Don’t look back in Bangor – politicalbetting.com
Don’t look back in Bangor – politicalbetting.com
Holy crap there is a new poll for Wales and it is crazy.It puts Plaid well ahead of Reform with the Greens beating Labour.[Thread] pic.twitter.com/PNUbHTl3eG
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Unlike Labour.
There’s a lot of ruin in a Party
Betting thought - what level of disaster in Wales will actually effect Starmer’s chances of going? A 100% wipeout would, but that’s unlikely. Labour reduced to 5 seats? Hmmm.
Perfect. None of the media intrusion after coming first, nor the “if only…” regrets of coming second, yet I still get a medal.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
They haven't had one yet, so will be interesting to see how HMG responds to that.
[Hat-tip SeanT, once of this Parish.]
I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
The interesting question is what happens after their victory.
If there are any reliable political templates left, Scotland suggests a minority government bargaining its way through the first 4 years, an external international crisis and a coalition UK government, then a landslide followed by a demand for a referendum.
That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
I suspect he'll probably just deny a vote.
That's almost certain to skew anyone's results.
It has an absolutely no way inflammatory headline.
A bigger point is that 73% are none of the previous party voters (Green / Reform / Plaid).
Finally worth saying winning that byelection did wonders for Plaid in making them the clear cut get a change of Government option
For Labour, that [optimism] assumes continuity of a trend for the ruling parties to regain support when a general election comes around. For the Tories, it is the idea that Britain always turns to them as the accountants of last resort, once Labour has run out of money.
Two-party politics assumes stable bases of support on the left and on the right, with swing voters migrating across the centre ground. In today’s fragmented and polarised climate, that trade is thinner than traffic within multiparty blocs: a liberal-progressive one and a conservative-nationalist one. Neither is very stable, but they are efficiently delineated by attitudes to Farage. Either you recoil from the thought of him holding the levers of national power, or you don’t.
Labour and Tory leaders assume a historic claim to primacy within their respective coalitions, but that sense of entitlement doesn’t reflect the balance of real-world opinion. Viewed through the lens of local council races so far this parliament, England’s two-party system looks more like a competition between Reform and the Liberal Democrats.... a more permanent, seismic change is under way might also be underpriced by Labour and Tory leaders who have a lot invested in old patterns reasserting themselves. The scale of it is hard to process, psychologically and psephologically.
The historic Labour -Tory rivalry is also a kind of mutual dependency. They define themselves as ideological antitheses and so they find it hard to admit shared ownership, in many voters’ minds, of a long historical incumbency. They are joint guardians of the Westminster system that has stopped working for a lot of people since around the time of the 2007-08 financial crisis.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jan/14/labour-tories-old-normal-voters
It might now have too many who are very politically interested, and not enough who are more disinterested - but still vote.
Somebody should print off a hard copy of it and Prestyn SKSs face
BBC Sport understands the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) indicated their stance for the 2029-30 series to Cricket Australia (CA) following post-Ashes talks between senior officials.
England lost a one-sided day-night Test at the Gabba in Brisbane by eight wickets last month to go 2-0 down in an Ashes series they would eventually lose 4-1.
Discussions held by the ECB and CA focused on maintaining the Ashes as a blue-ribbon series at a time when the future of Test cricket is under scrutiny.
England and Australia are due to play a one-off day-night Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground in March 2027 to celebrate the 150th anniversary of the first ever Test at the same venue.
Those plans were originally unveiled in August 2024 and it is understood England will get the opportunity to play a warm-up match before the showpiece MCG fixture.
The decision to play that anniversary match as a day-night Test has not been a universally popular one, though, which might prompt a rethink.
BBC Sport has been told that one influential ex-Australia player has directly voiced concerns to Cricket Australia and urged them to consider switching the match to a red-ball game.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cx2y3wqwg9eo
The narrative is Nigel is on course to be the next PM, and that's generally because Reform are polling first in a crowded field, but I'm not sure he's even close.
8/11 is a great price for PC most seats imo
I had a bet a 11/10 late in 2025
Which on the basis that we are a simulation designed to keep the observers happy is exactly what we will get
More likely, they fight each other to a standstill. Though in five/six party FPTP, anything can happen.
We'd probably have Lammy cheerleading for the English paying reparations to the oppressed Celts into the bargain
https://x.com/jacksonhinklle/status/2011197737963065540?s=20
Never thought we would sink to Tenby January
Nor me how Conwy get rid of SKS?
We need him off asap. I wont tell you where I will stick my red Cardiff I see him
They could split the vote in the West Country.
On current form there are three contests going on: Reform v Not Reform; Labour v Not Labour; and Left of Centre v Right of Centre. All three involve very strong convictions among voters.
With the right of centre there are two parties and two possible parties of government.
With the left of centre there are 3 parties (+ ragtag of Jezbollah etc) but only one possible party of government - Labour.
So the outcome is heavily dependent on how much the centre left half of the voters want to form the next government, and if their dislike of Labour outweighs their dislike of Tory/Reform.
In Wales 2026 (but not 2029) it is easy - vote PC. It is a risk free option. In England it remains an open question. There are no centre left risk free options except combining to back Labour.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0lx49z8ly6o
If Trump did it, he'd probably end up trashing the drum kit. Starmer would hit the same drum with a constant, monotonous rhythm.
