Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
You are seriously saying that Zelensky and Putin are moral equivalents? Seriously equating Zelensky and Farage? That is, um, an "interesting" view.
Not just a wrong view, a highly offensive view.
I never mentioned Putin.
Zelensky and Farage do have some similarities...
Peddler of simplistic solutions to complex issues for morons inclined to nationalism by deploying personal rizz. Blatant liar, yet somehow shit doesn't stick. One of Zelensky's campaign slogans was Nyet Druzhy, Nyet Kumostva (No Friends, No Nepotism). On DAY ONE of his presidency, he appointed 15 people from his TV company to government positions. Trusts almost nobody, micromanages everything. Betrays and discards former confederates at the drop of an ushanka. Loves flegs.
You’re flattering Farage, if you compare him to someone as inspirational as Zelensky.
The other way round I think. Zelensky is a global figurehead. He would always have been feted regardless of personal qualities - that is not me saying he doesn't have any qualities, just that his sainthood has been a given. Farage on the other hand is working against the grain of every organ of the modern state. There are no airbrushed Vogue covers of Farage and his main squeeze.
Zelensky could have easily got on that helicopter with a big bag of cash, when the Russians invaded. Indeed, many expected him to do so.
The Telegraph, with its eye as usual on its key readership, notes house prices in Kensington & Chelsea have fallen 16% in the past year from an average £1.47 million to £1.19 million and while the wailing and gnashing of teeth continues, overall London house prices have fallen 2.4% apparently (and needless to say, it's all Rachel Reeves's fault but then so is the weather, the state of English cricket, my inability to back winners etc).
The other side of this is fewer Londoners are leaving the capital because it seems the price differential between the capital and other parts of the country isn't what it was and your East End matchbox no longer equates to a five bedroom property with 20 acres of land in Yorkshire (I mean, who wants 20 acres, who lives in a matchbox and why not Lincolnshire, Lancashire or Cheshire, why is it always Yorkshire?)
Presumably this will enable provincial English people to move back into the capital so the streets will be alive with clotted cream, whippets and dubious accents (not much different to now then).
Average house prices are an utterly useless metric when n is small. More concerning is that liquidity has completely dried up
GB News is complaining that the "Mansion Tax" could put house prices of properties UP by £30k. Which is ... interesting.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
You are seriously saying that Zelensky and Putin are moral equivalents? Seriously equating Zelensky and Farage? That is, um, an "interesting" view.
Not just a wrong view, a highly offensive view.
I never mentioned Putin.
Zelensky and Farage do have some similarities...
Peddler of simplistic solutions to complex issues for morons inclined to nationalism by deploying personal rizz. Blatant liar, yet somehow shit doesn't stick. One of Zelensky's campaign slogans was Nyet Druzhy, Nyet Kumostva (No Friends, No Nepotism). On DAY ONE of his presidency, he appointed 15 people from his TV company to government positions. Trusts almost nobody, micromanages everything. Betrays and discards former confederates at the drop of an ushanka. Loves flegs.
You’re flattering Farage, if you compare him to someone as inspirational as Zelensky.
The other way round I think. Zelensky is a global figurehead. He would always have been feted regardless of personal qualities - that is not me saying he doesn't have any qualities, just that his sainthood has been a given. Farage on the other hand is working against the grain of every organ of the modern state. There are no airbrushed Vogue covers of Farage and his main squeeze.
Zelensky could have easily got on that helicopter with a big bag of cash, when the Russians invaded. Indeed, many expected him to do so.
So the story goes.
I suggest you read up on the accounts of what was happen in Paris and Berlin, for example. They believed that Russia would, indeed, steam roller Ukraine in a couple of days.
This, in turn, was based on information they'd obtained from Russia. The Russians thought they had bribed/subverted the majority of the Ukrainian elite. But most of them had gone straight to Ukrainian intelligence. So the Russians thought they'd won before the'd started.
On the flip side the Ukrainians had the Russian plans - the failed airport bridgehead, for example, was supposed to be in conjunction with the managers of the airport, and the local military commanders. Who instead, massacred the Russia paratroopers.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
You are seriously saying that Zelensky and Putin are moral equivalents? Seriously equating Zelensky and Farage? That is, um, an "interesting" view.
Not just a wrong view, a highly offensive view.
I never mentioned Putin.
Zelensky and Farage do have some similarities...
Peddler of simplistic solutions to complex issues for morons inclined to nationalism by deploying personal rizz. Blatant liar, yet somehow shit doesn't stick. One of Zelensky's campaign slogans was Nyet Druzhy, Nyet Kumostva (No Friends, No Nepotism). On DAY ONE of his presidency, he appointed 15 people from his TV company to government positions. Trusts almost nobody, micromanages everything. Betrays and discards former confederates at the drop of an ushanka. Loves flegs.
You’re flattering Farage, if you compare him to someone as inspirational as Zelensky.
The other way round I think. Zelensky is a global figurehead. He would always have been feted regardless of personal qualities - that is not me saying he doesn't have any qualities, just that his sainthood has been a given. Farage on the other hand is working against the grain of every organ of the modern state. There are no airbrushed Vogue covers of Farage and his main squeeze.
Zelensky could have easily got on that helicopter with a big bag of cash, when the Russians invaded. Indeed, many expected him to do so.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
You are seriously saying that Zelensky and Putin are moral equivalents? Seriously equating Zelensky and Farage? That is, um, an "interesting" view.
Not just a wrong view, a highly offensive view.
I never mentioned Putin.
Zelensky and Farage do have some similarities...
Peddler of simplistic solutions to complex issues for morons inclined to nationalism by deploying personal rizz. Blatant liar, yet somehow shit doesn't stick. One of Zelensky's campaign slogans was Nyet Druzhy, Nyet Kumostva (No Friends, No Nepotism). On DAY ONE of his presidency, he appointed 15 people from his TV company to government positions. Trusts almost nobody, micromanages everything. Betrays and discards former confederates at the drop of an ushanka. Loves flegs.
You’re flattering Farage, if you compare him to someone as inspirational as Zelensky.
The other way round I think. Zelensky is a global figurehead. He would always have been feted regardless of personal qualities - that is not me saying he doesn't have any qualities, just that his sainthood has been a given. Farage on the other hand is working against the grain of every organ of the modern state. There are no airbrushed Vogue covers of Farage and his main squeeze.
Zelensky could have easily got on that helicopter with a big bag of cash, when the Russians invaded. Indeed, many expected him to do so.
So the story goes.
I suggest you read up on the accounts of what was happen in Paris and Berlin, for example. They believed that Russia would, indeed, steam roller Ukraine in a couple of days.
This, in turn, was based on information they'd obtained from Russia. The Russians thought they had bribed/subverted the majority of the Ukrainian elite. But most of them had gone straight to Ukrainian intelligence. So the Russians thought they'd won before the'd started.
On the flip side the Ukrainians had the Russian plans - the failed airport bridgehead, for example, was supposed to be in conjunction with the managers of the airport, and the local military commanders. Who instead, massacred the Russia paratroopers.
I am aware of how dicey it was for the Ukrainians in that early stage of the war. I'm also not saying that Zelensky didn't bravely defy the wishes of the USA in order to manage the fight for Kiev - I don't know. However, it strikes me that it was probably a good deal more managed.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
You are seriously saying that Zelensky and Putin are moral equivalents? Seriously equating Zelensky and Farage? That is, um, an "interesting" view.
Not just a wrong view, a highly offensive view.
I never mentioned Putin.
Zelensky and Farage do have some similarities...
Peddler of simplistic solutions to complex issues for morons inclined to nationalism by deploying personal rizz. Blatant liar, yet somehow shit doesn't stick. One of Zelensky's campaign slogans was Nyet Druzhy, Nyet Kumostva (No Friends, No Nepotism). On DAY ONE of his presidency, he appointed 15 people from his TV company to government positions. Trusts almost nobody, micromanages everything. Betrays and discards former confederates at the drop of an ushanka. Loves flegs.
You’re flattering Farage, if you compare him to someone as inspirational as Zelensky.
The other way round I think. Zelensky is a global figurehead. He would always have been feted regardless of personal qualities - that is not me saying he doesn't have any qualities, just that his sainthood has been a given. Farage on the other hand is working against the grain of every organ of the modern state. There are no airbrushed Vogue covers of Farage and his main squeeze.
Zelensky could have easily got on that helicopter with a big bag of cash, when the Russians invaded. Indeed, many expected him to do so.
So the story goes.
I suggest you read up on the accounts of what was happen in Paris and Berlin, for example. They believed that Russia would, indeed, steam roller Ukraine in a couple of days.
This, in turn, was based on information they'd obtained from Russia. The Russians thought they had bribed/subverted the majority of the Ukrainian elite. But most of them had gone straight to Ukrainian intelligence. So the Russians thought they'd won before the'd started.
On the flip side the Ukrainians had the Russian plans - the failed airport bridgehead, for example, was supposed to be in conjunction with the managers of the airport, and the local military commanders. Who instead, massacred the Russia paratroopers.
I am aware of how dicey it was for the Ukrainians in that early stage of the war. I'm also not saying that Zelensky didn't bravely defy the wishes of the USA in order to manage the fight for Kiev - I don't know. However, it strikes me that it was probably a good deal more managed.
It wasn’t about wishes. It was about assumptions that Russia would win quickly. Hence Germany and France getting irritated with the U.K. supplying arms.
Which they saw as only annoying Russia and damaging the post war trade that would happen while everyone tut-tutted about how bad Russia had been.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
You are seriously saying that Zelensky and Putin are moral equivalents? Seriously equating Zelensky and Farage? That is, um, an "interesting" view.
Not just a wrong view, a highly offensive view.
I never mentioned Putin.
Zelensky and Farage do have some similarities...
Peddler of simplistic solutions to complex issues for morons inclined to nationalism by deploying personal rizz. Blatant liar, yet somehow shit doesn't stick. One of Zelensky's campaign slogans was Nyet Druzhy, Nyet Kumostva (No Friends, No Nepotism). On DAY ONE of his presidency, he appointed 15 people from his TV company to government positions. Trusts almost nobody, micromanages everything. Betrays and discards former confederates at the drop of an ushanka. Loves flegs.
You’re flattering Farage, if you compare him to someone as inspirational as Zelensky.
