staffer found and handed the draft of the speech to Badenoch’s office

    Quite the play

    https://x.com/mrharrycole/status/2011901667080561077?s=46
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,157
    numbertwelve said:

    DougSeal said:

    This all leads to the return of Liz Truss.

    More MPs follow Jenrick over the next few months. Badenoch's authority evaporates. By-elections are bloodbaths with Tories coming third. Donors threaten to pull funding. She survives a confidence vote in spring but 40%+ vote against her.

    Then the real madness begins. Truss and her allies start pushing the "I was right all along" narrative - pointing to economic data, claiming the mini-budget was just bad timing. She's been banging on about immigration and culture war stuff since leaving office, so she can credibly say she'd stop the Reform bleeding.

    Local elections in May are a disaster. Badenoch quits. Parliamentary party is in full panic mode about extinction. In the rushed leadership contest, Truss becomes the "unity candidate". She’s bold, recognisable, appeals to both traditional Tories and the right wing. Someone steps down so she can get back in the Commons.

    Liz Truss is back to "finish what I started.". Labour collapse and a GE is called…somehow (I need to figure that bit out) and hey presto, Liz is back in Parliament, back in Number 10.

    Get on that train before it leaves the station. You heard it here first.

    I have identified a flaw in your Return of the Truss hypothesis.

    Can you point me to a seat in the country you’d be able to reliably see a generic Tory (let alone La Truss) win right now?
    But we’re talking about Truss!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,584
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cambridge aims to woo northern students who worry about fitting in

    The university wants to find out why teenagers from the northeast are reluctant to apply, while the student union has launched a Northern Society

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/cambridge-university-northeast-students-drive-xxf62wrws

    I was pretty good academically at 18. But Cambridge never aopealed to this northerner.
    Reasons I didn't apply to Cambridge (or indeed Oxford):
    - it wasn't really made explicit the advantages you might get from going there - 'just get a degree'.
    - it sounded like hard work for no obviously better outcome (see above)
    - having grown up in Manchester, my perception was that Cambridge wasn't really the most exciting of places (compared to eg Manchester, Sheffield, Newcastle, Edinburgh etc)
    - it was expensive
    - I didn't like the way they served the beer
    - it was very flat

    I knew so few genuinely posh people that it didn't even occur to me that people there would be posh and I might not fit in.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,287
    Will Starmer ever say anything more memorable than “Release the sausages”?
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 4,023
    DougSeal said:

    This all leads to the return of Liz Truss.

    More MPs follow Jenrick over the next few months. Badenoch's authority evaporates. By-elections are bloodbaths with Tories coming third. Donors threaten to pull funding. She survives a confidence vote in spring but 40%+ vote against her.

    Then the real madness begins. Truss and her allies start pushing the "I was right all along" narrative - pointing to economic data, claiming the mini-budget was just bad timing. She's been banging on about immigration and culture war stuff since leaving office, so she can credibly say she'd stop the Reform bleeding.

    Local elections in May are a disaster. Badenoch quits. Parliamentary party is in full panic mode about extinction. In the rushed leadership contest, Truss becomes the "unity candidate". She’s bold, recognisable, appeals to both traditional Tories and the right wing. Someone steps down so she can get back in the Commons.

    Liz Truss is back to "finish what I started.". Labour collapse and a GE is called…somehow (I need to figure that bit out) and hey presto, Liz is back in Parliament, back in Number 10.

    Get on that train before it leaves the station. You heard it here first.

    I absolutely love this theory and believe this outcome would add greatly to the gaiety of the nation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,399
    edited January 15
    DougSeal said:

    You heard it here first.

    I hope I don't hear it again.

    One slight wrinkle. I know it is only a thought exercise, but the Conservative Constitution requires someone be an MP to stand for leadership of the party, so she cannot be the candidate and then have someone make way, she has to be back in the House first. If Badenoch does quit and Truss somehow emerged as the potential saviour, save your money on Truss as next Leader, as someone else would have to follow until she got back to Parliament (or a series of acting leaders I suppose).
    DougSeal said:

    numbertwelve said:

    DougSeal said:

    This alln. You heard it here first.

    I have identified a flaw in your Return of the Truss hypothesis.

    Can you point me to a seat in the country you’d be able to reliably see a generic Tory (let alone La Truss) win right now?
    But we’re talking about Truss!
    We don't want to be!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,399
    I thought it particularly interesting that the Chair of the local association was uncompromising on Jenrick. You'd probably hope the Chair is among the more tribally loyal of your members, but I doubt that is always the case and it might have been the locals adored Jenrick and would immediately jump ship too.