The SNP have already become a sort of default within the left/liberal bloc for Scotland. The Lib Dems in the Waitrose belt and rural South West. The Greens or other more left wing insurgents could start to take over the cities and hipster enclaves. Then we have Plaid as the left choice in Wales.
Meanwhile the right also starts to separate along regional lines. Reform in the Danelaw, Tories in the leafy shires.
The most vulnerable party in this regional sorting is Labour.
France and Germany and several former communist states have been trending this way for a few years, the French pattern hidden somewhat by their second round elections which force a choice even more than FPTP. It’s an interesting development.
The other thing is that in the kingdom of the blind, the one eyed man is king... If you've only got 30% in the polls, and everyone else has 20% or less, in some ways, you've actually got a more commanding lead than if you've got 45% and your next rival has 35%.
The if the polling remains unchanged, the only thing likely to stuff up the fulfilment Nigel's ambitions to become PM is tactical voting on a massive scale. And that's going to be really hard for Reform's rivals, not least because the polling of the other parties is so changeable, and so different to last time it will be very difficult in lots of seats to know how to vote tactically.
All these regions sucking the life out of the Britain.
To correct one error, even two, might make sense.
But when they’ve notched up 12 U-turns and rising, the only conclusion is serial incompetence.
https://x.com/washingtonpost/status/2011228286299291775?s=20
Coming our way:
'Today the White House said that the president's security detail holding down a protestor so the president could shit on his face was appropriate.'
“If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail!”
*change a couple of letters and we're somewhere close
https://x.com/noelreports/status/2011190766584971545
Called it. They ChatGPT'ed, give me all the terrible things their fans have done so we can ban them, and it came up with an event that never happened.
With the continued exodus from the Tories to the new Tories, and Labour's own slide into irrelevance, we are seeing a significant shift in voter intention which will make a mockery of FPTP. Shifts don't always stick - the Red wall went blue then red again. But is now heading for light blue it would seem.
My own party? Seemingly irrelevant. I am glad that my focus in 2026 is business and not politics, I would have been disappointed as a candidate in May...
Police chief apologises for 'erroneous' Maccabi Tel Aviv fan ban evidence, blaming AI
https://news.sky.com/story/police-chief-apologises-for-erroneous-maccabi-tel-aviv-fan-ban-evidence-blaming-ai-13494040
Most won’t get the reference, so https://x.com/carlyfarly69/status/2011160595106791574
Honestly, this government is just shocking
It’s a total non issue.
Some guy is rude to a visiting dignatory. He deserves the sack. Would be the same if it was Biden.
Still it occupied a few people on here for a while.
Craig Guildford was worried about riots from locals in Birmingham, not the visiting football fans.
Oh.
You did indeed !
Junior heads must roll.
Just about managed to drag myself out from under the weight of the horrendous puns this morning.
I commented on the Welsh poll yesterday evening so I won't repeat myself (this time).
On Government U-turns, all Governments do them and you could argue all the time. Part of governance is to float an idea and see what happens (or, if you prefer, run it up the flagpole and see who salutes). In this social media and rolling news cycle era, those opposed to either a) the proposed policy or b) everything the Government says, thinks or does will be out of the traps like the proverbial A1 greyhound to state all the reasons why it's wrong and won't work.
To paraphrase a wise man, the only tweets more boring than those criticising the Government are those praising it and as the hostile reviews come in, Government will look at a) who is being hostile and b) why. If a) are the usual suspects, they won't mind but if some of those criticising the idea are among those who are normally supportive, that gets the alarm bells ringing.
In addition, those who normally support you but are critical of this idea will give better reasons why they are opposed and what the problems are then those who are hostile just for the sake of it.
I do think at times Starmer takes too much notice of hostility because, like most politicians, he just wants to be liked (and to keep his job). There are times when you have to do what you think is right even if many say you are wrong - it's called "conviction politics" and has a different meaning nowadays I fear.
The problem with conviction politics is what happens when it's proved you were wrong and everyone else was right...
But imagine not checking all actual incidents ChatGPT provided. They are the f##king police, evidence matters and they also have easy access to check.
On that measure Scotland is seven times more productive than Peru, as if it matters a feck.
Edit, at least I think so. Its a bit confusing to be honest.
Also double lying plod,
In a letter to the chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee, Guildford says the information "arose as result of a use of Microsoft Co Pilot" - he had previously insisted the force "do not use AI" and a Google search provided the information.
Why did Trump react that way? Because the heckle bit close to his paedophile home...
The rest of the UK though is terrible. Poland now really isn't far away on straight GDP / Capita than the UK, and especially if you remove London.
Sorry but Guildford’s position is totally untenable.
REF: 31% (=)
CON: 21% (-2)
LAB: 19% (=)
LDEM: 12% (=)
GRN: 12% (+2)
Fieldwork from 10/1 - 13/1 - changes from the poll released on 7/1.
A huge swing from the Greens to the Conservatives (he jests). Again, we have the notable disparity between the Reform, LD and Green numbers between YouGov and other pollsters.
I'm wondering if this could be connected to weighting by likelihood to vote....
They will haul seats in certain places, for sure, but I don't believe this landslide stuff - people in most seats will work out who's most likely to beat Reform and block them if they feel that strongly about it, even if it results in a Balkanised House of Commons.
I've always questioned who are the people who vote in UK elections, that don't vote in devolved elections, a good 15 percent in Wales' case. Will these people turn out when the result is not the usual forgone conclusion.
London achieves that with under 10 million people.