The other way round I think. Zelensky is a global figurehead. He would always have been feted regardless of personal qualities - that is not me saying he doesn't have any qualities, just that his sainthood has been a given. Farage on the other hand is working against the grain of every organ of the modern state. There are no airbrushed Vogue covers of Farage and his main squeeze.
Zelensky could have easily got on that helicopter with a big bag of cash, when the Russians invaded. Indeed, many expected him to do so.
So the story goes.
I suggest you read up on the accounts of what was happen in Paris and Berlin, for example. They believed that Russia would, indeed, steam roller Ukraine in a couple of days.
This, in turn, was based on information they'd obtained from Russia. The Russians thought they had bribed/subverted the majority of the Ukrainian elite. But most of them had gone straight to Ukrainian intelligence. So the Russians thought they'd won before the'd started.
On the flip side the Ukrainians had the Russian plans - the failed airport bridgehead, for example, was supposed to be in conjunction with the managers of the airport, and the local military commanders. Who instead, massacred the Russia paratroopers.
And their biggest success- Kherson was due to treason by the former mayor Saldo
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
Finland's moral victory over Russia counted for a lot.
Today is the 1,400th day of Russia's Special Military Operation.
Russia's involvement in WW2 was only 1,418 days.
It's not true though. The Soviet Union joined the War on 17 September 1939, on the Nazi side.
No. The Soviet Union remained officially neutral in the war between Germany and the western allies.
The German declaration of war on the Soviet Union, officially Note of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Germany to the Soviet government from 21 June 1941 is a diplomatic note presented by German Foreign Minister Joachim von Ribbentrop to Soviet ambassador Vladimir Dekanozov in Berlin on 22 June 1941 at 4 a.m. local time, informing him about the German invasion of the Soviet Union and the preceding casus belli.
The Russian didn't officially declare war on Germany. The existence of the German declaration of war on the Soviet Union was long concealed by Soviet authorities, because it mentions the secret protocol to the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact which was revealed only in 1989.
The reaction of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin was described particularly in the memoirs of Georgy Zhukov. According to Zhukov, when Molotov reported that Germany had declared war, Stalin "sank down into his chair and lost himself in thought". After a protracted pause Stalin finally allowed the issue of Directive No. 2 on combat readiness at 7:15 a.m. on 22 June. According to admiral Nikolai Kuznetsov, however, Soviet troops were brought into combat readiness already on 21 June, at around 17:00.
I realise they didn't declare war, but they invaded Poland (and later the Baltic states) and therefore supported the Nazi dismemberment of Poland. That sounds like "taking part" to me. Poland was an Allied nation. They haven't declared war on Ukraine either.
Finland is usually regarded as a participant in WW2 as well.
Finland lost nearly three times the proportion of its population than the UK as casualties of the war, and during the Lapland War pretty much every settlement in the north of the country was burned to the ground, by the Germans, and the residents driven away. Following on from their heroic success in holding the Soviets at bay, despite overwhelming odds.
Finland spent most of WW2 allied to the Nazis, before switching sides in 1944. The full story is quite complex, see
To be fair, Finland had been invaded by Russia, taken terrible losses from them, and been forced to cede a significant portion of territory.
They also paid a large amount of money to the UK and France for weapons... most of which ended up not being delivered, because they were needed for our own war effort.
Can you blame them for thinking my enemy's enemy is my friend?
Certainly, it's hard to think their behavior is worse than the Soviets, who -lest we forget- started the Second World War as Germany's ally, and invaded Poland and Finland before moving onto the Baltic States.
Ah yes, Finland.
Where Stalin decided that the existence of Finland (which wanted to be neutral) was so much of a threat that he tried to take over the whole country. He was going to annex a big chunk, and put in a puppet government in what was left. See Poland.
Stalin fucked up, to the point that the Germans thought the Soviet Union was rotten and about to fall over. Whoops.
And managed to ensure that Finland was (and is) a wary and heavily neighbour to Russia, to this day.
Finland was a lukewarm ally of Hitler - they refused to attack Russia in the ways he wanted. Which is why, after the war, Stalin didn't try and insist on another takeover (as with the rest of Eastern Europe).
In The Gathering Storm Churchill wrote that he was impressed by the fight put up by the Finns in 1939. He asked his staff to see whether military aid could be provided by sending forces through Narvik and then across Sweden. It would also have the effect of cutting off iron ore from Kiruna to Germany. He was told this would be against the neutral status of both Norway and Sweden. The German invasion of Norway changed that and of course an attempt was made against Narvik in 1940.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
Indeed: and it is entirely possible that the rest of Ukraine will be fully aligned with the West, which will do it no harm at all.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
Indeed: and it is entirely possible that the rest of Ukraine will be fully aligned with the West, which will do it no harm at all.
I don't think I've ever managed to kill a PB conversation stone dead with a single post before.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
I didn't say it meant they had won, merely that they hadn't lost.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
I didn't say it meant they had won, merely that they hadn't lost.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Ukraine lost this war about 18 months ago..most of the Western media and the posters on here just didn't realise it..🧐😚
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
I didn't say it meant they had won, merely that they hadn't lost.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Ukraine lost this war about 18 months ago..most of the Western media and the posters on here just didn't realise it..🧐😚
The Ukrainians and Russians don't seem to have realised it either, to be fair.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Ukraine is pouring vast amounts of blood and treasure into a war they never wanted. It's entirely understandable they want that to stop, upper hand or not.
Isn't it just Ashcroft that is showing a marked Reform decline? Some of the others are showing them continue to rise afaicr. I was surprised they were doing so well after the various shitstorms.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
The Black Knight and the Knights Who Like To Say Ni were separate people. The Black Knight was played by John Cleese and the Knight who says Ni by Michael Palin.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
I didn't say it meant they had won, merely that they hadn't lost.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Ukraine lost this war about 18 months ago..most of the Western media and the posters on here just didn't realise it..🧐😚
Just as a matter of interest, other than China, who won? Because Russia sure as shit isn't winning.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
I didn't say it meant they had won, merely that they hadn't lost.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Ukraine lost this war about 18 months ago..most of the Western media and the posters on here just didn't realise it..🧐😚
Contrarian, as in defying conventional wisdom to the point of stupidity.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
I didn't say it meant they had won, merely that they hadn't lost.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Ukraine lost this war about 18 months ago..most of the Western media and the posters on here just didn't realise it..🧐😚
Contrarian, as in defying conventional wisdom to the point of stupidity.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
I didn't say it meant they had won, merely that they hadn't lost.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Ukraine lost this war about 18 months ago..most of the Western media and the posters on here just didn't realise it..🧐😚
Contrarian, as in defying conventional wisdom to the point of stupidity.
Just remember, FINCHLEY ROAD.
Is that based on eveidence? Or just on a hunch, man?
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
I didn't say it meant they had won, merely that they hadn't lost.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Ukraine lost this war about 18 months ago..most of the Western media and the posters on here just didn't realise it..🧐😚
Contrarian, as in defying conventional wisdom to the point of stupidity.
Hhmm..most of the Donbas is now Russian..And Zeklensky is scrambling for an agreement as he realises the Americans have got no interest in backing them..🤨 I'm afraid the Hamish De Bretton analysis of the war has been shown to be the junk it is..💩
Isn't it just Ashcroft that is showing a marked Reform decline? Some of the others are showing them continue to rise afaicr. I was surprised they were doing so well after the various shitstorms.
ReFuk are down around 3 percentage points on the polling average since October, with the Tories bouncing back by a similar amount.
Meanwhile Labour's year and a half long decline shows no signs that it has hit the floor. The Wacky Zacky Party mopping up the disaffected Trots and their fellow travellers.
Isn't it just Ashcroft that is showing a marked Reform decline? Some of the others are showing them continue to rise afaicr. I was surprised they were doing so well after the various shitstorms.
YouGov and More in Common also have Reform down in recent weeks. Could be noise of course.
Isn't it just Ashcroft that is showing a marked Reform decline? Some of the others are showing them continue to rise afaicr. I was surprised they were doing so well after the various shitstorms.
No Yougov. They are but half a nipple ahead of Labour and the Tories are catching them fast
Today is the 1,400th day of Russia's Special Military Operation.
Russia's involvement in WW2 was only 1,418 days.
It's not true though. The Soviet Union joined the War on 17 September 1939, on the Nazi side.
No. The Soviet Union remained officially neutral in the war between Germany and the western allies.
The German declaration of war on the Soviet Union, officially Note of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Germany to the Soviet government from 21 June 1941 is a diplomatic note presented by German Foreign Minister Joachim von Ribbentrop to Soviet ambassador Vladimir Dekanozov in Berlin on 22 June 1941 at 4 a.m. local time, informing him about the German invasion of the Soviet Union and the preceding casus belli.
The Russian didn't officially declare war on Germany. The existence of the German declaration of war on the Soviet Union was long concealed by Soviet authorities, because it mentions the secret protocol to the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact which was revealed only in 1989.
The reaction of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin was described particularly in the memoirs of Georgy Zhukov. According to Zhukov, when Molotov reported that Germany had declared war, Stalin "sank down into his chair and lost himself in thought". After a protracted pause Stalin finally allowed the issue of Directive No. 2 on combat readiness at 7:15 a.m. on 22 June. According to admiral Nikolai Kuznetsov, however, Soviet troops were brought into combat readiness already on 21 June, at around 17:00.
I realise they didn't declare war, but they invaded Poland (and later the Baltic states) and therefore supported the Nazi dismemberment of Poland. That sounds like "taking part" to me. Poland was an Allied nation. They haven't declared war on Ukraine either.
Finland is usually regarded as a participant in WW2 as well.
Finland lost nearly three times the proportion of its population than the UK as casualties of the war, and during the Lapland War pretty much every settlement in the north of the country was burned to the ground, by the Germans, and the residents driven away. Following on from their heroic success in holding the Soviets at bay, despite overwhelming odds.
Finland spent most of WW2 allied to the Nazis, before switching sides in 1944. The full story is quite complex, see
If that is the Curtice commentary I saw a few days ago it is about how their monthly average of a number of polls (ie mean of a group of samples of share) has declined modestly since October. Which suggests slightly over peak rather than clearly going backwards.
Much as I would be delighted were RefUK going down the drain, it is marginal, and not enough to make much of a dent. Given the Elections due in the spring, it needs more wheels to fall off the clown car, and be seen to have fallen off, before imo we can call "peak" rather than "possible point of inflection".