    "He resigned because he wanted to go further on immigration, but come on. It's like driving a car into a wall, getting out and blaming the passenger. He's been part of this and he's trying to blame everybody else but take responsibility himself."
    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/robert-jenrick-reform-defection-torn-apart-newark-tory-association-chair
  • eekeek Posts: 32,287
    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cambridge aims to woo northern students who worry about fitting in

    The university wants to find out why teenagers from the northeast are reluctant to apply, while the student union has launched a Northern Society

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/cambridge-university-northeast-students-drive-xxf62wrws

    I was pretty good academically at 18. But Cambridge never aopealed to this northerner.
    Reasons I didn't apply to Cambridge (or indeed Oxford):
    - it wasn't really made explicit the advantages you might get from going there - 'just get a degree'.
    - it sounded like hard work for no obviously better outcome (see above)
    - having grown up in Manchester, my perception was that Cambridge wasn't really the most exciting of places (compared to eg Manchester, Sheffield, Newcastle, Edinburgh etc)
    - it was expensive
    - I didn't like the way they served the beer
    - it was very flat

    I knew so few genuinely posh people that it didn't even occur to me that people there would be posh and I might not fit in.
    If it's anything like Durham the issue won't be a North South divide, it's Working class / first generation student against everyone else.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,561
    edited January 15
    I don’t think it will come as a shock to any of us that Bobby J bears a number of the traits of an opportunist, but there is a particular sense of whiplash to seeing him telling us all the Tories are a broken party who destroyed Britain when he was an active member of their frontbench 12 hours ago.

    I do wonder if this might be the moment that Farage’s fortunes start to dwindle…. The Tory Reject narrative is starting to take hold….
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,399
    numbertwelve said:

    I don’t think it will come as a shock to any of us that Bobby J bears a number of the traits of an opportunist, but there is a particular sense of whiplash to seeing him telling us all the Tories are a broken party who destroyed Britain when he was an active member of their frontbench 12 hours ago.

    I do wonder if this might be the moment that Farage’s fortunes start to dwindle…. The Tory Reject narrative is starting to take hold….

    It would be a funny outcome if successfully securing a high profile defection tipped the scales for people who preferred an impression of insurgent new politics.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 16,691
    Quite good from the yellows

    https://bsky.app/profile/libdems.org.uk/post/3mchjhxszlc2b
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,320
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    'Even before Kemi Badenoch performed a political penectomy on Robert Jenrick'.

    You can all thank me for the imagery.

    I find it hard.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,048
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Will Starmer ever say anything more memorable than “Release the sausages”?

    It was an absolute banger.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,048
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    'Even before Kemi Badenoch performed a political penectomy on Robert Jenrick'.

    You can all thank me for the imagery.

    I find it hard.
    I said that first.

    Your repeat is therefore a flop.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,668
    edited January 15
    ydoethur said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Will Starmer ever say anything more memorable than “Release the sausages”?

    It was an absolute banger.
    Talking about banger.

    Did you like/spot my subtle Britpop/Welsh puns in yesterday's thread?

    Don't look back in Bangor and 'Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru, is overseeing something special, he might end up saying in May ‘so I start a revolution from my Bedwellty’'

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/01/14/dont-look-back-in-bangor/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,048
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Will Starmer ever say anything more memorable than “Release the sausages”?

    It was an absolute banger.
    Talking about banger.

    Did you like my subtle Britpop/Welsh puns in yesterday's thread?

    Don't look back in Bangor and 'Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru, is overseeing something special, he might end up saying in May ‘so I start a revolution from my Bedwellty’'

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/01/14/dont-look-back-in-bangor/
    I assure you, I saw no subtle Britpop puns in the thread in question.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,311
    ydoethur said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    'Even before Kemi Badenoch performed a political penectomy on Robert Jenrick'.

    You can all thank me for the imagery.

    I find it hard.
    I said that first.

    Your repeat is therefore a flop.
    An anticlimax in fact

    (narrator: viewcode is going to the shop now)
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,561
    edited January 15
    kle4 said:

    numbertwelve said:

    I don’t think it will come as a shock to any of us that Bobby J bears a number of the traits of an opportunist, but there is a particular sense of whiplash to seeing him telling us all the Tories are a broken party who destroyed Britain when he was an active member of their frontbench 12 hours ago.

    I do wonder if this might be the moment that Farage’s fortunes start to dwindle…. The Tory Reject narrative is starting to take hold….

    It would be a funny outcome if successfully securing a high profile defection tipped the scales for people who preferred an impression of insurgent new politics.
    Badenoch is already playing the “it shows the party has changed, we’re getting rid of all the bad eggs” card. It’s a bold and high risk move and far from enough, but it gives her a tiny pinch of “detoxification” magic dust that most opposition parties wait years to come into possession of.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,048
    Trump is a genius.

    But Mark Allen is hanging in there. Or was, until I typed that.

    (Who did you think I meant? As if I would refer to Mushroom Shaped as a genius.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,048
    numbertwelve said:

    kle4 said:

    numbertwelve said:

    I don’t think it will come as a shock to any of us that Bobby J bears a number of the traits of an opportunist, but there is a particular sense of whiplash to seeing him telling us all the Tories are a broken party who destroyed Britain when he was an active member of their frontbench 12 hours ago.

    I do wonder if this might be the moment that Farage’s fortunes start to dwindle…. The Tory Reject narrative is starting to take hold….

    It would be a funny outcome if successfully securing a high profile defection tipped the scales for people who preferred an impression of insurgent new politics.
    Badenoch is already playing the “it shows the party has changed, we’re getting rid of all the bad eggs” card. It’s a bold and high risk move and far from enough, but it gives her a tiny pinch of “detoxification” magic dust that most opposition parties wait years to come into possession of.
    When Benedict launched the Ordinariate, it was described as 'give us your racists and your homophobes' by mainstream Anglicans.

    Reform is now 'give us your racists, your failures and your crooks.'