And that link is to the "Robespierre" commentary on Curtice, rather than the original (which I'm not surte i can find on Times Radio).
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
I suggest the key country is the US. If the US pulled support for Putin and put everything behind Ukraine, the war would end quickly too.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
You are seriously saying that Zelensky and Putin are moral equivalents? Seriously equating Zelensky and Farage? That is, um, an "interesting" view.
Not just a wrong view, a highly offensive view.
I never mentioned Putin.
Zelensky and Farage do have some similarities...
Peddler of simplistic solutions to complex issues for morons inclined to nationalism by deploying personal rizz. Blatant liar, yet somehow shit doesn't stick. One of Zelensky's campaign slogans was Nyet Druzhy, Nyet Kumostva (No Friends, No Nepotism). On DAY ONE of his presidency, he appointed 15 people from his TV company to government positions. Trusts almost nobody, micromanages everything. Betrays and discards former confederates at the drop of an ushanka. Loves flegs.
You’re flattering Farage, if you compare him to someone as inspirational as Zelensky.
The other way round I think. Zelensky is a global figurehead. He would always have been feted regardless of personal qualities - that is not me saying he doesn't have any qualities, just that his sainthood has been a given. Farage on the other hand is working against the grain of every organ of the modern state. There are no airbrushed Vogue covers of Farage and his main squeeze.
Farage’s main squeeze, Laure Ferrari, would, I’m sure, look great on the cover of Vogue, but Farage seems to be hiding her. Is that because of questions over who bought the house? Or questions over her past political scandals? Or just because Reform UK voters aren’t going to approve of a French girlfriend?
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
I didn't say it meant they had won, merely that they hadn't lost.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Ukraine lost this war about 18 months ago..most of the Western media and the posters on here just didn't realise it..🧐😚
Contrarian, as in defying conventional wisdom to the point of stupidity.
Hhmm..most of the Donbas is now Russian..And Zeklensky is scrambling for an agreement as he realises the Americans have got no interest in backing them..🤨 I'm afraid the Hamish De Bretton analysis of the war has been shown to be the junk it is..💩
In the past 18 months, how much of the Donbas, in say square miles, has Russia captured?
The reality of the Ukraine War is that the front lines have not moved very much in the last 18 months, and both Ukraine and Russia have lost enormous quantities of men and materiel. Russia has captures a small amount of territory - like the front lines have moved 15 miles or so, in some parts of the line. But they've also endured 4 or 5x the casualties Ukraine has, because they're attacking.
Russia continues to hope that one last push will see the Ukrainian lines collapse.
Ukraine keeps hoping Putin gets bumped off, or that the Russian economy collapses and that they lack the ability to continue offensive operations.
Ukraine is essentially obligated to say they want a cease fire, because failure to toe the line on that point risks Starlink being turned off, which would be a disaster for the Ukrainian war effort.
Putin believes Russia is closer to breakthrough than they are, because no one is telling him the truth.
The war will continue - imho - until either Ukraine's backers decide that they cannot afford to support the war (something likely precipitated by Russia's allies gaining power in European capitals); or until the stresses on the Russian economy become intolerable, and Putin decides that what he has is enough to sell as a victory. (With more than a million people dead or invalided out, that will require quite a sales job.)
Bear in mind, of course, that the invasion is usually the easy part. Russia will have a long and expensive issue ruling over a bunch of people who would rather be part of the country next door. And occupation is usually economically ruinous.
Isn't it just Ashcroft that is showing a marked Reform decline? Some of the others are showing them continue to rise afaicr. I was surprised they were doing so well after the various shitstorms.
ReFuk are down around 3 percentage points on the polling average since October, with the Tories bouncing back by a similar amount.
Meanwhile Labour's year and a half long decline shows no signs that it has hit the floor. The Wacky Zacky Party mopping up the disaffected Trots and their fellow travellers.
The interesting bit of the Ashcroft poll was rather small print:
The reality of the Ukraine War is that the front lines have not moved very much in the last 18 months, and both Ukraine and Russia have lost enormous quantities of men and materiel. Russia has captures a small amount of territory - like the front lines have moved 15 miles or so, in some parts of the line. But they've also endured 4 or 5x the casualties Ukraine has, because they're attacking.
Russia continues to hope that one last push will see the Ukrainian lines collapse.
Ukraine keeps hoping Putin gets bumped off, or that the Russian economy collapses and that they lack the ability to continue offensive operations.
Ukraine is essentially obligated to say they want a cease fire, because failure to toe the line on that point risks Starlink being turned off, which would be a disaster for the Ukrainian war effort.
Putin believes Russia is closer to breakthrough than they are, because no one is telling him the truth.
The war will continue - imho - until either Ukraine's backers decide that they cannot afford to support the war (something likely precipitated by their allies gaining power in European capitals); or until the stresses on the Russian economy become intolerable, and Putin decides that what he has is enough to sell as a victory. (With more than a million people dead or invalided out, that will require quite a sales job.)
Bear in mind, of course, that the invasion is usually the easy part. Russia will have a long and expensive issue ruling over a bunch of people who would rather be part of the country next door. And occupation is usually economically ruinous.
To some extent both sides are hoping for a political wildcard to intervene in their favour, and Putin is probably most likely to be disappointed in that regard because even if Le Pen/Farage/AfD were elected in Western Europe, I don't think it would change the facts on the ground very much.
I hope those who followed my earlier racing suggestions had a few quid on IDAHO SUN and BANBRIDGE each way - the latter should have won the King George and it's strange how a £20 each way bet at 20/1 feels like a loser....
My comments on Ukraine this morning ruffled a few feathers - no, @tlg86, they are NOT Liberal Democrat policy and if all you have is a cheap jibe, leave the debating to the grown ups.
They aren't my opinion either - Russia committed an unconscionable act of aggression and the global response should have been as it was when Saddam invaded Kuwait in August 1990 and the fact it wasn't speaks volumes as to where we have gone since those heady post-Berlin Wall days.
What I offered wasn't opinion but the truth of where we are, as I see it. From early on, I've asked how this ends and there are only three options:
1) The political or military collapse of the Ukraine leaving Russia in control of all or most of the country. 2) The political or military collapse of Russia with Putin ousted and a new administration withdrawing from Ukraine. 3) A negotiated settlement leaving a peacekeeping force in control of a "buffer zone" between the Russian-ruled Donbas and the rest of Ukraine. The sight of Brazilian or Nigerian forces moving up and down the streets of Lukhansk or Donetsk might seem far fetched but if someone pays the bills for them being there (Europe?), it might work.
3) is the most likely now but 1) and 2) aren't wholly inconceivable. The other part of peace will be the humanitarian diaspora of Ukrainians to the west and Russians to the east which will need to be managed and administered. It's also far from certain the "peace" will bring about anything approaching a political solution though the movement of people might (it usually does).
The reality of the Ukraine War is that the front lines have not moved very much in the last 18 months, and both Ukraine and Russia have lost enormous quantities of men and materiel. Russia has captures a small amount of territory - like the front lines have moved 15 miles or so, in some parts of the line. But they've also endured 4 or 5x the casualties Ukraine has, because they're attacking.
Russia continues to hope that one last push will see the Ukrainian lines collapse.
Ukraine keeps hoping Putin gets bumped off, or that the Russian economy collapses and that they lack the ability to continue offensive operations.
Ukraine is essentially obligated to say they want a cease fire, because failure to toe the line on that point risks Starlink being turned off, which would be a disaster for the Ukrainian war effort.
Putin believes Russia is closer to breakthrough than they are, because no one is telling him the truth.
The war will continue - imho - until either Ukraine's backers decide that they cannot afford to support the war (something likely precipitated by their allies gaining power in European capitals); or until the stresses on the Russian economy become intolerable, and Putin decides that what he has is enough to sell as a victory. (With more than a million people dead or invalided out, that will require quite a sales job.)
Bear in mind, of course, that the invasion is usually the easy part. Russia will have a long and expensive issue ruling over a bunch of people who would rather be part of the country next door. And occupation is usually economically ruinous.
To some extent both sides are hoping for a political wildcard to intervene in their favour, and Putin is probably most likely to be disappointed in that regard because even if Le Pen/Farage/AfD were elected in Western Europe, I don't think it would change the facts on the ground very much.
Somewhat less than the election of their fellow Russophile Trump in Washington has, certainly.
Of course, I say that but the real game changer for Putin would be if Trump is replaced by Vance, who makes Aldrich Ames look anti-Russian.
The reality of the Ukraine War is that the front lines have not moved very much in the last 18 months, and both Ukraine and Russia have lost enormous quantities of men and materiel. Russia has captures a small amount of territory - like the front lines have moved 15 miles or so, in some parts of the line. But they've also endured 4 or 5x the casualties Ukraine has, because they're attacking.
Russia continues to hope that one last push will see the Ukrainian lines collapse.
Ukraine keeps hoping Putin gets bumped off, or that the Russian economy collapses and that they lack the ability to continue offensive operations.
Ukraine is essentially obligated to say they want a cease fire, because failure to toe the line on that point risks Starlink being turned off, which would be a disaster for the Ukrainian war effort.
Putin believes Russia is closer to breakthrough than they are, because no one is telling him the truth.
The war will continue - imho - until either Ukraine's backers decide that they cannot afford to support the war (something likely precipitated by their allies gaining power in European capitals); or until the stresses on the Russian economy become intolerable, and Putin decides that what he has is enough to sell as a victory. (With more than a million people dead or invalided out, that will require quite a sales job.)
Bear in mind, of course, that the invasion is usually the easy part. Russia will have a long and expensive issue ruling over a bunch of people who would rather be part of the country next door. And occupation is usually economically ruinous.
To some extent both sides are hoping for a political wildcard to intervene in their favour, and Putin is probably most likely to be disappointed in that regard because even if Le Pen/Farage/AfD were elected in Western Europe, I don't think it would change the facts on the ground very much.
Somewhat less than the election of their fellow Russophile Trump in Washington has, certainly.
Of course, I say that but the real game changer for Putin would be if Trump is replaced by Vance, who makes Aldrich Ames look anti-Russian.
Even Vance as president probably wouldn't make much difference. He would have enough domestic issues on his plate, and his interest in European politics is still more focused on opposing the Western European establishment than actively helping Russia.
I hope those who followed my earlier racing suggestions had a few quid on IDAHO SUN and BANBRIDGE each way - the latter should have won the King George and it's strange how a £20 each way bet at 20/1 feels like a loser....
My comments on Ukraine this morning ruffled a few feathers - no, @tlg86, they are NOT Liberal Democrat policy and if all you have is a cheap jibe, leave the debating to the grown ups.
They aren't my opinion either - Russia committed an unconscionable act of aggression and the global response should have been as it was when Saddam invaded Kuwait in August 1990 and the fact it wasn't speaks volumes as to where we have gone since those heady post-Berlin Wall days.
What I offered wasn't opinion but the truth of where we are, as I see it. From early on, I've asked how this ends and there are only three options:
1) The political or military collapse of the Ukraine leaving Russia in control of all or most of the country. 2) The political or military collapse of Russia with Putin ousted and a new administration withdrawing from Ukraine. 3) A negotiated settlement leaving a peacekeeping force in control of a "buffer zone" between the Russian-ruled Donbas and the rest of Ukraine. The sight of Brazilian or Nigerian forces moving up and down the streets of Lukhansk or Donetsk might seem far fetched but if someone pays the bills for them being there (Europe?), it might work.
3) is the most likely now but 1) and 2) aren't wholly inconceivable. The other part of peace will be the humanitarian diaspora of Ukrainians to the west and Russians to the east which will need to be managed and administered. It's also far from certain the "peace" will bring about anything approaching a political solution though the movement of people might (it usually does).
Your tips were very decent .saying as I won with Jukebox Man..😚
The reality of the Ukraine War is that the front lines have not moved very much in the last 18 months, and both Ukraine and Russia have lost enormous quantities of men and materiel. Russia has captures a small amount of territory - like the front lines have moved 15 miles or so, in some parts of the line. But they've also endured 4 or 5x the casualties Ukraine has, because they're attacking.
Russia continues to hope that one last push will see the Ukrainian lines collapse.
Ukraine keeps hoping Putin gets bumped off, or that the Russian economy collapses and that they lack the ability to continue offensive operations.
Ukraine is essentially obligated to say they want a cease fire, because failure to toe the line on that point risks Starlink being turned off, which would be a disaster for the Ukrainian war effort.
Putin believes Russia is closer to breakthrough than they are, because no one is telling him the truth.
The war will continue - imho - until either Ukraine's backers decide that they cannot afford to support the war (something likely precipitated by their allies gaining power in European capitals); or until the stresses on the Russian economy become intolerable, and Putin decides that what he has is enough to sell as a victory. (With more than a million people dead or invalided out, that will require quite a sales job.)
Bear in mind, of course, that the invasion is usually the easy part. Russia will have a long and expensive issue ruling over a bunch of people who would rather be part of the country next door. And occupation is usually economically ruinous.
To some extent both sides are hoping for a political wildcard to intervene in their favour, and Putin is probably most likely to be disappointed in that regard because even if Le Pen/Farage/AfD were elected in Western Europe, I don't think it would change the facts on the ground very much.
Somewhat less than the election of their fellow Russophile Trump in Washington has, certainly.
Of course, I say that but the real game changer for Putin would be if Trump is replaced by Vance, who makes Aldrich Ames look anti-Russian.
Even Vance as president probably wouldn't make much difference. He would have enough domestic issues on his plate, and his interest in European politics is still more focused on opposing the Western European establishment than actively helping Russia.
Merely cutting off all military aid, including intelligence, would kneecap Ukraine, and he could do that very easily indeed domestic issues or no.
Isn't it just Ashcroft that is showing a marked Reform decline? Some of the others are showing them continue to rise afaicr. I was surprised they were doing so well after the various shitstorms.
ReFuk are down around 3 percentage points on the polling average since October, with the Tories bouncing back by a similar amount.
Meanwhile Labour's year and a half long decline shows no signs that it has hit the floor. The Wacky Zacky Party mopping up the disaffected Trots and their fellow travellers.
The interesting bit of the Ashcroft poll was rather small print:
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
I didn't say it meant they had won, merely that they hadn't lost.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Ukraine lost this war about 18 months ago..most of the Western media and the posters on here just didn't realise it..🧐😚
Contrarian, as in defying conventional wisdom to the point of stupidity.
Hhmm..most of the Donbas is now Russian..And Zeklensky is scrambling for an agreement as he realises the Americans have got no interest in backing them..🤨 I'm afraid the Hamish De Bretton analysis of the war has been shown to be the junk it is..💩
In the past 18 months, how much of the Donbas, in say square miles, has Russia captured?
Why last 18 months? How much is ever coming back is a more pertinent question? 🧐
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
You are seriously saying that Zelensky and Putin are moral equivalents? Seriously equating Zelensky and Farage? That is, um, an "interesting" view.
Not just a wrong view, a highly offensive view.
I never mentioned Putin.
Zelensky and Farage do have some similarities...
Peddler of simplistic solutions to complex issues for morons inclined to nationalism by deploying personal rizz. Blatant liar, yet somehow shit doesn't stick. One of Zelensky's campaign slogans was Nyet Druzhy, Nyet Kumostva (No Friends, No Nepotism). On DAY ONE of his presidency, he appointed 15 people from his TV company to government positions. Trusts almost nobody, micromanages everything. Betrays and discards former confederates at the drop of an ushanka. Loves flegs.
You’re flattering Farage, if you compare him to someone as inspirational as Zelensky.
The other way round I think. Zelensky is a global figurehead. He would always have been feted regardless of personal qualities - that is not me saying he doesn't have any qualities, just that his sainthood has been a given. Farage on the other hand is working against the grain of every organ of the modern state. There are no airbrushed Vogue covers of Farage and his main squeeze.
Farage’s main squeeze, Laure Ferrari, would, I’m sure, look great on the cover of Vogue, but Farage seems to be hiding her. Is that because of questions over who bought the house? Or questions over her past political scandals? Or just because Reform UK voters aren’t going to approve of a French girlfriend?
Isn't it just Ashcroft that is showing a marked Reform decline? Some of the others are showing them continue to rise afaicr. I was surprised they were doing so well after the various shitstorms.
ReFuk are down around 3 percentage points on the polling average since October, with the Tories bouncing back by a similar amount.
Meanwhile Labour's year and a half long decline shows no signs that it has hit the floor. The Wacky Zacky Party mopping up the disaffected Trots and their fellow travellers.
The interesting bit of the Ashcroft poll was rather small print:
I hope those who followed my earlier racing suggestions had a few quid on IDAHO SUN and BANBRIDGE each way - the latter should have won the King George and it's strange how a £20 each way bet at 20/1 feels like a loser....
My comments on Ukraine this morning ruffled a few feathers - no, @tlg86, they are NOT Liberal Democrat policy and if all you have is a cheap jibe, leave the debating to the grown ups.
They aren't my opinion either - Russia committed an unconscionable act of aggression and the global response should have been as it was when Saddam invaded Kuwait in August 1990 and the fact it wasn't speaks volumes as to where we have gone since those heady post-Berlin Wall days.
What I offered wasn't opinion but the truth of where we are, as I see it. From early on, I've asked how this ends and there are only three options:
1) The political or military collapse of the Ukraine leaving Russia in control of all or most of the country. 2) The political or military collapse of Russia with Putin ousted and a new administration withdrawing from Ukraine. 3) A negotiated settlement leaving a peacekeeping force in control of a "buffer zone" between the Russian-ruled Donbas and the rest of Ukraine. The sight of Brazilian or Nigerian forces moving up and down the streets of Lukhansk or Donetsk might seem far fetched but if someone pays the bills for them being there (Europe?), it might work.
3) is the most likely now but 1) and 2) aren't wholly inconceivable. The other part of peace will be the humanitarian diaspora of Ukrainians to the west and Russians to the east which will need to be managed and administered. It's also far from certain the "peace" will bring about anything approaching a political solution though the movement of people might (it usually does).
Your tips were very decent .saying as I won with Jukebox Man..😚
So did I - but saying afterwards carries less than top weight.
Isn't it just Ashcroft that is showing a marked Reform decline? Some of the others are showing them continue to rise afaicr. I was surprised they were doing so well after the various shitstorms.
YouGov and More in Common also have Reform down in recent weeks. Could be noise of course.
I don't set much store by either of those pollsters' headline figures, but I suppose a trend with them with them is still a trend. Let's see if it is replicated elsewhere.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
I didn't say it meant they had won, merely that they hadn't lost.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Ukraine lost this war about 18 months ago..most of the Western media and the posters on here just didn't realise it..🧐😚
Contrarian, as in defying conventional wisdom to the point of stupidity.
Hhmm..most of the Donbas is now Russian..And Zeklensky is scrambling for an agreement as he realises the Americans have got no interest in backing them..🤨 I'm afraid the Hamish De Bretton analysis of the war has been shown to be the junk it is..💩
In the past 18 months, how much of the Donbas, in say square miles, has Russia captured?
Why last 18 months? How much is ever coming back is a more pertinent question? 🧐
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
I didn't say it meant they had won, merely that they hadn't lost.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Ukraine lost this war about 18 months ago..most of the Western media and the posters on here just didn't realise it..🧐😚
Contrarian, as in defying conventional wisdom to the point of stupidity.
Hhmm..most of the Donbas is now Russian..And Zeklensky is scrambling for an agreement as he realises the Americans have got no interest in backing them..🤨 I'm afraid the Hamish De Bretton analysis of the war has been shown to be the junk it is..💩
In the past 18 months, how much of the Donbas, in say square miles, has Russia captured?
Why last 18 months? How much is ever coming back is a more pertinent question? 🧐
"Ukraine lost this war about 18 months ago..most of the Western media and the posters on here just didn't realise it..🧐😚"
I think the failure of the Ukranian counter-offensive in Zaporhizia a couple of years back has ended Ukranian hopes of significant recovery of territory at least in the short term.
In the medium term the collapse/replacement of Putin does offer that possibility, but more likely another Great Russian nationalist takes over.
A democratic, free market Ukraine that looks to NATO and the EU will always look a threat to Russia because it exposes everything Russia is not.
Tsar Alexander got to Paris. Stalin got to the River Elbe. Lenin got to Warsaw.*
Putin hasn't quite got to Kupyansk.
*Yes, I know he then had to retreat and lost the war.