    Will it go the way of the Ordinariate, I wonder?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,149
    Trump had lunch today with Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader who won the Nobel Peace Prize he wanted. She’s talked about handing her prize to him (which the Nobel committee don’t recognise), because she wants him to put her in power in Caracas, or at least to force elections. International diplomacy comes down to Trump’s vanity and obsession with the Nobel prize. Trump yesterday was praising Rodríguez, the Chavista still ruling in Venezuela, because he likes authoritarian leaders.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,459
    algarkirk said:

    There is a peculiar shamelessness about being a member of two parties in the same 24 hours, both of which you have, in an entirely justified manner, denounced as broken down frauds, and both of which have denounced you as a dishonourable trickster, and have done all this without the slightest trace of humility.

    I don't really understand how he gets away with it!
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,924
    DougSeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cambridge aims to woo northern students who worry about fitting in

    The university wants to find out why teenagers from the northeast are reluctant to apply, while the student union has launched a Northern Society

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/cambridge-university-northeast-students-drive-xxf62wrws

    We had a Northern Society at Trinity Oxford in the 90s.
    https://youtu.be/gjctkCBK8Nc?si=RAYLad3r8UWPq62I
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,149
    numbertwelve said:

    FPT:

    Well well well. An interesting day.

    I am broadly with those who think that there are quite a few upsides for Badenoch in all this. That is not to say she has had a good day - having a defection from your frontbench is seismic and embarrassing, and it continues to lay bare the faultlines in the British right. But, she’s got rid of her biggest rival while tightening her grip on the leadership. There is now no alternative power base - Cleverley comes the closest, but he has the air of being the reserve option if all else fails, rather than an immediate threat. So Badenoch now has clear power and influence on her party, and most likely more time (hard now to see her going this year, though not impossible) . What she chooses to do with it will be instructive.

    If I were her I’d continue to build an argument on the economy, keep one eye on the ball re the cultural/ECHR/migration stuff but don’t try to outcompete Farage. It won’t work and will drag her down. They’ve got to hope events go their way. Farage imploding would be the best case. The other one, somewhat counter-intuitively, is the immigration issue receding slightly if Mahmood manages to get a bit more of a grip on things - that allows the economy to emerge as the primary issue and it’s one where Labour under Reeves are seen very negatively and Farage as muddled.

    For the British right, I’d say today is a big one because I think it means that the chances of a Tory/Reform pre-election deal or tie-in or reverse takeover are pretty much dead in the water now. That does make a Lab/LD coalition more likely, in my view, but there’s still a lot of road to travel.

    The key non-economic issue perhaps comes down to the increasingly erratic Trump. Badenoch has praised his actions and talked about an ICE for the UK, but will she back away? Farage seems unlikely to desert his first love, so Badenoch could open up clear blue water there.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,561
    algarkirk said:

    There is a peculiar shamelessness about being a member of two parties in the same 24 hours, both of which you have, in an entirely justified manner, denounced as broken down frauds, and both of which have denounced you as a dishonourable trickster, and have done all this without the slightest trace of humility.

    It was a particularly unctuous display, even for him, it has to be said.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,327
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    'Even before Kemi Badenoch performed a political penectomy on Robert Jenrick'.

    You can all thank me for the imagery.

    Using the world’s smallest scalpel.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,327
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cambridge aims to woo northern students who worry about fitting in

    The university wants to find out why teenagers from the northeast are reluctant to apply, while the student union has launched a Northern Society

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/cambridge-university-northeast-students-drive-xxf62wrws

    Is it based in Ely or Peterborough?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,327
    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cambridge aims to woo northern students who worry about fitting in

    The university wants to find out why teenagers from the northeast are reluctant to apply, while the student union has launched a Northern Society

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/cambridge-university-northeast-students-drive-xxf62wrws

    I was pretty good academically at 18. But Cambridge never aopealed to this northerner.
    Reasons I didn't apply to Cambridge (or indeed Oxford):
    - it wasn't really made explicit the advantages you might get from going there - 'just get a degree'.
    - it sounded like hard work for no obviously better outcome (see above)
    - having grown up in Manchester, my perception was that Cambridge wasn't really the most exciting of places (compared to eg Manchester, Sheffield, Newcastle, Edinburgh etc)
    - it was expensive
    - I didn't like the way they served the beer
    - it was very flat

    I knew so few genuinely posh people that it didn't even occur to me that people there would be posh and I might not fit in.
    Was Cambridge or the beer flat?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,399
    Any more info coming out of Iran?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,441
    Ooh .. looking forward to the Tour de France starting in Edinburgh in 2027
     . . .
    and good to see Leon back, even sans libido
     . . .
    Jennrick and Farage I'm sure deserve each other
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,850
    DougSeal said:

    This all leads to the return of Liz Truss.

    More MPs follow Jenrick over the next few months. Badenoch's authority evaporates. By-elections are bloodbaths with Tories coming third. Donors threaten to pull funding. She survives a confidence vote in spring but 40%+ vote against her.

    Then the real madness begins. Truss and her allies start pushing the "I was right all along" narrative - pointing to economic data, claiming the mini-budget was just bad timing. She's been banging on about immigration and culture war stuff since leaving office, so she can credibly say she'd stop the Reform bleeding.

    Local elections in May are a disaster. Badenoch quits. Parliamentary party is in full panic mode about extinction. In the rushed leadership contest, Truss becomes the "unity candidate". She’s bold, recognisable, appeals to both traditional Tories and the right wing. Someone steps down so she can get back in the Commons.