Russian troops reached the Channel Islands in the winter of 1799/1800, they were billeted there in the wake of the failed Anglo-Russian invasion of the Netherlands.
This is economic cataclysm: double-digit drops in Russian production of the vast majority of industrial goods from 2024 to 2025. (The tables below show this isn’t a November problem, but across the whole year)
This is economic cataclysm: double-digit drops in Russian production of the vast majority of industrial goods from 2024 to 2025. (The tables below show this isn’t a November problem, but across the whole year)
Putin has done quite well economically so far. Tsar Nicholas II, starting from a stronger base and facing much the same military situation,* lasted only three years and seven months before total economic and social collapse. Putin has got to three years nine months and is still going.
He's obviously confident he can keep the plates spinning for a while longer at least or he wouldn't be making so many crazy demands on Ukraine for peace, even allowing for his patsies like Witkoff and Vance being on the US team.
This data is therefore either wrong, or is not being shown to him. Both are possible.
*Imperial Germany was a more formidable military power than Ukraine, but was facing a war on two fronts which Ukraine is not.
This is economic cataclysm: double-digit drops in Russian production of the vast majority of industrial goods from 2024 to 2025. (The tables below show this isn’t a November problem, but across the whole year)
I'm a little baffled about the decisions made by the people people who went for a dip. I'm very occasionally a sea swimmer, but never in anything like rough conditions.
The fatalities were at Budleigh Salterton, where conditions were - according to the BBC report - 10ft+ breaking waves, and the worst conditions for decades. The organiser of the local sea swimming group decided not to go in. And one account:
Mike Brown, 60, who has lived in Budleigh Salterton for nearly 30 years, said the sea conditions on Thursday were the "worst conditions" he had ever seen.
After entering the sea and being "unable to get out", Mr Brown said he only made it out with the help of "two very brave men" and sustained small injuries.
He said: "After successive waves crashing me into the stones, I managed to get into relatively shallow water, but I was spent.
"I had no energy left to stand and I'd taken a number of blows to the head.
This is economic cataclysm: double-digit drops in Russian production of the vast majority of industrial goods from 2024 to 2025. (The tables below show this isn’t a November problem, but across the whole year)
Putin has done quite well economically so far. Tsar Nicholas II, starting from a stronger base and facing much the same military situation,* lasted only three years and seven months before total economic and social collapse. Putin has got to three years nine months and is still going.
He's obviously confident he can keep the plates spinning for a while longer at least or he wouldn't be making so many crazy demands on Ukraine for peace, even allowing for his patsies like Witkoff and Vance being on the US team.
This data is therefore either wrong, or is not being shown to him. Both are possible.
*Imperial Germany was a more formidable military power than Ukraine, but was facing a war on two fronts which Ukraine is not.
I would say Trump is Ukraine's enemy on the "Western Front".
This is economic cataclysm: double-digit drops in Russian production of the vast majority of industrial goods from 2024 to 2025. (The tables below show this isn’t a November problem, but across the whole year)
Putin has done quite well economically so far. Tsar Nicholas II, starting from a stronger base and facing much the same military situation,* lasted only three years and seven months before total economic and social collapse. Putin has got to three years nine months and is still going.
He's obviously confident he can keep the plates spinning for a while longer at least or he wouldn't be making so many crazy demands on Ukraine for peace, even allowing for his patsies like Witkoff and Vance being on the US team.
This data is therefore either wrong, or is not being shown to him. Both are possible.
*Imperial Germany was a more formidable military power than Ukraine, but was facing a war on two fronts which Ukraine is not.
I would say Trump is Ukraine's enemy on the "Western Front".
He hasn't actually sent soldiers against them yet.
This is economic cataclysm: double-digit drops in Russian production of the vast majority of industrial goods from 2024 to 2025. (The tables below show this isn’t a November problem, but across the whole year)
You can keep up that kind of thing for quite a long time: let's not forget that Germany was at peak war production really remarkably late in the war - late 1944, six months after D-Day.
The issue is more that Putin has tried very hard to shield his population from the effects of the war. But he's currently facing a pretty nasty dilemma: is oil output exported abroad to pay the Chinese for the materiel he needs to persecute the war, but leave the domestic economy short? Or does he do the reverse?
This is economic cataclysm: double-digit drops in Russian production of the vast majority of industrial goods from 2024 to 2025. (The tables below show this isn’t a November problem, but across the whole year)
I'm a little baffled about the decisions made by the people people who went for a dip. I'm very occasionally a sea swimmer, but never in anything like rough conditions.
The fatalities were at Budleigh Salterton, where conditions were - according to the BBC report - 10ft+ breaking waves, and the worst conditions for decades. The organiser of the local sea swimming group decided not to go in. And one account:
Mike Brown, 60, who has lived in Budleigh Salterton for nearly 30 years, said the sea conditions on Thursday were the "worst conditions" he had ever seen.
After entering the sea and being "unable to get out", Mr Brown said he only made it out with the help of "two very brave men" and sustained small injuries.
He said: "After successive waves crashing me into the stones, I managed to get into relatively shallow water, but I was spent.
"I had no energy left to stand and I'd taken a number of blows to the head.
Same as you - I'll jump in whenever an opportunity presents itself (including mountain pools), but not in conditions like this. I suspect group euphoria - there will have been quite a buzz and that can be infectious. It's like being drunk.
I'm a little baffled about the decisions made by the people people who went for a dip. I'm very occasionally a sea swimmer, but never in anything like rough conditions.
Regular but not often. I will swim in literally any conditions. IDGAF.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
I didn't say it meant they had won, merely that they hadn't lost.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Ukraine lost this war about 18 months ago..most of the Western media and the posters on here just didn't realise it..🧐😚
That's not true either. Ukraine can still win, if they're provided with sufficient support, if they improve their training to spread doctrine from their best units and if China doesn't fully commit to Russia.
A lot of people have made definitive predictive statements about this war, which I think is totally mistaken. The outcome depends on choices that have yet to be made and on actions yet to be taken.
I'm a little baffled about the decisions made by the people people who went for a dip. I'm very occasionally a sea swimmer, but never in anything like rough conditions.
The fatalities were at Budleigh Salterton, where conditions were - according to the BBC report - 10ft+ breaking waves, and the worst conditions for decades. The organiser of the local sea swimming group decided not to go in. And one account:
Mike Brown, 60, who has lived in Budleigh Salterton for nearly 30 years, said the sea conditions on Thursday were the "worst conditions" he had ever seen.
After entering the sea and being "unable to get out", Mr Brown said he only made it out with the help of "two very brave men" and sustained small injuries.
He said: "After successive waves crashing me into the stones, I managed to get into relatively shallow water, but I was spent.
"I had no energy left to stand and I'd taken a number of blows to the head.
Same as you - I'll jump in whenever an opportunity presents itself (including mountain pools), but not in conditions like this. I suspect group euphoria - there will have been quite a buzz and that can be infectious. It's like being drunk.
Somebody should have called a halt. Sadly, as nobody did so two men appear to have done a Harold Holt.
I'm a little baffled about the decisions made by the people people who went for a dip. I'm very occasionally a sea swimmer, but never in anything like rough conditions.
Regular but not often. I will swim in literally any conditions. IDGAF.
Having watched people get into difficulties in the Thames, I would say WDGAF - Water Doesn't Give A Fuck.
It's quite hard to impress a tidal river, let alone the sea.
I'm a little baffled about the decisions made by the people people who went for a dip. I'm very occasionally a sea swimmer, but never in anything like rough conditions.
Regular but not often. I will swim in literally any conditions. IDGAF.
This is economic cataclysm: double-digit drops in Russian production of the vast majority of industrial goods from 2024 to 2025. (The tables below show this isn’t a November problem, but across the whole year)
This is economic cataclysm: double-digit drops in Russian production of the vast majority of industrial goods from 2024 to 2025. (The tables below show this isn’t a November problem, but across the whole year)
I'm a little baffled about the decisions made by the people people who went for a dip. I'm very occasionally a sea swimmer, but never in anything like rough conditions.
The fatalities were at Budleigh Salterton, where conditions were - according to the BBC report - 10ft+ breaking waves, and the worst conditions for decades. The organiser of the local sea swimming group decided not to go in. And one account:
Mike Brown, 60, who has lived in Budleigh Salterton for nearly 30 years, said the sea conditions on Thursday were the "worst conditions" he had ever seen.
After entering the sea and being "unable to get out", Mr Brown said he only made it out with the help of "two very brave men" and sustained small injuries.
He said: "After successive waves crashing me into the stones, I managed to get into relatively shallow water, but I was spent.
"I had no energy left to stand and I'd taken a number of blows to the head.
I remember - as a maybe 12 or 13 year old lad swimming in the Aegean Sea. Absolutely beautiful. And two older Italian girls who were much further out kept waving at me to swim out to them.
I chickened out as I was so used to BEWARE OF THE SEA warnings from back home and the perils of the North Sea. But I've sometimes wondered if my young life would have taken a different turn, one way or another.
Bear in mind, of course, that the invasion is usually the easy part. Russia will have a long and expensive issue ruling over a bunch of people who would rather be part of the country next door. And occupation is usually economically ruinous.
There are brave prime continuing to resist Russia's occupation in Eastern and Southern Ukraine, but the evidence that emerged from Kherson after its liberation was that the Russians were prepared to do what was necessary to occupy a hostile country, and they're much better at that bloody business than the war-fighting end of things.
I think that the collective Western strategy means that continuing the war is a free hit for Putin. He does not have to fear overextending and pushing Russia past the point of endurance, because he knows Ukraine will be forced to accept a ceasefire whenever he feels the need to offer one.
Our actions and choices are therefore prolonging the war because we are minimising the risk of Russian defeat. Somehow we have to change the calculus. We need a change of strategy.
The reality of the Ukraine War is that the front lines have not moved very much in the last 18 months, and both Ukraine and Russia have lost enormous quantities of men and materiel. Russia has captures a small amount of territory - like the front lines have moved 15 miles or so, in some parts of the line. But they've also endured 4 or 5x the casualties Ukraine has, because they're attacking.
Russia continues to hope that one last push will see the Ukrainian lines collapse.
Ukraine keeps hoping Putin gets bumped off, or that the Russian economy collapses and that they lack the ability to continue offensive operations.
Ukraine is essentially obligated to say they want a cease fire, because failure to toe the line on that point risks Starlink being turned off, which would be a disaster for the Ukrainian war effort.