    Liz Truss is back to "finish what I started.". Labour collapse and a GE is called…somehow (I need to figure that bit out) and hey presto, Liz is back in Parliament, back in Number 10.

    Get on that train before it leaves the station. You heard it here first.

    The longest gap between two separate tenures of a Prime Minister was the 23 years, 3 months and 13 days between the two stints that William Cavendish-Bentinck, the 3rd Duke of Portland, spent as PM. I think that for Truss to return as PM requires that she break that record. It will take some time for memories to fade, but she seems to have the obstinate determination to persevere.

    The precedent is in some ways a happy one. The 3rd Duke of Portland's first period was PM lasted only 261 days, but the second period in office lasted rather longer - 2 years 188 days. Although he did die 26 days after leaving office the second time.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,240
    Fairliered said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cambridge aims to woo northern students who worry about fitting in

    The university wants to find out why teenagers from the northeast are reluctant to apply, while the student union has launched a Northern Society

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/cambridge-university-northeast-students-drive-xxf62wrws

    Is it based in Ely or Peterborough?
    Girton.

    (Which, whatever some would have you believe, is a real place.)
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,149
    kle4 said:

    Any more info coming out of Iran?

    Well, Trump’s support amounted to nothing.

    But, good news, Machado has confirmed she gave her Nobel medal to Trump!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,774
    bondegezou said:

    Trump had lunch today with Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader who won the Nobel Peace Prize he wanted. She’s talked about handing her prize to him (which the Nobel committee don’t recognise), because she wants him to put her in power in Caracas, or at least to force elections. International diplomacy comes down to Trump’s vanity and obsession with the Nobel prize. Trump yesterday was praising Rodríguez, the Chavista still ruling in Venezuela, because he likes authoritarian leaders.

    Trump might be impressed by Rodriguez but neither voters nor oil companies are.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,584
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cambridge aims to woo northern students who worry about fitting in

    The university wants to find out why teenagers from the northeast are reluctant to apply, while the student union has launched a Northern Society

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/cambridge-university-northeast-students-drive-xxf62wrws

    There is certainly a big north/south divide at Oxbridge and the northerners are a pretty small minority. This was true when I was at Cambridge in the 1990s (coming from Scotland and hence in the northerner camp) and is equally true for my daughter now at Oxford (coming from London and therefore a southerner). I always thought the divide was state vs private but it seems that now the biggest divide is based on geography - my daughter went to state schools just like I did but feels at home at Oxford in a way I never did at Cambridge 30 years ago. I think a big part of that is down to the fact that about half the people at her College seem to be from London.
    It's not like anyone is out to make you feel unwelcome, it's just that the predominant culture of these places is quite alien if you're not from London or the home counties. It's a hard problem to fix.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,298
    Have we noted that today began something which might endure longer than Jenrick or the Reform party. Misha Glenny chaired 'In Our Time' for the first time, following Lord Bragg's 27 years - a hard seat to fill.

    The subject was Mill's 'On Liberty' and it was well up to form. He asked the right questions and let the experts have a good go at it. I think he will be excellent. A good thing on a day otherwise full of political dark arts.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,168
    bondegezou said:

    kle4 said:

    Any more info coming out of Iran?

    Well, Trump’s support amounted to nothing.

    But, good news, Machado has confirmed she gave her Nobel medal to Trump!
    I wonder if she's given the million pounds as well?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,584
    Stuartinromford said:

    Fairliered said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cambridge aims to woo northern students who worry about fitting in

    The university wants to find out why teenagers from the northeast are reluctant to apply, while the student union has launched a Northern Society

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/cambridge-university-northeast-students-drive-xxf62wrws

    Is it based in Ely or Peterborough?
    Girton.

    (Which, whatever some would have you believe, is a real place.)
    Maybe because it is itself outside Cambridge or because of its history as a pioneering women's college but Girton has always positioned itself as a welcoming place for outsiders.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,561
    edited January 15
    bondegezou said:

    numbertwelve said:

    FPT:

    Well well well. An interesting day.

    I am broadly with those who think that there are quite a few upsides for Badenoch in all this. That is not to say she has had a good day - having a defection from your frontbench is seismic and embarrassing, and it continues to lay bare the faultlines in the British right. But, she’s got rid of her biggest rival while tightening her grip on the leadership. There is now no alternative power base - Cleverley comes the closest, but he has the air of being the reserve option if all else fails, rather than an immediate threat. So Badenoch now has clear power and influence on her party, and most likely more time (hard now to see her going this year, though not impossible) . What she chooses to do with it will be instructive.

    If I were her I’d continue to build an argument on the economy, keep one eye on the ball re the cultural/ECHR/migration stuff but don’t try to outcompete Farage. It won’t work and will drag her down. They’ve got to hope events go their way. Farage imploding would be the best case. The other one, somewhat counter-intuitively, is the immigration issue receding slightly if Mahmood manages to get a bit more of a grip on things - that allows the economy to emerge as the primary issue and it’s one where Labour under Reeves are seen very negatively and Farage as muddled.

    For the British right, I’d say today is a big one because I think it means that the chances of a Tory/Reform pre-election deal or tie-in or reverse takeover are pretty much dead in the water now. That does make a Lab/LD coalition more likely, in my view, but there’s still a lot of road to travel.

    The key non-economic issue perhaps comes down to the increasingly erratic Trump. Badenoch has praised his actions and talked about an ICE for the UK, but will she back away? Farage seems unlikely to desert his first love, so Badenoch could open up clear blue water there.
    The problem for Kemi on that front is she is still at heart quite attracted to those populist right, culture war talking points that built her her profile - she cut her political teeth speaking to them. With the Tories always being an Atlanticist party with links to the GOP, it is hard for her to pivot entirely from some of those things, and if she does want to offer a broad church on the right she will need to continue to throw that sort of red meat about. I hope she is more clearly able to distance herself from the more Trumpian side of things though.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,266
    Fairliered said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cambridge aims to woo northern students who worry about fitting in

    The university wants to find out why teenagers from the northeast are reluctant to apply, while the student union has launched a Northern Society

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/cambridge-university-northeast-students-drive-xxf62wrws

    Is it based in Ely or Peterborough?
    Zoology.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,664
    numbertwelve said:

    kle4 said:

    numbertwelve said:

    I don’t think it will come as a shock to any of us that Bobby J bears a number of the traits of an opportunist, but there is a particular sense of whiplash to seeing him telling us all the Tories are a broken party who destroyed Britain when he was an active member of their frontbench 12 hours ago.

    I do wonder if this might be the moment that Farage’s fortunes start to dwindle…. The Tory Reject narrative is starting to take hold….

    It would be a funny outcome if successfully securing a high profile defection tipped the scales for people who preferred an impression of insurgent new politics.
    Badenoch is already playing the “it shows the party has changed, we’re getting rid of all the bad eggs” card. It’s a bold and high risk move and far from enough, but it gives her a tiny pinch of “detoxification” magic dust that most opposition parties wait years to come into possession of.
    Yes. I agree with you. It can only be good news and great day for the Conservatives the opportunist Snake has gone.

    Jenrick was more open in his racism than Farage, and this was promoting and normalising doubts to the huge success cultural integration has been in the UK, doubts the Conservative Party has never, and will never hold or suggest.

    We owe it to Kemi Badenoch, as the stop Jenrick candidate, to have blocked Jenrick from the leaderships most powerful position. But now as TSE explained in the earlier header, this puts Badenoch’s position in question, now she is is no longer blocking the vile and dangerous Jenrick to the right. The right have other fresh faces, far more loyal to Conservative Party values than Robert the Snake, who can throw hat in ring if the next election result is as bad as looks possible. But if Kemi cannot turn the polling around, the threats to remove her this side of the election are now to the left of her, as she can be replaced by an experienced centerist candidate James, Tom or Mel, whose political values are closer to the traditional UK centre ground so bring wider appeal across all the public, and is the party’s best hope of getting best possible result in 2029, hopefully to move us back over 200 seats.
  • MustaphaMondeoMustaphaMondeo Posts: 461
    edited January 15
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cambridge aims to woo northern students who worry about fitting in

    The university wants to find out why teenagers from the northeast are reluctant to apply, while the student union has launched a Northern Society

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/cambridge-university-northeast-students-drive-xxf62wrws

    I was pretty good academically at 18. But Cambridge never aopealed to this northerner.
    Reasons I didn't apply to Cambridge (or indeed Oxford):
    - it wasn't really made explicit the advantages you might get from going there - 'just get a degree'.
    - it sounded like hard work for no obviously better outcome (see above)
    - having grown up in Manchester, my perception was that Cambridge wasn't really the most exciting of places (compared to eg Manchester, Sheffield, Newcastle, Edinburgh etc)
    - it was expensive
    - I didn't like the way they served the beer
    - it was very flat

    I knew so few genuinely posh people that it didn't even occur to me that people there would be posh and I might not fit in.
    Up to the age of 16/17 I thought I was going to be a doctor and study at the University of Sheffield, then things changed rapidly for me.

    I know people will struggle to believe this but up until university I was very shy and modest, then my teachers thought I should apply to Oxbridge.

    Cambridge was top ranked for the degrees I was thinking about and the visit was good and shattered my preconceptions that I might not fit in.

    I probably suffered with imposter syndrome for about two weeks then I realised I did deserve to be here and the rest is history.
    I remember visiting Cambridge in the early 80s. Young Turks in tailcoats splashing champagne while dancing on top of bus shelters.

    Was that you ?


  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,149
    Lucy Connolly 'warned she may be recalled to prison' over social media posts after race-hate conviction

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/lucy-connolly-prison-recall-social-media-starmer-5HjdQkq_2/
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,168
    bondegezou said:

    Lucy Connolly 'warned she may be recalled to prison' over social media posts after race-hate conviction

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/lucy-connolly-prison-recall-social-media-starmer-5HjdQkq_2/

    If she can't do anymore time she couldn't continue breaking the law. Foul woman.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,850
    bondegezou said:

    kle4 said:

    Any more info coming out of Iran?

    Well, Trump’s support amounted to nothing.

    But, good news, Machado has confirmed she gave her Nobel medal to Trump!
    I understand why people are falling over themselves to do this sort of thing. It seems like the way to curry favour. But the collective effect is really pretty dangerous as it feeds Trump's sense of entitlement and you don't want the guy in charge of the world's strongest military to feel that he should have things just because he wants them.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,029
    I've no time for either of them but does seem like Kemi has won this battle of the media briefings.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,607
    She gave him the medal
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,122
    DougSeal said:

    This all leads to the return of Liz Truss.