Putin believes Russia is closer to breakthrough than they are, because no one is telling him the truth.
The war will continue - imho - until either Ukraine's backers decide that they cannot afford to support the war (something likely precipitated by their allies gaining power in European capitals); or until the stresses on the Russian economy become intolerable, and Putin decides that what he has is enough to sell as a victory. (With more than a million people dead or invalided out, that will require quite a sales job.)
Bear in mind, of course, that the invasion is usually the easy part. Russia will have a long and expensive issue ruling over a bunch of people who would rather be part of the country next door. And occupation is usually economically ruinous.
To some extent both sides are hoping for a political wildcard to intervene in their favour, and Putin is probably most likely to be disappointed in that regard because even if Le Pen/Farage/AfD were elected in Western Europe, I don't think it would change the facts on the ground very much.
The change since August has been the use of domestically manufactured Ukrainian long-range drones destroying the Russian hydrocarbons secotr and more recently electricity generation/domestic heating capacity. These don't require international consent. Pretty much all capacity west of the Urals is now in range.
The next step-change will be when Ukraine gets the guidance system on the Flamingo missiles implemented. That could be any time now. They are stockpiling them until the change is implemented. When they fly, Russia could lose another 30% of its hydrocarbons - and hence its ability to fund the war - overnight.
I'm a little baffled about the decisions made by the people people who went for a dip. I'm very occasionally a sea swimmer, but never in anything like rough conditions.
The fatalities were at Budleigh Salterton, where conditions were - according to the BBC report - 10ft+ breaking waves, and the worst conditions for decades. The organiser of the local sea swimming group decided not to go in. And one account:
Mike Brown, 60, who has lived in Budleigh Salterton for nearly 30 years, said the sea conditions on Thursday were the "worst conditions" he had ever seen.
After entering the sea and being "unable to get out", Mr Brown said he only made it out with the help of "two very brave men" and sustained small injuries.
He said: "After successive waves crashing me into the stones, I managed to get into relatively shallow water, but I was spent.
"I had no energy left to stand and I'd taken a number of blows to the head.
Same as you - I'll jump in whenever an opportunity presents itself (including mountain pools), but not in conditions like this. I suspect group euphoria - there will have been quite a buzz and that can be infectious. It's like being drunk.
Yes - go fever is quite common. Especially in groups.
If you are smart, you have the conditions assessed by someone *who is not going out themselves* - this applies to rowing, sailing, paddle boarding, canoeing etc.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
I've long argued the current situation suits a lot of the players including Putin and Zelensky as it legitimises both of them in power.
The Russians, Ukrainians and others doing the fighting and dying are the losers but no one worries about them.
The entire defence industry, from analysts to manufacturers, has done very well out of this war. It has pushed itself up the political agenda and persuaded western Governments Russia is a military colossus equivalent to the Warsaw Pact (it can't even reach Kharkiv) and more public funds have to be thrown at defence meaning more weapons to be manufactured and sold and more defence analysts appearing on talk shows telling us what a threat Russia is and if you don't accept the argument they are a conventional military threat, the argument shifts to cyber warfare and how they could shut down the Internet.
The defence industry is also learning about how wars are fought in the first quarter of the 21st century, the power of drones to strike far beyond the frontlines, the vulnerability of armour etc, etc. That will shape defence strategies and scenarios for decades to come.
The arms manufacturers, whether State owned or private, have also done well with demand for their products, funding for R&D and Government approval - the last thing any of them want is peace.
I think this is very unfair on Zelensky and the many people in Europe and across the world who are thinking about the Ukrainians fighting to defend their freedom.
The threat to Europe is that if we let Russia win in Ukraine we'll have to fight the next war against Russia and Ukraine combined.
This is a war where the rights and wrongs are clear-cut.
Not only does Russia have no casus belli, the conduct of its soldiers is considerably worse than that of the Ukrainians.
Well quite.
War is always horrible, but this particular one as as clear-cut as they come between the good side and the bad side. Ukraine didn’t ask for war, and has conducted itself as well as can be expected under the circumstances. The Russians, to put it bluntly, have most definitely not.
Sadly I think there’s little prospect of it ending soon, despite the efforts of various negotiating teams, as Russia isn’t going to stop until their hand is forced by either an economic collapse or an inability to recruit more men for the meat grinder. I think it continues for most of next year, and the key country, as it always has been in this conflict, is China. Xi can pull support for Russia and the war ends pretty much overnight, but the Chinese think long term and likely have their eye on economically occupying huge swathes of Eastern Russia as the price for their support.
There are some awful economic numbers coming out of Russia at the moment, and curiously Russia seems to be cutting government spending in preference to increasing borrowing.
I think there's just a chance that Putin is preparing to call a truce, but that he's pushing things as far as he can to get as much as possible out of the agreement.
If you were wanting to deepen the divisions within the West I think a temporary truce could be advantageous. Trump will be keen to drop sanctions and to unfreeze Russian assets to skim off his percent. Meanwhile there will be divisions in Europe between those countries breathing a sigh of relief and wanting to forget about it all, and those still feeling some urgency to prepare for when Russia has another go.
And, ironically but tragically, Ukraine will be the moral victor but Russia will keep its captured territory and probably more, making it the actual victor, albeit at great cost.
Actual the moral victory is important.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
I think one key diagnostic is that it is Russia that is in control of whether the fighting stops. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire - with no conditions - back in March, and the fighting continues nine months later.
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
I disagree - for a ceasefire both sides need to stop fighting. Just being the last to stop doesn’t make you the victor.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
I didn't say it meant they had won, merely that they hadn't lost.
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
Ukraine lost this war about 18 months ago..most of the Western media and the posters on here just didn't realise it..🧐😚
That's not true either. Ukraine can still win, if they're provided with sufficient support, if they improve their training to spread doctrine from their best units and if China doesn't fully commit to Russia.
A lot of people have made definitive predictive statements about this war, which I think is totally mistaken. The outcome depends on choices that have yet to be made and on actions yet to be taken.
I think I would consider Ukraine to have "lost" this war if any territory remains out of their control having been taken by force - including Crimea. That doesn't necessarily reflect badly on the country/people/Zelensky - no shame in losing territory to a much bigger and richer neighbour (GDP per capita 2-3x higher).
That's why I am so suspicious of the language around a "peace" deal. Every part of Ukraine voted for independence from Russia; the subjugation of some parts of the country is a result of a long campaign of inteference, and the current war stems from a democratic decision by people in Ukraine to integrate more closely with the EU and its values. If the conflict concludes are current lines then we must reflect that we have allowed an enthusiastic ally and friend to be brutalised and permanently reduced, and that we must not allow that to happen elsewhere.
This is economic cataclysm: double-digit drops in Russian production of the vast majority of industrial goods from 2024 to 2025. (The tables below show this isn’t a November problem, but across the whole year)
The reality of the Ukraine War is that the front lines have not moved very much in the last 18 months, and both Ukraine and Russia have lost enormous quantities of men and materiel. Russia has captures a small amount of territory - like the front lines have moved 15 miles or so, in some parts of the line. But they've also endured 4 or 5x the casualties Ukraine has, because they're attacking.
Russia continues to hope that one last push will see the Ukrainian lines collapse.
Ukraine keeps hoping Putin gets bumped off, or that the Russian economy collapses and that they lack the ability to continue offensive operations.
Ukraine is essentially obligated to say they want a cease fire, because failure to toe the line on that point risks Starlink being turned off, which would be a disaster for the Ukrainian war effort.
Putin believes Russia is closer to breakthrough than they are, because no one is telling him the truth.
The war will continue - imho - until either Ukraine's backers decide that they cannot afford to support the war (something likely precipitated by their allies gaining power in European capitals); or until the stresses on the Russian economy become intolerable, and Putin decides that what he has is enough to sell as a victory. (With more than a million people dead or invalided out, that will require quite a sales job.)
Bear in mind, of course, that the invasion is usually the easy part. Russia will have a long and expensive issue ruling over a bunch of people who would rather be part of the country next door. And occupation is usually economically ruinous.
To some extent both sides are hoping for a political wildcard to intervene in their favour, and Putin is probably most likely to be disappointed in that regard because even if Le Pen/Farage/AfD were elected in Western Europe, I don't think it would change the facts on the ground very much.
The change since August has been the use of domestically manufactured Ukrainian long-range drones destroying the Russian hydrocarbons secotr and more recently electricity generation/domestic heating capacity. These don't require international consent. Pretty much all capacity west of the Urals is now in range.
The next step-change will be when Ukraine gets the guidance system on the Flamingo missiles implemented. That could be any time now. They are stockpiling them until the change is implemented. When they fly, Russia could lose another 30% of its hydrocarbons - and hence its ability to fund the war - overnight.
What guidance system change are you referring to? They are almost certainly using inertial with GPS/GLONASS/GALILEO/BDS combined for tightening the fix, right now.
Has Ukraine won yet as you were predicting as early as 2023?
Yep they’re winning.
50,000 dead Russians to not take Kupyansk, and 100,000 dead Russians to not take Pokrovsk.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
The only nations "winning" the SMO are the USA and China. Ukraine is a bankrupt ruin in political crisis. Russia and the EU are diminished. The UK are irrelevant, just rowing in on whatever the EU position is without any voice in shaping it.
Barring Ukraine running out of other people's money or the Farage of Kiev being toppled, the SMO will probably continue on its current trajectory for a while yet. Incremental, bloody gains by Russia and occasional PIRA style spectaculars by Ukraine. It'll all be over by next Christmas.
You are seriously saying that Zelensky and Putin are moral equivalents? Seriously equating Zelensky and Farage? That is, um, an "interesting" view.
Not just a wrong view, a highly offensive view.
Wrong and offensive is pretty much everything DA writes about Ukraine.
Still, in the spirit of Christmas, this site would be very boring if there weren't the odd weirdo, and I'm sure we all have at least one or two non-mainstream views.
I'm a little baffled about the decisions made by the people people who went for a dip. I'm very occasionally a sea swimmer, but never in anything like rough conditions.
The fatalities were at Budleigh Salterton, where conditions were - according to the BBC report - 10ft+ breaking waves, and the worst conditions for decades. The organiser of the local sea swimming group decided not to go in. And one account:
Mike Brown, 60, who has lived in Budleigh Salterton for nearly 30 years, said the sea conditions on Thursday were the "worst conditions" he had ever seen.