    More MPs follow Jenrick over the next few months. Badenoch's authority evaporates. By-elections are bloodbaths with Tories coming third. Donors threaten to pull funding. She survives a confidence vote in spring but 40%+ vote against her.

    Then the real madness begins. Truss and her allies start pushing the "I was right all along" narrative - pointing to economic data, claiming the mini-budget was just bad timing. She's been banging on about immigration and culture war stuff since leaving office, so she can credibly say she'd stop the Reform bleeding.

    Local elections in May are a disaster. Badenoch quits. Parliamentary party is in full panic mode about extinction. In the rushed leadership contest, Truss becomes the "unity candidate". She’s bold, recognisable, appeals to both traditional Tories and the right wing. Someone steps down so she can get back in the Commons.

    Liz Truss is back to "finish what I started.". Labour collapse and a GE is called…somehow (I need to figure that bit out) and hey presto, Liz is back in Parliament, back in Number 10.

    Get on that train before it leaves the station. You heard it here first.

    She isn't an MP though.
    As I'm sure others have noted.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,709
    MustaphaMondeo said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cambridge aims to woo northern students who worry about fitting in

    The university wants to find out why teenagers from the northeast are reluctant to apply, while the student union has launched a Northern Society

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/cambridge-university-northeast-students-drive-xxf62wrws

    I was pretty good academically at 18. But Cambridge never aopealed to this northerner.
    Reasons I didn't apply to Cambridge (or indeed Oxford):
    - it wasn't really made explicit the advantages you might get from going there - 'just get a degree'.
    - it sounded like hard work for no obviously better outcome (see above)
    - having grown up in Manchester, my perception was that Cambridge wasn't really the most exciting of places (compared to eg Manchester, Sheffield, Newcastle, Edinburgh etc)
    - it was expensive
    - I didn't like the way they served the beer
    - it was very flat

    I knew so few genuinely posh people that it didn't even occur to me that people there would be posh and I might not fit in.
    Up to the age of 16/17 I thought I was going to be a doctor and study at the University of Sheffield, then things changed rapidly for me.

    I know people will struggle to believe this but up until university I was very shy and modest, then my teachers thought I should apply to Oxbridge.

    Cambridge was top ranked for the degrees I was thinking about and the visit was good and shattered my preconceptions that I might not fit in.

    I probably suffered with imposter syndrome for about two weeks then I realised I did deserve to be here and the rest is history.
    I remember visiting Cambridge in the early 80s. Young Turks in tailcoats splashing champagne while dancing on top of bus shelters.

    Was that you ?


    If he had gone to the University of Sheffield then the experience of Paternoster Lifts and Derbyshire would have made him civilised.

    Instead, he became a lawyer.

    Thus do civilisations die.

    See everyone tomorrow, if I am still permitted !
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,709
    Foss said:

    Fairliered said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cambridge aims to woo northern students who worry about fitting in

    The university wants to find out why teenagers from the northeast are reluctant to apply, while the student union has launched a Northern Society

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/cambridge-university-northeast-students-drive-xxf62wrws

    Is it based in Ely or Peterborough?
    Zoology.
    They need to open a campus is Coldstream.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,144
    algarkirk said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    ...

    moonshine said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    wooliedyed said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.

    Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.

    Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.

    It's a tough gig she's got.
    Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities
    They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
    We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
    IF Reform were to collapse - possible given the track record of previous Farage vehicles* - and the left is split between various equal entities, you could have a Tory majority similar to what Starmer achieved in 2024.

    *I wasn't thinking small planes, but...
    They dont even have to collapse, the Ref Con tipping points are pretty sharp once the Cons are even slightly ahead. On electionmaps fwiw this far out, with Lab 20, LD 12, G14 then

    Ref 30 Con 20 - Ref 337 seats, Con 51
    Ref 28 Con 22 - Ref 291, Con 88
    Ref 26 Con 24 - Ref 223, Con 145
    Ref 25 Con 25 - Ref 173, Con 201
    Ref 24 Con 26 - Ref 141, Con 233
    Ref 22 Con 28 - Ref 100, Con 283
    Ref 20 Con 30 - Ref 66, Con 327
    Ref 17 Con 33 - Ref 39, Con 369


    I can see Reform dropping to 15%. They need to get some serious scrutiny of their programme - but we have three years for all the other parties to rip them to shreds.

    Which they will.
    Those who have a distaste for Reform engage in too much wishful thinking.

    These two defections go quite a long way to allaying my fears that the next government will be too green to get anything useful done. What they desperately need are some absolute barstewards that know Whitehall, have the battle scars of past fights with the civil service, and who can manipulate old and new media.

    They are not there yet but you can start to see the meat going on the bones. Enough that I am signing up to the membership this evening, as a means of getting some policy ideas in there, because it makes me think they are indeed now very likely to for the next government.
    I struggle to have much fellow feeling with Tories who have a 'distaste for Reform'. We are dealing with a digital ID peddling, treacherous territory relinquishing, China fellating Government with its foot on the accelerator of every cause of our country's now accute decline. Their lack of competence and political organisation is their only redeeming feature. Against that, people who sneer at the vulgarity of Reform and desparately want the Tories to go back to the halcyon days of Osborne and Cameron are just fundamentally unserious. Part of the problem.
    This argument would be fine if a few things were in place for Reform:

    A consistent policy platform without trying to mix two or more incompatible goals
    A few top tables of top talent
    A really good record in local government
    A clear and truthful line on spending, borrowing, taxing and debt
    A commitment to the rule of law both nationally and internationally
    A distancing from Trump and Trumpism
    A distancing from cranks peddling anti-vax, burning migrants and removal of indefinite leave to remain from my doctor and some friends
    A distancing from the sort of careless people who carelessly miscalculate and end up owing HMRC £5,000,000.

    Labour, Tories, LDs have little to commend them, but they are better than Reform.
    Labour, Tories and LDs have none of the first four between them, unfortunately.

    The bottom four are however a uniquely Reform toxic waste.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,367
    Watching PMQs yesterday, I noticed Jenrick looking quite shifty while the rest of the Tories were guffawing at one of Kemi’s jokes. It struck me then he might be about to go.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,122
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Will Starmer ever say anything more memorable than “Release the sausages”?

    It was an absolute banger.
    Talking about banger.

    Did you like/spot my subtle Britpop/Welsh puns in yesterday's thread?

    Don't look back in Bangor and 'Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru, is overseeing something special, he might end up saying in May ‘so I start a revolution from my Bedwellty’'

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/01/14/dont-look-back-in-bangor/
    24/7 Wrexham, drugs and rock 'n roll with you.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,470
    Badenoch has had a very good day today. She has shat out a nasty turd.

    That always feels better.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,163
    I went to Bristol, and absolutely loved it.

    I have no regrets.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,367
    isam said:

    Watching PMQs yesterday, I noticed Jenrick looking quite shifty while the rest of the Tories were guffawing at one of Kemi’s jokes. It struck me then he might be about to go.

    Badenoch’s question at 17:29 here

    https://www.youtube.com/live/Sc8-VawZtTo?si=yXZsRQ-et72t5z3H
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,019
    edited January 15
    The dream ticket running the UK in 2029: Nigel Farage and Robert Jenrick. 😊
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,664
    edited January 15
    isam said:

    Watching PMQs yesterday, I noticed Jenrick looking quite shifty while the rest of the Tories were guffawing at one of Kemi’s jokes. It struck me then he might be about to go.

    The whips need you. They had no inkling, couldn’t act earlier?

    He’s been taking copious notes in policy and strategy awaydays and shadowcab meetings for weeks and months.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,019
    edited January 15
    Never let it be said that the anoraks who constantly post opinion polls and polling averages are wasting everyone's time, because the one and only reason that Jenrick has defected is because the polls showed the Tories very slightly edging ahead of Labour recently. If that hadn't happened and the Tories were still in third place, he wouldn't have defected because he would have been hoping to still take over as Tory leader because of the pressure on the current Tory leader.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 1,013
    Well, after a day in an office with no phone signal or at least not enough for a web page to load, that was a surprise to find on the way home!

    I see I'm not alone in thinking that the loss of Jenrick from the Conservatives to Reform raises the average calibre of both parties.

    I have no love for either the Tories or Mrs Badenoch but I must say she impressed me today by getting her retaliation in first. I think that helps her make a case for being a serious party and will make her team seem more united, and her place more secure. It also means that if she does go at some point the party is less likely to make the mistake of replacing her with a mendacious shit.

    For Reform, adding Jenrick probably does give them a boost too; he will provide them with some decent ministerial experience (relatively) as well as some publicity today. He has been effective in the media over the past year, and is someone who can string a sentence together coherently that the average voter might have heard of. On the other hand he's very much part of the failed past, has no legs to stand on when it comes to talking about immigration, and does rather reinforce the view held by many that Reform are all just second-rate failed Tories.

    I had a feeling already that the Tories were starting to creep back and Reform starting to go off the boil a little; today's events make me think that's likely to continue but I expect that once the dust settles it won't have made much difference.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,955
    edited January 15
    Rupert Lowe and even Tommy Robinson have said some positive things about Jenrick in the past. He was also a regular at the asylum hotel protests and helped put up St George’s flags on lampposts.

    If he ever falls out with Farage there may be a place for him in AdvanceUK. For the moment though Lowe is already saying Farage taking in Jenrick is another example of a soft on immigration ex Tory contaminating Reform

    https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/2011901008222568670?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,399
    HYUFD said:

    Rupert Lowe and even Tommy Robinson have said some positive things about Jenrick in the past. He was also a regular at the asylum hotel protests and helped put up St George’s flags on lampposts.

    If he ever falls out with Farage there may be a place for him in AdvanceUK

    He can tell us about his plans on the Liz Truss show.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,515
    BBC News Mason: "[Jenrick joining] is one hell of a coup'

    LOL

    Farage will go to bed tonight thinking how the fuck did we end up with this 'look at me' social media dead weight albatross

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,399
    When Jenrick reportedly hung up on Kemi when she put the allegation he was defecting to him, how many seconds elapsed before he phoned Farage?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,019
    rottenborough said:

    BBC News Mason: "[Jenrick joining] is one hell of a coup'

    LOL

    Farage will go to bed tonight thinking how the fuck did we end up with this 'look at me' social media dead weight albatross

    In the real world, people are furious about things like fare dodging, something Jenrick highlighted.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,336
    rottenborough said:

    BBC News Mason: "[Jenrick joining] is one hell of a coup'

    LOL

    Farage will go to bed tonight thinking how the fuck did we end up with this 'look at me' social media dead weight albatross

    Mason is a lightweight.
    Verging on clown.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,955
    HYUFD said:

    Rupert Lowe and even Tommy Robinson have said some positive things about Jenrick in the past. He was also a regular at the asylum hotel protests and helped put up St George’s flags on lampposts.