After entering the sea and being "unable to get out", Mr Brown said he only made it out with the help of "two very brave men" and sustained small injuries.
He said: "After successive waves crashing me into the stones, I managed to get into relatively shallow water, but I was spent.
"I had no energy left to stand and I'd taken a number of blows to the head.
People make poor choices. Perhaps the Christmas swim is one of their big things? Don’t want to miss it and it will be in and out in minutes. Like hillwalking/climbing you can escalate from poor choices to emergencies pretty quickly.
This is economic cataclysm: double-digit drops in Russian production of the vast majority of industrial goods from 2024 to 2025. (The tables below show this isn’t a November problem, but across the whole year)
You can keep up that kind of thing for quite a long time: let's not forget that Germany was at peak war production really remarkably late in the war - late 1944, six months after D-Day.
The issue is more that Putin has tried very hard to shield his population from the effects of the war. But he's currently facing a pretty nasty dilemma: is oil output exported abroad to pay the Chinese for the materiel he needs to persecute the war, but leave the domestic economy short? Or does he do the reverse?
There's apparently a seasonal cycle to Russian domestic fuel demand - it's lower in winter than in summer. Consequently the fuel station queues and shortages we saw a while ago have abated. Russian production can now cover Russian demand.
However, exports of refined fuel products are still banned, showing that refinery capacity has not recovered, so we can expect domestic shortages to reappear in the spring (unless the economic downturn reduces domestic demand).
This suggests that Putin will prioritise satisfying domestic demand over exporting for cash. He knows it is political important to do so, and the Russian budget still has some headroom to increase borrowing to pay for expenditure in place of oil export earnings. Which is just as well as the Ukrainians are going to make that choice for him and reduce the capacity for the Russians to export oil.
What's curious is that the Russian government increased borrowing this year, but they're currently cutting spending, and have a lot of cash on hand that they've raised from bond sales.
That makes me wonder about a change in policy. Although I suppose it could be stockpiling cash to be able to deal with the collapse in oil revenue expected with the predicted oil glut early next year.
The really important statistic out of Russia is the decline in food consumption. This speaks of a big decline in real spending power of the Russian population as a result of the economic difficulties. Lots of four-day working, coal miners facing wage arrears, etc.
Isn't it just Ashcroft that is showing a marked Reform decline? Some of the others are showing them continue to rise afaicr. I was surprised they were doing so well after the various shitstorms.
Reform are currently drifting down, Tories drifting up in parallel. On current trajectories by the middle of the year Tories, Reform and Greens meet at about 25% each, with Labour on about 15.
This matches the sense in the media that Tories are slightly recovering.
If I had to guess about 2029, I think that by then both Tories and Labour (who have not stared this journey back yet) will be back in numerically feeble but electorally fertile ground, Reform will have drifted down below Lab and Con, and their core support will be getting cross, the Greens drifting also, though currently they still have a bit of rising to do. LDs in 2029 as now in serious contention for up to 100 seats.
Lots of other scenarios are of course just as plausible.
Interesting report in the FT on the US Tomahawk strikes
The US military said in its initial assessment that “multiple” Isis members had been killed in the strikes on extremist “camps”.
"However, residents of Jabo professed surprise at the strikes, saying the bombs had landed in empty fields, causing no casualties, and that Jabo had been relatively shielded from violence. The last attack by militants had occurred two years ago, they said. Video footage on Nigerian television showed pieces of burnt metal in what looked like farmland.
One man told Arise News, a local television station: “Glory be to God, there was no loss of life.”"
Interesting report in the FT on the US Tomahawk strikes
The US military said in its initial assessment that “multiple” Isis members had been killed in the strikes on extremist “camps”.
"However, residents of Jabo professed surprise at the strikes, saying the bombs had landed in empty fields, causing no casualties, and that Jabo had been relatively shielded from violence. The last attack by militants had occurred two years ago, they said. Video footage on Nigerian television showed pieces of burnt metal in what looked like farmland.
One man told Arise News, a local television station: “Glory be to God, there was no loss of life.”"
This is economic cataclysm: double-digit drops in Russian production of the vast majority of industrial goods from 2024 to 2025. (The tables below show this isn’t a November problem, but across the whole year)
Putin has done quite well economically so far. Tsar Nicholas II, starting from a stronger base and facing much the same military situation,* lasted only three years and seven months before total economic and social collapse. Putin has got to three years nine months and is still going.
He's obviously confident he can keep the plates spinning for a while longer at least or he wouldn't be making so many crazy demands on Ukraine for peace, even allowing for his patsies like Witkoff and Vance being on the US team.
This data is therefore either wrong, or is not being shown to him. Both are possible.
*Imperial Germany was a more formidable military power than Ukraine, but was facing a war on two fronts which Ukraine is not.
I would say Trump is Ukraine's enemy on the "Western Front".
He hasn't actually sent soldiers against them yet.
Yebbut the way he treated Zelenskyy at the White House in February.
The reality of the Ukraine War is that the front lines have not moved very much in the last 18 months, and both Ukraine and Russia have lost enormous quantities of men and materiel. Russia has captures a small amount of territory - like the front lines have moved 15 miles or so, in some parts of the line. But they've also endured 4 or 5x the casualties Ukraine has, because they're attacking.
Russia continues to hope that one last push will see the Ukrainian lines collapse.
Ukraine keeps hoping Putin gets bumped off, or that the Russian economy collapses and that they lack the ability to continue offensive operations.
Ukraine is essentially obligated to say they want a cease fire, because failure to toe the line on that point risks Starlink being turned off, which would be a disaster for the Ukrainian war effort.
Putin believes Russia is closer to breakthrough than they are, because no one is telling him the truth.
The war will continue - imho - until either Ukraine's backers decide that they cannot afford to support the war (something likely precipitated by their allies gaining power in European capitals); or until the stresses on the Russian economy become intolerable, and Putin decides that what he has is enough to sell as a victory. (With more than a million people dead or invalided out, that will require quite a sales job.)
Bear in mind, of course, that the invasion is usually the easy part. Russia will have a long and expensive issue ruling over a bunch of people who would rather be part of the country next door. And occupation is usually economically ruinous.
To some extent both sides are hoping for a political wildcard to intervene in their favour, and Putin is probably most likely to be disappointed in that regard because even if Le Pen/Farage/AfD were elected in Western Europe, I don't think it would change the facts on the ground very much.
The change since August has been the use of domestically manufactured Ukrainian long-range drones destroying the Russian hydrocarbons secotr and more recently electricity generation/domestic heating capacity. These don't require international consent. Pretty much all capacity west of the Urals is now in range.
The next step-change will be when Ukraine gets the guidance system on the Flamingo missiles implemented. That could be any time now. They are stockpiling them until the change is implemented. When they fly, Russia could lose another 30% of its hydrocarbons - and hence its ability to fund the war - overnight.
The bottleneck on Flamingos is surely engines. They can rustle up some AI25s by stripping their L-139 fleet (which has zero other utility in the SMO) but then what?
I'm a little baffled about the decisions made by the people people who went for a dip. I'm very occasionally a sea swimmer, but never in anything like rough conditions.
The fatalities were at Budleigh Salterton, where conditions were - according to the BBC report - 10ft+ breaking waves, and the worst conditions for decades. The organiser of the local sea swimming group decided not to go in. And one account:
Mike Brown, 60, who has lived in Budleigh Salterton for nearly 30 years, said the sea conditions on Thursday were the "worst conditions" he had ever seen.
After entering the sea and being "unable to get out", Mr Brown said he only made it out with the help of "two very brave men" and sustained small injuries.
He said: "After successive waves crashing me into the stones, I managed to get into relatively shallow water, but I was spent.
"I had no energy left to stand and I'd taken a number of blows to the head.
People make poor choices. Perhaps the Christmas swim is one of their big things? Don’t want to miss it and it will be in and out in minutes. Like hillwalking/climbing you can escalate from poor choices to emergencies pretty quickly.
One ought, in my view, occasionally do things that can kill you if they go wrong.
Thousands of people will have swum in pretty atrocious conditions on Christmas Day. Most will not have had any idea how dangerous their choices were. All but two will have added to their Christmas cheer with a rather boorish tale to be shared in the ad break for the obligatory Christmas film later in the day.
A utilitarian would probably argue the two deaths were worth it, in the grand scheme of things.
I'd certainly argue the world would be a worse place if we didn't have people willing to dive into waves that could kill them.
Interesting report in the FT on the US Tomahawk strikes
The US military said in its initial assessment that “multiple” Isis members had been killed in the strikes on extremist “camps”.
"However, residents of Jabo professed surprise at the strikes, saying the bombs had landed in empty fields, causing no casualties, and that Jabo had been relatively shielded from violence. The last attack by militants had occurred two years ago, they said. Video footage on Nigerian television showed pieces of burnt metal in what looked like farmland.
One man told Arise News, a local television station: “Glory be to God, there was no loss of life.”"
Comments
https://www.gbnews.com/money/rachel-reeves-mansion-tax-inflate-house-prices
This, in turn, was based on information they'd obtained from Russia. The Russians thought they had bribed/subverted the majority of the Ukrainian elite. But most of them had gone straight to Ukrainian intelligence. So the Russians thought they'd won before the'd started.
On the flip side the Ukrainians had the Russian plans - the failed airport bridgehead, for example, was supposed to be in conjunction with the managers of the airport, and the local military commanders. Who instead, massacred the Russia paratroopers.
And any broader strategic reckoning can’t just look at territory. The cost in blood, the economic dislocation, and the lapse into wholesale dependency on China must be accounted for.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AU0Urn-lX_s
If Putin genuinely declared a ceasefire then the fighting stops tomorrow.
It's an uncomfortable lesson, but I think it demonstrates that Russia has the upper hand. And this is because Ukraine has not been provided with sufficient assistance to turn the tide.
It is dangerous to deceive ourselves that Russia has "really" lost.
Which they saw as only annoying Russia and damaging the post war trade that would happen while everyone tut-tutted about how bad Russia had been.
Otherwise the black knights who said Ni would be declared the winners…
If Ukraine had the upper hand it wouldn't be so desperate for a ceasefire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yh56T11dhzQ
Russia now controls far less land in Ukraine than it did one month into the war.
https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3mavup5xf3k23
#pedanticbetting.com.