    If he ever falls out with Farage there may be a place for him in AdvanceUK. For the moment though Lowe is already saying Farage taking in Jenrick is another example of a soft on immigration ex Tory contaminating Reform

    https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/2011901008222568670?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    Tommy Robinson has also mocked Jenrick and Reform as part of an establishment club

    https://x.com/trobinsonnewera/status/2011890211706556558?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,149
    Farage, meanwhile, remains a fool who will do anything for money…

    https://metro.co.uk/video/nigel-farage-pays-tribute-ian-watkins-cameo-video-3587359/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,955
    MoonRabbit said:

    numbertwelve said:

    kle4 said:

    numbertwelve said:

    I don’t think it will come as a shock to any of us that Bobby J bears a number of the traits of an opportunist, but there is a particular sense of whiplash to seeing him telling us all the Tories are a broken party who destroyed Britain when he was an active member of their frontbench 12 hours ago.

    I do wonder if this might be the moment that Farage’s fortunes start to dwindle…. The Tory Reject narrative is starting to take hold….

    It would be a funny outcome if successfully securing a high profile defection tipped the scales for people who preferred an impression of insurgent new politics.
    Badenoch is already playing the “it shows the party has changed, we’re getting rid of all the bad eggs” card. It’s a bold and high risk move and far from enough, but it gives her a tiny pinch of “detoxification” magic dust that most opposition parties wait years to come into possession of.
    Yes. I agree with you. It can only be good news and great day for the Conservatives the opportunist Snake has gone.

    Jenrick was more open in his racism than Farage, and this was promoting and normalising doubts to the huge success cultural integration has been in the UK, doubts the Conservative Party has never, and will never hold or suggest.

    We owe it to Kemi Badenoch, as the stop Jenrick candidate, to have blocked Jenrick from the leaderships most powerful position. But now as TSE explained in the earlier header, this puts Badenoch’s position in question, now she is is no longer blocking the vile and dangerous Jenrick to the right. The right have other fresh faces, far more loyal to Conservative Party values than Robert the Snake, who can throw hat in ring if the next election result is as bad as looks possible. But if Kemi cannot turn the polling around, the threats to remove her this side of the election are now to the left of her, as she can be replaced by an experienced centerist candidate James, Tom or Mel, whose political values are closer to the traditional UK centre ground so bring wider appeal across all the public, and is the party’s best hope of getting best possible result in 2029, hopefully to move us back over 200 seats.
    Cleverly is now odds on to be Tory leader if Kemi fails to see the Tories beat Labour in the NEV after the May local elections. Cleverly will be more loyal to Kemi than Jenrick though and if Kemi resigned or lost a VONC Cleverly now likely gets it by coronation
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,975
    I think Labour’s attack lines have become a lot easier after yet another Tory defects.

    I know they’re getting a Labourite next week (although I note Farage said “Labour figure” today, not MP). Who could it be?

    But the idea this is not just another Tory iteration seems harder and harder to counter.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,453
    Find it interesting that Farage has set a hard deadline of May for any further defections. Could be to set a ticking clock, but also may reflect that having too many switchers from the Cons near to the next GE, may not help Reform with ex lab voters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,955
    edited January 15
    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cambridge aims to woo northern students who worry about fitting in

    The university wants to find out why teenagers from the northeast are reluctant to apply, while the student union has launched a Northern Society

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/cambridge-university-northeast-students-drive-xxf62wrws

    I was pretty good academically at 18. But Cambridge never aopealed to this northerner.
    Reasons I didn't apply to Cambridge (or indeed Oxford):
    - it wasn't really made explicit the advantages you might get from going there - 'just get a degree'.
    - it sounded like hard work for no obviously better outcome (see above)
    - having grown up in Manchester, my perception was that Cambridge wasn't really the most exciting of places (compared to eg Manchester, Sheffield, Newcastle, Edinburgh etc)
    - it was expensive
    - I didn't like the way they served the beer
    - it was very flat

    I knew so few genuinely posh people that it didn't even occur to me that people there would be posh and I might not fit in.
    Cambridge is now over 70% state educated students. Exeter, UCL and Oxford are posher and indeed Durham now has more posh private school pupils than either Oxford or Cambridge
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,399
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rupert Lowe and even Tommy Robinson have said some positive things about Jenrick in the past. He was also a regular at the asylum hotel protests and helped put up St George’s flags on lampposts.

    If he ever falls out with Farage there may be a place for him in AdvanceUK. For the moment though Lowe is already saying Farage taking in Jenrick is another example of a soft on immigration ex Tory contaminating Reform

    https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/2011901008222568670?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw

    Tommy Robinson has also mocked Jenrick and Reform as part of an establishment club

    https://x.com/trobinsonnewera/status/2011890211706556558?s=46&t=Gsn9rlDEZH5vXP97Cgifnw
    Compared to that loser they surely are.
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