Meanwhile Labour's year and a half long decline shows no signs that it has hit the floor. The Wacky Zacky Party mopping up the disaffected Trots and their fellow travellers.
Much as I would be delighted were RefUK going down the drain, it is marginal, and not enough to make much of a dent. Given the Elections due in the spring, it needs more wheels to fall off the clown car, and be seen to have fallen off, before imo we can call "peak" rather than "possible point of inflection".
And that link is to the "Robespierre" commentary on Curtice, rather than the original (which I'm not surte i can find on Times Radio).
Stalin got to the River Elbe.
Lenin got to Warsaw.*
Putin hasn't quite got to Kupyansk.
*Yes, I know he then had to retreat and lost the war.
Russia continues to hope that one last push will see the Ukrainian lines collapse.
Ukraine keeps hoping Putin gets bumped off, or that the Russian economy collapses and that they lack the ability to continue offensive operations.
Ukraine is essentially obligated to say they want a cease fire, because failure to toe the line on that point risks Starlink being turned off, which would be a disaster for the Ukrainian war effort.
Putin believes Russia is closer to breakthrough than they are, because no one is telling him the truth.
The war will continue - imho - until either Ukraine's backers decide that they cannot afford to support the war (something likely precipitated by Russia's allies gaining power in European capitals); or until the stresses on the Russian economy become intolerable, and Putin decides that what he has is enough to sell as a victory. (With more than a million people dead or invalided out, that will require quite a sales job.)
Bear in mind, of course, that the invasion is usually the easy part. Russia will have a long and expensive issue ruling over a bunch of people who would rather be part of the country next door. And occupation is usually economically ruinous.
https://bsky.app/profile/rentouljohn.bsky.social/post/3majmkgfwi22c
In a forced choice Badenoch narrowly beats Starmer, but Starmer decisively beats Farage with 40% of Con voters favouring Starmer over Farage.
Someone has a sense of humour.
I hope those who followed my earlier racing suggestions had a few quid on IDAHO SUN and BANBRIDGE each way - the latter should have won the King George and it's strange how a £20 each way bet at 20/1 feels like a loser....
My comments on Ukraine this morning ruffled a few feathers - no, @tlg86, they are NOT Liberal Democrat policy and if all you have is a cheap jibe, leave the debating to the grown ups.
They aren't my opinion either - Russia committed an unconscionable act of aggression and the global response should have been as it was when Saddam invaded Kuwait in August 1990 and the fact it wasn't speaks volumes as to where we have gone since those heady post-Berlin Wall days.
What I offered wasn't opinion but the truth of where we are, as I see it. From early on, I've asked how this ends and there are only three options:
1) The political or military collapse of the Ukraine leaving Russia in control of all or most of the country.
2) The political or military collapse of Russia with Putin ousted and a new administration withdrawing from Ukraine.
3) A negotiated settlement leaving a peacekeeping force in control of a "buffer zone" between the Russian-ruled Donbas and the rest of Ukraine. The sight of Brazilian or Nigerian forces moving up and down the streets of Lukhansk or Donetsk might seem far fetched but if someone pays the bills for them being there (Europe?), it might work.
3) is the most likely now but 1) and 2) aren't wholly inconceivable. The other part of peace will be the humanitarian diaspora of Ukrainians to the west and Russians to the east which will need to be managed and administered. It's also far from certain the "peace" will bring about anything approaching a political solution though the movement of people might (it usually does).
Of course, I say that but the real game changer for Putin would be if Trump is replaced by Vance, who makes Aldrich Ames look anti-Russian.
I expect Labour and Tories to haemorrhage councillors in May, PC to take Wales as minority govt, and for SNP to cling on at Holyrood.
I am not sure how much that tells us about the 2029 GE.
"Ukraine lost this war about 18 months ago..most of the Western media and the posters on here just didn't realise it..🧐😚"
Ukraine's best hope is that he is permanently incapacitated.
In the medium term the collapse/replacement of Putin does offer that possibility, but more likely another Great Russian nationalist takes over.
A democratic, free market Ukraine that looks to NATO and the EU will always look a threat to Russia because it exposes everything Russia is not.
https://jerripedia.theislandwiki.org/index.php/Russians_in_the_Channel_Islands
This is economic cataclysm: double-digit drops in Russian production of the vast majority of industrial goods from 2024 to 2025. (The tables below show this isn’t a November problem, but across the whole year)
https://x.com/OliverCooper/status/2004646367910584709?s=20
He's obviously confident he can keep the plates spinning for a while longer at least or he wouldn't be making so many crazy demands on Ukraine for peace, even allowing for his patsies like Witkoff and Vance being on the US team.
This data is therefore either wrong, or is not being shown to him. Both are possible.
*Imperial Germany was a more formidable military power than Ukraine, but was facing a war on two fronts which Ukraine is not.
I'm a little baffled about the decisions made by the people people who went for a dip. I'm very occasionally a sea swimmer, but never in anything like rough conditions.
The fatalities were at Budleigh Salterton, where conditions were - according to the BBC report - 10ft+ breaking waves, and the worst conditions for decades. The organiser of the local sea swimming group decided not to go in. And one account:
Mike Brown, 60, who has lived in Budleigh Salterton for nearly 30 years, said the sea conditions on Thursday were the "worst conditions" he had ever seen.
After entering the sea and being "unable to get out", Mr Brown said he only made it out with the help of "two very brave men" and sustained small injuries.
He said: "After successive waves crashing me into the stones, I managed to get into relatively shallow water, but I was spent.
"I had no energy left to stand and I'd taken a number of blows to the head.
"These two men without any concern for their own safety waded in to help me."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrn84d0k82o
The issue is more that Putin has tried very hard to shield his population from the effects of the war. But he's currently facing a pretty nasty dilemma: is oil output exported abroad to pay the Chinese for the materiel he needs to persecute the war, but leave the domestic economy short? Or does he do the reverse?
Just saying.
https://x.com/_boldpolitics/status/2004648091757281766
A lot of people have made definitive predictive statements about this war, which I think is totally mistaken. The outcome depends on choices that have yet to be made and on actions yet to be taken.
(Too soon?)
It's quite hard to impress a tidal river, let alone the sea.
The November Revolution arguably took three years.
I chickened out as I was so used to BEWARE OF THE SEA warnings from back home and the perils of the North Sea. But I've sometimes wondered if my young life would have taken a different turn, one way or another.
I think that the collective Western strategy means that continuing the war is a free hit for Putin. He does not have to fear overextending and pushing Russia past the point of endurance, because he knows Ukraine will be forced to accept a ceasefire whenever he feels the need to offer one.
Our actions and choices are therefore prolonging the war because we are minimising the risk of Russian defeat. Somehow we have to change the calculus. We need a change of strategy.
The next step-change will be when Ukraine gets the guidance system on the Flamingo missiles implemented. That could be any time now. They are stockpiling them until the change is implemented. When they fly, Russia could lose another 30% of its hydrocarbons - and hence its ability to fund the war - overnight.
If you are smart, you have the conditions assessed by someone *who is not going out themselves* - this applies to rowing, sailing, paddle boarding, canoeing etc.
This may seem boring, but it keeps the RNLI dry.
That's why I am so suspicious of the language around a "peace" deal. Every part of Ukraine voted for independence from Russia; the subjugation of some parts of the country is a result of a long campaign of inteference, and the current war stems from a democratic decision by people in Ukraine to integrate more closely with the EU and its values. If the conflict concludes are current lines then we must reflect that we have allowed an enthusiastic ally and friend to be brutalised and permanently reduced, and that we must not allow that to happen elsewhere.
Still, in the spirit of Christmas, this site would be very boring if there weren't the odd weirdo, and I'm sure we all have at least one or two non-mainstream views.
Glory to Ukraine.
Like hillwalking/climbing you can escalate from poor choices to emergencies pretty quickly.
However, exports of refined fuel products are still banned, showing that refinery capacity has not recovered, so we can expect domestic shortages to reappear in the spring (unless the economic downturn reduces domestic demand).
This suggests that Putin will prioritise satisfying domestic demand over exporting for cash. He knows it is political important to do so, and the Russian budget still has some headroom to increase borrowing to pay for expenditure in place of oil export earnings. Which is just as well as the Ukrainians are going to make that choice for him and reduce the capacity for the Russians to export oil.
What's curious is that the Russian government increased borrowing this year, but they're currently cutting spending, and have a lot of cash on hand that they've raised from bond sales.
That makes me wonder about a change in policy. Although I suppose it could be stockpiling cash to be able to deal with the collapse in oil revenue expected with the predicted oil glut early next year.
The really important statistic out of Russia is the decline in food consumption. This speaks of a big decline in real spending power of the Russian population as a result of the economic difficulties. Lots of four-day working, coal miners facing wage arrears, etc.
This matches the sense in the media that Tories are slightly recovering.
If I had to guess about 2029, I think that by then both Tories and Labour (who have not stared this journey back yet) will be back in numerically feeble but electorally fertile ground, Reform will have drifted down below Lab and Con, and their core support will be getting cross, the Greens drifting also, though currently they still have a bit of rising to do. LDs in 2029 as now in serious contention for up to 100 seats.
Lots of other scenarios are of course just as plausible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_(post-2024).svg
The US military said in its initial assessment that “multiple” Isis members had been killed in the strikes on extremist “camps”.
"However, residents of Jabo professed surprise at the strikes, saying the bombs had landed in empty fields, causing no casualties, and that Jabo had been relatively shielded from violence. The last attack by militants had occurred two years ago, they said. Video footage on Nigerian television showed pieces of burnt metal in what looked like farmland.
One man told Arise News, a local television station: “Glory be to God, there was no loss of life.”"
https://bsky.app/profile/financialtimes.com/post/3mavvw2ckgf23
If anyone has any doubts as to how cowardly in the face of Russia Trump was.
Thousands of people will have swum in pretty atrocious conditions on Christmas Day. Most will not have had any idea how dangerous their choices were. All but two will have added to their Christmas cheer with a rather boorish tale to be shared in the ad break for the obligatory Christmas film later in the day.
A utilitarian would probably argue the two deaths were worth it, in the grand scheme of things.
I'd certainly argue the world would be a worse place if we didn't have people willing to dive into waves that could kill them.
The question is surely how many posts, articles and podcasts that would have been about Epstein and Trump are now about Nigeria instead.